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000
FXUS64 KLUB 030550
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 14Z
TUESDAY. MOST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW MAINTAINING SHALLOW
MOIST AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON THE
CAPROCK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHOWERS ALOFT
MAINLY NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER...POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY MAY BE
TRIMMED EARLIER. AT LEAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BARELY CLIMBED ABOVE
FREEZING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH REMAINS A CLOSE
CALL INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL RIME ICE
POTENTIAL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND NOW MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN NEAR OR BELOW IFR
UNTIL 12Z-14Z TIME-FRAME. KCDS REMAINS MORE MIXED WITH LOW CEILING
RISK BUT CHOSE TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN CURRENT CONDITIONS THERE
UNTIL THESE CHANGE...MOST LIKELY NEAR IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IFR EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AT ALL SITES WITH VEERED
WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. PASSING SHOWERS MAY YET BE AN
ISSUE TUESDAY BUT NOT POSSIBLE YET TO NAIL DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL
BEST CHANCE TIMES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  59  27  28 /  10  10  10  40
TULIA         34  59  26  28 /  10  10  20  40
PLAINVIEW     34  60  29  30 /  10  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     33  60  34  34 /  10  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       34  61  33  33 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   34  61  39  43 /  10  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    33  61  38  38 /  10  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     36  64  29  30 /  10  10  30  40
SPUR          35  63  33  33 /  10  10  30  40
ASPERMONT     36  67  37  37 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

05/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030550
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 14Z
TUESDAY. MOST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW MAINTAINING SHALLOW
MOIST AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON THE
CAPROCK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHOWERS ALOFT
MAINLY NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER...POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY MAY BE
TRIMMED EARLIER. AT LEAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BARELY CLIMBED ABOVE
FREEZING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH REMAINS A CLOSE
CALL INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL RIME ICE
POTENTIAL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND NOW MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN NEAR OR BELOW IFR
UNTIL 12Z-14Z TIME-FRAME. KCDS REMAINS MORE MIXED WITH LOW CEILING
RISK BUT CHOSE TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN CURRENT CONDITIONS THERE
UNTIL THESE CHANGE...MOST LIKELY NEAR IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IFR EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AT ALL SITES WITH VEERED
WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. PASSING SHOWERS MAY YET BE AN
ISSUE TUESDAY BUT NOT POSSIBLE YET TO NAIL DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL
BEST CHANCE TIMES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  59  27  28 /  10  10  10  40
TULIA         34  59  26  28 /  10  10  20  40
PLAINVIEW     34  60  29  30 /  10  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     33  60  34  34 /  10  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       34  61  33  33 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   34  61  39  43 /  10  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    33  61  38  38 /  10  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     36  64  29  30 /  10  10  30  40
SPUR          35  63  33  33 /  10  10  30  40
ASPERMONT     36  67  37  37 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

05/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030550
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 14Z
TUESDAY. MOST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW MAINTAINING SHALLOW
MOIST AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON THE
CAPROCK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHOWERS ALOFT
MAINLY NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER...POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY MAY BE
TRIMMED EARLIER. AT LEAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BARELY CLIMBED ABOVE
FREEZING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH REMAINS A CLOSE
CALL INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL RIME ICE
POTENTIAL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND NOW MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN NEAR OR BELOW IFR
UNTIL 12Z-14Z TIME-FRAME. KCDS REMAINS MORE MIXED WITH LOW CEILING
RISK BUT CHOSE TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN CURRENT CONDITIONS THERE
UNTIL THESE CHANGE...MOST LIKELY NEAR IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IFR EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AT ALL SITES WITH VEERED
WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. PASSING SHOWERS MAY YET BE AN
ISSUE TUESDAY BUT NOT POSSIBLE YET TO NAIL DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL
BEST CHANCE TIMES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  59  27  28 /  10  10  10  40
TULIA         34  59  26  28 /  10  10  20  40
PLAINVIEW     34  60  29  30 /  10  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     33  60  34  34 /  10  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       34  61  33  33 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   34  61  39  43 /  10  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    33  61  38  38 /  10  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     36  64  29  30 /  10  10  30  40
SPUR          35  63  33  33 /  10  10  30  40
ASPERMONT     36  67  37  37 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

05/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030550
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK THROUGH 14Z
TUESDAY. MOST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW MAINTAINING SHALLOW
MOIST AIRMASS WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON THE
CAPROCK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
PERHAPS A BIT OF MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH PASSING SHOWERS ALOFT
MAINLY NEAR NEW MEXICO BORDER...POSSIBLE THAT ADVISORY MAY BE
TRIMMED EARLIER. AT LEAST TEMPERATURES HAVE BARELY CLIMBED ABOVE
FREEZING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...ALTHOUGH REMAINS A CLOSE
CALL INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL RIME ICE
POTENTIAL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND NOW MOST SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN NEAR OR BELOW IFR
UNTIL 12Z-14Z TIME-FRAME. KCDS REMAINS MORE MIXED WITH LOW CEILING
RISK BUT CHOSE TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN CURRENT CONDITIONS THERE
UNTIL THESE CHANGE...MOST LIKELY NEAR IF NOT A LITTLE BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. IFR EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AT ALL SITES WITH VEERED
WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. PASSING SHOWERS MAY YET BE AN
ISSUE TUESDAY BUT NOT POSSIBLE YET TO NAIL DOWN ANY MEANINGFUL
BEST CHANCE TIMES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  59  27  28 /  10  10  10  40
TULIA         34  59  26  28 /  10  10  20  40
PLAINVIEW     34  60  29  30 /  10  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     33  60  34  34 /  10  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       34  61  33  33 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   34  61  39  43 /  10  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    33  61  38  38 /  10  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     36  64  29  30 /  10  10  30  40
SPUR          35  63  33  33 /  10  10  30  40
ASPERMONT     36  67  37  37 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

