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000
FXUS61 KLWX 250750
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER THE POST-FRONTAL REPRIEVE YESTERDAY...OUR TEMPS WILL MAKE A
SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE THAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TURN TODAY...LEVELING-OFF THE TEMP INCREASE AND MAKING
TODAY LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. THE METRO AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
TOP-OUT IN THE M80S...WHILE L80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ATTM SHOWS OUR REGION AS THE "DRIEST"
IN THE COUNTRY - AT THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOS. THIS REGIONAL-SIZED
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE AREA AND
TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST.

AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD SLY AND AGAIN BEGIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
DEWPOINTS LATER TONIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE L60S FROM THE SHEN
VLY TOWARD THE EAST OVER TIME. NO SUBSTANTIAL WX-CHANGE FROM THIS
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL SET-UP THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO THE WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS - AND AN ACTIVE
ATMOS TO START THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...AND IT
WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR PROFILES DO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS A
QUESTION REGARDING THE COVERAGE BECAUSE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW...THERE IS AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION...THIS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AGAIN...THE EXTENT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW
ENOUGH...THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
CALM OB SITES AND THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE NRN VA VLY LOCATIONS W/ THE
PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG/LOW STRATUS. THE KCHO AREA PARTICULARLY
UNDER THE MOST FOG PRONE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AFTER THE LONGER PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN SOLID VFR W/ ONLY THE KCHO AREA WAVERING W/ THE
RECENT RAINFALL...LOW-LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLING AND TERRAIN-INDUCED VLY
FOG.

POST-SUNRISE THE LEFTOVER GROUND FOG WILL MIX-OUT AND TEMPS WILL
STAY AT A REASONABLE L-M80S FOR HIGHS. ONLY SCATTERED BATCH OF
CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN QUIET HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS APPEARING IN OBS OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEAK NLY
CHANNELING OVER THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SWITCH TOWARD SLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE
REGION AND THE OFF THE COAST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUSTS PAST SCA
CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST PAST SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
LOW FOR THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN
2008... 1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
CLIMATE...BJL/BAJ/CEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 250750
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
350 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER THE POST-FRONTAL REPRIEVE YESTERDAY...OUR TEMPS WILL MAKE A
SLIGHT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE THAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL TAKE A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TURN TODAY...LEVELING-OFF THE TEMP INCREASE AND MAKING
TODAY LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY. THE METRO AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
TOP-OUT IN THE M80S...WHILE L80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ATTM SHOWS OUR REGION AS THE "DRIEST"
IN THE COUNTRY - AT THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOS. THIS REGIONAL-SIZED
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN SOME OF THE DRIER AIR
THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE AREA AND
TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST.

AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN BACK
TOWARD SLY AND AGAIN BEGIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE.
DEWPOINTS LATER TONIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE L60S FROM THE SHEN
VLY TOWARD THE EAST OVER TIME. NO SUBSTANTIAL WX-CHANGE FROM THIS
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL SET-UP THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO THE WARMER/HUMID CONDITIONS - AND AN ACTIVE
ATMOS TO START THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING
MECHANISM...CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST...BUT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...AND IT
WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE
WITH SOME INSTABILITY FROM A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS TO BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR PROFILES DO
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS A
QUESTION REGARDING THE COVERAGE BECAUSE PLENTY OF HIGH AND MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW...THERE IS AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. WITH
PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION...THIS DOES POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
AGAIN...THE EXTENT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IF THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW
ENOUGH...THEN THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SINCE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NW FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SOME
CALM OB SITES AND THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE NRN VA VLY LOCATIONS W/ THE
PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG/LOW STRATUS. THE KCHO AREA PARTICULARLY
UNDER THE MOST FOG PRONE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AFTER THE LONGER PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM YESTERDAY`S ACTIVITY. CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN IN SOLID VFR W/ ONLY THE KCHO AREA WAVERING W/ THE
RECENT RAINFALL...LOW-LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLING AND TERRAIN-INDUCED VLY
FOG.

POST-SUNRISE THE LEFTOVER GROUND FOG WILL MIX-OUT AND TEMPS WILL
STAY AT A REASONABLE L-M80S FOR HIGHS. ONLY SCATTERED BATCH OF
CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN QUIET HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PASS THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS APPEARING IN OBS OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEAK NLY
CHANNELING OVER THE MAIN STEM OF THE MD BAY. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY
SWITCH TOWARD SLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH ROLLS OVER THE
REGION AND THE OFF THE COAST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY GUSTS PAST SCA
CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST PAST SCA CRITERIA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW A MILE AT
TIMES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RECORD
LOW FOR THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN
2008... 1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
CLIMATE...BJL/BAJ/CEB










000
FXUS61 KLWX 250159
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...RAIN HAS CLEARED THE THE CWA...DRY NRLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEWPTS HAVE
DROPPED IN THE 50S FOR CNTRL MD...DC...TO PETERSBURG VA...WITH MID
60S SOUTH OF THERE. DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. FCST MIN TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/SREF AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND NORTH OF BALTIMORE TO AROUND 60F IN INLAND AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
THERE...TO UPR 60S IN URBAN NEAR SHORE LOCALES. RECORD TYING
MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR BALTIMORE (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). ONE
FACTOR TO LIMIT TEMPS DECLINE IS CLOUDS WHICH ARE PROGRESSING
EAST...BUT MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A LIGHT RETURN FLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FCST MAX TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/GMOS AND ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A CU FIELD SHOULD
DEVELOP AS MOISTURE ALOFT PERSISTS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE REGION FRI
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CROSS NORTH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MAY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL INTO THE REGION WITH
INCREASE PWATS AND THETA-E ADVECTION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO TREK ITS WAY EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE
AND MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVELS MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE
FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW THURSDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME. SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AND COULD SPAWN A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CENTER OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY. NLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...BUT AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD GET FOG. WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS FOR KCHO AND SEE
A REPORT OF IFR BR ALREADY...WILL HAVE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR
THIS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE BAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
NLY CHANNELING IS INCREASING WITH AN EARLIER SCA FOR POOLES ISLAND
TO DRUM PT BASED ON THE 18Z NAM FORECAST. THE SCA EXPANDS TO
INCLUDE SRN MD WATERS BY 2AM AND CONTINUES UNTIL 8AM. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRI AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI TONIGHT. THE RECORD LOW FOR
THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN 2008...
1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-
     537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/KLW
CLIMATE...BAJ/CEB








000
FXUS61 KLWX 250159
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
959 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...RAIN HAS CLEARED THE THE CWA...DRY NRLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DEWPTS HAVE
DROPPED IN THE 50S FOR CNTRL MD...DC...TO PETERSBURG VA...WITH MID
60S SOUTH OF THERE. DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. FCST MIN TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/SREF AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND NORTH OF BALTIMORE TO AROUND 60F IN INLAND AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF
THERE...TO UPR 60S IN URBAN NEAR SHORE LOCALES. RECORD TYING
MIN TEMP FORECAST FOR BALTIMORE (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). ONE
FACTOR TO LIMIT TEMPS DECLINE IS CLOUDS WHICH ARE PROGRESSING
EAST...BUT MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
A LIGHT RETURN FLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. FCST MAX TEMPS A BLEND OF
MAV/MET/GMOS AND ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A CU FIELD SHOULD
DEVELOP AS MOISTURE ALOFT PERSISTS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE REGION FRI
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CROSS NORTH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MAY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL INTO THE REGION WITH
INCREASE PWATS AND THETA-E ADVECTION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO TREK ITS WAY EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE
AND MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVELS MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE
FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW THURSDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME. SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AND COULD SPAWN A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CENTER OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY. NLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY...BUT AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN COULD GET FOG. WENT WITH MVFR VSBYS FOR KCHO AND SEE
A REPORT OF IFR BR ALREADY...WILL HAVE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MONITOR
THIS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE BAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
NLY CHANNELING IS INCREASING WITH AN EARLIER SCA FOR POOLES ISLAND
TO DRUM PT BASED ON THE 18Z NAM FORECAST. THE SCA EXPANDS TO
INCLUDE SRN MD WATERS BY 2AM AND CONTINUES UNTIL 8AM. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRI AFTERNOON. SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
59 DEGREES IS THE FORECAST FOR BWI TONIGHT. THE RECORD LOW FOR
THE THREADED BALTIMORE CLIMATE RECORD IS 59...SET IN 2008...
1976...1973...AND 1876.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ531>533-
     539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-
     537-542-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/KLW
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/KLW
CLIMATE...BAJ/CEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 241846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WV AND CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE E-SE AND STAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
IN SRN VA. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REGION IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
ARE STILL TAPPING INTO 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND TRACKED E-SE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD AND BE NON-
SEVERE IN THIS REGION.

DRY NRLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE 50S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO
THE UPPER 60S AT CHO. DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. FCST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP AS MOISTURE ALOFT PERSISTS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS MOISTURE CREEPS INTO
THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CROSS NORTH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MAY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL INTO THE REGION WITH
INCREASE PWATS AND THETA-E ADVECTION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO TREK ITS WAY EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE
AND MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVELS MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE
FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW THURSDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME. SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AND COULD SPAWN A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN VA MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE BAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS TODAY.
NORTHERLY CHANNELING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DURING
THIS TIME FOR THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRI AFTERNOON.
SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO WV AND CONVECTION
HAS INITIATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE E-SE AND STAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
IN SRN VA. THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT REGION IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
ARE STILL TAPPING INTO 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND TRACKED E-SE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD AND BE NON-
SEVERE IN THIS REGION.

