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000
FXUS64 KLUB 301129 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE KCDS TAF SITE THIS MORNING WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
BYPASSING KLBB. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AFTER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
PLACED PROB30 GROUPS IN BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND COULD
POTENTIALLY ALSO BRING IN MVFR TO HIGH IFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL BE IS NOT HIGH AND
WILL HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS MATCHES UP WITH
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AT 700 HPA LOCATED
ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A PRETTY BIG
BATCH OF CONVECTION...AND RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING NEW CONVECTION
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO.  THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS FOR THIS REGION.

NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE 00Z NAM/03Z RUC
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP THROUGH THE
DAY.  REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STILL EXPECT TO SEE
THE FRONT HELP FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LACK OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY KEEP BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE INSTEAD OF HAVING IT BEEN
WORKED OVER BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 75 TO 99
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
SHIELD IS FROM MORNING STORMS WHICH MAY IMPACT HIGHS ACROSS THIS
AREA.  ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE BEST COVERAGE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPS
TEMPS ACROSS THE CAPROCK FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. THIS
PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NORMALLY YIELD DECENT PROSPECTS FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...RATHER COOL AND STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND TODAY/S FROPA...AND THIS BRINGS QUESTION TO JUST HOW FAR EAST
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CAN MAKE IT EACH DAY. INSTEAD...THE CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E/INSTABILITY
AIR FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
STILL...AT LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
EDGE ACROSS THE STATE LINE...AND GIVEN THIS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO PICK UP ON A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROTATING AROUND/THROUGH THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVING TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THIS COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM CHANCES
AND PERHAPS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES
AND SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID NOT FULLY BITE OFF ON THIS YET...THOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. BEFORE THEN...RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS AND PERTURBED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
A STORM...INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE HELD ON TO A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH WE DID DRY IT OUT BEYOND 18Z.

BY LATE WEEKEND IT DOES APPEAR THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND BRING AN END TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION AS
THE MONSOONAL CONVECTION REMAINS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WESTERN DISTURBANCES BREAK OVER/THROUGH THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ANY INCREASED STORM CHANCES WITH THIS WOULD LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS EVEN THE UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG FOR EARLY
AUGUST. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO BREAK UP...AND THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OR ALL
OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  59  78  60  80 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         87  62  77  60  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  62  77  61  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  62  80  62  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  63  79  64  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  61  82  62  85 /  20  40  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  63  81  64  85 /  30  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     87  66  81  64  86 /  50  40  20  10  10
SPUR          93  66  80  64  86 /  30  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     98  69  83  66  87 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLUB 301129 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE KCDS TAF SITE THIS MORNING WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
BYPASSING KLBB. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AFTER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
PLACED PROB30 GROUPS IN BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND COULD
POTENTIALLY ALSO BRING IN MVFR TO HIGH IFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL BE IS NOT HIGH AND
WILL HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS MATCHES UP WITH
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AT 700 HPA LOCATED
ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A PRETTY BIG
BATCH OF CONVECTION...AND RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING NEW CONVECTION
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO.  THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS FOR THIS REGION.

NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE 00Z NAM/03Z RUC
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP THROUGH THE
DAY.  REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STILL EXPECT TO SEE
THE FRONT HELP FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LACK OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY KEEP BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE INSTEAD OF HAVING IT BEEN
WORKED OVER BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 75 TO 99
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
SHIELD IS FROM MORNING STORMS WHICH MAY IMPACT HIGHS ACROSS THIS
AREA.  ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE BEST COVERAGE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPS
TEMPS ACROSS THE CAPROCK FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. THIS
PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NORMALLY YIELD DECENT PROSPECTS FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...RATHER COOL AND STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND TODAY/S FROPA...AND THIS BRINGS QUESTION TO JUST HOW FAR EAST
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CAN MAKE IT EACH DAY. INSTEAD...THE CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E/INSTABILITY
AIR FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
STILL...AT LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
EDGE ACROSS THE STATE LINE...AND GIVEN THIS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO PICK UP ON A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROTATING AROUND/THROUGH THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVING TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THIS COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM CHANCES
AND PERHAPS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES
AND SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID NOT FULLY BITE OFF ON THIS YET...THOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. BEFORE THEN...RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS AND PERTURBED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
A STORM...INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE HELD ON TO A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH WE DID DRY IT OUT BEYOND 18Z.

