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000
FXUS64 KLUB 252237
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EDGING
A BIT EAST AS WELL WITH VERY WARM DOWN-SLOPE FLOW FAVORED. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS LATE NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE OUT WITH MORE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER
WEATHER. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS
WILL FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
POINT OF REFERENCE...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ARE:

              TODAY /OCT 25/       TOMORROW /OCT 26/
LUBBOCK:    91 DEGREES /1959/      88 DEGREES /1979/
CHILDRESS:  94 DEGREES /2011/      93 DEGREES /1950/

AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S WERE COMMONPLACE...WITH
EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...INCLUDING CHILDRESS...AT OR AROUND 90
DEGREES.

THIS FALL WARMTH WAS BEING PROVIDED BY A STOUT LATE SEASON UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEST TEXAS...THOUGH ONLY MINOR HEIGHT
FALLS SHOULD BE CANCELED OUT BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY. THUS...EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON IN THE
80S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH A FEW LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. THE
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH AND INCREASING FLOW NORMAL TO THE
MOUNTAINS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH WHICH IN TURN
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. IN ADDITION...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE
HIGH-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE GET CARRIED OVER
TOMORROW...WITH PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS BREAKING UP THE CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES OF LATE.

BEFORE THEN...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD
ANOTHER COOL /BUT ABOVE AVERAGE/ NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER EAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...A LITTLE PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN ON THE CAPROCK...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AT BEST AND WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.

LONG TERM...
MODELS AGAIN SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND RUN-
TO-RUN RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OF THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG
IT...PRIMARILY EASTERN ZONES. PROGGED SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 50S...BUT TIME OF DAY MEANS ANY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
CAPE LESS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO FAIRLY
MODEST...AND THE WEAK AND VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS CONCURRENTLY WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO GENERATE MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT EITHER. OBVIOUSLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO...BUT THERE
ARE STILL TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED TO INSERT MENTION
ATTM.

A SECOND COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NO LIFT WITH
NO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN NWLY FLOW OVERHEAD.

WARM TEMPS MONDAY TO BE REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THEN ONLY TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS. REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT COULD LEAD TO
COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE SEASON LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  86  52  75  38 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         50  87  54  78  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  86  54  80  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     50  86  54  81  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       53  87  56  82  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  87  54  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    49  87  55  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  92  60  86  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  55  86  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  88  57  87  49 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 252011
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE OUT WITH MORE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER
WEATHER. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS
WILL FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
POINT OF REFERENCE...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ARE:

              TODAY /OCT 25/       TOMORROW /OCT 26/
LUBBOCK:    91 DEGREES /1959/      88 DEGREES /1979/
CHILDRESS:  94 DEGREES /2011/      93 DEGREES /1950/

AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S WERE COMMONPLACE...WITH
EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...INCLUDING CHILDRESS...AT OR AROUND 90
DEGREES.

THIS FALL WARMTH WAS BEING PROVIDED BY A STOUT LATE SEASON UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEST TEXAS...THOUGH ONLY MINOR HEIGHT
FALLS SHOULD BE CANCELED OUT BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY. THUS...EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON IN THE
80S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH A FEW LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. THE
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH AND INCREASING FLOW NORMAL TO THE
MOUNTAINS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH WHICH IN TURN
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. IN ADDITION...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE
HIGH-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE GET CARRIED OVER
TOMORROW...WITH PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS BREAKING UP THE CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES OF LATE.

BEFORE THEN...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD
ANOTHER COOL /BUT ABOVE AVERAGE/ NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER EAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...A LITTLE PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN ON THE CAPROCK...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AT BEST AND WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS AGAIN SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND RUN-
TO-RUN RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBILY OF THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG
IT...PRIMARILY EASTERN ZONES. PROGGED SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 50S...BUT TIME OF DAY MEANS ANY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
CAPE LESS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO FAIRLY
MODEST...AND THE WEAK AND VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS CONCURRENLY WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO GENERATE MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT EITHER. OBVIOUSLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO...BUT THERE
ARE STILL TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED TO INSERT MENTION
ATTM.

A SECOND COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NO LIFT WITH
NO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN NWLY FLOW OVERHEAD.

WARM TEMPS MONDAY TO BE REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THEN ONLY TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS. REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT COULD LEAD TO
COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE SEASON LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  86  52  75  38 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         50  87  54  78  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  86  54  80  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     50  86  54  81  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       53  87  56  82  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  87  54  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    49  87  55  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  92  60  86  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  55  86  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  88  57  87  49 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 251719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FANTASTIC FLYING WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PATCHY GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN
SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES OF ANY FOG DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS ITERATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD.  WHILE 24 HOURS AGO WEST TEXAS WAS DEALING
WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE INHERITED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES YET
AGAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
RECORDS FOR TODAY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 AND 94 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY JUST A
SHADE BELOW THOSE NUMBERS IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE READINGS THIS MORNING...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 MILES PER
HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...AND BLUEBIRD SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGHINESS OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS ON MONDAY.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS
POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN PART OF
ALASKA.  IN LOOKING AT THE ECM...LAST NIGHT WE MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE AROUND HALLOWEEN.  HOWEVER...THE MJO DOES NOT
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SUPPORT OF AN EVENT FOR
US...THUS...PROBABLY BEST TO NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THOSE PROSPECTS
QUITE YET.  IN FACT...USING THE MJO ALONE AS AN INDICATOR...IT MAY
TAKE US UNTIL ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER TO GET A GOOD COLD-AIR DUMP INTO
THE REGION.  BUT I DIGRESS.

AFTER MILDLY BREEZY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN INTERESTING PERIOD
COMES MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  THE GFS/ECM
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE NAM...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS AN OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES.  GIVEN THAT THIS SO RARELY
HAPPENS...AM INCLINED TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ATTM. DRIER AIR
STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT DOES LOOK
TO ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY DRY AS WELL.  AFTER A
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  85  54  79  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         53  86  56  81  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     53  85  56  82  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     52  85  57  83  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       54  86  58  84  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   52  85  57  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    53  86  57  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  90  60  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          54  86  57  87  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  87  58  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 251719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FANTASTIC FLYING WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PATCHY GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN
SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES OF ANY FOG DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS ITERATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD.  WHILE 24 HOURS AGO WEST TEXAS WAS DEALING
WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE INHERITED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES YET
AGAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
RECORDS FOR TODAY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 AND 94 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY JUST A
SHADE BELOW THOSE NUMBERS IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE READINGS THIS MORNING...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 MILES PER
HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...AND BLUEBIRD SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGHINESS OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS ON MONDAY.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS
POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN PART OF
ALASKA.  IN LOOKING AT THE ECM...LAST NIGHT WE MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE AROUND HALLOWEEN.  HOWEVER...THE MJO DOES NOT
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SUPPORT OF AN EVENT FOR
US...THUS...PROBABLY BEST TO NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THOSE PROSPECTS
QUITE YET.  IN FACT...USING THE MJO ALONE AS AN INDICATOR...IT MAY
TAKE US UNTIL ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER TO GET A GOOD COLD-AIR DUMP INTO
THE REGION.  BUT I DIGRESS.

AFTER MILDLY BREEZY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN INTERESTING PERIOD
COMES MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  THE GFS/ECM
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE NAM...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS AN OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES.  GIVEN THAT THIS SO RARELY
HAPPENS...AM INCLINED TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ATTM. DRIER AIR
STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT DOES LOOK
TO ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY DRY AS WELL.  AFTER A
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  85  54  79  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         53  86  56  81  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     53  85  56  82  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     52  85  57  83  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       54  86  58  84  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   52  85  57  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    53  86  57  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  90  60  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          54  86  57  87  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  87  58  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 251105
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH LBB AND CDS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS ITERATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD.  WHILE 24 HOURS AGO WEST TEXAS WAS DEALING
WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE INHERITED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES YET
AGAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
RECORDS FOR TODAY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 AND 94 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY JUST A
SHADE BELOW THOSE NUMBERS IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE READINGS THIS MORNING...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 MILES PER
HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...AND BLUEBIRD SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGHINESS OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS ON MONDAY.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS
POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN PART OF
ALASKA.  IN LOOKING AT THE ECM...LAST NIGHT WE MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE AROUND HALLOWEEN.  HOWEVER...THE MJO DOES NOT
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SUPPORT OF AN EVENT FOR
US...THUS...PROBABLY BEST TO NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THOSE PROSPECTS
QUITE YET.  IN FACT...USING THE MJO ALONE AS AN INDICATOR...IT MAY
TAKE US UNTIL ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER TO GET A GOOD COLD-AIR DUMP INTO
THE REGION.  BUT I DIGRESS.

