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000
FXUS61 KLWX 020755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS IN/OH THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE PLUME IS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF A 500MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL AIDE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD DISSPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP
UP THIS MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD WV/VA TODAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ELEVATED DEWPTS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT TODAY. THE REGION OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SW WHERE THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK FIELD FIELD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH WILL FORM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CHES BAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO WEAK SE FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY MOVE EAST TODAY AND AREAS EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER MAY
STAY DRY ALL DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR I-95 TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND
THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY
CUT DOWN ON THE TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT MRB-CHO-IAD THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE HUMID AIRMASS HAS ALREADY LED TO 3-5SM IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO IAD-DCA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUB-VFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS IN/OH THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE PLUME IS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF A 500MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL AIDE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD DISSPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP
UP THIS MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD WV/VA TODAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ELEVATED DEWPTS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT TODAY. THE REGION OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SW WHERE THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK FIELD FIELD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH WILL FORM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CHES BAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO WEAK SE FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY MOVE EAST TODAY AND AREAS EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER MAY
STAY DRY ALL DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR I-95 TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND
THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY
CUT DOWN ON THE TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT MRB-CHO-IAD THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE HUMID AIRMASS HAS ALREADY LED TO 3-5SM IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO IAD-DCA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUB-VFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 020755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS IN/OH THIS MORNING. A MOISTURE PLUME IS ROUNDING
THE TOP OF A 500MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE SE CONUS.

THIN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL AIDE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG
SHOULD DISSPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY POP
UP THIS MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEARS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD WV/VA TODAY. THIS COUPLED
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ELEVATED DEWPTS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT TODAY. THE REGION OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ESPECIALLY THE SW WHERE THE BEST
FORCING FROM THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED. SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
DUE TO THE WEAK FIELD FIELD DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
HOWEVER...500-1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE IS EXPECTED EVEN WITH SOME
CLOUD COVER AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. FURTHER
EAST...A SFC TROUGH WILL FORM AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR/CHES BAY.
THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE DUE TO WEAK SE FLOW ALOFT. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AS THEY MOVE EAST TODAY AND AREAS EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER MAY
STAY DRY ALL DAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR I-95 TODAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NC TONIGHT AND ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DUE TO NO AIRMASS CHANGE...WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S AND MID 70S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...THE SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
AND BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST. NRLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM TUE/WED AND
THEREFORE THURSDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE UPSTREAM AND CLOUD COVER MAY
CUT DOWN ON THE TEMPS THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST MD LATE FRI AND MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. SCT SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI EVENING WITH ACTIVITY
LINGERING LONGER ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS QUICKLY LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SUN LEADING TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WHILE
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AEROSOL OPTICAL
DEPTH (AOD) OUTPUT FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATIVE FOR AEROSOL
PREDICTION MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (ICAP MME) SHOWS REMNANT SMOKE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLC FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY. SO...POTENTIAL FOR AIR QUALITY ISSUES OVER THE
WEEKEND UNDER STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT MRB-CHO-IAD THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT BUT THE HUMID AIRMASS HAS ALREADY LED TO 3-5SM IN
NEARBY LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SHRA/VCTS IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT MRB-CHO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY MOVE
INTO IAD-DCA BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND SUB-VFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN INTO
THURS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

BACKDOOR CFDNT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS.
RISK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT. ALSO...POTENTIAL FOR VISBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS AEROSOL MODELS SUGGEST SMOKE GETTING
SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION INTO THE MID-ATLC.
BUILDING HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION COULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS.

&&

.MARINE...A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT BELOW
10KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT WITH SHIFTING WINDS. WINDS
COULD APPROACH SCA CRITERIA FRI AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. REMNANT
SMOKE EXPECTED TO GET TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
COULD RESULT IN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...HAS/LFR
MARINE...HAS/LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 020136
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER. MOST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AT THIS HOUR BUT A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WANE.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING LOW
APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...THE VA PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
FAVORED LOCATION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME FAIRLY THICK HAZE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...WHICH IS ALSO RESULTING MINOR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IT COULD VERY WELL BE JUST AS HOT ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT WAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND FOG WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINTAINED OVERALL FORECAST CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND
FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE
AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN
IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD BE OBTAINED WED...BUT STILL
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 020136
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
936 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA THIS EVENING WITH
A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER. MOST CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AT THIS HOUR BUT A FEW
STRAY SHOWERS REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY WANE.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING LOW
APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...THE VA PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE
FAVORED LOCATION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME FAIRLY THICK HAZE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION...WHICH IS ALSO RESULTING MINOR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF IT COULD VERY WELL BE JUST AS HOT ON
WEDNESDAY AS IT WAS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND FOG WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINTAINED OVERALL FORECAST CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND
FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE
AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT- LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN
IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD BE OBTAINED WED...BUT STILL
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS/RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE/RCM
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011903
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS
CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA.
CONVECTION HAS FORMED WITH THE HELP OF LOCAL FEATURES...NAMELY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENYS AND BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER A COUPLE
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO FORMED IN CHARLES COUNTY WHERE THE ONSHORE
BREEZES FROM THE BAY AND THE POTOMAC CONVERGED. LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO
FOR THE MOST PART THESE WILL JUST PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. WHILE
THE INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS PULSED DOWN...THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR ISOLATED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SUN STARTS TO SET.
ELSEWHERE IT IS JUST HOT AS HEAT INDICES ARE REACHING THE MID 90S.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY FACTOR TONIGHT WILL
BE THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...THE VA
PIEDMONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BE THE FAVORED LOCATION. LOWS ONLY FALL TO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AND DIVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THE TRACK ISN/T MUCH DIFFERENT
THAN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST BUT IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION WILL BE A SOURCE OF LIFT...APPEARS THE MAIN VORT MAX
WILL JUST CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS THERE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT DC...AND ESPECIALLY
BALTIMORE...SEE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. MAY SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIMING DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FORCING.
INSTBY AND SHEAR ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO DO NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A SEVERE CONCERN. HIGHS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...BUT
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE STILL SUPPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z...SO HAVE
THE LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ENDING BY THEN. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THU...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA
LEAVING US IN REGION OF HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER IN A
STRING OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN U80S/L90S. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN M60S...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIP...AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AND
THERE IS LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY MOST OF THE TIME.

FRI...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES IN THE U80S/L90S...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE RELIEF BY FRIDAY...AS WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
NUDGES INTO THE AREA. CURRENT FRONTAL AND THUNDERSTORM TIMING OCCURS
EARLY ENOUGH THAT DAYTIME HIGHS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...GENERALLY IN M/U80S...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW-END SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN ADDITION TO A  WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT... MAINLY WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...HIGH
PRESS BUILDS IN ON SAT THROUGH TUE BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON TUE AFTN.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WKND...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL
MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE COULD PASS NEAR CHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SCT CU AROUND 5 KFT. MAINTAINED FORECAST
CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO FOG TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE NOT INCLUDED BR AT
IAD FOR NOW...BUT GROUND FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER PROB OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CHO WILL BE
THE MAIN TARGET...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE WITH NE
EXTENT (ESPECIALLY BALTIMORE AREA). ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE SHORT-
LIVED. MAY BE SOME FOG AGAIN IN PRONE LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER LIGHT/VRB WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...A MORE NW COMPONENT SHOULD
BE OBTAINED WED.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE NEAR ANY ACTIVITY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS
PSBL DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS BECOMING SW
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME W TO NW WED. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT MOST
OF THE TIME THROUGH WED NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS A
LITTLE BETTER POSSIBILITY ON WEDNESDAY...MORE SO OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE WATERS FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS/MSE
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...ADS/IMR/MSE
MARINE...ADS/IMR/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 011431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY ERODED. SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING MIDDAY. A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
STORM WITH THE HELP OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW CWA...BUT DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF CONSEQUENCE WITH THE RIDGING AND
POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BL. MORNING SOUNDING AND LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHS AOA 90F FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

UNDERNEATH THE RDG TNGT SKIES SHUD BE MOCLR AND WNDS LGT. DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 60S. THUS... PTTN SHUD FAVOR FOG DVLPMNT SINCE THERES NO
FEATURE THAT CUD BRING A MARINE LYR INLAND. WL HV PATCHY FOG ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA. MIN-T CLOSE TO GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MIDWEST H5 LOW SHUD BE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. THIS CUD
PROVIDE A MECHANISM FOR A SLGTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
TSRA DVLPMNT. FCST WL FEATURE SCT POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
TSRA. METRO BALT FURTHEST AWAY FM THIS FORCING FEATURE AND HAS
ONLY SCHC POPS. EMPHASIS WL BE ON MIDDAY-AFTN HRS.

THE S/WV WL BE SHEARING OUT AND HEADING SE WED EVNG. WL BE KEEPING
SOME LINGERING POPS...BUT GRDLY TAPERING CHCS OFF OVNGT. CAPE WASNT
HIGH TO START WITH AND WL BE DIMINISHING. THEREFORE HV TRANSITIONED
TSRA TO SHRA. ANY ADDTL PCPN SHUD BE MINIMAL.

TEMPS ON WED SHUD BE FAIRLY SIMLR TO TUE...AS NOT MUCH HAS CHGD
IN THE OVERALL PTTN BTWN THESE TWO DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NRLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
60S MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER TO THE NORTH AND SOME
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 90S
WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE SW SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT DIURNAL CU SHUD DVLP BY MIDDAY...BUT BASES 050-060 WL HV NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT...NOR WL LGT WNDS.

ANTHR FOG OPPORTUNITY COMES TNGT. WL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR
TIL CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE GROWS.

S/WV CROSSING TERMINALS WED WL PROVIDE A SLGTLY BETTER CHC AT TSRA.
SCT CVRG SO DIRECT HIT/TERMINAL IMPACTS STILL UNCERTAIN. BWI/MTN
SEEMS TO BE AWAY FROM PATH OF HIEST RISK. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PSBL W/IN ANY TSRA.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU-SAT. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
VRB FLOW AOB 10 KT ATTM. WNDS SHUDNT BE MUCH HIER THAN THAT TDA
OR THIS EVNG. ANTICIPATE FLOW BCMG ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN.

MAY BE A FEW TSRA CROSSING WATERS WED. LGT NWLY FLOW BHD S/WV.

