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000
FXUS64 KLUB 010828
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS LEFT BEHIND FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS...LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG TX/NM BORDER
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
BE LIMITED WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO OUR WEST AND WARMER
TEMPS AND DEEPER SURFACE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPS THAT MAY
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS...CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH IN LUBBOCK FOR
SUNDAY IS 56...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP FOR MAY 1ST IS 54 SET IN 1990.
COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER
LOW MEANDERS ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
LOOKING VERY LIKELY THAT CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM FROM LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGING AS WELL AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING SOUTH
TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEVERELY LIMIT PRECIP
ENOUGH CHANCES EARLY MONDAY...ENOUGH SO TO REMOVE PRECIP MENTION
FROM THE FCST THAT DAY. WILL STILL BE A BIT OF REINFORCING COOL
AIR INTO THE FCST AREA THAT DAY...BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE OFFSET
BY MORE INSOLATION THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS
UP A BIT IN LINE WITH MODEL BLEND AND JUST BELOW MOS CONSENSUS.

MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE TO
THE SSE DOWN THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WRF-NAM AND ECWMF
HAVE A STRONGER SIGNAL WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS MOVE INTO NWRN ZONES AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
TIMING NOW FAVORS TUESDAY AFTN RATHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY...ANOTHER UPPER WILL FORM OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE WEEK.
SLOWER PROGRESSION EWD OF THIS LOW SUGGESTS SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE WRN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING NOW EVEN MORE SLIGHT. STILL
APPEARS THAT DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EDGES EWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010828
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS LEFT BEHIND FROM THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS...LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG TX/NM BORDER
SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
BE LIMITED WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO OUR WEST AND WARMER
TEMPS AND DEEPER SURFACE MOISTURE TO OUR EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPS THAT MAY
APPROACH RECORD LEVELS...CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH IN LUBBOCK FOR
SUNDAY IS 56...RECORD LOW HIGH TEMP FOR MAY 1ST IS 54 SET IN 1990.
COOLER AIR IS REINFORCED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER
LOW MEANDERS ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
LOOKING VERY LIKELY THAT CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM FROM LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGING AS WELL AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING SOUTH
TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEVERELY LIMIT PRECIP
ENOUGH CHANCES EARLY MONDAY...ENOUGH SO TO REMOVE PRECIP MENTION
FROM THE FCST THAT DAY. WILL STILL BE A BIT OF REINFORCING COOL
AIR INTO THE FCST AREA THAT DAY...BUT EVEN THAT LOOKS TO BE OFFSET
BY MORE INSOLATION THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS
UP A BIT IN LINE WITH MODEL BLEND AND JUST BELOW MOS CONSENSUS.

MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE TO
THE SSE DOWN THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WRF-NAM AND ECWMF
HAVE A STRONGER SIGNAL WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
SHOWERS MOVE INTO NWRN ZONES AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
TIMING NOW FAVORS TUESDAY AFTN RATHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY...ANOTHER UPPER WILL FORM OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE WEEK.
SLOWER PROGRESSION EWD OF THIS LOW SUGGESTS SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE WRN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING NOW EVEN MORE SLIGHT. STILL
APPEARS THAT DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EDGES EWD TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 010453
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. CIGS MAY DIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND MID
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS STARTING LATE LATER IN THE MORNING WITH PVW AND
LBB HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN. GIVEN THAT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN A
PREVAILING -RA CATEGORY IS NOT WARRANTED IN THE TAFS. THE TAFS
WILL BE AMENDED AS NEEDED FOR RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STOUT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT GIVING RISE TO
SUBSIDENCE WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP. WE WILL THEN TURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT EJECTS OUT
OF ARIZONA ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT RAIN...NON-ZERO CHANCES EXIST OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO. WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WILL
LEAD TO A VERY COOL DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
50S AND 60S.

