Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KLWX 080840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTN. ANY PCPN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE IS REMAINING
WELL EAST...AND AS SUCH EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...BUT WILL LET
DAY CREW DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS FALL. CONCERNING THE
PCPN...SFC LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE AVENUE FOR
MULTIPLE IMPULSES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS...RESULTING IN INCRG PCPN CHCS. THE FIRST OF THESE REACHES THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...PUSHING EAST THRU THE AFTN. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE PCPN TO MOVE IN MIDDAY OUT WEST...BRIEFLY
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES...EXPECTING A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CORRESPONDING WHERE THE ADVISORY IS. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LACK OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN
HOLDING OFF TILL TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT
HAND IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...
LINGERING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL
SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT
BE PSBL ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRUT THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SURZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTN. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A
GOOD PORTION OF TUES. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS BY TUES
NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMAS ACROSS
THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 080840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTN. ANY PCPN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE IS REMAINING
WELL EAST...AND AS SUCH EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...BUT WILL LET
DAY CREW DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS FALL. CONCERNING THE
PCPN...SFC LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE AVENUE FOR
MULTIPLE IMPULSES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS...RESULTING IN INCRG PCPN CHCS. THE FIRST OF THESE REACHES THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...PUSHING EAST THRU THE AFTN. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE PCPN TO MOVE IN MIDDAY OUT WEST...BRIEFLY
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES...EXPECTING A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CORRESPONDING WHERE THE ADVISORY IS. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LACK OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN
HOLDING OFF TILL TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT
HAND IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...
LINGERING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL
SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT
BE PSBL ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRUT THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SURZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTN. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A
GOOD PORTION OF TUES. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS BY TUES
NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMAS ACROSS
THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 080840
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A SECOND LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DIPPING INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTN. ANY PCPN WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE IS REMAINING
WELL EAST...AND AS SUCH EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
EXTENDED...OR MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...BUT WILL LET
DAY CREW DETERMINE WHERE THE SNOW TOTALS FALL. CONCERNING THE
PCPN...SFC LOW TO THE WEST BEGINS TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...WHILE UPPER LVL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
THIS PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS GOING TO SERVE AS THE AVENUE FOR
MULTIPLE IMPULSES TO MOVE THRU THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS...RESULTING IN INCRG PCPN CHCS. THE FIRST OF THESE REACHES THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDDAY...PUSHING EAST THRU THE AFTN. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE PCPN TO MOVE IN MIDDAY OUT WEST...BRIEFLY
RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN ALL RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY INCREASES...EXPECTING A
COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW CORRESPONDING WHERE THE ADVISORY IS. AS
THE PCPN PUSHES EAST...GENERALLY EXPECTING ALL RAIN OR MAYBE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LACK OF ANY HEAVIER PCPN
HOLDING OFF TILL TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLACE FOR THE PCPN TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MANY FACTORS STILL IN PLACE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR MANY MODEL RUNS NOW IS THE HINT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF PCPN ALIGNING OVER NE MD/SE PA/N DE. AS SUCH...AM
ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THRU
TUES NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN A 24
HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR FREDERICK COUNTY EAST AND SOUTH TO ACCOUNT
FOR BALTIMORE METRO.

IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST...SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER VA TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT
PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY TUES. 00Z GFS DEEPENS THE LOW MORE
THAN THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...SEEING THE HIGHEST
QPF AMTS IN THIS LATEST RUN. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST
BAND IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...THE EXACT AMT OF QPF AND
THE RESULTING SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH WITH INCRSG
CONFIDENCE NOW OF SEEING AT LEAST 7 INCHES. TIMING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HEAVIER SNOW MOVE IN SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER BURST PSBL TUES AFTN. THE OTHER ISSUE AT
HAND IS THE THERMAL PROFILES AND THE RESULTING P-TYPE. INITIAL
AGREEMENT WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SEEING A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS THE PCPN INCREASES IN
INTENSITY...GENERALLY AFTR 03/04Z...SHOULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A DC TO CHARLOTTESVILLE
LINE. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MD WILL STAY ALL RAIN...AT LEAST FOR
TONIGHT. 00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWING COOLER WET BULB TEMPS...WITH
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FULLY BELOW FREEZING...AND DC METRO WITH
PERIODS OF AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER THING WORKING
AGAINST SNOW TOTALS IS THAT AT FIRST NO SNOW MIGHT ACCUMULATE WITH
THE WARMER TEMPS. SO A DELAY IN SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PSBL...WHICH
MAY AFFECT TOTALS.

PCPN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CENTRAL VA TOMORROW NIGHT...
LINGERING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY THRU WED WITH THE REGION REMAINING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND CONTINUOUSLY BEING IMPACTED BY
SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE CRITERIA LVL
SNOW WONT BE PSBL OVER THE EASTERN AREAS...ADVISORY LVL SNOW MIGHT
BE PSBL ON THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN...THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPS CONTINUES FOR WED
NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO BCMG MORE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO WITH THE
POTENTIAL NEED OF A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE H5 TROF AXIS WL REMAIN THRU THE WKND...MEANING THE COLD PTTN WL
REMAIN IN PLACE. IF ANYTHING...WE/LL BE GETTING INCRSGLY COLDER.
INIT ROUND OF CAA ENDS THU. GUSTY NW WINDS WL RELAX AT THAT POINT.
THEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC REFLECTION TRACKS S OF AREA LT
FRI...WHICH DRAGS DOWN EVEN COLDER AIR FOR SAT-SUN. FOR THE MOST
PART...TEMPS WL REMAIN SUBFREEZING THRUT THE XTNDD. MIN-T WL BE IN
THE TEENS...OR LOWER. SAT NGT WUD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH PSBL
SURZERO READINGS IN THE MTNS. WIND CHILLS WL BE A CONCERN.

THE LOW ITSELF CUD PROVIDE SCT SHSN JUST ABT ANYWHERE FRI/FRI NGT.
IN ADDITION THERE WL BE CONTD UPSLOPE POTL THU BEFORE FLOW BECOMES
DISRUPTED. THE PTTN WUD SUPPORT ADDTL UPSLOPE IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY TODAY. MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY
THIS AFTN. AS THE PCPN MOVES IN LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP QUICKLY TO IFR OR LOWER...ESP TONIGHT
WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. OTHER THAN KCHO...SITES SHOULD START AS
LIGHT RAIN...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...EVENTUALLY BCMG ALL
SNOW BY TUES MORNING. KCHO LOOKS TO REMAIN ALL RAIN...THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 12 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUES WITH THE PCPN...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY WED MORNING.

GUSTY NW WINDS WL BE THE PRIMARY AVN CONCERN THU...W/ SOME G25KT
LKLY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING MORE SHSN FRI. WAY TOO SOON TO
TELL IF THIS WL MATERIALIZE...BUT IT CUD BRING MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
IF IT DID.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TODAY THRU A
GOOD PORTION OF TUES. AS THE LOW PUSHES OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS BY TUES
NIGHT...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
SPREADING TO ALL WATERS ON WED.

SCA CONDS CONT INTO THU...THEN RELAX AS BRIEF HIPRES CRESTS OVER THE
RGN AHD OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FRI.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE NRN CHSPK
BAY...BUT DEPARTURES ARE STARTING TO BE REALIZED ACROSS THE MID BAY.
PLUS...WERE STILL CARRYING CLOSE TO A FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMAS ACROSS
THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC.

AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW PRESSURE PASS OVER/EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY...ADDITIONAL WATER WILL BE DRAWN IN TO THE ESTUARY.  THAT MAY
LEAD TO COMPLICATIONS AS EARLY AS THE PM TIDE CYCLE TODAY...CARRYING
THROUGH TUESDAY. MINOR INUNDATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FOR BOTH
CYCLES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ004>006-011-014-503-505>508.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...SEARS/HTS
MARINE...SEARS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 080220 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST SHOULD
THIN OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFLYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LKS WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN VA MON
NIGHT. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP EAST OF UPPER TROF AXIS MON AND SPREAD
QUICKLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ONSET/TIMING OF PRECIP WITH 18Z
GFS/GEFS FASTER THAN 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIP COULD START BEFORE 18Z MON DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. THIS WAS ALL
COORDINATED/COLLABORATED WITH RLX AND PBZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT TO WORK NWD
INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN FCST DETAILS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MON WILL BE FINE
AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. SINCE ANY IMPACTS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL MON NIGHT...WE`LL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES ANY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE SUNSETS MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WHEN SNOW
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE
TUESDAY IN THE LOW LANDS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SNOWFALL WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE UNLESS BANDING OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS STATED MANY TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND QPF
FIELDS DIFFER IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS MOST OF THE BANDING ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE STRONG 925- 850MB EASTERLY JET
ONCE THE SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME LOCATION AND
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INSTABILITY BANDS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS THERMALLY BASED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE COLDER FOR SNOW
SUCH AS NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TEMPS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE AND MELT AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL VA
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 1-3 IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH HIGHER AMTS
ALONG THE RIDGES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS NW
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW DOWN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 6-8 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE AN OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE I-81 AND I-95
CORRIDORS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SAME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME
REENFORCED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOST
TAF SITES EXCEPT ALL SNOW AT KMRB.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND PRECIP RATES MON NIGHT REMAIN IN
QUESTION ATTM.

-SNSH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
OVER THE LOWER BAY AND POTOMAC BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 06Z MON THEN DIMINISH AS DEEP COASTAL LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS ARE UP TO HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTH FLOW BECOMES SELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WATER LEVELS INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SENSITIVE SITES IS LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 080220 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST SHOULD
THIN OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFLYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LKS WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN VA MON
NIGHT. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP EAST OF UPPER TROF AXIS MON AND SPREAD
QUICKLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ONSET/TIMING OF PRECIP WITH 18Z
GFS/GEFS FASTER THAN 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIP COULD START BEFORE 18Z MON DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. THIS WAS ALL
COORDINATED/COLLABORATED WITH RLX AND PBZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT TO WORK NWD
INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN FCST DETAILS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MON WILL BE FINE
AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. SINCE ANY IMPACTS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL MON NIGHT...WE`LL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES ANY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE SUNSETS MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WHEN SNOW
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE
TUESDAY IN THE LOW LANDS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SNOWFALL WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE UNLESS BANDING OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS STATED MANY TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND QPF
FIELDS DIFFER IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS MOST OF THE BANDING ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE STRONG 925- 850MB EASTERLY JET
ONCE THE SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME LOCATION AND
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INSTABILITY BANDS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS THERMALLY BASED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE COLDER FOR SNOW
SUCH AS NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TEMPS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE AND MELT AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL VA
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 1-3 IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH HIGHER AMTS
ALONG THE RIDGES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS NW
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW DOWN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 6-8 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE AN OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE I-81 AND I-95
CORRIDORS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SAME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME
REENFORCED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOST
TAF SITES EXCEPT ALL SNOW AT KMRB.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND PRECIP RATES MON NIGHT REMAIN IN
QUESTION ATTM.

-SNSH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
OVER THE LOWER BAY AND POTOMAC BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 06Z MON THEN DIMINISH AS DEEP COASTAL LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS ARE UP TO HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTH FLOW BECOMES SELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WATER LEVELS INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SENSITIVE SITES IS LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 080220 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NC COAST SHOULD
THIN OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFLYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LKS WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN VA MON
NIGHT. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP EAST OF UPPER TROF AXIS MON AND SPREAD
QUICKLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MON AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO ONSET/TIMING OF PRECIP WITH 18Z
GFS/GEFS FASTER THAN 12Z ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
PRECIP COULD START BEFORE 18Z MON DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THE FIVE WESTERN MOST COUNTIES. THIS WAS ALL
COORDINATED/COLLABORATED WITH RLX AND PBZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATE...PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY SLOT TO WORK NWD
INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES MAKE FOR UNCERTAIN FCST DETAILS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT EVENING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE MON WILL BE FINE
AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. SINCE ANY IMPACTS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL MON NIGHT...WE`LL NOT ISSUE ANY
ADVISORIES ANY FURTHER EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS THE SUNSETS MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WHEN SNOW
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE
TUESDAY IN THE LOW LANDS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SNOWFALL WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE UNLESS BANDING OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS STATED MANY TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND QPF
FIELDS DIFFER IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS MOST OF THE BANDING ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE STRONG 925- 850MB EASTERLY JET
ONCE THE SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME LOCATION AND
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INSTABILITY BANDS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS THERMALLY BASED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE COLDER FOR SNOW
SUCH AS NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TEMPS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE AND MELT AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL VA
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 1-3 IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH HIGHER AMTS
ALONG THE RIDGES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS NW
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW DOWN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 6-8 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE AN OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE I-81 AND I-95
CORRIDORS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SAME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME
REENFORCED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY MON AFTERNOON WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX MOST
TAF SITES EXCEPT ALL SNOW AT KMRB.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND PRECIP RATES MON NIGHT REMAIN IN
QUESTION ATTM.

-SNSH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
OVER THE LOWER BAY AND POTOMAC BUT MODEL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 06Z MON THEN DIMINISH AS DEEP COASTAL LOW MOVES
FURTHER AWAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS ARE UP TO HALF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ON
THE WATERS THIS EVENING. NORTH FLOW BECOMES SELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WATER LEVELS INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SENSITIVE SITES IS LIKELY AROUND
HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ501-502.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ501>506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...HAS/LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 071953
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFYS OFF THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND
EVENTUALLY OUT TO SEA. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEFORE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE APPALACHAINS MONDAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON- EVENING AS SNOW IN THE MTNS AND RAIN
IN THE LOW LANDS. TEMPS WILL REACH THE 40S IN THE LOW LANDS BY
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SUNSETS MONDAY NIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WHEN SNOW
BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS TEMPS BEGIN TO RISE
TUESDAY IN THE LOW LANDS AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SNOWFALL WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE UNLESS BANDING OCCURS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS STATED MANY TIMES WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE AND QPF
FIELDS DIFFER IN MODEL GUIDANCE AS MOST OF THE BANDING ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THE STRONG 925- 850MB EASTERLY JET
ONCE THE SFC LOW FORMS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME LOCATION AND
EXACT TIMING OF THESE INSTABILITY BANDS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT THE
BEST TIMING WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST IS THERMALLY BASED WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS HIGHER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE COLDER FOR SNOW
SUCH AS NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...TEMPS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TUESDAY AND SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE AND MELT AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO CENTRAL VA
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 1-3 IN THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH HIGHER AMTS
ALONG THE RIDGES.

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY ACROSS THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AS NW
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRAW DOWN MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THIS AREA
WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 6-8 INCHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE AN OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE I-81 AND I-95
CORRIDORS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SAME RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BECOME
REENFORCED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO HIGHS IN THE
TEENS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM AT DCA/BWI/MTN MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT. SN/RA IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SN BY MID-NIGHT.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR VSBYS/CIGS. PREVAILING -SN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF
+SN ACROSS MRB/BWI/MTN.

-SNSH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVERHEAD. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

MVFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY
TERMINALS. WINDS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5
TO 10 KNOTS GUSTS 15 KNOTS. &&

.MARINE...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A SCA
IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF SANDY POINT AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. WINDS WILL DIMINSH TUESDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OUT TO
SEA. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME MARINE HEADLINES
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WEST BECOMING
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS 20 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST 15 TO
20 KNOTS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532-533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 071456
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
956 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS MORNING. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NE ONCE
MIXING INITIATES LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WELL NORTH OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED...WITH THE THICKEST
CLOUD COVER MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD. DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A POTENT
TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY INTO A COASTAL LOW LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE LOW OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA.
THESE MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY IN THE VALLEYS SO
ANY PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WILL BE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETUP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO SETUP FROM NEAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND
NORTH AND WEST OVER THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA...THEN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY BEFORE REACHING WESTERN MARYLAND.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY
IN...THIS MEANS THAT THE MAIN PTYPE WOULD BE SNOW EXCEPT PERHAPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND RIGHT ALONG THE BAY WHERE WARMER AIR
FROM THE WATERS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. DESPITE THE BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE...THERE ARE STILL SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AND WITH
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS VS. LITTLE OR
NO SNOW OVERHEAD...ANY SLIGHT CHANGE TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

AS OF NOW...THE LATEST FORECAST LEANS TOWARD A CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GUIDANCE WHICH ALLOW FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND PERHAPS INTO THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
AGAIN...WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT WITH THE GRADIENT OVERHEAD ANY
SLIGHT CHANGE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

ANOTHER NOTE IS THAT 700MB-500MB MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAIRLY STEEP...6-8 DEGREES C/KM ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF THE
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT MAY CAUSE HEAVIER BURSTS
OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR ANY
LEFTOVER SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY 12Z WED...00Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
HANDLING OF DEPARTING SFC/COASTAL LOW AND DEPTH OF BROAD UPPER LVL
TROUGH. ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TURNS FROM PCPN
THREATS AND LOOKS MORE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH POTENTIAL WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONCERNS...ESP THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH
WED AND THURS. AXIS OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDED SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH THE BASE SETTLED OVER THE CAROLINAS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTHERN MD)
CONTINUES WED DESPITE DRYING AT THE SFC. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS MID WEEK ON THE WNW
FLOW...AMOUNTING TO AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES. ANY SNOW TO THE
EAST WILL GENERALLY AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEGREES CELSIUS WED-THURS...RESULTING IN LOWS
REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WED NIGHT AND HIGHS ON THURS IN THE
20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S...ESP
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WED NIGHT AND STAYING BELOW THRU THURS NIGHT.
THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

BRIEF INCREASE IN TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION...LEADING TO BRIEF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER PLUNGE OF THE
FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL
DETERMINE HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH GOES...AND AS SUCH...HOW EXACTLY COLD
IT GETS THIS COMING WEEKEND. ECMWF THE MUCH COLDER OF THE
SOLUTIONS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20 DEGREES CELSIUS. USING THE
00Z SUPERBLEND FOR NOW...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE WITH
TEMPS. EVEN SO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY LVL VALUES LOOK TO BE PSBL
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS DURING
THIS TIME. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. PTYPE OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
GUSTY NW WINDS WED AND THURS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS TO
LESS THAN 12 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD SUBSIDE MONDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC WED THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA ARE PSBL WED...BCMG MORE LIKELY
THURS ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. ALL WATERS DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532-533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 070835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD WHILE LOW PRESSURE
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WELL NORTH OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED...WITH THE THICKEST
CLOUD COVER MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD. DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A POTENT
TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY INTO A COASTAL LOW LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA INTO THE LOW OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA.
THESE MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY IN THE VALLEYS SO
ANY PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WILL BE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE
OCCLUDED FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SETUP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE BOUNDARY IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO SETUP FROM NEAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND
NORTH AND WEST OVER THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA...THEN TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY BEFORE REACHING WESTERN MARYLAND.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING ITS WAY
IN...THIS MEANS THAT THE MAIN PTYPE WOULD BE SNOW EXCEPT PERHAPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND RIGHT ALONG THE BAY WHERE WARMER AIR
FROM THE WATERS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT. DESPITE THE BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE...THERE ARE STILL SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AND WITH
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS VS. LITTLE OR
NO SNOW OVERHEAD...ANY SLIGHT CHANGE TO WHERE THIS BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

AS OF NOW...THE LATEST FORECAST LEANS TOWARD A CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GUIDANCE WHICH ALLOW FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND PERHAPS INTO THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER.
AGAIN...WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT WITH THE GRADIENT OVERHEAD ANY
SLIGHT CHANGE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

ANOTHER NOTE IS THAT 700MB-500MB MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAIRLY STEEP...6-8 DEGREES C/KM ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF THE
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT MAY CAUSE HEAVIER BURSTS
OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR ANY
LEFTOVER SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY 12Z WED...00Z MODEL SUITE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
HANDLING OF DEPARTING SFC/COASTAL LOW AND DEPTH OF BROAD UPPER LVL
TROUGH. ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TURNS FROM PCPN
THREATS AND LOOKS MORE TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH POTENTIAL WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONCERNS...ESP THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SFC HIGH
WED AND THURS. AXIS OF THE UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDED SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH THE BASE SETTLED OVER THE CAROLINAS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN SOUTHERN MD)
CONTINUES WED DESPITE DRYING AT THE SFC. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS MID WEEK ON THE WNW
FLOW...AMOUNTING TO AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF INCHES. ANY SNOW TO THE
EAST WILL GENERALLY AMOUNT TO LESS THAN AN INCH. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO
BETWEEN -10 AND -15 DEGREES CELSIUS WED-THURS...RESULTING IN LOWS
REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS WED NIGHT AND HIGHS ON THURS IN THE
20S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20S...ESP
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO WED NIGHT AND STAYING BELOW THRU THURS NIGHT.
THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

BRIEF INCREASE IN TEMPS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION...LEADING TO BRIEF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...CLOSED LOW REMAINS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER PLUNGE OF THE
FLOW AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS OVER THE WESTERN HALF WILL
DETERMINE HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH GOES...AND AS SUCH...HOW EXACTLY COLD
IT GETS THIS COMING WEEKEND. ECMWF THE MUCH COLDER OF THE
SOLUTIONS...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS BELOW -20 DEGREES CELSIUS. USING THE
00Z SUPERBLEND FOR NOW...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE WITH
TEMPS. EVEN SO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY LVL VALUES LOOK TO BE PSBL
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS DURING
THIS TIME. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. PTYPE OF RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIX
SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
GUSTY NW WINDS WED AND THURS...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL WEAKEN THE WINDS TO
LESS THAN 12 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE GRADIENT SHOULD SUBSIDE MONDAY BUT LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIME.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC WED THRU THURS NIGHT. SCA ARE PSBL WED...BCMG MORE LIKELY
THURS ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC. ALL WATERS DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ532-533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 070228 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL TEND TO THIN OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOWARD MORNING. HOWEVER..HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
STATES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUN ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ANYWHERE IN OUR
FCST AREA BUT DID INCREASE THE SKY COVER SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPDATE ON WINTRY WX MON AND TUE...P-TYPE ISSUES EARLY AND LACK OF
A WELL DEFINED LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INFLOW OF GULF OR
ATLC MOISTURE STRONGLY SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A MINOR SNOW EVENT.
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR AN ALL SNOW
EVENT MON AND MON NIGHT SO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR WET SNOW
LIKELY. COLUMN DOES NOT GET SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW
UNTIL TUE AND BY THAT TIME THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY. ONE NOTEWORTHY ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD SUPPORT
CONVECTION. SEVERAL STABILITY INDICES SUCH AS K...LIFTED AND
SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY ENHANCE
PRECIP RATES. AT THIS TIME...EVERYTHING POINTS OUT TO ADVISORY
LEVEL EVENT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA WHILE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD MONDAY AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE U30S/L40S AND L30S IN THE
MTNS MONDAY. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD MOST OF IT WILL BE RAIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRANSFERS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MOISTURE AND QPF FIELDS AND THEREFORE
UNCERNTAINITY EXISTS IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND L30S NEAR I-95 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND FOR THAT REASON PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW INTO
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH 3-6 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF
I-95 AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METROS.
AT THIS TIME...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW TO
MEDIUM AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW TO FORM
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC PRODUCING MORE ACCUMULATION. AT
THIS TIME...LOCATION OF THESE BANDS COULD EXIST ANYWHERE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NEWLY-DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE COAST OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING BEHIND A LITTLE MORE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN EASTERN AREAS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE WESTERN ZONES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WELL.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST. AN OCCASIONAL DAYTIME SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DIURNAL
DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW...IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND RAIN OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BECOMING ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBY AND
CIGS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. &&

MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS NORTHWEST BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME NE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST
BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 070228 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL TEND TO THIN OUT OVERNIGHT LEADING
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOWARD MORNING. HOWEVER..HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
STATES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUN ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ANYWHERE IN OUR
FCST AREA BUT DID INCREASE THE SKY COVER SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

UPDATE ON WINTRY WX MON AND TUE...P-TYPE ISSUES EARLY AND LACK OF
A WELL DEFINED LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INFLOW OF GULF OR
ATLC MOISTURE STRONGLY SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A MINOR SNOW EVENT.
LOW-LEVEL TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR AN ALL SNOW
EVENT MON AND MON NIGHT SO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR WET SNOW
LIKELY. COLUMN DOES NOT GET SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW
UNTIL TUE AND BY THAT TIME THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING AS WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY. ONE NOTEWORTHY ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM IS VERY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD SUPPORT
CONVECTION. SEVERAL STABILITY INDICES SUCH AS K...LIFTED AND
SHOWALTER INDICES SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY ENHANCE
PRECIP RATES. AT THIS TIME...EVERYTHING POINTS OUT TO ADVISORY
LEVEL EVENT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA WHILE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD MONDAY AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE U30S/L40S AND L30S IN THE
MTNS MONDAY. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD MOST OF IT WILL BE RAIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRANSFERS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MOISTURE AND QPF FIELDS AND THEREFORE
UNCERNTAINITY EXISTS IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND L30S NEAR I-95 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND FOR THAT REASON PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW INTO
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH 3-6 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF
I-95 AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METROS.
AT THIS TIME...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW TO
MEDIUM AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW TO FORM
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC PRODUCING MORE ACCUMULATION. AT
THIS TIME...LOCATION OF THESE BANDS COULD EXIST ANYWHERE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NEWLY-DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE COAST OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING BEHIND A LITTLE MORE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN EASTERN AREAS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE WESTERN ZONES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WELL.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST. AN OCCASIONAL DAYTIME SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DIURNAL
DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW...IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND RAIN OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BECOMING ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBY AND
CIGS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. &&

MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS NORTHWEST BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME NE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST
BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW




000
FXUS61 KLWX 061951
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

AN UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CAUSE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. MIN TEMPS IN
THE 20S EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY FORM OFF THE
SE US COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ALONG THE GULF STREAM TOWARDS CAPE
HATTERAS SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE COASTAL LOW
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE SPARED FROM ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THE COASTAL LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA WHILE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD MONDAY AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE U30S/L40S AND L30S IN THE
MTNS MONDAY. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD MOST OF IT WILL BE RAIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRANSFERS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MOISTURE AND QPF FIELDS AND THEREFORE
UNCERNTAINITY EXISTS IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND L30S NEAR I-95 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND FOR THAT REASON PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW INTO
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH 3-6 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF
I-95 AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METROS.
AT THIS TIME...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW TO
MEDIUM AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW TO FORM
ACROSSTHE MID-ATLANTIC PRODUCING MORE ACCUMULATION. AT
THISTIME...LOCATION OF THESE BANDS COULD EXIST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NEWLY-DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE COAST OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOT BEFORE LEAVING BEHIND A LITTLE MORE SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN EASTERN AREAS ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE WESTERN ZONES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WELL.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL
UPSLOPE SNOW EXPECTED IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHILE GRADUAL
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO THE EAST. AN OCCASIONAL DAYTIME SNOW
SHOWER OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN ZONES DUE TO DIURNAL
DIFFERENCES. FOR NOW...IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH FLATTENS OUT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SCOOT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW
SHOULD JUST SPREAD ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
SUPPORT WILL PIVOT EAST WITH A FIRM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
TO FOLLOW IT. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...THIS TROUGH
WILL MAINLY SUPPORT ARCTIC AIR SURGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY AND RAIN OR SNOW IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BECOMING ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. VSBY AND
CIGS RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. &&

MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN
PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS NORTHWEST BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME NE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

NO MARINE HAZARDS TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS NORTHWEST
BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTS 20 KNOTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW





000
FXUS61 KLWX 061431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
931 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
CLIMB INTO THE 40S TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. A POTENT JETMAX AROUND THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND OUR AREA WILL END UP CLOSE
TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. A BKN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY AS A RESULT. SINCE THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE THIN THERE SHOULD
BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
BKN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE JETMAX HEADS OUT TO SEA. THE COMBINATION
OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY...DESPITE SUNSHINE. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO AREA WELL NORTH OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. AGAIN THE AREA WILL REMAIN
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...SO IT WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A POTENT
TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY INTO A COASTAL LOW LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR AREA TO THE LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA.
THESE MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DETAILS OF
EXACTLY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS. THE FIRST SCENARIO IS THAT THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR OUR AREA TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT. IN OTHER WORDS
THAT SETS UP TO OUR NORTH. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST...CAUSING THE PTYPE TO BE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY...AND MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SECOND SCENARIO IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS FARTHER SOUTH
AND WE ARE IMPACTED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT. COLDER
AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WOULD ALSO WRAP AROUND
INTO THIS SYSTEM DUE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. THE GEFS MEAN AND GFS DETERMINISTIC LEAN TOWARD SCENARIO 1
WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF LEAN
TOWARD SCENARIO 2. THE NAM IS LEANING BETWEEN THE TWO SETS AND THE
INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS ARE SPLIT AS WELL. THE LATEST FORECAST
BLENDS MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS TOGETHER...BUT DETAILS WILL HAVE TO
BE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ON THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW PIVOTING THRU THE REGION
BEGINNING MONDAY...BUT IMPACTING THE MID- ATLANTIC FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE COMING WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH
WILL DICTATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL BRING THE PCPN CHANCES TO THE CWA FOR TUES INTO WED. THE
PLACEMENT WILL ALSO DETERMINE ANY ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN
DEVELOPMENT FROM ENERGY ALOFT. AS SUCH...NOT MAKING TOO MANY
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTR 12Z TUES UNTIL THE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL TURN TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST TUES...AND WILL LAST THRU WED WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD. AS OF NOW THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUES NIGHT-WED...DRYING UP BY WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. NW FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN COULD POTENTIALLY
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

00Z MODEL SUITE TRENDING COOLER WITH THE TEMPS...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
IN THE 30/40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS/20S. SOME BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WED NIGHT BUT ATTM
NOT ANTICIPATING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO
SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL TUES-WED WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS BY THURS LASTING INTO FRI. GUSTY W WINDS PSBL WED-FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. POTENT
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

ANOTHER LOW COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON TUES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH
INCRSG CHCS WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 060801
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. A POTENT JETMAX AROUND THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND OUR AREA WILL END UP CLOSE
TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. A BKN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY AS A RESULT. SINCE THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE THIN THERE SHOULD
BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
BKN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE JETMAX HEADS OUT TO SEA. THE COMBINATION
OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY...DESPITE SUNSHINE. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO AREA WELL NORTH OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. AGAIN THE AREA WILL REMAIN
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...SO IT WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A POTENT
TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY INTO A COASTAL LOW LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR AREA TO THE LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA.
THESE MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DETAILS OF
EXACTLY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS. THE FIRST SCENARIO IS THAT THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR OUR AREA TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT. IN OTHER WORDS
THAT SETS UP TO OUR NORTH. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST...CAUSING THE PTYPE TO BE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY...AND MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SECOND SCENARIO IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS FARTHER SOUTH
AND WE ARE IMPACTED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT. COLDER
AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WOULD ALSO WRAP AROUND
INTO THIS SYSTEM DUE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. THE GEFS MEAN AND GFS DETERMINISTIC LEAN TOWARD SCENARIO 1
WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF LEAN
TOWARD SCENARIO 2. THE NAM IS LEANING BETWEEN THE TWO SETS AND THE
INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS ARE SPLIT AS WELL. THE LATEST FORECAST
BLENDS MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS TOGETHER...BUT DETAILS WILL HAVE TO
BE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ON THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW PIVOTING THRU THE REGION
BEGINNING MONDAY...BUT IMPACTING THE MID- ATLANTIC FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE COMING WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH
WILL DICTATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL BRING THE PCPN CHANCES TO THE CWA FOR TUES INTO WED. THE
PLACEMENT WILL ALSO DETERMINE ANY ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN
DEVELOPMENT FROM ENERGY ALOFT. AS SUCH...NOT MAKING TOO MANY
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTR 12Z TUES UNTIL THE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL TURN TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST TUES...AND WILL LAST THRU WED WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD. AS OF NOW THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUES NIGHT-WED...DRYING UP BY WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. NW FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN COULD POTENTIALLY
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

00Z MODEL SUITE TRENDING COOLER WITH THE TEMPS...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
IN THE 30/40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS/20S. SOME BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WED NIGHT BUT ATTM
NOT ANTICIPATING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO
SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL TUES-WED WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS BY THURS LASTING INTO FRI. GUSTY W WINDS PSBL WED-FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. POTENT
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

ANOTHER LOW COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON TUES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH
INCRSG CHCS WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 060801
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
301 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
DRY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY CONDITIONS. A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES. A POTENT JETMAX AROUND THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND OUR AREA WILL END UP CLOSE
TO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. A BKN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY AS A RESULT. SINCE THE CLOUD DECK WILL BE THIN THERE SHOULD
BE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
ALONG THE RIDGES TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
BKN DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT AS THE JETMAX HEADS OUT TO SEA. THE COMBINATION
OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES LATE TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY AND
SEASONABLY CHILLY...DESPITE SUNSHINE. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO AREA WELL NORTH OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE OUT
TO SEA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. AGAIN THE AREA WILL REMAIN
IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...SO IT WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLY
CHILLY.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN SETS UP MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A POTENT
TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIG SOUTH INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY INTO A COASTAL LOW LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST NEAR OUR AREA TO THE LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA.
THESE MECHANISMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER
OUR AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DETAILS OF
EXACTLY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS. THE FIRST SCENARIO IS THAT THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW DOES NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR OUR AREA TO BE
INFLUENCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT. IN OTHER WORDS
THAT SETS UP TO OUR NORTH. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTH AND EAST...CAUSING THE PTYPE TO BE RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY...AND MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SECOND SCENARIO IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS FARTHER SOUTH
AND WE ARE IMPACTED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUDED FRONT. COLDER
AIR IS ABLE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WOULD ALSO WRAP AROUND
INTO THIS SYSTEM DUE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. THIS WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. THE GEFS MEAN AND GFS DETERMINISTIC LEAN TOWARD SCENARIO 1
WHILE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF LEAN
TOWARD SCENARIO 2. THE NAM IS LEANING BETWEEN THE TWO SETS AND THE
INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS ARE SPLIT AS WELL. THE LATEST FORECAST
BLENDS MOST OF THESE SOLUTIONS TOGETHER...BUT DETAILS WILL HAVE TO
BE FINE TUNED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ON THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER LVL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW PIVOTING THRU THE REGION
BEGINNING MONDAY...BUT IMPACTING THE MID- ATLANTIC FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE COMING WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH
WILL DICTATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OFF THE COAST THAT
WILL BRING THE PCPN CHANCES TO THE CWA FOR TUES INTO WED. THE
PLACEMENT WILL ALSO DETERMINE ANY ENHANCEMENT TO THE PCPN
DEVELOPMENT FROM ENERGY ALOFT. AS SUCH...NOT MAKING TOO MANY
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTR 12Z TUES UNTIL THE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL TURN TO SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST TUES...AND WILL LAST THRU WED WITH THE TROUGH
OVERHEAD. AS OF NOW THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS TO
SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUES NIGHT-WED...DRYING UP BY WED
NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW EXITS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST. NW FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN COULD POTENTIALLY
KEEP SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

00Z MODEL SUITE TRENDING COOLER WITH THE TEMPS...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
IN THE 30/40S AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS/20S. SOME BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WED NIGHT BUT ATTM
NOT ANTICIPATING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY LEAD TO
SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL TUES-WED WITH SNOW AND/OR RAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS BY THURS LASTING INTO FRI. GUSTY W WINDS PSBL WED-FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. POTENT
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

ANOTHER LOW COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME...BUT SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

SCA CONDITIONS PSBL ON TUES ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...WITH
INCRSG CHCS WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK ON ALL WATERS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/SEARS
AVIATION...BJL/SEARS
MARINE...BJL/SEARS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 060217
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY DIMINISHED THIS
EVENING...ALREADY BECOMING CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY TUMBLE...ALREADY NEARING FORECAST
LOWS IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. MID-EVENING UPDATE WILL
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN CENTERS. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE FOR
THE NIGHT IS INCREASING CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
JET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 40S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE US SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THE
COASTAL LOW OUT TO SEA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY NOT BE
IMPACTED SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD SPAWN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OR
CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS NEWLY FORMED LOW COULD
HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR REGION...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR TO SUPPORT THE NEW LOW. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ONE SIMILARITY WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS MODEL WITH THIS
NEW LOW IS BOTH CLOSE OFF THE NEW LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY BEFORE PIVOTING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GETS HIT WITH MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION. AT THIS TIME...THE EUROPEAN MODEL CLOSES THE LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE GFS MODEL CLOSES THE
LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DELAWARE BAY...FARTHER NORTH. WE
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN OUR REGION TUESDAY THEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ACROSS THE REGION...AND OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXIST
IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PUNCHING INTO THE
REGION. A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER MAY BE NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE...COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY WITH CHILLY AND DRY AIR.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THAN THE EUROPEAN. AT
BEST...THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE WEATHER SINCE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL TAKES A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT...VFR EXPECTED. NW WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE 6 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY...BECOMING
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE (AND
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT).

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. WINDS EAST BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT SNOW. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP SCA...AS WINDS ARE NOW GENERALLY BELOW 15
KT...AND BELOW 10 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT NW FLOW
WILL BECOME S ON SATURDAY...THEN SWING AROUND TO THE N OR NE ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP. THE POTOMAC RIVER AT EDWARDS
FERRY IS SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...ADS/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/HAS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/HAS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...ADS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 052311
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
611 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE HAS RAPIDLY MOVED NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES. NW WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BECOMING 10-15 MPH TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
20S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 40S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE US SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THE
COASTAL LOW OUT TO SEA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY NOT BE
IMPACTED SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD SPAWN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OR
CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS NEWLY FORMED LOW COULD
HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR REGION...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR TO SUPPORT THE NEW LOW. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ONE SIMILARITY WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS MODEL WITH THIS
NEW LOW IS BOTH CLOSE OFF THE NEW LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY BEFORE PIVOTING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GETS HIT WITH MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION. AT THIS TIME...THE EUROPEAN MODEL CLOSES THE LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE GFS MODEL CLOSES THE
LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DELAWARE BAY...FARTHER NORTH. WE
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN OUR REGION TUESDAY THEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ACROSS THE REGION...AND OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXIST
IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PUNCHING INTO THE
REGION. A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER MAY BE NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE...COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY WITH CHILLY AND DRY AIR.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THAN THE EUROPEAN. AT
BEST...THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE WEATHER SINCE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL TAKES A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. NW WINDS
15-20 GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. WINDS EAST BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT SNOW. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. SCA CONTINUE ON THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
THROUGH EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS COMING TO AN END AS WATER LEVELS DROP
BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING ON
THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC AT EDWARDS FERRY. PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNING
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...HAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 052311
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
611 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE HAS RAPIDLY MOVED NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES. NW WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BECOMING 10-15 MPH TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
20S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 40S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE US SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THE
COASTAL LOW OUT TO SEA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY NOT BE
IMPACTED SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD SPAWN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OR
CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS NEWLY FORMED LOW COULD
HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR REGION...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR TO SUPPORT THE NEW LOW. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ONE SIMILARITY WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS MODEL WITH THIS
NEW LOW IS BOTH CLOSE OFF THE NEW LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY BEFORE PIVOTING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GETS HIT WITH MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION. AT THIS TIME...THE EUROPEAN MODEL CLOSES THE LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE GFS MODEL CLOSES THE
LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DELAWARE BAY...FARTHER NORTH. WE
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN OUR REGION TUESDAY THEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ACROSS THE REGION...AND OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXIST
IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PUNCHING INTO THE
REGION. A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER MAY BE NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE...COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY WITH CHILLY AND DRY AIR.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THAN THE EUROPEAN. AT
BEST...THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE WEATHER SINCE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL TAKES A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. NW WINDS
15-20 GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. WINDS EAST BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT SNOW. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. SCA CONTINUE ON THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
THROUGH EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS COMING TO AN END AS WATER LEVELS DROP
BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING ON
THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC AT EDWARDS FERRY. PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNING
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...HAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 052311
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
611 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE HAS RAPIDLY MOVED NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES. NW WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BECOMING 10-15 MPH TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
20S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 40S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE US SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THE
COASTAL LOW OUT TO SEA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY NOT BE
IMPACTED SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD SPAWN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OR
CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS NEWLY FORMED LOW COULD
HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR REGION...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR TO SUPPORT THE NEW LOW. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ONE SIMILARITY WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS MODEL WITH THIS
NEW LOW IS BOTH CLOSE OFF THE NEW LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY BEFORE PIVOTING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL DETERMINE
WHETHER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GETS HIT WITH MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION. AT THIS TIME...THE EUROPEAN MODEL CLOSES THE LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE GFS MODEL CLOSES THE
LOW NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE DELAWARE BAY...FARTHER NORTH. WE
HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN OUR REGION TUESDAY THEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW WILL SLOWLY
PIVOT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...ACROSS THE REGION...AND OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY EXIST
IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT PUNCHING INTO THE
REGION. A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER MAY BE NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE...COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THURSDAY WITH CHILLY AND DRY AIR.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THAN THE EUROPEAN. AT
BEST...THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE WEATHER SINCE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL TAKES A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. NW WINDS
15-20 GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. WINDS EAST BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT SNOW. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. SCA CONTINUE ON THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
THROUGH EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS COMING TO AN END AS WATER LEVELS DROP
BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING ON
THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC AT EDWARDS FERRY. PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNING
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...HAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 051939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LOW PRESSURE HAS RAPIDLY MOVED
NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES. NW WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BECOMING 10-15 MPH TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
20S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 40S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE SE US SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW OUT TO
SEA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY NOT BE IMPACTED SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...RIVER FLOODING IS COMING
TO AN END AS WATER LEVELS DROP BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING
IS STILL OCCURRING ON THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC BETWEEN AT EDWARDS FERRY.
PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNING FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. NW WINDS
15-20 GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. SCA CONTINUE ON THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
THROUGH EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

NO MARINE HAZARDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS COMING TO AN END AS WATER LEVELS DROP
BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING ON
THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC AT EDWARDS FERRY. PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNING
FOR MORE INFORMATION.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...HAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 051939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LOW PRESSURE HAS RAPIDLY MOVED
NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES. NW WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BECOMING 10-15 MPH TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
20S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 40S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE SE US SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW OUT TO
SEA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY NOT BE IMPACTED SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...RIVER FLOODING IS COMING
TO AN END AS WATER LEVELS DROP BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING
IS STILL OCCURRING ON THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC BETWEEN AT EDWARDS FERRY.
PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNING FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. NW WINDS
15-20 GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. SCA CONTINUE ON THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
THROUGH EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

NO MARINE HAZARDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS COMING TO AN END AS WATER LEVELS DROP
BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING ON
THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC AT EDWARDS FERRY. PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNING
FOR MORE INFORMATION.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...HAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 051939
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
239 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...LOW PRESSURE HAS RAPIDLY MOVED
NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES. NW WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BECOMING 10-15 MPH TONIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
20S OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 40S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE SE US SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVERHEAD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THE COASTAL LOW OUT TO
SEA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY NOT BE IMPACTED SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...RIVER FLOODING IS COMING
TO AN END AS WATER LEVELS DROP BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING
IS STILL OCCURRING ON THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC BETWEEN AT EDWARDS FERRY.
PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNING FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. NW WINDS
15-20 GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
TO 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. SCA CONTINUE ON THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
THROUGH EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.

NO MARINE HAZARDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS COMING TO AN END AS WATER LEVELS DROP
BELOW THEIR FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING ON
THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC AT EDWARDS FERRY. PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNING
FOR MORE INFORMATION.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW
HYDROLOGY...HAS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051528
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPEED AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW
HAS LED TO GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH THIS
MORNING. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS HAS ALSO ALLOWED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METRO FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AND WILL SLOWLY RISE TO THE LOW 40S BY AFTERNOON.
IF ANY ACCUMULATION FORMS IT WOULD LIKELY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.
SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITES TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES
SO CAUTION IS STILL NECESSARY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WHILE
TRAVELING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WINDS WILL STAY
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING IS MOVING INTO THE REGION
AND SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA IF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY AND 40S TO LOW 50S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S...COLDEST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
QUITE FAR TO THE SOUTH AND A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP.

THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OVER OUR AREA LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL GET BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...THEN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
BEFORE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...THEN LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE DCA/BWI/MTN REGION. MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTERWARD...WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUBVFR CONDITIONS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH A COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
IF THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...THEN HEAVIER
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING
BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 35
KNOTS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING SO HAVE UPGRADED THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE AND LOWER POTOMAC TO GALE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. AFTER 17Z (12 NOON)...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK TO SCA CRITERIA OVER ALL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SCA CONDITIONS ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. NO MARINE
HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. DETAILS ON HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOODING IS COMING TO AN END THIS MORNING AS WATER LEVELS
DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGES. MINOR FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING ON THE
MAINSTEM SHENANDOAH AT MILLVILLE...AND THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC
BETWEEN PORT OF ROCKS AND EDWARDS FERRY.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LITTLE FALLS GAUGE HAS CRESTED UNDER FLOOD STAGE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL TODAY. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/MM
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/MM/HAS
MARINE...BJL/MM/HAS
HYDROLOGY...HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 051120
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
620 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM...BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE ADVISORY ON THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN SIDES AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...AND WEBCAMS
INDICATE WET ROADWAYS. WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN MARYLAND WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES REMAIN AND
WEBCAMS INDICATING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. HIGHEST TOTALS
EXPECTED IN ST MARYS AND CALVERT COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL QUICKLY TRACK FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO A POSITION SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 18Z TODAY.
PRECIP HAS BLOSSOMED NICELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WIDESPREAD
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW (AS WELL AS SOME BRIEF SLEET) BEING
OBSERVED FROM ABOUT A CHARLOTTESVILLE-LEESBURG- FREDERICK LINE AND
EAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL SITES AS OF 3
AM...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SO FAR. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...SHOULD SEE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. PRECIP WILL THEN SHUT OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN
6 AM AND 9 AM FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES WILL AFFECT EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...FROM THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND DOWN THROUGH CALVERT
AND SAINT MARYS COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS...INHIBITING BETTER SNOW
RATES.

WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS ROAD TEMPERATURES...STILL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY ON
GRASSY SURFACES...HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT A LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED SURFACES. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND WHERE SNOW RATES WILL BE HIGHER.

WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS IS...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1-2" LOCALLY 3" IN THE ADVISORY...WITH A
COATING TO A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ENDS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WONT GO VERY FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY AND 40S TO LOW 50S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S...COLDEST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
QUITE FAR TO THE SOUTH AND A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP.

THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OVER OUR AREA LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL GET BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...THEN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
BEFORE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...THEN LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END...BY 13Z FOR MOST SITES...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTERWARD...WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUBVFR CONDITIONS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH A COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
IF THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...THEN HEAVIER
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING
BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 35
KNOTS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING SO HAVE UPGRADED THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE AND LOWER POTOMAC TO GALE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. AFTER 17Z (12 NOON)...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK TO SCA CRITERIA OVER ALL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SCA CONDITIONS ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. NO MARINE
HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. DETAILS ON HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS STILL ONGOING ON THE MONOCACY...THE MAINSTEM
SHENANDOAH AT MILLVILLE...AND THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC BETWEEN PORT
OF ROCKS AND GREAT FALLS.

THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT WILLL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
STREAMS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS AROUND WASHINGTON DC REMAIN 2+ FEET ABOVE ASTRO
NORMS OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS SHOULD PUSH A BIT OF THE TIDAL INFLUENCE
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL OPEN UP MORE ROOM FOR FRESHWATER
WHEN IT DOES ARRIVE...WHICH WILL BE TODAY.

FORECASTS OF THE WATER COMING DOWN THE POTOMAC HAVE FLUCTUATED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN. BASED ON THIS ALONE GEORGETOWN WOULD
EASILY REACH MINOR AGAIN THIS MORNING. BASED ON EXPERIENCE...THE
EXCESS FRESHWATER FANS OUT SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE REACHING SW DC.
AFTER MONITORING THE UPSTREAM RIVER FORECASTS AND THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE TIDAL ANOMALIES AT DC VS THE REST OF OUR WATERS...HAVE
ACHIEVED ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DC.

I/M NOT SURE IT WILL BE THAT SIMPLE THOUGH. FOR ONE THING...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FRESHWATER CONTRIBUTION WILL BE CHASING THE
HIGH TIDE DOWN RIVER. THAT IS...THE TIDE WILL BE REPLACED BY THE
FRESHWATER CREST. HAVE LENGTHENED THE TIME FRAME FROM THE TYPICAL
SCENARIO TO ACCOMMADATE FOR THIS. BASED ON THE LITTLE FALLS
FORECAST...ITS POSSIBLE THAT A MARGINAL WARNING WOULD BE NECESSARY.
THAT WOULD NEED TO BE A GAME TIME CHANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/MM
MARINE...BJL/MM
HYDROLOGY...JE/BJL/MM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 051120
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
620 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM...BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE ADVISORY ON THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN SIDES AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...AND WEBCAMS
INDICATE WET ROADWAYS. WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN MARYLAND WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES REMAIN AND
WEBCAMS INDICATING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. HIGHEST TOTALS
EXPECTED IN ST MARYS AND CALVERT COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL QUICKLY TRACK FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO A POSITION SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 18Z TODAY.
PRECIP HAS BLOSSOMED NICELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WIDESPREAD
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW (AS WELL AS SOME BRIEF SLEET) BEING
OBSERVED FROM ABOUT A CHARLOTTESVILLE-LEESBURG- FREDERICK LINE AND
EAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL SITES AS OF 3
AM...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SO FAR. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...SHOULD SEE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. PRECIP WILL THEN SHUT OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN
6 AM AND 9 AM FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES WILL AFFECT EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...FROM THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND DOWN THROUGH CALVERT
AND SAINT MARYS COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS...INHIBITING BETTER SNOW
RATES.

WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS ROAD TEMPERATURES...STILL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY ON
GRASSY SURFACES...HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT A LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED SURFACES. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND WHERE SNOW RATES WILL BE HIGHER.

WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS IS...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1-2" LOCALLY 3" IN THE ADVISORY...WITH A
COATING TO A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ENDS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WONT GO VERY FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY AND 40S TO LOW 50S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S...COLDEST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
QUITE FAR TO THE SOUTH AND A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP.

THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OVER OUR AREA LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL GET BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...THEN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
BEFORE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...THEN LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END...BY 13Z FOR MOST SITES...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTERWARD...WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUBVFR CONDITIONS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH A COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
IF THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...THEN HEAVIER
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING
BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 35
KNOTS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING SO HAVE UPGRADED THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE AND LOWER POTOMAC TO GALE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. AFTER 17Z (12 NOON)...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK TO SCA CRITERIA OVER ALL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SCA CONDITIONS ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. NO MARINE
HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. DETAILS ON HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS STILL ONGOING ON THE MONOCACY...THE MAINSTEM
SHENANDOAH AT MILLVILLE...AND THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC BETWEEN PORT
OF ROCKS AND GREAT FALLS.

THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT WILLL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
STREAMS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS AROUND WASHINGTON DC REMAIN 2+ FEET ABOVE ASTRO
NORMS OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS SHOULD PUSH A BIT OF THE TIDAL INFLUENCE
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL OPEN UP MORE ROOM FOR FRESHWATER
WHEN IT DOES ARRIVE...WHICH WILL BE TODAY.

FORECASTS OF THE WATER COMING DOWN THE POTOMAC HAVE FLUCTUATED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN. BASED ON THIS ALONE GEORGETOWN WOULD
EASILY REACH MINOR AGAIN THIS MORNING. BASED ON EXPERIENCE...THE
EXCESS FRESHWATER FANS OUT SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE REACHING SW DC.
AFTER MONITORING THE UPSTREAM RIVER FORECASTS AND THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE TIDAL ANOMALIES AT DC VS THE REST OF OUR WATERS...HAVE
ACHIEVED ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DC.

I/M NOT SURE IT WILL BE THAT SIMPLE THOUGH. FOR ONE THING...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FRESHWATER CONTRIBUTION WILL BE CHASING THE
HIGH TIDE DOWN RIVER. THAT IS...THE TIDE WILL BE REPLACED BY THE
FRESHWATER CREST. HAVE LENGTHENED THE TIME FRAME FROM THE TYPICAL
SCENARIO TO ACCOMMADATE FOR THIS. BASED ON THE LITTLE FALLS
FORECAST...ITS POSSIBLE THAT A MARGINAL WARNING WOULD BE NECESSARY.
THAT WOULD NEED TO BE A GAME TIME CHANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/MM
MARINE...BJL/MM
HYDROLOGY...JE/BJL/MM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL





000
FXUS61 KLWX 051120
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
620 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOW
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 615 AM...BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE ADVISORY ON THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN SIDES AS SNOW COMES TO AN END...AND WEBCAMS
INDICATE WET ROADWAYS. WILL LET ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN MARYLAND WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES REMAIN AND
WEBCAMS INDICATING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION. HIGHEST TOTALS
EXPECTED IN ST MARYS AND CALVERT COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL QUICKLY TRACK FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO A POSITION SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 18Z TODAY.
PRECIP HAS BLOSSOMED NICELY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WIDESPREAD
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW (AS WELL AS SOME BRIEF SLEET) BEING
OBSERVED FROM ABOUT A CHARLOTTESVILLE-LEESBURG- FREDERICK LINE AND
EAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL SITES AS OF 3
AM...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SO FAR. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...SHOULD SEE JUST ABOUT EVERYONE
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. PRECIP WILL THEN SHUT OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN
6 AM AND 9 AM FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES WILL AFFECT EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND...FROM THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA AND DOWN THROUGH CALVERT
AND SAINT MARYS COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS...INHIBITING BETTER SNOW
RATES.

WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS ROAD TEMPERATURES...STILL
ABOVE FREEZING...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY ON
GRASSY SURFACES...HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT A LIGHT SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED SURFACES. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MARYLAND WHERE SNOW RATES WILL BE HIGHER.

WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AS IS...WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1-2" LOCALLY 3" IN THE ADVISORY...WITH A
COATING TO A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE.

SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ENDS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WONT GO VERY FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
STAY WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY AND 40S TO LOW 50S SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S...COLDEST TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
QUITE FAR TO THE SOUTH AND A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP.

THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OVER OUR AREA LATER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS AS TO HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL GET BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. IF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS FARTHER SOUTH AND THE
COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST...THEN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
BEFORE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...THEN LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THIS
TIME.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND ASSOCIATED MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END...BY 13Z FOR MOST SITES...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER. OTHERWISE...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
AFTERWARD...WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH SUBVFR CONDITIONS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH A COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA.
IF THE COASTAL LOW INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING AWAY...THEN HEAVIER
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING
BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 35
KNOTS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING SO HAVE UPGRADED THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE AND LOWER POTOMAC TO GALE WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. AFTER 17Z (12 NOON)...WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK TO SCA CRITERIA OVER ALL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SCA CONDITIONS ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. NO MARINE
HAZARDS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE WATERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. DETAILS ON HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS WEDNESDAY...BUT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING IS STILL ONGOING ON THE MONOCACY...THE MAINSTEM
SHENANDOAH AT MILLVILLE...AND THE MAINSTEM POTOMAC BETWEEN PORT
OF ROCKS AND GREAT FALLS.

THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT WILLL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
STREAMS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS AROUND WASHINGTON DC REMAIN 2+ FEET ABOVE ASTRO
NORMS OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS SHOULD PUSH A BIT OF THE TIDAL INFLUENCE
AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHICH WILL OPEN UP MORE ROOM FOR FRESHWATER
WHEN IT DOES ARRIVE...WHICH WILL BE TODAY.

FORECASTS OF THE WATER COMING DOWN THE POTOMAC HAVE FLUCTUATED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN. BASED ON THIS ALONE GEORGETOWN WOULD
EASILY REACH MINOR AGAIN THIS MORNING. BASED ON EXPERIENCE...THE
EXCESS FRESHWATER FANS OUT SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE REACHING SW DC.
AFTER MONITORING THE UPSTREAM RIVER FORECASTS AND THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE TIDAL ANOMALIES AT DC VS THE REST OF OUR WATERS...HAVE
ACHIEVED ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DC.

I/M NOT SURE IT WILL BE THAT SIMPLE THOUGH. FOR ONE THING...IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FRESHWATER CONTRIBUTION WILL BE CHASING THE
HIGH TIDE DOWN RIVER. THAT IS...THE TIDE WILL BE REPLACED BY THE
FRESHWATER CREST. HAVE LENGTHENED THE TIME FRAME FROM THE TYPICAL
SCENARIO TO ACCOMMADATE FOR THIS. BASED ON THE LITTLE FALLS
FORECAST...ITS POSSIBLE THAT A MARGINAL WARNING WOULD BE NECESSARY.
THAT WOULD NEED TO BE A GAME TIME CHANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>532-538>540.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ535-
     536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/MM
MARINE...BJL/MM
HYDROLOGY...JE/BJL/MM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities