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000
FXUS61 KLWX 050750
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH TODAY...STALLING NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
BERMUDA THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER WESTERN NY DIPS
SOUTH...EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE LATER TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PCPN DEVELOPMENT TODAY AS NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT WITH MINIMAL ASSISTANCE OF FORCING.

THE HIGH COMBINING WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT KEEPING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOTED OVER SW PA AS OF
07Z ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT MAX. WILL MAINTAIN ISO SPRINKLES IN
FOR THE NW CORNER...BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING PCPN TO REACH THE CWA
TILL MID DAY AS THE FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THINKING DIURNAL HEATING
ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGERING SOURCE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISO TSTMS TODAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTN...THEN TAPERED POPS OFF
TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCLUSION OF THUNDER FOR THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING...THEN JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 80S.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE TEMPS FLUCTUATE A
FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO HAVE STALLED BY THE MASON-DIXON BY
TONIGHT...THEN BEGINS TO SINK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 12Z WED AS
THE UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST DEEPENS JUST ENOUGH TO
PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH WILL BE MINIMAL
THOUGH AS THE FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS INTO A BUILDING
RIDGE.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WX FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS JUST ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST.
PCPN CHC INCREASES AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROVIDING YET AGAIN A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS. WITH WINDS
TURNING E-NE BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH INJECTING IN A MORE STABLE
ATMO...THINKING THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE THUNDER THREAT. AS SUCH...HAVE
JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHC AROUND MID DAY OF THUNDER...THEN TAPERED
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WITH A S-
E FLOW HAVE A BETTER CHC OF OF WARMING MORE/REMAINING MORE UNSTABLE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY WED NIGHT...RESULTING
IN A MAINLY DRY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WED EVENING WILL TAPER
OFF BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPS STILL WELL ABV NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 50S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH POCKETS OF NEAR 60 IN THE METRO ARES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RDGG REASSERTS ITSELF THU...NOT JUST AT THE SFC BUT ALSO ALOFT. THAT
SETUP SHUD MAKE IT DFCLT FOR TSRA TO DVLP. HWVR...RESIDUAL MSTR WL
LINGER...NOT JUST IN THE FORM OF DEWPTS IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S...BUT
ALSO W/IN THE LYR. THEREFORE...XPCT A DECENT AMT OF CLDCVR. INSTBY
PUSHED BACK TWD THE MTNS...WHERE OF COURSE TRRN BASED FORCING EXISTS
TOO. IN THE END...OPTED TO KEEP A CHC SHRA/TSRA FOR THE VA PIEDMONT/
BLURDG CNTYS AS WELL AS APLCNS. CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT GREAT
THOUGH. GIVEN LMTD INSTBY/FORCING...ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE IN RAPID
DECAY BY SUNSET.

ITLL BE A SIMLR SETUP FRI-SAT. GIVEN SUCH A SMALL OPPORTUNITY...WL
BE GOING W/ A DRY FCST FOR THESE TWO DAYS. INSTBY INCREASES SUN-MON
AS RDGG SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND CDFNT APPROACHES FM THE WEST. THAT WL BE
WHEN POPS /TSTMS/ APPEAR IN THE FCST...THO ITS A SLOWER PROGRESSION
THAN FCST YDA.

PTTN WL BE WARM THRUT THE XTNDD...W/ MAXT LWR-MID 80S. THU WL BE THE
COOLEST DAY...AND TOOK FCST DOWN BY A DEGF OR TWO. GIVEN DEWPTS...
MIN-T FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD. INCRSG HIGH LVL CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN CU BY THIS AFTN WITH PCPN. BKN-OVC
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THRU WED.

WIND DIRECTION HARD TO PINPOINT TODAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS.

SCT-NUM SHRA MAINLY AFTR 18Z. ISO TSTM PSBL LATE AFTN...WILL MENTION
WITH VCTS FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF TIMING/LOCATION. BEST CHC
FOR TSTM 19-23Z. CHC RW TONIGHT INCRSG IN COVERAGE ON WED. LESS CHC
OF TSTM ON WED WITH ELY FLOW.

MAINLY VFR THU-SAT. LOW CHC FOR A LTL PREDAWN FOG AT CLIMO FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHERN TIDAL POTOMAC AND CENTRAL
CHESAPEAKE BAY THRU 10Z WITH GUSTS 18-22KTS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTR
DAYBREAK...SO ONLY KEEPING CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONES THRU THE MORNING.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY THIS AFTN...AND LASTING
THRU WED NIGHT.

FLOW WL BE LIGHT /10 KT OR LESS/ THRU THE END OF THE WEEK--ELY
THU...SELY FRI...AND EVENTUALLY SLY BY SAT. NO FLAGS XPCTD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ533-537.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 050130
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS OVER ERN OH/WRN PA WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WHERE SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPS LIMITED FROM SOUTH FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...UPR 50S
INLAND...WARMER AT ELEVATION DUE TO INVERSION...AND LOW 60S
URBAN/NEARSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FNTL BNDRY XTNDS ACROSS QUEBEC..INTO MI AND THE MIDWEST. THIS WL
BE SINKING INTO PA TNGT...WORKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LN
DURG THE DAY. POPS WL BE INCRSG DURG THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MD/ERN WV. BLV TEMPS WL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LM80S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAK TUE. THIS WL PRECLUDE ANY CNVCTN
THAT IS ABLE TO FORM FM DVLPG IN SVR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS MINOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS ON TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
ORIENTED...SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE PARENT LOW IS NEARLY OUT OF THE PICTURE TO
THE NE...WITH THE SFC FRONT STRETCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR BERMUDA. THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TERRAIN FORCING MAY PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN SHOWER DEVELOP UNDER THE
WEAK FORCING REGIME. INSTBY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHERN MD. HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD APPALACHIANS. NOT A PARTICULARLY
DRYING INFLUENCE AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.

MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE CONTINUED ABV NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THU LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE U70S AS RETURN FLOW
RECOMMENCES. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY L/M 80S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABV CLIMO NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE L60S...WHILE NOT OPPRESSIVE...THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M60S.

DAILY PRECIP CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION HARD TO NAIL DOWN
PRECISELY...AS FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. REGARDLESS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RATHER WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SVR WX. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND SO THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
LOWER TO 5-10KFT RANGE TUE...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN/MRB...ALTHO STILL
STAYING AT VFR LVLS. RW/TRW LIKELY IN THE AFTN.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LESSEN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BE RENEWED
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE SCATTERED AND BRIEF. IF A
MARINE INFLUENCE IS ESTABLISHED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SUBVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT UP THE MAIN PART
OF THE BAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING FOR SRN MD WATERS REST
OF THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NE. COULD BE A HIGHER SURGE
OF WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION AND GUSTS WILL
BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NE FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>533-
     538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 050130
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS OVER ERN OH/WRN PA WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WHERE SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPS LIMITED FROM SOUTH FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...UPR 50S
INLAND...WARMER AT ELEVATION DUE TO INVERSION...AND LOW 60S
URBAN/NEARSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FNTL BNDRY XTNDS ACROSS QUEBEC..INTO MI AND THE MIDWEST. THIS WL
BE SINKING INTO PA TNGT...WORKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LN
DURG THE DAY. POPS WL BE INCRSG DURG THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MD/ERN WV. BLV TEMPS WL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LM80S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAK TUE. THIS WL PRECLUDE ANY CNVCTN
THAT IS ABLE TO FORM FM DVLPG IN SVR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS MINOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS ON TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
ORIENTED...SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE PARENT LOW IS NEARLY OUT OF THE PICTURE TO
THE NE...WITH THE SFC FRONT STRETCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR BERMUDA. THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TERRAIN FORCING MAY PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN SHOWER DEVELOP UNDER THE
WEAK FORCING REGIME. INSTBY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHERN MD. HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD APPALACHIANS. NOT A PARTICULARLY
DRYING INFLUENCE AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.

MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE CONTINUED ABV NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THU LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE U70S AS RETURN FLOW
RECOMMENCES. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY L/M 80S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABV CLIMO NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE L60S...WHILE NOT OPPRESSIVE...THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M60S.

DAILY PRECIP CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION HARD TO NAIL DOWN
PRECISELY...AS FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. REGARDLESS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RATHER WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SVR WX. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND SO THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
LOWER TO 5-10KFT RANGE TUE...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN/MRB...ALTHO STILL
STAYING AT VFR LVLS. RW/TRW LIKELY IN THE AFTN.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LESSEN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BE RENEWED
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE SCATTERED AND BRIEF. IF A
MARINE INFLUENCE IS ESTABLISHED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SUBVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT UP THE MAIN PART
OF THE BAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING FOR SRN MD WATERS REST
OF THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NE. COULD BE A HIGHER SURGE
OF WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION AND GUSTS WILL
BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NE FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>533-
     538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 050130
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS OVER ERN OH/WRN PA WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WHERE SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPS LIMITED FROM SOUTH FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...UPR 50S
INLAND...WARMER AT ELEVATION DUE TO INVERSION...AND LOW 60S
URBAN/NEARSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FNTL BNDRY XTNDS ACROSS QUEBEC..INTO MI AND THE MIDWEST. THIS WL
BE SINKING INTO PA TNGT...WORKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LN
DURG THE DAY. POPS WL BE INCRSG DURG THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MD/ERN WV. BLV TEMPS WL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LM80S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAK TUE. THIS WL PRECLUDE ANY CNVCTN
THAT IS ABLE TO FORM FM DVLPG IN SVR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS MINOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS ON TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
ORIENTED...SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE PARENT LOW IS NEARLY OUT OF THE PICTURE TO
THE NE...WITH THE SFC FRONT STRETCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR BERMUDA. THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TERRAIN FORCING MAY PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN SHOWER DEVELOP UNDER THE
WEAK FORCING REGIME. INSTBY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHERN MD. HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD APPALACHIANS. NOT A PARTICULARLY
DRYING INFLUENCE AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.

MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE CONTINUED ABV NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THU LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE U70S AS RETURN FLOW
RECOMMENCES. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY L/M 80S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABV CLIMO NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE L60S...WHILE NOT OPPRESSIVE...THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M60S.

DAILY PRECIP CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION HARD TO NAIL DOWN
PRECISELY...AS FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. REGARDLESS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RATHER WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SVR WX. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND SO THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
LOWER TO 5-10KFT RANGE TUE...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN/MRB...ALTHO STILL
STAYING AT VFR LVLS. RW/TRW LIKELY IN THE AFTN.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LESSEN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BE RENEWED
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE SCATTERED AND BRIEF. IF A
MARINE INFLUENCE IS ESTABLISHED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SUBVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT UP THE MAIN PART
OF THE BAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING FOR SRN MD WATERS REST
OF THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NE. COULD BE A HIGHER SURGE
OF WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION AND GUSTS WILL
BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NE FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>533-
     538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 050130
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. A COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS OVER ERN OH/WRN PA WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TONIGHT WHERE SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPS LIMITED FROM SOUTH FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS...UPR 50S
INLAND...WARMER AT ELEVATION DUE TO INVERSION...AND LOW 60S
URBAN/NEARSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FNTL BNDRY XTNDS ACROSS QUEBEC..INTO MI AND THE MIDWEST. THIS WL
BE SINKING INTO PA TNGT...WORKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LN
DURG THE DAY. POPS WL BE INCRSG DURG THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MD/ERN WV. BLV TEMPS WL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LM80S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAK TUE. THIS WL PRECLUDE ANY CNVCTN
THAT IS ABLE TO FORM FM DVLPG IN SVR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS MINOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS ON TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
ORIENTED...SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE PARENT LOW IS NEARLY OUT OF THE PICTURE TO
THE NE...WITH THE SFC FRONT STRETCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR BERMUDA. THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TERRAIN FORCING MAY PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN SHOWER DEVELOP UNDER THE
WEAK FORCING REGIME. INSTBY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHERN MD. HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD APPALACHIANS. NOT A PARTICULARLY
DRYING INFLUENCE AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.

MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE CONTINUED ABV NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THU LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE U70S AS RETURN FLOW
RECOMMENCES. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY L/M 80S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABV CLIMO NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE L60S...WHILE NOT OPPRESSIVE...THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M60S.

DAILY PRECIP CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION HARD TO NAIL DOWN
PRECISELY...AS FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. REGARDLESS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RATHER WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SVR WX. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND SO THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CIGS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
LOWER TO 5-10KFT RANGE TUE...ESPECIALLY BWI/MTN/MRB...ALTHO STILL
STAYING AT VFR LVLS. RW/TRW LIKELY IN THE AFTN.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LESSEN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BE RENEWED
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE SCATTERED AND BRIEF. IF A
MARINE INFLUENCE IS ESTABLISHED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SUBVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT UP THE MAIN PART
OF THE BAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING FOR SRN MD WATERS REST
OF THE NIGHT.

COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NE. COULD BE A HIGHER SURGE
OF WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION AND GUSTS WILL
BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NE FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530>533-
     538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041857
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MOVES SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WARMESY DAY SINCE LAST SEPT COURTESY OF WAA ARND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SE CST. M80S CURRENTLY BEING XPRNCD OVR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MID ATLC. CU HV DVLPD OVR THE MTNS...BUT THESE ARE NOT XPCTD TO
GROW INTO RW/TRW.

TNGT WL BE THE CLOSEST TO "SULTRY" AS WE`VE SEEN SINCE...WELL...
SEPT. THE THING THAT IS MSG IS HIGH DWPTS...WHICH WL ACTUALLY BE
IN THE 40S AND 50S. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS LOWS WL RANGE FM THE
M50S TO THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A FNTL BNDRY XTNDS ACROSS QUEBEC..INTO MI AND THE MIDWEST. THIS WL
BE SINKING INTO PA TNGT...WORKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LN
DURG THE DAY. POPS WL BE INCRSG DURG THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MD/ERN WV. BLV TEMPS WL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LM80S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAK TUE. THIS WL PRECLUDE ANY CNVCTN
THAT IS ABLE TO FORM FM DVLPG IN SVR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THERE IS MINOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS ON TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
ORIENTED...SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE PARENT LOW IS NEARLY OUT OF THE PICTURE TO
THE NE...WITH THE SFC FRONT STRETCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR BERMUDA. THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TERRAIN FORCING MAY PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN SHOWER DEVELOP UNDER THE
WEAK FORCING REGIME. INSTBY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHERN MD. HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD APPALACHIANS. NOT A PARTICULARLY
DRYING INFLUENCE AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.

MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE CONTINUED ABV NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THU LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE U70S AS RETURN FLOW
RECOMMENCES. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY L/M 80S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABV CLIMO NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE L60S...WHILE NOT OPPRESSIVE...THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M60S.

DAILY PRECIP CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION HARD TO NAIL DOWN
PRECISELY...AS FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. REGARDLESS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RATHER WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SVR WX. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND SO THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCRS TUE...ESPECIALLY
BWI/MTN/MRB...ALTHO STILL STAYING AT VFR LVLS. RW/TRW ARE PSBL IN
THE AFTN.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LESSEN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BE RENEWED
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE SCATTERED AND BRIEF. IF A
MARINE INFLUENCE IS ESTABLISHED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SUBVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

W/ GUSTY SW WINDS HV ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS.
UPR PTMC SEEING GUSTS INTO THE L20S. SCA IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM
THERE. CHANNELING ON THE BAY XPCTD TNGT. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT
THERE.

COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NE. COULD BE A HIGHER SURGE
OF WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION AND GUSTS WILL
BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NE FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 041857
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MOVES SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WARMESY DAY SINCE LAST SEPT COURTESY OF WAA ARND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SE CST. M80S CURRENTLY BEING XPRNCD OVR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MID ATLC. CU HV DVLPD OVR THE MTNS...BUT THESE ARE NOT XPCTD TO
GROW INTO RW/TRW.

TNGT WL BE THE CLOSEST TO "SULTRY" AS WE`VE SEEN SINCE...WELL...
SEPT. THE THING THAT IS MSG IS HIGH DWPTS...WHICH WL ACTUALLY BE
IN THE 40S AND 50S. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS LOWS WL RANGE FM THE
M50S TO THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A FNTL BNDRY XTNDS ACROSS QUEBEC..INTO MI AND THE MIDWEST. THIS WL
BE SINKING INTO PA TNGT...WORKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LN
DURG THE DAY. POPS WL BE INCRSG DURG THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MD/ERN WV. BLV TEMPS WL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LM80S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAK TUE. THIS WL PRECLUDE ANY CNVCTN
THAT IS ABLE TO FORM FM DVLPG IN SVR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THERE IS MINOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS ON TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
ORIENTED...SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE PARENT LOW IS NEARLY OUT OF THE PICTURE TO
THE NE...WITH THE SFC FRONT STRETCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR BERMUDA. THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TERRAIN FORCING MAY PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN SHOWER DEVELOP UNDER THE
WEAK FORCING REGIME. INSTBY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHERN MD. HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD APPALACHIANS. NOT A PARTICULARLY
DRYING INFLUENCE AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.

MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE CONTINUED ABV NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THU LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE U70S AS RETURN FLOW
RECOMMENCES. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY L/M 80S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABV CLIMO NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE L60S...WHILE NOT OPPRESSIVE...THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M60S.

DAILY PRECIP CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION HARD TO NAIL DOWN
PRECISELY...AS FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. REGARDLESS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RATHER WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SVR WX. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND SO THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCRS TUE...ESPECIALLY
BWI/MTN/MRB...ALTHO STILL STAYING AT VFR LVLS. RW/TRW ARE PSBL IN
THE AFTN.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LESSEN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BE RENEWED
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE SCATTERED AND BRIEF. IF A
MARINE INFLUENCE IS ESTABLISHED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SUBVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

W/ GUSTY SW WINDS HV ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS.
UPR PTMC SEEING GUSTS INTO THE L20S. SCA IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM
THERE. CHANNELING ON THE BAY XPCTD TNGT. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT
THERE.

COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NE. COULD BE A HIGHER SURGE
OF WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION AND GUSTS WILL
BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NE FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041857
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MOVES SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WARMESY DAY SINCE LAST SEPT COURTESY OF WAA ARND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SE CST. M80S CURRENTLY BEING XPRNCD OVR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MID ATLC. CU HV DVLPD OVR THE MTNS...BUT THESE ARE NOT XPCTD TO
GROW INTO RW/TRW.

TNGT WL BE THE CLOSEST TO "SULTRY" AS WE`VE SEEN SINCE...WELL...
SEPT. THE THING THAT IS MSG IS HIGH DWPTS...WHICH WL ACTUALLY BE
IN THE 40S AND 50S. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS LOWS WL RANGE FM THE
M50S TO THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A FNTL BNDRY XTNDS ACROSS QUEBEC..INTO MI AND THE MIDWEST. THIS WL
BE SINKING INTO PA TNGT...WORKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LN
DURG THE DAY. POPS WL BE INCRSG DURG THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MD/ERN WV. BLV TEMPS WL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LM80S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAK TUE. THIS WL PRECLUDE ANY CNVCTN
THAT IS ABLE TO FORM FM DVLPG IN SVR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THERE IS MINOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS ON TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
ORIENTED...SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE PARENT LOW IS NEARLY OUT OF THE PICTURE TO
THE NE...WITH THE SFC FRONT STRETCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR BERMUDA. THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TERRAIN FORCING MAY PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN SHOWER DEVELOP UNDER THE
WEAK FORCING REGIME. INSTBY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHERN MD. HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD APPALACHIANS. NOT A PARTICULARLY
DRYING INFLUENCE AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.

MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE CONTINUED ABV NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THU LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE U70S AS RETURN FLOW
RECOMMENCES. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY L/M 80S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABV CLIMO NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE L60S...WHILE NOT OPPRESSIVE...THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M60S.

DAILY PRECIP CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION HARD TO NAIL DOWN
PRECISELY...AS FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. REGARDLESS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RATHER WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SVR WX. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND SO THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCRS TUE...ESPECIALLY
BWI/MTN/MRB...ALTHO STILL STAYING AT VFR LVLS. RW/TRW ARE PSBL IN
THE AFTN.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LESSEN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BE RENEWED
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE SCATTERED AND BRIEF. IF A
MARINE INFLUENCE IS ESTABLISHED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SUBVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

W/ GUSTY SW WINDS HV ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS.
UPR PTMC SEEING GUSTS INTO THE L20S. SCA IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM
THERE. CHANNELING ON THE BAY XPCTD TNGT. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT
THERE.

COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NE. COULD BE A HIGHER SURGE
OF WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION AND GUSTS WILL
BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NE FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041857
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
257 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MOVES SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

WARMESY DAY SINCE LAST SEPT COURTESY OF WAA ARND HIGH PRES OFF THE
SE CST. M80S CURRENTLY BEING XPRNCD OVR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MID ATLC. CU HV DVLPD OVR THE MTNS...BUT THESE ARE NOT XPCTD TO
GROW INTO RW/TRW.

TNGT WL BE THE CLOSEST TO "SULTRY" AS WE`VE SEEN SINCE...WELL...
SEPT. THE THING THAT IS MSG IS HIGH DWPTS...WHICH WL ACTUALLY BE
IN THE 40S AND 50S. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS LOWS WL RANGE FM THE
M50S TO THE M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A FNTL BNDRY XTNDS ACROSS QUEBEC..INTO MI AND THE MIDWEST. THIS WL
BE SINKING INTO PA TNGT...WORKING SLOWLY TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LN
DURG THE DAY. POPS WL BE INCRSG DURG THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MD/ERN WV. BLV TEMPS WL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LM80S OVR MUCH OF
THE AREA.

THE WIND FIELD ALOFT IS WEAK TUE. THIS WL PRECLUDE ANY CNVCTN
THAT IS ABLE TO FORM FM DVLPG IN SVR STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THERE IS MINOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODELS ON TIMING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS COULD HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES AND WHERE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE
ORIENTED...SENSIBLE WX IMPACTS WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE PARENT LOW IS NEARLY OUT OF THE PICTURE TO
THE NE...WITH THE SFC FRONT STRETCHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR BERMUDA. THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL
DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHEST SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TERRAIN FORCING MAY PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN SHOWER DEVELOP UNDER THE
WEAK FORCING REGIME. INSTBY REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHERN MD. HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS TOWARD APPALACHIANS. NOT A PARTICULARLY
DRYING INFLUENCE AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.

MAIN STORY DURING THE EXTENDED WILL BE CONTINUED ABV NORMAL TEMPS
WITH LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP.  THU LIKELY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE U70S AS RETURN FLOW
RECOMMENCES. HIGH TEMPS LIKELY L/M 80S DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABV CLIMO NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO RISE INTO THE L60S...WHILE NOT OPPRESSIVE...THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS IN M60S.

DAILY PRECIP CHANCES FOR ANY ONE LOCATION HARD TO NAIL DOWN
PRECISELY...AS FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND WILL BE PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. REGARDLESS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR RATHER WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING ORGANIZED SVR WX. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND SO THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER T-STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCRS TUE...ESPECIALLY
BWI/MTN/MRB...ALTHO STILL STAYING AT VFR LVLS. RW/TRW ARE PSBL IN
THE AFTN.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL LESSEN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BE RENEWED
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE SCATTERED AND BRIEF. IF A
MARINE INFLUENCE IS ESTABLISHED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SUBVFR
CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

W/ GUSTY SW WINDS HV ISSUED AN SCA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS.
UPR PTMC SEEING GUSTS INTO THE L20S. SCA IN EFFECT THRU 8 PM
THERE. CHANNELING ON THE BAY XPCTD TNGT. SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT
THERE.

COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO NE. COULD BE A HIGHER SURGE
OF WINDS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION AND GUSTS WILL
BE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT NE FLOW INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NOT EXPECTING MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/ADS/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 041440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MOVES SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY...SETTLING TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...S-SW FLOW WILL BE
PERSISTENT. WAA ON THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD WARM UP FOR THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ALL MESO MODELS SUGGESTING ISO PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY/DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN WV. HAVE INCLUSION OF LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT MAKES IF OVER THE RIDGE LINE. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ANY LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TREKKING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
STRADDLING PA BY 12Z TUES. WILL INTRODUCE POPS AROUND DAYBREAK
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OF WESTERN MD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTS
PLACEMENT AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
THRU TUES MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE THRU TUES NIGHT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT...SO EXPECTING ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT TUES TO BE
CONFINED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE.
HAVE CHC POPS IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS...TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE PERIOD. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 80S YET AGAIN...AND SW
FLOW INJECTING IN MORE MOIST AIR...MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS PSBL.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ENOUGH WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER AN ISO TSTM. SO WILL HAVE THUNDER MENTION FOR
TUES AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OUT FOR TUES NIGHT. POPS DECREASE SECOND HALF OF TUES
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CDFNT WL CONT TO SAG INTO THE CWFA WED...WHICH WL PROVIDE SRN
CNTYS WITH A BETTER CHC AT SEEING PCPN. HWVR...THE FNT WL BE
BUMPING INTO THE H5 RDG...SO NOT ONLY WL SRN PROGRESS BE SLOW BUT
ALSO SUSPECT THERE WL BE A WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE WL NOT BE
GOING W/ POPS HIER THAN CHC. SUCH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A SUMMER
AMS WL YIELD A LTL INSTBY...BUT THAT WL BE UNDERCUT BY ELY SFC
FLOW. AM KEEPING SCHC THUNDER IN GRIDS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY
STORMS WL BE A REALLY BIG DEAL. TAPERED MAXT BACK A PINCH DUE TO
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE... BUT TIMING OF NOT JUST THE FNT BUT ALSO
THE WINDS AND ANY PCPN WL UNLIMATELY DETERMINE THE MAXT OUTCOME.

FNT LOOKS TO WASH OUT THU...W/ RDGG MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE THRU
SAT. DRY FCST. TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND REFLECTS ADTL WARMING
DAILY. THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON THU DUE TO RESIDUAL MSTR...BUT WL
BE PTSUN AT WORST FOR CENTRAL VA/SRN MD. OTRW...MOSUN-SUNNY THRU
THE PD. NEXT FNT MAY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISO TSTM ON TUES...MAINLY AFTR
18Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCHO.

LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF SHRA WED...OTRW VFR THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. INCRSG SLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD
RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A CHANNELING EFFECT TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 20
KTS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WATERS. SCA IN
EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTN FOR THIS. FOR
TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA OVER THE NORTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THEN THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE MID CHESAPEAKE ZONE THRU TUES
MORNING...WITH PSBL EXTENSION INTO TUES IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO SHIFT
TO A WEST COMPONENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS FOR TUES NIGHT.

ELY FLOW BHD A CDFNT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD WED. MAY HV A BRIEF
SURGE IN WIND SPDS...BUT MIXING SHUDNT BE THAT GREAT. WL BE
CAPPING WINDS AT 15 KT. AFTER THAT...WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE ONCE AGAIN /AOB 10 KT/ UNDER A RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE WARMEST AIR MASS OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS MOVING OVER THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>533.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...APS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 041440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MOVES SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY...SETTLING TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...S-SW FLOW WILL BE
PERSISTENT. WAA ON THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD WARM UP FOR THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ALL MESO MODELS SUGGESTING ISO PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY/DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN WV. HAVE INCLUSION OF LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT MAKES IF OVER THE RIDGE LINE. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ANY LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TREKKING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
STRADDLING PA BY 12Z TUES. WILL INTRODUCE POPS AROUND DAYBREAK
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OF WESTERN MD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTS
PLACEMENT AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
THRU TUES MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE THRU TUES NIGHT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT...SO EXPECTING ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT TUES TO BE
CONFINED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE.
HAVE CHC POPS IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS...TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE PERIOD. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 80S YET AGAIN...AND SW
FLOW INJECTING IN MORE MOIST AIR...MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS PSBL.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ENOUGH WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER AN ISO TSTM. SO WILL HAVE THUNDER MENTION FOR
TUES AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OUT FOR TUES NIGHT. POPS DECREASE SECOND HALF OF TUES
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CDFNT WL CONT TO SAG INTO THE CWFA WED...WHICH WL PROVIDE SRN
CNTYS WITH A BETTER CHC AT SEEING PCPN. HWVR...THE FNT WL BE
BUMPING INTO THE H5 RDG...SO NOT ONLY WL SRN PROGRESS BE SLOW BUT
ALSO SUSPECT THERE WL BE A WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE WL NOT BE
GOING W/ POPS HIER THAN CHC. SUCH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A SUMMER
AMS WL YIELD A LTL INSTBY...BUT THAT WL BE UNDERCUT BY ELY SFC
FLOW. AM KEEPING SCHC THUNDER IN GRIDS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY
STORMS WL BE A REALLY BIG DEAL. TAPERED MAXT BACK A PINCH DUE TO
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE... BUT TIMING OF NOT JUST THE FNT BUT ALSO
THE WINDS AND ANY PCPN WL UNLIMATELY DETERMINE THE MAXT OUTCOME.

FNT LOOKS TO WASH OUT THU...W/ RDGG MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE THRU
SAT. DRY FCST. TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND REFLECTS ADTL WARMING
DAILY. THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON THU DUE TO RESIDUAL MSTR...BUT WL
BE PTSUN AT WORST FOR CENTRAL VA/SRN MD. OTRW...MOSUN-SUNNY THRU
THE PD. NEXT FNT MAY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISO TSTM ON TUES...MAINLY AFTR
18Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCHO.

LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF SHRA WED...OTRW VFR THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. INCRSG SLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD
RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A CHANNELING EFFECT TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 20
KTS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WATERS. SCA IN
EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTN FOR THIS. FOR
TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA OVER THE NORTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THEN THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE MID CHESAPEAKE ZONE THRU TUES
MORNING...WITH PSBL EXTENSION INTO TUES IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO SHIFT
TO A WEST COMPONENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS FOR TUES NIGHT.

ELY FLOW BHD A CDFNT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD WED. MAY HV A BRIEF
SURGE IN WIND SPDS...BUT MIXING SHUDNT BE THAT GREAT. WL BE
CAPPING WINDS AT 15 KT. AFTER THAT...WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE ONCE AGAIN /AOB 10 KT/ UNDER A RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE WARMEST AIR MASS OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS MOVING OVER THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>533.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...APS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 041440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MOVES SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY...SETTLING TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...S-SW FLOW WILL BE
PERSISTENT. WAA ON THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD WARM UP FOR THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ALL MESO MODELS SUGGESTING ISO PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY/DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN WV. HAVE INCLUSION OF LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT MAKES IF OVER THE RIDGE LINE. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ANY LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TREKKING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
STRADDLING PA BY 12Z TUES. WILL INTRODUCE POPS AROUND DAYBREAK
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OF WESTERN MD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTS
PLACEMENT AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
THRU TUES MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE THRU TUES NIGHT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT...SO EXPECTING ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT TUES TO BE
CONFINED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE.
HAVE CHC POPS IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS...TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE PERIOD. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 80S YET AGAIN...AND SW
FLOW INJECTING IN MORE MOIST AIR...MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS PSBL.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ENOUGH WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER AN ISO TSTM. SO WILL HAVE THUNDER MENTION FOR
TUES AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OUT FOR TUES NIGHT. POPS DECREASE SECOND HALF OF TUES
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CDFNT WL CONT TO SAG INTO THE CWFA WED...WHICH WL PROVIDE SRN
CNTYS WITH A BETTER CHC AT SEEING PCPN. HWVR...THE FNT WL BE
BUMPING INTO THE H5 RDG...SO NOT ONLY WL SRN PROGRESS BE SLOW BUT
ALSO SUSPECT THERE WL BE A WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE WL NOT BE
GOING W/ POPS HIER THAN CHC. SUCH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A SUMMER
AMS WL YIELD A LTL INSTBY...BUT THAT WL BE UNDERCUT BY ELY SFC
FLOW. AM KEEPING SCHC THUNDER IN GRIDS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY
STORMS WL BE A REALLY BIG DEAL. TAPERED MAXT BACK A PINCH DUE TO
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE... BUT TIMING OF NOT JUST THE FNT BUT ALSO
THE WINDS AND ANY PCPN WL UNLIMATELY DETERMINE THE MAXT OUTCOME.

FNT LOOKS TO WASH OUT THU...W/ RDGG MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE THRU
SAT. DRY FCST. TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND REFLECTS ADTL WARMING
DAILY. THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON THU DUE TO RESIDUAL MSTR...BUT WL
BE PTSUN AT WORST FOR CENTRAL VA/SRN MD. OTRW...MOSUN-SUNNY THRU
THE PD. NEXT FNT MAY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISO TSTM ON TUES...MAINLY AFTR
18Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCHO.

LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF SHRA WED...OTRW VFR THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. INCRSG SLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD
RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A CHANNELING EFFECT TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 20
KTS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WATERS. SCA IN
EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTN FOR THIS. FOR
TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA OVER THE NORTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THEN THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE MID CHESAPEAKE ZONE THRU TUES
MORNING...WITH PSBL EXTENSION INTO TUES IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO SHIFT
TO A WEST COMPONENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS FOR TUES NIGHT.

ELY FLOW BHD A CDFNT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD WED. MAY HV A BRIEF
SURGE IN WIND SPDS...BUT MIXING SHUDNT BE THAT GREAT. WL BE
CAPPING WINDS AT 15 KT. AFTER THAT...WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE ONCE AGAIN /AOB 10 KT/ UNDER A RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE WARMEST AIR MASS OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS MOVING OVER THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>533.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...APS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 041440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH...STALLING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND MOVES SLOWLY UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY...SETTLING TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...S-SW FLOW WILL BE
PERSISTENT. WAA ON THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD WARM UP FOR THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ALL MESO MODELS SUGGESTING ISO PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY/DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN WV. HAVE INCLUSION OF LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT MAKES IF OVER THE RIDGE LINE. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ANY LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TREKKING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
STRADDLING PA BY 12Z TUES. WILL INTRODUCE POPS AROUND DAYBREAK
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OF WESTERN MD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTS
PLACEMENT AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
THRU TUES MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE THRU TUES NIGHT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT...SO EXPECTING ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT TUES TO BE
CONFINED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE.
HAVE CHC POPS IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS...TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE PERIOD. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 80S YET AGAIN...AND SW
FLOW INJECTING IN MORE MOIST AIR...MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS PSBL.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ENOUGH WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER AN ISO TSTM. SO WILL HAVE THUNDER MENTION FOR
TUES AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OUT FOR TUES NIGHT. POPS DECREASE SECOND HALF OF TUES
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

CDFNT WL CONT TO SAG INTO THE CWFA WED...WHICH WL PROVIDE SRN
CNTYS WITH A BETTER CHC AT SEEING PCPN. HWVR...THE FNT WL BE
BUMPING INTO THE H5 RDG...SO NOT ONLY WL SRN PROGRESS BE SLOW BUT
ALSO SUSPECT THERE WL BE A WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE WL NOT BE
GOING W/ POPS HIER THAN CHC. SUCH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A SUMMER
AMS WL YIELD A LTL INSTBY...BUT THAT WL BE UNDERCUT BY ELY SFC
FLOW. AM KEEPING SCHC THUNDER IN GRIDS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY
STORMS WL BE A REALLY BIG DEAL. TAPERED MAXT BACK A PINCH DUE TO
THE MARITIME INFLUENCE... BUT TIMING OF NOT JUST THE FNT BUT ALSO
THE WINDS AND ANY PCPN WL UNLIMATELY DETERMINE THE MAXT OUTCOME.

