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000
FXUS61 KLWX 040800 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP
OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA. THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NORTH OF THIS
TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO THUNDER TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW
QPF THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND
MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA
2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS
THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT
BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS
MAY REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
   ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 040800 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP
OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA. THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NORTH OF THIS
TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO THUNDER TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW
QPF THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND
MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA
2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS
THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT
BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS
MAY REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
   ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA.
THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH
THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NORTH OF THIS TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO
THUNDER TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW
QPF THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND
MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA
2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS
THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT
BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS
MAY REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
   ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN
TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...AREA OF 1010MB MSLP OVER WV WITH ANOTHER OVER SERN VA.
THESE ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS LIFTED NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT FROM NC. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO AROUND DC TODAY WITH
THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NORTH OF THIS TRACK/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE STABLE/NO
THUNDER TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AT BEST. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COMING FROM WV WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH MOST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORIAL POPS FOR LOW
QPF THROUGH MID MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ARC FROM ROUGHLY CUMBERLAND
MD TO DC AND SOUTH. THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHUNTED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNSET/FIREWORKS TIME.

BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH FROM THE FRONT/LOW. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 70S
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND LOW 80S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUNNY WITH A LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF
THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD
IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA
2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW ACROSS
THE DC METROS TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR
CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SCT TSTMS DC AND
SOUTH. PATCHY FOG IN TYPICAL SPOTS TONIGHT...THEN VFR SUNDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SELY FLOW THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTING OVER SRN MD WATERS. SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
HAZARDS TONIGHT/SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT
BUT STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS
MAY REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ017-
     018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
   ANZ541. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 040004
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
804 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE SURFACE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...CAUSING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
FORCING ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY INCREASES DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR WILL BE IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC. A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM DEVELOPING...THEREFORE ANY FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND FORCING DISSIPATES IN THE LOWER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH/WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY OF VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND WHERE CLOUDS AND A COOL NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WARMER AIR
IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF
THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. VSBYS
WILL REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BR. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBVFR CIGS MAY BE TOUGH TO ERODE DUE TO A
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO AND KMRB.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUBVFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE
BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN 8 KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP
UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/NORTHERN MARYLAND
OVERNIGHT. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT DUE TO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME...CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
TIDE WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM BALTIMORE TO ST MARYS
COUNTY AND ALSO ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER IN WASHINGTON
DC AND ALEXANDRIA. THE MINOR FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO SENSITIVE AREAS.

ANOMALIES SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ532-
     533-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ535-538.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...BJL/CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...BJL/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040004
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
804 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL OVERRUN THE SURFACE COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...CAUSING PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
FORCING ALONG THE 850MB BOUNDARY INCREASES DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO OCCUR WILL BE IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC. A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
PREVENT TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM DEVELOPING...THEREFORE ANY FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL EMERGE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND FORCING DISSIPATES IN THE LOWER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH/WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY OF VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS...MUCH OF THE TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND WHERE CLOUDS AND A COOL NORTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE WARMER AIR
IS EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF
THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. VSBYS
WILL REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS IN SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BR. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBVFR CIGS MAY BE TOUGH TO ERODE DUE TO A
NORTHEAST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO AND KMRB.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUBVFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE
BEST CHC OF SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN 8 KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP
UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY/NORTHERN MARYLAND
OVERNIGHT. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL OF ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT DUE TO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME...CURRENT
FEELING IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH
TIDE WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DURING THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR SENSITIVE AREAS
ALONG THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM BALTIMORE TO ST MARYS
COUNTY AND ALSO ALONG THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER IN WASHINGTON
DC AND ALEXANDRIA. THE MINOR FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY MORNING AND CONFINED MAINLY TO SENSITIVE AREAS.

ANOMALIES SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ011-014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     MDZ017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ532-
     533-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ535-538.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...BJL/RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...BJL/CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...BJL/RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL





000
FXUS61 KLWX 031908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDERS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE BORDERS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND THE BORDERS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...FINALLY TERMINATING IN OKLAHOMA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES.

MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS LOW AS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA AND
HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAN WHAT YOU
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IN JULY...BUT THE RESULTS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS DRY SLOT WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY...FORCING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS TO POP
BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS
COMPARED TO WINTER...AND THE UNUSUAL DYNAMICS FOR JULY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT ENOUGH STABILITY APPEARS
PRESENT TO PREVENT ANY SORT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME GUIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND SOME MODELING SOLUTIONS IN
FACT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE DRY SLOT LATER ON CAUSING THEM TO
MISS OUT. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WHILE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S THANKS TO
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER
TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS IF PATCHY FOG
FORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE BEST CHC OF
SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 8
KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY
ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORE. AT THIS TIME THINK LEVELS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOOD...BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NECESSARY WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN PROJECTED WATER LEVELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDERS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE BORDERS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND THE BORDERS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...FINALLY TERMINATING IN OKLAHOMA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES.

MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS LOW AS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA AND
HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAN WHAT YOU
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IN JULY...BUT THE RESULTS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS DRY SLOT WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY...FORCING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS TO POP
BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS
COMPARED TO WINTER...AND THE UNUSUAL DYNAMICS FOR JULY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT ENOUGH STABILITY APPEARS
PRESENT TO PREVENT ANY SORT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME GUIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND SOME MODELING SOLUTIONS IN
FACT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE DRY SLOT LATER ON CAUSING THEM TO
MISS OUT. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WHILE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S THANKS TO
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER
TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS IF PATCHY FOG
FORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE BEST CHC OF
SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 8
KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY
ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORE. AT THIS TIME THINK LEVELS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOOD...BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NECESSARY WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN PROJECTED WATER LEVELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 031908
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA AND HEAD
EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER IN THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BORDERS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...STRETCHING WEST ALONG THE BORDERS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...AND THE BORDERS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...FINALLY TERMINATING IN OKLAHOMA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES.

MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS LOW AS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER VIRGINIA AND
HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY MORE OF A WINTER-LIKE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAN WHAT YOU
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IN JULY...BUT THE RESULTS WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR...WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS DRY SLOT WITH
LINGERING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SATURDAY...FORCING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SHOWERS TO POP
BACK UP ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS
COMPARED TO WINTER...AND THE UNUSUAL DYNAMICS FOR JULY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY...BUT ENOUGH STABILITY APPEARS
PRESENT TO PREVENT ANY SORT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE ARE HINTS IN SOME GUIDANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND SOME MODELING SOLUTIONS IN
FACT INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE DRY SLOT LATER ON CAUSING THEM TO
MISS OUT. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES
UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS...WHILE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 70S THANKS TO
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...AND SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER
TROUGH MAY STILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IMPROVING...BUT IF THERE IS CLEARING LATE SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER WILL BE MINIMAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SFC UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT. LOW PRESSURE RIDING THE
FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 12Z SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY
THE FRONT ALIGNS...A STRAY SHOWER OR TSTM COULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH THE CHC
POPS FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING...12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
INDICATING RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW PROGRESSION
OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
STILL UNSURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PCPN WILL PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SFC BOUNDARIES LOOKING TO LINGER FURTHER SOUTH...AND NOT
PUSHING NORTH TILL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. 850MB
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 13-14C...WITH MOST OF THE AREA PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. DEW PTS GENERALLY HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERATED TO RESULT IN
THUNDER...WHEREVER ANY CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LACK OF
SHEAR SHOULD KEEP TSTMS BELOW SVR LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OPENING UP AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER
MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TROUGH ON NORTHERN TRACK MOVES EASTWARD.
NEXT TROUGH TO AFFECT REGION FRIDAY. AREAS OF WEAK TO MODERATE PVA
PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER REGION WILL SLOWLY FILL THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING.
DYNAMICS SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH
DRYING OVERNIGHT. MORE DEVELOPMENT DUE AS A FRONT FROM THE WEST
CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS IF PATCHY FOG
FORMS IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

