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000
FXUS64 KLUB 261736
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING THROUGH
ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LEADING TO LIGHT SURFACE WIND
COMPONENTS AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY INITIALLY BRING SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. THIS EVENING MAY WELL BE FANTASTIC
FLYING WEATHER FOR GA PILOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AN EMBEDDED RIPPLE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A BIT OF A TROUGH
FORMS FROM EL PASO TOWARD HERMOSILLO.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  AT
2AM...THIS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
BY MID MORNING.  BRIEFLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP JUST A
TAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING TODAY...CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS.  STORMY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA...THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UP ACROSS IOWA INTO NRN MN/WI...AND LIGHT RAIN
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TRAVEL SAFELY!

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING THUS PROMOTING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILST UA TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE MID-WEST
AND ERN CONUS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO /60S/...AS THE ONCE NRLY SFC WINDS PROVIDED
BY TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER TO A SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY
FLOW COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS
FROM THE APPROACHING UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH AFTN W-SW SFC BREEZES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
IS SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM FOR LATE FALL. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER CAUSING THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND RESULT
IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPS
WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW NORM /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ TO START OFF THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID. CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SW AS AN UA PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PROGGED PWATS
NEARING 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH IT NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. SOME FINE DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED
OUT...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IMPLYING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN THE INSERTION OF
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  66  34  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         29  64  34  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  64  34  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     31  65  35  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  65  35  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  64  36  73  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  65  35  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     31  64  37  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  65  37  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  65  40  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 261736
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING THROUGH
ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA LEADING TO LIGHT SURFACE WIND
COMPONENTS AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY INITIALLY BRING SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. THIS EVENING MAY WELL BE FANTASTIC
FLYING WEATHER FOR GA PILOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AN EMBEDDED RIPPLE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A BIT OF A TROUGH
FORMS FROM EL PASO TOWARD HERMOSILLO.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  AT
2AM...THIS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
BY MID MORNING.  BRIEFLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP JUST A
TAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING TODAY...CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS.  STORMY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA...THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UP ACROSS IOWA INTO NRN MN/WI...AND LIGHT RAIN
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TRAVEL SAFELY!

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING THUS PROMOTING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILST UA TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE MID-WEST
AND ERN CONUS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO /60S/...AS THE ONCE NRLY SFC WINDS PROVIDED
BY TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER TO A SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY
FLOW COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS
FROM THE APPROACHING UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH AFTN W-SW SFC BREEZES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
IS SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM FOR LATE FALL. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER CAUSING THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND RESULT
IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPS
WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW NORM /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ TO START OFF THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID. CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SW AS AN UA PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PROGGED PWATS
NEARING 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH IT NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. SOME FINE DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED
OUT...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IMPLYING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN THE INSERTION OF
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  66  34  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         29  64  34  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  64  34  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     31  65  35  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       31  65  35  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  64  36  73  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  65  35  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     31  64  37  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  65  37  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  65  40  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 261130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
530 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY INITIALLY BRING SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. THIS EVENING MAY WELL BE FANTASTIC
FLYING WEATHER FOR GA PILOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AN EMBEDDED RIPPLE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A BIT OF A TROUGH
FORMS FROM EL PASO TOWARD HERMOSILLO.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  AT
2AM...THIS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
BY MID MORNING.  BRIEFLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP JUST A
TAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING TODAY...CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS.  STORMY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA...THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UP ACROSS IOWA INTO NRN MN/WI...AND LIGHT RAIN
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TRAVEL SAFELY!