AFTER MILDLY BREEZY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN INTERESTING PERIOD
COMES MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  THE GFS/ECM
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE NAM...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS AN OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES.  GIVEN THAT THIS SO RARELY
HAPPENS...AM INCLINED TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ATTM. DRIER AIR
STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT DOES LOOK
TO ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY DRY AS WELL.  AFTER A
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  50  85  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  53  86  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     85  53  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     85  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       87  54  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  53  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     94  59  90  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          88  54  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  58  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 251105
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH LBB AND CDS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS ITERATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD.  WHILE 24 HOURS AGO WEST TEXAS WAS DEALING
WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE INHERITED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES YET
AGAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
RECORDS FOR TODAY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 AND 94 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY JUST A
SHADE BELOW THOSE NUMBERS IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE READINGS THIS MORNING...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 MILES PER
HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...AND BLUEBIRD SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGHINESS OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS ON MONDAY.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS
POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN PART OF
ALASKA.  IN LOOKING AT THE ECM...LAST NIGHT WE MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE AROUND HALLOWEEN.  HOWEVER...THE MJO DOES NOT
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SUPPORT OF AN EVENT FOR
US...THUS...PROBABLY BEST TO NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THOSE PROSPECTS
QUITE YET.  IN FACT...USING THE MJO ALONE AS AN INDICATOR...IT MAY
TAKE US UNTIL ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER TO GET A GOOD COLD-AIR DUMP INTO
THE REGION.  BUT I DIGRESS.

AFTER MILDLY BREEZY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN INTERESTING PERIOD
COMES MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  THE GFS/ECM
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE NAM...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS AN OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES.  GIVEN THAT THIS SO RARELY
HAPPENS...AM INCLINED TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ATTM. DRIER AIR
STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT DOES LOOK
TO ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY DRY AS WELL.  AFTER A
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  50  85  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  53  86  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     85  53  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     85  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       87  54  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  53  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     94  59  90  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          88  54  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  58  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 250807
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS ITERATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD.  WHILE 24 HOURS AGO WEST TEXAS WAS DEALING
WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE INHERITED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES YET
AGAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
RECORDS FOR TODAY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 AND 94 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY JUST A
SHADE BELOW THOSE NUMBERS IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE READINGS THIS MORNING...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 MILES PER
HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...AND BLUEBIRD SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGHINESS OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS ON MONDAY.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS
POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN PART OF
ALASKA.  IN LOOKING AT THE ECM...LAST NIGHT WE MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE AROUND HALLOWEEN.  HOWEVER...THE MJO DOES NOT
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SUPPORT OF AN EVENT FOR
US...THUS...PROBABLY BEST TO NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THOSE PROSPECTS
QUITE YET.  IN FACT...USING THE MJO ALONE AS AN INDICATOR...IT MAY
TAKE US UNTIL ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER TO GET A GOOD COLD-AIR DUMP INTO
THE REGION.  BUT I DIGRESS.

AFTER MILDLY BREEZY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN INTERESTING PERIOD
COMES MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  THE GFS/ECM
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE NAM...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS AN OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES.  GIVEN THAT THIS SO RARELY
HAPPENS...AM INCLINED TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ATTM. DRIER AIR
STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT DOES LOOK
TO ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY DRY AS WELL.  AFTER A
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  50  85  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  53  86  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     85  53  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     85  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       87  54  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  53  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     94  59  90  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          88  54  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  58  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 250434
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE EXISTS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW FOG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT EITHER TAF SITE BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES. IN FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK. THESE HIGHS ARE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NOT FAR FROM RECORD LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGHS AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 DEGREES /1959/ AND 94 DEGREES
/2011/...RESPECTIVELY...FOR OCTOBER 25TH /SATURDAY/. BEFORE
THEN...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE
BACK DOWN INTO 50S FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK MAY SEE LOWS BRIEFLY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S WITH EVEN A COUPLE
OF MIDDLE 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDY SOILS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE DEWPOINT...BUT THE RISK LOOKS EVEN MORE
LIMITED THAN THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED THE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WHAT IS A FAIRLY
STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THICKNESSES LOWER
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER WINDS VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL COUNTERACT MUCH OF THE COOLING
DUE TO LOWERING THICKNESSES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY HELPING LOWER TEMPS
TO OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE FOR THE WEEK. PRECIP LOOKING
UNLIKELY WITH TIMING OF INITIAL FRONT UNFAVORABLE AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LIKELY LIMITED FOR THE FRONT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY NWLY MID TO UPPER FLOW AND A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         54  86  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  85  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  85  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  84  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  92  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          53  88  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 242307
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
607 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE EXISTS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW FOG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT EITHER TAF SITE BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES. IN FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK. THESE HIGHS ARE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NOT FAR FROM RECORD LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGHS AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 DEGREES /1959/ AND 94 DEGREES
/2011/...RESPECTIVELY...FOR OCTOBER 25TH /SATURDAY/. BEFORE
THEN...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE
BACK DOWN INTO 50S FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK MAY SEE LOWS BRIEFLY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S WITH EVEN A COUPLE
OF MIDDLE 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDY SOILS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE DEWPOINT...BUT THE RISK LOOKS EVEN MORE
LIMITED THAN THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED THE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WHAT IS A FAIRLY
STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THICKNESSES LOWER
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER WINDS VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL COUNTERACT MUCH OF THE COOLING
DUE TO LOWERING THICKNESSES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY HELPING LOWER TEMPS
TO OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE FOR THE WEEK. PRECIP LOOKING
UNLIKELY WITH TIMING OF INITIAL FRONT UNFAVORABLE AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LIKELY LIMITED FOR THE FRONT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY NWLY MID TO UPPER FLOW AND A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         54  86  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  85  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  85  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  84  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  92  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          53  88  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 242007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
307 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES. IN FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK. THESE HIGHS ARE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NOT FAR FROM RECORD LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGHS AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 DEGREES /1959/ AND 94 DEGREES
/2011/...RESPECTIVELY...FOR OCTOBER 25TH /SATURDAY/. BEFORE
THEN...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE
BACK DOWN INTO 50S FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK MAY SEE LOWS BRIEFLY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S WITH EVEN A COUPLE
OF MIDDLE 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDY SOILS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE DEWPOINT...BUT THE RISK LOOKS EVEN MORE
LIMITED THAN THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED THE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WHAT IS A FAIRLY
STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THICKNESSES LOWER
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER WINDS VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL COUNTERACT MUCH OF THE COOLING
DUE TO LOWERING THICKNESSES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY HELPING LOWER TEMPS
TO OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE FOR THE WEEK. PRECIP LOOKING
UNLIKELY WITH TIMING OF INITIAL FRONT UNFAVORABLE AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LIKELY LIMITED FOR THE FRONT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY NWLY MID TO UPPER FLOW AND A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         54  86  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  85  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  85  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  84  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  92  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          53  88  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 241728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THIS CYCLE. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD FORM AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH IF IT DOES FORM ITS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES OF A TERMINAL IMPACT TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...BACKING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING...THEN VEERING BACK WESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE THE FOG MENTION AND DECREASE SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE LATE OCTOBER SUN HAS
BEEN ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA AS OF 15Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHERN BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES...THOUGH
EVEN HERE ANY RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS
WILL LEAVE SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANTLY WARM AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THE UPDATED GRID AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATION FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  WHILE THOSE TWO FACTORS ARE IN PLACE...AND INDEED PATCHY FOG
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR AND ON THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS.  IN
PARTICULAR...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...SLOWLY ADVECTING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WHILE THIS ISN`T NECESSARILY A DEATH
SENTENCE FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT EVEN IN SOME OF THESE
DRIER AREAS TEMP/DPT SPREADS ARE SMALL...GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS
WIND PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THIS
TREND...IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO VEER.  A FEW PLACES
MAY EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS TOO MARGINAL TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG
HEADLINES.  WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

