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000
FXUS64 KLUB 042315
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL STRENGTHENS
OVER WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE EXCITEMENT OF THE PAST WEEK SEEMS TO HAVE COME TO AN END. AS
EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD FIELD THAT COVERED THE
ROLLING PLAINS MOST OF THE MORNING IS MAKING ITS EXIT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR REBOUND. A FEW MODELS WANT
TO PUSH LUBBOCK...PLAINVIEW...AND AREAS EAST TO THE CENTURY MARK AND
WELL ABOVE FOR TOMORROW...BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BUILD QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT YET. IF YOU WERE LOOKING
FORWARD TO HITTING THE FIRST 100 IN LBB...YOU WILL HAVE TO WAIT A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED INVOLVES HOW HOT
MAX TEMPS WILL SHAKE OUT EACH DAY UNDER A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS HIGH IS NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 5950 METERS EACH DAY...THOUGH 850-700
MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED MAX TEMPS LARGELY IN CHECK WITH NO CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE. ONLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES BUT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING SELY WINDS ALOFT COMPLETE WITH LOWER THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  96  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  97  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  97  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  99  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 102  75 104 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          70 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 103  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 042315
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL STRENGTHENS
OVER WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE EXCITEMENT OF THE PAST WEEK SEEMS TO HAVE COME TO AN END. AS
EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD FIELD THAT COVERED THE
ROLLING PLAINS MOST OF THE MORNING IS MAKING ITS EXIT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR REBOUND. A FEW MODELS WANT
TO PUSH LUBBOCK...PLAINVIEW...AND AREAS EAST TO THE CENTURY MARK AND
WELL ABOVE FOR TOMORROW...BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BUILD QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT YET. IF YOU WERE LOOKING
FORWARD TO HITTING THE FIRST 100 IN LBB...YOU WILL HAVE TO WAIT A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED INVOLVES HOW HOT
MAX TEMPS WILL SHAKE OUT EACH DAY UNDER A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS HIGH IS NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 5950 METERS EACH DAY...THOUGH 850-700
MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED MAX TEMPS LARGELY IN CHECK WITH NO CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE. ONLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES BUT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING SELY WINDS ALOFT COMPLETE WITH LOWER THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  96  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  97  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  97  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  99  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 102  75 104 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          70 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 103  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 042315
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL STRENGTHENS
OVER WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE EXCITEMENT OF THE PAST WEEK SEEMS TO HAVE COME TO AN END. AS
EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD FIELD THAT COVERED THE
ROLLING PLAINS MOST OF THE MORNING IS MAKING ITS EXIT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR REBOUND. A FEW MODELS WANT
TO PUSH LUBBOCK...PLAINVIEW...AND AREAS EAST TO THE CENTURY MARK AND
WELL ABOVE FOR TOMORROW...BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BUILD QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT YET. IF YOU WERE LOOKING
FORWARD TO HITTING THE FIRST 100 IN LBB...YOU WILL HAVE TO WAIT A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED INVOLVES HOW HOT
MAX TEMPS WILL SHAKE OUT EACH DAY UNDER A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS HIGH IS NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 5950 METERS EACH DAY...THOUGH 850-700
MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED MAX TEMPS LARGELY IN CHECK WITH NO CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE. ONLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES BUT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING SELY WINDS ALOFT COMPLETE WITH LOWER THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  96  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  97  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  97  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  99  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 102  75 104 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          70 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 103  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 042315
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL STRENGTHENS
OVER WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE EXCITEMENT OF THE PAST WEEK SEEMS TO HAVE COME TO AN END. AS
EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD FIELD THAT COVERED THE
ROLLING PLAINS MOST OF THE MORNING IS MAKING ITS EXIT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR REBOUND. A FEW MODELS WANT
TO PUSH LUBBOCK...PLAINVIEW...AND AREAS EAST TO THE CENTURY MARK AND
WELL ABOVE FOR TOMORROW...BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BUILD QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT YET. IF YOU WERE LOOKING
FORWARD TO HITTING THE FIRST 100 IN LBB...YOU WILL HAVE TO WAIT A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

LONG TERM...
THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED INVOLVES HOW HOT
MAX TEMPS WILL SHAKE OUT EACH DAY UNDER A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS HIGH IS NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 5950 METERS EACH DAY...THOUGH 850-700
MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED MAX TEMPS LARGELY IN CHECK WITH NO CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE. ONLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES BUT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING SELY WINDS ALOFT COMPLETE WITH LOWER THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  96  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  97  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  97  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     68  98  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  99  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  99  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  99  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 102  75 104 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          70 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 103  76 104 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 042001
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE EXCITEMENT OF THE PAST WEEK SEEMS TO HAVE COME TO AN END. AS
EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD FIELD THAT COVERED THE
ROLLING PLAINS MOST OF THE MORNING IS MAKING ITS EXIT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR REBOUND. A FEW MODELS WANT
TO PUSH LUBBOCK...PLAINVIEW...AND AREAS EAST TO THE CENTURY MARK AND
WELL ABOVE FOR TOMORROW...BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BUILD QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT YET. IF YOU WERE LOOKING
FORWARD TO HITTING THE FIRST 100 IN LBB...YOU WILL HAVE TO WAIT A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...
THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED INVOLVES HOW HOT
MAX TEMPS WILL SHAKE OUT EACH DAY UNDER A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS HIGH IS NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 5950 METERS EACH DAY...THOUGH 850-700
MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED MAX TEMPS LARGELY IN CHECK WITH NO CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE. ONLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES BUT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING SELY WINDS ALOFT COMPLETE WITH LOWER THICKNESSES.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 042001
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE EXCITEMENT OF THE PAST WEEK SEEMS TO HAVE COME TO AN END. AS
EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE
SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD FIELD THAT COVERED THE
ROLLING PLAINS MOST OF THE MORNING IS MAKING ITS EXIT...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO MAKE THEIR REBOUND. A FEW MODELS WANT
TO PUSH LUBBOCK...PLAINVIEW...AND AREAS EAST TO THE CENTURY MARK AND
WELL ABOVE FOR TOMORROW...BUT THE RIDGE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BUILD QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THAT YET. IF YOU WERE LOOKING
FORWARD TO HITTING THE FIRST 100 IN LBB...YOU WILL HAVE TO WAIT A
COUPLE MORE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...
THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED INVOLVES HOW HOT
MAX TEMPS WILL SHAKE OUT EACH DAY UNDER A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL
HIGH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS HIGH IS NOT ANYTHING UNUSUAL WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS HOLDING AROUND 5950 METERS EACH DAY...THOUGH 850-700
MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED MAX TEMPS LARGELY IN CHECK WITH NO CHANGES OF
SIGNIFICANCE. ONLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES BUT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
ALLOWING SELY WINDS ALOFT COMPLETE WITH LOWER THICKNESSES.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 041702
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP A BIT AT KLBB
AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE PUT GUSTS INTO
THE TAFS AS PVW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO REPORT SEEING SOME TO 16
KT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER STILL HANGING OVER CDS...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER...SO GUSTS HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT ATTM.
OTHERWISE...ALL RAIN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO DIMINISH WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES ALONG A
REMNANT GUST FRONT. LAST EVENINGS RAINS HAVE HELPED TO COOL TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK. AT 230AM TEMPS RANGED FROM 66 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TO 84 DEGREES AT ASPERMONT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT TAMED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING
MECHANISMS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM SHOWS NO NOTICEABLE FEATURES
AS WELL. THE ONE AREA OF NOTE THAT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAPPENED
TO APPEAR WOULD BE A WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT BELOW MENTION. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION
EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT
WILL BE ON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS POINT AS THICKNESSES
PEAK WITH A 594 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 100S SOUTHEAST. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NEGATE ANY INFLUENCE FROM AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO NO THOUGHT OF INCLUDING ANYTHING NEAR MENTIONABLE
POPS AS DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE. BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS THE
RESULT OF EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME WELCOME CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER
THE REGION. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...AT LEAST LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  96  68  99 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         68  97  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  98  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     69  98  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  99  74 101 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  99  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  99  72 101 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 102  75 106 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          72 101  74 103 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 103  76 106 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041702
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP A BIT AT KLBB
AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE PUT GUSTS INTO
THE TAFS AS PVW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO REPORT SEEING SOME TO 16
KT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER STILL HANGING OVER CDS...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER...SO GUSTS HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT ATTM.
OTHERWISE...ALL RAIN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO DIMINISH WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES ALONG A
REMNANT GUST FRONT. LAST EVENINGS RAINS HAVE HELPED TO COOL TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK. AT 230AM TEMPS RANGED FROM 66 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TO 84 DEGREES AT ASPERMONT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT TAMED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING
MECHANISMS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM SHOWS NO NOTICEABLE FEATURES
AS WELL. THE ONE AREA OF NOTE THAT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAPPENED
TO APPEAR WOULD BE A WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT BELOW MENTION. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION
EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT
WILL BE ON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS POINT AS THICKNESSES
PEAK WITH A 594 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 100S SOUTHEAST. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NEGATE ANY INFLUENCE FROM AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO NO THOUGHT OF INCLUDING ANYTHING NEAR MENTIONABLE
POPS AS DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE. BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS THE
RESULT OF EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME WELCOME CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER
THE REGION. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...AT LEAST LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  96  68  99 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         68  97  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  98  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     69  98  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  99  74 101 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  99  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  99  72 101 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 102  75 106 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          72 101  74 103 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 103  76 106 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74





