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000
FXUS64 KLUB 280503
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPVW...BUT MAY MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF KLBB...BUT
COULD THREATEN KCDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND HAS BEEN OMITTED
FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW. INSTEAD...THERE REMAINS A BETTER SHOT OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER AT THE TERMINALS BY 09-12Z. ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER/LIFT BY MID- TO LATE MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE SW INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN
THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST
TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SRN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT CINH
HAS BEEN ELIMINATED...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THIS MAY KEEP T-STORM ACTIVITY
ISOLATED. EVEN SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING T-STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH WIDE
VARIANCE SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ONE OR TWO
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COMPLEXES IF THEY DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES ON INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...WE WOULD EXPECT
DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY
TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...REFLECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE POP MENTION AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WERE LARGELY COSMETIC AS THE
PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRANSITION FROM AN UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME TOWARD INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING S/W
TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A STEADY DECREASE OF POPS FROM W-E.
IGNORING THE RATHER NOISY NAM-WRF AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL
MESOHIGHS LATE THURSDAY...REMAINING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING GOOD CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT INTACT THERE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN COLORADO.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE DAY
WHICH MAY VERY WELL SUPPRESS THE DRYLINE FROM CONVECTING...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING COULD EASILY TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SOME STORMS. BY FAR...A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES COMPLETE
WITH A CANADIAN FRONT. VEERING OF UPPER WINDS TO A NWLY COMPONENT
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STEERING CONVECTION TOWARD OUR CWA AND
DIRECTLY INTO A THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING TO
THE NM STATE LINE OR EVEN FARTHER...POPS WERE BOOSTED AREA WIDE ON
THE CAPROCK. POSITION OF THE THETA-E MAX...PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT. INSERTED LOCALLY +RA IN GRIDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE NOON SAT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH LOWER MIXING RATIOS. DID DRY OUT POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM N-
S THIS DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS QUITE STOUT AND UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP. EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD UNFOLD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM WITH STORMS THREATENING OUR WRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF WINDS ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY E-SE INTO OUR LOCALES DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. THEREAFTER...POPS REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEG BY TUE-WED AS THICKNESSES SOAR
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  55  81 /  40  50  40  20
TULIA         61  78  60  81 /  50  50  50  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  62  81 /  50  50  50  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  61  85 /  40  50  40  10
LUBBOCK       64  80  63  82 /  50  50  50  20
DENVER CITY   64  80  62  86 /  40  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    65  80  62  86 /  40  50  50  10
CHILDRESS     65  81  64  82 /  50  50  60  30
SPUR          64  81  64  82 /  50  50  50  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  65  83 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 280503
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPVW...BUT MAY MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF KLBB...BUT
COULD THREATEN KCDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND HAS BEEN OMITTED
FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW. INSTEAD...THERE REMAINS A BETTER SHOT OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER AT THE TERMINALS BY 09-12Z. ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER/LIFT BY MID- TO LATE MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE SW INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN
THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST
TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SRN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT CINH
HAS BEEN ELIMINATED...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THIS MAY KEEP T-STORM ACTIVITY
ISOLATED. EVEN SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING T-STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH WIDE
VARIANCE SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ONE OR TWO
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COMPLEXES IF THEY DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES ON INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...WE WOULD EXPECT
DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY
TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...REFLECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE POP MENTION AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WERE LARGELY COSMETIC AS THE
PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRANSITION FROM AN UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME TOWARD INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING S/W
TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A STEADY DECREASE OF POPS FROM W-E.
IGNORING THE RATHER NOISY NAM-WRF AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL
MESOHIGHS LATE THURSDAY...REMAINING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING GOOD CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT INTACT THERE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN COLORADO.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE DAY
WHICH MAY VERY WELL SUPPRESS THE DRYLINE FROM CONVECTING...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING COULD EASILY TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SOME STORMS. BY FAR...A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES COMPLETE
WITH A CANADIAN FRONT. VEERING OF UPPER WINDS TO A NWLY COMPONENT
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STEERING CONVECTION TOWARD OUR CWA AND
DIRECTLY INTO A THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING TO
THE NM STATE LINE OR EVEN FARTHER...POPS WERE BOOSTED AREA WIDE ON
THE CAPROCK. POSITION OF THE THETA-E MAX...PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT. INSERTED LOCALLY +RA IN GRIDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE NOON SAT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH LOWER MIXING RATIOS. DID DRY OUT POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM N-
S THIS DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS QUITE STOUT AND UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP. EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD UNFOLD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM WITH STORMS THREATENING OUR WRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF WINDS ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY E-SE INTO OUR LOCALES DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. THEREAFTER...POPS REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEG BY TUE-WED AS THICKNESSES SOAR
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  55  81 /  40  50  40  20
TULIA         61  78  60  81 /  50  50  50  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  62  81 /  50  50  50  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  61  85 /  40  50  40  10
LUBBOCK       64  80  63  82 /  50  50  50  20
DENVER CITY   64  80  62  86 /  40  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    65  80  62  86 /  40  50  50  10
CHILDRESS     65  81  64  82 /  50  50  60  30
SPUR          64  81  64  82 /  50  50  50  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  65  83 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 280503
AFDLUB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPVW...BUT MAY MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF KLBB...BUT
COULD THREATEN KCDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND HAS BEEN OMITTED
FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW. INSTEAD...THERE REMAINS A BETTER SHOT OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER AT THE TERMINALS BY 09-12Z. ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER/LIFT BY MID- TO LATE MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE SW INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN
THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST
TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SRN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT CINH
HAS BEEN ELIMINATED...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THIS MAY KEEP T-STORM ACTIVITY
ISOLATED. EVEN SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING T-STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH WIDE
VARIANCE SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ONE OR TWO
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COMPLEXES IF THEY DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES ON INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...WE WOULD EXPECT
DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY
TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...REFLECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE POP MENTION AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WERE LARGELY COSMETIC AS THE
PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRANSITION FROM AN UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME TOWARD INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING S/W
TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A STEADY DECREASE OF POPS FROM W-E.
IGNORING THE RATHER NOISY NAM-WRF AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL
MESOHIGHS LATE THURSDAY...REMAINING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING GOOD CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT INTACT THERE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN COLORADO.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE DAY
WHICH MAY VERY WELL SUPPRESS THE DRYLINE FROM CONVECTING...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING COULD EASILY TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SOME STORMS. BY FAR...A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES COMPLETE
WITH A CANADIAN FRONT. VEERING OF UPPER WINDS TO A NWLY COMPONENT
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STEERING CONVECTION TOWARD OUR CWA AND
DIRECTLY INTO A THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING TO
THE NM STATE LINE OR EVEN FARTHER...POPS WERE BOOSTED AREA WIDE ON
THE CAPROCK. POSITION OF THE THETA-E MAX...PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT. INSERTED LOCALLY +RA IN GRIDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE NOON SAT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH LOWER MIXING RATIOS. DID DRY OUT POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM N-
S THIS DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS QUITE STOUT AND UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP. EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD UNFOLD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM WITH STORMS THREATENING OUR WRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF WINDS ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY E-SE INTO OUR LOCALES DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. THEREAFTER...POPS REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEG BY TUE-WED AS THICKNESSES SOAR
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  55  81 /  40  50  40  20
TULIA         61  78  60  81 /  50  50  50  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  62  81 /  50  50  50  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  61  85 /  40  50  40  10
LUBBOCK       64  80  63  82 /  50  50  50  20
DENVER CITY   64  80  62  86 /  40  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    65  80  62  86 /  40  50  50  10
CHILDRESS     65  81  64  82 /  50  50  60  30
SPUR          64  81  64  82 /  50  50  50  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  65  83 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 280503
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPVW...BUT MAY MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF KLBB...BUT
COULD THREATEN KCDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND HAS BEEN OMITTED
FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW. INSTEAD...THERE REMAINS A BETTER SHOT OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER AT THE TERMINALS BY 09-12Z. ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER/LIFT BY MID- TO LATE MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE SW INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN
THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST
TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SRN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT CINH
HAS BEEN ELIMINATED...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THIS MAY KEEP T-STORM ACTIVITY
ISOLATED. EVEN SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING T-STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH WIDE
VARIANCE SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ONE OR TWO
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COMPLEXES IF THEY DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES ON INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...WE WOULD EXPECT
DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY
TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...REFLECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE POP MENTION AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WERE LARGELY COSMETIC AS THE
PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRANSITION FROM AN UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME TOWARD INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING S/W
TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A STEADY DECREASE OF POPS FROM W-E.
IGNORING THE RATHER NOISY NAM-WRF AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL
MESOHIGHS LATE THURSDAY...REMAINING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING GOOD CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT INTACT THERE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN COLORADO.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE DAY
WHICH MAY VERY WELL SUPPRESS THE DRYLINE FROM CONVECTING...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING COULD EASILY TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SOME STORMS. BY FAR...A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES COMPLETE
WITH A CANADIAN FRONT. VEERING OF UPPER WINDS TO A NWLY COMPONENT
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STEERING CONVECTION TOWARD OUR CWA AND
DIRECTLY INTO A THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING TO
THE NM STATE LINE OR EVEN FARTHER...POPS WERE BOOSTED AREA WIDE ON
THE CAPROCK. POSITION OF THE THETA-E MAX...PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT. INSERTED LOCALLY +RA IN GRIDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE NOON SAT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH LOWER MIXING RATIOS. DID DRY OUT POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM N-
S THIS DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS QUITE STOUT AND UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP. EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD UNFOLD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM WITH STORMS THREATENING OUR WRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF WINDS ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY E-SE INTO OUR LOCALES DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. THEREAFTER...POPS REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEG BY TUE-WED AS THICKNESSES SOAR
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  55  81 /  40  50  40  20
TULIA         61  78  60  81 /  50  50  50  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  62  81 /  50  50  50  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  61  85 /  40  50  40  10
LUBBOCK       64  80  63  82 /  50  50  50  20
DENVER CITY   64  80  62  86 /  40  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    65  80  62  86 /  40  50  50  10
CHILDRESS     65  81  64  82 /  50  50  60  30
SPUR          64  81  64  82 /  50  50  50  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  65  83 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 280503
AFDLUB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
STORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT KPVW...BUT MAY MOVE OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STAYED NORTH OF KLBB...BUT
COULD THREATEN KCDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AND HAS BEEN OMITTED
FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW. INSTEAD...THERE REMAINS A BETTER SHOT OF
MVFR CIGS OR LOWER AT THE TERMINALS BY 09-12Z. ANY LOWER CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER/LIFT BY MID- TO LATE MORNING. THUNDER CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE SW INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN
THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST
TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SRN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT CINH
HAS BEEN ELIMINATED...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THIS MAY KEEP T-STORM ACTIVITY
ISOLATED. EVEN SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING T-STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH WIDE
VARIANCE SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ONE OR TWO
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COMPLEXES IF THEY DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES ON INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...WE WOULD EXPECT
DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY
TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...REFLECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE POP MENTION AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WERE LARGELY COSMETIC AS THE
PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRANSITION FROM AN UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME TOWARD INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING S/W
TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A STEADY DECREASE OF POPS FROM W-E.
IGNORING THE RATHER NOISY NAM-WRF AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL
MESOHIGHS LATE THURSDAY...REMAINING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING GOOD CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT INTACT THERE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN COLORADO.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE DAY
WHICH MAY VERY WELL SUPPRESS THE DRYLINE FROM CONVECTING...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING COULD EASILY TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SOME STORMS. BY FAR...A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES COMPLETE
WITH A CANADIAN FRONT. VEERING OF UPPER WINDS TO A NWLY COMPONENT
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STEERING CONVECTION TOWARD OUR CWA AND
DIRECTLY INTO A THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING TO
THE NM STATE LINE OR EVEN FARTHER...POPS WERE BOOSTED AREA WIDE ON
THE CAPROCK. POSITION OF THE THETA-E MAX...PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT. INSERTED LOCALLY +RA IN GRIDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE NOON SAT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH LOWER MIXING RATIOS. DID DRY OUT POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM N-
S THIS DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS QUITE STOUT AND UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP. EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD UNFOLD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM WITH STORMS THREATENING OUR WRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF WINDS ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY E-SE INTO OUR LOCALES DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. THEREAFTER...POPS REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEG BY TUE-WED AS THICKNESSES SOAR
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  55  81 /  40  50  40  20
TULIA         61  78  60  81 /  50  50  50  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  62  81 /  50  50  50  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  61  85 /  40  50  40  10
LUBBOCK       64  80  63  82 /  50  50  50  20
DENVER CITY   64  80  62  86 /  40  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    65  80  62  86 /  40  50  50  10
CHILDRESS     65  81  64  82 /  50  50  60  30
SPUR          64  81  64  82 /  50  50  50  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  65  83 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 272357
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AT 2345Z.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF AFFECTING KPVW OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND COULD PERHAPS DRIFT TOWARD KCDS LATER
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND/OR STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD ALSO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE AREA /INCLUDING KLBB TOO/ LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THAT SAID...ASIDE FROM AT KPVW IN THE NEAR-
TERM...CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT STORM IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS AND WILL BE HANDLED BY
AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE SW INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN
THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST
TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SRN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT CINH
HAS BEEN ELIMINATED...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THIS MAY KEEP T-STORM ACTIVITY
ISOLATED. EVEN SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING T-STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH WIDE
VARIANCE SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ONE OR TWO
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COMPLEXES IF THEY DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES ON INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...WE WOULD EXPECT
DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY
TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...REFLECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE POP MENTION AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WERE LARGELY COSMETIC AS THE
PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRANSITION FROM AN UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME TOWARD INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING S/W
TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A STEADY DECREASE OF POPS FROM W-E.
IGNORING THE RATHER NOISY NAM-WRF AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL
MESOHIGHS LATE THURSDAY...REMAINING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING GOOD CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT INTACT THERE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN COLORADO.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE DAY
WHICH MAY VERY WELL SUPPRESS THE DRYLINE FROM CONVECTING...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING COULD EASILY TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SOME STORMS. BY FAR...A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES COMPLETE
WITH A CANADIAN FRONT. VEERING OF UPPER WINDS TO A NWLY COMPONENT
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STEERING CONVECTION TOWARD OUR CWA AND
DIRECTLY INTO A THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING TO
THE NM STATE LINE OR EVEN FARTHER...POPS WERE BOOSTED AREA WIDE ON
THE CAPROCK. POSITION OF THE THETA-E MAX...PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT. INSERTED LOCALLY +RA IN GRIDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE NOON SAT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH LOWER MIXING RATIOS. DID DRY OUT POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM N-
S THIS DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS QUITE STOUT AND UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP. EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD UNFOLD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM WITH STORMS THREATENING OUR WRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF WINDS ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY E-SE INTO OUR LOCALES DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. THEREAFTER...POPS REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEG BY TUE-WED AS THICKNESSES SOAR
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  55  81 /  40  50  40  20
TULIA         61  78  60  81 /  50  50  50  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  62  81 /  50  50  50  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  61  85 /  40  50  40  10
LUBBOCK       64  80  63  82 /  50  50  50  20
DENVER CITY   64  80  62  86 /  40  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    65  80  62  86 /  40  50  50  10
CHILDRESS     65  81  64  82 /  50  50  60  30
SPUR          64  81  64  82 /  50  50  50  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  65  83 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 272357
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
657 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AT 2345Z.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF AFFECTING KPVW OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND COULD PERHAPS DRIFT TOWARD KCDS LATER
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND/OR STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD ALSO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE AREA /INCLUDING KLBB TOO/ LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THAT SAID...ASIDE FROM AT KPVW IN THE NEAR-
TERM...CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT STORM IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS AND WILL BE HANDLED BY
AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE SW INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN
THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST
TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SRN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT CINH
HAS BEEN ELIMINATED...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THIS MAY KEEP T-STORM ACTIVITY
ISOLATED. EVEN SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING T-STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH WIDE
VARIANCE SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ONE OR TWO
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COMPLEXES IF THEY DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES ON INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...WE WOULD EXPECT
DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY
TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...REFLECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE POP MENTION AREA-WIDE.

LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WERE LARGELY COSMETIC AS THE
PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRANSITION FROM AN UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME TOWARD INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING S/W
TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A STEADY DECREASE OF POPS FROM W-E.
IGNORING THE RATHER NOISY NAM-WRF AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL
MESOHIGHS LATE THURSDAY...REMAINING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING GOOD CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT INTACT THERE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN COLORADO.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE DAY
WHICH MAY VERY WELL SUPPRESS THE DRYLINE FROM CONVECTING...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING COULD EASILY TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SOME STORMS. BY FAR...A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES COMPLETE
WITH A CANADIAN FRONT. VEERING OF UPPER WINDS TO A NWLY COMPONENT
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STEERING CONVECTION TOWARD OUR CWA AND
DIRECTLY INTO A THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING TO
THE NM STATE LINE OR EVEN FARTHER...POPS WERE BOOSTED AREA WIDE ON
THE CAPROCK. POSITION OF THE THETA-E MAX...PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT. INSERTED LOCALLY +RA IN GRIDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE NOON SAT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH LOWER MIXING RATIOS. DID DRY OUT POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM N-
S THIS DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS QUITE STOUT AND UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP. EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD UNFOLD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM WITH STORMS THREATENING OUR WRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF WINDS ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY E-SE INTO OUR LOCALES DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. THEREAFTER...POPS REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEG BY TUE-WED AS THICKNESSES SOAR
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  55  81 /  40  50  40  20
TULIA         61  78  60  81 /  50  50  50  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  62  81 /  50  50  50  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  61  85 /  40  50  40  10
LUBBOCK       64  80  63  82 /  50  50  50  20
DENVER CITY   64  80  62  86 /  40  50  40  10
BROWNFIELD    65  80  62  86 /  40  50  50  10
CHILDRESS     65  81  64  82 /  50  50  60  30
SPUR          64  81  64  82 /  50  50  50  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  65  83 /  40  50  60  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 272017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
317 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
2 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH-DRYLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE SW INTO ERN NEW MEXICO. A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. A THETA-E RIDGE RUNS NORTH TO
SOUTH FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO THE CONCHO VALLEY. MLCAPES WITHIN
THIS RIDGE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING OVER WEST
TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SRN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT CINH
HAS BEEN ELIMINATED...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THIS MAY KEEP T-STORM ACTIVITY
ISOLATED. EVEN SO...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. TONIGHT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
LEAD WAVE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING T-STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
FAVORED MODE OF CONVECTION REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH WIDE
VARIANCE SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ONE OR TWO
STORM COMPLEXES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COMPLEXES IF THEY DEVELOP. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS
UNCERTAINTY CARRIES ON INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WHICH WILL
BE DEPEND GREATLY ON THE AMOUNT OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER-TROUGHING STILL PRESENT AND S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING A RICH MOISTURE INFLUX...WE WOULD EXPECT
DIURNAL HEATING TO BRING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND OUTFLOW ARE LIKELY
TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. GUIDANCE TEMPS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...REFLECTING GREATER CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW WE WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE POP MENTION AREA-WIDE.

.LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WERE LARGELY COSMETIC AS THE
PATTERN IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRANSITION FROM AN UNSETTLED CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME TOWARD INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A DEPARTING S/W
TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALONG WITH A STEADY DECREASE OF POPS FROM W-E.
IGNORING THE RATHER NOISY NAM-WRF AND ITS SUBSEQUENT COLD POOL
MESOHIGHS LATE THURSDAY...REMAINING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
PROGGING GOOD CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SO LIKELY POPS WERE LEFT INTACT THERE.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED TROUGH AND ANOTHER WAVE UPSTREAM IN COLORADO.
MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DURING THE DAY
WHICH MAY VERY WELL SUPPRESS THE DRYLINE FROM CONVECTING...BUT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING COULD EASILY TIP THE SCALES
IN FAVOR OF SOME STORMS. BY FAR...A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS SEEMS
LIKELY FRI NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES COMPLETE
WITH A CANADIAN FRONT. VEERING OF UPPER WINDS TO A NWLY COMPONENT
SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR STEERING CONVECTION TOWARD OUR CWA AND
DIRECTLY INTO A THETA-E RIDGE. WITH THE DRYLINE LIKELY BACKING TO
THE NM STATE LINE OR EVEN FARTHER...POPS WERE BOOSTED AREA WIDE ON
THE CAPROCK. POSITION OF THE THETA-E MAX...PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT. INSERTED LOCALLY +RA IN GRIDS FOR THE TIME
BEING.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE CWA BEFORE NOON SAT FOLLOWED BY
MUCH LOWER MIXING RATIOS. DID DRY OUT POPS MORE AGGRESSIVELY FROM N-
S THIS DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS QUITE STOUT AND UNSUPPORTIVE
OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP. EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD UNFOLD IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME OF ERN NM WITH STORMS THREATENING OUR WRN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE
REGION AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF WINDS ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR THESE STORMS TO SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY E-SE INTO OUR LOCALES DOES
NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY. THEREAFTER...POPS REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFIES OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 90 DEG BY TUE-WED AS THICKNESSES SOAR
PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 271738 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE
T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE RETREATED INTO NM
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT /ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB/. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BACKED ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH MID-LVL FLOW /20-30 KTS AT
500 MB/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...MAINLY IN THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE WHERE EHI AND LCL
VALUES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE. PROJECTED SUPERCELL MOTION IS TO
THE E-SE AT A MEAGER 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL BRING A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT AS WELL. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE LITTLE IF
ANY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY NOT QUITE BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP WITHOUT AIDE FROM BOUNDARIES. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ACTIVITY REMAINING ISOLATED...AT LEAST UNTIL STRONGER
ASCENT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 21 UTC OR
SO...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS BEYOND THAT DUE TO
POSSIBLE T-STORM ACTIVITY. T-STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT
KCDS. T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY 21 UTC THROUGH 04 UTC...BUT
MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LOW
CEILINGS...POSSIBLY BELOW MVFR...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS
LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE ONSET AND DURATION OF CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LARGE SCALE FEATURES TODAY DOMINATED BY TENDENCY FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/RIDGING WHICH SHOULD BE A THUNDER NEGATIVE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STEERING EAST
INTO ARIZONA AND SONORA SHOULD INITIATE BACKING UPPER FLOW AND
INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WOULD BE A POSITIVE. BUT NET
RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM FOUR NEARBY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THIS MORNING
MIGHT REVERSE THAT TREND TODAY AT LEAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHICH RESIDES MOST DIRECTLY IN-BETWEEN THE FOUR. MOISTURE LEVELS
ALSO WILL IMPROVE ALL AREAS...INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ESPECIALLY ROLLING PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY ROLLING PLAINS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER BACK WEST ON
THE CAPROCK BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT MORE DIRECTLY BENEATH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT...NET WESTWARD
MOTION OF OUTFLOWS TOWARDS THE IMPROVING DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT
SUPPORT FAVORED ZONE CENTRAL INTO EAST...THOUGH NET INTERPLAY OF
COMPLEX OUTFLOWS NOT SO CLEAR OR SIMPLE. RECENT TENDENCY TO DEVELOP
NOCTURNAL MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND HIGH
INSTABILITY SEEM REASONABLE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ONE SOLUTION VS
ANOTHER JUST NOT THERE TO ANGLE BEST AREA AND PERHAPS MOST RAINFALL
TOO MUCH ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE A
PROFOUND IMPACT ON WHAT OCCURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE COME DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
WILL EXIST...A SURFACE LOW WELL BACK INTO NEW MEXICO MAY KEEP IT
WEST OF THE STATE BORDER. NONETHELESS...SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUS
WILL BE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. ROUGHLY 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING WHAT MATERIALIZES TONIGHT
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AFTERNOON RECOVERY BEGINNING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE IN NWP SOLUTIONS WITH CAPES
RAMPING UP INTO THE 3-4 KJ/KG RANGE. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS INTACT
FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WHILE SHIFTING THESE EAST INTO THE EVENING AS LIFT
APPROACHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO MAKE
BETTER REFINEMENT AS TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SEVERE...ONCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
BECOME CLEARER. IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER FORCING AND ALONG A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND AN
ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SHUT THINGS DOWN FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY BEFORE
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD
BET FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
A PERIOD INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER SURFACE RIDGING FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND...AND BEGINS TO DRY THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION OUT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THIS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY HALT TO STORM
CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. INTERACTION OF EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND RENEWED WESTERN CONUS ENERGY WILL BE THE NEXT
PLAYER IN APPRECIABLE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  79  54  82 /  40  60  30  20
TULIA         60  78  58  81 /  50  60  40  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  60  81 /  50  60  40  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  60  86 /  40  60  40  20
LUBBOCK       63  79  61  83 /  50  60  50  20
DENVER CITY   65  80  61  87 /  40  60  40  10
BROWNFIELD    64  81  60  86 /  40  60  40  20
CHILDRESS     64  80  62  80 /  50  60  50  40
SPUR          62  79  62  81 /  50  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     66  81  64  84 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 271738 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE
T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE RETREATED INTO NM
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT /ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB/. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BACKED ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH MID-LVL FLOW /20-30 KTS AT
500 MB/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...MAINLY IN THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE WHERE EHI AND LCL
VALUES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE. PROJECTED SUPERCELL MOTION IS TO
THE E-SE AT A MEAGER 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL BRING A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT AS WELL. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE LITTLE IF
ANY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY NOT QUITE BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP WITHOUT AIDE FROM BOUNDARIES. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ACTIVITY REMAINING ISOLATED...AT LEAST UNTIL STRONGER
ASCENT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 21 UTC OR
SO...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS BEYOND THAT DUE TO
POSSIBLE T-STORM ACTIVITY. T-STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT
KCDS. T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY 21 UTC THROUGH 04 UTC...BUT
MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LOW
CEILINGS...POSSIBLY BELOW MVFR...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS
LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE ONSET AND DURATION OF CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LARGE SCALE FEATURES TODAY DOMINATED BY TENDENCY FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/RIDGING WHICH SHOULD BE A THUNDER NEGATIVE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STEERING EAST
INTO ARIZONA AND SONORA SHOULD INITIATE BACKING UPPER FLOW AND
INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WOULD BE A POSITIVE. BUT NET
RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM FOUR NEARBY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THIS MORNING
MIGHT REVERSE THAT TREND TODAY AT LEAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHICH RESIDES MOST DIRECTLY IN-BETWEEN THE FOUR. MOISTURE LEVELS
ALSO WILL IMPROVE ALL AREAS...INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ESPECIALLY ROLLING PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY ROLLING PLAINS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER BACK WEST ON
THE CAPROCK BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT MORE DIRECTLY BENEATH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT...NET WESTWARD
MOTION OF OUTFLOWS TOWARDS THE IMPROVING DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT
SUPPORT FAVORED ZONE CENTRAL INTO EAST...THOUGH NET INTERPLAY OF
COMPLEX OUTFLOWS NOT SO CLEAR OR SIMPLE. RECENT TENDENCY TO DEVELOP
NOCTURNAL MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND HIGH
INSTABILITY SEEM REASONABLE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ONE SOLUTION VS
ANOTHER JUST NOT THERE TO ANGLE BEST AREA AND PERHAPS MOST RAINFALL
TOO MUCH ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE A
PROFOUND IMPACT ON WHAT OCCURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE COME DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
WILL EXIST...A SURFACE LOW WELL BACK INTO NEW MEXICO MAY KEEP IT
WEST OF THE STATE BORDER. NONETHELESS...SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUS
WILL BE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. ROUGHLY 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING WHAT MATERIALIZES TONIGHT
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AFTERNOON RECOVERY BEGINNING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE IN NWP SOLUTIONS WITH CAPES
RAMPING UP INTO THE 3-4 KJ/KG RANGE. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS INTACT
FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WHILE SHIFTING THESE EAST INTO THE EVENING AS LIFT
APPROACHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO MAKE
BETTER REFINEMENT AS TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SEVERE...ONCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
BECOME CLEARER. IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER FORCING AND ALONG A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND AN
ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SHUT THINGS DOWN FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY BEFORE
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD
BET FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
A PERIOD INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER SURFACE RIDGING FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND...AND BEGINS TO DRY THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION OUT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THIS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY HALT TO STORM
CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. INTERACTION OF EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND RENEWED WESTERN CONUS ENERGY WILL BE THE NEXT
PLAYER IN APPRECIABLE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  79  54  82 /  40  60  30  20
TULIA         60  78  58  81 /  50  60  40  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  60  81 /  50  60  40  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  60  86 /  40  60  40  20
LUBBOCK       63  79  61  83 /  50  60  50  20
DENVER CITY   65  80  61  87 /  40  60  40  10
BROWNFIELD    64  81  60  86 /  40  60  40  20
CHILDRESS     64  80  62  80 /  50  60  50  40
SPUR          62  79  62  81 /  50  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     66  81  64  84 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 271738 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE
T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE RETREATED INTO NM
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT /ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB/. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BACKED ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH MID-LVL FLOW /20-30 KTS AT
500 MB/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...MAINLY IN THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE WHERE EHI AND LCL
VALUES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE. PROJECTED SUPERCELL MOTION IS TO
THE E-SE AT A MEAGER 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL BRING A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT AS WELL. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE LITTLE IF
ANY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY NOT QUITE BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP WITHOUT AIDE FROM BOUNDARIES. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ACTIVITY REMAINING ISOLATED...AT LEAST UNTIL STRONGER
ASCENT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 21 UTC OR
SO...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS BEYOND THAT DUE TO
POSSIBLE T-STORM ACTIVITY. T-STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT
KCDS. T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY 21 UTC THROUGH 04 UTC...BUT
MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LOW
CEILINGS...POSSIBLY BELOW MVFR...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS
LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE ONSET AND DURATION OF CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LARGE SCALE FEATURES TODAY DOMINATED BY TENDENCY FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/RIDGING WHICH SHOULD BE A THUNDER NEGATIVE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STEERING EAST
INTO ARIZONA AND SONORA SHOULD INITIATE BACKING UPPER FLOW AND
INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WOULD BE A POSITIVE. BUT NET
RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM FOUR NEARBY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THIS MORNING
MIGHT REVERSE THAT TREND TODAY AT LEAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHICH RESIDES MOST DIRECTLY IN-BETWEEN THE FOUR. MOISTURE LEVELS
ALSO WILL IMPROVE ALL AREAS...INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ESPECIALLY ROLLING PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY ROLLING PLAINS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER BACK WEST ON
THE CAPROCK BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT MORE DIRECTLY BENEATH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT...NET WESTWARD
MOTION OF OUTFLOWS TOWARDS THE IMPROVING DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT
SUPPORT FAVORED ZONE CENTRAL INTO EAST...THOUGH NET INTERPLAY OF
COMPLEX OUTFLOWS NOT SO CLEAR OR SIMPLE. RECENT TENDENCY TO DEVELOP
NOCTURNAL MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND HIGH
INSTABILITY SEEM REASONABLE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ONE SOLUTION VS
ANOTHER JUST NOT THERE TO ANGLE BEST AREA AND PERHAPS MOST RAINFALL
TOO MUCH ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE A
PROFOUND IMPACT ON WHAT OCCURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE COME DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
WILL EXIST...A SURFACE LOW WELL BACK INTO NEW MEXICO MAY KEEP IT
WEST OF THE STATE BORDER. NONETHELESS...SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUS
WILL BE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. ROUGHLY 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING WHAT MATERIALIZES TONIGHT
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AFTERNOON RECOVERY BEGINNING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE IN NWP SOLUTIONS WITH CAPES
RAMPING UP INTO THE 3-4 KJ/KG RANGE. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS INTACT
FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WHILE SHIFTING THESE EAST INTO THE EVENING AS LIFT
APPROACHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO MAKE
BETTER REFINEMENT AS TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SEVERE...ONCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
BECOME CLEARER. IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER FORCING AND ALONG A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND AN
ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SHUT THINGS DOWN FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY BEFORE
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD
BET FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
A PERIOD INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER SURFACE RIDGING FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND...AND BEGINS TO DRY THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION OUT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THIS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY HALT TO STORM
CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. INTERACTION OF EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND RENEWED WESTERN CONUS ENERGY WILL BE THE NEXT
PLAYER IN APPRECIABLE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  79  54  82 /  40  60  30  20
TULIA         60  78  58  81 /  50  60  40  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  60  81 /  50  60  40  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  60  86 /  40  60  40  20
LUBBOCK       63  79  61  83 /  50  60  50  20
DENVER CITY   65  80  61  87 /  40  60  40  10
BROWNFIELD    64  81  60  86 /  40  60  40  20
CHILDRESS     64  80  62  80 /  50  60  50  40
SPUR          62  79  62  81 /  50  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     66  81  64  84 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 271738 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE
T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE RETREATED INTO NM
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE TEMPS WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT /ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 850 MB/. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BACKED ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH MID-LVL FLOW /20-30 KTS AT
500 MB/ AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. WE ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...MAINLY IN THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE WHERE EHI AND LCL
VALUES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE. PROJECTED SUPERCELL MOTION IS TO
THE E-SE AT A MEAGER 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL BRING A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT AS WELL. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE LITTLE IF
ANY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND SURFACE HEATING THAT MAY NOT QUITE BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP WITHOUT AIDE FROM BOUNDARIES. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ACTIVITY REMAINING ISOLATED...AT LEAST UNTIL STRONGER
ASCENT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 21 UTC OR
SO...BUT WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS BEYOND THAT DUE TO
POSSIBLE T-STORM ACTIVITY. T-STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST AT
KCDS. T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY 21 UTC THROUGH 04 UTC...BUT
MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. LOW
CEILINGS...POSSIBLY BELOW MVFR...ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS
LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING THE ONSET AND DURATION OF CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LARGE SCALE FEATURES TODAY DOMINATED BY TENDENCY FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/RIDGING WHICH SHOULD BE A THUNDER NEGATIVE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STEERING EAST
INTO ARIZONA AND SONORA SHOULD INITIATE BACKING UPPER FLOW AND
INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WOULD BE A POSITIVE. BUT NET
RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM FOUR NEARBY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THIS MORNING
MIGHT REVERSE THAT TREND TODAY AT LEAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHICH RESIDES MOST DIRECTLY IN-BETWEEN THE FOUR. MOISTURE LEVELS
ALSO WILL IMPROVE ALL AREAS...INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ESPECIALLY ROLLING PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY ROLLING PLAINS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER BACK WEST ON
THE CAPROCK BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT MORE DIRECTLY BENEATH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT...NET WESTWARD
MOTION OF OUTFLOWS TOWARDS THE IMPROVING DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT
SUPPORT FAVORED ZONE CENTRAL INTO EAST...THOUGH NET INTERPLAY OF
COMPLEX OUTFLOWS NOT SO CLEAR OR SIMPLE. RECENT TENDENCY TO DEVELOP
NOCTURNAL MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND HIGH
INSTABILITY SEEM REASONABLE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ONE SOLUTION VS
ANOTHER JUST NOT THERE TO ANGLE BEST AREA AND PERHAPS MOST RAINFALL
TOO MUCH ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE A
PROFOUND IMPACT ON WHAT OCCURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE COME DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
WILL EXIST...A SURFACE LOW WELL BACK INTO NEW MEXICO MAY KEEP IT
WEST OF THE STATE BORDER. NONETHELESS...SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUS
WILL BE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. ROUGHLY 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING WHAT MATERIALIZES TONIGHT
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AFTERNOON RECOVERY BEGINNING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE IN NWP SOLUTIONS WITH CAPES
RAMPING UP INTO THE 3-4 KJ/KG RANGE. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS INTACT
FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WHILE SHIFTING THESE EAST INTO THE EVENING AS LIFT
APPROACHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO MAKE
BETTER REFINEMENT AS TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SEVERE...ONCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
BECOME CLEARER. IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER FORCING AND ALONG A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND AN
ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SHUT THINGS DOWN FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY BEFORE
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD
BET FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
A PERIOD INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER SURFACE RIDGING FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND...AND BEGINS TO DRY THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION OUT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THIS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY HALT TO STORM
CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. INTERACTION OF EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND RENEWED WESTERN CONUS ENERGY WILL BE THE NEXT
PLAYER IN APPRECIABLE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  79  54  82 /  40  60  30  20
TULIA         60  78  58  81 /  50  60  40  20
PLAINVIEW     62  78  60  81 /  50  60  40  20
LEVELLAND     63  79  60  86 /  40  60  40  20
LUBBOCK       63  79  61  83 /  50  60  50  20
DENVER CITY   65  80  61  87 /  40  60  40  10
BROWNFIELD    64  81  60  86 /  40  60  40  20
CHILDRESS     64  80  62  80 /  50  60  50  40
SPUR          62  79  62  81 /  50  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     66  81  64  84 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 270950
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
450 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LARGE SCALE FEATURES TODAY DOMINATED BY TENDENCY FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/RIDGING WHICH SHOULD BE A THUNDER NEGATIVE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STEERING EAST
INTO ARIZONA AND SONORA SHOULD INITIATE BACKING UPPER FLOW AND
INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WOULD BE A POSITIVE. BUT NET
RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM FOUR NEARBY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THIS MORNING
MIGHT REVERSE THAT TREND TODAY AT LEAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHICH RESIDES MOST DIRECTLY IN-BETWEEN THE FOUR. MOISTURE LEVELS
ALSO WILL IMPROVE ALL AREAS...INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ESPECIALLY ROLLING PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY ROLLING PLAINS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER BACK WEST ON
THE CAPROCK BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT MORE DIRECTLY BENEATH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT...NET WESTWARD
MOTION OF OUTFLOWS TOWARDS THE IMPROVING DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT
SUPPORT FAVORED ZONE CENTRAL INTO EAST...THOUGH NET INTERPLAY OF
COMPLEX OUTFLOWS NOT SO CLEAR OR SIMPLE. RECENT TENDENCY TO DEVELOP
NOCTURNAL MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND HIGH
INSTABILITY SEEM REASONABLE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ONE SOLUTION VS
ANOTHER JUST NOT THERE TO ANGLE BEST AREA AND PERHAPS MOST RAINFALL
TOO MUCH ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE A
PROFOUND IMPACT ON WHAT OCCURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE COME DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
WILL EXIST...A SURFACE LOW WELL BACK INTO NEW MEXICO MAY KEEP IT
WEST OF THE STATE BORDER. NONETHELESS...SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUS
WILL BE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. ROUGHLY 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING WHAT MATERIALIZES TONIGHT
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AFTERNOON RECOVERY BEGINNING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE IN NWP SOLUTIONS WITH CAPES
RAMPING UP INTO THE 3-4 KJ/KG RANGE. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS INTACT
FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WHILE SHIFTING THESE EAST INTO THE EVENING AS LIFT
APPROACHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO MAKE
BETTER REFINEMENT AS TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SEVERE...ONCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
BECOME CLEARER. IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER FORCING AND ALONG A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND AN
ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SHUT THINGS DOWN FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY BEFORE
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD
BET FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
A PERIOD INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER SURFACE RIDGING FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND...AND BEGINS TO DRY THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION OUT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THIS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY HALT TO STORM
CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. INTERACTION OF EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND RENEWED WESTERN CONUS ENERGY WILL BE THE NEXT
PLAYER IN APPRECIABLE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  58  79  54 /  10  40  60  30
TULIA         85  60  78  58 /  20  50  60  40
PLAINVIEW     85  62  78  60 /  20  50  60  40
LEVELLAND     87  63  79  60 /  10  40  60  40
LUBBOCK       87  63  79  61 /  20  50  60  50
DENVER CITY   88  65  80  61 /  10  40  60  40
BROWNFIELD    88  64  81  60 /  10  40  60  40
CHILDRESS     87  64  80  62 /  30  50  60  50
SPUR          87  62  79  62 /  30  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     90  66  81  64 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 270950
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
450 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LARGE SCALE FEATURES TODAY DOMINATED BY TENDENCY FOR WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE/RIDGING WHICH SHOULD BE A THUNDER NEGATIVE
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BY TONIGHT THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STEERING EAST
INTO ARIZONA AND SONORA SHOULD INITIATE BACKING UPPER FLOW AND
INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH WOULD BE A POSITIVE. BUT NET
RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM FOUR NEARBY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THIS MORNING
MIGHT REVERSE THAT TREND TODAY AT LEAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WHICH RESIDES MOST DIRECTLY IN-BETWEEN THE FOUR. MOISTURE LEVELS
ALSO WILL IMPROVE ALL AREAS...INCLUDING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ESPECIALLY ROLLING PLAINS. ARRIVAL OF ONE OR MORE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS BY
MIDDAY ROLLING PLAINS. CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT THUNDER BACK WEST ON
THE CAPROCK BUT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT MORE DIRECTLY BENEATH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT...NET WESTWARD
MOTION OF OUTFLOWS TOWARDS THE IMPROVING DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MIGHT
SUPPORT FAVORED ZONE CENTRAL INTO EAST...THOUGH NET INTERPLAY OF
COMPLEX OUTFLOWS NOT SO CLEAR OR SIMPLE. RECENT TENDENCY TO DEVELOP
NOCTURNAL MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH MODEST SHEAR AND HIGH
INSTABILITY SEEM REASONABLE...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ONE SOLUTION VS
ANOTHER JUST NOT THERE TO ANGLE BEST AREA AND PERHAPS MOST RAINFALL
TOO MUCH ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE A
PROFOUND IMPACT ON WHAT OCCURS THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER
LIFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE COME DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
WILL EXIST...A SURFACE LOW WELL BACK INTO NEW MEXICO MAY KEEP IT
WEST OF THE STATE BORDER. NONETHELESS...SURFACE BOUNDARY FOCUS
WILL BE DEFINED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY. ROUGHLY 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS...BUT WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOLLOWING WHAT MATERIALIZES TONIGHT
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AFTERNOON RECOVERY BEGINNING
TO LOOK MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE IN NWP SOLUTIONS WITH CAPES
RAMPING UP INTO THE 3-4 KJ/KG RANGE. HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS INTACT
FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
THURSDAY WHILE SHIFTING THESE EAST INTO THE EVENING AS LIFT
APPROACHES FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO MAKE
BETTER REFINEMENT AS TO THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SEVERE...ONCE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
BECOME CLEARER. IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER FORCING AND ALONG A MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT UP TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL ALONG WITH STRONG/SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND AN
ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY SHUT THINGS DOWN FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY BEFORE
WHAT LOOKS LIKE A BETTER DEFINED DRYLINE WILL BE ABLE TO SPARK
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD
BET FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR FOR
A PERIOD INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COOLER SURFACE RIDGING FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...LEADING TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS
WEEKEND...AND BEGINS TO DRY THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION OUT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE.

