000
FXUS64 KLUB 240422
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN EITHER TAF. ALSO OF QUESTION IS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL WITH SOME
EXPECTATION OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING LATE TONIGHT. WILL FOLLOW MODEL
LEAD FAVORING KCDS ATTM. AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTN AND
EVENING...00Z MODEL RUN OFFERING LITTLE GUIDANCE. SOME EXPECTATION
THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH DETAILS RELATED TO SFC
BOUNDARIES AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PARTICULAR STILL
FAR FROM KNOW. WILL FAVOR KLBB OVER KCDS ATTM WITH PROB30 MENTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED MOST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS A
MOIST 40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ RIDES OVER THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THIS WAA REGIME WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
EXCEPT NEAR WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ONE STORM THAT
DID IMPACT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT DROPPED AN IMPRESSIVE 0.80 INCH IN
A SHORT TIME. WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TRY
AND SNEAK IN FROM EASTERN NM...THOUGH IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTY
BREACHING THE STATE LINE ATTM. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 86 60 81 60 / 30 50 30 20 20
TULIA 63 84 62 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 85 63 81 62 / 30 50 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 64 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 84 65 82 63 / 40 50 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 86 64 81 61 / 20 50 30 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 86 65 82 62 / 30 50 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 65 84 66 83 66 / 30 30 30 20 20
SPUR 67 82 66 82 64 / 50 50 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 84 67 83 68 / 50 30 40 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 240311 AAB
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1011 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED MOST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AS A
MOIST 40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ RIDES OVER THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THIS WAA REGIME WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD
EXCEPT NEAR WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ONGOING. ONE STORM THAT
DID IMPACT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT DROPPED AN IMPRESSIVE 0.80 INCH IN
A SHORT TIME. WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TRY
AND SNEAK IN FROM EASTERN NM...THOUGH IT IS HAVING DIFFICULTY
BREACHING THE STATE LINE ATTM. UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 86 60 81 60 / 30 50 30 20 20
TULIA 63 84 62 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 85 63 81 62 / 30 50 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 64 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 84 65 82 64 / 40 50 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 86 64 81 61 / 20 50 30 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 86 65 82 62 / 30 50 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 65 84 66 83 66 / 30 30 30 20 20
SPUR 67 82 66 82 64 / 50 50 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 84 67 83 68 / 50 30 40 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 240204 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
904 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE REMAINDER OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR MASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FA ON GUSTY
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW/FRONT. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO SFC-BASED CONVECTION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...STOUT SOUTHEASTERLY
LLJ HAS RESULTED IN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ABOVE
THE COOLER SFC AIR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 86 60 81 60 / 40 50 30 20 20
TULIA 63 84 62 81 61 / 40 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 85 63 81 62 / 40 50 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 64 81 61 / 40 50 30 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 84 65 82 64 / 40 50 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 86 64 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 86 65 82 62 / 50 50 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 65 84 66 83 66 / 40 30 30 20 20
SPUR 67 82 66 82 64 / 40 50 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 84 67 83 68 / 40 30 40 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 232334
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
TSRA NOW SHIFTING WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES AND LIKELY TO STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH. SMALL CHANCE TS COULD MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KLBB
BY 03Z WHILE SOME INDICATIONS OF SH OR TS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE THAT COULD COME CLOSE TO KCDS. BOTH
SCENARIOS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MEANWHILE...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.
LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 86 60 81 60 / 40 50 30 20 20
TULIA 63 84 62 81 61 / 50 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 85 63 81 62 / 60 50 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 64 81 61 / 50 50 30 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 84 65 82 63 / 60 50 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 86 64 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 86 65 82 62 / 50 50 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 65 84 66 83 66 / 60 30 30 20 20
SPUR 67 82 66 82 64 / 60 50 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 84 67 83 68 / 60 30 40 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 232113
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...
THIS EVENING...WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LVL JET WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS ACROSS THE S-SE
FOR A SLOW-MOVING MCS THAT COULD BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON ANY LINGERING MORNING
CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST
OF THE FA AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS - HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE MIDDLE 80S IF MORNING CLOUD
COVER HANGS ON. AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES STILL APPEAR VALID ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL BE BACKED WEST INTO NEW MEXICO SO
THERE WILL NOT BE A STRONG SFC FORCING MECHANISM...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE TO THE SW SPLNS. WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED SLOW-MOVING STORMS. SVR HAIL AND WIND WILL STILL BE
A THREAT WITH LARGE INSTABILITY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MINIMAL UPDATES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN LIGHT OF IMPENDING
SEVERE WX THREAT. AN ACTIVE DRYLINE IS STILL A GOOD BET EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY BY MIDWEEK AS A MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH
EJECTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION...HOWEVER THE
TIMING OF THIS WAVE LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE
DRYLINE WILL RESIDE AS THE GFS FAVORS A FASTER WAVE AND MORE
EASTERLY DRYLINE VERSUS A SLOWER WAVE AND MORE WESTERLY DRYLINE
LONGITUDE PER THE ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. SEASONABLE
TEMPS OVERALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 86 60 81 60 / 40 50 30 20 20
TULIA 63 84 62 81 61 / 50 50 30 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 85 63 81 62 / 60 50 30 20 20
LEVELLAND 64 86 64 81 61 / 50 50 30 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 84 65 82 64 / 60 50 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 86 64 81 61 / 30 50 30 20 20
BROWNFIELD 64 86 65 82 62 / 50 50 30 20 20
CHILDRESS 65 84 66 83 66 / 60 30 30 20 20
SPUR 67 82 66 82 64 / 60 50 30 20 20
ASPERMONT 68 84 67 83 68 / 60 30 40 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ029-035-036.
&&
$$
33/93
000
FXUS64 KLUB 231736
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOR SEVERE TSRA IN THE VICINITY
OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THE PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT EACH TERMINAL THRU EARLY
EVENING....BUT LOW CHANCES OF -TSRA AND -SHRA WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS...TURBULENCE AND HAIL WILL BE FOUND
IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS AS WELL HAS BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HVY
RAIN AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME REGARDING COVERAGE AND TIMING. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
RETURN FRI MID-MORN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 59 82 60 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
TULIA 88 61 83 62 82 / 60 50 50 30 20
PLAINVIEW 92 62 84 63 82 / 60 60 50 30 20
LEVELLAND 94 62 84 64 82 / 40 50 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 94 62 86 65 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
DENVER CITY 93 62 85 64 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 93 62 86 65 83 / 30 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 89 64 85 66 84 / 60 60 30 30 20
SPUR 94 64 87 66 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
ASPERMONT 95 67 87 67 84 / 20 60 30 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS64 KLUB 231628 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS STILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. 15Z SURFACE OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN TX PANHANDLE WHILE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S HAVE RETURNED TO MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. IN
ADDITION...A MCS DIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL OKLA TO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY HAS SENT A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD...WHICH WILL BE
EDGING INTO OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY 11 AM. MORNING SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A MID-LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH MODEST FLOW FROM 700MB
TO 500MB AND A STRONG CAP AROUND 750MB. DESPITE THIS WARM LAYER
ALOFT...STRONG SFC HEATING IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ALL CINH BY MID-
AFTN AND MOST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE BREAKS OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION BY
20 UTC OR SO. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE STRONG CONVERGENCE
AND ENHANCE THE LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR AND ONE OF OUR MAIN CONCERNS IS
THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY PEAK HEATING.
AT THIS TIME...WE EXPECT IT TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM HAPPY...TO PLAINVIEW...TO FLOYDADA...TO DICKENS. STORMS IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO TAP
INTO THE LOW- LEVEL HELICITY AND MOIST INFLOW. COOLER AIR ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP LCLS AND THERE SHOULD BE A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF A TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MODEST...MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 300 J/KG SHOULD COMPENSATE AND
SUPPORT A COUPLE DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH THE AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS OUR PRIMARY
CONCERN...WE ALSO EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
ALL THE WAY TO THE NM BORDER AND THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BRING THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS.
GIVEN THE WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR
MORE STORMS ANCHORED TO THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CANYONS.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO A CLUSTER THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET KICKS IN AND SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL THREAT...FOCUSED ON THE ERN AND SRN ROLLING PLAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
AVIATION...
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EDGING THROUGH KCDS THOUGH NOT MUCH NOTICEABLE
WIND SHIFT. BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ABOUT 40 MILES OR SO NORTH OF
KLBB LATER TODAY BUT WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD SAG INTO BOTH TAF
SITES WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BETTER HANDLED IN SHORTER TERM
TAF UPDATE IF NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KCDS AND SOUTHEAST OF KLBB
WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT STILL SHOULD EASE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EDGED THE SURFACE DRY-LINE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...NOW OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE WESTWARD JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT
GENERATING AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TURNING OR HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED UNITS OR
GREATER WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS UPSTAIRS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR A TORNADIC THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR AS LARGE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE DRY-LINE ALTHOUGH TURNING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT LATER TODAY PROBABLY
WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...PRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL ALSO MORPH MORE
INTO HIGH WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO WILL OCCUR EARLY AS HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPER-CELLS MAY
DEVELOP...WHILE EXTENDING AS WELL INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PHASE
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG OUTFLOW EAST OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT. WE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR
THE DRY-LINE...AND ALSO DURING THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELDS.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
LINGERING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE DIVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE COLD POOL DOMINANT AT THIS POINT AND SUBSEQUENTLY FALL APART AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
POSITION NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE OR ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION DUE TO THE WESTERN PROXIMITY OF THE
DRYLINE. MAY SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE
PULLED BACK ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MIDWEEK.
DETAILS AS TO LEAD IMPULSES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY FAVORING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX
FARTHER EAST AND CONFINE STORM CHANCES MORESO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THOUGHT THIS WARRANTED
ADDING LOW END MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS...PUSHING THEM FARTHER EAST EACH DAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO ONGOING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DECREASED DIURNAL
RANGES SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 59 82 60 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
TULIA 88 61 83 62 82 / 60 50 50 30 20
PLAINVIEW 92 62 84 63 82 / 60 60 50 30 20
LEVELLAND 94 62 84 64 82 / 40 50 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 94 62 86 65 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
DENVER CITY 93 62 85 64 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 93 62 86 65 83 / 30 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 89 64 85 66 84 / 60 60 30 30 20
SPUR 94 64 87 66 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
ASPERMONT 95 67 87 67 84 / 20 60 30 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS64 KLUB 231243
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
743 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EDGING THROUGH KCDS THOUGH NOT MUCH NOTICEABLE
WIND SHIFT. BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL ABOUT 40 MILES OR SO NORTH OF
KLBB LATER TODAY BUT WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD SAG INTO BOTH TAF
SITES WITH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BETTER HANDLED IN SHORTER TERM
TAF UPDATE IF NECESSARY. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KCDS AND SOUTHEAST OF KLBB
WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY AT KLBB. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT STILL SHOULD EASE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EDGED THE SURFACE DRY-LINE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...NOW OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE WESTWARD JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT
GENERATING AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TURNING OR HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED UNITS OR
GREATER WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS UPSTAIRS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR A TORNADIC THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR AS LARGE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE DRY-LINE ALTHOUGH TURNING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT LATER TODAY PROBABLY
WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...PRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL ALSO MORPH MORE
INTO HIGH WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO WILL OCCUR EARLY AS HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPER-CELLS MAY
DEVELOP...WHILE EXTENDING AS WELL INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PHASE
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG OUTFLOW EAST OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT. WE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR
THE DRY-LINE...AND ALSO DURING THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELDS.
RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
LINGERING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE DIVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE COLD POOL DOMINANT AT THIS POINT AND SUBSEQUENTLY FALL APART AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
POSITION NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE OR ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION DUE TO THE WESTERN PROXIMITY OF THE
DRYLINE. MAY SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE
PULLED BACK ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MIDWEEK.
DETAILS AS TO LEAD IMPULSES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY FAVORING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX
FARTHER EAST AND CONFINE STORM CHANCES MORESO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THOUGHT THIS WARRANTED
ADDING LOW END MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS...PUSHING THEM FARTHER EAST EACH DAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO ONGOING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DECREASED DIURNAL
RANGES SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 59 82 60 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
TULIA 88 61 83 62 82 / 60 50 50 30 20
PLAINVIEW 92 62 84 63 82 / 60 60 50 30 20
LEVELLAND 94 62 84 64 82 / 40 50 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 94 62 86 65 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
DENVER CITY 93 62 85 64 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 93 62 86 65 83 / 30 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 89 64 85 66 84 / 60 60 30 30 20
SPUR 94 64 87 66 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
ASPERMONT 95 67 87 67 84 / 20 60 30 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
000
FXUS64 KLUB 230946
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
446 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE A THREAT FOR LATER TODAY AND REMAINS OUR PRIMARY FOCUS.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT STILL SHOULD EASE SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. TO THE
NORTHEAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOR THIS FRONT. GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS EDGED THE SURFACE DRY-LINE
SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS...NOW OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE WESTWARD JUST BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT
GENERATING AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
TURNING OR HELICITY WILL INCREASE TO SEVERAL HUNDRED UNITS OR
GREATER WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MODEST
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS UPSTAIRS. THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW
FOR A TORNADIC THREAT MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS PROBABLY WILL
REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR AS LARGE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE DRY-LINE ALTHOUGH TURNING WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL IN THIS AREA AS
WELL.
