000
FXUS64 KLUB 182019
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT THANKS TO STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND
APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OFF THE CAPROCK. DEWPOINTS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK THOUGH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WERE HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES. THIS EXTREME HEAT AND DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000+ J/KG OF SBCAPE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO LAKE ALAN HENRY LINE. SFC
CONVERGENCE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG HEATING AND RESULTING WEAKENING CAP...IT STILL APPEARS
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EAST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THOUGH MAY NOT STAY IN THE CWA FOR LONG. STILL...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE SEVERE MENTION FOR THE EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
COULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FAR EAST OR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER
TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS INCREASES. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIM
THUNDER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEYOND 06Z.
BEYOND THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES...HOT AND VERY DRY AIR AS SPREAD ACROSS THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD
FURTHER ELEVATING THE FIRE DANGER. THE LEAD WAVE WITHIN THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND THIS PULL
THE DRYLINE EVER FURTHER EAST...OUT OF THE FA...WITH WARM TO HOT
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
.LONG TERM...
PLAN FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL THINGS DOWN A BIT FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS SUCH...THE CONTINUED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.
.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE DRYLINE ON
THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
INCREASE. STILL...DO EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE LEFT
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARD
THIS EVENING...THOUGH THEY MAY COME UP A BIT AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...AND RH RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR ON THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE
AREA EXPERIENCING HOT...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE
PUSHES FURTHER EAST THAN TODAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WINDS WILL BE ON
THE FENCE REGARDING MEETING THE RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT RH VALUES
WILL BE A SLAM DUNK...DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OR
ALL OF THE FA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
/AND MOSTLY LIKELY LONGER DURATION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE/
BUT CURRENT RUN OF MODELS TEND TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES. DID NOT GET CUTE ATTM AND INSTEAD DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF/WHERE A RFD AND RFW WILL BE MOST
APPROPRIATE.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 88 54 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 56 92 56 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 58 92 58 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 60 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 94 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 63 94 60 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 62 93 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
SPUR 64 97 64 95 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 70 102 65 98 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/04
000
FXUS64 KLUB 181744
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT THE TERMINALS THIS TAF
CYCLE...WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL HAVE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT PROSPECTS OF A DIRECT IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF
HEAT BURSTS...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WAS NOW
EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH THE NEXT UA TROUGH OF CONSEQUENCE
APPROACHING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIFT WITH THE WESTERN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH VEERING FLOW WAS ALSO
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES WERE ALREADY BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS...THE FIRE
DANGER WILL BE HIGH. IT STILL APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING/MIXING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR MODES LIKELY.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND RATHER WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE A LOW TORNADO CHANCE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND BACK AND LCLS GRADUALLY LOWER. BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA IS IF AND FOR HOW LONG CONVECTION CAN STAY IN OUR
AREA. OF THE GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS STORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOW THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST
OF THE FA...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER QUITE
NARROW. THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
PEAKS...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE COOLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 87 54 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 57 92 56 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 57 94 58 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 59 94 57 90 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 96 60 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 60 92 59 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 60 95 60 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 63 95 62 92 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
SPUR 59 98 64 94 60 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 69 99 65 97 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99/99
000
FXUS64 KLUB 181631 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1131 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE EXCITEMENT IN TERMS OF
HEAT BURSTS...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WAS NOW
EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST...WITH THE NEXT UA TROUGH OF CONSEQUENCE
APPROACHING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. LIFT WITH THE WESTERN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY PEAK HEATING WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER FORCING PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...THOUGH VEERING FLOW WAS ALSO
BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. IN
FACT...HUMIDITIES WERE ALREADY BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES...WHERE COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS...THE FIRE
DANGER WILL BE HIGH. IT STILL APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN
SOMEWHERE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING/MIXING...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING UP
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS...COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE
CAP...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z. STRONG INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLULAR MODES LIKELY.
RELATIVELY HIGH LCLS AND RATHER WEAK 0-1 KM SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE WITH
THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STRONG INSTABILITY COULD
COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT AND PROVIDE A LOW TORNADO CHANCE. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE LOWER WIND FIELDS
STRENGTHEN AND BACK AND LCLS GRADUALLY LOWER. BIGGEST QUESTION
FOR OUR CWA IS IF AND FOR HOW LONG CONVECTION CAN STAY IN OUR
AREA. OF THE GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS STORMS IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST SHOW THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST
OF THE FA...WHICH WOULD KEEP OUR WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER QUITE
NARROW. THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
PEAKS...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH
THE COOLING LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED. WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
AND THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAIN VALID
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONGOING FORECAST HAD A GOOD
HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FOG HAS
REMAINED NORTHEAST OF KCDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM WITHIN 5 NM OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE THE 12 KNOT THRESHOLD TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99
000
FXUS64 KLUB 181148
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FOG HAS
REMAINED NORTHEAST OF KCDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. EXPECT SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
STORM WITHIN 5 NM OF THE TERMINAL IS NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ABOVE THE 12 KNOT THRESHOLD TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31
000
FXUS64 KLUB 181017
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
517 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...
TWO BANDS OF VERY LIGHT VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTING WITH THE DRYLINE.
THIS SHOULD WRAP UP BY SUNRISE BEFORE THE MERCURY STARTS TO CLIMB
AGAIN. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 100S INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS IS FORECAST TO HIT 101
DEGREES TODAY WHICH WOULD BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 99 FOR THE
DATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS FALL. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX QUICKLY EAST
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY MIXING EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD KEEP THE DRYLINE WITHIN REACH SO
THAT IT RETREATS BACK ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SUPPORT WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AND USHER IN RICHER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE
LIMITED...BELIEVE WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM ROOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED AS SURFACE COOLING COMMENCES POST-SUNSET...LEADING TO MORE
OF A HAIL THREAT AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PUSH EAST AND PULL
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WHICH SOME
EXCITEMENT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT LATER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE NEG TILTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN USA. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO MATURATION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS PARENT LOW REACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER DEEP LOW COMES
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SERVING TO BLOCK EWRD PROGRESSION OF NORTHWESTERN LOW.
ON SUNDAY MORNING...DRYLINE SHOULD START OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES THUS LEAVING THE AREA HOT AND DRY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS RAMP UP TO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE. NWP IS STRONGER WITH THE LATE SUNDAY COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND RESULTS OF THIS MORNINGS TROUGH
WHICH GENERATED SOME HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THIS NEW FOUND
STRENGTH APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE NAM IS MOST ASSERTIVE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURE. WHICH BY IN LARGE MAY MAKE IT
MOST...BUT PERHAPS NOT ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CWFA. SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
KEEPING THINGS QUITE WARM AND DRY. INTO THE EVENING HOURS...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT MAKES THROUGH WITH THE GFS DEPICTING
POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THE MODEL APPEARS TOO MOIST
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FCST THINKING THAT THIS WILL YIELD YET
ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. FCST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
LOWER ON TUESDAY/S HIGH AND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM...THIS TOO SEEMS REASONABLE AND ADJUST TEMPS COOLER TUE/WED
AS A RESULT. INTO LATE WEEK...MORE EXCITING PROSPECTS FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOOKING TO COME TOGETHER AS PERSISTENT SWRLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THEN
ASSISTED BY A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY. WITH PWAT
VALUES INCREASING UP TO WELL OVER AN INCH THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
YIELD THE BEST PROMISE OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN SOME TIME...AND
WE`LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET!
