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000
FXUS64 KLUB 192317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. GUIDANCE IS QUITE
VARIED ON PROSPECTS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY AT KLBB MAINLY AFTER 10Z BUT NON-ZERO
AT KCDS AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND WILL
MONITOR AVAILABLE DATA. TSTM ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL
MONDAY AFTN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 192317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. GUIDANCE IS QUITE
VARIED ON PROSPECTS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY AT KLBB MAINLY AFTER 10Z BUT NON-ZERO
AT KCDS AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND WILL
MONITOR AVAILABLE DATA. TSTM ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL
MONDAY AFTN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 192317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. GUIDANCE IS QUITE
VARIED ON PROSPECTS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY AT KLBB MAINLY AFTER 10Z BUT NON-ZERO
AT KCDS AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND WILL
MONITOR AVAILABLE DATA. TSTM ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL
MONDAY AFTN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 192317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. GUIDANCE IS QUITE
VARIED ON PROSPECTS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY AT KLBB MAINLY AFTER 10Z BUT NON-ZERO
AT KCDS AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW AND WILL
MONITOR AVAILABLE DATA. TSTM ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL
MONDAY AFTN.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 192032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 192032
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE WAS ALSO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THERE IS AN MCV TYPE FEATURE SEEN IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MOVING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORT WAVE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS UNDERGONE
A LARGE BUMP TODAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
REGION. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WERE OBSERVED AREA WIDE
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IN TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

LOW STRATUS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING BUT ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HAS
GENERATED SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY VALUES WERE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT STILL MOSTLY CAPPED. MOST OF THE CAP
WILL LIKELY BE ERODED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RISK OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE AND MCV MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE UP FOR SOME
OF THE CAPPING AND THUS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS WELL TO THE
SOUTH WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER HAVE ALREADY
SEEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE
DEGREES OF HEATING WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER IN MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR A STEADY STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO THE APPROACHING TROF WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE TROF AXIS WILL START TO CROSS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO BE DRY COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND
WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT SEE WHY
WE WOULD NOT SEE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WITH
THE GFS CARRYING THE CORE OF THE JET OVER THE REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CORE SOUTH. ECMWF SOLUTION WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE WOULD BE OVER THE
REGION. ONLY CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST WAS TO TAPER OFF THE
TAIL END OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO BETTER REFLECT
THE TIMING OF THE TROF AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR MID-WEEK THANKS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION BUT
TRIMMED BACK HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND.

BACK END OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE REGION KEEPING DRY NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  74  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         51  77  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     53  76  52  74  53 /  20  30  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     54  74  52  73  53 /  30  40  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       54  75  54  74  54 /  20  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   54  72  51  71  54 /  30  40  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  74  53  73  54 /  30  40  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     56  82  57  81  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          57  79  57  78  55 /  20  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     59  80  57  80  56 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14







000
FXUS64 KLUB 191713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLBB THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BREAK AT KCDS THEN LIFTING AT BOTH TAF
SITES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR LOWERED VISBYS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECKS
LATER THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH LOW CLOUDS
NEARBY...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED AND THUS WILL
HOLD ON TO A MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  73  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         52  76  51  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  75  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  73  54  73  53 /  20  30  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       55  74  54  74  54 /  10  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  71  57  71  54 /  20  30  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    56  73  55  73  54 /  20  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     57  81  57  80  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          58  78  57  77  55 /  10  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  57  79  56 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 191713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLBB THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF BREAK AT KCDS THEN LIFTING AT BOTH TAF
SITES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KLBB LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER LOW CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.
CHANCES FOR LOWERED VISBYS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE
MOMENT TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECKS
LATER THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH LOW CLOUDS
NEARBY...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED AND THUS WILL
HOLD ON TO A MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  73  49  72  51 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         52  76  51  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  75  52  74  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     55  73  54  73  53 /  20  30  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       55  74  54  74  54 /  10  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   55  71  57  71  54 /  20  30  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    56  73  55  73  54 /  20  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     57  81  57  80  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          58  78  57  77  55 /  10  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     60  79  57  79  56 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 191120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD DECKS
LATER THIS MORNING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WITH LOW CLOUDS
NEARBY...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRENCE HAS INCREASED AND THUS WILL
HOLD ON TO A MENTION AT BOTH TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTN BEFORE DETERIORATING TO MVFR CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NE SFC WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         72  52  76  51  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  54  75  52  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     71  55  73  54  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  55  74  54  74 /  20  10  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   70  55  71  57  71 /  20  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    72  56  73  55  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     76  57  81  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          74  58  78  57  77 /  20  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     77  60  79  57  79 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 190735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         72  52  76  51  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  54  75  52  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     71  55  73  54  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  55  74  54  74 /  20  10  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   70  55  71  57  71 /  20  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    72  56  73  55  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     76  57  81  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          74  58  78  57  77 /  20  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     77  60  79  57  79 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 190735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
235 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY AFTN...WAS
TRANSLATING ENE ACROSS NWRN OKLAHOMA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...WINDS WERE GENERALLY OF AN UPSLOPE REGIME
THUS PROMOTING ENDURING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S/. IT IS THEREFORE NOT SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS /PERHAPS ONLY PRODUCING SPRINKLES IF THAT/ NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG LATER THIS MORNING AS THE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD
GRADUALLY NARROWS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA TROUGH DIGGING ESE ACROSS THE NRN
BAJA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH OFF WHILST
NEARING NWRN OLD MEXICO THIS AFTN. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION /DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTN/ COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT S-SE
SFC WINDS TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OF A 100-300 J/KG APPEARS INSIGNIFICANT...
LIKE YESTERDAY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE MORE
SO DURING THE AFTN. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT LATE THIS
AFTN WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING ONLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
/70S/. TONIGHT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK NEAREST TO THE UA DISTURBANCE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS MAKING FOR A MILD
NIGHT /50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS CONTINUING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
FCST WHICH IS A POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT MIDWEEK. BEFORE
THEN WILL SEE AN UPPER LOW MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TO FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE PRESENT TO SEE SOME WEAKLY-FORCED SHOWERS TRY TO
SPREAD NEWD INTO MAINLY THE SWRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA
WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAGNITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF
PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...PHASING
WITH THE LOW OVER FAR WEST TEXAS THEN CROSSING THE HIGH PLAINS IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE FAIRLY VIGOROUS AS IT MOVES OFF THE
ROCKIES...IN PARTICULAR ON THE SRN END OF THE TROUGH AS THE MODELS
END CLOSING A LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...EVEN WITH THAT CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING...PRECIP SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTN. AFTERWARDS...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  73  49  72 /  10  20  20  20  20
TULIA         72  52  76  51  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     71  54  75  52  74 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     71  55  73  54  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  55  74  54  74 /  20  10  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   70  55  71  57  71 /  20  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    72  56  73  55  73 /  20  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     76  57  81  57  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          74  58  78  57  77 /  20  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     77  60  79  57  79 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 190445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR IFR CEILINGS AT
KLBB. THUS FAR...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD THAT KLBB WILL DIP TO
MVFR TOWARD SUNRISE THOUGH GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...PERHAPS A
30-40 PCT CHANCE OF IFR EXISTS. ABOUT A 10 PCT CHANCE EXISTS FOR
LIFR IN CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.  KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD ONLY
DIP TO HIGH-END MVFR GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY BUT EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 190445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR IFR CEILINGS AT
KLBB. THUS FAR...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD THAT KLBB WILL DIP TO
MVFR TOWARD SUNRISE THOUGH GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...PERHAPS A
30-40 PCT CHANCE OF IFR EXISTS. ABOUT A 10 PCT CHANCE EXISTS FOR
LIFR IN CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.  KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD ONLY
DIP TO HIGH-END MVFR GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY BUT EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 190445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR IFR CEILINGS AT
KLBB. THUS FAR...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE GOOD THAT KLBB WILL DIP TO
MVFR TOWARD SUNRISE THOUGH GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...PERHAPS A
30-40 PCT CHANCE OF IFR EXISTS. ABOUT A 10 PCT CHANCE EXISTS FOR
LIFR IN CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS.  KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD ONLY
DIP TO HIGH-END MVFR GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY BUT EVENTUALLY CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 182331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AT KLBB. CEILING
SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 182331
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014


.AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EARLY EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AT KLBB. CEILING
SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
BY SUNRISE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 182029
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 182029
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WAS STILL
LIFTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING AND COMPLETELY MINORING
OUT WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS
CONTAINED WITHIN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LIFT
FROM THIS SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS LOWER
IN THETA-E RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES
EAST. ELEVATED PARCELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON THE CAPROCK BUT
GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL HOURS IT STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT LEADING TO LOW STRATUS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

