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000
FXUS64 KLUB 301136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.

HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  34  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         72  38  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  39  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     73  37  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       74  40  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  40  63  38  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  41  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  43  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  42  63  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     80  44  65  37  65 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 300935
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.

HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIRMASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  34  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         72  38  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  39  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     73  37  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       74  40  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  40  63  38  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  41  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  43  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  42  63  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     80  44  65  37  65 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 300437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY STILL
BRING THE RISK OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KLBB THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LESS THAN DESIRED.
IF THE CIGS/BR CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO KLBB...FLIGHT CATEGORIES
COULD DROP AS LOW AS MVFR TO LIFR. DECIDED TO PLAY THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD...MAINTAINING A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
12-16Z TIME-FRAME...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. IT STILL APPEARS THE
RICHEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KCDS SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
HERE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY WITH FROPA EXPECTED
AROUND MIDDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
RISEN TO RIGHT ROUND SEASONAL NORMS...NAMELY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL WASH OUT
TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
COMBINATION OF RADIATION AND ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE
MOISTURE GOES AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HEADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE
AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BY MIDDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED NUDGING
LOWS TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES SAT MORNING WHILE
EDGING POPS UPWARD TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOLLOWING THURSDAY/S BACKDOOR FRONT...COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
OVERWHELM THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING SLOWLY EAST BY FRI
NIGHT. THIS EARLY DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST
THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS EAST INTO OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEEING THEIR FIRST FREEZE /ALBEIT LIGHT/. GRADUAL INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ATOP A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW COULD
KEEP ANY FREEZE VERY SPOTTY...BUT WE THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ADD A
LIGHT FREEZE MENTION TO THE HWO.

RETURN FLOW ONLY AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER AS HEIGHT FALLS SPUR LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST COMPLETE WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND. ALREADY BY SUN EVENING THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH COULD GARNER SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FOR LIGHT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. DETAILS
THEREAFTER ARE LESS CERTAIN AS THE CORE MODELS /ECMWF AND GFS/
MAINTAIN A WEALTH OF SPREAD WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER HAS ENJOYED BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AS OF LATE...BUT THIS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DISMISS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE MODELS
IS BEST ADVISED BY THE WPC EXTENDED DESK WHICH TENDS TO FIT WELL
WITH THE GEFS MEAN FOR NOW. THIS FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS LATER IN
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH AND SETS UP A SW-NE
RIBBON LIFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO BOOT. FORCING MAY VERY WELL BE
AS GOOD AS THE ECM SUGGESTS WITH THE GFS EVEN PROGGING A 110 KNOT
JET MAX ALOFT. PROVIDED THE APPROACHING TROUGH LAGS ENOUGH ENERGY
IN ITS BASE OVER THE DESERT SW BY MONDAY...THIS ANAFRONTAL FLOW
REGIME LOOKS GOOD FOR A SOAKING RAIN EVENT MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK
AS PWATS SHOULD CURTAIL MARKEDLY FARTHER WEST. DID BOOST POPS TO
50 PERCENT FOR LATE MONDAY IN OUR SERN ZONES AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE DEPTH OF SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING...THEY ALL AGREE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE 500MB
MEAN TROUGH BY TUE/WED THAN BEFORE. THIS ARGUES IN FAVOR OF STEADY
DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND A RETURN TO COOL SURFACE RIDGING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  69  35  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  70  38  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  71  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  71  37  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  72  40  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  74  42  65  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    47  74  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     46  75  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  75  43  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  76  44  67  36 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 292340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ENOUGH SHALLOW
MOISTURE MAY ADVECT INTO KLBB TO BRING THE RISK OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG BY AROUND 12Z. CONFIDENCE IN FOG/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT
KLBB IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...BUT IF IT OCCURS MVFR TO IFR /PERHAPS
EVEN LIFR/ CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
OCCURRENCE...WE HAVE HEDGED WITH A MVFR TEMPO GROUND FROM 12Z TO
16Z. THE BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KCDS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING THERE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH FROPA AROUND MIDDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. MODESTLY
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE
FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
RISEN TO RIGHT ROUND SEASONAL NORMS...NAMELY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL WASH OUT
TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
COMBINATION OF RADIATION AND ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE
MOISTURE GOES AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HEADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE
AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BY MIDDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED NUDGING
LOWS TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES SAT MORNING WHILE
EDGING POPS UPWARD TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOLLOWING THURSDAY/S BACKDOOR FRONT...COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
OVERWHELM THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING SLOWLY EAST BY FRI
NIGHT. THIS EARLY DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST
THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS EAST INTO OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEEING THEIR FIRST FREEZE /ALBEIT LIGHT/. GRADUAL INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ATOP A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW COULD
KEEP ANY FREEZE VERY SPOTTY...BUT WE THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ADD A
LIGHT FREEZE MENTION TO THE HWO.

