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000
FXUS64 KLUB 041726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  93  65  93 /   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  93 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  91  64  92 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  93  68  94 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  66  92 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  73  98 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          69  95  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  99  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041726
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         64  93  65  93 /   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  93 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  91  64  92 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  93  68  94 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  66  92 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     71  98  73  98 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          69  95  69  96 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     72  99  72  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 041122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/26/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/26/74





000
FXUS64 KLUB 041122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/26/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/26/74





000
FXUS64 KLUB 040857
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 040857
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IF YOU WERE HOPING FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...STOP
READING NOW. THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING OFF
OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WSW OF THE BAJA OF
CALIFORNIA...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THE ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST TEXAS IS
GOING TO BE ABLE TO DO MUCH WITH THAT MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEEPENING OF THE JET RIDGE OVER
WEST TEXAS UP INTO KANSAS AND BROADENING ACROSS ALL OF TEXAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL BE WELL BACK INTO NM MIXING WELL
WITH THE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY KEVIN...SO EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO
STAY ON THAT SIDE OF THE BORDER. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN
THE PERIOD MOVING OFF THOSE STORMS...BUT AGAIN...IT IS UNLIKELY ATTM
THAT WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE SQUEEZED OUT OF THEM. ENJOY THE START
OF YOUR HOLIDAY WEEKEND!

.LONG TERM...
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS JET ACTION REMAINS WELL NORTH BY A GOOD 500 MILES.
THAT SAID...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF THE
START OF OUR FALL WEATHER. PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY SUNDAY WITH A FEW
STREAMWISE RIBBONS OF VORTICITY BETWEEN HERE AND THEN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSER INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A FINAL SYSTEM
DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT
WEEKEND. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH SOME CONVECTION BUT
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR CWFA. FRONT NUMBER TWO...MORE OF A BACK DOOR
TRAJECTORY...SURGES INTO THE PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECM ARE CONVECTING WITH AN OVERNIGHT MCS WITH THE CMC
REMAINING BONE DRY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXACTLY ONE THAT
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT SUCH A SCENARIO AND WILL TAPER POPS OVER THE
PUBLISHED BLENDER FOR NOW. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONT MAY COME TOWARD THURSDAY. THE GFS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THOUGH THE ECM IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH. QUITE OFTEN WE
DO GET A RESPECTABLE FRONT AND RAIN SYSTEM AROUND THE 11TH SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  91  64 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   93  64  91  66 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  71  98  73 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          97  69  95  69 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     98  72  99  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 040428
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/06Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 040428
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/06Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/





000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 05/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/





000
FXUS64 KLUB 032025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 032025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...WE ARE SEEING LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS PUFFY CUMULUS. THIS
AREA IS FARTHEST FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND NEAREST THE
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WHILE AT LEAST A FEW SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
INDICATE LOW COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE HAVE RETAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART...
JUST A SLIGHT EXPANSION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THOSE SMALL THUNDER
CHANCES THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. OTHERWISE THE ORDER OF
THINGS WILL NOT DIFFER MUCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND A COMFORTABLE BLEND
FOR TOMORROWS MAXIMUMS...AS WELL AS MOSTLY LIGHT WIND FLOW.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS ITERATION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY BACK OFF TO THE EAST AS
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN STATES.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO EDGE EASTWARD...LIKELY
BENDING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FEED IS ALSO PROGGED TO THIN BY
THEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN /IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ PASSING OFF TO OUR WEST BEFORE THEN.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN EASTWARD STRAYING SURFACE TROUGH...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE SLIM STORM
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES ON
SATURDAY...BUT COULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY
LATE SUNDAY.

