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000
FXUS61 KLWX 201335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE
FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH
PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY.
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE
FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH
PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY.
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 200726
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
HELP USHER THAT HIGH OUT. ONE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PASS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA...PAST CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. THE
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND DURING MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...INCLUDING SOME
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTINS
WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE RIDGE THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE EAST FLOW WEAKENS AS THE HIGH SLIPS AWAY...EXPECT ANY
MORNING OVERCAST TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE TODAY AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAGGED OFF THE ATLANTIC BY EAST
FLOW...ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DCA WILL BE BATTLING POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANY LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD BREAK
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS LATE FRIDAY HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
AGAIN BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH LUNAR TIDES AND EAST WINDS ARE CREATING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES. AT THIS POINT HIGHER ANAMOIES ARE IN THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY.
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SE OVER THE WATERS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDES. MOST CONCERNING AT
THE MOMENT IS DC WATERFRONT TIDE GAUGE WHICH COULD POSSIBLY HIT
MINOR FLOODING WITH THIS MORNINGS TIDE. THE REST ARE FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...CAS/HTS
MARINE...CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 200726
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EAST OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
HELP USHER THAT HIGH OUT. ONE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AND PASS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA...PAST CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. THE
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES AND WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND DURING MONDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS...INCLUDING SOME
LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND CATOCTINS
WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE RIDGE THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE EAST FLOW WEAKENS AS THE HIGH SLIPS AWAY...EXPECT ANY
MORNING OVERCAST TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE TODAY AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS DRAGGED OFF THE ATLANTIC BY EAST
FLOW...ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT DCA WILL BE BATTLING POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANY LOWERED VSBYS AND CIGS SHOULD BREAK
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONGER WINDS LATE FRIDAY HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY
AGAIN BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH LUNAR TIDES AND EAST WINDS ARE CREATING HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TIDES. AT THIS POINT HIGHER ANAMOIES ARE IN THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY.
AS WINDS BECOME MORE SE OVER THE WATERS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDES. MOST CONCERNING AT
THE MOMENT IS DC WATERFRONT TIDE GAUGE WHICH COULD POSSIBLY HIT
MINOR FLOODING WITH THIS MORNINGS TIDE. THE REST ARE FINE FOR NOW.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...CAS/HTS
MARINE...CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 200133 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LITTLE WRINKLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING
OFF THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE OFFSHORE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
SRN ATLC. KDOX SHOWING A COASTAL FRONT DRIFTING ONSHORE AND OVER
DELMARVA RECENTLY. ELY FLOW HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM THE AFTN
HRS...W/ A DECENT STRENGTHENING OF IT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...W/ IT`S SRN PERIPHERY
SQUEEZING DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLC IS PUSHING UP AGAIN THIS NRN
TROUGH IS CAUSING THE ELY ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OF
MOIST/DRY AIR.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE
CHES BAY BUT DISSIPATING OFF WELL OVER ERN MD/W OF THE BAY. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG W/
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING INTO THE MTNS W/ SOME OVERRUNNING
EFFECTS CREATING A DECENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE APLCNS. E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...MORE OF A SCT/BKN NATURE TO THIS DECK. THE RELATIVE
INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS AND THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
MODERATE LOWS OVER THE WEST. AFTER HITTING THE L-M40S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LAST NIGHT...THESE AREAS WILL END UP ABOUT 10F DEG
WARMER...WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSER TO THEIR
LOWS FROM LAST NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS MEANS THAT
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...W/ A BUILDING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA - ESP ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA/SPREADING NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO MID-MRNG SAT...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHO
DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST LOCATIONS STILL SHOWING TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL STAY GENERALLY ELY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...GUSTING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WHICH WILL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL THOSE LEVELS UP. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS
MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT UNLIKELY UNLESS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 200133 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
933 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LITTLE WRINKLE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRUSH PAST THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH DRIFTING
OFF THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE OFFSHORE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE
SRN ATLC. KDOX SHOWING A COASTAL FRONT DRIFTING ONSHORE AND OVER
DELMARVA RECENTLY. ELY FLOW HAS BEEN ONGOING FROM THE AFTN
HRS...W/ A DECENT STRENGTHENING OF IT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. HIGH
PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...W/ IT`S SRN PERIPHERY
SQUEEZING DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLC IS PUSHING UP AGAIN THIS NRN
TROUGH IS CAUSING THE ELY ONSHORE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE OF
MOIST/DRY AIR.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE
CHES BAY BUT DISSIPATING OFF WELL OVER ERN MD/W OF THE BAY. A
HANDFUL OF SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW...ALONG W/
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKING INTO THE MTNS W/ SOME OVERRUNNING
EFFECTS CREATING A DECENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE APLCNS. E OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...MORE OF A SCT/BKN NATURE TO THIS DECK. THE RELATIVE
INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS WILL HELP
MODERATE TEMPS OVER THESE AREAS AND THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
MODERATE LOWS OVER THE WEST. AFTER HITTING THE L-M40S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LAST NIGHT...THESE AREAS WILL END UP ABOUT 10F DEG
WARMER...WHILE THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE CLOSER TO THEIR
LOWS FROM LAST NIGHT.