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DAY 1
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 MPH OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THUS WARRANTING THE
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. WILL ISSUE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR AREAS JUST EAST OF THOSE IN THE WARNING.
DAY 2-3
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA COVERED BY THE WARNING
THIS MORNING AS DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. TO AVOID PRODUCT CONFUSION...WILL HOLD OFF ON SECOND RED
FLAG PRODUCT FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WHILE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY EASE ON MONDAY TO SOME EXTENT...ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 99 57 92 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 97 57 94 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 98 59 94 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 99 59 96 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 96 60 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 60 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 101 63 95 62 92 / 20 20 0 0 0
SPUR 103 59 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 102 69 99 65 97 / 20 20 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31/26
000
FXUS64 KLUB 180459
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY PASSING OVERHEAD. RMCQUEEN
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE DECK EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CREATE BREEZY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT
KLBB. FOG AND LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO IN DOUBT AT KCDS BUT A
SLIGHT CHANCE AT LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS STILL EXIST. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORMING JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AT KLBB. THE LOW LEVEL
JET MAY ALSO KEEP LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS FROM AFFECTING THE KCDS
TERMINAL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT IS ON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BACKED FLOW...IMPROVED MOISTURE AND THE
LATE CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
THIS POINT. AS OF THIS WRITING...RADAR WAS SHOWING THE DRYLINE
NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSITIONED FROM NEAR WAYSIDE TO MCADOO TO
DICKENS...THEN BENDING MORE EASTWARD. UP TO THIS POINT ONLY A VERY
LIMITED CUMULUS FIELD WAS SEEN LOCALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE /IN FLOYD
COUNTY/...WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR
KBKD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KBBD. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LATTER AREA FOR ROBUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM
LOCALLY. OBVIOUSLY...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN GET GOING
HERE...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH PROSPECTS FOR CI ARE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO INTERACT
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTER
BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM FAR NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE CAPROCK LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL NWP MODELS DO INDICATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT WITH THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE DRY IN THE DEEP
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM ANY
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DRAW CLOSER ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT
AND PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
MEAN INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO
SHARPEN SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY BE A BIT DELAYED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...BUT ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE WITH BREEZY LATE
NIGHT WINDS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...WHILE LOWS OUT EAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE TOASTY...RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES OFF THE CAPROCK.
LONG TERM...
EARLY TO MIDWEEK UPPER PATTERN TO SEE A TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND
CNTL PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE MS VALLEY WITH FLAT TO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THAT PATTERN
THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING MONDAY.
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME TUESDAY AS THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EWD WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. AFTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO IN THE
END THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWING IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THE FCST AREA TO BE JUST ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. FURTHERMORE THE NEAR-MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER WWD AND
POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO STAY FARTHER WEST EACH DAY...POSSIBLY
AS FAR BACK AS THE NM STATE LINE. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH STILL
RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL AS A WHOLE PATTERN
SUGGESTS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BACK TO THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER...
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S PUSHING RH VALUES
DOWN TOWARD 5 PERCENT. ONLY QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESIDE AROUND THE LOW END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW
AFTN/EVNG AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE A FINAL CALL ON WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 93 55 89 53 / 20 0 0 0 0
TULIA 61 95 56 91 52 / 20 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 61 96 56 93 53 / 20 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 62 97 58 93 56 / 20 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 65 98 58 95 57 / 20 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 95 59 93 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 98 59 95 59 / 20 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 100 61 98 61 / 10 20 10 0 10
SPUR 66 102 58 99 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 101 69 101 64 / 10 20 20 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
05/99
000
FXUS64 KLUB 180006
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY
MORNING WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FORMING JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED AT KLBB. THE LOW LEVEL
JET MAY ALSO KEEP LOWERED VISBYS AND CIGS FROM AFFECTING THE KCDS
TERMINAL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT IS ON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BACKED FLOW...IMPROVED MOISTURE AND THE
LATE CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
THIS POINT. AS OF THIS WRITING...RADAR WAS SHOWING THE DRYLINE
NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSITIONED FROM NEAR WAYSIDE TO MCADOO TO
DICKENS...THEN BENDING MORE EASTWARD. UP TO THIS POINT ONLY A VERY
LIMITED CUMULUS FIELD WAS SEEN LOCALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE /IN FLOYD
COUNTY/...WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR
KBKD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KBBD. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LATTER AREA FOR ROBUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM
LOCALLY. OBVIOUSLY...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN GET GOING
HERE...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH PROSPECTS FOR CI ARE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO INTERACT
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTER
BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM FAR NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE CAPROCK LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL NWP MODELS DO INDICATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT WITH THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE DRY IN THE DEEP
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM ANY
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DRAW CLOSER ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT
AND PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
MEAN INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO
SHARPEN SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY BE A BIT DELAYED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...BUT ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE WITH BREEZY LATE
NIGHT WINDS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...WHILE LOWS OUT EAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE TOASTY...RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES OFF THE CAPROCK.
LONG TERM...
EARLY TO MIDWEEK UPPER PATTERN TO SEE A TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND
CNTL PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE MS VALLEY WITH FLAT TO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THAT PATTERN
THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING MONDAY.
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME TUESDAY AS THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EWD WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. AFTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO IN THE
END THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWING IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THE FCST AREA TO BE JUST ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. FURTHERMORE THE NEAR-MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER WWD AND
POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO STAY FARTHER WEST EACH DAY...POSSIBLY
AS FAR BACK AS THE NM STATE LINE. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH STILL
RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL AS A WHOLE PATTERN
SUGGESTS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BACK TO THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER...
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S PUSHING RH VALUES
DOWN TOWARD 5 PERCENT. ONLY QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESIDE AROUND THE LOW END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW
AFTN/EVNG AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE A FINAL CALL ON WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 93 55 89 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 61 95 56 91 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 61 96 56 93 53 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 62 97 58 93 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 65 98 58 95 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 95 59 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 98 59 95 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 100 61 98 61 / 10 20 10 0 10
SPUR 66 102 58 99 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 101 69 101 64 / 10 20 20 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KLUB 172028
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...