ON THE HEELS OF THIS DEPARTING SHORT WAVE WILL BE A LONG WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
CUT OFF AND GREATLY SLOW DOWN BY THE TIME IT DIVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PROMOTE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD
AND LEAD TO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN
CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE UP INTO
WEST TEXAS. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY BE
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL HAVE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP
CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW DISSIPATES AND IS ABSORBED INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE MODELS PAN OUT WHERE
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. ECMWF
DOES NOT BRING THE TROF AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING SO LEFT POP CHANCES ALONE FOR NOW. MODELS DEVELOP
A DEEP CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA
WEST OF THE LOW...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP A COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH MEANS A DRY
FORECAST AND WILL ALSO SEE SEASONABLE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  69  50  73  48 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         48  71  50  76  51 /  10  10  10  20  10
PLAINVIEW     49  71  53  75  52 /  10  10  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  53  74  51 /  10  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       51  72  54  75  53 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  71  54  74  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    51  73  55  75  52 /  10  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     51  77  55  81  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          52  75  58  78  55 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     54  77  58  80  57 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14







000
FXUS64 KLUB 181707
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KCDS. LOW
CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRAWS INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THESE CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN MVFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  70  50  73  49 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         47  72  52  76  52 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     48  72  55  75  53 /  10  10  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     49  72  54  74  52 /  10  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       50  72  55  75  54 /  10  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   50  72  54  74  53 /  10  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    50  73  55  75  53 /  10  10  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     50  76  55  81  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          51  75  56  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     53  77  59  80  58 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 181707
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KCDS. LOW
CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRAWS INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THESE CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN MVFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  70  50  73  49 /  10  10  20  20  20
TULIA         47  72  52  76  52 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     48  72  55  75  53 /  10  10  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     49  72  54  74  52 /  10  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       50  72  55  75  54 /  10  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   50  72  54  74  53 /  10  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    50  73  55  75  53 /  10  10  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     50  76  55  81  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          51  75  56  78  56 /  10  10  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     53  77  59  80  58 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99







000
FXUS64 KLUB 181607
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  20  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 181607
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  20  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 181607
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  20  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 181607
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1107 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM A DECAYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST
ON THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH...AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  20  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 181203
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST
NORTHEAST FROM EAST NEW MEXICO TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE WX PACKAGE TO REFLECT THE
ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY OF THE ACTIVITY...AS WELL THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 181203
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST
NORTHEAST FROM EAST NEW MEXICO TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE WX PACKAGE TO REFLECT THE
ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY OF THE ACTIVITY...AS WELL THE SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  50  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  50  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  40  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  50  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  50  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 181124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 181124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 181124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 181124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
-SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED WELL WEST OF KLBB /ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO/ EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY. WILL OPT TO NOT
INCLUDE A PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN...AND AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATTER-HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 180800
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 180800
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA DISTURBANCE THAT WAS ONCE A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI
YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE SHEARED OUT AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS WRN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
SRN AND CNTRL NEW MEXICO...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A CONTINUAL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS
ERN NEW MEXICO THUS INSINUATING INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTENING...WITH SLOW MOISTENING AT THE SFC /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
AND 40S GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF A SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL LEAD TO PWATS INCREASING TO
1.00-1.20 INCHES BY THIS AFTN THRU THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SOLUTIONS FAVORING LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE FLEETING DUE TO
THE UA DISTURBANCE/S WEAKENING STATE...AND PROGGED MID-LEVEL CAPE
VALUES ONLY AOA 100 J/KG.

THE APPROACHING UA DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE HEIGHT FALLS...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WILL LEAD TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS TODAY /60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO 70S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS/ FOLLOWED BY AVG OVERNIGHT LOWS /40S AND 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THERE IS ENOUGH CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT
ON PRECIP FCST. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIF THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO A POSITION NEAR
EL PASO BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE OPENING UP AND EJECTING NEWD.
MODELS DIFFER WITH HOW MUCH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW WITH THE GFS AMONG THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUNS. WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SUNDAY SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME VALIDITY TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
FURTHER TO THE SW PER THE NAM. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW BUT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INTRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING THROUGH TUESDAY AND FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE
WRN OR SWRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MIDWEEK IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES...
SHARPENING AS IT DOES. 00Z EURO SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. STILL THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD WINDOW FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDER WITH TIMING CURRENTLY FAVORING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THAT PERIOD.

TEMPS APPEAR FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE
DEVIATION FROM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  46  70  50  73 /  30  10  10  20  20
TULIA         66  47  72  52  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  48  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  49  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  50  72  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   70  50  72  54  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  50  73  55  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  50  76  55  81 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          72  51  75  56  78 /  10  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     75  53  77  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 180450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS
AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL SEE SHRA
WEST OF KLBB SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  67  45  72 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  68  46  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  68  47  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  68  48  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  69  49  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  71  49  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  70  49  73 /   0  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  72  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  73  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  74  51  77 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 180450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS
AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL SEE SHRA
WEST OF KLBB SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  67  45  72 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  68  46  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  68  47  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  68  48  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  69  49  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  71  49  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  70  49  73 /   0  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  72  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  73  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  74  51  77 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KLUB 180450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS
AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL SEE SHRA
WEST OF KLBB SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  67  45  72 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  68  46  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  68  47  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  68  48  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  69  49  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  71  49  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  70  49  73 /   0  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  72  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  73  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  74  51  77 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 180450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER CLOUDS
AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WILL SEE SHRA
WEST OF KLBB SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION AT THE
TERMINAL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  67  45  72 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  68  46  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  68  47  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  68  48  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  69  49  72 /   0   0  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  71  49  72 /   0  10  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  70  49  73 /   0  10  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  72  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  73  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  74  51  77 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KLUB 172332
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  67  45  72  48 /  10  30  10  10  10
TULIA         44  68  46  73  51 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  68  47  72  53 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  68  48  72  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  69  49  72  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   48  71  49  72  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  70  49  73  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  72  48  76  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  73  50  75  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     50  74  51  77  56 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 172332
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  67  45  72  48 /  10  30  10  10  10
TULIA         44  68  46  73  51 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  68  47  72  53 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  68  48  72  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  69  49  72  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   48  71  49  72  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  70  49  73  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  72  48  76  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  73  50  75  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     50  74  51  77  56 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KLUB 172332
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  67  45  72  48 /  10  30  10  10  10
TULIA         44  68  46  73  51 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  68  47  72  53 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  68  48  72  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  69  49  72  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   48  71  49  72  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  70  49  73  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  72  48  76  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  73  50  75  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     50  74  51  77  56 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 172332
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  67  45  72  48 /  10  30  10  10  10
TULIA         44  68  46  73  51 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  68  47  72  53 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  68  48  72  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  69  49  72  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   48  71  49  72  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  70  49  73  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  72  48  76  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  73  50  75  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     50  74  51  77  56 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KLUB 172021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  67  45  72  48 /  10  30  10  10  10
TULIA         44  68  46  73  51 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  68  47  72  53 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  68  48  72  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  69  49  72  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   48  71  49  72  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  70  49  73  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  72  48  76  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  73  50  75  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     50  74  51  77  56 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14







000
FXUS64 KLUB 172021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  67  45  72  48 /  10  30  10  10  10
TULIA         44  68  46  73  51 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  68  47  72  53 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  68  48  72  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  69  49  72  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   48  71  49  72  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  70  49  73  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  72  48  76  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  73  50  75  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     50  74  51  77  56 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 172021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ALREADY LOST
ITS CLOSED LOW STATUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY COOL CLOUD TOPS
ON IR AROUND -55C BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DRASTIC WHEN IT
ARRIVES FOR WEST TEXAS TOMORROW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COOLING
AT MID LEVELS AS IT APPROACHES WEST TEXAS BUT NOWHERE TO THE
DEGREE IT IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. WEAK LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. WE WILL
UNDERGO TOP DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TOMORROW. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE DRIER AT THE SURFACE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AT LOWER LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL NEARLY BE NON-
EXISTENT FOR SATURDAY WITH COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. PARCELS LIFTED FROM AROUND 700MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BEST HOPE WITH ALMOST 100 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH
MINIMAL CIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WAVE WILL TRY TO TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE REGION BUT WILL OPEN UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT JUST
A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
RAIN CHANCES TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS INITIAL
WAVE RAPIDLY LOSES DEFINITION IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE NEXT STRONGER TROF PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
STARTS TO DIG TOWARDS THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. GFS IS STILL THE LEAST OPTIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES AS IT
CARRIES THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE NORTH OF THE AREA
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROF ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. 12Z ECMWF HAS NOT MADE
IT INTO AWIPS YET SO GOING FROM THE 00Z RUN AND THE CLOSED LOW
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS...OPTED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  67  45  72  48 /  10  30  10  10  10
TULIA         44  68  46  73  51 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  68  47  72  53 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  68  48  72  53 /  10  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  69  49  72  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   48  71  49  72  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  70  49  73  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  72  48  76  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  73  50  75  56 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     50  74  51  77  56 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14