BY LATE WEEKEND IT DOES APPEAR THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND BRING AN END TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION AS
THE MONSOONAL CONVECTION REMAINS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WESTERN DISTURBANCES BREAK OVER/THROUGH THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ANY INCREASED STORM CHANCES WITH THIS WOULD LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS EVEN THE UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG FOR EARLY
AUGUST. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO BREAK UP...AND THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OR ALL
OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  59  78  60  80 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         87  62  77  60  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  62  77  61  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  62  80  62  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  63  79  64  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  61  82  62  85 /  20  40  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  63  81  64  85 /  30  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     87  66  81  64  86 /  50  40  20  10  10
SPUR          93  66  80  64  86 /  30  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     98  69  83  66  87 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLUB 300914
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
414 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS MATCHES UP WITH
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AT 700 HPA LOCATED
ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A PRETTY BIG
BATCH OF CONVECTION...AND RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING NEW CONVECTION
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO.  THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS FOR THIS REGION.

NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE 00Z NAM/03Z RUC
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP THROUGH THE
DAY.  REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STILL EXPECT TO SEE
THE FRONT HELP FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LACK OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY KEEP BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE INSTEAD OF HAVING IT BEEN
WORKED OVER BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 75 TO 99
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
SHIELD IS FROM MORNING STORMS WHICH MAY IMPACT HIGHS ACROSS THIS
AREA.  ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE BEST COVERAGE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPS
TEMPS ACROSS THE CAPROCK FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. THIS
PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NORMALLY YIELD DECENT PROSPECTS FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...RATHER COOL AND STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND TODAY/S FROPA...AND THIS BRINGS QUESTION TO JUST HOW FAR EAST
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CAN MAKE IT EACH DAY. INSTEAD...THE CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E/INSTABILITY
AIR FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
STILL...AT LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
EDGE ACROSS THE STATE LINE...AND GIVEN THIS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO PICK UP ON A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROTATING AROUND/THROUGH THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVING TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THIS COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM CHANCES
AND PERHAPS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES
AND SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID NOT FULLY BITE OFF ON THIS YET...THOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. BEFORE THEN...RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS AND PERTURBED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
A STORM...INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE HELD ON TO A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH WE DID DRY IT OUT BEYOND 18Z.

BY LATE WEEKEND IT DOES APPEAR THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND BRING AN END TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION AS
THE MONSOONAL CONVECTION REMAINS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WESTERN DISTURBANCES BREAK OVER/THROUGH THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ANY INCREASED STORM CHANCES WITH THIS WOULD LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS EVEN THE UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG FOR EARLY
AUGUST. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO BREAK UP...AND THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OR ALL
OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  59  78  60  80 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         87  62  77  60  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  62  77  61  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  62  80  62  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  63  79  64  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  61  82  62  85 /  20  40  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  63  81  64  85 /  30  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     87  66  81  64  86 /  50  40  20  10  10
SPUR          93  66  80  64  86 /  30  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     98  69  83  66  87 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 300914
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
414 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS MATCHES UP WITH
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AT 700 HPA LOCATED
ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A PRETTY BIG
BATCH OF CONVECTION...AND RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING NEW CONVECTION
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO.  THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS FOR THIS REGION.

NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE 00Z NAM/03Z RUC
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP THROUGH THE
DAY.  REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STILL EXPECT TO SEE
THE FRONT HELP FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LACK OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY KEEP BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE INSTEAD OF HAVING IT BEEN
WORKED OVER BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 75 TO 99
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
SHIELD IS FROM MORNING STORMS WHICH MAY IMPACT HIGHS ACROSS THIS
AREA.  ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE BEST COVERAGE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPS
TEMPS ACROSS THE CAPROCK FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. THIS
PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NORMALLY YIELD DECENT PROSPECTS FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...RATHER COOL AND STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND TODAY/S FROPA...AND THIS BRINGS QUESTION TO JUST HOW FAR EAST
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CAN MAKE IT EACH DAY. INSTEAD...THE CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E/INSTABILITY
AIR FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
STILL...AT LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
EDGE ACROSS THE STATE LINE...AND GIVEN THIS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO PICK UP ON A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROTATING AROUND/THROUGH THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVING TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THIS COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM CHANCES
AND PERHAPS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES
AND SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID NOT FULLY BITE OFF ON THIS YET...THOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. BEFORE THEN...RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS AND PERTURBED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
A STORM...INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE HELD ON TO A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH WE DID DRY IT OUT BEYOND 18Z.

BY LATE WEEKEND IT DOES APPEAR THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND BRING AN END TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION AS
THE MONSOONAL CONVECTION REMAINS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WESTERN DISTURBANCES BREAK OVER/THROUGH THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ANY INCREASED STORM CHANCES WITH THIS WOULD LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS EVEN THE UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG FOR EARLY
AUGUST. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO BREAK UP...AND THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OR ALL
OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  59  78  60  80 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         87  62  77  60  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  62  77  61  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  62  80  62  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  63  79  64  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  61  82  62  85 /  20  40  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  63  81  64  85 /  30  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     87  66  81  64  86 /  50  40  20  10  10
SPUR          93  66  80  64  86 /  30  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     98  69  83  66  87 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 300446
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PERIODS. IMPACTING PRIMARILY CDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY FEATURING PERIODIC
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
CLEARING THE AREA VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...A BKN TO
OVC DECK OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY
THEREAFTER CAUSING PERIODIC VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR
CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A LESSER POSSIBILITY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION. ALL OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LBB AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION. EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. CHANCES APPEAR GREATEST
AT CDS THUS WARRANTING A PROB30 MENTION...BUT TOO LOW FOR MENTION
AT LBB AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  60  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  40  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 300446
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PERIODS. IMPACTING PRIMARILY CDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY FEATURING PERIODIC
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
CLEARING THE AREA VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...A BKN TO
OVC DECK OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY
THEREAFTER CAUSING PERIODIC VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR
CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A LESSER POSSIBILITY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION. ALL OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LBB AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION. EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. CHANCES APPEAR GREATEST
AT CDS THUS WARRANTING A PROB30 MENTION...BUT TOO LOW FOR MENTION
AT LBB AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  60  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  40  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16






000
FXUS64 KLUB 292310
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER
A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY CREATE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THIS CLOUD COVER...SO WILL TREAT
WITH A MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS THE TAFS FOR NOW. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
PRIMARILY CDS AFTER 2 AM AND LASTING POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT LBB...SO WILL
EXCLUDE A TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS TOMORROW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  50  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  30  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 292310
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER
A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY CREATE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THIS CLOUD COVER...SO WILL TREAT
WITH A MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS THE TAFS FOR NOW. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
PRIMARILY CDS AFTER 2 AM AND LASTING POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT LBB...SO WILL
EXCLUDE A TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS TOMORROW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  50  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  30  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16






000
FXUS64 KLUB 292210
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  50  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  30  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 292210
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  50  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  30  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99







000
FXUS64 KLUB 292037
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  50  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  30  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  30  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/31






000
FXUS64 KLUB 292037
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  50  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  30  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  30  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/31







000
FXUS64 KLUB 291728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BUT MAY YET STICK AROUND ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. STILL
LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION BEHIND DRIVEN
EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. CURRENT FCST HANDLES WELL AND WILL THUS
ADDRESS THAT SCENARIO WITH THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE LATER THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AT KLBB TO TAPER OFF AND NOT REALLY CAUSE ANY ISSUES
EARLY THIS AFTN WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS NEAR THE NM LINE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS WEST TO ERN NM WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF KLBB. KCDS WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING A TS TOWARD 06Z AND WILL KEEP PROB30
MENTION THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  80  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  70  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  80  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       85  69  93  62  79 /  80  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  50  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  50  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  30  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07






000
FXUS64 KLUB 291728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BUT MAY YET STICK AROUND ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. STILL
LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION BEHIND DRIVEN
EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. CURRENT FCST HANDLES WELL AND WILL THUS
ADDRESS THAT SCENARIO WITH THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE LATER THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AT KLBB TO TAPER OFF AND NOT REALLY CAUSE ANY ISSUES
EARLY THIS AFTN WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS NEAR THE NM LINE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS WEST TO ERN NM WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF KLBB. KCDS WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING A TS TOWARD 06Z AND WILL KEEP PROB30
MENTION THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  80  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  70  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  80  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       85  69  93  62  79 /  80  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  50  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  50  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  30  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07