THE HEAT IS ON...WITH 1930Z TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH EVEN A FEW TRIPLE DIGITS NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE BACKED FLOW...IMPROVED MOISTURE AND THE
LATE CLEARING OF THE STRATUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO
THIS POINT. AS OF THIS WRITING...RADAR WAS SHOWING THE DRYLINE
NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSITIONED FROM NEAR WAYSIDE TO MCADOO TO
DICKENS...THEN BENDING MORE EASTWARD. UP TO THIS POINT ONLY A VERY
LIMITED CUMULUS FIELD WAS SEEN LOCALLY ALONG THE DRYLINE /IN FLOYD
COUNTY/...WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR
KBKD THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KBBD. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE LATTER AREA FOR ROBUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM
LOCALLY. OBVIOUSLY...IF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION CAN GET GOING
HERE...STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH PROSPECTS FOR CI ARE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD TONIGHT BUT WILL ALSO INTERACT
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ANOTHER SHORTER
BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM FAR NORTHERN MEXICO
AND ACROSS THE CAPROCK LATE TONIGHT. SEVERAL NWP MODELS DO INDICATE
LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS LIFT WITH THIS
WAVE MOVES ACROSS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE DRY IN THE DEEP
SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM ANY
ELEVATED SHOWERS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DRAW CLOSER ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT
AND PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL
MEAN INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH THE DRYLINE PROGGED TO
SHARPEN SOMEWHERE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT MAY BE A BIT DELAYED...AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...BUT ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FA WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESIDE WITH BREEZY LATE
NIGHT WINDS. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES...LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...WHILE LOWS OUT EAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE TOASTY...RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
100 DEGREES OFF THE CAPROCK.
&&
.LONG TERM...
EARLY TO MIDWEEK UPPER PATTERN TO SEE A TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND
CNTL PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO THE MS VALLEY WITH FLAT TO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY THAT PATTERN
THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST OF THE FCST
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING MONDAY.
STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COME TUESDAY AS THE LAST BIT OF
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHIFTS EWD WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. AFTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF WITH TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS AND A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS LATTER FEATURE
APPEARS TO BE FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO IN THE
END THE UPPER RIDGE MAY WIN OUT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...STILL SOME PRECIP SIGNAL SHOWING IN THE 12Z RUNS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THE FCST AREA TO BE JUST ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. FURTHERMORE THE NEAR-MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DRAWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER WWD AND
POTENTIAL FOR THE DRYLINE TO STAY FARTHER WEST EACH DAY...POSSIBLY
AS FAR BACK AS THE NM STATE LINE. AS A RESULT...ALTHOUGH STILL
RATHER UNCERTAIN REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL AS A WHOLE PATTERN
SUGGESTS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BACK TO THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S PUSHING RH VALUES
DOWN TOWARD 5 PERCENT. ONLY QUESTION MARK WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESIDE AROUND THE LOW END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW
AFTN/EVNG AND LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE A FINAL CALL ON WHETHER TO
UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 93 55 89 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 61 95 56 91 52 / 10 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 61 96 56 93 53 / 10 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 62 97 58 93 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 65 98 58 95 57 / 10 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 95 59 93 58 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 98 59 95 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 100 61 98 61 / 10 20 10 0 10
SPUR 66 102 58 99 61 / 10 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 72 101 69 101 64 / 10 20 20 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 171749
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
MORNING BOUT OF STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO CLEAR AND WILL EXIT
KCDS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BEYOND THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN KLBB AND KCDS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A VERY REMOTE CHANCE IT COULD SPARK A
STORM...BUT PROSPECTS OF THIS ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
KCDS TAF. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK WESTWARD
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND TEND TO HOLD THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND BEST PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
NORTHWARD. THAT SAID...KCDS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...PERHAPS EVEN LIFR IF THE MOISTURE SURGE IS BETTER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBB LATE TONIGHT UNDERNEATH
THE STRENGTHENING LLJ. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN VISIT BOTH TERMINALS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHICH WILL SEE THE SUN VERY SOON. HAVE UPDATED
THE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
HEAT...WITH MANY SPOTS NEAR OR ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND HELP KEEP HIGHS
DOWN IN THE 90S. OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH AT LUBBOCK IS 101
DEGREES /SET IN 1996/...SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER THIS
CAN BE TOUCHED OR ECLIPSED. AS REFLECTED IN THE BROAD FOG/STRATUS
DECK THIS MORNING...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MADE A STRONG PUSH WELL
UP ONTO THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WAS
ALREADY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE DRYLINE TO STRETCH
ROUGHLY FROM A TULIA TO GUTHRIE LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EYES
WILL BE ON THIS BOUNDARY FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED MOIST CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MINIMAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
WILL KEEP THE INSTABILITY CAPPED LOCALLY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
MAY BE TO OUR EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY FORM WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INTENSE HEATING ARE
MAXIMIZED. THAT SAID...IF A STORM CAN FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LOCALLY...THERE WILL BE STRONG INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND MODEST
SHEAR...SO IT WOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH POPS AT OR
BELOW 10 PERCENT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A HART TO
LUBBOCK TO POST TO ASPERMONT LINE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...WITH THE LUBBOCK
AIRPORT DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/8 MILE RECENTLY...THOUGH WE DO EXPECT
THE VISIBILITIES TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
HENCE...HAVE CHOSEN TO HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED ATTM.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 93 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 61 95 58 90 56 / 10 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 59 96 57 90 58 / 0 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 63 97 58 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 65 98 59 91 59 / 0 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 65 96 60 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 98 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 68 99 64 95 61 / 10 20 20 0 10
SPUR 65 102 61 95 62 / 10 20 10 0 10
ASPERMONT 70 101 64 99 63 / 10 20 20 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99/99
000
FXUS64 KLUB 171711 AAB
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES...WHICH WILL SEE THE SUN VERY SOON. HAVE UPDATED
THE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE
HEAT...WITH MANY SPOTS NEAR OR ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE
EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND HELP KEEP HIGHS
DOWN IN THE 90S. OF NOTE...THE RECORD HIGH AT LUBBOCK IS 101
DEGREES /SET IN 1996/...SO IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL WHETHER THIS
CAN BE TOUCHED OR ECLIPSED. AS REFLECTED IN THE BROAD FOG/STRATUS
DECK THIS MORNING...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MADE A STRONG PUSH WELL
UP ONTO THE CAPROCK THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE WAS
ALREADY MIXING OUT AND EXPECT THE EFFECTIVE DRYLINE TO STRETCH
ROUGHLY FROM A TULIA TO GUTHRIE LINE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EYES
WILL BE ON THIS BOUNDARY FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED MOIST CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MINIMAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
WILL KEEP THE INSTABILITY CAPPED LOCALLY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
MAY BE TO OUR EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY FORM WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INTENSE HEATING ARE
MAXIMIZED. THAT SAID...IF A STORM CAN FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LOCALLY...THERE WILL BE STRONG INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND MODEST
SHEAR...SO IT WOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY. THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH POPS AT OR
BELOW 10 PERCENT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A HART TO
LUBBOCK TO POST TO ASPERMONT LINE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...WITH THE LUBBOCK
AIRPORT DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/8 MILE RECENTLY...THOUGH WE DO EXPECT
THE VISIBILITIES TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
HENCE...HAVE CHOSEN TO HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED ATTM.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE PERSISTED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...SOME DEGREE OF LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT KLBB WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG ROLL IN EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING CLEARS SKIES OUT BY 15Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP ADVERTISING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 98 58 93 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 100 61 95 58 90 / 10 10 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 100 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 99 63 97 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 65 98 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 98 65 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 65 98 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 68 99 64 95 / 10 10 20 20 0
SPUR 101 65 102 61 95 / 0 10 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 103 70 101 64 99 / 10 10 20 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99
000
FXUS64 KLUB 171353 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
853 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD TO A HART TO
LUBBOCK TO POST TO ASPERMONT LINE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO
REFLECT THIS. FOG HAS BEEN LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...WITH THE LUBBOCK
AIRPORT DROPPING AS LOW AS 1/8 MILE RECENTLY...THOUGH WE DO EXPECT
THE VISIBILITIES TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
HENCE...HAVE CHOSEN TO HANDLE THE PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED ATTM.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE PERSISTED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...SOME DEGREE OF LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT KLBB WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG ROLL IN EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING CLEARS SKIES OUT BY 15Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP ADVERTISING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 98 58 93 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 100 61 95 58 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 100 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 99 63 97 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 65 98 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 98 65 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 65 98 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 68 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 20 0
SPUR 101 65 102 61 95 / 0 0 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 103 70 101 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
23/99
000
FXUS64 KLUB 171211
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
711 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THIS MORNING AS LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE PERSISTED FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE...SOME DEGREE OF LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY SEE FOG
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT KLBB WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG ROLL IN EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING CLEARS SKIES OUT BY 15Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO
GROUP ADVERTISING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 98 58 93 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 100 61 95 58 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 100 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 99 63 97 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 65 98 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 98 65 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 65 98 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 68 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 20 0
SPUR 101 65 102 61 95 / 0 0 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 103 70 101 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31
000
FXUS64 KLUB 170858
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
358 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...
