Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KLUB 201742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT RICH MOISTURE HAS KEPT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE DO EXPECT
KCDS TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AT KLBB AND HAVE ONLY INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS THERE. FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD THEN RE-ENVELOP KLBB THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AT KCDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF WORSE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS /PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM/ COULD ALSO AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND CATEGORY CHANGES
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AMENDMENTS IS HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO RECONFIGURE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO BEST ACCOUNT FOR RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN...WITH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE WTM
SITE NEAR GAIL HAS RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
NEARLY 4 INCHES AT FLUVANNA. OBSERVED 12 HOUR TOTALS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE NOT QUITE SO HIGH...THOUGH
MANY 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WERE NOTED...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW
POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TERRY...LYNN AND
GARZA COUNTIES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MANY ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN FLOODED
AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE VALID. WE DO EXPECT THIS
TROPICAL-LIKE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH AT LEAST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST DRYING ALOFT
INTO TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY TOO. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL THEN DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO MODIFY THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE UPDATE FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  75  58  75  59 /  30  50  40  50  20
TULIA         62  77  61  76  60 /  30  50  30  40  20
PLAINVIEW     64  77  61  77  62 /  40  50  30  40  20
LEVELLAND     64  77  61  78  61 /  50  60  40  50  20
LUBBOCK       65  77  63  78  65 /  60  60  30  40  20
DENVER CITY   66  77  60  79  62 /  60  60  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    66  77  60  79  61 /  60  60  40  50  20
CHILDRESS     69  83  66  81  65 /  30  30  30  30  30
SPUR          66  81  64  82  64 /  60  50  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  66  83  66 /  60  40  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

23/07/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 201742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT RICH MOISTURE HAS KEPT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE DO EXPECT
KCDS TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AT KLBB AND HAVE ONLY INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS THERE. FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD THEN RE-ENVELOP KLBB THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AT KCDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF WORSE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS /PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM/ COULD ALSO AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND CATEGORY CHANGES
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AMENDMENTS IS HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO RECONFIGURE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO BEST ACCOUNT FOR RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN...WITH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE WTM
SITE NEAR GAIL HAS RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
NEARLY 4 INCHES AT FLUVANNA. OBSERVED 12 HOUR TOTALS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE NOT QUITE SO HIGH...THOUGH
MANY 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WERE NOTED...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW
POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TERRY...LYNN AND
GARZA COUNTIES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MANY ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN FLOODED
AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE VALID. WE DO EXPECT THIS
TROPICAL-LIKE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH AT LEAST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST DRYING ALOFT
INTO TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY TOO. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL THEN DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO MODIFY THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE UPDATE FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  75  58  75  59 /  30  50  40  50  20
TULIA         62  77  61  76  60 /  30  50  30  40  20
PLAINVIEW     64  77  61  77  62 /  40  50  30  40  20
LEVELLAND     64  77  61  78  61 /  50  60  40  50  20
LUBBOCK       65  77  63  78  65 /  60  60  30  40  20
DENVER CITY   66  77  60  79  62 /  60  60  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    66  77  60  79  61 /  60  60  40  50  20
CHILDRESS     69  83  66  81  65 /  30  30  30  30  30
SPUR          66  81  64  82  64 /  60  50  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  66  83  66 /  60  40  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

23/07/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 201641 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO RECONFIGURE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO BEST ACCOUNT FOR RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN...WITH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE WTM
SITE NEAR GAIL HAS RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
NEARLY 4 INCHES AT FLUVANNA. OBSERVED 12 HOUR TOTALS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE NOT QUITE SO HIGH...THOUGH
MANY 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WERE NOTED...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW
POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TERRY...LYNN AND
GARZA COUNTIES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MANY ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN FLOODED
AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE VALID. WE DO EXPECT THIS
TROPICAL-LIKE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH AT LEAST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST DRYING ALOFT
INTO TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY TOO. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL THEN DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO MODIFY THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE UPDATE FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  61  75  58  75 /  40  30  50  40  50
TULIA         77  62  77  61  76 /  50  30  50  30  40
PLAINVIEW     76  64  77  61  77 /  70  40  50  30  40
LEVELLAND     76  64  77  61  78 /  70  50  60  40  50
LUBBOCK       78  65  77  63  78 /  70  60  60  30  40
DENVER CITY   77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  30  50
BROWNFIELD    77  66  77  60  79 /  80  60  60  40  50
CHILDRESS     83  69  83  66  81 /  60  30  30  30  30
SPUR          76  66  81  64  82 /  80  60  50  20  30
ASPERMONT     81  67  84  66  83 /  70  60  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

23/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 201641 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO RECONFIGURE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO BEST ACCOUNT FOR RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN...WITH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE WTM
SITE NEAR GAIL HAS RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
NEARLY 4 INCHES AT FLUVANNA. OBSERVED 12 HOUR TOTALS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE NOT QUITE SO HIGH...THOUGH
MANY 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WERE NOTED...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW
POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TERRY...LYNN AND
GARZA COUNTIES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MANY ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN FLOODED
AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE VALID. WE DO EXPECT THIS
TROPICAL-LIKE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH AT LEAST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST DRYING ALOFT
INTO TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY TOO. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL THEN DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO MODIFY THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE UPDATE FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  61  75  58  75 /  40  30  50  40  50
TULIA         77  62  77  61  76 /  50  30  50  30  40
PLAINVIEW     76  64  77  61  77 /  70  40  50  30  40
LEVELLAND     76  64  77  61  78 /  70  50  60  40  50
LUBBOCK       78  65  77  63  78 /  70  60  60  30  40
DENVER CITY   77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  30  50
BROWNFIELD    77  66  77  60  79 /  80  60  60  40  50
CHILDRESS     83  69  83  66  81 /  60  30  30  30  30
SPUR          76  66  81  64  82 /  80  60  50  20  30
ASPERMONT     81  67  84  66  83 /  70  60  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

23/07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 201127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  61  75  58  75 /  40  30  50  40  50
TULIA         77  62  77  61  76 /  50  30  50  30  40
PLAINVIEW     76  64  77  61  77 /  70  40  50  30  40
LEVELLAND     76  64  77  61  78 /  70  50  60  40  50
LUBBOCK       78  65  77  63  78 /  70  60  60  30  40
DENVER CITY   77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  30  50
BROWNFIELD    77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  40  50
CHILDRESS     83  69  83  66  81 /  60  30  30  30  30
SPUR          76  66  81  64  82 /  70  60  50  20  30
ASPERMONT     81  67  84  66  83 /  70  60  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 201127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  61  75  58  75 /  40  30  50  40  50
TULIA         77  62  77  61  76 /  50  30  50  30  40
PLAINVIEW     76  64  77  61  77 /  70  40  50  30  40
LEVELLAND     76  64  77  61  78 /  70  50  60  40  50
LUBBOCK       78  65  77  63  78 /  70  60  60  30  40
DENVER CITY   77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  30  50
BROWNFIELD    77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  40  50
CHILDRESS     83  69  83  66  81 /  60  30  30  30  30
SPUR          76  66  81  64  82 /  70  60  50  20  30
ASPERMONT     81  67  84  66  83 /  70  60  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KLUB 200851
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  61  75  58  75 /  40  30  50  40  50
TULIA         77  62  77  61  76 /  50  30  50  30  40
PLAINVIEW     76  64  77  61  77 /  70  40  50  30  40
LEVELLAND     76  64  77  61  78 /  70  50  60  40  50
LUBBOCK       78  65  77  63  78 /  70  60  60  30  40
DENVER CITY   77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  30  50
BROWNFIELD    77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  40  50
CHILDRESS     83  69  83  66  81 /  60  30  30  30  30
SPUR          76  66  81  64  82 /  70  60  50  20  30
ASPERMONT     81  67  84  66  83 /  70  60  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

31/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 200851
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  61  75  58  75 /  40  30  50  40  50
TULIA         77  62  77  61  76 /  50  30  50  30  40
PLAINVIEW     76  64  77  61  77 /  70  40  50  30  40
LEVELLAND     76  64  77  61  78 /  70  50  60  40  50
LUBBOCK       78  65  77  63  78 /  70  60  60  30  40
DENVER CITY   77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  30  50
BROWNFIELD    77  66  77  60  79 /  70  60  60  40  50
CHILDRESS     83  69  83  66  81 /  60  30  30  30  30
SPUR          76  66  81  64  82 /  70  60  50  20  30
ASPERMONT     81  67  84  66  83 /  70  60  40  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

