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000
FXUS64 KLUB 011120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO FOG HAS CAUSED VIS TO DROP TO VFR AT KLBB AND
IFR AT KCDS. CONDITIONS HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED ABOVE 6SM AT KPVW.
FURTHERMORE...LIFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT KCDS...IFR DECKS AT KLBB AND
MVFR DECKS AT KPVW. WILL EXPECT BOTH VIS AND DECKS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH SUSTAINED AT 18-19 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 24 KTS. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
THEREAFTER...NORTH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO BELOW 12 KTS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST PARTICULARY AT KLBB AND
KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...AND RESULTED IN A RECORD
BREAKING RAINFALL FOR KLBB...WAS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING GIVEN ITS SRN LATITUDE...HOWEVER MOIST GROUNDS
AND LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS /WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE/ AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VIS HAVE RANGED FROM 7 MILES AT KPVW...4 MILES
AT KLBB AND 3 MILES AT KCDS PER 08Z METARS. VIS CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER AT KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY GIVEN THE W-SW WIND...WHICH IS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT AIDS IN DRIER CONDITIONS /VERSUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AT KCDS/. VIS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...THAT IS UNTIL AN UA SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION AOA 12Z AND CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO
THE W-NW AND FINALLY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS
DROPPING FROM 0.60-0.75 INCHES DOWN TO BELOW 0.50 INCHES AFTER THE
FROPA...THUS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS AND SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING
FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HENCE DRIZZLE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 3 HOURS SUGGEST NRLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH EARLY THIS AFTN. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
DECLINING WIND SPEEDS WHILST WINDS VEER TO THE E-NE.

CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AS LEE
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ERN NM UNDERNEATH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW. THESE
BREEZY SW TO WEST WINDS TO USHER IN A WARMING TREND...PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING
SEWD IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NWLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SO POPS TO REMAIN BELOW MENTION. TEMPS BRIEFLY COOLER
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN OF A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT POINT TO MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  22  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         43  21  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  23  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  24  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  23  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  25  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  25  53  31 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  23  48  35 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          49  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  24  50  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 011120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
OBSTRUCTIONS DUE TO FOG HAS CAUSED VIS TO DROP TO VFR AT KLBB AND
IFR AT KCDS. CONDITIONS HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED ABOVE 6SM AT KPVW.
FURTHERMORE...LIFR DECKS ARE OCCURRING AT KCDS...IFR DECKS AT KLBB AND
MVFR DECKS AT KPVW. WILL EXPECT BOTH VIS AND DECKS TO IMPROVE TO
VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH SUSTAINED AT 18-19 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 24 KTS. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE
THEREAFTER...NORTH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE TO BELOW 12 KTS.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST PARTICULARY AT KLBB AND
KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...AND RESULTED IN A RECORD
BREAKING RAINFALL FOR KLBB...WAS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING GIVEN ITS SRN LATITUDE...HOWEVER MOIST GROUNDS
AND LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS /WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE/ AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VIS HAVE RANGED FROM 7 MILES AT KPVW...4 MILES
AT KLBB AND 3 MILES AT KCDS PER 08Z METARS. VIS CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER AT KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY GIVEN THE W-SW WIND...WHICH IS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT AIDS IN DRIER CONDITIONS /VERSUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AT KCDS/. VIS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...THAT IS UNTIL AN UA SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION AOA 12Z AND CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO
THE W-NW AND FINALLY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS
DROPPING FROM 0.60-0.75 INCHES DOWN TO BELOW 0.50 INCHES AFTER THE
FROPA...THUS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS AND SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING
FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HENCE DRIZZLE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 3 HOURS SUGGEST NRLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH EARLY THIS AFTN. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
DECLINING WIND SPEEDS WHILST WINDS VEER TO THE E-NE.

CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AS LEE
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ERN NM UNDERNEATH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW. THESE
BREEZY SW TO WEST WINDS TO USHER IN A WARMING TREND...PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING
SEWD IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NWLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SO POPS TO REMAIN BELOW MENTION. TEMPS BRIEFLY COOLER
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN OF A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT POINT TO MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  22  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         43  21  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  23  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  24  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  23  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  25  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  25  53  31 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  23  48  35 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          49  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  24  50  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010926
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...AND RESULTED IN A RECORD
BREAKING RAINFALL FOR KLBB...WAS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING GIVEN ITS SRN LATITUDE...HOWEVER MOIST GROUNDS
AND LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS /WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE/ AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VIS HAVE RANGED FROM 7 MILES AT KPVW...4 MILES
AT KLBB AND 3 MILES AT KCDS PER 08Z METARS. VIS CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER AT KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY GIVEN THE W-SW WIND...WHICH IS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT AIDS IN DRIER CONDITIONS /VERSUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AT KCDS/. VIS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...THAT IS UNTIL AN UA SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION AOA 12Z AND CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO
THE W-NW AND FINALLY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS
DROPPING FROM 0.60-0.75 INCHES DOWN TO BELOW 0.50 INCHES AFTER THE
FROPA...THUS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS AND SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING
FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HENCE DRIZZLE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 3 HOURS SUGGEST NRLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH EARLY THIS AFTN. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
DECLINING WIND SPEEDS WHILST WINDS VEER TO THE E-NE.

CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AS LEE
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ERN NM UNDERNEATH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW. THESE
BREEZY SW TO WEST WINDS TO USHER IN A WARMING TREND...PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING
SEWD IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NWLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SO POPS TO REMAIN BELOW MENTION. TEMPS BRIEFLY COOLER
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN OF A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT POINT TO MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  22  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         43  21  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  23  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  24  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  23  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  25  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  25  53  31 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  23  48  35 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          49  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  24  50  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010926
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT PROVIDED THE REGION WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...AND RESULTED IN A RECORD
BREAKING RAINFALL FOR KLBB...WAS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS
WRN OLD MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THIS MORNING GIVEN ITS SRN LATITUDE...HOWEVER MOIST GROUNDS
AND LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS /WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE/ AND FOGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VIS HAVE RANGED FROM 7 MILES AT KPVW...4 MILES
AT KLBB AND 3 MILES AT KCDS PER 08Z METARS. VIS CONDITIONS ARE
BETTER AT KLBB AND KPVW LIKELY GIVEN THE W-SW WIND...WHICH IS A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THAT AIDS IN DRIER CONDITIONS /VERSUS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW AT KCDS/. VIS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING...THAT IS UNTIL AN UA SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SENDS DOWN A
COLD FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION AOA 12Z AND CLEARING THE SRN
ZONES BETWEEN 15Z- 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO
THE W-NW AND FINALLY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN PWATS
DROPPING FROM 0.60-0.75 INCHES DOWN TO BELOW 0.50 INCHES AFTER THE
FROPA...THUS DRYING OUT LOW LEVELS AND SCOURING OUT ANY LINGERING
FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND HENCE DRIZZLE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 4-6 MB PER 3 HOURS SUGGEST NRLY
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH EARLY THIS AFTN. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
DECLINING WIND SPEEDS WHILST WINDS VEER TO THE E-NE.

CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THE CAPROCK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN A FAIRLY
STAGNANT WRN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN.
FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND
TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS WEEK.

FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TUESDAY AS LEE
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS ERN NM UNDERNEATH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW. THESE
BREEZY SW TO WEST WINDS TO USHER IN A WARMING TREND...PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS FRONT TO
BE DRIVEN SOUTH BY A FAIRLY STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVING
SEWD IN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED NWLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW...SO POPS TO REMAIN BELOW MENTION. TEMPS BRIEFLY COOLER
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN OF A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT POINT TO MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPS BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  22  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         43  21  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  23  52  32 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  24  53  30 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  23  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   49  25  52  30 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  25  53  31 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  23  48  35 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          49  24  50  32 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  24  50  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010545
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IMPROVED AT KLBB AND KCDS
THROUGH IT IS EXPECTED THAT VARYING FLIGHT RULES WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFYING JUST HOW LOW
THINGS WILL GO AND WHEN IS LOW. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO GO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FCST. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS BELOW LOCAL
MINIMA IS POSSIBLE AS PLENTIFUL MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010545
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IMPROVED AT KLBB AND KCDS
THROUGH IT IS EXPECTED THAT VARYING FLIGHT RULES WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFYING JUST HOW LOW
THINGS WILL GO AND WHEN IS LOW. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO GO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FCST. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS BELOW LOCAL
MINIMA IS POSSIBLE AS PLENTIFUL MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010545
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY IMPROVED AT KLBB AND KCDS
THROUGH IT IS EXPECTED THAT VARYING FLIGHT RULES WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFYING JUST HOW LOW
THINGS WILL GO AND WHEN IS LOW. FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO GO
CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FCST. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS BELOW LOCAL
MINIMA IS POSSIBLE AS PLENTIFUL MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 010145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
745 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...HAVE PULLED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
IN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AROUND
SUNRISE BUT LIKELIHOOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 312341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  40  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 312341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS TO EXPECT AREAWIDE AT LEAST UNTIL 06Z THIS EVENING
BEFORE WESTERLY WINDS FILTER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING FURTHER DRYING THE AIRMASS AND TRENDING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  41  22  54 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         36  44  21  53 /  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  45  22  51 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  46  24  53 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  47  23  52 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  49  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  48  25  52 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     41  50  21  48 /  40  10   0   0
SPUR          42  49  23  50 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  50  23  50 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 312057
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

.LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  44  26  53 /  20  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  25  52 /  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  47  26  51 /  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     36  48  26  52 /  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  47  27  52 /  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   38  52  27  52 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    39  50  27  52 /  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     39  50  26  51 /  50  10   0   0
SPUR          40  49  26  50 /  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  49  27  52 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/24





000
FXUS64 KLUB 312057
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WANES
WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WAS DROPPING SOUTH INTO MEXICO CONTRIBUTING TO
DRYING OUT AT MID LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS WAS RACING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL BRING IN STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE LIFT
IS DEPARTING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH MOIST GROUNDS FROM RAINFALL...FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RID US
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

.LONG TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN GOING INTO THE LONG
RANGE AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
MON. THIS IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE EARLY IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN NM. WHILE TIMING OF THIS ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR DENSE
FOG SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ZNS EARLY IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE MON INTO MID WEEK AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BACKDOOR THROUGH THE PNHDL
DURING THE DAY WED. OPTED TO BRING COOLER HIGHS INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT WHILE ALLOWING FOR GOOD
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND TEMPS EDGING INTO THE 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED EVENING INTO
VERY EARLY THU WITH ANOTHER DECENT SHOT OF MID LEVEL ENERGY IN NW
FLOW ALOFT DIRECTED ACROSS THE PNHDL AND OKLAHOMA. THU STANDS TO
BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH A QUICK WARMUP INTO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND TO END THE WEEK. POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
PRECIP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  44  26  53 /  20  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  25  52 /  30  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  47  26  51 /  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     36  48  26  52 /  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  47  27  52 /  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   38  52  27  52 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    39  50  27  52 /  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     39  50  26  51 /  50  10   0   0
SPUR          40  49  26  50 /  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  49  27  52 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/24




000
FXUS64 KLUB 311744
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS AFTERNOON TO
LATE EVENING CIGS WILL REMAIN IN IFR TO LIFR WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL ALSO KEEP A CHANCE AT LOWERED VISBYS AS WELL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY SCOURING OUT LOW CIGS AND VISBYS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT IFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 311138
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT IFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 311138
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT IFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 311137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT MVFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 311137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY
AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR AT KPVW AND
KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL LIKELY SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLITY AT KPVW AND KLBB AS METARS
REPORTED SCT MVFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS WILL BE COMMON
TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE SITES. EXPECT -RA
TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO MOST OF TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 311123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
523 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RA IS AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING THUS CREATING VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY
OBSTRUCTIONS...PARTICULARY AT KLBB AND KPVW. DECKS HAVE DROPPED
TO MVFR AT KPVW AND KLBB...WITH VFR DECKS OCCURRING AT KCDS. WILL
LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR DECKS LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH HINTS OF THAT ALSO BEING A POSSIBLE AT KPVW AND
KLBB AS METARS REPORTED SCT MVFR DECKS. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WEST NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. BKN VFR TO MVFR DECKS
WILL BE COMMON TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES ONCE THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF THE
SITES. EXPECT -RA TO AFFECT KPVW AND KLBB THROUGH EARLY/LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EAST...WITH LINGERING -RA AT KCDS INTO
MOST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 310853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 310853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW ACROSS SERN NV/NWRN AZ CONTINUED TO PROVIDE NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS CONTINUED TO PUMP MID-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME
HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO ENVELOPE
THE AREA...LEADING TO PWATS IN THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE EARLY THIS
MORNING /HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS INCLUDING MORE THAN ADEQUATE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW HAS RESULTED IN THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS. TEXAS TECH MESONET
SITES HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO PER HOUR THUS FAR. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE NWRN SOUTH PLAINS
WHICH COULD POSE A RISK OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MIXING IN WITH SNOW.
HOWEVER...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK RATHER LACKLUSTER GIVEN
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION AS
WELL AS A PREVALENT WARM NOSE AOA 800 MB. THOUGH...PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS AT FRIONA SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF THE WARM NOSE
DETERIORATING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WITH A TEMP OF 33 F...IT
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. A PHONE CALL TO EMERGENCY PERSONNEL RESULTED
IN ONLY RAIN FALLING AND NOT SNOW ATTM. IF IT DOES MANAGE TO
SNOW...THE /WET/ SNOWFALL THAT WILL MORE SO ACCUMULATE ON GRASSES
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN 1.00 INCH AS HINTED AT BY THE NAM...GFS
AND NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS THANKS TO A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIRMASS. IN REGARD TO RAINFALL TOTALS...1/2 INCH TO 1.00 INCH
WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT MAKING FOR A BENEFICIAL SOAKING.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS
AFTN AS DRYER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE TOP DOWN HENCE EVIDENT OF
DECREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THIS PROBABLY DUE TO THE THE UA LOW
BEING A BIT TO FAR SOUTH AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT SE TO ACROSS
THE BAJA OF CALI/WRN OLD MEXICO...RESULTING IN UNSHARPENED SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE LINGERING RAINFALL /AND PERHAPS VERY LIGHT
SNOW MIXED IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES/ TONIGHT BEFORE THE ACTIVITY
FINALLY EXITS THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BKN
CLOUD COVER VERSUS OVC SKIES MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM
INTO THE 40S. TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LEADING TO INCREASED INSOLATION WILL SEE TEMPS WARM SOME
OVER TODAYS HIGHS.

BEYOND SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRY NWLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT PUSHING OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT SWD AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A HALT TO WARMING CAUSED
BY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  32  44  26 /  80  20  10   0
TULIA         42  35  46  25 /  90  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  36  47  26 /  90  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     46  36  48  26 /  90  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       45  36  47  27 /  90  30  10   0
DENVER CITY   49  38  52  27 /  80  20  10   0
BROWNFIELD    48  39  50  27 /  90  20  10   0
CHILDRESS     44  39  50  26 /  90  50  10   0
SPUR          46  40  49  26 /  90  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     48  43  49  27 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 310505
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH SHOULD FALL THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP LAYER LIFT
AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WAS TO BACK OFF FURTHER ON SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AS VEERING WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION SET IN PLACE. LOCAL
AMDAR/ACARS DATA ALSO DEPICT A WARM NOSE WITHIN THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 30S IN
THESE LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL VERTICAL PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST
LOW ENOUGH ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FOR MUCH FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT
THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR MOSTLY RAIN...WILL LET
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH INTO
NORTHWESTERN PARMER COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS VISIBILITIES ALSO BECOME RESTRICTED WITH RAIN
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. MAY SEE LIFR OR EVEN PERIODS OF VLIFR
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS RAIN CONTINUES. ANY THREAT OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH LOCAL PIREP REPORT DID RECORD LIGHT RIME ICING
AT FL110.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF LIFT IS STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN A WEST TO EAST TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS AN
AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 SPAN ACROSS THE FA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A VERY SLOW SATURATION OFF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW LEVELS NOT
BECOMING SATURATED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. BY THE TIME THE COLUMN DOES
SATURATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE FOR
JANUARY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8 INCHES ON THE CAPROCK AND
1 INCH OFF THE CAPROCK.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERPOWER
ANYTHING ELSE LEADING TO MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LESS WAA WILL BE SEEN. WITH A
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION....ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONG WAA
REGIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL. THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

LONG TERM...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING JUST NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL
SURGE...WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTER THESE TRENDS AND LIKELY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL. SO WE HAVE RETAINED DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BUT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND
BREEZES TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FROM THERE...DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A DECENT WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO COME IS A MODERATE
STRENGTH THOUGH SHALLOW CANADIAN COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A SURFACE 1040-ISH
MILLIBAR SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE SEE MAINLY THURSDAY AS A COOL DAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AND IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY THEN WITH A FLAT RIDGE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  32  41  32 /  70 100  80  20
TULIA         46  36  42  35 /  60 100  90  30
PLAINVIEW     46  37  43  36 /  50 100  90  30
LEVELLAND     44  37  45  36 /  60 100  90  20
LUBBOCK       44  38  45  36 /  50 100  90  30
DENVER CITY   45  37  49  38 /  70 100  80  20
BROWNFIELD    46  38  47  39 /  50 100  90  20
CHILDRESS     49  38  43  39 /  20  90  90  50
SPUR          49  38  45  40 /  20 100  90  40
ASPERMONT     47  40  48  43 /  20  90 100  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 310505
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH SHOULD FALL THROUGH SATURDAY AS DEEP LAYER LIFT
AND MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. ONLY CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
WAS TO BACK OFF FURTHER ON SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AS VEERING WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION SET IN PLACE. LOCAL
AMDAR/ACARS DATA ALSO DEPICT A WARM NOSE WITHIN THE LOWEST SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 30S IN
THESE LOCATIONS...BUT OVERALL VERTICAL PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST
LOW ENOUGH ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION FOR MUCH FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT
THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR MOSTLY RAIN...WILL LET
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR ALL AS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH INTO
NORTHWESTERN PARMER COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS VISIBILITIES ALSO BECOME RESTRICTED WITH RAIN
INCREASING IN INTENSITY. MAY SEE LIFR OR EVEN PERIODS OF VLIFR
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS RAIN CONTINUES. ANY THREAT OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF
SITES...ALTHOUGH LOCAL PIREP REPORT DID RECORD LIGHT RIME ICING
AT FL110.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF LIFT IS STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN A WEST TO EAST TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS AN
AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 SPAN ACROSS THE FA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A VERY SLOW SATURATION OFF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW LEVELS NOT
BECOMING SATURATED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. BY THE TIME THE COLUMN DOES
SATURATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE FOR
JANUARY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8 INCHES ON THE CAPROCK AND
1 INCH OFF THE CAPROCK.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERPOWER
ANYTHING ELSE LEADING TO MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LESS WAA WILL BE SEEN. WITH A
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION....ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONG WAA
REGIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL. THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

LONG TERM...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING JUST NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL
SURGE...WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTER THESE TRENDS AND LIKELY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL. SO WE HAVE RETAINED DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BUT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND
BREEZES TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FROM THERE...DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A DECENT WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO COME IS A MODERATE
STRENGTH THOUGH SHALLOW CANADIAN COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A SURFACE 1040-ISH
MILLIBAR SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE SEE MAINLY THURSDAY AS A COOL DAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AND IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY THEN WITH A FLAT RIDGE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  32  41  32 /  70 100  80  20
TULIA         46  36  42  35 /  60 100  90  30
PLAINVIEW     46  37  43  36 /  50 100  90  30
LEVELLAND     44  37  45  36 /  60 100  90  20
LUBBOCK       44  38  45  36 /  50 100  90  30
DENVER CITY   45  37  49  38 /  70 100  80  20
BROWNFIELD    46  38  47  39 /  50 100  90  20
CHILDRESS     49  38  43  39 /  20  90  90  50
SPUR          49  38  45  40 /  20 100  90  40
ASPERMONT     47  40  48  43 /  20  90 100  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 302348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ASHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
KPVW AND KLBB LOWER FROM MVFR CURRENTLY TO AT LEAST IFR BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS BOTH TERMINALS. MAY SEE LIFR
OR EVEN VLIFR AT TIMES...BUT WILL WAIT TO PINPOINT ANY MENTION OF
THIS UNTIL NEXT ISSUANCE OR TWO. KCDS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY AS TO REACHING IFR
CONDITIONS. ANY SNOW OR OTHER FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO REMAIN CONFINED NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF LIFT IS STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN A WEST TO EAST TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS AN
AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 SPAN ACROSS THE FA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A VERY SLOW SATURATION OFF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW LEVELS NOT
BECOMING SATURATED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. BY THE TIME THE COLUMN DOES
SATURATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE FOR
JANUARY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8 INCHES ON THE CAPROCK AND
1 INCH OFF THE CAPROCK.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERPOWER
ANYTHING ELSE LEADING TO MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LESS WAA WILL BE SEEN. WITH A
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION....ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONG WAA
REGIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL. THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

LONG TERM...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING JUST NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL
SURGE...WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTER THESE TRENDS AND LIKELY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL. SO WE HAVE RETAINED DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BUT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND
BREEZES TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FROM THERE...DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A DECENT WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO COME IS A MODERATE
STRENGTH THOUGH SHALLOW CANADIAN COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A SURFACE 1040-ISH
MILLIBAR SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE SEE MAINLY THURSDAY AS A COOL DAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AND IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY THEN WITH A FLAT RIDGE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  41  32  42 / 100  80  20  10
TULIA         35  42  35  44 / 100  90  30  10
PLAINVIEW     36  43  36  46 / 100  90  30  10
LEVELLAND     36  45  36  48 / 100  90  20  10
LUBBOCK       37  45  36  49 / 100  90  30  10
DENVER CITY   36  49  38  48 / 100  80  20  10
BROWNFIELD    37  47  39  49 / 100  90  20  10
CHILDRESS     38  43  39  50 /  90  90  50  10
SPUR          38  45  40  50 / 100  90  40  10
ASPERMONT     40  48  43  51 /  90 100  60  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 302348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ASHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS
KPVW AND KLBB LOWER FROM MVFR CURRENTLY TO AT LEAST IFR BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS BOTH TERMINALS. MAY SEE LIFR
OR EVEN VLIFR AT TIMES...BUT WILL WAIT TO PINPOINT ANY MENTION OF
THIS UNTIL NEXT ISSUANCE OR TWO. KCDS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY AS TO REACHING IFR
CONDITIONS. ANY SNOW OR OTHER FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO REMAIN CONFINED NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF LIFT IS STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN A WEST TO EAST TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS AN
AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 SPAN ACROSS THE FA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A VERY SLOW SATURATION OFF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW LEVELS NOT
BECOMING SATURATED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. BY THE TIME THE COLUMN DOES
SATURATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE FOR
JANUARY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8 INCHES ON THE CAPROCK AND
1 INCH OFF THE CAPROCK.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERPOWER
ANYTHING ELSE LEADING TO MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LESS WAA WILL BE SEEN. WITH A
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION....ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONG WAA
REGIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL. THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

LONG TERM...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING JUST NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL
SURGE...WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTER THESE TRENDS AND LIKELY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL. SO WE HAVE RETAINED DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BUT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND
BREEZES TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FROM THERE...DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A DECENT WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO COME IS A MODERATE
STRENGTH THOUGH SHALLOW CANADIAN COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A SURFACE 1040-ISH
MILLIBAR SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE SEE MAINLY THURSDAY AS A COOL DAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AND IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY THEN WITH A FLAT RIDGE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  41  32  42 / 100  80  20  10
TULIA         35  42  35  44 / 100  90  30  10
PLAINVIEW     36  43  36  46 / 100  90  30  10
LEVELLAND     36  45  36  48 / 100  90  20  10
LUBBOCK       37  45  36  49 / 100  90  30  10
DENVER CITY   36  49  38  48 / 100  80  20  10
BROWNFIELD    37  47  39  49 / 100  90  20  10
CHILDRESS     38  43  39  50 /  90  90  50  10
SPUR          38  45  40  50 / 100  90  40  10
ASPERMONT     40  48  43  51 /  90 100  60  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 302044
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
244 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST PUMPING UP THE MOISTURE INTO WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT OF LIFT IS STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN A WEST TO EAST TAPERING OFF ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS AN
AREA OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT SHORT
WAVE RIDGING HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE COLUMN TO COMPLETELY
SATURATE ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 SPAN ACROSS THE FA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW A VERY SLOW SATURATION OFF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW LEVELS NOT
BECOMING SATURATED UNTIL AFTER 06Z. BY THE TIME THE COLUMN DOES
SATURATE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE RESPECTABLE FOR
JANUARY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.8 INCHES ON THE CAPROCK AND
1 INCH OFF THE CAPROCK.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERPOWER
ANYTHING ELSE LEADING TO MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LESS WAA WILL BE SEEN. WITH A
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION....ESPECIALLY UNDER STRONG WAA
REGIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND THE
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE SMALL. THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

.LONG TERM...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE
DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST. AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING JUST NORTH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL
SURGE...WILL ATTEMPT TO COUNTER THESE TRENDS AND LIKELY WILL BE
UNSUCCESSFUL. SO WE HAVE RETAINED DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY. BUT
ANOTHER COOL DAY SHOULD FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND
BREEZES TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FROM THERE...DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL START THE WEEK
WITH A DECENT WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO COME IS A MODERATE
STRENGTH THOUGH SHALLOW CANADIAN COLD FRONT DUE IN LATE WEDNESDAY.
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH A SURFACE 1040-ISH
MILLIBAR SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN
THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT WE SEE MAINLY THURSDAY AS A COOL DAY
FOLLOWED BY WARMING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AND IT COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BY THEN WITH A FLAT RIDGE SHIFTING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  41  32  42 / 100  80  20  10
TULIA         35  42  35  44 / 100  90  30  10
PLAINVIEW     36  43  36  46 / 100  90  30  10
LEVELLAND     36  45  36  48 / 100  90  20  10
LUBBOCK       37  45  36  49 / 100  90  30  10
DENVER CITY   36  49  38  48 / 100  80  20  10
BROWNFIELD    37  47  39  49 / 100  90  20  10
CHILDRESS     38  43  39  50 /  90  90  50  10
SPUR          38  45  40  50 / 100  90  40  10
ASPERMONT     40  48  43  51 /  90 100  60  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 301730
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW MIXING
IN. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FURTHER WORSEN TO IFR DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST
TOP- DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800
MB-750 MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL
PROMOTE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES
VERSUS LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH
PWATS /0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
COOL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK
AND RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE
USUAL BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE
NEXT FEW SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE
ALL LIQUID BY LATE AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 301730
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW MIXING
IN. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FURTHER WORSEN TO IFR DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST
TOP- DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800
MB-750 MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL
PROMOTE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES
VERSUS LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH
PWATS /0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL
COOL ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK
AND RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE
USUAL BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND
THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE
NEXT FEW SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY
SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING
OCCURRING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE
ALL LIQUID BY LATE AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A
RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 301126
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...DUE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE HINTS OF DECKS
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW...JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
CYCLE. WIDESPREAD -RA WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A -RA/-SN MIX OCCURRING MORE SO
AT KLBB AND KPVW. WILL KEEP ONLY A -RA MENTION FOR NOW AS -SN WILL
LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800 MB-750
MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL PROMOTE
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES VERSUS
LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH PWATS
/0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND
RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE USUAL
BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE NW
SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 301126
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...DUE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE HINTS OF DECKS
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW...JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
CYCLE. WIDESPREAD -RA WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A -RA/-SN MIX OCCURRING MORE SO
AT KLBB AND KPVW. WILL KEEP ONLY A -RA MENTION FOR NOW AS -SN WILL
LIKELY BE INTERMITTENT...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800 MB-750
MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL PROMOTE
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES VERSUS
LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH PWATS
/0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND
RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE USUAL
BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE NW
SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 300951
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800 MB-750
MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL PROMOTE
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES VERSUS
LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH PWATS
/0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND
RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE USUAL
BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE NW
SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 300951
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS AN UA LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST
JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PROMOTED SW FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS STREAM
A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RESULT IS SCT-OVC
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...A SFC RIDGE WAS NOTED NE OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEREBY AIDING SFC WINDS TO BE OF AN E-NE COMPONENT PER 08Z
METARS. THIS SLIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT HAS GARNERED PWATS TO
INCREASE TO AOA 0.50 INCHES SO FAR. RADAR TRENDS DISPLAYED LIGHT
ECHOES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND FAR SW SOUTH PLAINS...WHICH IS
INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT HAS COMMENCED TO
SHIFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW. WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW SOUTH PLAINS...THE PRECIP TYPE IS LIQUID. IN
FACT...THE SEMINOLE METAR HAS INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED DRIZZLE.
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
LIGHT PRECIP...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TTU WRF WHICH SHOWS THIS
LIGHT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
PERHAPS SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST...THOUGH WANING WITH
TIME.

LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTN...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E-SE
AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES SE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ONLY ENCOURAGE PWATS TO INCREASE INTO THE
0.75-0.85 INCH RANGE...WITH HIGHEST PWATS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN AND
SWRN ONES.  MODEL SOLUTIONS DO AGREE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
ALSO INCREASE A BIT /PARTICULARY ACROSS THE WRN ZONES/ WHILST TOP-
DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS. A WELL-DEFINED WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800 MB-750
MB AND SFC TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S WILL PROMOTE
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX /RAIN AND SNOW/ ACROSS THE WRN ZONES VERSUS
LIQUID RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...BOTH PWATS
/0.75-1.00 INCH/ AND UL SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE UA LOW NEARS NWRN OLD MEXICO. TEMPS ALOFT WILL COOL
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SOUTH
PLAINS...HENCE RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SNOWFALL. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND
RAINFALL OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THE SAID TIME-PERIOD. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NATIONAL SNOWFALL MODELS AND EVEN THE USUAL
BULLISH GFS MODEL HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE /WET/ SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...BY SHOWING 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NW SOUTH PLAINS. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH 1-4 INCHES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND TAPERED DOWN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT...LEANING MORE SO TOWARDS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE NW
SOUTH PLAINS. AS SUCH...WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT FEW
SHIFTS SEE IF RADAR TRENDS DO INDEED SHOW ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
TOMORROW...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING BUT WILL BE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM
WEST TO EAST. TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND A SOME DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL CAUSE THE PRECIP TYPE TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE
AFTN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /COULD STILL SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NW ZONES/.