CONCERNS THIS MORNING FOCUS AROUND FOG AND STRATUS PUSHING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. CHILDRESS CURRENTLY SOCKED IN WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1 MILE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN BACKED AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND IN
WAKE OF A RETREATING DRYLINE.
MIXING WILL COMMENCE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND MIX OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS WILL NOT MIX OUT AS QUICKLY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAINING
AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH...THUS KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL PUT A DAMPER ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES WHEN COMPARED TO LOCATIONS TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE HOTTEST DAY OF 2013 THUS FAR WILL SEE AREAS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE HOLD IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SOARS INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S UNDERNEATH H85 TEMPERATURES OF 30-31C.
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT...H70
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13-14C DECREASING INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS ANEMIC. DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING WILL BE TOO
STOUT TO PROMOTE CONVECTION DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
ZONES BEHIND THE RETREATING DRYLINE AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEREFORE ONLY
MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID
60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THENCE DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH RIDGING JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PLACE REGION IN
FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITH
TIME. SYSTEM EVOLUTION INTO SUNDAY REMAINS COMPLEX WITH A SECONDARY
LOBE OF ENERGY THAT WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE PARENT LOW
CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MID WEEK...RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL STATES AS NEXT LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS NWRN LOW STALLS OUT AS BLOCKING RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE RESULT OF
THIS FOR US WILL BE A SLOSHING DRYLINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND THEN THINGS WILL STAY DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO OUR EAST. WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE
WILL CONTINUE INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THAT PERIOD--PLEASE
SEE LBBFWFLUB. BY MONDAY NIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY LOW
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT
OF SENSIBLE WX CHANGE. HOWEVER...INTO THURSDAY...THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME INCREASING MOISTURE OUT EAST WHICH COULD YIELD INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 98 58 93 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 100 61 95 58 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 100 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 99 63 97 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 65 98 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 98 65 96 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 99 65 98 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 93 68 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 20 0
SPUR 101 65 102 61 95 / 0 0 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 103 70 101 64 99 / 0 0 20 20 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
31/26
000
FXUS64 KLUB 170444
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
CIGS BELOW 1000FT WERE NOT FAR OFF TO THE EAST OF KCDS AND RAPIDLY
MOVING WEST. LOWERED VISBYS MAY LAG BEHIND THE ADVECTION OF LOW
STRATUS INTO THE TERMINAL. THERE STILL EXISTS HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON
WHETHER THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT INTO KLBB. BASED ON HOW FAST
THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING AND TAKING A PERSISTENCE FORECAST INTO
ACCOUNT...WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT KLBB FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
REDUCED FLIGHT RULES WILL DISSIPATE OUT OF KLBB QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AT
KCDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FORT SUMNER NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS
DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY WEST OF EARLIER PROJECTIONS BUT HAS A DETERMINED
EASTERLY MOTION WITH DEEPLY MIXED DRY AND HOT AIRMASS TO THE WEST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY JUST WEST OF
THE I-27 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 400 PM AND 500 PM...BEFORE EDGING OFF TO
THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING AS FAR EAST AS CHILDRESS OR PADUCAH.
MIXED LAYER CAPES INDICATE ENERGY POTENTIAL NEAR 1500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z SO WOULD
PRODUCE AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST OR EVEN LARGE HAIL
EVENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WOULD TAP INTO THE HIGHER
CAPE AIRMASS LYING NEAR THE RED RIVER.
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD BUILD ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ON FRIDAY. BEST SUB-MENTIONABLE CHANCES MIGHT RUN FROM THE
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE TO THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THOUGH WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE /ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES/ LATE
SATURDAY WHILE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
ADVANCE STEADILY THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WITH A LEAD NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL
CARRY MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WHERE A SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS WITH LIGHT BUT
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. PRESSURES WILL THEN FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY MIX/ADVANCE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WELL OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH
GIVEN THE SETUP WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAT CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT SINCE IT
APPEARS FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT NWP DOES SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT A FAIR AMOUNT ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT STILL COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
THIS INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY WEAK BUT IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES
BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL DRAG THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
GUSTY...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE. SIMILAR WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES UNDER A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK BUT LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR COOLING INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING AS A DRYLINE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR
THE AREA. THIS DRYLINE COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MOISTURE RETURN...DRYLINE LOCATION AND UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AT THE FAR END OF THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID TREND POPS UPWARD WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CAPROCK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AT THE 20 FT
LEVEL...TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES PLUNGE
BELOW 10 PERCENT /TO AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT/. HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TOASTY...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA WIDE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 98 58 94 53 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 58 100 61 95 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 59 100 59 96 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 60 99 63 96 59 / 10 0 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 61 100 64 97 59 / 10 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 57 98 65 95 59 / 0 0 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 59 99 65 95 60 / 10 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 68 99 63 / 20 10 10 20 30
SPUR 64 101 65 97 63 / 20 10 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 103 70 99 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KLUB 162351
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS AND VISBYS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER AT KLBB IF CONDITIONS DO
DETERIORATE. MODELS CURRENTLY FORECAST THE EDGE OF THE CIGS/VISBYS
TO COME CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. THESE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
SCOUR OUT QUICKLY AT KLBB BUT LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT KCDS
WHERE THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FORT SUMNER NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS
DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY WEST OF EARLIER PROJECTIONS BUT HAS A DETERMINED
EASTERLY MOTION WITH DEEPLY MIXED DRY AND HOT AIRMASS TO THE WEST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY JUST WEST OF
THE I-27 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 400 PM AND 500 PM...BEFORE EDGING OFF TO
THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING AS FAR EAST AS CHILDRESS OR PADUCAH.