RETURN FLOW ONLY AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER AS HEIGHT FALLS SPUR LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST COMPLETE WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND. ALREADY BY SUN EVENING THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH COULD GARNER SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FOR LIGHT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. DETAILS
THEREAFTER ARE LESS CERTAIN AS THE CORE MODELS /ECMWF AND GFS/
MAINTAIN A WEALTH OF SPREAD WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER HAS ENJOYED BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AS OF LATE...BUT THIS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DISMISS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE MODELS
IS BEST ADVISED BY THE WPC EXTENDED DESK WHICH TENDS TO FIT WELL
WITH THE GEFS MEAN FOR NOW. THIS FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS LATER IN
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH AND SETS UP A SW-NE
RIBBON LIFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO BOOT. FORCING MAY VERY WELL BE
AS GOOD AS THE ECM SUGGESTS WITH THE GFS EVEN PROGGING A 110 KNOT
JET MAX ALOFT. PROVIDED THE APPROACHING TROUGH LAGS ENOUGH ENERGY
IN ITS BASE OVER THE DESERT SW BY MONDAY...THIS ANAFRONTAL FLOW
REGIME LOOKS GOOD FOR A SOAKING RAIN EVENT MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK
AS PWATS SHOULD CURTAIL MARKEDLY FARTHER WEST. DID BOOST POPS TO
50 PERCENT FOR LATE MONDAY IN OUR SERN ZONES AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE DEPTH OF SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING...THEY ALL AGREE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE 500MB
MEAN TROUGH BY TUE/WED THAN BEFORE. THIS ARGUES IN FAVOR OF STEADY
DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND A RETURN TO COOL SURFACE RIDGING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  69  35  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  70  38  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  71  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  71  37  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  72  40  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  74  42  65  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    47  74  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     46  75  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  75  43  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  76  44  67  36 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 292040
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
RISEN TO RIGHT ROUND SEASONAL NORMS...NAMELY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL WASH OUT
TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
COMBINATION OF RADIATION AND ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE
MOISTURE GOES AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HEADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE
AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BY MIDDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED NUDGING
LOWS TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES SAT MORNING WHILE
EDGING POPS UPWARD TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOLLOWING THURSDAY/S BACKDOOR FRONT...COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
OVERWHELM THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING SLOWLY EAST BY FRI
NIGHT. THIS EARLY DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST
THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS EAST INTO OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEEING THEIR FIRST FREEZE /ALBEIT LIGHT/. GRADUAL INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ATOP A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW COULD
KEEP ANY FREEZE VERY SPOTTY...BUT WE THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ADD A
LIGHT FREEZE MENTION TO THE HWO.

