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000
FXUS64 KLUB 141654
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1054 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS MORNING
AND HAS BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH IT. THIS WINDS WILL
TAPER DOWN BY 21Z AND WILL BE LESS THAN 12KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
RATHER TAME BEHIND THIS FRONT SO FAR...BUT AFTER SUNRISE DIURNAL
MIXING WILL COMPLEMENT PRESSURE RISE RATES AROUND 8 MB/6 HRS AND
RESULT IN A SHORT WINDOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE PARENT TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT SUPPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF
THUNDERSNOW...CG LIGHTNING AND A BONA FIDE SHELF CLOUD LAST
EVENING IN THE BLACK HILLS. OUR WEATHER FALLS WELL SHORT OF THAT
GRANDEUR AS DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY
AND LINGER TONIGHT. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS 3-6
DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN OUR NW COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MOST FAVORED.

LONG TERM...
STILL APPEARS A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
SURFACE WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM UP MAY BE TEMPERED A
BIT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY BUT THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...GFS
HAS THE FRONT FASTER INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
HAS A STRONGER SURGE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 141118
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. COLD FROPA WITHIN THE HOUR WILL BRING NRLY WINDS OF 15-25
KNOTS BEFORE TAPERING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
RATHER TAME BEHIND THIS FRONT SO FAR...BUT AFTER SUNRISE DIURNAL
MIXING WILL COMPLEMENT PRESSURE RISE RATES AROUND 8 MB/6 HRS AND
RESULT IN A SHORT WINDOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE PARENT TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT SUPPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF
THUNDERSNOW...CG LIGHTNING AND A BONA FIDE SHELF CLOUD LAST
EVENING IN THE BLACK HILLS. OUR WEATHER FALLS WELL SHORT OF THAT
GRANDEUR AS DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY
AND LINGER TONIGHT. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS 3-6
DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN OUR NW COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MOST FAVORED.

LONG TERM...
STILL APPEARS A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
SURFACE WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM UP MAY BE TEMPERED A
BIT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY BUT THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...GFS
HAS THE FRONT FASTER INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
HAS A STRONGER SURGE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 141118
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. COLD FROPA WITHIN THE HOUR WILL BRING NRLY WINDS OF 15-25
KNOTS BEFORE TAPERING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
RATHER TAME BEHIND THIS FRONT SO FAR...BUT AFTER SUNRISE DIURNAL
MIXING WILL COMPLEMENT PRESSURE RISE RATES AROUND 8 MB/6 HRS AND
RESULT IN A SHORT WINDOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE PARENT TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT SUPPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF
THUNDERSNOW...CG LIGHTNING AND A BONA FIDE SHELF CLOUD LAST
EVENING IN THE BLACK HILLS. OUR WEATHER FALLS WELL SHORT OF THAT
GRANDEUR AS DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY
AND LINGER TONIGHT. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS 3-6
DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN OUR NW COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MOST FAVORED.

LONG TERM...
STILL APPEARS A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
SURFACE WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM UP MAY BE TEMPERED A
BIT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY BUT THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...GFS
HAS THE FRONT FASTER INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
HAS A STRONGER SURGE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 141118
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. COLD FROPA WITHIN THE HOUR WILL BRING NRLY WINDS OF 15-25
KNOTS BEFORE TAPERING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
RATHER TAME BEHIND THIS FRONT SO FAR...BUT AFTER SUNRISE DIURNAL
MIXING WILL COMPLEMENT PRESSURE RISE RATES AROUND 8 MB/6 HRS AND
RESULT IN A SHORT WINDOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE PARENT TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT SUPPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF
THUNDERSNOW...CG LIGHTNING AND A BONA FIDE SHELF CLOUD LAST
EVENING IN THE BLACK HILLS. OUR WEATHER FALLS WELL SHORT OF THAT
GRANDEUR AS DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY
AND LINGER TONIGHT. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS 3-6
DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN OUR NW COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MOST FAVORED.