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING THUS PROMOTING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILST UA TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE MID-WEST
AND ERN CONUS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO /60S/...AS THE ONCE NRLY SFC WINDS PROVIDED
BY TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER TO A SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY
FLOW COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS
FROM THE APPROACHING UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH AFTN W-SW SFC BREEZES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
IS SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM FOR LATE FALL. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER CAUSING THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND RESULT
IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPS
WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW NORM /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ TO START OFF THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID. CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SW AS AN UA PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PROGGED PWATS
NEARING 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH IT NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. SOME FINE DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED
OUT...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IMPLYING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN THE INSERTION OF
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  29  66  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         55  29  64  34  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  29  64  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  31  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  31  65  35  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  64  36  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  32  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  31  64  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  32  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  32  65  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 261130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
530 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING MAY INITIALLY BRING SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS. THIS EVENING MAY WELL BE FANTASTIC
FLYING WEATHER FOR GA PILOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AN EMBEDDED RIPPLE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A BIT OF A TROUGH
FORMS FROM EL PASO TOWARD HERMOSILLO.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  AT
2AM...THIS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
BY MID MORNING.  BRIEFLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARM-UP JUST A
TAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING TODAY...CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS.  STORMY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA...THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UP ACROSS IOWA INTO NRN MN/WI...AND LIGHT RAIN
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TRAVEL SAFELY!

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING THUS PROMOTING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILST UA TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE MID-WEST
AND ERN CONUS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO /60S/...AS THE ONCE NRLY SFC WINDS PROVIDED
BY TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER TO A SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY
FLOW COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS
FROM THE APPROACHING UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH AFTN W-SW SFC BREEZES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
IS SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM FOR LATE FALL. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER CAUSING THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND RESULT
IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPS
WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW NORM /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ TO START OFF THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID. CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SW AS AN UA PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PROGGED PWATS
NEARING 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH IT NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. SOME FINE DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED
OUT...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IMPLYING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN THE INSERTION OF
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  29  66  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         55  29  64  34  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  29  64  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  31  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  31  65  35  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  64  36  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  32  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  31  64  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  32  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  32  65  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 260908
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
308 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AN EMBEDDED RIPPLE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE A BIT OF A TROUGH
FORMS FROM EL PASO TOWARD HERMOSILLO.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  AT
2AM...THIS COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
SHOULD CROSS OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES BY 12Z THEN CLEAR
BY MID MORNING.  BRIEFLY BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP ALONG
THE TX/NM STATE LINE.  THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMUP JUST A
TAD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

IF TRAVELING TODAY...CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE SRN
CONUS.  STORMY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND WITH LESS INTENSE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MONTANA...THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO UP ACROSS IOWA INTO NRN MN/WI...AND LIGHT RAIN
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TRAVEL SAFELY!