THIS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY HALT TO STORM
CHANCES EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. INTERACTION OF EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM AND RENEWED WESTERN CONUS ENERGY WILL BE THE NEXT
PLAYER IN APPRECIABLE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  58  79  54 /  10  40  60  30
TULIA         85  60  78  58 /  20  50  60  40
PLAINVIEW     85  62  78  60 /  20  50  60  40
LEVELLAND     87  63  79  60 /  10  40  60  40
LUBBOCK       87  63  79  61 /  20  50  60  50
DENVER CITY   88  65  80  61 /  10  40  60  40
BROWNFIELD    88  64  81  60 /  10  40  60  40
CHILDRESS     87  64  80  62 /  30  50  60  50
SPUR          87  62  79  62 /  30  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     90  66  81  64 /  30  40  50  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 270405
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL LOOKING AT THE DISTINCT PROBABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH AND NW ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH IT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. MODELS BEGINNING TO AGREE
ON THE BEST PERIOD FOR THAT COMING AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSISTING
INTO MID-MORNING. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL COME THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THAT PLAYS OUT IS FAIRLY
LOW ATTM. WILL LEAVE PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO BETTER DEVELOP MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WITH RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT UNLIKELY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MONRING WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES BACK THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN UP TO KLBB AND KPVW...BUT ALSO WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM NW TEXAS TO AFFECT KCDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM WITH POOR MODEL TRACK RECORD OF LATE. WILL
MAKE NO SIG CHANGES TO INHERITED SET OF TAFS AND REEVALUATE WITH
THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS STILL LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...AND HAD NOT MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SWERLY WINDS WERE SPREADING EAST OF THE DRYLINE POSITION
.DISPLACING CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...A LINE
OF TCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ACROSS STONEWALL
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
THE SE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. MLCAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2K
J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT FROM MULTI-
CELLULAR STORMS.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND NWD OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY WED
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE
TRICKY. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOCALLY SO THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH OKLAHOMA
ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA....SO
WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC W-SW FLOW WILL VEER NWLY THIS WEEKEND
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UA RIDGE PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER WEST
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ROUTINE BOUTS OF PRECIP
REMAIN IN THE OFFING BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN.

WEDNESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH MINOR RIDGING ALOFT IN SW FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN OK. NAM-WRF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS BLOSSOMING THERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND SENDING A LARGE OUTFLOW SW INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z COMPLETE WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SHOW SUCH A BULLISH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION AND
THIS RAISES DOUBTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. OPTED TO SHRINK POPS ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AND RAISE VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE EARLIER THREAT OF STORMS IN WRN OK.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY NULLIFY THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECM AND GFS DO HOWEVER FAVOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE COMPLETE WITH RATHER VOLATILE SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3500
J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A BROAD MENTION OF LIKELY POPS ALL DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD REQUIRE SERIOUS REVISIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUIETER BEHIND THURSDAY/S TROUGH UNTIL A
CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COMPLETE WITH MORE POPS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE TIED TO SHARPER POST-
FRONTAL/ELEVATED FN ASCENT FROM 850-750MB. COOL/DRIER SURFACE
RIDGING THEN INFILTRATES THE REGION BY LATE SAT SERVING TO LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH - THIS TIME ARRIVING IN
WEAK NW FLOW. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
SHOULD SPUR SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OVERALL WE SUSPECT THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
MORE BULLISH AND END UP DISPLACING THIS MOIST ASCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  84  59  77 /  10  10  20  60
TULIA         57  84  61  77 /  10  20  30  60
PLAINVIEW     59  84  64  77 /  10  10  30  60
LEVELLAND     60  86  65  78 /  10  10  20  60
LUBBOCK       61  86  66  79 /  10  10  20  60
DENVER CITY   61  87  65  79 /  10  10  20  60
BROWNFIELD    61  87  67  79 /  10  10  20  60
CHILDRESS     62  86  68  81 /  10  20  40  60
SPUR          62  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     65  88  70  83 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 270405
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL LOOKING AT THE DISTINCT PROBABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH AND NW ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH IT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. MODELS BEGINNING TO AGREE
ON THE BEST PERIOD FOR THAT COMING AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSISTING
INTO MID-MORNING. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL COME THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THAT PLAYS OUT IS FAIRLY
LOW ATTM. WILL LEAVE PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO BETTER DEVELOP MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WITH RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT UNLIKELY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MONRING WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES BACK THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN UP TO KLBB AND KPVW...BUT ALSO WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM NW TEXAS TO AFFECT KCDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM WITH POOR MODEL TRACK RECORD OF LATE. WILL
MAKE NO SIG CHANGES TO INHERITED SET OF TAFS AND REEVALUATE WITH
THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS STILL LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...AND HAD NOT MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SWERLY WINDS WERE SPREADING EAST OF THE DRYLINE POSITION
.DISPLACING CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...A LINE
OF TCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ACROSS STONEWALL
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
THE SE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. MLCAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2K
J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT FROM MULTI-
CELLULAR STORMS.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND NWD OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY WED
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE
TRICKY. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOCALLY SO THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH OKLAHOMA
ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA....SO
WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC W-SW FLOW WILL VEER NWLY THIS WEEKEND
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UA RIDGE PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER WEST
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ROUTINE BOUTS OF PRECIP
REMAIN IN THE OFFING BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN.

WEDNESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH MINOR RIDGING ALOFT IN SW FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN OK. NAM-WRF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS BLOSSOMING THERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND SENDING A LARGE OUTFLOW SW INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z COMPLETE WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SHOW SUCH A BULLISH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION AND
THIS RAISES DOUBTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. OPTED TO SHRINK POPS ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AND RAISE VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE EARLIER THREAT OF STORMS IN WRN OK.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY NULLIFY THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECM AND GFS DO HOWEVER FAVOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE COMPLETE WITH RATHER VOLATILE SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3500
J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A BROAD MENTION OF LIKELY POPS ALL DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD REQUIRE SERIOUS REVISIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUIETER BEHIND THURSDAY/S TROUGH UNTIL A
CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COMPLETE WITH MORE POPS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE TIED TO SHARPER POST-
FRONTAL/ELEVATED FN ASCENT FROM 850-750MB. COOL/DRIER SURFACE
RIDGING THEN INFILTRATES THE REGION BY LATE SAT SERVING TO LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH - THIS TIME ARRIVING IN
WEAK NW FLOW. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
SHOULD SPUR SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OVERALL WE SUSPECT THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
MORE BULLISH AND END UP DISPLACING THIS MOIST ASCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  84  59  77 /  10  10  20  60
TULIA         57  84  61  77 /  10  20  30  60
PLAINVIEW     59  84  64  77 /  10  10  30  60
LEVELLAND     60  86  65  78 /  10  10  20  60
LUBBOCK       61  86  66  79 /  10  10  20  60
DENVER CITY   61  87  65  79 /  10  10  20  60
BROWNFIELD    61  87  67  79 /  10  10  20  60
CHILDRESS     62  86  68  81 /  10  20  40  60
SPUR          62  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     65  88  70  83 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 270405
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL LOOKING AT THE DISTINCT PROBABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH AND NW ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH IT
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. MODELS BEGINNING TO AGREE
ON THE BEST PERIOD FOR THAT COMING AROUND SUNRISE AND PERSISTING
INTO MID-MORNING. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL COME THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN HOW THAT PLAYS OUT IS FAIRLY
LOW ATTM. WILL LEAVE PRECIP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO BETTER DEVELOP MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WITH RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT UNLIKELY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MONRING WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES BACK THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN UP TO KLBB AND KPVW...BUT ALSO WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM NW TEXAS TO AFFECT KCDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM WITH POOR MODEL TRACK RECORD OF LATE. WILL
MAKE NO SIG CHANGES TO INHERITED SET OF TAFS AND REEVALUATE WITH
THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS STILL LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...AND HAD NOT MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SWERLY WINDS WERE SPREADING EAST OF THE DRYLINE POSITION
.DISPLACING CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...A LINE
OF TCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ACROSS STONEWALL
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
THE SE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. MLCAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2K
J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT FROM MULTI-
CELLULAR STORMS.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND NWD OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY WED
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE
TRICKY. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOCALLY SO THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH OKLAHOMA
ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA....SO
WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC W-SW FLOW WILL VEER NWLY THIS WEEKEND
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UA RIDGE PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER WEST
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ROUTINE BOUTS OF PRECIP
REMAIN IN THE OFFING BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN.

WEDNESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH MINOR RIDGING ALOFT IN SW FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN OK. NAM-WRF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS BLOSSOMING THERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND SENDING A LARGE OUTFLOW SW INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z COMPLETE WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SHOW SUCH A BULLISH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION AND
THIS RAISES DOUBTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. OPTED TO SHRINK POPS ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AND RAISE VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE EARLIER THREAT OF STORMS IN WRN OK.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY NULLIFY THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECM AND GFS DO HOWEVER FAVOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE COMPLETE WITH RATHER VOLATILE SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3500
J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A BROAD MENTION OF LIKELY POPS ALL DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD REQUIRE SERIOUS REVISIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUIETER BEHIND THURSDAY/S TROUGH UNTIL A
CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COMPLETE WITH MORE POPS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE TIED TO SHARPER POST-
FRONTAL/ELEVATED FN ASCENT FROM 850-750MB. COOL/DRIER SURFACE
RIDGING THEN INFILTRATES THE REGION BY LATE SAT SERVING TO LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH - THIS TIME ARRIVING IN
WEAK NW FLOW. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
SHOULD SPUR SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OVERALL WE SUSPECT THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
MORE BULLISH AND END UP DISPLACING THIS MOIST ASCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  84  59  77 /  10  10  20  60
TULIA         57  84  61  77 /  10  20  30  60
PLAINVIEW     59  84  64  77 /  10  10  30  60
LEVELLAND     60  86  65  78 /  10  10  20  60
LUBBOCK       61  86  66  79 /  10  10  20  60
DENVER CITY   61  87  65  79 /  10  10  20  60
BROWNFIELD    61  87  67  79 /  10  10  20  60
CHILDRESS     62  86  68  81 /  10  20  40  60
SPUR          62  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     65  88  70  83 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 262323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WITH RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT UNLIKELY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MONRING WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES BACK THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN UP TO KLBB AND KPVW...BUT ALSO WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM NW TEXAS TO AFFECT KCDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM WITH POOR MODEL TRACK RECORD OF LATE. WILL
MAKE NO SIG CHANGES TO INHERITED SET OF TAFS AND REEVALUATE WITH
THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS STILL LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...AND HAD NOT MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SWERLY WINDS WERE SPREADING EAST OF THE DRYLINE POSITION
..DISPLACING CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...A LINE
OF TCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ACROSS STONEWALL
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
THE SE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. MLCAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2K
J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT FROM MULTI-
CELLULAR STORMS.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND NWD OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY WED
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE
TRICKY. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOCALLY SO THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH OKLAHOMA
ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA....SO
WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC W-SW FLOW WILL VEER NWLY THIS WEEKEND
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UA RIDGE PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER WEST
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ROUTINE BOUTS OF PRECIP
REMAIN IN THE OFFING BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN.

WEDNESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH MINOR RIDGING ALOFT IN SW FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN OK. NAM-WRF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS BLOSSOMING THERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND SENDING A LARGE OUTFLOW SW INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z COMPLETE WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SHOW SUCH A BULLISH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION AND
THIS RAISES DOUBTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. OPTED TO SHRINK POPS ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AND RAISE VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE EARLIER THREAT OF STORMS IN WRN OK.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY NULLIFY THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECM AND GFS DO HOWEVER FAVOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE COMPLETE WITH RATHER VOLATILE SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3500
J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A BROAD MENTION OF LIKELY POPS ALL DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD REQUIRE SERIOUS REVISIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUIETER BEHIND THURSDAY/S TROUGH UNTIL A
CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COMPLETE WITH MORE POPS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE TIED TO SHARPER POST-
FRONTAL/ELEVATED FN ASCENT FROM 850-750MB. COOL/DRIER SURFACE
RIDGING THEN INFILTRATES THE REGION BY LATE SAT SERVING TO LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH - THIS TIME ARRIVING IN
WEAK NW FLOW. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
SHOULD SPUR SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OVERALL WE SUSPECT THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
MORE BULLISH AND END UP DISPLACING THIS MOIST ASCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  84  59  77 /  10  10  20  60
TULIA         57  84  61  77 /  10  20  30  60
PLAINVIEW     59  84  64  77 /  10  10  30  60
LEVELLAND     60  86  65  78 /  10  10  20  60
LUBBOCK       61  86  66  79 /  10  10  20  60
DENVER CITY   61  87  65  79 /  10  10  20  60
BROWNFIELD    61  87  67  79 /  10  10  20  60
CHILDRESS     62  86  68  81 /  10  20  40  60
SPUR          62  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     65  88  70  83 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 262323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WITH RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT UNLIKELY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MONRING WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES BACK THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN UP TO KLBB AND KPVW...BUT ALSO WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM NW TEXAS TO AFFECT KCDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM WITH POOR MODEL TRACK RECORD OF LATE. WILL
MAKE NO SIG CHANGES TO INHERITED SET OF TAFS AND REEVALUATE WITH
THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS STILL LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...AND HAD NOT MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SWERLY WINDS WERE SPREADING EAST OF THE DRYLINE POSITION
..DISPLACING CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...A LINE
OF TCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ACROSS STONEWALL
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
THE SE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. MLCAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2K
J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT FROM MULTI-
CELLULAR STORMS.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND NWD OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY WED
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE
TRICKY. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOCALLY SO THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH OKLAHOMA
ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA....SO
WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC W-SW FLOW WILL VEER NWLY THIS WEEKEND
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UA RIDGE PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER WEST
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ROUTINE BOUTS OF PRECIP
REMAIN IN THE OFFING BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN.

WEDNESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH MINOR RIDGING ALOFT IN SW FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN OK. NAM-WRF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS BLOSSOMING THERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND SENDING A LARGE OUTFLOW SW INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z COMPLETE WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SHOW SUCH A BULLISH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION AND
THIS RAISES DOUBTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. OPTED TO SHRINK POPS ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AND RAISE VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE EARLIER THREAT OF STORMS IN WRN OK.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY NULLIFY THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECM AND GFS DO HOWEVER FAVOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE COMPLETE WITH RATHER VOLATILE SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3500
J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A BROAD MENTION OF LIKELY POPS ALL DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD REQUIRE SERIOUS REVISIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUIETER BEHIND THURSDAY/S TROUGH UNTIL A
CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COMPLETE WITH MORE POPS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE TIED TO SHARPER POST-
FRONTAL/ELEVATED FN ASCENT FROM 850-750MB. COOL/DRIER SURFACE
RIDGING THEN INFILTRATES THE REGION BY LATE SAT SERVING TO LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH - THIS TIME ARRIVING IN
WEAK NW FLOW. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
SHOULD SPUR SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OVERALL WE SUSPECT THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
MORE BULLISH AND END UP DISPLACING THIS MOIST ASCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  84  59  77 /  10  10  20  60
TULIA         57  84  61  77 /  10  20  30  60
PLAINVIEW     59  84  64  77 /  10  10  30  60
LEVELLAND     60  86  65  78 /  10  10  20  60
LUBBOCK       61  86  66  79 /  10  10  20  60
DENVER CITY   61  87  65  79 /  10  10  20  60
BROWNFIELD    61  87  67  79 /  10  10  20  60
CHILDRESS     62  86  68  81 /  10  20  40  60
SPUR          62  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     65  88  70  83 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 262323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA WITH RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT UNLIKELY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MONRING WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES BACK THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN UP TO KLBB AND KPVW...BUT ALSO WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE/THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM NW TEXAS TO AFFECT KCDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM WITH POOR MODEL TRACK RECORD OF LATE. WILL
MAKE NO SIG CHANGES TO INHERITED SET OF TAFS AND REEVALUATE WITH
THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS STILL LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...AND HAD NOT MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SWERLY WINDS WERE SPREADING EAST OF THE DRYLINE POSITION
..DISPLACING CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...A LINE
OF TCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ACROSS STONEWALL
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
THE SE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. MLCAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2K
J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT FROM MULTI-
CELLULAR STORMS.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND NWD OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY WED
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE
TRICKY. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOCALLY SO THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH OKLAHOMA
ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA....SO
WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC W-SW FLOW WILL VEER NWLY THIS WEEKEND
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UA RIDGE PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER WEST
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ROUTINE BOUTS OF PRECIP
REMAIN IN THE OFFING BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN.

WEDNESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH MINOR RIDGING ALOFT IN SW FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN OK. NAM-WRF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS BLOSSOMING THERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND SENDING A LARGE OUTFLOW SW INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z COMPLETE WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SHOW SUCH A BULLISH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION AND
THIS RAISES DOUBTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. OPTED TO SHRINK POPS ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AND RAISE VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE EARLIER THREAT OF STORMS IN WRN OK.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY NULLIFY THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECM AND GFS DO HOWEVER FAVOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE COMPLETE WITH RATHER VOLATILE SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3500
J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A BROAD MENTION OF LIKELY POPS ALL DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD REQUIRE SERIOUS REVISIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUIETER BEHIND THURSDAY/S TROUGH UNTIL A
CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COMPLETE WITH MORE POPS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE TIED TO SHARPER POST-
FRONTAL/ELEVATED FN ASCENT FROM 850-750MB. COOL/DRIER SURFACE
RIDGING THEN INFILTRATES THE REGION BY LATE SAT SERVING TO LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH - THIS TIME ARRIVING IN
WEAK NW FLOW. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
SHOULD SPUR SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OVERALL WE SUSPECT THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
MORE BULLISH AND END UP DISPLACING THIS MOIST ASCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  84  59  77 /  10  10  20  60
TULIA         57  84  61  77 /  10  20  30  60
PLAINVIEW     59  84  64  77 /  10  10  30  60
LEVELLAND     60  86  65  78 /  10  10  20  60
LUBBOCK       61  86  66  79 /  10  10  20  60
DENVER CITY   61  87  65  79 /  10  10  20  60
BROWNFIELD    61  87  67  79 /  10  10  20  60
CHILDRESS     62  86  68  81 /  10  20  40  60
SPUR          62  86  67  81 /  10  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     65  88  70  83 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 262045
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS STILL LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...AND HAD NOT MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SWERLY WINDS WERE SPREADING EAST OF THE DRYLINE POSITION
...DISPLACING CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...A LINE
OF TCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ACROSS STONEWALL
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
THE SE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. MLCAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2K
J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT FROM MULTI-
CELLULAR STORMS.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND NWD OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY WED
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE
TRICKY. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOCALLY SO THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH OKLAHOMA
ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA....SO
WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC W-SW FLOW WILL VEER NWLY THIS WEEKEND
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UA RIDGE PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER WEST
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ROUTINE BOUTS OF PRECIP
REMAIN IN THE OFFING BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN.

WEDNESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH MINOR RIDGING ALOFT IN SW FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN OK. NAM-WRF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS BLOSSOMING THERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND SENDING A LARGE OUTFLOW SW INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z COMPLETE WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SHOW SUCH A BULLISH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION AND
THIS RAISES DOUBTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. OPTED TO SHRINK POPS ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AND RAISE VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE EARLIER THREAT OF STORMS IN WRN OK.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY NULLIFY THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECM AND GFS DO HOWEVER FAVOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE COMPLETE WITH RATHER VOLATILE SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3500
J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A BROAD MENTION OF LIKELY POPS ALL DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD REQUIRE SERIOUS REVISIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUIETER BEHIND THURSDAY/S TROUGH UNTIL A
CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COMPLETE WITH MORE POPS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE TIED TO SHARPER POST-
FRONTAL/ELEVATED FN ASCENT FROM 850-750MB. COOL/DRIER SURFACE
RIDGING THEN INFILTRATES THE REGION BY LATE SAT SERVING TO LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH - THIS TIME ARRIVING IN
WEAK NW FLOW. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
SHOULD SPUR SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OVERALL WE SUSPECT THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
MORE BULLISH AND END UP DISPLACING THIS MOIST ASCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 262045
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS STILL LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY TO
NEAR MEMPHIS...AND HAD NOT MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SWERLY WINDS WERE SPREADING EAST OF THE DRYLINE POSITION
...DISPLACING CONVERGENCE FARTHER TO THE EAST. DESPITE THIS...A LINE
OF TCU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE AND ALSO ACROSS STONEWALL
COUNTY. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS
THE SE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. MLCAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2K
J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT FROM MULTI-
CELLULAR STORMS.

THE DRYLINE WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH TO THE WEST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN NM AND THE WRN TX PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP AND EXPAND NWD OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLY WED
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOOKING A LITTLE
TRICKY. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MAY PUSH INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND
POSSIBLY THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT LOCALLY SO THAT WE COULD
SEE SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH OKLAHOMA
ACTIVITY AND THEREFORE DO NOT BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA....SO
WE DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT HIGHS TO BE
IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC W-SW FLOW WILL VEER NWLY THIS WEEKEND
DOWNSTREAM OF A BURGEONING UA RIDGE PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER WEST
TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...ROUTINE BOUTS OF PRECIP
REMAIN IN THE OFFING BEGINNING WED NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUN.

WEDNESDAY EVENING BEGINS WITH MINOR RIDGING ALOFT IN SW FLOW WITH AT
LEAST SOME DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY IN PROGRESS ACROSS WRN OK. NAM-WRF
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS BLOSSOMING THERE EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND SENDING A LARGE OUTFLOW SW INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES SHORTLY
BEFORE 00Z COMPLETE WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT. REMAINING MODELS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SHOW SUCH A BULLISH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION AND
THIS RAISES DOUBTS AS TO THE COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL STORMS ACROSS OUR
CWA. OPTED TO SHRINK POPS ACROSS THE WEST WED NIGHT AND RAISE VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST CLOSEST TO THE EARLIER THREAT OF STORMS IN WRN OK.

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...A BETTER
COVERAGE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH MAY NULLIFY THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECM AND GFS DO HOWEVER FAVOR
AIRMASS RECOVERY IN THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
UPPER WAVE COMPLETE WITH RATHER VOLATILE SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3500
J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT A BROAD MENTION OF LIKELY POPS ALL DAY
THURSDAY WHICH COULD REQUIRE SERIOUS REVISIONS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT QUIETER BEHIND THURSDAY/S TROUGH UNTIL A
CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COMPLETE WITH MORE POPS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...MOST OF WHICH LOOK TO BE TIED TO SHARPER POST-
FRONTAL/ELEVATED FN ASCENT FROM 850-750MB. COOL/DRIER SURFACE
RIDGING THEN INFILTRATES THE REGION BY LATE SAT SERVING TO LOWER
PRECIP CHANCES DESPITE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH - THIS TIME ARRIVING IN
WEAK NW FLOW. APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN
SHOULD SPUR SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OVERALL WE SUSPECT THE COLD FRONT MAY PROVE
MORE BULLISH AND END UP DISPLACING THIS MOIST ASCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
DRIER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
RISING HEIGHTS AND DEEPER SUBSIDENCE.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 261744 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AT 12 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE
ALAN HENRY TO MEMPHIS...AND SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...CORRESPONDING ROUGHLY TO
THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST
THIS AFTERNOON TO ROUGHLY A JAYTON TO PADUCAH LINE. DEEP MIXING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SE ROLLING PLAINS AS
THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED BY SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S PER 12 UTC
KMAF SOUNDING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXPLOIT STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP- LAYER SHEAR TO BRING A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS. OTHERWISE...AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS WEST TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOWERED FLIGHT
CATS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL TAFS VFR UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES BUT
HAVE ADDED SCATTERED LOW STRATUS TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT KCDS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY FROM 21Z-00Z. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BUT ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  86  57  77 /   0  10  40  60
TULIA         57  85  60  77 /  10  10  40  60
PLAINVIEW     59  85  62  77 /   0  10  40  60
LEVELLAND     62  87  62  78 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       63  87  63  79 /  10  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  88  64  79 /  10  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    62  88  63  79 /  10  10  40  60
CHILDRESS     61  88  65  81 /  10  20  50  50
SPUR          62  87  63  81 /  10  10  40  60
ASPERMONT     65  90  66  83 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 261744 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AT 12 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE
ALAN HENRY TO MEMPHIS...AND SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...CORRESPONDING ROUGHLY TO
THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST
THIS AFTERNOON TO ROUGHLY A JAYTON TO PADUCAH LINE. DEEP MIXING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SE ROLLING PLAINS AS
THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED BY SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S PER 12 UTC
KMAF SOUNDING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXPLOIT STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP- LAYER SHEAR TO BRING A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS. OTHERWISE...AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS WEST TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOWERED FLIGHT
CATS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL TAFS VFR UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES BUT
HAVE ADDED SCATTERED LOW STRATUS TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT KCDS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY FROM 21Z-00Z. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BUT ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  86  57  77 /   0  10  40  60
TULIA         57  85  60  77 /  10  10  40  60
PLAINVIEW     59  85  62  77 /   0  10  40  60
LEVELLAND     62  87  62  78 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       63  87  63  79 /  10  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  88  64  79 /  10  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    62  88  63  79 /  10  10  40  60
CHILDRESS     61  88  65  81 /  10  20  50  50
SPUR          62  87  63  81 /  10  10  40  60
ASPERMONT     65  90  66  83 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 261744 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AT 12 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE
ALAN HENRY TO MEMPHIS...AND SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...CORRESPONDING ROUGHLY TO
THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST
THIS AFTERNOON TO ROUGHLY A JAYTON TO PADUCAH LINE. DEEP MIXING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SE ROLLING PLAINS AS
THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED BY SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S PER 12 UTC
KMAF SOUNDING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXPLOIT STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP- LAYER SHEAR TO BRING A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS. OTHERWISE...AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS WEST TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOWERED FLIGHT
CATS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL TAFS VFR UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES BUT
HAVE ADDED SCATTERED LOW STRATUS TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT KCDS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY FROM 21Z-00Z. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BUT ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  86  57  77 /   0  10  40  60
TULIA         57  85  60  77 /  10  10  40  60
PLAINVIEW     59  85  62  77 /   0  10  40  60
LEVELLAND     62  87  62  78 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       63  87  63  79 /  10  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  88  64  79 /  10  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    62  88  63  79 /  10  10  40  60
CHILDRESS     61  88  65  81 /  10  20  50  50
SPUR          62  87  63  81 /  10  10  40  60
ASPERMONT     65  90  66  83 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 261744
AFDLUB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AT 12 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE
ALAN HENRY TO MEMPHIS...AND SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...CORRESPONDING ROUGHLY TO
THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST
THIS AFTERNOON TO ROUGHLY A JAYTON TO PADUCAH LINE. DEEP MIXING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SE ROLLING PLAINS AS
THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED BY SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S PER 12 UTC
KMAF SOUNDING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXPLOIT STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP- LAYER SHEAR TO BRING A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS. OTHERWISE...AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS WEST TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOWERED FLIGHT
CATS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL TAFS VFR UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES BUT
HAVE ADDED SCATTERED LOW STRATUS TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT KCDS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY FROM 21Z-00Z. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BUT ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  86  57  77 /   0  10  40  60
TULIA         57  85  60  77 /  10  10  40  60
PLAINVIEW     59  85  62  77 /   0  10  40  60
LEVELLAND     62  87  62  78 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       63  87  63  79 /  10  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  88  64  79 /  10  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    62  88  63  79 /  10  10  40  60
CHILDRESS     61  88  65  81 /  10  20  50  50
SPUR          62  87  63  81 /  10  10  40  60
ASPERMONT     65  90  66  83 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 261744
AFDLUB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AT 12 PM...THE DRYLINE WAS APPROXIMATELY LOCATED FROM NEAR LAKE
ALAN HENRY TO MEMPHIS...AND SOME TCU DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS...CORRESPONDING ROUGHLY TO
THE DEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST
THIS AFTERNOON TO ROUGHLY A JAYTON TO PADUCAH LINE. DEEP MIXING
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SE ROLLING PLAINS AS
THE CAP CAN BE BREACHED BY SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S PER 12 UTC
KMAF SOUNDING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY EXPLOIT STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP- LAYER SHEAR TO BRING A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS. OTHERWISE...AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS WEST TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF LOWERED FLIGHT
CATS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL TAFS VFR UNTIL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES BUT
HAVE ADDED SCATTERED LOW STRATUS TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT KCDS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY FROM 21Z-00Z. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BUT ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  86  57  77 /   0  10  40  60
TULIA         57  85  60  77 /  10  10  40  60
PLAINVIEW     59  85  62  77 /   0  10  40  60
LEVELLAND     62  87  62  78 /   0  10  50  60
LUBBOCK       63  87  63  79 /  10  10  50  60
DENVER CITY   62  88  64  79 /  10  10  40  60
BROWNFIELD    62  88  63  79 /  10  10  40  60
CHILDRESS     61  88  65  81 /  10  20  50  50
SPUR          62  87  63  81 /  10  10  40  60
ASPERMONT     65  90  66  83 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 261131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT KCDS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY FROM 21Z-00Z. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BUT ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  55  86  57 /   0   0  10  40
TULIA         82  57  85  60 /   0  10  10  40
PLAINVIEW     83  59  85  62 /   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     85  62  87  62 /   0   0  10  50
LUBBOCK       86  63  87  63 /   0  10  10  50
DENVER CITY   85  62  88  64 /   0  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    86  62  88  63 /   0  10  10  40
CHILDRESS     85  61  88  65 /  20  10  20  50
SPUR          87  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     92  65  90  66 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 261131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES WITH THE
CAVEAT THAT KCDS MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE
VICINITY FROM 21Z-00Z. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL BUT ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  55  86  57 /   0   0  10  40
TULIA         82  57  85  60 /   0  10  10  40
PLAINVIEW     83  59  85  62 /   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     85  62  87  62 /   0   0  10  50
LUBBOCK       86  63  87  63 /   0  10  10  50
DENVER CITY   85  62  88  64 /   0  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    86  62  88  63 /   0  10  10  40
CHILDRESS     85  61  88  65 /  20  10  20  50
SPUR          87  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     92  65  90  66 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 260947
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

.LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  55  86  57 /   0   0  10  40
TULIA         82  57  85  60 /   0  10  10  40
PLAINVIEW     83  59  85  62 /   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     85  62  87  62 /   0   0  10  50
LUBBOCK       86  63  87  63 /   0  10  10  50
DENVER CITY   85  62  88  64 /   0  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    86  62  88  63 /   0  10  10  40
CHILDRESS     85  61  88  65 /  20  10  20  50
SPUR          87  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     92  65  90  66 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 260947
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
447 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWFA WITH ONLY
MINOR IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.  STARTING OFF UP
TOP...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO DURANGO /DE MEXICO/ THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  THE ONLY OTHER POSITIVE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA IS
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  TURNING TO
THE VOLUMETRIC ANALYSIS...VERY IMPRESSIVE MUCAPE /UPWARD OF 3-
5KJ/KG/ WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ROW OR TWO.  SHEAR PROFILES
ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH BULK VALUES OF 20-30 KTS.
STILL...WITH THIS MUCH CAPE...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH FOR A STORM TO
BECOME SEVERE.  THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE THERE...WHAT ABOUT
A TRIGGER.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A WEAK BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD
BE IN PLACE IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION...A FAIRLY
RESPECTABLE CAP REQUIRES BREAKING AND BY 21Z OR SO...THE CAP MAY
HAVE ERODED JUST ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING.  CERTAINLY...THE RISK
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS WORTH MENTIONABLE POPS THOUGH THE NEAR
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT OVERLY CONVERGENT.  AS SUCH A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE MENTION IS WARRANTED.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE CAPE...HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS 70 MPH PLUS WINDS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
BY 00Z.

.LONG TERM...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST WEEK
OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

A HEALTHY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT NEUTRAL OR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY LOW. WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES HEATING INTO
THE MID-UPPER 80S...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT SEEMS WARRANTED WITH
EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE. HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WESTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
STEMMING FROM AN EARLIER DAY COMPLEX ACROSS OKLAHOMA...WORKING INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS TAKE PLACE DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH POSSIBLY PROFITING FROM PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGGING THROUGH IDAHO AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SONORA/ARIZONA. STRONG CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR REGIME SHOULD
INITIALLY BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH WEST
TEXAS BRINGING MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
TROUGHING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AROUND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC BY SUNDAY
TAPERING BACK STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING
FROM EARLY INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR
NORMAL...MID 80S...AFTER 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...BUT A TRACK TO NEAR OR OFF THE COAST OF BAJA LOOKS
TO KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT WELL SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE NEXT ROUND OF WESTERN CONUS
ENERGY BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  55  86  57 /   0   0  10  40
TULIA         82  57  85  60 /   0  10  10  40
PLAINVIEW     83  59  85  62 /   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     85  62  87  62 /   0   0  10  50
LUBBOCK       86  63  87  63 /   0  10  10  50
DENVER CITY   85  62  88  64 /   0  10  10  40
BROWNFIELD    86  62  88  63 /   0  10  10  40
CHILDRESS     85  61  88  65 /  20  10  20  50
SPUR          87  62  87  63 /  10  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     92  65  90  66 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 260437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
A LOW CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS WILL EXIST FOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW...KCDS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHANCE WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KLBB AND
KPVW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW
SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
4-CORNERS REGION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SRN
END OF THE PRECIPTIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NRN ROW OF
THIS FCST AREA...CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTO TONIGHTS FCST.

FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN
LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTN CONVECTION JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA FROM SWRN OKLA INTO NW TEXAS. INCREASED
INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER
THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL RUN WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS WHICH
WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY REMAINING DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WEAKLY FORCED DRYLINE CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WIND
FIELDS BACKING IN RESPONSE. THE EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BY LATE
THURSDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY AND PUSHING EAST SLOWLY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A BROADER
TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GUADALUPE PASS WHICH HINTS
MORE TOWARD CONTINUAL THUNDERSTORM ENTRAINMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...IF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED WED INTO THUR AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ALLOWED TO RECOVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL CAPPING BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT
NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXITING TROUGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCATING OVER AREAS THAT WILL HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER NOT ONLY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS...BUT PAST WEEK...AND PAST
MONTH. DESPITE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT AN
ADVERTISED ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  79  55  85 /  20   0   0  10
TULIA         52  81  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     53  82  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     54  84  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  84  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  85  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  86  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  85  62  87 /  10  10  10  20
SPUR          56  87  63  87 /   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     59  90  67  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/





000
FXUS64 KLUB 260437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
A LOW CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS WILL EXIST FOR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW...KCDS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHANCE WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KLBB AND
KPVW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW
SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
4-CORNERS REGION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SRN
END OF THE PRECIPTIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NRN ROW OF
THIS FCST AREA...CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTO TONIGHTS FCST.

FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN
LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTN CONVECTION JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA FROM SWRN OKLA INTO NW TEXAS. INCREASED
INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER
THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL RUN WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS WHICH
WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY REMAINING DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WEAKLY FORCED DRYLINE CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WIND
FIELDS BACKING IN RESPONSE. THE EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BY LATE
THURSDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY AND PUSHING EAST SLOWLY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A BROADER
TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GUADALUPE PASS WHICH HINTS
MORE TOWARD CONTINUAL THUNDERSTORM ENTRAINMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...IF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED WED INTO THUR AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ALLOWED TO RECOVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL CAPPING BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT
NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXITING TROUGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCATING OVER AREAS THAT WILL HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER NOT ONLY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS...BUT PAST WEEK...AND PAST
MONTH. DESPITE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT AN
ADVERTISED ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  79  55  85 /  20   0   0  10
TULIA         52  81  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     53  82  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     54  84  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  84  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  85  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  86  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  85  62  87 /  10  10  10  20
SPUR          56  87  63  87 /   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     59  90  67  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 252233
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
-RA FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
SEE MVFR DECKS /AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES/ DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
THERE AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE...WILL
NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR VFR FOG AT KCDS AS HINTED AT BY A
FEW COMPUTER MODELS. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP AT KLBB AND KPVW GIVEN A WEST/DRY WIND COMPONENT. DECKS
AT KCDS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH SFC WINDS VEERING
FURTHER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW
SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
4-CORNERS REGION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SRN
END OF THE PRECIPTIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NRN ROW OF
THIS FCST AREA...CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTO TONIGHTS FCST.

FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN
LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTN CONVECTION JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA FROM SWRN OKLA INTO NW TEXAS. INCREASED
INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER
THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL RUN WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS WHICH
WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY REMAINING DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WEAKLY FORCED DRYLINE CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WIND
FIELDS BACKING IN RESPONSE. THE EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BY LATE
THURSDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY AND PUSHING EAST SLOWLY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A BROADER
TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GUADALUPE PASS WHICH HINTS
MORE TOWARD CONTINUAL THUNDERSTORM ENTRAINMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...IF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED WED INTO THUR AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ALLOWED TO RECOVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL CAPPING BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT
NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXITING TROUGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCATING OVER AREAS THAT WILL HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER NOT ONLY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS...BUT PAST WEEK...AND PAST
MONTH. DESPITE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT AN
ADVERTISED ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  79  55  85 /  20   0   0  10
TULIA         52  81  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     53  82  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     54  84  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  84  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  85  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  86  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  85  62  87 /  10  10  10  20
SPUR          56  87  63  87 /   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     59  90  67  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 252233
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
-RA FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
SEE MVFR DECKS /AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES/ DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
THERE AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE...WILL
NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR VFR FOG AT KCDS AS HINTED AT BY A
FEW COMPUTER MODELS. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP AT KLBB AND KPVW GIVEN A WEST/DRY WIND COMPONENT. DECKS
AT KCDS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH SFC WINDS VEERING
FURTHER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW
SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
4-CORNERS REGION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SRN
END OF THE PRECIPTIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NRN ROW OF
THIS FCST AREA...CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTO TONIGHTS FCST.

FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN
LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTN CONVECTION JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA FROM SWRN OKLA INTO NW TEXAS. INCREASED
INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER
THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL RUN WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS WHICH
WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY REMAINING DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WEAKLY FORCED DRYLINE CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WIND
FIELDS BACKING IN RESPONSE. THE EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BY LATE
THURSDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY AND PUSHING EAST SLOWLY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A BROADER
TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GUADALUPE PASS WHICH HINTS
MORE TOWARD CONTINUAL THUNDERSTORM ENTRAINMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...IF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED WED INTO THUR AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ALLOWED TO RECOVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL CAPPING BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT
NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXITING TROUGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCATING OVER AREAS THAT WILL HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER NOT ONLY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS...BUT PAST WEEK...AND PAST
MONTH. DESPITE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT AN
ADVERTISED ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  79  55  85 /  20   0   0  10
TULIA         52  81  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     53  82  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     54  84  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  84  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  85  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  86  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  85  62  87 /  10  10  10  20
SPUR          56  87  63  87 /   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     59  90  67  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 252233
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
-RA FINALLY DIMINISHED ACROSS KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT COULD
SEE MVFR DECKS /AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES/ DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
THERE AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. FURTHERMORE...WILL
NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR VFR FOG AT KCDS AS HINTED AT BY A
FEW COMPUTER MODELS. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
DEVELOP AT KLBB AND KPVW GIVEN A WEST/DRY WIND COMPONENT. DECKS
AT KCDS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH SFC WINDS VEERING
FURTHER TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW
SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
4-CORNERS REGION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SRN
END OF THE PRECIPTIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NRN ROW OF
THIS FCST AREA...CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTO TONIGHTS FCST.

FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN
LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTN CONVECTION JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA FROM SWRN OKLA INTO NW TEXAS. INCREASED
INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER
THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL RUN WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS WHICH
WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY REMAINING DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WEAKLY FORCED DRYLINE CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WIND
FIELDS BACKING IN RESPONSE. THE EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BY LATE
THURSDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY AND PUSHING EAST SLOWLY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A BROADER
TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GUADALUPE PASS WHICH HINTS
MORE TOWARD CONTINUAL THUNDERSTORM ENTRAINMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...IF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED WED INTO THUR AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ALLOWED TO RECOVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL CAPPING BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT
NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXITING TROUGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCATING OVER AREAS THAT WILL HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER NOT ONLY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS...BUT PAST WEEK...AND PAST
MONTH. DESPITE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT AN
ADVERTISED ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  79  55  85 /  20   0   0  10
TULIA         52  81  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     53  82  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     54  84  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  84  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  85  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  86  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  85  62  87 /  10  10  10  20
SPUR          56  87  63  87 /   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     59  90  67  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 252100
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW
SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
4-CORNERS REGION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SRN
END OF THE PRECIPTIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NRN ROW OF
THIS FCST AREA...CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTO TONIGHTS FCST.

FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN
LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTN CONVECTION JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA FROM SWRN OKLA INTO NW TEXAS. INCREASED
INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER
THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL RUN WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS WHICH
WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY REMAINING DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WEAKLY FORCED DRYLINE CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WIND
FIELDS BACKING IN RESPONSE. THE EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BY LATE
THURSDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY AND PUSHING EAST SLOWLY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A BROADER
TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GUADALUPE PASS WHICH HINTS
MORE TOWARD CONTINUAL THUNDERSTORM ENTRAINMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...IF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED WED INTO THUR AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ALLOWED TO RECOVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL CAPPING BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT
NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXITING TROUGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCATING OVER AREAS THAT WILL HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER NOT ONLY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS...BUT PAST WEEK...AND PAST
MONTH. DESPITE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT AN
ADVERTISED ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  79  55  85 /  20   0   0  10
TULIA         52  81  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     53  82  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     54  84  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  84  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  85  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  86  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  85  62  87 /  10  10  10  20
SPUR          56  87  63  87 /   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     59  90  67  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/55




000
FXUS64 KLUB 252100
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
RAINFALL FROM TODAYS MCS ALL BUT GONE AS OF 325 PM WITH FOCUS NOW
SHIFTING TO A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
4-CORNERS REGION. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE SRN
END OF THE PRECIPTIATION POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NRN ROW OF
THIS FCST AREA...CERTAINLY ENOUGH OF A POSSIBILITY TO INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION INTO TONIGHTS FCST.

FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE TUESDAY AS MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN
LOW TO MID LEVELS DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WOULD SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR ANY AFTN CONVECTION JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE FCST AREA FROM SWRN OKLA INTO NW TEXAS. INCREASED
INSOLATION AND MODEST DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WARMER
THAN TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL RUN WITH MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS WHICH
WILL BE A TOUCH BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY EVOLVES INTO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY REMAINING DRY FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF WEAKLY FORCED DRYLINE CONVECTION LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
TO OUR WEST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE WIND
FIELDS BACKING IN RESPONSE. THE EXTENT OF MORNING CONVECTION EARLY
THURSDAY WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE
POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BY LATE
THURSDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION IS DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP LATE
THURSDAY AND PUSHING EAST SLOWLY...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A BROADER
TROUGH AND DEEPER SURFACE LOW OVER THE GUADALUPE PASS WHICH HINTS
MORE TOWARD CONTINUAL THUNDERSTORM ENTRAINMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...IF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS LIMITED WED INTO THUR AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ALLOWED TO RECOVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WE COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL CAPPING BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR BUT
NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT.

MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXITING TROUGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT BUT THE RAINFALL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCATING OVER AREAS THAT WILL HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER NOT ONLY THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS...BUT PAST WEEK...AND PAST
MONTH. DESPITE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...
RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT AN
ADVERTISED ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT IN MODEL OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  79  55  85 /  20   0   0  10
TULIA         52  81  58  84 /  10   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     53  82  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     54  84  61  87 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       55  84  62  87 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   53  85  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    54  86  62  88 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  85  62  87 /  10  10  10  20
SPUR          56  87  63  87 /   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     59  90  67  89 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 251742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BACKEND OF MORNING MCS TO BRING RAIN TO KCDS EARLY AFTN...BUT
SYSTEM OVERALL IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE REGION. NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS BACK OVER AZ AND COULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INCLUDING KCDS. CONFIDENCE LOW
ATTM AND WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN KCDS EXPERIENCING SOME LOW CLOUDS POST-06Z AS WINDS GO
FAIRLY LIGHT AND JUST EAST OF SOUTH KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THERE. A LIGHT WEST WIND EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CAPROCK TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF KPVW AND
KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
ONLY THE TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION OF THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLIER TODAY REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS ENDED. SOME GUSTY WINDS EMANATING FROM A MESOHIGH THAT
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND IS LOCATED EAST OF
LUBBOCK NEAR DICKENS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND FCST
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS AND INSERTED SEVERE MENTION EAST OF A LUBBOCK TO
TAHOKA LINE AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ONE STORM NEAR LOMAX REPORTED A
COUPLE OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS EARLIER...SO DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE PROMINENT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED M2/S2 WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD SEE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
KLBB/KPVW SHOULD SEE THESE STORMS ARRIVE BY 13/14Z RESPECTIVELY
WHILE KCDS SHOULD BE AFFECTED COME MID-LATE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED
PREVAILING -TSRA AT THESE TIMES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE SHOT AT ANOTHER LATE DAY SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KCDS...BUT PROBABILITIES MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MAY SEE LOWERING CEILINGS APPROACH KCDS
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER...BUT WILL LET
ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TRANS-PECOS...SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 NEAR PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MORNING CONVECTION
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO DENVER CITY LINE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL LEADING TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION...THUS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WHERE STORMS GENERATE. WIND AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED
BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF UPDRAFTS...BUT 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF
NEAR 150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPINUP IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING STORM CHANCES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS...SO NOT
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE PROSPECTS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX NEAR OR PERHAPS
JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH EARLIER DAY CLEARING AND AS WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A DECAYING FRONT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN STORE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY AS POLAR JET
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO IDAHO BY MID WEEK AS IT
PHASES WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST. THIS WILL YIELD A
REASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL HANG AROUND TO
OUR WEST INTO FRIDAY THEN OVERHEAD...IN A MORPHED STATE...THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE POP
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE
ECM ADVERTISES SOME AFTERNOON POPS BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SOLUTION AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH 00Z/THU. THEREAFTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY AND BOTH THE ECM/GFS DO ADVERTISE POP PERSISTENCE INTO
THE WEEKEND PERHAPS AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

FOCUSING MORE ON THURSDAY...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE
MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEFORE THE OUTLOOK TRENDS TOWARD MORE OF A RAIN THREAT WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. CERTAINLY
WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE THU-SAT WITH SEVERAL INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  49  79  53 /   0  10  10   0
TULIA         79  51  79  54 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  82  57 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     82  53  85  58 /  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       80  55  86  61 /  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  53  85  60 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    84  54  85  59 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  83  60 /  80  10  10  10
SPUR          79  56  86  60 /  60  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  58  90  65 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 251742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BACKEND OF MORNING MCS TO BRING RAIN TO KCDS EARLY AFTN...BUT
SYSTEM OVERALL IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE REGION. NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS BACK OVER AZ AND COULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INCLUDING KCDS. CONFIDENCE LOW
ATTM AND WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN KCDS EXPERIENCING SOME LOW CLOUDS POST-06Z AS WINDS GO
FAIRLY LIGHT AND JUST EAST OF SOUTH KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THERE. A LIGHT WEST WIND EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CAPROCK TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF KPVW AND
KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
ONLY THE TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION OF THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLIER TODAY REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS ENDED. SOME GUSTY WINDS EMANATING FROM A MESOHIGH THAT
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND IS LOCATED EAST OF
LUBBOCK NEAR DICKENS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND FCST
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS AND INSERTED SEVERE MENTION EAST OF A LUBBOCK TO
TAHOKA LINE AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ONE STORM NEAR LOMAX REPORTED A
COUPLE OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS EARLIER...SO DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE PROMINENT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED M2/S2 WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD SEE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
KLBB/KPVW SHOULD SEE THESE STORMS ARRIVE BY 13/14Z RESPECTIVELY
WHILE KCDS SHOULD BE AFFECTED COME MID-LATE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED
PREVAILING -TSRA AT THESE TIMES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE SHOT AT ANOTHER LATE DAY SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KCDS...BUT PROBABILITIES MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MAY SEE LOWERING CEILINGS APPROACH KCDS
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER...BUT WILL LET
ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TRANS-PECOS...SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 NEAR PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MORNING CONVECTION
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO DENVER CITY LINE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL LEADING TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION...THUS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WHERE STORMS GENERATE. WIND AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED
BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF UPDRAFTS...BUT 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF
NEAR 150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPINUP IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING STORM CHANCES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS...SO NOT
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE PROSPECTS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX NEAR OR PERHAPS
JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH EARLIER DAY CLEARING AND AS WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A DECAYING FRONT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN STORE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY AS POLAR JET
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO IDAHO BY MID WEEK AS IT
PHASES WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST. THIS WILL YIELD A
REASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL HANG AROUND TO
OUR WEST INTO FRIDAY THEN OVERHEAD...IN A MORPHED STATE...THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE POP
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE
ECM ADVERTISES SOME AFTERNOON POPS BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SOLUTION AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH 00Z/THU. THEREAFTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY AND BOTH THE ECM/GFS DO ADVERTISE POP PERSISTENCE INTO
THE WEEKEND PERHAPS AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

FOCUSING MORE ON THURSDAY...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE
MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEFORE THE OUTLOOK TRENDS TOWARD MORE OF A RAIN THREAT WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. CERTAINLY
WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE THU-SAT WITH SEVERAL INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  49  79  53 /   0  10  10   0
TULIA         79  51  79  54 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  82  57 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     82  53  85  58 /  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       80  55  86  61 /  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  53  85  60 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    84  54  85  59 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  83  60 /  80  10  10  10
SPUR          79  56  86  60 /  60  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  58  90  65 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 251742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BACKEND OF MORNING MCS TO BRING RAIN TO KCDS EARLY AFTN...BUT
SYSTEM OVERALL IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE REGION. NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS BACK OVER AZ AND COULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INCLUDING KCDS. CONFIDENCE LOW
ATTM AND WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN KCDS EXPERIENCING SOME LOW CLOUDS POST-06Z AS WINDS GO
FAIRLY LIGHT AND JUST EAST OF SOUTH KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THERE. A LIGHT WEST WIND EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CAPROCK TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF KPVW AND
KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
ONLY THE TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION OF THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLIER TODAY REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS ENDED. SOME GUSTY WINDS EMANATING FROM A MESOHIGH THAT
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND IS LOCATED EAST OF
LUBBOCK NEAR DICKENS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND FCST
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS AND INSERTED SEVERE MENTION EAST OF A LUBBOCK TO
TAHOKA LINE AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ONE STORM NEAR LOMAX REPORTED A
COUPLE OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS EARLIER...SO DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE PROMINENT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED M2/S2 WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD SEE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
KLBB/KPVW SHOULD SEE THESE STORMS ARRIVE BY 13/14Z RESPECTIVELY
WHILE KCDS SHOULD BE AFFECTED COME MID-LATE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED
PREVAILING -TSRA AT THESE TIMES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE SHOT AT ANOTHER LATE DAY SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KCDS...BUT PROBABILITIES MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MAY SEE LOWERING CEILINGS APPROACH KCDS
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER...BUT WILL LET
ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TRANS-PECOS...SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 NEAR PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MORNING CONVECTION
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO DENVER CITY LINE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL LEADING TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION...THUS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WHERE STORMS GENERATE. WIND AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED
BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF UPDRAFTS...BUT 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF
NEAR 150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPINUP IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING STORM CHANCES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS...SO NOT
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE PROSPECTS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX NEAR OR PERHAPS
JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH EARLIER DAY CLEARING AND AS WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A DECAYING FRONT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN STORE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY AS POLAR JET
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO IDAHO BY MID WEEK AS IT
PHASES WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST. THIS WILL YIELD A
REASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL HANG AROUND TO
OUR WEST INTO FRIDAY THEN OVERHEAD...IN A MORPHED STATE...THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE POP
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE
ECM ADVERTISES SOME AFTERNOON POPS BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SOLUTION AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH 00Z/THU. THEREAFTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY AND BOTH THE ECM/GFS DO ADVERTISE POP PERSISTENCE INTO
THE WEEKEND PERHAPS AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

FOCUSING MORE ON THURSDAY...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE
MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEFORE THE OUTLOOK TRENDS TOWARD MORE OF A RAIN THREAT WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. CERTAINLY
WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE THU-SAT WITH SEVERAL INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  49  79  53 /   0  10  10   0
TULIA         79  51  79  54 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  82  57 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     82  53  85  58 /  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       80  55  86  61 /  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  53  85  60 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    84  54  85  59 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  83  60 /  80  10  10  10
SPUR          79  56  86  60 /  60  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  58  90  65 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 251742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BACKEND OF MORNING MCS TO BRING RAIN TO KCDS EARLY AFTN...BUT
SYSTEM OVERALL IS SHIFTING OUT OF THE REGION. NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS BACK OVER AZ AND COULD SPREAD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...INCLUDING KCDS. CONFIDENCE LOW
ATTM AND WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN KCDS EXPERIENCING SOME LOW CLOUDS POST-06Z AS WINDS GO
FAIRLY LIGHT AND JUST EAST OF SOUTH KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE THERE. A LIGHT WEST WIND EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CAPROCK TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF KPVW AND
KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
ONLY THE TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION OF THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLIER TODAY REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS ENDED. SOME GUSTY WINDS EMANATING FROM A MESOHIGH THAT
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND IS LOCATED EAST OF
LUBBOCK NEAR DICKENS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND FCST
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS AND INSERTED SEVERE MENTION EAST OF A LUBBOCK TO
TAHOKA LINE AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ONE STORM NEAR LOMAX REPORTED A
COUPLE OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS EARLIER...SO DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE PROMINENT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED M2/S2 WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD SEE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
KLBB/KPVW SHOULD SEE THESE STORMS ARRIVE BY 13/14Z RESPECTIVELY
WHILE KCDS SHOULD BE AFFECTED COME MID-LATE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED
PREVAILING -TSRA AT THESE TIMES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE SHOT AT ANOTHER LATE DAY SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KCDS...BUT PROBABILITIES MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MAY SEE LOWERING CEILINGS APPROACH KCDS
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER...BUT WILL LET
ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TRANS-PECOS...SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 NEAR PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MORNING CONVECTION
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO DENVER CITY LINE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL LEADING TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION...THUS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WHERE STORMS GENERATE. WIND AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED
BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF UPDRAFTS...BUT 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF
NEAR 150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPINUP IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING STORM CHANCES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS...SO NOT
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE PROSPECTS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX NEAR OR PERHAPS
JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH EARLIER DAY CLEARING AND AS WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A DECAYING FRONT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN STORE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY AS POLAR JET
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO IDAHO BY MID WEEK AS IT
PHASES WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST. THIS WILL YIELD A
REASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL HANG AROUND TO
OUR WEST INTO FRIDAY THEN OVERHEAD...IN A MORPHED STATE...THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE POP
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE
ECM ADVERTISES SOME AFTERNOON POPS BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SOLUTION AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH 00Z/THU. THEREAFTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY AND BOTH THE ECM/GFS DO ADVERTISE POP PERSISTENCE INTO
THE WEEKEND PERHAPS AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

FOCUSING MORE ON THURSDAY...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE
MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEFORE THE OUTLOOK TRENDS TOWARD MORE OF A RAIN THREAT WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. CERTAINLY
WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE THU-SAT WITH SEVERAL INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  49  79  53 /   0  10  10   0
TULIA         79  51  79  54 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  82  57 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     82  53  85  58 /  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       80  55  86  61 /  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  53  85  60 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    84  54  85  59 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  83  60 /  80  10  10  10
SPUR          79  56  86  60 /  60  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  58  90  65 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 251639
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY THE TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION OF THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLIER TODAY REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS ENDED. SOME GUSTY WINDS EMANATING FROM A MESOHIGH THAT
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND IS LOCATED EAST OF
LUBBOCK NEAR DICKENS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND FCST
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS AND INSERTED SEVERE MENTION EAST OF A LUBBOCK TO
TAHOKA LINE AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ONE STORM NEAR LOMAX REPORTED A
COUPLE OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS EARLIER...SO DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE PROMINENT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED M2/S2 WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD SEE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
KLBB/KPVW SHOULD SEE THESE STORMS ARRIVE BY 13/14Z RESPECTIVELY
WHILE KCDS SHOULD BE AFFECTED COME MID-LATE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED
PREVAILING -TSRA AT THESE TIMES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE SHOT AT ANOTHER LATE DAY SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KCDS...BUT PROBABILITIES MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MAY SEE LOWERING CEILINGS APPROACH KCDS
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER...BUT WILL LET
ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TRANS-PECOS...SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 NEAR PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MORNING CONVECTION
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO DENVER CITY LINE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL LEADING TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION...THUS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WHERE STORMS GENERATE. WIND AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED
BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF UPDRAFTS...BUT 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF
NEAR 150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPINUP IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING STORM CHANCES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS...SO NOT
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE PROSPECTS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX NEAR OR PERHAPS
JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH EARLIER DAY CLEARING AND AS WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A DECAYING FRONT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN STORE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY AS POLAR JET
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO IDAHO BY MID WEEK AS IT
PHASES WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST. THIS WILL YIELD A
REASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL HANG AROUND TO
OUR WEST INTO FRIDAY THEN OVERHEAD...IN A MORPHED STATE...THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE POP
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE
ECM ADVERTISES SOME AFTERNOON POPS BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SOLUTION AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH 00Z/THU. THEREAFTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY AND BOTH THE ECM/GFS DO ADVERTISE POP PERSISTENCE INTO
THE WEEKEND PERHAPS AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

FOCUSING MORE ON THURSDAY...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE
MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEFORE THE OUTLOOK TRENDS TOWARD MORE OF A RAIN THREAT WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. CERTAINLY
WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE THU-SAT WITH SEVERAL INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  49  79  53 /   0  10  10   0
TULIA         79  51  79  54 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  82  57 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     82  53  85  58 /  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       80  55  86  61 /  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  53  85  60 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    84  54  85  59 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  83  60 /  80  10  10  10
SPUR          79  56  86  60 /  60  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  58  90  65 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 251639
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1139 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY THE TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION OF THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLIER TODAY REMAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS ENDED. SOME GUSTY WINDS EMANATING FROM A MESOHIGH THAT
DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND IS LOCATED EAST OF
LUBBOCK NEAR DICKENS SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AND FCST
UPDATED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS AND INSERTED SEVERE MENTION EAST OF A LUBBOCK TO
TAHOKA LINE AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ONE STORM NEAR LOMAX REPORTED A
COUPLE OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS EARLIER...SO DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE PROMINENT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED M2/S2 WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD SEE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
KLBB/KPVW SHOULD SEE THESE STORMS ARRIVE BY 13/14Z RESPECTIVELY
WHILE KCDS SHOULD BE AFFECTED COME MID-LATE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED
PREVAILING -TSRA AT THESE TIMES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE SHOT AT ANOTHER LATE DAY SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KCDS...BUT PROBABILITIES MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MAY SEE LOWERING CEILINGS APPROACH KCDS
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER...BUT WILL LET
ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TRANS-PECOS...SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 NEAR PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MORNING CONVECTION
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO DENVER CITY LINE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL LEADING TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION...THUS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WHERE STORMS GENERATE. WIND AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED
BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF UPDRAFTS...BUT 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF
NEAR 150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPINUP IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING STORM CHANCES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS...SO NOT
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE PROSPECTS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX NEAR OR PERHAPS
JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH EARLIER DAY CLEARING AND AS WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A DECAYING FRONT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN STORE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY AS POLAR JET
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO IDAHO BY MID WEEK AS IT
PHASES WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST. THIS WILL YIELD A
REASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL HANG AROUND TO
OUR WEST INTO FRIDAY THEN OVERHEAD...IN A MORPHED STATE...THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE POP
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE
ECM ADVERTISES SOME AFTERNOON POPS BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SOLUTION AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH 00Z/THU. THEREAFTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY AND BOTH THE ECM/GFS DO ADVERTISE POP PERSISTENCE INTO
THE WEEKEND PERHAPS AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

FOCUSING MORE ON THURSDAY...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE
MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEFORE THE OUTLOOK TRENDS TOWARD MORE OF A RAIN THREAT WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. CERTAINLY
WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE THU-SAT WITH SEVERAL INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  49  79  53 /   0  10  10   0
TULIA         79  51  79  54 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  82  57 /  10  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     82  53  85  58 /  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       80  55  86  61 /  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  53  85  60 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    84  54  85  59 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  83  60 /  80  10  10  10
SPUR          79  56  86  60 /  60  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  58  90  65 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 251207
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
707 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE RAISED POPS AND INSERTED SEVERE MENTION EAST OF A LUBBOCK TO
TAHOKA LINE AS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ONE STORM NEAR LOMAX REPORTED A
COUPLE OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS EARLIER...SO DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE PROMINENT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. 0-1 KM
HELICITY OF UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED M2/S2 WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. SHOULD SEE THIS
ACTIVITY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LIKELY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS.
KLBB/KPVW SHOULD SEE THESE STORMS ARRIVE BY 13/14Z RESPECTIVELY
WHILE KCDS SHOULD BE AFFECTED COME MID-LATE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED
PREVAILING -TSRA AT THESE TIMES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE SHOT AT ANOTHER LATE DAY SHOWER OR
STORM NEAR KCDS...BUT PROBABILITIES MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. MAY SEE LOWERING CEILINGS APPROACH KCDS
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER...BUT WILL LET
ONCOMING SHIFTS ASSESS POTENTIAL CLOSER TO THAT TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TRANS-PECOS...SUBSEQUENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
INTERSTATE 20 NEAR PECOS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING...PRODUCING MORNING CONVECTION
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A SILVERTON TO DENVER CITY LINE. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE COOL LEADING TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
ABOVE A NOCTURNAL INVERSION...THUS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WHERE STORMS GENERATE. WIND AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED
BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF UPDRAFTS...BUT 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF
NEAR 150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK SPINUP IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

UPPER SUPPORT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING STORM CHANCES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE IN WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BY THE TIME PEAK HEATING OCCURS...SO NOT
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON THE PROSPECTS FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX NEAR OR PERHAPS
JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 27/US HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 70S/MID 80S WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT WITH EARLIER DAY CLEARING AND AS WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN...WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

A DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A DECAYING FRONT MAY SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN STORE...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN
THE NORTHWEST TO MID-UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY AS POLAR JET
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE 49TH PARALLEL. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO IDAHO BY MID WEEK AS IT
PHASES WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE SOCAL COAST. THIS WILL YIELD A
REASONABLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL HANG AROUND TO
OUR WEST INTO FRIDAY THEN OVERHEAD...IN A MORPHED STATE...THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE POP
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE
ECM ADVERTISES SOME AFTERNOON POPS BUT THE SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT
OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SOLUTION AND AS SUCH WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH 00Z/THU. THEREAFTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING THOUGH THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD WAIT UNTIL
THURSDAY AND BOTH THE ECM/GFS DO ADVERTISE POP PERSISTENCE INTO
THE WEEKEND PERHAPS AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MAKE
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

FOCUSING MORE ON THURSDAY...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE
MAXIMIZED ON THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BEFORE THE OUTLOOK TRENDS TOWARD MORE OF A RAIN THREAT WITH PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. CERTAINLY
WITH THE SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE THU-SAT WITH SEVERAL INCH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  49  79  53 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         79  51  79  54 /  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  82  57 /  30  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     82  53  85  58 /  50   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       80  55  86  61 /  70   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   83  53  85  60 /  60   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    84  54  85  59 /  70   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  83  60 /  40  10  10  10
SPUR          79  56  86  60 /  80  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  58  90  65 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




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