THE BULK OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL
NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY IN THE WEEK. EVEN SO...LOW THUNDER CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SAME FACTORS
DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...ONE
OR MORE WEAK RIPPLES IN THE FLOW MAY TOP THE FLATTENED RIDGE AND
BRING A LITTLE ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
TIMING SUCH DISTURBANCES REMAINS DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO AND/OR
THROUGH THE CWA MIDWEEK WHEN THE REST OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
TRANSLATES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT COULD FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT UNTIL RECENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OVERLY HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE LOW CHANCE POPS
OFFERED BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE ARE REASONABLE AND HAVE BEEN
ACCEPTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...MOSTLY IN THE
90S...UNTIL THE POTENTIAL FROPA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  65  89 /  20  10  10  10
TULIA         62  92  66  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     63  92  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     60  93  64  90 /  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  94  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   61  93  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    62  94  65  90 /  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     69  97  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          65  96  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     67  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF
KPVW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         63  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  64  90 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  64  89 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  90 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF
KPVW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         63  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  64  90 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  64  89 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  90 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF
KPVW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         63  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  64  90 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  64  89 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  90 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 031710
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS BARELY EAST OF THE
AREA AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERHEAD. PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 50 MILES WEST OF
KPVW. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  88 /  20  10  10  20
TULIA         63  90  64  90 /  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  90  64  90 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  91  63  89 /   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   64  90  64  89 /   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  90 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          67  94  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     70  95  70  96 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  63  90  63 /  10  20  10  10
TULIA         92  63  90  64 /   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  90  64 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     91  62  91  63 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   92  64  90  64 /   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    92  64  91  64 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     96  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          94  67  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     97  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030907
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY
AND GIVING WE ARE STILL IN LATE SUMMER...THIS PRETTY MUCH SPELLS
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  590DAM HIGH
EXISTS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES.  LOW IS NOW ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WE HAVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN.  INFLUENCE ON MONSOONAL FETCH
APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING /ABOUT 20-30 MI/
AND GIVEN INDICATIONS IN THIS MORNING/S FCST SOUNDING DATA...IT
WOULD APPEAR SOME MENTION OF POPS UP PARMER COUNTY WAY ARE
WARRANTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

.LONG TERM...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE SW TO NE ORIENTED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
JUST A BIT TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND DUE TO A NW
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS COULD ALLOW THE FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE /AND ADDED PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IN THE ERN PACIFIC/ TO IMPINGE ON THE
FAR WRN AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA...AND ARE ALSO SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUM TO THIN WITH TIME. IT IS NO WONDER THAT THE MAJORITY
OF SOLUTIONS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...THOUGH THE NAM IS RATHER BULLISH AND
STICKING TO ITS GUNS FOR CI ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A
SFC TROUGH AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS DEFINITELY
PLAUSIBLE AND CAN NOT BE IGNORED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. BY LATE
WEEKEND...THE UA RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED BACK ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILST DE-
AMPLIFYING A BIT...THANKS TO THE NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING
ENE TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. EMBEDDED
PACIFIC DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE UA RIDGE...WHILE
CONCURRENTLY A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
COULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF HINT AT A STRONGER FRONT BEING ABLE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY/FRIDAY PROMOTING YET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. THIS IS
ALL ASSUMING THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL IN FACT PUSH SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND MAKE WAY FOR THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES.

ASIDE FOR POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL
AND CLOUD COVER /WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHS TO FALL INTO THE 80S AND
90S/...HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  63  90  63 /  10  20  10  10
TULIA         92  63  90  64 /   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  90  64 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     91  62  91  63 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   92  64  90  64 /   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    92  64  91  64 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     96  70  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          94  67  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     97  70  95  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030446
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MINIMAL CHANGES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY. MODEST
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO COAX US INTO MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF US IN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL REMAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY ANOTHER NOTCH WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO BACK OFF TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO BEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER MOISTURE /WITH A TAP FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT
THE MOST NWP HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON GENERATING EVEN LIGHT QPF ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TOWARD
10 PERCENT THERE...WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES FURTHER EAST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE MONSOONAL PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEND EVEN
FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER SHOT OF STORMS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE
THINNING. THE STORM CHANCES MAY EDGE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH FURTHER THINNING OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AT
OUR LATITUDE WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL TEND TO FURTHER
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS
REMAINS IN FLUX. GIVEN THIS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIM RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WEAK
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE FLAT RIDGE MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF WEAK
LIFT IN OR NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A
COLD FRONT CAN MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  91  63  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     63  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030446
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MINIMAL CHANGES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY. MODEST
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO COAX US INTO MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF US IN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL REMAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY ANOTHER NOTCH WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO BACK OFF TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO BEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER MOISTURE /WITH A TAP FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT
THE MOST NWP HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON GENERATING EVEN LIGHT QPF ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TOWARD
10 PERCENT THERE...WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES FURTHER EAST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE MONSOONAL PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEND EVEN
FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER SHOT OF STORMS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE
THINNING. THE STORM CHANCES MAY EDGE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH FURTHER THINNING OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AT
OUR LATITUDE WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL TEND TO FURTHER
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS
REMAINS IN FLUX. GIVEN THIS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIM RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WEAK
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE FLAT RIDGE MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF WEAK
LIFT IN OR NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A
COLD FRONT CAN MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  91  63  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     63  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/





