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000
FXUS64 KLUB 272021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OF INTEREST CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
UT WITH EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX SITTING UNDER A PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING SUCKED INTO THE LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS NM ARE NOTICED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER OUR FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT.
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHANCE MENTION HAVING BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
WHILE THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE TO OUR WEST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT. AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO FIRE SHALLOW CONVECTION.
ONE NOTE OF INTEREST IS THE 15Z HRRR DEVELOPING A LINE SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS OBSERVED. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO FORM JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST PUTTING A MAJORITY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET HELPING PROMOTE DIVERGENCE. DUE TO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES SUB-LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. ONE ISSUE THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE FA WITH THE
FARTHEST EXTENT BEING ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMIT TO BROWNFIELD. CAA
WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS FRONT WITH TEMPS MODERATING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S. WITH THE FRONT BEING WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD NOT BE
TOO HUGE OF AN ISSUE WHICH WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM MELTING THE
PAVEMENT OFF OF ROADS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH NOTED ACROSS NERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTN...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR
PWATS TO INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE FA
WHICH COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL AID IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH MAY IMPINGE ON THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE...NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH COULD AID IN
CONTINUAL PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...UL SUPPORT WILL COMMENCE TO
DECLINE AS THE UA TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTN.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
MENTIONABLE POPS FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS NEAREST TO THE DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE APPEARS LOW AS A BIT OF A VEERING WIND
PROFILE LACKS SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS.

BY SATURDAY...RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS DISPLAY LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WASHED OUT/RETREATED NORTH...THE
LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT 10-14 POPS FOR NOW. A NEARBY
SFC TROUGH WILL PROMOTE BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHILST A BROAD UA LOW AFFECTING SRN CANADA/NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THE SAID UA SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS THE FAR SERN
TX PANHANDLE MONDAY...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A PRECIP FOCUS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SILENT POPS BEYOND FRIDAY ATTM...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF THIS TRENDS HOLDS FOR
NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
90S BY THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS OFF
THE CAPROCK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  40  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  40  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  91  67 /  30  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  20  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 272021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OF INTEREST CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
UT WITH EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX SITTING UNDER A PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING SUCKED INTO THE LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS NM ARE NOTICED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER OUR FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT.
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHANCE MENTION HAVING BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
WHILE THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE TO OUR WEST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT. AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO FIRE SHALLOW CONVECTION.
ONE NOTE OF INTEREST IS THE 15Z HRRR DEVELOPING A LINE SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS OBSERVED. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO FORM JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST PUTTING A MAJORITY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET HELPING PROMOTE DIVERGENCE. DUE TO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES SUB-LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. ONE ISSUE THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE FA WITH THE
FARTHEST EXTENT BEING ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMIT TO BROWNFIELD. CAA
WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS FRONT WITH TEMPS MODERATING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S. WITH THE FRONT BEING WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD NOT BE
TOO HUGE OF AN ISSUE WHICH WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM MELTING THE
PAVEMENT OFF OF ROADS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH NOTED ACROSS NERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTN...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR
PWATS TO INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE FA
WHICH COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL AID IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH MAY IMPINGE ON THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE...NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH COULD AID IN
CONTINUAL PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...UL SUPPORT WILL COMMENCE TO
DECLINE AS THE UA TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTN.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
MENTIONABLE POPS FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS NEAREST TO THE DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE APPEARS LOW AS A BIT OF A VEERING WIND
PROFILE LACKS SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS.

BY SATURDAY...RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS DISPLAY LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WASHED OUT/RETREATED NORTH...THE
LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT 10-14 POPS FOR NOW. A NEARBY
SFC TROUGH WILL PROMOTE BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHILST A BROAD UA LOW AFFECTING SRN CANADA/NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THE SAID UA SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS THE FAR SERN
TX PANHANDLE MONDAY...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A PRECIP FOCUS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SILENT POPS BEYOND FRIDAY ATTM...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF THIS TRENDS HOLDS FOR
NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
90S BY THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS OFF
THE CAPROCK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  40  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  40  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  91  67 /  30  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  20  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 271716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS
TONIGHT BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR -TSRA WILL EXIST NEAR BOTH
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATER AT CDS TOMORROW AFTER
12Z WITH A CHANCE STILL POSSIBLE AT LBB. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING...PRECIP MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE WITH THE TAFS BEING UPDATED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  87  58  87  61 /  40  30  30  30  20
TULIA         65  87  62  89  63 /  40  30  30  30  20
PLAINVIEW     65  87  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     65  88  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  90  66  91  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  92  65 /  20  30  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    66  91  64  92  66 /  20  30  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  91  69  91  70 /  20  40  40  30  30
SPUR          68  93  66  93  67 /  20  40  40  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  96  70 /  20  40  40  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51