31/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 200433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW LOW CIGS AND VISBYS TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST MORE ADVERSELY AFFECTING KLBB THAN KCDS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
LATER IN THE MORNING UNDER EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 200433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW LOW CIGS AND VISBYS TO
RETURN OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST MORE ADVERSELY AFFECTING KLBB THAN KCDS. RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING BUT MAY REDEVELOP
LATER IN THE MORNING UNDER EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 192342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE LOW CIGS...LOWERED
VISBYS...AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. KLBB WILL LIKELY DROP INTO IFR
AND POSSIBLY LIFR AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS WILL NOT LIKELY IMPROVE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 192342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MORE LOW CIGS...LOWERED
VISBYS...AND RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. KLBB WILL LIKELY DROP INTO IFR
AND POSSIBLY LIFR AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. CONDITIONS WILL NOT LIKELY IMPROVE
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL ALSO BRING CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 191956
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 191956
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
256 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
TODAY...WITH TROPICAL AND SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE RAISING PRECIPITABLE
WATERS TO NEAR RECORD SEPTEMBER LEVELS /AT 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES/. ALL
THIS MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
SCATTERED AND LIGHTER LOCALLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
HEATING/INSTABILITY HAS RECENTLY RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OBVIOUSLY...THE NEARLY SATURATED
TROPOSPHERE WILL BRING A RISK OF VERY EFFICIENT RAINERS WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY MOIST
GROUNDS...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. GREATER
CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE EDGES EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWP IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE DETAILS
GIVEN THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND SUBTLE FORCING...BUT THERE APPEARS
A GOOD BET ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE CONCENTRATED RAIN DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE STATE LINE THIS EVENING OR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY AT THE GREATEST RISK OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AND PLENTY OF JUICE TO KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY
OUT TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE A DOWNWARD TREND IN
ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL OF THIS IS SUBJECT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS WHICH IS FAR FROM
CERTAIN.