&&

.LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC IS BEARING DOWN ON THE
WRN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING THUS PROMOTING DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILST UA TROUGHINESS DOMINATES THE MID-WEST
AND ERN CONUS. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO /60S/...AS THE ONCE NRLY SFC WINDS PROVIDED
BY TODAY/S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL VEER TO A SLIGHTLY BREEZY SRLY
FLOW COURTESY OF SFC LEE TROUGHING. INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS
FROM THE APPROACHING UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH AFTN W-SW SFC BREEZES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 70S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
IS SOME 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORM FOR LATE FALL. BY SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BACK TO NEAR ZONAL THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. TIER CAUSING THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN EWRD PROPAGATING UA
TROUGH ACROSS CANADA THAT WILL SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS
HINT AT THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...THOUGH
THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND RESULT
IN A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NONETHELESS...TEMPS
WILL STILL DROP TO BELOW NORM /MAINLY IN THE 50S/ TO START OFF THE
FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
AS SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SRLY FLOW AND THE NEARBY SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY APPEARS VALID. CONCURRENTLY...FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMMENCE TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SW AS AN UA PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING
GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH PROGGED PWATS
NEARING 1.00 INCH ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SAID
DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
EARLY IN THE WEEK TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID TO LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN PRECIP CHANCES. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH IT NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY LATE WEEK...THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP. SOME FINE DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED
OUT...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS IMPLYING THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL INCREASE BY MID-WEEK...WILL RESULT IN THE INSERTION OF
20-30 PERCENT POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        56  29  66  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         55  29  64  34  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     55  29  64  34  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  31  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  31  65  35  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  30  64  36  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  32  65  35  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     59  31  64  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          58  32  65  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     58  32  65  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 252332 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SWING WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH IN THE MORNING BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM...WILL
DIVE FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FACILITATE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
PULLING EAST INTO ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPE
DOMINATING PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THOUGH WONT ACCOUNT FOR DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. A MATURE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
RELEASE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PULLING THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DETRACT FROM A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO FOLLOW. WIND SPEEDS
ALSO NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODEST NORTHERLY
BREEZES FOR THE MOST PART...TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NOVEMBER AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE WEST TEXAS MID-WEEK GRADUALLY BACKS TO NEAR
ZONAL BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
WESTERN STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE TO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS OF
ANY PRECIPITATION /SHOULD IT DEVELOP/ WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN BEHIND TOMORROW/S COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
RIDGING. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF BREEZY AND MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM LATE
WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 70S A GOOD BET FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. THE WARMTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER AS A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OPENS
THE DOOR FOR A CHUNK OF COLD AIR WITH ORIGINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THE THRUST OF THIS COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE
DIRECTED TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A
GLANCING BLOW LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE STRONGER/COLDER ECMWF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. THE
COOL-DOWN SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ENVELOPS WEST TEXAS. A
RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EVEN BRING THE RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY...THOUGH AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE PROSPECTS
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  55  25  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         26  54  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  55  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  58  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  58  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  60  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  59  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  59  33  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  59  31  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  61  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLUB 252332 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL SWING WIND AROUND TO THE NORTH IN THE MORNING BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM...WILL
DIVE FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FACILITATE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
PULLING EAST INTO ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPE
DOMINATING PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THOUGH WONT ACCOUNT FOR DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. A MATURE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
RELEASE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PULLING THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DETRACT FROM A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO FOLLOW. WIND SPEEDS
ALSO NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODEST NORTHERLY
BREEZES FOR THE MOST PART...TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NOVEMBER AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE WEST TEXAS MID-WEEK GRADUALLY BACKS TO NEAR
ZONAL BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
WESTERN STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE TO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS OF
ANY PRECIPITATION /SHOULD IT DEVELOP/ WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN BEHIND TOMORROW/S COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
RIDGING. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF BREEZY AND MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM LATE
WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 70S A GOOD BET FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. THE WARMTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER AS A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OPENS
THE DOOR FOR A CHUNK OF COLD AIR WITH ORIGINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THE THRUST OF THIS COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE
DIRECTED TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A
GLANCING BLOW LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE STRONGER/COLDER ECMWF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. THE
COOL-DOWN SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ENVELOPS WEST TEXAS. A
RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EVEN BRING THE RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY...THOUGH AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE PROSPECTS