BY MID-MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN OFF...REVEALING
BLUE-BIRD SKIES THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 83-88 DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL YET AGAIN...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IT SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP THINGS
WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.  FLOW REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AS TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER...FLOW CURVATURE TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE CYCLONICALLY FOR
MONDAY WITH NEAR ZONAL THROUGH TUE.  A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST
IN INTO THURSDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES.  THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHOULD SAG TO NEAR THE I20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE THOUGH TUESDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT
COOLER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN SET UP A SCENARIO FOR FIRST FREEZE
ON HALLOWEEN.  SPOOKY!  NEVERTHELESS...MODELS VARY A FAIR BIT BEYOND
DAY 4.  ALL IN ALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THINGS JUST DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  84  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  86  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  86  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  85  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  86  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  84  52  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  85  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  92  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          55  89  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  90  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 241516 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1016 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO REMOVE THE FOG MENTION AND DECREASE SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE LATE OCTOBER SUN HAS
BEEN ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA AS OF 15Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NORTHERN BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES...THOUGH
EVEN HERE ANY RESIDUAL FOG SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THIS
WILL LEAVE SUNNY SKIES AND A PLEASANTLY WARM AFTERNOON FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THE UPDATED GRID AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
SHALLOW FOG HAS CEASED AT LBB TERMINAL...BUT CONTINUES AT CDS.
THIS FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN NATURE...BUT MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH AT
TIMES TO RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT CDS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY LINGERING FOG AT DAYBREAK WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE...AND VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12 TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATION FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  WHILE THOSE TWO FACTORS ARE IN PLACE...AND INDEED PATCHY FOG
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR AND ON THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS.  IN
PARTICULAR...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...SLOWLY ADVECTING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WHILE THIS ISN`T NECESSARILY A DEATH
SENTENCE FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT EVEN IN SOME OF THESE
DRIER AREAS TEMP/DPT SPREADS ARE SMALL...GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS
WIND PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THIS
TREND...IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO VEER.  A FEW PLACES
MAY EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS TOO MARGINAL TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG
HEADLINES.  WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

BY MID-MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN OFF...REVEALING
BLUE-BIRD SKIES THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 83-88 DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL YET AGAIN...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IT SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP THINGS
WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.  FLOW REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AS TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER...FLOW CURVATURE TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE CYCLONICALLY FOR
MONDAY WITH NEAR ZONAL THROUGH TUE.  A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST
IN INTO THURSDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES.  THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHOULD SAG TO NEAR THE I20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE THOUGH TUESDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT
COOLER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN SET UP A SCENARIO FOR FIRST FREEZE
ON HALLOWEEN.  SPOOKY!  NEVERTHELESS...MODELS VARY A FAIR BIT BEYOND
DAY 4.  ALL IN ALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THINGS JUST DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  47  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  52  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  53  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     83  51  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       84  53  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  51  84  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    83  52  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     88  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          86  55  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     86  58  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 241105
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
SHALLOW FOG HAS CEASED AT LBB TERMINAL...BUT CONTINUES AT CDS.
THIS FOG IS VERY PATCHY IN NATURE...BUT MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH AT
TIMES TO RESULT IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AT CDS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY LINGERING FOG AT DAYBREAK WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE...AND VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12 TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATION FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  WHILE THOSE TWO FACTORS ARE IN PLACE...AND INDEED PATCHY FOG
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR AND ON THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS.  IN
PARTICULAR...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...SLOWLY ADVECTING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WHILE THIS ISN`T NECESSARILY A DEATH
SENTENCE FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT EVEN IN SOME OF THESE
DRIER AREAS TEMP/DPT SPREADS ARE SMALL...GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS
WIND PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THIS
TREND...IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO VEER.  A FEW PLACES
MAY EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS TOO MARGINAL TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG
HEADLINES.  WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