PREV DISC...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD
LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS MEANS THAT
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...W/ A BUILDING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA - ESP ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA/SPREADING NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO MID-MRNG SAT...BUT
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHO
DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE
GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MOST LOCATIONS STILL SHOWING TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL STAY GENERALLY ELY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...GUSTING IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WHICH WILL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL THOSE LEVELS UP. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
UP THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS
MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT BUT UNLIKELY UNLESS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/DFH








000
FXUS61 KLWX 191759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
159 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM
THIS HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBISDINCE INVERSION...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...FOR LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE LOWER 60S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...AND AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS
MEANS THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. CERTAINTY IS
LOW AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE. FOR NOW...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KCHO DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN
OFF LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. WINDS SHOULD BE A
BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/DFH
LONG TERM...BJL/DFH
AVIATION...BJL/DFH
MARINE...BJL/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 191759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
159 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM
THIS HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE
SUBISDINCE INVERSION...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...FOR LOCATIONS
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...CAUSING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO THE LOWER 60S IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...AND AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD LOWER DUE TO RISING PRESSURES OVERHEAD BETWEEN A COLD FRONT
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. WITH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...THIS
MEANS THAT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE
MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT SHOULD IN TURN
FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY OR PERHAPS
SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE
ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM
CANADA RESULTING IN DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DRY AND FALL-LIKE WEEK IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING PERSISTS ALOFT. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...THE SETUP COULD BE IDEAL ON MORE THAN ONE OCCASION FOR LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. CERTAINTY IS
LOW AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE. FOR NOW...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KCHO DURING THIS TIME. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN
OFF LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.

SUB-VFR PSBL SUN IN SPARSE COVERAGE SHWRS/TSTMS IN AFTN/EVE. WINDS
SW 10 KTS SUN. VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
FRONT W/ W WINDS 10-15 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 20 KTS PSBL SUN
NIGHT-MON...THEN N LESS 10 KTS OR LESS MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT.
MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN OVERALL SETUP AS MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES REVOLVING AROUND THE
WIND SHIFT IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL. WINDS SHOULD BE A
BIT WEAKER SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT SUBSIDES A BIT.

S FLOW AROUND 10 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT-SUN ALONG
W/ CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS SUN
EVE. FRONT AND PRECIP CLEARS THE COAST SUN NIGHT AND WINDS BECOME W
OR NW 10-15 KTS GUSTS 20 KTS. WINDS BECOME N 10 KTS MON NIGHT-WED
BEFORE VEERING AROUND TO THE E LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MIGRATES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THERE
IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL/DFH
LONG TERM...BJL/DFH
AVIATION...BJL/DFH
MARINE...BJL/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 191310
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT THE DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN
AREAS AS WELL AS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS KCHO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB AND POSSIBLY KIAD BY
SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT KCHO. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF LATER IN
THE MORNING OR PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BJL/HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 191310
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS...BUT THE DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE HIGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN
AREAS AS WELL AS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL
INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS KCHO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB AND POSSIBLY KIAD BY
SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT KCHO. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF LATER IN
THE MORNING OR PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/AEB
MARINE...BJL/HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AGAINST THE
BLUE RIDGE/VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISO-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY BRUSH NELSON-
ALBEMARLE THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LEADING TO PATCHY
GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE LINES ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS AND
CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OUT TO SEA BY EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW STRATUS TO BANK AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR SCT- BKN CIGS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB
AND POSSIBLY IAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT CHO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. E-SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS KEPT THEM BELOW AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AGAINST THE
BLUE RIDGE/VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISO-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY BRUSH NELSON-
ALBEMARLE THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LEADING TO PATCHY
GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE LINES ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS AND
CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OUT TO SEA BY EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW STRATUS TO BANK AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR SCT- BKN CIGS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB
AND POSSIBLY IAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT CHO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. E-SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS KEPT THEM BELOW AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190739
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AGAINST THE
BLUE RIDGE/VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISO-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY BRUSH NELSON-
ALBEMARLE THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LEADING TO PATCHY
GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE LINES ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS AND
CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OUT TO SEA BY EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW STRATUS TO BANK AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR SCT- BKN CIGS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB
AND POSSIBLY IAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT CHO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.

INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. E-SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS KEPT THEM BELOW AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190739
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO THIS MORNING. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY.

MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND AGAINST THE
BLUE RIDGE/VA HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. ISO-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY BRUSH NELSON-
ALBEMARLE THIS MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS
THE MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND LIGHT NRLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE HAS LED TO CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 40S. NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEWPTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S LEADING TO PATCHY
GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
MOISTURE BANKING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE LINES ACROSS THE VA HIGHLANDS AND
CENTRAL BLUE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OUT TO SEA BY EVENING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS WILL INCREASE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ON THE MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY AS IT MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. AS WITH MANY CAD
SETUPS...STRATUS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BETWEEN AN OFFSHORE TROPICAL LOW AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINED MENTION FOR
FAVORED AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS. THIS WARMER
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS NOW SHOWING A RELATIVELY NARROW
AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS POTENT SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE TIMING OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN DISCONNECTED HOWEVER...BUT A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NRLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
ALLOW STRATUS TO BANK AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR SCT- BKN CIGS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND TONIGHT REACHING MRB
AND POSSIBLY IAD BY SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS MAY BECOME IFR AT CHO
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING
AND CIGS WILL BECOME VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.

INSTABILITY DROPS OFF RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER SHEAR INCREASES SO GUSTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BEGIN A BIG EARLIER /NOW ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/
AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AIR MONDAY. SHOULD ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPING TEMPERATURE EFFECT FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE RIDGES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL
-TUESDAY...AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER
TIDAL POTOMAC AND A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ZONES. E-SE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS KEPT THEM BELOW AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED BELOW A FOOT THIS MORNING AND COASTAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190129 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AND BANK UP AGAINST THE LEE SIDE OF THE
SRN APLCNS AND THE FOOTHILLS...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SCRAPES THE
NRN EDGE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
ANOTHER DRIER AIR SURGE TO RETURN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA ARE STARTING TO DROP INTO THE M-U40S...A
GOOD SIGN THAT IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT THERE. THE STRATIFICATION
OF MOISTURE HOWEVER MAKES A DECENT-SIZED LEAP ON THE ERN SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWLANDS OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/COASTAL ZONES. DEWPOINTS WILL HANG TIGHT IN THE
U50S/L60S...KEEPING THESE AREAS MORE MODERATED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND DOWN ACROSS THE CHO/I-64 CORRIDOR W/ ADDITIONAL DENSE OVC
SKIES. USED A BLEND OF THE ADJMAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AND IT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE SATURDAY...AND THAT
WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ENLIGHTEN TO THIS TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN-FREE.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
USHER IN COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS KCHO. ALSO PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR KMRB AND KCHO.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...BUT
LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS KCHO WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND AN EXITING COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH
THE WATER OUT OF THE BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KLW









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190129 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AND BANK UP AGAINST THE LEE SIDE OF THE
SRN APLCNS AND THE FOOTHILLS...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SCRAPES THE
NRN EDGE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED
ANOTHER DRIER AIR SURGE TO RETURN FROM THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA ARE STARTING TO DROP INTO THE M-U40S...A
GOOD SIGN THAT IT WILL BE A COOL NIGHT THERE. THE STRATIFICATION
OF MOISTURE HOWEVER MAKES A DECENT-SIZED LEAP ON THE ERN SIDE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AND PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWLANDS OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/COASTAL ZONES. DEWPOINTS WILL HANG TIGHT IN THE
U50S/L60S...KEEPING THESE AREAS MORE MODERATED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND DOWN ACROSS THE CHO/I-64 CORRIDOR W/ ADDITIONAL DENSE OVC
SKIES. USED A BLEND OF THE ADJMAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AND IT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE SATURDAY...AND THAT
WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ENLIGHTEN TO THIS TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN-FREE.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
USHER IN COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS KCHO. ALSO PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR KMRB AND KCHO.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...BUT
LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS KCHO WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND AN EXITING COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH
THE WATER OUT OF THE BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KLW










000
FXUS61 KLWX 181810
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
210 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS
TIME. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR A LITTLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...CAUSING
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING FOR THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS MAY GET HUNG UP
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
OVERRUNNING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AND IT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE SATURDAY...AND THAT
WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ENLIGHTEN TO THIS TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS WILL BE RAINFREE.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
USHER IN COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS KCHO. ALSO PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR KMRB AND KCHO.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...BUT
LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS KCHO WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY. A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MARGINAL WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH
THE WATER OUT OF THE BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR ANNE
ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181810
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
210 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS
TIME. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
WARM AIR FOR A LITTLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...CAUSING
A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MOST AREAS
REMAINING DRY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING FOR THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT CLOUDS MAY GET HUNG UP
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
OVERRUNNING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND THIS MAY
CAUSE CLOUDS TO GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH AND WEST TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AND IT MAY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE SATURDAY...AND THAT
WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLD WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TO THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY EAST TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ENLIGHTEN TO THIS TROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD HANG ON TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOST AREAS WILL BE RAINFREE.

A SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
USHER IN COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. AN
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS KCHO. ALSO PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR KMRB AND KCHO.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...BUT
LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS KCHO WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY. A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MARGINAL WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT
15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE
LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH
THE WATER OUT OF THE BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR ANNE
ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ017-018.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 181313
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...MOST
PLACES WILL BE DRY AND EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO GET SHOWERS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A BKN CU DECK IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO POOL INTO THE REGION AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FRIDAY AND EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 0-4 KM WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LOOKOUT AREA. THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S LOW 70S NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG I-95 AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND INTRODUCED MENTION FOR FAVORED AREAS WEST OF THE
METROS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DECENT WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES AS A RESULT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WARMING TREND ALSO CONTINUES SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN LOW LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...THUNDER CHANCES LOOK VERY
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT. GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
AUTUMN - TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BRIEF SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE...BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR CHO-MRB- IAD.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH AREAS OF LOWER CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE TODAY BEFORE VEERING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A PRESSURE SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH THE WATER OUT OF THE
BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MINOR FLOODING IS
HIGHEST WITH THE LATER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181313
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
THROUGH IN THE FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FORCING WILL BE
WEAK...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. HOWEVER...MOST
PLACES WILL BE DRY AND EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO GET SHOWERS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO THIS
AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A BKN CU DECK IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO POOL INTO THE REGION AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FRIDAY AND EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 0-4 KM WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LOOKOUT AREA. THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S LOW 70S NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG I-95 AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND INTRODUCED MENTION FOR FAVORED AREAS WEST OF THE
METROS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DECENT WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES AS A RESULT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WARMING TREND ALSO CONTINUES SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN LOW LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...THUNDER CHANCES LOOK VERY
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT. GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
AUTUMN - TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BRIEF SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE...BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY. WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SO MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY FOR CHO-MRB- IAD.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH AREAS OF LOWER CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE TODAY BEFORE VEERING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. A PRESSURE SURGE IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AND TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT. WITH NO OFFSHORE FLOW TO PUSH THE WATER OUT OF THE
BAY...THESE TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN MINOR FLOODING IS
HIGHEST WITH THE LATER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

ELSEWHERE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT.

AN ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...CAUSING
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 180827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
427 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-WEST THIS MORNING. A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.

FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND VALLEYS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS MORNING. A DEWPT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
CWA WITH PLACES NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER DRIER THAN THOSE IN CENTRAL
VA DUE TO NRLY WINDS BRINGING DOWN LOWER DEWPTS. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BECOME EASTERLY BY MIDDAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC TODAY AND E-SE
WINDS DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND UP AGAINST THE RIDGES ISO-
SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISO-SCT AT BEST AND ONLY
LIGHT AMTS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND UPPER 70S IN THE
CITIES/PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO POOL INTO THE REGION AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FRIDAY AND EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 0-4 KM WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LOOKOUT AREA. THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S LOW 70S NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG I-95 AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND INTRODUCED MENTION FOR FAVORED AREAS WEST OF THE
METROS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DECENT WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES AS A RESULT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WARMING TREND ALSO CONTINUES SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN LOW LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...THUNDER CHANCES LOOK VERY
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT. GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
AUTUMN - TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AT CHO THIS MORNING AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT IAD-DCA-CHO BUT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED TO
ADD TO TAFS AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MAINLY FOR CHO-MRB-IAD.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH AREAS OF LOWER CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULDNT CAUSE VSBY ISSUES. WINDS WILL
BE EASTERLY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING NELY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CHANNELING ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS IN
EFFECT DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE...CFW IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOMOLIES ARE RUNNING AROUNDN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING ON
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY. THIS HAS LED TO MINOR FLOODING WHERE
ANNAPOLIS IS IN MINOR FLOOD AT THIS TIME. THESE PAST HIGH TIDES
WERE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO AND THERFORE NOT EXPECTED FLOODING FOR
THE NEXT ONE TODAY.