RETURN FLOW ONLY AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER AS HEIGHT FALLS SPUR LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST COMPLETE WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND. ALREADY BY SUN EVENING THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH COULD GARNER SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FOR LIGHT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. DETAILS
THEREAFTER ARE LESS CERTAIN AS THE CORE MODELS /ECMWF AND GFS/
MAINTAIN A WEALTH OF SPREAD WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER HAS ENJOYED BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AS OF LATE...BUT THIS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DISMISS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE MODELS
IS BEST ADVISED BY THE WPC EXTENDED DESK WHICH TENDS TO FIT WELL
WITH THE GEFS MEAN FOR NOW. THIS FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS LATER IN
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH AND SETS UP A SW-NE
RIBBON LIFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO BOOT. FORCING MAY VERY WELL BE
AS GOOD AS THE ECM SUGGESTS WITH THE GFS EVEN PROGGING A 110 KNOT
JET MAX ALOFT. PROVIDED THE APPROACHING TROUGH LAGS ENOUGH ENERGY
IN ITS BASE OVER THE DESERT SW BY MONDAY...THIS ANAFRONTAL FLOW
REGIME LOOKS GOOD FOR A SOAKING RAIN EVENT MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK
AS PWATS SHOULD CURTAIL MARKEDLY FARTHER WEST. DID BOOST POPS TO
50 PERCENT FOR LATE MONDAY IN OUR SERN ZONES AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE DEPTH OF SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING...THEY ALL AGREE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE 500MB
MEAN TROUGH BY TUE/WED THAN BEFORE. THIS ARGUES IN FAVOR OF STEADY
DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND A RETURN TO COOL SURFACE RIDGING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  69  35  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  70  38  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  71  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  71  37  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  72  40  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  74  42  65  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    47  74  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     46  75  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  75  43  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  76  44  67  36 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93







000
FXUS64 KLUB 291735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT COULD IMPACT KLBB. WE HAVE HINTED AT
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS...CEILING REDUCTIONS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH WILL
PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NW...BUT WIND GUSTS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 12 TO 18 KT RANGE WITH THE FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR AND DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AND MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW ON TAP TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. A MOISTURE-STARVED WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN
IN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC CURVED ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN AS WELL ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE
WARMING COULD LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS AS WELL ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE WEAK PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE A WARMER DAY CLOSE TO
NORMAL IS ON THE WAY. SHOULD ELEVATE TO VERY NICE BY MOST STANDARDS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW TRENDING
MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS UPPER RIDGE BULGES JUST TO OUR WEST. MINIMAL
SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR A SEASONAL COOL NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS
BEGINNING POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS
TO ADDRESS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
FIRST...DURING THE DAY TOMORROW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND WILL INTERACT WITH SOME MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT DOES. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WOULDNT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS NEXT EVENT IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE TENUOUS HANDLE THAT MODELS HAVE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN.  HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE LATCHING ONTO THE IDEA
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT DIVIDE
LATE THIS WEEKEND...SENDING A PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND DIGGING A CLOSED LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTH WEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY EJECTING THIS LOW
EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE ALL
SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OF SOME
VARIETY WILL BECOME DRAWN INTO THE WIND FIELD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...BRINGING VERY UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE INTO TEXAS BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.  TO TOP IT ALL OFF...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHERE IT
INTERACTS WITH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
QPF TOTALS.  AT THIS POINT...WHILE MODELS HAVE VERY MUCH STRUGGLED
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS...RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOLIDLY INTO CHC PROBABILITIES FOR THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  FARTHER WEST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT OPTED TO BRING SCHC POPS WESTWARD
DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE SLOWER AND MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW IN LATEST GUIDANCE.  BY LATE TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FORCED SOUTHWARDS BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...BUT AT 7 DAYS OUT WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT LITTLE CAN BE
SAID OTHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  69  38  61  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  70  41  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  70  43  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  71  44  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  72  45  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  77  49  65  42 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    47  76  48  64  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  76  46  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          47  75  47  65  41 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  81  48  67  41 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 291112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AND DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AND MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW ON TAP TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. A MOISTURE-STARVED WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN
IN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC CURVED ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN AS WELL ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE
WARMING COULD LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS AS WELL ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE WEAK PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE A WARMER DAY CLOSE TO
NORMAL IS ON THE WAY. SHOULD ELEVATE TO VERY NICE BY MOST STANDARDS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW TRENDING
MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS UPPER RIDGE BULGES JUST TO OUR WEST. MINIMAL
SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR A SEASONAL COOL NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS
BEGINNING POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS
TO ADDRESS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
FIRST...DURING THE DAY TOMORROW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND WILL INTERACT WITH SOME MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT DOES. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WOULDNT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS NEXT EVENT IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE TENUOUS HANDLE THAT MODELS HAVE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN.  HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE LATCHING ONTO THE IDEA
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT DIVIDE
LATE THIS WEEKEND...SENDING A PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND DIGGING A CLOSED LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTH WEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY EJECTING THIS LOW
EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE ALL
SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OF SOME
VARIETY WILL BECOME DRAWN INTO THE WIND FIELD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...BRINGING VERY UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE INTO TEXAS BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.  TO TOP IT ALL OFF...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHERE IT
INTERACTS WITH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
QPF TOTALS.  AT THIS POINT...WHILE MODELS HAVE VERY MUCH STRUGGLED
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS...RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOLIDLY INTO CHC PROBABILITIES FOR THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  FARTHER WEST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT OPTED TO BRING SCHC POPS WESTWARD
DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE SLOWER AND MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW IN LATEST GUIDANCE.  BY LATE TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FORCED SOUTHWARDS BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...BUT AT 7 DAYS OUT WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT LITTLE CAN BE
SAID OTHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  40  69  38  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         70  42  70  41  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     70  44  70  43  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     71  44  71  44  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  48  72  45  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   71  47  77  49  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  47  76  48  64 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  47  76  46  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          72  47  75  47  65 /   0   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  49  81  48  67 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 290930
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
430 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
DRY AND MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW ON TAP TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. A MOISTURE-STARVED WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN
IN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC CURVED ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN AS WELL ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE
WARMING COULD LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS AS WELL ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE WEAK PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE A WARMER DAY CLOSE TO
NORMAL IS ON THE WAY. SHOULD ELEVATE TO VERY NICE BY MOST STANDARDS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW TRENDING
MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS UPPER RIDGE BULGES JUST TO OUR WEST. MINIMAL
SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR A SEASONAL COOL NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS
BEGINNING POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS
TO ADDRESS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
FIRST...DURING THE DAY TOMORROW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND WILL INTERACT WITH SOME MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT DOES. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WOULDNT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS NEXT EVENT IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE TENUOUS HANDLE THAT MODELS HAVE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN.  HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE LATCHING ONTO THE IDEA
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT DIVIDE
LATE THIS WEEKEND...SENDING A PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND DIGGING A CLOSED LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTH WEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY EJECTING THIS LOW
EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE ALL
SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OF SOME
VARIETY WILL BECOME DRAWN INTO THE WIND FIELD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...BRINGING VERY UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE INTO TEXAS BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.  TO TOP IT ALL OFF...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHERE IT
INTERACTS WITH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
QPF TOTALS.  AT THIS POINT...WHILE MODELS HAVE VERY MUCH STRUGGLED
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS...RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOLIDLY INTO CHC PROBABILITIES FOR THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  FARTHER WEST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT OPTED TO BRING SCHC POPS WESTWARD
DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE SLOWER AND MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW IN LATEST GUIDANCE.  BY LATE TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FORCED SOUTHWARDS BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...BUT AT 7 DAYS OUT WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT LITTLE CAN BE
SAID OTHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  40  69  38  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         70  42  70  41  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     70  44  70  43  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     71  44  71  44  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  47  72  45  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   71  47  77  49  65 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    71  47  76  48  64 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  47  76  46  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          72  47  75  47  65 /   0   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  49  81  48  67 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 290411
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1111 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF YSTDY/S COLD FRONT. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR 30F IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40F IN THE SOUTH...SO THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS LOOKS PRETTY
LOW. STILL...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME OF
THE LOCAL DRAINAGES ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CURRENT CIRRUS
FIELD SHOULD SHOULD PASS EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGER FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW COMPELTE WITH ONE MORE DRY COLD FRONT BY
LATE THURSDAY WILL BUCKLE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FORESEEN DURING THIS TIME...MANY LOCALES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD EASILY SURPASS THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE
DATES BY A WEEK IF NOT EVEN LONGER.

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REALM CONCERNS PRECIP
CHANCES...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY WITH A SECOND AND MORE PRONOUNCED
OPPORTUNITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FROPA LATE THURSDAY...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STALLING FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS. DRY SURFACE
RIDGING HOWEVER LOOKS QUITE STOUT ACROSS THE CWA ALL DRY FRI WITH
ONLY SOME THICKER CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TX-NM STATE LINE...
SO PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO BELOW MENTION AREA WIDE.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING OVERHEAD DURING THIS
TIME FURTHER LIMITING BACKGROUND ASCENT.