DRY NRLY FLOW HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE 50S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO
THE UPPER 60S AT CHO. DEWPTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. FCST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. A
CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP AS MOISTURE ALOFT PERSISTS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS AS MOISTURE CREEPS INTO
THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CROSS NORTH OF
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MAY
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL INTO THE REGION WITH
INCREASE PWATS AND THETA-E ADVECTION. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
PASSING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO TREK ITS WAY EASTWARD...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE
AND MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVELS MAY BE STRONGER THAN RECENT DAYS.

AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO
THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE
FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW THURSDAY WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OFFSHORE BY THIS TIME. SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD AND COULD SPAWN A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN VA MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N AT 5-10 KTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
NEAR THE BAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 10 KNOTS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WATERS TODAY.
NORTHERLY CHANNELING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT DURING
THIS TIME FOR THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND AND THE
LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY
AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRI AFTERNOON.
SRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW









000
FXUS61 KLWX 241433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE. A SCA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 241433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE. A SCA ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF POOLES ISLAND AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ531>534-537-539>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241421
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/HAS
MARINE...BJL/GMS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 241421
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1021 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE MID
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. A SFC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN VA
WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG CONVECTION ARE TAKING PLACE. LIGHT
NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LED TO A SLOW DRYING PROCESS AT THE
SFC. DEWPTS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE
70S NEAR CHO.

AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE W-SW FLOW ALOFT...A
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS
WV/SW VA. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SINCE DEWPTS
ARE STILL HIGH. PER THE 12Z IAD RAOB AND RNK RAOB...INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT AND INCREASES TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHER DEWPTS. A FEW
SHOWERS W ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER NORTH...NRLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY ADVECT DRY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A
STIFF NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ANNAPOLIS AND DC SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH. NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WIND CHANNELS DOWN THE BAY. A BRIEF RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE
NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA
RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS/HAS
MARINE...BJL/GMS/HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 240753
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
353 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNLIKE MOST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...ANOTHER SECONDARY WAVE OF
MOISTURE IS MOVING THRU BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HERE IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS MORE OF A WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT W/
VERY LITTLE AIRMASS CHANCE BEHIND IT OTHER THAN COOLER TEMPS. THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS IS IN TWO SEPARATE UPPER WAVES.
THE FIRST IS STILL BACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE SECOND IS
ABOUT A TIER OF STATES FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTH. EACH OF THESE WILL
EVENTUALLY SWEEP REINFORCING COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOWN FROM THE
NW...BUT THE MOIST AND GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH THE
CWA HAS BEEN LARGELY DRY BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE LATE LAST
EVENING. THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE RECEIVING SOME OF THIS
SLOW-MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE PREDAWN HRS. EMBEDDED AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MOST
LOCALES WILL JUST SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE COMING HRS. AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE EAST...THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND DRY THE AREA OUT. THE SRN HALF...CLOSER TO
THE LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARY - WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONLY INTO THE
EVE HRS WILL PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-66 CORRIDOR.

A SOLID NLY BREEZE WILL COME OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...W/ THE
DRY AND COOL FLOW PUSHING ACROSS THE BALT/DC AREA LATER THIS AFTN.
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW SLIDING FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLC
AND NOW REACHING THE DC/BALT METRO AREAS TOWARD THE PREDAWN HRS.
ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THE TWO MAIN CLOUD DECKS ARE
ROUGHLY 5KFT AND 10KFT...W/ THE HIGHER ONE BEING THE PREDOMINANT
ONE. ONLY THE KCHO AREA WILL SEE THE LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND W/ MORE PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL LATER THIS EVE. A COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A STIFF
NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT. PRECIP WILL
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/ CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE...SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EARLY MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRECEDE A SEVERAL-HR PERIOD OF NLY FLOW...PUSHING A GENERAL 10-15KT
WIND CHANNELING DOWN THE STEM OF THE MD BAY THIS AFTN/EVE. A BRIEF
RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 240753
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
353 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UNLIKE MOST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...ANOTHER SECONDARY WAVE OF
MOISTURE IS MOVING THRU BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HERE IN THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS MORE OF A WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT W/
VERY LITTLE AIRMASS CHANCE BEHIND IT OTHER THAN COOLER TEMPS. THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS IS IN TWO SEPARATE UPPER WAVES.
THE FIRST IS STILL BACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE SECOND IS
ABOUT A TIER OF STATES FURTHER BACK TO THE NORTH. EACH OF THESE WILL
EVENTUALLY SWEEP REINFORCING COOLER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOWN FROM THE
NW...BUT THE MOIST AND GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE MASON-DIXON LINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...THOUGH THE
CWA HAS BEEN LARGELY DRY BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE LATE LAST
EVENING. THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE RECEIVING SOME OF THIS
SLOW-MOVING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE PREDAWN HRS. EMBEDDED AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MOST
LOCALES WILL JUST SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE COMING HRS. AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE EAST...THE FIRST UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA AND DRY THE AREA OUT. THE SRN HALF...CLOSER TO
THE LEFTOVER SFC BOUNDARY - WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONLY INTO THE
EVE HRS WILL PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-66 CORRIDOR.

A SOLID NLY BREEZE WILL COME OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA...W/ THE
DRY AND COOL FLOW PUSHING ACROSS THE BALT/DC AREA LATER THIS AFTN.
TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE IT INTO THE L-M80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE M50S OR LOWER THIS AFTN
WHICH IS A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID FEEL TO THE AIR THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEAR-10 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINTS WILL REFLECT IN
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL ON THU NIGHT/FRI MRNG. TEMPS ACROSS THE
NRN HALF WILL DROP TO THE L60S AND SOME U50S...WHILE THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH/EAST WILL SEE LOWS IN THE L-M60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD SO DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. A SCT/BKN CU DECK
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE IT FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN WARMER AND A BIT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE UPPER-
LEVELS AND LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW SLIDING FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLC
AND NOW REACHING THE DC/BALT METRO AREAS TOWARD THE PREDAWN HRS.
ONLY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THE TWO MAIN CLOUD DECKS ARE
ROUGHLY 5KFT AND 10KFT...W/ THE HIGHER ONE BEING THE PREDOMINANT
ONE. ONLY THE KCHO AREA WILL SEE THE LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND W/ MORE PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL LATER THIS EVE. A COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY USHER-IN A STIFF
NW-NLY BREEZE LATER THIS MRNG. THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND EAST W/ A GENERAL N WIND NEAR 10KT. PRECIP WILL
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT W/ CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TOWARD FRI MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE...SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EARLY MRNG. A COLD FRONT WILL
PRECEDE A SEVERAL-HR PERIOD OF NLY FLOW...PUSHING A GENERAL 10-15KT
WIND CHANNELING DOWN THE STEM OF THE MD BAY THIS AFTN/EVE. A BRIEF
RESPITE AND THEN SOME MORE NLY CHANNELING OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR BUT BELOW SCA RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST PAST
SCA CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 240020
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
820 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

COLD FRONT PRSNTLY PUSHING THRU THE AREA. WINDS GNRLY IN THE 25-35
KT RANGE...BUT THIS HAS BEEN ENUF TO CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PA BORDER.

TEMPS REACHED M90S AT MANY LOCALES TDA...BUT AIR MASS IS BEGINNING
TO CHG IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. IT
WONT BE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 80 DEGREES THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY RESULTING IN CALM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...FROM THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL PIVOT AROUND THE MAIN STORM...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

AS THE MAIN STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVRNGT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT BUT
SHRA AND VCTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. SMW WINDS HV BEEN XPCRNCD ON THE NRN
BAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION ATTM. SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING AS NRLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HAS/KLW









000
FXUS61 KLWX 240020
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
820 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

COLD FRONT PRSNTLY PUSHING THRU THE AREA. WINDS GNRLY IN THE 25-35
KT RANGE...BUT THIS HAS BEEN ENUF TO CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PA BORDER.

TEMPS REACHED M90S AT MANY LOCALES TDA...BUT AIR MASS IS BEGINNING
TO CHG IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. IT
WONT BE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 80 DEGREES THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY RESULTING IN CALM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...FROM THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL PIVOT AROUND THE MAIN STORM...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

AS THE MAIN STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVRNGT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT BUT
SHRA AND VCTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. SMW WINDS HV BEEN XPCRNCD ON THE NRN
BAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION ATTM. SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING AS NRLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HAS/KLW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 231851
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND
AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS TO THE EAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
2K-3K J/KG. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN FULL
SUNSHINE TODAY. AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR SAW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE NOT YET REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMP. ALL SHOULD BE FILLED IN
WITH CU SOON. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100.

A STABLE LAYER AT 650MB PER 12Z IAD RAOB WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LEE TROUGH PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
INITIATE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING
ALOFT...A INVERSION AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON... ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND SUB-SEVERE. LATER
TODAY...AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DMG
WINDS. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE FZL...LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING LAG BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY. IT WONT BE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 80 DEGREES THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY RESULTING IN CALM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...FROM THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OVER PARTS OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OTHERWISE.

UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL PIVOT AROUND THE MAIN STORM...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

AS THE MAIN STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCT SHRA AND SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT BUT SHRA AND VCTS
ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SMW`S ARE
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A SCA IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING AS NRLY
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND ONE-HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...SO ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 231851
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND
AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A BERMUDA HIGH PERSISTS TO THE EAST
WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
2K-3K J/KG. A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN FULL
SUNSHINE TODAY. AREAS THAT ARE CLEAR SAW CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
HAVE NOT YET REACHED THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMP. ALL SHOULD BE FILLED IN
WITH CU SOON. FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 90S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDICES NEAR 100.