A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 011431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING
WITH A WEAK LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY.
STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS NEARLY ERODED. SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP DURING MIDDAY. A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE A SHOWER OR
STORM WITH THE HELP OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SW CWA...BUT DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF CONSEQUENCE WITH THE RIDGING AND
POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BL. MORNING SOUNDING AND LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHS AOA 90F FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

UNDERNEATH THE RDG TNGT SKIES SHUD BE MOCLR AND WNDS LGT. DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 60S. THUS... PTTN SHUD FAVOR FOG DVLPMNT SINCE THERES NO
FEATURE THAT CUD BRING A MARINE LYR INLAND. WL HV PATCHY FOG ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA. MIN-T CLOSE TO GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MIDWEST H5 LOW SHUD BE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. THIS CUD
PROVIDE A MECHANISM FOR A SLGTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD
TSRA DVLPMNT. FCST WL FEATURE SCT POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
TSRA. METRO BALT FURTHEST AWAY FM THIS FORCING FEATURE AND HAS
ONLY SCHC POPS. EMPHASIS WL BE ON MIDDAY-AFTN HRS.

THE S/WV WL BE SHEARING OUT AND HEADING SE WED EVNG. WL BE KEEPING
SOME LINGERING POPS...BUT GRDLY TAPERING CHCS OFF OVNGT. CAPE WASNT
HIGH TO START WITH AND WL BE DIMINISHING. THEREFORE HV TRANSITIONED
TSRA TO SHRA. ANY ADDTL PCPN SHUD BE MINIMAL.

TEMPS ON WED SHUD BE FAIRLY SIMLR TO TUE...AS NOT MUCH HAS CHGD
IN THE OVERALL PTTN BTWN THESE TWO DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NRLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
60S MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER TO THE NORTH AND SOME
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 90S
WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE SW SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT DIURNAL CU SHUD DVLP BY MIDDAY...BUT BASES 050-060 WL HV NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT...NOR WL LGT WNDS.

ANTHR FOG OPPORTUNITY COMES TNGT. WL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR
TIL CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE GROWS.

S/WV CROSSING TERMINALS WED WL PROVIDE A SLGTLY BETTER CHC AT TSRA.
SCT CVRG SO DIRECT HIT/TERMINAL IMPACTS STILL UNCERTAIN. BWI/MTN
SEEMS TO BE AWAY FROM PATH OF HIEST RISK. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PSBL W/IN ANY TSRA.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU-SAT. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
VRB FLOW AOB 10 KT ATTM. WNDS SHUDNT BE MUCH HIER THAN THAT TDA
OR THIS EVNG. ANTICIPATE FLOW BCMG ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN.

MAY BE A FEW TSRA CROSSING WATERS WED. LGT NWLY FLOW BHD S/WV.

A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 010754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ANALYZED ACRS THE MID ATLC/SERN CONUS. HWVR WK LOPRES
INVOF HSE IS RESULTING IN LCL ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE STRATUS RAPIDLY
BCMG THE BIGGER ISSUE ACRS SERN VA...AND ITS CREEPING NWWD. ITS
ALREADY ENGULFED EZF/GVE/OMH/CJR. SUSPECT IT/LL MAKE FURTHER INROADS
ACRS THE PIEDMONT OF VA. ACRS PA FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM...AND IT
SEEMS AS THO THERE ARE PATCHES OF IT ACRS NRN MD AS WELL.

MESOSCALE GDNC PERFORMING BETTER THAN SYNOP MDLS IN TERMS OF
IDENTIFYING THE LLVL MSTR. HWVR...IT WASNT DELINIATING BTWN FOG/LOW
CLD VERY WELL...PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINITES AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE THE
SHIELD WL BECOME. AM CONCERNED THAT IT CUD REACH THE NRN VA DC
BURBS. IF IT DID...IT WUD HV BIG IMPLICATIONS ON THE FCST EVOLUTION
LATER TDA. FOR NOW AM HOLDING A RIBBON LOW CLD IN VA E OF THE BLURDG
UP TO ABT HEF. WL BE MONITORING OBS AND ADJUSTING GRIDS AS NEEDED.

THE SYNOP HGT PTTN FEATURES A RDG ACRS THE APLCNS/GRTLKS/MIDWEST.
THERES A WK CUTOFF H5 LOW IN/NEAR OH...WHICH SHUD STAY W OF AREA
TDA. THEREFORE...MAIN FORCING WL COME FM TRRN CICRULATIONS...AS
INSTBY/SHEAR MINIMAL. CONFINING 20-30 POP TO THE APLCNS S OF W99.
OTRW JUST BILLOWING DIURNAL CU...WHICH WL DSPT AFTR SUNSET.

ASSUMING MARINE CLDS ERODE JUST AFTER SUNRISE...WL BE ABLE TO ACCESS
THE WARMTH IN THE COLUMN...AND BE ABLE TO REACH LWR 90S. AM STILL
HOLDING ONTO THAT SOLN...BUT THE ONLY THING THATS ERODING RIGHT NOW
IS FCSTR CONFIDENCE.

UNDERNEATH THE RDG TNGT SKIES SHUD BE MOCLR AND WNDS LGT. DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 60S. THUS... PTTN SHUD FAVOR FOG DVLPMNT SINCE THERES NO
FEATURE THAT CUD BRING A MARINE LYR INLAND. WL HV PATCHY FOG ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA. MIN-T CLOSE TO GDNC.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MIDWEST H5 LOW SHUD BE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. THIS CUD
PROVIDE A MECHANSIM FOR A SLGTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD TSRA
DVLPMNT. FCST WL FEATURE SCT POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TSRA.
METRO BALT FURTHEST AWAY FM THIS FORCING FEATURE AND HAS ONLY SCHC
POPS. EMPHASIS WL BE ON MIDDAY-AFTN HRS.

THE S/WV WL BE SHEARING OUT AND HEADING SE WED EVNG. WL BE KEEPING
SOME LINGERING POPS...BUT GRDLY TAPERING CHCS OFF OVNGT. CAPE WASNT
HIGH TO START WITH AND WL BE DIMINISHING. THEREFORE HV TRANSITIONED
TSRA TO SHRA. ANY ADDTL PCPN SHUD BE MINIMAL.

TEMPS ON WED SHUD BE FAIRLY SIMLR TO TUE...AS NOT MUCH HAS CHGD
INTHE OVERALL PTTN BTWN THESE TWO DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NRLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
60S MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER TO THE NORTH AND SOME
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 90S
WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE SW SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AM WATCHING AREA OF LOW CLD ACRS SERN VA THAT CREEPING NEWD. TAFS
ATTM DO NOT FEATURE THESE SUB-IFR RESTRICTIONS. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT
THE NRN PROGRESS WL STOP SHORT OF CHO/IAD/DCA. W/O EVIDENCE TO THE
CONTRARY...FCST BASED ON THESE MODEL SOLNS. INSTEAD AM FEATURING
PREDAWN MVFR FOG. MUST ADMIT LOW CONFIDENCE.

AFTER DAYBREAK...AND LOW CLD OR FOG THAT DOES MANIFEST ITSELF SHUD
ERODE. DIURNAL CU SHUD DVLP...BUT BASES 050-060 WL HV NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT...NOR WL LGT WNDS.

ANTHR FOG OPPORTUNITY COMES TNGT. WL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR
TIL CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURENCE GROWS.

S/WV CROSSING TERMINALS WED WL PROVIDE A SLGTLY BETTER CHC AT TSRA.
SCT CVRG SO DIRECT HIT/TERMINAL IMPACTS STILL UNCERTAIN. BWI/MTN
SEEMS TO BE AWAY FROM PATH OF HIEST RISK. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PSBL W/IN ANY TSRA.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU-SAT. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
W/SW FLOW AOB 10 KT ATTM. WNDS SHUDNT BE MUCH HIER THAN THAT TDA OR
THIS EVNG. ANTICIPATE FLOW BCMG ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN.

MAY BE A FEW TSRA CROSSING WATERS WED. LGT NWLY FLOW BHD S/WV.

A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 010754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ANALYZED ACRS THE MID ATLC/SERN CONUS. HWVR WK LOPRES
INVOF HSE IS RESULTING IN LCL ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE STRATUS RAPIDLY
BCMG THE BIGGER ISSUE ACRS SERN VA...AND ITS CREEPING NWWD. ITS
ALREADY ENGULFED EZF/GVE/OMH/CJR. SUSPECT IT/LL MAKE FURTHER INROADS
ACRS THE PIEDMONT OF VA. ACRS PA FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM...AND IT
SEEMS AS THO THERE ARE PATCHES OF IT ACRS NRN MD AS WELL.

MESOSCALE GDNC PERFORMING BETTER THAN SYNOP MDLS IN TERMS OF
IDENTIFYING THE LLVL MSTR. HWVR...IT WASNT DELINIATING BTWN FOG/LOW
CLD VERY WELL...PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINITES AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE THE
SHIELD WL BECOME. AM CONCERNED THAT IT CUD REACH THE NRN VA DC
BURBS. IF IT DID...IT WUD HV BIG IMPLICATIONS ON THE FCST EVOLUTION
LATER TDA. FOR NOW AM HOLDING A RIBBON LOW CLD IN VA E OF THE BLURDG
UP TO ABT HEF. WL BE MONITORING OBS AND ADJUSTING GRIDS AS NEEDED.

THE SYNOP HGT PTTN FEATURES A RDG ACRS THE APLCNS/GRTLKS/MIDWEST.
THERES A WK CUTOFF H5 LOW IN/NEAR OH...WHICH SHUD STAY W OF AREA
TDA. THEREFORE...MAIN FORCING WL COME FM TRRN CICRULATIONS...AS
INSTBY/SHEAR MINIMAL. CONFINING 20-30 POP TO THE APLCNS S OF W99.
OTRW JUST BILLOWING DIURNAL CU...WHICH WL DSPT AFTR SUNSET.

ASSUMING MARINE CLDS ERODE JUST AFTER SUNRISE...WL BE ABLE TO ACCESS
THE WARMTH IN THE COLUMN...AND BE ABLE TO REACH LWR 90S. AM STILL
HOLDING ONTO THAT SOLN...BUT THE ONLY THING THATS ERODING RIGHT NOW
IS FCSTR CONFIDENCE.