FNT LOOKS TO WASH OUT THU...W/ RDGG MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE THRU
SAT. DRY FCST. TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND REFLECTS ADTL WARMING
DAILY. THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON THU DUE TO RESIDUAL MSTR...BUT WL
BE PTSUN AT WORST FOR CENTRAL VA/SRN MD. OTRW...MOSUN-SUNNY THRU
THE PD. NEXT FNT MAY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.

INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISO TSTM ON TUES...MAINLY AFTR
18Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCHO.

LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF SHRA WED...OTRW VFR THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. INCRSG SLY FLOW TODAY SHOULD
RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A CHANNELING EFFECT TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 20
KTS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WATERS. SCA IN
EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTN FOR THIS. FOR
TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA OVER THE NORTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THEN THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE MID CHESAPEAKE ZONE THRU TUES
MORNING...WITH PSBL EXTENSION INTO TUES IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO SHIFT
TO A WEST COMPONENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS FOR TUES NIGHT.

ELY FLOW BHD A CDFNT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD WED. MAY HV A BRIEF
SURGE IN WIND SPDS...BUT MIXING SHUDNT BE THAT GREAT. WL BE
CAPPING WINDS AT 15 KT. AFTER THAT...WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE ONCE AGAIN /AOB 10 KT/ UNDER A RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE WARMEST AIR MASS OF THE YEAR SO FAR IS MOVING OVER THE AREA
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ538-539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>533.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...APS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040738
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY...SETTLING TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...S-SW FLOW WILL BE
PERSISTENT. WAA ON THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD WARM UP FOR THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ALL MESO MODELS SUGGESTING ISO PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY/DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN WV. HAVE INCLUSION OF LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT MAKES IF OVER THE RIDGE LINE. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TREKKING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
STRADDLING PA BY 12Z TUES. WILL INTRODUCE POPS AROUND DAYBREAK
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OF WESTERN MD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTS
PLACEMENT AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
THRU TUES MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE THRU TUES NIGHT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT...SO EXPECTING ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT TUES TO BE
CONFINED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE.
HAVE CHC POPS IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS...TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE PERIOD. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 80S YET AGAIN...AND SW
FLOW INJECTING IN MORE MOIST AIR...MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS PSBL.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ENOUGH WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER AN ISO TSTM. SO WILL HAVE THUNDER MENTION FOR
TUES AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OUT FOR TUES NIGHT. POPS DECREASE SECOND HALF OF TUES
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT WL CONT TO SAG INTO AND PERHAPS THRU CWFA WED...WHICH WL
PROVIDE SRN CNTYS WITH A BETTER CHC AT SEEING PCPN. HWVR...THE FNT
WL BE BUMPING INTO THE H5 RDG...SO NOT ONLY WL SRN PROGRESS BE SLOW
BUT ALSO SUSPECT THERE WL BE A WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE WL NOT BE
GOING W/ POPS HIER THAN CHC. SUCH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A SUMMER AMS
WL YIELD A LTL INSTBY...BUT THAT WL BE UNDERCUT BY ELY SFC FLOW. AM
KEEPING SCHC THUNDER IN GRIDS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY STORMS WL BE A
REALLY BIG DEAL. TAPERED MAXT BACK A PINCH DUE TO THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE... BUT TIMING OF NOT JUST THE FNT BUT ALSO THE WINDS AND
ANY PCPN WL UNLIMATELY DETERMINE THE MAXT OUTCOME.

FNT LOOKS TO WASH OUT THU...W/ RDGG MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE THRU
SAT. DRY FCST. TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND REFLECTS ADDTL WARMING
DAILY. THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON THU DUE TO RESIDUAL MSTR...BUT WL BE
PTSUN AT WORST FOR CENTRAL VA/SRN MD. OTRW...MOSUN-SUNNY THRU THE
PD. NEXT FNT MAY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS
AFTN...MAINLY KIAD/KBWI/KMTN...THOUGH STAYING GENERALLY LESS THAN
20 KTS. SLY FLOW WILL BECOME SW-W BY TUES MORNING.

ANY PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES.
INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISO TSTM ON TUES...MAINLY AFTR
18Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCHO.

LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF SHRA WED...OTRW VFR THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS MORNING. INCRSG SLY FLOW TODAY
SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A TUNNELING EFFECT TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO
20 KTS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WATERS. SCA
IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA OVER THE
NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THEN THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE MID CHESAPEAKE ZONE
THRU TUES MORNING...WITH PSBL EXTENSION INTO TUES IF WINDS ARE
SLOW TO SHIFT TO A WEST COMPONENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS
FOR TUES NIGHT.

ELY FLOW BHD A CDFNT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD WED. MAY HV A BREIF SURGE
IN WIND SPDS...BUT MIXING SHUDNT BE THAT GREAT. WL BE CAPPING WINDS
AT 15 KT. AFTER THAT...WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE ONCE AGAIN
/AOB 10 KT/ UNDER A RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
CLIMATE...DH





000
FXUS61 KLWX 040738
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY...SETTLING TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...S-SW FLOW WILL BE
PERSISTENT. WAA ON THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD WARM UP FOR THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ALL MESO MODELS SUGGESTING ISO PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY/DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN WV. HAVE INCLUSION OF LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT MAKES IF OVER THE RIDGE LINE. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TREKKING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
STRADDLING PA BY 12Z TUES. WILL INTRODUCE POPS AROUND DAYBREAK
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OF WESTERN MD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTS
PLACEMENT AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
THRU TUES MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE THRU TUES NIGHT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT...SO EXPECTING ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT TUES TO BE
CONFINED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE.
HAVE CHC POPS IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS...TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE PERIOD. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 80S YET AGAIN...AND SW
FLOW INJECTING IN MORE MOIST AIR...MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS PSBL.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ENOUGH WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER AN ISO TSTM. SO WILL HAVE THUNDER MENTION FOR
TUES AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OUT FOR TUES NIGHT. POPS DECREASE SECOND HALF OF TUES
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT WL CONT TO SAG INTO AND PERHAPS THRU CWFA WED...WHICH WL
PROVIDE SRN CNTYS WITH A BETTER CHC AT SEEING PCPN. HWVR...THE FNT
WL BE BUMPING INTO THE H5 RDG...SO NOT ONLY WL SRN PROGRESS BE SLOW
BUT ALSO SUSPECT THERE WL BE A WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE WL NOT BE
GOING W/ POPS HIER THAN CHC. SUCH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A SUMMER AMS
WL YIELD A LTL INSTBY...BUT THAT WL BE UNDERCUT BY ELY SFC FLOW. AM
KEEPING SCHC THUNDER IN GRIDS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY STORMS WL BE A
REALLY BIG DEAL. TAPERED MAXT BACK A PINCH DUE TO THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE... BUT TIMING OF NOT JUST THE FNT BUT ALSO THE WINDS AND
ANY PCPN WL UNLIMATELY DETERMINE THE MAXT OUTCOME.

FNT LOOKS TO WASH OUT THU...W/ RDGG MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE THRU
SAT. DRY FCST. TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND REFLECTS ADDTL WARMING
DAILY. THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON THU DUE TO RESIDUAL MSTR...BUT WL BE
PTSUN AT WORST FOR CENTRAL VA/SRN MD. OTRW...MOSUN-SUNNY THRU THE
PD. NEXT FNT MAY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS
AFTN...MAINLY KIAD/KBWI/KMTN...THOUGH STAYING GENERALLY LESS THAN
20 KTS. SLY FLOW WILL BECOME SW-W BY TUES MORNING.

ANY PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES.
INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISO TSTM ON TUES...MAINLY AFTR
18Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCHO.

LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF SHRA WED...OTRW VFR THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS MORNING. INCRSG SLY FLOW TODAY
SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A TUNNELING EFFECT TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO
20 KTS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WATERS. SCA
IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA OVER THE
NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THEN THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE MID CHESAPEAKE ZONE
THRU TUES MORNING...WITH PSBL EXTENSION INTO TUES IF WINDS ARE
SLOW TO SHIFT TO A WEST COMPONENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS
FOR TUES NIGHT.

ELY FLOW BHD A CDFNT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD WED. MAY HV A BREIF SURGE
IN WIND SPDS...BUT MIXING SHUDNT BE THAT GREAT. WL BE CAPPING WINDS
AT 15 KT. AFTER THAT...WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE ONCE AGAIN
/AOB 10 KT/ UNDER A RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
CLIMATE...DH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040738
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY...SETTLING TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...S-SW FLOW WILL BE
PERSISTENT. WAA ON THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD WARM UP FOR THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ALL MESO MODELS SUGGESTING ISO PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY/DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN WV. HAVE INCLUSION OF LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT MAKES IF OVER THE RIDGE LINE. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TREKKING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
STRADDLING PA BY 12Z TUES. WILL INTRODUCE POPS AROUND DAYBREAK
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OF WESTERN MD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTS
PLACEMENT AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
THRU TUES MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE THRU TUES NIGHT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT...SO EXPECTING ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT TUES TO BE
CONFINED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE.
HAVE CHC POPS IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS...TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE PERIOD. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 80S YET AGAIN...AND SW
FLOW INJECTING IN MORE MOIST AIR...MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS PSBL.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ENOUGH WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER AN ISO TSTM. SO WILL HAVE THUNDER MENTION FOR
TUES AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OUT FOR TUES NIGHT. POPS DECREASE SECOND HALF OF TUES
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT WL CONT TO SAG INTO AND PERHAPS THRU CWFA WED...WHICH WL
PROVIDE SRN CNTYS WITH A BETTER CHC AT SEEING PCPN. HWVR...THE FNT
WL BE BUMPING INTO THE H5 RDG...SO NOT ONLY WL SRN PROGRESS BE SLOW
BUT ALSO SUSPECT THERE WL BE A WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE WL NOT BE
GOING W/ POPS HIER THAN CHC. SUCH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A SUMMER AMS
WL YIELD A LTL INSTBY...BUT THAT WL BE UNDERCUT BY ELY SFC FLOW. AM
KEEPING SCHC THUNDER IN GRIDS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY STORMS WL BE A
REALLY BIG DEAL. TAPERED MAXT BACK A PINCH DUE TO THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE... BUT TIMING OF NOT JUST THE FNT BUT ALSO THE WINDS AND
ANY PCPN WL UNLIMATELY DETERMINE THE MAXT OUTCOME.

FNT LOOKS TO WASH OUT THU...W/ RDGG MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE THRU
SAT. DRY FCST. TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND REFLECTS ADDTL WARMING
DAILY. THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON THU DUE TO RESIDUAL MSTR...BUT WL BE
PTSUN AT WORST FOR CENTRAL VA/SRN MD. OTRW...MOSUN-SUNNY THRU THE
PD. NEXT FNT MAY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS
AFTN...MAINLY KIAD/KBWI/KMTN...THOUGH STAYING GENERALLY LESS THAN
20 KTS. SLY FLOW WILL BECOME SW-W BY TUES MORNING.

ANY PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES.
INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISO TSTM ON TUES...MAINLY AFTR
18Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCHO.

LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF SHRA WED...OTRW VFR THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS MORNING. INCRSG SLY FLOW TODAY
SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A TUNNELING EFFECT TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO
20 KTS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WATERS. SCA
IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA OVER THE
NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THEN THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE MID CHESAPEAKE ZONE
THRU TUES MORNING...WITH PSBL EXTENSION INTO TUES IF WINDS ARE
SLOW TO SHIFT TO A WEST COMPONENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS
FOR TUES NIGHT.