000
FXUS64 KLUB 022323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MINIMAL CHANGES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY. MODEST
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO COAX US INTO MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF US IN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL REMAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY ANOTHER NOTCH WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO BACK OFF TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO BEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER MOISTURE /WITH A TAP FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT
THE MOST NWP HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON GENERATING EVEN LIGHT QPF ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TOWARD
10 PERCENT THERE...WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES FURTHER EAST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE MONSOONAL PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEND EVEN
FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER SHOT OF STORMS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE
THINNING. THE STORM CHANCES MAY EDGE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH FURTHER THINNING OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AT
OUR LATITUDE WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL TEND TO FURTHER
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS
REMAINS IN FLUX. GIVEN THIS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIM RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WEAK
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE FLAT RIDGE MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF WEAK
LIFT IN OR NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A
COLD FRONT CAN MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  91  63  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     63  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MINIMAL CHANGES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY. MODEST
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO COAX US INTO MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF US IN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL REMAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY ANOTHER NOTCH WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO BACK OFF TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO BEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER MOISTURE /WITH A TAP FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT
THE MOST NWP HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON GENERATING EVEN LIGHT QPF ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TOWARD
10 PERCENT THERE...WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES FURTHER EAST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE MONSOONAL PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEND EVEN
FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER SHOT OF STORMS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE
THINNING. THE STORM CHANCES MAY EDGE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH FURTHER THINNING OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AT
OUR LATITUDE WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL TEND TO FURTHER
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS
REMAINS IN FLUX. GIVEN THIS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIM RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WEAK
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE FLAT RIDGE MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF WEAK
LIFT IN OR NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A
COLD FRONT CAN MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  91  63  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     63  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/





000
FXUS64 KLUB 022323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MINIMAL CHANGES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY. MODEST
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO COAX US INTO MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF US IN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL REMAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY ANOTHER NOTCH WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO BACK OFF TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO BEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER MOISTURE /WITH A TAP FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT
THE MOST NWP HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON GENERATING EVEN LIGHT QPF ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TOWARD
10 PERCENT THERE...WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES FURTHER EAST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE MONSOONAL PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEND EVEN
FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER SHOT OF STORMS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE
THINNING. THE STORM CHANCES MAY EDGE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH FURTHER THINNING OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AT
OUR LATITUDE WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL TEND TO FURTHER
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS
REMAINS IN FLUX. GIVEN THIS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIM RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WEAK
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE FLAT RIDGE MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF WEAK
LIFT IN OR NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A
COLD FRONT CAN MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  91  63  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     63  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/





000
FXUS64 KLUB 022323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MINIMAL CHANGES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY. MODEST
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO COAX US INTO MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF US IN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL REMAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY ANOTHER NOTCH WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO BACK OFF TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO BEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER MOISTURE /WITH A TAP FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT
THE MOST NWP HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON GENERATING EVEN LIGHT QPF ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TOWARD
10 PERCENT THERE...WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES FURTHER EAST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE MONSOONAL PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEND EVEN
FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER SHOT OF STORMS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE
THINNING. THE STORM CHANCES MAY EDGE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH FURTHER THINNING OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AT
OUR LATITUDE WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL TEND TO FURTHER
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS
REMAINS IN FLUX. GIVEN THIS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIM RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WEAK
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE FLAT RIDGE MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF WEAK
LIFT IN OR NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A
COLD FRONT CAN MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  91  63  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     63  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022030
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MINIMAL CHANGES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY. MODEST
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO COAX US INTO MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF US IN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL REMAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY ANOTHER NOTCH WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO BACK OFF TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO BEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER MOISTURE /WITH A TAP FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT
THE MOST NWP HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON GENERATING EVEN LIGHT QPF ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TOWARD
10 PERCENT THERE...WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES FURTHER EAST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE MONSOONAL PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEND EVEN
FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER SHOT OF STORMS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE
THINNING. THE STORM CHANCES MAY EDGE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH FURTHER THINNING OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AT
OUR LATITUDE WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL TEND TO FURTHER
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS
REMAINS IN FLUX. GIVEN THIS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIM RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WEAK
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE FLAT RIDGE MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF WEAK
LIFT IN OR NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A
COLD FRONT CAN MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  91  63  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     63  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 022030
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MINIMAL CHANGES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL NUDGE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST LATER THURSDAY. MODEST
INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH TO COAX US INTO MENTIONABLE THUNDER CHANCES...WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF US IN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURE
REGIME WILL REMAIN...WITH LOWS TONIGHT LIKELY ANOTHER NOTCH WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SLOW TO BACK OFF TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DO SO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON TO BEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THE
IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
AREA AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
THAT SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER MOISTURE /WITH A TAP FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ AND MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS AND THE FACT
THE MOST NWP HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON GENERATING EVEN LIGHT QPF ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWN TOWARD
10 PERCENT THERE...WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES FURTHER EAST. IT DOES
APPEAR THE MONSOONAL PLUME AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEND EVEN
FURTHER EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A BETTER SHOT OF STORMS FOR OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE
THINNING. THE STORM CHANCES MAY EDGE EVEN FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH FURTHER THINNING OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AT
OUR LATITUDE WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE. A SIMILAR
SETUP WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY
TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL TEND TO FURTHER
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS HAPPENS
REMAINS IN FLUX. GIVEN THIS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIM RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WEAK
DISTURBANCES TOPPING THE FLAT RIDGE MAY PROVIDE PERIODS OF WEAK
LIFT IN OR NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF A
COLD FRONT CAN MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE ANOTHER POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES.