LONG TERM...
STILL APPEARS A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
SURFACE WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM UP MAY BE TEMPERED A
BIT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY BUT THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...GFS
HAS THE FRONT FASTER INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
HAS A STRONGER SURGE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 140941
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AT 3 AM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO EXIT THE CWA BY MID/LATE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
RATHER TAME BEHIND THIS FRONT SO FAR...BUT AFTER SUNRISE DIURNAL
MIXING WILL COMPLEMENT PRESSURE RISE RATES AROUND 8 MB/6 HRS AND
RESULT IN A SHORT WINDOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THE PARENT TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS FRONT SUPPORTED AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF
THUNDERSNOW...CG LIGHTNING AND A BONA FIDE SHELF CLOUD LAST
EVENING IN THE BLACK HILLS. OUR WEATHER FALLS WELL SHORT OF THAT
GRANDEUR AS DRY SURFACE RIDGING WILL ONLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY
AND LINGER TONIGHT. ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS 3-6
DEGREES OVERNIGHT IN OUR NW COUNTIES WHERE THE STRONGEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MOST FAVORED.

.LONG TERM...
STILL APPEARS A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
SURFACE WIND RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM UP MAY BE TEMPERED A
BIT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON THURSDAY BUT THIS IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...GFS
HAS THE FRONT FASTER INTO THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
HAS A STRONGER SURGE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TRENDING DOWNWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 140505
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD WEST THEN NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION...
WINDS TO LAY DOWN TO AOB 12 KTS WITH SUNSET. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AT OR
JUST ABOVE 12 KTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH SW TEXAS...BUT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THAT MOISTURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
OVERALL A QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE
TO A LEE TROF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER UNTIL THEY ARE NORTHERLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROF PUSHES THROUGH
AS A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE ON AVERAGE 10
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOW TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY AS
SURFACE WINDS STAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FROM MID DAY INTO THE
EVENING. NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN A MORE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OVERNIGHT
HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RELATIVELY MILD...LOW 30S TO MID 40S. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WEAK FRONTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY/S COULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNING
AND TEMPS WARMING ACCORDINGLY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
TO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LIFT WELL TO OUR
NORTH. IT DOES APPEAR THAT EVEN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SYSTEM GRADIENTS MAY TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO LEAD TO A BREEZY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY IN
THE 80S FOR MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. A MINOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME MOISTURE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN...WITH
PERHAPS A FRONT IN PLAY AS WELL.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 132326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS TO LAY DOWN TO AOB 12 KTS WITH SUNSET. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AT OR
JUST ABOVE 12 KTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH SW TEXAS...BUT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THAT MOISTURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
OVERALL A QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE
TO A LEE TROF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER UNTIL THEY ARE NORTHERLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROF PUSHES THROUGH
AS A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE ON AVERAGE 10
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOW TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY AS
SURFACE WINDS STAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FROM MID DAY INTO THE
EVENING. NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN A MORE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OVERNIGHT
HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RELATIVELY MILD...LOW 30S TO MID 40S. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WEAK FRONTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY/S COULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNING
AND TEMPS WARMING ACCORDINGLY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
TO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LIFT WELL TO OUR
NORTH. IT DOES APPEAR THAT EVEN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SYSTEM GRADIENTS MAY TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO LEAD TO A BREEZY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY IN
THE 80S FOR MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. A MINOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME MOISTURE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN...WITH
PERHAPS A FRONT IN PLAY AS WELL.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07





000
FXUS64 KLUB 132326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS TO LAY DOWN TO AOB 12 KTS WITH SUNSET. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FCST AREA AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH NORTH WINDS AT OR
JUST ABOVE 12 KTS THROUGH INTO EARLY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE NWD THROUGH SW TEXAS...BUT
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THAT MOISTURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
OVERALL A QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE
TO A LEE TROF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER UNTIL THEY ARE NORTHERLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROF PUSHES THROUGH
AS A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE ON AVERAGE 10
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOW TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY AS
SURFACE WINDS STAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FROM MID DAY INTO THE
EVENING. NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN A MORE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OVERNIGHT
HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RELATIVELY MILD...LOW 30S TO MID 40S. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WEAK FRONTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY/S COULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNING
AND TEMPS WARMING ACCORDINGLY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
TO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LIFT WELL TO OUR
NORTH. IT DOES APPEAR THAT EVEN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SYSTEM GRADIENTS MAY TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO LEAD TO A BREEZY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY IN
THE 80S FOR MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. A MINOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME MOISTURE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN...WITH
PERHAPS A FRONT IN PLAY AS WELL.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07




000
FXUS64 KLUB 132136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
336 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...
OVERALL A QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW. SURFACE
WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE
TO A LEE TROF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER UNTIL THEY ARE NORTHERLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE TROF PUSHES THROUGH
AS A WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE ON AVERAGE 10
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...LOW TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY AS
SURFACE WINDS STAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FROM MID DAY INTO THE
EVENING. NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN A MORE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OVERNIGHT
HELPING TO DRY THINGS OUT. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS RELATIVELY MILD...LOW 30S TO MID 40S. ALDRICH

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WEAK FRONTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH TUESDAY/S COULD BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNING
AND TEMPS WARMING ACCORDINGLY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE QUICKLY FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY
TO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAN THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE LIFT WELL TO OUR
NORTH. IT DOES APPEAR THAT EVEN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
SYSTEM GRADIENTS MAY TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO LEAD TO A BREEZY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE
DANGER GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY IN
THE 80S FOR MANY AREAS BY AFTERNOON. A MINOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME MOISTURE AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE RETURN...WITH
PERHAPS A FRONT IN PLAY AS WELL.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 131733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/99/99





000
FXUS64 KLUB 131136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH E WINDS VEERING SW AND BECOMING GUSTY BY NOON. PVW COULD
SQUEAK OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VIS IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS
A.M...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS AND MOST MODEL DATA INDICATE THIS IS
TOO CONDITIONAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 131136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH E WINDS VEERING SW AND BECOMING GUSTY BY NOON. PVW COULD
SQUEAK OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VIS IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS
A.M...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS AND MOST MODEL DATA INDICATE THIS IS
TOO CONDITIONAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 131136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH E WINDS VEERING SW AND BECOMING GUSTY BY NOON. PVW COULD
SQUEAK OUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VIS IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS
A.M...BUT OBSERVED TRENDS AND MOST MODEL DATA INDICATE THIS IS
TOO CONDITIONAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 130942
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...
WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WAS MAINTAINING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AREA WIDE THIS MORNING. DESPITE DRIER DEWPOINTS
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES
WERE NOTED IN AND AROUND SWISHER COUNTY AT 2 AM. REMOVED PATCHY
FOG MENTION FOR ALL BUT THESE AREAS AS TRENDS OVERALL ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SAID RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EAST TODAY AHEAD OF BACKING UPPER WINDS AND LEE TROUGHING FOCUSING
EAST OF THE RATON MESA. BREEZY SW GRADIENT WINDS BY MIDDAY WILL
ENHANCE THICKNESSES OVER ALL BUT OUR NERN ZONES WHERE THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE LATER TO DEPART. AS SUCH...BUMPED UP MAX
TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON PAR WITH THE MILDER MAV AND
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL EDGE CLOSER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ARRIVING IN DRY NW FLOW. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
MOISTEN MAINLY MOST IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A THREAT OF ADVECTION FOG PARTICULARLY GIVEN
MILDER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND MARGINAL DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHEAST.
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK AHEAD OF GUSTY N WINDS.

