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000
FXUS64 KLUB 250449
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS VEER
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S TSTM ACTIVITY AND TODAY/S GUSTY
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS BROAD
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN OUT WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND QUICKLY TO THE ENTIRE CWFA AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO
OUR WEST.

MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT RAPID ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY
INTENSE. IN FACT THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN MAY VERY WELL EXIST IN
THE MID LEVELS OUT EAST THUS BRINGING WITH IT A RISK OF VIRGA
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BENEATH. THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER-MAKER
WILL LIKELY BE PROSPECTS FOR ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GENERALLY WEST OF A POST TO MEMPHIS LINE. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL. OTHERWISE...A
BREEZY...WARM...AND SUNNY WEST TEXAS DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
A THREAT OF VIRGA SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON FRIDAY AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK WEST AND MOISTURE
SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOISTURE WILL MAKE A COMEBACK IN ADVANCE OF
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT COMES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
LATE ON SATURDAY. THIS MEANS TIMING WILL NOT BE IDEAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS DO NOT COME OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING TIMING WILL NOT HAVE GREAT INTERACTION
WITH THE DRYLINE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT MAX OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MOISTURE WILL HOLD
ON IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM 00-06Z WITH THE
DRYLINE RETREATING AND INTERACTING WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE IS STILL UNCERTAIN
THE TENDENCY IS FOR THE DRYLINE TO MOVE FARTHER WESTWARD THAN WHAT
THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN DEPICTING. THE ECMWF PLACEMENT AROUND THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS FAVORED GIVEN AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH. ANALOG GUIDANCE ALSO
FAVORS ARE MORE WESTWARD PLACEMENT TO THE DRYLINE. HIGH CAPES
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
STORMS. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO COMBINE WITH INCREASING SHEAR WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEADING TO
POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE JET CORES ALOFT
WILL MISS THE REGION WITH THE 250/500MB MAXIMUMS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE MEXMOS IS DEPICTING MUCH MORE INCREDIBLE SPEEDS THAN
THE ECMWF ALTHOUGH BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY EITHER WAY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 PCT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
20 FT WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LIMITED FUELS ARE
NOT OVERLY VOLATILE AT THIS TIME. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE
GRASS WILL NOT BURN IF IGNITED...BUT THUS FAR THIS SPRING...WE
HAVE SEEN SCANT FEW FIRES EVEN WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL THEREFORE ELECT TO
NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...THUS
CHOOSING TO PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON GREATER THREAT INTO SATURDAY.

INCREASINGLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL CAUSE A DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND A
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  48  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         74  49  86  54  89 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     76  51  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  51  87  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       77  52  87  60  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   78  52  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    78  52  87  59  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  52  87  61  92 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          81  53  87  60  92 /   0   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     80  54  87  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 242317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND A
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE FRONT
RANGE. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY MID FRIDAY
MORNING...BECOMING SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30
KNOTS. ONLY SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S TSTM ACTIVITY AND TODAY/S GUSTY
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS BROAD
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN OUT WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND QUICKLY TO THE ENTIRE CWFA AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO
OUR WEST.

MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT RAPID ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY
INTENSE. IN FACT THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN MAY VERY WELL EXIST IN
THE MID LEVELS OUT EAST THUS BRINGING WITH IT A RISK OF VIRGA
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BENEATH. THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER-MAKER
WILL LIKELY BE PROSPECTS FOR ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GENERALLY WEST OF A POST TO MEMPHIS LINE. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL. OTHERWISE...A
BREEZY...WARM...AND SUNNY WEST TEXAS DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
A THREAT OF VIRGA SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON FRIDAY AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK WEST AND MOISTURE
SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOISTURE WILL MAKE A COMEBACK IN ADVANCE OF
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT COMES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
LATE ON SATURDAY. THIS MEANS TIMING WILL NOT BE IDEAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS DO NOT COME OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING TIMING WILL NOT HAVE GREAT INTERACTION
WITH THE DRYLINE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT MAX OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MOISTURE WILL HOLD
ON IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM 00-06Z WITH THE
DRYLINE RETREATING AND INTERACTING WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE IS STILL UNCERTAIN
THE TENDENCY IS FOR THE DRYLINE TO MOVE FARTHER WESTWARD THAN WHAT
THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN DEPICTING. THE ECMWF PLACEMENT AROUND THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS FAVORED GIVEN AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH. ANALOG GUIDANCE ALSO
FAVORS ARE MORE WESTWARD PLACEMENT TO THE DRYLINE. HIGH CAPES
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
STORMS. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO COMBINE WITH INCREASING SHEAR WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEADING TO
POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE JET CORES ALOFT
WILL MISS THE REGION WITH THE 250/500MB MAXIMUMS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE MEXMOS IS DEPICTING MUCH MORE INCREDIBLE SPEEDS THAN
THE ECMWF ALTHOUGH BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY EITHER WAY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 PCT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
20 FT WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LIMITED FUELS ARE
NOT OVERLY VOLATILE AT THIS TIME. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE
GRASS WILL NOT BURN IF IGNITED...BUT THUS FAR THIS SPRING...WE
HAVE SEEN SCANT FEW FIRES EVEN WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL THEREFORE ELECT TO
NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...THUS
CHOOSING TO PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON GREATER THREAT INTO SATURDAY.

INCREASINGLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL CAUSE A DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND A
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  84  50  86  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         49  86  54  89  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  86  57  89  52 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     51  87  58  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       52  87  60  90  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   52  86  57  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    52  87  59  90  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     52  87  61  92  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
SPUR          53  87  60  92  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     54  87  64  93  62 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 241945
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
245 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S TSTM ACTIVITY AND TODAY/S GUSTY
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS BROAD
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. AS WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN OUT WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EXPAND QUICKLY TO THE ENTIRE CWFA AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO
OUR WEST.

MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT RAPID ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY
INTENSE. IN FACT THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN MAY VERY WELL EXIST IN
THE MID LEVELS OUT EAST THUS BRINGING WITH IT A RISK OF VIRGA
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS BENEATH. THE MORE IMPORTANT WEATHER-MAKER
WILL LIKELY BE PROSPECTS FOR ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GENERALLY WEST OF A POST TO MEMPHIS LINE. SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL. OTHERWISE...A
BREEZY...WARM...AND SUNNY WEST TEXAS DAY IS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A THREAT OF VIRGA SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON FRIDAY AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK WEST AND MOISTURE
SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...MOISTURE WILL MAKE A COMEBACK IN ADVANCE OF
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT COMES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
LATE ON SATURDAY. THIS MEANS TIMING WILL NOT BE IDEAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUMS DO NOT COME OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING TIMING WILL NOT HAVE GREAT INTERACTION
WITH THE DRYLINE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT MAX OUT UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MOISTURE WILL HOLD
ON IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FROM 00-06Z WITH THE
DRYLINE RETREATING AND INTERACTING WITH THE PACIFIC FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE IS STILL UNCERTAIN
THE TENDENCY IS FOR THE DRYLINE TO MOVE FARTHER WESTWARD THAN WHAT
THE GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN DEPICTING. THE ECMWF PLACEMENT AROUND THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS FAVORED GIVEN AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH. ANALOG GUIDANCE ALSO
FAVORS ARE MORE WESTWARD PLACEMENT TO THE DRYLINE. HIGH CAPES
EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
STORMS. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO COMBINE WITH INCREASING SHEAR WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY LEADING TO
POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE JET CORES ALOFT
WILL MISS THE REGION WITH THE 250/500MB MAXIMUMS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THE MEXMOS IS DEPICTING MUCH MORE INCREDIBLE SPEEDS THAN
THE ECMWF ALTHOUGH BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY EITHER WAY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 PCT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH
20 FT WINDS NEAR 20 MPH...CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LIMITED FUELS ARE
NOT OVERLY VOLATILE AT THIS TIME. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE
GRASS WILL NOT BURN IF IGNITED...BUT THUS FAR THIS SPRING...WE
HAVE SEEN SCANT FEW FIRES EVEN WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL THEREFORE ELECT TO
NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...THUS
CHOOSING TO PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON GREATER THREAT INTO SATURDAY.

INCREASINGLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
OBSERVED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL CAUSE A DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND A
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
APPROACHING SYSTEM LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  84  50  86  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         49  86  54  89  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  86  57  89  52 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     51  87  58  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       52  87  60  90  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   52  86  57  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    52  87  59  90  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     52  87  61  92  58 /   0   0   0  20  30
SPUR          53  87  60  92  58 /   0   0  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     54  87  64  93  62 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

26/01







000
FXUS64 KLUB 241659
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTN.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH NWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY
15Z. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS THE 40-50 MPH GUSTS SEEN ACROSS ERN COLORADO AS THE FRONT
PASSED THERE. SFC ANALYSES SHOW PRESSURE RISES DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH MODELS SHOWING A FURTHER DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE RISES MOVING SWD. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. WINDS TO COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL RUN NEAR COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DRY AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED REALM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND UNDERGOES
SLOW FILLING. ALREADY BY FRIDAY...MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL BE
FOUND ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HELP DEFINE A
DRYLINE ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
LARGELY SCANT INSTABILITY FROM THIS PREMATURE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS STORY SHOULD CHANGE BY SAT AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE EFFECTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ARE FELT OVER THE WHOLE
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CONCERN SAT AFTN IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DEEP MIXING ALONE ON THE
DRYLINE IS USUALLY NOT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY
MAINTAIN STORMS. IDEALLY WE PREFER TO SEE BACKGROUND SUPPORT OR
OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER MODELS DO SHOW SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS BY 00Z THAT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A LOW-END COVERAGE OF
STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTN. AM BIASING THE AFTERNOON/S DRYLINE
POSITION A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND GFS WOULD HAVE US
BELIEVE GIVEN BACKING UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE DAY AND PRESSURE
FALLS BULLSEYEING TO OUR WEST.

OTHERWISE...THE BETTER BET FOR STORMS SHOULD EMERGE SAT NIGHT AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS NEAR/ONTO THE CAPROCK AND COLLIDES WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT. THESE SETUPS ARE NOT ALWAYS A GUARANTEE THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...BUT CONSIDERING WE HAVE A DEEPENING NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
ALONG WITH RICH PWATS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...THE PROS OUTWEIGH THE
CONS FOR A ROUND OF STRONG /IF NOT SEVERE/ NOCTURNAL STORMS. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT DARE RETREAT THE DRYLINE
AGGRESSIVELY IN THIS PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...BUT WE NEED ONLY LOOK
BACK TO THE EVENING OF 4/14/2012 WHEN THE GFS AND NAM FAILED
MISERABLY TO ANTICIPATE A STRONG WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE
IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.

THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
AHEAD INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO
TREND WINDS HIGHER BY SUN AFTN...BUT THESE SPEEDS ARE STILL SHORT
OF THE STRONGEST VALUES PROGGED BY MEX. THE WEAKER ECMWF MOS WOULD
BE NICE IF IT VERIFIED...BUT THE PATTERN OF A DEEPENING LOW TO
OUR NORTH AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SUGGEST OTHERWISE. HIGH WIND
CRITERIA MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 700MB AND 500MB AVERAGE JET
CORES ARE NOT ENTIRELY UP TO THEIR RESPECTIVE 60 KNOT AND 100 KNOT
SPEEDS WE TYPICALLY LOOK FOR...BUT THE GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL
IN THIS REGARD AND SUGGESTS OUR NWRN COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE. BLOWING DUST IS A GIVEN REGARDLESS
OF WHAT MODEL ONE USES. THIS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THEN VEERS NORTHERLY
BY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW...BUT WE/RE NOT
YET INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AS PROGGED BY THE
GFS FROM MON-WED...SO A BREEZY COMPROMISE WITH THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  45  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         74  44  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     76  48  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  50  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       77  50  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   78  50  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    78  51  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  88  61  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          81  52  89  60  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     80  50  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 241120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. MODEST REDUCTIONS IN VSBY
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS BLDU SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE NOT TOO FAR
INTO FCST PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY THROUGH MID AFTN
WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BEFORE VEERING TO SE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH NWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY
15Z. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS THE 40-50 MPH GUSTS SEEN ACROSS ERN COLORADO AS THE FRONT
PASSED THERE. SFC ANALYSES SHOW PRESSURE RISES DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH MODELS SHOWING A FURTHER DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE RISES MOVING SWD. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. WINDS TO COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL RUN NEAR COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DRY AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED REALM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND UNDERGOES
SLOW FILLING. ALREADY BY FRIDAY...MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL BE
FOUND ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HELP DEFINE A
DRYLINE ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
LARGELY SCANT INSTABILITY FROM THIS PREMATURE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS STORY SHOULD CHANGE BY SAT AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE EFFECTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ARE FELT OVER THE WHOLE
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CONCERN SAT AFTN IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DEEP MIXING ALONE ON THE
DRYLINE IS USUALLY NOT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY
MAINTAIN STORMS. IDEALLY WE PREFER TO SEE BACKGROUND SUPPORT OR
OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER MODELS DO SHOW SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS BY 00Z THAT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A LOW-END COVERAGE OF
STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTN. AM BIASING THE AFTERNOON/S DRYLINE
POSITION A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND GFS WOULD HAVE US
BELIEVE GIVEN BACKING UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE DAY AND PRESSURE
FALLS BULLSEYEING TO OUR WEST.

OTHERWISE...THE BETTER BET FOR STORMS SHOULD EMERGE SAT NIGHT AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS NEAR/ONTO THE CAPROCK AND COLLIDES WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT. THESE SETUPS ARE NOT ALWAYS A GUARANTEE THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...BUT CONSIDERING WE HAVE A DEEPENING NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
ALONG WITH RICH PWATS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...THE PROS OUTWEIGH THE
CONS FOR A ROUND OF STRONG /IF NOT SEVERE/ NOCTURNAL STORMS. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT DARE RETREAT THE DRYLINE
AGGRESSIVELY IN THIS PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...BUT WE NEED ONLY LOOK
BACK TO THE EVENING OF 4/14/2012 WHEN THE GFS AND NAM FAILED
MISERABLY TO ANTICIPATE A STRONG WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE
IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.

THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
AHEAD INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO
TREND WINDS HIGHER BY SUN AFTN...BUT THESE SPEEDS ARE STILL SHORT
OF THE STRONGEST VALUES PROGGED BY MEX. THE WEAKER ECMWF MOS WOULD
BE NICE IF IT VERIFIED...BUT THE PATTERN OF A DEEPENING LOW TO
OUR NORTH AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SUGGEST OTHERWISE. HIGH WIND
CRITERIA MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 700MB AND 500MB AVERAGE JET
CORES ARE NOT ENTIRELY UP TO THEIR RESPECTIVE 60 KNOT AND 100 KNOT
SPEEDS WE TYPICALLY LOOK FOR...BUT THE GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL
IN THIS REGARD AND SUGGESTS OUR NWRN COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE. BLOWING DUST IS A GIVEN REGARDLESS
OF WHAT MODEL ONE USES. THIS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THEN VEERS NORTHERLY
BY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW...BUT WE/RE NOT
YET INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AS PROGGED BY THE
GFS FROM MON-WED...SO A BREEZY COMPROMISE WITH THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  45  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         74  44  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     76  48  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  50  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       77  50  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   78  50  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    78  51  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  88  61  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          81  52  89  60  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     80  50  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 240938
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WITH NWLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT RESULTING IN
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY
15Z. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
AS HIGH AS THE 40-50 MPH GUSTS SEEN ACROSS ERN COLORADO AS THE FRONT
PASSED THERE. SFC ANALYSES SHOW PRESSURE RISES DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH MODELS SHOWING A FURTHER DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF
PRESSURE RISES MOVING SWD. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. WINDS TO COME BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT BUT REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. WILL RUN NEAR COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH DRY AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED REALM CONTINUES TO FEATURE A POWERFUL NEGATIVE TILT
TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST AND UNDERGOES
SLOW FILLING. ALREADY BY FRIDAY...MODIFIED RETURN FLOW WILL BE
FOUND ADVECTING NORTH INTO THE REGION AND SHOULD HELP DEFINE A
DRYLINE ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
LARGELY SCANT INSTABILITY FROM THIS PREMATURE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT BODE WELL FOR PRECIP CHANCES COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS STORY SHOULD CHANGE BY SAT AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE EFFECTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ARE FELT OVER THE WHOLE
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE CONCERN SAT AFTN IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. DEEP MIXING ALONE ON THE
DRYLINE IS USUALLY NOT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY
MAINTAIN STORMS. IDEALLY WE PREFER TO SEE BACKGROUND SUPPORT OR
OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES...HOWEVER MODELS DO SHOW SUBTLE HEIGHT
FALLS BY 00Z THAT COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A LOW-END COVERAGE OF
STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTN. AM BIASING THE AFTERNOON/S DRYLINE
POSITION A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN THE NAM AND GFS WOULD HAVE US
BELIEVE GIVEN BACKING UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE DAY AND PRESSURE
FALLS BULLSEYEING TO OUR WEST.

OTHERWISE...THE BETTER BET FOR STORMS SHOULD EMERGE SAT NIGHT AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS NEAR/ONTO THE CAPROCK AND COLLIDES WITH A PACIFIC
FRONT. THESE SETUPS ARE NOT ALWAYS A GUARANTEE THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...BUT CONSIDERING WE HAVE A DEEPENING NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
ALONG WITH RICH PWATS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...THE PROS OUTWEIGH THE
CONS FOR A ROUND OF STRONG /IF NOT SEVERE/ NOCTURNAL STORMS. ECMWF
AND GEM ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT DARE RETREAT THE DRYLINE
AGGRESSIVELY IN THIS PATTERN BY SAT NIGHT...BUT WE NEED ONLY LOOK
BACK TO THE EVENING OF 4/14/2012 WHEN THE GFS AND NAM FAILED
MISERABLY TO ANTICIPATE A STRONG WESTWARD ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE
IN A SIMILAR PATTERN.

THE PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
AHEAD INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WESTERLY FLOW. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO
TREND WINDS HIGHER BY SUN AFTN...BUT THESE SPEEDS ARE STILL SHORT
OF THE STRONGEST VALUES PROGGED BY MEX. THE WEAKER ECMWF MOS WOULD
BE NICE IF IT VERIFIED...BUT THE PATTERN OF A DEEPENING LOW TO
OUR NORTH AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW SUGGEST OTHERWISE. HIGH WIND
CRITERIA MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 700MB AND 500MB AVERAGE JET
CORES ARE NOT ENTIRELY UP TO THEIR RESPECTIVE 60 KNOT AND 100 KNOT
SPEEDS WE TYPICALLY LOOK FOR...BUT THE GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL
IN THIS REGARD AND SUGGESTS OUR NWRN COUNTIES COULD SEE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE. BLOWING DUST IS A GIVEN REGARDLESS
OF WHAT MODEL ONE USES. THIS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THEN VEERS NORTHERLY
BY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW...BUT WE/RE NOT
YET INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS AS PROGGED BY THE
GFS FROM MON-WED...SO A BREEZY COMPROMISE WITH THE ECMWF IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  45  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         74  44  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     76  48  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  50  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       77  50  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   78  50  87  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    78  51  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  88  61  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          81  52  89  60  90 /   0   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     80  50  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93







000
FXUS64 KLUB 240456
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1156 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
15-20 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE
VEERING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE VEERING NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DESPITE THE DRYLINE LINGERING ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY DEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS AND DROP THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN OUR CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  77  53  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 240247 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
947 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DESPITE THE DRYLINE LINGERING ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY DEEP NOCTURNAL INVERSION. WE HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS AND DROP THE REMAINING COUNTIES OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN OUR CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
THE THREAT OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO END AT KCDS SHORTLY AFTER 00
UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A TIME BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  77  53  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 232343
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
643 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THE THREAT OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO END AT KCDS SHORTLY AFTER 00
UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A TIME BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  77  53  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  40   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 232046
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FIRST LEAD WAVE HAS LARGELY DONE MADE ITS IMPACT AHEAD OF MAIN
TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS OUT NEAR THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AT
MID-DAY.  AREA OF MODEST DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON.  TSTMS STILL EXPECTED TO FIRE OUT EAST WITH HAIL /TO GOLF
BALLS/ AND WIND /60 PLUS MPH/ THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS ORIENTED SW/NE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING.  IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE INITIATION TIME GIVEN
THE NEBULOUS NATURE OF THE DRYLINE THOUGH THE EASTWARD MIX HAS BEGUN
IN EARNEST.  THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHICH ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
A DRYLINE BULGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST RISK
WITH A TRAILING MCS POSSIBLE DOWN THE DRYLINE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL BE AN
IMPORTANT FACTOR IN JUST HOW LONG THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND
THERE IS SOME SMALL RISK THAT INCREASING MOISTURE IN A BACKED WIND
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT INVOF
KCDS.  THEREAFTER...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  WILL STILL REMAIN 10-15
PCT POPS OUT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TRENDING SHARPLY DOWN THEREAFTER AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SKIES CLEARING
NICELY.  OVERALL...A NICE SPRING DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY REMAINS UNLIKELY BUT CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN
ZERO. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT CONVECTS ON FRIDAY
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FEW FACTORS GOING FOR IT
WILL BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE. A PRONOUNCED
LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS WILL EXIST INTO THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO THE NAM. ANALOG GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY
INDICATES A FEW PREVIOUS SEVERE EVENTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION. NEUTRAL
HEIGHT CHANGES WILL BE OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN RIDGING ALOFT AND A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING OUT ON THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WITH A FURIOUSLY DEEPENING SYSTEM.
AT THE MOMENT...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST OF THE ANTICIPATED
SEVERE EVENTS WILL EVADE THE FA BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS STAND THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DEEPEN AROUND 250M IN ONLY 12 HOURS AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN AN
APPROXIMATELY 16MB DROP IN 24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MURKY BUT THE LATEST MODEL ITERATIONS DO KEEP THE
DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BACKED AT LEAST
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES AT THUNDER MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING
AS A PACIFIC FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE RETREATING DRYLINE. PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2KJ/KG WILL EXIST EAST OF THE RETREATING
DRYLINE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO
DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS.

IF THE WIND DOES NOT BLOW ENOUGH ON SATURDAY THAN SUNDAY WILL BE A
REAL TREAT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK SHUNTING MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  74  44  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         49  75  47  86  55 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     50  75  49  88  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  77  52  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       52  77  53  89  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  77  51  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  78  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  78  49  88  62 /  40   0   0  10  10
SPUR          56  79  53  91  63 /  20   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  53  93  64 /  30   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

26/01







000
FXUS64 KLUB 231645
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014


.UPDATE...
A FEW COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE FCST THIS MORNING THOUGH THE
GENERAL THINKING REMAINS INTACT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...WHICH WAS SOMEWHAT MORE PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...HAS SLOWED THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE WHICH
REMAINS WELL INTO NEW MEXICO AS OF 16Z. THAT SAID...PRESSURE FALLS
HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH SHARPLY VEERING SURFACE WINDS AT RUIDOSO AND
ALAMOGORDO. STILL EXPECT THE THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE TO RAPIDLY MIX
OUT AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES EAST. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE MADE IT TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. THE DRYLINE SHOULD RACE
QUICKLY TO NEAR THE I27 CORRIDOR BY 1PM WITH INITIATION MOST
LIKELY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH OF THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF THINNING OF
THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. GIVEN THE DYNAMICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE WARMING...THE CLOUD CONVEYOR SHOULD THIN RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND PROMOTE CLEARING. THIS...IN TURN...SHOULD HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WHILE ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO TIGHTEN
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE DOMINANT THREAT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
ADVERTISE GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH PLUS MAINLY EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. SOME TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THOUGH THE RISK IS TOO
CONDITIONAL TO MENTION ATTM. FINALLY...AND ISOLATE TORNADO THREAT
MAY EXIST UP INVOF KCDS AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TRIES
TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT...THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A TORNADO APPEARS RATHER LOW.

OUT WEST...FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST BEHIND THE
DRYLINE.

BOTTOM LINE...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN TODAY/S SYSTEM. WATCH
WHERE THE DRYLINE MAKES IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ROLLING
PLAINS/SERN PANHANDLE STILL HAS THE GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING
SEVERE.


&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TSTM ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS. GREATEST TSTM RISK APPEARS TO BE JUST
EAST OF KLBB ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN ITS
EASTWARD MOVEMENT DUE IN PART TO EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS. THAT
SAID...SUBSTANTIVE PROGRESS SHOULD BE REALIZED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE DRYLINE APPROACHING KLBB BY AROUND 18Z.


&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT...SO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR
WEST POPS ARE NECESSARY. FOR THOSE WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT
4/14/2012...A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE COLLISION WAS REALIZED
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS PROGGED WHICH CAUGHT MANY FORECASTERS
BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS TIME AROUND...SO
WE CANNOT ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE TEMPS PROVE
MUCH WARMER THAN PROGGED. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW FLOW
THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND FILLS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO ITS
ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

26/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 231130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE TO SHIFT TO A POSITION BTWN KLBB AND KCDS THIS AFTN. EAST
OF IT...PARTICULARLY ERN PANHANDLE...WILL BE CHANCE FOR TSRA
WORTHY OF A PROB30 AT KCDS ATTM. WEST OF THE DRYLINE WINDS WILL
VEER TO SW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20G30KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT...SO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR
WEST POPS ARE NECESSARY. FOR THOSE WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT
4/14/2012...A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE COLLISION WAS REALIZED
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS PROGGED WHICH CAUGHT MANY FORECASTERS
BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS TIME AROUND...SO
WE CANNOT ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE TEMPS PROVE
MUCH WARMER THAN PROGGED. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW FLOW
THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND FILLS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO ITS
ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.

FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 230955 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
451 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT...SO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE WILL PROVE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR
WEST POPS ARE NECESSARY. FOR THOSE WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT
4/14/2012...A PACIFIC FRONT AND DRYLINE COLLISION WAS REALIZED
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS PROGGED WHICH CAUGHT MANY FORECASTERS
BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS TIME AROUND...SO
WE CANNOT ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE TEMPS PROVE
MUCH WARMER THAN PROGGED. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW FLOW
THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND FILLS TO
OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO ITS
ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

07/93










000
FXUS64 KLUB 230900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM IDAHO TO
ARIZONA TO MOVE EWD TO THE ERN EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE DAY. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW BUT ALSO HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TO RESULT IN A DRYLINE THAT WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED THROUGH
THE DAY THEN MOVE EWD TO AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY LATE AFTN.
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
A CONVECTIVE PRECIP SIGNAL MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NRN ROLLING PLAINS EWD INTO WRN OKLAHOMA AND NW TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
MAYBE NOT AS ROBUST A SIGNAL AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY. SOME CONCERNS ARE
QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /MUST GET AS FOR SOUTH AS SAN
ANTONIO AND COLLEGE STATION BEFORE FINDING A 60F DEW POINT AS OF
08Z/...POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS
AND LAPSE RATES /MARGINAL EFFECT EXPECTED/...AND STRENGTH OF THE
CAP. AS FOR MOISTURE...SHOULD SEE MID 50S MOVE INTO THE ERN ZONES
ALTHOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. STILL THAT TYPE OF MOISTURE IS
FAR FROM DISCOUNTING PRECIP. BEST PUSH TO THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
BE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH UPPER SUPPORT ALSO
FOCUSING ON THAT DIRECTION. THIS AREA MOST LIKELY TO BREAK THE CAP
WITH AREA FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS POSSIBLY
STAYING CAPPED UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL
JET WOULD INCREASE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION POTENTIALLY
HELPING ERODE THE CAP ENOUGH THERE FOR SOME PRECIP TO BUILD SWD PER
THE WRF-NAM SOLUTION. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT PREVIOUS POP FCST LOOKS
PRETTY GOOD. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...SHIFTING WRN EDGE OF
SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE EAST WITH THE DRYLINE AND LOWERING AFTN POPS
ACROSS THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE STRONGER CAP EXPECTED.

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN AS MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS...PARTICULARLY AS THE
EVENT GOES ON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING SHEAR. STORMS
LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED TO BEGIN WITH WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED BY HIGH LCL AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS LIKELY BACKED CLOSER TO SOUTH THAN EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE TOWARD 06Z WILL SHIFT CHANCES TO THE EAST
OF THE FCST AREA.

PREVIOUS TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TOWARD 00Z MOS.
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
AGAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL SEE WINDS COME AROUND FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ONLY CHALLENGING WEATHER IN THIS LONG TERM WINDOW FROM THURSDAY
THRU TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD THE WEEKEND AS A NEGATIVE TILT UPPER
ENTERS THE PICTURE. BEFORE THEN...SHALLOW RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAKE
FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO SOME MOIST SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY FRIDAY BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE. AS SOON AS FRI NIGHT...A
DRYLINE COULD ALREADY BE BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. GRADUAL
BACKING OF WINDS ALOFT ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THIS DRYLINE NOT MIXING TOO FAR EAST DURING
THE DAY...SO WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFF THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT.

PRESSURE FALLS STILL TO OUR WEST BY SAT EVNG MAY INDEED PULL THE
DRYLINE MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATE. IT/S NOT UNCOMMON
TO SEE MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATE THE WWD EXTENT OF
RETROGRADING DRYLINES IN THESE SETUPS...BUT IT/S STILL TOO SOON TO
EXPAND PRECIP MENTION ONTO THE CAPROCK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NONETHELESS...THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND A QUICK-MOVING
PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE SOUTH PLAINS SAT NIGHT. FOR THOSE
WHO REMEMBER SATURDAY NIGHT 4/14/2012...SUCH A SCENARIO WAS
REALIZED MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS INDICATED WHICH CAUGHT
MANY FORECASTERS BY SURPRISE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS
TIME AROUND...SO WE CAN/T ENTIRELY IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SUNDAY...THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER LOW IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN WHILE
HOOKING NEWD ACROSS SERN CO AND SWRN KS. THIS IS UNFORTUNATELY A
TEXTBOOK PATTERN FOR CLASSIC SOUTH PLAINS DUST EVENTS...SO WESTERLY
WINDS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP CONSIDERABLY SUN AFTN ALONG WITH BLOWING
DUST MENTION. HIGH WINDS MAY SPARE THE REGION AS THE 500MB AND 700MB
WIND MAXIMA DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST ATTM. FIRE WEATHER
MAY ALSO FAIL TO EMERGE AS MODELS ARE TRENDING MUCH COOLER BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT...THOUGH WE/VE SEEN THIS BEFORE WHERE DRIER AND
WARMER WAS THE ACTUAL RESULT. WE DID COOL SUNDAY/S HIGHS A TOUCH...
BUT ARE STILL RESIDING ABOVE MEX AND ECM MOS. COOL AND DRY NW
FLOW THEN SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWS AND
FILLS TO OUR NORTHEAST. GULF MOISTURE WILL SADLY BE SWEPT BACK TO
ITS ORIGIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME A SCARCE COMMODITY.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW END RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS REASONABLE WRN TWO COLUMNS OF
COUNTIES. WINDS WEST OF THE DRYLINE TO INCREASE TOWARD 25 MPH AT THE
20-FOOT LEVEL WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 PCT. SOME QUESTION HOW
LONG THAT COMBINATION WILL LAST ACROSS THIS AREA BUT NEAR 3 HOURS IF
NOT EXCEEDING THAT DURATION SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
INHERITED WARNING AND UPGRADE THE WATCH AREA TO A WARNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  44  75  44  86 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  46  76  47  87 /  20  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     87  48  77  49  89 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     88  47  79  52  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  50  79  53  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  50  77  53  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  49  79  54  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  56  79  49  89 /  50  40   0   0   0
SPUR          87  53  80  53  92 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  59  80  53  94 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040.

&&

$$

07/93








000
FXUS64 KLUB 230448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS TAF FORECAST. A WEAK
-TSRA OR -SHRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT VERY UNLIKELY...IN THE VICINITY
OF EITHER TERMINAL EARLY WED MORNING LIKELY HAVING MINIMAL
AVIATION IMPACTS. THERE WILL BE A SLIM CHANCE OF TSRA AT KLBB FROM
ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC...AND A BETTER CHANCE AT KCDS FROM ABOUT 21 TO
05 UTC. TSRA COULD BE STRONG IN THE KCDS AREA. A STRONG LOW-LVL
JET EARLY WED MORNING WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR SO
THROUGH ABOUT 12 UTC. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A -TSRA OR -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB AROUND 10 TO 14 UTC
AND AGAIN FROM ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC. A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED AT KCDS AT THE TAIL-END OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG LOW-
LVL JET OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR
SO. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 222337
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A -TSRA OR -SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF KLBB AROUND 10 TO 14 UTC
AND AGAIN FROM ABOUT 19 TO 21 UTC. A BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED AT KCDS AT THE TAIL-END OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG LOW-
LVL JET OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME CHOP IN THE LOWEST 3000 FT OR
SO. SRLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY BECOME
SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KTS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

33








000
FXUS64 KLUB 222048
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL SHIFT FROM NEAR ZONAL THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST
PUSHES EASTWARD. INTERESTINGLY...THE TROUGH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THOUGH DRAGS OUT TO A POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INDICATED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD WAVE MAY TRIGGER
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION BEING TO EXTEND CHC POPS
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXPLICIT MENTION OF SVR
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD BE
RESPECTABLE WITH 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 2-3 J/KG CAPE.
TORNADO POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS RATHER POOR WITH HIGH BASED
STORMS BEING THE RULE.

OUT WEST...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HAVE
ELECTED TO EXPAND FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND UPGRADED PARMER/LAMB COUNTIES TO RED FLAG
WARNING AS CONFIDENCE THERE IN MEETING THE 3 HOUR DURATION IS
BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER CONVECTION WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON THURSDAY MAINLY ONLY HAVING THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHT
LOWERING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY BUT WILL NOT BRING
ANYTHING BUT SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US BACK TO
THE MORE FAMILIAR DRY...WARM...AND WINDY CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIFFLUENCE AND POSSIBLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST ON SATURDAY WHEN
APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY
CLIP THE ROLLING PLAINS IF THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS
MODELS CURRENTLY PROG WITH DEEPLY MIXED AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS FAR WEST AS THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...GFS ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...IN ALL LIKELIHOOD FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY AT LEAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING DOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES JUST
BELOW 0C WHICH COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE. THE LAST TIME
THIS OCCURRED...MODELS WERE FAIRLY ACCURATE WITH THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  84  45  75  44 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         54  85  47  76  47 /   0  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  86  49  77  49 /   0  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  86  48  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  87  51  79  53 /   0  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  85  51  77  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  86  48  79  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  88  58  79  49 /   0  50  40   0   0
SPUR          58  87  54  80  53 /   0  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     61  89  60  80  53 /   0  40  40   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ022-028-033-034-039-040.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027.

&&

$$

26/01







000
FXUS64 KLUB 221726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. ISO TSTMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NM
BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE STATE LINE. INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH 35 KT LLJ. AT THIS POINT...DOES
NOT APPEAR BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE SUFFICIENTLY FOR LLWS
MENTION. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED BEYOND 18Z MAINLY EAST OF KLBB WITH
SVR THREAT POSSIBLE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 221141 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL
START OUT OF THE EAST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

14/93/14







000
FXUS64 KLUB 220942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
442 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850HPA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD
FRONT STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN
A SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  SOME MID TO HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THESE
WILL BE CARRIED INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A MOSTLY SUNNY
SUNRISE.  EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE RIDGE APPROACHES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CARRY IT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  THE MOST OPTIMISTIC
ARE THE TTU-WRF AND NAM12 WHICH BRING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
MIX FAIRLY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION.  A SMALL INVERSION ON TOP OF
THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MEANS THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A CAP TO
OVERCOME DURING THE DAY AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.  ONLY POSITIVE IS THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND SUSTAIN ANY STORMS...ALLOWING THEM TO MAKE IT
ACROSS THE STATE LINE.  FEEL THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAKING
IT INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IS PRETTY SLIM BUT NON-ZERO.  WILL
CONTINUE CARRY NON-MENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10-12 PERCENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 15 MPH KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR
OVERNIGHT.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO GET THE LION/S SHARE OF ATTENTION IN THIS
LONG TERM PACKAGE COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND ACTIVE
DRYLINE. FOLLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS EARLY MORNING
SPRINKLES ON WED FROM A LEAD IMPULSE...STRONG HEATING AND DEEP
MIXING LOOK TO EASILY BREACH THE MODEST EML LID BY EARLY-TO-MID
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND THE STREAK OF MODEL RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN
CONVECTING THIS DAY...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST AS INITIATION IS A GOOD BET IN SUCH
A SETUP. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO THE DRYLINE RESIDING WEST
OF I-27 BY 18Z WED...SO ISOLATED TSTORMS WERE NUDGED WEST A BIT...
HOWEVER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT WILL SEE TO IT THAT THESE
STORMS ARE SENT PACKING OFF THE CAPROCK BEFORE 00Z. POINT SOUNDINGS
ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SBCAPES APPROACH
3000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS RELATIVE TO LOCATIONS
FARTHER WEST. SUBSTANTIAL CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C LAYER ALONE
IS A RED FLAG FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ANY HAIL COULD CERTAINLY GROW TO
SIGNIFICANT SIZES. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO FOSTER
DOWNBURSTS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LESSER OF THE THREATS SO FAR.

THE DRYLINE SHOULD HANG UP IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WED EVENING
WITH THE BRUNT OF STORMS QUICKLY DEPARTING EAST...BUT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW MOVES IN WITH THE BASE OF THE 300MB TROUGH. OPTED TO LEAVE
SOME POPS IN THE EVENING OUT EAST BEFORE NIXING MENTION ALTOGETHER
BY 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS THEN DRAGGED SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY
THU MORNING BEFORE A MODIFIED RETURN FLOW RESUMES ON FRI AHEAD OF
A MORE VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON SATURDAY. DID KEEP
THE INHERITED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AFTN AND
NIGHT OFF THE CAPROCK AS SUCH A FORMIDABLE LOOKING TROUGH COULD
EASILY ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF EVEN RICHER MIXING RATIOS BACK
INTO THE REGION...WHILE ALSO PULLING THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST THAN
MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE...BLOWING DUST MAY BE
IN THE CARDS PROVIDED A 30-40 KNOT 850MB WIND MAX UNFOLDS AS PROGGED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE NEG TILT TROUGH LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF AND BEGIN WOBBLING E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE/LL SEE
A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER BOUT OF SOME FREEZING LOWS
IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW LOOK A BIT
MORE ATTAINABLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS WEST OF A MORTON
TO DIMMITT LINE. POST-DRYLINE WINDS BY THIS TIME SHOULD REACH 20
MPH AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
EVENTUALLY SINGLE DIGITS. THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE
UNDER A 30-35 KNOT WIND MAX AT 850MB...SO THERE IS STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE NECESSARY WIND SPEED AND DURATION MAY PROVE TOO
INTERMITTENT DESPITE VERY LOW RH VALUES. THEREAFTER...A MORE
DEFINITIVE FIRE WEATHER SETUP MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK BY SATURDAY IN EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  54  83  45  75 /   0  10  10   0   0
TULIA         82  56  84  47  76 /   0   0  20   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  57  84  49  77 /   0   0  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  60  87  48  79 /   0  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  59  87  51  79 /   0   0  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  61  86  51  77 /   0  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    81  61  87  48  79 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  57  86  58  79 /   0   0  50  30   0
SPUR          83  59  86  54  80 /   0   0  30  20   0
ASPERMONT     86  59  88  60  80 /   0   0  20  30   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028-033.

&&

$$

14/93







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