BY MID-MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN OFF...REVEALING
BLUE-BIRD SKIES THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 83-88 DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL YET AGAIN...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IT SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP THINGS
WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.  FLOW REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AS TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER...FLOW CURVATURE TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE CYCLONICALLY FOR
MONDAY WITH NEAR ZONAL THROUGH TUE.  A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST
IN INTO THURSDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES.  THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHOULD SAG TO NEAR THE I20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE THOUGH TUESDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT
COOLER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN SET UP A SCENARIO FOR FIRST FREEZE
ON HALLOWEEN.  SPOOKY!  NEVERTHELESS...MODELS VARY A FAIR BIT BEYOND
DAY 4.  ALL IN ALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THINGS JUST DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  47  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  52  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  53  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     83  51  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       84  53  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  51  84  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    83  52  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     88  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          86  55  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     86  58  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 240940
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
440 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RADIATION FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.  WHILE THOSE TWO FACTORS ARE IN PLACE...AND INDEED PATCHY FOG
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR AND ON THE ROLLING
PLAINS...THERE ARE A FEW FACTORS THAT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS.  IN
PARTICULAR...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY VEERING TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS...SLOWLY ADVECTING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WHILE THIS ISN`T NECESSARILY A DEATH
SENTENCE FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT EVEN IN SOME OF THESE
DRIER AREAS TEMP/DPT SPREADS ARE SMALL...GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS
WIND PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THIS
TREND...IT SEEMS THAT THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR PERSISTENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO VEER.  A FEW PLACES
MAY EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS TOO MARGINAL TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG
HEADLINES.  WILL MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

BY MID-MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BURN OFF...REVEALING
BLUE-BIRD SKIES THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER HIGH
WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 83-88 DEGREES.  OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL YET AGAIN...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE IT SEEMS A BIT MORE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.


&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP THINGS
WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND.  FLOW REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AS TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AS TROUGH INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE CANADIAN
BORDER...FLOW CURVATURE TO OUR WEST WILL INCREASE CYCLONICALLY FOR
MONDAY WITH NEAR ZONAL THROUGH TUE.  A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST
IN INTO THURSDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES.  THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE FRONT SHOULD SAG TO NEAR THE I20 CORRIDOR BEFORE
BECOMING DIFFUSE THOUGH TUESDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE A FAIR BIT
COOLER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD EVEN SET UP A SCENARIO FOR FIRST FREEZE
ON HALLOWEEN.  SPOOKY!  NEVERTHELESS...MODELS VARY A FAIR BIT BEYOND
DAY 4.  ALL IN ALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THINGS JUST DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD AT THIS
POINT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  47  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  52  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  53  86  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     83  51  85  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       84  53  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  51  84  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    83  52  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     88  58  92  59  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          86  55  89  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     86  58  90  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 240447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO
BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IN VISBYS IS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN MODELS. THE ABUNDANT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT VISBYS COULD DROP TO VLIFR AGAIN BY
DAYBREAK. LOW CIGS AND VISBYS WOULD LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 232316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO FOG AGAIN AT
EITHER TAF SITE BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWERED CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PATCHY THAN THURSDAY MORNING LEADING TO
LESS CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF. HOWEVER...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY
THAN LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 232010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SPREADING IN FROM OUR WEST WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STILL CONTENDING WITH DAMP
SURFACE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...WHICH WILL CREATE SOME FOG
OPPORTUNITY TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO
CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK BUT STILL SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT. HRRR
SOLUTIONS THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG AT LEAST...THOUGH WE DO NOT SEE INDICATIONS
IN THE LATEST RAP OR WRF/NAM RUNS. STILL...HRRR HAS DONE A VERY GOOD
JOB TODAY TO THIS POINT AND WE WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. LATER IN THE
NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWESTERN AREAS
WITH DIVERGENT TREND AND LESS RISK OF FOG AT THAT TIME. BETTER FOG
SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WOULD HOLD BIGGEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE
STRATUS BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY SHOULD BE GONE OR DISSOLVING
RAPIDLY AND A WARM DAY WILL LEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW LOWER 90S COULD EVEN MIX IN OFF THE CAPROCK. BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE BY LATE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS AND SURFACE
TROUGHING DEEPENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MONDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER WARM DAY AS BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS CONTINUE...BUT THE
APPROACHING MEAN WESTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MODEST DEEP LAYER
COOLING WHICH SHOULD KNOCK SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THE CAPROCK. AN INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TRACKING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THOUGH A ROGUE SPRINKLE OR VIRGA
SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BE CLOSER BY...BUT EVEN
HERE THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK VERY
GOOD AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS NEAR 10 PERCENT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL TROUGH PASSAGE AND USHER IN
AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN MONDAY NIGHT. MORE SEASONABLE LATE
OCTOBER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD SUPPLY A SECOND
WEAK COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  84  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  85  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  84  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  84  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  84  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   56  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  89  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 231746
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LARGE PATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS SLOWLY ERODING BUT LIKELY TO PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR MANY AREAS. WE UPDATED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT ALREADY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATE EROSION. BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY
ONCE THE CLOUDS ERODE SO CHOSE NOT TO UPDATE MAXIMUMS FOR TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS TRENDS WITH IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMARY
ISSUE. SLOW EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER KLBB ALTHOUGH THESE
FINALLY SHOULD DISSOLVE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING EARLY TONIGHT MAY
LEAD TO EARLY VISIBILITY DROP OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF KLBB BEFORE SURFACE FLOW VEERS AND DRIES SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. BEST STRATUS SIGNALS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TONIGHT ARE IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS SOUTH OF KCDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO KCDS OR WEST TO KLBB. WE WILL
INDICATE ONLY A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KCDS TONIGHT FOR
NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB IS MORE OR LESS AN ISLAND SURROUNDED BY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS EVIDENT LESS THAN 15 NM SW OF
THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
TERMINAL THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE. KCDS IS CURRENTLY
BELOW MINIMUMS. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS AT BOTH SITES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  84  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  83  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  83  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  84  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  89  57  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 231746
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LARGE PATCH OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS SLOWLY ERODING BUT LIKELY TO PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
FOR MANY AREAS. WE UPDATED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT ALREADY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATE EROSION. BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY
ONCE THE CLOUDS ERODE SO CHOSE NOT TO UPDATE MAXIMUMS FOR TODAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS TRENDS WITH IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMARY
ISSUE. SLOW EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER KLBB ALTHOUGH THESE
FINALLY SHOULD DISSOLVE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR THE MOST PART.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING EARLY TONIGHT MAY
LEAD TO EARLY VISIBILITY DROP OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF KLBB BEFORE SURFACE FLOW VEERS AND DRIES SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT. BEST STRATUS SIGNALS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TONIGHT ARE IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS SOUTH OF KCDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THAT
RESTRICTIONS MAY EXTEND NORTH INTO KCDS OR WEST TO KLBB. WE WILL
INDICATE ONLY A MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KCDS TONIGHT FOR
NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB IS MORE OR LESS AN ISLAND SURROUNDED BY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS EVIDENT LESS THAN 15 NM SW OF
THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
TERMINAL THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE. KCDS IS CURRENTLY
BELOW MINIMUMS. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS AT BOTH SITES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  84  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  83  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  83  54  83  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  84  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  82  55  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  84  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  89  57  89  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  86  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  86  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 231121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
KLBB IS MORE OR LESS AN ISLAND SURROUNDED BY IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS EVIDENT LESS THAN 15 NM SW OF
THE TERMINAL. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
TERMINAL THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN QUITE ELUSIVE. KCDS IS CURRENTLY
BELOW MINIMUMS. BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MID TO
LATE MORNING.  FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS AT BOTH SITES AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  51  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  56  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   79  55  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  57  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          82  58  86  57  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  59  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>044.

&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 230805
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  51  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  56  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   79  55  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  57  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          82  58  86  57  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  59  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.

&&

$$

26/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 230805
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY AS A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
OVERALL...THINGS ARE SETTLING DOWN TO BE TRANQUIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STRATUS DECK WHICH CAME IN LAST EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY SCATTER OUT
LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY.  GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AND FAIR SKIES WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...IT SHOULD NOT CAUSE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXITING OF THE UA TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE FA YESTERDAY...WILL MAKE WAY FOR AN UA RIDGE THAT WILL DRIFT
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THRU THE WEEKEND.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS PROMOTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH S-SW SFC WINDS WILL SET US UP FOR DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S /OR SOME 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORM/.