000
FXUS64 KLUB 271716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS
TONIGHT BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR -TSRA WILL EXIST NEAR BOTH
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATER AT CDS TOMORROW AFTER
12Z WITH A CHANCE STILL POSSIBLE AT LBB. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING...PRECIP MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE WITH THE TAFS BEING UPDATED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  87  58  87  61 /  40  30  30  30  20
TULIA         65  87  62  89  63 /  40  30  30  30  20
PLAINVIEW     65  87  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     65  88  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  90  66  91  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  92  65 /  20  30  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    66  91  64  92  66 /  20  30  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  91  69  91  70 /  20  40  40  30  30
SPUR          68  93  66  93  67 /  20  40  40  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  96  70 /  20  40  40  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51







000
FXUS64 KLUB 271144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. COVERAGE OF -TSRA WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS...BUT A STORM IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. CHANCES OF A -TSRA
IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL MAY INCREASE TONIGHT. STRONG...ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AND LOW VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF RAIN SHAFTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY...SRLY
SURFACE WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  87  58  87 /  30  40  30  30  30
TULIA         89  65  87  62  89 /  30  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     89  65  87  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     89  65  88  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LUBBOCK       93  69  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   91  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
BROWNFIELD    92  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  91  69  91 /  20  20  40  40  30
SPUR          94  68  93  66  93 /  20  20  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     97  72  97  69  96 /  20  20  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 271144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. COVERAGE OF -TSRA WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS...BUT A STORM IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. CHANCES OF A -TSRA
IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL MAY INCREASE TONIGHT. STRONG...ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AND LOW VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF RAIN SHAFTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY...SRLY
SURFACE WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  87  58  87 /  30  40  30  30  30
TULIA         89  65  87  62  89 /  30  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     89  65  87  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     89  65  88  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LUBBOCK       93  69  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   91  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
BROWNFIELD    92  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  91  69  91 /  20  20  40  40  30
SPUR          94  68  93  66  93 /  20  20  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     97  72  97  69  96 /  20  20  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 270907
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  87  58  87 /  30  40  30  30  30
TULIA         89  65  87  62  89 /  30  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     89  65  87  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     89  65  88  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LUBBOCK       93  69  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   91  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
BROWNFIELD    92  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  91  69  91 /  20  20  40  40  30
SPUR          94  68  93  66  93 /  20  20  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     97  72  97  69  96 /  20  20  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 270907
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  87  58  87 /  30  40  30  30  30
TULIA         89  65  87  62  89 /  30  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     89  65  87  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     89  65  88  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LUBBOCK       93  69  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   91  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
BROWNFIELD    92  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  91  69  91 /  20  20  40  40  30
SPUR          94  68  93  66  93 /  20  20  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     97  72  97  69  96 /  20  20  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01







000
FXUS64 KLUB 270430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERHAPS
A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDER AT KCDS. ONCE AGAIN....TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
A STORM IMPACTING A GIVEN TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN
TAF ATTM.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  20  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  20  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  20  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  20  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 270430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERHAPS
A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDER AT KCDS. ONCE AGAIN....TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
A STORM IMPACTING A GIVEN TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN
TAF ATTM.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  20  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  20  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  20  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  20  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 262313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST NEAR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN....TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IMPACTING A GIVEN TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION IN TAF ATTM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 262313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST NEAR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN....TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IMPACTING A GIVEN TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION IN TAF ATTM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 262012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 262012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 261708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z AROUND
LBB...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL BE KEPT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IF AND WHEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS REASONABLE FOR KLBB...WHILE KCDS LOOKS EVEN MORE
OF A LONG-SHOT. SO WE WILL THUNDER OUT OF BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  89  61  86  60 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         64  92  64  89  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  89  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  92  69  90  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       68  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   65  92  69  91  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  93  70  91  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  97  71  93  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  95  73  94  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  98  73  95  70 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51