A STABLE LAYER AT 650MB PER 12Z IAD RAOB WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LEE TROUGH PRESENT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
INITIATE NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING
ALOFT...A INVERSION AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON... ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED AND SUB-SEVERE. LATER
TODAY...AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING DMG
WINDS. DUE TO THE HEIGHT OF THE FZL...LARGE HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING LAG BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY. IT WONT BE UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 80 DEGREES THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY RESULTING IN CALM AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US DRY FRIDAY NIGHT...FROM THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OVER PARTS OF
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OTHERWISE.

UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.

THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL PIVOT AROUND THE MAIN STORM...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

AS THE MAIN STORM MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TO THE EAST
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PERHAPS ONE FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE REGION.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER AND COOLER WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCT SHRA AND SCT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
ACTIVITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT BUT SHRA AND VCTS
ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR CHO AND MRB TERMINALS.

IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE LIKELY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SMW`S ARE
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND A SCA IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING AS NRLY
WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND ONE-HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE FLOW WILL TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...SO ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HAS/KLW
MARINE...HAS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND
AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG LK ONTARIO AND LK ERIE ACROSS CENTRAL
IN/IL THIS MORNING WHILE THE MID-ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BERMUDA HIGH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS ALREADY AROUND 80
AS OF 9AM...82 AT DCA...80 AT BWI AND DEWPTS AROUND 70. THIS HAS
LED TO AROUND 500 J/KG THIS MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE AS TEMPS
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE LEE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE DEFINED BY THE
AFTERNOON. A QUIET MORNING IS EXPECTED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE
EAST IS DOMINATING WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT. PER THE 12Z IAD
RAOB...0-6KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 10KTS AND A STABLE LAYER EXISTS
AT 650MB WHICH WILL INHIBIT UPDRAFTS THAT DO TRY AND FORM ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH. THAT BEING SAID...CU FIELD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST INCREASING FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
FORM THIS AFTERNOON FROM PBZ TO RLX AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. DMG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. 80S WILL STILL DOT THE MAP WELL AFT SUNSET BUT
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP OVER THE
NWRN PART OF THE AREA AS DRIER NW WINDS TAKE DOWN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. A SCT TO BKN CU
DECK SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD. TERRAIN CIRCULATION COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY FOR NOW THINKING THAT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING
FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SUNDAY. A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE HUMIDITY TO RETURN
DURING THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SHEAR
PROFILES AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE
UPPER LEVELS AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THESE REASONS SUNDAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE KEEPING THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
MOIST AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE TYPICAL TERRAIN
CIRCULATIONS OCCURRING OVER THE APLCNS TO THE WEST OF THE METRO
AREAS...WHEN THERE IS A LARGE OFFSHORE HIGH AS THERE IS CURRENTLY.
THE MTNS RECEIVE PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE W/
MOISTURE...HELPING TO MAKE SCATTERED BATCHES OF MID-LEVEL DECKS.
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER EAST...AS IT WILL REMAIN SO IN THE COMING HRS.

ONLY THE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MID-LATE MRNG WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY HELP
W/ ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER TODAY...AS THE WINDS IN THE COLUMN
INCREASE - ALBEIT SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY. INCOMING 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
MORE OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE OUT
OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING SFC FLOW OUT
OF THE NW AND NORTH...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY END THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAKING ONGOING ACTIVITY TURN
INTO SHOWERS.

SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BEING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY BR MAY CAUSE SUBVFR VSBYS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE LOWER TO
MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ATTM...W/ ONLY SOME SLY CHANNELING
ACROSS THE MID-BAY REGION. THIS REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...EVEN AS PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. A FEW NEAR-SCA GUSTS
MAY APPEAR LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...10-15KT OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO GUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND PERHAPS EVEN TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THIS TIME. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND ONE-HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAX HIGH TIDE WILL
BE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL
TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND
AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG LK ONTARIO AND LK ERIE ACROSS CENTRAL
IN/IL THIS MORNING WHILE THE MID-ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BERMUDA HIGH.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPS ALREADY AROUND 80
AS OF 9AM...82 AT DCA...80 AT BWI AND DEWPTS AROUND 70. THIS HAS
LED TO AROUND 500 J/KG THIS MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE AS TEMPS
REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE LEE TROUGH IS
LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE DEFINED BY THE
AFTERNOON. A QUIET MORNING IS EXPECTED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE
EAST IS DOMINATING WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT. PER THE 12Z IAD
RAOB...0-6KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 10KTS AND A STABLE LAYER EXISTS
AT 650MB WHICH WILL INHIBIT UPDRAFTS THAT DO TRY AND FORM ALONG
THE LEE TROUGH. THAT BEING SAID...CU FIELD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
FORM BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE DAY CONTINUES...THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST INCREASING FLOW ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
FORM THIS AFTERNOON FROM PBZ TO RLX AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD
REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. DMG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. 80S WILL STILL DOT THE MAP WELL AFT SUNSET BUT
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP OVER THE
NWRN PART OF THE AREA AS DRIER NW WINDS TAKE DOWN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. A SCT TO BKN CU
DECK SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD. TERRAIN CIRCULATION COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY FOR NOW THINKING THAT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING
FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SUNDAY. A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE HUMIDITY TO RETURN
DURING THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SHEAR
PROFILES AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE
UPPER LEVELS AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THESE REASONS SUNDAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE KEEPING THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
MOIST AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE TYPICAL TERRAIN
CIRCULATIONS OCCURRING OVER THE APLCNS TO THE WEST OF THE METRO
AREAS...WHEN THERE IS A LARGE OFFSHORE HIGH AS THERE IS CURRENTLY.
THE MTNS RECEIVE PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE W/
MOISTURE...HELPING TO MAKE SCATTERED BATCHES OF MID-LEVEL DECKS.
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER EAST...AS IT WILL REMAIN SO IN THE COMING HRS.

ONLY THE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MID-LATE MRNG WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY HELP
W/ ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER TODAY...AS THE WINDS IN THE COLUMN
INCREASE - ALBEIT SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY. INCOMING 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
MORE OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE OUT
OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING SFC FLOW OUT
OF THE NW AND NORTH...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY END THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAKING ONGOING ACTIVITY TURN
INTO SHOWERS.

SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BEING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY BR MAY CAUSE SUBVFR VSBYS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE LOWER TO
MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ATTM...W/ ONLY SOME SLY CHANNELING
ACROSS THE MID-BAY REGION. THIS REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...EVEN AS PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. A FEW NEAR-SCA GUSTS
MAY APPEAR LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...10-15KT OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO GUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND PERHAPS EVEN TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THIS TIME. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND ONE-HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAX HIGH TIDE WILL
BE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL
TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX










000
FXUS61 KLWX 230819 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
419 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND
AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AND A STALLED UPPER TROUGH
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY
DIGGING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA - READY FOR A PASSAGE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH...NOT ONLY IN
AMBIENT TEMPS BUT CONSIDERING REL HUMIDITIES AS WELL. DEWPOINTS
WON`T STRAY FAR FROM THE L70S ALL-DAY AND EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AMPLE NEAR-SFC MOISTURE FOR THE QUICK
DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS GIVEN A PRE-EXISTING OR INCOMING SFC
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. BY ITSELF...THE INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR INITIATION...EVEN W/ TEMPS REACHING
THE L90S DURING THE MID-AFTN. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...A
WARM NOSE IN THE 10-15KFT REGION OVERHEAD MAY KEEP UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE...EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS BEING
BROKEN.

LACK OF SHEAR WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. A WEAK COLUMN EXISTS OVERHEAD...W/ OUR AREA STILL ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LITTLE/NO DYNAMIC FEATURES
NEARBY. A SERIES OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ATTM...BUT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY TOWARD THE CNTRL APLCNS AND EVENTUALLY OVER OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVE/TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BE SLOW-MOVING AND
WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. BEFORE
THEN...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTN HRS W/
AMPLE SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BUT A CUMULUS FIELD WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AND DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL START TO CREATE THE
TYPICAL BAY BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

LOCAL HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A MID-AFTN INITIATION OF
DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR W/IN A COUNTY OF THE
NRN VA BLUE RIDGE - LIKELY W/ A PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH AXIS. THE
ACTIVITY WOULD THEN DRIFT SE OVER TIME AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP NEW
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CELLS FURTHER EAST/SE. CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEFORE 18Z
ARE SLIM BUT A BOUNDARY SUCH AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP QUICKLY
ELEVATE THE RISK OF TSTMS. HOWEVER...STILL NOT A STRONG SIGNAL
TOWARD THIS...ESPEC W/ MINIMAL SHEAR - ONLY ABOUT 15KT BULK IN THE
MID LEVELS AND POSSIBLY 5KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...TOUGH TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS IN THAT ENVIRONMENT.

HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS...AS SHEAR SLOWLY BUT SURELY
BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NW...THE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. HEATING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVE - STILL BEING LATE JULY W/ THE
LONGER DAYTIME PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MORE
DYNAMIC SHEAR ARRIVES AND BEGINS TO SHAPE ONGOING ACTIVITY. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...W/ THE PROFILE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL W/ SUCH SHORT-LIVED AND WEAKLY FORCED UPDRAFTS.

