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000
FXUS64 KLUB 182322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DECLINE A BIT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CHANCES
FOR -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION INITIALLY DEVELOPING WEST OF
KLBB...BUT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KLBB FIRST...AND
THUS A PROB30 MENTION HAS BEEN ADDED. FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...A VCSH
HAS BEEN INSERTED AT KCDS AS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
SAID TERMINAL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 182052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT TERM THRU TOMORROW
EVENING. WV CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMMA HEAD LOW OVER SO-CAL DRAWING
IN PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE
PACIFIC. THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE
ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS AND
THE NAM CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP FROM THE SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE. THE GFS IS QUICKER TO MOVE
THE PRECIP INTO THE FA BUT BOTH SEEM TO FAVOR OUR SW ZONES FOR THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE
WITH SUPPLYING THE MOST LIFT AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL BE DYNAMIC AS CAPE APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL
AT BEST AND LAPSE RATES ARE ANYTHING BUT STEEP. CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD
NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. FOR NOW I
HAVE KEPT POPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
NOTHING AT THE MOMENT INDICATES ANY CHANGE IS NEEDED. I HAVE KEPT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP COVERAGE OVER OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH
POPS AROUND 40 SCATTERED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ALDRICH

&&

.LONG TERM...
WE EXPECT A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SAT EVENING...BUT ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN OF THE
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...SO HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY
BROADLY PAINATED. AS THE PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE WHERE THE
SFC FEATURES WILL BE LOCATED AND WHERE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND LIFT
MAY BEST MATCH UP WITH UPPER-LIFT...WHICH WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME DRYING WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...WHILE MOISTURE WILL HOLD IN ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXPAND AND RAISE
POPS...CONCENTRATING ON THE EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED
CAPES COULD RUN NEAR 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...DEPENDING ON THE
IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER ON TEMPS...WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THE
SOUTH THAT NORTH. WE THINK THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS...AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR TWO THAT IS BRIEFLY
SEVERE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
THERE IS A HINT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST-
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME AIDED BY SOME WEAK LIFT IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SURVIVING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE/VE
KEPT POPS SILENT FOR NOW. SHORTWAVE RIDGING TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SW FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVECT MOISTURE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE CWA ON THE LOW-LVL JET WED MORNING AND THEN
DEVELOP CONVECTION EAST OF A DRYLINE LATE WED AFTN AND EVE. WE/VE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...WHILE IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND DRY UP ON THE
CAPROCK. AND...IF THE 12 UTC GFS AND ECMWF ARE LATCHING ON TO
SOMETHING...A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WEST BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING A GOOD SETUP FOR PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  74  49  75  49 /   0  30  40  20  10
TULIA         51  74  53  76  50 /   0  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  74  53  77  52 /   0  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     53  74  51  78  52 /   0  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       53  76  55  79  54 /   0  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   55  73  52  79  53 /  10  40  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    54  73  52  79  54 /  10  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     52  78  58  78  55 /   0  10  20  40  30
SPUR          53  77  55  81  58 /   0  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     55  77  58  81  60 /   0  10  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 181720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
CIGS AT LBB HAVE RISEN TO VFR WHILE CIGS AT CDS HAVE RISEN TO LOW
END MVFR BY 17Z. CIGS AT CDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS LOW
STRATUS MOVES EASTWARD. A HIGH BROKEN CLOUD LAYER AROUND 30 KFT
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. BETWEEN 12Z TO 18Z TOMORROW CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO LOWER STARTING AT LBB FIRST BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM NM
INTO WEST TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33/51










000
FXUS64 KLUB 181111
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
611 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS LOOK TO LINGER QUITE A BIT LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. LOW CIGS AT LBB SHOULD RISE TO MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR NEAR 17Z. SIMILAR STORY
AT CDS...ALBEIT A SOLID 2-3 HOURS LATER DUE TO THICKER STRATUS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO TREND SLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
MRNG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93








000
FXUS64 KLUB 180947
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
447 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT BUT MOIST EASTERLIES HAD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF
3AM COMPLETE WITH ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS. DEPTH OF THIS STRATUS IS
QUITE SHALLOW...SO WE STILL EXPECT INSOLATION TO DO ITS JOB AND
ERODE THIS COMPLETELY BY LATE MORNING. BIGGEST EXCEPTION TO THIS
LOOKS TO BE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS SATURATED DEPTH IS
DEEPER AND ALSO WINDS HERE WILL BE DELAYED IN VEERING SOUTH
COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER WEST. WHAT FOG HAS MANAGED TO DEVELOP
THUS FAR HAS NOT BEEN PROBLEMATIC...BUT UNTIL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
RISE BY MID-MORNING WE/LL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION INTACT AREA
WIDE.

BY MIDDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED ATOP THE SOUTH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOON TO
SET ITS SIGHTS ON THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS ALREADY
TRENDING A BIT DIRTY FROM A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS THAT
SHOULD REACH OUR DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON. ADD TO THIS MOIST
SOUTHERLY WINDS SUPPRESSING MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE RESULT WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.

ONLY CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO NIX THE MENTION
OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT IN OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES. LARGELY
MERIDIONAL PRESENTATION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT CERTAINLY POINT TO A DELAYED ONSET OF HEIGHT FALLS AND
DEEPER SATURATION NECESSARY FOR PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODEL DATA FROM TONIGHT PAINT A COMPLICATED PICTURE FOR RAIN
CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND THERE WERE SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ALL HAVE A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
OPENING UP INTO A DEEP TROF AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE EJECT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROF AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AROUND SUNRISE AND SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-DAY. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE MAIN TROF PASSING OVER THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE...FINALLY PASSING EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES HAS CHANGED THE TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION AND THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKS AS IF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY
THOUGHT AND HAVE REMOVED POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
STARTED OFF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. AS
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG
BUT KEEP THE ROLLING PLAINS UNDER A STRONG CAP. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE IN AS CAP
STRENGTH IS WEAKER CLOSER TO THE MAIN TROF. ALL THE SYNOPTIC
MODELS PLAY OUT THIS SCENARIO AND THE DETERMINISTIC TTU WRF HAS
ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HOWEVER ARE
SOMEWHAT LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT STILL FAVOR
A PROGRESSION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL THIS LENDS
TOWARDS LESS COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION AND OPTED TO REDUCE POPS BY
10 PERCENT IN THE PEAK TIME FRAME OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.

IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM THE RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH
PREVENTS MUCH FROM DEVELOPING WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN TROUGH TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE REGION.
MODELS GENERATE A MORE OPTIMISTIC 1000 J/KG SBCAPE OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS MAINLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL COOLING WITH THE
APPROACHING TROF. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF
SURFACE BASED HEATING COMPARED TO WHAT THE MODELS ARE HOPING FOR.
MODERATE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT POSSIBLY HELPING IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT BY
ERODING THE CAP SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING. PUTTING THIS ALL
TOGETHER MEANS SUNDAY WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR PRECIP WHILE A BIT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE TROF
AND REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. THIS WEAK DRYLINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS
LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT
LOW- END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH 00Z. WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
MIX EAST THROUGH THE DAY...LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ANY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROF MAY
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE IF MODELS START TO REFLECT A SLOWER TROF
PROGRESSION.

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF FOR MONDAY
WHICH WILL MAINLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALSO PUSH IN BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 40 DEG F IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE AND WE START TO SEE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A BROAD TROF WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AND WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP REDEVELOP THE LEE SURFACE TROF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STORMS AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND MODELS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION AS A RESULT.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS REALLY START TO DIFFER. ECMWF BRINGS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING DRIVEN
SOUTHWARD BY THE TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OUT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE TROF AND THEN SWINGS IT OUT A FULL DAY TO
DAY AND A HALF LATER THAN THE ECMWF. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A MORE
WINDY/DUSTY DAY FOR THURSDAY. TOO MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS OF THE FORECAST TO WARRANT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS THIS
TIME BUT THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE DRYLINE...
SOMETHING WE WILL KEEP OUR EYE ON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  49  75  49  75 /   0   0  30  30  20
TULIA         71  51  76  53  77 /   0   0  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     70  52  77  53  79 /   0   0  20  30  20
LEVELLAND     72  53  77  54  79 /   0   0  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  53  79  55  80 /   0   0  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   73  55  76  54  80 /   0  10  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    72  54  76  54  80 /   0  10  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     70  52  79  56  81 /   0   0  10  30  30
SPUR          73  53  78  57  83 /   0   0  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     73  55  78  60  83 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14







000
FXUS64 KLUB 180459
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1159 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCDS AS LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY
VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST. VIS HAS ALSO DROPPED TO MVFR CRITIERIA
COURTESY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...AS LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS
ENSUED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS
PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND IFR FOG. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT
KLBB WERE A TAD BIT STRONGER THAN AT KCDS /AND DEWPOINTS WERE
LOWER/...HENCE LIKELY WHY FOG HAS YET TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT OVERNIGHT AND VEER FURTHER TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST. IT IS THEREFORE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL. HAVE INSERTED A
POSSIBILITY FOR THIS IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW MID- MORNING...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
WILL SCOUR OUT. SCT- BKN VFR DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. WITH WINDS
COMMENCING TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KCDS HAS DROPPED BELOW
10SM...THOUGH STILL VFR BUT THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED PATCHY FOG INITIALLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THEN EXPANDING IT TO THE SOUTH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 180317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1017 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE. WITH WINDS
COMMENCING TO VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. KCDS HAS DROPPED BELOW
10SM...THOUGH STILL VFR BUT THIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF FOG POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED PATCHY FOG INITIALLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THEN EXPANDING IT TO THE SOUTH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
KLBB CLOUD DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH KCDS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/HAZE HAPPENED EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN AT BOTH
TAF SITES...AND WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING
TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF FOG IS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MVFR VIS FOR
FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES ATTM. TOMORROW MID- MORNING ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL SCOUR OUT AS WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 172322
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
KLBB CLOUD DECKS HAVE RISEN TO VFR CRITERIA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH KCDS DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE THE FILTERING OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/HAZE HAPPENED EARLIER THIS MORNING/AFTN AT BOTH
TAF SITES...AND WITH LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRING
TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF FOG IS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE ADDED MVFR VIS FOR
FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES ATTM. TOMORROW MID- MORNING ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL SCOUR OUT AS WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       44  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 172010
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOOP OF WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE SHOWING STILL A BIT OF JET ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH SOME MID LEVEL ENHANCEMENT OVER THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP
THAT AREA PER KCDS METAR...A FEW WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS...AND
AREA RADARS. TIMING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MODEL SOLUTION
SHIFTING LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z AND WILL KEEP
POPS JUST BELOW 15 PCT ATTM.

SOME DRY ADVECTION COMING INTO THE NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE EAST. WITH MODELS SHOWING WINDS
SHIFTING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WOULD EXPECT
THIS MOISTURE TO EITHER HANG IN OR RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY IF IT DOES
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET ATTM. PROSPECT OF SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS BUT
WITH CLEARING DURING THE AFTN AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD.
PATTERN WILL FAVOR WARMER TEMPS. 12Z MOS SHOWING THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WARMING ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF WARMER
DEPENDING IN PART OF TIMING AND DEGREE OF CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO HOLD ON FOR THIS WEEKEND THO TIMING AND
COVERAGE SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS. THEY DO
SEEM TO HAVE A CONSENSUS THAT PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. FROM THERE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHEN
CONVECTION WILL START WITH THE NAM FIRING CONVECTION STARTING ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE AROUND LATE MORNING...THE GFS WAITING UNTIL
LATE EVENING...AND THE ECMWF STARTING AROUND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW I HAVE GONE WITH THE /SLOWER/ TIMES AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE POP
IN OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS ZONES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. CAPE OVER 500 J/KG WILL BE
HELPFUL WITH AIDING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE LARGEST CAPE VALUES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WHICH IS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE AS THEY SHOW MOIST
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND NO SHEAR OF ANY
SIGNIFICANCE. SOME STORMS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AS THEY DECAY. THE NAM DISSIPATES CONVECTION QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE HAVING AN ENCORE SUNDAY EVENING AS IT PUSHES A
FRONT/DRYLINE THROUGH. MOST MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS
HINT AT SUCH HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FOR
THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TAPER THEM OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY REASON I HAVE NOT GONE HIGHER WITH POPS IS DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY. I HAVE RAISED POPS SUNDAY EVENING TO JUST BELOW MENTION
FOR A SECOND PASS OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT AM RELUCTANT TO GO HIGHER
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT IT WILL HAPPEN. HOPEFULLY THE OUTCOME
WILL BE MORE CLEARER TOMORROW AND I CAN ACT ACCORDINGLY.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD QUICKLY
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
EVENING DEVELOPING A DRYLINE. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH TRYING TO FIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE READILY
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS HAS
NOT BEEN CONSISTENT EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHO HAS STAYED ON THE DRY
SIDE. IF ANYTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS IT WILL BE WIND AND PROBABLY
DUST. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S BY THURSDAY. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  72  49  75  48 /   0   0  20  40  30
TULIA         43  73  50  75  50 /   0   0  10  40  30
PLAINVIEW     42  73  51  74  51 /   0   0  10  40  30
LEVELLAND     42  72  53  73  52 /   0   0  20  40  40
LUBBOCK       43  72  53  74  53 /   0   0  10  40  40
DENVER CITY   44  72  53  73  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    43  73  54  74  54 /   0   0  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     47  73  52  77  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
SPUR          45  74  53  76  55 /  10   0  10  40  40
ASPERMONT     49  75  53  79  57 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51







000
FXUS64 KLUB 171637
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NERN NM AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MAY STILL BE DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH. ONCE THAT IS OVER THE
TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD. AS A RESULT LIGHT RAIN HAS
BEEN SLOW TO FORM...ALTHOUGH SOME RECENT SIGNS OF EXPANSION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES PER KAMA 88D. 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ERN PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH BETTER CHANCES POINTS EAST. WILL EXPAND RAIN
MENTION A BIT TO THE WEST THIS AFTN BUT KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE
RANGE GIVEN THIS SLIGHLY SLOWER TIMING TO THE TROUGH.

AT THE SFC...SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN
LINE WITH FCST. LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND IT MORE THAN EXPECTED
BUT STILL SHOULD MIX EWD SOME AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY FCST AS A RESULT AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO REMAINING
GRID ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORNING TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KCDS BUT
IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL AND CHANCES STILL SMALL ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
OF THAT TAF. MVFR CIGS TO BE PERSISTENT AT KCDS THROUGH THE DAY
AND MAY HANG ON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FILLING BACK IN AND
POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT.

AT KLBB...A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BEFORE SHIFTING EWD. POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR OR IFR
CIGS TOWARD 12Z AS A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER BOTH KCDS AND KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SWING THE LIGHT EAST WIND TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH. A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS BUT COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER AT KLBB AND INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF
FORECAST BUT KCDS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  20   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 171152 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER BOTH KCDS AND KLBB THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SWING THE LIGHT EAST WIND TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH. A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION MAY BRING
PRECIPITATION TO KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN IN ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS BUT COULD SEE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT HIGHER AT KLBB AND INCLUDED IT IN THIS TAF
FORECAST BUT KCDS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  40   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLUB 170844
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS NOT BUDGED OR PERHAPS HAS SLIGHTLY SAGGED SOUTH OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST ACROSS THE NM BORDER NEAR DORA BASED
ON BOTH SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS CENTERED NEAR WINK.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER WHICH HAS IMPACTED
HOW FAST THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. ALOFT...00Z UPA
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE 250 HPA JET CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY HELP A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO
DEEPEN A BIT WHILE ALSO SLIDING EAST AT THE SAME TIME.  UNTIL THIS
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST...DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  IF ONE BELIEVES THE MODELS...THE FRONT
SHOULD START PUSHING SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN SINCE THERE IS NO DEEP INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AROUND CHILDRESS.  THIS COINCIDES WITH
WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250 HPA JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
EASTERLY WIND FROM 850 TO AROUND 800 HPA WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  COMBINING THIS WITH THE
WEAK LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND APPROACHING JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME RAIN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT SPARSE AT FIRST BUT MAY GRADUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME.  AMOUNTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKER BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
PLACES THAT PICK UP A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH.  INCREASED POPS A
BIT MORE TO COVER THIS BUT STILL LIMIT THE BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.  THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF RAIN THAT LINGER IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME IN THIS AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE REGION THEN.
HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND IT APPEARS TO
FINALLY CUT OFF BY THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS AND JET EXIT REGION
ARE EAST OF THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER AS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT THICKER AHEAD OF THE TROF.

GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH AS WIND GOES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW
CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING SINCE WE DO KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SO
EXPECT NEAR 40 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW 50S IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES...CENTERED AROUND SATURDAY...WITH
MILD TO WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEPARTS EAST
AND LEE TROUGHING IS RENEWED TO OUR WEST. THE DAY MAY START OUT WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS...PERHAPS PATCHY FOG...BUT THEY SHOULD BREAK BY
AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SEASONABLY WARM DAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN
TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF RELEVANCE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA...MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BROAD DAMPING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
ON SATURDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY
LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MEAN TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...GRAZING THE
SOUTH PLAINS TO THE NORTH. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE COULD PROVIDE JUST
ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BEFORE 12Z. BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL FOLLOW...
EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE PASSING MEAN TROUGH AND THIS DOES
CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF BEST RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...BUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS STILL APPEAR WARRANTED. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
KEEP AT LEAST LOW STORM CHANCES IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WELL INTO EASTER DAY. OVERALL ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH WE DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION TO SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PWATS ARE
STILL PROGGED TO IMPROVE TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH ON
SATURDAY AS THE TROPOSPHERE BECOMES QUITE MOIST...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FOR SPOTS THAT CAN GET UNDER A
SHOWER/STORM. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED...MODELS STILL
SHOW ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR
TWO. POTENTIAL STORM INTENSITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BE JUST EAST
OF THE CWA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE WEEKEND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING...WITH
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING TRAVERSES THE HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY ATTEMPT TO SETUP ON
TUESDAY...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED AT OUR SOUTHERN LATITUDE. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL HELP FURTHER
TIGHTEN THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGE TROUGH...AND HOW MUCH WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER WEST TEXAS...MAKE THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON DRYLINE UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST ITERATION OF
THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE EASTERN DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER...WHEREAS THE GFS IS CURRENTLY SELLING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE NEAR
THE I-27/US-87 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WE HAVE CHOSEN
TO KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT 10-13 PERCENT RANGE...THOUGH IT WILL BEAR
WATCH...BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE WEATHER RISK. REGARDLESS...WARM WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS PERHAPS PUSHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  39  75  50  75 /  10   0   0  20  40
TULIA         61  41  73  52  75 /  10   0   0  10  40
PLAINVIEW     62  41  73  52  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
LEVELLAND     66  43  75  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
LUBBOCK       66  45  74  54  74 /  10   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   67  46  74  54  73 /  10   0   0  20  40
BROWNFIELD    67  45  74  55  74 /  10   0   0  20  40
CHILDRESS     60  46  76  53  77 /  40   0   0  10  40
SPUR          65  48  75  55  76 /  10   0   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     69  51  77  54  79 /  20   0   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 170505
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1205 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE STAYED UP A BIT TONIGHT AS EXPECTED
/15-20 KTS/. WINDS WILL BACK OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
COURTESY OF A COLD FRONT. LOW VFR-MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL DEVELOP
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH MVFR CLOUDS MORE LIKELY AT
KCDS. COULD SEE -SHRA ALSO AT KCDS TOMORROW MORNING AND
THUS...WILL CONTINUE A PROB30 MENTION ATTM. LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT LEADS TO PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS AT
KCDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CLOUDS AT KLBB.

&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT NEAR A HEREFORD TO BORGER LINE AT 130 PM TO MOVE SWD INTO
THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARP SW TO NE ORIENTATION AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SERN NM SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SSE AND THE INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS WITH IT. LIKELY WILL
NOT SEE THE SERN ZONES CLEARED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING BTWN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS NOT TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH MET AND MAV MOS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND RAW MODELS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING A PERIOD OF DEEP LIFT
ACROSS MAINLY THE NERN QUARTER OF THE FCST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE DEEP LIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT WELL PHASED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED NWWD TOWARD THE FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INITIALLY AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. STILL...
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH SOME
CHANCE OF .01 INCH TO .05 INCH OF PRECIP. PREVIOUS POP AND QPF FCST
IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME LOOK FINE. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
FROM HAPPY TO CHILDRESS TO INCREASE POPS JUST INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
CRITERIA THERE. FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING
AND WILL KEEP POST-18Z POPS BELOW 15 PCT.

LONG TERM...
WHEN ITS DRY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHO YOU GONNA CALL? DROUGHT BUSTER.
WHILE THAT WON/T EXACTLY BE THE CASE THIS WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WILL BRING IN A LOW CLOUD
DECK...PROBABLY STRATUS...THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE TO AID PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIME OF THE TROF/PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE ECMWF
AS IT HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...AND IT ISN/T SO
MUCH AS TROF TIMING AS IT IS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF. THE
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CMC KEEP THE TROF MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH GIVING US MAXIMUM USE OF THE
ENERGY IT PROVIDES. THE GFS DEGRADES THE TROF TO AN EXTREMELY
ELONGATED TROF WITH A SERIOUS POS TILT. THE PRECIP THE GFS PRODUCES
MOVES THROUGH WHILE THE TROF IS STILL WELL PRONOUNCED TO THE WEST.
THE NAM ONLY GOES THRU TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT APPEARS TO HOLD THE TROF
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND PROVIDE CAPE OVER 700 J/KG AT TIMES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BEING IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE BUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

DESPITE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROF THE FA SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME A LEE TROF WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE A
DRYLINE IS PROGGED FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF IT.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HINTED AT DRYLINE CONVECTION STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD...IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS A
POSSIBLE HINT OF CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE BUT IS OTHERWISE DRY.
FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  39  70  48 /  10  10   0  10  20
TULIA         41  62  40  70  49 /  20  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     43  63  41  70  50 /  10  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     43  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       47  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   46  67  45  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    45  69  45  71  53 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     46  62  45  73  52 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          48  66  44  73  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  48  75  54 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 162321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECLINE A BIT SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...BUT STAY UP IN THE 14-16 KT RANGE TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST COURTESY OF A
COLD FRONT. LOW VFR-MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR CLOUD DECKS MORE SO AT
KCDS. COULD SEE -SHRA ALSO AT KCDS TOMORROW MORNING...AND HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT NEAR A HEREFORD TO BORGER LINE AT 130 PM TO MOVE SWD INTO
THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARP SW TO NE ORIENTATION AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SERN NM SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SSE AND THE INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS WITH IT. LIKELY WILL
NOT SEE THE SERN ZONES CLEARED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING BTWN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS NOT TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH MET AND MAV MOS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND RAW MODELS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING A PERIOD OF DEEP LIFT
ACROSS MAINLY THE NERN QUARTER OF THE FCST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE DEEP LIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT WELL PHASED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED NWWD TOWARD THE FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INITIALLY AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. STILL...
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH SOME
CHANCE OF .01 INCH TO .05 INCH OF PRECIP. PREVIOUS POP AND QPF FCST
IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME LOOK FINE. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
FROM HAPPY TO CHILDRESS TO INCREASE POPS JUST INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
CRITERIA THERE. FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING
AND WILL KEEP POST-18Z POPS BELOW 15 PCT.

LONG TERM...
WHEN ITS DRY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHO YOU GONNA CALL? DROUGHT BUSTER.
WHILE THAT WON/T EXACTLY BE THE CASE THIS WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WILL BRING IN A LOW CLOUD
DECK...PROBABLY STRATUS...THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE TO AID PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIME OF THE TROF/PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE ECMWF
AS IT HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...AND IT ISN/T SO
MUCH AS TROF TIMING AS IT IS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF. THE
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CMC KEEP THE TROF MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH GIVING US MAXIMUM USE OF THE
ENERGY IT PROVIDES. THE GFS DEGRADES THE TROF TO AN EXTREMELY
ELONGATED TROF WITH A SERIOUS POS TILT. THE PRECIP THE GFS PRODUCES
MOVES THROUGH WHILE THE TROF IS STILL WELL PRONOUNCED TO THE WEST.
THE NAM ONLY GOES THRU TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT APPEARS TO HOLD THE TROF
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND PROVIDE CAPE OVER 700 J/KG AT TIMES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BEING IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE BUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

DESPITE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROF THE FA SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME A LEE TROF WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE A
DRYLINE IS PROGGED FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF IT.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HINTED AT DRYLINE CONVECTION STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD...IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS A
POSSIBLE HINT OF CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE BUT IS OTHERWISE DRY.
FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  39  70  48 /  10  10   0  10  20
TULIA         41  62  40  70  49 /  20  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     43  63  41  70  50 /  10  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     43  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       47  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   46  67  45  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    45  69  45  71  53 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     46  62  45  73  52 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          48  66  44  73  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  48  75  54 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 161950
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT NEAR A HEREFORD TO BORGER LINE AT 130 PM TO MOVE SWD INTO
THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A SHARP SW TO NE ORIENTATION AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS SERN NM SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SSE AND THE INVERTED
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS WITH IT. LIKELY WILL
NOT SEE THE SERN ZONES CLEARED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING BTWN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS NOT TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH MET AND MAV MOS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST AND RAW MODELS.

OTHER ITEM OF NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED TO CROSS THE PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY PRODUCING A PERIOD OF DEEP LIFT
ACROSS MAINLY THE NERN QUARTER OF THE FCST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...
THE DEEP LIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT WELL PHASED
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULLED NWWD TOWARD THE FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH
INITIALLY AND BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. STILL...
SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER WITH SOME
CHANCE OF .01 INCH TO .05 INCH OF PRECIP. PREVIOUS POP AND QPF FCST
IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME LOOK FINE. THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA
FROM HAPPY TO CHILDRESS TO INCREASE POPS JUST INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
CRITERIA THERE. FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE MORNING
AND WILL KEEP POST-18Z POPS BELOW 15 PCT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WHEN ITS DRY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHO YOU GONNA CALL? DROUGHT BUSTER.
WHILE THAT WON/T EXACTLY BE THE CASE THIS WEEKEND...IT DOES LOOK
LIKE WE WILL GET SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AFTER THE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA WILL BRING IN A LOW CLOUD
DECK...PROBABLY STRATUS...THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY OUR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES. THIS MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE TO AID PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING SOMETIME
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIME OF THE TROF/PRECIP WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH
SLOWER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW I HAVE LEANED MORE WITH THE ECMWF
AS IT HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...AND IT ISN/T SO
MUCH AS TROF TIMING AS IT IS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROF. THE
ECMWF ALONG WITH THE CMC KEEP THE TROF MORE PRONOUNCED WITH A
NEUTRAL TILT AS IT PASSES THROUGH GIVING US MAXIMUM USE OF THE
ENERGY IT PROVIDES. THE GFS DEGRADES THE TROF TO AN EXTREMELY
ELONGATED TROF WITH A SERIOUS POS TILT. THE PRECIP THE GFS PRODUCES
MOVES THROUGH WHILE THE TROF IS STILL WELL PRONOUNCED TO THE WEST.
THE NAM ONLY GOES THRU TO 00Z SUNDAY BUT APPEARS TO HOLD THE TROF
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST
WITH PWATS OVER 1 INCH AND PROVIDE CAPE OVER 700 J/KG AT TIMES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BEING IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUNDINGS
ARE MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE BUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

DESPITE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE TROF THE FA SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
DECENT PRECIP CHANCES BY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR TO
OUR EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DURING THIS TIME A LEE TROF WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE A
DRYLINE IS PROGGED FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO DISAGREE ON THE HANDLING OF IT.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HINTED AT DRYLINE CONVECTION STARTING
LATE WEDNESDAY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD...IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS A
POSSIBLE HINT OF CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE BUT IS OTHERWISE DRY.
FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION DUE TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  62  39  70  48 /  10  10   0  10  20
TULIA         41  62  40  70  49 /  20  10   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     43  63  41  70  50 /  10  10   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     43  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       45  67  44  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   46  67  45  71  52 /  10  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    45  69  45  71  53 /  10  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     46  62  45  73  52 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          48  66  44  73  53 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  48  75  54 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51








000
FXUS64 KLUB 161713
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE
PAST BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE WRN OKLA TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD 12Z WITH
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KCDS. KLBB LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ESEWD ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS KCDS...BUT THAT CHANCE STILL TOO LOW TO INSERT
MENTION IN THE TAF ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH ALL OF TODAY. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KLBB BUT 15 TO 25
KTS AT KCDS. WIND WILL GO LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AFTER SUNSET AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. KCDS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR OR
NOT.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS DETECTED BY THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SODAR LOCATED AT REESE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH HAS HELPED A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOP.  THE TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE
LINE AND MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE THERE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  GUIDANCE HAS
COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  THE SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD SEE LOWER SPEEDS THANKS TO BEING CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS.  THIS POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS
THE NM/CO BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIDING IT EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COOLER AIR INITIALLY SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE AS DEWPOINTS
START TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NONE OF THE MODELS
GENERATE ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE LIFT INITIALLY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO LOW 50S IN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
MENTION FOR TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STILL BELOW MENTION...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES...
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN CURRENTLY IS A RELATIVELY BENIGN
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EMERGE OVER
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM AND REINFORCED BY THE CLOSER SECONDARY WAVE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOSE
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TAKE ITS
TIME ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE STARVED OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAP IMPROVING MOISTURE AS IT EMERGES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND CHILDRESS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORED SPOT FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN OUR AREA...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY /LIKELY FAVORING THURSDAY MORNING/.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST OF A BRICE TO PADUCAH LINE. IT WILL
BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FROPA...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING...PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WE DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL THEN
RETURN FRIDAY...AND ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP TO
AROUND MID-APRIL AVERAGES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN
TROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ACT TO BOOST PWATS TO LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN
SOME TIME...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING WITH THE UPPER WAVE...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THOUGH THE BEST WINDOW FOR
RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...THOUGH FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO DECENT RAINS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SLIM
RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY EASTER
MORNING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITHOUT ANY
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WARRANT POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY GET MORE INTERESTING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MORE CLASSIC SPRINGTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY LOCALLY...THOUGH
MUCH NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
HOWEVER...20 FT WIND SPEEDS WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  RED FLAG
AND EVEN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR THOSE PRODUCTS.  ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST UNDER CRITICAL
RED FLAG VALUES.  WIND WILL SLOWLY SWING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE USUALLY THE STRONGEST.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL GO WITH A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT INSTEAD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  39  62  39  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         77  41  61  40  73 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  43  62  40  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  42  67  43  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  44  65  43  75 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   77  44  69  44  74 /   0   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    77  44  69  45  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  60  44  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
SPUR          76  49  65  43  77 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  52  69  46  78 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 161124 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH ALL OF TODAY. WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AT KLBB BUT 15 TO 25
KTS AT KCDS. WIND WILL GO LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST AFTER SUNSET AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS FORECAST. KCDS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS
TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR OR
NOT.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS DETECTED BY THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SODAR LOCATED AT REESE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH HAS HELPED A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOP.  THE TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE
LINE AND MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE THERE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  GUIDANCE HAS
COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  THE SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD SEE LOWER SPEEDS THANKS TO BEING CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS.  THIS POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS
THE NM/CO BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIDING IT EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COOLER AIR INITIALLY SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE AS DEWPOINTS
START TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NONE OF THE MODELS
GENERATE ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE LIFT INITIALLY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO LOW 50S IN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
MENTION FOR TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STILL BELOW MENTION...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES...
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN CURRENTLY IS A RELATIVELY BENIGN
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EMERGE OVER
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM AND REINFORCED BY THE CLOSER SECONDARY WAVE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOSE
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TAKE ITS
TIME ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE STARVED OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAP IMPROVING MOISTURE AS IT EMERGES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND CHILDRESS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORED SPOT FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN OUR AREA...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY /LIKELY FAVORING THURSDAY MORNING/.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST OF A BRICE TO PADUCAH LINE. IT WILL
BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FROPA...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING...PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WE DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL THEN
RETURN FRIDAY...AND ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP TO
AROUND MID-APRIL AVERAGES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN
TROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ACT TO BOOST PWATS TO LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN
SOME TIME...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING WITH THE UPPER WAVE...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THOUGH THE BEST WINDOW FOR
RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...THOUGH FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO DECENT RAINS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SLIM
RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY EASTER
MORNING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITHOUT ANY
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WARRANT POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY GET MORE INTERESTING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MORE CLASSIC SPRINGTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY LOCALLY...THOUGH
MUCH NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
HOWEVER...20 FT WIND SPEEDS WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  RED FLAG
AND EVEN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR THOSE PRODUCTS.  ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST UNDER CRITICAL
RED FLAG VALUES.  WIND WILL SLOWLY SWING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE USUALLY THE STRONGEST.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL GO WITH A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT INSTEAD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  39  62  39  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         77  41  61  40  73 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  43  62  40  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  42  67  43  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  44  65  43  75 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   77  44  69  44  74 /   0   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    77  44  69  45  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  60  44  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
SPUR          76  49  65  43  77 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  52  69  46  78 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLUB 160851
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS
MORNING THANKS TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AS DETECTED BY THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SODAR LOCATED AT REESE.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
ZONAL FLOW WAS IN PLACE ALOFT WHICH HAS HELPED A LEE SURFACE TROF
DEVELOP.  THE TROF AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE
LINE AND MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE THERE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY.  THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WIND SPEEDS PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  GUIDANCE HAS
COME DOWN A FEW KNOTS WITH WIND SPEEDS BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
AROUND 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  THE SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD SEE LOWER SPEEDS THANKS TO BEING CLOSER TO THE TROF
AXIS.  THIS POSES AN INTERESTING PROBLEM FOR FIRE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON...SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...MODELS DEEPEN A SHORTWAVE TROF ACROSS
THE NM/CO BORDER WHILE ALSO SLIDING IT EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INITIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AS THE COOLER AIR INITIALLY SLIDES
SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE AS DEWPOINTS
START TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  EVEN WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NONE OF THE MODELS
GENERATE ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO MOST OF THE LIFT INITIALLY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE QUITE A SPREAD FROM THE UPPER 30S IN A
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE TO LOW 50S IN THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
MENTION FOR TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STILL BELOW MENTION...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
MAIN INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES...
INITIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OF CONCERN CURRENTLY IS A RELATIVELY BENIGN
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RACE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EMERGE OVER
THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
SYSTEM AND REINFORCED BY THE CLOSER SECONDARY WAVE...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO NOSE
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT TAKE ITS
TIME ADVANCING THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE STARVED OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAP IMPROVING MOISTURE AS IT EMERGES
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND CHILDRESS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORED SPOT FOR THE COMBINATION OF THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT IN OUR AREA...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY /LIKELY FAVORING THURSDAY MORNING/.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS WE HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY NORTH AND EAST OF A BRICE TO PADUCAH LINE. IT WILL
BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
FROPA...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK. THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING...PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WE DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL THEN
RETURN FRIDAY...AND ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING BACK UP TO
AROUND MID-APRIL AVERAGES. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM OF INTEREST BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN
TROUGH...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE A GOOD TAP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE PACIFIC...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ACT TO BOOST PWATS TO LEVELS WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN
SOME TIME...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL NOT BE OVERWHELMING WITH THE UPPER WAVE...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH IN THE RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND WE EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...THOUGH THE BEST WINDOW FOR
RAIN CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
EVEN SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM...THOUGH FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO DECENT RAINS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. SLIM
RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY EASTER
MORNING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK FRONT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DRYING MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER/STORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITHOUT ANY
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WARRANT POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT. THINGS MAY EVENTUALLY GET MORE INTERESTING TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR MORE CLASSIC SPRINGTIME DRYLINE ACTIVITY LOCALLY...THOUGH
MUCH NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
HOWEVER...20 FT WIND SPEEDS WHERE THE LOWEST RH VALUES ARE WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  RED FLAG
AND EVEN INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR THOSE PRODUCTS.  ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST UNDER CRITICAL
RED FLAG VALUES.  WIND WILL SLOWLY SWING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE USUALLY THE STRONGEST.
BECAUSE CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND WILL GO WITH A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT INSTEAD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  39  62  39  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
TULIA         77  41  61  40  73 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  43  62  40  73 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     77  42  67  43  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  44  65  43  75 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   77  44  69  44  74 /   0   0  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    77  44  69  45  74 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     78  49  60  44  76 /   0  10  30  10   0
SPUR          76  49  65  43  77 /   0  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     76  52  69  46  78 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 160451
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS. A 40+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 500-600 FEET AGL
AS MEASURED AT THE REESE CENTER SODAR FROM THE WEST TEXAS MESONET
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN
15-20 KNOTS BENEATH THIS JET SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT A LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CALL...BUT AS IS TYPICAL THIS IS A CLOSE CALL
AGAIN. JET WILL BE OVER KCDS IN THE MORNING AND WILL MIX OUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING THERE BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST MID TO LATE MORNING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO THE WEST. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT TO BACK SOME TOWARD WESTERLY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTL ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SFC
PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE
RECENTLY-ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH TO SSW WINDS
STAYING UP THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...IN TURN
RESULTING IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THE RECORD COLD OF LAST NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS LOW TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE PERSISTENT AND AT TIMES GUSTY
SOUTH TO SSW WINDS. 12Z MOS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO SIG
CHANGES ATTM. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAIR OF THE UPPER
TROUGHS MAY IMPINGE ON THE NWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WOULD
EXPECT THAT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AS
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE CNTL PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH WHILE
BRINGING IN A FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BUT SHOULD
STAY ABOVE FREEZING. MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...TEND TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRONT. I HAVE KEPT THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT AM
SKEPTICAL OF THAT. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE FRIDAY AS RETURN
FLOW QUICKLY REESTABLISHES AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DEEP LOW AROUND SOUTHERN CA. MODELS TEND TO AGREE...FOR
THE MOST PART...ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES CLOSER.
UNLIKE WHAT THE STORY HAS BEEN LATELY...THE FRONT THAT WILL HAVE
MOVED THROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL NOT COMPLETELY PUSH OUT WHAT MOISTURE
THAT IS AVAILABLE AND WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS PUSHED OUT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE BACK IN THANKS TO QUICK RETURN FLOW AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROF APPROACHES STARTING
EARLY SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP ACTIVITY WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WHILE THE ECMWF PROVIDES PRECIP IN ONE SHOT
WITH THE MAIN TROF. AS THE NAM ONLY GOES OUT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...I HAVE GONE MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS UNTIL THE
FINER DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT AS TIME GETS CLOSER. GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP CHANCES I HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CHANCE.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ALL IS NOT
LOST...AT LEAST IN THE MINDS OF THE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
GREATLY ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE LOW CLOSED AND TO THE NORTH. DESPITE BEING PLACED UNDERNEATH A
RIDGE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...UNLIKELY GIVEN NO
REAL AVAILABLE LIFT. THE GFS...AS IT HAS TRIED TO DO FOR QUITE SOME
TIME NOW...MOVES A DEEP CLOSED LOW INTO THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE LOW IT PROVIDES CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF IT. WE SHALL
SEE...BUT I AM SKEPTICAL GIVEN THE MODELS TRACK RECORD THAT FAR OUT.
ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  75  38  57  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
TULIA         38  75  40  58  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
PLAINVIEW     38  75  41  60  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  77  41  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
LUBBOCK       40  76  44  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  78  42  66  39 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    41  78  44  67  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  74  49  61  38 /   0   0  10  20  10
SPUR          39  75  47  69  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     40  74  51  68  41 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99/05







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