000
FXUS64 KLUB 261708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z AROUND
LBB...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL BE KEPT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IF AND WHEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS REASONABLE FOR KLBB...WHILE KCDS LOOKS EVEN MORE
OF A LONG-SHOT. SO WE WILL THUNDER OUT OF BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  89  61  86  60 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         64  92  64  89  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  89  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  92  69  90  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       68  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   65  92  69  91  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  93  70  91  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  97  71  93  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  95  73  94  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  98  73  95  70 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51








000
FXUS64 KLUB 261130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IF AND WHEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS REASONABLE FOR KLBB...WHILE KCDS LOOKS EVEN MORE
OF A LONG-SHOT. SO WE WILL THUNDER OUT OF BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  62  89  61  86 /  30  20  30  30  30
TULIA         93  64  92  64  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     93  64  92  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     91  65  92  69  90 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       94  69  93  69  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   93  65  92  69  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    94  66  93  70  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     99  74  97  71  93 /  10  10  10  20  40
SPUR          97  69  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  20  40
ASPERMONT    100  74  98  73  95 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 261130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IF AND WHEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS REASONABLE FOR KLBB...WHILE KCDS LOOKS EVEN MORE
OF A LONG-SHOT. SO WE WILL THUNDER OUT OF BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  62  89  61  86 /  30  20  30  30  30
TULIA         93  64  92  64  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     93  64  92  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     91  65  92  69  90 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       94  69  93  69  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   93  65  92  69  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    94  66  93  70  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     99  74  97  71  93 /  10  10  10  20  40
SPUR          97  69  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  20  40
ASPERMONT    100  74  98  73  95 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 260911
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  62  89  61  86 /  30  20  30  30  30
TULIA         93  64  92  64  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     93  64  92  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     91  65  92  69  90 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       94  68  93  69  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   93  65  92  69  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    94  66  93  70  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     99  74  97  71  93 /  10  10  10  20  40
SPUR          97  69  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  20  40
ASPERMONT    100  74  98  73  95 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 260442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN PNHDL WITH
A SMALL GROUP POSSIBLY IMPACTING KCDS TERMINAL AT ISSUANCE. ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE TOO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUE WITH MORE SCT CLOUDS IN THE
AFTN WITH ANY POTENTIAL CIGS VFR. BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFT WELL N
OF BOTH TERMINALS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE OR
REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD SPARK MORE ISOLD STORMS. VRBL WINDS THROUGH
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SERLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO ROAM
THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO HANGING
ON...THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST
MID-LEVELS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LINGERING MCV OR TWO. HENCE...WE HAVE EXTENDED MINIMAL STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR SPOTS UP ON THE
CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24






000
FXUS64 KLUB 260442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN PNHDL WITH
A SMALL GROUP POSSIBLY IMPACTING KCDS TERMINAL AT ISSUANCE. ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE TOO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUE WITH MORE SCT CLOUDS IN THE
AFTN WITH ANY POTENTIAL CIGS VFR. BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFT WELL N
OF BOTH TERMINALS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE OR
REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD SPARK MORE ISOLD STORMS. VRBL WINDS THROUGH
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SERLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO ROAM
THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO HANGING
ON...THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST
MID-LEVELS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LINGERING MCV OR TWO. HENCE...WE HAVE EXTENDED MINIMAL STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR SPOTS UP ON THE
CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KLUB 260309 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO ROAM
THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO HANGING
ON...THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST
MID-LEVELS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LINGERING MCV OR TWO. HENCE...WE HAVE EXTENDED MINIMAL STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR SPOTS UP ON THE
CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

..AVIATION...
CONCERNS OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL CONTINUES TO WANE
AS ADVANCING OUTFLOWS FAIL TO PRODUCE NEW STORMS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SCT LOW-MID CLOUD
IN WITH NON-ZERO THREAT OF CB DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OR TUE AFTN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY
OUTFLOW THAT DOES MANAGE TO PASS THE TERMINAL. KCDS FURTHER
REMOVED FM ACTIVITY BUT ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND
ISSUANCE TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 260309 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO ROAM
THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO HANGING
ON...THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST
MID-LEVELS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LINGERING MCV OR TWO. HENCE...WE HAVE EXTENDED MINIMAL STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR SPOTS UP ON THE
CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