WE DID REDUCE POPS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS AND REMNANTS OF ODILE. A HEAVY RAIN MENTION WAS ALSO
MAINTAIN IN THE WEATHER GRIDS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THIS TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS COOL WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WE HAVE CARRIED A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE OF
AROUND 10 DEGREES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WET WEATHER TO CONTINUE LONGER THAN MOST WILL CARE FOR AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE /THE REMNANTS OF ODILE/ RETROGRADE WWD TO ERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING EWD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY. AS A
RESULT WILL NEED TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO NW
TEXAS TUESDAY...WEAKING AS IT DOES...BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTL PLAINS WITH A SUBTLE EXTENSION SWD TO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER TROUGH
OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR WEST TEXAS NWD TO A QUASI-
STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS OR A SHEARING UPPER
TROUGH THAT AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. EITHER WAY THIS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
/ALTHOUGH WITHOUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION OF THE LAST WEEK/ WILL
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME
MODEST DRYING THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...HOPEFULLY A RETURN TO A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO
LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH A NARROW RANGE
THAN THAT OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  62  76  61 /  70  50  50  50  40
TULIA         65  74  63  79  62 /  70  60  40  50  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  64  78  63 /  70  70  50  50  40
LEVELLAND     66  74  64  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
LUBBOCK       66  74  65  77  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  73  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
BROWNFIELD    66  74  66  72  64 /  70  70  60  60  40
CHILDRESS     69  80  68  82  66 /  60  60  40  30  30
SPUR          67  77  66  81  66 /  70  70  60  50  30
ASPERMONT     68  80  67  83  68 /  60  70  60  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 191748
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1248 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS IN AT THE TERMINALS TODAY
THOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE SCATTERED THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. THE DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE REGION
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE MEANING A CONTINUED RISK OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND CATEGORY CHANGES IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. CIGS
AT KCDS HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED TO VFR AND THEY MAY REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIKELY DROPPING BACK TO MVFR OR IFR
LATE TONIGHT. KLBB WAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING IFR CIGS...BUT THEY
WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO MVFR LEVELS AND PERHAPS VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE AT KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWER CHANCES AT
KCDS. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS ATTM. FUTURE AMENDMENTS FOR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES AND SHOWER/STORMS ARE A GOOD BET OVER THE COMING
24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND HAS LARGELY AVOIDED THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN BANDED AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS BROKEN BAND WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DID HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH IT...BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND MODEST STORM MOTION
HAS KEPT FLOODING CONCERNS LOW SO FAR. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING HAS ALSO KEPT
ACTIVITY IN THE SHOWER FORM...WITHOUT ANY THUNDER NOTED OF LATE.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OBVIOUSLY A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE SO ANY STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING A FLOODING
THREAT...WITH NEAR SATURATED SOILS AT MOST SPOTS TOO. THAT
SAID...THE SOUTH PLAINS MAY AVOID THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A GREATER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN THE CORE OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WE DID ALSO TAPER BACK ON THE THUNDER
MENTION THROUGH 18Z...BUT KEPT IT AS THE PREDOMINATE MODE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN FORCING SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR. STILL...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
PRIMARILY OF THE RAIN VARIETY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. ALL IN
ALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN CHECK AND THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS VALID THROUGH SATURDAY. IN FACT...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN SLOW TO EVOLVE...A FLOODING THREAT MAY CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. KLBB
CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR CEILINGS AND EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TO IFR OR BELOW AS RAINFALL
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE DRAWS NEARER COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING. AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS -SHRA
MOVE IN. HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SATURATED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS HERE BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  74  63  79  61 /  80  40  30  40  30
TULIA         65  73  65  82  62 /  80  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  74  65  80  62 /  80  60  50  40  30
LEVELLAND     65  75  65  75  63 /  80  50  50  50  30
LUBBOCK       65  75  65  77  63 /  80  60  50  40  30
DENVER CITY   65  76  66  75  63 /  80  60  40  50  30
BROWNFIELD    66  76  66  75  64 /  80  60  50  60  30
CHILDRESS     69  79  67  86  65 /  90  70  40  30  30
SPUR          67  78  67  82  64 /  90  70  60  40  30
ASPERMONT     68  83  69  84  66 /  90  70  50  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/07/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 191608 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1108 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND HAS LARGELY AVOIDED THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN BANDED AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS BROKEN BAND WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DID HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH IT...BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND MODEST STORM MOTION
HAS KEPT FLOODING CONCERNS LOW SO FAR. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING HAS ALSO KEPT
ACTIVITY IN THE SHOWER FORM...WITHOUT ANY THUNDER NOTED OF LATE.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OBVIOUSLY A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE SO ANY STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING A FLOODING
THREAT...WITH NEAR SATURATED SOILS AT MOST SPOTS TOO. THAT
SAID...THE SOUTH PLAINS MAY AVOID THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A GREATER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN THE CORE OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WE DID ALSO TAPER BACK ON THE THUNDER
MENTION THROUGH 18Z...BUT KEPT IT AS THE PREDOMINATE MODE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN FORCING SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR. STILL...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
PRIMARILY OF THE RAIN VARIETY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. ALL IN
ALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN CHECK AND THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS VALID THROUGH SATURDAY. IN FACT...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN SLOW TO EVOLVE...A FLOODING THREAT MAY CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. KLBB
CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR CEILINGS AND EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TO IFR OR BELOW AS RAINFALL
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE DRAWS NEARER COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING. AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS -SHRA
MOVE IN. HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SATURATED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS HERE BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  50  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  50  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 191608 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1108 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THROUGH MID-MORNING...THE BULK OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS BEEN
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING VERY
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND HAS LARGELY AVOIDED THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN BANDED AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THIS BROKEN BAND WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD AND DID HAVE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH IT...BUT THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND MODEST STORM MOTION
HAS KEPT FLOODING CONCERNS LOW SO FAR. THICK CLOUD COVER AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING HAS ALSO KEPT
ACTIVITY IN THE SHOWER FORM...WITHOUT ANY THUNDER NOTED OF LATE.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OBVIOUSLY A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE SO ANY STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING A FLOODING
THREAT...WITH NEAR SATURATED SOILS AT MOST SPOTS TOO. THAT
SAID...THE SOUTH PLAINS MAY AVOID THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH A GREATER RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
PERHAPS HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN THE CORE OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WE DID ALSO TAPER BACK ON THE THUNDER
MENTION THROUGH 18Z...BUT KEPT IT AS THE PREDOMINATE MODE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN FORCING SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR. STILL...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
PRIMARILY OF THE RAIN VARIETY WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. ALL IN
ALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY IN CHECK AND THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS VALID THROUGH SATURDAY. IN FACT...WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN SLOW TO EVOLVE...A FLOODING THREAT MAY CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. KLBB
CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR CEILINGS AND EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TO IFR OR BELOW AS RAINFALL
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE DRAWS NEARER COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING. AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS -SHRA
MOVE IN. HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SATURATED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS HERE BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  50  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  50  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

23/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 191152
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. KLBB
CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR CEILINGS AND EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TO IFR OR BELOW AS RAINFALL
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE DRAWS NEARER COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING. AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS -SHRA
MOVE IN. HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SATURATED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS HERE BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  60  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  70  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31