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  55  25  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         26  54  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  55  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  58  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  58  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  60  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  59  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  59  33  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  59  31  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  61  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLUB 252034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
234 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM...WILL
DIVE FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FACILITATE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
PULLING EAST INTO ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPE
DOMINATING PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THOUGH WONT ACCOUNT FOR DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. A MATURE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
RELEASE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PULLING THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DETRACT FROM A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO FOLLOW. WIND SPEEDS
ALSO NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODEST NORTHERLY
BREEZES FOR THE MOST PART...TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NOVEMBER AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE WEST TEXAS MID-WEEK GRADUALLY BACKS TO NEAR
ZONAL BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
WESTERN STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE TO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS OF
ANY PRECIPITATION /SHOULD IT DEVELOP/ WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN BEHIND TOMORROW/S COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
RIDGING. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF BREEZY AND MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM LATE
WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 70S A GOOD BET FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. THE WARMTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER AS A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OPENS
THE DOOR FOR A CHUNK OF COLD AIR WITH ORIGINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THE THRUST OF THIS COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE
DIRECTED TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A
GLANCING BLOW LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE STRONGER/COLDER ECMWF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. THE
COOL-DOWN SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ENVELOPS WEST TEXAS. A
RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EVEN BRING THE RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY...THOUGH AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE PROSPECTS
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  55  25  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         26  54  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  55  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  58  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  58  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  60  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  59  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  59  33  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  59  31  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  61  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 252034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
234 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM...WILL
DIVE FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE TODAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FACILITATE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
PULLING EAST INTO ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPE
DOMINATING PRIOR TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD MID
TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THOUGH WONT ACCOUNT FOR DRAMATICALLY
DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY. A MATURE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
RELEASE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PULLING THINNING HIGH CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT
SHOULD NOT DETRACT FROM A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO FOLLOW. WIND SPEEDS
ALSO NOT LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY MODEST NORTHERLY
BREEZES FOR THE MOST PART...TAPERING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TREND TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
FLATTER FLOW ALOFT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR LATE NOVEMBER AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE WEST TEXAS MID-WEEK GRADUALLY BACKS TO NEAR
ZONAL BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A
WESTERN STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
MOISTURE TO MOST OF CALIFORNIA. CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM
BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS OF
ANY PRECIPITATION /SHOULD IT DEVELOP/ WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY HOLD UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...JUST
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN BEHIND TOMORROW/S COLD FRONT AND SURFACE
RIDGING. A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
THEN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF BREEZY AND MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM LATE
WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 70S A GOOD BET FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO ELEVATE THE
FIRE DANGER SOMEWHAT. THE WARMTH SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
JUST IN TIME FOR DECEMBER AS A PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OPENS
THE DOOR FOR A CHUNK OF COLD AIR WITH ORIGINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN
AND NORTHWEST CANADA. THE THRUST OF THIS COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE
DIRECTED TO OUR NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY STILL SEE A
GLANCING BLOW LATE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BACKDOORS THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS. WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE STRONGER/COLDER ECMWF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY. THE
COOL-DOWN SHOULD NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY
TRANSLATES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ENVELOPS WEST TEXAS. A
RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD EVEN BRING THE RISK OF
LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY...THOUGH AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE PROSPECTS
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  55  25  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         26  54  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  55  27  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  58  28  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  58  30  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   26  60  30  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    27  59  30  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  59  33  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          30  59  31  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  61  33  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 251741
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIPPING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND WITH AN INCREASE LIKELY INTO THE MID
TEEN KNOT RANGE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAILING LOWER THIS
EVENING. MOST SOLUTIONS NOW DELAY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL NEAR OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY SO WE HAVE DELAYED THE
PREVIOUS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BOTH FOR KPVW AND KCDS. NO OTHER
APPARENT CONCERNS WITH DRY VFR REMAINING DOMINANT IN SLOWLY
DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MINOR HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS PANHANDLE WITH A DETACHING AND WEAKENING MOUNTAIN WAVE LEE
OF CENTRAL ROCKIES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
TODAY WE WELCOME THE NEWEST TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST SITE IN
THE USA -- PLAINVIEW/HALE COUNTY AIRPORT-KPVW. WEATHER INFORMATION
IS PROVIDED VIA A NON-FEDERAL AWOS-3 OBSERVATION PLATFORM AND
AVAILABLE ON 119.675 MHZ. THIS NEW TAF WILL BE ISSUED A MINIMUM OF
4 TIMES PER DAY /00Z...06Z...12Z...18Z/ WITH CONTINUOUS AMENDMENT
MONITORING.

ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS FIRST TAF HAS BEEN TRANSMITTED
SUCCESSFULLY VIA THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS UNDER WMO HEADER
FTUS44 KLUB. IF ANY ISSUES WITH RECEIVING THIS TAF ARISE...PLEASE
CONTACT THE NWS OFFICE IN LUBBOCK AT +1-806-745-4260.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  22  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  27  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  29  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  27  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  26  62  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  27  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  35  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  31  61  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  33  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05






000
FXUS64 KLUB 251741
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIPPING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR
SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND WITH AN INCREASE LIKELY INTO THE MID
TEEN KNOT RANGE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAILING LOWER THIS
EVENING. MOST SOLUTIONS NOW DELAY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL NEAR OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY SO WE HAVE DELAYED THE
PREVIOUS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BOTH FOR KPVW AND KCDS. NO OTHER
APPARENT CONCERNS WITH DRY VFR REMAINING DOMINANT IN SLOWLY
DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MINOR HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS PANHANDLE WITH A DETACHING AND WEAKENING MOUNTAIN WAVE LEE
OF CENTRAL ROCKIES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...
TODAY WE WELCOME THE NEWEST TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST SITE IN
THE USA -- PLAINVIEW/HALE COUNTY AIRPORT-KPVW. WEATHER INFORMATION
IS PROVIDED VIA A NON-FEDERAL AWOS-3 OBSERVATION PLATFORM AND
AVAILABLE ON 119.675 MHZ. THIS NEW TAF WILL BE ISSUED A MINIMUM OF
4 TIMES PER DAY /00Z...06Z...12Z...18Z/ WITH CONTINUOUS AMENDMENT
MONITORING.

ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS FIRST TAF HAS BEEN TRANSMITTED
SUCCESSFULLY VIA THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS UNDER WMO HEADER
FTUS44 KLUB. IF ANY ISSUES WITH RECEIVING THIS TAF ARISE...PLEASE
CONTACT THE NWS OFFICE IN LUBBOCK AT +1-806-745-4260.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  22  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  27  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  29  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  27  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  26  62  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  27  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  35  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  31  61  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  33  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05







000
FXUS64 KLUB 251148
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
TODAY WE WELCOME THE NEWEST TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST SITE IN
THE USA -- PLAINVIEW/HALE COUNTY AIRPORT-KPVW. WEATHER INFORMATION
IS PROVIDED VIA A NON-FEDERAL AWOS-3 OBSERVATION PLATFORM AND
AVAILABLE ON 119.675 MHZ. THIS NEW TAF WILL BE ISSUED A MINIMUM OF
4 TIMES PER DAY /00Z...06Z...12Z...18Z/ WITH CONTINUOUS AMENDMENT
MONITORING.

ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS FIRST TAF HAS BEEN TRANSMITTED
SUCCESSFULLY VIA THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS UNDER WMO HEADER
FTUS44 KLUB. IF ANY ISSUES WITH RECEIVING THIS TAF ARISE...PLEASE
CONTACT THE NWS OFFICE IN LUBBOCK AT +1-806-745-4260.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  28  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  30  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  31  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  32  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  32  62  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  31  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  35  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  35  61  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  36  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26








000
FXUS64 KLUB 251148
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
TODAY WE WELCOME THE NEWEST TERMINAL AERODROME FORECAST SITE IN
THE USA -- PLAINVIEW/HALE COUNTY AIRPORT-KPVW. WEATHER INFORMATION
IS PROVIDED VIA A NON-FEDERAL AWOS-3 OBSERVATION PLATFORM AND
AVAILABLE ON 119.675 MHZ. THIS NEW TAF WILL BE ISSUED A MINIMUM OF
4 TIMES PER DAY /00Z...06Z...12Z...18Z/ WITH CONTINUOUS AMENDMENT
MONITORING.

ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS FIRST TAF HAS BEEN TRANSMITTED
SUCCESSFULLY VIA THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS UNDER WMO HEADER
FTUS44 KLUB. IF ANY ISSUES WITH RECEIVING THIS TAF ARISE...PLEASE
CONTACT THE NWS OFFICE IN LUBBOCK AT +1-806-745-4260.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  28  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  30  57  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  31  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  32  59  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  32  62  34  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  31  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  35  60  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  35  61  35  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  36  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 250802
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  28  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  29  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  30  62  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  31  63  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  31  63  34  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  32  65  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  32  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  33  63  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  33  64  35  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  34  65  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29