BEFORE ANY POTENTIAL COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RESIDE SEVERAL DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  91  63  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     68  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     63  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       66  92  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   64  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    65  91  63  90 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          67  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  95  69  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021739
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND MODEST SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO LINE. MODEST SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BREEZES MAINLY LATE MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A
SEPARATE CHANGE GROUP AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS UP IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...SPEED/DIRECTION
CRITERIA FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WIND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT. DIRECTION VARIANCE FROM 160-200 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
DURING PERIODS OF WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH
IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.  HIGH RESOLUTION DATA DEPICTS A DRY PICTURE
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST.  TEMPS WONT CHANGE MUCH BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE RATHER STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SAID UA RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TO PERHAPS ALLOW THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST /WITH AN
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/ TO
IMPINGE ON THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREAFTER...THE UA
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
MAY QUICKLY BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED WHILST SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
FA COURTESY OF AN A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...BEING CONCURRENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SUGGESTS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS PLAUSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. IT IS HOWEVER TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH DEFINITIVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL INDEED FLATTEN
OUT AND SHIFT SOUTH...BECAUSE IT COULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS MITIGATING STORM
POTENTIAL. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY APPEARS VALID
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO
WHAT THE RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS /80S AND 90S/ FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  63  89 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         63  91  64  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  91  64  90 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  92  66  91 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   64  92  65  91 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  70  95 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          67  94  70  93 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     70  96  72  95 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021739
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND MODEST SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO LINE. MODEST SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT BREEZES MAINLY LATE MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A
SEPARATE CHANGE GROUP AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS UP IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...SPEED/DIRECTION
CRITERIA FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WIND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT. DIRECTION VARIANCE FROM 160-200 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
DURING PERIODS OF WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH
IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.  HIGH RESOLUTION DATA DEPICTS A DRY PICTURE
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST.  TEMPS WONT CHANGE MUCH BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE RATHER STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SAID UA RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TO PERHAPS ALLOW THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST /WITH AN
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/ TO
IMPINGE ON THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREAFTER...THE UA
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
MAY QUICKLY BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED WHILST SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
FA COURTESY OF AN A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...BEING CONCURRENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SUGGESTS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS PLAUSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. IT IS HOWEVER TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH DEFINITIVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL INDEED FLATTEN
OUT AND SHIFT SOUTH...BECAUSE IT COULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS MITIGATING STORM
POTENTIAL. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY APPEARS VALID
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO
WHAT THE RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS /80S AND 90S/ FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  91  63  89 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         63  91  64  90 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  91  64  90 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  92  66  91 /   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  93  67  91 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   64  92  65  91 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  93  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  96  70  95 /   0   0  10   0
SPUR          67  94  70  93 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     70  96  72  95 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS UP IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...SPEED/DIRECTION
CRITERIA FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WIND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT. DIRECTION VARIANCE FROM 160-200 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
DURING PERIODS OF WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH
IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.  HIGH RESOLUTION DATA DEPICTS A DRY PICTURE
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST.  TEMPS WONT CHANGE MUCH BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE RATHER STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SAID UA RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TO PERHAPS ALLOW THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST /WITH AN
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/ TO
IMPINGE ON THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREAFTER...THE UA
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
MAY QUICKLY BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED WHILST SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
FA COURTESY OF AN A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...BEING CONCURRENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SUGGESTS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS PLAUSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. IT IS HOWEVER TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH DEFINITIVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL INDEED FLATTEN
OUT AND SHIFT SOUTH...BECAUSE IT COULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS MITIGATING STORM
POTENTIAL. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY APPEARS VALID
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO
WHAT THE RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS /80S AND 90S/ FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  63  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         91  63  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     91  64  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     91  63  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       92  66  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   91  64  92  65 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    91  64  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  70  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS UP IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...SPEED/DIRECTION
CRITERIA FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WIND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT. DIRECTION VARIANCE FROM 160-200 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
DURING PERIODS OF WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH
IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.  HIGH RESOLUTION DATA DEPICTS A DRY PICTURE
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST.  TEMPS WONT CHANGE MUCH BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE RATHER STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SAID UA RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TO PERHAPS ALLOW THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST /WITH AN
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/ TO
IMPINGE ON THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREAFTER...THE UA
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
MAY QUICKLY BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED WHILST SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
FA COURTESY OF AN A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...BEING CONCURRENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SUGGESTS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS PLAUSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. IT IS HOWEVER TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH DEFINITIVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL INDEED FLATTEN