MVFR CIGS PSBL INITIALLY SUN MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY. KCHO HAS THE BEST CHC OF
SEEING ANY PCPN SUN-SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 8
KTS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY WINDS UP TO LOW-
END SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN
CONCERN IS LOWERED VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT FLOW SUN-SUN
NIGHT...KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SUN NIGHT...THOUGH WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON VSBY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SLOWLY
ENOUGH AND BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP
ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SHORE. AT THIS TIME THINK LEVELS WILL STAY JUST
BELOW MINOR FLOOD...BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NECESSARY WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN PROJECTED WATER LEVELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...SEARS/RCM
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/SEARS/RCM
MARINE...CEM/SEARS/RCM
HYDROLOGY...RCM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 031424
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 13Z...STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTH CAROLINA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOG IS
DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME SO THOUGHTS OF AN ADVISORY NO LONGER
NECESSARY.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ERN EXTENT OF PREFRONTAL
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN VA WILL SHIFT NE INTO SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING. RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSTMS ROUGHLY KCHO AND S/W. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD (AS WELL AS RAIN IN SWRN HALF OF
CWA). LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
METRO...SO NUDGED HIGHS UP A SMIDGE AND CUT THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING. ALSO...GIVEN MORNING
SUN...DECREASED SKY COVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LATE
ARRIVING SYSTEM FINALLY RESULTS IN A BROAD INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW CENTER DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE INSTABILITY/TSTM
THREAT AS WELL AS BE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NUDGED POPS UP
AGAIN WITH CATEGORICAL INTO THE METRO. QPF GENERALLY A QUARTER
INCH TO AN INCH.

FOURTH OF JULY...WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST TO THE BAY IN THE MORNING WITH
TRAILING FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF FRONTAL
FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN...SO LIKELIES AS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE.
CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST HOWEVER...SO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT...WITH 70S COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z SUN...SFC LP PROGGED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND AWAY FROM ANY PRECIP AFTER 0Z...SO NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE...WITH PRECIP TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AFTER ABOUT 1Z IN THE METRO. ANY ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE
EARLY. WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY OF FOG.

ONCE RAIN PULLS AWAY...EXPECTING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN L80S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NEAR OUR
AREA. FIRST WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUN OR EARLY MON...BRINGING WITH IT
A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR OUR AREA. NEXT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CF APPROACH THE AREA AROUND WED AND IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/COMPACT. WHILE TSTMS ARE FORECAST NEARLY EACH
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW...ATM NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
ORGANIZED.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO NORMS. THERE IS A HINT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO AOA CLIMO NORMS. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING IS
DISSIPATING. HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE DC METROS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEST
TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF DC METROS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE CHCS FOR PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS. NEXT AVIATION CONCERNS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS
CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS...WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC. SCA FOR
SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES WITH SLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED
TO MONITOR FOR TSTMS...AS ISO TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHCS MON AND WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/MSE/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 031424
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 13Z...STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTH CAROLINA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOG IS
DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME SO THOUGHTS OF AN ADVISORY NO LONGER
NECESSARY.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ERN EXTENT OF PREFRONTAL
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN VA WILL SHIFT NE INTO SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING. RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSTMS ROUGHLY KCHO AND S/W. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD (AS WELL AS RAIN IN SWRN HALF OF
CWA). LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
METRO...SO NUDGED HIGHS UP A SMIDGE AND CUT THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING. ALSO...GIVEN MORNING
SUN...DECREASED SKY COVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LATE
ARRIVING SYSTEM FINALLY RESULTS IN A BROAD INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW CENTER DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE INSTABILITY/TSTM
THREAT AS WELL AS BE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NUDGED POPS UP
AGAIN WITH CATEGORICAL INTO THE METRO. QPF GENERALLY A QUARTER
INCH TO AN INCH.

FOURTH OF JULY...WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST TO THE BAY IN THE MORNING WITH
TRAILING FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF FRONTAL
FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN...SO LIKELIES AS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE.
CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST HOWEVER...SO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT...WITH 70S COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z SUN...SFC LP PROGGED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND AWAY FROM ANY PRECIP AFTER 0Z...SO NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE...WITH PRECIP TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AFTER ABOUT 1Z IN THE METRO. ANY ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE
EARLY. WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY OF FOG.

ONCE RAIN PULLS AWAY...EXPECTING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN L80S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NEAR OUR
AREA. FIRST WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUN OR EARLY MON...BRINGING WITH IT
A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR OUR AREA. NEXT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CF APPROACH THE AREA AROUND WED AND IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/COMPACT. WHILE TSTMS ARE FORECAST NEARLY EACH
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW...ATM NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
ORGANIZED.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO NORMS. THERE IS A HINT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO AOA CLIMO NORMS. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING IS
DISSIPATING. HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE DC METROS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEST
TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF DC METROS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE CHCS FOR PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS. NEXT AVIATION CONCERNS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS
CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS...WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC. SCA FOR
SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES WITH SLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED
TO MONITOR FOR TSTMS...AS ISO TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHCS MON AND WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/MSE/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031424
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 13Z...STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTH CAROLINA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOG IS
DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME SO THOUGHTS OF AN ADVISORY NO LONGER
NECESSARY.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ERN EXTENT OF PREFRONTAL
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN VA WILL SHIFT NE INTO SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING. RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSTMS ROUGHLY KCHO AND S/W. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD (AS WELL AS RAIN IN SWRN HALF OF
CWA). LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
METRO...SO NUDGED HIGHS UP A SMIDGE AND CUT THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING. ALSO...GIVEN MORNING
SUN...DECREASED SKY COVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LATE
ARRIVING SYSTEM FINALLY RESULTS IN A BROAD INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW CENTER DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE INSTABILITY/TSTM
THREAT AS WELL AS BE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NUDGED POPS UP
AGAIN WITH CATEGORICAL INTO THE METRO. QPF GENERALLY A QUARTER
INCH TO AN INCH.

FOURTH OF JULY...WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST TO THE BAY IN THE MORNING WITH
TRAILING FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF FRONTAL
FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN...SO LIKELIES AS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE.
CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST HOWEVER...SO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT...WITH 70S COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z SUN...SFC LP PROGGED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND AWAY FROM ANY PRECIP AFTER 0Z...SO NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE...WITH PRECIP TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AFTER ABOUT 1Z IN THE METRO. ANY ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE
EARLY. WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY OF FOG.

ONCE RAIN PULLS AWAY...EXPECTING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN L80S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NEAR OUR
AREA. FIRST WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUN OR EARLY MON...BRINGING WITH IT
A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR OUR AREA. NEXT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CF APPROACH THE AREA AROUND WED AND IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/COMPACT. WHILE TSTMS ARE FORECAST NEARLY EACH
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW...ATM NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
ORGANIZED.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO NORMS. THERE IS A HINT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO AOA CLIMO NORMS. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING IS
DISSIPATING. HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE DC METROS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEST
TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF DC METROS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE CHCS FOR PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS. NEXT AVIATION CONCERNS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS
CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS...WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC. SCA FOR
SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES WITH SLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED
TO MONITOR FOR TSTMS...AS ISO TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHCS MON AND WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/MSE/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031424
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1024 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 13Z...STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTH CAROLINA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOG IS
DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME SO THOUGHTS OF AN ADVISORY NO LONGER
NECESSARY.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ERN EXTENT OF PREFRONTAL
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN VA WILL SHIFT NE INTO SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING. RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSTMS ROUGHLY KCHO AND S/W. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD (AS WELL AS RAIN IN SWRN HALF OF
CWA). LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
METRO...SO NUDGED HIGHS UP A SMIDGE AND CUT THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING. ALSO...GIVEN MORNING
SUN...DECREASED SKY COVER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LATE
ARRIVING SYSTEM FINALLY RESULTS IN A BROAD INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW CENTER DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE INSTABILITY/TSTM
THREAT AS WELL AS BE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NUDGED POPS UP
AGAIN WITH CATEGORICAL INTO THE METRO. QPF GENERALLY A QUARTER
INCH TO AN INCH.

FOURTH OF JULY...WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST TO THE BAY IN THE MORNING WITH
TRAILING FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF FRONTAL
FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN...SO LIKELIES AS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE.
CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST HOWEVER...SO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT...WITH 70S COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z SUN...SFC LP PROGGED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND AWAY FROM ANY PRECIP AFTER 0Z...SO NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE...WITH PRECIP TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AFTER ABOUT 1Z IN THE METRO. ANY ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE
EARLY. WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY OF FOG.

ONCE RAIN PULLS AWAY...EXPECTING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN L80S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NEAR OUR
AREA. FIRST WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUN OR EARLY MON...BRINGING WITH IT
A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR OUR AREA. NEXT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CF APPROACH THE AREA AROUND WED AND IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/COMPACT. WHILE TSTMS ARE FORECAST NEARLY EACH
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW...ATM NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
ORGANIZED.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO NORMS. THERE IS A HINT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO AOA CLIMO NORMS. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING IS
DISSIPATING. HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE DC METROS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEST
TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF DC METROS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE CHCS FOR PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS. NEXT AVIATION CONCERNS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS
CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS...WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC. SCA FOR
SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES WITH SLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED
TO MONITOR FOR TSTMS...AS ISO TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHCS MON AND WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/MSE/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 031343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
943 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 13Z...STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTH CAROLINA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOG IS
DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME SO THOUGHTS OF AN ADVISORY NO LONGER
NECESSARY.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ERN EXTENT OF PREFRONTAL
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN VA WILL SHIFT NE INTO SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING. RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSTMS ROUGHLY KCHO AND S/W. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD (AS WELL AS RAIN IN SWRN HALF OF
CWA). LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
METRO...SO NUDGED HIGHS UP A SMIDGE AND CUT THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW CENTER DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE INSTABILITY/TSTM
THREAT AS WELL AS BE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NUDGED POPS UP
AGAIN WITH CATEGORICAL INTO THE METRO. QPF GENERALLY A QUARTER
INCH TO AN INCH.

FOURTH OF JULY...WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST TO THE BAY IN THE MORNING WITH
TRAILING FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF FRONTAL
FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN...SO LIKELIES AS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE.
CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST HOWEVER...SO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT...WITH 70S COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z SUN...SFC LP PROGGED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND AWAY FROM ANY PRECIP AFTER 0Z...SO NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE...WITH PRECIP TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AFTER ABOUT 1Z IN THE METRO. ANY ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE
EARLY. WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY OF FOG.

ONCE RAIN PULLS AWAY...EXPECTING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN L80S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NEAR OUR
AREA. FIRST WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUN OR EARLY MON...BRINGING WITH IT
A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR OUR AREA. NEXT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CF APPROACH THE AREA AROUND WED AND IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/COMPACT. WHILE TSTMS ARE FORECAST NEARLY EACH
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW...ATM NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
ORGANIZED.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO NORMS. THERE IS A HINT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO AOA CLIMO NORMS. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING IS
DISSIPATING. HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE DC METROS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEST
TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF DC METROS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE CHCS FOR PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS. NEXT AVIATION CONCERNS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS
CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS...WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC. SCA FOR
SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES WITH SLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED
TO MONITOR FOR TSTMS...AS ISO TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHCS MON AND WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/MSE/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 031343
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
943 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 13Z...STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTH CAROLINA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FOG IS
DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME SO THOUGHTS OF AN ADVISORY NO LONGER
NECESSARY.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ERN EXTENT OF PREFRONTAL
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN VA WILL SHIFT NE INTO SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING. RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSTMS ROUGHLY KCHO AND S/W. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD (AS WELL AS RAIN IN SWRN HALF OF
CWA). LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE
METRO...SO NUDGED HIGHS UP A SMIDGE AND CUT THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW CENTER DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE INSTABILITY/TSTM
THREAT AS WELL AS BE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NUDGED POPS UP
AGAIN WITH CATEGORICAL INTO THE METRO. QPF GENERALLY A QUARTER
INCH TO AN INCH.

FOURTH OF JULY...WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST TO THE BAY IN THE MORNING WITH
TRAILING FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF FRONTAL
FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN...SO LIKELIES AS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE.
CLOUDS LOOK TO PERSIST HOWEVER...SO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A
BIT...WITH 70S COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z SUN...SFC LP PROGGED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND AWAY FROM ANY PRECIP AFTER 0Z...SO NUDGED
POPS DOWN A BIT MORE...WITH PRECIP TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST
AFTER ABOUT 1Z IN THE METRO. ANY ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD BE
EARLY. WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL
NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBILITY OF FOG.

ONCE RAIN PULLS AWAY...EXPECTING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN L80S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NEAR OUR
AREA. FIRST WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUN OR EARLY MON...BRINGING WITH IT
A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR OUR AREA. NEXT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CF APPROACH THE AREA AROUND WED AND IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/COMPACT. WHILE TSTMS ARE FORECAST NEARLY EACH
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW...ATM NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
ORGANIZED.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO NORMS. THERE IS A HINT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO AOA CLIMO NORMS. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING IS
DISSIPATING. HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE
FRONT DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE DC METROS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE IFR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEST
TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF DC METROS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE CHCS FOR PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS. NEXT AVIATION CONCERNS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS
CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS...WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC. SCA FOR
SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES WITH SLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED
TO MONITOR FOR TSTMS...AS ISO TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHCS MON AND WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-536-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE/RCM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/MSE/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030802
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER NC. CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP WITH THICKER FOG IN VALLEYS AND ON THE PIEDMONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEFORE SUNRISE
AS NECESSARY.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ERN EXTENT OF PREFRONTAL
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN VA WILL SHIFT NE INTO SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING. RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSTMS ROUGHLY KCHO AND S/W. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD (AS WELL AS RAIN IN SWRN HALF OF
CWA)...EXPECT MID TO UPR 70S INLAND...AROUND 80F NEAR SHORE.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW CENTER DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE INSTABILITY/TSTM
THREAT AS WELL AS BE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. RAISED
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND WEST. QPF GENERALLY A
QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH.

FOURTH OF JULY...WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST TO THE BAY IN THE MORNING WITH
TRAILING FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF FRONTAL
FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN...SO LIKELIES AS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. MAX
TEMPS UPR 70S NW...LOW 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z SUN...SFC LP PROGGED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HAD
A HARD TIME REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER 03Z...AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND...WITH 4TH ACTIVITIES...ITS BETTER TO AT
LEAST PREPARE FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. SAME PHILOSOPHY WITH
THUNDER...THINK CHCS ARE VERY LOW FOR THUNDER TO LINGER BEYOND
00Z...BUT THOUGHT IT WAS AT LEAST WORTH KEEPING THROUGH 01Z FOR
THE LOW-END POSSIBILITY.