000
FXUS64 KLUB 041702
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP A BIT AT KLBB
AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE PUT GUSTS INTO
THE TAFS AS PVW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO REPORT SEEING SOME TO 16
KT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER STILL HANGING OVER CDS...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER...SO GUSTS HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT ATTM.
OTHERWISE...ALL RAIN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO DIMINISH WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES ALONG A
REMNANT GUST FRONT. LAST EVENINGS RAINS HAVE HELPED TO COOL TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK. AT 230AM TEMPS RANGED FROM 66 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TO 84 DEGREES AT ASPERMONT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT TAMED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING
MECHANISMS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM SHOWS NO NOTICEABLE FEATURES
AS WELL. THE ONE AREA OF NOTE THAT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAPPENED
TO APPEAR WOULD BE A WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT BELOW MENTION. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION
EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT
WILL BE ON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS POINT AS THICKNESSES
PEAK WITH A 594 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 100S SOUTHEAST. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NEGATE ANY INFLUENCE FROM AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO NO THOUGHT OF INCLUDING ANYTHING NEAR MENTIONABLE
POPS AS DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE. BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS THE
RESULT OF EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME WELCOME CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER
THE REGION. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...AT LEAST LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  96  68  99 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         68  97  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  98  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     69  98  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  99  74 101 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  99  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  99  72 101 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 102  75 106 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          72 101  74 103 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 103  76 106 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74





000
FXUS64 KLUB 041702
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WITH DRIER AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP A BIT AT KLBB
AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE PUT GUSTS INTO
THE TAFS AS PVW HAS ALREADY STARTED TO REPORT SEEING SOME TO 16
KT. WITH SOME CLOUD COVER STILL HANGING OVER CDS...DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER...SO GUSTS HAVE BEEN KEPT OUT ATTM.
OTHERWISE...ALL RAIN ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HAVE EXITED THE AREA FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO DIMINISH WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES ALONG A
REMNANT GUST FRONT. LAST EVENINGS RAINS HAVE HELPED TO COOL TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK. AT 230AM TEMPS RANGED FROM 66 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TO 84 DEGREES AT ASPERMONT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT TAMED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING
MECHANISMS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM SHOWS NO NOTICEABLE FEATURES
AS WELL. THE ONE AREA OF NOTE THAT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAPPENED
TO APPEAR WOULD BE A WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT BELOW MENTION. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION
EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT
WILL BE ON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS POINT AS THICKNESSES
PEAK WITH A 594 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 100S SOUTHEAST. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NEGATE ANY INFLUENCE FROM AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO NO THOUGHT OF INCLUDING ANYTHING NEAR MENTIONABLE
POPS AS DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE. BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS THE
RESULT OF EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME WELCOME CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER
THE REGION. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...AT LEAST LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  96  68  99 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         68  97  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     68  98  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     69  98  71 100 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  99  74 101 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  99  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  99  72 101 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73 102  75 106 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          72 101  74 103 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75 103  76 106 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST OF LBB AND PVW AND IS JUST OF CDS.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO DIMINISH WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES ALONG A
REMNANT GUST FRONT. LAST EVENINGS RAINS HAVE HELPED TO COOL TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK. AT 230AM TEMPS RANGED FROM 66 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TO 84 DEGREES AT ASPERMONT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT TAMED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING
MECHANISMS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM SHOWS NO NOTICEABLE FEATURES
AS WELL. THE ONE AREA OF NOTE THAT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAPPENED
TO APPEAR WOULD BE A WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT BELOW MENTION. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION
EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT
WILL BE ON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS POINT AS THICKNESSES
PEAK WITH A 594 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 100S SOUTHEAST. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NEGATE ANY INFLUENCE FROM AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO NO THOUGHT OF INCLUDING ANYTHING NEAR MENTIONABLE
POPS AS DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE. BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS THE
RESULT OF EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME WELCOME CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER
THE REGION. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...AT LEAST LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         92  68  97  70 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     92  68  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     94  69  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       94  72  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   95  69  99  70 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    94  70  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     96  73 102  75 /  20  10   0   0
SPUR          96  72 101  74 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  75 103  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31/




000
FXUS64 KLUB 041112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST OF LBB AND PVW AND IS JUST OF CDS.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO DIMINISH WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES ALONG A
REMNANT GUST FRONT. LAST EVENINGS RAINS HAVE HELPED TO COOL TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK. AT 230AM TEMPS RANGED FROM 66 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TO 84 DEGREES AT ASPERMONT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT TAMED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING
MECHANISMS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM SHOWS NO NOTICEABLE FEATURES
AS WELL. THE ONE AREA OF NOTE THAT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAPPENED
TO APPEAR WOULD BE A WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT BELOW MENTION. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION
EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT
WILL BE ON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS POINT AS THICKNESSES
PEAK WITH A 594 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 100S SOUTHEAST. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NEGATE ANY INFLUENCE FROM AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO NO THOUGHT OF INCLUDING ANYTHING NEAR MENTIONABLE
POPS AS DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE. BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS THE
RESULT OF EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME WELCOME CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER
THE REGION. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...AT LEAST LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         92  68  97  70 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     92  68  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     94  69  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       94  72  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   95  69  99  70 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    94  70  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     96  73 102  75 /  20  10   0   0
SPUR          96  72 101  74 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  75 103  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31/





000
FXUS64 KLUB 040809
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO DIMINISH WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES ALONG A
REMNANT GUST FRONT. LAST EVENINGS RAINS HAVE HELPED TO COOL TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK. AT 230AM TEMPS RANGED FROM 66 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TO 84 DEGREES AT ASPERMONT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT TAMED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING
MECHANISMS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM SHOWS NO NOTICEABLE FEATURES
AS WELL. THE ONE AREA OF NOTE THAT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAPPENED
TO APPEAR WOULD BE A WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT BELOW MENTION. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION
EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

.LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT
WILL BE ON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS POINT AS THICKNESSES
PEAK WITH A 594 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 100S SOUTHEAST. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NEGATE ANY INFLUENCE FROM AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO NO THOUGHT OF INCLUDING ANYTHING NEAR MENTIONABLE
POPS AS DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE. BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS THE
RESULT OF EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME WELCOME CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER
THE REGION. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...AT LEAST LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         92  68  97  70 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     92  68  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     94  69  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       94  72  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   95  69  99  70 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    94  70  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     96  73 102  75 /  20  10   0   0
SPUR          96  72 101  74 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  75 103  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 040809
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...
STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA IS
SLOWLY STARTING TO DIMINISH WHILE SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CHILDRESS AND NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTIES ALONG A
REMNANT GUST FRONT. LAST EVENINGS RAINS HAVE HELPED TO COOL TEMPS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK. AT 230AM TEMPS RANGED FROM 66 DEGREES ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES TO 84 DEGREES AT ASPERMONT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP HIGHS A BIT TAMED THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE OVERHEAD BUT SHOULD STAY IN
THE LOW 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FOR TOMORROW TO BE DRY WITH NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING
MECHANISMS. WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AM SHOWS NO NOTICEABLE FEATURES
AS WELL. THE ONE AREA OF NOTE THAT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAPPENED
TO APPEAR WOULD BE A WEAK AND STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT BELOW MENTION. THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SLOWLY BEGINS ITS MIGRATION
EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

.LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO MID-LATE WEEK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT
WILL BE ON...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER 100S EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS POINT AS THICKNESSES
PEAK WITH A 594 DAM RIDGE OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LOW COMING ONSHORE
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA MAY BE ABLE TO NUDGE THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE HEAT AS TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 100S SOUTHEAST. A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS IT WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH NORTH TO NEGATE ANY INFLUENCE FROM AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SO NO THOUGHT OF INCLUDING ANYTHING NEAR MENTIONABLE
POPS AS DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WIN OUT AT THE SURFACE. BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL NUDGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS THE
RESULT OF EACH OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO
PRESENT ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME WELCOME CLOUD COVER. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK WEST OVER
THE REGION. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S...AT LEAST LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         92  68  97  70 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     92  68  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     94  69  98  71 /  10  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       94  72  99  74 /  10  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   95  69  99  70 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    94  70  99  72 /  10  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     96  73 102  75 /  20  10   0   0
SPUR          96  72 101  74 /  20  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  75 103  76 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 040603
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THRU 12Z TO REFLECT THE
PROGRESSION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY FROM THE NORTH.

ALDRICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND CHANCES FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS GETTING READY TO CROSS OVER
KLBB AND KPVW WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO THE WEST AND BE PRETTY
GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HELP MORE STORMS DEVELOP. OTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS KCDS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 3 HOURS FOR KLBB AND KPVW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  66  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         94  69  96  69 /  10   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  69  97  70 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       96  73  99  73 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  70  99  70 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  71  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  74 102  75 /  20   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 101  74 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  76 103  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 040603
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THRU 12Z TO REFLECT THE
PROGRESSION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY FROM THE NORTH.

ALDRICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND CHANCES FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS GETTING READY TO CROSS OVER
KLBB AND KPVW WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO THE WEST AND BE PRETTY
GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HELP MORE STORMS DEVELOP. OTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS KCDS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 3 HOURS FOR KLBB AND KPVW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  66  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         94  69  96  69 /  10   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  69  97  70 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       96  73  99  73 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  70  99  70 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  71  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  74 102  75 /  20   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 101  74 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  76 103  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 040603
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THRU 12Z TO REFLECT THE
PROGRESSION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY FROM THE NORTH.

ALDRICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND CHANCES FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS GETTING READY TO CROSS OVER
KLBB AND KPVW WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO THE WEST AND BE PRETTY
GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HELP MORE STORMS DEVELOP. OTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS KCDS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 3 HOURS FOR KLBB AND KPVW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  66  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         94  69  96  69 /  10   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  69  97  70 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       96  73  99  73 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  70  99  70 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  71  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  74 102  75 /  20   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 101  74 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  76 103  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 040603
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THRU 12Z TO REFLECT THE
PROGRESSION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO CHILDRESS COUNTY FROM THE NORTH.

ALDRICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND CHANCES FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS GETTING READY TO CROSS OVER
KLBB AND KPVW WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO THE WEST AND BE PRETTY
GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HELP MORE STORMS DEVELOP. OTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS KCDS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 3 HOURS FOR KLBB AND KPVW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  66  96  67 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         94  69  96  69 /  10   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     94  69  97  70 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       96  73  99  73 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   97  70  99  70 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    96  71  99  72 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     98  74 102  75 /  20   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 101  74 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT    100  76 103  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032336 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND CHANCES FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS GETTING READY TO CROSS OVER
KLBB AND KPVW WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO THE WEST AND BE PRETTY
GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HELP MORE STORMS DEVELOP. OTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS KCDS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 3 HOURS FOR KLBB AND KPVW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  66  96 /  40  10   0   0
TULIA         66  94  69  96 /  50  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  94  69  97 /  50  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  96  70  98 /  40  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  97  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  96  71  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  98  74 102 /  50  20   0   0
SPUR          69  97  73 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  76 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032336 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND CHANCES FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS GETTING READY TO CROSS OVER
KLBB AND KPVW WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO THE WEST AND BE PRETTY
GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HELP MORE STORMS DEVELOP. OTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS KCDS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 3 HOURS FOR KLBB AND KPVW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  66  96 /  40  10   0   0
TULIA         66  94  69  96 /  50  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  94  69  97 /  50  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  96  70  98 /  40  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  97  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  96  71  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  98  74 102 /  50  20   0   0
SPUR          69  97  73 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  76 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 032336 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND CHANCES FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS GETTING READY TO CROSS OVER
KLBB AND KPVW WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO THE WEST AND BE PRETTY
GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HELP MORE STORMS DEVELOP. OTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS KCDS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 3 HOURS FOR KLBB AND KPVW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  66  96 /  40  10   0   0
TULIA         66  94  69  96 /  50  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  94  69  97 /  50  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  96  70  98 /  40  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  97  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  96  71  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  98  74 102 /  50  20   0   0
SPUR          69  97  73 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  76 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 032336 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND CHANCES FOR TSRA AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS IS GETTING READY TO CROSS OVER
KLBB AND KPVW WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO THE WEST AND BE PRETTY
GUSTY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HELP MORE STORMS DEVELOP. OTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS KCDS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUP FOR THE
FIRST 3 HOURS FOR KLBB AND KPVW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH
THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AGAIN THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  66  96 /  40  10   0   0
TULIA         66  94  69  96 /  50  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  94  69  97 /  50  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  96  70  98 /  40  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  97  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  96  71  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  98  74 102 /  50  20   0   0
SPUR          69  97  73 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  76 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 031957
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  66  96 /  40  10   0   0
TULIA         66  94  69  96 /  50  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  94  69  97 /  50  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  96  70  98 /  40  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  97  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  96  71  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  98  74 102 /  50  20   0   0
SPUR          69  97  73 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  76 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 031957
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT HERE THAT COULD CHANGE
OUR PLEASANT AFTERNOON WEATHER INTO SOMETHING MORE EXCITING THIS
EVENING. FIRST...WE HAVE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. SECOND...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO PADUCAH.
THIRD...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING IN FROM NEW MEXICO.
FINALLY...OTHER WEAK HIDDEN BOUNARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN. THESE ARE THE PLAYERS...HOW WILL
THEY MIX?

AS OF 1930Z THE SHORT WAVE IS SHOWING ITS HAND FIRST BY FIRING OFF
STORMS IN BAILEY COUNTY. IT IS EXPECTED THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE MOISTURE RICH AIR AND CREATE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AS THESE STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY...A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THESE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP...CAUSING A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AT TIMES. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...AND WITH INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST RISK
WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO...NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUEANCE OF FLOOD PRODUCTS ATTM.
ANY HIDDEN BOUNDARIES WILL AID IN POP-UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW MORNING STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EASTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
FOLLOWING BEHIND. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING ONCE RAIN CLEARS
AREA AND TEMPS TO RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN
ACTIVE POLAR JET WILL DISTRIBUTE A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ALONG
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BUT HIGH
PRESSURE DOME SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS APPEARS TOO STOUT FOR THAT
ENERGY TO INFLUENCE SENSIBLE WEATHER LOCALLY.

WITH DRIER PATTERN ESTABLISHING ITSELF...BEST TO FOUCUS ON
TEMPERATURES...SPECIFICALLY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
LIKELY TO SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PEAKING NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF US ON THE CAPROCK THURSDAY
DUE TO RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE SEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS AND MILD OVERNIGHTS. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS BUT THEN BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD
EVEN STRONGER AS DEEP LOW APPROACHES PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  66  96 /  40  10   0   0
TULIA         66  94  69  96 /  50  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     68  94  69  97 /  50  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     67  96  70  98 /  40  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  96  73  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  97  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  96  71  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  98  74 102 /  50  20   0   0
SPUR          69  97  73 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  76 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

74/55




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF NM
LATER THIS EVENING THAT MAY PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS
COULD AFFECT ALL THREE TERMINALS LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...SO LEFT
MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...CHANCE OF POP-UP
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...HOWEVER EXACT CHANCE OF A TSTM AFFECTING A TERMINAL IS LOW.
WILL ADDRESS POP-UP STORMS WITH TEMPO AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  92  66  96 /  40  10   0  10
TULIA         66  93  68  97 /  60  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     67  93  69  97 /  60  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  95  70  98 /  50  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  95  72  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  97  69  99 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  95  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  98  74 102 /  60  20   0   0
SPUR          69  96  72 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  75 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74





000
FXUS64 KLUB 031728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF NM
LATER THIS EVENING THAT MAY PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS
COULD AFFECT ALL THREE TERMINALS LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...SO LEFT
MENTION OF TSTMS OUT OF TAFS ATTM. OTHERWISE...CHANCE OF POP-UP
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...HOWEVER EXACT CHANCE OF A TSTM AFFECTING A TERMINAL IS LOW.
WILL ADDRESS POP-UP STORMS WITH TEMPO AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  92  66  96 /  40  10   0  10
TULIA         66  93  68  97 /  60  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     67  93  69  97 /  60  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     66  95  70  98 /  50  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  95  72  99 /  50  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  97  69  99 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  95  70  99 /  40  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  98  74 102 /  60  20   0   0
SPUR          69  96  72 101 /  50  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 100  75 103 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/74




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO
SPOTTY TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY SITE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALL SITES COULD GET IN ON THESE...BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HELP
PROVIDE LIFT FOR THESE STORMS LATER ON TODAY...BUT AIRMASS
RECOVERY IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE
EVALUATED IN TERMS OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING AND DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT SHOULD
NEGATE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  92  66 /  40  40  10   0
TULIA         91  66  93  68 /  40  60  10   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  40  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  70 /  40  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       93  70  95  72 /  30  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   94  66  97  69 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  67  95  70 /  30  40  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  73  98  74 /  60  60  20   0
SPUR          95  69  96  72 /  40  50  20   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 100  75 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 031144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO
SPOTTY TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY SITE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALL SITES COULD GET IN ON THESE...BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HELP
PROVIDE LIFT FOR THESE STORMS LATER ON TODAY...BUT AIRMASS
RECOVERY IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE
EVALUATED IN TERMS OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING AND DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT SHOULD
NEGATE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  92  66 /  40  40  10   0
TULIA         91  66  93  68 /  40  60  10   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  40  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  70 /  40  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       93  70  95  72 /  30  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   94  66  97  69 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  67  95  70 /  30  40  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  73  98  74 /  60  60  20   0
SPUR          95  69  96  72 /  40  50  20   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 100  75 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO
SPOTTY TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY SITE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALL SITES COULD GET IN ON THESE...BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HELP
PROVIDE LIFT FOR THESE STORMS LATER ON TODAY...BUT AIRMASS
RECOVERY IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE
EVALUATED IN TERMS OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING AND DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT SHOULD
NEGATE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  92  66 /  40  40  10   0
TULIA         91  66  93  68 /  40  60  10   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  40  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  70 /  40  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       93  70  95  72 /  30  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   94  66  97  69 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  67  95  70 /  30  40  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  73  98  74 /  60  60  20   0
SPUR          95  69  96  72 /  40  50  20   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 100  75 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 031144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE REMAINS TOO
SPOTTY TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY SITE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ALL SITES COULD GET IN ON THESE...BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HELP
PROVIDE LIFT FOR THESE STORMS LATER ON TODAY...BUT AIRMASS
RECOVERY IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE
EVALUATED IN TERMS OF DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING AND DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT SHOULD
NEGATE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  92  66 /  40  40  10   0
TULIA         91  66  93  68 /  40  60  10   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  40  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  70 /  40  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       93  70  95  72 /  30  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   94  66  97  69 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  67  95  70 /  30  40  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  73  98  74 /  60  60  20   0
SPUR          95  69  96  72 /  40  50  20   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 100  75 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  92  66 /  40  40  10   0
TULIA         91  66  93  68 /  40  60  10   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  40  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  70 /  40  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       93  70  95  72 /  30  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   94  66  97  69 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  67  95  70 /  30  40  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  73  98  74 /  60  60  20   0
SPUR          95  69  96  72 /  40  50  20   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 100  75 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  92  66 /  40  40  10   0
TULIA         91  66  93  68 /  40  60  10   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  40  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  70 /  40  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       93  70  95  72 /  30  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   94  66  97  69 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  67  95  70 /  30  40  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  73  98  74 /  60  60  20   0
SPUR          95  69  96  72 /  40  50  20   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 100  75 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/51




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  92  66 /  40  40  10   0
TULIA         91  66  93  68 /  40  60  10   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  40  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  70 /  40  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       93  70  95  72 /  30  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   94  66  97  69 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  67  95  70 /  30  40  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  73  98  74 /  60  60  20   0
SPUR          95  69  96  72 /  40  50  20   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 100  75 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030900
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
MORNING...BEING SUSTAINED BY A 20-25 KNOT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET ATOP NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...LIKELY
LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS PAST
DAYBREAK.

CONVECTIVE SETUP FOR TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT A FEW MORE PROMINENT LIFTING MECHANISMS COULD VERY
WELL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SHOULD SEE THIS FEATURE RETURN NORTH AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
PRESSURE FALLS RESULTING FROM LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE FRONT
RANGE SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. THE SECOND
FEATURE OF NOTE IS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHICH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BEGIN IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WHERE SURFACE
BASED CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WITH AN EARLIER BREACHING
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES DUE TO BETTER EARLY DAY INSOLATION.
TIMING OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON
STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE...BOTH IN TERMS OF LIFT AND PERHAPS
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP SUSTAIN
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT MOVE IN AND SHUTOFF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST. BEFORE THEN...RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL PROMOTE A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT ENHANCED STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT BEING MIXED DOWN THROUGH
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR AS SHOWN VIA INVERTED-V SOUNDING
PROFILES.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO REMOVE MOST MENTIONABLE POPS LATER THIS WEEK AS MODELS HAVE
BECOME MUCH LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT A FROPA BY PUTTING MORE
INFLUENCE ON THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING THE SHORTWAVE. THE RIDGE AXIS
BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT MOST CHANCES AT CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPS
A GOOD BIT INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. LUBBOCK EVEN HAS A SHOT AT
SEEING ITS FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH RAIN
IS A GOOD THING...THIS UP COMING DRY SPELL WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF TO
PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS THAT HAVE SEEN
MANY CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RAIN THAT AT MANY TIMES HAS BEEN HEAVY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        89  64  92  66 /  40  40  10   0
TULIA         91  66  93  68 /  40  60  10   0
PLAINVIEW     91  67  93  69 /  40  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  70 /  40  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       93  70  95  72 /  30  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   94  66  97  69 /  30  30  10   0
BROWNFIELD    95  67  95  70 /  30  40  10   0
CHILDRESS     95  73  98  74 /  60  60  20   0
SPUR          95  69  96  72 /  40  50  20   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 100  75 /  30  30  20   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/51




000
FXUS64 KLUB 030504 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1204 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BUT THUNDERSTORMS
COULD IMPACT KLBB...KCDS...AND KPVW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. STORMS ARE APPROACHING KCDS SO TEMPO GROUP LOOKS PRETTY
SOLID...KLBB AND KPVW ARE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT ON TIMING FOR STORMS
AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AMENDMENTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE METEOROLOGICAL PICTURE UNFOLDS
BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. THERE ARE
SCATTERED STORMS TO THE WEST OF KLBB THAT MAY COLLAPSE AND RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL AND OPTED TO INCLUDE
VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE
IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE TS AT KLBB. KPVW MAY ALSO SEE STORMS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. KCDS
APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY STORM
CHANCES FOR NOW...BUT STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF
THIS TERMINAL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST
FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID-
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND ON INTO MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY REGION
FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO SEE IF
ANYTHING CAN GROW OUT OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD PRESENT
OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE LOWER. ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. MODEST INSTABILITY...ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
MULTICELLS THAT OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ TAKES SHAPE...AND A SMALL MCS MAY EVEN ATTEMPT TO FORM WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A GLANCE BLOW OF LIFT FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IF THE
ADDED LIFT IS REALIZED THIS COULD FAVOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY...THOUGH
IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTN TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK
AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE
SRN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS AND BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MODERATES...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
MENTION TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA ON THE
ERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. AFTERWARDS...HOT AND DRY ARE THE
KEYWORDS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY.
NOT THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
TYPE OF BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ONE THAT MUST UNDERCUT A FAIRLY
STOUT UPPER RIDGE. AS A RESULT...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE GENERALLY BACK OFF ON THIS FRONT AND ITS RESIDENCE
TIME IN THE FCST AREA. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ATTM
BECAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE.
HOWEVER...DID FOLLOW THE TREND AND CUT BACK POPS SOME FROM
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  65  96 /  20  10   0  10
TULIA         65  93  67  97 /  40  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     67  93  68  97 /  30  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     67  95  69  98 /  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  95  72  99 /  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  97  67  99 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  95  69  99 /  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  98  73 102 /  30  20   0   0
SPUR          69  95  70 101 /  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     72 100  74 103 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/14/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 030504 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1204 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BUT THUNDERSTORMS
COULD IMPACT KLBB...KCDS...AND KPVW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. STORMS ARE APPROACHING KCDS SO TEMPO GROUP LOOKS PRETTY
SOLID...KLBB AND KPVW ARE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT ON TIMING FOR STORMS
AND LEFT OUT MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AMENDMENTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE METEOROLOGICAL PICTURE UNFOLDS
BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS THROUGH TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. THERE ARE
SCATTERED STORMS TO THE WEST OF KLBB THAT MAY COLLAPSE AND RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL AND OPTED TO INCLUDE
VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE
IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE TS AT KLBB. KPVW MAY ALSO SEE STORMS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. KCDS
APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY STORM
CHANCES FOR NOW...BUT STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF
THIS TERMINAL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST
FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID-
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND ON INTO MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY REGION
FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO SEE IF
ANYTHING CAN GROW OUT OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD PRESENT
OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE LOWER. ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. MODEST INSTABILITY...ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
MULTICELLS THAT OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ TAKES SHAPE...AND A SMALL MCS MAY EVEN ATTEMPT TO FORM WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A GLANCE BLOW OF LIFT FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IF THE
ADDED LIFT IS REALIZED THIS COULD FAVOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY...THOUGH
IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTN TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK
AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE
SRN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS AND BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MODERATES...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
MENTION TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA ON THE
ERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. AFTERWARDS...HOT AND DRY ARE THE
KEYWORDS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY.
NOT THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
TYPE OF BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ONE THAT MUST UNDERCUT A FAIRLY
STOUT UPPER RIDGE. AS A RESULT...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE GENERALLY BACK OFF ON THIS FRONT AND ITS RESIDENCE
TIME IN THE FCST AREA. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ATTM
BECAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE.
HOWEVER...DID FOLLOW THE TREND AND CUT BACK POPS SOME FROM
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  91  65  96 /  20  10   0  10
TULIA         65  93  67  97 /  40  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     67  93  68  97 /  30  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     67  95  69  98 /  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       71  95  72  99 /  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  97  67  99 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    68  95  69  99 /  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     72  98  73 102 /  30  20   0   0
SPUR          69  95  70 101 /  30  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     72 100  74 103 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/14/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022327 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. THERE ARE
SCATTERED STORMS TO THE WEST OF KLBB THAT MAY COLLAPSE AND RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL AND OPTED TO INCLUDE
VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE
IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE TS AT KLBB. KPVW MAY ALSO SEE STORMS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. KCDS
APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY STORM
CHANCES FOR NOW...BUT STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF
THIS TERMINAL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST
FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID-
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND ON INTO MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY REGION
FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO SEE IF
ANYTHING CAN GROW OUT OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD PRESENT
OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE LOWER. ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. MODEST INSTABILITY...ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
MULTICELLS THAT OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ TAKES SHAPE...AND A SMALL MCS MAY EVEN ATTEMPT TO FORM WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A GLANCE BLOW OF LIFT FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IF THE
ADDED LIFT IS REALIZED THIS COULD FAVOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY...THOUGH
IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTN TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK
AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE
SRN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS AND BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MODERATES...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
MENTION TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA ON THE
ERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. AFTERWARDS...HOT AND DRY ARE THE
KEYWORDS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY.
NOT THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
TYPE OF BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ONE THAT MUST UNDERCUT A FAIRLY
STOUT UPPER RIDGE. AS A RESULT...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE GENERALLY BACK OFF ON THIS FRONT AND ITS RESIDENCE
TIME IN THE FCST AREA. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ATTM
BECAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE.
HOWEVER...DID FOLLOW THE TREND AND CUT BACK POPS SOME FROM
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  64  91 /  40  40  20  10
TULIA         66  90  65  93 /  40  40  40  10
PLAINVIEW     66  91  67  93 /  40  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  67  95 /  30  40  30  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  71  95 /  30  30  30  10
DENVER CITY   67  94  66  97 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    68  95  68  95 /  30  30  30  10
CHILDRESS     71  94  72  98 /  40  40  30  20
SPUR          68  96  69  95 /  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     71  98  72 100 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022327 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. THERE ARE
SCATTERED STORMS TO THE WEST OF KLBB THAT MAY COLLAPSE AND RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL AND OPTED TO INCLUDE
VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE
IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE TS AT KLBB. KPVW MAY ALSO SEE STORMS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. KCDS
APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY STORM
CHANCES FOR NOW...BUT STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF
THIS TERMINAL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST
FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID-
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND ON INTO MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY REGION
FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO SEE IF
ANYTHING CAN GROW OUT OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD PRESENT
OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE LOWER. ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. MODEST INSTABILITY...ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
MULTICELLS THAT OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ TAKES SHAPE...AND A SMALL MCS MAY EVEN ATTEMPT TO FORM WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A GLANCE BLOW OF LIFT FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IF THE
ADDED LIFT IS REALIZED THIS COULD FAVOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY...THOUGH
IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTN TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK
AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE
SRN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS AND BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MODERATES...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
MENTION TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA ON THE
ERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. AFTERWARDS...HOT AND DRY ARE THE
KEYWORDS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY.
NOT THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
TYPE OF BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ONE THAT MUST UNDERCUT A FAIRLY
STOUT UPPER RIDGE. AS A RESULT...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE GENERALLY BACK OFF ON THIS FRONT AND ITS RESIDENCE
TIME IN THE FCST AREA. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ATTM
BECAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE.
HOWEVER...DID FOLLOW THE TREND AND CUT BACK POPS SOME FROM
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  64  91 /  40  40  20  10
TULIA         66  90  65  93 /  40  40  40  10
PLAINVIEW     66  91  67  93 /  40  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  67  95 /  30  40  30  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  71  95 /  30  30  30  10
DENVER CITY   67  94  66  97 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    68  95  68  95 /  30  30  30  10
CHILDRESS     71  94  72  98 /  40  40  30  20
SPUR          68  96  69  95 /  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     71  98  72 100 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 022327 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. THERE ARE
SCATTERED STORMS TO THE WEST OF KLBB THAT MAY COLLAPSE AND RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL AND OPTED TO INCLUDE
VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE
IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE TS AT KLBB. KPVW MAY ALSO SEE STORMS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. KCDS
APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY STORM
CHANCES FOR NOW...BUT STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF
THIS TERMINAL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST
FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID-
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND ON INTO MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY REGION
FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO SEE IF
ANYTHING CAN GROW OUT OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD PRESENT
OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE LOWER. ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. MODEST INSTABILITY...ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
MULTICELLS THAT OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ TAKES SHAPE...AND A SMALL MCS MAY EVEN ATTEMPT TO FORM WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A GLANCE BLOW OF LIFT FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IF THE
ADDED LIFT IS REALIZED THIS COULD FAVOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY...THOUGH
IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTN TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK
AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE
SRN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS AND BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MODERATES...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
MENTION TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA ON THE
ERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. AFTERWARDS...HOT AND DRY ARE THE
KEYWORDS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY.
NOT THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
TYPE OF BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ONE THAT MUST UNDERCUT A FAIRLY
STOUT UPPER RIDGE. AS A RESULT...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE GENERALLY BACK OFF ON THIS FRONT AND ITS RESIDENCE
TIME IN THE FCST AREA. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ATTM
BECAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE.
HOWEVER...DID FOLLOW THE TREND AND CUT BACK POPS SOME FROM
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  64  91 /  40  40  20  10
TULIA         66  90  65  93 /  40  40  40  10
PLAINVIEW     66  91  67  93 /  40  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  67  95 /  30  40  30  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  71  95 /  30  30  30  10
DENVER CITY   67  94  66  97 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    68  95  68  95 /  30  30  30  10
CHILDRESS     71  94  72  98 /  40  40  30  20
SPUR          68  96  69  95 /  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     71  98  72 100 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 022327 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. THERE ARE
SCATTERED STORMS TO THE WEST OF KLBB THAT MAY COLLAPSE AND RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL AND OPTED TO INCLUDE
VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE
IF WE NEED TO INCLUDE TS AT KLBB. KPVW MAY ALSO SEE STORMS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME. KCDS
APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY STORM
CHANCES FOR NOW...BUT STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF
THIS TERMINAL. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST
FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID-
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND ON INTO MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY REGION
FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO SEE IF
ANYTHING CAN GROW OUT OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD PRESENT
OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE LOWER. ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. MODEST INSTABILITY...ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
MULTICELLS THAT OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ TAKES SHAPE...AND A SMALL MCS MAY EVEN ATTEMPT TO FORM WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A GLANCE BLOW OF LIFT FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IF THE
ADDED LIFT IS REALIZED THIS COULD FAVOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY...THOUGH
IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTN TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK
AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE
SRN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS AND BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MODERATES...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
MENTION TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA ON THE
ERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. AFTERWARDS...HOT AND DRY ARE THE
KEYWORDS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY.
NOT THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
TYPE OF BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ONE THAT MUST UNDERCUT A FAIRLY
STOUT UPPER RIDGE. AS A RESULT...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE GENERALLY BACK OFF ON THIS FRONT AND ITS RESIDENCE
TIME IN THE FCST AREA. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ATTM
BECAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE.
HOWEVER...DID FOLLOW THE TREND AND CUT BACK POPS SOME FROM
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  64  91 /  40  40  20  10
TULIA         66  90  65  93 /  40  40  40  10
PLAINVIEW     66  91  67  93 /  40  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  67  95 /  30  40  30  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  71  95 /  30  30  30  10
DENVER CITY   67  94  66  97 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    68  95  68  95 /  30  30  30  10
CHILDRESS     71  94  72  98 /  40  40  30  20
SPUR          68  96  69  95 /  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     71  98  72 100 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021952
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST
FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID-
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND ON INTO MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY REGION
FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO SEE IF
ANYTHING CAN GROW OUT OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD PRESENT
OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE LOWER. ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. MODEST INSTABILITY...ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
MULTICELLS THAT OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ TAKES SHAPE...AND A SMALL MCS MAY EVEN ATTEMPT TO FORM WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A GLANCE BLOW OF LIFT FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IF THE
ADDED LIFT IS REALIZED THIS COULD FAVOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY...THOUGH
IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTN TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK
AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE
SRN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS AND BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MODERATES...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
MENTION TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA ON THE
ERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. AFTERWARDS...HOT AND DRY ARE THE
KEYWORDS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY.
NOT THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
TYPE OF BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ONE THAT MUST UNDERCUT A FAIRLY
STOUT UPPER RIDGE. AS A RESULT...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE GENERALLY BACK OFF ON THIS FRONT AND ITS RESIDENCE
TIME IN THE FCST AREA. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ATTM
BECAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE.
HOWEVER...DID FOLLOW THE TREND AND CUT BACK POPS SOME FROM
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  64  91 /  40  40  20  10
TULIA         66  90  65  93 /  40  40  40  10
PLAINVIEW     66  91  67  93 /  40  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  67  95 /  30  40  30  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  71  95 /  30  30  30  10
DENVER CITY   67  94  66  97 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    68  95  68  95 /  30  30  30  10
CHILDRESS     71  94  72  98 /  40  40  30  20
SPUR          68  96  69  95 /  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     71  98  72 100 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021952
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST
FLANK OF A RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD MID-
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN AND MOVING AROUND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED. THIS SETUP WILL PROVIDE MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND ON INTO MONDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY REGION
FOR CI THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO SEE IF
ANYTHING CAN GROW OUT OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD PRESENT
OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE INSTABILITY LEVELS ARE LOWER. ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD GENERALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. MODEST INSTABILITY...ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW
MULTICELLS THAT OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS AND PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SOME CONVECTION COULD
LINGER OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LLJ TAKES SHAPE...AND A SMALL MCS MAY EVEN ATTEMPT TO FORM WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SIMILAR PATTERN SHOULD UNFOLD AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A GLANCE BLOW OF LIFT FROM AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IF THE
ADDED LIFT IS REALIZED THIS COULD FAVOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE MODESTLY...THOUGH
IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTN TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GOOD SHOT A PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEK
AS CENTER/AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD TO THE
SRN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT OCCURS AND BEFORE LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MODERATES...THERE LOOKS TO BE ONE LAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO
MENTION TUESDAY AFTN ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA ON THE
ERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STILL BE CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF THE FCST AREA. AFTERWARDS...HOT AND DRY ARE THE
KEYWORDS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA FRIDAY.
NOT THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
TYPE OF BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY ONE THAT MUST UNDERCUT A FAIRLY
STOUT UPPER RIDGE. AS A RESULT...NOT SURPRISED TO SEE THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE GENERALLY BACK OFF ON THIS FRONT AND ITS RESIDENCE
TIME IN THE FCST AREA. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ATTM
BECAUSE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE.
HOWEVER...DID FOLLOW THE TREND AND CUT BACK POPS SOME FROM
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  64  91 /  40  40  20  10
TULIA         66  90  65  93 /  40  40  40  10
PLAINVIEW     66  91  67  93 /  40  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  67  95 /  30  40  30  10
LUBBOCK       69  94  71  95 /  30  30  30  10
DENVER CITY   67  94  66  97 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    68  95  68  95 /  30  30  30  10
CHILDRESS     71  94  72  98 /  40  40  30  20
SPUR          68  96  69  95 /  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     71  98  72 100 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021738
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT. THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KLBB AND KPVW...WITH THE LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
KCDS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE...PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION...NO EXPLICIT MENTION WAS CARRIED IN THE TAFS
ATTM...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORM INFLUENCES MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A RISK OF LOW CLOUDS/BR BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH MID-MORNING. GIVEN THIS TREND WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL MENTION
OUT EAST WHERE A FEW MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT STILL APPEARS THE DIRTY RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEARBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING PAIRS WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR CI. DECENT INSTABILITY...ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW PERIODICALLY STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WHILE MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FURTHER EAST. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO SEE IF A
MCS CAN FORM ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  66  94 /  30  30  20  10
TULIA         65  91  68  94 /  40  40  30  10
PLAINVIEW     67  92  69  95 /  40  40  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  69  96 /  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  93  71  96 /  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  95  69  97 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  95  70  97 /  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  94  73  98 /  40  30  30  20
SPUR          69  95  72  98 /  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     71  97  75  99 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021738
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT. THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KLBB AND KPVW...WITH THE LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
KCDS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE...PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION...NO EXPLICIT MENTION WAS CARRIED IN THE TAFS
ATTM...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORM INFLUENCES MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A RISK OF LOW CLOUDS/BR BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH MID-MORNING. GIVEN THIS TREND WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL MENTION
OUT EAST WHERE A FEW MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT STILL APPEARS THE DIRTY RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEARBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING PAIRS WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR CI. DECENT INSTABILITY...ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW PERIODICALLY STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WHILE MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FURTHER EAST. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO SEE IF A
MCS CAN FORM ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  66  94 /  30  30  20  10
TULIA         65  91  68  94 /  40  40  30  10
PLAINVIEW     67  92  69  95 /  40  40  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  69  96 /  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  93  71  96 /  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  95  69  97 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  95  70  97 /  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  94  73  98 /  40  30  30  20
SPUR          69  95  72  98 /  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     71  97  75  99 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021738
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A POSSIBLE
COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT. THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF AFFECTING
KLBB AND KPVW...WITH THE LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
KCDS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE...PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION...NO EXPLICIT MENTION WAS CARRIED IN THE TAFS
ATTM...THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORM INFLUENCES MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE A RISK OF LOW CLOUDS/BR BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH MID-MORNING. GIVEN THIS TREND WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL MENTION
OUT EAST WHERE A FEW MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT STILL APPEARS THE DIRTY RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEARBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING PAIRS WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR CI. DECENT INSTABILITY...ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW PERIODICALLY STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WHILE MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FURTHER EAST. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO SEE IF A
MCS CAN FORM ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  66  94 /  30  30  20  10
TULIA         65  91  68  94 /  40  40  30  10
PLAINVIEW     67  92  69  95 /  40  40  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  94  69  96 /  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  93  71  96 /  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  95  69  97 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  95  70  97 /  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  94  73  98 /  40  30  30  20
SPUR          69  95  72  98 /  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     71  97  75  99 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021548 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH MID-MORNING. GIVEN THIS TREND WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL MENTION
OUT EAST WHERE A FEW MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT STILL APPEARS THE DIRTY RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEARBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING PAIRS WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR CI. DECENT INSTABILITY...ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW PERIODICALLY STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WHILE MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FURTHER EAST. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO SEE IF A
MCS CAN FORM ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND KCDS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY IN VICINITY OF KPVW WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KLBB. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD COME INTO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TIMING AND COVERAGE
STILL REMAIN TOO QUESTIONABLE TO EXPLICITLY PLACE MENTION IN ANY
TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. MIXED
SIGNAL ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL AGAIN WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY BEFORE ASSESSING ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  90  66 /  30  30  30  20
TULIA         90  65  91  68 /  30  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     92  67  92  69 /  30  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     94  67  94  69 /  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  93  71 /  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  67  95  69 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  67  95  70 /  30  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     93  71  94  73 /  20  40  30  30
SPUR          96  69  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     97  71  97  75 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021548 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OFF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH MID-MORNING. GIVEN THIS TREND WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MINIMAL MENTION
OUT EAST WHERE A FEW MID-LEVEL SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT STILL APPEARS THE DIRTY RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEARBY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. THE
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING PAIRS WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SUBTLE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO ACT AS A
FOCUS FOR CI. DECENT INSTABILITY...ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS AND
RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW PERIODICALLY STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON POPS INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WHILE MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FURTHER EAST. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO SEE IF A
MCS CAN FORM ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND KCDS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY IN VICINITY OF KPVW WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KLBB. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD COME INTO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TIMING AND COVERAGE
STILL REMAIN TOO QUESTIONABLE TO EXPLICITLY PLACE MENTION IN ANY
TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. MIXED
SIGNAL ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL AGAIN WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY BEFORE ASSESSING ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  90  66 /  30  30  30  20
TULIA         90  65  91  68 /  30  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     92  67  92  69 /  30  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     94  67  94  69 /  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  93  71 /  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  67  95  69 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  67  95  70 /  30  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     93  71  94  73 /  20  40  30  30
SPUR          96  69  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     97  71  97  75 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND KCDS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY IN VICINITY OF KPVW WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KLBB. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD COME INTO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TIMING AND COVERAGE
STILL REMAIN TOO QUESTIONABLE TO EXPLICITLY PLACE MENTION IN ANY
TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. MIXED
SIGNAL ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL AGAIN WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY BEFORE ASSESSING ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  90  66 /  20  30  30  20
TULIA         90  65  91  68 /  20  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     92  67  92  69 /  20  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     94  67  94  69 /  20  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  67  95  69 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  67  95  70 /  20  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     93  71  94  73 /  30  40  30  30
SPUR          96  69  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     97  71  97  75 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 021141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND KCDS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY IN VICINITY OF KPVW WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KLBB. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD COME INTO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TIMING AND COVERAGE
STILL REMAIN TOO QUESTIONABLE TO EXPLICITLY PLACE MENTION IN ANY
TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. MIXED
SIGNAL ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL AGAIN WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY BEFORE ASSESSING ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  90  66 /  20  30  30  20
TULIA         90  65  91  68 /  20  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     92  67  92  69 /  20  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     94  67  94  69 /  20  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  67  95  69 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  67  95  70 /  20  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     93  71  94  73 /  30  40  30  30
SPUR          96  69  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     97  71  97  75 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND KCDS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY IN VICINITY OF KPVW WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KLBB. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD COME INTO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TIMING AND COVERAGE
STILL REMAIN TOO QUESTIONABLE TO EXPLICITLY PLACE MENTION IN ANY
TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. MIXED
SIGNAL ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL AGAIN WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY BEFORE ASSESSING ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  90  66 /  20  30  30  20
TULIA         90  65  91  68 /  20  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     92  67  92  69 /  20  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     94  67  94  69 /  20  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  67  95  69 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  67  95  70 /  20  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     93  71  94  73 /  30  40  30  30
SPUR          96  69  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     97  71  97  75 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 021141
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND KCDS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL FOR BRIEF
PERIODS THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY IN VICINITY OF KPVW WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KLBB. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD COME INTO THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS ATTEMPTS TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TIMING AND COVERAGE
STILL REMAIN TOO QUESTIONABLE TO EXPLICITLY PLACE MENTION IN ANY
TAF...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES. MIXED
SIGNAL ON WHETHER LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...SO WILL AGAIN WAIT AND SEE HOW THE
WEATHER EVOLVES TODAY BEFORE ASSESSING ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  90  66 /  20  30  30  20
TULIA         90  65  91  68 /  20  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     92  67  92  69 /  20  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     94  67  94  69 /  20  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  67  95  69 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  67  95  70 /  20  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     93  71  94  73 /  30  40  30  30
SPUR          96  69  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     97  71  97  75 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 020837
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  90  66 /  20  30  30  20
TULIA         90  65  91  68 /  20  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     92  67  92  69 /  20  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     94  67  94  69 /  20  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  67  95  69 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  67  95  70 /  20  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     93  71  94  73 /  30  40  30  30
SPUR          96  69  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     97  71  97  75 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020837
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS
STILL LOOMING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT RADAR
IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW RAPID DECAY OF THIS LATTER ACTIVITY AS
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION ADVECTS NORTH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LAST PAST DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A LIKELY LULL DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH A
CHUNK OF THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE BACK NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AS INCREASING WINDS TAKE ON A GOOD SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT OWING TO PRESSURE FALLS IN THE PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGHING
FROM THE FRONT RANGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE. ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER
INSOLATION...ESPECIALLY EARLIER TODAY...SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. WITH SOMEWHAT DELAYED DIURNAL HEATING EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT FOLLOWING THE MIXING OUT OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER LEFTOVER
BY THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...STORMS SHOULD FIRE THERE POSSIBLY AS
LATE AS THIS EVENING WHILE PERHAPS BEING AIDED BY BOUNDARIES SPAWNED
BY CONVECTION FARTHER WEST.

ONSET OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOSTER
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WHILE CONTINUED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION LOADING AND SLOW STORM PROPAGATION WILL BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUES SEEMS TO STILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL...THAT IS
THE 00Z RUNS...IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z TUES. CONVERGENT FLOW AT THE SURFACE IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA IS FORECASTED TO WORK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TO
DEVELOP EARLY EVENING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS IS WILL THE
SHORTWAVE BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN MEXICO COAST
IN TIME OR WILL DRY AIR STILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE MON...WHICH THE
MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE IN TIME. CHANCE
POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN PLACE FOR NOW DUE TO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY LATE
TUES AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES BACK EAST. THINGS MAY TURN WET AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY OVERHEAD AND WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD TO CANADA THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF
GIVES THE RIDGE A STEROID SHOT TO NOT STRENGTHEN IT BUT EXPAND IT
NORTHWARD...WESTWARD...AND EASTWARD.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  65  90  66 /  20  30  30  20
TULIA         90  65  91  68 /  20  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     92  67  92  69 /  20  40  40  20
LEVELLAND     94  67  94  69 /  20  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       94  70  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   96  67  95  69 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    96  67  95  70 /  20  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     93  71  94  73 /  30  40  30  30
SPUR          96  69  95  72 /  20  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     97  71  97  75 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/51