000
FXUS64 KLUB 291205 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  80  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  70  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  80  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       86  69  94  63  79 /  70  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  50  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  50  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  30  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 291205 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  80  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  70  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  80  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       86  69  94  63  79 /  70  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  50  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  50  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  30  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 291132
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  70  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  60  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       86  69  94  63  79 /  50  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  30  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  30  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  40  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 291132
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  70  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  60  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       86  69  94  63  79 /  50  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  30  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  30  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  40  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 290921
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  70  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  60  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       85  69  93  62  79 /  50  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  30  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  30  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  40  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 290921
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  70  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  60  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       85  69  93  62  79 /  50  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  30  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  30  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  40  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 290455
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. LBB WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST
TERMINAL IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION...AS ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING CDS DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A BREAK IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POTENTIALLY REDEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS LATER
ACTIVITY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT CDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL IMPACTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
THE STUBBORN LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AS OF
00Z...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND CREEPING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE LINE VERY SLOWLY. IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST
HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE BEFORE
DIMINISHING...HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE BORDER. UPDATED POPS TO
ELIMINATE MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...AND
FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS WITH
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  40  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  30  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  30  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  20  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  30  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  20  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  20  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16






000
FXUS64 KLUB 290140
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STUBBORN LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AS OF
00Z...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND CREEPING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE LINE VERY SLOWLY. IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST
HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE BEFORE
DIMINISHING...HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE BORDER. UPDATED POPS TO
ELIMINATE MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...AND
FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS WITH
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  40  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  30  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  30  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  20  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  30  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  20  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  20  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 282321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  50  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  40  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  30  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  50  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  30  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16







000
FXUS64 KLUB 282321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  50  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  40  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  30  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  50  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  30  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16






000
FXUS64 KLUB 282035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  50  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  40  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  30  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  50  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  30  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/01






000
FXUS64 KLUB 282035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  50  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  40  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  30  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  50  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  30  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/01







000
FXUS64 KLUB 281734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENSIS HAS HELPED SUSTAIN CONVECTION FROM THE
PNHDL INTO WRN OK/NW TX. HAVE THUS KEPT VCTS IN KCDS TAF INTO THE
AFTN. VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUSHED IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO RENEWED
ACTIVITY WITH ONE OR MORE MCS/S DRIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED. WITH MOST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION IN
06-12Z TIMEFRAME HAVE CONTINUED PROB30 FORECAST FOR BOTH TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT KLBB. STRONG EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS FCST TO PERSIST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  63  84  62 /  50  40  30  40  30
TULIA         66  85  65  86  63 /  50  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     66  87  66  88  63 /  40  30  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     67  91  67  91  64 /  30  30  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       70  90  69  92  65 /  30  30  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   67  92  67  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    68  92  68  94  65 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     70  86  68  89  66 /  50  50  30  30  30
SPUR          68  91  68  96  66 /  30  30  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     71  92  71  98  70 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99







000
FXUS64 KLUB 281734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENSIS HAS HELPED SUSTAIN CONVECTION FROM THE
PNHDL INTO WRN OK/NW TX. HAVE THUS KEPT VCTS IN KCDS TAF INTO THE
AFTN. VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUSHED IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO RENEWED
ACTIVITY WITH ONE OR MORE MCS/S DRIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED. WITH MOST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION IN
06-12Z TIMEFRAME HAVE CONTINUED PROB30 FORECAST FOR BOTH TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT KLBB. STRONG EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS FCST TO PERSIST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  63  84  62 /  50  40  30  40  30
TULIA         66  85  65  86  63 /  50  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     66  87  66  88  63 /  40  30  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     67  91  67  91  64 /  30  30  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       70  90  69  92  65 /  30  30  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   67  92  67  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    68  92  68  94  65 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     70  86  68  89  66 /  50  50  30  30  30
SPUR          68  91  68  96  66 /  30  30  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     71  92  71  98  70 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 281146
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
646 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH RECENT DEVELOPMENT
HAS COME WITHIN 10-20 NM OF KCDS. KCDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF A STORM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH CONFIDENCE
OF A DIRECT IMPACT REMAIN RATHER LOW. HENCE WE HAVE DECIDED TO
CARRY VCTS AT KCDS THROUGH 18Z...AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. KLBB
WILL HAVE THE HIGHER THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM IMPACTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  64  86  63  84 /  40  50  40  30  40
TULIA         85  66  85  65  86 /  30  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     87  66  87  66  88 /  30  40  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     90  67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       89  70  90  69  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   92  67  92  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  68  92  68  94 /  30  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     89  70  86  68  89 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          92  68  91  68  96 /  30  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     95  71  92  71  98 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23






000
FXUS64 KLUB 281146
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
646 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH RECENT DEVELOPMENT
HAS COME WITHIN 10-20 NM OF KCDS. KCDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF A STORM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH CONFIDENCE
OF A DIRECT IMPACT REMAIN RATHER LOW. HENCE WE HAVE DECIDED TO
CARRY VCTS AT KCDS THROUGH 18Z...AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. KLBB
WILL HAVE THE HIGHER THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM IMPACTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  64  86  63  84 /  40  50  40  30  40
TULIA         85  66  85  65  86 /  30  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     87  66  87  66  88 /  30  40  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     90  67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       89  70  90  69  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   92  67  92  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  68  92  68  94 /  30  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     89  70  86  68  89 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          92  68  91  68  96 /  30  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     95  71  92  71  98 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23







000
FXUS64 KLUB 280905
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  64  86  63  84 /  40  50  40  30  40
TULIA         85  66  85  65  86 /  30  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     87  66  87  66  88 /  30  40  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     90  67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       89  70  90  70  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   92  67  92  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  68  92  68  94 /  30  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     89  70  86  68  89 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          92  68  91  68  96 /  30  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     95  71  92  71  98 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33






000
FXUS64 KLUB 280905
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  64  86  63  84 /  40  50  40  30  40
TULIA         85  66  85  65  86 /  30  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     87  66  87  66  88 /  30  40  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     90  67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       89  70  90  70  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   92  67  92  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  68  92  68  94 /  30  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     89  70  86  68  89 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          92  68  91  68  96 /  30  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     95  71  92  71  98 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33







000
FXUS64 KLUB 280455 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE KLBB
TERMINAL. FRONT MADE IT THROUGH KCDS WITH A NORTHEAST WIND 15G25KT
BUT EXPECT WIND SPEED TO BE A BIT LOWER AT KLBB. FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE START OF THE 06Z TAFS. STORMS FIRED ALONG
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF KLBB BUT HAVE DISSIPATED...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AT KLBB AND LEFT
POPS OUT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES
WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO CONTINUED THE PROB30
GROUPS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A PREVAILING TSRA IN AT THIS TIME BUT
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONT BUT LOCATION AND ONSET TIME REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING BEFORE THEN FOR NOW. WILL
EVALUATE WHEN THE LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND SEE
IF WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14






000
FXUS64 KLUB 280455 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE KLBB
TERMINAL. FRONT MADE IT THROUGH KCDS WITH A NORTHEAST WIND 15G25KT
BUT EXPECT WIND SPEED TO BE A BIT LOWER AT KLBB. FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE START OF THE 06Z TAFS. STORMS FIRED ALONG
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF KLBB BUT HAVE DISSIPATED...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AT KLBB AND LEFT
POPS OUT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES
WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO CONTINUED THE PROB30
GROUPS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A PREVAILING TSRA IN AT THIS TIME BUT
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONT BUT LOCATION AND ONSET TIME REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING BEFORE THEN FOR NOW. WILL
EVALUATE WHEN THE LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND SEE
IF WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14







000
FXUS64 KLUB 272340 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A PREVAILING TSRA IN AT THIS TIME BUT
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONT BUT LOCATION AND ONSET TIME REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING BEFORE THEN FOR NOW. WILL
EVALUATE WHEN THE LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND SEE
IF WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99






000
FXUS64 KLUB 272340 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A PREVAILING TSRA IN AT THIS TIME BUT
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONT BUT LOCATION AND ONSET TIME REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING BEFORE THEN FOR NOW. WILL
EVALUATE WHEN THE LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND SEE
IF WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99







000
FXUS64 KLUB 272017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/13








000
FXUS64 KLUB 272017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/13







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