LONG TERM...
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL START TO TAPER OFF. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THE
SAME TIME. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING EAST AND WE
SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT FROM UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
SOMETIME IN THE MORNING WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT AVAILABLE. DID TAPER POPS BACK FOR MONDAY MORNING AND
COMPLETELY REMOVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO REDUCING THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RIDGING WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PLACE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE STILL PRETTY BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVING THE COMPLEX
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET BUT THE NAM SOLUTION APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE ECMWF IS GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ALONG A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DOES NOT SHOW. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS
THE DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AND APPEAR TO BE DUE TO THE
GFS AND NAM DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING THE DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR EAST BEYOND
THAT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN OF THE
DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE DRYLINE SHAPING UP WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. DID INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BUT KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN DRYLINE POSITION...CAP STRENGTH...AND
STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 302302
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. CIGS MAY DIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY
TO MID MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS STARTING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH PVW AND LBB HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING
RAIN. GIVEN THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN A PREVAILING -RA CATEGORY IS NOT WARRANTED IN
THE TAFS. THE TAFS WILL BE AMENDED AS NEEDED FOR RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STOUT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT GIVING RISE TO
SUBSIDENCE WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP. WE WILL THEN TURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT EJECTS OUT
OF ARIZONA ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT RAIN...NON-ZERO CHANCES EXIST OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO. WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WILL
LEAD TO A VERY COOL DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
50S AND 60S.

LONG TERM...
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL START TO TAPER OFF. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THE
SAME TIME. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING EAST AND WE
SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT FROM UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
SOMETIME IN THE MORNING WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT AVAILABLE. DID TAPER POPS BACK FOR MONDAY MORNING AND
COMPLETELY REMOVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO REDUCING THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RIDGING WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PLACE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE STILL PRETTY BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVING THE COMPLEX
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET BUT THE NAM SOLUTION APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE ECMWF IS GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ALONG A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DOES NOT SHOW. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS
THE DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AND APPEAR TO BE DUE TO THE
GFS AND NAM DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING THE DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR EAST BEYOND
THAT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN OF THE
DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE DRYLINE SHAPING UP WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. DID INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BUT KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN DRYLINE POSITION...CAP STRENGTH...AND
STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 302302
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
602 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. CIGS MAY DIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY EARLY
TO MID MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE TAFS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS STARTING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WITH PVW AND LBB HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING
RAIN. GIVEN THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN A PREVAILING -RA CATEGORY IS NOT WARRANTED IN
THE TAFS. THE TAFS WILL BE AMENDED AS NEEDED FOR RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STOUT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT GIVING RISE TO
SUBSIDENCE WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP. WE WILL THEN TURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT EJECTS OUT
OF ARIZONA ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT RAIN...NON-ZERO CHANCES EXIST OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO. WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WILL
LEAD TO A VERY COOL DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
50S AND 60S.

LONG TERM...
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL START TO TAPER OFF. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THE
SAME TIME. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING EAST AND WE
SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT FROM UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
SOMETIME IN THE MORNING WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT AVAILABLE. DID TAPER POPS BACK FOR MONDAY MORNING AND
COMPLETELY REMOVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO REDUCING THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RIDGING WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PLACE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE STILL PRETTY BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVING THE COMPLEX
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET BUT THE NAM SOLUTION APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE ECMWF IS GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ALONG A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DOES NOT SHOW. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS
THE DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AND APPEAR TO BE DUE TO THE
GFS AND NAM DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING THE DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR EAST BEYOND
THAT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN OF THE
DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE DRYLINE SHAPING UP WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. DID INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BUT KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN DRYLINE POSITION...CAP STRENGTH...AND
STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 302030
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING HOW THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL AFFECT OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ATTEMPT
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STOUT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT GIVING RISE TO
SUBSIDENCE WILL ATTEMPT TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP. WE WILL THEN TURN TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT EJECTS OUT
OF ARIZONA ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT RAIN...NON-ZERO CHANCES EXIST OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO. WE WILL SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF SURFACE RIDGING TONIGHT
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY WILL
LEAD TO A VERY COOL DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE
50S AND 60S.

.LONG TERM...
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL START TO TAPER OFF. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AT THE
SAME TIME. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING EAST AND WE
SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT FROM UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
SOMETIME IN THE MORNING WHICH WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC
LIFT AVAILABLE. DID TAPER POPS BACK FOR MONDAY MORNING AND
COMPLETELY REMOVE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO REDUCING THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RIDGING WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY WHICH WILL PLACE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE STILL PRETTY BULLISH ON
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVING THE COMPLEX
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET BUT THE NAM SOLUTION APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE ECMWF IS GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ALONG A PRETTY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT THE GFS
AND CANADIAN DOES NOT SHOW. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS
THE DIFFERENCES ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AND APPEAR TO BE DUE TO THE
GFS AND NAM DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING THE DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR EAST BEYOND
THAT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN OF THE
DRYLINE AND POSSIBLY RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THE DRYLINE SHAPING UP WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. DID INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BUT KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN DRYLINE POSITION...CAP STRENGTH...AND
STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 301713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ALL TAF SITES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY
ALSO DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY WHILE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WILL COMBINE FOR A GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

H85 RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...IN WAKE OF EXITING LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS DESSERT
SOUTHWEST...BEGINS MID LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND CROSS
TX/NM LINE SATURDAY EVENING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. BUT SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SOUTH RESPONDING TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN CALIF
AND ARIZONA LATER TODAY WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO BE DAMPENING AS IT EJECTS...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A
RATHER COOL AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OOZ
MODEL BLEND POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUN/FCST AND STILL APPEAR QUITE
REASONABLE. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST AND AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS SWD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE COOL AIR MONDAY AND WILL HANG ONTO 20-30 PCT POPS. TEMPS
WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THE DAYTIME HIGHS...AS
NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AIR WELL INTO MONDAY AND AS
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW NW FLOW STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE NWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE THEN PRETTY QUICK TO BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE
AREA IMMEDIATELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FCST THAT ENDS WITH FRIDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY LATE WEEK FCST ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 301713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO ALL TAF SITES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY
ALSO DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY WHILE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WILL COMBINE FOR A GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

H85 RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...IN WAKE OF EXITING LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS DESSERT
SOUTHWEST...BEGINS MID LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND CROSS
TX/NM LINE SATURDAY EVENING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. BUT SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SOUTH RESPONDING TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN CALIF
AND ARIZONA LATER TODAY WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO BE DAMPENING AS IT EJECTS...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A
RATHER COOL AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OOZ
MODEL BLEND POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUN/FCST AND STILL APPEAR QUITE
REASONABLE. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST AND AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS SWD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE COOL AIR MONDAY AND WILL HANG ONTO 20-30 PCT POPS. TEMPS
WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THE DAYTIME HIGHS...AS
NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AIR WELL INTO MONDAY AND AS
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW NW FLOW STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE NWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE THEN PRETTY QUICK TO BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE
AREA IMMEDIATELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FCST THAT ENDS WITH FRIDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY LATE WEEK FCST ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 301151
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY WHILE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WILL COMBINE FOR A GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

H85 RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...IN WAKE OF EXITING LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS DESSERT
SOUTHWEST...BEGINS MID LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND CROSS
TX/NM LINE SATURDAY EVENING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. BUT SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SOUTH RESPONDING TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN CALIF
AND ARIZONA LATER TODAY WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO BE DAMPENING AS IT EJECTS...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A
RATHER COOL AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OOZ
MODEL BLEND POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUN/FCST AND STILL APPEAR QUITE
REASONABLE. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST AND AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS SWD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE COOL AIR MONDAY AND WILL HANG ONTO 20-30 PCT POPS. TEMPS
WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THE DAYTIME HIGHS...AS
NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AIR WELL INTO MONDAY AND AS
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW NW FLOW STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE NWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE THEN PRETTY QUICK TO BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE
AREA IMMEDIATELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FCST THAT ENDS WITH FRIDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY LATE WEEK FCST ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 301151
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL THREE TERMINALS WITH LIGHT
WINDS. INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY WHILE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WILL COMBINE FOR A GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

H85 RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...IN WAKE OF EXITING LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS DESSERT
SOUTHWEST...BEGINS MID LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND CROSS
TX/NM LINE SATURDAY EVENING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. BUT SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SOUTH RESPONDING TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN CALIF
AND ARIZONA LATER TODAY WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO BE DAMPENING AS IT EJECTS...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A
RATHER COOL AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OOZ
MODEL BLEND POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUN/FCST AND STILL APPEAR QUITE
REASONABLE. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST AND AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS SWD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE COOL AIR MONDAY AND WILL HANG ONTO 20-30 PCT POPS. TEMPS
WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THE DAYTIME HIGHS...AS
NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AIR WELL INTO MONDAY AND AS
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW NW FLOW STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE NWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE THEN PRETTY QUICK TO BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE
AREA IMMEDIATELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FCST THAT ENDS WITH FRIDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY LATE WEEK FCST ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 300813
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY WHILE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS. PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WILL COMBINE FOR A GREAT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE.

H85 RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF...IN WAKE OF EXITING LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEXT DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS DESSERT
SOUTHWEST...BEGINS MID LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND CROSS
TX/NM LINE SATURDAY EVENING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. BUT SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SOUTH RESPONDING TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN CALIF
AND ARIZONA LATER TODAY WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS NRN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
PROGGED TO BE DAMPENING AS IT EJECTS...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK IN COMBINATION WITH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER A
RATHER COOL AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FCST AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. OOZ
MODEL BLEND POPS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUN/FCST AND STILL APPEAR QUITE
REASONABLE. POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT
SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST AND AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS SWD WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE COOL AIR MONDAY AND WILL HANG ONTO 20-30 PCT POPS. TEMPS
WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY THE DAYTIME HIGHS...AS
NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AIR WELL INTO MONDAY AND AS
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW NW FLOW STORMS TO
MOVE INTO THE NWRN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE THEN PRETTY QUICK TO BRING PRECIP BACK TO THE
AREA IMMEDIATELY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FCST THAT ENDS WITH FRIDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY LATE WEEK FCST ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 300441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CHILDRESS VICINITY
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER COOL CONDITIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
REGION HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...A SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL LIKELY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL BE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AFFECTS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO A MUCH BROADER
WAVE THAN A COMPACT CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A TRANSITION MAINLY INTO
SHOWERS/RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY COOL ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS HANG ON
MONDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND WE SEE
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL START
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND WE SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOP ALOFT. MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE KEEPING IT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE GETTING
CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH EAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NORMAL AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COOL START.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 292313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOME CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR BELOW 5KFT AT PVW AND LBB THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE BKN OR OVC CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CHILDRESS VICINITY
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER COOL CONDITIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
REGION HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...A SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL LIKELY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL BE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AFFECTS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO A MUCH BROADER
WAVE THAN A COMPACT CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A TRANSITION MAINLY INTO
SHOWERS/RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY COOL ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS HANG ON
MONDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND WE SEE
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL START
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND WE SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOP ALOFT. MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE KEEPING IT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE GETTING
CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH EAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NORMAL AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COOL START.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 292313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOME CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR OR BELOW 5KFT AT PVW AND LBB THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE BKN OR OVC CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CHILDRESS VICINITY
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER COOL CONDITIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
REGION HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...A SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL LIKELY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL BE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AFFECTS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO A MUCH BROADER
WAVE THAN A COMPACT CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A TRANSITION MAINLY INTO
SHOWERS/RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY COOL ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS HANG ON
MONDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND WE SEE
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL START
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND WE SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOP ALOFT. MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE KEEPING IT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE GETTING
CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH EAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NORMAL AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COOL START.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 292048
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CHILDRESS VICINITY
PREVENTING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER COOL CONDITIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE THE
REGION HAS EXPERIENCED STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOST
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION AT BAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING...A SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL LIKELY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL BE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST
AFFECTS THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN A BIT INTO A MUCH BROADER
WAVE THAN A COMPACT CLOSED LOW. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL STILL
BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT THAT DEVELOPS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD KEEP A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH A TRANSITION MAINLY INTO
SHOWERS/RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES PRETTY COOL ON SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS HANG ON
MONDAY MORNING.

COOLER AIRMASS WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND WE SEE
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL START
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND WE SEE NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOP ALOFT. MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ONE KEEPING IT WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY NORTHWEST FLOW THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT POPS ALONE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS CHANGE GETTING
CLOSER TO THIS TIME FRAME.

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO PUSH EAST LATE FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT STRONG STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURN NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM BACK TO NORMAL AS WE
HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK AFTER THE COOL START.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 291708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO KLBB AND KPVW.
MEANWHILE...KCDS WILL REMAIN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE FA. AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RESIDE THERE BUT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE ACTIVELY
ATTEMPTING TO SQUASH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 291708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO KLBB AND KPVW.
MEANWHILE...KCDS WILL REMAIN WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT ALL TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE FA. AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RESIDE THERE BUT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE ACTIVELY
ATTEMPTING TO SQUASH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 291444 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
944 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SURFACE BOUNDARY ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE FA. AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO RESIDE THERE BUT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE ACTIVELY
ATTEMPTING TO SQUASH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 291151
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
651 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR WITH LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 290925
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
425 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
09Z OBS INDICATE DRYLINE HOLDING POSITION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SACREMENTOS.
CI HAS BEGUN SPREADING SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING PARMER COUNTY. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 9Z-12Z...DRIER AIR TO THE WEST
MIXING TO THE SURFACE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY NOON. THETA E AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO SW OK WILL
RESULT IN ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.

DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS IT PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON...COMPRESSIONAL WINDS WILL INCH FRIDAYS HIGHS TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES DESPITE EARLY CLOUD
COVER. OFF THE CAPROCK TO THE EAST WILL SEE MORE SUN AND WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE TX/NM BORDER WITH POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE I20 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL EASE
AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER FOR THE FCST AREA WILL EJECT FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OPENING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A JET STREAK FROM NRN
NEW MEXICO TO THE OZARKS. THE FCST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHILE IN THE MID-LEVELS ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL DEVELOP OVER A VERY COOL AIR MASS /AN AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/. THAT COMBINATION WILL
BRING ABOUT A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF LIFT THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY QUIET AS NW FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROUGH IN THAT NW FLOW COULD BRING SOME
STORMS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NRN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE NWRN
PART OF THE FCST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES LOOK NICE AND COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH PRIMARILY 60S SUNDAY AND 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY. A RECOVERY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COME MID TO LATE WEEK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS EDGES EWD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 290440
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY AT KCDS BUT MAY BRING IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. ALSO...A LINE OF T-STORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL
LIKELY IMPACT ALL THE TERMINALS. THEN DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

UPDATE...
WE FINALLY HAVE A LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER A FAIRLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY RETREATING WESTWARD
AT AN UNEVEN PACE. THERE IS NO LINE OF REFERENCE TO DESCRIBE ITS
CURRENT POSITION. THE BEST DESCRIPTION IS THE DRY SECTOR IS ALL
OF EASTERN NM AS WELL AS A BULGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
BAILEY COUNTY...ALL OF COCHRAN AND YOAKUM COUNTIES...AND ALL BUT
EASTERN LAMB COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WHERE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S
WHILE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE DRYLINE ARE LUCKY IF THEY ARE IN THE
20S. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING LOW IS
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND WILL NOT BE HERE TILL SOME TIME AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY THE LATER. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SPEED OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE I WOULD HAVE TO AGREE WITH THE
MODELS. THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THE FIRST CONVECTION TO
GO...AS WELL AS BE THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST...WILL BE OVER
COCHRAN/LAMB COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE. THIS
BULGE APPEARS TO HAVE CREATED A MESO SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
ROOSEVELT COUNTY, NM SHOULD SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SURFACE BASED
LIFT. THE MAIN STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE LINEAR AS THE DRYLINE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED IN NATURE STARTING JUST
WEST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR AND INCREASE THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
FAVORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST. A MENTION OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPDATED FORECAST. ALDRICH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 290320
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1020 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
WE FINALLY HAVE A LULL IN CONVECTION AFTER A FAIRLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY RETREATING WESTWARD
AT AN UNEVEN PACE. THERE IS NO LINE OF REFERENCE TO DESCRIBE ITS
CURRENT POSITION. THE BEST DESCRIPTION IS THE DRY SECTOR IS ALL
OF EASTERN NM AS WELL AS A BULGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
BAILEY COUNTY...ALL OF COCHRAN AND YOAKUM COUNTIES...AND ALL BUT
EASTERN LAMB COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WHERE
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S
WHILE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE DRYLINE ARE LUCKY IF THEY ARE IN THE
20S. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING LOW IS
STILL WELL TO OUR WEST AND WILL NOT BE HERE TILL SOME TIME AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST LIKELY THE LATER. HI RES MODELS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND THE 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION
MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SPEED OF THE RETREATING DRYLINE I WOULD HAVE TO AGREE WITH THE
MODELS. THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THE FIRST CONVECTION TO
GO...AS WELL AS BE THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST...WILL BE OVER
COCHRAN/LAMB COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A BULGE IN THE DRYLINE. THIS
BULGE APPEARS TO HAVE CREATED A MESO SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
ROOSEVELT COUNTY, NM SHOULD SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SURFACE BASED
LIFT. THE MAIN STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE LINEAR AS THE DRYLINE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WHILE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE CURVED IN NATURE STARTING JUST
WEST OF THE I27 CORRIDOR AND INCREASE THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO.

THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
FAVORING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST. A MENTION OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPDATED FORECAST. ALDRICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 282342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
KCDS WILL BE UNDER THE THREAT OF SEVERE T-STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 01
UTC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 06 UTC. THEN...A LINE OF T-STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 10 OR 11 UTC. LOW CEILINGS...MVFR OR
IFR...MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KCDS...WHILE GUSTY
SW BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP AT KPVW AND KLBB BY MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 282342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
KCDS WILL BE UNDER THE THREAT OF SEVERE T-STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 01
UTC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 06 UTC. THEN...A LINE OF T-STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 10 OR 11 UTC. LOW CEILINGS...MVFR OR
IFR...MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KCDS...WHILE GUSTY
SW BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP AT KPVW AND KLBB BY MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 281942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.


ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 281942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
242 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
RELIEVING THE AREA OF DRY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TOWARDS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. HOWEVER...STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEMSELVES GIVEN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD.


ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND A NEARLY
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THE
NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT COUPLED AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH MAY AGAIN BRING IN SOME CONVECTION FROM
THE WEST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW THIS SHORT WAVE SO
PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE LOW.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE CASCADES AND SIERRA
NEVADA RANGES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE UPPER FLOW LOCALLY TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN US NEXT WEEK BUT BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH AND MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WE WILL GENERALLY BE
UNDER COOL EASTERLY FLOW TO START OFF NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
UNSEASONABLY COOL KEEPING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE STORMS LOW. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM EXITS...WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST FLOW STORMS IN THIS PATTERN.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 281908
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
208 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z-21Z INVOF KLBB/KPVW
AND MOVE NE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD KCDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND WIDE
BERTH SHOULD BE GIVEN AS STRONG DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.UPDATE...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KCDS AROUND 00Z
WITH EXPECTATION OF ISO TO SCT STORMS INITIATING SW OF KCDS AND
EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IF STORMS WILL AFFECT
KCDS ATTM SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
KPVW AND KCDS AFTER 06Z WILL SUPPORT A TEMPO MENTION IN BOTH THOSE
TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 281908
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
208 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z-21Z INVOF KLBB/KPVW
AND MOVE NE. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD KCDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AND WIDE
BERTH SHOULD BE GIVEN AS STRONG DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONTINGENT ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.UPDATE...
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THETA-E AXIS
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE US-87 I-27 CORRIDOR THENCE CURVING BACK
A BIT NORTHWEST TOWARD DIMMITT. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE AXIS AND THIS IS AN AREA WHICH IS HINTED AT
FOR INITIATION BY MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NWP SOLUTIONS.
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE THETA-E RIDGE HAS BECOME A BIT
MORE N/S ORIENTED AND WHILE THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT NEARLY AS NORMAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...IT SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE CONVECTION. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL
HELICITY AND ENHANCE RISK OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. 0-1KM SHEAR IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DOES RAMP UP SHARPLY
FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TONIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWFA ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE. THREAT OF
BASEBALLS/70MPH/TORNADOES CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. OVERALL A
GUARDED VIGILANCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS WARRANTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KCDS AROUND 00Z
WITH EXPECTATION OF ISO TO SCT STORMS INITIATING SW OF KCDS AND
EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IF STORMS WILL AFFECT
KCDS ATTM SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
KPVW AND KCDS AFTER 06Z WILL SUPPORT A TEMPO MENTION IN BOTH THOSE
TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 281116
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KCDS AROUND 00Z
WITH EXPECTATION OF ISO TO SCT STORMS INITIATING SW OF KCDS AND
EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IF STORMS WILL AFFECT
KCDS ATTM SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
KPVW AND KCDS AFTER 06Z WILL SUPPORT A TEMPO MENTION IN BOTH THOSE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 281116
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TS AT KCDS AROUND 00Z
WITH EXPECTATION OF ISO TO SCT STORMS INITIATING SW OF KCDS AND
EAST OF KLBB AND KPVW. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IF STORMS WILL AFFECT
KCDS ATTM SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
KPVW AND KCDS AFTER 06Z WILL SUPPORT A TEMPO MENTION IN BOTH THOSE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO SRN
CALIFORNIA. THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY PRETTY QUICKLY THIS MORNING
AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE 4-CORNERS BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SFC WILL SEE THE DRYLINE SHIFT EWD TO OR JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT 21Z. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
POISED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA...BUT RICHER
MOISTURE IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF SAN ANTONIO. SOME OF THAT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO OFFSET SOME MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING.
00Z WRF-NAM THE MOST EXTREME WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE AND THUS WITH CAPE VALUES /EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG AT 00Z/ WHILE
OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MEASURED AND ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AT THAT
SAME TIME. ATTM TEND TO PREFER THE LATTER VALUES WHICH STILL
CERTAINLY LEADS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE
ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT IS PROGGED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
AROUND 21Z. FORCING AT THAT TIME OF THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
SO 20-30 PCT POPS SHOULD HANDLE PERIOD OF INITIATION...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOVING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MATURES. ALSO
EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE DRYLINE PUSH QUICKLY WWD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POISED TO BE WORKED ON BY GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF THE 4-CORNERS UPPER LOW THAT WILL STILL BE HEADED EWD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE A SECOND ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY INITIATING WEST OF I-27 AFTER 06Z. FOCUS
OF LIFT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...BUT SHOULD
ALSO SEE SOME ATTEMPTS TO BUILD SWD INTO LOW LEVEL JET. THIS
SECOND ROUND ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH HEALTHY
AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED CAPE PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WHAT LINGERING STORMS REMAIN BY 12Z FRIDAY SHOULD MAKE AMPLE
STRIDES NEWD AND OUT OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A MID-
LEVEL JET STREAK AND PRONOUNCED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE. AS THE UPPER
LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO...THE AXIS OF A 70+ KNOT 500
MB JET CORE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD. CLOUD DEBRIS FROM A.M. PRECIP SHOULD EASILY
BE SCOURED OUT UNDER DRY SLOTTING AND ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH LOOKS TO RESIDE IN OUR
NERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY. THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS DOES
LOOK RATHER SMALL IN THIS AREA PARTICULARLY WITH THE DRYLINE
SPEEDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WINDOW IS
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW POPS BEFORE THE DRYLINE DEPARTS FOR
GOOD BEFORE 00Z. ATTM...THE SEVERE STORM THREAT IN THE SERN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS IS PRETTY NARROW IN TIME AND
SPACE GIVEN UTTERLY BONKERS BUNKERS STORM MOTIONS OF 50 KNOTS AND
A SPEEDY DRYLINE. THIS MOTION WOULD DISPLACE MOST STORM EMBRYOS
OUT OF OUR CWA IN RAPID FASHION BEFORE CELLS CAN FULLY MATURE
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM. ON A RELATED NOTE...MOS AND SUPERBLEND WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TOO CONSERVATIVE FOR THIS POST-DRYLINE PATTERN UNDER A
STRONG JET MAXIMUM...SO HAVE NUDGED THESE VALUES UP INTO THE 25-30
MPH TERRITORY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