OUT AND SHIFT SOUTH...BECAUSE IT COULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS MITIGATING STORM
POTENTIAL. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY APPEARS VALID
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO
WHAT THE RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS /80S AND 90S/ FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  63  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         91  63  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     91  64  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     91  63  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       92  66  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   91  64  92  65 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    91  64  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  70  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS UP IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...SPEED/DIRECTION
CRITERIA FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WIND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT. DIRECTION VARIANCE FROM 160-200 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
DURING PERIODS OF WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH
IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.  HIGH RESOLUTION DATA DEPICTS A DRY PICTURE
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST.  TEMPS WONT CHANGE MUCH BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE RATHER STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SAID UA RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TO PERHAPS ALLOW THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST /WITH AN
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/ TO
IMPINGE ON THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREAFTER...THE UA
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
MAY QUICKLY BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED WHILST SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
FA COURTESY OF AN A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...BEING CONCURRENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SUGGESTS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS PLAUSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. IT IS HOWEVER TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH DEFINITIVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL INDEED FLATTEN
OUT AND SHIFT SOUTH...BECAUSE IT COULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS MITIGATING STORM
POTENTIAL. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY APPEARS VALID
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO
WHAT THE RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS /80S AND 90S/ FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  63  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         91  63  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     91  64  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     91  63  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       92  66  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   91  64  92  65 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    91  64  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  70  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS UP IN THE UPPER TEENS. HOWEVER...SPEED/DIRECTION
CRITERIA FOR THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WIND SHOULD BE MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT. DIRECTION VARIANCE FROM 160-200 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
DURING PERIODS OF WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH
IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.  HIGH RESOLUTION DATA DEPICTS A DRY PICTURE
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST.  TEMPS WONT CHANGE MUCH BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE RATHER STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SAID UA RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TO PERHAPS ALLOW THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST /WITH AN
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/ TO
IMPINGE ON THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREAFTER...THE UA
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
MAY QUICKLY BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED WHILST SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
FA COURTESY OF AN A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...BEING CONCURRENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SUGGESTS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS PLAUSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. IT IS HOWEVER TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH DEFINITIVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL INDEED FLATTEN
OUT AND SHIFT SOUTH...BECAUSE IT COULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS MITIGATING STORM
POTENTIAL. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY APPEARS VALID
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO
WHAT THE RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS /80S AND 90S/ FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  63  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         91  63  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     91  64  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     91  63  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       92  66  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   91  64  92  65 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    91  64  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  70  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020805
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH
IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.  HIGH RESOLUTION DATA DEPICTS A DRY PICTURE
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST.  TEMPS WONT CHANGE MUCH BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE RATHER STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SAID UA RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TO PERHAPS ALLOW THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST /WITH AN
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/ TO
IMPINGE ON THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREAFTER...THE UA
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
MAY QUICKLY BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED WHILST SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
FA COURTESY OF AN A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...BEING CONCURRENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SUGGESTS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS PLAUSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. IT IS HOWEVER TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH DEFINITIVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL INDEED FLATTEN
OUT AND SHIFT SOUTH...BECAUSE IT COULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS MITIGATING STORM
POTENTIAL. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY APPEARS VALID
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO
WHAT THE RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS /80S AND 90S/ FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  63  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         91  63  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     91  64  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     91  63  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       92  66  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   91  64  92  65 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    91  64  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  70  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020805
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE HIGH IS NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND MONSOONAL FETCH
IS LOCATED TO OUR WEST.  IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES.  HIGH RESOLUTION DATA DEPICTS A DRY PICTURE
FOR THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE NO REASON TO DIVERGE FROM THIS THINKING.
CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST.  TEMPS WONT CHANGE MUCH BUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE RATHER STAGNATE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...AT LEAST
LOCALLY...AS AN UA RIDGE STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SAID UA RIDGE IS STILL
PROGGED TO SHIFT JUST ENOUGH EAST OF THE CWA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TO PERHAPS ALLOW THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST /WITH AN
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E THOUGH THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST/ TO
IMPINGE ON THE FAR WRN AND NWRN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND
DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THEREAFTER...THE UA
RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
MAY QUICKLY BECOME DE-AMPLIFIED WHILST SHIFTING A BIT SOUTH OF THE
FA COURTESY OF AN A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TRACKING ENE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...BEING CONCURRENT
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
MONDAY/TUESDAY...SUGGESTS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS PLAUSIBLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN ZONES/. IT IS HOWEVER TOO EARLY TO SAY
WITH DEFINITIVE CONFIDENCE THAT THE UA RIDGE WILL INDEED FLATTEN
OUT AND SHIFT SOUTH...BECAUSE IT COULD REMAIN UNCHANGED AND
PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THUS MITIGATING STORM
POTENTIAL. THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION DEPICTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY-TUESDAY APPEARS VALID
ATTM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED IF THINGS DO NOT GO ACCORDING TO
WHAT THE RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING.

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS /80S AND 90S/ FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  63  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
TULIA         91  63  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     91  64  91  64 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     91  63  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       92  66  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   91  64  92  65 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    91  64  93  67 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     96  70  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     97  70  96  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 020441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON GUSTY LLJ WINDS
IN THE MORNING...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD. MAY HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS TOMORROW MORNING AGAIN...BUT WILL ADDRESS WITH NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 020441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON GUSTY LLJ WINDS
IN THE MORNING...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD. MAY HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS TOMORROW MORNING AGAIN...BUT WILL ADDRESS WITH NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON GUSTY LLJ WINDS
IN THE MORNING...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD. MAY HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS TOMORROW MORNING AGAIN...BUT WILL ADDRESS WITH NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 020441
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON GUSTY LLJ WINDS
IN THE MORNING...SO HAVE REFRAINED FROM MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD. MAY HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS TOMORROW MORNING AGAIN...BUT WILL ADDRESS WITH NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ENTIRE PERIOD. MAY HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS TOMORROW MORNING AGAIN...BUT WILL ADDRESS WITH NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 012026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 012026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY...ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE
TROUGH WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WELL THEN WILL REMAIN JUST TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. WE WILL RETAIN DRY AND MILD FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EVEN SO THERE ARE A
FEW CAVEATS. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EDGE JUST FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. THIS MAY ALLOW THE EASTERN EXPANSE
OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TO BEND OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /INFUSED BY A TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONNECTION FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E...THOUGH
DIRECTED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST/...COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SURFACE
TROUGH AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING MIGHT SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FROM LATE WEEK RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE TROUGH PASSAGE THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT STILL APPEARS THE FRONT
WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES NORTH TOO. BEYOND MONDAY...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ON HOW
FAST OR IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF CURRENTLY BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT ONE OR MORE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TOPPING THE RIDGE COULD TRAVERSE THE CWA AND BRING A CHANCE OF
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AND WE HAVE
ACCEPTED IT FOR NOW...THOUGH IF THE UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO BREAK
DOWN THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE CONFINED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  92  62  91 /  10  10  10  20
TULIA         62  91  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     62  90  63  91 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   65  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    64  91  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  95  69  96 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          66  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23




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