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE EVENT LATER TODAY PROBABLY
WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...PRESSING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL ALSO MORPH MORE
INTO HIGH WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE EVENING. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO WILL OCCUR EARLY AS HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPER-CELLS MAY
DEVELOP...WHILE EXTENDING AS WELL INTO THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM PHASE
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONG OUTFLOW EAST OR SOUTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT. WE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON IN SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY NEAR
THE DRY-LINE...AND ALSO DURING THE EVENING FROM CENTRAL AREAS TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELDS.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
LINGERING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS FOLLOWING SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MENTIONED ABOVE DIVES SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE COLD POOL DOMINANT AT THIS POINT AND SUBSEQUENTLY FALL APART AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL COMMENCE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
POSITION NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE OR ACROSS THE BORDER INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER WEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION DUE TO THE WESTERN PROXIMITY OF THE
DRYLINE. MAY SEE STORMS LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP AND GET CAUGHT UP IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE DRYLINE
PULLED BACK ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LOOKS TO FINALLY KICK OUT
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION BY MIDWEEK.
DETAILS AS TO LEAD IMPULSES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE DAY FAVORING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS MAY ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MIX
FARTHER EAST AND CONFINE STORM CHANCES MORESO TO THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THOUGHT THIS WARRANTED
ADDING LOW END MENTIONABLE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS...PUSHING THEM FARTHER EAST EACH DAY. DID NOT MAKE MANY
CHANGES TO ONGOING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DECREASED DIURNAL
RANGES SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 91 59 82 60 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
TULIA 88 61 83 62 82 / 60 50 50 30 20
PLAINVIEW 92 62 84 63 82 / 60 60 50 30 20
LEVELLAND 94 62 84 64 82 / 40 50 50 30 20
LUBBOCK 94 62 86 65 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
DENVER CITY 93 62 85 64 82 / 30 30 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD 93 62 86 65 83 / 30 50 50 30 20
CHILDRESS 89 64 85 66 84 / 60 60 30 30 20
SPUR 94 64 87 66 83 / 30 60 50 30 20
ASPERMONT 95 67 87 67 84 / 20 60 30 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/31
000
FXUS64 KLUB 230453
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1153 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
40+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ EXPANDING ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE UP ENOUGH AT KLBB TO KEEP LLWS AT BAY...BUT
LIGHTER AND BACKED WINDS AT KCDS ARE ENOUGH TO RAISE CONCERNS OF
LLWS THERE. THE LLJ WAS GRADUALLY CARRYING BETTER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND THERE IS SOME RISK OF MVFR CIGS AT KCDS TOWARD
MORNING...BUT CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE
JET TOWARD MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
NORTHEAST OF KCDS. INSTEAD...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AT/NEAR THE TERMINALS WILL BE AROUND MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THUS...WE CONTINUE TO INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THIS LIKELIHOOD. CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF ONE OF THESE STORMS DIRECTLY
IMPACTS A TERMINAL A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
.THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM...
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD FROM THE MS
VLY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LATTER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL
BE A CRUCIAL PLAYER IN OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW.
ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TX WAS
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE WAA REGIME WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET KICKS IN...DRAGGING MID 50S TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID
50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH-DEGREE OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL TO NW OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR
US BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE/ACCELERATE THE FRONT TO THE SW...AND HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DOES NOT PARTICULARLY HELP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTION. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO OUR NE ZONES AROUND MID-DAY...AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE FA IN MODEST...ALBEIT
INCREASING...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LVL
WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. ON THE CAPROCK...SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A DRYLINE IS
LIKELY TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE CAPPING
MAY INITIALLY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CINH GOING
TO ZERO BY AROUND 21 UTC. THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CI AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS BRISCOE...FLOYD COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SWISHER/HALE COUNTIES. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID CELL
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR SHOULD BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LOOK LIKE A STRONG BET TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...FCST 0-1 KM EHI VALUES > 2 NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. LCL/S WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE AROUND 0 UTC. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THEN STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE A SMALL RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE
WINDOW OF TORNADIC THREAT FAIRLY SHORT.
FORECAST PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE IN THE EVENING AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH NEAR THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM...
A PROTRACTED ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIES AHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FINAL WEEK OF
MAY AS SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
MOST OF WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD ENSURE MINIMAL EASTERLY DRYLINE MIXING
EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY FOR A
LONG TIME! BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...OPTED TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE IN ANTICIPATION OF MILDER NIGHTS AND NOT-AS-HOT
AFTERNOONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWEST /LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ AND RECEIVES SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LIFT FROM AN INTENSIFYING SELY LLJ. COUPLING OF THIS LLJ WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD ONLY BOLSTER DEEP ASCENT SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT. PROVIDED THIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST OR DRY ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND
EVENT. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE ON THE RISE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PROPAGATION/REDEVELOPMENT INTO A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAIN TOTALS IN SOME LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. RECENT SURVEY BY OUR
REGIONAL HYDROLOGIST SHOWED MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FUELS IN SOME
AREAS FAVORED TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...SO THIS
WOULD ONLY AMPLIFY RUNOFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PLAUSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THIS MCS GIVEN A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ DIRECTED OVER THE CWA.
HISTORY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS OR ECMWF CAMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...THEN
ROUND TWO OF TSTRMS SHOULD BE IN STORE FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST EXPOSING THE SOUTH PLAINS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS FLOW REGIME CAMPS OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO
HAVE ENDED MENTION OF ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTORMS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY INEVITABLY BE EXTENDED IN FURTHER IN
TIME IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUFFICIENT MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 89 59 82 60 / 10 20 30 40 20
TULIA 61 89 62 83 62 / 10 40 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 62 90 64 84 63 / 10 30 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 64 92 64 84 64 / 0 20 40 40 20
LUBBOCK 66 93 66 86 65 / 0 20 50 40 30
DENVER CITY 63 92 65 85 64 / 0 20 30 50 20
BROWNFIELD 66 93 65 86 65 / 0 20 40 40 30
CHILDRESS 62 88 65 85 66 / 10 60 60 30 20
SPUR 67 92 67 87 66 / 10 30 60 40 30
ASPERMONT 71 95 69 87 67 / 10 20 60 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07/23
000
FXUS64 KLUB 230001
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
701 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
A 45+ KT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO STAY UP ENOUGH AT KLBB TO KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE
TAF...BUT SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LATE
TONIGHT AT KCDS AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE INSERTED LLWS THERE. THIS
LLJ WILL CARRY IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KCDS THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION EXPLICITLY IN THE TAF. INSTEAD...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HENCE...HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS
RESULTING IN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
..THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM...
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD FROM THE MS
VLY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LATTER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL
BE A CRUCIAL PLAYER IN OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW.
ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TX WAS
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE WAA REGIME WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET KICKS IN...DRAGGING MID 50S TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID
50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH-DEGREE OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL TO NW OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR
US BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE/ACCELERATE THE FRONT TO THE SW...AND HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DOES NOT PARTICULARLY HELP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTION. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO OUR NE ZONES AROUND MID-DAY...AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE FA IN MODEST...ALBEIT
INCREASING...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LVL
WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. ON THE CAPROCK...SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A DRYLINE IS
LIKELY TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE CAPPING
MAY INITIALLY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CINH GOING
TO ZERO BY AROUND 21 UTC. THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CI AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS BRISCOE...FLOYD COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SWISHER/HALE COUNTIES. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID CELL
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR SHOULD BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LOOK LIKE A STRONG BET TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...FCST 0-1 KM EHI VALUES > 2 NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. LCL/S WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE AROUND 0 UTC. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THEN STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE A SMALL RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE
WINDOW OF TORNADIC THREAT FAIRLY SHORT.
FORECAST PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE IN THE EVENING AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH NEAR THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM...
A PROTRACTED ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIES AHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FINAL WEEK OF
MAY AS SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
MOST OF WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD ENSURE MINIMAL EASTERLY DRYLINE MIXING
EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY FOR A
LONG TIME! BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...OPTED TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE IN ANTICIPATION OF MILDER NIGHTS AND NOT-AS-HOT
AFTERNOONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWEST /LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ AND RECEIVES SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LIFT FROM AN INTENSIFYING SELY LLJ. COUPLING OF THIS LLJ WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD ONLY BOLSTER DEEP ASCENT SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT. PROVIDED THIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST OR DRY ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND
EVENT. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE ON THE RISE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PROPAGATION/REDEVELOPMENT INTO A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAIN TOTALS IN SOME LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. RECENT SURVEY BY OUR
REGIONAL HYDROLOGIST SHOWED MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FUELS IN SOME
AREAS FAVORED TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...SO THIS
WOULD ONLY AMPLIFY RUNOFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PLAUSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THIS MCS GIVEN A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ DIRECTED OVER THE CWA.
HISTORY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS OR ECMWF CAMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...THEN
ROUND TWO OF TSTRMS SHOULD BE IN STORE FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST EXPOSING THE SOUTH PLAINS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS FLOW REGIME CAMPS OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO
HAVE ENDED MENTION OF ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTORMS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY INEVITABLY BE EXTENDED IN FURTHER IN
TIME IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUFFICIENT MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 89 59 82 60 / 10 20 30 40 20
TULIA 61 89 62 83 62 / 10 40 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 62 90 64 84 63 / 10 30 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 64 92 64 84 64 / 0 20 40 40 20
LUBBOCK 66 93 66 86 65 / 0 20 50 40 30
DENVER CITY 63 92 65 85 64 / 0 20 30 50 20
BROWNFIELD 66 93 65 86 65 / 0 20 40 40 30
CHILDRESS 62 88 65 85 66 / 10 60 60 30 20
SPUR 67 92 67 87 66 / 10 30 60 40 30
ASPERMONT 71 95 69 87 67 / 10 20 60 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07/23
000
FXUS64 KLUB 222100
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...
...THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS IN THE SHORT-TERM...
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE APPROACHING WEST TEXAS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS NEWD FROM THE MS
VLY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE LATTER TROUGH HAS DRIVEN A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT WILL
BE A CRUCIAL PLAYER IN OUR CONVECTIVE CHANCES TOMORROW.
ALSO AT THE SURFACE...AN STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH TX WAS
BEGINNING TO WASH OUT/LIFT NORTH WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND MOIST
ADVECTION NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE. THE WAA REGIME WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET KICKS IN...DRAGGING MID 50S TO
MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID
50S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.
INTERESTINGLY...THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH-DEGREE OF
SPREAD REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING ELEVATED
CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/WARM
FRONT INTERSECTION IN CENTRAL TO NW OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR
US BECAUSE THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE/ACCELERATE THE FRONT TO THE SW...AND HELP DETERMINE WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...THE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DOES NOT PARTICULARLY HELP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF INITIAL CONVECTION. IN GENERAL THOUGH...WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO OUR NE ZONES AROUND MID-DAY...AND PROGRESS
WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE FA IN MODEST...ALBEIT
INCREASING...UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LVL
WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT. ON THE CAPROCK...SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A DRYLINE IS
LIKELY TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. WHILE CAPPING
MAY INITIALLY BE A CONCERN EAST OF THE FRONT AND DRYLINE...FCST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARIES SHOULD CINH GOING
TO ZERO BY AROUND 21 UTC. THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION WILL BE THE
PREFERRED AREA FOR CI AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS BRISCOE...FLOYD COUNTIES AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS SWISHER/HALE COUNTIES. FORECAST MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000 TO 3000 J/KG IN THIS AREA SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID CELL
INTENSIFICATION. SHEAR SHOULD BE AUGMENTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LOOK LIKE A STRONG BET TO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...FCST 0-1 KM EHI VALUES > 2 NEAR THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL. LCL/S WILL INITIALLY BE
SOMEWHAT HIGH BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE AROUND 0 UTC. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THEN STORMS WILL ONLY
HAVE A SMALL RESIDENCE TIME ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL KEEP THE
WINDOW OF TORNADIC THREAT FAIRLY SHORT.
FORECAST PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...THEN PERHAPS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE IN THE EVENING AS
DISCUSSED BELOW.
MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE WEST...MORE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH NEAR THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
&&
.LONG TERM...
A PROTRACTED ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIES AHEAD THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FINAL WEEK OF
MAY AS SEASONABLY RICH GULF MOISTURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
MOST OF WEST TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD ENSURE MINIMAL EASTERLY DRYLINE MIXING
EACH AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL OPEN THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE ENTIRE CWA...SOMETHING WE HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO SAY FOR A
LONG TIME! BECAUSE OF SUSTAINED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...OPTED TO
RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND NARROW THE DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE IN ANTICIPATION OF MILDER NIGHTS AND NOT-AS-HOT
AFTERNOONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EDGES SOUTHWEST /LIKELY
AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS/ AND RECEIVES SOME CONTRIBUTION OF
LIFT FROM AN INTENSIFYING SELY LLJ. COUPLING OF THIS LLJ WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SHOULD ONLY BOLSTER DEEP ASCENT SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS TSTORMS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF
AN MCS IF MODELS ARE CORRECT. PROVIDED THIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND TO WANE AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ROBUST OR DRY ENOUGH FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WIND
EVENT. HOWEVER...CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE ON THE RISE GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
UNSEASONABLY RICH PWATS AOA 1.5 INCHES. ADD TO THIS FAVORABLE CORFIDI
VECTORS SUPPORTIVE OF STORM PROPAGATION/REDEVELOPMENT INTO A LOW-
LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND THE STAGE COULD BE SET FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE
RAIN TOTALS IN SOME LOCALES OFF THE CAPROCK. RECENT SURVEY BY OUR
REGIONAL HYDROLOGIST SHOWED MINIMAL COVERAGE OF FUELS IN SOME
AREAS FAVORED TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS TOMORROW NIGHT...SO THIS
WOULD ONLY AMPLIFY RUNOFF AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
ISO-SCT STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS PLAUSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND
THIS MCS GIVEN A PERSISTENT SELY LLJ DIRECTED OVER THE CWA.
