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000
FXUS61 KLWX 210929 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
529 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...AN EARLIER SPEC WX STATEMENT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
BEEN REPLACED W/ A DENSE FOG ADZY FOR MUCH OF THESE SAME AREAS...
ESPEC A TIER OF COUNTIES EITHER SIDE OF THE NRN VA BLUE RIDGE/MD
CATOCTINS. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE NRN SHEN VLY AS WELL.
RAIN FROM LAST EVE...CALM WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASINGLY DENSE - THOUGH SHALLOW - LOW
STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MTN VLYS AND PIEDMONT REGIONS.

PREV DISC...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GROUND/VLY FOG HAS SETTLED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPEC ALONG
THE NRN VA PIEDMONT IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE VLYS AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN LAST EVE. THE METRO AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH-END VSBY GROUND FOG AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK FROM THE MOIST OVERHEAD ENVRMNT TOWARD SUNRISE. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON FRI
AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-004.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050-051-501-502.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS










000
FXUS61 KLWX 210929 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
529 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...AN EARLIER SPEC WX STATEMENT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
BEEN REPLACED W/ A DENSE FOG ADZY FOR MUCH OF THESE SAME AREAS...
ESPEC A TIER OF COUNTIES EITHER SIDE OF THE NRN VA BLUE RIDGE/MD
CATOCTINS. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE NRN SHEN VLY AS WELL.
RAIN FROM LAST EVE...CALM WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASINGLY DENSE - THOUGH SHALLOW - LOW
STRATUS LAYER OVER THE MTN VLYS AND PIEDMONT REGIONS.

PREV DISC...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR
NORTH WILL SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A
LARGER UPPER TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL
REGIME HAS A CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED
VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN
INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GROUND/VLY FOG HAS SETTLED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPEC ALONG
THE NRN VA PIEDMONT IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE VLYS AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN LAST EVE. THE METRO AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH-END VSBY GROUND FOG AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK FROM THE MOIST OVERHEAD ENVRMNT TOWARD SUNRISE. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON FRI
AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003-004.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050-051-501-502.
WV...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 210802
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR NORTH WILL
SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL REGIME HAS A
CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER.
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE
ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM
NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY
WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE
MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GROUND/VLY FOG HAS SETTLED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPEC ALONG
THE NRN VA PIEDMONT IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE VLYS AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN LAST EVE. THE METRO AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH-END VSBY GROUND FOG AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK FROM THE MOIST OVERHEAD ENVRMNT TOWARD SUNRISE. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON FRI
AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 210802
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AS RIPPLES
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LAST IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH IT SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL DOWN DOWN THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PINWHEEL A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR NORTH WILL
SLINGSHOT ANOTHER WAVE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND BEING BECOMING PART OF A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH. OUR MOIST AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS MODIFIED SUB-TROPICAL REGIME HAS A
CORRIDOR OF DRY AIR ATOP A DENSE AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY/SFC LAYER.
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY WAVES OF EMBEDDED VORT MAXES...WHICH ARE
ESSENTIALLY AREAS OF LIFT...BUT IN AN INTERMITTENT AND RANDOM
NATURE. LATER TODAY/THIS EVE...A MORE COMPACT AREA OF UPPER ENERGY
WILL BE SHOVED QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE
MID-ATLC REGION.

LIKE WED HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW WILL FORCE THIS WAVE DOWN TOWARD
THE AREA BUT KIND OF STABLE COASTAL BLOCK WILL DISSIPATE THE ENERGY
AS IT APPROACHES THE ATLC COASTLINE. BUT BEFORE THEN...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION. ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS WILL
BE OUR HIGH TEMPS...AGAIN EXPECTED TO REPEAT IN THE M-U80S. THESE
VALUES COMBINED W/ SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U60S/L70S WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BREAK THE WEAK CAP AND FORCE FOR THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS. A
HANDFUL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DOT THE MAP OVER THE COMING
HRS...BUT NOT UNTIL MID-LATE AFTN IS MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITIES WILL DEPEND ON
EARLY OUTFLOWS AND STORM MOMENTUM FACTORS BUT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH /20-30KT BOUNDARY LAYER/ TO SUSTAIN A
LINEAR FEATURE.

AS W/ THE CONVECTION ON WED AFTN/EVE...THE ACTIVITY LEVEL WILL
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFT SUNSET AND W/IN A COUPLE HRS AFTERWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE U60S/L70S AGAIN SINCE
DEWPOINTS WON`T BUDGE - SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ON FRI AFTN.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MOST SHORT/MED RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE TAIL END OF SOME LOCAL
WRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FRI AFTN AND INTO LATE EVE
HRS HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. POPS ARE HIGHER THAN THE GARDEN-VARIETY ISOLATED AFTN REGIME.
THIS COULD MEAN THAT A MORE STRATIFORM/DISSIPATED REGION OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WILL DROP A REGIONAL-SCALE BATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
OVER THE AREA...ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA AS MODELS
SUGGEST.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI COULD ALSO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LIMIT IT TO AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE M80S. MODEL ADJUSTED VALUES
ARE GIVING L80S FOR HIGHS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE...A LIGHT NLY WIND THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE ELY OVER
TIME AND CERTAINLY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HRS - WHICH IS A MORE STABLE
FLOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 PTTN WL BE EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE XTNDD PD...W/ RDGG IN THE
CENTER OF THE CONUS AND TROFFING ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THAT WL
PERMIT SFC HIPRES OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES AND DOWNEAST MAINE TO BLD
DOWN THE COAST. THEREFORE...AM BCMG INCRSGLY CONFIDENT THAT THE WET
PTTN OF THIS WK WL BREAK.

SAT WL BE THE TRANSITION DAY. WL STILL HV ELY SFC LOW AND MODEST
INSTBY. MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM WL STILL BE OVHD...PROVING A ZONE
OF SHEAR. WITH A MARITIME AMS IN THE LLVL AND LIFT W/IN THE
COLUMN...NEED TO PAINT A GLOOMY PICTURE. WL BE HOLDING POPS AT
CHC...AND EMPHASIZING POINTS E OF THE BLURDG /UPSLP FLOW/. AM NOT
GOING AS LOW ON MAXT AS PSBL. SINCE AM NOT GOING FOR A WASHOUT...WL
BE HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE THAT THERE WL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS
TO RISE FM DEWPTS. THOSE DEWPTS SHUD BE UPR 60S TO NEAR 70F...SO
ITLL BE A MUGGY DAY EVEN W/O SUNSHINE.

WL BE PUSHING PCPN BACK INTO THE MTNS SAT NGT-SUN AS RDGG BLDS.
STILL HV PROLONGED ELY FLOW...SO SUN WL BE THE DAY WHEN AIR TEMPS WL
BE STRUGGLING TO RISE ABV WATER TEMPS. THERE MAY BE ENUF AIR MVMT SO
THAT FOG WONT BE AN ISSUE SAT NGT. IF IT TURNS OUT THAT FLOW DCPLS
INSTEAD...IT WL BE A WHOLE DIFFERENT STORY.

SFC HIPRES WL RUN THE SHOW FOR THE REST OF THE XTNDD. AM MUCH MORE
GENEROUS W/ SUNSHINE. MAXT UPR 70S-LWR 80S/MIN-T 50S TO LWR 60S
STILL BELOW CLIMO...BUT REACHING TIME OF YR WHEN NRMLS STARTING TO
DROP.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GROUND/VLY FOG HAS SETTLED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...ESPEC ALONG
THE NRN VA PIEDMONT IN TYPICAL FOG PRONE VLYS AND AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN LAST EVE. THE METRO AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HIGH-END VSBY GROUND FOG AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF MVFR/IFR STRATUS
DECK FROM THE MOIST OVERHEAD ENVRMNT TOWARD SUNRISE. SKIES AFTER
SUNRISE WILL WAVER IN/OUT OF PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SINCE WE
STILL HAVE A MOIST ATMOS. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...POTENTIALLY CARRYING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY FRI. MORE SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED ON FRI
AFTN/EVE AS WELL.

SAT-SUN...LOCLDS AND VSBYS MAY BE AN ISSUE AS A MARINE AMS SPREADS
INLAND. THINK FLG RESTRICTIONS WL BE MORE PRONOUNCED AND PROLONGED
SAT.

MON...VFR.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EVE
OVER THE WATERS...CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT W/ ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ON
FRI AFTN/EVE.

ELY FLOW WL DOMINATE THIS WKND AS HIPRES BLDS DOWN THE COAST. THERE
ARE SOME HINTS THAT WNDS MAY TOUCH SCA CRIT AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN
THE MID BAY. THAT ALL DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH AND
RELATIVE LOPRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT A TIGHT
P-GRAD ATTM...AND HV CAPPED WNDS BLO SCA CRIT.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS ABOUT 3/4 TO 1 FT ABV ASTRO NORMS. THAT PLACED ANNAPOLIS
AT RISK FOR THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLE. GAUGE READINGS CAME BACK
ARND MIDNGT...AND WE/RE TOPPING OFF JUST ABOVE MINOR CRITERIA.
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY ADVYS...BUT A FEW
CAUTION STAGES SHOULD BE REACHED. ONLY OTHER CONCERN MAY BE
ALEXANDRIA/SWDC...WHERE A 1.1 FT DEPARTURE WOULD TIP THE SCALE.
THINK WE MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK THAT ONE OUT...BUT ADMITTEDLY ITS
GONNA BE CLOSE.

WE WILL HV SLY FLOW TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TNGT. FORTUNATELY THE 2ND
TIDE CYCLE OF THE DAY IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE WL HV JUST ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE
WATER TO OOZE OUT OF THE ESTUARY BY THEN. SO...TOMORROW MORNINGS
TIDE WL BE HIGH...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING REACHING CRITERIA ATTM.
HOWEVER...WE ARE WORKING ON A MARGIN OF INCHES...WHICH IS PUSHING
CURRENT SKILL LEVEL...SO ITS ADVISABLE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

FLOW WL BE NLY FRI BEFORE ONSHORE /ELY/ FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WKND.
THUS...IF WATER DOESNT EVACUATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE COULD
BE MORE NUISANCE ISSUES THIS WKND.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...GMS/HTS
MARINE...GMS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 210127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN PERSIST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FROM
CHARLOTTESVILLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

AN UPR RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH THE
AXIS STALLING OVER THE MS RIVER THURSDAY. A NWLY JET FROM THIS
AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...PUTTING THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC IN THE PREFERRED RIGHT EXIT REGION. THIS WILL
AID LIFT AND BULK SHEAR TOMORROW. REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM THE
ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD FACTOR INTO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATE/FAVOR. FURTHER MORE...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MLCAPE LOOKS
LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES...BUT THAT IS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ACTIVITY. EXPECT
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEAR 2 INCHES THURSDAY PRODUCING A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S AGAIN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S FOR HEAT INDEX NEAR 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A 250MB JET SITS NEAR THE REGION AND
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO CLEARING FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...PROVIDING ONE FINAL PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US
RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE MARINE LAYER
THAT WILL FILL IN WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIR...LEADING
TO A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN LOCALLY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY AND MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FEATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CHARLOTTESVILLE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MRB AND CHO.
MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT IAD. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
BWI-MTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
CAUSE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
GUSTED TO AROUND 20 KT ON MAIN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A
COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. SLY FLOW HAS
INCREASED THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WATER LEVELS AT LEAST
THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT AT ANNAPOLIS AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT THAT SENSITIVE SITE. THE GAUGE STOPPED REPORTING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT IS NOT KNOWN WHEN DATA WILL BE RESTORED. HIGH
TIDE IS AT 3:21AM AT THE NAVAL ACADEMY. WATER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED ELSEWHERE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
FOR POTENTIALLY MEETING THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT THE SOUTHWEST
WATERFRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 210127
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
927 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN PERSIST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FROM
CHARLOTTESVILLE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

AN UPR RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH THE
AXIS STALLING OVER THE MS RIVER THURSDAY. A NWLY JET FROM THIS
AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...PUTTING THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC IN THE PREFERRED RIGHT EXIT REGION. THIS WILL
AID LIFT AND BULK SHEAR TOMORROW. REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM THE
ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD FACTOR INTO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATE/FAVOR. FURTHER MORE...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS FROM
THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. MLCAPE LOOKS
LIMITED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES...BUT THAT IS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ACTIVITY. EXPECT
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DAMAGING WIND. PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEAR 2 INCHES THURSDAY PRODUCING A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S AGAIN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S FOR HEAT INDEX NEAR 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A 250MB JET SITS NEAR THE REGION AND
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO CLEARING FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...PROVIDING ONE FINAL PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US
RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE MARINE LAYER
THAT WILL FILL IN WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIR...LEADING
TO A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN LOCALLY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY AND MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FEATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CHARLOTTESVILLE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MRB AND CHO.
MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT IAD. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
BWI-MTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
CAUSE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
GUSTED TO AROUND 20 KT ON MAIN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A
COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. SLY FLOW HAS
INCREASED THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WATER LEVELS AT LEAST
THREE QUARTERS OF A FOOT AT ANNAPOLIS AND CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT THAT SENSITIVE SITE. THE GAUGE STOPPED REPORTING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT IS NOT KNOWN WHEN DATA WILL BE RESTORED. HIGH
TIDE IS AT 3:21AM AT THE NAVAL ACADEMY. WATER LEVELS WILL BE
ELEVATED ELSEWHERE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
FOR POTENTIALLY MEETING THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT THE SOUTHWEST
WATERFRONT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 201856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE MID WEST IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A JET STREAK IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND
NORTHERN VA. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS 500-1000 J/KG WEST OF I-95 AND
25-30KTS OF SHEAR. PWATS HAVE RISEN TO 1.6-1.8 INCHES ACROSS THIS
REGION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DMG WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. BOWING SEGMENTS AND RIJ
SIGNITURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR. AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT
CONFIRMED GROUND TRUTH REPORTS FOR DMG WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
ALSO BEEN OBSERVED. HRRR INCREASES COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE I-95 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL KEEP MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID WEST BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT.
A SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION THURS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME AND MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE SFC TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR SEEMS WEAK. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE. PWATS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEAR 1.9 INCHES THURSDAY PRODUCING HUMID
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A 250MB JET SITS NEAR THE REGION AND
DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCES MAY LEAD TO CLEARING FRIDAY AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FCST MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...PROVIDING ONE FINAL PERIOD OF
ENHANCED RAINFALL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US FOR
WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US
RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS WILL BRING ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORKWEEK. THE MARINE LAYER
THAT WILL FILL IN WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIR...LEADING
TO A LOW CLOUD DECK THAT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO MONDAY EVENING...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MIGRATE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN LOCALLY. THIS WILL
SIGNAL AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY AND MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FEATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRA AND TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF TSRA MOVES
EASTWARD. GUSTY WINDS AND IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN TSRA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE IN THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT MRB AND CHO.
MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT IAD. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
BWI-MTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY AND MAY
CAUSE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO
THE AREA.
&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS
SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A
COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FLOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX









000
FXUS61 KLWX 201330
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND APPALACHIAN MTNS AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
THIS MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FURTHER EAST...S-SE WINDS HAVE BANKED CLOUDS AGAINST THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS FOR
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY
CREEP NORTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z IAD RAOB
HAS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND AFTER MODIFYING IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE MORE IF AN AREA RECEIVES MORE
HEATING. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OR REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 BY THE AFTERNOON AND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...PWATS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES. SHEAR IS
WEAK...AROUND 25KTS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE
TODAY. HRRR HAS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING AND REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
MORE ISO-SCT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF I-66 AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH. MAIN THREAT
IN ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT CHO THIS MORNING. SCT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IAD-DCA AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AGAINST THE MTNS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 201330
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND APPALACHIAN MTNS AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY FRONT
THIS MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. FURTHER EAST...S-SE WINDS HAVE BANKED CLOUDS AGAINST THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS FOR
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MTNS THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS MAY
CREEP NORTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z IAD RAOB
HAS ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND AFTER MODIFYING IT FOR THE
AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000
J/KG. INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE MORE IF AN AREA RECEIVES MORE
HEATING. DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OR REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 BY THE AFTERNOON AND AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...PWATS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES. SHEAR IS
WEAK...AROUND 25KTS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE
TODAY. HRRR HAS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING AND REACHING THE BLUE RIDGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS
MORE ISO-SCT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
NORTH OF I-66 AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO THE NORTH. MAIN THREAT
IN ACTIVITY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT CHO THIS MORNING. SCT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT IAD-DCA AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AGAINST THE MTNS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HAS/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200735
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
335 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH AND WEST AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO
CENTRAL VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. A DECAYING MCS IS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DECAYING MCS MAY CLIP THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MARYLAND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...BUT MOST OF
THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK DEWPOINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE WILL
BE LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DCAPE...SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED
AT BEST. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR AND WEST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.

COVERAGE IN CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH...A FEW SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 60 IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER
70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL MARYLAND THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE BEING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE
LOWER 70S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
H5 PTTN MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED/ACTIVE THAN NORMAL FOR LT AUG...BUT THEN
AGAIN THIS HASNT BEEN A TYPICAL SUMMER. A SUBTROPICAL RDG WL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE MS VLY THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THAT LEAVES CWFA IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND TEMPS COOLER THAN CLIMO. WUD LOVE TO BE AS
DEFINITIVE W/ POPS. HWVR...SUBSIDENCE WL BE CONFINED TO OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE AMS LKLY WONT BE OUTRIGHT CAPPED...THERE ARENT
SPECIFIC DISCERNABLE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER...BUT THERE WL BE THE
JETSTREAM ABV AREA AT HIER LVLS. THAT LEAVES SENSIBLE WX SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID-UPA DYNAMICS SUCH AS S/WV IMPULSES EMBEDDED W/IN MEAN LYR
FLOW. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WL BE SUCH A DISTURBANCE FRI NGT
INTO SAT. INSTBY MEAGER...AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LMTD AS SFC FLOW
BECOMES ELY.

BYD THAT...EVEN BROAD DETAILS BECOME PROBLEMATIC. BY ELY NXT WK...
RDGG SHUD RETROGRADE...PROVIDING A BETTER BET AT SOME DRY CONDS IN
THE CSTL PLAIN. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SHRA IN THE MTNS...BUT THE
CHCS FAR LESS.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PROBABLE W/IN SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WKND. HWVR...
AREAL CVRG A WILD CARD. FRI NGT-SAT LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST PART OF
THE OUTLOOK ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT SCA CRITERIA
WINDS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATTM NO ADVYS XPCTD THRU THIS WKND. HWVR UNSTTLD CONDS WL PREVAIL...
AND CANNOT PRECLUDE A FEW MARINE WRNGS INVOF TSRA.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. THE FLOW MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 200132
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1009MB SFC LOW IS OFFSHORE FROM THE VA/NC BORDER AND
DRIFTING EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE/SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MID-ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES WITH AN MCS PUSHING EAST OVER LAKE ERIE (CURRENTLY
NEAR CLEVELAND).

WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MCS
(CURRENTLY OVER COLUMBUS)...FOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS LIKE CUMBERLAND
MD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS OCCLUDED AND EASTWARD PROGRESS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE 22Z HRRR SUGGEST A SUPPLEMENTAL
VORT LOBE SHIFTS ACTIVITY EAST INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOOK THIS APPROACH IN THE GRIDS WITH CHANCE
POPS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST AFTER 6 AM.

SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF VORT
MAX/TROUGH PASSAGE EAST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO PRIME DIURNAL HEATING...SO MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THAN
RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
STORMS EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST
OF I-95. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S DEPENDING ON MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT CHO AND MRB WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA AND VCTS
ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT
IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY AND SHRA AND
TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT BUT
EXPECTATION IS THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS SINCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX








000
FXUS61 KLWX 200132
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1009MB SFC LOW IS OFFSHORE FROM THE VA/NC BORDER AND
DRIFTING EAST. A LIGHT ONSHORE/SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MID-ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES WITH AN MCS PUSHING EAST OVER LAKE ERIE (CURRENTLY
NEAR CLEVELAND).

WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MCS
(CURRENTLY OVER COLUMBUS)...FOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS LIKE CUMBERLAND
MD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS OCCLUDED AND EASTWARD PROGRESS
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE 22Z HRRR SUGGEST A SUPPLEMENTAL
VORT LOBE SHIFTS ACTIVITY EAST INTO NWRN PARTS OF THE CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOOK THIS APPROACH IN THE GRIDS WITH CHANCE
POPS ENTERING THE NORTHWEST AFTER 6 AM.

SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF VORT
MAX/TROUGH PASSAGE EAST FROM THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO PRIME DIURNAL HEATING...SO MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THAN
RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT
STORMS EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST
OF I-95. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S DEPENDING ON MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CLEARING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.
IFR CIGS/VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT CHO AND MRB WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA AND VCTS
ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND THEREFORE NOT
IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY AND SHRA AND
TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR
FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT BUT
EXPECTATION IS THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS SINCE THE ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/HAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BAJ/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BAJ/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX







000
FXUS61 KLWX 191835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE VA TIDE WATER/OBX COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL VA. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
LOCATED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED BACK
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORFOLK COAST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MD AS DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST
ADVECTS SOUTH. CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
EXISTS AND SHOWERS HAVE FORMED NEAR THE HIGHER PWATS AND CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE LOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY TONIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWER AND ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING.

EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS IL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED AND THEREFORE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS LOW. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFORE MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF MVFR CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT CHO-DCA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WED MORNING AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AT CHO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA
AND VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND
THEREFORE NOT IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY
AND SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS LED TO EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORFOLK AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KLWX 191835
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OFF THE VA TIDE WATER/OBX COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS AND STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL VA. LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
LOCATED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED BACK
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY HAS LED TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NORFOLK COAST SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. A FEW BREAKS OF SUN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MD AS DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST
ADVECTS SOUTH. CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
EXISTS AND SHOWERS HAVE FORMED NEAR THE HIGHER PWATS AND CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE LOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY TONIGHT. FURTHER
WEST...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWER AND ISO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANY ACTIVITY WILL WANE THIS EVENING.

EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS IL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED AND THEREFORE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS LOW. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 1.8 INCHES AND
THEREFORE SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW A UPPER LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES. SFC FLOW IS LIGHT AND WESTERLY WHICH WILL
KEEP DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BASED ON CLOUD COVER WHICH IS HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT THE MORE
BREAKS THE GREATER THE INSTABILITY. MARGINAL SHEAR OF 25 KTS IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...SVR STORM POTENTIAL IS LOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RIDING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CROSS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MANY LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN MARYLAND...COULD SEE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY. THE COLLOCATION OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS A STALLED BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE
WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
OVERALL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS MARYLAND WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THE AFORE MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF OF CAPE
HATTERAS. WITH MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FRIDAY
EVENING THAN THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL WORK WITH THE LOW PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TO BRING
ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS MARINE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...CLOUDY HUMID AND
COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS...BUT ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. EXPECT MORE BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THOUGH LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THERE AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY
SIGNAL THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SEASONABLE. OVERALL THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND OF THE SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AS
THE COOL MARINE AIRMASS COVERS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF MVFR CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT CHO-DCA THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WED MORNING AND MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AT CHO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND SHRA
AND VCTS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THREAT OF TS IS LOW AND
THEREFORE NOT IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THURSDAY
AND SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MARINE AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS LED TO EASTERLY WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORFOLK AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 191403
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE VA
TIDE WATER COAST THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS LOCATED
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE PANHANDLE OF WV TO CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING. NE-E WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NE MD. CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AS
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS IN PLACE. DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE LOCATED ON THE WETTER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD. AS TEMPS RISE NEAR 80...MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/ALLEGHENY FRONT.
LITTLE FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD AND STRONG STORMS.
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SINCE 12Z IAD RAOB HAS A
ZERO SPEED STORM MOTION. SOME PLACES MAY SEE ISOLATED AMTS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT IAD-DCA-BWI-CHO THIS MORNING AND CIGS
SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CONFINED TO KCHO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH THIS MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT TODAY AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/HAS
MARINE...BJL/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 191403
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE VA
TIDE WATER COAST THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY FRONT STAYS LOCATED
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE PANHANDLE OF WV TO CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING. NE-E WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NE MD. CLOUDS INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AS
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS IN PLACE. DEWPTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE LOCATED ON THE WETTER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SFC LOW. ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW TRACKS EASTWARD. AS TEMPS RISE NEAR 80...MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/ALLEGHENY FRONT.
LITTLE FORCING ALOFT WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD AND STRONG STORMS.
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL MOVE SLOWLY SINCE 12Z IAD RAOB HAS A
ZERO SPEED STORM MOTION. SOME PLACES MAY SEE ISOLATED AMTS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT IAD-DCA-BWI-CHO THIS MORNING AND CIGS
SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CONFINED TO KCHO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AND GUSTS OF 15-20KTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH THIS MORNING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT TODAY AS
THE SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/HAS
MARINE...BJL/HAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MARYLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THERE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT IT IS HARD TO SEE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREAS...LIKELY KEEPING THE DAY DRY
WITH A SCT/BKN CU DECK DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS A BIT
DEEPER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY SO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS...CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHO.
LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CONFINED TO KCHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/JEL
AVIATION...BJL/JEL
MARINE...BJL/JEL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...BUT A BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN MARYLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THERE IS A DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT IT IS HARD TO SEE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREAS...LIKELY KEEPING THE DAY DRY
WITH A SCT/BKN CU DECK DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS A BIT
DEEPER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY SO A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS...CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM.

ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS MOST OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA WHERE THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 70 IN
DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE OR
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG IT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS. THE CONVECTION MAY TRACK FURTHER EAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN OUT WARM AND HUMID ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING THROUGH OUR
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

H5 PATTERN IS ENERGETIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MID ATLANTIC IS
CAUGHT BETWEEN A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW EAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LARGE ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE WINS OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHT
RISES FOR OUR AREA...BUT WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE SFC REFLECTION IS AN INVERTED
ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE EMANATING FROM THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KCHO.
LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD HOLD AT MVFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CONFINED TO KCHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS
KCHO AND KMRB WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
MARINE AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. AN
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WATERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY AND A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND. NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
WEAK. TIDAL ANOMALIES AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER OF THE TWO HIGH TIDES THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WATER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS SINCE THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/JEL
AVIATION...BJL/JEL
MARINE...BJL/JEL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190235
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF IT HAS LED TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED AOA 1.6 INCHES AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...THEREFORE THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME PONDING OF
WATER.

AM UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO EXPAND
TO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
66...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. MAY KEEP THE
BALTIMORE AREA DRY FOR THE NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF IAD/DCA THIS EVENING.
AM UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THEY CAN REACH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEFT
SHRA OUT OF TAF ATTM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CHO SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR FURTHER NORTH PER LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SREFS...BUT LATE NIGHT/EARY TUESDAY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT 15 KT
WINDS UP THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL
COUNTY. ANOMALY UP NEAR 0.7 AT APAM2.

PREV...

ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEND
ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR FLOOD...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
OCCUR BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY...THIS IS LIKELY THE
ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE VULNERABLE FOR TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP









000
FXUS61 KLWX 190235
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF IT HAS LED TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED AOA 1.6 INCHES AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...THEREFORE THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME PONDING OF
WATER.

AM UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO EXPAND
TO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
66...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. MAY KEEP THE
BALTIMORE AREA DRY FOR THE NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF IAD/DCA THIS EVENING.
AM UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THEY CAN REACH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEFT
SHRA OUT OF TAF ATTM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CHO SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR FURTHER NORTH PER LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SREFS...BUT LATE NIGHT/EARY TUESDAY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT 15 KT
WINDS UP THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL
COUNTY. ANOMALY UP NEAR 0.7 AT APAM2.

PREV...

ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEND
ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR FLOOD...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
OCCUR BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY...THIS IS LIKELY THE
ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE VULNERABLE FOR TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190137
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF IT HAS LED TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED AOA 1.6 INCHES AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...THEREFORE THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME PONDING OF
WATER.

AM UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO EXPAND
TO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
66...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. MAY KEEP THE
BALTIMORE AREA DRY FOR THE NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF IAD/DCA THIS EVENING.
AM UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THEY CAN REACH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEFT
SHRA OUT OF TAF ATTM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CHO SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR FURTHER NORTH PER LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SREFS...BUT LATE NIGHT/EARY TUESDAY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT 15 KT
WINDS UP THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEND
ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR FLOOD...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
OCCUR BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY...THIS IS LIKELY THE
ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE VULNERABLE FOR TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP








000
FXUS61 KLWX 190137
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
CONVERGENCE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF IT HAS LED TO SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN
MARYLAND. PW VALUES HAVE INCREASED AOA 1.6 INCHES AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...THEREFORE THEY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME PONDING OF
WATER.

AM UNCERTAIN EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO EXPAND
TO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS MAY WIND UP BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
66...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL RESIDE. MAY KEEP THE
BALTIMORE AREA DRY FOR THE NIGHT GIVEN SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF IAD/DCA THIS EVENING.
AM UNCERTAIN HOW FAR NORTH THEY CAN REACH HOWEVER...SO HAVE LEFT
SHRA OUT OF TAF ATTM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL LOW CIG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. CHO SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON IFR FURTHER NORTH PER LATEST GFS GUIDANCE WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY SREFS...BUT LATE NIGHT/EARY TUESDAY MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE.

ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOW CIGS
AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT MAY SUPPORT 15 KT
WINDS UP THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH MORE TO SEND
ANNAPOLIS INTO MINOR FLOOD...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
OCCUR BY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY...THIS IS LIKELY THE
ONLY AREA THAT WILL BE VULNERABLE FOR TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP









000
FXUS61 KLWX 181810
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
210 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH EASTERLY WINDS ON
THE COOL/STABLE SIDE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WARM/MORE UNSTABLE
SIDE.

SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BRING IT SOUTH OF THE
LWX CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOST OF THE
FORCING TO BE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON RADAR AS
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION AND NRN NC.
PWATS HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO 1.8 INCHES AND RISING IN THIS REGION.
FURTHER NORTH...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIER CLOSER TO THE FORCING AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. QPF WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF
INCH NEAR CHO TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NEAR BWI/DMH.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
EXIT THE TIDE WATER REGION TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY PLACES THAT SEE MORE RAIN THAN OTHERS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. SHRA ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH...SHRA
WILL BE ISO-SCT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TERMINALS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS
TUESDAY AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE FROM
THE OCEAN. ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR LOW CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN VA TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS BUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE NEAR 15-20 KTS
ON THE WATERS. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THEREFORE SCA IS
NOT IN EFFECT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TIDAL ANOMALIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ANNAPOLIS
AS ANOMALIES RISE TO OVER A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 181810
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
210 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH EASTERLY WINDS ON
THE COOL/STABLE SIDE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WARM/MORE UNSTABLE
SIDE.

SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BRING IT SOUTH OF THE
LWX CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOST OF THE
FORCING TO BE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON RADAR AS
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION AND NRN NC.
PWATS HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO 1.8 INCHES AND RISING IN THIS REGION.
FURTHER NORTH...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIER CLOSER TO THE FORCING AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. QPF WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF
INCH NEAR CHO TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NEAR BWI/DMH.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND
EXIT THE TIDE WATER REGION TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY PLACES THAT SEE MORE RAIN THAN OTHERS.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE START
OF THE WORK WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY NEAR THE HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN VA. AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO DEFINE BUT
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE JERSEY WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO FLOW UP AGAINST THE BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY
FORCING MECHANISM TUESDAY AND THEREFORE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY WILL BE JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE TUESDAY EVENING
LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WED MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE HIGHLANDS WED
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LEADING TO NE-E WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY WED AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DOMINANT AXIS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE
BRINGING THE MID-ATLANTIC ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL FINALLY DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH PREFRONTAL
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION THAT THURSDAY EVENING WILL SEE THE MOST
INSTABILITY OF ANY DAY THIS WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF CAPE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J. WITH JUST OVER 30 KTS OF SHEAR AND DRY LOW LEVELS/STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO INITIATE. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PEAK IN DIURNAL HEATING...THOUGH THE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
IN THE AREA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY. THE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK. RAINFALL COULD BE ENHANCED ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO UPSLOPING OF EASTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR AND
BRINGING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK.

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY THANKS TO PREFRONTAL
WARM AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 70S AS A MARINE AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF SKY COVER WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL
TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. SHRA ARE
EXPECTED AT CHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH...SHRA
WILL BE ISO-SCT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT LEADING TO IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE TERMINALS. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE WEST OF THE TERMINALS
TUESDAY AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MOISTURE FROM
THE OCEAN. ISO-SCT SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AT MRB/CHO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR LOW CIGS AND VSBYS. E-SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT AVIATION THURSDAY
EVENING. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS A MARINE AIRMASS FILLS IN TO
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN VA TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS BUT A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE NEAR 15-20 KTS
ON THE WATERS. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THEREFORE SCA IS
NOT IN EFFECT.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF ANY MARINE HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TIDAL ANOMALIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT ANNAPOLIS
AS ANOMALIES RISE TO OVER A HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MID ATLANTIC AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ALOFT.

THE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL VA TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SOUTH OF I-66 INCLUDING THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD...WILL AIDE IN PWATS
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY TONIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS
REGION BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED BY THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
SW TO NE. AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO INCREASE. SREF MEAN HAS MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AT CHO. LITTLE
SHEAR...DEW PTS IN THE MID 60S AND LITTLE HEATING DUE TO THE
CLOUDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN ISO-SCT COVERAGE OF TSTMS. MOST OF THE
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE HENCE MOST HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FORCING SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE. WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CAUSING PWATS TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...THERE
IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE LOCALIZED SINCE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED FROM CLOUD COVER AND 1 HOUR FFG GUIDANCE IS NEAR 3
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED SINCE FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS AND IT WILL FEEL HUMID.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER ONE SHORTWAVE SLIPS SOUTH OF THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA LATE
TUE...ANOTHER WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED BY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE GFS/EURO AS SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCKED IN BETWEEN
TWO UPPER RIDGES - ONE TO THE NE AND ONE TO THE SW. THE SWRN UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT RETROGRADES BACK FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AREAS TO THE GULF COAST REGION AND UP INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. THE
BUILDING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE ZONE BACK TO THE WEST WILL SQUEEZE
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH DOWN TOWARD THE MID-ATLC. THE OPPOSING
HIGH BACK ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL ACT AS A
BLOCKING FORCE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AS WELL.

NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS INCOMING LOW PRES
DISTURBANCE...MAINLY BECAUSE IT WOULD HAVE TO BE FROM ON ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE MID-ATLC ZONE BACK TOWARD THE APLCNS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS NOT A VERY EFFICIENT METHOD OF INFUSING
MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM UNTIL THE FEATURE WOULD REACH THE
NEAR-COASTAL REGION. A GULF FETCH WOULD BE BETTER BUT THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY PREVENT SUCH A FEED. INSTEAD...THE INCOMING
PRECIP FROM WED INTO FRI IS EXPECTED TO BE A HYBRID SUB-TROPICAL AND
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS W/ LOW-TOPPED AND BRIEF CONVECTION /WEAK/ AND
ONLY INTERMITTENT PERIODS AND WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF TIME WHERE A STEADY AND STABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRATIFORM-OUT WRN INCOMING CONVECTION AND BASICALLY WEDGE-IN PART
OF THE AREA W/ DENSE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT SHOWERS.

AS THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE EURO SUGGESTS...THERE MAY BE A
REINVIGORATING OF THE TROUGH IS IT ARRIVES OVER THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE EURO AND GFS DIFFER OF THEIR DEPICTIONS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT BEFORE THEN - THE EURO DEVELOPS SOME MORE
LOCALLY INTENSE BATCHES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
THU INTO FRI. STILL TOO EARLY TO PRECISELY NAIL-DOWN MUCH MORE THAN
LOW-END POPS FOR THIS LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AND IS EXPECTED FOR A HANDFUL
OF AREAS BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ARRIVES...BUT IN TERMS OF THIS
MULTI-DAY PERIOD...MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY - OUTSIDE OF
HIGH HUMIDITIES IN THE AIR AND A FEW SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPS EACH DAY WILL BE MODERATED BY THE RELATIVELY HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS BUT STILL REACH AT LEAST THE L80S EACH AFTN W/ PERIODS OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND INTERMITTENT BREAKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE RELATIVELY WARM SINCE DEWPOINTS WON`T HARDLY BUDGE OUT OF
THE U60S DURING THESE FEW DAYS...SO A RELATIVELY LOW DIURNAL SPREAD
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS KCHO LATER THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THIS TIME. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO WHERE IT WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TUESDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WED
INTO FRI. ONLY A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OF A VERY SCATTERED
NATURE FROM WED THRU FRI...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. CIG HEIGHTS
WILL PERIODICALLY DROP INTO MVFR AND LOWER CATEGORIES
PERIODICALLY...AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS MAY LIMIT AFTN/EVE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA AND
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT
IT MAY BE CLOSE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...W/
A LARGELY STABLE PERIOD FOR INCOMING AND DEVELOPING TSTMS NEARLY
EACH AFTN/EVE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR
SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS LIKE
ANNAPOLIS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KLWX 181355
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
955 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE INCREASED ACROSS MID ATLANTIC AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ALOFT.

THE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL VA TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...SOUTH OF I-66 INCLUDING THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS...PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MD...WILL AIDE IN PWATS
INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY TONIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS
REGION BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED BY THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
SW TO NE. AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO INCREASE. SREF MEAN HAS MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AT CHO. LITTLE
SHEAR...DEW PTS IN THE MID 60S AND LITTLE HEATING DUE TO THE
CLOUDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN ISO-SCT COVERAGE OF TSTMS. MOST OF THE
FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE HENCE MOST HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AS THE FORCING SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE. WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CAUSING PWATS TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...THERE
IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN MARYLAND...CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...EVEN ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE LOCALIZED SINCE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED FROM CLOUD COVER AND 1 HOUR FFG GUIDANCE IS NEAR 3
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO OUR EAST
TUESDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARBY ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED SINCE FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK. MAX TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS AND IT WILL FEEL HUMID.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 IN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER ONE SHORTWAVE SLIPS SOUTH OF THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA LATE
TUE...ANOTHER WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED BY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE GFS/EURO AS SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCKED IN BETWEEN
TWO UPPER RIDGES - ONE TO THE NE AND ONE TO THE SW. THE SWRN UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT RETROGRADES BACK FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AREAS TO THE GULF COAST REGION AND UP INTO THE LOWER MS VLY. THE
BUILDING OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE ZONE BACK TO THE WEST WILL SQUEEZE
THE GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH DOWN TOWARD THE MID-ATLC. THE OPPOSING
HIGH BACK ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL ACT AS A
BLOCKING FORCE FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AS WELL.

NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS INCOMING LOW PRES
DISTURBANCE...MAINLY BECAUSE IT WOULD HAVE TO BE FROM ON ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE MID-ATLC ZONE BACK TOWARD THE APLCNS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS NOT A VERY EFFICIENT METHOD OF INFUSING
MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM UNTIL THE FEATURE WOULD REACH THE
NEAR-COASTAL REGION. A GULF FETCH WOULD BE BETTER BUT THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY PREVENT SUCH A FEED. INSTEAD...THE INCOMING
PRECIP FROM WED INTO FRI IS EXPECTED TO BE A HYBRID SUB-TROPICAL AND
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS W/ LOW-TOPPED AND BRIEF CONVECTION /WEAK/ AND
ONLY INTERMITTENT PERIODS AND WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE PERIODS OF TIME WHERE A STEADY AND STABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
STRATIFORM-OUT WRN INCOMING CONVECTION AND BASICALLY WEDGE-IN PART
OF THE AREA W/ DENSE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED/LIGHT SHOWERS.

AS THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE EURO SUGGESTS...THERE MAY BE A
REINVIGORATING OF THE TROUGH IS IT ARRIVES OVER THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE EURO AND GFS DIFFER OF THEIR DEPICTIONS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT BEFORE THEN - THE EURO DEVELOPS SOME MORE
LOCALLY INTENSE BATCHES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA
THU INTO FRI. STILL TOO EARLY TO PRECISELY NAIL-DOWN MUCH MORE THAN
LOW-END POPS FOR THIS LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE AND IS EXPECTED FOR A HANDFUL
OF AREAS BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ARRIVES...BUT IN TERMS OF THIS
MULTI-DAY PERIOD...MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY - OUTSIDE OF
HIGH HUMIDITIES IN THE AIR AND A FEW SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPS EACH DAY WILL BE MODERATED BY THE RELATIVELY HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS BUT STILL REACH AT LEAST THE L80S EACH AFTN W/ PERIODS OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND INTERMITTENT BREAKS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
ALSO BE RELATIVELY WARM SINCE DEWPOINTS WON`T HARDLY BUDGE OUT OF
THE U60S DURING THESE FEW DAYS...SO A RELATIVELY LOW DIURNAL SPREAD
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS KCHO LATER THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THIS TIME. SUBVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCHO WHERE IT WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
TUESDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION FROM WED
INTO FRI. ONLY A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND OF A VERY SCATTERED
NATURE FROM WED THRU FRI...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. CIG HEIGHTS
WILL PERIODICALLY DROP INTO MVFR AND LOWER CATEGORIES
PERIODICALLY...AS SFC WINDS SHIFT TOWARD MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS MAY LIMIT AFTN/EVE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA AND
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
TONIGHT AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...BUT
IT MAY BE CLOSE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...W/
A LARGELY STABLE PERIOD FOR INCOMING AND DEVELOPING TSTMS NEARLY
EACH AFTN/EVE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR
SOUTH LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND ANOMALIES WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND ONE-HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO
BE CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE AREAS LIKE
ANNAPOLIS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









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