000
FXUS64 KLUB 250802
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
202 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY AS A
FAST-MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM ALBERTA TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY ESTABLISH A SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THOSE
DEEPENING PRESSURES WILL THEN HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
15-30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SWRN PANHANDLE AND NWRN SOUTH PLAINS.
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT BE TOO DISSIMILAR
FROM YESTERDAY. THICKNESSES INCREASE SOME TODAY...BUT MODEST COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PLAY A ROLE. ALSO MUST NOTE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT FROM THE WINDS...PARTICULARLY WESTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA. THUS SHOULD SEE A WARM UP FROM YESTERDAY NORTHWEST
WITH POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. PREVIOUS FCST AND MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GREAT WITH ONLY VERY
SLIGHT MODIFICATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TRICKIER WITH POTENTIAL FOR WEST
WINDS TO STAY ELEVATED SOME OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM
DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE NW LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL TEND TO
FAVOR WARMER GFS-BASED MOS NUMBERS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RELATIVELY QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
CONSIST OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING ACROSS ERN PACIFIC...UA
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS AND THUS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...OUR AIRMASS WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE PACIFIC VERSUS ARCTIC ORIGINS ACROSS THE MID-WEST.
LOOKING AT THE SFC...AN UA DISTURBANCE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEND DOWN A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THUS BRIEFLY VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL NOT
DAMPEN TEMPS MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S STILL ANTICIPATED. TEMPS
WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE BY THANKSGIVING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
COURTESY OF RISING HEIGHT FIELDS AND SFC LEE TROUGHING. WILL
THEREFORE SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS DURING THE AFTN AND
AS A RESULT...HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND IN THE 60S
AND 70S BY THE WEEKEND /MOS GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A BIT
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND/. CONCURRENTLY...WITH UA DISTURBANCES
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. TIER...FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEREBY BACK TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FLOW ALOFT BACKING FURTHER TO THE SW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS
TO A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE NEARING THE CALI SHORE. S-SE SFC WINDS
WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE TO ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COULD PROMOTE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HENCE COOLER TEMPS /50S AND 60S/. BEING THIS IS
DAY 7 AND BEYOND WE ARE REFERRING TO...THINGS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE
BY THEN. HOWEVER...10-12 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
/WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES/ ON TUESDAY APPEARS APPROPRIATE
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  28  62  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  29  61  31  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  30  62  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     54  31  63  33  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  31  63  34  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  32  65  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  32  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  33  63  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  33  64  35  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  34  65  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 250533
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES AFTN AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24








000
FXUS64 KLUB 250533
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES AFTN AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24







000
FXUS64 KLUB 242325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ASSCD WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. NRLY WINDS
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL TURN SW IN THE AFTN TUE AND INCREASE AS SFC
TROUGH DEVELOPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/51/24






000
FXUS64 KLUB 242325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT ASSCD WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. NRLY WINDS
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL TURN SW IN THE AFTN TUE AND INCREASE AS SFC
TROUGH DEVELOPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/51/24







000
FXUS64 KLUB 242052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/51







000
FXUS64 KLUB 242052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
252 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
QUIET WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT
30-40 MPH LOWER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  VERY DRY AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR ZERO RESULTING IN
RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT.  TEMPERATURES WERE STARTING TO CLIMB
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THANKS TO A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT BUT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WERE HOLDING TEMPS IN CHECK BY LIMITING
INSOLATION.  THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WAS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH WAS DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
ROCKIES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.   HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE CAPROCK WITH LOW/MID 20S REPORTED.  ENOUGH MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A CU FIELD ON TOP OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  UNFORTUNATELY THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ANY PRECIPITATION SO DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.

SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  MORNING LOWS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND EARLY IN THE DAY.  WIND WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE
TROF ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE 15 TO 25
MPH WIND SPEEDS COULD DEVELOP.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY TURNING ZONAL. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE SOME
WHAT SPLIT AS THE AIRMASS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER WILL ORIGINATE
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC VERSUS THE MID WEST WHOSE AIR MASS
ORIGINATES FROM THE ARCTIC. A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WILL STAY PUT INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY SUPPLYING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. BIGGER
WEATHER CHANGES MAY COME EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WHICH
COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS BACK TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS WITH PROGRESSION OF THE TROF IS ALSO TAPS IN TO SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN THEY ARE AT THE
PRESENT TIME THEY SHOULD NOT PLUMMET AS THEY DID JUST OVER A WEEK
AGO AS THIS TROF DOES NOT APPEAR TO TAP IN TO COLD ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  52  28  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         23  53  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     24  53  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     25  54  31  63  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       25  54  31  63  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   25  54  32  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    26  55  32  64  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     32  57  33  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          32  57  33  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     33  57  34  65  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/51








000
FXUS64 KLUB 241728 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT. 34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO LIGHT NLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99










000
FXUS64 KLUB 241728 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO TWEAK SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT. 34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO LIGHT NLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99









000
FXUS64 KLUB 241721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1121 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO LIGHT NLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99











000
FXUS64 KLUB 241721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1121 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO LIGHT NLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99










000
FXUS64 KLUB 241122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
522 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY BREEZY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  21  52  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  25  54  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  26  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  27  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  27  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  27  54  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  31  58  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29







000
FXUS64 KLUB 240819
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  21  52  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  25  54  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  26  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  27  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  27  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  27  54  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  31  58  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 240819
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
219 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRY NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UA DISTURBANCE THAT PROMOTED
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS WAS SHIFTING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. LEFT IN ITS WAKE WERE RATHER LIGHT ECHO RETURNS ACROSS
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS AND ERN NM...WHICH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. GIVEN CONDITIONS
AT THE SFC ARE RATHER DRY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S/ IT IS
HARD TO SAY WHETHER ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH A
FEW FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LIGHT W-NW SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM
YESTERDAY/S WIND SPEEDS...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILST BACKING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. DESPITE
THE DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...TEMPS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S
AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISLODGE THE CAA BROUGHT IN BY
YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND DRAG IN ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FAR NW SOUTH PLAINS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND CLEARING
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS
ARE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COOL SIDE...THUS
LEADING TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NICE WEEK AHEAD AS DRY NWLY FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK.
WHEN COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS EVERYTHING POINTS TO GRADUAL
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NOT EVEN A DECENT COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEAKER ONE WEDNESDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. MOS GUIDANCE IN THE BALL PARK WITH FEW
DEVIATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  21  52  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  25  54  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     53  26  54  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  27  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       54  28  54  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  27  54  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    53  27  54  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     58  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          57  30  57  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  31  58  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 240523
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE PERHAPS A 5 PCT RISK OF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AT KLBB. OTHERWISE
TRANQUIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS
BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TO OUR NORTH. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 240523
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE PERHAPS A 5 PCT RISK OF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AT KLBB. OTHERWISE
TRANQUIL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS
BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TO OUR NORTH. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 232339
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
539 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS
BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TO OUR NORTH. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT ICING AND DOWNBURST
ACTIVITY ALOFT INVOF VIRGA SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26







000
FXUS64 KLUB 232339
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
539 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS
BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TO OUR NORTH. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LIGHT ICING AND DOWNBURST
ACTIVITY ALOFT INVOF VIRGA SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26






000
FXUS64 KLUB 232105
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 232105
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING WINDS
TO THE NORTH BUT NOT LETTING UP ON SPEEDS. STRONG WARMING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY.
MID LEVEL RADAR RETURNS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE ON HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE BUT WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN LIQUID. THE LIFT WILL LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE AIR
MASS BECOMES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. A QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MEAN NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUICK RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 60S
WITH A WEAK FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
IN THE DAY. THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER NICE WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A BIT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. END OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE GFS
CONTINUES TO TRY TO BRING A FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  50  22  50  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  53  24  51  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     29  53  25  51  29 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  53  26  50  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       30  54  26  51  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  53  26  51  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  53  27  51  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     34  58  30  53  31 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          34  56  31  54  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     35  57  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

01/14







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