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. FRONT WILL STALL OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO DRIVE ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ALL OTHER MODELS
KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IN PLACE BEFORE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR TIMING AND
LOCATION WHEN IT STALLS OUT AS THE ONE FOR TOMORROW. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF COOL AIR WITH THESE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES WILL MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHING 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY. IT
COULD ALSO BE A BREEZY DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE CAPROCK AS THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS WELL AS WHETHER WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
ANY PRECIPITATION OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY HELP SPARK SOME PRECIPITATION BUT
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT SO DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 130526
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1126 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ENSUED TONIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG AND/OR
MVFR CIGS. STILL DEBATABLE WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR EITHER PHENOMENA TO GENERATE BUT WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVING FORMED WELL NORTH OF ALL THREE
TERMINALS...MAKES IT PLAUSIBLE. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 14-16 KTS OR SO
LEADING TO THE SCOURING OUT OF ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG...AND FEW-SCT VFR CIGS PASSING OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 122326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AND
HELP TO GARNER A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THAT COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH ONE COMPUTER MODEL IN PARTICULAR IS RATHER
PESSIMISTIC /VLIFR CAT/. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE AND WILL
THEREFORE OPT TO SHOW MVFR FOG AND CIGS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
REASSESS LATE TONIGHT TO SEE IF TRENDS ARE INDEED RIGHT OR TRACK
OR IF AN AMENDMENT WILL BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AT OR
AROUND 15 KTS /DURING WHICH TIME THE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCOUR OUT/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 122326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AND
HELP TO GARNER A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THAT COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH ONE COMPUTER MODEL IN PARTICULAR IS RATHER
PESSIMISTIC /VLIFR CAT/. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE AND WILL
THEREFORE OPT TO SHOW MVFR FOG AND CIGS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
REASSESS LATE TONIGHT TO SEE IF TRENDS ARE INDEED RIGHT OR TRACK
OR IF AN AMENDMENT WILL BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AT OR
AROUND 15 KTS /DURING WHICH TIME THE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCOUR OUT/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 122326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AND
HELP TO GARNER A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THAT COULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. COMPUTER MODEL
OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE...THOUGH ONE COMPUTER MODEL IN PARTICULAR IS RATHER
PESSIMISTIC /VLIFR CAT/. THIS COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE AND WILL
THEREFORE OPT TO SHOW MVFR FOG AND CIGS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
REASSESS LATE TONIGHT TO SEE IF TRENDS ARE INDEED RIGHT OR TRACK
OR IF AN AMENDMENT WILL BE REQUIRED. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AT OR
AROUND 15 KTS /DURING WHICH TIME THE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCOUR OUT/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 122134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH



.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 122134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH



.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33




000
FXUS64 KLUB 122134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. THIS WIND PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP HELPING TO TURN
WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AS EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AT HAND IS
UNKNOWN. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING MOS CAT 1 CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS ON THE CLEAR SIDE. AS OF NOW
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL COME FROM UPSLOPING WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GOMEX.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROF
PUTS MORE INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PUSH OUT ANY FOG AND
STRATUS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...AS VEERING OF THE WINDS WILL HAPPEN THERE LATER THAN THE REST
OF THE FA. ALDRICH



.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...THEN
SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO
SOAR.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND A PRE-FRONTAL TOUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH MODEST NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES THROUGH
MIDDAY...THEN SLACKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WON`T BE
AFFECTED MUCH AT ALL WITH SUNDAY/S HIGHS STILL IN THE 60S. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME MINOR LIFT BRUSHING OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THERE IS A SMALL PRECIP SIGNAL IN THIS AREA
AROUND 12 UTC MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER SO WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. MINOR
FRONTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
FLAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. THEN...LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE-RIDGING WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THURSDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER MUCH OTHER
THAN TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER MINOR FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE REKINDLED THURSDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/33





000
FXUS64 KLUB 121712
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1112 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BY 09-11Z LOOK TO ALLOW LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AS A RESULT FROM MOIST
UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. THE EXTENT OF HOW LOW CIGS OR VIS WILL GO
IS STILL IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA. CIGS WILL BE
KEPT AT BKN015 FOR THE TIME BEING AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED
IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 121712
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1112 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS BY 09-11Z LOOK TO ALLOW LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AS A RESULT FROM MOIST
UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. THE EXTENT OF HOW LOW CIGS OR VIS WILL GO
IS STILL IN QUESTION AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA. CIGS WILL BE
KEPT AT BKN015 FOR THE TIME BEING AND WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED
IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51





000
FXUS64 KLUB 121124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT N WINDS VEERING E BY THE AFTN. BY EARLY SAT MORNING...
WINDOW COULD OPEN FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS AT LBB AND PVW AS
UPSLOPE WINDS TREND MORE MOIST. LATER TAFS WILL REVISIT THIS AND
INSERT A TAF MENTION IF THIS LOOKS MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 121124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT N WINDS VEERING E BY THE AFTN. BY EARLY SAT MORNING...
WINDOW COULD OPEN FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS AT LBB AND PVW AS
UPSLOPE WINDS TREND MORE MOIST. LATER TAFS WILL REVISIT THIS AND
INSERT A TAF MENTION IF THIS LOOKS MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93





000
FXUS64 KLUB 121124
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT N WINDS VEERING E BY THE AFTN. BY EARLY SAT MORNING...
WINDOW COULD OPEN FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS AT LBB AND PVW AS
UPSLOPE WINDS TREND MORE MOIST. LATER TAFS WILL REVISIT THIS AND
INSERT A TAF MENTION IF THIS LOOKS MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93