UNDERNEATH THE RDG TNGT SKIES SHUD BE MOCLR AND WNDS LGT. DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 60S. THUS... PTTN SHUD FAVOR FOG DVLPMNT SINCE THERES NO
FEATURE THAT CUD BRING A MARINE LYR INLAND. WL HV PATCHY FOG ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA. MIN-T CLOSE TO GDNC.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MIDWEST H5 LOW SHUD BE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. THIS CUD
PROVIDE A MECHANSIM FOR A SLGTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD TSRA
DVLPMNT. FCST WL FEATURE SCT POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TSRA.
METRO BALT FURTHEST AWAY FM THIS FORCING FEATURE AND HAS ONLY SCHC
POPS. EMPHASIS WL BE ON MIDDAY-AFTN HRS.

THE S/WV WL BE SHEARING OUT AND HEADING SE WED EVNG. WL BE KEEPING
SOME LINGERING POPS...BUT GRDLY TAPERING CHCS OFF OVNGT. CAPE WASNT
HIGH TO START WITH AND WL BE DIMINISHING. THEREFORE HV TRANSITIONED
TSRA TO SHRA. ANY ADDTL PCPN SHUD BE MINIMAL.

TEMPS ON WED SHUD BE FAIRLY SIMLR TO TUE...AS NOT MUCH HAS CHGD
INTHE OVERALL PTTN BTWN THESE TWO DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NRLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
60S MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER TO THE NORTH AND SOME
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 90S
WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE SW SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AM WATCHING AREA OF LOW CLD ACRS SERN VA THAT CREEPING NEWD. TAFS
ATTM DO NOT FEATURE THESE SUB-IFR RESTRICTIONS. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT
THE NRN PROGRESS WL STOP SHORT OF CHO/IAD/DCA. W/O EVIDENCE TO THE
CONTRARY...FCST BASED ON THESE MODEL SOLNS. INSTEAD AM FEATURING
PREDAWN MVFR FOG. MUST ADMIT LOW CONFIDENCE.

AFTER DAYBREAK...AND LOW CLD OR FOG THAT DOES MANIFEST ITSELF SHUD
ERODE. DIURNAL CU SHUD DVLP...BUT BASES 050-060 WL HV NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT...NOR WL LGT WNDS.

ANTHR FOG OPPORTUNITY COMES TNGT. WL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR
TIL CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURENCE GROWS.

S/WV CROSSING TERMINALS WED WL PROVIDE A SLGTLY BETTER CHC AT TSRA.
SCT CVRG SO DIRECT HIT/TERMINAL IMPACTS STILL UNCERTAIN. BWI/MTN
SEEMS TO BE AWAY FROM PATH OF HIEST RISK. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PSBL W/IN ANY TSRA.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU-SAT. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
W/SW FLOW AOB 10 KT ATTM. WNDS SHUDNT BE MUCH HIER THAN THAT TDA OR
THIS EVNG. ANTICIPATE FLOW BCMG ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN.

MAY BE A FEW TSRA CROSSING WATERS WED. LGT NWLY FLOW BHD S/WV.

A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES ANALYZED ACRS THE MID ATLC/SERN CONUS. HWVR WK LOPRES
INVOF HSE IS RESULTING IN LCL ONSHORE FLOW. MARINE STRATUS RAPIDLY
BCMG THE BIGGER ISSUE ACRS SERN VA...AND ITS CREEPING NWWD. ITS
ALREADY ENGULFED EZF/GVE/OMH/CJR. SUSPECT IT/LL MAKE FURTHER INROADS
ACRS THE PIEDMONT OF VA. ACRS PA FOG HAS BEGUN TO FORM...AND IT
SEEMS AS THO THERE ARE PATCHES OF IT ACRS NRN MD AS WELL.

MESOSCALE GDNC PERFORMING BETTER THAN SYNOP MDLS IN TERMS OF
IDENTIFYING THE LLVL MSTR. HWVR...IT WASNT DELINIATING BTWN FOG/LOW
CLD VERY WELL...PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINITES AS TO HOW EXTENSIVE THE
SHIELD WL BECOME. AM CONCERNED THAT IT CUD REACH THE NRN VA DC
BURBS. IF IT DID...IT WUD HV BIG IMPLICATIONS ON THE FCST EVOLUTION
LATER TDA. FOR NOW AM HOLDING A RIBBON LOW CLD IN VA E OF THE BLURDG
UP TO ABT HEF. WL BE MONITORING OBS AND ADJUSTING GRIDS AS NEEDED.

THE SYNOP HGT PTTN FEATURES A RDG ACRS THE APLCNS/GRTLKS/MIDWEST.
THERES A WK CUTOFF H5 LOW IN/NEAR OH...WHICH SHUD STAY W OF AREA
TDA. THEREFORE...MAIN FORCING WL COME FM TRRN CICRULATIONS...AS
INSTBY/SHEAR MINIMAL. CONFINING 20-30 POP TO THE APLCNS S OF W99.
OTRW JUST BILLOWING DIURNAL CU...WHICH WL DSPT AFTR SUNSET.

ASSUMING MARINE CLDS ERODE JUST AFTER SUNRISE...WL BE ABLE TO ACCESS
THE WARMTH IN THE COLUMN...AND BE ABLE TO REACH LWR 90S. AM STILL
HOLDING ONTO THAT SOLN...BUT THE ONLY THING THATS ERODING RIGHT NOW
IS FCSTR CONFIDENCE.

UNDERNEATH THE RDG TNGT SKIES SHUD BE MOCLR AND WNDS LGT. DEWPTS IN
THE UPR 60S. THUS... PTTN SHUD FAVOR FOG DVLPMNT SINCE THERES NO
FEATURE THAT CUD BRING A MARINE LYR INLAND. WL HV PATCHY FOG ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA. MIN-T CLOSE TO GDNC.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MIDWEST H5 LOW SHUD BE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. THIS CUD
PROVIDE A MECHANSIM FOR A SLGTLY MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD TSRA
DVLPMNT. FCST WL FEATURE SCT POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TSRA.
METRO BALT FURTHEST AWAY FM THIS FORCING FEATURE AND HAS ONLY SCHC
POPS. EMPHASIS WL BE ON MIDDAY-AFTN HRS.

THE S/WV WL BE SHEARING OUT AND HEADING SE WED EVNG. WL BE KEEPING
SOME LINGERING POPS...BUT GRDLY TAPERING CHCS OFF OVNGT. CAPE WASNT
HIGH TO START WITH AND WL BE DIMINISHING. THEREFORE HV TRANSITIONED
TSRA TO SHRA. ANY ADDTL PCPN SHUD BE MINIMAL.

TEMPS ON WED SHUD BE FAIRLY SIMLR TO TUE...AS NOT MUCH HAS CHGD
INTHE OVERALL PTTN BTWN THESE TWO DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME
NRLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID
60S MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER TO THE NORTH AND SOME
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS IN THE 90S
WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID 60S WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE SW SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST
MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AM WATCHING AREA OF LOW CLD ACRS SERN VA THAT CREEPING NEWD. TAFS
ATTM DO NOT FEATURE THESE SUB-IFR RESTRICTIONS. GDNC SUGGESTING THAT
THE NRN PROGRESS WL STOP SHORT OF CHO/IAD/DCA. W/O EVIDENCE TO THE
CONTRARY...FCST BASED ON THESE MODEL SOLNS. INSTEAD AM FEATURING
PREDAWN MVFR FOG. MUST ADMIT LOW CONFIDENCE.

AFTER DAYBREAK...AND LOW CLD OR FOG THAT DOES MANIFEST ITSELF SHUD
ERODE. DIURNAL CU SHUD DVLP...BUT BASES 050-060 WL HV NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT...NOR WL LGT WNDS.

ANTHR FOG OPPORTUNITY COMES TNGT. WL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR
TIL CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURENCE GROWS.

S/WV CROSSING TERMINALS WED WL PROVIDE A SLGTLY BETTER CHC AT TSRA.
SCT CVRG SO DIRECT HIT/TERMINAL IMPACTS STILL UNCERTAIN. BWI/MTN
SEEMS TO BE AWAY FROM PATH OF HIEST RISK. BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS
PSBL W/IN ANY TSRA.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU-SAT. SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...
W/SW FLOW AOB 10 KT ATTM. WNDS SHUDNT BE MUCH HIER THAN THAT TDA OR
THIS EVNG. ANTICIPATE FLOW BCMG ONSHORE DURING THE AFTN.

MAY BE A FEW TSRA CROSSING WATERS WED. LGT NWLY FLOW BHD S/WV.

A SFC TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HAS/HTS
MARINE...HAS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010111
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
SOME CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN THE S/W. WITH WINDS CALM AND ELEVATED
DEW POINTS...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. FAVORED AREAS WOULD BE INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METROS...
PARTICULARLY TO THE S/W. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

BROAD SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN TERRAIN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NEAR OR EXCEED 90 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 THOUGH SINCE DEW
POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE. LOWS COULD EVEN BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN A
CONCERN AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE METROS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE
UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT WITH NO
TEMPERATURE OR DEWPOINT GRADIENT MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL TURN OUT DRY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN SUN THROUGH
MON BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD HELP BR DEVELOP AT MRB/CHO. CONFIDENCE A BIT
HIGHER FOR IAD SO INCLUDED MVFR BR IN TAF THERE AS WELL. FOR
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BR WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A POPUP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU NIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS FLIRTED WITH 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING SO ISSUED A
STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. THIS EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT AND WIND
SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONCERN AFTER THAT POINT. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED BY TUESDAY AND FLOW WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10
KT.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/IMR/RCM
MARINE...BJL/ADS/IMR/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010111
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
SOME CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN THE S/W. WITH WINDS CALM AND ELEVATED
DEW POINTS...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. FAVORED AREAS WOULD BE INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METROS...
PARTICULARLY TO THE S/W. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

BROAD SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN TERRAIN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NEAR OR EXCEED 90 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 THOUGH SINCE DEW
POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE. LOWS COULD EVEN BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN A
CONCERN AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE METROS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE
UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT WITH NO
TEMPERATURE OR DEWPOINT GRADIENT MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL TURN OUT DRY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN SUN THROUGH
MON BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD HELP BR DEVELOP AT MRB/CHO. CONFIDENCE A BIT
HIGHER FOR IAD SO INCLUDED MVFR BR IN TAF THERE AS WELL. FOR
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BR WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A POPUP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU NIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS FLIRTED WITH 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING SO ISSUED A
STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. THIS EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT AND WIND
SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONCERN AFTER THAT POINT. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED BY TUESDAY AND FLOW WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10
KT.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/IMR/RCM
MARINE...BJL/ADS/IMR/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 010111
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
SOME CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN THE S/W. WITH WINDS CALM AND ELEVATED
DEW POINTS...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. FAVORED AREAS WOULD BE INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METROS...
PARTICULARLY TO THE S/W. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