PER 08Z METARS...TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. WITH CONTINUED MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER /AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING/...TEMPS WILL
LIKELY NOT WARM MUCH THAN WHAT IT IS THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NW TO THE UPPER 30S
SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE 40S TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP EVENT TO WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. THE NRN PIECE IS PROGGED TO
GET CAUGHT UP WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND AS IT DOES IT BRINGS THE LAST BIT OF LIFT TO THE
AREA...MAINLY ERN ZONES WHERE ONE LAST ROUND OF PRECIP IS MOST
LIKELY. PREVIOUS IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE WEST WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX
AND CHANCE POPS EAST WITH ALL RAIN STILL LOOK FINE. AS THAT TROUGH
EXITS A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE SRN SPLIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SAG SWD OVER
NWRN MEXICO BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TO SRN BAJA CALIF
BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BETWEEN THE
TWO SPLITS ON SUNDAY COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF SUNDAYS FCST. THIS SRN LOW
WILL THEN LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA...EVENTUALLY
EJECTING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WRN CONUS. ONLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKING TO BE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN TEMPS PEAK IN THE 60S THEN DROP BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL NORMS TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  29  41  31 /  70  80  50  20
TULIA         40  33  42  33 /  60  80  70  30
PLAINVIEW     40  34  43  34 /  50  90  70  30
LEVELLAND     38  33  45  33 /  60  90  70  20
LUBBOCK       38  35  44  34 /  50  90  70  30
DENVER CITY   39  33  48  36 /  70  90  60  20
BROWNFIELD    40  35  47  36 /  50  90  70  20
CHILDRESS     43  35  44  37 /  20  80  80  50
SPUR          43  35  45  38 /  20  80  80  40
ASPERMONT     41  37  48  40 /  20  80  90  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 300548
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH KLBB
AND KPVW LIKELY SEEING MVFR CEILINGS BY 00-01Z SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN KCDS SEEING SUB-VFR CEILINGS PRIOR
TO 06Z SATURDAY TO INSERT MENTION AT THIS TIME. -RA WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO IMPACT ALL SITES AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO REMAIN WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. A NOTABLE DRY
LAYER BELOW 750 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXISTENCE OF THIS LAYER ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER. SHOWERS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPROBABLE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS. A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
JUT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT A VERY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE BY ANY MEANS FOR LATE JANUARY...AND THERMAL
PROFILES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
BORDER...WITH A PHASE TRANSITION LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES THOUGH A BRIEF SLEET OR SNOW SHOWER CENTRAL ZONES ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW NORTHWEST BORDER WITH OUTSIDE
RISK OF MAYBE ANOTHER INCH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS GO-AROUND. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOIST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK
TO END SATURDAY EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOSTLY RAIN FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER UNDER
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
WEAKER WAA WILL BE SEEN. SNOW TOTALS UP TO FOUR INCHES WOULD BE
LIKELY AND MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
-2 TO 0C. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY DIPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER INTERRUPTION TO THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  31  35  29 /   0  20  60  80
TULIA         53  32  40  33 /   0  10  50  80
PLAINVIEW     53  34  40  33 /   0  10  50  90
LEVELLAND     56  33  38  33 /   0  20  60  90
LUBBOCK       56  34  40  34 /   0  10  50  90
DENVER CITY   56  35  39  34 /   0  30  60  90
BROWNFIELD    57  34  40  35 /   0  20  50  90
CHILDRESS     59  34  48  38 /   0   0  20  80
SPUR          58  34  45  36 /   0  10  20  80
ASPERMONT     60  35  48  39 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 300548
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH KLBB
AND KPVW LIKELY SEEING MVFR CEILINGS BY 00-01Z SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN KCDS SEEING SUB-VFR CEILINGS PRIOR
TO 06Z SATURDAY TO INSERT MENTION AT THIS TIME. -RA WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO IMPACT ALL SITES AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO REMAIN WEST OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. A NOTABLE DRY
LAYER BELOW 750 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXISTENCE OF THIS LAYER ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER. SHOWERS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPROBABLE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS. A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
JUT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT A VERY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE BY ANY MEANS FOR LATE JANUARY...AND THERMAL
PROFILES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
BORDER...WITH A PHASE TRANSITION LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES THOUGH A BRIEF SLEET OR SNOW SHOWER CENTRAL ZONES ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW NORTHWEST BORDER WITH OUTSIDE
RISK OF MAYBE ANOTHER INCH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS GO-AROUND. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOIST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK
TO END SATURDAY EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOSTLY RAIN FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER UNDER
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
WEAKER WAA WILL BE SEEN. SNOW TOTALS UP TO FOUR INCHES WOULD BE
LIKELY AND MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
-2 TO 0C. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY DIPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER INTERRUPTION TO THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  31  35  29 /   0  20  60  80
TULIA         53  32  40  33 /   0  10  50  80
PLAINVIEW     53  34  40  33 /   0  10  50  90
LEVELLAND     56  33  38  33 /   0  20  60  90
LUBBOCK       56  34  40  34 /   0  10  50  90
DENVER CITY   56  35  39  34 /   0  30  60  90
BROWNFIELD    57  34  40  35 /   0  20  50  90
CHILDRESS     59  34  48  38 /   0   0  20  80
SPUR          58  34  45  36 /   0  10  20  80
ASPERMONT     60  35  48  39 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 292336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...VEERING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AS CLOUDS THICKEN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN EARNEST. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
AT OR ABOVE FL040...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS OF
RAIN BECOMING A STRONG POSSIBILITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. A NOTABLE DRY
LAYER BELOW 750 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXISTENCE OF THIS LAYER ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER. SHOWERS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPROBABLE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS. A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
JUT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT A VERY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE BY ANY MEANS FOR LATE JANUARY...AND THERMAL
PROFILES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
BORDER...WITH A PHASE TRANSITION LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES THOUGH A BRIEF SLEET OR SNOW SHOWER CENTRAL ZONES ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW NORTHWEST BORDER WITH OUTSIDE
RISK OF MAYBE ANOTHER INCH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS GO-AROUND. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOIST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK
TO END SATURDAY EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOSTLY RAIN FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER UNDER
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
WEAKER WAA WILL BE SEEN. SNOW TOTALS UP TO FOUR INCHES WOULD BE
LIKELY AND MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
-2 TO 0C. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY DIPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER INTERRUPTION TO THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  35  29  37 /  20  60  80  50
TULIA         32  40  33  39 /  10  50  80  70
PLAINVIEW     34  40  33  40 /  10  50  90  70
LEVELLAND     33  38  33  41 /  20  60  90  60
LUBBOCK       34  40  34  42 /  10  50  90  70
DENVER CITY   35  39  34  42 /  30  60  90  60
BROWNFIELD    34  40  35  42 /  20  50  90  60
CHILDRESS     34  48  38  44 /   0  20  80  80
SPUR          34  45  36  43 /  10  20  80  80
ASPERMONT     35  48  39  44 /   0  20  80  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 292336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...VEERING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AS CLOUDS THICKEN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN EARNEST. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
AT OR ABOVE FL040...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND SUBSEQUENT PERIODS OF
RAIN BECOMING A STRONG POSSIBILITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. A NOTABLE DRY
LAYER BELOW 750 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXISTENCE OF THIS LAYER ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER. SHOWERS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPROBABLE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS. A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
JUT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT A VERY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE BY ANY MEANS FOR LATE JANUARY...AND THERMAL
PROFILES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
BORDER...WITH A PHASE TRANSITION LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES THOUGH A BRIEF SLEET OR SNOW SHOWER CENTRAL ZONES ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW NORTHWEST BORDER WITH OUTSIDE
RISK OF MAYBE ANOTHER INCH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS GO-AROUND. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOIST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK
TO END SATURDAY EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOSTLY RAIN FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER UNDER
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
WEAKER WAA WILL BE SEEN. SNOW TOTALS UP TO FOUR INCHES WOULD BE
LIKELY AND MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
-2 TO 0C. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY DIPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER INTERRUPTION TO THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  35  29  37 /  20  60  80  50
TULIA         32  40  33  39 /  10  50  80  70
PLAINVIEW     34  40  33  40 /  10  50  90  70
LEVELLAND     33  38  33  41 /  20  60  90  60
LUBBOCK       34  40  34  42 /  10  50  90  70
DENVER CITY   35  39  34  42 /  30  60  90  60
BROWNFIELD    34  40  35  42 /  20  50  90  60
CHILDRESS     34  48  38  44 /   0  20  80  80
SPUR          34  45  36  43 /  10  20  80  80
ASPERMONT     35  48  39  44 /   0  20  80  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 292054
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. A NOTABLE DRY
LAYER BELOW 750 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXISTENCE OF THIS LAYER ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER. SHOWERS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPROBABLE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS. A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
JUT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT A VERY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE BY ANY MEANS FOR LATE JANUARY...AND THERMAL
PROFILES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
BORDER...WITH A PHASE TRANSITION LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES THOUGH A BRIEF SLEET OR SNOW SHOWER CENTRAL ZONES ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW NORTHWEST BORDER WITH OUTSIDE
RISK OF MAYBE ANOTHER INCH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS GO-AROUND. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOIST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK
TO END SATURDAY EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOSTLY RAIN FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER UNDER
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
WEAKER WAA WILL BE SEEN. SNOW TOTALS UP TO FOUR INCHES WOULD BE
LIKELY AND MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
-2 TO 0C. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY DIPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER INTERRUPTION TO THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  35  29  37 /  20  60  80  50
TULIA         32  40  33  39 /  10  50  80  70
PLAINVIEW     34  40  33  40 /  10  50  90  70
LEVELLAND     33  38  33  41 /  20  60  90  60
LUBBOCK       34  40  34  42 /  10  50  90  70
DENVER CITY   35  39  34  42 /  30  60  90  60
BROWNFIELD    34  40  35  42 /  20  50  90  60
CHILDRESS     34  48  38  44 /   0  20  80  80
SPUR          34  45  36  43 /  10  20  80  80
ASPERMONT     35  48  39  44 /   0  20  80  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 292054
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
254 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A MOISTURE LADEN UPPER LOW OFF BAJA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL EDGE EAST FRIDAY
WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPWARDS FORCING WORKING
THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE DAY. A NOTABLE DRY
LAYER BELOW 750 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST
TO EAST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH EXISTENCE OF THIS LAYER ADDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WE HAVE SEEN MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY THIS WINTER. SHOWERS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
MOVE CLOSER OVERNIGHT AND NOT IMPROBABLE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS. A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
JUT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA WITH CENTER TO OUR NORTHEAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT A VERY
COLD SURFACE RIDGE BY ANY MEANS FOR LATE JANUARY...AND THERMAL
PROFILES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUE TO
FAVOR LIQUID PRECIPITATION. DYNAMIC COOLING IS EXPECTED TO DRAW THE
THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH TO FAVOR MAINLY SNOW FRIDAY FOR WESTERN
BORDER...WITH A PHASE TRANSITION LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
COUNTIES THOUGH A BRIEF SLEET OR SNOW SHOWER CENTRAL ZONES ALSO NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY AND MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY
UNDER 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS OF WET SNOW NORTHWEST BORDER WITH OUTSIDE
RISK OF MAYBE ANOTHER INCH. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXPAND THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THIS GO-AROUND. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF THIS
WEEKENDS PRECIPITATION SYSTEM. A LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WAS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE MOIST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN UP OFF THE CAPROCK
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
DOWNGLIDE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOWEST
LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUICK
TO END SATURDAY EVENING AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOSTLY RAIN FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK
AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED WARMER UNDER
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST
SNOW THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
WEAKER WAA WILL BE SEEN. SNOW TOTALS UP TO FOUR INCHES WOULD BE
LIKELY AND MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND
-2 TO 0C. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH ON SUNDAY DIPPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER INTERRUPTION TO THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  35  29  37 /  20  60  80  50
TULIA         32  40  33  39 /  10  50  80  70
PLAINVIEW     34  40  33  40 /  10  50  90  70
LEVELLAND     33  38  33  41 /  20  60  90  60
LUBBOCK       34  40  34  42 /  10  50  90  70
DENVER CITY   35  39  34  42 /  30  60  90  60
BROWNFIELD    34  40  35  42 /  20  50  90  60
CHILDRESS     34  48  38  44 /   0  20  80  80
SPUR          34  45  36  43 /  10  20  80  80
ASPERMONT     35  48  39  44 /   0  20  80  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291744
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD...
RELAXING A BIT AROUND SUNSET WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD VEER GRADUALLY TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
BY FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA TODAY WILL EDGE EASTWARD
ONSHORE BY FRIDAY...WITH THICKENING PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT KPVW AND KLBB JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
NORTH TO NE WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO LOWER TOWARD 10 KFT THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MAKE AS FAR EAST AS KPVW AND KLBB BY 12Z
FRIDAY...THE BEGINNING ECHOES OF A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHC TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. BETTER CHANCES BEYOND
THE SCOPE OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK TO THE EAST FROM THE CNTL ROCKIES AND
SRN ROCKIES TODAY ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH EYES THEN
FOCUSING ON A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE SRN CALIF/BAJA CALIF
COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FCST AREA...THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING CAUSING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL
TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS NEAR-RECORD HIGHS...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS
HIGHLY MODIFIED AND NOT REALLY COLD AT ALL. RESULT WILL BE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND FAVORING THE WARMER END
OF MOS GUIDANCE.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SEE MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGIN ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SWRN AND EVENTUALLY
WRN ZONES OF THE FCST AREA. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL TAKE A WHILE
WITH VERY DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS INITIALLY IN PLACE...AND WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP AT
THE SFC TO BE CONFINED TO WRN ZONES TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY AND BE PRETTY LIGHT. STILL...MODELS ARE BECOMING PRETTY
INSISTENT IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND
WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT...GENERALLY FAVORING THE MIDDLE GROUND
METMOS NUMBERS. PRECIP PHASE OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE AN ISSUE
NEAR THE STATE LINE NWD INTO THE EXTREME SRN PANHANDLE. MODEL
PROFILES TAKE MODEST MID LEVEL WARM NOSE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT OVER A FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH...SUGGESTING RAIN OR
SNOW TO BE PREFERRED DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
OF ICE. MOS TEMPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN A BIT TOO COLD IN SIMILAR
SCENARIOS RECENTLY...SO WILL WARM THEM A BIT TOWARD THE RAW MODEL
NUMBERS WHICH WILL PUT FCST LOWS RIGHT NEAR 32F FOR THIS AREA OF
CONCERN. WILL THUS RIDE THE FENCE WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DENVER CITY TO DIMMITT LINE AND ALL RAIN EAST OF
THERE AND WEST OF I-27 /NO POP MENTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE/.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP FRI-SAT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE ENTIRE CWA TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP LEVELS FOR THIS
WINTER SEASON /BEGINNING DEC 1/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS AN AGGRESSIVE SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAJA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW POISED ABOUT 500 MILES SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. BY EARLY
FRIDAY...INITIAL TOP-DOWN MOISTENING STILL LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER
HEALTHY RESISTANCE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER A STOUT
RIDGE AXIS...SO A TIGHT W-E POP GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED
FOR THIS PERIOD. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BLOSSOM BY FRI NIGHT AS
HEIGHT FALLS ENSUE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER RIDGE. COUPLED WITH
DEEP ASCENT FROM INCREASING UL DIVERGENCE...SEE NO REASON NOT TO
KEEP BOOSTING POPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA
3/4 INCH.

GREATEST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP PHASES MAINLY IN OUR W-NW ZONES
WHERE INITIAL WET BULB COOLING SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SNOW AT
TIMES. MODEL SOUNDING DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEP WARM NOSE UNFOLDING ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TULIA TO
MORTON LINE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SREF PLUME
ENSEMBLES IS PUSHING CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT MOSTLY SNOW SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. OUTSIDE OF WET BULBING EFFECTS...
THERMAL PROFILES EAST OF THESE ZONES DON/T STAND TO GAIN MUCH IF
ANY GROUND FOR SNOW IN THIS SETUP OF DEEP MOIST SW FLOW VOID OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...SNOW IN/NEAR PARMER COUNTY
SHOULD EASILY ACCUMULATE BY FRI NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BLO FREEZING.
DID BOOST SNOW TOTALS TO 4+ INCHES IN WRN PARMER COUNTY...BUT THE
KEY HERE IS THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE SPARED AS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO GRASS AS MOST PAVED ROADS
REMAIN A BIT ON THE MILD SIDE. STILL...HIGH LIQUID CONTENT SNOW
CAN PRODUCE A SLUSHY LAYER ON ROADS ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP RATES
BECOME ENHANCED...SO LATER FORECASTS MAY PONDER AN SPS OR FULL-
BLOWN WINTER WX HEADLINE. OPTED FOR NOW TO RESTRICT THIS MENTION
TO THE HWO.

OTHERWISE...POPS ON SATURDAY WERE SKIMMED BACK A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES AS THE PWAT AXIS EXITS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIFT WANES. THE BASE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH
MEANWHILE WILL GRAZE THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER ADEQUATE RE-
SATURATION OF THE PRECIP GROWTH ZONE ALOFT IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE SO POPS WERE REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE. SIMILARLY...
POPS ON SUNDAY WERE LOWERED AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT LOOKING IDEAL
IN THIS TRANSITION TO DRIER NW FLOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRIVE A BLUE NORTHER INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUN COMPLETE WITH CHILLY NORTH WINDS. A QUICK REBOUND TO MILD SW
WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MON BEFORE AN UNSETTLED NW FLOW SENDS
ANOTHER DRY COLD FROPA OUR WAY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  32  35  29 /   0  20  60  80
TULIA         53  33  40  33 /   0  10  60  80
PLAINVIEW     53  34  40  34 /   0  10  60  90
LEVELLAND     56  34  38  34 /   0  20  60  90
LUBBOCK       56  34  40  35 /   0  20  50  90
DENVER CITY   56  35  39  34 /   0  30  60  90
BROWNFIELD    57  35  40  36 /   0  20  60  90
CHILDRESS     59  36  48  38 /   0   0  20  80
SPUR          58  36  45  38 /   0  10  20  80
ASPERMONT     60  37  48  40 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 291744
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES SOUTHWARD...
RELAXING A BIT AROUND SUNSET WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OF PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD VEER GRADUALLY TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
BY FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA TODAY WILL EDGE EASTWARD
ONSHORE BY FRIDAY...WITH THICKENING PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT KPVW AND KLBB JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF
FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
NORTH TO NE WINDS TO BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING THRU AFTN AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO LOWER TOWARD 10 KFT THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MAKE AS FAR EAST AS KPVW AND KLBB BY 12Z
FRIDAY...THE BEGINNING ECHOES OF A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...BUT CHC TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. BETTER CHANCES BEYOND
THE SCOPE OF THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK TO THE EAST FROM THE CNTL ROCKIES AND
SRN ROCKIES TODAY ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH EYES THEN
FOCUSING ON A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE SRN CALIF/BAJA CALIF
COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FCST AREA...THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY
EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING CAUSING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL COOL
TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS NEAR-RECORD HIGHS...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS
HIGHLY MODIFIED AND NOT REALLY COLD AT ALL. RESULT WILL BE HIGH
TEMPS TODAY A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND FAVORING THE WARMER END
OF MOS GUIDANCE.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SEE MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT BEGIN ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND INTO THE SWRN AND EVENTUALLY
WRN ZONES OF THE FCST AREA. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL TAKE A WHILE
WITH VERY DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS INITIALLY IN PLACE...AND WITH
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIP AT
THE SFC TO BE CONFINED TO WRN ZONES TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY AND BE PRETTY LIGHT. STILL...MODELS ARE BECOMING PRETTY
INSISTENT IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE AREA BY 12Z AND
WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT...GENERALLY FAVORING THE MIDDLE GROUND
METMOS NUMBERS. PRECIP PHASE OF THIS LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE AN ISSUE
NEAR THE STATE LINE NWD INTO THE EXTREME SRN PANHANDLE. MODEL
PROFILES TAKE MODEST MID LEVEL WARM NOSE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...BUT OVER A FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH...SUGGESTING RAIN OR
SNOW TO BE PREFERRED DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
OF ICE. MOS TEMPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN A BIT TOO COLD IN SIMILAR
SCENARIOS RECENTLY...SO WILL WARM THEM A BIT TOWARD THE RAW MODEL
NUMBERS WHICH WILL PUT FCST LOWS RIGHT NEAR 32F FOR THIS AREA OF
CONCERN. WILL THUS RIDE THE FENCE WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR AREAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A DENVER CITY TO DIMMITT LINE AND ALL RAIN EAST OF
THERE AND WEST OF I-27 /NO POP MENTION EAST OF THE INTERSTATE/.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIP FRI-SAT WHICH
SHOULD PUSH THE ENTIRE CWA TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP LEVELS FOR THIS
WINTER SEASON /BEGINNING DEC 1/. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SHOWS AN AGGRESSIVE SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BAJA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW POISED ABOUT 500 MILES SW OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. BY EARLY
FRIDAY...INITIAL TOP-DOWN MOISTENING STILL LOOKS TO ENCOUNTER
HEALTHY RESISTANCE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER A STOUT
RIDGE AXIS...SO A TIGHT W-E POP GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED
FOR THIS PERIOD. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD BLOSSOM BY FRI NIGHT AS
HEIGHT FALLS ENSUE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER RIDGE. COUPLED WITH
DEEP ASCENT FROM INCREASING UL DIVERGENCE...SEE NO REASON NOT TO
KEEP BOOSTING POPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA
3/4 INCH.

GREATEST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP PHASES MAINLY IN OUR W-NW ZONES
WHERE INITIAL WET BULB COOLING SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SNOW AT
TIMES. MODEL SOUNDING DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEP WARM NOSE UNFOLDING ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TULIA TO
MORTON LINE ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SREF PLUME
ENSEMBLES IS PUSHING CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT MOSTLY SNOW SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. OUTSIDE OF WET BULBING EFFECTS...
THERMAL PROFILES EAST OF THESE ZONES DON/T STAND TO GAIN MUCH IF
ANY GROUND FOR SNOW IN THIS SETUP OF DEEP MOIST SW FLOW VOID OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION. NONETHELESS...SNOW IN/NEAR PARMER COUNTY
SHOULD EASILY ACCUMULATE BY FRI NIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BLO FREEZING.
DID BOOST SNOW TOTALS TO 4+ INCHES IN WRN PARMER COUNTY...BUT THE
KEY HERE IS THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY BE SPARED AS THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO GRASS AS MOST PAVED ROADS
REMAIN A BIT ON THE MILD SIDE. STILL...HIGH LIQUID CONTENT SNOW
CAN PRODUCE A SLUSHY LAYER ON ROADS ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP RATES
BECOME ENHANCED...SO LATER FORECASTS MAY PONDER AN SPS OR FULL-
BLOWN WINTER WX HEADLINE. OPTED FOR NOW TO RESTRICT THIS MENTION
TO THE HWO.

OTHERWISE...POPS ON SATURDAY WERE SKIMMED BACK A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVELY ACROSS OUR WRN COUNTIES AS THE PWAT AXIS EXITS INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LIFT WANES. THE BASE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH
MEANWHILE WILL GRAZE THE REGION SAT NIGHT...HOWEVER ADEQUATE RE-
SATURATION OF THE PRECIP GROWTH ZONE ALOFT IS LOOKING LESS
IMPRESSIVE SO POPS WERE REDUCED TO SLIGHT CHANCE. SIMILARLY...
POPS ON SUNDAY WERE LOWERED AS MOISTURE IS JUST NOT LOOKING IDEAL
IN THIS TRANSITION TO DRIER NW FLOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DRIVE A BLUE NORTHER INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK
SUN COMPLETE WITH CHILLY NORTH WINDS. A QUICK REBOUND TO MILD SW
WINDS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR MON BEFORE AN UNSETTLED NW FLOW SENDS
ANOTHER DRY COLD FROPA OUR WAY BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  32  35  29 /   0  20  60  80
TULIA         53  33  40  33 /   0  10  60  80
PLAINVIEW     53  34  40  34 /   0  10  60  90
LEVELLAND     56  34  38  34 /   0  20  60  90
LUBBOCK       56  34  40  35 /   0  20  50  90
DENVER CITY   56  35  39  34 /   0  30  60  90
BROWNFIELD    57  35  40  36 /   0  20  60  90
CHILDRESS     59  36  48  38 /   0   0  20  80
SPUR          58  36  45  38 /   0  10  20  80
ASPERMONT     60  37  48  40 /   0   0  20  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





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