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000
FXUS61 KLWX 281447
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS APPROACH AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTS OVR THE MID ATLC COURTESY OF HIGH PRES OFF
THE NC CST. A WK CD FNT STRETCHES ACROSS NWRN PA/ERN OH. MRNG IAD
SNDG MODIFIED FOR AFTN HTG SHOWS AMPLE CAPE...BUT WINDS WERE
MISSING IN SNDG. HOWEVER BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW LTL-TO-NO WIND FIELD.
MOST LKLY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR RW/TRW TO DVLP OVR THE MTNS THIS
AFTN AND SLOWLY TRACK E. SNDG PWAT WAS NOT AS HIGH AS YDA BUT IT
IS STILL PSBL THAT A SLOW MOVG CELL COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OF RAFL.

ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW PTS INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LINGERING...BUT ALSO NOW AIDED BY A PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THE PCPN TAPERS OFF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LVL FORCING.
DRY PERIOD THEN THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN.
ANOTHER SINKING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION...THOUGH WEAKENING AS
IT SETTLES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE SFC HIGH AND RIDGE
ALOFT STALLING ANY FORWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR THE AFTN AS A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER SCT ACTIVITY. THINKING THE BETTER CHC ON
FRI WILL BE FOR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING ALOFT. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FRI
NIGHT...ESP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AS STRONG RDGG SFC-H5
RESIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MDT-HIGH INSTBY VALUES/LAPSE RATES
WL BE SLIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG...WHICH MAINLY WL
ENCOMPASS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS BUT THE ERN PERIPHERY MAY INCL THE
BLURDG. WIND FIELDS LCLLY WL BE INCRSG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE MSTR PLUME WL BE COMING OFF THE
GLFMEX W/ PWAT AOA 1.5 INCHES...SO ANY STORM CUD BE A HVY RAINER AS
WELL.

THE RDG WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT NGT...AND WL CONT TO DO SO THRU
SUN. THIS WL BE ENUF TO ALLOW CDFNT TO SAG INTO CWFA. SINCE NRN
STREAM SUPPORT WL EJECT WELL INTO THE CNDN MARITIMES...ORIENTATION
OF THE FNT WL PERMIT TRAINING CELLS. THINK THE RAFL WL BECOME THE
BIGGER DEAL...BUT GFS/ECMWF STILL DEPICTING SPREAD OF SOLNS...SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS. ENUF EVIDENCE FOR LKLY POPS THO.

MDL SPREAD MANIFESTS ITSELF MORE MON-TUE. HIPRES RDGG SWD FM QUE WL
CARRY COOL AIR W/ IT...AND WUD SUPPORT MARITIME FLOW FOR CWFA.
MEANWHILE...FNTL BNDRY SHUD BE NEARBY AND PROVIDE SOME OVERRUNNING.
TEMP FCST FOR MON QUITE A BIT COOLER BECAUSE OF THIS. FURTHER...HV
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS AMS SHUD HV STABILIZED. CONFIDENCE
RATHER LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAA.

H5 HGT PTTN ACRS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK AHD FEATURES BROAD RDGG BUT
W/ A CUTOFF LOW MEADERING ACRS THE SE. AM UNSURE OF IMPACT...BUT
RANGE OF PSBLTYS RELUCTANTLY SUGGESTS POPS NEED TO STAY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

CHC FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED WITH
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO THE SCT NATURE AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS. NOT EXPECTING SVR LVLS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DROPPING VIS
TO SUB-VFR. ANY PCPN THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PCPN PSBL ON FRI.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB THRU TONIGHT. ELY TO SELY FLOW
TOMORROW 5-10KTS.

BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL SAT PM INVOF TSRA. MRB HAS BEST CHC AT
BEING AFFECTED. CDFNT WL DROP SWD SUN PROVIDING A GREATER RISK OF
TSRA AREAWIDE. SPORADIC RESTRICTIONS CONT INTO MON. IFR PSBL IF
MARINE AMS SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THRU FRI NIGHT. CHC
OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTN COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
GUSTIER WINDS.

SWLY FLOW INCREASES SAT-SAT NGT...PROVIDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SCA CONDS. A FEW STRONG TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN-
EVNG...BUT STORMS WL BE MORE NMRS SUNDAY. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WL
BE REPLACED BY LCLLY STRONG GUSTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...APS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 281447
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS APPROACH AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTS OVR THE MID ATLC COURTESY OF HIGH PRES OFF
THE NC CST. A WK CD FNT STRETCHES ACROSS NWRN PA/ERN OH. MRNG IAD
SNDG MODIFIED FOR AFTN HTG SHOWS AMPLE CAPE...BUT WINDS WERE
MISSING IN SNDG. HOWEVER BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW LTL-TO-NO WIND FIELD.
MOST LKLY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR RW/TRW TO DVLP OVR THE MTNS THIS
AFTN AND SLOWLY TRACK E. SNDG PWAT WAS NOT AS HIGH AS YDA BUT IT
IS STILL PSBL THAT A SLOW MOVG CELL COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OF RAFL.

ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW PTS INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LINGERING...BUT ALSO NOW AIDED BY A PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THE PCPN TAPERS OFF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LVL FORCING.
DRY PERIOD THEN THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN.
ANOTHER SINKING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION...THOUGH WEAKENING AS
IT SETTLES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE SFC HIGH AND RIDGE
ALOFT STALLING ANY FORWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR THE AFTN AS A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER SCT ACTIVITY. THINKING THE BETTER CHC ON
FRI WILL BE FOR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING ALOFT. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FRI
NIGHT...ESP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AS STRONG RDGG SFC-H5
RESIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MDT-HIGH INSTBY VALUES/LAPSE RATES
WL BE SLIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG...WHICH MAINLY WL
ENCOMPASS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS BUT THE ERN PERIPHERY MAY INCL THE
BLURDG. WIND FIELDS LCLLY WL BE INCRSG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE MSTR PLUME WL BE COMING OFF THE
GLFMEX W/ PWAT AOA 1.5 INCHES...SO ANY STORM CUD BE A HVY RAINER AS
WELL.

THE RDG WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT NGT...AND WL CONT TO DO SO THRU
SUN. THIS WL BE ENUF TO ALLOW CDFNT TO SAG INTO CWFA. SINCE NRN
STREAM SUPPORT WL EJECT WELL INTO THE CNDN MARITIMES...ORIENTATION
OF THE FNT WL PERMIT TRAINING CELLS. THINK THE RAFL WL BECOME THE
BIGGER DEAL...BUT GFS/ECMWF STILL DEPICTING SPREAD OF SOLNS...SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS. ENUF EVIDENCE FOR LKLY POPS THO.

MDL SPREAD MANIFESTS ITSELF MORE MON-TUE. HIPRES RDGG SWD FM QUE WL
CARRY COOL AIR W/ IT...AND WUD SUPPORT MARITIME FLOW FOR CWFA.
MEANWHILE...FNTL BNDRY SHUD BE NEARBY AND PROVIDE SOME OVERRUNNING.
TEMP FCST FOR MON QUITE A BIT COOLER BECAUSE OF THIS. FURTHER...HV
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS AMS SHUD HV STABILIZED. CONFIDENCE
RATHER LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAA.

H5 HGT PTTN ACRS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK AHD FEATURES BROAD RDGG BUT
W/ A CUTOFF LOW MEADERING ACRS THE SE. AM UNSURE OF IMPACT...BUT
RANGE OF PSBLTYS RELUCTANTLY SUGGESTS POPS NEED TO STAY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

CHC FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED WITH
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO THE SCT NATURE AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS. NOT EXPECTING SVR LVLS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DROPPING VIS
TO SUB-VFR. ANY PCPN THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PCPN PSBL ON FRI.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB THRU TONIGHT. ELY TO SELY FLOW
TOMORROW 5-10KTS.

BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL SAT PM INVOF TSRA. MRB HAS BEST CHC AT
BEING AFFECTED. CDFNT WL DROP SWD SUN PROVIDING A GREATER RISK OF
TSRA AREAWIDE. SPORADIC RESTRICTIONS CONT INTO MON. IFR PSBL IF
MARINE AMS SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THRU FRI NIGHT. CHC
OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTN COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
GUSTIER WINDS.

SWLY FLOW INCREASES SAT-SAT NGT...PROVIDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SCA CONDS. A FEW STRONG TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN-
EVNG...BUT STORMS WL BE MORE NMRS SUNDAY. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WL
BE REPLACED BY LCLLY STRONG GUSTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...APS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 281447
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1047 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS APPROACH AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

WARM/MOIST AIR CONTS OVR THE MID ATLC COURTESY OF HIGH PRES OFF
THE NC CST. A WK CD FNT STRETCHES ACROSS NWRN PA/ERN OH. MRNG IAD
SNDG MODIFIED FOR AFTN HTG SHOWS AMPLE CAPE...BUT WINDS WERE
MISSING IN SNDG. HOWEVER BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW LTL-TO-NO WIND FIELD.
MOST LKLY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR RW/TRW TO DVLP OVR THE MTNS THIS
AFTN AND SLOWLY TRACK E. SNDG PWAT WAS NOT AS HIGH AS YDA BUT IT
IS STILL PSBL THAT A SLOW MOVG CELL COULD PRODUCE AN INCH OF RAFL.

ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEW PTS INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LINGERING...BUT ALSO NOW AIDED BY A PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THE PCPN TAPERS OFF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LVL FORCING.
DRY PERIOD THEN THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN.
ANOTHER SINKING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION...THOUGH WEAKENING AS
IT SETTLES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE SFC HIGH AND RIDGE
ALOFT STALLING ANY FORWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR THE AFTN AS A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER SCT ACTIVITY. THINKING THE BETTER CHC ON
FRI WILL BE FOR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING ALOFT. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FRI
NIGHT...ESP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AS STRONG RDGG SFC-H5
RESIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MDT-HIGH INSTBY VALUES/LAPSE RATES
WL BE SLIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG...WHICH MAINLY WL
ENCOMPASS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS BUT THE ERN PERIPHERY MAY INCL THE
BLURDG. WIND FIELDS LCLLY WL BE INCRSG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE MSTR PLUME WL BE COMING OFF THE
GLFMEX W/ PWAT AOA 1.5 INCHES...SO ANY STORM CUD BE A HVY RAINER AS
WELL.

THE RDG WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT NGT...AND WL CONT TO DO SO THRU
SUN. THIS WL BE ENUF TO ALLOW CDFNT TO SAG INTO CWFA. SINCE NRN
STREAM SUPPORT WL EJECT WELL INTO THE CNDN MARITIMES...ORIENTATION
OF THE FNT WL PERMIT TRAINING CELLS. THINK THE RAFL WL BECOME THE
BIGGER DEAL...BUT GFS/ECMWF STILL DEPICTING SPREAD OF SOLNS...SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS. ENUF EVIDENCE FOR LKLY POPS THO.

MDL SPREAD MANIFESTS ITSELF MORE MON-TUE. HIPRES RDGG SWD FM QUE WL
CARRY COOL AIR W/ IT...AND WUD SUPPORT MARITIME FLOW FOR CWFA.
MEANWHILE...FNTL BNDRY SHUD BE NEARBY AND PROVIDE SOME OVERRUNNING.
TEMP FCST FOR MON QUITE A BIT COOLER BECAUSE OF THIS. FURTHER...HV
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS AMS SHUD HV STABILIZED. CONFIDENCE
RATHER LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAA.

H5 HGT PTTN ACRS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK AHD FEATURES BROAD RDGG BUT
W/ A CUTOFF LOW MEADERING ACRS THE SE. AM UNSURE OF IMPACT...BUT
RANGE OF PSBLTYS RELUCTANTLY SUGGESTS POPS NEED TO STAY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.