ANOMALIES AT THE SW WATERFRONT INCREASED TO 1.3 BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AS THEY REACH THEIR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. BELIEVE SE FLOW AT THE
MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC LED TO WATER LEVELS QUICKLY INCREASING IN
THIS AREA. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING OR THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE TODAY.

AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. WE
WOULD NEED 2 FT DEPARTURES FOR MDT FLOODING TO BE REALIZED. DO NOT
FORSEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DID...ANNAPOLIS AND ST GEORGE ISLAND
WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 180827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
427 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-WEST THIS MORNING. A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.

FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND VALLEYS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS MORNING. A DEWPT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
CWA WITH PLACES NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER DRIER THAN THOSE IN CENTRAL
VA DUE TO NRLY WINDS BRINGING DOWN LOWER DEWPTS. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BECOME EASTERLY BY MIDDAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC TODAY AND E-SE
WINDS DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND UP AGAINST THE RIDGES ISO-
SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISO-SCT AT BEST AND ONLY
LIGHT AMTS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND UPPER 70S IN THE
CITIES/PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO POOL INTO THE REGION AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FRIDAY AND EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 0-4 KM WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LOOKOUT AREA. THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S LOW 70S NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG I-95 AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND INTRODUCED MENTION FOR FAVORED AREAS WEST OF THE
METROS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DECENT WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES AS A RESULT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WARMING TREND ALSO CONTINUES SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN LOW LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...THUNDER CHANCES LOOK VERY
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT. GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
AUTUMN - TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AT CHO THIS MORNING AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT IAD-DCA-CHO BUT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED TO
ADD TO TAFS AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MAINLY FOR CHO-MRB-IAD.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH AREAS OF LOWER CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULDNT CAUSE VSBY ISSUES. WINDS WILL
BE EASTERLY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING NELY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CHANNELING ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS IN
EFFECT DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE...CFW IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOMOLIES ARE RUNNING AROUNDN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING ON
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY. THIS HAS LED TO MINOR FLOODING WHERE
ANNAPOLIS IS IN MINOR FLOOD AT THIS TIME. THESE PAST HIGH TIDES
WERE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO AND THERFORE NOT EXPECTED FLOODING FOR
THE NEXT ONE TODAY.

ANOMALIES AT THE SW WATERFRONT INCREASED TO 1.3 BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AS THEY REACH THEIR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. BELIEVE SE FLOW AT THE
MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC LED TO WATER LEVELS QUICKLY INCREASING IN
THIS AREA. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING OR THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE TODAY.

AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. WE
WOULD NEED 2 FT DEPARTURES FOR MDT FLOODING TO BE REALIZED. DO NOT
FORSEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DID...ANNAPOLIS AND ST GEORGE ISLAND
WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 180732
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-WEST THIS MORNING. A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.

FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND VALLEYS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS MORNING. A DEWPT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
CWA WITH PLACES NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER DRIER THAN THOSE IN CENTRAL
VA DUE TO NRLY WINDS BRINGING DOWN LOWER DEWPTS. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BECOME EASTERLY BY MIDDAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC TODAY AND E-SE
WINDS DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND UP AGAINST THE RIDGES ISO-
SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISO-SCT AT BEST AND ONLY
LIGHT AMTS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND UPPER 70S IN THE
CITIES/PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO POOL INTO THE REGION AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FRIDAY AND EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 0-4 KM WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LOOKOUT AREA. THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S LOW 70S NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG I-95 AND EAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND INTRODUCED MENTION FOR FAVORED AREAS WEST OF THE
METROS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DECENT WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES AS A RESULT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WARMING TREND ALSO CONTINUES SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN LOW LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...THUNDER CHANCES LOOK VERY
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT. GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
AUTUMN - TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AT CHO THIS MORNING AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT IAD-DCA-CHO BUT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED TO
ADD TO TAFS AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MAINLY FOR CHO-MRB-IAD.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH AREAS OF LOWER CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULDNT CAUSE VSBY ISSUES. WINDS WILL
BE EASTERLY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING NELY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CHANNELING ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS IN
EFFECT DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMOLIES ARE RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING ON
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY. THIS HAS LED TO MINOR FLOODING WHERE
ANNAPOLIS IS IN MINOR FLOOD AT THIS TIME. THESE PAST HIGH TIDES
WERE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO AND THERFORE NOT EXPECTED FLOODING FOR
THE NEXT ONE TODAY.