HISTORY WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND NOT LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWN BY THE GFS OR ECMWF CAMPS. IF THIS IS CORRECT...THEN
ROUND TWO OF TSTRMS SHOULD BE IN STORE FRI AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FARTHER EAST EXPOSING THE SOUTH PLAINS TO A MORE
UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW. IN A NUTSHELL...THIS FLOW REGIME CAMPS OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SRN
ROCKIES BY MIDWEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE...SO
HAVE ENDED MENTION OF ISOLATED DRYLINE TSTORMS BEGINNING
TUESDAY...THOUGH THIS MAY INEVITABLY BE EXTENDED IN FURTHER IN
TIME IN LATER FORECASTS IF SUFFICIENT MODEL CONTINUITY EXISTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 54 89 59 82 60 / 10 20 30 40 20
TULIA 61 89 62 83 62 / 10 40 50 40 20
PLAINVIEW 62 90 64 84 63 / 10 30 50 40 20
LEVELLAND 64 92 64 84 64 / 0 20 40 40 20
LUBBOCK 66 93 66 86 65 / 0 20 50 40 30
DENVER CITY 63 92 65 85 64 / 0 20 30 50 20
BROWNFIELD 66 93 65 86 65 / 0 20 40 40 30
CHILDRESS 62 88 65 85 66 / 10 60 60 30 20
SPUR 67 92 67 87 66 / 10 30 60 40 30
ASPERMONT 71 95 69 87 67 / 10 20 60 30 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/93
000
FXUS64 KLUB 221750
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY S-SE
SURFACE WINDS. THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 40 KTS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND PREVENT
LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAF. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS AROUND THE 10 UTC TO
15 UTC TIME FRAME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...MODERATE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PULLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREECH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL RESISTANCE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST RECENT WRF/NAM SOLUTION HAS COME MUCH MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS BUILDING A SUBSIDENCE CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN ABOUT 500 MB AND 600 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AS THE WAVE PULLS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A 55KT
JET MAXIMUM AT H300 MB ACROSS THE AREA...A LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WILL
START TO DEVELOP ASSISTING IN PULLING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARDS MORE CAPPING WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNALS OF A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD ARE STILL APPARENT VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. STILL...THIS MAY LEAD TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR AN INCREASE IN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OWING TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LOW LEVEL
JET USHERING RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX EAST SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK DURING PEAK HEATING. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CREATING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELICITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERFACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOOKS TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
TIMING OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS COUPLING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL RECEIVE A
BOOST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND LENGTHENS ALREADY CURVED HODOGRAPHS.
BELIEVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
BACKDOOR FRONT MEET BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT AND RETREATING DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THREATS AREAWIDE...WHILE
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST BASED ON WHERE
HELICITY/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE ENHANCED DUE TO BACKED WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
RANGE WILL ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING FRIDAY BY ENTERING NEW MEXICO
THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND LEE
TROUGHING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DRYLINE PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
THE DRYLINE TO BEGIN MIXING FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTH/ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL DICTATE STORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 57 86 59 82 / 0 10 20 30 30
TULIA 88 59 86 62 83 / 0 10 40 40 20
PLAINVIEW 89 61 87 64 84 / 0 10 30 40 20
LEVELLAND 90 63 89 64 84 / 0 10 20 30 20
LUBBOCK 90 65 90 66 86 / 0 10 20 40 20
DENVER CITY 90 64 93 65 85 / 0 10 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 92 65 90 65 86 / 0 10 20 30 20
CHILDRESS 91 63 88 65 85 / 10 10 60 60 20
SPUR 91 63 90 67 88 / 10 10 30 50 20
ASPERMONT 93 67 92 69 91 / 10 10 20 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS64 KLUB 221144
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...MODERATE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PULLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREECH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL RESISTANCE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST RECENT WRF/NAM SOLUTION HAS COME MUCH MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS BUILDING A SUBSIDENCE CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN ABOUT 500 MB AND 600 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AS THE WAVE PULLS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A 55KT
JET MAXIMUM AT H300 MB ACROSS THE AREA...A LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WILL
START TO DEVELOP ASSISTING IN PULLING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARDS MORE CAPPING WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNALS OF A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD ARE STILL APPARENT VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. STILL...THIS MAY LEAD TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR AN INCREASE IN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OWING TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LOW LEVEL
JET USHERING RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX EAST SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK DURING PEAK HEATING. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CREATING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELICITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERFACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOOKS TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
TIMING OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS COUPLING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL RECEIVE A
BOOST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND LENGTHENS ALREADY CURVED HODOGRAPHS.
BELIEVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
BACKDOOR FRONT MEET BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT AND RETREATING DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THREATS AREAWIDE...WHILE
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST BASED ON WHERE
HELICITY/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE ENHANCED DUE TO BACKED WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
RANGE WILL ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING FRIDAY BY ENTERING NEW MEXICO
THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND LEE
TROUGHING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DRYLINE PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
THE DRYLINE TO BEGIN MIXING FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTH/ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL DICTATE STORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 57 86 59 82 / 0 10 20 30 30
TULIA 88 59 86 62 83 / 0 10 40 40 20
PLAINVIEW 89 61 87 64 84 / 0 10 30 40 20
LEVELLAND 90 63 89 64 84 / 0 10 20 30 20
LUBBOCK 90 65 90 66 86 / 0 10 20 40 20
DENVER CITY 90 64 93 65 85 / 0 10 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 92 65 90 65 86 / 0 10 20 30 20
CHILDRESS 91 63 88 65 85 / 10 10 60 60 20
SPUR 91 63 90 67 88 / 10 10 30 50 20
ASPERMONT 93 67 92 69 91 / 10 10 20 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
000
FXUS64 KLUB 220954
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
453 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PULLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WAVE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BREECH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIAL RESISTANCE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST RECENT WRF/NAM SOLUTION HAS COME MUCH MORE
INTO LINE WITH THE GFS BUILDING A SUBSIDENCE CAPPING INVERSION
BETWEEN ABOUT 500 MB AND 600 MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. AS THE WAVE PULLS THROUGH DURING THE EVENING WITH A 55KT
JET MAXIMUM AT H300 MB ACROSS THE AREA...A LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WILL
START TO DEVELOP ASSISTING IN PULLING MUCH BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREND
TOWARDS MORE CAPPING WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNALS OF A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA SOUTHEASTWARD ARE STILL APPARENT VERY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH
REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. STILL...THIS MAY LEAD TO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR AN INCREASE IN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WESTWARD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. LITTLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS WELL. RMCQUEEN
&&
.LONG TERM...