MIXED LAYER CAPES INDICATE ENERGY POTENTIAL NEAR 1500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z SO WOULD
PRODUCE AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST OR EVEN LARGE HAIL
EVENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WOULD TAP INTO THE HIGHER
CAPE AIRMASS LYING NEAR THE RED RIVER.
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD BUILD ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ON FRIDAY. BEST SUB-MENTIONABLE CHANCES MIGHT RUN FROM THE
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE TO THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THOUGH WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE /ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES/ LATE
SATURDAY WHILE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
ADVANCE STEADILY THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WITH A LEAD NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL
CARRY MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WHERE A SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS WITH LIGHT BUT
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. PRESSURES WILL THEN FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY MIX/ADVANCE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WELL OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH
GIVEN THE SETUP WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAT CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT SINCE IT
APPEARS FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT NWP DOES SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT A FAIR AMOUNT ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT STILL COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
THIS INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY WEAK BUT IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES
BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL DRAG THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
GUSTY...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE. SIMILAR WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES UNDER A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK BUT LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR COOLING INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING AS A DRYLINE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR
THE AREA. THIS DRYLINE COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MOISTURE RETURN...DRYLINE LOCATION AND UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AT THE FAR END OF THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID TREND POPS UPWARD WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY.
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CAPROCK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AT THE 20 FT
LEVEL...TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES PLUNGE
BELOW 10 PERCENT /TO AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT/. HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TOASTY...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA WIDE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 98 58 94 53 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 58 100 61 95 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 59 100 59 96 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 60 99 63 96 59 / 10 0 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 61 100 64 97 59 / 10 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 57 98 65 95 59 / 0 0 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 59 99 65 95 60 / 10 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 68 99 63 / 20 10 10 20 30
SPUR 64 101 65 97 63 / 20 10 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 103 70 99 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KLUB 162035
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FORT SUMNER NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS
DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY WEST OF EARLIER PROJECTIONS BUT HAS A DETERMINED
EASTERLY MOTION WITH DEEPLY MIXED DRY AND HOT AIRMASS TO THE WEST.
LATEST SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INITIALLY JUST WEST OF
THE I-27 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 400 PM AND 500 PM...BEFORE EDGING OFF TO
THE EAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER DARK WITH LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS SURVIVING AS FAR EAST AS CHILDRESS OR PADUCAH.
MIXED LAYER CAPES INDICATE ENERGY POTENTIAL NEAR 1500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z SO WOULD
PRODUCE AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR A SEVERE WIND GUST OR EVEN LARGE HAIL
EVENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WOULD TAP INTO THE HIGHER
CAPE AIRMASS LYING NEAR THE RED RIVER.
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD BUILD ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MENTIONABLE CHANCES FOR
THUNDER ON FRIDAY. BEST SUB-MENTIONABLE CHANCES MIGHT RUN FROM THE
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ELEVATE TO THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. MINOR
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STILL EXPECT
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THOUGH WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING
TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF A DRYLINE /ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES/ LATE
SATURDAY WHILE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE DRYLINE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
ADVANCE STEADILY THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WITH A LEAD NEGATIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
LATE SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL
CARRY MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY.
INITIALLY...THERE COULD EVEN BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN MOST ZONES WHERE A SFC BOUNDARY LINGERS WITH LIGHT BUT
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. PRESSURES WILL THEN FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE SATURDAY...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY BREEZY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THE DRYLINE MAY MIX/ADVANCE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WELL OFF THE CAPROCK...THOUGH
GIVEN THE SETUP WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE DRYLINE IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THAT CURRENTLY PROGGED. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT SINCE IT
APPEARS FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT NWP DOES SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT A FAIR AMOUNT ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT STILL COULD HAVE AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE.
THIS INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY WEAK BUT IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. WEST OF THE DRYLINE...GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES
BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY AND THIS WILL DRAG THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE AREA WITH
GUSTY...WARM AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE. SIMILAR WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES UNDER A DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK BUT LIKELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR COOLING INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MIDWEEK WITH MOISTURE LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING AS A DRYLINE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE SOMEWHERE IN/NEAR
THE AREA. THIS DRYLINE COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
MOISTURE RETURN...DRYLINE LOCATION AND UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AT THE FAR END OF THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID TREND POPS UPWARD WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CAPROCK SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AT THE 20 FT
LEVEL...TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND HUMIDITIES PLUNGE
BELOW 10 PERCENT /TO AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT/. HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH TOASTY...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER AREA WIDE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 55 98 58 94 53 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 58 100 61 95 57 / 10 10 10 10 10
PLAINVIEW 59 100 59 96 58 / 10 10 10 10 10
LEVELLAND 60 99 63 96 59 / 10 0 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 61 100 64 97 59 / 10 0 10 10 10
DENVER CITY 57 98 65 95 59 / 0 0 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 59 99 65 95 60 / 10 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 64 96 68 99 63 / 20 10 10 20 30
SPUR 64 101 65 97 63 / 20 10 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 103 70 99 67 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
05/23
000
FXUS64 KLUB 161729
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
SURFACE DRY-LINE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST EAST OF KLBB WILL BE A
POSSIBLE LOCATION FOR HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF KLBB. AN UPPER
LEVEL CAP WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE AT ODDS WITH A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE EDGING EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO. SLIM POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR
KLBB. ANY THUNDERSTORMS UNLIKELY TO PERSIST AS FAR EAST AS KCDS
ALTHOUGH DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH AN IFR CLOUD LAYER LIKELY
TO SPREAD INTO KCDS AND THEN KLBB OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY ALSO
DROP TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS AT KLBB AGAIN NEAR DAYBREAK. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...
FOG AND STRATUS CLEARING RAPIDLY AT KLBB. QUICK TAF AMENDMENT TO
CLEAR OUT TEMPO GROUP AND ALSO TO ADJUST FOR A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE THROUGH THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT KLBB THOUGH THE CITY REMAINS
CAVU AS OF THIS WRITING...THUS...THE FIELD IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.
THESE REDUCTIONS ARE BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD WASH OUT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING.
THEREAFTER...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS AFFECTING THE AIRPORT ONLY ABOUT 10-20 PCT AT THIS TIME
THUS PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAF. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD BASES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIKELY
UNDER ANYTHING THAT PRECIPITATES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WHILE MODEST RIDGING IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WREAKED HAVOC NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...SMALL SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO OUT TO EL PASO. IN COMPARING RAOBS WITH
00Z INITIALIZATION...NWP SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYZED THIS FEATURE JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT THE OBS SUGGEST IS CLOSER TO REALITY. GIVEN AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER...THIS WILL PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE THENCE OUT TOWARD THE BIG BEND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ALL THREE MAJOR NWP SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPWARD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA. AT 2AM THIS BDRY WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON. THIS PLUS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD END UP NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
SUNRISE AND MIX EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS
FAR AS YESTERDAY...PERHAPS ENDING UP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR. WESTERN EXTENT OF THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG WILL EXIST. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE
NARROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE ANEMIC
WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT.