000
FXUS64 KLUB 120946
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

.LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14




000
FXUS64 KLUB 120946
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING MILD DOWNSLOPE WINDS LAST NIGHT IN SURFACE TROUGHING...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE IS POISED TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TODAY IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO YESTERDAY UNDER DRY NW FLOW. UNLIKE YESTERDAY/S
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM INDICATED
ONLY A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARCING FROM THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER. STEADY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EDGE SW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
COMPLETE WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS COOLING HOWEVER LOOKS
TOO TAME TO GARNER ANY MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES WITH MAX TEMPS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY.

BY TONIGHT...MODELS FAVOR THE SURFACE RIDGE SHARPENING IN A ZONAL
MANNER DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING WESTWARD. NAM IS OVERLY BULLISH WITH
DENSE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THIS MARGINAL UPSLOPE REGIME AND
SOUNDINGS FROM NON-NAM GUIDANCE INDICATE STRATUS MAY HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. NONETHELESS...KEPT THE INHERITED PATCHY FOG
MENTION INTACT FOR NOW AS THIS DARK HORSE SCENARIO IS NOT THAT FAR
FETCHED CONSIDERING FEBRUARY IS OUR FOGGIEST MONTH
CLIMATOLOGICALLY.

.LONG TERM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EAST DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE QUITE A SPREAD WITH 8-13
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS STATISTICS FOR SITES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW CLOUDS CAN BURN OFF AND HOW DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MIX IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WE WILL THEN SEE A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PUSH SOUTH AS WE REMAIN
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FRONTS
WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW AND HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK AND FROM RISING TOO MUCH. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A FAIRLY
BREEZY FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT WIND SPEEDS COULD BE ABOUT 10 KNOTS LOWER THAN WHAT THE GFS
HAS FORECAST. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY BUT AGAIN
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND WE HEAD BACK INTO A RETURN FLOW PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD SO THIS WILL MARK THE START OF THE WARMEST PART OF THE
FORECAST FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO FORECAST THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN EITHER. MOISTURE WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE WARM UP
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST AND COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING HOURS.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14





000
FXUS64 KLUB 120523
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHER OVERNIGHT
COURTESY OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AND VEER FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON /AT 7-10 KTS/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
NOTHING MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA. JUST ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TO OFFSET A MODEST
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WITH HIGH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY/S AND
ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THANKS
TO A PREVIOUSLY PASSED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A STOUT SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY FOG. THE SAME
COULD BE SAID ABOUT SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
DUE TO SURFACE WINDS TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AND TRANSPORTING IT TO
THE REGION. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS OF NOW DENSE FOG DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMIT OF MOISTURE INFLUX BUT STRANGER THINGS
HAVE HAPPENED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RID THE FA OF MOISTURE AND BRING WITH IT A
SHORT DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE SURFACE MOISTURE BEING IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS PROVIDING NO PRECIP NOT TO MENTION THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT EVEN THINKS ABOUT
GIVING US A VISIT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOW TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH SOME VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH BY THE MODELS. THE GFS
GOES GANG BUSTERS WITH THE FRONT AND BRINGS SUB-ADVISORY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A BIT QUIETER WITH
SUB-10KT WINDS FOR NOW WINDS WILL BE KEPT STRONGER THAN BLENDED
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW 20KTS FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE
PRESENTED BY THE GFS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE RIDGES TO THE LEFT TROFS TO THE
RIGHT AND ME STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU AND FAIRLY BENIGN AND WARM
WEATHER. A FAIRLY DEEP LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP STRETCHING FROM LOWER
ALBERTA PROVINCE TO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20KTS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...WILL WARM
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 112321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-10 KTS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
NOTHING MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA. JUST ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TO OFFSET A MODEST
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WITH HIGH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY/S AND
ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THANKS
TO A PREVIOUSLY PASSED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A STOUT SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY FOG. THE SAME
COULD BE SAID ABOUT SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
DUE TO SURFACE WINDS TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AND TRANSPORTING IT TO
THE REGION. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS OF NOW DENSE FOG DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMIT OF MOISTURE INFLUX BUT STRANGER THINGS
HAVE HAPPENED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RID THE FA OF MOISTURE AND BRING WITH IT A
SHORT DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE SURFACE MOISTURE BEING IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS PROVIDING NO PRECIP NOT TO MENTION THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT EVEN THINKS ABOUT
GIVING US A VISIT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOW TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH SOME VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH BY THE MODELS. THE GFS
GOES GANG BUSTERS WITH THE FRONT AND BRINGS SUB-ADVISORY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A BIT QUIETER WITH
SUB-10KT WINDS FOR NOW WINDS WILL BE KEPT STRONGER THAN BLENDED
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW 20KTS FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE
PRESENTED BY THE GFS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE RIDGES TO THE LEFT TROFS TO THE
RIGHT AND ME STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU AND FAIRLY BENIGN AND WARM
WEATHER. A FAIRLY DEEP LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP STRETCHING FROM LOWER
ALBERTA PROVINCE TO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20KTS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...WILL WARM
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29