PROSPECTS CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MID TO UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE HEART OF THE
COUNTRY...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OWING TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S LOW LEVEL
JET USHERING RICHER GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX EAST SOMEWHERE IN VICINITY OF THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK DURING PEAK HEATING. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CREATING INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELICITY
ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERFACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOOKS TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE
TIMING OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...PERHAPS COUPLING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL RECEIVE A
BOOST HEADING INTO THE EVENING AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS AND LENGTHENS ALREADY CURVED HODOGRAPHS.
BELIEVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE AND
BACKDOOR FRONT MEET BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT AND RETREATING DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THREATS AREAWIDE...WHILE
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST BASED ON WHERE
HELICITY/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ARE ENHANCED DUE TO BACKED WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
RANGE WILL ALSO PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING FRIDAY BY ENTERING NEW MEXICO
THANKS TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND LEE
TROUGHING NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES IN
TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DRYLINE PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR INITIATION. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO MIGRATE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
THE DRYLINE TO BEGIN MIXING FARTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTH/ROLLING
PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS PROGRESSION OF
THIS SYSTEM AND DRYLINE PLACEMENT WILL DICTATE STORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 87 57 86 59 82 / 0 10 20 30 30
TULIA 88 59 86 62 83 / 0 10 40 40 20
PLAINVIEW 89 61 87 64 84 / 0 10 30 40 20
LEVELLAND 90 63 89 64 84 / 0 10 20 30 20
LUBBOCK 90 64 89 66 86 / 0 10 20 40 20
DENVER CITY 90 64 93 65 85 / 0 10 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 92 65 90 65 86 / 0 10 20 30 20
CHILDRESS 91 63 88 65 85 / 10 10 60 60 20
SPUR 91 63 90 67 88 / 10 10 30 50 20
ASPERMONT 93 67 92 69 91 / 10 10 20 40 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/31
000
FXUS64 KLUB 220427
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD SKIRT TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KCDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. PSEUDO-
DRYLINE TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE-27 WITH POSSIBILTY
OF ISOLATED TS DEVELOPING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN EAST OF KLBB AND
SOUTH OF KCDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KTS BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT ULJ ON THE SRN FLANK
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS MAINTAINING
SOME MODEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
THIS MID-AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS VERY MEAGER...SBCAPES UNDER 200
J/KG...SO WE BARELY EXPECT THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A
MID-LVL COLD POCKET ROTATING SWD AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
IS INCREASING MID-LVL INSTABILITY ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN
PANHANDLES WITH SBCAPES ANALYZED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL
PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS A
RESULT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SEWD TOWARD MAINLY OUR NRN ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE
ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. AN ISOLD STRONG STORM WITH
SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE AROUND SUNSET. SFC RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...A
RETURN TO SRLY WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS...RIGHT AROUND 90F EXPECTED FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO GENERATE SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CAPPED WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
LONG TERM...
INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL TREND MORE BLOCKY LATER
THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE RIDGING EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE OIL SANDS OF FORT
MCMURRAY, ALBERTA. FORTUNATELY...THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS WILL
FALL UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET RESIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION OF
STRONG HEIGHT RISES. THIS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SUBJECTING THE CWA TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A SEMI-STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
UPSHOT OF THIS IS AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR DOMAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY BEFORE THE MEAN DRYLINE BECOMES SITUATED WEST
OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN THEREAFTER...ULTIMATELY GIVING OUR FRIENDS
IN OKLAHOMA A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THEIR RECENT RASH OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THIS THURSDAY AND
CONCERNS THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE THE
500MB RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...THIS AREA IS
UNDER A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TX WILL BE
CHANNELED WEST-NORTHWEST WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
RICH PWATS BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND CRUCIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE
KEPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT ON TRACK WITH EARLIER FORECASTS FAVORING
STRONG LL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR N-NERN COUNTIES BY PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTHING SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVE CRITICAL FOR A TORNADIC THREAT AS 0-3KM HELICITIES NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY ARE SHOWN TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE THURSDAY FOR THE NERN QUARTER
OF OUR CWA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG CAPE AND PWATS AOA ONE
INCH APPEAR LIKELY.
THEREAFTER...GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITHIN SUSTAINED S-SELY 850MB FLOW. DAILY DRYLINE POSITION THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS THE NM STATE LINE AREA WITH
PERHAPS DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ENDED MENTION
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS IS OVER FIVE DAYS OUT. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER FLOW DOES MAINTAIN A FAVORABLY UNSETTLED SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW THAT COULD CERTAINLY WARRANT DAILY DRYLINE STORMS. BARRING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD WITHIN 5 DEGS OR SO OF
SEASONABLE AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 87 57 87 58 / 10 0 10 20 30
TULIA 53 88 59 87 61 / 10 0 10 30 30
PLAINVIEW 53 88 61 88 63 / 10 0 10 30 40
LEVELLAND 53 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 55 90 64 90 65 / 10 0 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 54 90 64 94 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 54 92 65 91 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 55 90 63 89 64 / 10 10 10 50 50
SPUR 55 90 63 91 66 / 0 10 10 20 40
ASPERMONT 58 93 67 93 68 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 212307
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KTS BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT ULJ ON THE SRN FLANK
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS MAINTAINING
SOME MODEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
THIS MID-AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS VERY MEAGER...SBCAPES UNDER 200
J/KG...SO WE BARELY EXPECT THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A
MID-LVL COLD POCKET ROTATING SWD AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
IS INCREASING MID-LVL INSTABILITY ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN
PANHANDLES WITH SBCAPES ANALYZED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL
PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS A
RESULT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SEWD TOWARD MAINLY OUR NRN ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE
ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. AN ISOLD STRONG STORM WITH
SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE AROUND SUNSET. SFC RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...A
RETURN TO SRLY WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS...RIGHT AROUND 90F EXPECTED FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO GENERATE SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CAPPED WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
LONG TERM...
INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL TREND MORE BLOCKY LATER
THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE RIDGING EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE OIL SANDS OF FORT
MCMURRAY, ALBERTA. FORTUNATELY...THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS WILL
FALL UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET RESIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION OF
STRONG HEIGHT RISES. THIS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SUBJECTING THE CWA TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A SEMI-STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
UPSHOT OF THIS IS AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR DOMAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY BEFORE THE MEAN DRYLINE BECOMES SITUATED WEST
OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN THEREAFTER...ULTIMATELY GIVING OUR FRIENDS
IN OKLAHOMA A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THEIR RECENT RASH OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THIS THURSDAY AND
CONCERNS THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE THE
500MB RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...THIS AREA IS
UNDER A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TX WILL BE
CHANNELED WEST-NORTHWEST WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
RICH PWATS BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND CRUCIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE
KEPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT ON TRACK WITH EARLIER FORECASTS FAVORING
STRONG LL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR N-NERN COUNTIES BY PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTHING SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVE CRITICAL FOR A TORNADIC THREAT AS 0-3KM HELICITIES NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY ARE SHOWN TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE THURSDAY FOR THE NERN QUARTER
OF OUR CWA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG CAPE AND PWATS AOA ONE
INCH APPEAR LIKELY.
THEREAFTER...GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITHIN SUSTAINED S-SELY 850MB FLOW. DAILY DRYLINE POSITION THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS THE NM STATE LINE AREA WITH
PERHAPS DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ENDED MENTION
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS IS OVER FIVE DAYS OUT. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER FLOW DOES MAINTAIN A FAVORABLY UNSETTLED SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW THAT COULD CERTAINLY WARRANT DAILY DRYLINE STORMS. BARRING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD WITHIN 5 DEGS OR SO OF
SEASONABLE AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 87 57 87 58 / 10 0 10 20 30
TULIA 53 88 59 87 61 / 10 0 10 30 30
PLAINVIEW 53 88 61 88 63 / 10 0 10 30 40
LEVELLAND 53 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 55 90 64 90 65 / 10 0 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 54 90 64 94 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 54 92 65 91 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 55 90 63 89 64 / 10 10 10 50 50
SPUR 55 90 63 91 66 / 0 10 10 20 40
ASPERMONT 58 93 67 93 68 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KLUB 212104
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 60-70 KT ULJ ON THE SRN FLANK
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS MAINTAINING
SOME MODEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS
THIS MID-AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS VERY MEAGER...SBCAPES UNDER 200
J/KG...SO WE BARELY EXPECT THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A
MID-LVL COLD POCKET ROTATING SWD AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE TROUGH
IS INCREASING MID-LVL INSTABILITY ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN
PANHANDLES WITH SBCAPES ANALYZED TO AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS AREA WILL
PROGRESS SEWD TOWARD THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AS A
RESULT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SEWD TOWARD MAINLY OUR NRN ZONES. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THE
ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. AN ISOLD STRONG STORM WITH
SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE AROUND SUNSET. SFC RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...A
RETURN TO SRLY WINDS AND AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS...RIGHT AROUND 90F EXPECTED FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO GENERATE SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CAPPED WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL TREND MORE BLOCKY LATER
THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO LONGWAVE RIDGING EMERGING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ALL THE WAY NORTH TO THE OIL SANDS OF FORT
MCMURRAY, ALBERTA. FORTUNATELY...THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TEXAS WILL
FALL UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL JET RESIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION OF
STRONG HEIGHT RISES. THIS RIDGE WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SUBJECTING THE CWA TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A SEMI-STATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
UPSHOT OF THIS IS AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR OUR DOMAIN
BEGINNING THURSDAY BEFORE THE MEAN DRYLINE BECOMES SITUATED WEST
OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN THEREAFTER...ULTIMATELY GIVING OUR FRIENDS
IN OKLAHOMA A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THEIR RECENT RASH OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THIS THURSDAY AND
CONCERNS THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE CONVECTION. DESPITE THE
500MB RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...THIS AREA IS
UNDER A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
BE OVER THE REGION. AMPLE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TX WILL BE
CHANNELED WEST-NORTHWEST WED AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
RICH PWATS BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND CRUCIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BACKDOOR SLOWLY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. HAVE
KEPT TIMING OF THIS FRONT ON TRACK WITH EARLIER FORECASTS FAVORING
STRONG LL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR N-NERN COUNTIES BY PEAK HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTHING SHORT OF IMPRESSIVE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
PROVE CRITICAL FOR A TORNADIC THREAT AS 0-3KM HELICITIES NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY ARE SHOWN TO REACH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. DID ADD SEVERE
MENTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE THURSDAY FOR THE NERN QUARTER
OF OUR CWA NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WHERE STRONG CAPE AND PWATS AOA ONE
INCH APPEAR LIKELY.
THEREAFTER...GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITHIN SUSTAINED S-SELY 850MB FLOW. DAILY DRYLINE POSITION THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FAVORS THE NM STATE LINE AREA WITH
PERHAPS DAILY CHANCES FOR TSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ENDED MENTION
AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS IS OVER FIVE DAYS OUT. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER FLOW DOES MAINTAIN A FAVORABLY UNSETTLED SWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW THAT COULD CERTAINLY WARRANT DAILY DRYLINE STORMS. BARRING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD WITHIN 5 DEGS OR SO OF
SEASONABLE AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 87 57 87 58 / 10 0 10 20 30
TULIA 53 88 59 87 61 / 10 0 10 30 30
PLAINVIEW 53 88 61 88 63 / 10 0 10 30 40
LEVELLAND 53 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 10 20 30
LUBBOCK 55 90 64 90 65 / 10 0 10 20 40
DENVER CITY 54 90 64 94 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
BROWNFIELD 54 92 65 91 64 / 0 0 10 20 20
CHILDRESS 55 90 63 89 64 / 10 10 10 50 50
SPUR 55 90 63 91 66 / 0 10 10 20 40
ASPERMONT 58 93 67 93 68 / 10 10 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33/93
000
FXUS64 KLUB 211824
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
124 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY EVENING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT FOG EARLY
WED MORNING AT EITHER TERMINAL...BUT WE PULLED MENTION AT KCDS
DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. SRLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON WED
MORNING...INCREASING BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN CONVECTIVE TREND AHEAD
OF SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE BUT SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE EXISTS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR
TSTMS TO AFFECT KLBB /FM 12-15Z/ AND CDS /13-16Z/ THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO INSERT IN TAF ATTM. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES. FINALLY...BR/FG
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE COUNTRY/S SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE THE MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME HIGH BASED RADAR ECHOES TO
OUR NORTH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AROUND MID
DAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
CANADA. THIS WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN. AS MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACARS PLOTS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A STRENGTHENING
TREND AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH TIME. THIS IN TURN HAS ALREADY DRIVEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN LIFT REGION AROUND SUNRISE. THE
REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NEARLY STATION MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX ACROSS WESTERN QUAY COUNTY NM WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE
VICINITY. AS THIS BEGINS TO KICK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. AT PRESENT NLDN DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO AN OUTAGE
AND NO SFERIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE TTU LMA. IF IT CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED...WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MITIGATE THE
DOWNBURST THREAT. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS A LEAD IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...DESPITE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS...IT WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL TODAY AS
COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK.
LONG TERM...