GIVEN ANGLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY IN
WEST TEXAS. FARTHER WEST...SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
OUT WEST...THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN.
LONG TERM...
WE WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TOMORROW...THANKS TO AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATING UA RIDGE AND 850 MB TEMPS AOA 30 DEGREES. THE TEMP AT
KLBB IS FORECAST TO BE 99 DEGREES WHICH IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1996 /COULD BE A CLOSE CALL/. CONCURRENTLY A BROAD UA
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ESE TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WHICH
WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. AS SUCH...SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TOMORROW GIVEN A STRONG CAP...BUT THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE THE
CASE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE TREKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THUS NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL COOL TEMPS OFF JUST A BIT /LOWER TO
UPPER 90S/ BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE
REGION LEADING TO BREEZY S TO SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND AS SUCH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE AFTN. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO ABOVE NORM TEMPS...RHS 5-15 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY IS IMPROVED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND THE CAP APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AN EXITING UA RIDGE AND HENCE SUBSIDENCE BEING
LESS INFLUENTIAL. MODEL RUNS GENERALLY BREAK OUT STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING /AFTER 18Z/ COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-3.0 KJ/KG COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ELEVATED STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THIS QPF SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.
AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE BROAD UA DISTURBANCE EJECTS NE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO FILTER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL NOT COOL US DOWN MUCH /80S AND 90S/ BUT WILL AID IN
ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WRLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ON MONDAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY /80S AND 90S/. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND
DOWN ITS ASSOCIATED FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING /PER THE ECMWF/ OR HANGING UP ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE IT WASHES OUT /PER THE GFS/. THUS...TEMPS WILL
EITHER BY RELATIVELY WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IF FOLLOWING THE GFS
AND ECMWF RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF ATTM /HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S/ AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO IS A
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS CURRENT GFS RUN...VERSUS THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF. UA RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND
WARMTH WILL RESUME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 58 96 60 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
TULIA 91 60 98 62 94 / 20 20 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 61 98 64 95 / 20 20 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 95 60 98 64 95 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 62 100 67 96 / 20 20 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 58 96 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 98 60 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 63 96 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 94 66 100 65 96 / 20 20 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 95 69 102 68 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
000
FXUS64 KLUB 161358
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
858 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
FOG AND STRATUS CLEARING RAPIDLY AT KLBB. QUICK TAF AMENDMENT TO
CLEAR OUT TEMPO GROUP AND ALSO TO ADJUST FOR A LIGHT NORTHERLY
BREEZE THROUGH THE MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT KLBB THOUGH THE CITY REMAINS
CAVU AS OF THIS WRITING...THUS...THE FIELD IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.
THESE REDUCTIONS ARE BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD WASH OUT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING.
THEREAFTER...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS AFFECTING THE AIRPORT ONLY ABOUT 10-20 PCT AT THIS TIME
THUS PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAF. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD BASES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIKELY
UNDER ANYTHING THAT PRECIPITATES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WHILE MODEST RIDGING IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WREAKED HAVOC NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...SMALL SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO OUT TO EL PASO. IN COMPARING RAOBS WITH
00Z INITIALIZATION...NWP SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYZED THIS FEATURE JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT THE OBS SUGGEST IS CLOSER TO REALITY. GIVEN AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER...THIS WILL PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE THENCE OUT TOWARD THE BIG BEND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ALL THREE MAJOR NWP SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPWARD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA. AT 2AM THIS BDRY WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON. THIS PLUS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD END UP NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
SUNRISE AND MIX EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS
FAR AS YESTERDAY...PERHAPS ENDING UP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR. WESTERN EXTENT OF THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG WILL EXIST. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE
NARROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE ANEMIC
WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT.
GIVEN ANGLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY IN
WEST TEXAS. FARTHER WEST...SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
OUT WEST...THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN.
LONG TERM...
WE WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TOMORROW...THANKS TO AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATING UA RIDGE AND 850 MB TEMPS AOA 30 DEGREES. THE TEMP AT
KLBB IS FORECAST TO BE 99 DEGREES WHICH IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1996 /COULD BE A CLOSE CALL/. CONCURRENTLY A BROAD UA
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ESE TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WHICH
WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. AS SUCH...SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TOMORROW GIVEN A STRONG CAP...BUT THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE THE
CASE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE TREKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THUS NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL COOL TEMPS OFF JUST A BIT /LOWER TO
UPPER 90S/ BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE
REGION LEADING TO BREEZY S TO SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND AS SUCH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE AFTN. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO ABOVE NORM TEMPS...RHS 5-15 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY IS IMPROVED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND THE CAP APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AN EXITING UA RIDGE AND HENCE SUBSIDENCE BEING
LESS INFLUENTIAL. MODEL RUNS GENERALLY BREAK OUT STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING /AFTER 18Z/ COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-3.0 KJ/KG COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ELEVATED STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THIS QPF SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.
AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE BROAD UA DISTURBANCE EJECTS NE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO FILTER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL NOT COOL US DOWN MUCH /80S AND 90S/ BUT WILL AID IN
ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WRLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ON MONDAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY /80S AND 90S/. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND
DOWN ITS ASSOCIATED FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING /PER THE ECMWF/ OR HANGING UP ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE IT WASHES OUT /PER THE GFS/. THUS...TEMPS WILL
EITHER BY RELATIVELY WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IF FOLLOWING THE GFS
AND ECMWF RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF ATTM /HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S/ AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO IS A
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS CURRENT GFS RUN...VERSUS THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF. UA RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND
WARMTH WILL RESUME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 58 96 60 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
TULIA 91 60 98 62 94 / 20 20 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 61 98 64 95 / 20 20 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 95 60 98 64 95 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 62 100 67 96 / 20 20 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 58 96 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 98 60 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 63 96 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 94 66 100 65 96 / 20 20 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 95 69 102 68 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ023-024-029-030-035-036.
&&
$$
99/99/05
000
FXUS64 KLUB 161121
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO BOTH TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE AT KLBB THOUGH THE CITY REMAINS
CAVU AS OF THIS WRITING...THUS...THE FIELD IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE.
THESE REDUCTIONS ARE BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD WASH OUT WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING.
