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000
FXUS64 KLUB 242014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPA DATA SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL
JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.  DECENT CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  WITH THE RIDGE ON TOP OF US RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TOO FAR WEST AND EAST OF US...IT
APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE SLIM TO NONE.
RUC/HRRR/AND ARW-WEST ARE ALL STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM/GFS/TTU WRF KEEP THINGS DRY.
WILL GO WITH NO POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR MORNING LOWS FRIDAY.  HIGHS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
OVERDOING TEMPS BY 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  VERIFICATION
NUMBERS SHOW THAT BY FAR THE BEST PERFORMING FIELDS FOR TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN EITHER THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW OR WEIGHTED MODEL
FIELDS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE WEIGHTED MODELS FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.  THIS KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE CAPROCK
WITH 99 TO 102 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY START OFF HOT AND DRY...BUT WILL END
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT AS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED COURTESY OF AN UA LOW
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. DESPITE A
FLATTER UA RIDGE...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 27-32 DEGREES C SUGGEST HOT
TEMPS WILL ENDURE /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS/.
RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE UA RIDGE AND AID TO
IGNITE STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE PRECIP ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING...THOUGH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND ERN NEW
MEXICO.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL
DIVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUS CAUSING THE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. AS SUCH...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHARPEN. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION AND AS A
RESULT...IS QUICKER IN DEPICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND ARE A TAD SLOWER ON ALL COUNTS...THEREBY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIP IMPINGING ON THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HENCE...A FEW DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE HASHED OUT.
NONETHELESS...A COOLER AND WETTER TREND IS STILL BEING EXHIBITED
NEXT WEEK...AS MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO COULD
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A COLD PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS BEING
DEPICTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS ENDURING ABOVE 1.00
INCH...ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS COMMENCING SUNDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  98  66  98  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    68  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          70  99  69  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 242014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPA DATA SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL
JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.  DECENT CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  WITH THE RIDGE ON TOP OF US RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TOO FAR WEST AND EAST OF US...IT
APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE SLIM TO NONE.
RUC/HRRR/AND ARW-WEST ARE ALL STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM/GFS/TTU WRF KEEP THINGS DRY.
WILL GO WITH NO POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR MORNING LOWS FRIDAY.  HIGHS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
OVERDOING TEMPS BY 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  VERIFICATION
NUMBERS SHOW THAT BY FAR THE BEST PERFORMING FIELDS FOR TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN EITHER THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW OR WEIGHTED MODEL
FIELDS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE WEIGHTED MODELS FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.  THIS KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE CAPROCK
WITH 99 TO 102 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY START OFF HOT AND DRY...BUT WILL END
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT AS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED COURTESY OF AN UA LOW
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. DESPITE A
FLATTER UA RIDGE...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 27-32 DEGREES C SUGGEST HOT
TEMPS WILL ENDURE /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS/.
RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE UA RIDGE AND AID TO
IGNITE STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE PRECIP ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING...THOUGH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND ERN NEW
MEXICO.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL
DIVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUS CAUSING THE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. AS SUCH...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHARPEN. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION AND AS A
RESULT...IS QUICKER IN DEPICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND ARE A TAD SLOWER ON ALL COUNTS...THEREBY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIP IMPINGING ON THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HENCE...A FEW DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE HASHED OUT.
NONETHELESS...A COOLER AND WETTER TREND IS STILL BEING EXHIBITED
NEXT WEEK...AS MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO COULD
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A COLD PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS BEING
DEPICTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS ENDURING ABOVE 1.00
INCH...ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS COMMENCING SUNDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  98  66  98  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    68  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          70  99  69  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 241738 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLUB 241738 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLUB 241220
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
720 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 241220
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
720 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 240856
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01







000
FXUS64 KLUB 240856
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 240449
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR AND MOSTLY SKC AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO REMAIN S-SE AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93






000
FXUS64 KLUB 240449
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR AND MOSTLY SKC AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO REMAIN S-SE AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93







000
FXUS64 KLUB 232341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU THU EVNG AS A DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 10K FEET AGL SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ELY WINDS
THIS EVNG WILL VEER SLY BY DAYBREAK AND REMAIN AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THINGS ARE QUITE A BIT QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  CU FIELD IS MUCH LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL...ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION.  EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT CLIMBED AS MUCH AS COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE AS WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL RESULTING IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THANKS TO AN
OPPRESSIVE /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ UA RIDGE...WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH
IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THESE SCORCHING DAYTIME TEMPS
FOLLOWED BY RATHER WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COULD NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. A FEW
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID PERIOD. STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FA DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THE UA RIDGE COMMENCING TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS PROMOTING WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PLAUSIBILITY OF STORMS TO TRANSLATE FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO
NEAR/ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UA LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK...THEN SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT...HENCE SHOVING THE UA RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. THE UA LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
AS SUCH COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY MONDAY/.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILST SFC
WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. THIS COULD FURTHER
AID IN ENDURING STORM CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/. MEX GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD. THUS...THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93







000
FXUS64 KLUB 232341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU THU EVNG AS A DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 10K FEET AGL SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ELY WINDS
THIS EVNG WILL VEER SLY BY DAYBREAK AND REMAIN AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THINGS ARE QUITE A BIT QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  CU FIELD IS MUCH LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL...ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION.  EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT CLIMBED AS MUCH AS COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE AS WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL RESULTING IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THANKS TO AN
OPPRESSIVE /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ UA RIDGE...WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH
IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THESE SCORCHING DAYTIME TEMPS
FOLLOWED BY RATHER WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COULD NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. A FEW
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID PERIOD. STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FA DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THE UA RIDGE COMMENCING TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS PROMOTING WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PLAUSIBILITY OF STORMS TO TRANSLATE FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO
NEAR/ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UA LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK...THEN SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT...HENCE SHOVING THE UA RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. THE UA LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
AS SUCH COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY MONDAY/.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILST SFC
WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. THIS COULD FURTHER
AID IN ENDURING STORM CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/. MEX GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD. THUS...THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93








000
FXUS64 KLUB 232038
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THINGS ARE QUITE A BIT QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  CU FIELD IS MUCH LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL...ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION.  EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT CLIMBED AS MUCH AS COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE AS WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL RESULTING IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THANKS TO AN
OPPRESSIVE /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ UA RIDGE...WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH
IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THESE SCORCHING DAYTIME TEMPS
FOLLOWED BY RATHER WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COULD NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. A FEW
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID PERIOD. STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FA DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THE UA RIDGE COMMENCING TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS PROMOTING WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PLAUSIBILITY OF STORMS TO TRANSLATE FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO
NEAR/ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UA LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK...THEN SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT...HENCE SHOVING THE UA RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. THE UA LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
AS SUCH COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY MONDAY/.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILST SFC
WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. THIS COULD FURTHER
AID IN ENDURING STORM CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/. MEX GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD. THUS...THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 232038
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THINGS ARE QUITE A BIT QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  CU FIELD IS MUCH LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL...ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION.  EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT CLIMBED AS MUCH AS COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE AS WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL RESULTING IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THANKS TO AN
OPPRESSIVE /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ UA RIDGE...WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH
IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THESE SCORCHING DAYTIME TEMPS
FOLLOWED BY RATHER WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COULD NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. A FEW
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID PERIOD. STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FA DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THE UA RIDGE COMMENCING TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS PROMOTING WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PLAUSIBILITY OF STORMS TO TRANSLATE FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO
NEAR/ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UA LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK...THEN SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT...HENCE SHOVING THE UA RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. THE UA LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
AS SUCH COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY MONDAY/.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILST SFC
WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. THIS COULD FURTHER
AID IN ENDURING STORM CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/. MEX GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD. THUS...THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 231740 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  70 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99








000
FXUS64 KLUB 231740 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  70 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KLUB 231123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  71 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 231123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  71 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 230839
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  70 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01







000
FXUS64 KLUB 230839
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  70 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 230437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH LBB AND CDS FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK REMAINING
CELLS...LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. MUCH MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY CONTINUES FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED
STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THUS...UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE
MENTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT AT A FEW STORMS
MAY SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND THUS MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z.
BEYOND THIS TIME...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
HAVE DIMINISHED.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL.

SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  10   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  10   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 230437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH LBB AND CDS FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS HAVE DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK REMAINING
CELLS...LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. MUCH MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY CONTINUES FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED
STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THUS...UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE
MENTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT AT A FEW STORMS
MAY SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND THUS MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z.
BEYOND THIS TIME...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
HAVE DIMINISHED.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL.

SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  10   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  10   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16






000
FXUS64 KLUB 222348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK REMAINING
CELLS...LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. MUCH MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY CONTINUES FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED
STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THUS...UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT AT A FEW STORMS MAY SKIRT
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
THUS MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE
DIMINISHED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL.

SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 222348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS HAS DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK REMAINING
CELLS...LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
ACTIVITY. MUCH MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY CONTINUES FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED
STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THUS...UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE MENTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT AT A FEW STORMS MAY SKIRT
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND
THUS MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 06Z. BEYOND THIS
TIME...MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE
DIMINISHED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL.

SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99







000
FXUS64 KLUB 222303
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
603 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 222303
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
603 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS 00Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16






000
FXUS64 KLUB 222016
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 222016
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
316 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COMBINATION OF THINGS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT WERE
DRAPED ACROSS TWO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ONE EAST OF LUBBOCK ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND THE OTHER WEST OF LUBBOCK ALONG A
LEVELLAND TO SEAGRAVES LINE.  SECOND THING WAS AMPLE MOISTURE AT
BOTH 850 AND 700 HPA AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER LAPSE RATES AT KAMA COMPARED TO KMAF.  THIRD WAS
SEEN IN A 24 HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP...THE REMNANTS OF A THE LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS KS/OK/TX PANHANDLE YESTERDAY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLOSER TO HOME WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA.  THIS FEATURE MAY PROVIDE SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL LIFT THAT HELPED TO GET STORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF ON THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER
STORMS BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS AS WELL.

STEERING FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AT 500
HPA LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KTS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AROUND 250 HPA.  NORTH TO NORTHEAST 25 KT WIND IS HELPING TO
STEER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO PUSH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS TO
THE WEST AS WELL.  BIGGEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG STORMS
WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING AS POCKETS OF AIRMASS ARE STABILIZED BY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND NEW AREAS OF CONVECTION GENERATED ALONG
COLLIDING BOUNDARIES.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOSE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AND AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FORCING ALOFT MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA.  WILL CARRY SOME ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
FORCING FOR ANY CHANCE AT SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TOMORROW SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD OVER
THE REGION SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.  ONLY THING
THAT COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANY REMNANT CLOUD
COVER...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CLOUDS
BEING PRODUCED BY CURRENT STORMS ARE ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE REGION BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...AS IT WILL MORE OR LESS BE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE UA RIDGE FLATTENING A BIT DURING THE SAID
PERIOD...HOWEVER INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS...WHICH IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. HOT DAYS
FOLLOWED BY WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S/ DOES
RAISE CONCERNS FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CRITERIA.
EMBEDDED WEAKNESS WILL BE ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE AND AID IN IGNITING
STORMS NE OF THE FA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NE NEW MEXICO. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND
MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO IMPACT THE
REGION...THOUGH SOLUTIONS HINT AT PERHAPS NON-ZERO CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA LOW WHICH
SKIRTED EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL DIVE SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE WEST TO NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION /THUS NO LONGER
CENTERED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD/. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK/. FURTHERMORE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED...THIS WILL AID IN PROPAGATING STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FA AS HINTED AT BY LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. A LINGERING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  97  67  96  66 /  20   0  10   0   0
TULIA         66  97  68  97  68 /  20   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  96  69  96  68 /  20   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  69  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  98  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   70  97  70  97  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    69  98  70  98  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     72 101  73 101  73 /  10   0  10   0   0
SPUR          70  98  72 100  72 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 102  74 102  75 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 221728 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THROUGH
TOMORROW. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DYING A SLOW DEATH NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS
MORNING. A VERY WEAK OUTFLOW HAS EDGED THROUGH KLBB WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MODEST SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLUB 221728 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THROUGH
TOMORROW. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DYING A SLOW DEATH NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS
MORNING. A VERY WEAK OUTFLOW HAS EDGED THROUGH KLBB WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MODEST SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLUB 221021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DYING A SLOW DEATH NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS
MORNING. A VERY WEAK OUTFLOW HAS EDGED THROUGH KLBB WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MODEST SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 221021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DYING A SLOW DEATH NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER THIS
MORNING. A VERY WEAK OUTFLOW HAS EDGED THROUGH KLBB WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MODEST SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER CHANCES AGAIN LATER TODAY WILL REMAIN WEST OR
NORTHWEST OF BOTH LOCATIONS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/99







000
FXUS64 KLUB 220854
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
REMNANT SHOWERS AND CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THIS REGION HAS HAD MAXIMUM UPPER DIVERGENCE THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO
WHILE A MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOOKS LIKE A REAL
POSSIBILITY TO REMAIN NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER INTO THE MIDDAY
HEATING PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
TODAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO. UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
UNCHANGED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY...LINGERING
DEEP MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBLE MCV MENTIONED ABOVE WITH THE STRONG
HEATING SUPPORT ANOTHER LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AT LEAST
SOME PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. STEERING
FLOW...HOWEVER...WILL BE TURNED MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SO IF STORM
INITIATION PROVES TO BE MAINLY ON THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE STATE
LINE LATER TODAY THEY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER THAN RECENT DAYS OWING
TO THE MOISTURE ROLE...TEND TO THINK MOST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PLAYING
COOLING POTENTIAL TODAY GIVEN THE STAGNANT HEIGHT FIELD MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALOFT. MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...HOWEVER...CERTAINLY COULD TURN INTO A PROBLEM FOR WARMING.
ANYWAY...WE EDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR...WHILE CLOSELY RETAINING
PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS TO THE EAST. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE STORMS END
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT OUR REGION BEING MORE DISTANT FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS...THOUGH ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO OPPRESS THE AREA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND ELONGATE AS A
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THEN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOWER THAN OBSERVED
IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODELS DO AGREE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THESE WEAKNESSES. IT
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH WEST TEXAS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THICKNESSES
WILL RISE BY THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT...WE LOOK TO
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
AMPLIFICATION. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
DOWN A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS
AND GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE...STORMIER WEATHER WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  69  96  68  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  70  95  70  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  71  97  70  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  72  97  71  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   94  72  95  71  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  73  97  72 100 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          99  75  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    102  75 103  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 220450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER 20Z
TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO READJUST POPS AND TWEAK SEVERAL OTHER SHORT TERM
GRIDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A
DECENT LINE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAS CONGEALED FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE WAS GENERALLY
EDGING EASTWARD...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CLOVIS AND BOOTLEG. THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
20-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ASIDE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE OUTFLOW...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IS LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED AND DEVELOP IS IN QUESTION.
HENCE...WE HAVE REORIENTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE REMOVING THE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. IF STORMS CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WE DID TWEAK THE
DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16






000
FXUS64 KLUB 220450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH
06Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AFTER 20Z
TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO READJUST POPS AND TWEAK SEVERAL OTHER SHORT TERM
GRIDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A
DECENT LINE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAS CONGEALED FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE WAS GENERALLY
EDGING EASTWARD...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CLOVIS AND BOOTLEG. THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
20-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ASIDE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE OUTFLOW...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IS LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED AND DEVELOP IS IN QUESTION.
HENCE...WE HAVE REORIENTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE REMOVING THE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. IF STORMS CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WE DID TWEAK THE
DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 220226 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
926 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO READJUST POPS AND TWEAK SEVERAL OTHER SHORT TERM
GRIDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A
DECENT LINE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAS CONGEALED FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE WAS GENERALLY
EDGING EASTWARD...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CLOVIS AND BOOTLEG. THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
20-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ASIDE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE OUTFLOW...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IS LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED AND DEVELOP IS IN QUESTION.
HENCE...WE HAVE REORIENTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE REMOVING THE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. IF STORMS CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WE DID TWEAK THE
DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER 20Z TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/23








000
FXUS64 KLUB 220226 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
926 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO READJUST POPS AND TWEAK SEVERAL OTHER SHORT TERM
GRIDS. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON HAS LONG SINCE DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A
DECENT LINE OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS HAS CONGEALED FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE LINE WAS GENERALLY
EDGING EASTWARD...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CLOVIS AND BOOTLEG. THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES SHORTLY...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE
20-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ IN PLACE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THAT
SAID...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DOES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ASIDE
FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH THE OUTFLOW...LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
IS LACKING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THUS...HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED AND DEVELOP IS IN QUESTION.
HENCE...WE HAVE REORIENTED THE POP/WX GRIDS TO REFLECT A 15-25
PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE REMOVING THE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. IF STORMS CAN
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...THE SLOW STORM MOTION AND PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCHES COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THOUGH THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WE DID TWEAK THE
DEWPOINT...TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AFTER 20Z TUESDAY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT LBB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN PROGRESS ACROSS LEA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH PORTIONS OF
BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES FOLLOWING SUIT AS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE AND RADAR...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGING WITHIN A THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO CURRENTLY
POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TAPER OFF
DIURNALLY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ANEMIC UPPER LEVEL STEERING
FLOW...STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND COULD RESULT IN SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME SPOTS IN BAILEY-COCHRAN-YOAKUM COUNTIES
LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT
WITH WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR MOST.

TUESDAY WILL UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO TODAY...WARM START WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREMENTALLY HOTTER DAY WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100 THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AND ANOTHER
THERMAL LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL OF MORE COVERAGE...BUT SIMILAR TO
TODAY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW.

LONG TERM...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN BUT DESPITE
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...VERY HUMID AIR
REMAINS BENEATH THE RIDGE AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE
OF STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A VORTICITY
LOBE ROTATING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT/POTENTIAL. INTRODUCED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW
PANHANDLE TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS
AS IF IT WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE AND EVEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH NW FLOW RETURNING. STILL VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH IN THE 90S TO NEAR 104 IN THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW 105 SO NO HEAT
ADVISORY NEEDED ATTM. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY HOWEVER.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
ECMWF (00Z RUN) KEEPS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NE NM WHILE GFS MOVES UPPER
HIGH BACK TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS AREA IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. WITHOUT AN UPDATED ECMWF RUN TO VERIFY...BASED THIS FCST ON
12Z GFS SOLUTION WITH STRONGER NW FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO PANHANDLE. RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGH...WOULD INCREASE IN THAT SCENARIO...AND BUMPED UP POPS AND
CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY IN THAT TIME FRAME. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  67  96  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         71  96  69  98  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  95  69  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     72  97  71  99  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       73  98  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   72  96  72  97  71 /  10  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    73  97  73  98  72 /  10  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 100  73 103  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          74  98  73 101  73 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     75 103  75 103  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/23







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