BROAD SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN TERRAIN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NEAR OR EXCEED 90 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 THOUGH SINCE DEW
POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE. LOWS COULD EVEN BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN A
CONCERN AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE METROS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE
UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT WITH NO
TEMPERATURE OR DEWPOINT GRADIENT MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL TURN OUT DRY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN SUN THROUGH
MON BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD HELP BR DEVELOP AT MRB/CHO. CONFIDENCE A BIT
HIGHER FOR IAD SO INCLUDED MVFR BR IN TAF THERE AS WELL. FOR
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BR WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A POPUP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU NIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS FLIRTED WITH 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING SO ISSUED A
STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. THIS EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT AND WIND
SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONCERN AFTER THAT POINT. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED BY TUESDAY AND FLOW WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10
KT.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/IMR/RCM
MARINE...BJL/ADS/IMR/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 010111
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL LIKELY
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
SOME CLOUDS COULD LINGER IN THE S/W. WITH WINDS CALM AND ELEVATED
DEW POINTS...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
COVER. FAVORED AREAS WOULD BE INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE METROS...
PARTICULARLY TO THE S/W. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

BROAD SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN TERRAIN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NEAR OR EXCEED 90 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 THOUGH SINCE DEW
POINTS SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE. LOWS COULD EVEN BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN A
CONCERN AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE METROS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MORE
UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT WITH NO
TEMPERATURE OR DEWPOINT GRADIENT MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL TURN OUT DRY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN SUN THROUGH
MON BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME CLEARING
LATER TONIGHT SHOULD HELP BR DEVELOP AT MRB/CHO. CONFIDENCE A BIT
HIGHER FOR IAD SO INCLUDED MVFR BR IN TAF THERE AS WELL. FOR
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BR WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A POPUP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU NIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS FLIRTED WITH 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING SO ISSUED A
STATEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE BAY. THIS EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT AND WIND
SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONCERN AFTER THAT POINT. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
REESTABLISHED BY TUESDAY AND FLOW WILL BE VARIABLE AND UNDER 10
KT.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL/RCM
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/IMR/RCM
MARINE...BJL/ADS/IMR/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
VORT MAX IS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAPID CLEARING IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...CUMULUS HAVE FILLED IN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS FEATURE HAS ONLY PROVIDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AS MOST MOISTURE IS IN THE MID LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS SINKING SOUTH AND THIS IS WHERE SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN PA/WESTERN MD. ALL TOLD...THINK
THIS WILL LEAD TO MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY N AND W OF
DC...WHERE BETTER INSTBY IS ALSO LOCATED. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE THOUGH.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL SINK SOUTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS COULD
LINGER IN THE S/W. WITH WINDS CALM AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS...SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
WOULD BE S/W OF METROS. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

BROAD SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN TERRAIN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NEAR OR EXCEED 90 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE. LOWS COULD EVEN BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MORE UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT WITH NO
TEMPERATURE OR DEWPOINT GRADIENT MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL TURN OUT DRY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN SUN THROUGH
MON BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...TRENDS SUGGEST MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE METRO AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFFECTING A TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. CHANCE WILL DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. ASSUMING SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AT MRB/CHO. CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO INCLUDE AT IAD FOR NOW. FOR
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A POPUP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU NIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPEED COULD INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE CAPPED AT 15 KT GIVEN
THE SW COMPONENT. AN ISOLATE SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
DC/BALTIMORE AREA THROUGH EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD BE WEAK IF THEY
OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND FLOW WILL BE
VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KT.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/IMR
MARINE...BJL/ADS/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 311901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
VORT MAX IS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAPID CLEARING IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...CUMULUS HAVE FILLED IN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS FEATURE HAS ONLY PROVIDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AS MOST MOISTURE IS IN THE MID LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS SINKING SOUTH AND THIS IS WHERE SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN PA/WESTERN MD. ALL TOLD...THINK
THIS WILL LEAD TO MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY N AND W OF
DC...WHERE BETTER INSTBY IS ALSO LOCATED. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE THOUGH.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL SINK SOUTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS COULD
LINGER IN THE S/W. WITH WINDS CALM AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS...SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
WOULD BE S/W OF METROS. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

BROAD SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN TERRAIN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NEAR OR EXCEED 90 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE. LOWS COULD EVEN BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MORE UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT WITH NO
TEMPERATURE OR DEWPOINT GRADIENT MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL TURN OUT DRY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN SUN THROUGH
MON BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...TRENDS SUGGEST MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE METRO AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFFECTING A TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. CHANCE WILL DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. ASSUMING SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AT MRB/CHO. CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO INCLUDE AT IAD FOR NOW. FOR
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A POPUP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU NIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPEED COULD INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE CAPPED AT 15 KT GIVEN
THE SW COMPONENT. AN ISOLATE SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
DC/BALTIMORE AREA THROUGH EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD BE WEAK IF THEY
OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND FLOW WILL BE
VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KT.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/IMR
MARINE...BJL/ADS/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
VORT MAX IS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAPID CLEARING IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...CUMULUS HAVE FILLED IN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS FEATURE HAS ONLY PROVIDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AS MOST MOISTURE IS IN THE MID LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS SINKING SOUTH AND THIS IS WHERE SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN PA/WESTERN MD. ALL TOLD...THINK
THIS WILL LEAD TO MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY N AND W OF
DC...WHERE BETTER INSTBY IS ALSO LOCATED. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE THOUGH.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL SINK SOUTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS COULD
LINGER IN THE S/W. WITH WINDS CALM AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS...SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
WOULD BE S/W OF METROS. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

BROAD SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN TERRAIN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NEAR OR EXCEED 90 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE. LOWS COULD EVEN BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MORE UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT WITH NO
TEMPERATURE OR DEWPOINT GRADIENT MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL TURN OUT DRY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN SUN THROUGH
MON BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...TRENDS SUGGEST MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE METRO AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFFECTING A TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. CHANCE WILL DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. ASSUMING SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AT MRB/CHO. CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO INCLUDE AT IAD FOR NOW. FOR
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A POPUP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU NIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPEED COULD INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE CAPPED AT 15 KT GIVEN
THE SW COMPONENT. AN ISOLATE SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
DC/BALTIMORE AREA THROUGH EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD BE WEAK IF THEY
OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND FLOW WILL BE
VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KT.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/IMR
MARINE...BJL/ADS/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 311901
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD THURSDAY BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL COMPETING FACTORS IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
VORT MAX IS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAPID CLEARING IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...CUMULUS HAVE FILLED IN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS FEATURE HAS ONLY PROVIDED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
AS MOST MOISTURE IS IN THE MID LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS SINKING SOUTH AND THIS IS WHERE SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN SOUTHERN PA/WESTERN MD. ALL TOLD...THINK
THIS WILL LEAD TO MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING MAINLY N AND W OF
DC...WHERE BETTER INSTBY IS ALSO LOCATED. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE THOUGH.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL SINK SOUTH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS COULD
LINGER IN THE S/W. WITH WINDS CALM AND ELEVATED DEW POINTS...SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FAVORED AREAS
WOULD BE S/W OF METROS. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

BROAD SFC RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD...AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN TERRAIN. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO NEAR OR EXCEED 90 IN MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 100 THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE. LOWS COULD EVEN BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...WITH MORE
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MORE UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. A NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT WITH NO
TEMPERATURE OR DEWPOINT GRADIENT MORE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY. A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT AGAIN MORE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
AREAS WILL TURN OUT DRY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY
MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN SUN THROUGH
MON BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...TRENDS SUGGEST MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN NW OF THE METRO AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AFFECTING A TERMINAL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS WOULD BE BRIEF IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. CHANCE WILL DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET. ASSUMING SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...BR WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AT MRB/CHO. CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO INCLUDE AT IAD FOR NOW. FOR
TUESDAY...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A POPUP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THU NIGHT. SUB VFR CONDITIONS PSBL DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SPEED COULD INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE CAPPED AT 15 KT GIVEN
THE SW COMPONENT. AN ISOLATE SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
DC/BALTIMORE AREA THROUGH EVENING...BUT THESE SHOULD BE WEAK IF THEY
OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED TUESDAY AND FLOW WILL BE
VARIABLE AND UNDER 10 KT.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...BJL/ADS/IMR
MARINE...BJL/ADS/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311411
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS
EXTENDS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A REFLECTION IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS COULD ACT AS A
FOCUS/FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE OTHER
IS A VORT MAX LOCATED IN SW VA WHICH WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN DISORGANIZED.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS N/W OF DC MAY ALLOW SOME INSTBY TO BE
REALIZED AND HAVE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE AREAS TODAY.
HAVE RELIED ON HRRR/RAP/NAM AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES FOR
LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST POPS (STILL IN SCATTERED CATEGORY)...ALTHOUGH
TOUGH TO RULE OUT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. IN THE AREAS WITH
HIGHER INSTBY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING HEAVIER SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...AND LOCATIONS OF
BREAKS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MID-80S AT THIS TIME.

THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN...ABANDONING A POCKET OF LWR HGTS
IN THE OHVLY. THE RESULTANT FLOW PTTN SHUD PROMOTE THINNING OF THE
CLD DECK. WL BRING CLRG SKIES INTO CWFA FM N TO S...AND CARRY A
MOCLR NGT. LOWS WILL FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S...WITH URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHO THERE WL BE A CUTOFF LOW WANDERING ARND THE OHVLY /AND SOME
GDNC SUGGESTING A CSTL SFC LOW MAY DVLP OFF THE CAROLINAS/...THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF RDGG WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER LOCALLY. THEREFORE THE
SUN AND WARMTH WL DOMINATE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO FULL SUN
TEMPS...MARKING A 90 DEG DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...HV A
BETTER CHC AT REACHING CNVCTV TEMPS. WL NEED THE BOOST FROM TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND HV RESTRICTED 20-30 POPS TO THE SWRN CWFA. TUE
NGT MIN-T WL OFFER A HVY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE FM MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RIDE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OR
CLOSE BY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS BY THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE
LINES THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED
TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE
TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN ANY IMPACTS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONE OF THESE DEVELOP OVER A
TERMINAL. SSWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BRING PLENTY OF CLDCVR THO.
CIGS MAINLY MID DECK BUT COULD LOWER AT TIMES. PCPN WIDELY SCTD
AND LGT. IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SKIES WL CLR TNGT AS WIND DROP TO BLO 5 KT AND VEER WLY. SINCE RADL
COOLING BETTER FOG BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. ATTM BEST CHC CHO/MRB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
TODAY. CLDS AND WK PRES PTTN WL KEEP MOST SUSTAINED SPDS NEAR 10
KT. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR DC/BALTIMORE...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. MUCH
LESS OF A CHC AT CHANNELING LT TNGT THRU TUE THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. A SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 311411
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS
EXTENDS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A REFLECTION IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS COULD ACT AS A
FOCUS/FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE OTHER
IS A VORT MAX LOCATED IN SW VA WHICH WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN DISORGANIZED.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS N/W OF DC MAY ALLOW SOME INSTBY TO BE
REALIZED AND HAVE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE AREAS TODAY.
HAVE RELIED ON HRRR/RAP/NAM AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES FOR
LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST POPS (STILL IN SCATTERED CATEGORY)...ALTHOUGH
TOUGH TO RULE OUT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. IN THE AREAS WITH
HIGHER INSTBY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING HEAVIER SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...AND LOCATIONS OF
BREAKS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MID-80S AT THIS TIME.

THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN...ABANDONING A POCKET OF LWR HGTS
IN THE OHVLY. THE RESULTANT FLOW PTTN SHUD PROMOTE THINNING OF THE
CLD DECK. WL BRING CLRG SKIES INTO CWFA FM N TO S...AND CARRY A
MOCLR NGT. LOWS WILL FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S...WITH URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHO THERE WL BE A CUTOFF LOW WANDERING ARND THE OHVLY /AND SOME
GDNC SUGGESTING A CSTL SFC LOW MAY DVLP OFF THE CAROLINAS/...THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF RDGG WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER LOCALLY. THEREFORE THE
SUN AND WARMTH WL DOMINATE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO FULL SUN
TEMPS...MARKING A 90 DEG DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...HV A
BETTER CHC AT REACHING CNVCTV TEMPS. WL NEED THE BOOST FROM TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND HV RESTRICTED 20-30 POPS TO THE SWRN CWFA. TUE
NGT MIN-T WL OFFER A HVY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE FM MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RIDE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OR
CLOSE BY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS BY THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE
LINES THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED
TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE
TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN ANY IMPACTS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONE OF THESE DEVELOP OVER A
TERMINAL. SSWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BRING PLENTY OF CLDCVR THO.
CIGS MAINLY MID DECK BUT COULD LOWER AT TIMES. PCPN WIDELY SCTD
AND LGT. IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SKIES WL CLR TNGT AS WIND DROP TO BLO 5 KT AND VEER WLY. SINCE RADL
COOLING BETTER FOG BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. ATTM BEST CHC CHO/MRB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
TODAY. CLDS AND WK PRES PTTN WL KEEP MOST SUSTAINED SPDS NEAR 10
KT. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR DC/BALTIMORE...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. MUCH
LESS OF A CHC AT CHANNELING LT TNGT THRU TUE THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. A SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311411
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS
EXTENDS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A REFLECTION IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS COULD ACT AS A
FOCUS/FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE OTHER
IS A VORT MAX LOCATED IN SW VA WHICH WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN DISORGANIZED.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS N/W OF DC MAY ALLOW SOME INSTBY TO BE
REALIZED AND HAVE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE AREAS TODAY.
HAVE RELIED ON HRRR/RAP/NAM AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES FOR
LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST POPS (STILL IN SCATTERED CATEGORY)...ALTHOUGH
TOUGH TO RULE OUT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. IN THE AREAS WITH
HIGHER INSTBY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING HEAVIER SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...AND LOCATIONS OF
BREAKS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MID-80S AT THIS TIME.

THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN...ABANDONING A POCKET OF LWR HGTS
IN THE OHVLY. THE RESULTANT FLOW PTTN SHUD PROMOTE THINNING OF THE
CLD DECK. WL BRING CLRG SKIES INTO CWFA FM N TO S...AND CARRY A
MOCLR NGT. LOWS WILL FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S...WITH URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHO THERE WL BE A CUTOFF LOW WANDERING ARND THE OHVLY /AND SOME
GDNC SUGGESTING A CSTL SFC LOW MAY DVLP OFF THE CAROLINAS/...THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF RDGG WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER LOCALLY. THEREFORE THE
SUN AND WARMTH WL DOMINATE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO FULL SUN
TEMPS...MARKING A 90 DEG DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...HV A
BETTER CHC AT REACHING CNVCTV TEMPS. WL NEED THE BOOST FROM TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND HV RESTRICTED 20-30 POPS TO THE SWRN CWFA. TUE
NGT MIN-T WL OFFER A HVY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE FM MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RIDE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OR
CLOSE BY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS BY THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE
LINES THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED
TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE
TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN ANY IMPACTS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONE OF THESE DEVELOP OVER A
TERMINAL. SSWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BRING PLENTY OF CLDCVR THO.
CIGS MAINLY MID DECK BUT COULD LOWER AT TIMES. PCPN WIDELY SCTD
AND LGT. IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SKIES WL CLR TNGT AS WIND DROP TO BLO 5 KT AND VEER WLY. SINCE RADL
COOLING BETTER FOG BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. ATTM BEST CHC CHO/MRB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
TODAY. CLDS AND WK PRES PTTN WL KEEP MOST SUSTAINED SPDS NEAR 10
KT. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR DC/BALTIMORE...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. MUCH
LESS OF A CHC AT CHANNELING LT TNGT THRU TUE THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. A SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311411
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELDS
EXTENDS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A REFLECTION IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS COULD ACT AS A
FOCUS/FORCING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE OTHER
IS A VORT MAX LOCATED IN SW VA WHICH WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN DISORGANIZED.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS N/W OF DC MAY ALLOW SOME INSTBY TO BE
REALIZED AND HAVE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO THESE AREAS TODAY.
HAVE RELIED ON HRRR/RAP/NAM AND AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES FOR
LOCATIONS OF HIGHEST POPS (STILL IN SCATTERED CATEGORY)...ALTHOUGH
TOUGH TO RULE OUT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. IN THE AREAS WITH
HIGHER INSTBY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING HEAVIER SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...AND LOCATIONS OF
BREAKS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO MINIMAL
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MID-80S AT THIS TIME.

THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN...ABANDONING A POCKET OF LWR HGTS
IN THE OHVLY. THE RESULTANT FLOW PTTN SHUD PROMOTE THINNING OF THE
CLD DECK. WL BRING CLRG SKIES INTO CWFA FM N TO S...AND CARRY A
MOCLR NGT. LOWS WILL FALL CLOSE TO THE DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S...WITH URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHO THERE WL BE A CUTOFF LOW WANDERING ARND THE OHVLY /AND SOME
GDNC SUGGESTING A CSTL SFC LOW MAY DVLP OFF THE CAROLINAS/...THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF RDGG WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER LOCALLY. THEREFORE THE
SUN AND WARMTH WL DOMINATE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO FULL SUN
TEMPS...MARKING A 90 DEG DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...HV A
BETTER CHC AT REACHING CNVCTV TEMPS. WL NEED THE BOOST FROM TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND HV RESTRICTED 20-30 POPS TO THE SWRN CWFA. TUE
NGT MIN-T WL OFFER A HVY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE FM MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RIDE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
CONSENSUS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OR
CLOSE BY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS BY THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE
LINES THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED
TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE
TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN ANY IMPACTS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONE OF THESE DEVELOP OVER A
TERMINAL. SSWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BRING PLENTY OF CLDCVR THO.
CIGS MAINLY MID DECK BUT COULD LOWER AT TIMES. PCPN WIDELY SCTD
AND LGT. IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SKIES WL CLR TNGT AS WIND DROP TO BLO 5 KT AND VEER WLY. SINCE RADL
COOLING BETTER FOG BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. ATTM BEST CHC CHO/MRB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
TODAY. CLDS AND WK PRES PTTN WL KEEP MOST SUSTAINED SPDS NEAR 10
KT. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR DC/BALTIMORE...BUT FOR
THE MOST PART ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. MUCH
LESS OF A CHC AT CHANNELING LT TNGT THRU TUE THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. A SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HAS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 310744
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS JUST OFF THE DELMARVA/CAROLINA COAST. SLY FLOW
PTTN EXISTS THRU H5...AS EVIDENCED BY DRIFT OF EXTENSIVE CLDCVR.
SPOTTY LGT RETURNS NOTED FM LWX 88D...BUT FM CIGS AOA 10K FT THESE
ARE SPRINKLES AT BEST. ECHOES ENTERING SSIDE VA MAY BE A LTL BIT
MORE THAN THAT. BRINGING CHC PCPN TO CENTRAL FOOTHILLS/SHEN VLY
DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. SCHC SHRA OR SCT SPRINKLES ELSW.

FORCING FEATURES EXIST FOR PCPN DURING THE DAYTIME /LLVL CONFLUENCE
ACRS NRN CWFA...PASSAGE OF H5 TROF AXIS TO THE NE...AND EJECTION OF
PVA FM THE SW/...BUT ITS ALL SCT AND DISORGANIZED. FURTHER...ADVCTN
OF LLVL MSTR STRUGGLES /ALL CLD SEEMS TO BE MID DECK PER RH PROFILE/
MAKING SUBSTANTIVE PCPN UNLKLY. HWVR...CLDCVR SHUD CONT TO BE FAIRLY
SOLID INTO THE AFTN. MEAN LYR RH NOT THAT SATD...SO WUD ANTICIPATE
SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN.

THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN...ABANDONING A POCKET OF LWR HGTS
IN THE OHVLY. THE RESULTANT FLOW PTTN SHUD PROMOTE THINNING OF THE
CLD DECK. WL BRING CLRG SKIES INTO CWFA FM N TO S...AND CARRY A
MOCLR NGT.

AREA WL BE IN A LOCAL MIN WHERE INSTBY MAINLY ABSENT. THUS AM KEEP
PCPN AS JUST SHRA /SPRINKLES ONCE AGN THE BETTER BET/ IN SCHC-CHC
POPS. SIMLR TO THE OUTCOME ON SUN...CLDS WL INHIBIT WARMING. MAXT WL
BE FAIRLY SIMLR...MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHO THERE WL BE A CUTOFF LOW WANDERING ARND THE OHVLY /AND SOME
GDNC SUGGESTING A CSTL SFC LOW MAY DVLP OFF THE CAROLINAS/...THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF RDGG WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER LOCALLY. THEREFORE THE
SUN AND WARMTH WL DOMINATE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO FULL SUN
TEMPS...MARKING A 90 DEG DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...HV A
BETTER CHC AT REACHING CNVCTV TEMPS. WL NEED THE BOOST FROM TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND HV RESTRICTED 20-30 POPS TO THE SWRN CWFA. TUE
NGT MIN-T WL OFFER A HVY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE FM MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RIDE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
CONSENSES THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OR
CLOSE BY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS BY THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE
LINES THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE VALID TAF PD. SSWLY
FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BRING PLENTY OF CLDCVR THO. CIGS MAINLY MID DECK.
PCPN WIDELY SCTD AND LGT. IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SKIES WL CLR TNGT AS WIND DROP TO BLO 5 KT AND VEER WLY. SINCE RADL
COOLING BETTER FOG BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. ATTM BEST CHC CHO/MRB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DROPPED SCA AS WNDS BLO THRESHOLD. SLY FLOW CONTS THIS MRNG...BUT WL
BECOME MORE SWLY THIS AFTN-EVNG. CLDS AND WK PRES PTTN WL KEEP MOST
SUSTAINED SPDS NEAR 10 KT. MUCH LESS OF A CHC AT CHANNELING LT TNGT
THRU TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. A SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 310744
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS JUST OFF THE DELMARVA/CAROLINA COAST. SLY FLOW
PTTN EXISTS THRU H5...AS EVIDENCED BY DRIFT OF EXTENSIVE CLDCVR.
SPOTTY LGT RETURNS NOTED FM LWX 88D...BUT FM CIGS AOA 10K FT THESE
ARE SPRINKLES AT BEST. ECHOES ENTERING SSIDE VA MAY BE A LTL BIT
MORE THAN THAT. BRINGING CHC PCPN TO CENTRAL FOOTHILLS/SHEN VLY
DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. SCHC SHRA OR SCT SPRINKLES ELSW.

FORCING FEATURES EXIST FOR PCPN DURING THE DAYTIME /LLVL CONFLUENCE
ACRS NRN CWFA...PASSAGE OF H5 TROF AXIS TO THE NE...AND EJECTION OF
PVA FM THE SW/...BUT ITS ALL SCT AND DISORGANIZED. FURTHER...ADVCTN
OF LLVL MSTR STRUGGLES /ALL CLD SEEMS TO BE MID DECK PER RH PROFILE/
MAKING SUBSTANTIVE PCPN UNLKLY. HWVR...CLDCVR SHUD CONT TO BE FAIRLY
SOLID INTO THE AFTN. MEAN LYR RH NOT THAT SATD...SO WUD ANTICIPATE
SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN.

THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN...ABANDONING A POCKET OF LWR HGTS
IN THE OHVLY. THE RESULTANT FLOW PTTN SHUD PROMOTE THINNING OF THE
CLD DECK. WL BRING CLRG SKIES INTO CWFA FM N TO S...AND CARRY A
MOCLR NGT.

AREA WL BE IN A LOCAL MIN WHERE INSTBY MAINLY ABSENT. THUS AM KEEP
PCPN AS JUST SHRA /SPRINKLES ONCE AGN THE BETTER BET/ IN SCHC-CHC
POPS. SIMLR TO THE OUTCOME ON SUN...CLDS WL INHIBIT WARMING. MAXT WL
BE FAIRLY SIMLR...MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHO THERE WL BE A CUTOFF LOW WANDERING ARND THE OHVLY /AND SOME
GDNC SUGGESTING A CSTL SFC LOW MAY DVLP OFF THE CAROLINAS/...THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF RDGG WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER LOCALLY. THEREFORE THE
SUN AND WARMTH WL DOMINATE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO FULL SUN
TEMPS...MARKING A 90 DEG DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...HV A
BETTER CHC AT REACHING CNVCTV TEMPS. WL NEED THE BOOST FROM TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND HV RESTRICTED 20-30 POPS TO THE SWRN CWFA. TUE
NGT MIN-T WL OFFER A HVY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE FM MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RIDE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
CONSENSES THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OR
CLOSE BY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS BY THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE
LINES THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE VALID TAF PD. SSWLY
FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BRING PLENTY OF CLDCVR THO. CIGS MAINLY MID DECK.
PCPN WIDELY SCTD AND LGT. IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SKIES WL CLR TNGT AS WIND DROP TO BLO 5 KT AND VEER WLY. SINCE RADL
COOLING BETTER FOG BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. ATTM BEST CHC CHO/MRB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DROPPED SCA AS WNDS BLO THRESHOLD. SLY FLOW CONTS THIS MRNG...BUT WL
BECOME MORE SWLY THIS AFTN-EVNG. CLDS AND WK PRES PTTN WL KEEP MOST
SUSTAINED SPDS NEAR 10 KT. MUCH LESS OF A CHC AT CHANNELING LT TNGT
THRU TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. A SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 310744
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS JUST OFF THE DELMARVA/CAROLINA COAST. SLY FLOW
PTTN EXISTS THRU H5...AS EVIDENCED BY DRIFT OF EXTENSIVE CLDCVR.
SPOTTY LGT RETURNS NOTED FM LWX 88D...BUT FM CIGS AOA 10K FT THESE
ARE SPRINKLES AT BEST. ECHOES ENTERING SSIDE VA MAY BE A LTL BIT
MORE THAN THAT. BRINGING CHC PCPN TO CENTRAL FOOTHILLS/SHEN VLY
DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. SCHC SHRA OR SCT SPRINKLES ELSW.

FORCING FEATURES EXIST FOR PCPN DURING THE DAYTIME /LLVL CONFLUENCE
ACRS NRN CWFA...PASSAGE OF H5 TROF AXIS TO THE NE...AND EJECTION OF
PVA FM THE SW/...BUT ITS ALL SCT AND DISORGANIZED. FURTHER...ADVCTN
OF LLVL MSTR STRUGGLES /ALL CLD SEEMS TO BE MID DECK PER RH PROFILE/
MAKING SUBSTANTIVE PCPN UNLKLY. HWVR...CLDCVR SHUD CONT TO BE FAIRLY
SOLID INTO THE AFTN. MEAN LYR RH NOT THAT SATD...SO WUD ANTICIPATE
SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN.

THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN...ABANDONING A POCKET OF LWR HGTS
IN THE OHVLY. THE RESULTANT FLOW PTTN SHUD PROMOTE THINNING OF THE
CLD DECK. WL BRING CLRG SKIES INTO CWFA FM N TO S...AND CARRY A
MOCLR NGT.

AREA WL BE IN A LOCAL MIN WHERE INSTBY MAINLY ABSENT. THUS AM KEEP
PCPN AS JUST SHRA /SPRINKLES ONCE AGN THE BETTER BET/ IN SCHC-CHC
POPS. SIMLR TO THE OUTCOME ON SUN...CLDS WL INHIBIT WARMING. MAXT WL
BE FAIRLY SIMLR...MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHO THERE WL BE A CUTOFF LOW WANDERING ARND THE OHVLY /AND SOME
GDNC SUGGESTING A CSTL SFC LOW MAY DVLP OFF THE CAROLINAS/...THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF RDGG WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER LOCALLY. THEREFORE THE
SUN AND WARMTH WL DOMINATE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO FULL SUN
TEMPS...MARKING A 90 DEG DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...HV A
BETTER CHC AT REACHING CNVCTV TEMPS. WL NEED THE BOOST FROM TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND HV RESTRICTED 20-30 POPS TO THE SWRN CWFA. TUE
NGT MIN-T WL OFFER A HVY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE FM MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RIDE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
CONSENSES THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OR
CLOSE BY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS BY THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE
LINES THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE VALID TAF PD. SSWLY
FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BRING PLENTY OF CLDCVR THO. CIGS MAINLY MID DECK.
PCPN WIDELY SCTD AND LGT. IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SKIES WL CLR TNGT AS WIND DROP TO BLO 5 KT AND VEER WLY. SINCE RADL
COOLING BETTER FOG BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. ATTM BEST CHC CHO/MRB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DROPPED SCA AS WNDS BLO THRESHOLD. SLY FLOW CONTS THIS MRNG...BUT WL
BECOME MORE SWLY THIS AFTN-EVNG. CLDS AND WK PRES PTTN WL KEEP MOST
SUSTAINED SPDS NEAR 10 KT. MUCH LESS OF A CHC AT CHANNELING LT TNGT
THRU TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. A SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 310744
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
344 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE TODAY. A TROUGH AXIS
WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REFOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS JUST OFF THE DELMARVA/CAROLINA COAST. SLY FLOW
PTTN EXISTS THRU H5...AS EVIDENCED BY DRIFT OF EXTENSIVE CLDCVR.
SPOTTY LGT RETURNS NOTED FM LWX 88D...BUT FM CIGS AOA 10K FT THESE
ARE SPRINKLES AT BEST. ECHOES ENTERING SSIDE VA MAY BE A LTL BIT
MORE THAN THAT. BRINGING CHC PCPN TO CENTRAL FOOTHILLS/SHEN VLY
DURING THE MRNG COMMUTE. SCHC SHRA OR SCT SPRINKLES ELSW.

FORCING FEATURES EXIST FOR PCPN DURING THE DAYTIME /LLVL CONFLUENCE
ACRS NRN CWFA...PASSAGE OF H5 TROF AXIS TO THE NE...AND EJECTION OF
PVA FM THE SW/...BUT ITS ALL SCT AND DISORGANIZED. FURTHER...ADVCTN
OF LLVL MSTR STRUGGLES /ALL CLD SEEMS TO BE MID DECK PER RH PROFILE/
MAKING SUBSTANTIVE PCPN UNLKLY. HWVR...CLDCVR SHUD CONT TO BE FAIRLY
SOLID INTO THE AFTN. MEAN LYR RH NOT THAT SATD...SO WUD ANTICIPATE
SOME GLIMPSES OF SUN.

THE UPR TROF WL CROSS MID-LT AFTN...ABANDONING A POCKET OF LWR HGTS
IN THE OHVLY. THE RESULTANT FLOW PTTN SHUD PROMOTE THINNING OF THE
CLD DECK. WL BRING CLRG SKIES INTO CWFA FM N TO S...AND CARRY A
MOCLR NGT.

AREA WL BE IN A LOCAL MIN WHERE INSTBY MAINLY ABSENT. THUS AM KEEP
PCPN AS JUST SHRA /SPRINKLES ONCE AGN THE BETTER BET/ IN SCHC-CHC
POPS. SIMLR TO THE OUTCOME ON SUN...CLDS WL INHIBIT WARMING. MAXT WL
BE FAIRLY SIMLR...MID-UPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHO THERE WL BE A CUTOFF LOW WANDERING ARND THE OHVLY /AND SOME
GDNC SUGGESTING A CSTL SFC LOW MAY DVLP OFF THE CAROLINAS/...THE RE-
EMERGENCE OF RDGG WL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYER LOCALLY. THEREFORE THE
SUN AND WARMTH WL DOMINATE. SHUD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSER TO FULL SUN
TEMPS...MARKING A 90 DEG DAY FOR MOST AREAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...HV A
BETTER CHC AT REACHING CNVCTV TEMPS. WL NEED THE BOOST FROM TRRN
CIRCULATIONS...AND HV RESTRICTED 20-30 POPS TO THE SWRN CWFA. TUE
NGT MIN-T WL OFFER A HVY DOSE OF PERSISTENCE FM MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RIDE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY.
MODELS DIFFER WITH INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH BUT THERE IS
CONSENSES THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OR
CLOSE BY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS BY THURSDAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE
LINES THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEG ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY
RESULT IN DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLGT RESTRICTIONS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE VALID TAF PD. SSWLY
FLOW AOB 10 KT WL BRING PLENTY OF CLDCVR THO. CIGS MAINLY MID DECK.
PCPN WIDELY SCTD AND LGT. IMPACT TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SKIES WL CLR TNGT AS WIND DROP TO BLO 5 KT AND VEER WLY. SINCE RADL
COOLING BETTER FOG BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. ATTM BEST CHC CHO/MRB.

OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DROPPED SCA AS WNDS BLO THRESHOLD. SLY FLOW CONTS THIS MRNG...BUT WL
BECOME MORE SWLY THIS AFTN-EVNG. CLDS AND WK PRES PTTN WL KEEP MOST
SUSTAINED SPDS NEAR 10 KT. MUCH LESS OF A CHC AT CHANNELING LT TNGT
THRU TUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WED-FRI. A SFC
TROUGH MAY FORM CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT BUT THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HAS
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 310154
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
954 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE RECENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PERSISTS
LATE INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THESE SLOW
MOVING CELLS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF HALF TO AN INCH PER
HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE GIVEN CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM SLY FLOW. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GENERALLY WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE.
MIN TEMPS GENERALLY U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW ADVECTION IN MOISTURE. HIGHS
WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE L90S. SCATTERED TSTMS PSBL IN
TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR
SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS
AND NEAR SHORE.

MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR
MOST.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES
KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR
AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING HAS BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED...BUT STILL SOME 18KT
GUSTS. WILL CANCEL SOME OR ALL OF THE HEADLINE WITH THE 1030PM
UPDATE.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES MONDAY WITH SWLY FLOW FROM HIGH
OFFSHORE.

WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 310154
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
954 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE RECENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PERSISTS
LATE INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THESE SLOW
MOVING CELLS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF HALF TO AN INCH PER
HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE GIVEN CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM SLY FLOW. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GENERALLY WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE.
MIN TEMPS GENERALLY U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW ADVECTION IN MOISTURE. HIGHS
WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE L90S. SCATTERED TSTMS PSBL IN
TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR
SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS
AND NEAR SHORE.

MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR
MOST.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES
KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR
AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING HAS BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED...BUT STILL SOME 18KT
GUSTS. WILL CANCEL SOME OR ALL OF THE HEADLINE WITH THE 1030PM
UPDATE.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES MONDAY WITH SWLY FLOW FROM HIGH
OFFSHORE.

WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 310154
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
954 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE RECENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PERSISTS
LATE INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THESE SLOW
MOVING CELLS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF HALF TO AN INCH PER
HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE GIVEN CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM SLY FLOW. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GENERALLY WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE.
MIN TEMPS GENERALLY U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW ADVECTION IN MOISTURE. HIGHS
WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE L90S. SCATTERED TSTMS PSBL IN
TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR
SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS
AND NEAR SHORE.

MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR
MOST.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES
KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR
AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING HAS BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED...BUT STILL SOME 18KT
GUSTS. WILL CANCEL SOME OR ALL OF THE HEADLINE WITH THE 1030PM
UPDATE.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES MONDAY WITH SWLY FLOW FROM HIGH
OFFSHORE.

WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 310154
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
954 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE RECENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PERSISTS
LATE INTO THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THESE SLOW
MOVING CELLS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF HALF TO AN INCH PER
HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE GIVEN CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM SLY FLOW. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GENERALLY WEST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE.
MIN TEMPS GENERALLY U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFFSHORE WITH SLY FLOW ADVECTION IN MOISTURE. HIGHS
WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE L90S. SCATTERED TSTMS PSBL IN
TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR
SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS
AND NEAR SHORE.

MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR
MOST.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES
KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR
AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING HAS BEEN LESS THAN EXPECTED...BUT STILL SOME 18KT
GUSTS. WILL CANCEL SOME OR ALL OF THE HEADLINE WITH THE 1030PM
UPDATE.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES MONDAY WITH SWLY FLOW FROM HIGH
OFFSHORE.

WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

DEEP MISTURE LOOKS TO RMN OVR THE GULF STATES TNGT AND MON...BUT
THE MID ATLC IS XPCRNG MID/HIGH CLDS OUT WELL AHD OF A WK LOW
ALONG THE GA/AL BRDR. THE CLD CVR HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGS AND LIMIT LOWER LVL INSTABILITY. WORST CASE SCENARIO
WOULD BE ISOLD TSTMS FORMING OVR THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.

LOWS U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

SAME PATTERN PERSISTS MON. HIGHS WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE
L90S. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR
SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS
AND NEAR SHORE.

MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR
MOST.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES
KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR
AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS PRNTLY BLO SCA VALUES. LAST EVE THERE WERE HINTS THAT SRLY
CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO GUSTS 0F 20 KT...AND THAT DID HAPPEN FOR
SVRL HRS AT TPLM2 LAST EVE. THE WRF DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG
FOR THIS EVE...SO WL AGN HOLD AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT KEEP AN EYE
ON HOW THINGS DVLP.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES DURG MON.

WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

DEEP MISTURE LOOKS TO RMN OVR THE GULF STATES TNGT AND MON...BUT
THE MID ATLC IS XPCRNG MID/HIGH CLDS OUT WELL AHD OF A WK LOW
ALONG THE GA/AL BRDR. THE CLD CVR HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGS AND LIMIT LOWER LVL INSTABILITY. WORST CASE SCENARIO
WOULD BE ISOLD TSTMS FORMING OVR THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.

LOWS U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

SAME PATTERN PERSISTS MON. HIGHS WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE
L90S. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR
SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS
AND NEAR SHORE.

MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR
MOST.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES
KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR
AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS PRNTLY BLO SCA VALUES. LAST EVE THERE WERE HINTS THAT SRLY
CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO GUSTS 0F 20 KT...AND THAT DID HAPPEN FOR
SVRL HRS AT TPLM2 LAST EVE. THE WRF DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG
FOR THIS EVE...SO WL AGN HOLD AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT KEEP AN EYE
ON HOW THINGS DVLP.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES DURG MON.

WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

DEEP MISTURE LOOKS TO RMN OVR THE GULF STATES TNGT AND MON...BUT
THE MID ATLC IS XPCRNG MID/HIGH CLDS OUT WELL AHD OF A WK LOW
ALONG THE GA/AL BRDR. THE CLD CVR HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGS AND LIMIT LOWER LVL INSTABILITY. WORST CASE SCENARIO
WOULD BE ISOLD TSTMS FORMING OVR THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.

LOWS U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

SAME PATTERN PERSISTS MON. HIGHS WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE
L90S. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR
SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS
AND NEAR SHORE.

MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR
MOST.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES
KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR
AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS PRNTLY BLO SCA VALUES. LAST EVE THERE WERE HINTS THAT SRLY
CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO GUSTS 0F 20 KT...AND THAT DID HAPPEN FOR
SVRL HRS AT TPLM2 LAST EVE. THE WRF DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG
FOR THIS EVE...SO WL AGN HOLD AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT KEEP AN EYE
ON HOW THINGS DVLP.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES DURG MON.

WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 301858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

DEEP MISTURE LOOKS TO RMN OVR THE GULF STATES TNGT AND MON...BUT
THE MID ATLC IS XPCRNG MID/HIGH CLDS OUT WELL AHD OF A WK LOW
ALONG THE GA/AL BRDR. THE CLD CVR HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGS AND LIMIT LOWER LVL INSTABILITY. WORST CASE SCENARIO
WOULD BE ISOLD TSTMS FORMING OVR THE MTNS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.

LOWS U60S/L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

SAME PATTERN PERSISTS MON. HIGHS WL AGN RANGE FM THE M80S TO THE
L90S. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL IN THE AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SHEARED OUT VORT MAX MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING...SO
LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF A SHOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OR
SO OF THE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES. LOWS IN MOST AREAS MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH 70S URBAN CENTERS
AND NEAR SHORE.

MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE HEAT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS HAVE AT
LEAST A CHANCE OF HITTING 90...WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED...ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION IN THE FAR WEST. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO PERSISTENCE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPENING IN THE WEST...SO THERE WILL BE
A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME HOW MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY IS ABLE TO SPREAD TO
THE EAST. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE WEST...BUT UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WILL STILL BE SUPPORTED FOR
MOST.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES THROUGH FRI BUT UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCES
KEEP CHANCES OF AFTRN SHOWERS AND TSTMS EACH DAY... WITH HIGHER
CHANCES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BETWEEN THU AND FRI...M80S FOR THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD THIS EVE THRU MON.