..AVIATION...
CONCERNS OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL CONTINUES TO WANE
AS ADVANCING OUTFLOWS FAIL TO PRODUCE NEW STORMS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SCT LOW-MID CLOUD
IN WITH NON-ZERO THREAT OF CB DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OR TUE AFTN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY
OUTFLOW THAT DOES MANAGE TO PASS THE TERMINAL. KCDS FURTHER
REMOVED FM ACTIVITY BUT ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND
ISSUANCE TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 252338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...AVIATION...
CONCERNS OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL CONTINUES TO WANE
AS ADVANCING OUTFLOWS FAIL TO PRODUCE NEW STORMS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SCT LOW-MID CLOUD
IN WITH NON-ZERO THREAT OF CB DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OR TUE AFTN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY
OUTFLOW THAT DOES MANAGE TO PASS THE TERMINAL. KCDS FURTHER
REMOVED FM ACTIVITY BUT ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND
ISSUANCE TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  10   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51/24







000
FXUS64 KLUB 252338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...AVIATION...
CONCERNS OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL CONTINUES TO WANE
AS ADVANCING OUTFLOWS FAIL TO PRODUCE NEW STORMS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SCT LOW-MID CLOUD
IN WITH NON-ZERO THREAT OF CB DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OR TUE AFTN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY
OUTFLOW THAT DOES MANAGE TO PASS THE TERMINAL. KCDS FURTHER
REMOVED FM ACTIVITY BUT ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND
ISSUANCE TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  10   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51/24






000
FXUS64 KLUB 251906
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH.  A DROPPING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE SURFACE
PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT/S AND
THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES.  IN GENERAL...WEAK CONVERGENGE IS
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD OF ALTOCU HAS
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.  PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  30  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  30  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  30  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  20  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51







000
FXUS64 KLUB 251906
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH.  A DROPPING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE SURFACE
PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT/S AND
THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES.  IN GENERAL...WEAK CONVERGENGE IS
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD OF ALTOCU HAS
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.  PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  30  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  30  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  30  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  20  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51