000
FXUS64 KLUB 020452
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE THE CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE
MORE SO FOR KCDS THAN ANY OTHER. STORMS RECENTLY HAVE ENHANCED
ACROSS THE TX PNHDL WITH EXTRAPOLATION INTO THE KCDS SITE AT VALID
TIME. ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST MAY APPROACH KPVW BUT WITH SLOW
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH WINDS MORE
SOUTHERLY. WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO BE
DEALT WITH TOWARD 00Z/AUG03 AS LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS GROWING MCS
ACROSS THE TX PNHDL/ERN NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WE HAVE HAD CONVECTION...ALBEIT ATROPHYING IN COVERAGE...HANG ON
OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS WHAT REMAINS OF A COMPLEX THAT BROUGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
A SWATH FROM NEAR TULIA TO FLOMOT TO PADUCAH MUCH EARLIER TODAY.
WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE PERSISTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO CLIMB...WITH MANY SPOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS ONLY IN THE 70S AT 2 PM. THIS RELATIVELY COOL AIR FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST STRONGER HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...RESULTING IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL INHIBITION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. IN ADDITION...A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE
PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A FOCUS THAT TOWERING CU AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE ALREADY INITIATING OVER LEA COUNTY THEN BENDING EASTWARD
TOWARD ANDREWS...BIG SPRING AND SWEETWATER. THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK WINDS /AND WIND SHEAR/
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT INDIVIDUAL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
DURATION...THOUGH THEY WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY. THE SLOW STORM MOTION
IN CONJUNCTION WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WILL SUPPORT A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHILE PRECIP LOADING AND A DEEP WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAY TEND TO WANE DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS. STILL...WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NM CAN BE
MAINTAINED AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A DECENT BET AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST
ZONES COULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A MODEST AND
MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IMPINGES ON THAT AREA. THE ONE
NEGATING FACTOR WILL BE THAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH MAY BEGIN ADVANCING INTO THE FA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH BENDING EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE OF STORMS. EVEN WITH THE DRYING AIR ALOFT...PWATS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN ELEVATED WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-60S TO
LOWER 70S. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASED INSOLATION
FROM TODAY /AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES/ SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WE DID DROP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE SWATH THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST RAIN EARLIER TODAY.

