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000
FXUS64 KLUB 030006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BY-PASSED KLBB WHILE
REMAINING FAR WEST OF KCDS THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OTHER THAN A RISK FOR AN IFR/MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 030006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BY-PASSED KLBB WHILE
REMAINING FAR WEST OF KCDS THIS EVENING. VFR EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
OTHER THAN A RISK FOR AN IFR/MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 022231
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 022231
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
531 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS BEST-GUESS...BUT GIVE SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS SOME CREDIT. WE HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW COVERAGE THUNDER
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. 1500-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM OF
CONVECTIVE ENERGY BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR CONTRIBUTING TO BRIEF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND BRIEF MOSTLY WEAK HAIL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD TAKE ON BETTER NORTHERLY DRIFT...THOUGH BELIEVE
MOST ACTIVITY WILL RELENT BY DARK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  20   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  20   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /  20   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       72  93  68  92  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /  20   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /  20   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99







000
FXUS64 KLUB 022006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  10   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       71  93  68  92  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/16






000
FXUS64 KLUB 022006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. RADAR IS QUIET
ATTM BUT SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK IN AN AREA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. SOME VERY
MODEST LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THIS
AREA MAY NOT HELP TOO MUCH BUT CERTAINLY WILL NOT HURT. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A MORTON TO TULIA LINE
WITH WEAK CONFLUENCE IN ITS VICINITY BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS ABOUT 5
DEGREES LOWER THAN IN THE FORMER AREA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TWO AREAS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z WRF-NAM
HIGHLIGHTS THE LATTER WHILE RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR FEATURES THE
FORMER. EITHER WAY WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE ANYTHING
OTHER THAN SMALL-SCALE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH AREAL COVERAGE NOT
WARRANTING MENTION IN THE ZONE FCST ATTM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PRECIP WITH
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS NEAR WARMER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THIS ITERATION...AS
A MUTED COOLING TREND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY WET WEEKEND
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH...INCLUDING WEST TEXAS.  WHILE THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...GRADUALLY DROPPING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREMENTALLY FALL BACK TO A MORE REASONABLE UPPER
80S ON THE SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 90S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS...SENDING A
MODEST COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT LEAST
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  MEANWHILE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE...POSSIBLY
WITH A CONNECTION TO REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD AS IT
GETS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH.  ALL OF THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND
POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DEPENDING ON A FEW FACTORS.
THE MOST PROMINENT OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AS THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS APART IN THIS REGARD.  THE GFS INDICATES A
SLOWER...WEAKER FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THIS FRONT INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY...AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY WELL THROUGH THE CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY.  THE LATTER SOLUTION NOT SURPRISINGLY DEVELOPS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON THE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL
REMOVED FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS
LATITUDE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND
HIGHLIGHT LATE SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS.  LIKEWISE...LOW END POPS
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THAT IN THIS SLOWER
SCENARIO REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE COMPOUNDED FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AND STABILIZING
OUTFLOWS.

BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE COLUMN DRIES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  92  62  90  62 /  10   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  93  66  91  66 /  10   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  93  66  90  66 /  10   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  92  66  90  67 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       71  93  68  92  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  91  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  67  90  67 /   0   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     75  97  75  96  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          73  97  72  94  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 021732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE REMAINS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPING
NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PULL UPSTATIONARY SOUTH OF
A CLOVIS TO AMARILLO LINE. SUPPRESSION FROM UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOR THE MOST PART HELP THE CAPPING INVERSION REMAIN
STRONG...BUT MODELS STILL HAVE A WEAK SIGNAL OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
LONG STORY SHORT IS COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...IF ANY AT
ALL...AND WILL KEEP OUT OF BOTH TAFS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS MAKING A RUN INTO
THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WILL GET THE BALL ROLLING BY INSERTING
A TEMPO MVFR MENTION IN THE KLBB TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 20 UTC AND
03 UTC. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TEMPORARY WIND
SHIFT AT KCDS AROUND 14-15 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 021732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE REMAINS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER DEVELOPING
NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PULL UPSTATIONARY SOUTH OF
A CLOVIS TO AMARILLO LINE. SUPPRESSION FROM UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOR THE MOST PART HELP THE CAPPING INVERSION REMAIN
STRONG...BUT MODELS STILL HAVE A WEAK SIGNAL OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
LONG STORY SHORT IS COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...IF ANY AT
ALL...AND WILL KEEP OUT OF BOTH TAFS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS MAKING A RUN INTO
THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. WILL GET THE BALL ROLLING BY INSERTING
A TEMPO MVFR MENTION IN THE KLBB TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 20 UTC AND
03 UTC. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TEMPORARY WIND
SHIFT AT KCDS AROUND 14-15 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 021139
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 20 UTC AND
03 UTC. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TEMPORARY WIND
SHIFT AT KCDS AROUND 14-15 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  69  91 /  10  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 021139
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL BETWEEN ABOUT 20 UTC AND
03 UTC. IN ADDITION...A WEAK FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TEMPORARY WIND
SHIFT AT KCDS AROUND 14-15 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  69  91 /  10  10   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 020855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 020855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
3 AM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH ISN/T SURPRISING GIVEN
THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE AREA ON LABOR DAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR I-40...AND THERE WAS EVEN AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE OKLA AND NRN TX
PANHANDLES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...WITH ONLY A WEAK REFLECTION INTO THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME SWD PROGRESS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SPLNS. THIS IN TURN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEAKLY CONVERGENT ZONE FROM THE
CENTRAL SPLNS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...WE/LL HAVE
TO RELY ON SURFACE-BASED LIFT TO GENERATE ANY MOIST CONVECTION
TODAY. KLBB FCST SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKLY CAPPED PROFILE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NO CAP REMAINING FARTHER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE
06 UTC HRRR AND RAP RUNS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
THE SREF...WHICH SOMEWHAT BULLSEYES THE CAPROCK CANYONS AREA. WE
WILL RUN WITH A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF T-STORMS...CENTERED ACROSS
BRISCOE COUNTY...AND ROUGHLY EXTENDING WEST TO I-27 AND SOUTH TO
NEAR HWY 82. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MORE THAN
PULSE-TYPE NON-SEVERE STORMS...BUT ML CAPES NEARING 2000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A BRIEF
DOWNPOUR. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS COULD INVADE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY WED
MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS...FORTUNATELY WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAT OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS BACK DOWN A BIT...ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE DUE TO THE
WEAK FRONT/S INFLUENCE...WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A WELCOME COOLING TREND EARLY ON WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

INITIALLY...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LONGITUDINALLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
WILL HOLD SWAY OVER WEST TEXAS MID/LATE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND WARM WEATHER...THOUGH DECREASING 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMISE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND.
THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERESTING LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND THOUGH THIS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER
OR NOT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS CAN SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS FIRST RUN SOUTHWARD
BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE NATION AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENT NWP
HOLDS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY...AS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY REMNANTS OF DOLLY
AND A TAP OFF A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET TO FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/ ARE FUNNELED AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED TO NORTH AND WEST
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WE HAVE DECREASED POPS SOMEWHAT
OVER THIS PERIOD.

THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED CLOSE ENOUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MAKE IT A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL FULLY BE ABLE TO TAP THE SUB-TROPICAL
AND TROPICAL MOISTURE. EVEN SO...THE NWP SUGGESTS THE OUTFLOW
AIDED FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND /AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF OR NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS/. REGARDLESS...IF THE FRONT CAN MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA IT WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG WITH
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS...WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND HAVE MAINTAINED
THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT RESIDING SOMEWHERE LOCALLY.

THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES
FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A WESTERN STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  64  93  64  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         95  67  94  66  90 /  20  10  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  66  93  67  90 /  20  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     95  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  70  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  67  93  67  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  68  93  68  90 /  10  10   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     98  72  97  73  96 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          97  69  96  71  93 /  10  10   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     98  73  98  73  96 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. TSTM CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 10 PCT AT
EITHER TERMINAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING QUITE STRONG GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 020447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. TSTM CHANCES GENERALLY BELOW 10 PCT AT
EITHER TERMINAL ON TUESDAY THOUGH ANY STORM WHICH FORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING QUITE STRONG GIVEN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.
CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /   0  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. PERHAPS LESS THAN
10 PCT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A TSTM AFFECT THE CDS TERMINAL THIS
EVENING AND OR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
BIT BREEZY LAT THIS EVENING THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 012336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. PERHAPS LESS THAN
10 PCT CHANCE WE COULD SEE A TSTM AFFECT THE CDS TERMINAL THIS
EVENING AND OR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
BIT BREEZY LAT THIS EVENING THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26








000
FXUS64 KLUB 012026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/55






000
FXUS64 KLUB 012026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HOT AFTERNOON UNDERWAY WITH A SURFACE HEAT LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. LUBBOCK ALREADY HAS SURPASSED ITS PREVIOUS DAILY
RECORD WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD A COUPLE MORE DEGREES. DRY-LINE
STILL FAIRLY DIFFUSE STRETCHING FROM TAHOKA THROUGH MATADOR INTO
DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT VICINITY OF PALO DURO CANYON. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES HAS HUNG
UP THIS VICINITY THOUGH DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH THE WIND FLOW
AROUND THE HEAT LOW. BUT AREAS NORTH OF TULIA TO MULESHOE LINE ARE
YET A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH AND PROBABLY CLOSE TO THAT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY DRY AND WARM AIRMASS WAS ALOFT AND WE HAVE
NOT YET SEEN A CUMULUS FIELD FILLING IN THROUGH THE DRY-LINE OR
SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST NOW
REACHING 100 DEGREES SO SHOULD SEE BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF VERY
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
STILL SUPPORT SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE DRY-LINE FAVORING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS ALREADY INDICATED.
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN EAST OF THE DRY-LINE GIVING
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATELY HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...WHILE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MOST FAVORABLE NEAR 30 KNOTS
JUST CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. SO WE STILL CONSIDER THERE TO BE
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AS WELL SHOULD STORMS GET GOING. WE HAVE
RETAINED PREVIOUS COVERAGE AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
JET THEN GET A WEAKER SHOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE MORE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
LESS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT DIP
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT HIGHS AROUND
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER CONDITIONAL
THUNDER CHANCE WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTH-CENTRAL
AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE MAIN
LIMITERS. BUT HEATING ONCE MORE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING SO HAVE RETAINED THAT PREVIOUS LOW MENTION.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING THAT SHOWS HINTS OF BEGINNING TO ERODE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY...WE REMAIN DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

BY LATE THURSDAY A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE EAST OUT
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WHEN
AIDED BY MOISTURE FETCH FROM A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA BAJA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN RIDGING
PATTERN ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 31/00Z ECMWF INDICATED PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST...GFS
RUNS SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT...REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY LIFTING THE
TROUGH NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS BUT 01/12Z
GFS DEEPENED THE TROUGH AND SLOWED ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE
WITH ECMWF...AN ENCOURAGING DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE 01/12Z ECMWF
DEEPENED THE PACIFIC TROUGH EVEN MORE...RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE 6DAY/7DAY TIME FRAME HAVE NOT INCREASED POPS FROM SLIGHT &
ISOLATED WHILE FULLY RECOGNIZING THE TREND IS FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS AT SOME POINT NEXT
WEEKEND...A QUICK PEEK BEYOND EVEN THE WEEKEND HAS BOTH MODELS
HINTING TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH ABSORBING THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE BAJA WHICH WOULD HAVE WET IMPLICATIONS FOR US AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  93  63  93  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         69  95  66  93  65 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     69  95  67  93  66 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     68  95  66  92  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       73  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  92  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  66  93  67 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     75  98  72  96  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          73  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  99  74  96  72 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/55







000
FXUS64 KLUB 011756
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR KLBB TODAY WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING UNDERWAY. SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL HOLD NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
KCDS BEFORE RETREATING WESTWARD AFTER 00Z. THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRY-LINE IS LOW
TODAY ALTHOUGH SHOULD THIS OCCUR THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
IMPACT AT KCDS...FEEL CHANCES CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR MENTION. A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER KLBB WHICH
INITIALLY WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE JET LIFTS
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EVENT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH STILL
IN UNLIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INTERRUPTION TO
THIS COULD BE PROVIDED BY AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORM AROUND
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES FOR
THIS ARE LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY
WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CONUS...INCLUDING SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WAS PROVIDING
THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION FROM THE LAND OF 10,000 LAKES THROUGH THE
SUNFLOWER STATE. MORE JET ENERGY WAS ALSO NOTED RACING OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING WHERE IT WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT LINGERING IN THE PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT/FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE.

HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
OF 08Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BEGINS LOOSING DEFINITION WHILE A THERMAL LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. DRY WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AND COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION IT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. IT APPEARS
THE RECORD AT LUBBOCK /99 DEGREES...LAST TOUCHED LAST YEAR/ WILL
AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH MANY SPOTS AGAIN EXPERIENCING HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DECAYING FRONT AND LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THE STRONG HEATING/THERMALS MAY BE ABLE
TO BREACH THE CAP WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND TIGHTENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT A LITTLE GREATER THAN
YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SHOWING
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. HENCE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO
INCLUDE A LOW CONDITIONAL STORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST FROM
21-06Z...PRIMARILY FOR BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SBCAPES
OF 1500+ J/KG COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...THOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY
MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...MOIST SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT LOCALLY.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF ACUTE WARMTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F AGAIN IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NW CWA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. WED AND THU SHOULD
BRING PRETTY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL TX...WITH OUR CWA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE /POSSIBLY TIED
TO A TROPICAL WAVE/ UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW STRATUS INVADING FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS WED MORNING.
BUT LACK OF ANY LIFT SHOULD KEEP POPS VERY LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS STILL DEVELOPING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDE A RICH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR SRN BAJA...AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING A LOW-LVL FOCUS. THE 00 UTC GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
/IN CONTRAST TO IT/S PREVIOUS 12 UTC RUN/. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE PROJECTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO OF
STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD...IT KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND THE
DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF PROG...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  91  63  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  94  66  93  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  93  65 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     67  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       71  96  70  93  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  97  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  97  66  93  66 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     74  98  72  97  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          71  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     73  99  74  96  73 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 011756
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR KLBB TODAY WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING UNDERWAY. SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL HOLD NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
KCDS BEFORE RETREATING WESTWARD AFTER 00Z. THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DRY-LINE IS LOW
TODAY ALTHOUGH SHOULD THIS OCCUR THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF
IMPACT AT KCDS...FEEL CHANCES CURRENTLY TOO LOW FOR MENTION. A
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER KLBB WHICH
INITIALLY WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE JET LIFTS
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EVENT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH STILL
IN UNLIKELY CATEGORY FOR THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INTERRUPTION TO
THIS COULD BE PROVIDED BY AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORM AROUND
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES FOR
THIS ARE LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY
WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CONUS...INCLUDING SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WAS PROVIDING
THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION FROM THE LAND OF 10,000 LAKES THROUGH THE
SUNFLOWER STATE. MORE JET ENERGY WAS ALSO NOTED RACING OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING WHERE IT WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT LINGERING IN THE PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT/FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE.

HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
OF 08Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BEGINS LOOSING DEFINITION WHILE A THERMAL LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. DRY WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AND COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION IT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. IT APPEARS
THE RECORD AT LUBBOCK /99 DEGREES...LAST TOUCHED LAST YEAR/ WILL
AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH MANY SPOTS AGAIN EXPERIENCING HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DECAYING FRONT AND LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THE STRONG HEATING/THERMALS MAY BE ABLE
TO BREACH THE CAP WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND TIGHTENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT A LITTLE GREATER THAN
YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SHOWING
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. HENCE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO
INCLUDE A LOW CONDITIONAL STORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST FROM
21-06Z...PRIMARILY FOR BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SBCAPES
OF 1500+ J/KG COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...THOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY
MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...MOIST SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT LOCALLY.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF ACUTE WARMTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F AGAIN IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NW CWA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. WED AND THU SHOULD
BRING PRETTY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL TX...WITH OUR CWA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE /POSSIBLY TIED
TO A TROPICAL WAVE/ UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW STRATUS INVADING FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS WED MORNING.
BUT LACK OF ANY LIFT SHOULD KEEP POPS VERY LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS STILL DEVELOPING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDE A RICH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR SRN BAJA...AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING A LOW-LVL FOCUS. THE 00 UTC GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
/IN CONTRAST TO IT/S PREVIOUS 12 UTC RUN/. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE PROJECTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO OF
STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD...IT KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND THE
DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF PROG...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  91  63  92  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  94  66  93  66 /  10  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  93  65 /  10  10  20   0  10
LEVELLAND     67  96  66  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       71  96  70  93  68 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  97  66  92  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  97  66  93  66 /  10  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     74  98  72  97  72 /  20  10  10  10   0
SPUR          71  97  72  95  70 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     73  99  74  96  73 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 011129
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INTERRUPTION TO
THIS COULD BE PROVIDED BY AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORM AROUND
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES FOR
THIS ARE LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY
WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CONUS...INCLUDING SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WAS PROVIDING
THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION FROM THE LAND OF 10,000 LAKES THROUGH THE
SUNFLOWER STATE. MORE JET ENERGY WAS ALSO NOTED RACING OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING WHERE IT WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT LINGERING IN THE PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT/FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE.

HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
OF 08Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BEGINS LOOSING DEFINITION WHILE A THERMAL LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. DRY WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AND COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION IT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. IT APPEARS
THE RECORD AT LUBBOCK /99 DEGREES...LAST TOUCHED LAST YEAR/ WILL
AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH MANY SPOTS AGAIN EXPERIENCING HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DECAYING FRONT AND LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THE STRONG HEATING/THERMALS MAY BE ABLE
TO BREACH THE CAP WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND TIGHTENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT A LITTLE GREATER THAN
YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SHOWING
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. HENCE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO
INCLUDE A LOW CONDITIONAL STORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST FROM
21-06Z...PRIMARILY FOR BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SBCAPES
OF 1500+ J/KG COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...THOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY
MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...MOIST SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT LOCALLY.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF ACUTE WARMTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F AGAIN IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NW CWA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. WED AND THU SHOULD
BRING PRETTY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL TX...WITH OUR CWA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE /POSSIBLY TIED
TO A TROPICAL WAVE/ UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW STRATUS INVADING FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS WED MORNING.
BUT LACK OF ANY LIFT SHOULD KEEP POPS VERY LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS STILL DEVELOPING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDE A RICH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR SRN BAJA...AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING A LOW-LVL FOCUS. THE 00 UTC GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
/IN CONTRAST TO IT/S PREVIOUS 12 UTC RUN/. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE PROJECTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO OF
STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD...IT KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND THE
DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF PROG...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        97  62  91  63  92 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         98  66  94  66  93 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     98  67  95  67  93 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND    100  67  96  66  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK      101  70  96  70  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY  101  67  97  66  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD   102  68  97  66  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS    101  74  98  72  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR         100  71  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT    101  73  98  74  96 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 011129
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INTERRUPTION TO
THIS COULD BE PROVIDED BY AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORM AROUND
KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES FOR
THIS ARE LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY
WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CONUS...INCLUDING SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WAS PROVIDING
THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION FROM THE LAND OF 10,000 LAKES THROUGH THE
SUNFLOWER STATE. MORE JET ENERGY WAS ALSO NOTED RACING OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING WHERE IT WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT LINGERING IN THE PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT/FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE.

HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
OF 08Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BEGINS LOOSING DEFINITION WHILE A THERMAL LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. DRY WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AND COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION IT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. IT APPEARS
THE RECORD AT LUBBOCK /99 DEGREES...LAST TOUCHED LAST YEAR/ WILL
AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH MANY SPOTS AGAIN EXPERIENCING HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DECAYING FRONT AND LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THE STRONG HEATING/THERMALS MAY BE ABLE
TO BREACH THE CAP WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND TIGHTENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT A LITTLE GREATER THAN
YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SHOWING
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. HENCE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO
INCLUDE A LOW CONDITIONAL STORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST FROM
21-06Z...PRIMARILY FOR BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SBCAPES
OF 1500+ J/KG COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...THOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY
MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...MOIST SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT LOCALLY.

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF ACUTE WARMTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F AGAIN IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NW CWA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. WED AND THU SHOULD
BRING PRETTY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL TX...WITH OUR CWA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE /POSSIBLY TIED
TO A TROPICAL WAVE/ UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW STRATUS INVADING FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS WED MORNING.
BUT LACK OF ANY LIFT SHOULD KEEP POPS VERY LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS STILL DEVELOPING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDE A RICH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR SRN BAJA...AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING A LOW-LVL FOCUS. THE 00 UTC GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
/IN CONTRAST TO IT/S PREVIOUS 12 UTC RUN/. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE PROJECTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO OF
STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD...IT KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND THE
DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF PROG...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        97  62  91  63  92 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         98  66  94  66  93 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     98  67  95  67  93 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND    100  67  96  66  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK      101  70  96  70  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY  101  67  97  66  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD   102  68  97  66  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS    101  74  98  72  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR         100  71  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT    101  73  98  74  96 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 010840
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY
WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CONUS...INCLUDING SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WAS PROVIDING
THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION FROM THE LAND OF 10,000 LAKES THROUGH THE
SUNFLOWER STATE. MORE JET ENERGY WAS ALSO NOTED RACING OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING WHERE IT WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT LINGERING IN THE PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT/FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE.

HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
OF 08Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BEGINS LOOSING DEFINITION WHILE A THERMAL LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. DRY WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AND COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION IT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. IT APPEARS
THE RECORD AT LUBBOCK /99 DEGREES...LAST TOUCHED LAST YEAR/ WILL
AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH MANY SPOTS AGAIN EXPERIENCING HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DECAYING FRONT AND LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THE STRONG HEATING/THERMALS MAY BE ABLE
TO BREACH THE CAP WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND TIGHTENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT A LITTLE GREATER THAN
YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SHOWING
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. HENCE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO
INCLUDE A LOW CONDITIONAL STORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST FROM
21-06Z...PRIMARILY FOR BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SBCAPES
OF 1500+ J/KG COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...THOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY
MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...MOIST SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT LOCALLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF ACUTE WARMTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F AGAIN IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NW CWA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. WED AND THU SHOULD
BRING PRETTY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL TX...WITH OUR CWA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE /POSSIBLY TIED
TO A TROPICAL WAVE/ UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW STRATUS INVADING FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS WED MORNING.
BUT LACK OF ANY LIFT SHOULD KEEP POPS VERY LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS STILL DEVELOPING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDE A RICH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR SRN BAJA...AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING A LOW-LVL FOCUS. THE 00 UTC GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
/IN CONTRAST TO IT/S PREVIOUS 12 UTC RUN/. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE PROJECTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO OF
STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD...IT KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND THE
DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF PROG...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        97  62  91  63  92 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         98  66  94  66  93 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     98  67  95  67  93 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND    100  67  96  66  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK      101  70  96  70  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY  101  67  97  66  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD   102  68  97  66  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS    101  74  98  72  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR         100  71  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT    101  73  98  74  96 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 010840
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY
WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CONUS...INCLUDING SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WAS PROVIDING
THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION FROM THE LAND OF 10,000 LAKES THROUGH THE
SUNFLOWER STATE. MORE JET ENERGY WAS ALSO NOTED RACING OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING WHERE IT WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT LINGERING IN THE PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT/FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE.

HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
OF 08Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BEGINS LOOSING DEFINITION WHILE A THERMAL LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. DRY WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AND COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION IT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. IT APPEARS
THE RECORD AT LUBBOCK /99 DEGREES...LAST TOUCHED LAST YEAR/ WILL
AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH MANY SPOTS AGAIN EXPERIENCING HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DECAYING FRONT AND LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THE STRONG HEATING/THERMALS MAY BE ABLE
TO BREACH THE CAP WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND TIGHTENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT A LITTLE GREATER THAN
YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SHOWING
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. HENCE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO
INCLUDE A LOW CONDITIONAL STORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST FROM
21-06Z...PRIMARILY FOR BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SBCAPES
OF 1500+ J/KG COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...THOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY
MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...MOIST SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT LOCALLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF ACUTE WARMTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F AGAIN IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NW CWA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. WED AND THU SHOULD
BRING PRETTY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL TX...WITH OUR CWA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE /POSSIBLY TIED
TO A TROPICAL WAVE/ UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW STRATUS INVADING FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS WED MORNING.
BUT LACK OF ANY LIFT SHOULD KEEP POPS VERY LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS STILL DEVELOPING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDE A RICH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR SRN BAJA...AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING A LOW-LVL FOCUS. THE 00 UTC GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
/IN CONTRAST TO IT/S PREVIOUS 12 UTC RUN/. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE PROJECTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO OF
STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD...IT KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND THE
DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF PROG...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        97  62  91  63  92 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         98  66  94  66  93 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     98  67  95  67  93 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND    100  67  96  66  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK      101  70  96  70  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY  101  67  97  66  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD   102  68  97  66  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS    101  74  98  72  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR         100  71  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT    101  73  98  74  96 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 312328
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA TROUGH CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON MOST OF THE WRN CONUS LATE
THIS AFTN...THUS CAUSING THE ONCE AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS TO FLATTEN...IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LOCALLY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...WAS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH THAT WAS DRAPED FROM SERN
CO SSW ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
THEREFORE TIGHTENED A BIT LEADING TO BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS PER 20Z
METARS /15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 20-30 MPH/. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...HAS RESULTED IN AN AGITATED CU-FIELD
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS. THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FA DUE TO
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BY THIS
EVENING...ONCE THE SFC TROUGH MOVES TO ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES AND
ROLLING PLAINS LOCALES...COULD SEE PRECIP DEVELOP MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...THOUGH THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WRT SHOWING PRECIP
NEARING THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE. WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...JUST IN CASE THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN DEPICTED. IF STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...IT WILL INTERACT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND SBC
OF AOA 1.5 KJ/KG. HENCE...STORMS APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TOUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NE OF THE REGION
WHILST THE SFC TROUGH RELAXES...THUS CREATING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY GIVEN A 40-45 KT LLJ/. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. FOR LABOR
DAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AND PERHAPS BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY...THANKS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS/. IN FACT...A FORECAST HIGH OF 99 DEGREES AT KLBB
WILL TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2013 IF IT INDEED COMES INTO FRUITION.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SHARPENING OF A DRYLINE GENERALLY
DRAPED FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE TO MEMPHIS TO TAHOKA. WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THE LOCATION OF WHERE
THE FRONT MEETS THE DRYLINE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AREA OF CONCERN TO BE ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN TX
PANHANDLE. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...VERSUS JUST EAST OF THE FA PER THE GFS. THE BEST 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR /35-45 KTS/ AND SBC /2.5-3.5 KJ/KG/ WILL BE SITUATED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING...BUT A WATCHFUL EYE WILL STILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. TAKE A LOOK AT THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LONG TERM...
THE LATEST RUNS STILL SUPPORT EARLIER TRENDS WITH THE FRONT HOLDING
UP ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING...AND A TRIPLE POINT
ALONG THE DRY-LINE FRONT INTERSECTION PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. BUT THIS IS A NEAR ENOUGH CALL TO JUSTIFY A LOW MENTION FOR
THUNDER NEAR OR JUST INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY
APPEARS DECENT WHILE SHEAR A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH
CONSIDERATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BUT SHOULD MAKE FOR
SOME CLOSE RADAR VIEWING INTO THE EVENING. FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SURGING WEAKLY SOUTH AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL RIPPLE MAY EMERGE THEN IN MODEST ZONAL
FLOW...AND COMBINE WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TUESDAY. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO A MENTIONABLE
THUNDER CHANCE FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES PROBABLY BEST NEAR CAPROCK RIM.
UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A DRY STABLE OUTCOME EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE
WARM SIDE. IN FACT MOST TRENDS STILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK. VERY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND A WAVE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH WE ARE AS YET
UNSURE IF A SOLID MONSOONAL TAP WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF BAJA
COULD ADD MOISTURE TO THE MIX. WE HAVE EDGED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
MENTIONABLE ZONE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TAPERING
HIGHS ANOTHER NOTCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOPING JUST TO
LATCH ONTO THE CORRECT TREND FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  95  63  93  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  97  67  94  66 /  10  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  98  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     63  98  67  95  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  97  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  98  67  96  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64 100  68  97  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  74  98  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          67 100  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 100  73  98  73 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLUB 312328
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA TROUGH CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON MOST OF THE WRN CONUS LATE
THIS AFTN...THUS CAUSING THE ONCE AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS TO FLATTEN...IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LOCALLY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...WAS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH THAT WAS DRAPED FROM SERN
CO SSW ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
THEREFORE TIGHTENED A BIT LEADING TO BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS PER 20Z
METARS /15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 20-30 MPH/. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...HAS RESULTED IN AN AGITATED CU-FIELD
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS. THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FA DUE TO
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BY THIS
EVENING...ONCE THE SFC TROUGH MOVES TO ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES AND
ROLLING PLAINS LOCALES...COULD SEE PRECIP DEVELOP MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...THOUGH THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WRT SHOWING PRECIP
NEARING THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE. WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...JUST IN CASE THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN DEPICTED. IF STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...IT WILL INTERACT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND SBC
OF AOA 1.5 KJ/KG. HENCE...STORMS APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TOUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NE OF THE REGION
WHILST THE SFC TROUGH RELAXES...THUS CREATING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY GIVEN A 40-45 KT LLJ/. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. FOR LABOR
DAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AND PERHAPS BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY...THANKS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS/. IN FACT...A FORECAST HIGH OF 99 DEGREES AT KLBB
WILL TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2013 IF IT INDEED COMES INTO FRUITION.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SHARPENING OF A DRYLINE GENERALLY
DRAPED FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE TO MEMPHIS TO TAHOKA. WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THE LOCATION OF WHERE
THE FRONT MEETS THE DRYLINE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AREA OF CONCERN TO BE ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN TX
PANHANDLE. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...VERSUS JUST EAST OF THE FA PER THE GFS. THE BEST 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR /35-45 KTS/ AND SBC /2.5-3.5 KJ/KG/ WILL BE SITUATED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING...BUT A WATCHFUL EYE WILL STILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. TAKE A LOOK AT THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LONG TERM...
THE LATEST RUNS STILL SUPPORT EARLIER TRENDS WITH THE FRONT HOLDING
UP ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING...AND A TRIPLE POINT
ALONG THE DRY-LINE FRONT INTERSECTION PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. BUT THIS IS A NEAR ENOUGH CALL TO JUSTIFY A LOW MENTION FOR
THUNDER NEAR OR JUST INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY
APPEARS DECENT WHILE SHEAR A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH
CONSIDERATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BUT SHOULD MAKE FOR
SOME CLOSE RADAR VIEWING INTO THE EVENING. FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SURGING WEAKLY SOUTH AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL RIPPLE MAY EMERGE THEN IN MODEST ZONAL