000
FXUS64 KLUB 251727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR TSTMS APPEARS TO EXIST AT KLBB FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ISO RASH HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL INVOF ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
AN MCV OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT CONVECTION SUSTAINED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BASICALLY NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF KLBB AND
DRIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST AT KLBB THAN AT KCDS. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL GOING CLOSE TO KCDS BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  70  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  30  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 251727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR TSTMS APPEARS TO EXIST AT KLBB FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ISO RASH HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL INVOF ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
AN MCV OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT CONVECTION SUSTAINED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BASICALLY NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF KLBB AND
DRIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST AT KLBB THAN AT KCDS. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL GOING CLOSE TO KCDS BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  70  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  30  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 251112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AN MCV OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT CONVECTION SUSTAINED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BASICALLY NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF KLBB AND
DRIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST AT KLBB THAN AT KCDS. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL GOING CLOSE TO KCDS BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  70  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  30  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 251112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AN MCV OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT CONVECTION SUSTAINED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BASICALLY NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF KLBB AND
DRIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST AT KLBB THAN AT KCDS. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL GOING CLOSE TO KCDS BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  70  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  30  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 250952
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  71  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 250952
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  71  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 250433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TSRA ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN AROUND 12
KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/WX/QPF GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
BETTER CORRESPOND TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST NOTABLY...
INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE AND LIKELY CATEGORIES ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A POORLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES. WE EXPECT AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE UNSTABLY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FORCING WANES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KLBB AND KCDS MAY ESCAPE ANY
-TSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE. ALSO...SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SRLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  20   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  60   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 250433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TSRA ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY BUT REMAIN AROUND 12
KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/WX/QPF GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
BETTER CORRESPOND TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST NOTABLY...
INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE AND LIKELY CATEGORIES ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A POORLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES. WE EXPECT AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE UNSTABLY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FORCING WANES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KLBB AND KCDS MAY ESCAPE ANY
-TSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE. ALSO...SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SRLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  20   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  60   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 250025 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/WX/QPF GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
BETTER CORRESPOND TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST NOTABLY...
INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE AND LIKELY CATEGORIES ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A POORLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES. WE EXPECT AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE UNSTABLY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FORCING WANES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KLBB AND KCDS MAY ESCAPE ANY
-TSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE. ALSO...SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SRLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  20  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  30   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  20   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 250025 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/WX/QPF GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
BETTER CORRESPOND TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOST NOTABLY...
INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE AND LIKELY CATEGORIES ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A POORLY ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES. WE EXPECT AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE UNSTABLY AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN FORCING WANES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KLBB AND KCDS MAY ESCAPE ANY
-TSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE. ALSO...SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SRLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  20  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  30   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  20   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 242336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KLBB AND KCDS MAY ESCAPE ANY
-TSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE. ALSO...SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SRLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  20   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 242336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT KLBB AND KCDS MAY ESCAPE ANY
-TSRA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE. ALSO...SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SRLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DESPITE OF A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND VERY
LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AN ADEQUATE BOOST IN THETA-E EARLIER
TODAY SUPPLIED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTORMS. NON-HIGH RES MODELS HAVE LARGELY
MISSED THE BOAT SO FAR TODAY WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL MODELS PLAYING
THE ROLE OF THE DARK HORSE. RAP DATA SHOW THE RICHEST PWATS OF 1.3
INCHES CONFINED EAST OF A BROWNFIELD TO SILVERTON LINE WITH
GENERALLY ONE INCH OR LESS FARTHER WEST. ENVIRONMENT IN THE RICHER
PWATS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES OF 1200-2500 J/KG WITH WEAK SHEAR.
THIS THEME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-EVENING AT WHICH POINT TSTORMS
WILL DWINDLE...BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO PERHAPS
BRIEFLY SEVERE PULSE MODES WITH MICROBURSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

BY MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE TUGGED NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO AROUND THE ZONAL RIDGE AXIS STILL POISED FIRMLY OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS. HEIGHT FIELDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
RIDGE ARE NOT SHOWN TO BUILD ANY...SO THE OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLAR-POWERED TSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
WHERE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM
CHIHUAHUA. OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE WARMER SPECTRUM
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN THE RECENT OBSERVED
TRENDS.

LONG TERM...
COOLER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS WELL AS A SHOT FOR RAIN. BUT BEFORE
WE GET THERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE US AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAKNESS
PROPAGATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKNESS MAKES
USE OF A SURFACE TROF LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE AND
FIRES SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. CHANCES ARE ONLY SLIGHT
AS THE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ONLY COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA
WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE TROF. BY TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST BUILDS FURTHER WEST INHIBITING
CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN...HOWEVER A LOW AWAITS US OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS READY TO MOVE IN AND DEFEAT THE EVIL RIDGE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THE LOW THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE 12Z RUN YIELDED THE
GFS SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THE LOW WILL INITIALLY START OFF CLOSED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING WHICH TIME
IT WILL SLOWLY BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS SOMEWHAT
IN QUESTION WITH TIMINGS RANGING FROM EARLY TO LATE THURSDAY...WITH
THURSDAY MORNING BEING THE TIMING CHOICE FOR THE TIME BEING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. PWATS OVER 1.3 INCHES WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AID IN MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM
THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS OF NOW THE JET MAX IS
GREATEST OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT
UPPER PATTERN SHOULD BE MORE THAN EFFICIENT IN DEVELOPING PRECIP.
THE LOW WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED VISIT AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY BEFORE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL IN THE SENSE OF TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
COOLER THAN THEY WILL BE EARLIER THIS WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AS COOL AIR OVER MT INTO CA WILL BE PUSHED
SOUTHWARD. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...PARTS OF INTERIOR MT HAVE FAILED
TO REACH INTO THE 50S. AS OF NOW THE COOLEST AIR WITH THE FRONT
LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FORECAST BEING IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  92  63  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         69  95  65  93  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  95  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  65  91  64 /  10  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  96  68  94  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  95  65  92  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  72  98  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70 100  68  96  68 /  20   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     75 102  72  99  71 /  10   0  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33







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