000
FXUS64 KLUB 112321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7-10 KTS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SHORT TERM...
NOTHING MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA. JUST ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TO OFFSET A MODEST
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WITH HIGH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY/S AND
ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ONCE AGAIN.

LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THANKS
TO A PREVIOUSLY PASSED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A STOUT SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY FOG. THE SAME
COULD BE SAID ABOUT SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
DUE TO SURFACE WINDS TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AND TRANSPORTING IT TO
THE REGION. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS OF NOW DENSE FOG DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMIT OF MOISTURE INFLUX BUT STRANGER THINGS
HAVE HAPPENED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RID THE FA OF MOISTURE AND BRING WITH IT A
SHORT DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE SURFACE MOISTURE BEING IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS PROVIDING NO PRECIP NOT TO MENTION THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT EVEN THINKS ABOUT
GIVING US A VISIT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOW TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH SOME VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH BY THE MODELS. THE GFS
GOES GANG BUSTERS WITH THE FRONT AND BRINGS SUB-ADVISORY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A BIT QUIETER WITH
SUB-10KT WINDS FOR NOW WINDS WILL BE KEPT STRONGER THAN BLENDED
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW 20KTS FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE
PRESENTED BY THE GFS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE RIDGES TO THE LEFT TROFS TO THE
RIGHT AND ME STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU AND FAIRLY BENIGN AND WARM
WEATHER. A FAIRLY DEEP LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP STRETCHING FROM LOWER
ALBERTA PROVINCE TO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20KTS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...WILL WARM
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29





000
FXUS64 KLUB 112111
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
311 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...
NOTHING MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TODAY. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS
AREA. JUST ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT TO OFFSET A MODEST
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WITH HIGH TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY/S AND
ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...
WINDS WILL START OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY THANKS
TO A PREVIOUSLY PASSED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A STOUT SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PATCHY FOG. THE SAME
COULD BE SAID ABOUT SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASED MOISTURE
DUE TO SURFACE WINDS TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AND TRANSPORTING IT TO
THE REGION. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS AND COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT TO THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. AS OF NOW DENSE FOG DOES NOT
SEEM LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMIT OF MOISTURE INFLUX BUT STRANGER THINGS
HAVE HAPPENED. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RID THE FA OF MOISTURE AND BRING WITH IT A
SHORT DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE SURFACE MOISTURE BEING IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL DRAG BEHIND THE FRONT
THUS PROVIDING NO PRECIP NOT TO MENTION THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE FRONT EVEN THINKS ABOUT
GIVING US A VISIT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS SHOW TO PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY WITH SOME VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH BY THE MODELS. THE GFS
GOES GANG BUSTERS WITH THE FRONT AND BRINGS SUB-ADVISORY TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS A BIT QUIETER WITH
SUB-10KT WINDS FOR NOW WINDS WILL BE KEPT STRONGER THAN BLENDED
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW 20KTS FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE
PRESENTED BY THE GFS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE RIDGES TO THE LEFT TROFS TO THE
RIGHT AND ME STUCK IN THE MIDDLE WITH YOU AND FAIRLY BENIGN AND WARM
WEATHER. A FAIRLY DEEP LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP STRETCHING FROM LOWER
ALBERTA PROVINCE TO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 20KTS. THIS...ALONG WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...WILL WARM
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S LATE NEXT WEEK. ALDRICH

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51





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