TONIGHT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. 80S WILL STILL DOT THE MAP WELL AFT SUNSET BUT
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP OVER THE
NWRN PART OF THE AREA AS DRIER NW WINDS TAKE DOWN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. A SCT TO BKN CU
DECK SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD. TERRAIN CIRCULATION COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY FOR NOW THINKING THAT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING
FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SUNDAY. A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE HUMIDITY TO RETURN
DURING THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SHEAR
PROFILES AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE
UPPER LEVELS AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THESE REASONS SUNDAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE KEEPING THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
MOIST AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE TYPICAL TERRAIN
CIRCULATIONS OCCURRING OVER THE APLCNS TO THE WEST OF THE METRO
AREAS...WHEN THERE IS A LARGE OFFSHORE HIGH AS THERE IS CURRENTLY.
THE MTNS RECEIVE PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE W/
MOISTURE...HELPING TO MAKE SCATTERED BATCHES OF MID-LEVEL DECKS.
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER EAST...AS IT WILL REMAIN SO IN THE COMING HRS.

ONLY THE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MID-LATE MRNG WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY HELP
W/ ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER TODAY...AS THE WINDS IN THE COLUMN
INCREASE - ALBEIT SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY. INCOMING 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
MORE OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE OUT
OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING SFC FLOW OUT
OF THE NW AND NORTH...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY END THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAKING ONGOING ACTIVITY TURN
INTO SHOWERS.

SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BEING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY BR MAY CAUSE SUBVFR VSBYS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE LOWER TO
MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ATTM...W/ ONLY SOME SLY CHANNELING
ACROSS THE MID-BAY REGION. THIS REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...EVEN AS PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. A FEW NEAR-SCA GUSTS
MAY APPEAR LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...10-15KT OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO GUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND PERHAPS EVEN TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THIS TIME. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND ONE-HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAX HIGH TIDE WILL
BE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL
TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 230819 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
419 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND
AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AND A STALLED UPPER TROUGH
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY
DIGGING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA - READY FOR A PASSAGE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH...NOT ONLY IN
AMBIENT TEMPS BUT CONSIDERING REL HUMIDITIES AS WELL. DEWPOINTS
WON`T STRAY FAR FROM THE L70S ALL-DAY AND EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AMPLE NEAR-SFC MOISTURE FOR THE QUICK
DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS GIVEN A PRE-EXISTING OR INCOMING SFC
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. BY ITSELF...THE INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR INITIATION...EVEN W/ TEMPS REACHING
THE L90S DURING THE MID-AFTN. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...A
WARM NOSE IN THE 10-15KFT REGION OVERHEAD MAY KEEP UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE...EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS BEING
BROKEN.

LACK OF SHEAR WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. A WEAK COLUMN EXISTS OVERHEAD...W/ OUR AREA STILL ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LITTLE/NO DYNAMIC FEATURES
NEARBY. A SERIES OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ATTM...BUT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY TOWARD THE CNTRL APLCNS AND EVENTUALLY OVER OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVE/TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BE SLOW-MOVING AND
WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. BEFORE
THEN...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTN HRS W/
AMPLE SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BUT A CUMULUS FIELD WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AND DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL START TO CREATE THE
TYPICAL BAY BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

LOCAL HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A MID-AFTN INITIATION OF
DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR W/IN A COUNTY OF THE
NRN VA BLUE RIDGE - LIKELY W/ A PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH AXIS. THE
ACTIVITY WOULD THEN DRIFT SE OVER TIME AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP NEW
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CELLS FURTHER EAST/SE. CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEFORE 18Z
ARE SLIM BUT A BOUNDARY SUCH AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP QUICKLY
ELEVATE THE RISK OF TSTMS. HOWEVER...STILL NOT A STRONG SIGNAL
TOWARD THIS...ESPEC W/ MINIMAL SHEAR - ONLY ABOUT 15KT BULK IN THE
MID LEVELS AND POSSIBLY 5KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...TOUGH TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS IN THAT ENVIRONMENT.

HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS...AS SHEAR SLOWLY BUT SURELY
BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NW...THE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. HEATING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVE - STILL BEING LATE JULY W/ THE
LONGER DAYTIME PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MORE
DYNAMIC SHEAR ARRIVES AND BEGINS TO SHAPE ONGOING ACTIVITY. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...W/ THE PROFILE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL W/ SUCH SHORT-LIVED AND WEAKLY FORCED UPDRAFTS.

TONIGHT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. 80S WILL STILL DOT THE MAP WELL AFT SUNSET BUT
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP OVER THE
NWRN PART OF THE AREA AS DRIER NW WINDS TAKE DOWN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. A SCT TO BKN CU
DECK SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD. TERRAIN CIRCULATION COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY FOR NOW THINKING THAT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING
FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SUNDAY. A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE HUMIDITY TO RETURN
DURING THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SHEAR
PROFILES AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE
UPPER LEVELS AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THESE REASONS SUNDAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE KEEPING THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
MOIST AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE TYPICAL TERRAIN
CIRCULATIONS OCCURRING OVER THE APLCNS TO THE WEST OF THE METRO
AREAS...WHEN THERE IS A LARGE OFFSHORE HIGH AS THERE IS CURRENTLY.
THE MTNS RECEIVE PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE W/
MOISTURE...HELPING TO MAKE SCATTERED BATCHES OF MID-LEVEL DECKS.
MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER EAST...AS IT WILL REMAIN SO IN THE COMING HRS.

ONLY THE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MID-LATE MRNG WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY HELP
W/ ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER TODAY...AS THE WINDS IN THE COLUMN
INCREASE - ALBEIT SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY. INCOMING 20-30KT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE INCREASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER
MORE OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE OUT
OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TURNING SFC FLOW OUT
OF THE NW AND NORTH...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY LIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO
SLOWLY END THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MAKING ONGOING ACTIVITY TURN
INTO SHOWERS.

SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BEING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY BR MAY CAUSE SUBVFR VSBYS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE LOWER TO
MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS ATTM...W/ ONLY SOME SLY CHANNELING
ACROSS THE MID-BAY REGION. THIS REGIME WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...EVEN AS PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. A FEW NEAR-SCA GUSTS
MAY APPEAR LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA...10-15KT OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO GUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND PERHAPS EVEN TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THIS TIME. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND ONE-HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAX HIGH TIDE WILL
BE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL
TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND
AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AND A STALLED UPPER TROUGH
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY
DIGGING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA - READY FOR A PASSAGE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH...NOT ONLY IN
AMBIENT TEMPS BUT CONSIDERING REL HUMIDITIES AS WELL. DEWPOINTS
WON`T STRAY FAR FROM THE L70S ALL-DAY AND EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AMPLE NEAR-SFC MOISTURE FOR THE QUICK
DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS GIVEN A PRE-EXISTING OR INCOMING SFC
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. BY ITSELF...THE INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR INITIATION...EVEN W/ TEMPS REACHING
THE L90S DURING THE MID-AFTN. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...A
WARM NOSE IN THE 10-15KFT REGION OVERHEAD MAY KEEP UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE...EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS BEING
BROKEN.

LACK OF SHEAR WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. A WEAK COLUMN EXISTS OVERHEAD...W/ OUR AREA STILL ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LITTLE/NO DYNAMIC FEATURES
NEARBY. A SERIES OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ATTM...BUT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY TOWARD THE CNTRL APLCNS AND EVENTUALLY OVER OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVE/TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BE SLOW-MOVING AND
WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. BEFORE
THEN...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTN HRS W/
AMPLE SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BUT A CUMULUS FIELD WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AND DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL START TO CREATE THE
TYPICAL BAY BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

LOCAL HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A MID-AFTN INITIATION OF
DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR W/IN A COUNTY OF THE
NRN VA BLUE RIDGE - LIKELY W/ A PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH AXIS. THE
ACTIVITY WOULD THEN DRIFT SE OVER TIME AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP NEW
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CELLS FURTHER EAST/SE. CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEFORE 18Z
ARE SLIM BUT A BOUNDARY SUCH AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP QUICKLY
ELEVATE THE RISK OF TSTMS. HOWEVER...STILL NOT A STRONG SIGNAL
TOWARD THIS...ESPEC W/ MINIMAL SHEAR - ONLY ABOUT 15KT BULK IN THE
MID LEVELS AND POSSIBLY 5KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...TOUGH TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS IN THAT ENVIRONMENT.

HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS...AS SHEAR SLOWLY BUT SURELY
BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NW...THE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. HEATING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVE - STILL BEING LATE JULY W/ THE
LONGER DAYTIME PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MORE
DYNAMIC SHEAR ARRIVES AND BEGINS TO SHAPE ONGOING ACTIVITY. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...W/ THE PROFILE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL W/ SUCH SHORT-LIVED AND WEAKLY FORCED UPDRAFTS.

TONIGHT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. 80S WILL STILL DOT THE MAP WELL AFT SUNSET BUT
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP OVER THE
NWRN PART OF THE AREA AS DRIER NW WINDS TAKE DOWN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. A SCT TO BKN CU
DECK SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD. TERRAIN CIRCULATION COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY FOR NOW THINKING THAT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING
FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SUNDAY. A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE HUMIDITY TO RETURN
DURING THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SHEAR
PROFILES AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE
UPPER LEVELS AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THESE REASONS SUNDAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY BR IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
BEING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SUBVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY BR MAY CAUSE SUBVFR VSBYS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE LOWER TO
MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO GUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND PERHAPS EVEN TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THIS TIME. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND ONE-HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAX HIGH TIDE WILL
BE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL
TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THIS
TIME.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND
AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST AND A STALLED UPPER TROUGH
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY
DIGGING DOWN TOWARD THE AREA - READY FOR A PASSAGE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH...NOT ONLY IN
AMBIENT TEMPS BUT CONSIDERING REL HUMIDITIES AS WELL. DEWPOINTS
WON`T STRAY FAR FROM THE L70S ALL-DAY AND EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HRS TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE AMPLE NEAR-SFC MOISTURE FOR THE QUICK
DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS GIVEN A PRE-EXISTING OR INCOMING SFC
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. BY ITSELF...THE INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME
HEATING MAY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR INITIATION...EVEN W/ TEMPS REACHING
THE L90S DURING THE MID-AFTN. DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...A
WARM NOSE IN THE 10-15KFT REGION OVERHEAD MAY KEEP UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE...EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS BEING
BROKEN.

LACK OF SHEAR WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. A WEAK COLUMN EXISTS OVERHEAD...W/ OUR AREA STILL ON THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LITTLE/NO DYNAMIC FEATURES
NEARBY. A SERIES OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ATTM...BUT WILL ONLY GRADUALLY WORK
THEIR WAY TOWARD THE CNTRL APLCNS AND EVENTUALLY OVER OUR AREA LATER
THIS EVE/TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BE SLOW-MOVING AND
WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. BEFORE
THEN...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTN HRS W/
AMPLE SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY BUT A CUMULUS FIELD WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP AND DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL START TO CREATE THE
TYPICAL BAY BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

LOCAL HI-RES WRF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A MID-AFTN INITIATION OF
DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR W/IN A COUNTY OF THE
NRN VA BLUE RIDGE - LIKELY W/ A PRE-FRONTAL LEE TROUGH AXIS. THE
ACTIVITY WOULD THEN DRIFT SE OVER TIME AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP NEW
OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CELLS FURTHER EAST/SE. CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEFORE 18Z
ARE SLIM BUT A BOUNDARY SUCH AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP QUICKLY
ELEVATE THE RISK OF TSTMS. HOWEVER...STILL NOT A STRONG SIGNAL
TOWARD THIS...ESPEC W/ MINIMAL SHEAR - ONLY ABOUT 15KT BULK IN THE
MID LEVELS AND POSSIBLY 5KT IN THE LOW LEVELS...TOUGH TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS IN THAT ENVIRONMENT.

HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS...AS SHEAR SLOWLY BUT SURELY
BEGINS TO ARRIVE FROM THE NW...THE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. HEATING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVE - STILL BEING LATE JULY W/ THE
LONGER DAYTIME PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY HIGH...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG AND EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MORE
DYNAMIC SHEAR ARRIVES AND BEGINS TO SHAPE ONGOING ACTIVITY. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...W/ THE PROFILE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL W/ SUCH SHORT-LIVED AND WEAKLY FORCED UPDRAFTS.

TONIGHT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH...TEMPS WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. 80S WILL STILL DOT THE MAP WELL AFT SUNSET BUT
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW...TEMPS WILL SLOWLY DROP OVER THE
NWRN PART OF THE AREA AS DRIER NW WINDS TAKE DOWN TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. A SCT TO BKN CU
DECK SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD. TERRAIN CIRCULATION COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SHOWER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY FOR NOW THINKING THAT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING
FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...AND IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SUNDAY. A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE HUMIDITY TO RETURN
DURING THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE SHEAR
PROFILES AND CARVE OUT A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE
UPPER LEVELS AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THESE REASONS SUNDAY. A
POTENT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PATCHY BR IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KMRB.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

SUBVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
BEING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SUBVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY BR MAY CAUSE SUBVFR VSBYS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE LOWER TO
MOVE IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CAUSE MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
WATERS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE BAY AND
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
MAY CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS TO GUST NEAR SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
WEAKEN AND PERHAPS EVEN TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN DURING THIS TIME. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WATERS MONDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS.



&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND ONE-HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAX HIGH TIDE WILL
BE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WATER LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER
OF THE TWO SO MINOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FLOW WILL
TURN OFFSHORE BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...SO ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THIS
TIME.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 230111
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTS IN THE WRN ATLC OFF THE MID ATLC/CAROLINA
COAST. SHRA HV BEEN LMTD...RELEGATED MAINLY TO THE APLCN RDGS.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THERE SHUDNT BE MUCH MORE TO
THEIR LIFESPAN. FOR THAT MATTER...CLDS HV BEEN LESS XTNSV THAN
LAST NGT. SINCE THERE/S LESS INFLUENCE FM THE SERN CONUS
DISTURBANCE /DRY AIR AHD OF THE NXT CDFNT HAS BEEN SHUNTED SEWD
OVER CWFA/...THINK THERE WL BE LESS CLDCVR. THAT POSES MORE FOG
CONCERNS INSTEAD. GNLY GOING A MORE OPTIMISTIC RTE...AS PATCHY FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MTN/FOOTHILL VLYS...BUT AM KEEPING THE I-95
CRRDR FOG-FREE. WNDS HVNT DCPLD YET...AND THE LGT SLY FLOW/UPR
60S-LWR 70S DEWPTS NOT GREAT FOR RADL COOLING. MAY HV TO NUDGE
MIN-T GRID UPWD DUE TO THOSE DEWPTS.

WEDNESDAY STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
THE THE SAME REGION. COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...LIFT AND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MD AND
THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAM BY LATE IN THE DAY. DAMAGING WINDS IS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD
ACCORDINGLY. SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...AS BETTER DYNAMICS WILL
BE OFFSET BY LOWER NIGHTTIME INSTABILITY. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER EASTERN WV...BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT WITH A N-NW FLOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WX IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER SRN MD AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVOLVE...THUS PERHAPS
SPAWNING A SHOWER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT.

DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ROTATE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THUS...BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND IT AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONCE AGAIN...WILL BECOME A
NUISANCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MOIST AIR OVER THE
REGION. HV CONFINED THE VSBY RESTICTIONS TO CHO-MRB...AWAY FM THE
HUBS. ITS NOT BYD THE REALM OF PSBLTY THAT MVFR VSBYS CUD OCCUR AT
IAD TOO...OR THAT MRB-CHO MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU. AN
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL PUSH UP THE HEAT/HUMIDITY BEFORE TSTMS
ARRIVE/DEVELOP...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU...SWEEPING THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING HAS COME UP THE CHSPK BAY...PLACING TPLM2 AT THE
DOORSTEP OF SCA. WRF-ARW4 HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE REST...AND
LTST RUNS HV BEEN STRONGER STILL...BUT EVEN IT SUGGESTING THAT THE
PEAK OCCURRING ATTM...W/ WNDS BLO ANY CRIT LVL BY 02-03Z.
THEREFORE...OPTED FOR MARINE WX STMT VS A TARGETED SCA.

SLY WNDS ARND 10 KT FOR THE OVNGT HRS.

LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND MAXIMIZE JUST BEFORE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THU. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES DROPPED TO AROUND A HALF-FOOT EARLIER TODAY...AND
REMAIN THERE ATTM. THOSE DEPARTURES...IF STEADY...WOULD POSE NO
CONCERN DURING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...EVEN AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...AM NOT CERTAIN WHETHER DEPARTURES WONT BE INCREASING
AGAIN WITH THE INCOMING TIDE CONSIDERING THE 15 KT SLY FLOW THAT
HAS DVLPD ON THE BAY THIS EVNG. BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE AND LOW
IMPACT /IT WOULD BE A THRESHOLD EEVNT AT ANNAPOLIS/...HAVE OPTED
TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS/KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/KCS/KLW
MARINE...HTS/KCS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 230111
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
911 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTS IN THE WRN ATLC OFF THE MID ATLC/CAROLINA
COAST. SHRA HV BEEN LMTD...RELEGATED MAINLY TO THE APLCN RDGS.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THERE SHUDNT BE MUCH MORE TO
THEIR LIFESPAN. FOR THAT MATTER...CLDS HV BEEN LESS XTNSV THAN
LAST NGT. SINCE THERE/S LESS INFLUENCE FM THE SERN CONUS
DISTURBANCE /DRY AIR AHD OF THE NXT CDFNT HAS BEEN SHUNTED SEWD
OVER CWFA/...THINK THERE WL BE LESS CLDCVR. THAT POSES MORE FOG
CONCERNS INSTEAD. GNLY GOING A MORE OPTIMISTIC RTE...AS PATCHY FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MTN/FOOTHILL VLYS...BUT AM KEEPING THE I-95
CRRDR FOG-FREE. WNDS HVNT DCPLD YET...AND THE LGT SLY FLOW/UPR
60S-LWR 70S DEWPTS NOT GREAT FOR RADL COOLING. MAY HV TO NUDGE
MIN-T GRID UPWD DUE TO THOSE DEWPTS.

WEDNESDAY STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
THE THE SAME REGION. COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...LIFT AND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MD AND
THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAM BY LATE IN THE DAY. DAMAGING WINDS IS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD
ACCORDINGLY. SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...AS BETTER DYNAMICS WILL
BE OFFSET BY LOWER NIGHTTIME INSTABILITY. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER EASTERN WV...BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT WITH A N-NW FLOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WX IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER SRN MD AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVOLVE...THUS PERHAPS
SPAWNING A SHOWER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT.

DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ROTATE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THUS...BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND IT AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONCE AGAIN...WILL BECOME A
NUISANCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MOIST AIR OVER THE
REGION. HV CONFINED THE VSBY RESTICTIONS TO CHO-MRB...AWAY FM THE
HUBS. ITS NOT BYD THE REALM OF PSBLTY THAT MVFR VSBYS CUD OCCUR AT
IAD TOO...OR THAT MRB-CHO MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU. AN
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL PUSH UP THE HEAT/HUMIDITY BEFORE TSTMS
ARRIVE/DEVELOP...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU...SWEEPING THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING HAS COME UP THE CHSPK BAY...PLACING TPLM2 AT THE
DOORSTEP OF SCA. WRF-ARW4 HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN THE REST...AND
LTST RUNS HV BEEN STRONGER STILL...BUT EVEN IT SUGGESTING THAT THE
PEAK OCCURRING ATTM...W/ WNDS BLO ANY CRIT LVL BY 02-03Z.
THEREFORE...OPTED FOR MARINE WX STMT VS A TARGETED SCA.

SLY WNDS ARND 10 KT FOR THE OVNGT HRS.

LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND MAXIMIZE JUST BEFORE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THU. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES DROPPED TO AROUND A HALF-FOOT EARLIER TODAY...AND
REMAIN THERE ATTM. THOSE DEPARTURES...IF STEADY...WOULD POSE NO
CONCERN DURING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...EVEN AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...AM NOT CERTAIN WHETHER DEPARTURES WONT BE INCREASING
AGAIN WITH THE INCOMING TIDE CONSIDERING THE 15 KT SLY FLOW THAT
HAS DVLPD ON THE BAY THIS EVNG. BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE AND LOW
IMPACT /IT WOULD BE A THRESHOLD EEVNT AT ANNAPOLIS/...HAVE OPTED
TO NOT ISSUE AN ADVY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS/KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...HTS/KCS/KLW
MARINE...HTS/KCS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 221858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. S-SE WINDS HAVE SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE POPPED UP...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WARM NOSE AROUND
600MB...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE HOLDING IN PLACE AS SHOWERS HAVE
HAD LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT WITH TOPS REACHING NOT FAR ABOVE THE
FREEZING LEVEL. THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOME
OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTINS...WITH A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE M80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH MOIST AIR IN PLACE...SOME
FOG IS POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MET/MAV
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S FOR
MOST...WITH LOW 70S IN URBAN AREAS AND NEAR MARINE ZONES.

WEDNESDAY STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
THE THE SAME REGION. COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...LIFT AND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MD AND
THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAM BY LATE IN THE DAY. DAMAGING WINDS IS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD
ACCORDINGLY. SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...AS BETTER DYNAMICS WILL
BE OFFSET BY LOWER NIGHTTIME INSTABILITY. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER EASTERN WV...BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT WITH A N-NW FLOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WX IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER SRN MD AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVOLVE...THUS PERHAPS
SPAWNING A SHOWER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT.

DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ROTATE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THUS...BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND IT AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONCE AGAIN...WILL BECOME A
NUISANCE TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER OR MAYBE A BRIEF TSTM PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
FROM THE S-SE...LESS THAN 10KT.

VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU. AN
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL PUSH UP THE HEAT/HUMIDITY BEFORE TSTMS
ARRIVE/DEVELOP...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU...SWEEPING THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TGNT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT.

LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND MAXIMIZE JUST BEFORE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THU. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICALLY...HENCE THERE WL BE NO NEED FOR AN ADVISORY DURG THE
DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING AT HIGH
TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YDA WAS ONE MONTH SINCE THE SUMMER SOLSTICE. WE`RE A LTL OVR
HALFWAY THRU WHAT IS CONSIDERED MET SUMMER. HOW DOES THIS SUMMER
SHAPE UP SO FAR TEMP-WISE? LOOKING AT THE PAST 30 YRS...

6/1-7/21...1984-2014...

STATION AVG MAX  RANK AVG MIN RANK AVG DAILY RANK

DCA       87     12TH    70   6TH     78.5    9TH
BWI       84.3   23RD    64.3 15TH    74.5    19TH
IAD       83.6   23RD    63.6 12TH    73.6    20TH

AN INTERESTING STAT - DCA...AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...
FIVE OF THE TOP SIX WARMEST HV BEEN 2010 THRU 2014. RANKINGS:

1 2010 72.1
2 2013 71.6
3 2011 71.0
4 1994 70.9
5 2012 70.2
6 2014 70.0
7 2008 68.9

EVEN IF YOU XTND TO THE ENTIRE DC RECORD - SINCE 1871...2014 RANKS
#7 FOR WARMEST AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PD 6/1-7/21.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KCS/KLW
MARINE...KCS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WOODY!/KCS
CLIMATE...WOODY!








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221858
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
258 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. S-SE WINDS HAVE SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
MOIST AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE POPPED UP...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WARM NOSE AROUND
600MB...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE HOLDING IN PLACE AS SHOWERS HAVE
HAD LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT WITH TOPS REACHING NOT FAR ABOVE THE
FREEZING LEVEL. THIS WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER SOME
OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE/CATOCTINS...WITH A FEW SPOTS RECEIVING BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE M80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH MOIST AIR IN PLACE...SOME
FOG IS POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. MET/MAV
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S FOR
MOST...WITH LOW 70S IN URBAN AREAS AND NEAR MARINE ZONES.

WEDNESDAY STARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
THE THE SAME REGION. COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...LIFT AND
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MD AND
THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAM BY LATE IN THE DAY. DAMAGING WINDS IS
LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD
ACCORDINGLY. SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...AS BETTER DYNAMICS WILL
BE OFFSET BY LOWER NIGHTTIME INSTABILITY. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID
60S OVER EASTERN WV...BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID 70S ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.

COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES CONTINUE WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT WITH A N-NW FLOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WX IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER SRN MD AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT.
LOWS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVOLVE...THUS PERHAPS
SPAWNING A SHOWER IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WITH THE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT.

DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ROTATE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THUS...BRINGING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND IT AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONCE AGAIN...WILL BECOME A
NUISANCE TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER OR MAYBE A BRIEF TSTM PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
FROM THE S-SE...LESS THAN 10KT.

VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU. AN
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL PUSH UP THE HEAT/HUMIDITY BEFORE TSTMS
ARRIVE/DEVELOP...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU...SWEEPING THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TGNT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT.

LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND MAXIMIZE JUST BEFORE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THU. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICALLY...HENCE THERE WL BE NO NEED FOR AN ADVISORY DURG THE
DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING AT HIGH
TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YDA WAS ONE MONTH SINCE THE SUMMER SOLSTICE. WE`RE A LTL OVR
HALFWAY THRU WHAT IS CONSIDERED MET SUMMER. HOW DOES THIS SUMMER
SHAPE UP SO FAR TEMP-WISE? LOOKING AT THE PAST 30 YRS...

6/1-7/21...1984-2014...

STATION AVG MAX  RANK AVG MIN RANK AVG DAILY RANK

DCA       87     12TH    70   6TH     78.5    9TH
BWI       84.3   23RD    64.3 15TH    74.5    19TH
IAD       83.6   23RD    63.6 12TH    73.6    20TH

AN INTERESTING STAT - DCA...AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...
FIVE OF THE TOP SIX WARMEST HV BEEN 2010 THRU 2014. RANKINGS:

1 2010 72.1
2 2013 71.6
3 2011 71.0
4 1994 70.9
5 2012 70.2
6 2014 70.0
7 2008 68.9

EVEN IF YOU XTND TO THE ENTIRE DC RECORD - SINCE 1871...2014 RANKS
#7 FOR WARMEST AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PD 6/1-7/21.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KCS/KLW
MARINE...KCS/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WOODY!/KCS
CLIMATE...WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KLWX 221407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TO END THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA. MOSTLY STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH A FEW BREAKS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE MOST AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. 12Z
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM NOSE AROUND 600 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG OVER AREAS WHERE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN HALF OF MD. GIVEN WEAK WIND
FIELDS...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE M80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHG TNGT OVR THE PAST FEW NGTS - LO LV MOISTURE WL CAUSE
SKIES TO BE PC/MC. LO TEMPS GNRLY IN THE U60S...LM70S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
TRENDS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/CNTRL
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE
REST OF THE CONUS. THE RESULT IN TERMS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ON WED -
AS WELL AS A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE. TRENDS IN MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SINCE THE DAY BEFORE HAVE BEEN FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO MORE
QUICKLY DIG DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY WED...SWINGING
THE SUBSIDENCE WAVE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY ON
THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WOULD THEN BE MAKING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY THU...ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY.

EVEN W/ THIS GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN...INSTABILITY WILL BE
AT ITS HIGHEST WED MRNG/AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOWERED HEIGHTS FROM THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR THE
BEST INSTABILITY PROFILES OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL BE
A BIT OF A WARM NOSE A FEW THOU FT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
OVERCOME...SO LAPSE RATES WOULD HAVE TO EITHER STEEPEN QUICKLY OR A
POTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR OTHER FORCING FEATURE WOULD HAVE TO MOVE
THRU. THAT IS JUST WHAT MED RANGE HIGHER-RES MODELS LIKE THE NAM12
ARE INDICATING. SOME PREFRONTAL WAVE-LIKE FEATURES EXTENDING FROM
NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER TENN VLY WILL BE SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION...KICKING OF BATCHES OF LINEAR AND DISCRETE CONVECTION ALL
ALONG THE WAY. OUR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE THE ENTIRE PERIOD...FROM WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU - THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON WED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPS WILL BE THEIR HIGHEST IN SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE L-M90S W/ DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 MEAN HEAT
INDICES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEG ON TOP OF THE AMBIENT TEMP. A EARLY
MRNG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU MRNG WOULD THEN MEAN A MUCH COOLER THU
FOR THE AREA...NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF THE HIGH TEMPS - IN THE L-M80S -
BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
ACTUALLY DECREASE MORE AND MORE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...W/ A REINFORCING DRIER NW FLOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A COUPLE OF DAYS OF UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK...WHILE THE FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND KEEPS FAIRLY
QUIET WX ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW PRES SYSTEM
JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO S CNTRL CANADA GEARS UP. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CARRY A LONG-STRETCHED COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE
UPPER-MID MISS VLY FRI-SAT. FAST UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE
UPPER WAVE INTO THE OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY SAT...W/ THE TAIL END
BRINGING SOME PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
FROM THERE...POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ACTIVE FEW DAYS IF LONG TERM TRENDS
HOLD UP. SEVERAL SMALLER VORTS WELL TO THE NORTH COULD COMBINE AND
SLIDE THESE WAVES DOWN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY AND PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER
OR MAYBE A BRIEF TSTM PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FROM THE
S-SE...LESS THAN 10KT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU. AN
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL PUSH UP THE HEAT/HUMIDITY BEFORE TSTMS
ARRIVE/DEVELOP...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU...SWEEPING THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU AFTN. DRY
AND COOLER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TGNT.

LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK AND MAXIMIZE JUST BEFORE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THU. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICALLY...HENCE THERE WL BE NO NEED FOR AN ADVISORY DURG THE
DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING AT HIGH
TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YDA WAS ONE MONTH SINCE THE SUMMER SOLSTICE. WE`RE A LTL OVR
HALFWAY THRU WHAT IS CONSIDERED MET SUMMER. HOW DOES THIS SUMMER
SHAPE UP SO FAR TEMP-WISE? LOOKING AT THE PAST 30 YRS...

6/1-7/21...1984-2014...

STATION AVG MAX  RANK AVG MIN RANK AVG DAILY RANK

DCA       87     12TH    70   6TH     78.5    9TH
BWI       84.3   23RD    64.3 15TH    74.5    19TH
IAD       83.6   23RD    63.6 12TH    73.6    20TH

AN INTERESTING STAT - DCA...AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...
FIVE OF THE TOP SIX WARMEST HV BEEN 2010 THRU 2014. RANKINGS:

1 2010 72.1
2 2013 71.6
3 2011 71.0
4 1994 70.9
5 2012 70.2
6 2014 70.0
7 2008 68.9

EVEN IF YOU XTND TO THE ENTIRE DC RECORD - SINCE 1871...2014 RANKS
#7 FOR WARMEST AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PD 6/1-7/21.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM/AVIATION AND COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE...KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 221407
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TO END THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS MORNING EXTENDS FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO WEST VIRGINIA. MOSTLY STRATUS
CLOUDS WITH A FEW BREAKS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHILE MOST AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. 12Z
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM NOSE AROUND 600 MB. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000
J/KG OVER AREAS WHERE LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN HALF OF MD. GIVEN WEAK WIND
FIELDS...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE M80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHG TNGT OVR THE PAST FEW NGTS - LO LV MOISTURE WL CAUSE
SKIES TO BE PC/MC. LO TEMPS GNRLY IN THE U60S...LM70S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
TRENDS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/CNTRL
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE
REST OF THE CONUS. THE RESULT IN TERMS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ON WED -
AS WELL AS A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE. TRENDS IN MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SINCE THE DAY BEFORE HAVE BEEN FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO MORE
QUICKLY DIG DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY WED...SWINGING
THE SUBSIDENCE WAVE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY ON
THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WOULD THEN BE MAKING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY THU...ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY.

EVEN W/ THIS GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN...INSTABILITY WILL BE
AT ITS HIGHEST WED MRNG/AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOWERED HEIGHTS FROM THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR THE
BEST INSTABILITY PROFILES OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL BE
A BIT OF A WARM NOSE A FEW THOU FT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
OVERCOME...SO LAPSE RATES WOULD HAVE TO EITHER STEEPEN QUICKLY OR A
POTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR OTHER FORCING FEATURE WOULD HAVE TO MOVE
THRU. THAT IS JUST WHAT MED RANGE HIGHER-RES MODELS LIKE THE NAM12
ARE INDICATING. SOME PREFRONTAL WAVE-LIKE FEATURES EXTENDING FROM
NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER TENN VLY WILL BE SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION...KICKING OF BATCHES OF LINEAR AND DISCRETE CONVECTION ALL
ALONG THE WAY. OUR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE THE ENTIRE PERIOD...FROM WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU - THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON WED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPS WILL BE THEIR HIGHEST IN SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE L-M90S W/ DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 MEAN HEAT
INDICES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEG ON TOP OF THE AMBIENT TEMP. A EARLY
MRNG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU MRNG WOULD THEN MEAN A MUCH COOLER THU
FOR THE AREA...NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF THE HIGH TEMPS - IN THE L-M80S -
BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
ACTUALLY DECREASE MORE AND MORE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...W/ A REINFORCING DRIER NW FLOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A COUPLE OF DAYS OF UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK...WHILE THE FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND KEEPS FAIRLY
QUIET WX ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW PRES SYSTEM
JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO S CNTRL CANADA GEARS UP. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CARRY A LONG-STRETCHED COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE
UPPER-MID MISS VLY FRI-SAT. FAST UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE
UPPER WAVE INTO THE OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY SAT...W/ THE TAIL END
BRINGING SOME PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
FROM THERE...POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ACTIVE FEW DAYS IF LONG TERM TRENDS
HOLD UP. SEVERAL SMALLER VORTS WELL TO THE NORTH COULD COMBINE AND
SLIDE THESE WAVES DOWN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY AND PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CIGS OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWER
OR MAYBE A BRIEF TSTM PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FROM THE
S-SE...LESS THAN 10KT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU. AN
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL PUSH UP THE HEAT/HUMIDITY BEFORE TSTMS
ARRIVE/DEVELOP...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU...SWEEPING THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU AFTN. DRY
AND COOLER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TGNT.

LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK AND MAXIMIZE JUST BEFORE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THU. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICALLY...HENCE THERE WL BE NO NEED FOR AN ADVISORY DURG THE
DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING AT HIGH
TIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YDA WAS ONE MONTH SINCE THE SUMMER SOLSTICE. WE`RE A LTL OVR
HALFWAY THRU WHAT IS CONSIDERED MET SUMMER. HOW DOES THIS SUMMER
SHAPE UP SO FAR TEMP-WISE? LOOKING AT THE PAST 30 YRS...

6/1-7/21...1984-2014...

STATION AVG MAX  RANK AVG MIN RANK AVG DAILY RANK

DCA       87     12TH    70   6TH     78.5    9TH
BWI       84.3   23RD    64.3 15TH    74.5    19TH
IAD       83.6   23RD    63.6 12TH    73.6    20TH

AN INTERESTING STAT - DCA...AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...
FIVE OF THE TOP SIX WARMEST HV BEEN 2010 THRU 2014. RANKINGS:

1 2010 72.1
2 2013 71.6
3 2011 71.0
4 1994 70.9
5 2012 70.2
6 2014 70.0
7 2008 68.9

EVEN IF YOU XTND TO THE ENTIRE DC RECORD - SINCE 1871...2014 RANKS
#7 FOR WARMEST AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PD 6/1-7/21.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM/AVIATION AND COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE...KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 220946
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
546 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMRVA COAST WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TO END THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES HAS MADE A TRIP FM ME TO CSTL NJ DURG THE PAST 24 HRS.
TO THE N OF THE HIGH THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CLDNS...BUT THAT IS NOT
TRUE ACROSS THE MID ATLC. AREA VWP`S SHOWING LO LVL WINDS LGT FM
THE SSW...BCMG ERLY AT FL 070 WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OFF THE
OCEAN INTO THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT BLV MRNG WL BE M CLDY...W/
MORE BRKS DVLPG THIS AFTN. PERHAPS A FEW RW/TRW COULD DVLP OVR THE
HIGH ELEVS THIS AFTN..BUT FOR TIME BEING AM LVG CNVCTN OUT OF THE
GRIDS. BUFKIT SHOWS WIND FIELD THRUT ATMOSPHERE IS XTRMLY LGT - IF
A STORM DOES DVLP IT WOULD LKLY RAIN OVR ONE SPOT FOR A FEW MINUTES
AND DISSIPATE.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHG TNGT OVR THE PAST FEW NGTS - LO LV MOISTURE WL CAUSE
SKIES TO BE PC/MC. LO TEMPS GNRLY IN THE U60S...LM70S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
TRENDS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/CNTRL
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE
REST OF THE CONUS. THE RESULT IN TERMS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ON WED -
AS WELL AS A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE. TRENDS IN MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SINCE THE DAY BEFORE HAVE BEEN FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO MORE
QUICKLY DIG DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY WED...SWINGING
THE SUBSIDENCE WAVE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY ON
THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WOULD THEN BE MAKING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY THU...ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY.