ELY FLOW BHD A CDFNT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD WED. MAY HV A BREIF SURGE
IN WIND SPDS...BUT MIXING SHUDNT BE THAT GREAT. WL BE CAPPING WINDS
AT 15 KT. AFTER THAT...WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE ONCE AGAIN
/AOB 10 KT/ UNDER A RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
CLIMATE...DH





000
FXUS61 KLWX 040738
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY...STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE TODAY...SETTLING TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...S-SW FLOW WILL BE
PERSISTENT. WAA ON THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD WARM UP FOR THE
AREA...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE 80S...THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

ALL MESO MODELS SUGGESTING ISO PCPN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY/DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE SUGGESTION OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN WV. HAVE INCLUSION OF LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT THAT MAKES IF OVER THE RIDGE LINE. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE VERY LIGHT IN NATURE AND SHORT LIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PCPN THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRY WX THEN EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE TREKKING THRU SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT
STRADDLING PA BY 12Z TUES. WILL INTRODUCE POPS AROUND DAYBREAK
NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE OF WESTERN MD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTS
PLACEMENT AS WELL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE
THRU TUES MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT NUDGES SOUTH DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE THRU TUES NIGHT. NEAR ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ALOFT...SO EXPECTING ANY PCPN DEVELOPMENT TUES TO BE
CONFINED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE BEST SFC CONVERGENCE.
HAVE CHC POPS IN OVER NORTHERN AREAS...TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT TO REMAIN DRY
THRU THE PERIOD. WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 80S YET AGAIN...AND SW
FLOW INJECTING IN MORE MOIST AIR...MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS PSBL.
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE...BUT ENOUGH WITH THE
INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER AN ISO TSTM. SO WILL HAVE THUNDER MENTION FOR
TUES AFTN. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL KEEP THUNDER
MENTION OUT FOR TUES NIGHT. POPS DECREASE SECOND HALF OF TUES
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT WL CONT TO SAG INTO AND PERHAPS THRU CWFA WED...WHICH WL
PROVIDE SRN CNTYS WITH A BETTER CHC AT SEEING PCPN. HWVR...THE FNT
WL BE BUMPING INTO THE H5 RDG...SO NOT ONLY WL SRN PROGRESS BE SLOW
BUT ALSO SUSPECT THERE WL BE A WEAKENING TREND. THEREFORE WL NOT BE
GOING W/ POPS HIER THAN CHC. SUCH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A SUMMER AMS
WL YIELD A LTL INSTBY...BUT THAT WL BE UNDERCUT BY ELY SFC FLOW. AM
KEEPING SCHC THUNDER IN GRIDS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE ANY STORMS WL BE A
REALLY BIG DEAL. TAPERED MAXT BACK A PINCH DUE TO THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE... BUT TIMING OF NOT JUST THE FNT BUT ALSO THE WINDS AND
ANY PCPN WL UNLIMATELY DETERMINE THE MAXT OUTCOME.

FNT LOOKS TO WASH OUT THU...W/ RDGG MAINTAINING ITS INFLUENCE THRU
SAT. DRY FCST. TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE...AND REFLECTS ADDTL WARMING
DAILY. THERE WL BE MORE CLDS ON THU DUE TO RESIDUAL MSTR...BUT WL BE
PTSUN AT WORST FOR CENTRAL VA/SRN MD. OTRW...MOSUN-SUNNY THRU THE
PD. NEXT FNT MAY ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. OCNL GUSTS PSBL THIS
AFTN...MAINLY KIAD/KBWI/KMTN...THOUGH STAYING GENERALLY LESS THAN
20 KTS. SLY FLOW WILL BECOME SW-W BY TUES MORNING.

ANY PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES.
INCRSG CHC OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISO TSTM ON TUES...MAINLY AFTR
18Z FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCHO.

LCL FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL INVOF SHRA WED...OTRW VFR THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS INITIALLY THIS MORNING. INCRSG SLY FLOW TODAY
SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH OF A TUNNELING EFFECT TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO
20 KTS FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WATERS. SCA
IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES BEGINNING THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO SUB-SCA OVER THE
NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND THEN THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE MID CHESAPEAKE ZONE
THRU TUES MORNING...WITH PSBL EXTENSION INTO TUES IF WINDS ARE
SLOW TO SHIFT TO A WEST COMPONENT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ALL WATERS
FOR TUES NIGHT.

ELY FLOW BHD A CDFNT DROPPING SLOWLY SWD WED. MAY HV A BREIF SURGE
IN WIND SPDS...BUT MIXING SHUDNT BE THAT GREAT. WL BE CAPPING WINDS
AT 15 KT. AFTER THAT...WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE ONCE AGAIN
/AOB 10 KT/ UNDER A RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
CLIMATE...DH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
BERMUDA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY IN THE AREA DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...1023MB MSLP ALONG THE NC COAST WITH A SOUTH FLOW
IMPLYING HIGHER PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST...APPROACHING BERMUDA MONDAY. A TROUGH IS OVER THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC.

MOSTLY CLEAR (JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS) TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SWLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH (IF ANY). MINS AROUND 50F INLAND WITH AN INVERSION
FOR RIDGES AND LOW 60S NEARSHORE/URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AND MON WL BE THE WARMEST DAY THE AREA HAS XPRNCD SINCE LAST SEPT
(SEE CLIMATE SXN BLO). HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE LM80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WANDERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF DECAYING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...SO SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE JET/SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...SO SURFACE FRONTAL AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED UNLESS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM AND FINDS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY EVENING /LOW PROBABILITY/.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHUT OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE CYCLE REPEATS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT
DROPS THROUGH.

COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA ON WED...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURS. COLD FRONT THEN LIFTS NE
AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND FRONT. UPSLOPING FACTOR FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF
THE SE COAST... AND DEPENDING ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...IT COULD BRING PRECIP
TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUN ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGH TUES AM. LIGHT SWLY FLOW TONIGHT (OR CALM)
AND SLY/SWLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PSBL BRIEF/SPOTTY SUB-VFR TUE AFT- EVE AND AGAIN WED AFT-EVE IN
SCTD SHWR/ISO TSTM. SWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT BECOME NLY WED AS FRONT
DROPS THROUGH.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...
WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING MONDAY AS SLY
CHANNELING OCCURS. SCA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR LARGE AREAS OF MD PORTION OF BAY...WHERE CHANNELING USUALLY
OCCURS.

SCA GUSTS LIKELY CONTINUE TUESDAY BEFORE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OVER
THE AREA WEAKENING THE GRADIENT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL THURS AND FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 040129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
BERMUDA THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY IN THE AREA DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...1023MB MSLP ALONG THE NC COAST WITH A SOUTH FLOW
IMPLYING HIGHER PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST...APPROACHING BERMUDA MONDAY. A TROUGH IS OVER THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADAR MOSAIC.

MOSTLY CLEAR (JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS) TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SWLY FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH (IF ANY). MINS AROUND 50F INLAND WITH AN INVERSION
FOR RIDGES AND LOW 60S NEARSHORE/URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AND MON WL BE THE WARMEST DAY THE AREA HAS XPRNCD SINCE LAST SEPT
(SEE CLIMATE SXN BLO). HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE LM80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WANDERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF DECAYING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...SO SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE JET/SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...SO SURFACE FRONTAL AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED UNLESS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM AND FINDS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY EVENING /LOW PROBABILITY/.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHUT OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE CYCLE REPEATS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT
DROPS THROUGH.

COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA ON WED...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURS. COLD FRONT THEN LIFTS NE
AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND FRONT. UPSLOPING FACTOR FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF
THE SE COAST... AND DEPENDING ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...IT COULD BRING PRECIP
TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUN ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD THROUGH TUES AM. LIGHT SWLY FLOW TONIGHT (OR CALM)
AND SLY/SWLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PSBL BRIEF/SPOTTY SUB-VFR TUE AFT- EVE AND AGAIN WED AFT-EVE IN
SCTD SHWR/ISO TSTM. SWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT BECOME NLY WED AS FRONT
DROPS THROUGH.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...
WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INCREASING MONDAY AS SLY
CHANNELING OCCURS. SCA FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FOR LARGE AREAS OF MD PORTION OF BAY...WHERE CHANNELING USUALLY
OCCURS.

SCA GUSTS LIKELY CONTINUE TUESDAY BEFORE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OVER
THE AREA WEAKENING THE GRADIENT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL THURS AND FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 031813
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
213 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL BUILD TOWARD BERMUDA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES MOVG OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS WL ALLOW THE
WINDS...ALTHO LGT...TO SHIFT TO A SRLY DIRECTION OVRNGT...AND
BRINGING A WARMER NGT TO THE MID ATLC AS WELL. LAST NGT HIGHLAND
CNTY GOT DOWN TO 30 DEGS...WHILE DC/BALT BOTH DROPPED TO 56.
TNGT`S LOWS WL BE IN THE M40S IN THE HIGHLANDS...L60S IN THE
CITIES. MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA WL DROP TO THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AND MON WL BE THE WARMEST DAY THE AREA HAS XPRNCD SINCE LAST SEP
(SEE CLIMATE SXN BLO). HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE LM80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WANDERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF DECAYING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...SO SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE JET/SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...SO SURFACE FRONTAL AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED UNLESS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM AND FINDS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY EVENING /LOW PROBABILITY/.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHUT OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE CYCLE REPEATS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT
DROPS THROUGH.

COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA ON WED...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURS. COLD FRONT THEN LIFTS NE
AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND FRONT. UPSLOPING FACTOR FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF
THE SE COAST... AND DEPENDING ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...IT COULD BRING PRECIP
TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUN ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT AND MON. AFTN CONSIDERATION WL BE THE WINDS
AT DCA AND BWI. DCA HAS BEEN XPRNCG A SERLY BRZ UP THE
PTMC...WHILE BWI HAS A WRLY WIND. SFC OBS SHOW A BAY BRZ
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE WRN SHORE. MDLS SHOW THAT BRZ TRACKING WWD
AND CAUSING A SHIFT AT BWI ARND 21Z...BUT BWI TDWR IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH WWD PROGRESSION OF THE BRZ SO THE TAF MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED.

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NGT-TUE AM W/ AOB 10 KT. PSBL
BRIEF/SPOTTY SUB-VFR TUE AFT-EVE AND AGAIN WED AFT-EVE IN SCTD
SHWR/ISO TSTM. SWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT BECOME NLY WED AS FRONT DROPS
THROUGH.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...
WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONSITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT AND MON.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA GUSTS
MONDAY NIGHT. SCA ISSUED FOR THIS TIME. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE AREA WEAKENING THE
GRADIENT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL THURS AND FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

CLIMATE...
ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 031813
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
213 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL BUILD TOWARD BERMUDA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRES MOVG OFF THE CAROLINA CST. THIS WL ALLOW THE
WINDS...ALTHO LGT...TO SHIFT TO A SRLY DIRECTION OVRNGT...AND
BRINGING A WARMER NGT TO THE MID ATLC AS WELL. LAST NGT HIGHLAND
CNTY GOT DOWN TO 30 DEGS...WHILE DC/BALT BOTH DROPPED TO 56.
TNGT`S LOWS WL BE IN THE M40S IN THE HIGHLANDS...L60S IN THE
CITIES. MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA WL DROP TO THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...

AND MON WL BE THE WARMEST DAY THE AREA HAS XPRNCD SINCE LAST SEP
(SEE CLIMATE SXN BLO). HIGHS XPCTD TO REACH THE LM80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WANDERING
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF DECAYING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...SO SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THE JET/SHORTWAVE FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...SO SURFACE FRONTAL AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS
OF ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED UNLESS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM AND FINDS ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY EVENING /LOW PROBABILITY/.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHUT OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE CYCLE REPEATS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT
DROPS THROUGH.

COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA ON WED...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THURS. COLD FRONT THEN LIFTS NE
AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND FRONT. UPSLOPING FACTOR FROM THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT FOR
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF
THE SE COAST... AND DEPENDING ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...IT COULD BRING PRECIP
TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR SUN ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD TNGT AND MON. AFTN CONSIDERATION WL BE THE WINDS
AT DCA AND BWI. DCA HAS BEEN XPRNCG A SERLY BRZ UP THE
PTMC...WHILE BWI HAS A WRLY WIND. SFC OBS SHOW A BAY BRZ
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE WRN SHORE. MDLS SHOW THAT BRZ TRACKING WWD
AND CAUSING A SHIFT AT BWI ARND 21Z...BUT BWI TDWR IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH WWD PROGRESSION OF THE BRZ SO THE TAF MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED.

MAINLY VFR EXPECTED MON NGT-TUE AM W/ AOB 10 KT. PSBL
BRIEF/SPOTTY SUB-VFR TUE AFT-EVE AND AGAIN WED AFT-EVE IN SCTD
SHWR/ISO TSTM. SWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT BECOME NLY WED AS FRONT DROPS
THROUGH.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...
WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONSITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT AND MON.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCA GUSTS
MONDAY NIGHT. SCA ISSUED FOR THIS TIME. GUSTS COULD CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE AREA WEAKENING THE
GRADIENT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL THURS AND FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

CLIMATE...
ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031436
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1036 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL BUILD TOWARD BERMUDA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN CHILLIER CONDITIONS FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SE...EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS
TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SWT FLOW WILL USHER
IN EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LM 80S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

SW FLOW WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME LEADING TO
INCREASED INSTABILITY. FOR MONDAY...STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE
DRY DUE TO A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TERRAIN CIRCULATION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
LIFTING MECHANISM WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY
REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
ADD POPS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISMS...AND WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THEREFORE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX CONTINUING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TUES NIGHT STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. ANY PCPN INITIALLY WED MORNING CONFINED NEAR THE
MASON DIXON LINE...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN INCREASES
IN COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT MINIMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TSTMS MENTIONED ON WED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE THE WEAKER SIDE.
ELY FLOW COULD KEEP ANY THUNDER MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANY PCPN MENTION ENDS WED EVENING.

SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN AGAIN ON THURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS THE FRONT ALIGNS ALONG THE VA/MD BORDER. WITH THE REGION UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT...FEEL BEST PCPN CHC COMES FROM THE UPSLOPING FACTOR
FROM THE ELY FLOW. HAVE MENTION YET AGAIN OF THUNDER ON THURS.

RIDGE AXIS NUDGES EAST FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IN WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA BY
SAT MORNING. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PSBL DURING THIS TIME
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.

ANOTHER THING TO KEEP WATCH IS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO THE
SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. MODELS HAVE DIVERGING
SOLUTIONS ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT IF IT
PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...COULD RESULT IN PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEK AS WELL.

THE BUILDING RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF 80+ HIGHS. FOR WED AND THURS...DID KEEP THE EASTERN
AREAS A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY FLOW...BUT STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIST FOR MOST OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-SAT. PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
STRENGTHEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-THURS WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. PSBL SCA GUSTS FRI...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS UNLIKELY WITH THE HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH
TIDES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BJL/APS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031021
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
621 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BUILDING TOWARD
BERMUDA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP
MIXING LAYER ANTICIPATED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A SCT CU DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE DAYTIME HEATING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THANKS TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN CHILLIER CONDITIONS FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.
FOR MONDAY...STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY DUE TO A STRONGER
CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ADD POPS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISMS...AND WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THEREFORE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX CONTINUING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TUES NIGHT STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. ANY PCPN INITIALLY WED MORNING CONFINED NEAR THE
MASON DIXON LINE...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN INCREASES
IN COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT MINIMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TSTMS MENTIONED ON WED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE THE WEAKER SIDE.
ELY FLOW COULD KEEP ANY THUNDER MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANY PCPN MENTION ENDS WED EVENING.

SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN AGAIN ON THURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS THE FRONT ALIGNS ALONG THE VA/MD BORDER. WITH THE REGION UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT...FEEL BEST PCPN CHC COMES FROM THE UPSLOPING FACTOR
FROM THE ELY FLOW. HAVE MENTION YET AGAIN OF THUNDER ON THURS.

RIDGE AXIS NUDGES EAST FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IN WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA BY
SAT MORNING. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PSBL DURING THIS TIME
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP WATCH
ON IS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST. MODELS HAVE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...COULD RESULT IN
PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEK AS
WELL.

THE BUILDING RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF 80+ HIGHS. FOR WED AND THURS...DID KEEP THE EASTERN
AREAS A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY FLOW...BUT STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIST FOR MOST OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-SAT. PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
STRENGTHEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-THURS WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. PSBL SCA GUSTS FRI...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING HAS ENDED AT ANNAPOLIS WITH WATER LEVELS
FALLING DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL
ANOMALIES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR
THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATER
THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOICAL NORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...A LIGHT OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ANOMALIES TO DECREASE A BIT. THEREFORE...NO MINOR TIDAL IS
FLOODING. ALSO WITH THE DECREASED ANOMALIES...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS UNLIKELY WITH THE HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL





000
FXUS61 KLWX 031021
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
621 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BUILDING TOWARD
BERMUDA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP
MIXING LAYER ANTICIPATED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A SCT CU DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE DAYTIME HEATING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THANKS TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN CHILLIER CONDITIONS FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.
FOR MONDAY...STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY DUE TO A STRONGER
CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ADD POPS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISMS...AND WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THEREFORE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX CONTINUING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TUES NIGHT STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. ANY PCPN INITIALLY WED MORNING CONFINED NEAR THE
MASON DIXON LINE...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN INCREASES
IN COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT MINIMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TSTMS MENTIONED ON WED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE THE WEAKER SIDE.
ELY FLOW COULD KEEP ANY THUNDER MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANY PCPN MENTION ENDS WED EVENING.

SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN AGAIN ON THURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS THE FRONT ALIGNS ALONG THE VA/MD BORDER. WITH THE REGION UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT...FEEL BEST PCPN CHC COMES FROM THE UPSLOPING FACTOR
FROM THE ELY FLOW. HAVE MENTION YET AGAIN OF THUNDER ON THURS.

RIDGE AXIS NUDGES EAST FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IN WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA BY
SAT MORNING. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PSBL DURING THIS TIME
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP WATCH
ON IS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST. MODELS HAVE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...COULD RESULT IN
PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEK AS
WELL.

THE BUILDING RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF 80+ HIGHS. FOR WED AND THURS...DID KEEP THE EASTERN
AREAS A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY FLOW...BUT STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIST FOR MOST OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-SAT. PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
STRENGTHEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-THURS WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. PSBL SCA GUSTS FRI...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING HAS ENDED AT ANNAPOLIS WITH WATER LEVELS
FALLING DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL
ANOMALIES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR
THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATER
THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOICAL NORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...A LIGHT OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ANOMALIES TO DECREASE A BIT. THEREFORE...NO MINOR TIDAL IS
FLOODING. ALSO WITH THE DECREASED ANOMALIES...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS UNLIKELY WITH THE HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031021
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
621 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BUILDING TOWARD
BERMUDA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP
MIXING LAYER ANTICIPATED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A SCT CU DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE DAYTIME HEATING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THANKS TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN CHILLIER CONDITIONS FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.
FOR MONDAY...STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY DUE TO A STRONGER
CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ADD POPS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISMS...AND WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THEREFORE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX CONTINUING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TUES NIGHT STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. ANY PCPN INITIALLY WED MORNING CONFINED NEAR THE
MASON DIXON LINE...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN INCREASES
IN COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT MINIMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TSTMS MENTIONED ON WED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE THE WEAKER SIDE.
ELY FLOW COULD KEEP ANY THUNDER MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANY PCPN MENTION ENDS WED EVENING.

SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN AGAIN ON THURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS THE FRONT ALIGNS ALONG THE VA/MD BORDER. WITH THE REGION UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT...FEEL BEST PCPN CHC COMES FROM THE UPSLOPING FACTOR
FROM THE ELY FLOW. HAVE MENTION YET AGAIN OF THUNDER ON THURS.

RIDGE AXIS NUDGES EAST FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IN WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA BY
SAT MORNING. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PSBL DURING THIS TIME
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP WATCH
ON IS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST. MODELS HAVE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...COULD RESULT IN
PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEK AS
WELL.

THE BUILDING RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF 80+ HIGHS. FOR WED AND THURS...DID KEEP THE EASTERN
AREAS A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY FLOW...BUT STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIST FOR MOST OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-SAT. PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
STRENGTHEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-THURS WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. PSBL SCA GUSTS FRI...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING HAS ENDED AT ANNAPOLIS WITH WATER LEVELS
FALLING DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL
ANOMALIES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR
THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATER
THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOICAL NORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...A LIGHT OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ANOMALIES TO DECREASE A BIT. THEREFORE...NO MINOR TIDAL IS
FLOODING. ALSO WITH THE DECREASED ANOMALIES...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS UNLIKELY WITH THE HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 031021
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
621 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BUILDING TOWARD
BERMUDA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP
MIXING LAYER ANTICIPATED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A SCT CU DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE DAYTIME HEATING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THANKS TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN CHILLIER CONDITIONS FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.
FOR MONDAY...STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY DUE TO A STRONGER
CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ADD POPS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISMS...AND WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THEREFORE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX CONTINUING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TUES NIGHT STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. ANY PCPN INITIALLY WED MORNING CONFINED NEAR THE
MASON DIXON LINE...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN INCREASES
IN COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT MINIMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TSTMS MENTIONED ON WED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE THE WEAKER SIDE.
ELY FLOW COULD KEEP ANY THUNDER MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANY PCPN MENTION ENDS WED EVENING.

SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN AGAIN ON THURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS THE FRONT ALIGNS ALONG THE VA/MD BORDER. WITH THE REGION UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT...FEEL BEST PCPN CHC COMES FROM THE UPSLOPING FACTOR
FROM THE ELY FLOW. HAVE MENTION YET AGAIN OF THUNDER ON THURS.

RIDGE AXIS NUDGES EAST FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IN WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA BY
SAT MORNING. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PSBL DURING THIS TIME
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP WATCH
ON IS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST. MODELS HAVE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...COULD RESULT IN
PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEK AS
WELL.

THE BUILDING RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF 80+ HIGHS. FOR WED AND THURS...DID KEEP THE EASTERN
AREAS A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY FLOW...BUT STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIST FOR MOST OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-SAT. PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
STRENGTHEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-THURS WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. PSBL SCA GUSTS FRI...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING HAS ENDED AT ANNAPOLIS WITH WATER LEVELS
FALLING DUE TO THE APPROACHING LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. TIDAL
ANOMALIES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FOR
THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATER
THIS MORNING.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOICAL NORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...A LIGHT OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ANOMALIES TO DECREASE A BIT. THEREFORE...NO MINOR TIDAL IS
FLOODING. ALSO WITH THE DECREASED ANOMALIES...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS UNLIKELY WITH THE HIGHER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL





000
FXUS61 KLWX 030714
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BUILDING TOWARD
BERMUDA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP
MIXING LAYER ANTICIPATED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A SCT CU DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE DAYTIME HEATING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THANKS TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN CHILLIER CONDITIONS FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.
FOR MONDAY...STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY DUE TO A STRONGER
CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ADD POPS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISMS...AND WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THEREFORE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX CONTINUING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TUES NIGHT STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. ANY PCPN INITIALLY WED MORNING CONFINED NEAR THE
MASON DIXON LINE...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN INCREASES
IN COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT MINIMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TSTMS MENTIONED ON WED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE THE WEAKER SIDE.
ELY FLOW COULD KEEP ANY THUNDER MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANY PCPN MENTION ENDS WED EVENING.

SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN AGAIN ON THURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS THE FRONT ALIGNS ALONG THE VA/MD BORDER. WITH THE REGION UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT...FEEL BEST PCPN CHC COMES FROM THE UPSLOPING FACTOR
FROM THE ELY FLOW. HAVE MENTION YET AGAIN OF THUNDER ON THURS.

RIDGE AXIS NUDGES EAST FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IN WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA BY
SAT MORNING. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PSBL DURING THIS TIME
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP WATCH
ON IS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST. MODELS HAVE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...COULD RESULT IN
PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEK AS
WELL.

THE BUILDING RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF 80+ HIGHS. FOR WED AND THURS...DID KEEP THE EASTERN
AREAS A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY FLOW...BUT STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIST FOR MOST OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-SAT. PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
STRENGTHEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-THURS WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. PSBL SCA GUSTS FRI...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE APPROACHED 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS ARE LIGHT
SO ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ANOMALIES WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS
NEAR ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE.
HIGH TIDE AT ANNAPOLIS IS AT 5:40 AM. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BUT
THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED EARLY THIS MORNING.

A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAY CAUSE ANOMALIES TO DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING. MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THIS AFTERNOON OR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030714
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BUILDING TOWARD
BERMUDA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP
MIXING LAYER ANTICIPATED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A SCT CU DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE DAYTIME HEATING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THANKS TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN CHILLIER CONDITIONS FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.
FOR MONDAY...STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY DUE TO A STRONGER
CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ADD POPS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISMS...AND WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THEREFORE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX CONTINUING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TUES NIGHT STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. ANY PCPN INITIALLY WED MORNING CONFINED NEAR THE
MASON DIXON LINE...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN INCREASES
IN COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT MINIMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TSTMS MENTIONED ON WED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE THE WEAKER SIDE.
ELY FLOW COULD KEEP ANY THUNDER MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANY PCPN MENTION ENDS WED EVENING.

SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN AGAIN ON THURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS THE FRONT ALIGNS ALONG THE VA/MD BORDER. WITH THE REGION UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT...FEEL BEST PCPN CHC COMES FROM THE UPSLOPING FACTOR
FROM THE ELY FLOW. HAVE MENTION YET AGAIN OF THUNDER ON THURS.

RIDGE AXIS NUDGES EAST FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IN WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA BY
SAT MORNING. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PSBL DURING THIS TIME
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP WATCH
ON IS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST. MODELS HAVE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...COULD RESULT IN
PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEK AS
WELL.

THE BUILDING RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF 80+ HIGHS. FOR WED AND THURS...DID KEEP THE EASTERN
AREAS A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY FLOW...BUT STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIST FOR MOST OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-SAT. PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
STRENGTHEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-THURS WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. PSBL SCA GUSTS FRI...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE APPROACHED 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS ARE LIGHT
SO ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ANOMALIES WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS
NEAR ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE.
HIGH TIDE AT ANNAPOLIS IS AT 5:40 AM. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BUT
THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED EARLY THIS MORNING.

A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAY CAUSE ANOMALIES TO DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING. MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THIS AFTERNOON OR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL





000
FXUS61 KLWX 030714
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH TODAY BEFORE BUILDING TOWARD
BERMUDA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARM CONDITIONS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE DUE TO THE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP
MIXING LAYER ANTICIPATED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. A SCT CU DECK WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON DUE DAYTIME HEATING...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THANKS TO A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TONIGHT. MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY RESULT IN CHILLIER CONDITIONS FOR SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TOWARD BERMUDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.
FOR MONDAY...STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE DRY DUE TO A STRONGER
CAPPING INVERSION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION WOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIFTING MECHANISM WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKELY REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ADD POPS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT DEEPER DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. TERRAIN
CIRCULATION AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ACT AS THE PRIMARY LIFTING
MECHANISMS...AND WITH A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THEREFORE...MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE MAY
BE A COUPLE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX CONTINUING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH TUES NIGHT STALLING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC. ANY PCPN INITIALLY WED MORNING CONFINED NEAR THE
MASON DIXON LINE...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PCPN INCREASES
IN COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WILL KEEP THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT MINIMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TSTMS MENTIONED ON WED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE THE WEAKER SIDE.
ELY FLOW COULD KEEP ANY THUNDER MORE CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ANY PCPN MENTION ENDS WED EVENING.

SLIGHT CHC FOR PCPN AGAIN ON THURS...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AS THE FRONT ALIGNS ALONG THE VA/MD BORDER. WITH THE REGION UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT...FEEL BEST PCPN CHC COMES FROM THE UPSLOPING FACTOR
FROM THE ELY FLOW. HAVE MENTION YET AGAIN OF THUNDER ON THURS.

RIDGE AXIS NUDGES EAST FRIDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
FOR THE SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA IN WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT SOMETIME FRIDAY...CLEARING THE AREA BY
SAT MORNING. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PSBL DURING THIS TIME
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. ANOTHER THING TO KEEP WATCH
ON IS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US
COAST. MODELS HAVE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IF IT PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH...COULD RESULT IN
PCPN TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEK AS
WELL.

THE BUILDING RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING WELL ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY AREAS HAVING
MULTIPLE DAYS OF 80+ HIGHS. FOR WED AND THURS...DID KEEP THE EASTERN
AREAS A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR ELY FLOW...BUT STILL
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERIST FOR MOST OF THE TIME MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AT THIS
TIME.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-SAT. PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY
STRENGTHEN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-THURS WITH PERSISTENT ELY FLOW
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. PSBL SCA GUSTS FRI...DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE APPROACHED 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS ARE LIGHT
SO ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ANOMALIES WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS
NEAR ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE.
HIGH TIDE AT ANNAPOLIS IS AT 5:40 AM. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BUT
THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED EARLY THIS MORNING.

A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW MAY CAUSE ANOMALIES TO DECREASE LATER THIS
MORNING. MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
THIS AFTERNOON OR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030513
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
113 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BERMUDA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AS OF 00Z...1019MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN WV WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON
STRATOCU ARE CLEARING OUT...CRYSTAL CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MERELY DRIFT TO CNTRL NC THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MID TO UPR 40S INLAND LOWER ELEVATIONS...INVERSION FOR
RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR URBAN/NEARSHORE LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS. JUST AFTERNOON FAIR CU
AND A LIGHT WLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TUE. LIGHT WLY FLOW CALMS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NWLY FLOW BECOMING SWLY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BAY BREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW TO 10 KT UP THE BAY FROM A BAY BREEZE WEAKENS TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WLY FLOW SUNDAY BECOMES
SWLY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE APPROACHED 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS ARE LIGHT
SO ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ANOMALIES WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS
NEAR ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE.
HIGH TIDE AT ANNAPOLIS IS AT 5:40 AM. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BUT
THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/BAJ/WOODY!/DFH/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030513
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
113 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BERMUDA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AS OF 00Z...1019MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN WV WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON
STRATOCU ARE CLEARING OUT...CRYSTAL CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MERELY DRIFT TO CNTRL NC THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MID TO UPR 40S INLAND LOWER ELEVATIONS...INVERSION FOR
RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR URBAN/NEARSHORE LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS. JUST AFTERNOON FAIR CU
AND A LIGHT WLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TUE. LIGHT WLY FLOW CALMS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NWLY FLOW BECOMING SWLY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BAY BREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW TO 10 KT UP THE BAY FROM A BAY BREEZE WEAKENS TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WLY FLOW SUNDAY BECOMES
SWLY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE APPROACHED 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS ARE LIGHT
SO ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE ANOMALIES WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS
NEAR ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS NEAR HIGH TIDE.
HIGH TIDE AT ANNAPOLIS IS AT 5:40 AM. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS BUT
THEY WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BJL/BAJ/WOODY!/DFH/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 030101
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
901 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BERMUDA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ONLY HAZARDOUS WX CONCERN IS ELEVATED WATER...SEE COASTAL FLOOD
SECTION BELOW.

AS OF 00Z...1019MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN WV WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON
STRATOCU ARE CLEARING OUT...CRYSTAL CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MERELY DRIFT TO CNTRL NC THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MID TO UPR 40S INLAND LOWER ELEVATIONS...INVERSION FOR
RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR URBAN/NEARSHORE LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS. JUST AFTERNOON FAIR CU
AND A LIGHT WLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TUE. LIGHT WLY FLOW CALMS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NWLY FLOW BECOMING SWLY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BAY BREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW TO 10 KT UP THE BAY FROM A BAY BREEZE WEAKENS TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WLY FLOW SUNDAY BECOMES
SWLY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS 0.8 OR 0.9 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION WITH FULL
MOON MONDAY. NO COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LESSER HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT WILL APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT THE SENSITIVE SITES. FOR INSTANCE...ANNAPOLIS WOULD
NEED A DEPARTURE OF 0.85 TO HIT THEIR MINOR CRITERIA OF 2.4 FT. AT
HIGH TIDE AROUND 5:30AM. HOWEVER...THE DEPARTURE NEAR 9PM IS 0.83
AND DROPPING. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT NO
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030101
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
901 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BERMUDA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ONLY HAZARDOUS WX CONCERN IS ELEVATED WATER...SEE COASTAL FLOOD
SECTION BELOW.

AS OF 00Z...1019MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN WV WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON
STRATOCU ARE CLEARING OUT...CRYSTAL CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MERELY DRIFT TO CNTRL NC THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MID TO UPR 40S INLAND LOWER ELEVATIONS...INVERSION FOR
RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR URBAN/NEARSHORE LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS. JUST AFTERNOON FAIR CU
AND A LIGHT WLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TUE. LIGHT WLY FLOW CALMS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NWLY FLOW BECOMING SWLY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BAY BREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW TO 10 KT UP THE BAY FROM A BAY BREEZE WEAKENS TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WLY FLOW SUNDAY BECOMES
SWLY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS 0.8 OR 0.9 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION WITH FULL
MOON MONDAY. NO COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LESSER HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT WILL APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT THE SENSITIVE SITES. FOR INSTANCE...ANNAPOLIS WOULD
NEED A DEPARTURE OF 0.85 TO HIT THEIR MINOR CRITERIA OF 2.4 FT. AT
HIGH TIDE AROUND 5:30AM. HOWEVER...THE DEPARTURE NEAR 9PM IS 0.83
AND DROPPING. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT NO
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KLWX 030101
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
901 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BERMUDA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ONLY HAZARDOUS WX CONCERN IS ELEVATED WATER...SEE COASTAL FLOOD
SECTION BELOW.

AS OF 00Z...1019MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN WV WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON
STRATOCU ARE CLEARING OUT...CRYSTAL CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MERELY DRIFT TO CNTRL NC THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MID TO UPR 40S INLAND LOWER ELEVATIONS...INVERSION FOR
RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR URBAN/NEARSHORE LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS. JUST AFTERNOON FAIR CU
AND A LIGHT WLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TUE. LIGHT WLY FLOW CALMS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NWLY FLOW BECOMING SWLY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BAY BREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW TO 10 KT UP THE BAY FROM A BAY BREEZE WEAKENS TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WLY FLOW SUNDAY BECOMES
SWLY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS 0.8 OR 0.9 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION WITH FULL
MOON MONDAY. NO COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LESSER HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT WILL APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT THE SENSITIVE SITES. FOR INSTANCE...ANNAPOLIS WOULD
NEED A DEPARTURE OF 0.85 TO HIT THEIR MINOR CRITERIA OF 2.4 FT. AT
HIGH TIDE AROUND 5:30AM. HOWEVER...THE DEPARTURE NEAR 9PM IS 0.83
AND DROPPING. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT NO
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KLWX 030101
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
901 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BERMUDA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ONLY HAZARDOUS WX CONCERN IS ELEVATED WATER...SEE COASTAL FLOOD
SECTION BELOW.

AS OF 00Z...1019MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN WV WITH LOW
PRESSURE NOW WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON
STRATOCU ARE CLEARING OUT...CRYSTAL CLEAR OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MERELY DRIFT TO CNTRL NC THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. MID TO UPR 40S INLAND LOWER ELEVATIONS...INVERSION FOR
RIDGES AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR URBAN/NEARSHORE LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS. JUST AFTERNOON FAIR CU
AND A LIGHT WLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TUE. LIGHT WLY FLOW CALMS LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NWLY FLOW BECOMING SWLY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER BAY BREEZE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW TO 10 KT UP THE BAY FROM A BAY BREEZE WEAKENS TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WLY FLOW SUNDAY BECOMES
SWLY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS 0.8 OR 0.9 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION WITH FULL
MOON MONDAY. NO COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE LESSER HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT WILL APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AT THE SENSITIVE SITES. FOR INSTANCE...ANNAPOLIS WOULD
NEED A DEPARTURE OF 0.85 TO HIT THEIR MINOR CRITERIA OF 2.4 FT. AT
HIGH TIDE AROUND 5:30AM. HOWEVER...THE DEPARTURE NEAR 9PM IS 0.83
AND DROPPING. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT NO
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KLWX 021831
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
231 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AFTN CU...HIGHS IN THE LM70S...LGT WINDS...A VERY PLSNT WAY TO
BEGIN MAY. THE CU SHOULD CLR OUT ARND SUNSET W/ THE HIGH MOVG OVR
THE RGN. W/ THE XCPTN OF THE CITIES AM GOING ON THE LOW END OF
TEMPS OVRNGT - MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS...MU40S MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...LM50S IN THE CITIES. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN THE SHEN VLLY/I-81.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT-TUE. SWLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUE TNGT AND SUNDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

CLIMATE...

ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021831
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
231 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AFTN CU...HIGHS IN THE LM70S...LGT WINDS...A VERY PLSNT WAY TO
BEGIN MAY. THE CU SHOULD CLR OUT ARND SUNSET W/ THE HIGH MOVG OVR
THE RGN. W/ THE XCPTN OF THE CITIES AM GOING ON THE LOW END OF
TEMPS OVRNGT - MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS...MU40S MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...LM50S IN THE CITIES. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN THE SHEN VLLY/I-81.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT-TUE. SWLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUE TNGT AND SUNDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

CLIMATE...

ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 021831
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
231 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AFTN CU...HIGHS IN THE LM70S...LGT WINDS...A VERY PLSNT WAY TO
BEGIN MAY. THE CU SHOULD CLR OUT ARND SUNSET W/ THE HIGH MOVG OVR
THE RGN. W/ THE XCPTN OF THE CITIES AM GOING ON THE LOW END OF
TEMPS OVRNGT - MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS...MU40S MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...LM50S IN THE CITIES. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN THE SHEN VLLY/I-81.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT-TUE. SWLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUE TNGT AND SUNDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

CLIMATE...

ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021831
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
231 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AFTN CU...HIGHS IN THE LM70S...LGT WINDS...A VERY PLSNT WAY TO
BEGIN MAY. THE CU SHOULD CLR OUT ARND SUNSET W/ THE HIGH MOVG OVR
THE RGN. W/ THE XCPTN OF THE CITIES AM GOING ON THE LOW END OF
TEMPS OVRNGT - MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS...MU40S MAJORITY OF THE
CWA...LM50S IN THE CITIES. PATCHY FOG PSBL IN THE SHEN VLLY/I-81.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

AND A PLSNT SUNDAY IS ON THE WAY AS WELL W/ HIGH PRES OVRHD. HIGHS
IN THE U70S/L80S OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THE WARMEST FEW DAYS WE HAVE HAD SO FAR THIS YEAR. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN
FORCING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING IT.

COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE MASON/DIXON LINE TUES
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS CLOSE TO OUR CWA THROUGH
SAT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OFF THE SE COAST AND LIMITS IT FROM
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
SAT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY.

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WED THROUGH FRI WITH MAX TEMPS APPROX
10 TO 15 DEG ABOVE AVERAGE...REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT-TUE. SWLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS
NIGHT...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS BLO SCA VALUE TNGT AND SUNDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WED AND THURS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING
TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WATER LEVELS
SHOULD BE BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.

&&

CLIMATE...

ONE OF THE WARMEST AIRMASSES SO FAR THIS YEAR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE LAST TIME A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 DEGREES OR
HIGHER WAS OBSERVED.

SITE..LAST 85+ DEGREE DAY...
DCA...SEPTEMBER 27TH 2014...
BWI...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
IAD...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
CHO...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...
DMH...SEPTEMBER 11TH 2014...
HGR...SEPTEMBER 6TH 2014....
MRB...SEPTEMBER 21ST 2014...

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/DFH/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 021302
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SETTLING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND IT WILL
STALL OUT OVERHEAD DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INCREASED SUNSHINE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS FROM RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
GUIDANCE DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER EXPECTED.

THE SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SCT TO BKN CU DECK TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE A TAD HIGHER DUE TO
COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE IS
NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY
AND ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE IN
RURAL AREAS AND VALLEYS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL USHER IN
NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...MORE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED AND SUBSIDENCE
FROM THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN EVEN
WARMER CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH SETTLES OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BCMG STATIONARY AS IT REACHES THE
MASON DIXON LINE BY WED MORNING WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP
ALOFT. INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS TUES MORNING...WITH INCRSG CHC OF
PCPN AS THE FRONT NEARS THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT FOR TUES AFTN/OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD
VERY WELL END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

CHC FOR PCPN CONTINUES THRU WED NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LVL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO SINK TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH STILL REMAINING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE CWA WITH AN OFFSHORE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NUDGING TO THE NORTH
LIMITING ANY FURTHER SOUTHERN MOVEMENT. THIS LOW WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR PCPN CHCS THEN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR TIMING OF PCPN AS THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS
TRACK AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY.

850MB TEMPS REMAIN ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS THRU
THE EXTENDED...KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK NEAR 5KFT
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BKN CU DECK
WILL ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS...FROM KIAD EASTWARD. NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...PATCHY BR
MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-FRI...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS TUES-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATER TDA-MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME. .
WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS. PSBL SCA GUSTS THURS-FRI...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
 WATER LEVELS TO COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR ANNAPOLIS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING. DID NOT
ISSUE AND ADVISORY SINCE CURRENT ANOMALIES SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
FALL JUST SHORT...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTAIN ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH
TODAY...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BJL/APS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021302
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SETTLING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND IT WILL
STALL OUT OVERHEAD DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INCREASED SUNSHINE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS FROM RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
GUIDANCE DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER EXPECTED.

THE SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SCT TO BKN CU DECK TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE A TAD HIGHER DUE TO
COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE IS
NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY
AND ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE IN
RURAL AREAS AND VALLEYS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL USHER IN
NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...MORE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED AND SUBSIDENCE
FROM THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN EVEN
WARMER CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH SETTLES OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BCMG STATIONARY AS IT REACHES THE
MASON DIXON LINE BY WED MORNING WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP
ALOFT. INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS TUES MORNING...WITH INCRSG CHC OF
PCPN AS THE FRONT NEARS THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT FOR TUES AFTN/OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD
VERY WELL END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

CHC FOR PCPN CONTINUES THRU WED NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LVL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO SINK TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH STILL REMAINING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE CWA WITH AN OFFSHORE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NUDGING TO THE NORTH
LIMITING ANY FURTHER SOUTHERN MOVEMENT. THIS LOW WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR PCPN CHCS THEN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR TIMING OF PCPN AS THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS
TRACK AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY.

850MB TEMPS REMAIN ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS THRU
THE EXTENDED...KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK NEAR 5KFT
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BKN CU DECK
WILL ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS...FROM KIAD EASTWARD. NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...PATCHY BR
MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-FRI...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS TUES-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATER TDA-MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME. .
WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS. PSBL SCA GUSTS THURS-FRI...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
 WATER LEVELS TO COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR ANNAPOLIS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING. DID NOT
ISSUE AND ADVISORY SINCE CURRENT ANOMALIES SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
FALL JUST SHORT...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTAIN ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH
TODAY...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BJL/APS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 021302
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SETTLING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND IT WILL
STALL OUT OVERHEAD DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INCREASED SUNSHINE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS FROM RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
GUIDANCE DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER EXPECTED.

THE SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SCT TO BKN CU DECK TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE A TAD HIGHER DUE TO
COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE IS
NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY
AND ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE IN
RURAL AREAS AND VALLEYS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL USHER IN
NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...MORE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED AND SUBSIDENCE
FROM THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN EVEN
WARMER CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH SETTLES OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BCMG STATIONARY AS IT REACHES THE
MASON DIXON LINE BY WED MORNING WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP
ALOFT. INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS TUES MORNING...WITH INCRSG CHC OF
PCPN AS THE FRONT NEARS THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT FOR TUES AFTN/OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD
VERY WELL END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

CHC FOR PCPN CONTINUES THRU WED NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LVL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO SINK TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH STILL REMAINING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE CWA WITH AN OFFSHORE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NUDGING TO THE NORTH
LIMITING ANY FURTHER SOUTHERN MOVEMENT. THIS LOW WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR PCPN CHCS THEN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR TIMING OF PCPN AS THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS
TRACK AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY.

850MB TEMPS REMAIN ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS THRU
THE EXTENDED...KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK NEAR 5KFT
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BKN CU DECK
WILL ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS...FROM KIAD EASTWARD. NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...PATCHY BR
MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-FRI...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS TUES-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATER TDA-MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME. .
WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS. PSBL SCA GUSTS THURS-FRI...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
 WATER LEVELS TO COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR ANNAPOLIS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING. DID NOT
ISSUE AND ADVISORY SINCE CURRENT ANOMALIES SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
FALL JUST SHORT...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTAIN ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH
TODAY...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BJL/APS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 021302
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SETTLING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY AND IT WILL
STALL OUT OVERHEAD DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INCREASED SUNSHINE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS FROM RIDGING ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER
GUIDANCE DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND A DEEP MIXING LAYER EXPECTED.

THE SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SCT TO BKN CU DECK TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY NEAR AND EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE A TAD HIGHER DUE TO
COLDER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THERE IS
NO NOTICEABLE LIFTING MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY
AND ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. DID LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER GUIDANCE IN
RURAL AREAS AND VALLEYS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL USHER IN
NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 IN THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE
METROPOLITAN AREAS. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL KEEP MILD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...MORE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED AND SUBSIDENCE
FROM THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN EVEN
WARMER CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 80S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH SETTLES OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH
THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BCMG STATIONARY AS IT REACHES THE
MASON DIXON LINE BY WED MORNING WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP
ALOFT. INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS TUES MORNING...WITH INCRSG CHC OF
PCPN AS THE FRONT NEARS THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA. HAVE KEPT
HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE
FRONT FOR TUES AFTN/OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD
VERY WELL END UP DRY DURING THIS TIME.

CHC FOR PCPN CONTINUES THRU WED NIGHT WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LVL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO SINK TO THE SOUTH...THOUGH STILL REMAINING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE CWA WITH AN OFFSHORE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NUDGING TO THE NORTH
LIMITING ANY FURTHER SOUTHERN MOVEMENT. THIS LOW WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR PCPN CHCS THEN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR TIMING OF PCPN AS THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOWS
TRACK AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE UNCERTAINTY.

850MB TEMPS REMAIN ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS THRU
THE EXTENDED...KEEPING TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SCT TO BKN CU DECK NEAR 5KFT
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BKN CU DECK
WILL ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS...FROM KIAD EASTWARD. NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...PATCHY BR
MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUES-FRI...WITH PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS TUES-WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATER TDA-MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME. .
WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUES-WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WATERS. PSBL SCA GUSTS THURS-FRI...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
 WATER LEVELS TO COME CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR ANNAPOLIS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING. DID NOT
ISSUE AND ADVISORY SINCE CURRENT ANOMALIES SUGGEST THAT IT WILL
FALL JUST SHORT...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTAIN ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS. HOWEVER...WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH
TODAY...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE BELOW MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...BJL/APS





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