CHC FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED WITH
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO THE SCT NATURE AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS. NOT EXPECTING SVR LVLS...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL DROPPING VIS
TO SUB-VFR. ANY PCPN THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PCPN PSBL ON FRI.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB THRU TONIGHT. ELY TO SELY FLOW
TOMORROW 5-10KTS.

BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL SAT PM INVOF TSRA. MRB HAS BEST CHC AT
BEING AFFECTED. CDFNT WL DROP SWD SUN PROVIDING A GREATER RISK OF
TSRA AREAWIDE. SPORADIC RESTRICTIONS CONT INTO MON. IFR PSBL IF
MARINE AMS SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THRU FRI NIGHT. CHC
OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTN COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
GUSTIER WINDS.

SWLY FLOW INCREASES SAT-SAT NGT...PROVIDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SCA CONDS. A FEW STRONG TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN-
EVNG...BUT STORMS WL BE MORE NMRS SUNDAY. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WL
BE REPLACED BY LCLLY STRONG GUSTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...APS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 280828
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
428 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS APPROACH AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS
UP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECTING LESS OF A SVR
THREAT TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE COMBINATION
OF PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE AND A BUILDING RIDGE LIMIT
ANY FORWARD MOTION. THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS THE SFC TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY WITH UPPER LVL FORCING
LACKING. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS INTO
THE 60S WILL RESULT IN DECENT INSTABILITY. SHEAR A BIT ON THE
STRONGER SIDE TODAY...BUT STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE...GENERALLY 20
KTS...SO OVERALL WHILE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ANY SVR THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL. PWATS NOT QUITE AS HIGH TODAY BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH
SO THAT ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. ALSO
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WITH A LINE FORMATION...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TODAY TO
BE MORE SCT IN NATURE...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH END CHC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE BETTER CHC IS OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INITIALLY TODAY...WITH THE PCPN PUSHING SOUTH BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LINGERING...BUT ALSO NOW AIDED BY A PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THE PCPN TAPERS OFF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LVL FORCING.
DRY PERIOD THEN THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN.
ANOTHER SINKING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION...THOUGH WEAKENING AS
IT SETTLES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE SFC HIGH AND RIDGE
ALOFT STALLING ANY FORWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR THE AFTN AS A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER SCT ACTIVITY. THINKING THE BETTER CHC ON
FRI WILL BE FOR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING ALOFT. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FRI
NIGHT...ESP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AS STRONG RDGG SFC-H5
RESIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MDT-HIGH INSTBY VALUES/LAPSE RATES
WL BE SLIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG...WHICH MAINLY WL
ENCOMPASS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS BUT THE ERN PERIPHERY MAY INCL THE
BLURDG. WIND FIELDS LCLLY WL BE INCRSG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE MSTR PLUME WL BE COMING OFF THE
GLFMEX W/ PWAT AOA 1.5 INCHES...SO ANY STORM CUD BE A HVY RAINER AS
WELL.

THE RDG WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT NGT...AND WL CONT TO DO SO THRU
SUN. THIS WL BE ENUF TO ALLOW CDFNT TO SAG INTO CWFA. SINCE NRN
STREAM SUPPORT WL EJECT WELL INTO THE CNDN MARITIMES...ORIENTATION
OF THE FNT WL PERMIT TRAINING CELLS. THINK THE RAFL WL BECOME THE
BIGGER DEAL...BUT GFS/ECMWF STILL DEPICTING SPREAD OF SOLNS...SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS. ENUF EVIDENCE FOR LKLY POPS THO.

MDL SPREAD MANIFESTS ITSELF MORE MON-TUE. HIPRES RDGG SWD FM QUE WL
CARRY COOL AIR W/ IT...AND WUD SUPPORT MARITIME FLOW FOR CWFA.
MEANWHILE...FNTL BNDRY SHUD BE NEARBY AND PROVIDE SOME OVERRUNNING.
TEMP FCST FOR MON QUITE A BIT COOLER BECAUSE OF THIS. FURTHER...HV
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS AMS SHUD HV STABILIZED. CONFIDENCE
RATHER LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAA.

H5 HGT PTTN ACRS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK AHD FEATURES BROAD RDGG BUT
W/ A CUTOFF LOW MEADERING ACRS THE SE. AM UNSURE OF IMPACT...BUT
RANGE OF PSBLTYS RELUCTANTLY SUGGESTS POPS NEED TO STAY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PERIOD WITH SCT CU FORMING TODAY. PATCHY FOG PSBL EARLY THIS
MORNING COULD BRING VIS DOWN 3-4SM...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS
FOR AS SKY COVERAGE IS INCRSG. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
DISSIPATE SOON AFTR DAYBREAK.

CHC FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED WITH
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO THE SCT NATURE AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS. SOME OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE
MULTIPLE STORMS COME THRU DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING SVR
LVLS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
DROPPING VIS TO SUB-VFR. ANY PCPN THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN PSBL ON FRI.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB THRU TONIGHT. ELY TO SELY FLOW
TOMORROW 5-10KTS.

BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL SAT PM INVOF TSRA. MRB HAS BEST CHC AT
BEING AFFECTED. CDFNT WL DROP SWD SUN PROVIDING A GREATER RISK OF
TSRA AREAWIDE. SPORADIC RESTRICTIONS CONT INTO MON. IFR PSBL IF
MARINE AMS SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE LAST TWO ZONES OF THE SCA WITH WINDS GENERALLY
15 KTS OR LESS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS
THRU FRI NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTN
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTIER WINDS.

SWLY FLOW INCREASES SAT-SAT NGT...PROVIDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SCA CONDS. A FEW STRONG TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN-
EVNG...BUT STORMS WL BE MORE NMRS SUNDAY. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WL
BE REPLACED BY LCLLY STRONG GUSTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280828
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
428 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS APPROACH AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS
UP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECTING LESS OF A SVR
THREAT TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE COMBINATION
OF PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE AND A BUILDING RIDGE LIMIT
ANY FORWARD MOTION. THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS THE SFC TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY WITH UPPER LVL FORCING
LACKING. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS INTO
THE 60S WILL RESULT IN DECENT INSTABILITY. SHEAR A BIT ON THE
STRONGER SIDE TODAY...BUT STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE...GENERALLY 20
KTS...SO OVERALL WHILE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ANY SVR THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL. PWATS NOT QUITE AS HIGH TODAY BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH
SO THAT ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. ALSO
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WITH A LINE FORMATION...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TODAY TO
BE MORE SCT IN NATURE...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH END CHC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE BETTER CHC IS OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INITIALLY TODAY...WITH THE PCPN PUSHING SOUTH BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LINGERING...BUT ALSO NOW AIDED BY A PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THE PCPN TAPERS OFF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LVL FORCING.
DRY PERIOD THEN THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN.
ANOTHER SINKING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION...THOUGH WEAKENING AS
IT SETTLES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE SFC HIGH AND RIDGE
ALOFT STALLING ANY FORWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR THE AFTN AS A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER SCT ACTIVITY. THINKING THE BETTER CHC ON
FRI WILL BE FOR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING ALOFT. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FRI
NIGHT...ESP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AS STRONG RDGG SFC-H5
RESIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MDT-HIGH INSTBY VALUES/LAPSE RATES
WL BE SLIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG...WHICH MAINLY WL
ENCOMPASS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS BUT THE ERN PERIPHERY MAY INCL THE
BLURDG. WIND FIELDS LCLLY WL BE INCRSG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE MSTR PLUME WL BE COMING OFF THE
GLFMEX W/ PWAT AOA 1.5 INCHES...SO ANY STORM CUD BE A HVY RAINER AS
WELL.

THE RDG WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT NGT...AND WL CONT TO DO SO THRU
SUN. THIS WL BE ENUF TO ALLOW CDFNT TO SAG INTO CWFA. SINCE NRN
STREAM SUPPORT WL EJECT WELL INTO THE CNDN MARITIMES...ORIENTATION
OF THE FNT WL PERMIT TRAINING CELLS. THINK THE RAFL WL BECOME THE
BIGGER DEAL...BUT GFS/ECMWF STILL DEPICTING SPREAD OF SOLNS...SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS. ENUF EVIDENCE FOR LKLY POPS THO.

MDL SPREAD MANIFESTS ITSELF MORE MON-TUE. HIPRES RDGG SWD FM QUE WL
CARRY COOL AIR W/ IT...AND WUD SUPPORT MARITIME FLOW FOR CWFA.
MEANWHILE...FNTL BNDRY SHUD BE NEARBY AND PROVIDE SOME OVERRUNNING.
TEMP FCST FOR MON QUITE A BIT COOLER BECAUSE OF THIS. FURTHER...HV
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS AMS SHUD HV STABILIZED. CONFIDENCE
RATHER LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAA.

H5 HGT PTTN ACRS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK AHD FEATURES BROAD RDGG BUT
W/ A CUTOFF LOW MEADERING ACRS THE SE. AM UNSURE OF IMPACT...BUT
RANGE OF PSBLTYS RELUCTANTLY SUGGESTS POPS NEED TO STAY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PERIOD WITH SCT CU FORMING TODAY. PATCHY FOG PSBL EARLY THIS
MORNING COULD BRING VIS DOWN 3-4SM...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS
FOR AS SKY COVERAGE IS INCRSG. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
DISSIPATE SOON AFTR DAYBREAK.

CHC FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED WITH
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO THE SCT NATURE AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS. SOME OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE
MULTIPLE STORMS COME THRU DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING SVR
LVLS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
DROPPING VIS TO SUB-VFR. ANY PCPN THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN PSBL ON FRI.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB THRU TONIGHT. ELY TO SELY FLOW
TOMORROW 5-10KTS.

BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL SAT PM INVOF TSRA. MRB HAS BEST CHC AT
BEING AFFECTED. CDFNT WL DROP SWD SUN PROVIDING A GREATER RISK OF
TSRA AREAWIDE. SPORADIC RESTRICTIONS CONT INTO MON. IFR PSBL IF
MARINE AMS SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE LAST TWO ZONES OF THE SCA WITH WINDS GENERALLY
15 KTS OR LESS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS
THRU FRI NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTN
COULD BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTIER WINDS.

SWLY FLOW INCREASES SAT-SAT NGT...PROVIDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SCA CONDS. A FEW STRONG TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN-
EVNG...BUT STORMS WL BE MORE NMRS SUNDAY. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WL
BE REPLACED BY LCLLY STRONG GUSTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 280741
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
341 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS APPROACH AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS
UP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECTING LESS OF A SVR
THREAT TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE COMBINATION
OF PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE AND A BUILDING RIDGE LIMIT
ANY FORWARD MOTION. THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS THE SFC TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY WITH UPPER LVL FORCING
LACKING. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS INTO
THE 60S WILL RESULT IN DECENT INSTABILITY. SHEAR A BIT ON THE
STRONGER SIDE TODAY...BUT STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE...GENERALLY 20
KTS...SO OVERALL WHILE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ANY SVR THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL. PWATS NOT QUITE AS HIGH TODAY BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH
SO THAT ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. ALSO
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WITH A LINE FORMATION...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TODAY TO
BE MORE SCT IN NATURE...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH END CHC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE BETTER CHC IS OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INITIALLY TODAY...WITH THE PCPN PUSHING SOUTH BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LINGERING...BUT ALSO NOW AIDED BY A PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THE PCPN TAPERS OFF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LVL FORCING.
DRY PERIOD THEN THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN.
ANOTHER SINKING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION...THOUGH WEAKENING AS
IT SETTLES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE SFC HIGH AND RIDGE
ALOFT STALLING ANY FORWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR THE AFTN AS A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER SCT ACTIVITY. THINKING THE BETTER CHC ON
FRI WILL BE FOR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING ALOFT. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FRI
NIGHT...ESP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AS STRONG RDGG SFC-H5
RESIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MDT-HIGH INSTBY VALUES/LAPSE RATES
WL BE SLIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG...WHICH MAINLY WL
ENCOMPASS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS BUT THE ERN PERIPHERY MAY INCL THE
BLURDG. WIND FIELDS LCLLY WL BE INCRSG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE MSTR PLUME WL BE COMING OFF THE
GLFMEX W/ PWAT AOA 1.5 INCHES...SO ANY STORM CUD BE A HVY RAINER AS
WELL.

