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000
FXUS61 KLWX 301145
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
645 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11Z...COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...JUST EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH/EAST...WHILE THE NW FLOW
IN THE WAKE IS RESULTING IN UPSLOPING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE
UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
REGION POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LVL TROUGH...BUT EXPECTING TOTALS
TO BE LIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS A VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WORKING WITH MOISTURE BEING STREAMED IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW COULD GENERATE ISO-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY THRU MID AFTN. OVER CENTRAL VA AND TO THE
SOUTH...HAVE INCLUDED FLURRIES WITH LESS FORCING EXPECTED AND WITH
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS OUTSIDE THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE PCPN...INCREASING NW FLOW WITH STRONG
CAA...DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEND TO POSSIBLE GUSTS ABV 40 KTS. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS THE
STRONGER SOLUTION WITH WINDS ALOFT...PLACING A LLJ 50-60 KTS BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OF
GUSTS INTO THE 40S. TIMING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS
BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING EAST DURING
THE DAY...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS HAVING THE BETTER CHC OF REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE AFTN/THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THRU SAT NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT UPSLOPING
SNOW SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SAT.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BEING USHERED IN AS 850MB TEMPS DIP BELOW -10 DEGREES
CELSIUS. USING A BLEND OF ADJMET/MOSGUIDE...TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH
SHOULD SEE LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
THE ON GOING NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12 DEGREES. HOWEVER...HAVE HELD OFF FOR ANY
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME WITH THE VALUES BEING BORDERLINE WITH THE
CRITERIA AND IT BEING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH
IT WILL BE VERY COLD...WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV
CRITERIA LVLS.

BY SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING AS THE HIGH NUDGES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND INJECTING IN WARMER AIR.
DESPITE THE WARMING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HOLDING OFF TILL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AND HAVE THUS A DRY FORECAST THRU
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHAT WAS ONCE LOOKING LIKE A POTL SNOWSTORM SUN-MON ISNT QUITE SO
CLEAR ANYMORE...AS 00Z GDNC--INCL THE ECMWF--HAS TRENDED WARMER.
LOPRES PROGGED TO CROSS THE MS RIVER MIDDAY SUN /ALREADY CONTAINING
GREATER THAN DESIRED PLACEMENT SPREAD/ AND ARRIVES IN CWFA SUN NGT.
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW LOOKING TO BE SOMEWHERE N OF THE VA/NC BRDR
BUT S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THAT IN TURN BUMPS THE TRACK OF THE
H8 LOW ACRS PA...PERMITTING WARM AIR TO PENETRATE REGION ALOFT.
THEREFORE...ALL SORTS OF PTYPE ISSUES EMERGE.

GFS BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WL START AS SNW SUNDAY BUT CHG TO
JUST RA SUN EVE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE VA SHEN VLY...ALL OF
METRO DC...AND EVEN PART OF METRO BALT. AM NOT READY TO GO THAT WARM
JUST YET...BUT NEED TO ENTERTAIN PSBLTYS OF PARTIAL MELTING OR EVEN
COMPLETE MELTING AND REFREEZING SINCE WET BULBS LKLY WL BE BELOW
32F. DO BELIEVE THAT SUNDAYS PCPN SHUD BE MAINLY SNOW WHERE IT ISNT
TOO WARM. GRIDS EMPHASIZING AFTN...AS THE MRNG HRS SHUD BE DEDICATED
TO SATURATION. WL HV A MIXED BAG FOR SUN NGT. MADE THE OVNGT HRS
MESSIER..THINKING THAT SFC COLD AIR CUD SEEP SWD ON BACK SIDE OF
LOW. BY 12Z MON...LOPRES WL BE OFFSHORE. AT THAT POINT...PTYPE
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN AGAIN AS ENUF COLD AIR SHUD DRAIN DOWN THRUT
THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT PCPN CHGG BACK TO SNW BEFORE ENDING.

GIVEN LTST TRENDS THERES TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTCOME TO
SUPPORT WATCHES. IN FACT WL BE ADJUSTING HWO FM ACCUM SNW TO A MORE
GENERIC WINTER WX. OVERALL...HV LWR THAN TYPICAL FCST CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK WL START COLD AS THE CSTL LOW STRENGTHENS...DRAGGING DOWN
COLD AIR. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE DROPPING TO -10 TO -14C. AT THAT RATE
MON-TUE MAXT WL HV TROUBLE RISING ABV FRZG...AND MIN-T MAY DIP BELOW
0 DEGF ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS.

GFS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SRN STREAM LOW WL FLLW MIDWEEK HIPRES
FOR A POTL STORMY THU. ITS STILL TBD IF WE WL RECEIVE THE LOW OR IT
WL PASS S OF CWFA. WL BE KEEPING POPS LOW AS THERES A LOT OF WX TO
GET THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY STRONG NW FLOW. GUSTS START TIME +/- 1-2
HRS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING 30-40
KTS THIS AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS PSBL THOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. KCHO COULD SEE
GUSTS ENDING AS EARLY AS 06Z. ISO SNOW SHOWER PSBL KMRB BUT TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE...ESP WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO CONDITIONS.

DECREASING WNW FLOW SAT WITH WINDS BCMG W SAT NIGHT. PSBL LOWERING
CIGS LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS APLENTY SUN AS LOPRES CROSSES TERMINALS. THE
AFTN-NIGHT TIME HRS SHUD BE MOST AFFECTED. PTYPE ISSUES EXIST. ITS
NO LONGER A CLEAR-CUT SNOW EVENT. THE LOW WL BE PULLING OFFSHORE
MON. CONDS WL IMPRV THRU THE DAY...BUT SHUD HV SOME STRONG NW WIND
GUSTS.

VFR TUE UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THRU TONIGHT. GALES MAY START AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING...BUT BETTER CHC THIS AFTN/EVENING TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE LINGERING GALES PAST DAYBREAK SAT MORNING...BUT
HAVE HELD AT 09Z FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER.
HIGH CONFIDENCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL SET IN SAT MORNING FOR
CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND PSBL OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE FOR SAT NIGHT.

LOPRES APPRCHS WATERS SUN DAY AND CROSSES SUN NGT. TRACK OF LOW WL
PERMIT A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES AT NIGHT BEFORE CHGG BACK TO SNOW UPON
EXIT MON. ALSO ON MON SHUD BE STIFF NW WINDS AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS AS IT PULLS AWAY. AT LEAST SCA PSBL. WUDNT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT GLW...CONTINGENT UPON DETAILS THAT ARE STILL A LTL MURKY.
HIPRES WL RETURN BY TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS RUNNING A FOOT AND A HALF ABV ASTRO NORMS WITH THE
OVNGT TIDE CYCLE. THX TO A QUARTER MOON...TIDES ARE AT THEIR LOW
POINT ASTRONOMICALLY...AND WE/RE ABLE TO ABSORB THE EXCESS WITHOUT
ISSUE. SITES IN THE NRN CHSPK BAY AREA REACHING CAUTIONS STAGES
THOUGH.

WINDS WL BE TURNING NW BHD A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIHGT HRS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT BLOW OUT TIDES. THEREFORE...WATER LEVELS WL
RETURN TO NORMAL EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 301145
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
645 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 11Z...COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...JUST EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH/EAST...WHILE THE NW FLOW
IN THE WAKE IS RESULTING IN UPSLOPING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE
UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
REGION POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LVL TROUGH...BUT EXPECTING TOTALS
TO BE LIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS A VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WORKING WITH MOISTURE BEING STREAMED IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW COULD GENERATE ISO-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY THRU MID AFTN. OVER CENTRAL VA AND TO THE
SOUTH...HAVE INCLUDED FLURRIES WITH LESS FORCING EXPECTED AND WITH
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS OUTSIDE THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE PCPN...INCREASING NW FLOW WITH STRONG
CAA...DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEND TO POSSIBLE GUSTS ABV 40 KTS. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS THE
STRONGER SOLUTION WITH WINDS ALOFT...PLACING A LLJ 50-60 KTS BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OF
GUSTS INTO THE 40S. TIMING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS
BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING EAST DURING
THE DAY...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS HAVING THE BETTER CHC OF REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE AFTN/THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THRU SAT NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT UPSLOPING
SNOW SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SAT.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BEING USHERED IN AS 850MB TEMPS DIP BELOW -10 DEGREES
CELSIUS. USING A BLEND OF ADJMET/MOSGUIDE...TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH
SHOULD SEE LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
THE ON GOING NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12 DEGREES. HOWEVER...HAVE HELD OFF FOR ANY
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME WITH THE VALUES BEING BORDERLINE WITH THE
CRITERIA AND IT BEING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH
IT WILL BE VERY COLD...WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV
CRITERIA LVLS.

BY SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING AS THE HIGH NUDGES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND INJECTING IN WARMER AIR.
DESPITE THE WARMING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HOLDING OFF TILL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AND HAVE THUS A DRY FORECAST THRU
THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHAT WAS ONCE LOOKING LIKE A POTL SNOWSTORM SUN-MON ISNT QUITE SO
CLEAR ANYMORE...AS 00Z GDNC--INCL THE ECMWF--HAS TRENDED WARMER.
LOPRES PROGGED TO CROSS THE MS RIVER MIDDAY SUN /ALREADY CONTAINING
GREATER THAN DESIRED PLACEMENT SPREAD/ AND ARRIVES IN CWFA SUN NGT.
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW LOOKING TO BE SOMEWHERE N OF THE VA/NC BRDR
BUT S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THAT IN TURN BUMPS THE TRACK OF THE
H8 LOW ACRS PA...PERMITTING WARM AIR TO PENETRATE REGION ALOFT.
THEREFORE...ALL SORTS OF PTYPE ISSUES EMERGE.

