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000
FXUS61 KLWX 221852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OCEAN EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH OR ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARDS CAPE COD.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
IMPACTS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. RAIN SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND
AROUND 60 IN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LEFTOVER RAIN
NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION AS THE AREA
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE SHALLOW. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT MAY DIMINISH FOR A FEW HRS OVERNIGHT IF AN
INVERSION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HIGHEST 925MB JET WILL BE PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
GUSTS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON AT DC AREA
TERMINALS. BALTIMORE AIRPORTS WILL BE LAST TO SEE RAIN END LATE
THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS...BUT PDS OF VFR WHEN LOWER
CLOUDS SCATTER. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODIC RAIN TODAY. SCA THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES.
GALES OVER THE SRN MD WATERS AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. ELECTED NOT TO
ISSUE A GALE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT NOT
LIKELY TO MIX DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB










000
FXUS61 KLWX 221440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS MOMENTARILY STATIONARY EAST OF THE
DELMARVA/TIDEWATER SHORE. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARDS CAPE COD. RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT EASTERN/SOUTHERN
MD...WASHINGTON DC AND THE I-05 CORRIDOR DOWN TO FREDERICKSBURG
AND POINTS SOUTH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND NORTH. UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND
DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON AT DC AREA
TERMINALS. BALTIMORE AIRPORTS WILL BE LAST TO SEE RAIN END LATE
TODAY. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS...BUT PDS OF VFR AT KDCA/KIAD WHEN
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER. NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT BY
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...GUSTS
GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODIC RAIN TODAY. SCA THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES.
GALES OVER AT LEAST THE SRN MD WATERS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES. MAY NEED GALES FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 220803 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MARYLAND SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOWER LEVEL
LOW IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THE
SFC LOW IS AT MOST 1008MB AND OFF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST PER
OBS/BUOYS. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW HAS ALLOW SOME
THUNDER OVER THE DELMARVA WITH A FEW STRIKES IN HARFORD COUNTY. THIS
LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
MERELY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY. THUNDER THREAT WILL END BY SUNRISE
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES EAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THREE INCHES STORM
TOTAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THERE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL RETRACT EAST
FROM THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS (THOUGH UPSLOPE PERSISTS) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. RAISED TEMPS TO THE LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MVFR CONDS IN PERIODIC RAIN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST FROM
THE AREA (CURRENTLY RIGHT OVER THE DC METROS). NW WINDS INCREASE
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...GUSTS GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KT.

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...

PERIODIC RAIN TODAY WITH ANY THUNDER ENDING BY MID MORNING. SCA
THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES. GALES OVER AT LEAST THE SRN MD
WATERS TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY NEED GALES FOR ALL
WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!










000
FXUS61 KLWX 220800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...UPR LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN MARYLAND SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOWER LEVEL
LOW IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER EAST PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. THE
SFC LOW IS AT MOST 1008MB AND OFF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST PER
OBS/BUOYS. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW HAS ALLOW SOME
THUNDER OVER THE DELMARVA WITH A FEW STRIKES IN HARFORD COUNTY. THIS
LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
MERELY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TODAY. THUNDER THREAT WILL END BY SUNRISE
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES EAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THREE INCHES STORM
TOTAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS BALTIMORE/HARFORD COUNTIES WHERE ONE TO TWO
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. COULD BE A FLOOD THREAT THERE AND THIS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL RETRACT EAST
FROM THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS (THOUGH UPSLOPE PERSISTS) THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE.

MAX TEMPS LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AROUND 60F FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. RAISED TEMPS TO THE LOW 60S FOR CHO AND SHD BASED ON EXPECTED
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING NWLY FLOW WITHOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE STRONG
WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SFC. THEREFORE...THE ONLY EXPECTED WIND
ADVISORY THREAT FOR TONIGHT IS THOUGHT TO BE ON RIDGETOPS. MIN
TEMPS MID TO UPR 40S WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY...GUSTY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TOO HIGH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS UPR 50S TO LOW 60S IN THE WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE COVERED...SWRN PART OF THE SKY.
QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...WHICH SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THIS TIME PD. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY
BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO BE NEAR CAPE COD FRI MRNG. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO
MID ALTC SHOULD PROVIDE GOOD WX FOR THE END OF THE WORKWK AND THEN A
VERY PLSNT WKND. HIGHS IN THE MU60S...LOWS GNRLY IN THE 40S XCPT
L50S IN THE CITIES. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF OCT.

A DRY CD FNT MAY COME THRU THE AREA SUN...THEN IT`S LOOKING LK A
BIG RDG OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVR THE E CST FOR THE 1ST PART OF NEXT
WK. HIGHS A70 LOWS IN THE 40S XCPT L50S IN THE CITY AND ALONG THE BAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE XTND PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE THU NGT.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDS LKLY TO CONT THU NGT AND FRI. IT LOOKS LK WKND BOATING
CONDS SHOULD BE GOOD. WATER TEMPS IN THE M60S.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 220354
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1154 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

POPS IN THE NERN PART OF THE FCST AREA WERE INCRSD DUE TO ONGOING
RA. NO FLD THREAT.

PRVS DSCN...

LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RISE BEHIND THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ACTIVITY WAS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LED TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL. AS OF 00Z...THE PRESSURE SURGE WAS AT THE WATERS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WINDS BEHIND THE SURGE ARE EXPECTED
TO LESSEN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LIMIT THE FORMATION OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS OVER THE REGION...MORE SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN EARLIER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGION AS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO
CONSTANT LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW
50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE FOR DC THU - 5:52 PM TO 6:17 PM. BALT IS
5:51 TO 6:15. QUSTN WL BE WHETHER IT WL BE VSBL DUE TO CLDS...
WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE WANE DURG THIS TIME PD.

PRVS DSCN...

BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND NW WINDS
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED. DCA/MTN WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS
OVERNIGHT. SHRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT IMPACTING DCA/BWI/MTN.
SOME SHOWERS ARE HEAVY RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS. THEY WILL
LIKELY STAY ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE RAIN MOVES AWY FROM THE
TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WED
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN BY
WED AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE SURGE MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME PARTS OF
CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...KS/HAS/CEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 220056
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
856 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION AS PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RISE BEHIND THE LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...COOLER AIR
ALOFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MADE FOR AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ACTIVITY WAS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SMALL HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LED TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AS WELL. AS OF 00Z...THE PRESSURE SURGE WAS AT THE WATERS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WINDS BEHIND THE SURGE ARE EXPECTED
TO LESSEN TONIGHT BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND LIMIT THE FORMATION OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
SPINS OVER THE REGION...MORE SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE REGION BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN EARLIER. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGION AS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO
CONSTANT LIFT.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW
50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND NW WINDS
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED. DCA/MTN WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20KTS
OVERNIGHT. SHRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT IMPACTING DCA/BWI/MTN.
SOME SHOWERS ARE HEAVY RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS. THEY WILL
LIKELY STAY ABOVE IFR CONDITIONS. AS THE RAIN MOVES AWY FROM THE
TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

NW WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY WED
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN BY
WED AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE SURGE MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE
MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME PARTS OF
CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535>537.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS/KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/KS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/KS/CEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 212216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MARINE SECTION.

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION OVERNIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
UPSTREAM ACROSS WV/PA AND OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE VA PIEDMONT. COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE
JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIN WIDE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. STEADY BREEZE AROUND
5-10KT FROM THE NW CONTINUES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR PSBL AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...BECG NW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY...AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...UP TO 20-25KT
BY THE AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE HEADING TOWARDS THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED
IN GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME
N-NW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS LIKELY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME
PARTS OF CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535>537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 212216
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
616 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS
THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE MARINE SECTION.

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION OVERNIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
UPSTREAM ACROSS WV/PA AND OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE VA PIEDMONT. COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE
JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIN WIDE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. STEADY BREEZE AROUND
5-10KT FROM THE NW CONTINUES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR PSBL AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...BECG NW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY...AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...UP TO 20-25KT
BY THE AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...PRESSURE SURGE HEADING TOWARDS THE WATERS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE I-95 CORRIDOR. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE RESULTED
IN GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. A SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME
N-NW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SCA GUSTS LIKELY BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY TO REACH 30KT IN SOME
PARTS OF CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ535>537.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HAS
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 211845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. BROAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MOVES INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION OVERNIGHT.

COMBINATION OF COOL AIR ALOFT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
MARGINAL SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
UPSTREAM ACROSS WV/PA AND OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND
500 J/KG OF SBCAPE...WILL HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE
60S...WITH A FEW 70S NOTED IN THE VA PIEDMONT. COOLER TEMPS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE
JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASIN WIDE
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME LOCAL AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE RAINFALL. STEADY BREEZE AROUND
5-10KT FROM THE NW CONTINUES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
REACHES THE GULF STREAM. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WRAPAROUND RAINFALL
LIKELY AT TIMES OVER EASTERN MD AND PORTIONS OF VA. UPSLOPE RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL FAVOR LIQUID RAIN OVER MOST
OF THE HIGHLANDS...BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN GRANT...PENDLETON
AND HIGHLAND MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE  SLOWLY SLIDES UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. DOWNSLOPING OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ELIMINATE POPS LOCALLY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...WHERE UPSLOPE
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE QUIET/DRY
WEATHER AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID-60S...AND TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST...AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING. PERIODS
OF MVFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF IFR PSBL AS WELL AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING...BECG NW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WEDNESDAY...AND PERIODIC
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED...UP TO 20-25KT
BY THE AFTERNOON.

THU...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25KT.

FRI...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 1OKT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOME N-NW AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH
SCA GUSTS LIKELY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL CONTINUES
FOR GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE
NJ/DELMARVA SHORE. MODEL FORECASTS ARE MARGINAL FOR GALES...SO FOR
NOW OPTED TO EXTEND SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS LIKELY
TO REACH 30KT IN SOME PARTS OF CHES BAY AT LEAST.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS...THOUGH CURRENTLY THINK THEY
WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 211355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...1010MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER WRN PA AND ERN OHIO. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS
MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV...AND MAY IMPACT THE ERN WV
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN PA
AND WV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR/WRF MODELS...ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EWD TO THE METRO AREAS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...AND MAY TOUCH 70 ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95. AIR ALOFT WILL BE VERY COOL DUE TO THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE OVERALL INSTABILITY IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING YIELDS SBCAPE
BETWEEN 400-500 J/KG...ENOUGH FOR A FEW POTENTIAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA
COAST. POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF
I-95 FROM WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF
LOW. EXPECT GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMING WLY LATE THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER
THE BAY. NWLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST
30 KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO JUST OVER ONE HALF FOOT AT SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATES...KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 211355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...1010MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER WRN PA AND ERN OHIO. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS
MOVING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV...AND MAY IMPACT THE ERN WV
PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WRN PA
AND WV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND HRRR/WRF MODELS...ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING EWD TO THE METRO AREAS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SURFACE TEMPS
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...AND MAY TOUCH 70 ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95. AIR ALOFT WILL BE VERY COOL DUE TO THE UPPER LOW...WHICH
WILL HELP INCREASE OVERALL INSTABILITY IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
SURFACE DEW POINTS. MODIFIED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING YIELDS SBCAPE
BETWEEN 400-500 J/KG...ENOUGH FOR A FEW POTENTIAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA
COAST. POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF
I-95 FROM WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF
LOW. EXPECT GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW BECOMING WLY LATE THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER
THE BAY. NWLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST
30 KT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO JUST OVER ONE HALF FOOT AT SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS. COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATES...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1007MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER NRN OHIO. AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OVER THE WRN PA/CNTRL WV.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE INTO A OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT SOUTH EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSH EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH POPS INCREASING FROM
THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ISO THUNDER IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE LOW CENTER. THIS PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WLY FLOW PREVAILS...BUT IS QUITE
WEAK. THEREFORE THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
(CATEGORICAL WEST). MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY (THE AIRMASS IS
ALREADY IN PLACE)...BUT CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DETERMINE THE
PRECISE DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA COAST.
POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF I-95 FROM
WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF LOW. EXPECT
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

FLOW BECOMES WLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY. NWLY
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 30 KT BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LINGERS
OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW
LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES BUT FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLD LVLS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KLWX 210800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT OVER OHIO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1007MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STRETCHING OVER NRN OHIO. AN UPR LEVEL TROUGH IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OVER THE WRN PA/CNTRL WV.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CLOSE INTO A OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHIFT SOUTH EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS PUSH EAST BEFORE SUNRISE WITH POPS INCREASING FROM
THE WEST AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ISO THUNDER IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE LOW CENTER. THIS PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WLY FLOW PREVAILS...BUT IS QUITE
WEAK. THEREFORE THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND
POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELIES EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
(CATEGORICAL WEST). MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO MONDAY (THE AIRMASS IS
ALREADY IN PLACE)...BUT CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DETERMINE THE
PRECISE DEGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...

POPS GENERALLY DECREASE SLOWLY TONIGHT WEST TO EAST (EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH UPSLOPE RAIN CONTINUING) AS THE UPR LOW CENTER
SHIFTS TO THE DELMARVA. MIN TEMPS MAINLY UPR 40S INLAND UNDER THE
COLD CORE LOW (UPR 30S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND LOW 50S NEAR SHORE).

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MERELY DRIFTS EAST FROM THE DELMARVA COAST.
POPS PERSIST IN THE ALLEGHENIES FOR UPSLOPE AND EAST OF I-95 FROM
WRAP AROUND PRECIP. GUSTY NWLY FLOW FROM THE NOW CUTOFF LOW. EXPECT
GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BLUSTERY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WED NGT AND THU...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. LOW PRES GOES VERTICALLY STACKED
OFF THE NJ CST W/ HIGH PRES BUILDING OVR OH/KY. THIS WL CREATE A
STRONG PRES GRAD AND BRZY/WINDY CONDS. ISOLD RW WL BE PSBL AS
WELL..AGN IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S.

SKIES SHOULD BE CLRG DURG THU AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS
LONG ISLAND BUT SUSPECT IT WL STILL BE BRZY GIVEN THE PRES GRAD.
GRTR SUNSHINE SHOULD ALSO HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE LOWER LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND BRING WIND TO THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO LM60S.

AFTR THU WX SHOULD GET BETTER AND BETTER. HIGH PRES REPLACES THE
DEPARTED LOW ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD FRI THRU THE WKND...AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WK. EACH DAY SHOULD BE A LTL WARMER THAN
THE ONE B4...STARTING W/ THE LM60S FRI TO THE LM70S MON. LOWS IN
THE LM40S EVERYWHERE XCPT THE COOLER HIGHLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR PREVAILS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. LIKELY RAIN AND ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE
AREA. STRONG NWLY FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

CLDY WED NGT BUT CIGS XPCTD TO BE VFR. BRZY NW WINDS XPCTD WED NGT
AND THU. VFR/NO PROBS FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...

FLOW BECOMES WLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING OVER THE BAY. NWLY
FLOW INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 30 KT BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LINGERS
OFF THE DELMARVA.

SCA WL LKLY BE ISSUED FOR WED NGT AND THU. WE`LL HV TO KEEP OUR
EYES OUT FOR THE PSBLTY OF GUSTS REACHING GALE LVLS.

THE WKND IS LOOKING QUITE GOOD FOR MARINE ACTIVITIES - SUNNY
SKIES...PLSNT TEMPS...LGT WINDS. WATER TEMPS STILL IN LM60S.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW
LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES BUT FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLD LVLS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210054
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210054
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
854 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS
THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-537-
     539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB
MARINE...KS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS










000
FXUS61 KLWX 210026
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
826 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IS MOVING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO A DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY
HUNDREDTHS ARE EXPECTED IN PLACES THAT RECIEVE RAIN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHLANDS. WESTERLY
FLOW AGAINST THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LIFT AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND NEAR 50 IN THE
METROS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER HEAD. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND THEREFORE SOME INSTABILITY. ADDED ISOLATED TSTMS TO
AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE WIND FIELD
WILL LIMIT GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN
THE 60S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO
INCLUDE SNOW AS A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LAYER OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO
THICK FOR ANY SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS
CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO
FALL NO ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY
SOUTH OF DRUM PT/TANGIER SOUND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC UNTIL 2 AM.
WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT TONIGHT UNDER
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND
ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL
SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KS/CEB/HAS
MARINE...KS/CEB/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201827
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
227 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY. BOTH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...AND ISOLATED RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED ON
SURFACE OBS OVER ERN WV. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES...RAIN WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. FCST CALLS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INITIALLY...SPREADING EWD INTO
THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
BY THIS EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
LIKELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR THOSE
AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS AND WINDS...HIGHS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN
THE 60S UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME GUSTS TO 2O MPH. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95...AND IN THE 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV/MD/VA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 50S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AGAIN...AND
AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS AND BY CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OCCLUDED AND STRENGTHEN NEAR
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENT AS
IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS STORMS PRECIP SHIELDS SLOWLY
STAGGERS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW. WE SHOULD SEE A RESPECTABLE QPF
GRADIENT WITH THE AREAS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BAY RECEIVING
ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WHILE LOCATIONS ON
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DUE TO THEIR
PROXIMITY OT THE LOW.

THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW IS THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP THREAT. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ALONG THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE LOW TEMPS THAT MAY DIP INTO THE MID 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE FETCH OF THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES UPSTREAM OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT THE OPTION TO INCLUDE SNOW AS
A PRECIP TYPE WAS TEMPTING. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAYER OF
ABOVE-FREEZING AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT TOO THICK FOR ANY
SNOWFALL. THIS MAY CHANGE IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS CONFIDENCE IN LOW
TEMPS INCREASES...BUT EVEN IF A FEW FLAKES DO FALL NO ACCUMULATION
WILL OCCUR.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL NOSE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE BEAUTIFUL FALL DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID-60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AND OUR NEXT
THREAT FOR ADVERSE WEATHER SHOULD NOT PRESENT ITSELF UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER MOST ZONES
WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCA EXPIRES
AT 8 PM FOR MOST ZONES...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES
ISLAND AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS JUST OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FILL IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES BACK ON THE RISE...APPROACHING 1 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. FORECASTS FOR WASHINGTON
CHANNEL...BALTIMORE AND ANNAPOLIS SHOW LIKELIHOOD TO REACH ACTION
STAGES IN THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME FALL SHORT OF MINOR INUNDATION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 201527
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1127 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/NC LATE THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
DECK HAS MOVED INTO MOST OF THE CWA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW
GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX
TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH TLOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S ALONG AND
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW
OF DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. MORNING KIAD
SOUNDING INDICATED 20-25KT WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER...WHICH CONFIRMS MODELS THAT INDICATED A 925MB JET STREAM OF
25-30KT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA TO
ALL WATERS WITH A NOON START TIME. SCA EXPIRES FOR MOST ZONES AT 8
PM...EXCEPT FOR THE MD CHES BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC WHERE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 2 AM. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM AND MARINE UPDATE...KCS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 201316
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS HAVE MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S AT 9AM...SO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/MD/NC THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
DECK HAS MOVED INTO NRN AND WRN MD...WESTERN VA AND WV...AND WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ531>533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 201316
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TEMPS HAVE MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S AT 9AM...SO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN VA/MD/NC THIS MORNING. CIRRUS
DECK HAS MOVED INTO NRN AND WRN MD...WESTERN VA AND WV...AND WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDS TO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ531>533-540-541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1021MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SERN VA WITH A 1007MB SFC LOW
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ARE SO FAR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPR 30S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES (INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND).

SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE IN RETURN FLOW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDSTO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...PERSISTING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

AS OF 07Z...1021MB SFC HIGH IS OVER SERN VA WITH A 1007MB SFC LOW
OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN. MOSTLY TRANSPARENT CIRRUS HAVE MOVED OVER
THE ARE SO FAR TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPR 30S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCALES (INCLUDING SOUTHERN MARYLAND).

SINCE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES...EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP AFTER SUNRISE IN RETURN FLOW.
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY WITH SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
AND LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH MAINLY WLY FLOW. THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL COUNTERACT THE HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...WENT WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN MONDAY NW OF
DC FROM CLOUD COVER. COULD IT 70F SE FROM DC SHOULD THE CLOUDS HOLD
OFF LONG ENOUGH.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND WL BE CONTROLLED BY THE CLOSED/VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW PRES AREA. MUCH OF THE RMDR WL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RETURN TO HIGH PRES.

TUE NGT AND WED SHOULD BE CLDY. "SHOWERY" MAY BE THE BEST WORD TO
DESCRIBE THIS PD. NOT RAINY...JUST PDS OF RAIN W/ RLVTLY LOW QPF.
TEMP-WISE NOT MUCH OF A DIURNAL VARIATION - LOWS IN THE U40S/HIGHS
IN THE MU50S.

THE LOW IS XPCTD TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND...W/ HIGH
PRES WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE RGN ON NWRLY WINDS. BRZY/
BLUSTERY MIGHT BE GOOD WORDSTO DESCRIBE THU AS THE HIGHER PRES
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC. HIGHS RANGING FM THE U40S IN THE
HIGHLANDS TO THE L60S NEAR THE CHES BAY. MAJORITY OF THE AREA
SHOULD HV HIGHS IN THE 50S.

AFTR THAT A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE UNDER M SUNNY
DAYTIME SKIES LEADING INTO THE WKND. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING
WKND XPCTD TO BE IN THE M60S OVR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE WITH RETURN
SLY/SWLY FLOW GUSTING UP TO 18 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WLY FLOW LIMITING RAIN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED.

TUE NGT/WED XPCTD TO BE CLDY. HGTS WL PRBLY IN THE "LOW VFR
RANGE"...PSBLY DESCENDING INTO MVFR. SKIES SHOULD IMPRV THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...

RETURN FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. SCA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MD BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND FOR SLY
CHANNELING UP TO 20 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS WINDS
WEST. WLY FLOW TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCA CONDS XPCTD WED NGT AND THU...PSBLY CONT INTO FRI.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KLWX 200114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...LEADING TO CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
GRANT...PENDLETON AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DOES ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BE THIN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE
HIGHLANDS...TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO
THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEB
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/CEB
MARINE...BJL/GMS/CEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200114
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
914 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY PASS BY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH...
USHERING IN CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIVE DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST...BUT SLOW DOWN AND RESIDE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA...LEADING TO CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
GRANT...PENDLETON AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DOES ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH FROST WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT SINCE THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BE THIN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FROST LATE TONIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE
HIGHLANDS...TO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO
THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ONE-DAY REPRIEVE FROM THE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SFC HIGH
ROLLING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MAKES AN EXIT OFF THE COAST AND
BRINGS IN RETURN SLY FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR
WARM-UP RELATIVE TO TODAY`S CONDITIONS. AS WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE
WILL DIVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
APEX OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE REACH NRN NY MON EVE...THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE WILL DECELERATE AND BEGIN TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER
JET STREAM.

MOISTURE WILL RETURNS FROM THE TOP-DOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. THICKER MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL ARRIVE LATE
MON AFTN/EVE ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE INCOMING UPPER WAVE. FALLING
PRECIP WILL HAVE A SIZABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE
REACHING THE SFC...BUT THIS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT HRS.

INCREASE POPS FOR THE CNTRL APLCNS LATE MON AND KEPT A LOW CHANCE
FURTHER EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. THE SFC TROUGH CROSSES THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL GREATLY
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUNTERACTING CLOUD COVER FROM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES TOO LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL JUMP SOUTHWARD FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORKWEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL LOOSE SOME OF ITS
ORGANIZATION...LIKELY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
POPS WILL ENTER THE HIGH END CHANCE RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY.
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OCCLUDE FROM THE BACKGROUND WESTERLIES AS
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. OPERATIONAL EURO AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HIGHEST QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW WELL OFF OF THE COAST...BUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE LOCALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOL AND BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
UP THE COAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL LEAD
TO CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
HAVE CAPPED GUSTS AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COOLER
WATERS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ003>007-009-
     010-501-502.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>053-501-502.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ503-504.
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ050>053-055-
     502>504.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ501-505-506.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GMS
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/CEB
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/CEB
MARINE...BJL/GMS/CEB









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