ONCE RAIN PULLS AWAY...EXPECTING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN L80S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NEAR OUR
AREA. FIRST WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUN OR EARLY MON...BRINGING WITH IT
A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR OUR AREA. NEXT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CF APPROACH THE AREA AROUND WED AND IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/COMPACT. WHILE TSTMS ARE FORECAST NEARLY EACH
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW...ATM NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
ORGANIZED.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO NORMS. THERE IS A HINT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO AOA CLIMO NORMS. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
GROUND AND SOME THICKER FOG IN PLACES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA REST OF THE NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING WITH SUNRISE.
THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE DC METROS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
BEST TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF DC METROS SATURDAY.

CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE CHCS FOR PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS. NEXT AVIATION CONCERNS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS
CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS...WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC. WILL RAISE
AN SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES WITH SLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED
TO MONITOR FOR TSTMS...AS ISO TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHCS MON AND WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030802
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 07Z...STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER NC. CLEAR
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP WITH THICKER FOG IN VALLEYS AND ON THE PIEDMONT. WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESS AND ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEFORE SUNRISE
AS NECESSARY.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...LIFTING
THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ERN EXTENT OF PREFRONTAL
RAIN CURRENTLY OVER FAR WRN VA WILL SHIFT NE INTO SWRN ZONES LATER
THIS MORNING. RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED TSTMS ROUGHLY KCHO AND S/W. MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU FIELD (AS WELL AS RAIN IN SWRN HALF OF
CWA)...EXPECT MID TO UPR 70S INLAND...AROUND 80F NEAR SHORE.

TONIGHT...WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW CENTER DRIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE INSTABILITY/TSTM
THREAT AS WELL AS BE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. RAISED
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND WEST. QPF GENERALLY A
QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH.

FOURTH OF JULY...WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST TO THE BAY IN THE MORNING WITH
TRAILING FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. PLENTY OF FRONTAL
FORCING TO CAUSE RAIN...SO LIKELIES AS BACK IN THE FORECAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH BEST THUNDER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. NWLY FLOW BEGINS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM NW TO SE. MAX
TEMPS UPR 70S NW...LOW 80S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BY 00Z SUN...SFC LP PROGGED TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HAD
A HARD TIME REMOVING POPS ENTIRELY UNTIL AFTER 03Z...AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND...WITH 4TH ACTIVITIES...ITS BETTER TO AT
LEAST PREPARE FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. SAME PHILOSOPHY WITH
THUNDER...THINK CHCS ARE VERY LOW FOR THUNDER TO LINGER BEYOND
00Z...BUT THOUGHT IT WAS AT LEAST WORTH KEEPING THROUGH 01Z FOR
THE LOW-END POSSIBILITY.

ONCE RAIN PULLS AWAY...EXPECTING A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY SUN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW.
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE IN L80S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NEAR OUR
AREA. FIRST WAVE APPROACHES LATE SUN OR EARLY MON...BRINGING WITH IT
A CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW TRACKS NEAR OUR AREA. NEXT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED CF APPROACH THE AREA AROUND WED AND IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/COMPACT. WHILE TSTMS ARE FORECAST NEARLY EACH
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW...ATM NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE VERY
ORGANIZED.

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY MID-WEEK WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMO NORMS. THERE IS A HINT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPS
SLOWLY INCREASING TO AOA CLIMO NORMS. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY REMAINING AOB 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED
GROUND AND SOME THICKER FOG IN PLACES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA REST OF THE NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING WITH SUNRISE.
THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE DC METROS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS IN LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
BEST TSTM CHANCES SOUTH OF DC METROS SATURDAY.

CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LITTLE CHCS FOR PRECIP AT THE TERMINALS. NEXT AVIATION CONCERNS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND BRINGS
CHCS FOR SHWRS/TSTMS. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR TSTMS...WITH
VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NC. WILL RAISE
AN SCA FOR SRN MD WATERS SATURDAY MORNING AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES WITH SLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. ISOLATED GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE ADVISED
TO MONITOR FOR TSTMS...AS ISO TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EACH
DAY...WITH THE BEST CHCS MON AND WED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 030202 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1002 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO TURN OUT DRY ALONG WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...MORE HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE
OVERRUNNING WILL BE DEEPEST. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND SATURATED
SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY
GETS AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO W AND
SW...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN
WILL FALL AT A SLOW ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WENT ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD KCHO
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS KBWI AND KMTN IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND/OR
LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INDICATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT...TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE
WATERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEIR MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/ADS/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030202 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1002 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO TURN OUT DRY ALONG WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...MORE HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE
OVERRUNNING WILL BE DEEPEST. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND SATURATED
SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY
GETS AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO W AND
SW...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN
WILL FALL AT A SLOW ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WENT ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD KCHO
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS KBWI AND KMTN IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND/OR
LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INDICATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT...TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE
WATERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEIR MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/ADS/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030202 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1002 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO TURN OUT DRY ALONG WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...MORE HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE
OVERRUNNING WILL BE DEEPEST. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE DUE TO BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND SATURATED
SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY
GETS AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO W AND
SW...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN
WILL FALL AT A SLOW ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WENT ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD KCHO
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS KBWI AND KMTN IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND/OR
LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INDICATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT...TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE
WATERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEIR MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/ADS/KRW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 030005
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
805 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO TURN OUT DRY ALONG WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...MORE HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE OVERRUNNING
WILL BE DEEPEST. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY
GETS AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO W AND
SW...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN
WILL FALL AT A SLOW ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WENT ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD KCHO
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS KBWI AND KMTN IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND/OR
LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INDICATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT...TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE
WATERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEIR MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/KRW
MARINE...BJL/ADS/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030005
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
805 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO TURN OUT DRY ALONG WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...MORE HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE OVERRUNNING
WILL BE DEEPEST. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY
GETS AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO W AND
SW...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN
WILL FALL AT A SLOW ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WENT ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD KCHO
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS KBWI AND KMTN IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND/OR
LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INDICATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT...TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE
WATERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEIR MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/KRW
MARINE...BJL/ADS/KRW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 030005
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
805 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO TURN OUT DRY ALONG WITH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. AS THIS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...MORE HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING WILL
ALSO INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHERE OVERRUNNING
WILL BE DEEPEST. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
ON FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY
GETS AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO W AND
SW...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN
WILL FALL AT A SLOW ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WENT ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD KCHO
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS KBWI AND KMTN IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND/OR
LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS INDICATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
TONIGHT...TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE
WATERS...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEIR MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/KRW
MARINE...BJL/ADS/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED AT THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA...IF NOT FARTHER...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE CONDUIT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR
TERM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF A VORT MAX IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. THESE WILL SKIRT SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE INSTBY HAS BUILT WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDER TO BE RATHER LIMITED IN
OUR CWA. ORANGE-ST. MARYS SEEING A FEW SUN BREAKS AND ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF INSTBY GRADIENT...SO PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE THERE.
FARTHER NORTH...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED.

EXPECT SOME DOWNTURN TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER THE VORT MAX PASSES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID NOT WANT TO GO
COMPLETELY DRY AS ANY IMPULSE COULD SPARK A SHOWER IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER IT/S PLAUSIBLE THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT AT THIS
TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...WITH LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON
FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY GETS
AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO SW...BUT
THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE STABLE SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN WILL FALL AT A SLOW
ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WENT ON COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. CHO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. ANY PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN COULD
BRING MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. TOUGH TO TIME THESE OUT NOW.
THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS INDICATED...BUT IFR IS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE N/E QUADRANT.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE WATERS. THEIR
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE
ISOLATED...RELEGATED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND MOST LIKELY
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED AT THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA...IF NOT FARTHER...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE CONDUIT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR
TERM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF A VORT MAX IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. THESE WILL SKIRT SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE INSTBY HAS BUILT WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDER TO BE RATHER LIMITED IN
OUR CWA. ORANGE-ST. MARYS SEEING A FEW SUN BREAKS AND ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF INSTBY GRADIENT...SO PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE THERE.
FARTHER NORTH...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED.

EXPECT SOME DOWNTURN TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER THE VORT MAX PASSES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID NOT WANT TO GO
COMPLETELY DRY AS ANY IMPULSE COULD SPARK A SHOWER IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER IT/S PLAUSIBLE THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT AT THIS
TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...WITH LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON
FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY GETS
AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO SW...BUT
THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE STABLE SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN WILL FALL AT A SLOW
ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WENT ON COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. CHO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. ANY PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN COULD
BRING MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. TOUGH TO TIME THESE OUT NOW.
THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS INDICATED...BUT IFR IS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE N/E QUADRANT.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE WATERS. THEIR
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE
ISOLATED...RELEGATED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND MOST LIKELY
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KRW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 021939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED AT THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA...IF NOT FARTHER...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE CONDUIT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR
TERM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF A VORT MAX IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. THESE WILL SKIRT SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE INSTBY HAS BUILT WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDER TO BE RATHER LIMITED IN
OUR CWA. ORANGE-ST. MARYS SEEING A FEW SUN BREAKS AND ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF INSTBY GRADIENT...SO PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE THERE.
FARTHER NORTH...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED.

EXPECT SOME DOWNTURN TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER THE VORT MAX PASSES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID NOT WANT TO GO
COMPLETELY DRY AS ANY IMPULSE COULD SPARK A SHOWER IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER IT/S PLAUSIBLE THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT AT THIS
TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...WITH LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON
FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY GETS
AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO SW...BUT
THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE STABLE SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN WILL FALL AT A SLOW
ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WENT ON COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. CHO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. ANY PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN COULD
BRING MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. TOUGH TO TIME THESE OUT NOW.
THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS INDICATED...BUT IFR IS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE N/E QUADRANT.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE WATERS. THEIR
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE
ISOLATED...RELEGATED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND MOST LIKELY
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KRW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 021939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LOCATED AT THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA...IF NOT FARTHER...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW
OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE CONDUIT OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR
TERM...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF A VORT MAX IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. THESE WILL SKIRT SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE INSTBY HAS BUILT WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE EXPECT THUNDER TO BE RATHER LIMITED IN
OUR CWA. ORANGE-ST. MARYS SEEING A FEW SUN BREAKS AND ON NORTHERN
EDGE OF INSTBY GRADIENT...SO PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE THERE.
FARTHER NORTH...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED.

EXPECT SOME DOWNTURN TO SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER THE VORT MAX PASSES
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID NOT WANT TO GO
COMPLETELY DRY AS ANY IMPULSE COULD SPARK A SHOWER IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER IT/S PLAUSIBLE THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS
OF THE AREA COULD BE DRY. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT AT THIS
TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DENSE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
MILD...WITH LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SE.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON
FRIDAY...IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
OUT OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE FROM MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR NORTH THE ACTIVITY GETS
AND WHETHER IT WILL BE IN ONE SLUG OR THE OFF/ON VARIETY.
THEREFORE HAVE A GRADIENT OF POPS FROM 40 TO 80 NE TO SW...BUT
THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED. WE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE STABLE SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED...ESPECIALLY
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. THINK THAT THE RAIN WILL FALL AT A SLOW
ENOUGH RATE TO LIMIT A FLOOD THREAT...BUT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
AND WET SOILS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WENT ON COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
WHICH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER AND MORE STABLE. HAVE
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
DURING SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN. BY TUESDAY FRONT RETURNS TO AREA AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFF DELMARVA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN MD AND VA
TIDEWATER. NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY AND SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. CHO HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE UNCERTAIN
COVERAGE FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. ANY PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN COULD
BRING MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. TOUGH TO TIME THESE OUT NOW.
THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
ADDITION...FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS INDICATED...BUT IFR IS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE N/E QUADRANT.

OVERCAST CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIELY IMPROVE
LATER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY. HOWEVER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE WATERS. THEIR
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO REDUCE VSBY...BUT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO BRING GUSTIER WINDS. EXPECT THESE TO BE
ISOLATED...RELEGATED TO AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND MOST LIKELY
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATERS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME BUT THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...ADS/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS STRETCHED EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
VA THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE LATE
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VORT MAX APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL BE TARGETED TO SOUTHERN AREAS. CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD LIMIT INSTBY...BUT BREAKS SEEN IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY MAY ALLOW POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTBY. WITH MOST OF
CWA ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WOULD NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HOWEVER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30 KT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTBY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. GIVEN WET SOILS
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR REPETITIVE STORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WITH PWATS AOA 1.5
INCHES. MAIN CHANGES WITH MORNING UPDATE INVOLVED ADJUSTING POPS
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN LATEST LAMP
TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE
CLOUDS.

PRECIP COVERAGE IN GREATER QUESTION TONIGHT...AS THERE MAY
BE A LULL AFTER DEPARTING WAVE...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT SINKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
WOULD APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY...AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING A MORE NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE WAVE
AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
HOW LONG IT LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALLOWING IT
TO PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH SO THAT THE REGION DRIES OUT...WHILE
OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT HIGHEST
POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DECENT PRECIPITATION
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT IS DEFINITELY OF NOTE AND IF THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS IN THE FUTURE...POPS MAY CERTAINLY END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FRIDAY WITH MANY AREAS FAILING
TO REACH 80...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOURTH OF JULY...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA (WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT) MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST.
CONSENSUS AMONG 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS FOR A MORNING LOW TO CROSS
SRN MD/WATERS WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. FELT THE LIKELY POPS
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WAS A BIT HIGH...SO WENT CHANCE MOST
PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST IN THE
PEAK HEATING...WENT LIKELIES FOR THE POTOMAC/ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY STRATO-CU AND ANY PRECIP...GENERALLY LOW 80S
(WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT A BIT OF A HEAT INDEX TO
THE MID 80S).

SATURDAY NIGHT...KEY FOR EVENING POP IS PROGRESSION OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND REMAINING INSTABILITY. THOSE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT
CURRENT BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

QUIET WX TUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING EASTERLY
BY TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AND VIS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD SEE THE THREAT FOR
LOWER VSBYS DECREASE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT CHO. EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...SOME HAZE
MAY LINGER WITH VSBYS 5-9 SM. FORECAST A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT IN REGARDS TO SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME STEADIER RAIN TO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS. TIMING AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION AND SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF DC METROS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. MORNING NELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AS LOW PASSES SRN MD.
DIURNALLY ISOLATED SUN/MON. QUIET WX TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND LOWER MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY.

WINDS MIGHT INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO DID NOT
ISSUE AN SCA JUST YET...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED.

WILL NEED TO WATCH A WEAK LOW PASS SRN MD SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NELY GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL
DAY/EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FRONT
DIPS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. QUIET TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ/RCM
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS STRETCHED EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
VA THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE LATE
THIS MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VORT MAX APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL BE TARGETED TO SOUTHERN AREAS. CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD LIMIT INSTBY...BUT BREAKS SEEN IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY MAY ALLOW POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTBY. WITH MOST OF
CWA ON NORTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WOULD NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HOWEVER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30 KT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS GIVEN
SUFFICIENT INSTBY...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. GIVEN WET SOILS
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR REPETITIVE STORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WITH PWATS AOA 1.5
INCHES. MAIN CHANGES WITH MORNING UPDATE INVOLVED ADJUSTING POPS
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO BLENDED IN LATEST LAMP
TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE
CLOUDS.

PRECIP COVERAGE IN GREATER QUESTION TONIGHT...AS THERE MAY
BE A LULL AFTER DEPARTING WAVE...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT SINKS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
WOULD APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY...AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING A MORE NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE WAVE
AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
HOW LONG IT LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALLOWING IT
TO PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH SO THAT THE REGION DRIES OUT...WHILE
OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT HIGHEST
POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DECENT PRECIPITATION
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT IS DEFINITELY OF NOTE AND IF THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS IN THE FUTURE...POPS MAY CERTAINLY END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FRIDAY WITH MANY AREAS FAILING
TO REACH 80...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOURTH OF JULY...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA (WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT) MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST.
CONSENSUS AMONG 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS FOR A MORNING LOW TO CROSS
SRN MD/WATERS WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. FELT THE LIKELY POPS
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WAS A BIT HIGH...SO WENT CHANCE MOST
PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST IN THE
PEAK HEATING...WENT LIKELIES FOR THE POTOMAC/ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY STRATO-CU AND ANY PRECIP...GENERALLY LOW 80S
(WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT A BIT OF A HEAT INDEX TO
THE MID 80S).

SATURDAY NIGHT...KEY FOR EVENING POP IS PROGRESSION OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND REMAINING INSTABILITY. THOSE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT
CURRENT BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

QUIET WX TUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING EASTERLY
BY TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AND VIS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS. THE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD SEE THE THREAT FOR
LOWER VSBYS DECREASE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT CHO. EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...SOME HAZE
MAY LINGER WITH VSBYS 5-9 SM. FORECAST A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
OVERNIGHT IN REGARDS TO SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AVIATION.

LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME STEADIER RAIN TO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS. TIMING AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION AND SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF DC METROS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. MORNING NELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AS LOW PASSES SRN MD.
DIURNALLY ISOLATED SUN/MON. QUIET WX TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND LOWER MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY.

WINDS MIGHT INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO DID NOT
ISSUE AN SCA JUST YET...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED.

WILL NEED TO WATCH A WEAK LOW PASS SRN MD SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NELY GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL
DAY/EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FRONT
DIPS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. QUIET TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ/RCM
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 020946
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
546 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW POINTS HAVE
LOWERED A BIT AS THE CANADIAN AIR HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED INTO THE
REGION. OF NOTE IS THAT MUCH OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITY (REDUCED AS
IN BELOW 10 MILES) BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION IS PROBABLY
DUE TO SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE ALSO PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD MOTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE IS IN QUESTION...WITH THE
MORE MESO-SCALE NAM AND RGEM KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF DC/BALTIMORE METRO CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
GENEROUS AND BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE METRO. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE GLOBALS ARE DOING A BETTER JOB...SO HAVE
ADDED LOW END LIKELY POPS TO A SWATH OF MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH OUR REGION BEING
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THINK THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY
ISOLATED WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING OF THE NON- THUNDERY TYPE. HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO BE LOWER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITAITON ACROSS THE AREA WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY...AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING A MORE NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE WAVE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW
LONG IT LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALLOWING IT TO
PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH SO THAT THE REGION DRIES OUT...WHILE OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DECENT PRECIPITATION
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT IS DEFINITELY OF NOTE AND IF THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS IN THE FUTURE...POPS MAY CERTAINLY END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FRIDAY WITH MANY AREAS FAILING
TO REACH 80...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOURTH OF JULY...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA (WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT) MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST.
CONSENSUS AMONG 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS FOR A MORNING LOW TO CROSS
SRN MD/WATERS WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. FELT THE LIKELY POPS
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WAS A BIT HIGH...SO WENT CHANCE MOST
PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST IN THE
PEAK HEATING...WENT LIKELIES FOR THE POTOMAC/ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY STRATO-CU AND ANY PRECIP...GENERALLY LOW 80S
(WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT A BIT OF A HEAT INDEX TO
THE MID 80S).

SATURDAY NIGHT...KEY FOR EVENING POP IS PROGRESSION OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND REMAINING INSTABILITY. THOSE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT
CURRENT BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

QUIET WX TUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING EASTERLY
BY TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AND VIS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
MVFR IN SHOWERS OR EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. NOTE THAT SOME
DIFFUSE WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
CAUSE OF THE SUB-10 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTS WE ARE SEEING AT MANY
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME STEADIER RAIN TO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS. TIMING AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION AND SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF DC METROS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. MORNING NELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AS LOW PASSES SRN MD.
DIURNALLY ISOLATED SUN/MON. QUIET WX TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS...BUT THINK THESE SHOULD
BE UNCOMMON.

WINDS MIGHT INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO DID NOT
ISSUE AN SCA JUST YET...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED.

WILL NEED TO WATCH A WEAK LOW PASS SRN MD SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NELY GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL
DAY/EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FRONT
DIPS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. QUIET TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ/RCM
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 020946
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
546 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW POINTS HAVE
LOWERED A BIT AS THE CANADIAN AIR HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED INTO THE
REGION. OF NOTE IS THAT MUCH OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITY (REDUCED AS
IN BELOW 10 MILES) BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION IS PROBABLY
DUE TO SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE ALSO PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD MOTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE IS IN QUESTION...WITH THE
MORE MESO-SCALE NAM AND RGEM KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF DC/BALTIMORE METRO CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
GENEROUS AND BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE METRO. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE GLOBALS ARE DOING A BETTER JOB...SO HAVE
ADDED LOW END LIKELY POPS TO A SWATH OF MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH OUR REGION BEING
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THINK THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY
ISOLATED WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING OF THE NON- THUNDERY TYPE. HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO BE LOWER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITAITON ACROSS THE AREA WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY...AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING A MORE NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE WAVE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW
LONG IT LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALLOWING IT TO
PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH SO THAT THE REGION DRIES OUT...WHILE OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DECENT PRECIPITATION
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT IS DEFINITELY OF NOTE AND IF THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS IN THE FUTURE...POPS MAY CERTAINLY END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FRIDAY WITH MANY AREAS FAILING
TO REACH 80...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOURTH OF JULY...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA (WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT) MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST.
CONSENSUS AMONG 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS FOR A MORNING LOW TO CROSS
SRN MD/WATERS WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. FELT THE LIKELY POPS
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WAS A BIT HIGH...SO WENT CHANCE MOST
PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST IN THE
PEAK HEATING...WENT LIKELIES FOR THE POTOMAC/ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY STRATO-CU AND ANY PRECIP...GENERALLY LOW 80S
(WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT A BIT OF A HEAT INDEX TO
THE MID 80S).