ASIDE FROM SOME RESIDUAL COLD POCKET AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
IN NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE...A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRI NIGHT FROM THE NW ALL THE WHILE THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
STACKED AND NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR GOODLAND KANSAS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD SLOW ON SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING WELL TO OUR S-W ALL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW BY SUNDAY.
THIS BROAD POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN UNDER SLOW RE-MOISTENING
ALOFT IN SW FLOW TENDS TO FAVOR PRECIP MOSTLY IN NM THIS WEEKEND...
BUT WE HAVE RETAINED SOME LOW CHANCE MENTION IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES
FOR ANY ERRANT HIGH PLAINS DRIFTERS. MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
PROGGED TO PEAK SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEW UPPER LOW
MIGRATES EAST...ALTHOUGH THE CHARACTER OF THIS LOW IS ONE OF A
WEAKENING THEME BY THIS POINT WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN OVER THE
QUALITY OF SATURATED DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES. AT THE VERY LEAST...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY SAT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THEREAFTER COULD MAKE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO MAY
WITH MONDAY SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE PROVIDED SHOWERS PAN OUT AS
ADVERTISED. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW THEN UNFOLDS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE RIDGE SPANNING THE FULL EXTENT OF
THE CANADIAN AND U.S. ROCKIES. PATTERN WISE...THESE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGES TEND TO BE A BIT MORE RESILIENT THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH
COULD PROLONG TUESDAY/S DRYING ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
REGIONAL SEVERE WX PATTERN LOOKS TO UNFOLD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/93/07





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