BREEZY RETURN FLOW ENSUES THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SPUR LEE TROUGHING ACROSS NERN NM AND ERN
CO. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RAMP UP BY SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOW CLOUDS FOR SUN MORNING...BUT THIS MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SHALLOW UNTIL PEAKING BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
DEEP SWLY FLOW COULD SHUNT MUCH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING ELSEWHERE. LOW RESOLUTION RUNS OF THE ECMWF SINCE LAST
EVENING HAVE ABANDONED THE ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW IN THE DESERT SW
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN FAVOR OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH VERY MUCH AKIN
TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS TRENDED
DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH DECENT RAIN
CHANCES /FOR DAY 7 STANDARDS/ REMAINING OFF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  70  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         37  69  44  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     38  70  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  70  48  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       40  70  48  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   40  71  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    40  71  50  74  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     41  74  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  72  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  74  50  81  52 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 290411
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1111 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF YSTDY/S COLD FRONT. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR 30F IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40F IN THE SOUTH...SO THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS LOOKS PRETTY
LOW. STILL...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME OF
THE LOCAL DRAINAGES ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CURRENT CIRRUS
FIELD SHOULD SHOULD PASS EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGER FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW COMPELTE WITH ONE MORE DRY COLD FRONT BY
LATE THURSDAY WILL BUCKLE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FORESEEN DURING THIS TIME...MANY LOCALES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD EASILY SURPASS THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE
DATES BY A WEEK IF NOT EVEN LONGER.

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REALM CONCERNS PRECIP
CHANCES...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY WITH A SECOND AND MORE PRONOUNCED
OPPORTUNITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FROPA LATE THURSDAY...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STALLING FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS. DRY SURFACE
RIDGING HOWEVER LOOKS QUITE STOUT ACROSS THE CWA ALL DRY FRI WITH
ONLY SOME THICKER CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TX-NM STATE LINE...
SO PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO BELOW MENTION AREA WIDE.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING OVERHEAD DURING THIS
TIME FURTHER LIMITING BACKGROUND ASCENT.

BREEZY RETURN FLOW ENSUES THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SPUR LEE TROUGHING ACROSS NERN NM AND ERN
CO. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RAMP UP BY SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOW CLOUDS FOR SUN MORNING...BUT THIS MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SHALLOW UNTIL PEAKING BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
DEEP SWLY FLOW COULD SHUNT MUCH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING ELSEWHERE. LOW RESOLUTION RUNS OF THE ECMWF SINCE LAST
EVENING HAVE ABANDONED THE ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW IN THE DESERT SW
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN FAVOR OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH VERY MUCH AKIN
TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS TRENDED
DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH DECENT RAIN
CHANCES /FOR DAY 7 STANDARDS/ REMAINING OFF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  70  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         37  69  44  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     38  70  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  70  48  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       40  70  48  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   40  71  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    40  71  50  74  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     41  74  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  72  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  74  50  81  52 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 282320
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF YSTDY/S COLD FRONT. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR 30F IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40F IN THE SOUTH...SO THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS LOOKS PRETTY
LOW. STILL...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME OF
THE LOCAL DRAINAGES ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CURRENT CIRRUS
FIELD SHOULD SHOULD PASS EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGER FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW COMPELTE WITH ONE MORE DRY COLD FRONT BY
LATE THURSDAY WILL BUCKLE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FORESEEN DURING THIS TIME...MANY LOCALES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD EASILY SURPASS THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE
DATES BY A WEEK IF NOT EVEN LONGER.

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REALM CONCERNS PRECIP
CHANCES...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY WITH A SECOND AND MORE PRONOUNCED
OPPORTUNITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FROPA LATE THURSDAY...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STALLING FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS. DRY SURFACE
RIDGING HOWEVER LOOKS QUITE STOUT ACROSS THE CWA ALL DRY FRI WITH
ONLY SOME THICKER CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TX-NM STATE LINE...
SO PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO BELOW MENTION AREA WIDE.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING OVERHEAD DURING THIS
TIME FURTHER LIMITING BACKGROUND ASCENT.

BREEZY RETURN FLOW ENSUES THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SPUR LEE TROUGHING ACROSS NERN NM AND ERN
CO. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RAMP UP BY SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOW CLOUDS FOR SUN MORNING...BUT THIS MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SHALLOW UNTIL PEAKING BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
DEEP SWLY FLOW COULD SHUNT MUCH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING ELSEWHERE. LOW RESOLUTION RUNS OF THE ECMWF SINCE LAST
EVENING HAVE ABANDONED THE ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW IN THE DESERT SW
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN FAVOR OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH VERY MUCH AKIN
TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS TRENDED
DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH DECENT RAIN
CHANCES /FOR DAY 7 STANDARDS/ REMAINING OFF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  70  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         37  69  44  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     38  70  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  70  48  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       40  70  48  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   40  71  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    40  71  50  74  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     41  74  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  72  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  74  50  81  52 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 282046
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF YSTDY/S COLD FRONT. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR 30F IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40F IN THE SOUTH...SO THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS LOOKS PRETTY
LOW. STILL...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME OF
THE LOCAL DRAINAGES ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CURRENT CIRRUS
FIELD SHOULD SHOULD PASS EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGER FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW COMPELTE WITH ONE MORE DRY COLD FRONT BY
LATE THURSDAY WILL BUCKLE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FORESEEN DURING THIS TIME...MANY LOCALES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD EASILY SURPASS THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE
DATES BY A WEEK IF NOT EVEN LONGER.

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REALM CONCERNS PRECIP
CHANCES...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY WITH A SECOND AND MORE PRONOUNCED
OPPORTUNITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FROPA LATE THURSDAY...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STALLING FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS. DRY SURFACE
RIDGING HOWEVER LOOKS QUITE STOUT ACROSS THE CWA ALL DRY FRI WITH
ONLY SOME THICKER CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TX-NM STATE LINE...
SO PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO BELOW MENTION AREA WIDE.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING OVERHEAD DURING THIS
TIME FURTHER LIMITING BACKGROUND ASCENT.

BREEZY RETURN FLOW ENSUES THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SPUR LEE TROUGHING ACROSS NERN NM AND ERN
CO. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RAMP UP BY SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOW CLOUDS FOR SUN MORNING...BUT THIS MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SHALLOW UNTIL PEAKING BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
DEEP SWLY FLOW COULD SHUNT MUCH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING ELSEWHERE. LOW RESOLUTION RUNS OF THE ECMWF SINCE LAST
EVENING HAVE ABANDONED THE ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW IN THE DESERT SW
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN FAVOR OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH VERY MUCH AKIN
TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS TRENDED
DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH DECENT RAIN
CHANCES /FOR DAY 7 STANDARDS/ REMAINING OFF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  70  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         37  69  44  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     38  70  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  70  48  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       40  70  48  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   40  71  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    40  71  50  74  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     41  74  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  72  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  74  50  81  52 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93







000
FXUS64 KLUB 281712
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE
VFR THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AT
KLBB. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT...DECREASING TO
BELOW 10 KT LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ENTIRE CWFA WITH LITTLE EFFORT.  WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ON THE ANEMIC SIDE AS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
EXPECTED /BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO/ BUT IMPORTANT THING IS THAT IT WILL
FEEL JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE LIKE AUTUMN TODAY THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE THINGS COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION /ALOFT FROM THE NW AND FROM THE NE AT THE
SFC./  GIVEN THE FAST INITIATION OF RETURN FLOW OUT WEST...THIS
SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FREEZING IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THAT SAID...WE COULD SEE
TEMPS FALL A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE UP TOWARD CHILDRESS WHERE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
ACCORDINGLY.

LONG TERM...
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND
SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND ALSO SEND YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST TEXAS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH READINGS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MODEST
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND
IT WOULDNT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS A RESULT. WILL
LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION FOR NOW...AS THIS POSSIBILITY
SEEMS SOMEWHAT REMOTE AT THIS POINT GIVEN A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND...WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS.  AT THIS POINT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALITIES CAN
BE DRAWN.  FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO
SEPARATE ENTITIES...SENDING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND LEAVING BEHIND A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS SECOND TROUGH THAT MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST WITH...AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REMAIN SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS.  STILL...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIGGING TROUGH TO
OUR WEST SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION MENTION IS WARRANTED BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  36  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         65  39  71  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  41  71  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  40  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       66  42  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  43  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  41  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     70  44  75  46  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          69  43  73  49  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  47  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLUB 281117
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ENTIRE CWFA WITH LITTLE EFFORT.  WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ON THE ANEMIC SIDE AS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
EXPECTED /BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO/ BUT IMPORTANT THING IS THAT IT WILL
FEEL JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE LIKE AUTUMN TODAY THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE THINGS COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION /ALOFT FROM THE NW AND FROM THE NE AT THE
SFC./  GIVEN THE FAST INITIATION OF RETURN FLOW OUT WEST...THIS
SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FREEZING IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THAT SAID...WE COULD SEE
TEMPS FALL A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE UP TOWARD CHILDRESS WHERE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
ACCORDINGLY.