FLOW...AND COMBINE WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TUESDAY. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO A MENTIONABLE
THUNDER CHANCE FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES PROBABLY BEST NEAR CAPROCK RIM.
UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A DRY STABLE OUTCOME EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE
WARM SIDE. IN FACT MOST TRENDS STILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK. VERY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND A WAVE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH WE ARE AS YET
UNSURE IF A SOLID MONSOONAL TAP WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF BAJA
COULD ADD MOISTURE TO THE MIX. WE HAVE EDGED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
MENTIONABLE ZONE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TAPERING
HIGHS ANOTHER NOTCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOPING JUST TO
LATCH ONTO THE CORRECT TREND FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  95  63  93  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  97  67  94  66 /  10  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  98  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     63  98  67  95  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  97  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  98  67  96  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64 100  68  97  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  74  98  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          67 100  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 100  73  98  73 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLUB 312025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA TROUGH CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON MOST OF THE WRN CONUS LATE
THIS AFTN...THUS CAUSING THE ONCE AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS TO FLATTEN...IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LOCALLY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...WAS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH THAT WAS DRAPED FROM SERN
CO SSW ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
THEREFORE TIGHTENED A BIT LEADING TO BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS PER 20Z
METARS /15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 20-30 MPH/. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...HAS RESULTED IN AN AGITATED CU-FIELD
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS. THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FA DUE TO
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BY THIS
EVENING...ONCE THE SFC TROUGH MOVES TO ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES AND
ROLLING PLAINS LOCALES...COULD SEE PRECIP DEVELOP MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...THOUGH THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WRT SHOWING PRECIP
NEARING THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE. WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...JUST IN CASE THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN DEPICTED. IF STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...IT WILL INTERACT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND SBC
OF AOA 1.5 KJ/KG. HENCE...STORMS APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TOUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NE OF THE REGION
WHILST THE SFC TROUGH RELAXES...THUS CREATING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY GIVEN A 40-45 KT LLJ/. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. FOR LABOR
DAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AND PERHAPS BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY...THANKS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS/. IN FACT...A FORECAST HIGH OF 99 DEGREES AT KLBB
WILL TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2013 IF IT INDEED COMES INTO FRUITION.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SHARPENING OF A DRYLINE GENERALLY
DRAPED FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE TO MEMPHIS TO TAHOKA. WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THE LOCATION OF WHERE
THE FRONT MEETS THE DRYLINE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AREA OF CONCERN TO BE ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN TX
PANHANDLE. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...VERSUS JUST EAST OF THE FA PER THE GFS. THE BEST 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR /35-45 KTS/ AND SBC /2.5-3.5 KJ/KG/ WILL BE SITUATED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING...BUT A WATCHFUL EYE WILL STILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. TAKE A LOOK AT THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE LATEST RUNS STILL SUPPORT EARLIER TRENDS WITH THE FRONT HOLDING
UP ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING...AND A TRIPLE POINT
ALONG THE DRY-LINE FRONT INTERSECTION PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. BUT THIS IS A NEAR ENOUGH CALL TO JUSTIFY A LOW MENTION FOR
THUNDER NEAR OR JUST INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY
APPEARS DECENT WHILE SHEAR A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH
CONSIDERATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BUT SHOULD MAKE FOR
SOME CLOSE RADAR VIEWING INTO THE EVENING. FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SURGING WEAKLY SOUTH AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL RIPPLE MAY EMERGE THEN IN MODEST ZONAL
FLOW...AND COMBINE WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TUESDAY. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO A MENTIONABLE
THUNDER CHANCE FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES PROBABLY BEST NEAR CAPROCK RIM.
UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A DRY STABLE OUTCOME EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE
WARM SIDE. IN FACT MOST TRENDS STILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK. VERY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND A WAVE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH WE ARE AS YET
UNSURE IF A SOLID MONSOONAL TAP WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF BAJA
COULD ADD MOISTURE TO THE MIX. WE HAVE EDGED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
MENTIONABLE ZONE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TAPERING
HIGHS ANOTHER NOTCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOPING JUST TO
LATCH ONTO THE CORRECT TREND FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  95  63  93  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  97  67  94  66 /  10  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  98  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     63  98  67  95  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  97  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  98  67  96  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64 100  68  97  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  74  98  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          67 100  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 100  73  98  73 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 312025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA TROUGH CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON MOST OF THE WRN CONUS LATE
THIS AFTN...THUS CAUSING THE ONCE AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS TO FLATTEN...IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LOCALLY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...WAS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH THAT WAS DRAPED FROM SERN
CO SSW ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
THEREFORE TIGHTENED A BIT LEADING TO BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS PER 20Z
METARS /15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 20-30 MPH/. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...HAS RESULTED IN AN AGITATED CU-FIELD
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS. THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FA DUE TO
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BY THIS
EVENING...ONCE THE SFC TROUGH MOVES TO ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES AND
ROLLING PLAINS LOCALES...COULD SEE PRECIP DEVELOP MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...THOUGH THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WRT SHOWING PRECIP
NEARING THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE. WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...JUST IN CASE THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN DEPICTED. IF STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...IT WILL INTERACT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND SBC
OF AOA 1.5 KJ/KG. HENCE...STORMS APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TOUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NE OF THE REGION
WHILST THE SFC TROUGH RELAXES...THUS CREATING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY GIVEN A 40-45 KT LLJ/. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. FOR LABOR
DAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AND PERHAPS BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY...THANKS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS/. IN FACT...A FORECAST HIGH OF 99 DEGREES AT KLBB
WILL TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2013 IF IT INDEED COMES INTO FRUITION.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SHARPENING OF A DRYLINE GENERALLY
DRAPED FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE TO MEMPHIS TO TAHOKA. WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THE LOCATION OF WHERE
THE FRONT MEETS THE DRYLINE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AREA OF CONCERN TO BE ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN TX
PANHANDLE. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...VERSUS JUST EAST OF THE FA PER THE GFS. THE BEST 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR /35-45 KTS/ AND SBC /2.5-3.5 KJ/KG/ WILL BE SITUATED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING...BUT A WATCHFUL EYE WILL STILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. TAKE A LOOK AT THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE LATEST RUNS STILL SUPPORT EARLIER TRENDS WITH THE FRONT HOLDING
UP ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING...AND A TRIPLE POINT
ALONG THE DRY-LINE FRONT INTERSECTION PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. BUT THIS IS A NEAR ENOUGH CALL TO JUSTIFY A LOW MENTION FOR
THUNDER NEAR OR JUST INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY
APPEARS DECENT WHILE SHEAR A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH
CONSIDERATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BUT SHOULD MAKE FOR
SOME CLOSE RADAR VIEWING INTO THE EVENING. FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SURGING WEAKLY SOUTH AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL RIPPLE MAY EMERGE THEN IN MODEST ZONAL
FLOW...AND COMBINE WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TUESDAY. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO A MENTIONABLE
THUNDER CHANCE FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES PROBABLY BEST NEAR CAPROCK RIM.
UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A DRY STABLE OUTCOME EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE
WARM SIDE. IN FACT MOST TRENDS STILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK. VERY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND A WAVE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH WE ARE AS YET
UNSURE IF A SOLID MONSOONAL TAP WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF BAJA
COULD ADD MOISTURE TO THE MIX. WE HAVE EDGED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
MENTIONABLE ZONE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TAPERING
HIGHS ANOTHER NOTCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOPING JUST TO
LATCH ONTO THE CORRECT TREND FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  95  63  93  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  97  67  94  66 /  10  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  98  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     63  98  67  95  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  97  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  98  67  96  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64 100  68  97  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  74  98  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          67 100  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 100  73  98  73 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 311723
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS ARE GRADUALLY PICKING UP THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF A NEARBY DEEPENING SFC TROUGH. WILL SEE
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 16-19 KTS AT BOTH TAF SITES...WITH GUSTS
OF AOA 20-23 KTS PARTICULARLY AT KCDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA
DEVELOPING NEAR KCDS THIS EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.  WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BREEZY DUE TO A
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS AOA 13 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOP NEAR
KCDS BY THE EVENING. WILL HOWEVER OPT TO FORGO A PRECIP MENTION
AND AWAIT FOR THE POTENTIAL EVENT TO DRAW NEARER.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS JUST SKIRTING THE AREA WITH
LIFT...TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS THE UPPER FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING WHERE IT WILL HELP TRIGGER A ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION THERE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
KANSAS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO SEE IF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. MOST
DETERMINISTIC NWP SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WIN OUT LOCALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
GREATER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW /AND
SILENT/...TAPERING FROM 13 PERCENT NEAR MEMPHIS TO 5 PERCENT AT
DENVER CITY. SHOULD A ROGUE CLOUD BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHAT IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON...WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH UPPER 90S A
SOLID BET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON LABOR DAY AS MID-LVL FLOW VEERS MORE
WESTERLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SPREADING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP ACROSS THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
SSWD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...OR
THE CAP MIGHT HOLD. NOT MUCH QPF SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO HANG
OUR HAT ON...SO WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE MOST
LIKELY CI LOCATION...NAMELY BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
MENTION. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES. WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BRING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
CWA...AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOW A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN TIER...AND IN A NEW TWIST...EVEN BUILDS HEIGHTS
OVER WEST TX HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SLOWLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER WTX AND NM...AS A LARGE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SINKS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ALSO
IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...URGED ON BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING IN OUR CWA BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HINT AT SOME COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVER NEXT WEEKEND BY
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  95  63  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         67  97  67  96  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  97  68  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  98  68  97  67 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  99  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  98  67  97  67 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  99  69  97  68 /  10   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  99  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72 100  74  98  75 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 311115
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND REMAIN ELEVATED WELL INTO
EVENING AS A STOUT LLJ REDEVELOPS TONIGHT. THERE IS A REMOTE
CHANCE OF A LATE-DAY HIGH-BASED SHOWER/STORM...THOUGH PROSPECTS
ARE FAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS JUST SKIRTING THE AREA WITH
LIFT...TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS THE UPPER FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING WHERE IT WILL HELP TRIGGER A ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION THERE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
KANSAS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO SEE IF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. MOST
DETERMINISTIC NWP SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WIN OUT LOCALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
GREATER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW /AND
SILENT/...TAPERING FROM 13 PERCENT NEAR MEMPHIS TO 5 PERCENT AT
DENVER CITY. SHOULD A ROGUE CLOUD BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHAT IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON...WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH UPPER 90S A
SOLID BET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON LABOR DAY AS MID-LVL FLOW VEERS MORE
WESTERLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SPREADING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP ACROSS THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
SSWD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...OR
THE CAP MIGHT HOLD. NOT MUCH QPF SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO HANG
OUR HAT ON...SO WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE MOST
LIKELY CI LOCATION...NAMELY BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
MENTION. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES. WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BRING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
CWA...AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOW A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN TIER...AND IN A NEW TWIST...EVEN BUILDS HEIGHTS
OVER WEST TX HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SLOWLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER WTX AND NM...AS A LARGE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SINKS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ALSO
IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...URGED ON BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING IN OUR CWA BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HINT AT SOME COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVER NEXT WEEKEND BY
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  64  95  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         96  67  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     95  66  97  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  66  98  68  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  69  98  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  66  98  67  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  66  99  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  73 101  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  68  99  72  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72 100  74  98 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 311115
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND REMAIN ELEVATED WELL INTO
EVENING AS A STOUT LLJ REDEVELOPS TONIGHT. THERE IS A REMOTE
CHANCE OF A LATE-DAY HIGH-BASED SHOWER/STORM...THOUGH PROSPECTS
ARE FAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS JUST SKIRTING THE AREA WITH
LIFT...TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS THE UPPER FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING WHERE IT WILL HELP TRIGGER A ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION THERE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
KANSAS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO SEE IF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. MOST
DETERMINISTIC NWP SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WIN OUT LOCALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
GREATER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW /AND
SILENT/...TAPERING FROM 13 PERCENT NEAR MEMPHIS TO 5 PERCENT AT
DENVER CITY. SHOULD A ROGUE CLOUD BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHAT IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON...WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH UPPER 90S A
SOLID BET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON LABOR DAY AS MID-LVL FLOW VEERS MORE
WESTERLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SPREADING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP ACROSS THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
SSWD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...OR
THE CAP MIGHT HOLD. NOT MUCH QPF SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO HANG
OUR HAT ON...SO WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE MOST
LIKELY CI LOCATION...NAMELY BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
MENTION. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES. WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BRING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
CWA...AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOW A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN TIER...AND IN A NEW TWIST...EVEN BUILDS HEIGHTS
OVER WEST TX HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SLOWLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER WTX AND NM...AS A LARGE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SINKS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ALSO
IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...URGED ON BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING IN OUR CWA BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HINT AT SOME COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVER NEXT WEEKEND BY
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  64  95  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         96  67  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     95  66  97  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  66  98  68  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  69  98  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  66  98  67  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  66  99  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  73 101  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  68  99  72  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72 100  74  98 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 310850
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS JUST SKIRTING THE AREA WITH
LIFT...TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS THE UPPER FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING WHERE IT WILL HELP TRIGGER A ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION THERE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
KANSAS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO SEE IF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. MOST
DETERMINISTIC NWP SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WIN OUT LOCALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
GREATER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW /AND
SILENT/...TAPERING FROM 13 PERCENT NEAR MEMPHIS TO 5 PERCENT AT
DENVER CITY. SHOULD A ROGUE CLOUD BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHAT IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON...WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH UPPER 90S A
SOLID BET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON LABOR DAY AS MID-LVL FLOW VEERS MORE
WESTERLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SPREADING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP ACROSS THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
SSWD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...OR
THE CAP MIGHT HOLD. NOT MUCH QPF SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO HANG
OUR HAT ON...SO WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE MOST
LIKELY CI LOCATION...NAMELY BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
MENTION. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES. WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BRING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
CWA...AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOW A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN TIER...AND IN A NEW TWIST...EVEN BUILDS HEIGHTS
OVER WEST TX HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SLOWLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER WTX AND NM...AS A LARGE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SINKS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ALSO
IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...URGED ON BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING IN OUR CWA BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HINT AT SOME COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVER NEXT WEEKEND BY
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  64  95  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         96  67  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     95  66  97  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  66  98  68  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  69  98  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  66  98  67  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  66  99  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  73 101  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  68  99  72  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72 100  74  98 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 310850
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS JUST SKIRTING THE AREA WITH
LIFT...TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS THE UPPER FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING WHERE IT WILL HELP TRIGGER A ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION THERE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
KANSAS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO SEE IF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. MOST
DETERMINISTIC NWP SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WIN OUT LOCALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
GREATER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW /AND
SILENT/...TAPERING FROM 13 PERCENT NEAR MEMPHIS TO 5 PERCENT AT
DENVER CITY. SHOULD A ROGUE CLOUD BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHAT IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON...WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH UPPER 90S A
SOLID BET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON LABOR DAY AS MID-LVL FLOW VEERS MORE
WESTERLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SPREADING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP ACROSS THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
SSWD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...OR
THE CAP MIGHT HOLD. NOT MUCH QPF SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO HANG
OUR HAT ON...SO WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE MOST
LIKELY CI LOCATION...NAMELY BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
MENTION. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES. WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BRING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
CWA...AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOW A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN TIER...AND IN A NEW TWIST...EVEN BUILDS HEIGHTS
OVER WEST TX HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SLOWLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER WTX AND NM...AS A LARGE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SINKS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ALSO
IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...URGED ON BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING IN OUR CWA BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HINT AT SOME COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVER NEXT WEEKEND BY
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  64  95  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         96  67  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     95  66  97  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  66  98  68  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  69  98  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  66  98  67  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  66  99  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  73 101  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  68  99  72  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72 100  74  98 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 310425
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW DISSIPATING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR STAY NORTH OF KCDS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PESSIMISTIC...AND WITH
WINDS STAYING UP NEAR 10-12 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT IS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME. WILL THUS KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
FINALLY...AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT TS VCNTY KCDS LATE SUNDAY AFTN AS A
SFC TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. POSSIBILITY
REMAINS REMOTE ATTM AND WILL NOT EXTEND MENTION BEYOND THIS
DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE LIKELY
TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KCDS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MINOR OBSTRUCTION TO VSBY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS SFC AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS RICH. WILL KEEP BOTH TAFS UNRESTRICTED ATTM.
FINALLY...LEE SFC TROUGH TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS BY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND BROAD UA TROUGHING IMPINGING ON
THE NW PACIFIC...HAS RESULTED IN WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
CO/NRN NM LATE LAST NIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO ACROSS THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
SINCE WANED. THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH S-SE SFC FLOW AND
PWATS OF 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE AIDING IN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW OF THE CWA IN CURRY
COUNTY. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS EVENING...DOES RAISE
CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS TO POSSIBLY APPROACH STRONG LEVELS /GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/...IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL GIVEN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIP MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SERN TX
PANHANDLE AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS ESEWRD OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK. TOMORROW...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN COURTESY OF THE BROAD UA TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS SUCH...A NEARBY SFC TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN A BIT...LEADING TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20 MPH/. THE DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...MORE SO ACROSS THE
ERN PANHANDLES. A CAPPING INVERSION IS APPARENTLY MAINTAINING A GRIP
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...THUS
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPEEDING NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY IN BROAD
BUT WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE... WITH SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREEMENT BOUNDARY WILL
HANG UP NEAR OR OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL DRYING STILL LOOK TOO PRONOUNCED
FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON LABOR DAY...AND WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD
A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL THOUGH WEAKER
SHOVE BY AN EVEN SHALLOWER WAVE RIPPLING TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...WE WILL CONTINUE SIDING WITH THE GENERAL STRONG WARM-UP
THAT WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...IE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL COOL PUSH AT THIS POINT. AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DEEP
MOISTURE UNABLE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA THOUGH SOME AMOUNT OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. FOR THE XTH DAY IN A
ROW...THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE PROXIMITY. WE
CONTINUE TO SEE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND HAVE RETAINED SUB-
MENTIONABLE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
DEEPER MONSOONAL FLOW MAY LEAN CLOSER TO OUR AREA AT SOME POINT
LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  96  64  96  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  96  66  97  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  96  66  97  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  97  70  99  70 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  98  67  99  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70 100  73 100  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  98  69  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  73 100  74 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 310425
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW DISSIPATING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR STAY NORTH OF KCDS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PESSIMISTIC...AND WITH
WINDS STAYING UP NEAR 10-12 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT IS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME. WILL THUS KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
FINALLY...AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT TS VCNTY KCDS LATE SUNDAY AFTN AS A
SFC TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. POSSIBILITY
REMAINS REMOTE ATTM AND WILL NOT EXTEND MENTION BEYOND THIS
DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE LIKELY
TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KCDS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MINOR OBSTRUCTION TO VSBY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS SFC AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS RICH. WILL KEEP BOTH TAFS UNRESTRICTED ATTM.
FINALLY...LEE SFC TROUGH TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS BY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND BROAD UA TROUGHING IMPINGING ON
THE NW PACIFIC...HAS RESULTED IN WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
CO/NRN NM LATE LAST NIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO ACROSS THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
SINCE WANED. THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH S-SE SFC FLOW AND
PWATS OF 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE AIDING IN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW OF THE CWA IN CURRY
COUNTY. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS EVENING...DOES RAISE
CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS TO POSSIBLY APPROACH STRONG LEVELS /GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/...IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL GIVEN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIP MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SERN TX
PANHANDLE AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS ESEWRD OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK. TOMORROW...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN COURTESY OF THE BROAD UA TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS SUCH...A NEARBY SFC TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN A BIT...LEADING TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20 MPH/. THE DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...MORE SO ACROSS THE
ERN PANHANDLES. A CAPPING INVERSION IS APPARENTLY MAINTAINING A GRIP
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...THUS
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPEEDING NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY IN BROAD
BUT WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE... WITH SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREEMENT BOUNDARY WILL
HANG UP NEAR OR OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL DRYING STILL LOOK TOO PRONOUNCED
FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON LABOR DAY...AND WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD
A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL THOUGH WEAKER
SHOVE BY AN EVEN SHALLOWER WAVE RIPPLING TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...WE WILL CONTINUE SIDING WITH THE GENERAL STRONG WARM-UP
THAT WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...IE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL COOL PUSH AT THIS POINT. AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DEEP
MOISTURE UNABLE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA THOUGH SOME AMOUNT OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. FOR THE XTH DAY IN A
ROW...THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE PROXIMITY. WE
CONTINUE TO SEE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND HAVE RETAINED SUB-
MENTIONABLE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
DEEPER MONSOONAL FLOW MAY LEAN CLOSER TO OUR AREA AT SOME POINT
LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  96  64  96  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  96  66  97  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  96  66  97  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  97  70  99  70 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  98  67  99  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70 100  73 100  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  98  69  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  73 100  74 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






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