EVEN W/ THIS GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN...INSTABILITY WILL BE
AT ITS HIGHEST WED MRNG/AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOWERED HEIGHTS FROM THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR THE
BEST INSTABILITY PROFILES OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL BE
A BIT OF A WARM NOSE A FEW THOU FT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
OVERCOME...SO LAPSE RATES WOULD HAVE TO EITHER STEEPEN QUICKLY OR A
POTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR OTHER FORCING FEATURE WOULD HAVE TO MOVE
THRU. THAT IS JUST WHAT MED RANGE HIGHER-RES MODELS LIKE THE NAM12
ARE INDICATING. SOME PREFRONTAL WAVE-LIKE FEATURES EXTENDING FROM
NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER TENN VLY WILL BE SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION...KICKING OF BATCHES OF LINEAR AND DISCRETE CONVECTION ALL
ALONG THE WAY. OUR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE THE ENTIRE PERIOD...FROM WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU - THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON WED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPS WILL BE THEIR HIGHEST IN SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE L-M90S W/ DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 MEAN HEAT
INDICES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEG ON TOP OF THE AMBIENT TEMP. A EARLY
MRNG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU MRNG WOULD THEN MEAN A MUCH COOLER THU
FOR THE AREA...NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF THE HIGH TEMPS - IN THE L-M80S -
BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
ACTUALLY DECREASE MORE AND MORE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...W/ A REINFORCING DRIER NW FLOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A COUPLE OF DAYS OF UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK...WHILE THE FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND KEEPS FAIRLY
QUIET WX ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW PRES SYSTEM
JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO S CNTRL CANADA GEARS UP. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CARRY A LONG-STRETCHED COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE
UPPER-MID MISS VLY FRI-SAT. FAST UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE
UPPER WAVE INTO THE OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY SAT...W/ THE TAIL END
BRINGING SOME PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
FROM THERE...POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ACTIVE FEW DAYS IF LONG TERM TRENDS
HOLD UP. SEVERAL SMALLER VORTS WELL TO THE NORTH COULD COMBINE AND
SLIDE THESE WAVES DOWN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY AND PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO LVL CLDS HV DVLPED E OF THE MTNS WHICH HV DROPPED CIGS TO MVFR
LVLS. CLD LYRS MAY BE MOVG IN AND OUT THRU A FEW HRS PAST SUNRISE
THEN VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE EVE PUSH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU. AN
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL PUSH UP THE HEAT/HUMIDITY BEFORE TSTMS
ARRIVE/DEVELOP...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU...SWEEPING THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU AFTN. DRY
AND COOLER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TGNT.

LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK AND MAXIMIZE JUST BEFORE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THU. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CSTL FLD ADVSRY IN EFFECT FOR ANNAPOLIS/BALTIMORE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURRED AT 2:59 AM. A VALUE OF 2.408 FT WAS RECORDED - 8/1000TH
OF A FOOT OVER MINOR FLD STAGE. BALT HIGH TIDE IS 4:13 AM. THE DAYTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...HENCE
THERE WL BE NO NEED FOR AN ADVSRY DURG THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YDA WAS ONE MONTH SINCE THE SUMMER SOLSTICE. WE`RE A LTL OVR
HALFWAY THRU WHAT IS CONSIDERED MET SUMMER. HOW DOES THIS SUMMER
SHAPE UP SO FAR TEMP-WISE? LOOKING AT THE PAST 30 YRS...

6/1-7/21...1984-2014...

STATION AVG MAX  RANK AVG MIN RANK AVG DAILY RANK

DCA       87     12TH    70   6TH     78.5    9TH
BWI       84.3   23RD    64.3 15TH    74.5    19TH
IAD       83.6   23RD    63.6 12TH    73.6    20TH

AN INTERESTING STAT - DCA...AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...
FIVE OF THE TOP SIX WARMEST HV BEEN 2010 THRU 2014. RANKINGS:

1 2010 72.1
2 2013 71.6
3 2011 71.0
4 1994 70.9
5 2012 70.2
6 2014 70.0
7 2008 68.9

EVEN IF YOU XTND TO THE ENTIRE DC RECORD - SINCE 1871...2014 RANKS
#7 FOR WARMEST AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PD 6/1-7/21.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 220946
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
546 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMRVA COAST WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TODAY. A COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION TO END THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES HAS MADE A TRIP FM ME TO CSTL NJ DURG THE PAST 24 HRS.
TO THE N OF THE HIGH THERE ISN`T A LOT OF CLDNS...BUT THAT IS NOT
TRUE ACROSS THE MID ATLC. AREA VWP`S SHOWING LO LVL WINDS LGT FM
THE SSW...BCMG ERLY AT FL 070 WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OFF THE
OCEAN INTO THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT BLV MRNG WL BE M CLDY...W/
MORE BRKS DVLPG THIS AFTN. PERHAPS A FEW RW/TRW COULD DVLP OVR THE
HIGH ELEVS THIS AFTN..BUT FOR TIME BEING AM LVG CNVCTN OUT OF THE
GRIDS. BUFKIT SHOWS WIND FIELD THRUT ATMOSPHERE IS XTRMLY LGT - IF
A STORM DOES DVLP IT WOULD LKLY RAIN OVR ONE SPOT FOR A FEW MINUTES
AND DISSIPATE.

HIGH TEMPS IN THE M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHG TNGT OVR THE PAST FEW NGTS - LO LV MOISTURE WL CAUSE
SKIES TO BE PC/MC. LO TEMPS GNRLY IN THE U60S...LM70S IN THE CITIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
TRENDS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/CNTRL
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE
REST OF THE CONUS. THE RESULT IN TERMS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ON WED -
AS WELL AS A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER WAVE. TRENDS IN MED RANGE
GUIDANCE SINCE THE DAY BEFORE HAVE BEEN FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO MORE
QUICKLY DIG DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY WED...SWINGING
THE SUBSIDENCE WAVE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY ON
THU. THE SFC COLD FRONT WOULD THEN BE MAKING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST-HALF OF THE DAY THU...ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY.

EVEN W/ THIS GENERALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN...INSTABILITY WILL BE
AT ITS HIGHEST WED MRNG/AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOWERED HEIGHTS FROM THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR THE
BEST INSTABILITY PROFILES OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE WILL BE
A BIT OF A WARM NOSE A FEW THOU FT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
OVERCOME...SO LAPSE RATES WOULD HAVE TO EITHER STEEPEN QUICKLY OR A
POTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR OTHER FORCING FEATURE WOULD HAVE TO MOVE
THRU. THAT IS JUST WHAT MED RANGE HIGHER-RES MODELS LIKE THE NAM12
ARE INDICATING. SOME PREFRONTAL WAVE-LIKE FEATURES EXTENDING FROM
NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER TENN VLY WILL BE SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION...KICKING OF BATCHES OF LINEAR AND DISCRETE CONVECTION ALL
ALONG THE WAY. OUR PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
IN NATURE THE ENTIRE PERIOD...FROM WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU - THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON WED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...TEMPS WILL BE THEIR HIGHEST IN SEVERAL
DAYS. HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE L-M90S W/ DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 MEAN HEAT
INDICES AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEG ON TOP OF THE AMBIENT TEMP. A EARLY
MRNG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THU MRNG WOULD THEN MEAN A MUCH COOLER THU
FOR THE AREA...NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF THE HIGH TEMPS - IN THE L-M80S -
BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
ACTUALLY DECREASE MORE AND MORE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT THU AFTN INTO THU NIGHT...W/ A REINFORCING DRIER NW FLOW
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A COUPLE OF DAYS OF UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCE TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEK...WHILE THE FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH AND KEEPS FAIRLY
QUIET WX ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW PRES SYSTEM
JUST NORTH OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO S CNTRL CANADA GEARS UP. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CARRY A LONG-STRETCHED COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE
UPPER-MID MISS VLY FRI-SAT. FAST UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH THE
UPPER WAVE INTO THE OHIO VLY DURING THE DAY SAT...W/ THE TAIL END
BRINGING SOME PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
FROM THERE...POTENTIALLY ANOTHER ACTIVE FEW DAYS IF LONG TERM TRENDS
HOLD UP. SEVERAL SMALLER VORTS WELL TO THE NORTH COULD COMBINE AND
SLIDE THESE WAVES DOWN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING MORE INSTABILITY AND PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO LVL CLDS HV DVLPED E OF THE MTNS WHICH HV DROPPED CIGS TO MVFR
LVLS. CLD LYRS MAY BE MOVG IN AND OUT THRU A FEW HRS PAST SUNRISE
THEN VFR CONDS XPCTD THRU THE EVE PUSH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU. AN
OFFSHORE HIGH WILL PUSH UP THE HEAT/HUMIDITY BEFORE TSTMS
ARRIVE/DEVELOP...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WED INTO EARLY
THU...SWEEPING THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY LATE THU AFTN. DRY
AND COOLER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP THIS ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO SCA VALUES TDA/TGNT.

LIGHT S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE MID-WEEK AND MAXIMIZE JUST BEFORE THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THU. SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE WED
EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ONLY LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CSTL FLD ADVSRY IN EFFECT FOR ANNAPOLIS/BALTIMORE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURRED AT 2:59 AM. A VALUE OF 2.408 FT WAS RECORDED - 8/1000TH
OF A FOOT OVER MINOR FLD STAGE. BALT HIGH TIDE IS 4:13 AM. THE DAYTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY...HENCE
THERE WL BE NO NEED FOR AN ADVSRY DURG THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
YDA WAS ONE MONTH SINCE THE SUMMER SOLSTICE. WE`RE A LTL OVR
HALFWAY THRU WHAT IS CONSIDERED MET SUMMER. HOW DOES THIS SUMMER
SHAPE UP SO FAR TEMP-WISE? LOOKING AT THE PAST 30 YRS...

6/1-7/21...1984-2014...

STATION AVG MAX  RANK AVG MIN RANK AVG DAILY RANK

DCA       87     12TH    70   6TH     78.5    9TH
BWI       84.3   23RD    64.3 15TH    74.5    19TH
IAD       83.6   23RD    63.6 12TH    73.6    20TH

AN INTERESTING STAT - DCA...AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PAST 30 YRS...
FIVE OF THE TOP SIX WARMEST HV BEEN 2010 THRU 2014. RANKINGS:

1 2010 72.1
2 2013 71.6
3 2011 71.0
4 1994 70.9
5 2012 70.2
6 2014 70.0
7 2008 68.9

EVEN IF YOU XTND TO THE ENTIRE DC RECORD - SINCE 1871...2014 RANKS
#7 FOR WARMEST AVG LOW TEMPS FOR THE PD 6/1-7/21.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS








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