BY SUNDAY...THE UA RIDGE WILL COMMENCE TO SKIRT EAST OF THE
REGION...COURTESY OF A NW PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING ONSHORE AND
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING
NEARBY SFC TROUGH THUS PROMOTING BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE DISTURBANCE NEARS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
PER THE GFS. WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRECIP IS ALSO DEPICTED TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF ALSO MOVES THE
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PHASE WITH THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WHILST TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DISTURBANCE LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCE DEPICTED BY THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INHERITED
/NONMENTIONABLE/ POPS OF 10-15 PERCENT APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. WHAT
IS AGREED UPON HOWEVER IS THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL DROP TEMPS BACK BELOW NORM EARLY
NEXT WEEK /60S AND 70S/ AND EITHER AID IN ADDITIONAL PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT /PER THE ECMWF/ OR KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF
THE FA /PER THE GFS/.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHERE A COOL
PATTERN WILL ENSUE DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE /PER
THE GFS/ OR FLATTENED UA RIDGING GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS /PER THE ECMWF/. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHICH SOLUTION
WILL COME INTO FRUITION. THE INHERITED FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
COOLER SOLUTION /HIGHS TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 60S AND 70S/ AND
HENCE...WILL HOLD ON TO THIS THOUGHT PROCESS AND AWAIT MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  50  82  50  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         81  51  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     80  53  83  53  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  55  83  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  56  83  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   79  55  82  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     83  57  89  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          82  58  86  57  85 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  59  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.

&&

$$

26/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 230444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A REPRIEVE FROM LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS IS UNDERWAY AT KLBB AND
KCDS BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RETURN
WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOWERED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS WAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE REGION ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 230444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A REPRIEVE FROM LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS IS UNDERWAY AT KLBB AND
KCDS BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RETURN
WITH CONTINUED MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOWERED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. REDUCED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MENTION
IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS WAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE REGION ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 230316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1016 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS WAS ALREADY ENCOMPASSING THE REGION ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN QUICKLY WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF
REDUCED VISBYS TONIGHT. FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER CHANCES AT KLBB. THE DEGREE OF REDUCTION IS
UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CLEAR
OUT OF KLBB NEAR OR JUST AFTER 00Z WITH THESE CIGS STICKING AROUND
KCDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. SOME REDUCTION IN
VISBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS BUT WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY AS KLBB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAKENING CHANNELED VORTICITY CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WAS SWINGING
THROUGH JUST BEHIND. COMBINED LIFT AND PARTIAL THINNING OF CLOUDS
THUS A TOUCH OF WARMING APPEAR TO BE LEADING TO SOMEWHAT RENEWED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EASTERN
AREAS DURING THE EVENING. ANYWAY...THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER THROUGH EVENING FAVORING EASTERN AREAS.
AFTERWARDS WITH ANY CLEARING ON THE CAPROCK ESPECIALLY THERE WILL BE
A RISK OF FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE FURTHER WHILE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
SCOURING FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS WAVE. DEEPER DRYING IS EXPECTED
WITH DOMINANT MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY. LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ARE LIKELY TO TURN SUNNY AND WARMER WITH LITTLE
CONTENTION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE/HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER WEST TEXAS LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES...SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY BREEZES AND FULL INSOLATION WILL PROMOTE A NICE FALL
WARM UP...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. THESE WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN WINDS AS WESTERN TROUGHINESS
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND INDUCES PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY DAY WILL KICK OFF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODEST COOLING
WILL OCCUR AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS FALL MORE NOTABLY WITH THE
APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWEST
AND SHARPEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THIS SLOWER...DEEPER SOLUTION COMES
TO FRUITION...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO AT LEAST THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE
MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER WITH THIS EARLY WEEK WAVE AND WOULD KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED POPS IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING
AN EXPLICIT PRECIPITATION MENTION PENDING INCREASED MODEL-TO-
MODEL CONSISTENCY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR FOR
LATE OCTOBER. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS
AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THIS ITERATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        48  78  49  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  79  51  85  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     51  78  54  84  53 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       53  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   52  78  54  83  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  78  55  84  54 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  83  55  89  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          55  80  57  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  81  57  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99








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