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000
FXUS64 KLUB 192014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A RATHER
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT AGL
ADVECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH THE
WINDS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...WITH
THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST TEXAS. THE NAM DOES INDICATE SOME
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ITS TOUGH TO
EVALUATE HOW MUCH THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SHOULD REALIZE EXCELLENT COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
THINK THE TRADITIONAL COOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH OR SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.
THESE LOCATIONS WERE BELOW FREEZING A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO AND
SINCE WE ARE RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THIS
AREA...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS. FAVORED COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. BLENDED MOS/MODEL HIGHS
AROUND 70 AREA WIDE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. JW

.LONG TERM...
STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF
GENERALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS REMAINS ONE OF THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEEK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY AND FAST SW FLOW LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM BAJA PAST THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.

FIRST SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE AS MAY SEE CONVECTION FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NRN NM AND SRN COLO WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. EACH RUN HAS LOOKED LESS LIKELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE 12Z RUN IS NO DIFFERENT. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT
PULL THEM A BIT FURTHERTO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CHANCE FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WEAKLY-FORCED NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
THE CAP HOLDING LEAD TO KEEPING 20-30 PCT POPS. CHANCES EXIST
AREAWIDE TUESDAY BUT THEN SHIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
COMES CLOSER. BEST CHANCE DURING THE WEEK MAY BE THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM BAJA...ALTHOUGH CAP STRENGTH THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL NEGATIVE ATTM. MAY HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BOTH FOCUS CONVECTION
AND POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO SCOURED
EWD FRIDAY...AND CERTAINLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HANG ONTO PRECIP MENTION NERN THIRD FRIDAY
AFTN AND KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL PROGS...CONTINUE
TO LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  69  42  77 /   0   0  20  20
TULIA         33  67  44  76 /   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     35  68  46  77 /   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     38  69  47  79 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  70  48  79 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   41  71  46  81 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    41  70  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     42  68  48  75 /   0   0  20  30
SPUR          41  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     42  69  51  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 192014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A RATHER
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT AGL
ADVECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH THE
WINDS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...WITH
THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST TEXAS. THE NAM DOES INDICATE SOME
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ITS TOUGH TO
EVALUATE HOW MUCH THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SHOULD REALIZE EXCELLENT COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
THINK THE TRADITIONAL COOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH OR SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.
THESE LOCATIONS WERE BELOW FREEZING A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO AND
SINCE WE ARE RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THIS
AREA...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS. FAVORED COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. BLENDED MOS/MODEL HIGHS
AROUND 70 AREA WIDE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. JW

.LONG TERM...
STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF
GENERALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS REMAINS ONE OF THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEEK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY AND FAST SW FLOW LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM BAJA PAST THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.

FIRST SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE AS MAY SEE CONVECTION FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NRN NM AND SRN COLO WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. EACH RUN HAS LOOKED LESS LIKELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE 12Z RUN IS NO DIFFERENT. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT
PULL THEM A BIT FURTHERTO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CHANCE FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WEAKLY-FORCED NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
THE CAP HOLDING LEAD TO KEEPING 20-30 PCT POPS. CHANCES EXIST
AREAWIDE TUESDAY BUT THEN SHIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
COMES CLOSER. BEST CHANCE DURING THE WEEK MAY BE THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM BAJA...ALTHOUGH CAP STRENGTH THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL NEGATIVE ATTM. MAY HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BOTH FOCUS CONVECTION
AND POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO SCOURED
EWD FRIDAY...AND CERTAINLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HANG ONTO PRECIP MENTION NERN THIRD FRIDAY
AFTN AND KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL PROGS...CONTINUE
TO LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  69  42  77 /   0   0  20  20
TULIA         33  67  44  76 /   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     35  68  46  77 /   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     38  69  47  79 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  70  48  79 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   41  71  46  81 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    41  70  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     42  68  48  75 /   0   0  20  30
SPUR          41  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     42  69  51  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 192014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A RATHER
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT AGL
ADVECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH THE
WINDS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...WITH
THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST TEXAS. THE NAM DOES INDICATE SOME
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ITS TOUGH TO
EVALUATE HOW MUCH THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SHOULD REALIZE EXCELLENT COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
THINK THE TRADITIONAL COOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH OR SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.
THESE LOCATIONS WERE BELOW FREEZING A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO AND
SINCE WE ARE RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THIS
AREA...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS. FAVORED COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. BLENDED MOS/MODEL HIGHS
AROUND 70 AREA WIDE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. JW

.LONG TERM...
STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF
GENERALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS REMAINS ONE OF THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEEK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY AND FAST SW FLOW LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM BAJA PAST THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.

FIRST SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE AS MAY SEE CONVECTION FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NRN NM AND SRN COLO WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. EACH RUN HAS LOOKED LESS LIKELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE 12Z RUN IS NO DIFFERENT. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT
PULL THEM A BIT FURTHERTO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CHANCE FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WEAKLY-FORCED NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
THE CAP HOLDING LEAD TO KEEPING 20-30 PCT POPS. CHANCES EXIST
AREAWIDE TUESDAY BUT THEN SHIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
COMES CLOSER. BEST CHANCE DURING THE WEEK MAY BE THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM BAJA...ALTHOUGH CAP STRENGTH THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL NEGATIVE ATTM. MAY HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BOTH FOCUS CONVECTION
AND POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO SCOURED
EWD FRIDAY...AND CERTAINLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HANG ONTO PRECIP MENTION NERN THIRD FRIDAY
AFTN AND KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL PROGS...CONTINUE
TO LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  69  42  77 /   0   0  20  20
TULIA         33  67  44  76 /   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     35  68  46  77 /   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     38  69  47  79 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  70  48  79 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   41  71  46  81 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    41  70  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     42  68  48  75 /   0   0  20  30
SPUR          41  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     42  69  51  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 191731
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AROUND 00Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 20/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...
TTU MESONET INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP
THIS MORNING BEHIND EARLIER PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN TOUCHING 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 50...25 TO 35G40 AT MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK AS OF 1545Z. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE CURRENTLY PEAKING WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THINK WINDS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WIND
ADVISORY NOT NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99/13




000
FXUS64 KLUB 191731
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AROUND 00Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 20/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...
TTU MESONET INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP
THIS MORNING BEHIND EARLIER PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN TOUCHING 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 50...25 TO 35G40 AT MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK AS OF 1545Z. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE CURRENTLY PEAKING WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THINK WINDS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WIND
ADVISORY NOT NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99/13





000
FXUS64 KLUB 191548
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
TTU MESONET INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP
THIS MORNING BEHIND EARLIER PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN TOUCHING 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 50...25 TO 35G40 AT MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK AS OF 1545Z. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE CURRENTLY PEAKING WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THINK WINDS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WIND
ADVISORY NOT NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...INCREASING TO ON THE ORDER OF 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL AS SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 191548
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
TTU MESONET INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP
THIS MORNING BEHIND EARLIER PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN TOUCHING 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 50...25 TO 35G40 AT MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK AS OF 1545Z. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE CURRENTLY PEAKING WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THINK WINDS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WIND
ADVISORY NOT NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...INCREASING TO ON THE ORDER OF 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL AS SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 191138
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...INCREASING TO ON THE ORDER OF 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL AS SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 191138
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...INCREASING TO ON THE ORDER OF 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL AS SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 191007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIEDRIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  30
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 191007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIEDRIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  30
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55




000
FXUS64 KLUB 190454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KLBB AND KPVW
WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE IN THE NIGHT. TRENDS INDICATE PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT FOR THE AREA BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL AWAIT MIXING
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT KCDS...MORE COMPLEX WITH PLAY OF OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH RETREATING DRYLINE EARLY IN THE
MORNING. BELIEVE CURRENT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BACK TO THE EAST OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE NIGHT. STILL A THREAT FOR FOG AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AND THIS COULD GO DOWN IN A HURRY SHOULD THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT ACTUALLY DEVELOP AT KCDS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO DOMINATING AT KCDS AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 190454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KLBB AND KPVW
WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE IN THE NIGHT. TRENDS INDICATE PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT FOR THE AREA BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL AWAIT MIXING
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT KCDS...MORE COMPLEX WITH PLAY OF OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH RETREATING DRYLINE EARLY IN THE
MORNING. BELIEVE CURRENT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BACK TO THE EAST OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE NIGHT. STILL A THREAT FOR FOG AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AND THIS COULD GO DOWN IN A HURRY SHOULD THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT ACTUALLY DEVELOP AT KCDS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO DOMINATING AT KCDS AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 190454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KLBB AND KPVW
WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE IN THE NIGHT. TRENDS INDICATE PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT FOR THE AREA BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL AWAIT MIXING
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT KCDS...MORE COMPLEX WITH PLAY OF OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH RETREATING DRYLINE EARLY IN THE
MORNING. BELIEVE CURRENT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BACK TO THE EAST OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE NIGHT. STILL A THREAT FOR FOG AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AND THIS COULD GO DOWN IN A HURRY SHOULD THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT ACTUALLY DEVELOP AT KCDS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO DOMINATING AT KCDS AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 190133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 190133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99




000
FXUS64 KLUB 190003
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05




000
FXUS64 KLUB 190003
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05





000
FXUS64 KLUB 181959
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  37  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         73  42  64  37 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     73  43  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  41 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  71  42 /  20  20   0   0
SPUR          79  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  75  46 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 181959
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  37  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         73  42  64  37 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     73  43  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  41 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  71  42 /  20  20   0   0
SPUR          79  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  75  46 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 181959
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  37  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         73  42  64  37 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     73  43  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  41 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  71  42 /  20  20   0   0
SPUR          79  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  75  46 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 181733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 19/18Z. REMOTE CHANCE OF TSRA
NEAR KCDS 20Z-24Z. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 19/12Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  64  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  72  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  76  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99/13




000
FXUS64 KLUB 181733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 19/18Z. REMOTE CHANCE OF TSRA
NEAR KCDS 20Z-24Z. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 19/12Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  64  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  72  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  76  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99/13





000
FXUS64 KLUB 181120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING AS
VISIBILITIES HAVE CRATERED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 27/US 87 CORRIDOR. SHOULD SEE THIS MIX OUT AS
HEATING COMMENCES WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING PROMPTING AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. KPVW AND KLBB WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTWARD
EDGE OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...BUT KCDS COULD SEE A MUCH LONGER STINT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR ALL SITES BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR/BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  64  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  72  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  76  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ023>026-
029>032-035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 181120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING AS
VISIBILITIES HAVE CRATERED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 27/US 87 CORRIDOR. SHOULD SEE THIS MIX OUT AS
HEATING COMMENCES WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING PROMPTING AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. KPVW AND KLBB WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTWARD
EDGE OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...BUT KCDS COULD SEE A MUCH LONGER STINT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR ALL SITES BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR/BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  64  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  72  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  76  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ023>026-
029>032-035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 180943
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  65  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  67  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  46  71  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  73  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  77  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55




000
FXUS64 KLUB 180943
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  65  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  67  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  46  71  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  73  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  77  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 180447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE INSERTING A MENTION OF
FOG AND INCREASING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE
HAS MOVED FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS FORECAST BRINGING IN MOIST AIR
ON THE CAPROCK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DEVELOPING FOG IN THE
MOIST AIR THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHERMORE...T/TD SPREADS OFF THE
CAPROCK WERE ALREADY RUNNING BETWEEN 1-2 DEGREES. IT IS STILL
NEBULOUS ON WHETHER AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL SEE FOG OR NOT. THE
DRYLINE RECENTLY ENCOUNTERED A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
GREATLY SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. AT SOME POINT...THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY RAISED ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK WHERE THIS
MOISTURE HAS INVADED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING FOG INTO THE
KCDS TERMINAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO KLBB OR KPVW. A DRYLINE BOUNDARY IS
CLOSE TO BOTH TERMINALS WHICH MAKES IT UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL.
IF MOISTURE DOES HANG ON...THEN FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KLBB AND KPVW. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         48  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     49  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       50  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          54  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 180447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE INSERTING A MENTION OF
FOG AND INCREASING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE
HAS MOVED FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS FORECAST BRINGING IN MOIST AIR
ON THE CAPROCK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DEVELOPING FOG IN THE
MOIST AIR THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHERMORE...T/TD SPREADS OFF THE
CAPROCK WERE ALREADY RUNNING BETWEEN 1-2 DEGREES. IT IS STILL
NEBULOUS ON WHETHER AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL SEE FOG OR NOT. THE
DRYLINE RECENTLY ENCOUNTERED A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
GREATLY SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. AT SOME POINT...THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY RAISED ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK WHERE THIS
MOISTURE HAS INVADED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING FOG INTO THE
KCDS TERMINAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO KLBB OR KPVW. A DRYLINE BOUNDARY IS
CLOSE TO BOTH TERMINALS WHICH MAKES IT UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL.
IF MOISTURE DOES HANG ON...THEN FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KLBB AND KPVW. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         48  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     49  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       50  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          54  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 172326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WAS BREAKING UP NEAR KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE AT VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL RETURN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AT ALL TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         43  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     44  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          53  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 172326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WAS BREAKING UP NEAR KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE AT VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL RETURN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AT ALL TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         43  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     44  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          53  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 172326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WAS BREAKING UP NEAR KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE AT VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL RETURN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AT ALL TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         43  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     44  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          53  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 172326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WAS BREAKING UP NEAR KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE AT VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL RETURN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AT ALL TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         43  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     44  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          53  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 172021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  40  70  40 /  10   0   0  10
TULIA         76  43  73  44 /  20   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     77  44  73  45 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  43  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       78  45  76  47 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     68  55  79  51 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          78  53  79  50 /  40  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  56  81  52 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 172021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  40  70  40 /  10   0   0  10
TULIA         76  43  73  44 /  20   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     77  44  73  45 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  43  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       78  45  76  47 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     68  55  79  51 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          78  53  79  50 /  40  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  56  81  52 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 172021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  40  70  40 /  10   0   0  10
TULIA         76  43  73  44 /  20   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     77  44  73  45 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  43  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       78  45  76  47 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     68  55  79  51 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          78  53  79  50 /  40  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  56  81  52 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 172021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  40  70  40 /  10   0   0  10
TULIA         76  43  73  44 /  20   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     77  44  73  45 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  43  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       78  45  76  47 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     68  55  79  51 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          78  53  79  50 /  40  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  56  81  52 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 171720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AT LBB AND PVW WITH LOW CIGS PERSISTING AT CDS FOR
MUCH /IF NOT ALL/ OF THIS TAF CYCLE. IFR CIGS AT CDS ARE BEGINNING
TO LIFT...BUT COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO KEEP MVFR
LAYERS INTACT THRU 18Z SAT AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. THERE REMAINS A
WINDOW FOR TSRA NEAR CDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THE
CHANCE THAT THESE IMPACT THE SITE IS TOO LOW ATTM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 171720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AT LBB AND PVW WITH LOW CIGS PERSISTING AT CDS FOR
MUCH /IF NOT ALL/ OF THIS TAF CYCLE. IFR CIGS AT CDS ARE BEGINNING
TO LIFT...BUT COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO KEEP MVFR
LAYERS INTACT THRU 18Z SAT AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. THERE REMAINS A
WINDOW FOR TSRA NEAR CDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THE
CHANCE THAT THESE IMPACT THE SITE IS TOO LOW ATTM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 171142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
TSRA HAS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD COME TO AN END AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING AND EXACT SPATIAL EXTENT REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING MENTION SILENT FOR NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS AND EAST OF A
DRYLINE...BUT THIS PROBABILITY/TIMING AGAIN REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE.

KLBB AND KPVW SHOULD HOLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 171142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
TSRA HAS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD COME TO AN END AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING AND EXACT SPATIAL EXTENT REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING MENTION SILENT FOR NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS AND EAST OF A
DRYLINE...BUT THIS PROBABILITY/TIMING AGAIN REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE.

KLBB AND KPVW SHOULD HOLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 171142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
TSRA HAS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD COME TO AN END AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING AND EXACT SPATIAL EXTENT REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING MENTION SILENT FOR NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS AND EAST OF A
DRYLINE...BUT THIS PROBABILITY/TIMING AGAIN REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE.

KLBB AND KPVW SHOULD HOLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31




000
FXUS64 KLUB 171142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
TSRA HAS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD COME TO AN END AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING AND EXACT SPATIAL EXTENT REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING MENTION SILENT FOR NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS AND EAST OF A
DRYLINE...BUT THIS PROBABILITY/TIMING AGAIN REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE.

KLBB AND KPVW SHOULD HOLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31





000
FXUS64 KLUB 170821
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

.LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AS
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST
AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE
WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 170821
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

.LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AS
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST
AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE
WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55




000
FXUS64 KLUB 170821
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

.LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AS
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST
AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE
WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55





000
FXUS64 KLUB 170512
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1212 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS WEAKENING WITH IT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
BOTH KLBB AND KPVW ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR KCDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR KCDS BRINGING IN POSSIBLE
LOWERED CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THIS MAY
BRING AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  41  70  42 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         75  44  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     74  44  74  46 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       76  46  75  47 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   73  44  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  46  76  48 /  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     78  55  78  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  53  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  56  82  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 170512
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1212 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS WEAKENING WITH IT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
BOTH KLBB AND KPVW ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR KCDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR KCDS BRINGING IN POSSIBLE
LOWERED CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THIS MAY
BRING AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  41  70  42 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         75  44  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     74  44  74  46 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       76  46  75  47 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   73  44  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  46  76  48 /  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     78  55  78  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  53  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  56  82  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




000
FXUS64 KLUB 170512
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1212 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS WEAKENING WITH IT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
BOTH KLBB AND KPVW ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR KCDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR KCDS BRINGING IN POSSIBLE
LOWERED CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THIS MAY
BRING AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  41  70  42 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         75  44  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     74  44  74  46 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       76  46  75  47 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   73  44  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  46  76  48 /  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     78  55  78  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  53  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  56  82  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 162336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  71  41  70 /  40  10   0  10
TULIA         50  75  44  73 /  60  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  74  45  73 /  60  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     48  74  44  74 /  50  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       51  76  46  75 /  60  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   47  73  44  74 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  74  46  76 /  40  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     58  78  55  78 /  60  50  20  10
SPUR          53  77  53  79 /  60  40  10  10
ASPERMONT     58  79  56  82 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01





000
FXUS64 KLUB 162336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  71  41  70 /  40  10   0  10
TULIA         50  75  44  73 /  60  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  74  45  73 /  60  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     48  74  44  74 /  50  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       51  76  46  75 /  60  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   47  73  44  74 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  74  46  76 /  40  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     58  78  55  78 /  60  50  20  10
SPUR          53  77  53  79 /  60  40  10  10
ASPERMONT     58  79  56  82 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01




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