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION WITH UPPER
LOWS LOCATED ACROSS EITHER COAST. AFTER DEEP MIXING BEHIND A ROLLING
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY DESTINED DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE BACKS THE DRYLINE
UP IN VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS USHERING
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
CREST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING RIDGE. THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PRESENT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BEST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS AREA. CAPPING WILL
ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL
COOLING INCREASES INSTABILITY ATOP A WARMING AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER. STORM CHANCES WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND CLOUD BASES BECOME ELEVATED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE DRYLINE STAYS PULLED BACK INTO NEW MEXICO OWING TO LEE TROUGHING
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. A STRENGTHENING EML MAY
PRECLUDE STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TO RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE.
QUESTIONS ARISE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TO WHEN
THE DRYLINE WILL START MIXING FARTHER EAST AGAIN AS TROUGHING
ENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO SLIDE THE RIDGE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 51 88 57 87 / 40 0 0 10 20
TULIA 79 52 90 59 87 / 50 0 0 10 30
PLAINVIEW 80 54 90 61 88 / 40 0 0 10 30
LEVELLAND 81 56 90 63 90 / 10 0 0 10 20
LUBBOCK 80 56 91 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 81 57 90 64 94 / 10 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 80 57 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 20
CHILDRESS 78 56 92 63 89 / 40 10 10 20 30
SPUR 77 59 93 63 91 / 10 0 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 76 60 95 67 93 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS64 KLUB 211138
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH GIVEN CONVECTIVE TREND AHEAD
OF SMALL BUT INTENSE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE BUT SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THERE EXISTS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR
TSTMS TO AFFECT KLBB /FM 12-15Z/ AND CDS /13-16Z/ THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO INSERT IN TAF ATTM. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES. FINALLY...BR/FG
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE COUNTRY/S SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE THE MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME HIGH BASED RADAR ECHOES TO
OUR NORTH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AROUND MID
DAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
CANADA. THIS WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN. AS MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACARS PLOTS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A STRENGTHENING
TREND AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH TIME. THIS IN TURN HAS ALREADY DRIVEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN LIFT REGION AROUND SUNRISE. THE
REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NEARLY STATION MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX ACROSS WESTERN QUAY COUNTY NM WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE
VICINITY. AS THIS BEGINS TO KICK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. AT PRESENT NLDN DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO AN OUTAGE
AND NO SFERIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE TTU LMA. IF IT CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED...WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MITIGATE THE
DOWNBURST THREAT. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS A LEAD IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...DESPITE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS...IT WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL TODAY AS
COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK.
LONG TERM...
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION WITH UPPER
LOWS LOCATED ACROSS EITHER COAST. AFTER DEEP MIXING BEHIND A ROLLING
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY DESTINED DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE BACKS THE DRYLINE
UP IN VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS USHERING
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
CREST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING RIDGE. THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PRESENT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BEST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS AREA. CAPPING WILL
ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL
COOLING INCREASES INSTABILITY ATOP A WARMING AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER. STORM CHANCES WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND CLOUD BASES BECOME ELEVATED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE DRYLINE STAYS PULLED BACK INTO NEW MEXICO OWING TO LEE TROUGHING
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. A STRENGTHENING EML MAY
PRECLUDE STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TO RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE.
QUESTIONS ARISE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TO WHEN
THE DRYLINE WILL START MIXING FARTHER EAST AGAIN AS TROUGHING
ENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO SLIDE THE RIDGE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 51 88 57 87 / 50 0 0 10 20
TULIA 79 52 90 59 87 / 40 0 0 10 30
PLAINVIEW 80 54 90 61 88 / 40 0 0 10 30
LEVELLAND 81 56 90 63 90 / 20 0 0 10 20
LUBBOCK 80 56 91 64 90 / 20 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 81 57 90 64 94 / 10 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 80 57 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 20
CHILDRESS 78 56 92 63 89 / 20 10 10 20 30
SPUR 77 59 93 63 91 / 10 0 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 76 60 95 67 93 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
000
FXUS64 KLUB 210945
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
445 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE COUNTRY/S SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE THE MATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME HIGH BASED RADAR ECHOES TO
OUR NORTH. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEST TEXAS AROUND MID
DAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
CANADA. THIS WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS YET ANOTHER STRONG LOW COMES ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS MAKES ITS
ATTEMPT TO DEEPEN. AS MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACARS PLOTS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH...ALL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A STRENGTHENING
TREND AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
WITH TIME. THIS IN TURN HAS ALREADY DRIVEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWFA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE AREA WITHIN LIFT REGION AROUND SUNRISE. THE
REAL QUESTION WILL BE IF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NEARLY STATION MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX ACROSS WESTERN QUAY COUNTY NM WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE
VICINITY. AS THIS BEGINS TO KICK OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION. AT PRESENT NLDN DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO AN OUTAGE
AND NO SFERIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE TTU LMA. IF IT CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED...WOULD EXPECT ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
THE COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MITIGATE THE
DOWNBURST THREAT. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS A LEAD IMPULSE OVERSPREADS REGION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...DESPITE SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS...IT WILL BE REFRESHINGLY COOL TODAY AS
COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM...
BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NATION/S MIDSECTION WITH UPPER
LOWS LOCATED ACROSS EITHER COAST. AFTER DEEP MIXING BEHIND A ROLLING
PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY DESTINED DRYLINE WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AS AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE BACKS THE DRYLINE
UP IN VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
BEGINNING THURSDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS USHERING
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE
CREST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING RIDGE. THURSDAY APPEARS TO
PRESENT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE DRYLINE
LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BEST AREA
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS AREA. CAPPING WILL
ERODE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL
COOLING INCREASES INSTABILITY ATOP A WARMING AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER. STORM CHANCES WILL LAST INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND CLOUD BASES BECOME ELEVATED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL MOVE WESTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE DRYLINE STAYS PULLED BACK INTO NEW MEXICO OWING TO LEE TROUGHING
INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. A STRENGTHENING EML MAY
PRECLUDE STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND...FOCUSING DEVELOPMENT TO RIGHT ALONG THE DRYLINE.
QUESTIONS ARISE HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TO WHEN
THE DRYLINE WILL START MIXING FARTHER EAST AGAIN AS TROUGHING
ENTERING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINS TO SLIDE THE RIDGE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 80 51 88 57 87 / 20 0 0 10 20
TULIA 79 52 90 59 87 / 20 0 0 10 30
PLAINVIEW 80 54 90 61 88 / 20 0 0 10 30
LEVELLAND 81 56 90 63 90 / 10 0 0 10 20
LUBBOCK 80 56 91 64 90 / 10 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 81 57 90 64 94 / 10 0 0 10 20
BROWNFIELD 80 57 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 10 20
CHILDRESS 78 56 92 63 89 / 10 10 10 20 30
SPUR 77 59 93 63 91 / 10 0 10 10 30
ASPERMONT 76 60 95 67 93 / 10 10 10 10 30
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/31
| 