05/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030002
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  33  59  27 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         35  34  59  26 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     34  34  60  29 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     34  33  60  34 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       35  34  61  33 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   34  34  61  39 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    33  33  61  38 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     38  36  64  29 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          36  35  63  33 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     37  36  67  37 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030002
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  33  59  27 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         35  34  59  26 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     34  34  60  29 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     34  33  60  34 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       35  34  61  33 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   34  34  61  39 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    33  33  61  38 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     38  36  64  29 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          36  35  63  33 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     37  36  67  37 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030002
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  33  59  27 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         35  34  59  26 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     34  34  60  29 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     34  33  60  34 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       35  34  61  33 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   34  34  61  39 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    33  33  61  38 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     38  36  64  29 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          36  35  63  33 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     37  36  67  37 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030002
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGHLY COMPLEX ISSUES CONTINUE INVOLVING MAINTENANCE OF THE VERY
SHALLOW BUT COLD AND MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED BUT SERVING MAINLY TO RETAIN
HIGH MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. RADAR THIS EVENING ALSO IS
GIVING CLUES TO A CHANGING AIRMASS WITH A MASS OF VERY LOW
INTENSITY SHALLOW REFLECTIVITY NOT MORE THAN ABOUT -10 DBZ EDGING
INTO KLBB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SUSPECT A LAYER OF MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR SURFACE SATURATION...PERHAPS DENSE FOG...BUT
SURFACE REPORTS SO FAR TO THE CONTRARY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN
UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD LIFT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
EVENING BUT MID LEVEL APPEARS VERY DRY. RADAR SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WHILE MAJORITY OF
SOLUTIONS SIDE WITH INABILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO SURVIVE
DECENT THROUGH THE VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND ABOUT 825 MB.
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE NOT CUED INTO THIS ACTIVITY MUCH
PREVIOUSLY NOW ARE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KLBB AND PERHAPS BRUSHING KPVW LATER
TONIGHT. WE WILL LEAVE SHOWERS OUT FOR NOW. VERY SHALLOW BUT QUITE
STRONG THERMAL INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE APPEARS WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE AT THE FACE OF THIS PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY VEERING
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT EVEN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
SOLUTIONS SHOW MAINTENANCE OF A SHARP INVERSION. AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RIGHT NEAR FREEZING...THIS COULD FACTOR YET
INTO A MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD ANY EVENTUALLY THREATEN A
TAF SITE. CONFIDENCE IN FULL EROSION TIME THEREFORE REMAINS LOW
BUT WE WILL TIME TAFS FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE LIFR CONDITIONS AT
KPVW AND KLBB BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH UNDERSTANDING THAT
SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THIS EVENT. KCDS
APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR CEILINGS MEANWHILE. MORE LIFT
WILL PASS BY TUESDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADDRESS THAT MORE WITH THE 06Z TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  33  59  27 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         35  34  59  26 /  20  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     34  34  60  29 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     34  33  60  34 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       35  34  61  33 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   34  34  61  39 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    33  33  61  38 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     38  36  64  29 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          36  35  63  33 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     37  36  67  37 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 022141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  59  27  28 /  10  10  10  40
TULIA         34  59  26  28 /  10  10  20  40
PLAINVIEW     34  60  29  30 /  10  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     33  60  34  34 /  10  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       34  61  33  33 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   34  61  39  43 /  10  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    33  61  38  38 /  10  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     36  64  29  30 /  10  10  30  40
SPUR          35  63  33  33 /  10  10  30  40
ASPERMONT     36  67  37  37 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/55




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED SHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PARTIAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THOSE
AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY FAIRLY FLAT AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES...IN FACT WE MAY SEE TEMPS RISE A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WILL MAKE FIGURING OUT THE DAILY HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURE CHART COMPLICATED. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH TONIGHT REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES OR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED
BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE TONIGHT. WE HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...AND
WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD...WHILE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS
ACROSS NRN MX NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. OVERNIGHT...A NARROW
MID-LVL JET MAX WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION...AND ENHANCE THE
ONGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES
SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LVL DRY LAYER. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
MOISTURE REACHES THE GROUND...BUT WE THINK THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS OF RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SNOW...OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN SPLNS. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY FOGGY START TUESDAY MORNING A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH DRY WEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE TTU-WRF
SUGGESTS WE COULD STILL SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST AS THE MID-LVL VORT RIBBON SHIFTS NEWD...BUT WITH LOW-LVLS
CONTINUING TO DRY OUT WE THINK VIRGA IS MORE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZES AND EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S. WE HAVE UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE TEMP FORECAST BY 5-10 DEGREES PARTLY BECAUSE IT APPEARS
MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL GO INTO MELTING THE REMAINING SNOWPACK.

.LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN/ROLLING PLAINS. YET ANOTHER UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS FILLS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MODERATING
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND BACK
TOWARD MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 25-35 DEGREES COOLER THEN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS THURSDAY MORNING.

ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THE BRIEF WARMUP TUESDAY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BEGIN IN THE FORM OF RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT FIRST THEN
CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST BEYOND JUST PRECIP PHASE IS THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DRIES THE AREA OUT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HOLDING BACK
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS A COMPROMISE SCALED BACK SUPERBLEND POPS TO MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN FOLLOWED SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
WITH CHANCE POPS LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

OVERALL THE SYSTEMS BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOW EXPECTED MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH TWO INCHES IN OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP SOONER. IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEELING LIKE THE HEART OF WINTER YET
AGAIN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE US ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.

BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST AND WE SEE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  59  27  28 /  10  10  10  40
TULIA         34  59  26  28 /  10  10  20  40
PLAINVIEW     34  60  29  30 /  10  10  20  40
LEVELLAND     33  60  34  34 /  10  10  20  40
LUBBOCK       34  61  33  33 /  10  10  20  40
DENVER CITY   34  61  39  43 /  10  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    33  61  38  38 /  10  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     36  64  29  30 /  10  10  30  40
SPUR          35  63  33  33 /  10  10  30  40
ASPERMONT     36  67  37  37 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1201 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
FREEZING FOG. THIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
WE MAY NOT BREAK OUT COMPLETELY OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. KCDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT KCDS WILL SEE LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
THICK FOG AT KPVW AND KLBB CENTERED AROUND 9-12 UTC. ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 14 UTC. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE W-SW TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME
BREEZY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FORCED IN PART BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LVL PROFILE...AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER
AROUND 800-700MB. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND...AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12
NOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...INCLUDING AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT THROUGH NOON...BUT LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S MAY
PROVE JUST A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  20   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1201 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
FREEZING FOG. THIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
WE MAY NOT BREAK OUT COMPLETELY OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. KCDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT KCDS WILL SEE LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
THICK FOG AT KPVW AND KLBB CENTERED AROUND 9-12 UTC. ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 14 UTC. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE W-SW TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME
BREEZY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FORCED IN PART BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LVL PROFILE...AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER
AROUND 800-700MB. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND...AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12
NOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...INCLUDING AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT THROUGH NOON...BUT LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S MAY
PROVE JUST A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  20   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1201 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
FREEZING FOG. THIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
WE MAY NOT BREAK OUT COMPLETELY OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. KCDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT KCDS WILL SEE LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
THICK FOG AT KPVW AND KLBB CENTERED AROUND 9-12 UTC. ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 14 UTC. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE W-SW TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME
BREEZY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FORCED IN PART BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LVL PROFILE...AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER
AROUND 800-700MB. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND...AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12
NOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...INCLUDING AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT THROUGH NOON...BUT LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S MAY
PROVE JUST A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  20   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1201 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
FREEZING FOG. THIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
WE MAY NOT BREAK OUT COMPLETELY OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. KCDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE
THAT KCDS WILL SEE LOW CEILINGS. THERE IS MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
THICK FOG AT KPVW AND KLBB CENTERED AROUND 9-12 UTC. ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY REDUCTIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 14 UTC. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE W-SW TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME
BREEZY BY MIDDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FORCED IN PART BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LVL PROFILE...AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER
AROUND 800-700MB. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND...AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12
NOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...INCLUDING AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT THROUGH NOON...BUT LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S MAY
PROVE JUST A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  20   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021649 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1049 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FORCED IN PART BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LVL PROFILE...AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER
AROUND 800-700MB. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND...AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12
NOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...INCLUDING AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT THROUGH NOON...BUT LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S MAY
PROVE JUST A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  20   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021649 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1049 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FORCED IN PART BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH A
VEERING LOW-LVL PROFILE...AND IS ABLE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY LAYER
AROUND 800-700MB. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND...AND ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12
NOON WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MAINTAINING
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND WE HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG...INCLUDING AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY THIN OUT THROUGH NOON...BUT LIGHT FOG IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S MAY
PROVE JUST A BIT OPTIMISTIC...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  20   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  20  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  30  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  10  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  30  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  30  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED SHOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  30  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  30  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  10  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  30  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  30  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021056
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  10  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/14/51




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021056
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  10  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/14/51




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021056
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  10  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/14/51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021056
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
456 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR CIGS THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AT PVW AND
LBB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY 15Z AND MVFR BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z LATER THIS EVENING. VIS AT
BOTH TERMINALS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2-2 MILES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR
THROUGH 15Z. DESPITE IMPROVING CIGS LATER TODAY A LAYER OF STRATUS
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
BETTER AT CDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS RISE TO VFR.
A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED AT CDS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  10  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/14/51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  10  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
427 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOIST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE ON AVERAGE 0-1 DEGREES F. THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE FOGGY
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ARE FAIRLY MOIST AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 4-5 DEGREES F ARE
OBSERVED. THIS IS IN PART TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FA DUE TO THIS MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE
MORNING. VIS AROUND MORNING COMMUTE TIME CAN BE ANYWHERE FROM
1/2-2 MILES WITH LOWER VIS OCCURRING IN MORE RURAL AREAS AND WHERE
THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS A
LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND AT LEAST GET US ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. THOUGH WARMER...1000-500MB/MSLP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WAA AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE WEAK AND SLOW TO OCCUR. WEAK WAA IN ADDITION TO
THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND SUGGESTS
THAT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER ISSUE AT HAND FOR TODAY IS
PRECIP CHANCES. THOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE DAY IT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER
THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ENERGY FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS ENERGY IS HARD TO PICKUP ON WV IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE ITS VALIDITY...HOWEVER INCREASED LIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH MAY COINCIDE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. THIS GIVES ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SPRINKLES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE...ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

ALDRICH

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS
DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. MODELS FOR THE
LAST 4 DAYS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT SEEM TO BE COMING
CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF 10-15 MPH AS OPPOSED TO THE 25-35 MPH THE
GFS WAS PREDICTING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS
HOWEVER AS RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING TAKES PLACE WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.