THE RDG WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT NGT...AND WL CONT TO DO SO THRU
SUN. THIS WL BE ENUF TO ALLOW CDFNT TO SAG INTO CWFA. SINCE NRN
STREAM SUPPORT WL EJECT WELL INTO THE CNDN MARITIMES...ORIENTATION
OF THE FNT WL PERMIT TRAINING CELLS. THINK THE RAFL WL BECOME THE
BIGGER DEAL...BUT GFS/ECMWF STILL DEPICTING SPREAD OF SOLNS...SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS. ENUF EVIDENCE FOR LKLY POPS THO.

MDL SPREAD MANIFESTS ITSELF MORE MON-TUE. HIPRES RDGG SWD FM QUE WL
CARRY COOL AIR W/ IT...AND WUD SUPPORT MARITIME FLOW FOR CWFA.
MEANWHILE...FNTL BNDRY SHUD BE NEARBY AND PROVIDE SOME OVERRUNNING.
TEMP FCST FOR MON QUITE A BIT COOLER BECAUSE OF THIS. FURTHER...HV
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS AMS SHUD HV STABILIZED. CONFIDENCE
RATHER LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAA.

H5 HGT PTTN ACRS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK AHD FEATURES BROAD RDGG BUT
W/ A CUTOFF LOW MEADERING ACRS THE SE. AM UNSURE OF IMPACT...BUT
RANGE OF PSBLTYS RELUCTANTLY SUGGESTS POPS NEED TO STAY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PERIOD WITH SCT CU FORMING TODAY. PATCHY FOG PSBL EARLY THIS
MORNING COULD BRING VIS DOWN 3-4SM...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS
FOR AS SKY COVERAGE IS INCRSG. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
DISSIPATE SOON AFTR DAYBREAK.

CHC FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED WITH
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO THE SCT NATURE AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS. SOME OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE
MULTIPLE STORMS COME THRU DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING SVR
LVLS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
DROPPING VIS TO SUB-VFR. ANY PCPN THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN PSBL ON FRI.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB THRU TONIGHT. ELY TO SELY FLOW
TOMORROW 5-10KTS.

BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL SAT PM INVOF TSRA. MRB HAS BEST CHC AT
BEING AFFECTED. CDFNT WL DROP SWD SUN PROVIDING A GREATER RISK OF
TSRA AREAWIDE. SPORADIC RESTRICTIONS CONT INTO MON. IFR PSBL IF
MARINE AMS SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE THRU
10Z. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THRU FRI
NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTN COULD BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTIER WINDS.

SWLY FLOW INCREASES SAT-SAT NGT...PROVIDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SCA CONDS. A FEW STRONG TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN-
EVNG...BUT STORMS WL BE MORE NMRS SUNDAY. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WL
BE REPLACED BY LCLLY STRONG GUSTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280741
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
341 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS APPROACH AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS
UP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECTING LESS OF A SVR
THREAT TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE COMBINATION
OF PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE AND A BUILDING RIDGE LIMIT
ANY FORWARD MOTION. THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS THE SFC TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY WITH UPPER LVL FORCING
LACKING. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS INTO
THE 60S WILL RESULT IN DECENT INSTABILITY. SHEAR A BIT ON THE
STRONGER SIDE TODAY...BUT STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE...GENERALLY 20
KTS...SO OVERALL WHILE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ANY SVR THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL. PWATS NOT QUITE AS HIGH TODAY BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH
SO THAT ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. ALSO
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WITH A LINE FORMATION...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TODAY TO
BE MORE SCT IN NATURE...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH END CHC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE BETTER CHC IS OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INITIALLY TODAY...WITH THE PCPN PUSHING SOUTH BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LINGERING...BUT ALSO NOW AIDED BY A PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THE PCPN TAPERS OFF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LVL FORCING.
DRY PERIOD THEN THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN.
ANOTHER SINKING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION...THOUGH WEAKENING AS
IT SETTLES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE SFC HIGH AND RIDGE
ALOFT STALLING ANY FORWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR THE AFTN AS A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER SCT ACTIVITY. THINKING THE BETTER CHC ON
FRI WILL BE FOR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING ALOFT. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FRI
NIGHT...ESP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AS STRONG RDGG SFC-H5
RESIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MDT-HIGH INSTBY VALUES/LAPSE RATES
WL BE SLIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG...WHICH MAINLY WL
ENCOMPASS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS BUT THE ERN PERIPHERY MAY INCL THE
BLURDG. WIND FIELDS LCLLY WL BE INCRSG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE MSTR PLUME WL BE COMING OFF THE
GLFMEX W/ PWAT AOA 1.5 INCHES...SO ANY STORM CUD BE A HVY RAINER AS
WELL.

THE RDG WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT NGT...AND WL CONT TO DO SO THRU
SUN. THIS WL BE ENUF TO ALLOW CDFNT TO SAG INTO CWFA. SINCE NRN
STREAM SUPPORT WL EJECT WELL INTO THE CNDN MARITIMES...ORIENTATION
OF THE FNT WL PERMIT TRAINING CELLS. THINK THE RAFL WL BECOME THE
BIGGER DEAL...BUT GFS/ECMWF STILL DEPICTING SPREAD OF SOLNS...SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS. ENUF EVIDENCE FOR LKLY POPS THO.

MDL SPREAD MANIFESTS ITSELF MORE MON-TUE. HIPRES RDGG SWD FM QUE WL
CARRY COOL AIR W/ IT...AND WUD SUPPORT MARITIME FLOW FOR CWFA.
MEANWHILE...FNTL BNDRY SHUD BE NEARBY AND PROVIDE SOME OVERRUNNING.
TEMP FCST FOR MON QUITE A BIT COOLER BECAUSE OF THIS. FURTHER...HV
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS AMS SHUD HV STABILIZED. CONFIDENCE
RATHER LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAA.

H5 HGT PTTN ACRS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK AHD FEATURES BROAD RDGG BUT
W/ A CUTOFF LOW MEADERING ACRS THE SE. AM UNSURE OF IMPACT...BUT
RANGE OF PSBLTYS RELUCTANTLY SUGGESTS POPS NEED TO STAY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PERIOD WITH SCT CU FORMING TODAY. PATCHY FOG PSBL EARLY THIS
MORNING COULD BRING VIS DOWN 3-4SM...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS
FOR AS SKY COVERAGE IS INCRSG. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
DISSIPATE SOON AFTR DAYBREAK.

CHC FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED WITH
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO THE SCT NATURE AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS. SOME OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE
MULTIPLE STORMS COME THRU DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING SVR
LVLS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
DROPPING VIS TO SUB-VFR. ANY PCPN THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN PSBL ON FRI.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB THRU TONIGHT. ELY TO SELY FLOW
TOMORROW 5-10KTS.

BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL SAT PM INVOF TSRA. MRB HAS BEST CHC AT
BEING AFFECTED. CDFNT WL DROP SWD SUN PROVIDING A GREATER RISK OF
TSRA AREAWIDE. SPORADIC RESTRICTIONS CONT INTO MON. IFR PSBL IF
MARINE AMS SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE THRU
10Z. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THRU FRI
NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTN COULD BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTIER WINDS.

SWLY FLOW INCREASES SAT-SAT NGT...PROVIDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SCA CONDS. A FEW STRONG TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN-
EVNG...BUT STORMS WL BE MORE NMRS SUNDAY. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WL
BE REPLACED BY LCLLY STRONG GUSTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280741
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
341 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS APPROACH AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS
UP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...OVERALL EXPECTING LESS OF A SVR
THREAT TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
EXPECTING THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE COMBINATION
OF PERSISTING HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE AND A BUILDING RIDGE LIMIT
ANY FORWARD MOTION. THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
DAY...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS THE SFC TRIGGERING MECHANISM TODAY WITH UPPER LVL FORCING
LACKING. ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS INTO
THE 60S WILL RESULT IN DECENT INSTABILITY. SHEAR A BIT ON THE
STRONGER SIDE TODAY...BUT STILL ON THE WEAKER SIDE...GENERALLY 20
KTS...SO OVERALL WHILE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ANY SVR THREAT
WILL BE MINIMAL. PWATS NOT QUITE AS HIGH TODAY BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH
SO THAT ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN. ALSO
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WITH A LINE FORMATION...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TODAY TO
BE MORE SCT IN NATURE...SO HAVE CAPPED POPS AT HIGH END CHC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE EXACTLY THE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THE BETTER CHC IS OVER NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INITIALLY TODAY...WITH THE PCPN PUSHING SOUTH BY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LINGERING...BUT ALSO NOW AIDED BY A PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THE PCPN TAPERS OFF BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LVL FORCING.
DRY PERIOD THEN THRU DAYBREAK BEFORE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN.
ANOTHER SINKING COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION...THOUGH WEAKENING AS
IT SETTLES ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WITH THE SFC HIGH AND RIDGE
ALOFT STALLING ANY FORWARD PROGRESSION. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN INCREASED TO CHC FOR THE AFTN AS A PASSING
SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER SCT ACTIVITY. THINKING THE BETTER CHC ON
FRI WILL BE FOR WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FORCING ALOFT. LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY FRI
NIGHT...ESP BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SAT AS STRONG RDGG SFC-H5
RESIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MDT-HIGH INSTBY VALUES/LAPSE RATES
WL BE SLIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RDG...WHICH MAINLY WL
ENCOMPASS THE PTMC HIGHLANDS BUT THE ERN PERIPHERY MAY INCL THE
BLURDG. WIND FIELDS LCLLY WL BE INCRSG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS. IN ADDITION...THE MSTR PLUME WL BE COMING OFF THE
GLFMEX W/ PWAT AOA 1.5 INCHES...SO ANY STORM CUD BE A HVY RAINER AS
WELL.

THE RDG WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT NGT...AND WL CONT TO DO SO THRU
SUN. THIS WL BE ENUF TO ALLOW CDFNT TO SAG INTO CWFA. SINCE NRN
STREAM SUPPORT WL EJECT WELL INTO THE CNDN MARITIMES...ORIENTATION
OF THE FNT WL PERMIT TRAINING CELLS. THINK THE RAFL WL BECOME THE
BIGGER DEAL...BUT GFS/ECMWF STILL DEPICTING SPREAD OF SOLNS...SO
CONFIDENCE LOW ON SPECIFICS. ENUF EVIDENCE FOR LKLY POPS THO.

MDL SPREAD MANIFESTS ITSELF MORE MON-TUE. HIPRES RDGG SWD FM QUE WL
CARRY COOL AIR W/ IT...AND WUD SUPPORT MARITIME FLOW FOR CWFA.
MEANWHILE...FNTL BNDRY SHUD BE NEARBY AND PROVIDE SOME OVERRUNNING.
TEMP FCST FOR MON QUITE A BIT COOLER BECAUSE OF THIS. FURTHER...HV
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS AMS SHUD HV STABILIZED. CONFIDENCE
RATHER LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAA.

H5 HGT PTTN ACRS THE CONUS FOR THE WEEK AHD FEATURES BROAD RDGG BUT
W/ A CUTOFF LOW MEADERING ACRS THE SE. AM UNSURE OF IMPACT...BUT
RANGE OF PSBLTYS RELUCTANTLY SUGGESTS POPS NEED TO STAY IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. MID-HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED THRU
THE PERIOD WITH SCT CU FORMING TODAY. PATCHY FOG PSBL EARLY THIS
MORNING COULD BRING VIS DOWN 3-4SM...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS
FOR AS SKY COVERAGE IS INCRSG. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL
DISSIPATE SOON AFTR DAYBREAK.

CHC FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT ALL TAF SITES. HAVE INCLUDED WITH
VCSH FOR NOW DUE TO THE SCT NATURE AND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS. SOME OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE
MULTIPLE STORMS COME THRU DURING THE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING SVR
LVLS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
DROPPING VIS TO SUB-VFR. ANY PCPN THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN PSBL ON FRI.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VRB THRU TONIGHT. ELY TO SELY FLOW
TOMORROW 5-10KTS.

BRIEF FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL SAT PM INVOF TSRA. MRB HAS BEST CHC AT
BEING AFFECTED. CDFNT WL DROP SWD SUN PROVIDING A GREATER RISK OF
TSRA AREAWIDE. SPORADIC RESTRICTIONS CONT INTO MON. IFR PSBL IF
MARINE AMS SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE THRU
10Z. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THRU FRI
NIGHT. CHC OF TSTMS THIS AFTN AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTN COULD BRING
A PERIOD OF GUSTIER WINDS.

SWLY FLOW INCREASES SAT-SAT NGT...PROVIDING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND
OF SCA CONDS. A FEW STRONG TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN-
EVNG...BUT STORMS WL BE MORE NMRS SUNDAY. STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WL
BE REPLACED BY LCLLY STRONG GUSTS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 280129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IT WAS A MARGINAL SEVERE CASE TODAY WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. OUTFLOW FROM EARLY ACTIVITY OVERSWEPT
THE AREA AND LIMITED THE SEVERE THREAT...HENCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS BACK
UP TO MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. THIS LEVEL OF MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY SHOULD ENABLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. A
BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE DELMARVA SOUTH TO SERN VA...SO THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN IS OVER SRN MD WATERS. WITH DECENT
CLEARING AND SOME PLACES DECOUPLING...EXPECT PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEYS AND IN THE PIEDMONT.

MIN TEMPS HIGH TONIGHT...LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AS A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE A LOT OF SOUTHERN PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THESE
FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ONCE AGAIN FORM...BULK SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO SEVERE WX
THREAT IS MINIMAL. HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE HIGH THOUGH SO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. HIGHS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. FRONT
BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND
70 URBAN CENTERS.

BY FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILD BACK TO THE
NORTH...AS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SFC FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.
WITHOUT A DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
BE MORE DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN WED/THU...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS A
TOUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY...BUT THE OVERALL LOOK AND FEEL OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL STILL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD BUT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STRENGTH
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAY REDUCE THAT
THREAT EVEN FURTHER. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AND IFR VSBYS/FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD ENABLE LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES NEAR/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL LOWER COVERAGE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN BR EARLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.

LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT STILL OCCURRING SOUTH OF SANDY
POINT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER
SRN MD WATERS GUSTING LONGEST. SCA REFLECTS THIS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW THURSDAY WITH A BAY BREEZE EXPECTED. UP TO SCATTERED
GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VRB WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OFFSHORE. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY DUE TO
CHANNELING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OVERALL
COVERAGE APPEARS FAIRLY ISOLATED.

WIDESPREAD MARINE HAZARDS ARE UNLIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSE LOCALIZED THREATS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ532-533-
     537-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/HAS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 280129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
IT WAS A MARGINAL SEVERE CASE TODAY WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. OUTFLOW FROM EARLY ACTIVITY OVERSWEPT
THE AREA AND LIMITED THE SEVERE THREAT...HENCE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS BACK
UP TO MID 60S TO AROUND 70F. THIS LEVEL OF MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY SHOULD ENABLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. A
BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE DELMARVA SOUTH TO SERN VA...SO THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN IS OVER SRN MD WATERS. WITH DECENT
CLEARING AND SOME PLACES DECOUPLING...EXPECT PATCHY RADIATIONAL
FOG TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY IN VALLEYS AND IN THE PIEDMONT.

MIN TEMPS HIGH TONIGHT...LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AS A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE A LOT OF SOUTHERN PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THESE
FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ONCE AGAIN FORM...BULK SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO SEVERE WX
THREAT IS MINIMAL. HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE HIGH THOUGH SO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. HIGHS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. FRONT
BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND
70 URBAN CENTERS.

BY FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILD BACK TO THE
NORTH...AS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SFC FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.
WITHOUT A DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
BE MORE DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN WED/THU...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS A
TOUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY...BUT THE OVERALL LOOK AND FEEL OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL STILL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD BUT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STRENGTH
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAY REDUCE THAT
THREAT EVEN FURTHER. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AND IFR VSBYS/FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD ENABLE LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES NEAR/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL LOWER COVERAGE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN BR EARLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.

LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT STILL OCCURRING SOUTH OF SANDY
POINT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER
SRN MD WATERS GUSTING LONGEST. SCA REFLECTS THIS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW THURSDAY WITH A BAY BREEZE EXPECTED. UP TO SCATTERED
GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT/VRB WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OFFSHORE. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY DUE TO
CHANNELING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OVERALL
COVERAGE APPEARS FAIRLY ISOLATED.

WIDESPREAD MARINE HAZARDS ARE UNLIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSE LOCALIZED THREATS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ532-533-
     537-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/ADS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/ADS/HAS/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 271937
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED OVER THE HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. SURFACE
HEATING AND MARGINAL SHEAR HAVE LED TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN METRO
SUBURBS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO A UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS REGION INCLUDING THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS AN AREA OF CONCERN DUE TO
THE HIGHER DEWPTS AND MAXIMUM OF DOWNWARD CAPE AS EVIDENT ON THE
MESOANALYSIS. THIS POSES THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. REPORTS OF
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED IN NRN MD. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING
OR IF OUTSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN VA AND MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN VICINITY OF A LEE
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE N-NE AND MAY IMPACT THE
PIEDMONT...SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT RESULTING IN HUMID
CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AS A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE A LOT OF SOUTHERN PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THESE
FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ONCE AGAIN FORM...BULK SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO SEVERE WX
THREAT IS MINIMAL. HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE HIGH THOUGH SO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. HIGHS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. FRONT
BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND
70 URBAN CENTERS.

BY FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILD BACK TO THE
NORTH...AS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SFC FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.
WITHOUT A DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
BE MORE DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN WED/THU...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS A
TOUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY...BUT THE OVERALL LOOK AND FEEL OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL STILL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD BUT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STRENGTH
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAY REDUCE THAT
THREAT EVEN FURTHER. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TSRA AND SHRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN ACTIVITY. SOME TSRA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS. TEMPO
ADDED FOR IAD BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADDED FOR BWI/MTN/DCA SHORTLY.
HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES NEAR/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL LOWER COVERAGE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN BR EARLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.

LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. SMW`S
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. S WINDS CONTINUE ON
THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SCA WILL END OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT/VRB WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OFFSHORE. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY DUE TO
CHANNELING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OVERALL
COVERAGE APPEARS FAIRLY ISOLATED.

WIDESPREAD MARINE HAZARDS ARE UNLIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSE LOCALIZED THREATS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/HAS/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 271937
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
337 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED OVER THE HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. SURFACE
HEATING AND MARGINAL SHEAR HAVE LED TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN METRO
SUBURBS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO A UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS REGION INCLUDING THE I-95 CORRIDOR IS AN AREA OF CONCERN DUE TO
THE HIGHER DEWPTS AND MAXIMUM OF DOWNWARD CAPE AS EVIDENT ON THE
MESOANALYSIS. THIS POSES THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. REPORTS OF
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED IN NRN MD. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING
OR IF OUTSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECOND AREA OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHERN VA AND MOVE
NORTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN VICINITY OF A LEE
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE N-NE AND MAY IMPACT THE
PIEDMONT...SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...NO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER NIGHT RESULTING IN HUMID
CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AS A
SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE A LOT OF SOUTHERN PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THESE
FEATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO ONCE AGAIN FORM...BULK SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE...SO SEVERE WX
THREAT IS MINIMAL. HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE HIGH THOUGH SO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. HIGHS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. FRONT
BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND
70 URBAN CENTERS.

BY FRIDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES BUILD BACK TO THE
NORTH...AS WHAT/S LEFT OF THE SFC FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.
WITHOUT A DEFINED FORCING MECHANISM...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
BE MORE DIURNALLY AND TERRAIN DRIVEN. THUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER
THAN WED/THU...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DAYTIME HIGHS A
TOUCH LOWER ON FRIDAY...BUT THE OVERALL LOOK AND FEEL OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...WARM AND MUGGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL STILL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD BUT COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE STRENGTH
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MAY REDUCE THAT
THREAT EVEN FURTHER. IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TSRA AND SHRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN ACTIVITY. SOME TSRA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL REDUCE VSBYS. TEMPO
ADDED FOR IAD BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADDED FOR BWI/MTN/DCA SHORTLY.
HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES NEAR/WEST OF BLUE RIDGE. OVERALL LOWER COVERAGE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN BR EARLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT.

LOCALIZED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. SMW`S
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. S WINDS CONTINUE ON
THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SCA WILL END OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT/VRB WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OFFSHORE. GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE BAY DUE TO
CHANNELING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...OVERALL
COVERAGE APPEARS FAIRLY ISOLATED.

WIDESPREAD MARINE HAZARDS ARE UNLIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSE LOCALIZED THREATS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/HAS/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 271417
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN A HUMID AIRMASS THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S-SW TO N-NE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE. AS THE WAVE OF SHOWERS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT TAPS INTO UNSTABLE AIR. THE WIND FIELD
IS GREATER NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO PA. HI RES GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE OF SHOWERS THAT IS
SLOWLY HEADING INTO THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AFTER 2PM. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

INCRSG COVERAGE IN THE CONVECTION BY MIDDAY. THE QUESTION THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAD BEEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMO WOULD BECOME THIS AFTN...AND
AS A RESULT WHAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS.
WHILE SHEAR HAS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIGGER
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER STORMS FOR TODAY. AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALIGNS ALONG THE LEE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH
THE THINKING THAT A THINNER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...LEADING TO BETTER DIURNAL HEATING. THE NAM...WITH
THE TYPICAL HIGHER DEW PTS...HAS THE MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES...ABV
2000 J/KG FOR INSTANCE AT DCA. BUT EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO EVEN BEING CONSERVATIVE THERE IS A GOOD AMT
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY THINKING THAT WITH THE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FLOW...WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL MD
MIDDAY UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. AS THE LINE PUSHES
EAST...EXPECTING IT TO HIT THE LEE TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND THOUGH LACKING ON THE SHEAR...THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONGER TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SVR STORMS. WITH
THE LACK OF SHEAR...EXPECTING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF SFC BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BCMG DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE MAIN METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THURS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC
HIGH AND UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL WORK TO STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WITH IT BCMG NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURS
NIGHT. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMO BECOMES DECENTLY UNSTABLE YET
AGAIN WITH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS PERSISTING
IN THE 60S. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WONT BE NEAR THE LVLS AS
TODAY...EXPECTING A BUT MORE SHEAR OVER THE AREA TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND WITH
A LACKING OF UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING SVR OR EVEN STRONGER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THURS NIGHT...ALONG WITH ANY
DAYTIME RESULTING INSTABILITY...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE
NIGHT EVERYWHERE...BUT THESE COULD VERY WELL BE OVERDONE...WITH THE
PCPN TAPERING OFF SOONER. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...STILL IN THE 60S THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC TROFFING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI MRNG. ANY THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY WUD HV WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND MID LVL HGTS START TO
RISE ONCE AGN. THE BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SYNOP PTTN WL BE RETURNING IN
RELATIVELY WK SFC FLOW. WL ONCE AGN HV THE RISK FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT SUPPORT FOR NMRS OR MATURE STORMS SEEMS TO BE
LACKING. HV POPS NO HIER THAN CHC...INITIATING IN THE HIER TRRN BY
MID AFTN AND MIGRATING TWD THE COAST. HWVR...THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE
SHUD SPELL THEIR DEMISE...AND POPS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY WL
END UP LWR THAN INLAND AREAS. MAXT WL BE A CPL DEGF LWR THAN THU. WL
BE KEEPING MIN-T IN THE MID-UPR 60S DUE TO DEBRIS CLDS. THAT CUD
POTENTIALLY END UP BEING A PINCH TOO WARM BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPTS.

A STRONGER CDFNT WL SLOWLY MARCH TWD THE AREA THIS WKND. WL BE IN
THE SW FLOW AHD OF FNT SAT...W/ GREATER INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NWD
AHD OF BNDRY. THE INSTBY AXIS WL REMAIN W OF THE MTNS...WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIEST POPS WL BE PLACED /AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT/. IN
ADDITION...SAT HAS THE BEST CHC AT REACHING 90F. FOR NOW WL BE
HOLDING MAXT JUST SHY OF THAT.

THE FNT WL BE DRAGGED ACRS AREA ON SUNDAY...W/ NRN STREAM LOPRES
HEADING TWD THE CNDN MARITIMES. THAT WL MAKE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FNT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPR FLOW. EXACT TIMING STILL A BIT UP IN
THE AIR...BUT RAFL RATES WL BE A CONCERN SINCE PWAT WL BE NEAR 2
INCHES. HV LKLY POPS AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS.

IN A PTTN SUCH AS THIS...ITS ALWAYS QSTNBL HOW FAR S FNT WL MAKE IT
BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT. HV COOLER AIR IN FCST FOR MON-TUE...BUT
AM NOT SURE WHETHER FOCUS FOR STORMS WL COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HV CHC POPS THRU XTNDD FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 2KFT CURRENTLY NOTED JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY
14/15Z...WITH SCT CU AND BKN-OVC MID LVL DECK THEN EXPECTED.

MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE PCPN TIMING...COULD SEE +/- 1-2 HRS. WHILE
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE VCTS MENTION...CANNOT RULE
OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM...ESP
DC/BALTIMORE METRO TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY-STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BRIEFLY.

PCPN TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...WITH DRY WX THEN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ON THURS...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHC FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY SLY TODAY 8-10 KTS...BCMG LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TOMORROW...THOUGH STILL REMAINING LESS THAN 5
KTS.

CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST EACH DAY IN THE OUTLOOK...SPCLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR STORMS WL BE ON SUNDAY. LCL
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LWR EXIST INVOF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER ZONE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THIS
AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR SLY CHANNELING. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
TONIGHT...ONLY KEEPING THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE...WITH
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY THURS
MORNING...LASTING THRU THURS NIGHT.

TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN COULD BRING PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS.

WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ELY FRI...BUT S/SWLY FLOW WL REASSERT
ITSELF BY AFTN-EVNG...CONTG THRU SAT. CHANNELING WL COME CLOSE TO
SCA BY FRI EVNG...BUT THINK THAT SAT AFTN-EVE HAS A BETTER SCA RISK.
CDFNT WL SAG ACRS AREA SUNDAY...MAKING FOR NMRS TSRA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271417
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN A HUMID AIRMASS THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S-SW TO N-NE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE. AS THE WAVE OF SHOWERS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT TAPS INTO UNSTABLE AIR. THE WIND FIELD
IS GREATER NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO PA. HI RES GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE OF SHOWERS THAT IS
SLOWLY HEADING INTO THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AFTER 2PM. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

INCRSG COVERAGE IN THE CONVECTION BY MIDDAY. THE QUESTION THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAD BEEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMO WOULD BECOME THIS AFTN...AND
AS A RESULT WHAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS.
WHILE SHEAR HAS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIGGER
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER STORMS FOR TODAY. AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALIGNS ALONG THE LEE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH
THE THINKING THAT A THINNER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...LEADING TO BETTER DIURNAL HEATING. THE NAM...WITH
THE TYPICAL HIGHER DEW PTS...HAS THE MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES...ABV
2000 J/KG FOR INSTANCE AT DCA. BUT EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO EVEN BEING CONSERVATIVE THERE IS A GOOD AMT
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY THINKING THAT WITH THE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FLOW...WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL MD
MIDDAY UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. AS THE LINE PUSHES
EAST...EXPECTING IT TO HIT THE LEE TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND THOUGH LACKING ON THE SHEAR...THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONGER TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SVR STORMS. WITH
THE LACK OF SHEAR...EXPECTING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF SFC BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BCMG DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE MAIN METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THURS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC
HIGH AND UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL WORK TO STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WITH IT BCMG NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURS
NIGHT. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMO BECOMES DECENTLY UNSTABLE YET
AGAIN WITH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS PERSISTING
IN THE 60S. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WONT BE NEAR THE LVLS AS
TODAY...EXPECTING A BUT MORE SHEAR OVER THE AREA TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND WITH
A LACKING OF UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING SVR OR EVEN STRONGER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THURS NIGHT...ALONG WITH ANY
DAYTIME RESULTING INSTABILITY...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE
NIGHT EVERYWHERE...BUT THESE COULD VERY WELL BE OVERDONE...WITH THE
PCPN TAPERING OFF SOONER. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...STILL IN THE 60S THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC TROFFING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI MRNG. ANY THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY WUD HV WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND MID LVL HGTS START TO
RISE ONCE AGN. THE BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SYNOP PTTN WL BE RETURNING IN
RELATIVELY WK SFC FLOW. WL ONCE AGN HV THE RISK FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT SUPPORT FOR NMRS OR MATURE STORMS SEEMS TO BE
LACKING. HV POPS NO HIER THAN CHC...INITIATING IN THE HIER TRRN BY
MID AFTN AND MIGRATING TWD THE COAST. HWVR...THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE
SHUD SPELL THEIR DEMISE...AND POPS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY WL
END UP LWR THAN INLAND AREAS. MAXT WL BE A CPL DEGF LWR THAN THU. WL
BE KEEPING MIN-T IN THE MID-UPR 60S DUE TO DEBRIS CLDS. THAT CUD
POTENTIALLY END UP BEING A PINCH TOO WARM BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPTS.

A STRONGER CDFNT WL SLOWLY MARCH TWD THE AREA THIS WKND. WL BE IN
THE SW FLOW AHD OF FNT SAT...W/ GREATER INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NWD
AHD OF BNDRY. THE INSTBY AXIS WL REMAIN W OF THE MTNS...WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIEST POPS WL BE PLACED /AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT/. IN
ADDITION...SAT HAS THE BEST CHC AT REACHING 90F. FOR NOW WL BE
HOLDING MAXT JUST SHY OF THAT.

THE FNT WL BE DRAGGED ACRS AREA ON SUNDAY...W/ NRN STREAM LOPRES
HEADING TWD THE CNDN MARITIMES. THAT WL MAKE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FNT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPR FLOW. EXACT TIMING STILL A BIT UP IN
THE AIR...BUT RAFL RATES WL BE A CONCERN SINCE PWAT WL BE NEAR 2
INCHES. HV LKLY POPS AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS.

IN A PTTN SUCH AS THIS...ITS ALWAYS QSTNBL HOW FAR S FNT WL MAKE IT
BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT. HV COOLER AIR IN FCST FOR MON-TUE...BUT
AM NOT SURE WHETHER FOCUS FOR STORMS WL COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HV CHC POPS THRU XTNDD FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 2KFT CURRENTLY NOTED JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY
14/15Z...WITH SCT CU AND BKN-OVC MID LVL DECK THEN EXPECTED.

MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE PCPN TIMING...COULD SEE +/- 1-2 HRS. WHILE
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE VCTS MENTION...CANNOT RULE
OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM...ESP
DC/BALTIMORE METRO TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY-STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BRIEFLY.

PCPN TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...WITH DRY WX THEN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ON THURS...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHC FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY SLY TODAY 8-10 KTS...BCMG LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TOMORROW...THOUGH STILL REMAINING LESS THAN 5
KTS.

CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST EACH DAY IN THE OUTLOOK...SPCLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR STORMS WL BE ON SUNDAY. LCL
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LWR EXIST INVOF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER ZONE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THIS
AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR SLY CHANNELING. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
TONIGHT...ONLY KEEPING THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE...WITH
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY THURS
MORNING...LASTING THRU THURS NIGHT.

TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN COULD BRING PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS.

WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ELY FRI...BUT S/SWLY FLOW WL REASSERT
ITSELF BY AFTN-EVNG...CONTG THRU SAT. CHANNELING WL COME CLOSE TO
SCA BY FRI EVNG...BUT THINK THAT SAT AFTN-EVE HAS A BETTER SCA RISK.
CDFNT WL SAG ACRS AREA SUNDAY...MAKING FOR NMRS TSRA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 271417
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN A HUMID AIRMASS THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S-SW TO N-NE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE. AS THE WAVE OF SHOWERS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT TAPS INTO UNSTABLE AIR. THE WIND FIELD
IS GREATER NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO PA. HI RES GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE OF SHOWERS THAT IS
SLOWLY HEADING INTO THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AFTER 2PM. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

INCRSG COVERAGE IN THE CONVECTION BY MIDDAY. THE QUESTION THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAD BEEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMO WOULD BECOME THIS AFTN...AND
AS A RESULT WHAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS.
WHILE SHEAR HAS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIGGER
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER STORMS FOR TODAY. AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALIGNS ALONG THE LEE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH
THE THINKING THAT A THINNER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...LEADING TO BETTER DIURNAL HEATING. THE NAM...WITH
THE TYPICAL HIGHER DEW PTS...HAS THE MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES...ABV
2000 J/KG FOR INSTANCE AT DCA. BUT EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO EVEN BEING CONSERVATIVE THERE IS A GOOD AMT
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY THINKING THAT WITH THE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FLOW...WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL MD
MIDDAY UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. AS THE LINE PUSHES
EAST...EXPECTING IT TO HIT THE LEE TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND THOUGH LACKING ON THE SHEAR...THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONGER TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SVR STORMS. WITH
THE LACK OF SHEAR...EXPECTING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF SFC BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BCMG DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE MAIN METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THURS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC
HIGH AND UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL WORK TO STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WITH IT BCMG NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURS
NIGHT. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMO BECOMES DECENTLY UNSTABLE YET
AGAIN WITH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS PERSISTING
IN THE 60S. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WONT BE NEAR THE LVLS AS
TODAY...EXPECTING A BUT MORE SHEAR OVER THE AREA TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND WITH
A LACKING OF UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING SVR OR EVEN STRONGER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THURS NIGHT...ALONG WITH ANY
DAYTIME RESULTING INSTABILITY...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE
NIGHT EVERYWHERE...BUT THESE COULD VERY WELL BE OVERDONE...WITH THE
PCPN TAPERING OFF SOONER. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...STILL IN THE 60S THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC TROFFING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI MRNG. ANY THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY WUD HV WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND MID LVL HGTS START TO
RISE ONCE AGN. THE BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SYNOP PTTN WL BE RETURNING IN
RELATIVELY WK SFC FLOW. WL ONCE AGN HV THE RISK FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT SUPPORT FOR NMRS OR MATURE STORMS SEEMS TO BE
LACKING. HV POPS NO HIER THAN CHC...INITIATING IN THE HIER TRRN BY
MID AFTN AND MIGRATING TWD THE COAST. HWVR...THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE
SHUD SPELL THEIR DEMISE...AND POPS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY WL
END UP LWR THAN INLAND AREAS. MAXT WL BE A CPL DEGF LWR THAN THU. WL
BE KEEPING MIN-T IN THE MID-UPR 60S DUE TO DEBRIS CLDS. THAT CUD
POTENTIALLY END UP BEING A PINCH TOO WARM BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPTS.

A STRONGER CDFNT WL SLOWLY MARCH TWD THE AREA THIS WKND. WL BE IN
THE SW FLOW AHD OF FNT SAT...W/ GREATER INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NWD
AHD OF BNDRY. THE INSTBY AXIS WL REMAIN W OF THE MTNS...WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIEST POPS WL BE PLACED /AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT/. IN
ADDITION...SAT HAS THE BEST CHC AT REACHING 90F. FOR NOW WL BE
HOLDING MAXT JUST SHY OF THAT.

THE FNT WL BE DRAGGED ACRS AREA ON SUNDAY...W/ NRN STREAM LOPRES
HEADING TWD THE CNDN MARITIMES. THAT WL MAKE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FNT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPR FLOW. EXACT TIMING STILL A BIT UP IN
THE AIR...BUT RAFL RATES WL BE A CONCERN SINCE PWAT WL BE NEAR 2
INCHES. HV LKLY POPS AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS.

IN A PTTN SUCH AS THIS...ITS ALWAYS QSTNBL HOW FAR S FNT WL MAKE IT
BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT. HV COOLER AIR IN FCST FOR MON-TUE...BUT
AM NOT SURE WHETHER FOCUS FOR STORMS WL COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HV CHC POPS THRU XTNDD FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 2KFT CURRENTLY NOTED JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY
14/15Z...WITH SCT CU AND BKN-OVC MID LVL DECK THEN EXPECTED.

MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE PCPN TIMING...COULD SEE +/- 1-2 HRS. WHILE
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE VCTS MENTION...CANNOT RULE
OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM...ESP
DC/BALTIMORE METRO TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY-STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BRIEFLY.

PCPN TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...WITH DRY WX THEN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ON THURS...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHC FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY SLY TODAY 8-10 KTS...BCMG LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TOMORROW...THOUGH STILL REMAINING LESS THAN 5
KTS.

CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST EACH DAY IN THE OUTLOOK...SPCLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR STORMS WL BE ON SUNDAY. LCL
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LWR EXIST INVOF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER ZONE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THIS
AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR SLY CHANNELING. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
TONIGHT...ONLY KEEPING THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE...WITH
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY THURS
MORNING...LASTING THRU THURS NIGHT.

TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN COULD BRING PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS.

WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ELY FRI...BUT S/SWLY FLOW WL REASSERT
ITSELF BY AFTN-EVNG...CONTG THRU SAT. CHANNELING WL COME CLOSE TO
SCA BY FRI EVNG...BUT THINK THAT SAT AFTN-EVE HAS A BETTER SCA RISK.
CDFNT WL SAG ACRS AREA SUNDAY...MAKING FOR NMRS TSRA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 271417
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1017 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S IN A HUMID AIRMASS THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S-SW TO N-NE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE. AS THE WAVE OF SHOWERS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT TAPS INTO UNSTABLE AIR. THE WIND FIELD
IS GREATER NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE SO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CLOSER TO PA. HI RES GUIDANCE IS
DEPICTING THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE OF SHOWERS THAT IS
SLOWLY HEADING INTO THE HIGHLANDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AFTER 2PM. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

INCRSG COVERAGE IN THE CONVECTION BY MIDDAY. THE QUESTION THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAD BEEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMO WOULD BECOME THIS AFTN...AND
AS A RESULT WHAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS.
WHILE SHEAR HAS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIGGER
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER STORMS FOR TODAY. AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALIGNS ALONG THE LEE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH
THE THINKING THAT A THINNER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...LEADING TO BETTER DIURNAL HEATING. THE NAM...WITH
THE TYPICAL HIGHER DEW PTS...HAS THE MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES...ABV
2000 J/KG FOR INSTANCE AT DCA. BUT EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO EVEN BEING CONSERVATIVE THERE IS A GOOD AMT
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY THINKING THAT WITH THE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FLOW...WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL MD
MIDDAY UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. AS THE LINE PUSHES
EAST...EXPECTING IT TO HIT THE LEE TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND THOUGH LACKING ON THE SHEAR...THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONGER TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SVR STORMS. WITH
THE LACK OF SHEAR...EXPECTING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF SFC BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BCMG DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE MAIN METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THURS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC
HIGH AND UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL WORK TO STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WITH IT BCMG NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURS
NIGHT. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMO BECOMES DECENTLY UNSTABLE YET
AGAIN WITH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS PERSISTING
IN THE 60S. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WONT BE NEAR THE LVLS AS
TODAY...EXPECTING A BUT MORE SHEAR OVER THE AREA TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND WITH
A LACKING OF UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING SVR OR EVEN STRONGER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THURS NIGHT...ALONG WITH ANY
DAYTIME RESULTING INSTABILITY...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE
NIGHT EVERYWHERE...BUT THESE COULD VERY WELL BE OVERDONE...WITH THE
PCPN TAPERING OFF SOONER. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...STILL IN THE 60S THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC TROFFING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI MRNG. ANY THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY WUD HV WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND MID LVL HGTS START TO
RISE ONCE AGN. THE BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SYNOP PTTN WL BE RETURNING IN
RELATIVELY WK SFC FLOW. WL ONCE AGN HV THE RISK FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT SUPPORT FOR NMRS OR MATURE STORMS SEEMS TO BE
LACKING. HV POPS NO HIER THAN CHC...INITIATING IN THE HIER TRRN BY
MID AFTN AND MIGRATING TWD THE COAST. HWVR...THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE
SHUD SPELL THEIR DEMISE...AND POPS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY WL
END UP LWR THAN INLAND AREAS. MAXT WL BE A CPL DEGF LWR THAN THU. WL
BE KEEPING MIN-T IN THE MID-UPR 60S DUE TO DEBRIS CLDS. THAT CUD
POTENTIALLY END UP BEING A PINCH TOO WARM BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPTS.

A STRONGER CDFNT WL SLOWLY MARCH TWD THE AREA THIS WKND. WL BE IN
THE SW FLOW AHD OF FNT SAT...W/ GREATER INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NWD
AHD OF BNDRY. THE INSTBY AXIS WL REMAIN W OF THE MTNS...WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIEST POPS WL BE PLACED /AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT/. IN
ADDITION...SAT HAS THE BEST CHC AT REACHING 90F. FOR NOW WL BE
HOLDING MAXT JUST SHY OF THAT.

THE FNT WL BE DRAGGED ACRS AREA ON SUNDAY...W/ NRN STREAM LOPRES
HEADING TWD THE CNDN MARITIMES. THAT WL MAKE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FNT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPR FLOW. EXACT TIMING STILL A BIT UP IN
THE AIR...BUT RAFL RATES WL BE A CONCERN SINCE PWAT WL BE NEAR 2
INCHES. HV LKLY POPS AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS.

IN A PTTN SUCH AS THIS...ITS ALWAYS QSTNBL HOW FAR S FNT WL MAKE IT
BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT. HV COOLER AIR IN FCST FOR MON-TUE...BUT
AM NOT SURE WHETHER FOCUS FOR STORMS WL COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HV CHC POPS THRU XTNDD FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 2KFT CURRENTLY NOTED JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY
14/15Z...WITH SCT CU AND BKN-OVC MID LVL DECK THEN EXPECTED.

MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE PCPN TIMING...COULD SEE +/- 1-2 HRS. WHILE
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE VCTS MENTION...CANNOT RULE
OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM...ESP
DC/BALTIMORE METRO TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY-STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BRIEFLY.

PCPN TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...WITH DRY WX THEN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ON THURS...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHC FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY SLY TODAY 8-10 KTS...BCMG LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TOMORROW...THOUGH STILL REMAINING LESS THAN 5
KTS.

CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST EACH DAY IN THE OUTLOOK...SPCLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR STORMS WL BE ON SUNDAY. LCL
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LWR EXIST INVOF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER ZONE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THIS
AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR SLY CHANNELING. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
TONIGHT...ONLY KEEPING THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE...WITH
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY THURS
MORNING...LASTING THRU THURS NIGHT.

TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN COULD BRING PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS.

WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ELY FRI...BUT S/SWLY FLOW WL REASSERT
ITSELF BY AFTN-EVNG...CONTG THRU SAT. CHANNELING WL COME CLOSE TO
SCA BY FRI EVNG...BUT THINK THAT SAT AFTN-EVE HAS A BETTER SCA RISK.
CDFNT WL SAG ACRS AREA SUNDAY...MAKING FOR NMRS TSRA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS/HAS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 270755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE INCRSG LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS BY THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A HAGERSTOWN TO DC TO SOUTHERN MD LINE.

REGION REMAINS PLACED UNDER PERSISTING UPPER LVL RIDGE TODAY WHILE
AN UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND APPROACHES THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE...THOUGH WILL WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH
THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN. WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDING THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN ON GOING CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN OH RIVER VALLEY AS NOTED ON 07Z WATER VAPOR.
EXPECTING THIS PCPN TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN AREAS NEAR DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING. MAINLY SHOWERS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO TSTM
INITIALLY.

INCRSG COVERAGE IN THE CONVECTION BY MIDDAY. THE QUESTION THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAD BEEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMO WOULD BECOME THIS AFTN...AND
AS A RESULT WHAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS.
WHILE SHEAR HAS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIGGER
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER STORMS FOR TODAY. AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALIGNS ALONG THE LEE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH
THE THINKING THAT A THINNER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...LEADING TO BETTER DIURNAL HEATING. THE NAM...WITH
THE TYPICAL HIGHER DEW PTS...HAS THE MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES...ABV
2000 J/KG FOR INSTANCE AT DCA. BUT EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO EVEN BEING CONSERVATIVE THERE IS A GOOD AMT
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY THINKING THAT WITH THE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FLOW...WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL MD
MIDDAY UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. AS THE LINE PUSHES
EAST...EXPECTING IT TO HIT THE LEE TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND THOUGH LACKING ON THE SHEAR...THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONGER TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SVR STORMS. WITH
THE LACK OF SHEAR...EXPECTING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF SFC BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BCMG DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE MAIN METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THURS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC
HIGH AND UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL WORK TO STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WITH IT BCMG NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURS
NIGHT. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMO BECOMES DECENTLY UNSTABLE YET
AGAIN WITH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS PERSISTING
IN THE 60S. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WONT BE NEAR THE LVLS AS
TODAY...EXPECTING A BUT MORE SHEAR OVER THE AREA TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND WITH
A LACKING OF UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING SVR OR EVEN STRONGER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THURS NIGHT...ALONG WITH ANY
DAYTIME RESULTING INSTABILITY...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE
NIGHT EVERYWHERE...BUT THESE COULD VERY WELL BE OVERDONE...WITH THE
PCPN TAPERING OFF SOONER. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...STILL IN THE 60S THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC TROFFING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI MRNG. ANY THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY WUD HV WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND MID LVL HGTS START TO
RISE ONCE AGN. THE BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SYNOP PTTN WL BE RETURNING IN
RELATIVELY WK SFC FLOW. WL ONCE AGN HV THE RISK FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT SUPPORT FOR NMRS OR MATURE STORMS SEEMS TO BE
LACKING. HV POPS NO HIER THAN CHC...INITIATING IN THE HIER TRRN BY
MID AFTN AND MIGRATING TWD THE COAST. HWVR...THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE
SHUD SPELL THEIR DEMISE...AND POPS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY WL
END UP LWR THAN INLAND AREAS. MAXT WL BE A CPL DEGF LWR THAN THU. WL
BE KEEPING MIN-T IN THE MID-UPR 60S DUE TO DEBRIS CLDS. THAT CUD
POTENTIALLY END UP BEING A PINCH TOO WARM BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPTS.

A STRONGER CDFNT WL SLOWLY MARCH TWD THE AREA THIS WKND. WL BE IN
THE SW FLOW AHD OF FNT SAT...W/ GREATER INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NWD
AHD OF BNDRY. THE INSTBY AXIS WL REMAIN W OF THE MTNS...WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIEST POPS WL BE PLACED /AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT/. IN
ADDITION...SAT HAS THE BEST CHC AT REACHING 90F. FOR NOW WL BE
HOLDING MAXT JUST SHY OF THAT.

THE FNT WL BE DRAGGED ACRS AREA ON SUNDAY...W/ NRN STREAM LOPRES
HEADING TWD THE CNDN MARITIMES. THAT WL MAKE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FNT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPR FLOW. EXACT TIMING STILL A BIT UP IN
THE AIR...BUT RAFL RATES WL BE A CONCERN SINCE PWAT WL BE NEAR 2
INCHES. HV LKLY POPS AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS.

IN A PTTN SUCH AS THIS...ITS ALWAYS QSTNBL HOW FAR S FNT WL MAKE IT
BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT. HV COOLER AIR IN FCST FOR MON-TUE...BUT
AM NOT SURE WHETHER FOCUS FOR STORMS WL COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HV CHC POPS THRU XTNDD FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 2KFT CURRENTLY NOTED JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY
14/15Z...WITH SCT CU AND BKN-OVC MID LVL DECK THEN EXPECTED.

MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE PCPN TIMING...COULD SEE +/- 1-2 HRS. WHILE
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE VCTS MENTION...CANNOT RULE
OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM...ESP
DC/BALTIMORE METRO TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY-STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BRIEFLY.

PCPN TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...WITH DRY WX THEN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ON THURS...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHC FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY SLY TODAY 8-10 KTS...BCMG LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TOMORROW...THOUGH STILL REMAINING LESS THAN 5
KTS.

CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST EACH DAY IN THE OUTLOOK...SPCLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR STORMS WL BE ON SUNDAY. LCL
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LWR EXIST INVOF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER ZONE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THIS
AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR SLY CHANNELING. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
TONIGHT...ONLY KEEPING THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE...WITH
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY THURS
MORNING...LASTING THRU THURS NIGHT.

TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN COULD BRING PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS.

WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ELY FRI...BUT S/SWLY FLOW WL REASSERT
ITSELF BY AFTN-EVNG...CONTG THRU SAT. CHANNELING WL COME CLOSE TO
SCA BY FRI EVNG...BUT THINK THAT SAT AFTN-EVE HAS A BETTER SCA RISK.
CDFNT WL SAG ACRS AREA SUNDAY...MAKING FOR NMRS TSRA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 270755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY BUT WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT THROUGH. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE INCRSG LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS BY THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A HAGERSTOWN TO DC TO SOUTHERN MD LINE.

REGION REMAINS PLACED UNDER PERSISTING UPPER LVL RIDGE TODAY WHILE
AN UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND APPROACHES THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OFFSHORE...THOUGH WILL WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH
THE FORMATION OF A LEE TROUGH EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN. WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDING THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN ON GOING CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN OH RIVER VALLEY AS NOTED ON 07Z WATER VAPOR.
EXPECTING THIS PCPN TO REACH THE FAR WESTERN AREAS NEAR DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING. MAINLY SHOWERS THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO TSTM
INITIALLY.

INCRSG COVERAGE IN THE CONVECTION BY MIDDAY. THE QUESTION THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAD BEEN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMO WOULD BECOME THIS AFTN...AND
AS A RESULT WHAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SVR TSTMS.
WHILE SHEAR HAS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ON THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS...GENERALLY AROUND 20-25 KTS...INSTABILITY REMAINS THE BIGGER
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGER STORMS FOR TODAY. AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALIGNS ALONG THE LEE SFC TROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH
THE THINKING THAT A THINNER LAYER OF CLOUDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS...LEADING TO BETTER DIURNAL HEATING. THE NAM...WITH
THE TYPICAL HIGHER DEW PTS...HAS THE MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE VALUES...ABV
2000 J/KG FOR INSTANCE AT DCA. BUT EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING AROUND
1000 J/KG...SO EVEN BEING CONSERVATIVE THERE IS A GOOD AMT
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY THINKING THAT WITH THE NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND FLOW...WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL MD
MIDDAY UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. AS THE LINE PUSHES
EAST...EXPECTING IT TO HIT THE LEE TROUGH ALIGNED JUST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...AND THOUGH LACKING ON THE SHEAR...THE INSTABILITY WILL
BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STRONGER TO POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SVR STORMS. WITH
THE LACK OF SHEAR...EXPECTING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY THIS EVENING...WITH LOSS OF SFC BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY...
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF...WITH AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BCMG DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND EVERYWHERE
ELSE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE MAIN METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY THURS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SFC
HIGH AND UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL WORK TO STALL THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...WITH IT BCMG NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THURS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING BY THURS
NIGHT. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE THE TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMO BECOMES DECENTLY UNSTABLE YET
AGAIN WITH TEMPS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS PERSISTING
IN THE 60S. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WONT BE NEAR THE LVLS AS
TODAY...EXPECTING A BUT MORE SHEAR OVER THE AREA TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL SVR PARAMETERS ON THE WEAKER SIDE...AND WITH
A LACKING OF UPPER LVL SUPPORT AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF THE AREA...NOT ANTICIPATING SVR OR EVEN STRONGER TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES THURS NIGHT...ALONG WITH ANY
DAYTIME RESULTING INSTABILITY...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC POPS THRU THE
NIGHT EVERYWHERE...BUT THESE COULD VERY WELL BE OVERDONE...WITH THE
PCPN TAPERING OFF SOONER. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...STILL IN THE 60S THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC TROFFING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRI MRNG. ANY THERMAL
DISCONTINUITY WUD HV WASHED OUT BY THEN...AND MID LVL HGTS START TO
RISE ONCE AGN. THE BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SYNOP PTTN WL BE RETURNING IN
RELATIVELY WK SFC FLOW. WL ONCE AGN HV THE RISK FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSTMS...BUT SUPPORT FOR NMRS OR MATURE STORMS SEEMS TO BE
LACKING. HV POPS NO HIER THAN CHC...INITIATING IN THE HIER TRRN BY
MID AFTN AND MIGRATING TWD THE COAST. HWVR...THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE
SHUD SPELL THEIR DEMISE...AND POPS ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE BAY WL
END UP LWR THAN INLAND AREAS. MAXT WL BE A CPL DEGF LWR THAN THU. WL
BE KEEPING MIN-T IN THE MID-UPR 60S DUE TO DEBRIS CLDS. THAT CUD
POTENTIALLY END UP BEING A PINCH TOO WARM BASED ON PROJECTED DEWPTS.

A STRONGER CDFNT WL SLOWLY MARCH TWD THE AREA THIS WKND. WL BE IN
THE SW FLOW AHD OF FNT SAT...W/ GREATER INSTABILITY BEING PULLED NWD
AHD OF BNDRY. THE INSTBY AXIS WL REMAIN W OF THE MTNS...WHICH IS
WHERE THE HIEST POPS WL BE PLACED /AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT/. IN
ADDITION...SAT HAS THE BEST CHC AT REACHING 90F. FOR NOW WL BE
HOLDING MAXT JUST SHY OF THAT.

THE FNT WL BE DRAGGED ACRS AREA ON SUNDAY...W/ NRN STREAM LOPRES
HEADING TWD THE CNDN MARITIMES. THAT WL MAKE THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FNT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPR FLOW. EXACT TIMING STILL A BIT UP IN
THE AIR...BUT RAFL RATES WL BE A CONCERN SINCE PWAT WL BE NEAR 2
INCHES. HV LKLY POPS AND SLGTLY LWR TEMPS.

IN A PTTN SUCH AS THIS...ITS ALWAYS QSTNBL HOW FAR S FNT WL MAKE IT
BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT. HV COOLER AIR IN FCST FOR MON-TUE...BUT
AM NOT SURE WHETHER FOCUS FOR STORMS WL COMPLETELY PUSH THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HV CHC POPS THRU XTNDD FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. PSBL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH CIGS AROUND 2KFT CURRENTLY NOTED JUST
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ANY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY
14/15Z...WITH SCT CU AND BKN-OVC MID LVL DECK THEN EXPECTED.

MOD CONFIDENCE ON THE PCPN TIMING...COULD SEE +/- 1-2 HRS. WHILE
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE VCTS MENTION...CANNOT RULE
OUT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH ANY STRONGER TSTM...ESP
DC/BALTIMORE METRO TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
GUSTY-STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS BRIEFLY.

PCPN TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...WITH DRY WX THEN TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ON THURS...BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHC FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS GENERALLY SLY TODAY 8-10 KTS...BCMG LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TOMORROW...THOUGH STILL REMAINING LESS THAN 5
KTS.

CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXIST EACH DAY IN THE OUTLOOK...SPCLY
DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS. BEST CHC FOR STORMS WL BE ON SUNDAY. LCL
FLGT RESTRICTIONS TO IFR OR LWR EXIST INVOF STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER ZONE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR THIS
AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR SLY CHANNELING. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
TONIGHT...ONLY KEEPING THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONE...WITH
SUB- SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY THURS
MORNING...LASTING THRU THURS NIGHT.

TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN COULD BRING PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG
WINDS.

WINDS WL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ELY FRI...BUT S/SWLY FLOW WL REASSERT
ITSELF BY AFTN-EVNG...CONTG THRU SAT. CHANNELING WL COME CLOSE TO
SCA BY FRI EVNG...BUT THINK THAT SAT AFTN-EVE HAS A BETTER SCA RISK.
CDFNT WL SAG ACRS AREA SUNDAY...MAKING FOR NMRS TSRA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531>533-
     537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ534-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ530.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 270102 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED/WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH NO LIGHTNING SEEN IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. CURRENT BAND
OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO PA TONIGHT ON A
NNE STEERING FLOW. A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER ERN OH AND WRN WV WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE HIGHLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THE I-81 CORRIDOR
BY 18Z WED AND TO THE UPPER CHES BAY BY 00Z THU. THESE SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
HIGH K INDICES BUT FAST STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MANAGEABLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS...
MOISTURE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVITY ACROSS AL/GA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THINNER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...AROUND 20-30KTS WITH THE
BEST SHEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SIMILAR TO TODAY...TUESDAY.
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE ARE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN W/ THE HIGH OFF THE CST. THIS WL
CONT TO DRAW WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC WED NGT-THU
NGT. WHILE TSTMS WL BE PSBL BOTH WED EVE AND THU AFTN THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OR A FORCING MECHANISM SO SVR THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

TEMPS SHOULD RMN STEADY - HIGHS IN THE 80S...PSBLY A90 IN THE
CITIES. LOWS IN THE 60S...L70S IN THE CITIES.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING
DOWN AS WELL. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TENDS TO BE THE TREND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH PERIOD.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY AT DCA...BWI AND MTN. INCLUDED A
2-3 HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT THOSE TAF SITES EARLY WED MORNING.
SHOWERS/T-STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AT KMRB WED AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
BWI AND MTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED AT IAD...DCA AND
CHO.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY PSBL RW/TRW WED NGT-THU NGT. NO
PROBS XPCTD FRI.

VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AREA NEAR CHO OR MRB TERMINAL. VFR ELSEWHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AT MTN...BWI...DCA TERMINALS. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT IAD...CHO...AND MRB TERMINALS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND FIELD SUBSIDES NORTH OF SANDY
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 270102 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
902 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED/WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST HALF
HOUR WITH NO LIGHTNING SEEN IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. CURRENT BAND
OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO PA TONIGHT ON A
NNE STEERING FLOW. A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER ERN OH AND WRN WV WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE HIGHLANDS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THE I-81 CORRIDOR
BY 18Z WED AND TO THE UPPER CHES BAY BY 00Z THU. THESE SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
HIGH K INDICES BUT FAST STORM MOTION SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MANAGEABLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS...
MOISTURE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVITY ACROSS AL/GA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THINNER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...AROUND 20-30KTS WITH THE
BEST SHEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SIMILAR TO TODAY...TUESDAY.
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE ARE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN W/ THE HIGH OFF THE CST. THIS WL
CONT TO DRAW WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC WED NGT-THU
NGT. WHILE TSTMS WL BE PSBL BOTH WED EVE AND THU AFTN THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OR A FORCING MECHANISM SO SVR THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

TEMPS SHOULD RMN STEADY - HIGHS IN THE 80S...PSBLY A90 IN THE
CITIES. LOWS IN THE 60S...L70S IN THE CITIES.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING
DOWN AS WELL. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TENDS TO BE THE TREND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH PERIOD.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS MAY
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY AT DCA...BWI AND MTN. INCLUDED A
2-3 HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT THOSE TAF SITES EARLY WED MORNING.
SHOWERS/T-STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AT KMRB WED AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
BWI AND MTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED AT IAD...DCA AND
CHO.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY PSBL RW/TRW WED NGT-THU NGT. NO
PROBS XPCTD FRI.

VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AREA NEAR CHO OR MRB TERMINAL. VFR ELSEWHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AT MTN...BWI...DCA TERMINALS. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT IAD...CHO...AND MRB TERMINALS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND FIELD SUBSIDES NORTH OF SANDY
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.

NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 261856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EAST COAST LEADING TO WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE HIGHLANDS TODAY BUT
HAVE DISSPATED AS THEY APPROACHED THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MTNS IN SW VA AND CENTRAL WV
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
LOCATED. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GROWING
AND LASTING AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER
EAST...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS...
MOISTURE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVITY ACROSS AL/GA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THINNER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...AROUND 20-30KTS WITH THE
BEST SHEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SIMILAR TO TODAY...TUESDAY.
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WE ARE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN W/ THE HIGH OFF THE CST. THIS WL
CONT TO DRAW WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC WED NGT-THU
NGT. WHILE TSTMS WL BE PSBL BOTH WED EVE AND THU AFTN THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OR A FORCING MECHANISM SO SVR THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

TEMPS SHOULD RMN STEADY - HIGHS IN THE 80S...PSBLY A90 IN THE
CITIES. LOWS IN THE 60S...L70S IN THE CITIES.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING
DOWN AS WELL. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TENDS TO BE THE TREND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH PERIOD.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT CHO/IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED AT THE SFC. SUB-MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT CHO BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. S WINDS
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH -SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN TS AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY PSBL RW/TRW WED NGT-THU NGT. NO
PROBS XPCTD FRI.

VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AREA NEAR CHO OR MRB TERMINAL. VFR ELSEWHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AT MTN...BWI...DCA TERMINALS. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT IAD...CHO...AND MRB TERMINALS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND FIELD SUBSIDES NORTH OF SANDY
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 261856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EAST COAST LEADING TO WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE HIGHLANDS TODAY BUT
HAVE DISSPATED AS THEY APPROACHED THE BLUE RIDGE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MTNS IN SW VA AND CENTRAL WV
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
LOCATED. DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE...SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GROWING
AND LASTING AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER
EAST...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOISTURE THAT IS TRAPPED UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER EAST WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS...
MOISTURE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH A UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVITY ACROSS AL/GA WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY. THINNER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO HEATING AND MORE
INSTABILITY. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...AROUND 20-30KTS WITH THE
BEST SHEAR NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SIMILAR TO TODAY...TUESDAY.
DUE TO THE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WE ARE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN W/ THE HIGH OFF THE CST. THIS WL
CONT TO DRAW WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE MID ATLC WED NGT-THU
NGT. WHILE TSTMS WL BE PSBL BOTH WED EVE AND THU AFTN THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OR A FORCING MECHANISM SO SVR THREAT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.

TEMPS SHOULD RMN STEADY - HIGHS IN THE 80S...PSBLY A90 IN THE
CITIES. LOWS IN THE 60S...L70S IN THE CITIES.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD LINGER IN PARTS
OF THE AREA WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT GETTING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL REMAINS THE SLOWER MODEL OVER THE GFS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING
DOWN AS WELL. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT TENDS TO BE THE TREND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A
LITTLE. HOWEVER...OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...PASSING
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE
FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR EVENTUALLY WORKS ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH PERIOD.

AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD POSE A SHOWER THREAT
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT CHO/IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED AT THE SFC. SUB-MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE AT CHO BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. S WINDS
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH -SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN TS AND GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OUTSIDE OF ANY PSBL RW/TRW WED NGT-THU NGT. NO
PROBS XPCTD FRI.

VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
IN THE AREA NEAR CHO OR MRB TERMINAL. VFR ELSEWHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AT MTN...BWI...DCA TERMINALS. MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT IAD...CHO...AND MRB TERMINALS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF
POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND FIELD SUBSIDES NORTH OF SANDY
POINT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

NO MARINE HAZARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 20 KNOTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 261355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OFF THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE TODAY WITH DEWPTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEPT US DRY AND WARM THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS
NOW MOVED FURTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE LEAVES THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
304 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 260704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
304 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260704
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
304 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL USHER IN MORE MOISTURE DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES DUE TO A
BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR MOST AREAS SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM. HOWEVER...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
AND FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. LOWER HEIGHTS
AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A THETA E RIDGE SETTING UP FOR LOCATIONS JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO HIGH AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWEST FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. IN FACT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT
MORE...ALLOWING FOR LOWER HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. A BKN/OVC DECK OF HIGH
AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ALONG
WITH MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
COMPARED TO TUESDAY DUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS. SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE A
BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A MAX IN
INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL MARYLAND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BE THICKER TO THE WEST WITH
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. SHOULD
THIS DEVELOP...THEN INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGH WHICH
WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
NOW...CERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN WARM AND QUITE HUMID THANKS TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW IN SE CANADA WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
LATE THURS INTO FRI MORNING...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY SAT
MORNING AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING THE FLOW ALOFT IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL YET
AGAIN OF THE EASTERN US. MAINTAINING UPPER END CHC POPS THRU THESE
TWO DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM POTENTIAL...SFC HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN DECENT INSTABILITY VALUES. SHEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE...AND AS SUCH THINK ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.
WHILE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP...ESP DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...TRYING TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING STILL
TOO EARLY SO WILL KEEP SCT WORDING FOR NOW. HAVE ONLY ISO SHOWERS
IN THURS/FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SAT...NEARING THE WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SAT. COULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
WARM/MOIST ATMO...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING REALLY ORGANIZED AT
THIS TIME. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON WITH THE LOSS YET AGAIN OF ANY UPPER LVL FLOW. MODEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT...WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG THE
FRONT AND TRACKING IT INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN...THOUGH WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HINTING AT THE
FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY...IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY WE WILL
SEE PCPN OCCURRING SUN-MON WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABV NORMAL THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS
HOVERING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS..EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SPOTS TO REACH 90 DUE TO ON GOING
PCPN/CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED DUE TO A LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM SO MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...BRIEF SUBVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES OVER A TERMINAL.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO LOWER
HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VARYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR OR LOWER PSBL WITH ANY SHOWER/TSTM. ANY TSTM COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF PCPN
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE GRADIENT WIND TODAY FOR
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT THE FORECAST HAS WINDS
CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE
TODAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THERE MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
LOWER HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURS AND FRI FOR MOST OF THE ZONES
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. MID CHESAPEAKE BAY COULD SEE
GUSTS TO 20 KTS EACH AFTN THRU FRI DUE TO SOUTHERN CHANNELING.

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT YET AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
SAT WILL INCREASE WINDS...WITH PSBL SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS SAT-
SAT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW...EACH DAY WILL BRING A CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ531-538-
     539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 260107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OFF
THE COAST EXPECT ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO WEAKEN FURTHER
AND ALLOW SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. NEW CONVECTION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. GFS PLOT OF 850 MB
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE SHOWS A MAXIMUM FROM MONTGOMERY
COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH DULLES TO KCHO SUGGESTING ANOTHER
POSSIBLE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN
THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR
OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE
CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND
BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO
THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AT KIAD AND KCHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL
BE PSBL... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST
INTO THE L20S DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOWER POTOMAC AND CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...WOODY!
AVIATION...LFR
MARINE...LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 251851 AAC
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING WARM HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SOUTHERN
MD. CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT.
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

SOME DISSIPATING SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL INHIBIT FULL HEATING TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH 850
TEMPS ARE WARMER TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE
UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE ATLANTIC AND MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE NEAR OR OVER THE HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM MOTION WILL BE CLOSE TO 180 SO THERE
WONT BE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SHOULD STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW VEERS TO 220 BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE BY SUNSET. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RIDGE STILL INFLUENCING
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SVR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

EARLY SUMMER WARMTH AND MOISTURE WL BE THE MAIN WX WORDS FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK. HIGH PRES OFF THE CST AND FNTL BNDRY E OF THE
MS RVR WL KEEP THE E CST IN WARM HUMID AIR. MDLS ARE PUTTING OUT
SOME LKLY POPS. IT IS HARD TO WANT TO RAISE SUMMER CNVTCN POPS TO
THAT LVL SVRL DAYS IN ADVANCE - FOR THE TIME BEING WL KEEP POPS IN
CHC RANGE.

CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS TUE AND RMN THRU THU. THIS WL KEEP
INSOLATION DOWN...BUT MOISTURE/SRLY FLOW WL ALSO BE KEEPING
NIGHTTIME WARMTH IN. HIGHS WL BE IN THE MU80S...LOWS IN THE MU60S
XCPT L70S IN THE CITIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY COULD STILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD FRONT...MODERATELY-STRONG...
APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY COULD BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING THE UPPER 60S
AND NEAR 90...RESPECTIVELY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN DOING THIS. NONETHELESS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.

A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST...HELPING TO COOL CONDITIONS DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND PASSING MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH COULD BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. -SHRA/VCTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS MRB/CHO.

VFR MAJORITY OF THE TIME TUE NGT-THU. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN/ERLY EVE. SRLY WINDS WL GUST INTO THE L20S
DURG THE AFTN.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

S WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

SRLY FLOW WL CONT OVR THE WATERS TUE NGT-THU. SCA IN EFFECT TUE
NGT FOR THE LWR PTMC/MAIN PTN OF THE BAY. THIS WL LKLY NEED TO BE
XTND INTO WED. RW/TRW WL BE PSBL AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ530-
     535-536.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/KLW




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