GFS BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WL START AS SNW SUNDAY BUT CHG TO
JUST RA SUN EVE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE VA SHEN VLY...ALL OF
METRO DC...AND EVEN PART OF METRO BALT. AM NOT READY TO GO THAT WARM
JUST YET...BUT NEED TO ENTERTAIN PSBLTYS OF PARTIAL MELTING OR EVEN
COMPLETE MELTING AND REFREEZING SINCE WET BULBS LKLY WL BE BELOW
32F. DO BELIEVE THAT SUNDAYS PCPN SHUD BE MAINLY SNOW WHERE IT ISNT
TOO WARM. GRIDS EMPHASIZING AFTN...AS THE MRNG HRS SHUD BE DEDICATED
TO SATURATION. WL HV A MIXED BAG FOR SUN NGT. MADE THE OVNGT HRS
MESSIER..THINKING THAT SFC COLD AIR CUD SEEP SWD ON BACK SIDE OF
LOW. BY 12Z MON...LOPRES WL BE OFFSHORE. AT THAT POINT...PTYPE
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN AGAIN AS ENUF COLD AIR SHUD DRAIN DOWN THRUT
THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT PCPN CHGG BACK TO SNW BEFORE ENDING.

GIVEN LTST TRENDS THERES TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTCOME TO
SUPPORT WATCHES. IN FACT WL BE ADJUSTING HWO FM ACCUM SNW TO A MORE
GENERIC WINTER WX. OVERALL...HV LWR THAN TYPICAL FCST CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK WL START COLD AS THE CSTL LOW STRENGTHENS...DRAGGING DOWN
COLD AIR. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE DROPPING TO -10 TO -14C. AT THAT RATE
MON-TUE MAXT WL HV TROUBLE RISING ABV FRZG...AND MIN-T MAY DIP BELOW
0 DEGF ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS.

GFS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SRN STREAM LOW WL FLLW MIDWEEK HIPRES
FOR A POTL STORMY THU. ITS STILL TBD IF WE WL RECEIVE THE LOW OR IT
WL PASS S OF CWFA. WL BE KEEPING POPS LOW AS THERES A LOT OF WX TO
GET THROUGH FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY STRONG NW FLOW. GUSTS START TIME +/- 1-2
HRS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING 30-40
KTS THIS AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS PSBL THOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. KCHO COULD SEE
GUSTS ENDING AS EARLY AS 06Z. ISO SNOW SHOWER PSBL KMRB BUT TOO
LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE...ESP WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO CONDITIONS.

DECREASING WNW FLOW SAT WITH WINDS BCMG W SAT NIGHT. PSBL LOWERING
CIGS LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS APLENTY SUN AS LOPRES CROSSES TERMINALS. THE
AFTN-NIGHT TIME HRS SHUD BE MOST AFFECTED. PTYPE ISSUES EXIST. ITS
NO LONGER A CLEAR-CUT SNOW EVENT. THE LOW WL BE PULLING OFFSHORE
MON. CONDS WL IMPRV THRU THE DAY...BUT SHUD HV SOME STRONG NW WIND
GUSTS.

VFR TUE UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THRU TONIGHT. GALES MAY START AS
EARLY AS MID MORNING...BUT BETTER CHC THIS AFTN/EVENING TIME
PERIOD. COULD SEE LINGERING GALES PAST DAYBREAK SAT MORNING...BUT
HAVE HELD AT 09Z FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER.
HIGH CONFIDENCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL SET IN SAT MORNING FOR
CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND PSBL OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE FOR SAT NIGHT.

LOPRES APPRCHS WATERS SUN DAY AND CROSSES SUN NGT. TRACK OF LOW WL
PERMIT A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES AT NIGHT BEFORE CHGG BACK TO SNOW UPON
EXIT MON. ALSO ON MON SHUD BE STIFF NW WINDS AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS AS IT PULLS AWAY. AT LEAST SCA PSBL. WUDNT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT GLW...CONTINGENT UPON DETAILS THAT ARE STILL A LTL MURKY.
HIPRES WL RETURN BY TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS RUNNING A FOOT AND A HALF ABV ASTRO NORMS WITH THE
OVNGT TIDE CYCLE. THX TO A QUARTER MOON...TIDES ARE AT THEIR LOW
POINT ASTRONOMICALLY...AND WE/RE ABLE TO ABSORB THE EXCESS WITHOUT
ISSUE. SITES IN THE NRN CHSPK BAY AREA REACHING CAUTIONS STAGES
THOUGH.

WINDS WL BE TURNING NW BHD A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIHGT HRS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT BLOW OUT TIDES. THEREFORE...WATER LEVELS WL
RETURN TO NORMAL EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300851
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
351 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH 08Z OBS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING IT ACROSS CENTRAL MD AND VA. ON
GOING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH INCREASING NW FLOW
RESULTING IN UPSLOPING PRECIP. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
REGION POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LVL TROUGH...BUT EXPECTING TOTALS
TO BE LIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS A VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WORKING WITH MOISTURE BEING STREAMED IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW COULD GENERATE ISO-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY THRU MID AFTN. OVER CENTRAL VA AND TO THE
SOUTH...HAVE INCLUDED FLURRIES WITH LESS FORCING EXPECTED AND WITH
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS OUTSIDE THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE PCPN...INCREASING NW FLOW WITH STRONG
CAA...DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEND TO POSSIBLE GUSTS ABV 40 KTS. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS THE
STRONGER SOLUTION WITH WINDS ALOFT...PLACING A LLJ 50-60 KTS BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OF
GUSTS INTO THE 40S. TIMING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS
BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING EAST DURING
THE DAY...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS HAVING THE BETTER CHC OF REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE AFTN/THIS EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THRU SAT NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT UPSLOPING
SNOW SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SAT.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BEING USHERED IN AS 850MB TEMPS DIP BELOW -10 DEGREES
CELSIUS. USING A BLEND OF ADJMET/MOSGUIDE...TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH
SHOULD SEE LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
THE ON GOING NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12 DEGREES. HOWEVER...HAVE HELD OFF FOR ANY
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME WITH THE VALUES BEING BORDERLINE WITH THE
CRITERIA AND IT BEING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH
IT WILL BE VERY COLD...WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV
CRITERIA LVLS.

BY SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING AS THE HIGH NUDGES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND INJECTING IN WARMER AIR.
DESPITE THE WARMING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HOLDING OFF TILL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AND HAVE THUS A DRY FORECAST THRU
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHAT WAS ONCE LOOKING LIKE A POTL SNOWSTORM SUN-MON ISNT QUITE SO
CLEAR ANYMORE...AS 00Z GDNC--INCL THE ECMWF--HAS TRENDED WARMER.
LOPRES PROGGED TO CROSS THE MS RIVER MIDDAY SUN /ALREADY CONTAINING
GREATER THAN DESIRED PLACEMENT SPREAD/ AND ARRIVES IN CWFA SUN NGT.
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW LOOKING TO BE SOMEWHERE N OF THE VA/NC BRDR
BUT S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THAT IN TURN BUMPS THE TRACK OF THE
H8 LOW ACRS PA...PERMITTING WARM AIR TO PENETRATE REGION ALOFT.
THEREFORE...ALL SORTS OF PTYPE ISSUES EMERGE.

GFS BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WL START AS SNW SUNDAY BUT CHG TO
JUST RA SUN EVE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE VA SHEN VLY...ALL OF
METRO DC...AND EVEN PART OF METRO BALT. AM NOT READY TO GO THAT WARM
JUST YET...BUT NEED TO ENTERTAIN PSBLTYS OF PARTIAL MELTING OR EVEN
COMPLETE MELTING AND REFREEZING SINCE WET BULBS LKLY WL BE BELOW
32F. DO BELIEVE THAT SUNDAYS PCPN SHUD BE MAINLY SNOW WHERE IT ISNT
TOO WARM. GRIDS EMPHASIZING AFTN...AS THE MRNG HRS SHUD BE DEDICATED
TO SATURATION. WL HV A MIXED BAG FOR SUN NGT. MADE THE OVNGT HRS
MESSIER..THINKING THAT SFC COLD AIR CUD SEEP SWD ON BACK SIDE OF
LOW. BY 12Z MON...LOPRES WL BE OFFSHORE. AT THAT POINT...PTYPE
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN AGAIN AS ENUF COLD AIR SHUD DRAIN DOWN THRUT
THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT PCPN CHGG BACK TO SNW BEFORE ENDING.

GIVEN LTST TRENDS THERES TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTCOME TO
SUPPORT WATCHES. IN FACT WL BE ADJUSTING HWO FM ACCUM SNW TO A MORE
GENERIC WINTER WX. OVERALL...HV LWR THAN TYPICAL FCST CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK WL START COLD AS THE CSTL LOW STRENGTHENS...DRAGGING DOWN
COLD AIR. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE DROPPING TO -10 TO -14C. AT THAT RATE
MON-TUE MAXT WL HV TROUBLE RISING ABV FRZG...AND MIN-T MAY DIP BELOW
0 DEGF ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS.

GFS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SRN STREAM LOW WL FLLW MIDWEEK HIPRES
FOR A POTL STORMY THU. ITS STILL TBD IF WE WL RECEIVE THE LOW OR IT
WL PASS S OF CWFA. WL BE KEEPING POPS LOW AS THERES A LOT OF WX TO
GET THROUGH FIRST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY STRONG NW FLOW. WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW FLOW
OCCURRING BETWEEN 08-11Z. GUSTS START TIME +/- 1-2 HRS...GENERALLY IN
THE 20S THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING 30-40 KTS THIS AFTN/EVENING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS PSBL THOUGH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. KCHO COULD SEE GUSTS ENDING AS EARLY AS 06Z. ISO
SNOW SHOWER PSBL KMRB BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AND LITTLE
IMPACT TO CONDITIONS.

DECREASING WNW FLOW SAT WITH WINDS BCMG W SAT NIGHT. PSBL LOWERING
CIGS LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS APLENTY SUN AS LOPRES CROSSES TERMINALS. THE
AFTN-NIGHT TIME HRS SHUD BE MOST AFFECTED. PTYPE ISSUES EXIST. ITS
NO LONGER A CLEAR-CUT SNOW EVENT. THE LOW WL BE PULLING OFFSHORE
MON. CONDS WL IMPRV THRU THE DAY...BUT SHUD HV SOME STRONG NW WIND
GUSTS.

VFR TUE UNDER HIPRES.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 11Z...WITH GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY/THIS EVENING. GALES MAY START AS EARLY AS MID MORNING...BUT
BETTER CHC THIS AFTN/EVENING TIME PERIOD. COULD SEE LINGERING GALES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO
EXTEND THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. HIGH CONFIDENCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL
SET IN AT LEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ALL WATERS...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE FOR SAT NIGHT.

LOPRES APPRCHS WATERS SUN DAY AND CROSSES SUN NGT. TRACK OF LOW WL
PERMIT A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES AT NIGHT BEFORE CHGG BACK TO SNOW UPON
EXIT MON. ALSO ON MON SHUD BE STIFF NW WINDS AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS AS IT PULLS AWAY. AT LEAST SCA PSBL. WUDNT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT GLW...CONTINGENT UPON DETAILS THAT ARE STILL A LTL MURKY.
HIPRES WL RETURN BY TUE.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS RUNNING A FOOT AND A HALF ABV ASTRO NORMS WITH THE
OVNGT TIDE CYCLE. THX TO A QUARTER MOON...TIDES ARE AT THEIR LOW
POINT ASTRONOMICALLY...AND WE/RE ABLE TO ABSORB THE EXCESS WITHOUT
ISSUE. SITES IN THE NRN CHSPK BAY AREA REACHING CAUTIONS STAGES
THOUGH.

WINDS WL BE TURNING NW BHD A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIHGT HRS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT BLOW OUT TIDES. THEREFORE...WATER LEVELS WL
RETURN TO NORMAL EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300851
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
351 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...WITH 08Z OBS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING IT ACROSS CENTRAL MD AND VA. ON
GOING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH INCREASING NW FLOW
RESULTING IN UPSLOPING PRECIP. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THERE UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
REGION POSITIONED UNDER AN UPPER LVL TROUGH...BUT EXPECTING TOTALS
TO BE LIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...HAVE INCLUDED POPS
MAINLY ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG FORCING ALOFT AS A VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH WORKING WITH MOISTURE BEING STREAMED IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WITH THE STRONG NW FLOW COULD GENERATE ISO-SCT SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY THRU MID AFTN. OVER CENTRAL VA AND TO THE
SOUTH...HAVE INCLUDED FLURRIES WITH LESS FORCING EXPECTED AND WITH
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS OUTSIDE THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE PCPN...INCREASING NW FLOW WITH STRONG
CAA...DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEND TO POSSIBLE GUSTS ABV 40 KTS. WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY THRU THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. 00Z GFS THE
STRONGER SOLUTION WITH WINDS ALOFT...PLACING A LLJ 50-60 KTS BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. 00Z NAM AND ECMWF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OF
GUSTS INTO THE 40S. TIMING LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS
BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...THEN SPREADING EAST DURING
THE DAY...WITH THE EASTERN AREAS HAVING THE BETTER CHC OF REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE AFTN/THIS EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THRU SAT NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY LINGERING LIGHT UPSLOPING
SNOW SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SAT.

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS BEING USHERED IN AS 850MB TEMPS DIP BELOW -10 DEGREES
CELSIUS. USING A BLEND OF ADJMET/MOSGUIDE...TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE TEENS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHICH
SHOULD SEE LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH
THE ON GOING NW FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEEDING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12 DEGREES. HOWEVER...HAVE HELD OFF FOR ANY
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME WITH THE VALUES BEING BORDERLINE WITH THE
CRITERIA AND IT BEING MAINLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THOUGH
IT WILL BE VERY COLD...WIND CHILLS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABV
CRITERIA LVLS.

BY SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL WARMING AS THE HIGH NUDGES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND INJECTING IN WARMER AIR.
DESPITE THE WARMING...TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THRU AT LEAST SAT NIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OF
ANY PCPN MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HOLDING OFF TILL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AND HAVE THUS A DRY FORECAST THRU
THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHAT WAS ONCE LOOKING LIKE A POTL SNOWSTORM SUN-MON ISNT QUITE SO
CLEAR ANYMORE...AS 00Z GDNC--INCL THE ECMWF--HAS TRENDED WARMER.
LOPRES PROGGED TO CROSS THE MS RIVER MIDDAY SUN /ALREADY CONTAINING
GREATER THAN DESIRED PLACEMENT SPREAD/ AND ARRIVES IN CWFA SUN NGT.
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW LOOKING TO BE SOMEWHERE N OF THE VA/NC BRDR
BUT S OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THAT IN TURN BUMPS THE TRACK OF THE
H8 LOW ACRS PA...PERMITTING WARM AIR TO PENETRATE REGION ALOFT.
THEREFORE...ALL SORTS OF PTYPE ISSUES EMERGE.

GFS BUFKIT SNDGS SUGGEST THAT PCPN WL START AS SNW SUNDAY BUT CHG TO
JUST RA SUN EVE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE VA SHEN VLY...ALL OF
METRO DC...AND EVEN PART OF METRO BALT. AM NOT READY TO GO THAT WARM
JUST YET...BUT NEED TO ENTERTAIN PSBLTYS OF PARTIAL MELTING OR EVEN
COMPLETE MELTING AND REFREEZING SINCE WET BULBS LKLY WL BE BELOW
32F. DO BELIEVE THAT SUNDAYS PCPN SHUD BE MAINLY SNOW WHERE IT ISNT
TOO WARM. GRIDS EMPHASIZING AFTN...AS THE MRNG HRS SHUD BE DEDICATED
TO SATURATION. WL HV A MIXED BAG FOR SUN NGT. MADE THE OVNGT HRS
MESSIER..THINKING THAT SFC COLD AIR CUD SEEP SWD ON BACK SIDE OF
LOW. BY 12Z MON...LOPRES WL BE OFFSHORE. AT THAT POINT...PTYPE
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN AGAIN AS ENUF COLD AIR SHUD DRAIN DOWN THRUT
THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT PCPN CHGG BACK TO SNW BEFORE ENDING.

GIVEN LTST TRENDS THERES TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTCOME TO
SUPPORT WATCHES. IN FACT WL BE ADJUSTING HWO FM ACCUM SNW TO A MORE
GENERIC WINTER WX. OVERALL...HV LWR THAN TYPICAL FCST CONFIDENCE.

NEXT WEEK WL START COLD AS THE CSTL LOW STRENGTHENS...DRAGGING DOWN
COLD AIR. H8 TEMPS SHUD BE DROPPING TO -10 TO -14C. AT THAT RATE
MON-TUE MAXT WL HV TROUBLE RISING ABV FRZG...AND MIN-T MAY DIP BELOW
0 DEGF ACRS NRN MD AND IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS.

GFS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SRN STREAM LOW WL FLLW MIDWEEK HIPRES
FOR A POTL STORMY THU. ITS STILL TBD IF WE WL RECEIVE THE LOW OR IT
WL PASS S OF CWFA. WL BE KEEPING POPS LOW AS THERES A LOT OF WX TO
GET THROUGH FIRST.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SAT.

MAIN CONCERN TODAY STRONG NW FLOW. WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW FLOW
OCCURRING BETWEEN 08-11Z. GUSTS START TIME +/- 1-2 HRS...GENERALLY IN
THE 20S THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING 30-40 KTS THIS AFTN/EVENING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS PSBL THOUGH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. KCHO COULD SEE GUSTS ENDING AS EARLY AS 06Z. ISO
SNOW SHOWER PSBL KMRB BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AND LITTLE
IMPACT TO CONDITIONS.

DECREASING WNW FLOW SAT WITH WINDS BCMG W SAT NIGHT. PSBL LOWERING
CIGS LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS APLENTY SUN AS LOPRES CROSSES TERMINALS. THE
AFTN-NIGHT TIME HRS SHUD BE MOST AFFECTED. PTYPE ISSUES EXIST. ITS
NO LONGER A CLEAR-CUT SNOW EVENT. THE LOW WL BE PULLING OFFSHORE
MON. CONDS WL IMPRV THRU THE DAY...BUT SHUD HV SOME STRONG NW WIND
GUSTS.

VFR TUE UNDER HIPRES.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 11Z...WITH GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY/THIS EVENING. GALES MAY START AS EARLY AS MID MORNING...BUT
BETTER CHC THIS AFTN/EVENING TIME PERIOD. COULD SEE LINGERING GALES
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO
EXTEND THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. HIGH CONFIDENCE SCA CONDITIONS WILL
SET IN AT LEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT ALL WATERS...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE FOR SAT NIGHT.

LOPRES APPRCHS WATERS SUN DAY AND CROSSES SUN NGT. TRACK OF LOW WL
PERMIT A MIXED BAG OF PTYPES AT NIGHT BEFORE CHGG BACK TO SNOW UPON
EXIT MON. ALSO ON MON SHUD BE STIFF NW WINDS AS THE STORM
STRENGTHENS AS IT PULLS AWAY. AT LEAST SCA PSBL. WUDNT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT GLW...CONTINGENT UPON DETAILS THAT ARE STILL A LTL MURKY.
HIPRES WL RETURN BY TUE.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS RUNNING A FOOT AND A HALF ABV ASTRO NORMS WITH THE
OVNGT TIDE CYCLE. THX TO A QUARTER MOON...TIDES ARE AT THEIR LOW
POINT ASTRONOMICALLY...AND WE/RE ABLE TO ABSORB THE EXCESS WITHOUT
ISSUE. SITES IN THE NRN CHSPK BAY AREA REACHING CAUTIONS STAGES
THOUGH.