SATURDAY NIGHT...KEY FOR EVENING POP IS PROGRESSION OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND REMAINING INSTABILITY. THOSE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT
CURRENT BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

QUIET WX TUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING EASTERLY
BY TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AND VIS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
MVFR IN SHOWERS OR EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. NOTE THAT SOME
DIFFUSE WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
CAUSE OF THE SUB-10 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTS WE ARE SEEING AT MANY
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME STEADIER RAIN TO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS. TIMING AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION AND SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF DC METROS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. MORNING NELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AS LOW PASSES SRN MD.
DIURNALLY ISOLATED SUN/MON. QUIET WX TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS...BUT THINK THESE SHOULD
BE UNCOMMON.

WINDS MIGHT INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO DID NOT
ISSUE AN SCA JUST YET...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED.

WILL NEED TO WATCH A WEAK LOW PASS SRN MD SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NELY GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL
DAY/EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FRONT
DIPS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. QUIET TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ/RCM
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW POINTS HAVE
LOWERED A BIT AS THE CANADIAN AIR HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED INTO THE
REGION. OF NOTE IS THAT MUCH OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITY (REDUCED AS
IN BELOW 10 MILES) BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION IS PROBABLY
DUE TO SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE ALSO PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD MOTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE IS IN QUESTION...WITH THE
MORE MESO-SCALE NAM AND RGEM KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF DC/BALTIMORE METRO CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
GENEROUS AND BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE METRO. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT POPS IN THE METRO AREAS BELOW 50 PERCENT. THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH OUR REGION BEING
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THINK THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY
ISOLATED WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING OF THE NON- THUNDERY TYPE. HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO BE LOWER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITAITON ACROSS THE AREA WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY...AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING A MORE NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE WAVE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW
LONG IT LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALLOWING IT TO
PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH SO THAT THE REGION DRIES OUT...WHILE OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DECENT PRECIPITATION
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT IS DEFINITELY OF NOTE AND IF THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS IN THE FUTURE...POPS MAY CERTAINLY END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FRIDAY WITH MANY AREAS FAILING
TO REACH 80...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOURTH OF JULY...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA (WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT) MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST.
CONSENSUS AMONG 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS FOR A MORNING LOW TO CROSS
SRN MD/WATERS WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. FELT THE LIKELY POPS
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WAS A BIT HIGH...SO WENT CHANCE MOST
PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST IN THE
PEAK HEATING...WENT LIKELIES FOR THE POTOMAC/ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY STRATO-CU AND ANY PRECIP...GENERALLY LOW 80S
(WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT A BIT OF A HEAT INDEX TO
THE MID 80S).

SATURDAY NIGHT...KEY FOR EVENING POP IS PROGRESSION OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND REMAINING INSTABILITY. THOSE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT
CURRENT BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

QUIET WX TUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING EASTERLY
BY TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AND VIS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
MVFR IN SHOWERS OR EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. NOTE THAT SOME
DIFFUSE WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
CAUSE OF THE SUB-10 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTS WE ARE SEEING AT MANY
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME STEADIER RAIN TO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS. TIMING AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION AND SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF DC METROS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. MORNING NELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AS LOW PASSES SRN MD.
DIURNALLY ISOLATED SUN/MON. QUIET WX TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS...BUT THINK THESE SHOULD
BE UNCOMMON.

WINDS MIGHT INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO DID NOT
ISSUE AN SCA JUST YET...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED.

WILL NEED TO WATCH A WEAK LOW PASS SRN MD SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NELY GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL
DAY/EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FRONT
DIPS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. QUIET TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ/RCM
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 020800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW POINTS HAVE
LOWERED A BIT AS THE CANADIAN AIR HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED INTO THE
REGION. OF NOTE IS THAT MUCH OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITY (REDUCED AS
IN BELOW 10 MILES) BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION IS PROBABLY
DUE TO SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE ALSO PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD MOTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE IS IN QUESTION...WITH THE
MORE MESO-SCALE NAM AND RGEM KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF DC/BALTIMORE METRO CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
GENEROUS AND BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE METRO. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT POPS IN THE METRO AREAS BELOW 50 PERCENT. THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH OUR REGION BEING
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THINK THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY
ISOLATED WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING OF THE NON- THUNDERY TYPE. HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO BE LOWER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITAITON ACROSS THE AREA WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY...AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING A MORE NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE WAVE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW
LONG IT LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALLOWING IT TO
PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH SO THAT THE REGION DRIES OUT...WHILE OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DECENT PRECIPITATION
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT IS DEFINITELY OF NOTE AND IF THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS IN THE FUTURE...POPS MAY CERTAINLY END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FRIDAY WITH MANY AREAS FAILING
TO REACH 80...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOURTH OF JULY...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA (WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT) MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST.
CONSENSUS AMONG 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS FOR A MORNING LOW TO CROSS
SRN MD/WATERS WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. FELT THE LIKELY POPS
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WAS A BIT HIGH...SO WENT CHANCE MOST
PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST IN THE
PEAK HEATING...WENT LIKELIES FOR THE POTOMAC/ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY STRATO-CU AND ANY PRECIP...GENERALLY LOW 80S
(WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT A BIT OF A HEAT INDEX TO
THE MID 80S).

SATURDAY NIGHT...KEY FOR EVENING POP IS PROGRESSION OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND REMAINING INSTABILITY. THOSE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT
CURRENT BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

QUIET WX TUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING EASTERLY
BY TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AND VIS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
MVFR IN SHOWERS OR EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. NOTE THAT SOME
DIFFUSE WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
CAUSE OF THE SUB-10 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTS WE ARE SEEING AT MANY
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME STEADIER RAIN TO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS. TIMING AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION AND SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF DC METROS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. MORNING NELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AS LOW PASSES SRN MD.
DIURNALLY ISOLATED SUN/MON. QUIET WX TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS...BUT THINK THESE SHOULD
BE UNCOMMON.

WINDS MIGHT INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO DID NOT
ISSUE AN SCA JUST YET...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED.

WILL NEED TO WATCH A WEAK LOW PASS SRN MD SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NELY GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL
DAY/EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FRONT
DIPS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. QUIET TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ/RCM
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND THROUGH TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEW POINTS HAVE
LOWERED A BIT AS THE CANADIAN AIR HAS GRADUALLY PUSHED INTO THE
REGION. OF NOTE IS THAT MUCH OF THE REDUCED VISIBILITY (REDUCED AS
IN BELOW 10 MILES) BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION IS PROBABLY
DUE TO SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WHICH HAS WORKED ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.

MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ARE ALSO PROGGED TO
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
COUPLE OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT. THE EXACT AMOUNT OF NORTHWARD MOTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE IS IN QUESTION...WITH THE
MORE MESO-SCALE NAM AND RGEM KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
SOUTH OF DC/BALTIMORE METRO CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE
GENEROUS AND BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO THE METRO. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT POPS IN THE METRO AREAS BELOW 50 PERCENT. THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY...SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH OUR REGION BEING
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT THINK THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY
ISOLATED WITH MOST ACTIVITY BEING OF THE NON- THUNDERY TYPE. HIGHS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEW POINTS WILL
ALSO BE LOWER...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE COMMON. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING`S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITAITON ACROSS THE AREA WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY...AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING A MORE NOTABLE LOW PRESSURE WAVE AT
THE SURFACE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW
LONG IT LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE ALLOWING IT TO
PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH SO THAT THE REGION DRIES OUT...WHILE OTHER
MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW KEPT HIGHEST POPS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF DECENT PRECIPITATION
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT IS DEFINITELY OF NOTE AND IF THERE IS BETTER
CONSENSUS IN THE FUTURE...POPS MAY CERTAINLY END UP SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FRIDAY WITH MANY AREAS FAILING
TO REACH 80...WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

FOURTH OF JULY...STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE AREA (WITH
SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG IT) MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST.
CONSENSUS AMONG 00Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM IS FOR A MORNING LOW TO CROSS
SRN MD/WATERS WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHIFT
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. FELT THE LIKELY POPS
FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WAS A BIT HIGH...SO WENT CHANCE MOST
PLACES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE WEST IN THE
PEAK HEATING...WENT LIKELIES FOR THE POTOMAC/ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS.
MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY STRATO-CU AND ANY PRECIP...GENERALLY LOW 80S
(WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...EXPECT A BIT OF A HEAT INDEX TO
THE MID 80S).

SATURDAY NIGHT...KEY FOR EVENING POP IS PROGRESSION OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND REMAINING INSTABILITY. THOSE
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT
CURRENT BEST GUESS IS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE MIDWEST. ANY ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAY LOOK TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

QUIET WX TUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWS WITH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING SHIFTING EASTERLY
BY TONIGHT. VFR CIGS AND VIS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...POSSIBLY
MVFR IN SHOWERS OR EVEN VERY BRIEF IFR IN A HEAVIER SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED. NOTE THAT SOME
DIFFUSE WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY
CAUSE OF THE SUB-10 MILE VISIBILITY REPORTS WE ARE SEEING AT MANY
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME STEADIER RAIN TO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS/VIS. TIMING AND
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION AND SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH.

STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF DC METROS
SATURDAY...BEFORE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. MORNING NELY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT AS LOW PASSES SRN MD.
DIURNALLY ISOLATED SUN/MON. QUIET WX TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BELOW 10 KNOTS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO EASTERLY. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTIER WINDS...BUT THINK THESE SHOULD
BE UNCOMMON.

WINDS MIGHT INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO DID NOT
ISSUE AN SCA JUST YET...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED.

WILL NEED TO WATCH A WEAK LOW PASS SRN MD SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NELY GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALL
DAY/EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FRONT
DIPS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. QUIET TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ/RCM
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 020113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRAINED OVER
THE SAME AREAS...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A SMALL AREA JUST
SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT...INCLUDING ALEXANDRIA AND PORTIONS OF
PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SLID
OFF TO THE SOUTH SO CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW- MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM BR. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRAINED OVER
THE SAME AREAS...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A SMALL AREA JUST
SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT...INCLUDING ALEXANDRIA AND PORTIONS OF
PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SLID
OFF TO THE SOUTH SO CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW- MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM BR. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 020113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRAINED OVER
THE SAME AREAS...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A SMALL AREA JUST
SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT...INCLUDING ALEXANDRIA AND PORTIONS OF
PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SLID
OFF TO THE SOUTH SO CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW- MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM BR. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG
IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DC
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS TRAINED OVER
THE SAME AREAS...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAIN FOR A SMALL AREA JUST
SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT...INCLUDING ALEXANDRIA AND PORTIONS OF
PRINCE GEORGES AND FAIRFAX COUNTIES. THE BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SLID
OFF TO THE SOUTH SO CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LEFT POPS IN
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE AREAS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW- MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM BR. ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ATTM IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL
EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...BJL/KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...BJL/CEM/MSE/KRW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 011905
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE METRO
AREAS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE NAM-WRF CONTINUES TO HINT AT DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THE GFS NOT SO MUCH. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS DRIER AIR PUNCHING IN
ALOFT. ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE QUICK HITTING AND BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA. KEPT POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT GIVEN LIMITING
FACTORS IN PLACE.

ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL END AFTER SUNSET. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO THE 60S
IN MANY LOCATIONS...70S IN THE METRO AREAS.

COLD FRONT MAY STALL TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOCALES DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S WEST TO LOW-MID 80S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO WX LATE THU THROUGH SAT
MORNING...AS SUBTLE TO CONSIDERABLE (DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE YOU
CHOOSE) DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO TRACK AND
TIMING OF LP SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MADE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST...WITH CHCS FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS LATE THU AND TSTM CHCS FRI AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES RATHER ANEMIC...AND H5 WINDS AOB 20
KTS...SUGGEST ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE DISORGANIZED. TEMPS
APPEAR TO REMAIN REASONABLE WITH M/U 70S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN TRACK
PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK TO MODERATE PVA WILL AFFECT THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF WAVES WILL TRACK ALONG QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT LAYING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM KBWI-KDCA AND POINTS
SOUTH AND EAST ALTHOUGH TO UNCERTAIN TO ADD TO THE TAF. PATCHY FOG
IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO A FEW OF THE TAFS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS LATE THU THROUGH FRI REMAIN CHCS FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ATTM IT
IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THIS
ACTIVITY. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME BUT
GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED IN THE 10-15KT RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE WATERS BUT LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

MAIN MARINE CONCERNS LATE THU THROUGH FRI WOULD BE WITH ANY TSTM
ACTIVITY...AS WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
LIGHT (AOB 10 KTS) AND VARIABLE FLOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/MSE/KRW
MARINE...CEM/MSE/KRW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 011436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL ATTM. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOWER
80S TO THE WEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FROM KBWI AND KMTN TO KDCA AND KCHO. VFR TONIGHT...PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BELOW SCA EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/KRW
MARINE...RCM/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL ATTM. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOWER
80S TO THE WEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FROM KBWI AND KMTN TO KDCA AND KCHO. VFR TONIGHT...PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BELOW SCA EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/KRW
MARINE...RCM/KRW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 011436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL ATTM. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOWER
80S TO THE WEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FROM KBWI AND KMTN TO KDCA AND KCHO. VFR TONIGHT...PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BELOW SCA EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/KRW
MARINE...RCM/KRW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011436 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL ATTM. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOWER
80S TO THE WEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...REACHING
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL DRAW SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE FRONT OVER OUR REGION. STILL SOME TIMING/PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...BUT EXPECT A S TO N PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER (AT LEAST SOME INSTBY MAY BE
PRESENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN TIER). QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY
PRECIP REACHES THE M-D LINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS OVER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS...WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ABOUT THE PATH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS RIDING EAST ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
LIKE THE GFS BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EUROPEAN IN
CONTRAST IS NOTABLY SLOWER...WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WAITING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THE
CANADIAN GGEM IS EVEN SLOWER...HOLDING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW
BACK EVEN LONGER. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...SO KEPT CHANCE TO
LOW- END LIKELY POPS AND TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT TIMING DISCREPANCIES REGARDING
PASSING DISTURBANCES BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS MAKES ANY
ATTEMPT TO IRON OUT DETAILS VERY DIFFICULT. THE ONE CONSTANT IS
THE APPARENTLY NEVER LEAVING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. INHERITED
GENERALLY CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD AND DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES. TEMPS START OUT BELOW NORMAL AND *MAY* RISE TO NEAR
NORMAL IF THE FRONT CAN FINALLY NUDGE ITS WAY NORTH OF US EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FROM KBWI AND KMTN TO KDCA AND KCHO. VFR TONIGHT...PERHAPS SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY...WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT CHO.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD...MAIN CONCERN IS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AND
VIS FROM OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT
REMAINS STALLED IN THE GENERAL AREA. WITH THE FRONT NEARBY...WINDS
WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT WITH SIGNIFICANT CERTAINTY UNTIL THE
PERIOD DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BELOW SCA EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FOR MARINE IS OCCASIONAL HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERY
DAY FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SUB SCA BUT AS DISTURBANCES PASS THRU THE AREA...A PERIOD OF SCA
WINDS IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRW
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...ADS/RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/KRW
MARINE...RCM/KRW





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