ANOMALIES AT THE SW WATERFRONT INCREASED TO 1.3 BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AS THEY REACH THEIR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. BELIEVE SE FLOW AT THE
MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC LED TO WATER LEVELS QUICKLY INCREASING IN
THIS AREA. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING OR THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE TODAY.

AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. WE
WOULD NEED 2 FT DEPARTURES FOR MDT FLOODING TO BE REALIZED. DO NOT
FORSEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DID...ANNAPOLIS AND ST GEORGE ISLAND
WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 180732
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-WEST THIS MORNING. A FLAT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.

FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND VALLEYS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS MORNING. A DEWPT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE
CWA WITH PLACES NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER DRIER THAN THOSE IN CENTRAL
VA DUE TO NRLY WINDS BRINGING DOWN LOWER DEWPTS. WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND BECOME EASTERLY BY MIDDAY. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC TODAY AND E-SE
WINDS DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND UP AGAINST THE RIDGES ISO-
SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES INSTABILITY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISO-SCT AT BEST AND ONLY
LIGHT AMTS EXPECTED WITHIN SHOWERS. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND UPPER 70S IN THE
CITIES/PIEDMONT/SOUTHERN MD.

HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO POOL INTO THE REGION AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. THE WEDGE WILL HOLD FRIDAY AND EASTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 0-4 KM WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE LOOKOUT AREA. THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE
DRIER AIR WILL BE PRESENT. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S LOW 70S NEAR
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG I-95 AND EAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER WEAK FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN PATCHY GROUND/RIVER FOG DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT...AND INTRODUCED MENTION FOR FAVORED AREAS WEST OF THE
METROS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH SATURDAY AS WINDS
VEER SOUTHEAST...AND SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DECENT WARM
AIR ADVECTION ENSUES AS A RESULT AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WARMING TREND ALSO CONTINUES SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM GREAT LAKES/CANADIAN LOW LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT...THUNDER CHANCES LOOK VERY
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT. GOOD
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OVERHEAD. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE FIRST FULL DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
AUTUMN - TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AT CHO THIS MORNING AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AT IAD-DCA-CHO BUT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED TO
ADD TO TAFS AT THIS TIME. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MAINLY FOR CHO-MRB-IAD.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH AREAS OF LOWER CIGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULDNT CAUSE VSBY ISSUES. WINDS WILL
BE EASTERLY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING NELY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CHANNELING ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS IN
EFFECT DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMOLIES ARE RUNNING AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS MORNING ON
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY. THIS HAS LED TO MINOR FLOODING WHERE
ANNAPOLIS IS IN MINOR FLOOD AT THIS TIME. THESE PAST HIGH TIDES
WERE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO AND THERFORE NOT EXPECTED FLOODING FOR
THE NEXT ONE TODAY.

ANOMALIES AT THE SW WATERFRONT INCREASED TO 1.3 BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AS THEY REACH THEIR HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. BELIEVE SE FLOW AT THE
MOUTH OF THE POTOMAC LED TO WATER LEVELS QUICKLY INCREASING IN
THIS AREA. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING OR THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE TODAY.

AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO. WE
WOULD NEED 2 FT DEPARTURES FOR MDT FLOODING TO BE REALIZED. DO NOT
FORSEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DID...ANNAPOLIS AND ST GEORGE ISLAND
WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...AEB
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HAS/AEB
MARINE...HAS/AEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 180107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A LARGER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE ONE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST...ANOTHER WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE ONE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL
ACTUALLY BRING SOME WX TO THE AREA ON THU. UNTIL THEN...THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY IS ALLOWING THE EARLIER CLOUD COVER
TO DISSIPATE OFF AND CLEAR OUT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MILD TEMPS
FROM EARLIER THIS AFTN HAVE SLOWLY DROPPED OFF INTO THE 60S IN
RECENT HRS...BUT WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE L-M50S.

TONIGHT AND INTO THU...THE ERN AND WRN HALVES OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE SOME OPPOSING CONDITIONS. WHILE MOVING TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF THE COAST...THE LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL BEGIN TO BANK RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR BACK ONSHORE INTO EARLY THU. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MODERATED OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR/METRO AREAS WHILE THE WEST WILL
SEE TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S - OVER THE APLCNS.

HEADING INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS ON THU...THE LOW-MID LEVEL STRATUS
LAYER WILL REBUILD AGAIN AND HELP TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE W/ THE
MOISTURE INCREASE - POSSIBLY TOO AGGRESSIVE AS IT COMPLETELY
SATURATES THE COLUMN ALONG AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS IF THIS WERE
A STRONG CAA/OVERRUNNING SITUATION WERE OCCURRING. THE LIKELY MORE
REASONABLE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT/EURO MAKING THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE BISECTING THE AREA MODERATELY MOIST W/ BROKEN SKY COVER AND A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE OPPOSING WIND FIELD OVER THE AREA WILL
ALLOW THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO SEE TEMPS POKING BACK INTO THE M-U70S -
THOUGH CLOUD COVER DEPENDENT...AND U60S/L70S OVER THE SHEN
VLY/MTNS FROM A LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND DUE TO AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW FRIDAY WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE BELOW CLIMO...BUT WINDS
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AND IN ALL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BRIEFLY.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MONDAY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE NEXT
PUSH OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THU. SOME PATCHY
VALLEY BR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU...THEN A BKN MID
STRATUS DECK AND SOME STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE TMRW AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT...INTO
THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT GUSTS
HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW SINCE THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TIDEWATER OF
VIRGINIA AND THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES RUNNING CLOSE TO A FT ABV ASTRO NORMS ATTM AT NEARLY
ALL SITES EXCEPT IN THE UPPER POTOMAC. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THOSE
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH THE INCOMING TIDE /THEYRE AT
LOW TIDE NOW/.

BASED ON THESE VALUES...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR ST
MARYS...CALVERT...AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES. WOULD NEED DEPARTURES
OF 1.1 TO 1.3 FT FOR CBOFS GUIDANCE TO VERIFY. DONT THINK WE WL GET
THERE...AND ONCE AGAIN SHADED FORECASTS UNDER THAT GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THAT LOGIC...BALTIMORE CITY WILL COME REAL CLOSE TO MINOR
CRITERIA. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE A PEAK JUST UNDER
THRESHOLD. WL OPT TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THE
GREATEST. IF TRENDS PROVE OTHERWISE...THERE MAY NEED TO BE A
SHORT-FUSED ADVY. DONT THINK HARFORD WILL RISE ABOVE CAUTION STAGE
DUE TO THEIR HIGHER THRESHOLDS.

IN THE POTOMAC...HEC-RAS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PEAK OF 4 FT AS
WASD2... WHICH WOULD BE A 1 FT ANOMALY. DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL BE
HIGHER THAN THAT. THUS...THE ADVISORY WONT BE EXPANDED UP THE
POTOMAC FOR THIS CYCLE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS FRONT. AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
IT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO.
WE WOULD NEED 2 FT DEPARTURES FOR MDT FLOODING TO BE REALIZED. DO
NOT FORSEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DID...ANNAPOLIS AND ST GEORGE
ISLAND WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ014-017-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 180107 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
907 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A LARGER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE ONE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST...ANOTHER WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE ONE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL
ACTUALLY BRING SOME WX TO THE AREA ON THU. UNTIL THEN...THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY IS ALLOWING THE EARLIER CLOUD COVER
TO DISSIPATE OFF AND CLEAR OUT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MILD TEMPS
FROM EARLIER THIS AFTN HAVE SLOWLY DROPPED OFF INTO THE 60S IN
RECENT HRS...BUT WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE L-M50S.

TONIGHT AND INTO THU...THE ERN AND WRN HALVES OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE SOME OPPOSING CONDITIONS. WHILE MOVING TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY
OFF THE COAST...THE LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL BEGIN TO BANK RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR BACK ONSHORE INTO EARLY THU. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
MODERATED OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR/METRO AREAS WHILE THE WEST WILL
SEE TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S - OVER THE APLCNS.