WINDS WL BE TURNING NW BHD A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYLIHGT HRS.
THIS WILL SUPPORT BLOW OUT TIDES. THEREFORE...WATER LEVELS WL
RETURN TO NORMAL EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     VAZ040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 300300
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA...AND THUS THE LARGE
PORTION OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE /EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/ UNTIL 1 AM AS A
VORT MAX WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LATE EVENING PRECIP
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. EXPECT P-TYPE TO EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW...BUT INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING AT
THE SURFACE. RUC FOR EXAMPLE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF -ZR AT HGR/MRB
LATE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FURTHER EAST TOWARD
BALTIMORE...BUT BY THE TIME THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WOULD GET
THERE THINK P-TYPE WOULD BE JUST SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THUS NO ADVISORY EXTENSION THAT FAR EAST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ALSO CONTINUE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND
SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AS WAS MENTIONED EARLIER A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FROPA WILL INITIATE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME GUSTY OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT. RE-POPULATED WINDS USING THE NAM
AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY /SEE SHORT TERM/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS AREA. BUFKIT POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM
AND GFS SUGGEST AOA 40 KT ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WBCNPWLWX HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. STRONG VORT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH ARE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

PREV...

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC WL LEAD TO A STRNG PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. BUFKIT
X-SXNS ARE SHOWING INXS OF 40 KT A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE GRND.
THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC. WE ARE ADVSRTSG THE
PSBLTY OF A WIND ADVSRY - MOST LKLY AREAS WL BE ABV 1500 FT AND
ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LM30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE RNG FRI NGT WL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING
OVRNGT...BUT W/ COLD TEMPS WINDS CHILLS XPCTD TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS E OF THE MTNS. PRSNTLY SEEING VALUES AS LOW AS -14 IN THE
HIGHLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTS A WIND CHILL ADVSRY WL BE NEEDED
FOR OUR FAR WRN AREA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE M SUNNY BUT COLD W/ HIGHS RANGING FM THE U20S TO
THE MU30S OVR MOST OF THE AREA.

SAT NGT WL BE COLD...BUT A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT. NO WINDS SO
WIND CHILL WL NOT BE A CONCERN.

WHAT HAD BEEN A SPLIT IN THE MODELS BETWEEN A LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND ANOTHER TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...TAKING IT EAST THRU S VA OR NC. THAT SUPPORTS
SNOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF OUR REGION. WOULD BE PASSING THRU AT A
GOOD CLIP BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUE. NEXT COLD FRONT POISED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT MRB
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE REST OF THE TERMINALS LOOK DRY WITH VFR CLOUD
DECK AROUND 5K FT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY AOA
40 KT FROM AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR
AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAF ATTM.

WINDY CONDS FRI AND FRI NGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NO
PROBS XPCTD AVIATION-WISE SAT OR SAT NGT.

SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VFR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE UP THE BAY TONIGHT DUE TO S/SE WINDS. WIND
SHIFT OCCURS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...AND GALES
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT FM FRI MRNG THRU THE ERLY HRS OF SAT
MRNG..AND THEN AN SCA WL LKLY GO INTO EFFECT AFTRWARDS FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE NGT. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING FOR SAT AND SAT NGT.

GUSTY WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.5 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CLOSER TO 1 FT ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER. HOWEVER DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...THESE ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND ANOMALIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>005-
     502.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR VAZ040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS/ABW
MARINE...BPP/CAS/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300300
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA...AND THUS THE LARGE
PORTION OF THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA PANHANDLE /EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT/ UNTIL 1 AM AS A
VORT MAX WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LATE EVENING PRECIP
JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. EXPECT P-TYPE TO EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW...BUT INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING
RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING AT
THE SURFACE. RUC FOR EXAMPLE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF -ZR AT HGR/MRB
LATE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FURTHER EAST TOWARD
BALTIMORE...BUT BY THE TIME THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WOULD GET
THERE THINK P-TYPE WOULD BE JUST SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THUS NO ADVISORY EXTENSION THAT FAR EAST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ALSO CONTINUE ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND
SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...AS WAS MENTIONED EARLIER A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FROPA WILL INITIATE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME GUSTY OVER THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT. RE-POPULATED WINDS USING THE NAM
AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITERIA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY /SEE SHORT TERM/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS AREA. BUFKIT POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM
AND GFS SUGGEST AOA 40 KT ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WBCNPWLWX HAS
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. STRONG VORT MAY ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH ARE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

PREV...

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC WL LEAD TO A STRNG PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. BUFKIT
X-SXNS ARE SHOWING INXS OF 40 KT A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE GRND.
THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC. WE ARE ADVSRTSG THE
PSBLTY OF A WIND ADVSRY - MOST LKLY AREAS WL BE ABV 1500 FT AND
ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LM30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE RNG FRI NGT WL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING
OVRNGT...BUT W/ COLD TEMPS WINDS CHILLS XPCTD TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS E OF THE MTNS. PRSNTLY SEEING VALUES AS LOW AS -14 IN THE
HIGHLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTS A WIND CHILL ADVSRY WL BE NEEDED
FOR OUR FAR WRN AREA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE M SUNNY BUT COLD W/ HIGHS RANGING FM THE U20S TO
THE MU30S OVR MOST OF THE AREA.

SAT NGT WL BE COLD...BUT A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT. NO WINDS SO
WIND CHILL WL NOT BE A CONCERN.

WHAT HAD BEEN A SPLIT IN THE MODELS BETWEEN A LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND ANOTHER TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...TAKING IT EAST THRU S VA OR NC. THAT SUPPORTS
SNOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF OUR REGION. WOULD BE PASSING THRU AT A
GOOD CLIP BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUE. NEXT COLD FRONT POISED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CAN/T RULE OUT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT MRB
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE REST OF THE TERMINALS LOOK DRY WITH VFR CLOUD
DECK AROUND 5K FT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A WIND SHIFT SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...POSSIBLY AOA
40 KT FROM AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR
AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAF ATTM.

WINDY CONDS FRI AND FRI NGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NO
PROBS XPCTD AVIATION-WISE SAT OR SAT NGT.

SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VFR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE UP THE BAY TONIGHT DUE TO S/SE WINDS. WIND
SHIFT OCCURS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...AND GALES
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

A GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT FM FRI MRNG THRU THE ERLY HRS OF SAT
MRNG..AND THEN AN SCA WL LKLY GO INTO EFFECT AFTRWARDS FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE NGT. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING FOR SAT AND SAT NGT.

GUSTY WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1.5 FT ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CLOSER TO 1 FT ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER. HOWEVER DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LOW ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...THESE ANOMALIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND ANOMALIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR DCZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR MDZ003-501-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ003>005-
     502.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR VAZ025>031-503-504-507-508.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR VAZ040-051>055-057-501-502-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR WVZ050>053-055-501>506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ051>053.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...CAS
AVIATION...BPP/CAS/ABW
MARINE...BPP/CAS/ABW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KLWX 300012
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
712 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
MD...EASTERN WV PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY OF
VIRGINIA FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING PRECIP
TO MOVE THROUGH AND THERE STILL MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH IT BEFORE P-TYPE WOULD LIKELY
CHANGE TO JUST SNOW OVERNIGHT.

HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM FOR NOW AS
WELL. MAIN BAND HAS MOVED EAST...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES LEFTOVER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MASON
DIXON LINE.

EVEN THOSE AREAS WHERE PRECIP IS DONE...TEMPS ALREADY BELOW
FREEZING OR DROPPING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOME
SLICK SPOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV...

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THEREFORE A
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM LAKE ERIE TO OH/IN TO KY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA...PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. A NOSE OF +3 WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT
850MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB BUT COLD
SURFACES FROM RECENT COLD TEMPS AND SNOWPACK HAS SLOWED THEM FROM
CLIMBING MUCH. MANY OBS ARE AOB FREEZING AROUND WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE AND NORTH AND WEST ARE SUCH THAT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC HAS MAINLY ALLOWED TEMPS IN VALLEYS IN CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD TO RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 10-15KTS. THIS IS A BORDERLINE EVENT SINCE MANY ROAD
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT MESONET OBS ARE NOT. EVEN THOUGH ASOS
AND AWOS SITES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MANY OBS BETWEEN THOSE
SITES ARE NOT. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD MAY MELT
AND FREEZE ON CONTACT ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. FURTHER
NORTH NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO MORE
SLEET AND SNOW THAN FZRA BUT ALL FROZEN PTYPES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION RATHER WELL THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY 8PM. TEMPS SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE RAIN AND SLEET ARE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPES IN THIS REGION. THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND AND MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT REACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATION OF
4-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRY WESTERLY WIND EAST OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 20S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID 30S FROM WASHINGTON DC AND
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC WL LEAD TO A STRNG PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. BUFKIT
X-SXNS ARE SHOWING INXS OF 40 KT A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE GRND.
THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC. WE ARE ADVSRTSG THE
PSBLTY OF A WIND ADVSRY - MOST LKLY AREAS WL BE ABV 1500 FT AND
ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LM30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE RNG FRI NGT WL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING
OVRNGT...BUT W/ COLD TEMPS WINDS CHILLS XPCTD TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS E OF THE MTNS. PRSNTLY SEEING VALUES AS LOW AS -14 IN THE
HIGHLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTS A WIND CHILL ADVSRY WL BE NEEDED
FOR OUR FAR WRN AREA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE M SUNNY BUT COLD W/ HIGHS RANGING FM THE U20S TO
THE MU30S OVR MOST OF THE AREA.

SAT NGT WL BE COLD...BUT A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT. NO WINDS SO
WIND CHILL WL NOT BE A CONCERN.

WHAT HAD BEEN A SPLIT IN THE MODELS BETWEEN A LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND ANOTHER TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...TAKING IT EAST THRU S VA OR NC. THAT SUPPORTS
SNOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF OUR REGION. WOULD BE PASSING THRU AT A
GOOD CLIP BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUE. NEXT COLD FRONT POISED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
TERMINALS. PRECIP WILL MOVE QUICK AND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY ENDING ACROSS BWI-MTN-DCA BY 8PM. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD-DCA-MTN-BWI AS COLDER AIR FURTHER NORTH GIVES A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNPL. FURTHER SOUTH..CHO SHOULD STAY RAPL. S
WINDS 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A STRONG FROPA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS 20-25KTS G
35-40 EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

WINDY CONDS FRI AND FRI NGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NO
PROBS XPCTD AVIATION-WISE SAT OR SAT NGT.

SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VFR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. A MIX OF SNOW
SLEET AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD END BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A
STRONG FROPA MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. NW WINDS
20-25KT GUST AROUND 45KTS POSSIBLE. SCA ARE IN EFFECT AND WILL
TRANSITION TO A GALE WARNING FRIDAY.

A GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT FM FRI MRNG THRU THE ERLY HRS OF SAT
MRNG..AND THEN AN SCA WL LKLY GO INTO EFFECT AFTRWARDS FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE NGT. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING FOR SAT AND SAT NGT.

GUSTY WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ003>006-011-013-014-502>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-
     031-052>054-501-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
BPP/HAS/WOODY!/CAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 292057
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STILL HAVE SEVERAL MESONET OBS SHOWING 31/32 DEG F IN ANNE
ARUNDEL...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES. WITH PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO MOVE ANY HIGHER /IN FACT GIVEN
DEWPOINTS THEY COULD DROP A DEGREE OR TWO/...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST TO THE BAY TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED
WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

PREV...

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THEREFORE A
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM LAKE ERIE TO OH/IN TO KY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA...PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. A NOSE OF +3 WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT
850MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB BUT COLD
SURFACES FROM RECENT COLD TEMPS AND SNOWPACK HAS SLOWED THEM FROM
CLIMBING MUCH. MANY OBS ARE AOB FREEZING AROUND WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE AND NORTH AND WEST ARE SUCH THAT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC HAS MAINLY ALLOWED TEMPS IN VALLEYS IN CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD TO RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 10-15KTS. THIS IS A BORDERLINE EVENT SINCE MANY ROAD
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT MESONET OBS ARE NOT. EVEN THOUGH ASOS
AND AWOS SITES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MANY OBS BETWEEN THOSE
SITES ARE NOT. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD MAY MELT
AND FREEZE ON CONTACT ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. FURTHER
NORTH NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO MORE
SLEET AND SNOW THAN FZRA BUT ALL FROZEN PTYPES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION RATHER WELL THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY 8PM. TEMPS SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE RAIN AND SLEET ARE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPES IN THIS REGION. THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND AND MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT REACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATION OF
4-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRY WESTERLY WIND EAST OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 20S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID 30S FROM WASHINGTON DC AND
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC WL LEAD TO A STRNG PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. BUFKIT
X-SXNS ARE SHOWING INXS OF 40 KT A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE GRND.
THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC. WE ARE ADVSRTSG THE
PSBLTY OF A WIND ADVSRY - MOST LKLY AREAS WL BE ABV 1500 FT AND
ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LM30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE RNG FRI NGT WL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING
OVRNGT...BUT W/ COLD TEMPS WINDS CHILLS XPCTD TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS E OF THE MTNS. PRSNTLY SEEING VALUES AS LOW AS -14 IN THE
HIGHLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTS A WIND CHILL ADVSRY WL BE NEEDED
FOR OUR FAR WRN AREA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE M SUNNY BUT COLD W/ HIGHS RANGING FM THE U20S TO
THE MU30S OVR MOST OF THE AREA.

SAT NGT WL BE COLD...BUT A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT. NO WINDS SO
WIND CHILL WL NOT BE A CONCERN.

WHAT HAD BEEN A SPLIT IN THE MODELS BETWEEN A LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND ANOTHER TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...TAKING IT EAST THRU S VA OR NC. THAT SUPPORTS
SNOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF OUR REGION. WOULD BE PASSING THRU AT A
GOOD CLIP BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUE. NEXT COLD FRONT POISED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
TERMINALS. PRECIP WILL MOVE QUICK AND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY ENDING ACROSS BWI-MTN-DCA BY 8PM. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD-DCA-MTN-BWI AS COLDER AIR FURTHER NORTH GIVES A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNPL. FURTHER SOUTH..CHO SHOULD STAY RAPL. S
WINDS 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A STRONG FROPA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS 20-25KTS G
35-40 EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

WINDY CONDS FRI AND FRI NGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NO
PROBS XPCTD AVIATION-WISE SAT OR SAT NGT.

SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VFR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. A MIX OF SNOW
SLEET AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD END BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A
STRONG FROPA MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. NW WINDS
20-25KT GUST AROUND 45KTS POSSIBLE. SCA ARE IN EFFECT AND WILL
TRANSITION TO A GALE WARNING FRIDAY.

A GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT FM FRI MRNG THRU THE ERLY HRS OF SAT
MRNG..AND THEN AN SCA WL LKLY GO INTO EFFECT AFTRWARDS FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE NGT. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING FOR SAT AND SAT NGT.

GUSTY WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ027-
     028-030-031-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ052>054-501-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
BPP/HAS/WOODY!/CAS










000
FXUS61 KLWX 292057
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STILL HAVE SEVERAL MESONET OBS SHOWING 31/32 DEG F IN ANNE
ARUNDEL...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTIES. WITH PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO MOVE ANY HIGHER /IN FACT GIVEN
DEWPOINTS THEY COULD DROP A DEGREE OR TWO/...HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND
EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST TO THE BAY TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXED
WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.

PREV...

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THEREFORE A
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM LAKE ERIE TO OH/IN TO KY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA...PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. A NOSE OF +3 WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT
850MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB BUT COLD
SURFACES FROM RECENT COLD TEMPS AND SNOWPACK HAS SLOWED THEM FROM
CLIMBING MUCH. MANY OBS ARE AOB FREEZING AROUND WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE AND NORTH AND WEST ARE SUCH THAT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC HAS MAINLY ALLOWED TEMPS IN VALLEYS IN CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD TO RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 10-15KTS. THIS IS A BORDERLINE EVENT SINCE MANY ROAD
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT MESONET OBS ARE NOT. EVEN THOUGH ASOS
AND AWOS SITES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MANY OBS BETWEEN THOSE
SITES ARE NOT. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD MAY MELT
AND FREEZE ON CONTACT ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. FURTHER
NORTH NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO MORE
SLEET AND SNOW THAN FZRA BUT ALL FROZEN PTYPES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION RATHER WELL THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY 8PM. TEMPS SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE RAIN AND SLEET ARE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPES IN THIS REGION. THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND AND MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT REACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATION OF
4-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRY WESTERLY WIND EAST OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 20S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID 30S FROM WASHINGTON DC AND
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC WL LEAD TO A STRNG PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. BUFKIT
X-SXNS ARE SHOWING INXS OF 40 KT A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE GRND.
THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC. WE ARE ADVSRTSG THE
PSBLTY OF A WIND ADVSRY - MOST LKLY AREAS WL BE ABV 1500 FT AND
ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LM30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE RNG FRI NGT WL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING
OVRNGT...BUT W/ COLD TEMPS WINDS CHILLS XPCTD TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS E OF THE MTNS. PRSNTLY SEEING VALUES AS LOW AS -14 IN THE
HIGHLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTS A WIND CHILL ADVSRY WL BE NEEDED
FOR OUR FAR WRN AREA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE M SUNNY BUT COLD W/ HIGHS RANGING FM THE U20S TO
THE MU30S OVR MOST OF THE AREA.

SAT NGT WL BE COLD...BUT A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT. NO WINDS SO
WIND CHILL WL NOT BE A CONCERN.

WHAT HAD BEEN A SPLIT IN THE MODELS BETWEEN A LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND ANOTHER TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...TAKING IT EAST THRU S VA OR NC. THAT SUPPORTS
SNOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF OUR REGION. WOULD BE PASSING THRU AT A
GOOD CLIP BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUE. NEXT COLD FRONT POISED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
TERMINALS. PRECIP WILL MOVE QUICK AND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY ENDING ACROSS BWI-MTN-DCA BY 8PM. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD-DCA-MTN-BWI AS COLDER AIR FURTHER NORTH GIVES A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNPL. FURTHER SOUTH..CHO SHOULD STAY RAPL. S
WINDS 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A STRONG FROPA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS 20-25KTS G
35-40 EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

WINDY CONDS FRI AND FRI NGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NO
PROBS XPCTD AVIATION-WISE SAT OR SAT NGT.

SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VFR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. A MIX OF SNOW
SLEET AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD END BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A
STRONG FROPA MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. NW WINDS
20-25KT GUST AROUND 45KTS POSSIBLE. SCA ARE IN EFFECT AND WILL
TRANSITION TO A GALE WARNING FRIDAY.

A GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT FM FRI MRNG THRU THE ERLY HRS OF SAT
MRNG..AND THEN AN SCA WL LKLY GO INTO EFFECT AFTRWARDS FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE NGT. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING FOR SAT AND SAT NGT.

GUSTY WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ027-
     028-030-031-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ052>054-501-505-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
BPP/HAS/WOODY!/CAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 291952
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND THEREFORE A
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM LAKE ERIE TO OH/IN TO KY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WAA...PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS AND HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. A NOSE OF +3 WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT
850MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB BUT COLD
SURFACES FROM RECENT COLD TEMPS AND SNOWPACK HAS SLOWED THEM FROM
CLIMBING MUCH. MANY OBS ARE AOB FREEZING AROUND WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE AND NORTH AND WEST ARE SUCH THAT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC HAS MAINLY ALLOWED TEMPS IN VALLEYS IN CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD TO RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 10-15KTS. THIS IS A BORDERLINE EVENT SINCE MANY ROAD
TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT MESONET OBS ARE NOT. EVEN THOUGH ASOS
AND AWOS SITES ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...MANY OBS BETWEEN THOSE
SITES ARE NOT. THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD MAY MELT
AND FREEZE ON CONTACT ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. FURTHER
NORTH NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...COLDER TEMPS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO MORE
SLEET AND SNOW THAN FZRA BUT ALL FROZEN PTYPES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION RATHER WELL THIS
MORNING. ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION TO BE EAST OF THE WESTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY 8PM. TEMPS SOUTH OF WASHINGTON DC ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE RAIN AND SLEET ARE THE MAIN
PRECIP TYPES IN THIS REGION. THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND AND MOVE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT REACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
WESTERN SLOPES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO FRIDAY. ACCUMULATION OF
4-8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DRY WESTERLY WIND EAST OF THE ALLGHENY FRONT
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL
REACH THE 20S IN THE MTNS AND LOW TO MID 30S FROM WASHINGTON DC AND
SOUTH AND EAST ALONG I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC WL LEAD TO A STRNG PRES GRAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WL LEAD TO A WINDY DAY. BUFKIT
X-SXNS ARE SHOWING INXS OF 40 KT A FEW THOUSAND FT OFF THE GRND.
THIS WL HV THE PTNL TO BE BROUGHT TO THE SFC. WE ARE ADVSRTSG THE
PSBLTY OF A WIND ADVSRY - MOST LKLY AREAS WL BE ABV 1500 FT AND
ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.

HIGHS IN THE LM30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE RNG FRI NGT WL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPS. LOWS
IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING
OVRNGT...BUT W/ COLD TEMPS WINDS CHILLS XPCTD TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS E OF THE MTNS. PRSNTLY SEEING VALUES AS LOW AS -14 IN THE
HIGHLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTS A WIND CHILL ADVSRY WL BE NEEDED
FOR OUR FAR WRN AREA.

SAT LOOKS TO BE M SUNNY BUT COLD W/ HIGHS RANGING FM THE U20S TO
THE MU30S OVR MOST OF THE AREA.

SAT NGT WL BE COLD...BUT A LTL WARMER THAN FRI NGT. NO WINDS SO
WIND CHILL WL NOT BE A CONCERN.

WHAT HAD BEEN A SPLIT IN THE MODELS BETWEEN A LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND ANOTHER TRACK TO OUR SOUTH SEEMS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...TAKING IT EAST THRU S VA OR NC. THAT SUPPORTS
SNOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF OUR REGION. WOULD BE PASSING THRU AT A
GOOD CLIP BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR SUN
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TUE. NEXT COLD FRONT POISED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE
TERMINALS. PRECIP WILL MOVE QUICK AND FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY ENDING ACROSS BWI-MTN-DCA BY 8PM. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MRB-IAD-DCA-MTN-BWI AS COLDER AIR FURTHER NORTH GIVES A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SNPL. FURTHER SOUTH..CHO SHOULD STAY RAPL. S
WINDS 10-15KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A STRONG FROPA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS 20-25KTS G
35-40 EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS.

WINDY CONDS FRI AND FRI NGT AS HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. NO
PROBS XPCTD AVIATION-WISE SAT OR SAT NGT.

SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH. VFR FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. A MIX OF SNOW
SLEET AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD END BY LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A
STRONG FROPA MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. NW WINDS
20-25KT GUST AROUND 45KTS POSSIBLE. SCA ARE IN EFFECT AND WILL
TRANSITION TO A GALE WARNING FRIDAY.

A GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT FM FRI MRNG THRU THE ERLY HRS OF SAT
MRNG..AND THEN AN SCA WL LKLY GO INTO EFFECT AFTRWARDS FOR THE
RMNDR OF THE NGT. WINDS WL BE DIMINISHING FOR SAT AND SAT NGT.

GUSTY WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ027-
     028-030-031-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ052-
     053-501-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 291824 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
124 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED A TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON DC SUBURBS AND MUCH OF THE BALTIMORE METRO
AREA. THE ADZY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 3PM UNTIL PM FOR AREAS E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY ARRIVING OVER THE
APLCNS FROM THE WEST...PRECIP OUT AHEAD WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO
THE COLD/DRY AIR AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING ON SFCS WHERE TEMPS
REMAIN AOB FREEZING.

FROM PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO RISE
TODAY. SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW TEMPS FROM
RISING AS FAST AS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD. SFC TEMPS WILL BE A
CONCERN TODAY AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN IN MANY PLACES. CLOUD COVER
MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING TODAY AS WELL.
THAT BEING SAID...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NEAR THE MD/PA
BORDER TO THE LOW 40S FROM DCA-CHO-NHK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP SCOUR OUT VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AND SHD-
WOO-W99 SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. A CAVEAT IS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND WESTWARD. ZR IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS
MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN OUTLOOK AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TODAY. DCA IS ALREADY AT 31 DEGREES BUT SURROUNDING
SUBURBS ARE IN THE 20S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PTYPE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AT THIS TIME...TEMPS
ARE FCST TO GO ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. AS
GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING DECISIONS WILL BE MADE IF WE NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ027-
     028-030-031-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ052-
     053-501-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...HAS/BJL/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 291824 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
124 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED A TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON DC SUBURBS AND MUCH OF THE BALTIMORE METRO
AREA. THE ADZY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 3PM UNTIL PM FOR AREAS E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MTNS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY ARRIVING OVER THE
APLCNS FROM THE WEST...PRECIP OUT AHEAD WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN INTO
THE COLD/DRY AIR AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING ON SFCS WHERE TEMPS
REMAIN AOB FREEZING.

FROM PREV DISC...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO RISE
TODAY. SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW TEMPS FROM
RISING AS FAST AS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD. SFC TEMPS WILL BE A
CONCERN TODAY AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN IN MANY PLACES. CLOUD COVER
MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING TODAY AS WELL.
THAT BEING SAID...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NEAR THE MD/PA
BORDER TO THE LOW 40S FROM DCA-CHO-NHK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP SCOUR OUT VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AND SHD-
WOO-W99 SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S. A CAVEAT IS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON THE BLUE RIDGE AND WESTWARD. ZR IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS
MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN OUTLOOK AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TODAY. DCA IS ALREADY AT 31 DEGREES BUT SURROUNDING
SUBURBS ARE IN THE 20S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PTYPE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AT THIS TIME...TEMPS
ARE FCST TO GO ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. AS
GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING DECISIONS WILL BE MADE IF WE NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES.
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-
     502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ004>006-011-503>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ027-
     028-030-031-504.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ052-
     053-501-505-506.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-503-
     505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...HAS/BJL/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 291444
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE WINTRY MIX EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE OUTLOOK AREA DROPPED INTO THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING SFC TEMPS TO REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY AS PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR.

A 40KT 925MB LLJ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS AT 925MB WILL BECOME +32 F.
850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BECOME +32 F TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH WARM AIR OVER COLD AIR/SURFACES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO RISE TODAY.
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING AS
FAST AS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD. SFC TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN
TODAY AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN IN MANY PLACES. CLOUD COVER MOVING
OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING TODAY AS WELL. THAT BEING
SAID...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO
THE LOW 40S FROM DCA-CHO-NHK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP SCOUR OUT
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AND SHD-WOO-W99 SHOULD RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A CAVEAT IS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE BLUE
RIDGE AND WESTWARD. ZR IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN OUTLOOK AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TODAY. DCA IS ALREADY AT 31 DEGREES BUT SURROUNDING
SUBURBS ARE IN THE 20S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PTYPE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AT THIS TIME...TEMPS
ARE FCST TO GO ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. AS
GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING DECISIONS WILL BE MADE IF WE NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 291444
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
944 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE WINTRY MIX EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE OUTLOOK AREA DROPPED INTO THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT CAUSING SFC TEMPS TO REACH THE
TEENS AND 20S. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE TODAY AS PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN TIME FOR THE EVENING RUSH
HOUR.

A 40KT 925MB LLJ AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS AT 925MB WILL BECOME +32 F.
850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BECOME +32 F TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH WARM AIR OVER COLD AIR/SURFACES.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW TEMPS AND DEWPTS TO RISE TODAY.
SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC WILL SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING AS
FAST AS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN MD. SFC TEMPS WILL BE A CONCERN
TODAY AS THE GROUND IS FROZEN IN MANY PLACES. CLOUD COVER MOVING
OVERHEAD WILL ALSO SLOW TEMPS FROM RISING TODAY AS WELL. THAT BEING
SAID...TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER TO
THE LOW 40S FROM DCA-CHO-NHK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP SCOUR OUT
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS WELL AND SHD-WOO-W99 SHOULD RISE
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A CAVEAT IS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON THE BLUE
RIDGE AND WESTWARD. ZR IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR AND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE NRN OUTLOOK AREA. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED TODAY. DCA IS ALREADY AT 31 DEGREES BUT SURROUNDING
SUBURBS ARE IN THE 20S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PTYPE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. AT THIS TIME...TEMPS
ARE FCST TO GO ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. AS
GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS MORNING DECISIONS WILL BE MADE IF WE NEED TO
EXTEND THE ADVISORY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND ONLY A THIN DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...IT
WILL BE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MID TO UPPER 20S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FROM A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CAUSE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE POSES A THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FROM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD CONDITIONS...ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES EVEN IF THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR PAVEMENT TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE RAIN MAY FREEZE ON
SOME SURFACES EVEN WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.

ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDY AND COLD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND ONLY A THIN DECK OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALLOWED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...IT
WILL BE QUITE COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT MID TO UPPER 20S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM
THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FROM A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
CAUSE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD AND DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE POSES A THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABOUT ONE TO TWO HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FROM OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD CONDITIONS...ANY
FREEZING RAIN THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON UNTREATED
SURFACES EVEN IF THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS WILL IMPACT THE EVENING RUSH. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...AND THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR PAVEMENT TEMPS TODAY BECAUSE RAIN MAY FREEZE ON
SOME SURFACES EVEN WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING.

ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLD CONDITIONS. IN FACT...TEMPS MAY
HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS
TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. MORE UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL NOON...BUT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK COATING IN SPOTS AND WITH SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY THAT COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
TRAVEL...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE LOCALIZED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
AND EAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FRI
EVENING EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE NW FLOW INJECTS MUCH DRIER AIR.
MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ALMOST 10-15 DEGREES BELOW. COMBINING WITH NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS 20-30 KTS...AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS 30-35 KTS...WIND CHILLS
FORECASTED TO DROP TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE...AND
POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR
THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF ADJMETBC/MOSBC WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING WELL FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SE US SAT WHILE A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP DURING THE DAY...AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS SAT
NIGHT-SUN MORNING. THE PATTERN KEEPS THE AREA DRY THOUGH COLD THRU
SAT WITH TEMPS STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. WARMING TREND BY SAT
NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO SW FLOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND
-5 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NEXT CHC FOR PCPN SUN-MON WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER GOM AND
RIDING A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. SOME QUESTION REMAINS
ON PCPN TIMING AND INTENSITY...AND AS SUCH THEN P-TYPE. GFS/CMC
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS
DEEPER SOUTH...AND PICKS UP SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A SEPARATION. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS BY SUN AFTN OVER WESTERN AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF PCPN...THEN SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST FOR
SUN NIGHT-MON. CONCERNING PCPN TYPE...MAINTAINED MAINLY A SNOW
EVENT...WITH PSBL TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE AFTN SUN OVER JUST
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. HIGHER CONFIDENCE ANY PCPN ON
MONDAY REMAINS ALL SNOW WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING -10 TO -15 DEGREES
CELSIUS DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW BECOMES CLEARER ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS...WILL BE ABLE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON P-TYPE AND AMTS AT
THE ONSET.

PCPN CLEARS THE AREA BY TUES MORNING...WITH SFC HIGH BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COLD TEMPS. TRENDED COLDER WITH HIGHS TUES
AND LOWS TUES NIGHT AS A RESULT. MODEL DIVERGENCE BY MID WEEK ON THE
HANDLING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH PCPN PSBL ONCE AGAIN
LATE WED-THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 KNOTS FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR LIKELY...PSBL SUB-VFR LATE SAT NIGHT.
GUSTY NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS FRI NIGHT...BCMG LESS
THAN 10 KTS BY SAT AFTN. PSBL LLWS FRI NIGHT WITH 2KFT WINDS 40-50
KTS.

SUN-MON...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH PCPN...PSBL SUB-IFR SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING. WINTRY MIX PSBL. INCREASING NW WINDS MON...GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

MON NIGHT-TUES NIGHT...VFR LIKELY.

WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY.

GALES LIKELY AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT ON CHESAPEAKE
BAY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE UPPER POTOMAC. OCNL GALES MAY LINGER TILL
DAYBREAK SAT ON THE BAY. WINDS SUBSIDE SAT BUT REMAINING 15-20 KTS
DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...AND REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUN
NIGHT-MON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ501.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003-502.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ004-005-503-505.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR VAZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ028-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ505.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ503.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ501-505.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-504.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/SEARS
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 290216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WINDY AND
DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AND WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. MAY HAVE A FEW CIRRUS STARTING TO
SPILL OVERTOP THE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE...BUT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THAT WILL SUPPORT A COLD NIGHT...USED A
BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/SREFS FOR MINIMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND GUSTS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WINDS WILL BECOME VRB03KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH IT THURSDAY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH P-TYPE...BUT
GIVEN POTENTIAL WET BULBING MAY LEAN MORE TOWARD -SN FOR THE BULK
OF THE EVENT /WHICH LIKELY ONLY LASTS A FEW HOURS/.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW
WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND SCA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK
TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...BPP/GMS/SMZ
MARINE...BPP/GMS/SMZ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 290216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A WINDY AND
DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY AND WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. MAY HAVE A FEW CIRRUS STARTING TO
SPILL OVERTOP THE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE...BUT GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT THAT WILL SUPPORT A COLD NIGHT...USED A
BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MET/SREFS FOR MINIMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND GUSTS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WINDS WILL BECOME VRB03KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH IT THURSDAY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH P-TYPE...BUT
GIVEN POTENTIAL WET BULBING MAY LEAN MORE TOWARD -SN FOR THE BULK
OF THE EVENT /WHICH LIKELY ONLY LASTS A FEW HOURS/.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW
WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND SCA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN LIKELY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK
TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/GMS
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...BPP/GMS/SMZ
MARINE...BPP/GMS/SMZ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 281930
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A
WINDY AND DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
SUNDAY AND WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE DAY STARTED OFF W/ A QUICK INCREASE OF TEMPS...IT
LEVELED-OFF LATE MRNG W/ ONLY A SLOW CLIMB TO OUR MAX WHICH IS
LIKELY OCCURRING HERE IN THE MIDDLE AFTN. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...NOT IDEAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER
THAN A BITING COLD FEEL TO THE AIR. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-25MPH
RANGE ARE ADDING TO THE DISCOMFORT...THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM THE LATE AFTN HRS THRU THE EVE. PAST
SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BE ONLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. BY THEN...THE
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER SHARP TEMP DROP LATE
TONIGHT BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE CERTAIN THAT THIS
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THE MAIN WX CONCERN FOR AREA AIRPORTS
INTO EARLY THU. CLR SKIES BUT GUSTY WINDS MARK THIS AFTN`S
PERIOD...THO GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. SLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP MID-MRNG THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT WILL CARRY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW
OF THE LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. TIMING
AND PRECIP- TYPES MAY BECOME MORE CLEAR CLOSER TO THE
PASSAGE...WHICH IS TOWARD LATER PART OF THE CURRENT TAF CYCLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW WINDS
AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD LOW-END SCA CONDS THIS AFTN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. A BRIEF LULL OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU
AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HAS/SMZ
AVIATION...GMS/HAS/SMZ
MARINE...GMS/HAS/SMZ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 281930
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
230 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A
WINDY AND DRY FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
SUNDAY AND WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH THE DAY STARTED OFF W/ A QUICK INCREASE OF TEMPS...IT
LEVELED-OFF LATE MRNG W/ ONLY A SLOW CLIMB TO OUR MAX WHICH IS
LIKELY OCCURRING HERE IN THE MIDDLE AFTN. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...NOT IDEAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER
THAN A BITING COLD FEEL TO THE AIR. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 20-25MPH
RANGE ARE ADDING TO THE DISCOMFORT...THOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM THE LATE AFTN HRS THRU THE EVE. PAST
SUNSET...WINDS SHOULD BE ONLY A LIGHT NW BREEZE. BY THEN...THE
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER SHARP TEMP DROP LATE
TONIGHT BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE CERTAIN THAT THIS
OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DENSE HIGH CIRRUS WILL START THE DAY ON THU...W/ A CONTINUED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S THRU
THE MRNG. A COLD FRONT TAILING DOWN FROM A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR NORTH WILL QUICKLY TRUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THU. BY MIDDAY...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE CNTRL APLCNS - SLIDING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THRU THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

A STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND WILL HELP BUMP TEMPS BACK UP INTO
THE M-U30S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA. NRN MD
AND JUST INTO NRN VA WILL STILL BE HANGING ONTO THE NEAR OR SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS AS PRECIP APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WILL GREET THE INCOMING PRECIP...LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH OF
IT FROM REACHING THE SFC UNTIL FROPA TOWARD THE LATE AFTN PERIOD.
THE LOWER ATMOS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW - POSSIBLY SLEET - AS THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP
ARRIVES. THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA /NRN MD/ WILL LIKELY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW W/ SOME LIQUID MIXED-IN AND THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE...ALBEIT
VERY LIGHT. A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TIER OF COUNTIES
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE I-66 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS/BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE...SO PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
LIMITED TO THIS BAND AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY - MINUS THE APLCNS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL THEN BECOME
THE FOCUS OF MULTI-PERIOD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS W/ POTENTIAL
ADVISORY SNOWS FOR THESE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE CNTRL APLCNS.

AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PVA AND A COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FRIDAY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME. COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
LOW 30S ALONG I-95. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
IN THE TEENS TO 20S. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
SUBSIDE SOME WITH GUSTS AROUND 30MPH INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FCST MIN
TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WC ADVISORIES MAY BE WARRANTED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BALT/DC METROS INCLUDING WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY REBOUND FROM READING
IN THE TEENS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF
I-81. FAIR SKIES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL HEAD EAST.
MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SW WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE TOUGHER TO ERODE UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECTING A
WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIP SUGGESTS THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. OF COURSE CONFIDENCE OF
TIMING PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC...AND MODEL CHANGE OF
ONLY 6 HRS WILL HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON JUST WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP
WILL FALL. HOWEVER AM CONCERNED ABOUT COMING OUT OF A 36 HOUR OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND MODELS TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR TOO
FAST. THUS ADDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHO THE 12Z GFS IS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE PRECIP OUT
QUICKLY SUN NIGHT.

MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY IN
THE DAY BRINGING END TO PRECIP. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY
4-8 DEGREES-F. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WED. TUE WILL BE COLD...ABOUT 10-14 DEGF BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS
ON WED MODERATE SOME. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THE MAIN WX CONCERN FOR AREA AIRPORTS
INTO EARLY THU. CLR SKIES BUT GUSTY WINDS MARK THIS AFTN`S
PERIOD...THO GUSTS WILL DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. SLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP MID-MRNG THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONT WILL CARRY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF WINDOW
OF THE LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. TIMING
AND PRECIP- TYPES MAY BECOME MORE CLEAR CLOSER TO THE
PASSAGE...WHICH IS TOWARD LATER PART OF THE CURRENT TAF CYCLE.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
20-25KTS G 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT CONTINUE OUT OF THE NW 10-15KTS G20KTS. NW WINDS
AROUND 5-10KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD LOW-END SCA CONDS THIS AFTN WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS. A BRIEF LULL OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN SLY CHANNELING WILL BEGIN LATE THE AFTN THU AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SWING THRU THE AREA LATE THU
AFTN/EVE...SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO NWLY WHERE THEY STILL STAY THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK.

POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
GUSTY AND GALES OR SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. NW WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/SMZ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HAS/SMZ
AVIATION...GMS/HAS/SMZ
MARINE...GMS/HAS/SMZ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 281525 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT DAY TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE...AS THE ACTIVE
LATE JAN CONTINUES. TODAY IS THE ONE-DAY REPRIEVE...IN TERMS OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP AT LEAST. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH
ONE THE HAND WILL HELP OUR TEMPS QUICKLY CLIMB OUT OF A DEEP
FREEZE FROM OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT ALSO IS EVIDENCE THAT
SUBSIDENCE IS IN CONTROL AND EFFICIENTLY DROPPING GUSTY AND COLD
LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. SO DESPITE AMPLE SUN...IT OUR
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HRS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE NRN AND WRN HALVES OF THE
CWA UNDER DECENT SNOW COVER...WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF A LID OF
TEMPS TODAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE LATE EVE HRS.
COMBINE THE CLEAR SKIES W/ VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HOWEVER AND AIR
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CRASH DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS OVER THE
NRN TIER AND THE APLCNS. WINDS CHILLS WON`T BE AS CHILLY OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS SUBSIDE W/ HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING OVER THE REGION TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
FOR THIS CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
BUT NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF
WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...
KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL










000
FXUS61 KLWX 281525 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUITE A DIFFERENT DAY TODAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE...AS THE ACTIVE
LATE JAN CONTINUES. TODAY IS THE ONE-DAY REPRIEVE...IN TERMS OF
CLOUDS AND PRECIP AT LEAST. CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH
ONE THE HAND WILL HELP OUR TEMPS QUICKLY CLIMB OUT OF A DEEP
FREEZE FROM OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT ALSO IS EVIDENCE THAT
SUBSIDENCE IS IN CONTROL AND EFFICIENTLY DROPPING GUSTY AND COLD
LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. SO DESPITE AMPLE SUN...IT OUR
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGHOUT
THE DAYTIME HRS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THE NRN AND WRN HALVES OF THE
CWA UNDER DECENT SNOW COVER...WHICH WILL KEEP A BIT OF A LID OF
TEMPS TODAY.

THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS AFTN WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE LATE EVE HRS.
COMBINE THE CLEAR SKIES W/ VERY LOW DEWPOINTS HOWEVER AND AIR
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN CRASH DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS OVER THE
NRN TIER AND THE APLCNS. WINDS CHILLS WON`T BE AS CHILLY OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS SUBSIDE W/ HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING OVER THE REGION TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY
FOR THIS CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY
BUT NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF
WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...
KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL











000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 280852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
GRADEINT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
REACH THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE FOECAST AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START
THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND BAY COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR THIS
CLIPPER TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATER THURSDAY BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER AND
WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE DAY GENERALLY N AND W OF WASHINGTON DC. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH WILL SEE MOSTLY LIQUID. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING P-TYPES. EITHER WAY...QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL BE COMMON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE CAN
BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY AND TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A RETURN OF COLD AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
APPROACHING HIGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
DO FEEL THAT THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD LEAVE A QUICK
COATING ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS
TO HAPPEN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE QUITE
COLD WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN
MARYLAND TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEENS IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS SYSTEM MAY CUT TO OUR WEST UP THE APPALACHIANS...AND IF IT
DOES THERE WILL BE WARMER AIR THAT GETS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. THIS WOULD CAUSE RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THESE DETAILS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT LEAST FOR
KMRB...KBWI...KMTN...KIAD DURING THE DAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTS AROUND
40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE TERMINALS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN LATER IN THE DAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE BAY WITH RAIN SOUTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>534-
     537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...BJL/KRW
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/KRW
MARINE...BJL/KRW









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS










000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS










000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280229
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY PULLING NE FROM CAPE COD
THIS EVENING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING...THE MID ATLANTIC
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW
AS WELL AS STRANDS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. CLOUDS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW EROSION TREND...ALTHOUGH IT
LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THIS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS FALLS WILL BE DRIVEN
BY CAA IN THE GUSTY NW WINDS. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20...ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL REFREEZE.
HAVE ISSUED AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THIS ISSUE. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND TEENS IN THE SOUTH...WITH
PERHAPS SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN TOPS SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

VSBY ARE IMPROVING IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS...SO THE SNOW INTENSITY IS
LIKELY DECREASING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FURTHER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RECENT HIGHWAY
CAMERAS HAVE SHOWN SNOW COVERED ROADS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...SO
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 1 AM.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL MD IS
GRADUALLY THINNING OUT THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 20 KT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHO...ALTHOUGH SOME LULLS IN THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN NW FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PERIOD OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...BUT HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER
TIDAL POTOMAC...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR THE GUSTS TO
COMPLETELY SUBSIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ADS/LEE/HAS
MARINE...ADS/LEE/HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 272225
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVING RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1.75 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY IN MT
STORM AND 3 INCHES FARTHER WEST IN OAKLAND...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WV/MD UNTIL 1 AM.
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...LEE/HAS/GMS
MARINE...LEE/HAS/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 272225
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVING RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1.75 INCHES OF NEW SNOW TODAY IN MT
STORM AND 3 INCHES FARTHER WEST IN OAKLAND...ISSUED A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WV/MD UNTIL 1 AM.
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW LATER
TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ501.
VA...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ501-
     503-505.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEE/GMS
NEAR TERM...ADS/GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...LEE/HAS/GMS
MARINE...LEE/HAS/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 271949
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
249 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/LEE
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...GMS/HAS/LEE
MARINE...GMS/HAS/LEE








000
FXUS61 KLWX 271949
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
249 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...THEN PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND REMAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES REGION
LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSE SFC COASTAL LOW IS NOW OVER 500 MILES TO
THE NE OF OUR AREA...THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STILL EXTENDS
BACK TO THE ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALONG THIS EDGE REMAINS
A RELATIVELY LONG/NARROW BUT WEAK CORRIDOR OF LIFT...PIVOTING AND
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGION OF LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP BATCHES OF
FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...NAMELY THE BLUE RIDGE AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE - UP TO THE NRN SHEN VLY. THIS
FEATURE IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR AREA...W/ CLOUDS SHOWING
A FAIRLY STEADY BREAK-UP ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPS HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TROUBLE INCREASING TODAY...BETWEEN THE
DENSE SUN-BLOCKING LOW STRATUS AND THE DRY/GUSTY NW WINDS. A FEW
LOCALES AROUND THE AREA HAVE FOUND THEIR WAY ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK BUT W/ A NW WIND IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE...WIND CHILLS HAVE
STAYED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THIS THEME WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD COVER.
AMBIENT TEMPS WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE SLIDING WELL INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ADD TO THAT...WINDS GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE
LATE TONIGHT - WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON.

THE START OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET W/ CLEAR SKIES AND STILL
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND DAWN WILL STILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE COLD...TEMPS
WILL QUICKLY JUMP BACK INTO THE 20S AND L30S BY LATE MRNG. NOT
ENOUGH TIME IN THE DAY HOWEVER TO GET MUCH ABOVE FREEZING...ESPEC
W/ NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE TEENS AS THE REGION RADIATES OVERNIGHT UNDER CALM AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS. A QUICK TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS GOING POSITIVE THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT LAKES CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...TEMPS
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD STAY COLDER AND BARELY REACH
FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A GOOD AMT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AS
THE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START AS THE COLUMN WETBULBS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE APPALACHIAN
REGION...LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC STAYING SNOW NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE AND
RAIN/SNOW FURTHER SOUTH WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF DC INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHERN MD BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW AS THE WAVE OF PRECIP MOVES
EASTWARD.

NOTE FOR AREAS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE MASON DIXON LINE...SATURATION
SHOULD LEAD TO A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN BUT WAA ALOFT MAY LEAD TO
SLEET MIXING IN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT RANGING FROM 2-3
INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES TO 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN MARYLAND. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES ARE POSSIBLE AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE IN THE FUTURE FOR THIS AREA. ENERGY FROM AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO
FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF HAS A NEG TILT H5 TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS TAPS VERY COLD H85
TEMPS AOB -14 ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SINGLE
DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE TEENS TO THE METRO AREAS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG ON FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH LOW MIN TEMPS LIKELY PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILLS AT
LEAST WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT SEE H5 HGHT RISES AND A BIT OF MODERATING
TEMPS...AS SUNDAY HAS A DEEPENING LOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE
TN VALLEY.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER BY 6 HOURS...BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA.  WITH COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BRING RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  MONDAY WILL
SEE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH 12Z ECMWF TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
REACHING AOB -14C BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHC
OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.

PER THE EXTENDED MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM...TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH SATURDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE
THE COLDEST WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF PCPN...AND MON NIGHT/TUE HAVING THE
GREATEST CHC OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES CONTINUES TO CENTER ITSELF OVER THE NRN
VA BLUE RIDGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z. WINDS
HOWEVER WILL NOT DISSIPATE IN THE COMING HRS...POTENTIALLY
REACHING A RELATIVE PEAK LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS
AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. STILL BREEZY OUT OF THE NW ON WED BUT CLEAR.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS. RA/SN IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY REDUCE
VSBYS INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VFR.
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER BLAST OF NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATER TODAY...STAYING THE COURSE
WELL INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ON WED
AS WELL.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING AND SCA WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S 20-30 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ON THE WATERS. GALES WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...GALES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN
RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS/LEE
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...GMS/HAS/LEE
MARINE...GMS/HAS/LEE









000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 271512 AAE
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1012 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL MORE HRS OF THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGING AROUND THE NORTHEAST. ONE SIZEABLE
LINGERING SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA...FROM BUFFALO
NY TO NORFOLK VA. THIS FEATURE IS EFFECTIVELY THE MODIFIED AND
LEFTOVER UPPER ENERGY FROM THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVED OVER
THE AREA LATE LAST WEEK. THE PRECIP W/ THIS BAND HAS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
LATER THIS AFTN. AS THIS FEATURE TILTS MORE NW-SE ACROSS OUR
CWA...WINDS WILL GET DRIVEN TO THE SFC IN THE 20-30MPH
RANGE...KEEPING LOW WIND CHILLS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY FOR OUR AREA INTO WED...THE LOW WIND
CHILLS/TEMPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BARELY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK - WHERE IT DOES - AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO THE AFTN HRS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OUT WEST TO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REDUCE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND. TEMPERATURE
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH AND WEST
TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S EAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
AND COLD CONDITIONS. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH THE
MIN TEMPS DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE QUITE COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD.

LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. DETAILS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SUBVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS ON THE WATERS WILL REACH 25 TO 30 KTS AS LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX AND SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS FRIDAY...BUT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...KRW/BJL








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