LONG TERM...
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND
SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND ALSO SEND YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST TEXAS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH READINGS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MODEST
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND
IT WOULDNT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS A RESULT. WILL
LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION FOR NOW...AS THIS POSSIBILITY
SEEMS SOMEWHAT REMOTE AT THIS POINT GIVEN A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND...WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS.  AT THIS POINT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALITIES CAN
BE DRAWN.  FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO
SEPARATE ENTITIES...SENDING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND LEAVING BEHIND A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS SECOND TROUGH THAT MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST WITH...AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REMAIN SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS.  STILL...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIGGING TROUGH TO
OUR WEST SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION MENTION IS WARRANTED BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  36  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         65  39  71  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  41  71  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  40  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       66  42  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  43  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  41  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     70  44  75  46  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          69  43  73  49  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  47  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 280933
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
433 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ENTIRE CWFA WITH LITTLE EFFORT.  WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ON THE ANEMIC SIDE AS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
EXPECTED /BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO/ BUT IMPORTANT THING IS THAT IT WILL
FEEL JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE LIKE AUTUMN TODAY THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE THINGS COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION /ALOFT FROM THE NW AND FROM THE NE AT THE
SFC./  GIVEN THE FAST INITIATION OF RETURN FLOW OUT WEST...THIS
SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FREEZING IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THAT SAID...WE COULD SEE
TEMPS FALL A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE UP TOWARD CHILDRESS WHERE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND
SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND ALSO SEND YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST TEXAS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH READINGS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MODEST
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND
IT WOULDNT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS A RESULT. WILL
LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION FOR NOW...AS THIS POSSIBILITY
SEEMS SOMEWHAT REMOTE AT THIS POINT GIVEN A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND...WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS.  AT THIS POINT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALITIES CAN
BE DRAWN.  FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO
SEPARATE ENTITIES...SENDING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND LEAVING BEHIND A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS SECOND TROUGH THAT MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST WITH...AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REMAIN SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS.  STILL...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIGGING TROUGH TO
OUR WEST SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION MENTION IS WARRANTED BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  36  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         65  39  71  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  41  71  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  40  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       66  42  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  43  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  41  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     70  44  75  46  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          69  43  73  49  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  47  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 280508 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT RAMPED UP AS MUCH
AND HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCDS AND WILL ARRIVE AT KLBB
SHORTLY. THIS WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH AND COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. WIND SPEEDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WAS POISED JUST
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...PICKING UP STEAM AFTER SUNSET. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE VEERED NICELY AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD BE A BIT
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE RISES
INCREASE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF TOWARD
SUNRISE...WILL RUN ON COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
COOL AND QUIET DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
AND VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST LOOK FINE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD
FRONT. LOWS WED MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...UPPER
30S/LOW 40S...BUT WILL ALSO BE ON THE UPWARD TREND. HIGHS WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY BUT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER FRONT...THIS ONE WEAKER THEN ITS PREDECESSOR...WILL COOL
TEMPS SLIGHTLY GOING INTO FRI BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE EXTREMELY
NOTICEABLE. A RIDGE WILL SET IN BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. RETURN FLOW WILL HELP AID IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS WHILE ALSO HELPING TO FUNNEL IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...HOWEVER SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN. THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS WELL
TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE CA/US BOUNDARY WHILE A LONG WAVE TROF
POSITIONS ITSELF TO OUR WEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROF ON WHEN IT WILL BEGIN ITS FULL EASTWARD MOVEMENT
AND HAVE ALSO TURNED THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY. DURING
THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NM. WHILE A FRONT IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL IN QUESTION.
THE ECMWF...AS IT USUALLY IS...IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUES. PWAT VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.2 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR
WEST TX. FOR NOW I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT
THE END OF NEXT MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT
AS WELL AS THE PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WHAT WOULD HINDER PRECIP CHANCES ATM IS IF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF LATE MONDAY RUSHES ACROSS KS PUSHING THE FRONT IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  63  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         39  64  39  69  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  65  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  65  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  66  42  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  66  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  66  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  71  44  73  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          44  69  42  70  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  72  45  73  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLUB 272336 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCDS AND WILL ARRIVE AT KLBB
SHORTLY. THIS WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH AND COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. WIND SPEEDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WAS POISED JUST
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...PICKING UP STEAM AFTER SUNSET. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE VEERED NICELY AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD BE A BIT
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE RISES
INCREASE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF TOWARD
SUNRISE...WILL RUN ON COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
COOL AND QUIET DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
AND VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST LOOK FINE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD
FRONT. LOWS WED MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...UPPER
30S/LOW 40S...BUT WILL ALSO BE ON THE UPWARD TREND. HIGHS WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY BUT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER FRONT...THIS ONE WEAKER THEN ITS PREDECESSOR...WILL COOL
TEMPS SLIGHTLY GOING INTO FRI BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE EXTREMELY
NOTICEABLE. A RIDGE WILL SET IN BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. RETURN FLOW WILL HELP AID IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS WHILE ALSO HELPING TO FUNNEL IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...HOWEVER SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN. THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS WELL
TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE CA/US BOUNDARY WHILE A LONG WAVE TROF
POSITIONS ITSELF TO OUR WEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROF ON WHEN IT WILL BEGIN ITS FULL EASTWARD MOVEMENT
AND HAVE ALSO TURNED THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY. DURING
THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NM. WHILE A FRONT IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL IN QUESTION.
THE ECMWF...AS IT USUALLY IS...IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUES. PWAT VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.2 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR
WEST TX. FOR NOW I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT
THE END OF NEXT MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT
AS WELL AS THE PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WHAT WOULD HINDER PRECIP CHANCES ATM IS IF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF LATE MONDAY RUSHES ACROSS KS PUSHING THE FRONT IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  63  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         39  64  39  69  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  65  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  65  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  66  42  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  66  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  66  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  71  44  73  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          44  69  42  70  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  72  45  73  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLUB 271953
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WAS POISED JUST
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...PICKING UP STEAM AFTER SUNSET. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE VEERED NICELY AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD BE A BIT
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE RISES
INCREASE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF TOWARD
SUNRISE...WILL RUN ON COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
COOL AND QUIET DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
AND VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST LOOK FINE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD
FRONT. LOWS WED MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...UPPER
30S/LOW 40S...BUT WILL ALSO BE ON THE UPWARD TREND. HIGHS WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY BUT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER FRONT...THIS ONE WEAKER THEN ITS PREDECESSOR...WILL COOL
TEMPS SLIGHTLY GOING INTO FRI BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE EXTREMELY
NOTICEABLE. A RIDGE WILL SET IN BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. RETURN FLOW WILL HELP AID IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS WHILE ALSO HELPING TO FUNNEL IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...HOWEVER SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN. THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS WELL
TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE CA/US BOUNDARY WHILE A LONG WAVE TROF
POSITIONS ITSELF TO OUR WEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROF ON WHEN IT WILL BEGIN ITS FULL EASTWARD MOVEMENT
AND HAVE ALSO TURNED THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY. DURING
THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NM. WHILE A FRONT IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL IN QUESTION.
THE ECMWF...AS IT USUALLY IS...IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUES. PWAT VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.2 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR
WEST TX. FOR NOW I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT
THE END OF NEXT MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT
AS WELL AS THE PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WHAT WOULD HINDER PRECIP CHANCES ATM IS IF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF LATE MONDAY RUSHES ACROSS KS PUSHING THE FRONT IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  63  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         39  64  39  69  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  65  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  65  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  66  42  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  66  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  66  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  71  44  73  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          44  69  42  70  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  72  45  73  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51








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