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE POSSIBLE MORNING BR
AT CHO/MRB. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CHO/MRB...WITH
LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS AND
TSTMS PSBL THU AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS PRNTLY BLO SCA VALUES. LAST EVE THERE WERE HINTS THAT SRLY
CHANNELING COULD LEAD TO GUSTS 0F 20 KT...AND THAT DID HAPPEN FOR
SVRL HRS AT TPLM2 LAST EVE. THE WRF DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS STRONG
FOR THIS EVE...SO WL AGN HOLD AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT KEEP AN EYE
ON HOW THINGS DVLP.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES DURG MON.

WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE FORECAST AT 15 KT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY REACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PSBL THU AFTRN.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 301420
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HV INCRSD CLD CVR DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MID CLD OVR THE MID ATLC
AND DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGS. RMDNR OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.

SYNOPTICALLY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HRS. HIPRES RDG
STILL RESIDES OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...PERHAPS A LTL BIT FURTHER EAST
THAN SAT MRNG. ALOFT THERE IS A S/SWLY DRIFT...WHICH IS EVIDENT FM
MID-UPR LVL CLDS STREAMING INTO VA.

NOT ONLY IS THERE HIPRES AT THE SFC...BUT THIS RDG EXTENDS UP THRU
H5...PARKED OFF HSE. THUS...SUBSIDENCE SHUD LIMIT INSTBY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWFA. LWR HGTS ACRS THE APLCNS COMBINED W/ TRRN CIRCULATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IF SHRA/TSRA DVLP THE MTNS WL BE THE LOCATION. ATTM
THREAT LOOKS A LTL LESS THAN IT DID FM YDA/S CYCLE...AND HV TRIMMED
THE AREAL CVRG THRU DUSK. 20-30 POPS AT BEST.

PVA APPROACHES AREA TNGT FM THE SW AS A SUBTLE SFC BNDRY DROPS
SWD FM THE GRTLKS. THESE TWO FEATURES SUGGEST THAT NOT ONLY WL
POPS LINGER PAST SUNSET...BUT THE CHC WL SPREAD EAST FM THE MTNS
TWD I- 95. LIKE THE AFTN...PROBS NOT HIGH /20-30 PCT/ AND QPF LVLS
LOW. CLDS MORE CERTAIN THAN PCPN. A MAJORITY OF THE TIME CUD BE
JUST MOCLDY W/O ANY RAIN. WHAT DOES FALLS MAY BE NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SPRNKLS...SPCLY DURING THE OVNGT HRS. HARD TO PROVIDE
SPECIFIC TIMING OTHER THAN HOLDING BACK ACRS THE DC/BALT BURBS
THRU MID EVNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DETAIL ISSUES LINGER INTO MON...AS THE SFC BNDRY DSPTS IN/NEAR NRN
CWFA AND PVA/MSTR CONTS TO OVERSPREAD AREA FM THE SW. NEED TO KEEP
BKN CLDS AND LOW END POPS IN THE FCST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO
THIS WEAK/DISORGANIZED FORCING...ALTHO CONFIDENCE IN GETTING WET
QUITE LOW. H5 TROF AXIS WL PROGRESS E OF AREA BY LT DAY...AND WL
OFFER UP CLRG DURING THE MID-LT AFTN INTO ELY EVNG IN ITS WAKE. SHUD
BE MOCLR BY OVNGT MON INTO ELY TUE.

AM NOT GOING QUITE A WARM FOR MAXT MON DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN CHCS.
HWVR...AS DEWPTS THREATEN TO REACH THE UPR 60S...CANT SAY THE SAME
FOR MIN-T FCST MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH DEPARTING VORT MAX TO OUR EAST...H5 HEIGHT RISES AND VERY POOR
LAPSE RATES...WITH NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES ABOVE LCL...WILL
RESULT IN A DRY DAY ACROSS CWA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP. MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE
HEAT...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES AOA 90 EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND IN U80S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...OR 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IN MANY SPOTS.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN M60S...WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE
TEMPERATURE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK LAPSE
RATES REMAIN...LEADING TO LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...WHICH WILL
PREVENT STORMS FROM REALIZING MAX CAPE. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
WEAKEN QUICKLY NEAR SUNSET...WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE RELIANCE ON
INSOLATION.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. LACK OF ADDITIONAL LIFTING MECHANISMS BEYOND DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL GENERALLY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND THE BEST
CHANCES WEST OF BLUE RIDGE. VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS AND LGT SLY FLOW WL PREVAIL THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE
MAY BE A CPL MTN SHRA/TSRA...BUT NONE SHUD IMPACT TERMINALS. PCPN
CHCS SPREAD EAST TNGT BUT STILL REMAIN W OF DC/BALT HUBS. CONFIDENCE
IN ANYTHING AFFECTING MRB/CHO TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...LOW PROB SHRA/TSRA LINGER INTO THE DAY...HWVR LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES TAF MENTION.
TUE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
WED-THU...LOW AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR NEAR ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY FLOW WL CONT THRU MON. THINK THERE WL BE ANOTHER SLY CHANNELING
EVENT TNGT...ALTHO LTST PROGS SUGGEST THAT SCA WONT BE REQUIRED. YDA
THE SAME CUD BE SAID FOR LAST NGT/THIS MRNG...SO WL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS FURTHER.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH REMAINDER OF
PERIOD. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301420
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HV INCRSD CLD CVR DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MID CLD OVR THE MID ATLC
AND DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGS. RMDNR OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.

SYNOPTICALLY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HRS. HIPRES RDG
STILL RESIDES OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...PERHAPS A LTL BIT FURTHER EAST
THAN SAT MRNG. ALOFT THERE IS A S/SWLY DRIFT...WHICH IS EVIDENT FM
MID-UPR LVL CLDS STREAMING INTO VA.

NOT ONLY IS THERE HIPRES AT THE SFC...BUT THIS RDG EXTENDS UP THRU
H5...PARKED OFF HSE. THUS...SUBSIDENCE SHUD LIMIT INSTBY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWFA. LWR HGTS ACRS THE APLCNS COMBINED W/ TRRN CIRCULATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IF SHRA/TSRA DVLP THE MTNS WL BE THE LOCATION. ATTM
THREAT LOOKS A LTL LESS THAN IT DID FM YDA/S CYCLE...AND HV TRIMMED
THE AREAL CVRG THRU DUSK. 20-30 POPS AT BEST.

PVA APPROACHES AREA TNGT FM THE SW AS A SUBTLE SFC BNDRY DROPS
SWD FM THE GRTLKS. THESE TWO FEATURES SUGGEST THAT NOT ONLY WL
POPS LINGER PAST SUNSET...BUT THE CHC WL SPREAD EAST FM THE MTNS
TWD I- 95. LIKE THE AFTN...PROBS NOT HIGH /20-30 PCT/ AND QPF LVLS
LOW. CLDS MORE CERTAIN THAN PCPN. A MAJORITY OF THE TIME CUD BE
JUST MOCLDY W/O ANY RAIN. WHAT DOES FALLS MAY BE NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SPRNKLS...SPCLY DURING THE OVNGT HRS. HARD TO PROVIDE
SPECIFIC TIMING OTHER THAN HOLDING BACK ACRS THE DC/BALT BURBS
THRU MID EVNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DETAIL ISSUES LINGER INTO MON...AS THE SFC BNDRY DSPTS IN/NEAR NRN
CWFA AND PVA/MSTR CONTS TO OVERSPREAD AREA FM THE SW. NEED TO KEEP
BKN CLDS AND LOW END POPS IN THE FCST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO
THIS WEAK/DISORGANIZED FORCING...ALTHO CONFIDENCE IN GETTING WET
QUITE LOW. H5 TROF AXIS WL PROGRESS E OF AREA BY LT DAY...AND WL
OFFER UP CLRG DURING THE MID-LT AFTN INTO ELY EVNG IN ITS WAKE. SHUD
BE MOCLR BY OVNGT MON INTO ELY TUE.

AM NOT GOING QUITE A WARM FOR MAXT MON DUE TO CLDS AND PCPN CHCS.
HWVR...AS DEWPTS THREATEN TO REACH THE UPR 60S...CANT SAY THE SAME
FOR MIN-T FCST MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH DEPARTING VORT MAX TO OUR EAST...H5 HEIGHT RISES AND VERY POOR
LAPSE RATES...WITH NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES ABOVE LCL...WILL
RESULT IN A DRY DAY ACROSS CWA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP. MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE THE
HEAT...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES AOA 90 EAST OF BLUE RIDGE AND IN U80S
WEST OF BLUE RIDGE...OR 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IN MANY SPOTS.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN M60S...WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES NEAR THE
TEMPERATURE.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK LAPSE
RATES REMAIN...LEADING TO LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...WHICH WILL
PREVENT STORMS FROM REALIZING MAX CAPE. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
WEAKEN QUICKLY NEAR SUNSET...WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE RELIANCE ON
INSOLATION.

OUR AREA REMAINS IN NNW FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. LACK OF ADDITIONAL LIFTING MECHANISMS BEYOND DAYTIME
HEATING...WILL GENERALLY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND THE BEST
CHANCES WEST OF BLUE RIDGE. VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR CONDS AND LGT SLY FLOW WL PREVAIL THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS. THERE
MAY BE A CPL MTN SHRA/TSRA...BUT NONE SHUD IMPACT TERMINALS. PCPN
CHCS SPREAD EAST TNGT BUT STILL REMAIN W OF DC/BALT HUBS. CONFIDENCE
IN ANYTHING AFFECTING MRB/CHO TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...LOW PROB SHRA/TSRA LINGER INTO THE DAY...HWVR LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES TAF MENTION.
TUE...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
WED-THU...LOW AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR NEAR ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY FLOW WL CONT THRU MON. THINK THERE WL BE ANOTHER SLY CHANNELING
EVENT TNGT...ALTHO LTST PROGS SUGGEST THAT SCA WONT BE REQUIRED. YDA
THE SAME CUD BE SAID FOR LAST NGT/THIS MRNG...SO WL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS FURTHER.

WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH REMAINDER OF
PERIOD. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/MSE





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