LONG TERM...
ONE MORE RELATIVELY WET DAY MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL MCS SUNDAY NIGHT TO LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTN ON THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WHAT LOOKS
TO BE ONE FINAL NOCTURNAL MCS MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS AS DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS SEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY AS PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGGED TO CROSS THE CNTL PLAINS TUESDAY COMBINED WITH AN EASTERLY
WAVE EXITING MEXICO SOUTH OF BAJA SHOULD SEE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION SHEARED OUT. SHORTLY AFTERWARDS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD SHUT OF PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXCEPTION COULD COME FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...THIS ONE OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AS WELL AS PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OR JUST INTO
THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW TO
INSERT MENTION IN THE FCST ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  65  91 /  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  89  66  92 /  40  20  40  30
PLAINVIEW     68  91  68  93 /  30  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  93  68  95 /  30  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       70  93  71  94 /  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   68  95  67  96 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    69  94  68  96 /  30  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     71  94  71  95 /  40  30  30  30
SPUR          70  94  69  96 /  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  71  98 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24





000
FXUS64 KLUB 020452
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE THE CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE
MORE SO FOR KCDS THAN ANY OTHER. STORMS RECENTLY HAVE ENHANCED
ACROSS THE TX PNHDL WITH EXTRAPOLATION INTO THE KCDS SITE AT VALID
TIME. ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST MAY APPROACH KPVW BUT WITH SLOW
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH WINDS MORE
SOUTHERLY. WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO BE
DEALT WITH TOWARD 00Z/AUG03 AS LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS GROWING MCS
ACROSS THE TX PNHDL/ERN NM IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WE HAVE HAD CONVECTION...ALBEIT ATROPHYING IN COVERAGE...HANG ON
OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WELL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS WHAT REMAINS OF A COMPLEX THAT BROUGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
A SWATH FROM NEAR TULIA TO FLOMOT TO PADUCAH MUCH EARLIER TODAY.
WHERE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE PERSISTED TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO CLIMB...WITH MANY SPOTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS ONLY IN THE 70S AT 2 PM. THIS RELATIVELY COOL AIR FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST STRONGER HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S...RESULTING IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND MINIMAL INHIBITION NEAR THE TX/NM LINE INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. IN ADDITION...A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE
PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A FOCUS THAT TOWERING CU AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE ALREADY INITIATING OVER LEA COUNTY THEN BENDING EASTWARD
TOWARD ANDREWS...BIG SPRING AND SWEETWATER. THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK WINDS /AND WIND SHEAR/
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LIMIT INDIVIDUAL STORM ORGANIZATION AND
DURATION...THOUGH THEY WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWLY. THE SLOW STORM MOTION
IN CONJUNCTION WITH PWATS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WILL SUPPORT A LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHILE PRECIP LOADING AND A DEEP WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS...THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAY TEND TO WANE DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS. STILL...WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NM CAN BE
MAINTAINED AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A DECENT BET AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST
ZONES COULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS A MODEST AND
MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IMPINGES ON THAT AREA. THE ONE
NEGATING FACTOR WILL BE THAT DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH MAY BEGIN ADVANCING INTO THE FA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM CHANCES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH BENDING EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE OF STORMS. EVEN WITH THE DRYING AIR ALOFT...PWATS ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN ELEVATED WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-60S TO
LOWER 70S. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASED INSOLATION
FROM TODAY /AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES/ SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WE DID DROP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
THE SWATH THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST RAIN EARLIER TODAY.

LONG TERM...
ONE MORE RELATIVELY WET DAY MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL MCS SUNDAY NIGHT TO LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTN ON THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WHAT LOOKS
TO BE ONE FINAL NOCTURNAL MCS MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS AS DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS SEWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY AS PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGGED TO CROSS THE CNTL PLAINS TUESDAY COMBINED WITH AN EASTERLY
WAVE EXITING MEXICO SOUTH OF BAJA SHOULD SEE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION SHEARED OUT. SHORTLY AFTERWARDS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD SHUT OF PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXCEPTION COULD COME FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...THIS ONE OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AS WELL AS PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD OR JUST INTO
THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION IN THE NRN ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW TO
INSERT MENTION IN THE FCST ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  65  91 /  30  20  30  30
TULIA         66  89  66  92 /  40  20  40  30
PLAINVIEW     68  91  68  93 /  30  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  93  68  95 /  30  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       70  93  71  94 /  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   68  95  67  96 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    69  94  68  96 /  30  20  30  20
CHILDRESS     71  94  71  95 /  40  30  30  30
SPUR          70  94  69  96 /  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  71  98 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24




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