UNFORTUNATELY THE WARM UP WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GFS BEING THE
FASTEST...THEN THE ECMWF...AND THEN THE NAM AS THE SLOWEST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE WEST COAST CLOSED LOW WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED INTO A STRONG TROUGH AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE DRIED
OUT ON TUESDAY...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN AND START
TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS PROCESS MAY TAKE
A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN SO THE BEST LIFT MAY BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE COLUMN CAN
SUPPORT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. NEXT ISSUE IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS ALL LIQUID THEN TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET AS A DEEP WARM LAYER
CENTERED AROUND 800 HPA IS STILL FORECASTED TO BE IN PLACE AND NOT
FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE THE BEST MID LEVEL
LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND STRONGEST
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. BEST SNOW TOTALS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO AROUND 1 INCH BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
THAT...AND FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD SEE MAINLY
A THIN GLAZE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION REIGNS SUPREME AND CLOUDY SKIES
WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.

TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF BAJA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SWING THIS
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. GFS HAS A MUCH
WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTIONS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS
REMAINS DRY. ONE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS WARMS
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF
HINTS AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE FRONT IN
THE ECMWF IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING TOO FAST. FOR ONCE WE WILL HAVE TO SAY THAT WE PREFER THE
GFS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS
WHICH IS A SPREAD FROM LOWS IN THE 30S TO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  33  60  24 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         39  34  60  23 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     38  35  61  24 /  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     37  35  63  30 /  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  36  64  26 /  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   39  35  65  36 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    36  34  64  34 /  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     40  34  66  26 /  10  10  10  30
SPUR          39  34  67  26 /  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     39  34  69  26 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020513
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1113 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY A LITTLE SLOW TO COME ABOUT THIS EVENING...
LIKELY IN LARGE PART TO WEAK COLD AND DRY ADVECTION MAINTAINING A
NEARLY CONSTANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TOWARD THE EAST THAT SPREAD SHOULD BEGIN TO
NARROW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT KLBB
AND KPVW IS FALLING /LIFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING MONDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS/. MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCDS WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY MOST IF NOT ALL
THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020513
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1113 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY A LITTLE SLOW TO COME ABOUT THIS EVENING...
LIKELY IN LARGE PART TO WEAK COLD AND DRY ADVECTION MAINTAINING A
NEARLY CONSTANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TOWARD THE EAST THAT SPREAD SHOULD BEGIN TO
NARROW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT KLBB
AND KPVW IS FALLING /LIFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING MONDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS/. MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCDS WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY MOST IF NOT ALL
THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 020513
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1113 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY A LITTLE SLOW TO COME ABOUT THIS EVENING...
LIKELY IN LARGE PART TO WEAK COLD AND DRY ADVECTION MAINTAINING A
NEARLY CONSTANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TOWARD THE EAST THAT SPREAD SHOULD BEGIN TO
NARROW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT KLBB
AND KPVW IS FALLING /LIFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING MONDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS/. MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCDS WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY MOST IF NOT ALL
THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 020513
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1113 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY A LITTLE SLOW TO COME ABOUT THIS EVENING...
LIKELY IN LARGE PART TO WEAK COLD AND DRY ADVECTION MAINTAINING A
NEARLY CONSTANT TEMP-DEW POINT SPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER TOWARD THE EAST THAT SPREAD SHOULD BEGIN TO
NARROW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT KLBB
AND KPVW IS FALLING /LIFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING MONDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS/. MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCDS WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY MOST IF NOT ALL
THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012335
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012335
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 012335
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012335
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
535 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH WARMER SWLY FLOW WITH
STRATUS REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMP-DEW POINT
SPREADS NARROW THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR OR
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTN HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 012149
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

.LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012149
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

.LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 012149
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

.LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012149
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY WARMED INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING. THE WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL BE
HALTED BY A SHOT OF COOLER AIR BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT EDGING IN
ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO WEST TEXAS. COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
PROVIDING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OWING TO A FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL AIR ADVECTING
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM TO
NIL GIVEN A FORMIDABLE POCKET OF DRY AIR CENTERED NEAR H70. WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SATURATION UP TO 2500-3000 FEET
DEEP...CERTAINLY CAN SEE PROSPECTS FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AGAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND A SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SPILLS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR A
CONSECUTIVE NIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER REMAINING SNOWPACK EXISTS
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...TARGETING AREAS MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS.

THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MID MONDAY
MORNING AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES HOLD LEADING TO A SHRINKING
LAYER OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION. A LEAD IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE PARENT
UPPER DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TOO ANEMIC TO
OVERCOME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND DECREASING
SATURATION. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS STUBBORN
SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN VICINITY
OF COLORADO...FURTHER AIDING IN THE INTRUSION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
FURTHER...BUT STILL ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S AS
STRATUS DECK WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK.

.LONG TERM...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL.
WARM ADVECTION WILL PICK UP AS S-SW FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS
THANKS TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE
TO THIS WARM ADVECTION. A DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRING BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH ON TUESDAY COULD WELL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH WE/LL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR ANY COOLING EFFECT FROM THE DWINDLING SNOWPACK. LATE
TUESDAY...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MED-RANGE
GUIDANCE PAINTS THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN-ERN ZONES DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THAT AREA. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START
OUT AS RAIN BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING THROUGH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT...SO AT THIS TIME WE HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL GIVE US ANOTHER RAW DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING. ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WED AND WED
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT SEE MUCH
INDICATION OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME RENEWED LIFT ARRIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD MAINTAIN PRECIP CHANCES AND ALLOW GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY BEYOND BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
PREVENT A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  43  35  60 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         22  40  36  62 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     24  40  36  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     23  42  37  65 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       25  41  37  66 /  10  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   27  44  37  67 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    25  42  36  66 /  10  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     26  40  36  68 /  10  10  20  10
SPUR          26  40  36  69 /  10  10  20   0
ASPERMONT     27  40  36  71 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 011815
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
JUST ENOUGH MIXING NEAR AND EAST OF KCDS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS SIGN OF
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY END INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WITH NORTHWARD STREAMING OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
VERY SLIM SHOT AT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR
NOW. NONETHELESS...FAIRLY CERTAIN KLBB AND KPVW WILL SEE LOWERING
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WHILE MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO OCCURRENCE/TIMING AT KCDS WITH LESS OF A SNOWPACK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.

LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  37  59 /  20  20  10  10
TULIA         26  40  38  60 /  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     26  40  38  60 /  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     29  42  37  62 /  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       28  40  38  62 /  20  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   29  44  38  64 /  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    29  42  36  64 /  20  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     27  39  38  66 /  20  20  20  10
SPUR          28  39  37  66 /  20  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     29  39  39  69 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 011815
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
JUST ENOUGH MIXING NEAR AND EAST OF KCDS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS SIGN OF
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY END INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WITH NORTHWARD STREAMING OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
VERY SLIM SHOT AT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT...BUT
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR
NOW. NONETHELESS...FAIRLY CERTAIN KLBB AND KPVW WILL SEE LOWERING
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WHILE MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO OCCURRENCE/TIMING AT KCDS WITH LESS OF A SNOWPACK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.

LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  42  37  59 /  20  20  10  10
TULIA         26  40  38  60 /  20  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     26  40  38  60 /  20  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     29  42  37  62 /  20  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       28  40  38  62 /  20  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   29  44  38  64 /  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    29  42  36  64 /  20  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     27  39  38  66 /  20  20  20  10
SPUR          28  39  37  66 /  20  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     29  39  39  69 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 011131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT TO IFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT LATEST DATA SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT LBB WHERE +FZFG NOW APPEARS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SN/IP/FZDZ
AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THRU
02/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.

LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 011131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT TO IFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT LATEST DATA SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO
CURRENT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT LBB WHERE +FZFG NOW APPEARS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SN/IP/FZDZ
AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LIGHT WINDS THRU
02/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.

LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010957
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.

.LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

JORDAN
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  27  42  37 /  10  20  20  10
TULIA         37  26  40  38 /  10  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     36  26  40  38 /  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     37  29  42  37 /  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       34  28  40  38 /  10  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   38  29  44  38 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    36  29  42  36 /  10  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     36  27  39  38 /  10  20  20  20
SPUR          36  28  39  37 /  10  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     37  29  39  39 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010957
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.

.LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

JORDAN
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  27  42  37 /  10  20  20  10
TULIA         37  26  40  38 /  10  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     36  26  40  38 /  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     37  29  42  37 /  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       34  28  40  38 /  10  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   38  29  44  38 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    36  29  42  36 /  10  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     36  27  39  38 /  10  20  20  20
SPUR          36  28  39  37 /  10  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     37  29  39  39 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010957
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.

.LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

JORDAN
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  27  42  37 /  10  20  20  10
TULIA         37  26  40  38 /  10  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     36  26  40  38 /  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     37  29  42  37 /  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       34  28  40  38 /  10  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   38  29  44  38 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    36  29  42  36 /  10  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     36  27  39  38 /  10  20  20  20
SPUR          36  28  39  37 /  10  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     37  29  39  39 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010957
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW DOME OF COLD AIR HAS PROVEN QUITE RESILIENT OVER OUR CWA
EVEN WITH ITS PARENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXITING TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
S-SE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN RECYCLING COLD TRAJECTORIES FOR THE
PAST DAY...HOWEVER TEMPS JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET ALOFT CONTINUE
TO MODERATE NICELY AS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER AMDAR DATA. AFTER
MORNING FOG EVENTUALLY LIFTS...STUBBORN STRATUS IS PROGGED TO THIN
TO AROUND 1500 FEET THICK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MUTED
INSOLATION AND MIXING TO OCCUR. THIS WILL SERVE TO FINALLY PUSH
THE CWA INTO ABOVE FREEZING TERRITORY FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST THURSDAY MORNING. ON A RELATED NOTE...THE MAV REMAINS
EGREGIOUSLY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DISMISSED
IN FAVOR OF THE COLDER MET AND RAW MODELS. BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLIES ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE BEGIN BACKING
IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING THIS EVENING.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE UNFOLDS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS
MORE SW AND DIRECTS A MODEST AREA OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUR
WAY. UNFORTUNATELY...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH HOPE FOR
SATURATING A WARM AND VERY DRY EML CENTERED AROUND 700MB. IF THIS
PROVES ACCURATE...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH TRACE ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE ALL WE SEE AS STRATUS DEEPENS TO 3000 FEET THICK OR SO. WE
DID RETAIN SOME SCANT PRECIP MENTION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST DRIER
SUPERBLEND...THOUGH LATER FORECASTS MAY SEE FIT TO DO AWAY WITH
THESE POPS ALTOGETHER IF THIS DRYING THEME CONTINUES. PROFILES
SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SLEET
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ADEQUATELY MOISTEN THE EML.

.LONG TERM...
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT ONLY BRING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BUT ALSO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHEARING OFF
A DEEP TROF THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WHICH WARRANTS KEEPING AT
LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF MELTING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. SURFACE WIND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO CUT
THEM BACK BY ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT AREAS THAT RECEIVED
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL STILL TAKE A WHILE TO MELT WHAT REMAINS
ON THE GROUND.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT A PRETTY GOOD DENT IN THE SNOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE
ON TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUT BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. MODELS VEER THE SURFACE WIND TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS WELL AS
PUSHING ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN THAT MORNING LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THERE WILL BE TO LIMIT INSOLATION BUT THIS WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THE START OF THIS COLD SNAP.

UNFORTUNATELY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEST
COAST LOW/TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A TOP-DOWN PRECIPITATION EVENT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT ON TUESDAY SO POP FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY AS TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE WE WILL SEE WITH THE MAIN TROF
PASSAGE. LEFT POPS INTACT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALL BELOW FREEZING...SHOULD SEE SNOW WITH
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS. THERE STILL ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TROF WITH THE ECMWF SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW AND
KEEPING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE TRYING TO DEVELOP A NEW CLOSED LOW
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF OF BAJA.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE COLD AIRMASS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS IT STARTS TO MODIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM DAY BY DAY BUT WE
SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FORECAST
WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY FOR NOW AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA BUT THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
FORM OF CLOUD COVER. KEPT FORECAST DRY THANKS TO A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER.

JORDAN
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  27  42  37 /  10  20  20  10
TULIA         37  26  40  38 /  10  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     36  26  40  38 /  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     37  29  42  37 /  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       34  28  40  38 /  10  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   38  29  44  38 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    36  29  42  36 /  10  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     36  27  39  38 /  10  20  20  20
SPUR          36  28  39  37 /  10  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     37  29  39  39 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010528
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
WARMER SWLY FLOW JUST OVER IT. NO SIG CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAF SET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY WARM AIR ALOFT AS SWLY FLOW
INCREASES OVERHEAD. THIS AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF EXCEPTION
SUNDAY AFTN KLBB AND KPVW WHERE CONDITIONS COULD TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE. UNTIL THEN THIS SETUP FAVORS LIFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME -FZDZ OVERNIGHT /ALTHOUGH
WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HOW WIDESPREAD THAT PHENOMENON WILL BE/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.

DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  47  26  48 /  10  10  20  20
TULIA         23  44  26  44 /  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     24  45  28  45 /  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     25  49  31  48 /  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       24  46  31  47 /  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   27  53  34  51 /  10  10  30  30
BROWNFIELD    26  50  33  48 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     23  40  28  40 /  10  10  20  20
SPUR          25  41  30  42 /  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     27  42  31  43 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010528
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
WARMER SWLY FLOW JUST OVER IT. NO SIG CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAF SET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

AVIATION...
SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY WARM AIR ALOFT AS SWLY FLOW
INCREASES OVERHEAD. THIS AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF EXCEPTION
SUNDAY AFTN KLBB AND KPVW WHERE CONDITIONS COULD TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE. UNTIL THEN THIS SETUP FAVORS LIFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME -FZDZ OVERNIGHT /ALTHOUGH
WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HOW WIDESPREAD THAT PHENOMENON WILL BE/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.

DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  47  26  48 /  10  10  20  20
TULIA         23  44  26  44 /  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     24  45  28  45 /  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     25  49  31  48 /  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       24  46  31  47 /  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   27  53  34  51 /  10  10  30  30
BROWNFIELD    26  50  33  48 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     23  40  28  40 /  10  10  20  20
SPUR          25  41  30  42 /  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     27  42  31  43 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 282313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY WARM AIR ALOFT AS SWLY FLOW
INCREASES OVERHEAD. THIS AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF EXCEPTION
SUNDAY AFTN KLBB AND KPVW WHERE CONDITIONS COULD TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE. UNTIL THEN THIS SETUP FAVORS LIFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME -FZDZ OVERNIGHT /ALTHOUGH
WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HOW WIDESPREAD THAT PHENOMENON WILL BE/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.

DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  47  26  48 /  10  10  20  20
TULIA         23  44  26  44 /  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     24  45  28  45 /  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     25  49  31  48 /  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       24  46  31  47 /  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   27  53  34  51 /  10  10  30  30
BROWNFIELD    26  50  33  48 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     23  40  28  40 /  10  10  20  20
SPUR          25  41  30  42 /  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     27  42  31  43 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 282313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
513 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
SHALLOW MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS UNDERNEATH INCREASINGLY WARM AIR ALOFT AS SWLY FLOW
INCREASES OVERHEAD. THIS AIR MASS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF EXCEPTION
SUNDAY AFTN KLBB AND KPVW WHERE CONDITIONS COULD TEMPORARILY
IMPROVE. UNTIL THEN THIS SETUP FAVORS LIFR CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME -FZDZ OVERNIGHT /ALTHOUGH
WILL LEAVE THAT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
IN HOW WIDESPREAD THAT PHENOMENON WILL BE/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.

DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  47  26  48 /  10  10  20  20
TULIA         23  44  26  44 /  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     24  45  28  45 /  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     25  49  31  48 /  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       24  46  31  47 /  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   27  53  34  51 /  10  10  30  30
BROWNFIELD    26  50  33  48 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     23  40  28  40 /  10  10  20  20
SPUR          25  41  30  42 /  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     27  42  31  43 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 282153
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.

DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  47  26  48 /  10  10  20  20
TULIA         23  44  26  44 /  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     24  45  28  45 /  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     25  49  31  48 /  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       24  46  31  47 /  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   27  53  34  51 /  10  10  30  30
BROWNFIELD    26  50  33  48 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     23  40  28  40 /  10  10  20  20
SPUR          25  41  30  42 /  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     27  42  31  43 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 282153
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.

DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  47  26  48 /  10  10  20  20
TULIA         23  44  26  44 /  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     24  45  28  45 /  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     25  49  31  48 /  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       24  46  31  47 /  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   27  53  34  51 /  10  10  30  30
BROWNFIELD    26  50  33  48 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     23  40  28  40 /  10  10  20  20
SPUR          25  41  30  42 /  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     27  42  31  43 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 282153
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCALES TO NEAR
30 IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGING KEEPS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
ATOP YESTERDAY/S SNOWPACK. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA...WILL USHER IN INCREASING DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH ONLY SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS CONFINED TO
TRACE AMOUNTS. THE OTHER CONCERN OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FREEZING FOG. WITH THE LACK OF SNOWMELT TODAY DUE TO TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING...DO NOT THINK VISIBILITIES WILL CRATER
ACROSS WIDESPREAD AREAS AT THIS TIME...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MENTION QUIET IN THE ONGOING FORECAST AND LET ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS
TRENDS THIS EVENING AS TO ALTITUDE OF STRATUS LAYER.

DECREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR
OUT OF MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
THE COVERAGE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD WARM TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY MID-LATE MORNING...KEEPING ANY DRIZZLE IN
THE LIQUID VARIETY UPON IMPACT WITH THE GROUND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BACKDOOR IN DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF OKLAHOMA...BUT ANY
APPRECIABLE SURGE IN MOISTURE TO BRING MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOKS TO LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW-MID 40S EAST AND MID 40S-MID 50S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AS THE INFILTRATION OF COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO APPEAR
MORE AND MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS COLD SURFACE RIDGING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
REGIME BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT WILL
THEN TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. THE LACK OF DEEP LIFT AND SATURATION SHOULD KEEP PRECIP
AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. HIGH TEMPS STILL NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 40S THOUGH ON MONDAY. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND RACE NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE
TROUGH RELOADS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A DRY
SLOT WORK INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES...AND GUSTY...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SEND TEMPS SOARING /AT LEAST RELATIVE TO OUR RECENT COLD
SPELL/ INTO THE 60S...AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. THIS BRUSH WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE NEXT
SURGE OF COLD AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AT LEAST PART OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE
PROFILE LOOKS VERY COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH NO HINT OF A WARM NOSE.
HIGHS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND WE ARE INDICATING ALL SNOW AT
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS LIMITED
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CUT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BEYOND
WED...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ENERGY AND TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN
SITUATED TO OUR WEST IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN. WE SHOULD SEE A
PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS CENTERED ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WEAK AND/OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ASIDE FROM TEMPERING A WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  47  26  48 /  10  10  20  20
TULIA         23  44  26  44 /  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     24  45  28  45 /  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     25  49  31  48 /  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       24  46  31  47 /  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   27  53  34  51 /  10  10  30  30
BROWNFIELD    26  50  33  48 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     23  40  28  40 /  10  10  20  20
SPUR          25  41  30  42 /  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     27  42  31  43 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281824
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOW WARMING TREND THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
READINGS MAKE IT INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S
IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
WARMER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY BEYOND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACTUALLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE SEEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW FADE THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT
ANY MENTION OF NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON CONFINED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL DRYING MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...BUT
THIS AGAIN SHOULD AMOUNT TO NO MORE THAN A TRACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS HOLDING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR RIDING
ATOP A MUCH COOLER SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...MORESO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME AS MID TO
UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN MUCH DRIER. MAY SEE SOME FOG
MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY SITE
TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.

PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        26  24  49  27 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         26  25  49  27 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     27  25  52  30 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     29  27  52  33 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       27  25  51  32 /  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   30  29  65  36 /  20  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    30  27  60  34 /  20  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     27  26  47  30 /  40  10  20  20
SPUR          28  26  53  31 /  30  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     30  28  55  34 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 281824
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOW WARMING TREND THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
READINGS MAKE IT INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S
IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
WARMER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY BEYOND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACTUALLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE SEEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW FADE THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT
ANY MENTION OF NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON CONFINED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL DRYING MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...BUT
THIS AGAIN SHOULD AMOUNT TO NO MORE THAN A TRACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS HOLDING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR RIDING
ATOP A MUCH COOLER SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...MORESO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME AS MID TO
UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN MUCH DRIER. MAY SEE SOME FOG
MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY SITE
TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.

PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        26  24  49  27 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         26  25  49  27 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     27  25  52  30 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     29  27  52  33 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       27  25  51  32 /  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   30  29  65  36 /  20  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    30  27  60  34 /  20  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     27  26  47  30 /  40  10  20  20
SPUR          28  26  53  31 /  30  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     30  28  55  34 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281824
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOW WARMING TREND THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
READINGS MAKE IT INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S
IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
WARMER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY BEYOND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACTUALLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE SEEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW FADE THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT
ANY MENTION OF NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON CONFINED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL DRYING MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...BUT
THIS AGAIN SHOULD AMOUNT TO NO MORE THAN A TRACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS HOLDING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR RIDING
ATOP A MUCH COOLER SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...MORESO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME AS MID TO
UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN MUCH DRIER. MAY SEE SOME FOG
MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY SITE
TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.

PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        26  24  49  27 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         26  25  49  27 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     27  25  52  30 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     29  27  52  33 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       27  25  51  32 /  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   30  29  65  36 /  20  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    30  27  60  34 /  20  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     27  26  47  30 /  40  10  20  20
SPUR          28  26  53  31 /  30  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     30  28  55  34 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 281824
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOW WARMING TREND THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE
READINGS MAKE IT INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 30S
IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
WARMER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD
FAIRLY STEADY BEYOND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ACTUALLY RISING A FEW
DEGREES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE SEEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND OCCASIONAL
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW FADE THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO HAVE KEPT
ANY MENTION OF NON-MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON CONFINED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS MID-UPPER
LEVEL DRYING MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL SEE A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCES FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH A SOMEWHAT BETTER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT...BUT
THIS AGAIN SHOULD AMOUNT TO NO MORE THAN A TRACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS HOLDING STRONG THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS DUE TO WARM AIR RIDING
ATOP A MUCH COOLER SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...MORESO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A SURGE OF MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME AS MID TO
UPPER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN MUCH DRIER. MAY SEE SOME FOG
MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN OCCURRENCE AT ANY SITE
TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.

PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        26  24  49  27 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         26  25  49  27 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     27  25  52  30 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     29  27  52  33 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       27  25  51  32 /  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   30  29  65  36 /  20  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    30  27  60  34 /  20  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     27  26  47  30 /  40  10  20  20
SPUR          28  26  53  31 /  30  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     30  28  55  34 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS SHOW NO SIGN OF BUDGING THROUGH
12Z SUN. LIGHT FZDZ AND -SN AT LBB AND PVW RESPECTIVELY ARE NOT
AMOUNTING TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS AND SHOULD END BY MID/LATE
MORNING...SO AN AIRPORT WX WARNING IS UNLIKELY AT LBB.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS MAY CRATER TO 100 FEET AT ALL TERMINALS
INCLUDING CDS AS INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK. MODELS SUGGEST DENSE FOG AS WELL IN THIS
SETUP...BUT NEITHER OF THESE THREATS WILL BE ENTERTAINED IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.

PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281022
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.

PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  29  49  27 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         29  28  49  27 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     29  28  52  30 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     31  30  52  33 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       29  28  51  32 /  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   33  32  65  36 /  20  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    32  31  60  34 /  20  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     29  28  47  30 /  40  10  20  20
SPUR          30  29  53  31 /  30  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     32  31  55  34 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 281022
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
422 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WESTERLY EXTENSION OF COLD SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS ON TRACK TO
LINGER FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE WINDS FAIL TO VEER TO THE
SW. PREDOMINANTLY SELY FETCH WILL KEEP CHILLY SOURCE TRAJECTORIES
IN THE OFFING...BUT TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A BIT TONIGHT
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES/ ONCE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGING RELAXES AND OPENS THE DOOR TO MILDER 850MB TEMPS AND SW
WINDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS DO APPEAR OVERLY GENEROUS FOR THIS
PATTERN... SO SIDED MORE WITH THE COLDER BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS
AND RAW 06Z NAM.

PRECIP-WISE...A WEAK BUT STEADY REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
CURRENTLY BEING AUGMENTED BY A MINOR TROUGH AROUND 700MB IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND LIFT HAVE BEEN
RELEGATED TO THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR A RETREATING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT REGION SHOULD ONLY
GARNER SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...SATURATED LAYERS
TREND SHALLOWER AND HAVE BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIX. AS TEMPS ALOFT IN THE STRATUS
CONTINUE WARMING THIS MORNING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BECOME
MORE COMMON BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE SLIM TO NIL. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE LATER THIS MORNING...THE
CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION. MEASURABLE POPS
WERE SCALED BACK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER BOUT
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE /NO ACCUMS EXPECTED/ APPEARS LIKELY TONIGHT AS
STRATUS HANGS TIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWERS IN RESPONSE TO RICHER
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NWD. ON THAT NOTE...MOS AND VARIOUS RAW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG ADVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS TONIGHT...BUT HISTORICALLY WE TEND NOT TO SEE 1/4 MILE OR
LESS VISBYS ATOP A SNOW PACK UNLESS SNOW MELT IS A GREATER FACTOR.
FOG INGREDIENTS ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THIS
SETUP...SO WILL OMIT FOG MENTION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...
TWO CONCERNS HEADING INTO SUNDAY ARE HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK
WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE. PLAN MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SKIES CLEARING OUT BUT SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE KEEP A SATURATED LAYER ROUGHLY BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET. WITH THE SNOWPACK NOT MELTING MUCH TODAY AND THE
LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING...UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA THAT SAW THE GREATEST SNOWFALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
TRY TO PUSH TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOME
WEAK LIFT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...PRECIPITATION
TYPE REMAINS TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT OPTED TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...MODELS KEEP THE TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING BUT A
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL GET A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODELS SHOW SURFACE WIND SWINGING TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BUMP UP THE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING POTENTIAL AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT
ANY CLOUD COVER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY AS WELL AS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY SNOWPACK
REMAINS BUT EXPECT TO SEE MOST OF THIS MELT AWAY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISLODGE ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD
AIR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS CURRENT AIRMASS IS WHICH WILL
HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON TUESDAY BACK
DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND DROPPED OUR TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE WEST COAST TROF
WILL START TO PUSH EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF AXIS EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WORKS BACK INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARM UP WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS
TAKE ANOTHER TROF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROF SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT
WE SHOULD NOT SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT COULD SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES WARM UP.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  29  49  27 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         29  28  49  27 /  30  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     29  28  52  30 /  30  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     31  30  52  33 /  20  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       29  28  51  32 /  30  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   33  32  65  36 /  20  10   0  20
BROWNFIELD    32  31  60  34 /  20  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     29  28  47  30 /  40  10  20  20
SPUR          30  29  53  31 /  30  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     32  31  55  34 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14





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