THEREAFTER...PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY AT KLBB. CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS AFFECTING THE AIRPORT ONLY ABOUT 10-20 PCT AT THIS TIME
THUS PRECLUDING MENTION IN THE TAF. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD BASES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIKELY
UNDER ANYTHING THAT PRECIPITATES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WHILE MODEST RIDGING IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WREAKED HAVOC NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...SMALL SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO OUT TO EL PASO. IN COMPARING RAOBS WITH
00Z INITIALIZATION...NWP SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYZED THIS FEATURE JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT THE OBS SUGGEST IS CLOSER TO REALITY. GIVEN AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER...THIS WILL PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE THENCE OUT TOWARD THE BIG BEND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ALL THREE MAJOR NWP SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPWARD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA. AT 2AM THIS BDRY WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON. THIS PLUS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD END UP NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
SUNRISE AND MIX EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS
FAR AS YESTERDAY...PERHAPS ENDING UP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR. WESTERN EXTENT OF THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG WILL EXIST. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE
NARROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE ANEMIC
WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT.
GIVEN ANGLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY IN
WEST TEXAS. FARTHER WEST...SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
OUT WEST...THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN.
LONG TERM...
WE WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TOMORROW...THANKS TO AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATING UA RIDGE AND 850 MB TEMPS AOA 30 DEGREES. THE TEMP AT
KLBB IS FORECAST TO BE 99 DEGREES WHICH IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1996 /COULD BE A CLOSE CALL/. CONCURRENTLY A BROAD UA
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ESE TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WHICH
WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. AS SUCH...SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TOMORROW GIVEN A STRONG CAP...BUT THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE THE
CASE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE TREKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THUS NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL COOL TEMPS OFF JUST A BIT /LOWER TO
UPPER 90S/ BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE
REGION LEADING TO BREEZY S TO SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND AS SUCH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE AFTN. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO ABOVE NORM TEMPS...RHS 5-15 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY IS IMPROVED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND THE CAP APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AN EXITING UA RIDGE AND HENCE SUBSIDENCE BEING
LESS INFLUENTIAL. MODEL RUNS GENERALLY BREAK OUT STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING /AFTER 18Z/ COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-3.0 KJ/KG COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ELEVATED STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THIS QPF SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.
AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE BROAD UA DISTURBANCE EJECTS NE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO FILTER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL NOT COOL US DOWN MUCH /80S AND 90S/ BUT WILL AID IN
ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WRLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ON MONDAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY /80S AND 90S/. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND
DOWN ITS ASSOCIATED FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING /PER THE ECMWF/ OR HANGING UP ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE IT WASHES OUT /PER THE GFS/. THUS...TEMPS WILL
EITHER BY RELATIVELY WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IF FOLLOWING THE GFS
AND ECMWF RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF ATTM /HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S/ AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO IS A
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS CURRENT GFS RUN...VERSUS THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF. UA RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND
WARMTH WILL RESUME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 58 96 60 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
TULIA 91 60 98 62 94 / 20 20 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 61 98 64 95 / 20 20 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 95 60 98 64 95 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 62 100 67 96 / 20 20 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 58 96 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 98 60 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 63 96 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 94 66 100 65 96 / 20 20 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 95 69 102 68 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
000
FXUS64 KLUB 160921
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
WHILE MODEST RIDGING IS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHICH WREAKED HAVOC NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...SMALL SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS SITUATED ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE ROCKIES FROM COLORADO OUT TO EL PASO. IN COMPARING RAOBS WITH
00Z INITIALIZATION...NWP SEEMS TO HAVE ANALYZED THIS FEATURE JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN WHAT THE OBS SUGGEST IS CLOSER TO REALITY. GIVEN AN
HOUR OR TWO SLOWER...THIS WILL PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE PANHANDLE THENCE OUT TOWARD THE BIG BEND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS IN ALL THREE MAJOR NWP SOLUTIONS
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPWARD LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SAGGING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA. AT 2AM THIS BDRY WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MULESHOE TO LUBBOCK TO JAYTON. THIS PLUS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD END UP NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE BY
SUNRISE AND MIX EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT LIKELY NOT NEARLY AS
FAR AS YESTERDAY...PERHAPS ENDING UP ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR. WESTERN EXTENT OF THETA-E RIDGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MUCAPE OF 2-2.5 KJ/KG WILL EXIST. IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION MAY BE QUITE
NARROW AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE ANEMIC
WITH 0-6KM BULK VALUES LESS THAN 25 KTS THOUGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT.
GIVEN ANGLE BETWEEN MID LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DO FORM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER ALL...IT IS MAY IN
WEST TEXAS. FARTHER WEST...SOME VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
OUT WEST...THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM...
WE WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
90S TO TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS TOMORROW...THANKS TO AN EASTWARD
TRANSLATING UA RIDGE AND 850 MB TEMPS AOA 30 DEGREES. THE TEMP AT
KLBB IS FORECAST TO BE 99 DEGREES WHICH IS ONLY 2 DEGREES SHY OF THE
RECORD SET IN 1996 /COULD BE A CLOSE CALL/. CONCURRENTLY A BROAD UA
TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ESE TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...WHICH
WILL VEER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW. AS SUCH...SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK
WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DRYLINE TO NEAR THE
SERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE TOMORROW GIVEN A STRONG CAP...BUT THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE THE
CASE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE TREKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THUS NEARING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL COOL TEMPS OFF JUST A BIT /LOWER TO
UPPER 90S/ BUT WILL ALSO PROMOTE A DEEPENING SFC LOW NW OF THE
REGION LEADING TO BREEZY S TO SW WINDS /20-25 MPH/ AND AS SUCH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THE AFTN. ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE
DRYLINE...DUE TO ABOVE NORM TEMPS...RHS 5-15 PERCENT AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SATURDAY IS IMPROVED GIVEN THE
EXPECTED BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND THE CAP APPEARS WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY DUE TO AN EXITING UA RIDGE AND HENCE SUBSIDENCE BEING
LESS INFLUENTIAL. MODEL RUNS GENERALLY BREAK OUT STORMS LATE IN THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING /AFTER 18Z/ COINCIDING WITH A WEAKENING CAP.
SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1.0-3.0 KJ/KG COMBINED WITH 25-35 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ELEVATED STORMS
REACHING STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AS
THIS QPF SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWN FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
MODEL RUNS.
AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE OF THE BROAD UA DISTURBANCE EJECTS NE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ITS ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO FILTER ACROSS THE CWA...AND THEREFORE SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL NOT COOL US DOWN MUCH /80S AND 90S/ BUT WILL AID IN
ENCOURAGING ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY DUE TO DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WRLY WINDS WILL ENSUE ON MONDAY...MAKING
FOR ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY /80S AND 90S/. THE MEAN TROUGH WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEND
DOWN ITS ASSOCIATED FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING /PER THE ECMWF/ OR HANGING UP ACROSS THE SERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE IT WASHES OUT /PER THE GFS/. THUS...TEMPS WILL
EITHER BY RELATIVELY WARM OR SLIGHTLY COOLER IF FOLLOWING THE GFS
AND ECMWF RESPECTIVELY. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE ECMWF ATTM /HIGHS IN
THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S/ AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO IS A
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS CURRENT GFS RUN...VERSUS THE MORE
PERSISTENT ECMWF. UA RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK AND
WARMTH WILL RESUME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 92 58 96 60 93 / 10 10 0 10 0
TULIA 91 60 98 62 94 / 20 20 0 10 10
PLAINVIEW 93 61 98 64 95 / 20 20 0 10 10
LEVELLAND 95 60 98 64 95 / 10 10 0 10 0
LUBBOCK 95 62 100 67 96 / 20 20 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 58 96 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
BROWNFIELD 98 60 98 64 94 / 10 10 0 10 0
CHILDRESS 91 63 96 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
SPUR 94 66 100 65 96 / 20 20 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 95 69 102 68 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/29
000
FXUS64 KLUB 160428
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
SLIGHT CHANCE AT FOG AND LOW CIGS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY AT KCDS AS WINDS GO LIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
INCREDIBLY HIGH IN THIS OCCURRENCE SO HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AT KCDS FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR KLBB.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND TO
CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160. A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
WERE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT WERE QUICKLY
WEAKENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A NUMBER OF CONTRIBUTING AND COMPLICATING FEATURES TODAY...THOUGH
THE SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM NEAR LEVELLAND THROUGH
TAHOKA TOWARDS GAIL AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DRY-LINE WITH A BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL MOISTEN
YET ALSO COOL. SO...SIDED WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS FAVORING THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT TO STEER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DRY-LINE
AREA THOUGH RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL FURTHER NORTH. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS VALID
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STEERS OFF TO THE EAST WHICH CONTRIBUTES TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD MORE CONFIDENTIALLY FILL A NARROW ZONE NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS ZONE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE DISAGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS GO-AROUND.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES
THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE HOTTEST
DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S...WITH EVEN LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOPEFULLY LUBBOCK CAN STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...WHICH
SITS AT 101 DEGREES /SET IN 1996/ THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE MOIST SECTOR CAPPED. THIS MAY CHANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH/ALL OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX/ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE WHILE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON EXACTLY WHEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING SHEAR SUPPORTING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WINDING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY SHUNT
THE DRYLINE /COUPLED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/ EAST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER. THINGS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW.
AFTER PEAKING FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STILL...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 10 0 10
TULIA 57 95 57 98 61 / 20 20 20 0 10
PLAINVIEW 57 95 61 98 64 / 20 20 20 0 10
LEVELLAND 57 96 61 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 57 96 63 100 67 / 20 20 20 0 10
DENVER CITY 59 96 59 96 63 / 20 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 58 97 60 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 62 92 65 98 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
SPUR 60 95 62 100 65 / 20 10 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 96 64 102 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KLUB 160208 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
908 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST AND TO
CANCEL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160. A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
WERE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT WERE QUICKLY
WEAKENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A NUMBER OF CONTRIBUTING AND COMPLICATING FEATURES TODAY...THOUGH
THE SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM NEAR LEVELLAND THROUGH
TAHOKA TOWARDS GAIL AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DRY-LINE WITH A BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL MOISTEN
YET ALSO COOL. SO...SIDED WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS FAVORING THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT TO STEER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DRY-LINE
AREA THOUGH RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL FURTHER NORTH. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS VALID
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STEERS OFF TO THE EAST WHICH CONTRIBUTES TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD MORE CONFIDENTIALLY FILL A NARROW ZONE NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS ZONE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE DISAGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS GO-AROUND.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES
THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE HOTTEST
DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S...WITH EVEN LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOPEFULLY LUBBOCK CAN STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...WHICH
SITS AT 101 DEGREES /SET IN 1996/ THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE MOIST SECTOR CAPPED. THIS MAY CHANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH/ALL OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX/ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE WHILE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON EXACTLY WHEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING SHEAR SUPPORTING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WINDING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY SHUNT
THE DRYLINE /COUPLED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/ EAST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER. THINGS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW.
AFTER PEAKING FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STILL...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 10 0 10
TULIA 57 95 57 98 61 / 20 20 20 0 10
PLAINVIEW 57 95 61 98 64 / 20 20 20 0 10
LEVELLAND 57 96 61 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 57 96 63 100 67 / 20 20 20 0 10
DENVER CITY 59 96 59 96 63 / 20 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 58 97 60 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 62 92 65 98 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
SPUR 60 95 62 100 65 / 20 10 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 96 64 102 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
000
FXUS64 KLUB 152325
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.AVIATION...
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANCE AT REDEVELOPMENT AFFECTING
EITHER TAF SITE. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE VARIABLE EARLY THIS
EVENING AT KLBB WITH DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION BUT GENERAL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT KLBB BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO MENTION ANYTHING IN THE TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A NUMBER OF CONTRIBUTING AND COMPLICATING FEATURES TODAY...THOUGH
THE SURFACE DRY-LINE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM NEAR LEVELLAND THROUGH
TAHOKA TOWARDS GAIL AND HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND EAST OF
THE DRY-LINE WITH A BACKING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL MOISTEN
YET ALSO COOL. SO...SIDED WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS FAVORING THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT TO STEER MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DRY-LINE
AREA THOUGH RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE AS WELL FURTHER NORTH. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS VALID
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STEERS OFF TO THE EAST WHICH CONTRIBUTES TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTY OF POTENTIALLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH THE SURFACE
DRY-LINE SHOULD MORE CONFIDENTIALLY FILL A NARROW ZONE NORTH-SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL OR EAST-CENTRAL ZONES. WE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS ZONE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE DISAGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES THIS GO-AROUND.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES
THE MIDSECTION OF THE NATION FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE HOTTEST
DAY SO FAR THIS SPRING WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S...WITH EVEN LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOPEFULLY LUBBOCK CAN STAY BELOW THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DAY...WHICH
SITS AT 101 DEGREES /SET IN 1996/ THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL.
THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES BY LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE MOIST SECTOR CAPPED. THIS MAY CHANGE BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SUPPORT A STOUT SOUTHERLY LLJ EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH/ALL OF THE FA.
HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
MIX/ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE WHILE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS
COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON EXACTLY WHEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AT LEAST THE EASTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A
DECENT SHOT OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
IMPROVING SHEAR SUPPORTING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WINDING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL LIKELY SHUNT
THE DRYLINE /COUPLED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT/ EAST OF THE CWA
SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY AND DRY WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER. THINGS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER WARM...DRY AND BREEZY DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A STORM
SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENTLY IT APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...AND THUS POPS REMAIN LOW.
AFTER PEAKING FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
STILL...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 10 0 10
TULIA 57 95 57 98 61 / 20 20 20 0 10
PLAINVIEW 57 95 61 98 64 / 20 20 20 0 10
LEVELLAND 57 96 61 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
LUBBOCK 57 96 63 100 67 / 20 20 20 0 10
DENVER CITY 59 96 59 96 63 / 20 10 10 0 10
BROWNFIELD 58 97 60 98 64 / 20 10 10 0 10
CHILDRESS 62 92 65 98 69 / 20 10 10 10 10
SPUR 60 95 62 100 65 / 20 10 20 10 10
ASPERMONT 64 96 64 102 68 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
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