HEADING INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS ON THU...THE LOW-MID LEVEL STRATUS
LAYER WILL REBUILD AGAIN AND HELP TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY. THE NAM IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE W/ THE
MOISTURE INCREASE - POSSIBLY TOO AGGRESSIVE AS IT COMPLETELY
SATURATES THE COLUMN ALONG AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS IF THIS WERE
A STRONG CAA/OVERRUNNING SITUATION WERE OCCURRING. THE LIKELY MORE
REASONABLE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT/EURO MAKING THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE BISECTING THE AREA MODERATELY MOIST W/ BROKEN SKY COVER AND A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE OPPOSING WIND FIELD OVER THE AREA WILL
ALLOW THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO SEE TEMPS POKING BACK INTO THE M-U70S -
THOUGH CLOUD COVER DEPENDENT...AND U60S/L70S OVER THE SHEN
VLY/MTNS FROM A LIGHT NW WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND DUE TO AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW FRIDAY WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE BELOW CLIMO...BUT WINDS
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AND IN ALL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BRIEFLY.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MONDAY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE NEXT
PUSH OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THU. SOME PATCHY
VALLEY BR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU...THEN A BKN MID
STRATUS DECK AND SOME STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE TMRW AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT...INTO
THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
PRESSURE SURGE WILL CAUSE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT GUSTS
HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW SINCE THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TIDEWATER OF
VIRGINIA AND THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES RUNNING CLOSE TO A FT ABV ASTRO NORMS ATTM AT NEARLY
ALL SITES EXCEPT IN THE UPPER POTOMAC. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THOSE
DEPARTURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH THE INCOMING TIDE /THEYRE AT
LOW TIDE NOW/.

BASED ON THESE VALUES...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR ST
MARYS...CALVERT...AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES. WOULD NEED DEPARTURES
OF 1.1 TO 1.3 FT FOR CBOFS GUIDANCE TO VERIFY. DONT THINK WE WL GET
THERE...AND ONCE AGAIN SHADED FORECASTS UNDER THAT GUIDANCE. BASED
ON THAT LOGIC...BALTIMORE CITY WILL COME REAL CLOSE TO MINOR
CRITERIA. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE A PEAK JUST UNDER
THRESHOLD. WL OPT TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT THE
GREATEST. IF TRENDS PROVE OTHERWISE...THERE MAY NEED TO BE A
SHORT-FUSED ADVY. DONT THINK HARFORD WILL RISE ABOVE CAUTION STAGE
DUE TO THEIR HIGHER THRESHOLDS.

IN THE POTOMAC...HEC-RAS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PEAK OF 4 FT AS
WASD2... WHICH WOULD BE A 1 FT ANOMALY. DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL BE
HIGHER THAN THAT. THUS...THE ADVISORY WONT BE EXPANDED UP THE
POTOMAC FOR THIS CYCLE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS FRONT. AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND
IT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO.
WE WOULD NEED 2 FT DEPARTURES FOR MDT FLOODING TO BE REALIZED. DO
NOT FORSEE THAT HAPPENING. IF IT DID...ANNAPOLIS AND ST GEORGE
ISLAND WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ014-017-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 171819
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
219 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SOME MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 60 IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. A COUPLE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MOST AREAS WILL END UP DRY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND DUE TO AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW FRIDAY WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE BELOW CLIMO...BUT WINDS
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AND IN ALL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BRIEFLY.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MONDAY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE NEXT
PUSH OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL
CAUSE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT GUSTS
HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW SINCE THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TIDEWATER OF
VIRGINIA AND THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING
TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. TIDAL ANOMALIES UP TO A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING FOR SENSITIVE AREAS NEAR HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THRESHOLDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS FRONT. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME AND IT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH
IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ014-017-018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 171819
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
219 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST
TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SOME MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO
TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 60 IN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. A COUPLE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MOST AREAS WILL END UP DRY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 70S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.

THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME BUT CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND DUE TO AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW FRIDAY WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE BELOW CLIMO...BUT WINDS
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AND IN ALL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT COULD STALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA BRIEFLY.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MONDAY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONT OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ALLOW FOR THE NEXT
PUSH OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BEFORE
PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME...BUT PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AND A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING MORE
VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A PRESSURE SURGE WILL
CAUSE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA AT TIMES...BUT GUSTS
HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW SINCE THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TIDEWATER OF
VIRGINIA AND THE MAIN STEM CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
FLOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...CAUSING
TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE. TIDAL ANOMALIES UP TO A FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING FOR SENSITIVE AREAS NEAR HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY THROUGH ST MARYS COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BUT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THRESHOLDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS FRONT. AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THIS
TIME AND IT WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NEAR TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH
IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ014-017-018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/KLW
AVIATION...BJL/KLW
MARINE...BJL/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









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