000
FXUS64 KLUB 171700
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  66  45  73  49 /  10  30  10  10  10
TULIA         44  67  46  75  52 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  67  47  73  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  67  48  74  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  68  49  74  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   48  70  49  74  55 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  69  49  74  55 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  71  48  76  58 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  72  50  75  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     50  73  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 171700
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  66  45  73  49 /  10  30  10  10  10
TULIA         44  67  46  75  52 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  67  47  73  54 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     45  67  48  74  54 /  10  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       47  68  49  74  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   48  70  49  74  55 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  69  49  74  55 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     49  71  48  76  58 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          48  72  50  75  57 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     50  73  51  78  57 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 171114
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST BY THE AFTN...WHILE FEW-SCT
VFR DECKS PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 171114
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST BY THE AFTN...WHILE FEW-SCT
VFR DECKS PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 171114
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST BY THE AFTN...WHILE FEW-SCT
VFR DECKS PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 171114
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST BY THE AFTN...WHILE FEW-SCT
VFR DECKS PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 170732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07








000
FXUS64 KLUB 170732
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA LOW NEARING THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
SENT DOWN A COLD FRONT THAT HAS ONLY RESULTED IN A NRLY WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. PER 07Z METARS...THE FRONT WAS
IMPINGING ON THE PERMIAN BASIN AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ITS
SWRD TREK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FLATTENED UA RIDGE WILL PROGRESS
EWRD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AS WELL AS THE SFC RIDGE
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NRLY WINDS VEERING TO THE ENE. THIS SLIGHT
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME MAY AID IN GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 0.50 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES BY TONIGHT/.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH
IS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY/S WELL ABOVE NORM TEMPS...COURTESY
OF THE COOLER AIRMASS ADVECTED IN BY THE COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH 40S EXPECTED.

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN UA DISTURBANCE CLOSING IN ON SRN
CALI/NRN BAJA PER 07Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT
WHILE PROPAGATING ENE ACROSS THE DESERT SW TO ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN
PWATS AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE MAY RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA TOMORROW. READ THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER TROUGHS THAT COULD BRING SOME PRECIP
TO THE FCST AREA IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
ALREADY HEADING EWD. DESPITE BEING SHEARED AS IT MOVES
EWD...EXPECT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN THIS TROUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING
APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH BEST CHANCES NOW COMING SATURDAY AFTN
RATHER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING
SEWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WILL APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE
SW MONDAY...ALTHOUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO...LIKELY
CONFINING ANY PRECIP TO THE SWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TEND TO FAVOR
THE EURO IN THESE SITUATIONS WHICH IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO
BETWEEN THAT AND THE GFS. WPC FAVORING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...AND
THEY HAVE RAMPED UP POPS AS A RESULT. NOT SURE THAT THE PATTERN
FAVORS POPS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE INDICATING ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY
LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU
THURSDAY PERIOD ABOUT 10 PCT ACROSS THE BOARD.

YESTERDAY SHOULD BE THE END OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE...ALTHOUGH NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED EITHER.
WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...
IF NOT PRECIP...SHOULD SEE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  43  66  45  73 /   0  10  30  10  10
TULIA         73  44  67  46  75 /   0   0  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  67  47  73 /   0   0  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     76  45  67  48  74 /   0  10  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       77  47  68  49  74 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  48  70  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  47  69  49  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     80  49  71  48  76 /   0   0  10  10  10
SPUR          78  48  72  50  75 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  50  73  51  78 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 170444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH VEERING NORTHEAST
WINDS. KLBB WILL LIKELY SEE SPEEDS APPROACH 12 KNOTS BY 15Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN
12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER QUITE THE WARM DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
EXPECTED.

COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN MAKE ITSELF AVAILABLE...THINK A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 27. THE CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF AS CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SLOWLY
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         87  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     89  45  75  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     90  47  76  47  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       91  48  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   89  50  79  50  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    90  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     96  49  79  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          93  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     92  49  80  51  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 170444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH VEERING NORTHEAST
WINDS. KLBB WILL LIKELY SEE SPEEDS APPROACH 12 KNOTS BY 15Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN
12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

DISCUSSION...

AFTER QUITE THE WARM DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
EXPECTED.

COOLER AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN MAKE ITSELF AVAILABLE...THINK A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ON SATURDAY MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 27. THE CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE BRIEF AS CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SLOWLY
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BOTH
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         87  45  75  44  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     89  45  75  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     90  47  76  47  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       91  48  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   89  50  79  50  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    90  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     96  49  79  49  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          93  48  78  49  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     92  49  80  51  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31






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