000
FXUS64 KLUB 190916
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  60  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  70  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 190916
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  60  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  70  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 190448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING THE KLBB TERMINAL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IFR CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE AT KLBB WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER
INTO LIFR TERRITORY AND POSSIBLY VLIFR. AS THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MORE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY FIRST
AFFECTING KLBB. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY
BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN THE TAF DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
EXPECTED STORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 182338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OF HIGHER IMPACT WILL BE LOW
CIGS/VISBYS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS TONIGHT OF THE OCCURRENCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON KEEPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LIKELY NON-VFR...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 182338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OF HIGHER IMPACT WILL BE LOW
CIGS/VISBYS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS TONIGHT OF THE OCCURRENCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON KEEPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LIKELY NON-VFR...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 182034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

05/23








000
FXUS64 KLUB 182034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

05/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 181750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
REMAINS OF TS ODILE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO DEEP MOISTURE...THIS WILL FAVOR
DEEP LIFT AND PREVAILING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR KLBB.
AIRMASS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KLBB APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY
DESTABILIZING AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES. A WESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
NOW IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH KCDS BY 20Z AND APPROACH
KLBB 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THUNDER
CHANCES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE NECESSARILY CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT KLBB BUT THE BREAKS ARE DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT OR TIME.
MORE STRATIFORM ENVIRONMENT SEEMS MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RISK KLBB ESPECIALLY AND MOSTLY IFR
POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
CWA...EXCLUDING HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE FA...WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS
GOING TO TEND TO CONVERGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD. POP...WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO ADDED TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  74  61  82  59 /  60  70  60  30  30
TULIA         64  77  63  80  62 /  50  70  60  50  30
PLAINVIEW     64  77  63  80  62 /  60  70  60  50  30
LEVELLAND     65  76  63  81  63 /  70  70  60  40  40
LUBBOCK       67  77  66  81  65 /  70  70  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   66  78  64  84  63 /  70  70  60  40  40
BROWNFIELD    67  78  64  83  64 /  70  70  60  40  40
CHILDRESS     67  83  67  80  66 /  50  50  60  60  40
SPUR          67  80  65  82  66 /  60  50  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     69  85  69  85  68 /  60  50  60  50  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

99/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 181750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
REMAINS OF TS ODILE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO DEEP MOISTURE...THIS WILL FAVOR
DEEP LIFT AND PREVAILING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR KLBB.
AIRMASS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KLBB APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY
DESTABILIZING AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES. A WESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
NOW IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH KCDS BY 20Z AND APPROACH
KLBB 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THUNDER
CHANCES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE NECESSARILY CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT KLBB BUT THE BREAKS ARE DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT OR TIME.
MORE STRATIFORM ENVIRONMENT SEEMS MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RISK KLBB ESPECIALLY AND MOSTLY IFR
POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
CWA...EXCLUDING HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE FA...WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS
GOING TO TEND TO CONVERGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD. POP...WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO ADDED TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  74  61  82  59 /  60  70  60  30  30
TULIA         64  77  63  80  62 /  50  70  60  50  30
PLAINVIEW     64  77  63  80  62 /  60  70  60  50  30
LEVELLAND     65  76  63  81  63 /  70  70  60  40  40
LUBBOCK       67  77  66  81  65 /  70  70  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   66  78  64  84  63 /  70  70  60  40  40
BROWNFIELD    67  78  64  83  64 /  70  70  60  40  40
CHILDRESS     67  83  67  80  66 /  50  50  60  60  40
SPUR          67  80  65  82  66 /  60  50  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     69  85  69  85  68 /  60  50  60  50  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 181505 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1005 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
CWA...EXCLUDING HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE FA...WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS
GOING TO TEND TO CONVERGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD. POP...WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO ADDED TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  70  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  70  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  90  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  65  80 /  90  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  80  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  80  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  70  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  90  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  80  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

05/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 181130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  60  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  40  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  60  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  65  80 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  90  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  90  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  40  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  60  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  60  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 181130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  60  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  40  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  60  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  65  80 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  90  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  90  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  40  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  60  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  60  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 180822
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

&&

.LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING EAST TO WEST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL VEER
TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
/WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  60  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  40  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  60  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  66  81 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  90  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  90  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  40  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  60  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  60  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

26/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 180822
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

&&

.LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING EAST TO WEST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL VEER
TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
/WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  60  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  40  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  60  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  66  81 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  90  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  90  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  40  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  60  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  60  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

26/29








000
FXUS64 KLUB 180444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT NEAR KCDS
AND WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO KLBB BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR AT KCDS. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VISBYS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KLBB
ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT WILL BE REDUCED IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 172334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT KLBB DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE MOIST
GROUND...LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PROGRESS. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BOTH
AT KLBB AND KCDS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KCDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 172041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities