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000
FXUS61 KLWX 310333
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1133 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNDER SVRL HRS OF CLRG...TEMPS RADIATED EFFECTIVELY...RIGHT PAST
PRVS MIN-T FCST. HV SVRL SITES IN THE MID-UPR 30S IN THE CENTRAL
SHEN VLY AND FOOTHILLS. DEWPTS INT HE LWR-MID 30S. HV UPDTD MIN-T
FCST BASED ON DEWPTS AND LAMP.

WITH THAT IN MIND...FROST SEEMS LKLY IN THESE LOCATIONS SINCE
TEMPS WL BE IN THE APPROPRIATE RANGE ALL NIGHT. A FREEZE ISNT OUT
OF THE QSTN...BUT HV LWR CONFIDENCE IN THAT-- CERTINALY IN TERMS
OF A WIDESPREAD OCCURENCE. HV ADDED A LATE-BREAKING/SHORT FUSED
FROST ADVY TO MOST OF CENTRAL VA. HAZARD POSTED. GRIDS HV BEEN
SENT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT
SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES
W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA.

THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV
REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE
INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG
THE EVE.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING
ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT.
AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN
FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW.
QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL
WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT
FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET
FLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVS.

LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE
MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY
LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW TOTAL GRID
EXTENDED.

A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR
TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...USHERING IN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS AROUND 5 KFT SLOWLY ERODE TONIGHT. VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI.
CIGS INCREASE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CONDS
XPCTD SAT AS RAIN FILLS IN ACROSS THE DC METROS.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA
VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SAT EVE AND SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
EVENING AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-
     036>040-050>052-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...WOODY!
LONG TERM...WITT
AVIATION...BAJ/WOODY!/WITT
MARINE...BAJ/WOODY!/WITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/WOODY!









000
FXUS61 KLWX 310129
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY...CROSSING THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RETURN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 01Z...MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM AN UPR TROUGH PERSIST OVER THE
NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE MIDWEST
FROM A LOW CENTERED OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN (PER WATER VAPOR) WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE CLOUDS
OVER US SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S AND SOME MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG. 1020MB
SFC HIGH IS OVER THE ERN OH VLY. THIS HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS AROUND 40F INLAND...LOW
30S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPR 40S FOR NEAR SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT
SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES
W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA.

THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV
REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE
INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG
THE EVE.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING
ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT.
AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN
FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW.
QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL
WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT
FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET
FLAKES AT THE HIGHER ELEVS.

LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE
MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY
LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW TOTAL GRID
EXTENDED.

A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR
TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...USHERING IN A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS AROUND 5 KFT SLOWLY ERODE TONIGHT. VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI.
CIGS INCREASE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CONDS
XPCTD SAT AS RAIN FILLS IN ACROSS THE DC METROS.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY. WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA
VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SAT EVE AND SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY
EVENING AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...WOOD!/KLW








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER KENTUCKY WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO COASTAL CAROLINA
SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

NO PROBS FORESEEN TNGT. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA. GIVEN GNRLY CLR
SKIES OVRHD LOWS W OF I-95 WL DROP INTO THE U30S..LM40S E. HIGHS
XPCTD TO DROP BLO FRZG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CHALLENGING FCST FOR THE FOLLOWING 36 HRS. N AMERICAN W.V. STLT
SHOWS A DIGGING TROF IN THE ERN PACIFIC...RIDGING W OF THE ROCKIES
W/ A SHORT WV NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG HEADING TOWARDS N DAKOTA.

THE RDG WL BE TRACKING E OF THE ROCKIES FRI...W/ THE SHORT WV
REACHING THE NRN GRT LAKES FRI MRNG. THIS WL BECOME THE PRIMARY
PLAYER IN THE FCST FOR FRI NGT. AHEAD OF THAT FRI SHOULD SEE
INCRSG CLDS W/ RLVTVLY WARM TEMPS TO END OCT - HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS.

HALLOWEEN EVENING SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLSNT W/ TEMPS IN THE LM50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WL BE CHCS OF RAIN W/ OF I-81 DURG
THE EVE.

MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORT WV SHOULD BE DIVING
ACROSS KY/TN FRI NGT...REACHING THE MTNS OF WRN NC BY SUNRISE SAT.
AS MENTIONED PCPN XPCTD TO BEGIN IN THE W DURG THE LATE AFTN
FRI...BUT BETTER CHCS WL DVLP FRI NGT W/ THE DEEPENING UPR LOW.
QUSTN TURNS TO THREAT OF WINTRY PCPN: AT THIS TIME THINK THIS WL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY ELEVATION - THE 850-1000 TCKNS LN IS STILL
WELL ABV 1300M ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FRI NGT. BLV THAT WINTRY PCPN THAT
FALLS FRI NGT COULD BE A RA/WET SNOW MIX THAT BECOMES LARGE WET
FLAKES AT THE HIGER ELEVS.

LOWS FRI NGT IN THE LM40S. L30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

ON SAT THE UPR LOW WL BE PUSHING OFF THE SC CST. THIS WL KEEP THE
MID ATLC CLDY AND SHOWERY. MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WL CONT TO SPAWN SNSH AT THE HIGHER ELEVS DURG THE DAY. BY
LATE SAT SVRL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WL BE PSBL...BUT ONLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS.

HIGHS SAT IN THE L50S E OF I-81...MU30S IN THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SATURDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL EXIST AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AS WE WILL HAVE A GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OR
TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...USHERING IN A RE-INFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR TO ONLY ALLOW
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MIDDLE 40S AS FAR EAST AS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A MATTER OF
FACT...DUE TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO FALL TO A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD LOWER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY BUT REMAIN A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE MONDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PUSH THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDS TNGT AND FRI. CIGS XPCTD TO DIMINISH FRI NGT. MVFR CONDS
XPCTD SAT.

MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP NEAR BWI AND MTN TERMINALS SATURDAY
EVENING WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT THRU FRI NGT. SCA LKLY NEED SAT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. GALE CONDS PSBL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SAT EVE AND SUN.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY EVENING AS WELL.

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/KLW









000
FXUS61 KLWX 301313
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DESCEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO COASTAL CAROLINA SATURDAY BEFORE TRACKING TO
THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F. FAIRLY LOW
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT... RANGING FROM
MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE METROS/BY THE BAY.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOES NOT
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP...SO EXPECT SIMILAR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST...WHICH MAY ALSO HINDER TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARS...SOME SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WV/MD MOUNTAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

THE WKND FCST WL REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY PLUNGING INTO THE SERN
CONUS FRI NGT-SAT MRNG...CARVING OUT A DEEP UPR TROF/CUTOFF LOW...
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS LT SAT...WHICH WL HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLC SAT
NGT-SUN. WHILE MDL GDNC CONTS TO DIFFER ON SPECIFICS...THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PTTN DESCRIBED ABV SEEMS TO BE NARROWING IN ON A SOLN...
ALBEIT AN ANOMOLOUS ONE.

WL FOLLOW A SCENARIO WHERE MOST OF THE ENERGY WL BE DIPPING W OF THE
CWFA FRI NGT...WHICH WL KEEP POPS HIGH W OF THE BLURDG...BUT LOW IN
THE E. GFS QPF VERBATIM ACTUALLY PAINTS THE I-95 CRRDR DRY ATTM. AM
NOT FEELING THAT CONFIDENT IN ABSOLUTES...AND HV OPTED TO KEEP CHC
POPS IN THE E...BUT EMPHASIZED AFTR MIDNGT TIMING. THIS ENERGY WLL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT...TO THE S OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THIS WL
KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE AREA...THIS
TIME TO THE SOUTH. HV LKLY POPS OKV-METRO DC-DMH SWD. THEN TAPER
POPS OFF AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW/EXTENT OF HGT FALLS...PTYPE BECOMES AN
ISSUE. WL PRESERVE PRVS FCSTS...WHICH CONFINES ANY MIX/SNW TO THE
APLCNS...SPCLY THE WRN SLOPES. IT WUD TAKE AN EXTREME EVENT TO BRING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RA E OF THE MTNS IN ERLY NOV.

"BLUSTERY" LOOKS TO BE A GOOD WX WORD SAT AFTN THRU SUN STILL
LOOKING AT WINDY CONDS SAT AFTN-NGT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PULLS
AWAY. GDNC SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WNDS ARND 20 MPH...AND GUSTS CUD
EASLIY REACH 30-35 MPH. OF COURSE...THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WL DETERMINE THOSE DETAILS.

TOOK MIN-T UP A CPL DEGF FRI NGT DUE TO POOR RADL COOLING CONDS. SAT
NGT WILL BE PRELY BASED ON CAA. CHGS MINIMAL. IT MAY SPELL THE END
OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY AREAS W OF THE BLURDG. MAXT SAT WL BE
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY. MOS HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT...LWR 50S E OF
THE BLURDG AND MID-UPR 40S W.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING
9C...GETTING THE REGION INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4-5KFT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT LESS THAN 10KT BEFORE DECOUPLING THIS
EVENING.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD THIS WKND AS UPR LVL ENERGY PASSES S OF
THE AREA...INITIATING LOPRES WHICH PASSES NE. MVFR SHUD GNLY
PREVAIL... BUT WUDNT RULE OUT LCL IFR FRI NGT-SAT. IN ADDITION...
WL HV WINDY CONDS /NW 20-30 KT/ SAT AFTN INTO SUN WHICH CUD AFFECT
OPS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N TO NW
WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-15KT.

A STORM SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA THIS WKND. SCA CONDS LKLY
BY SAT...AND GLW PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
INTO SUN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE..WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/ADS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 300754
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD INTO
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE VA PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN MD OVERNIGHT IN LOCATIONS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES INTERSECTED AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WERE ABLE TO GO CALM
AND WITHOUT STRONG ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR...THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO
LAST A LITTLE PAST SUNRISE. THE DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE LOCALIZED AND
SHALLOW IN NATURE SO HAVE BEEN COVERING WITH NOWCASTS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY
SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS. IN THE MUCH CHILLIER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
DEPARTED FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F.
FAIRLY LOW SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...RANGING
FROM MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE METROS/BY THE BAY.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FOR MOST
OF THE DAY THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS DOES NOT
ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP...SO EXPECT SIMILAR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST...WHICH MAY ALSO HINDER TEMPERATURES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEARS...SOME SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WV/MD MOUNTAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WKND FCST WL REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY PLUNGING INTO THE SERN
CONUS FRI NGT-SAT MRNG...CARVING OUT A DP UPR TROF/CUTOFF LOW...
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS LT SAT...WHICH WL HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLC SAT
NGT-SUN. WHILE MDL GDNC CONTS TO DIFFER ON SPECIFICS...THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PTTN DESCRIBED ABV SEEMS TO BE NARROWING IN ON A SOLN...
ALBEIT AN ANOMOLOUS ONE.

WL FLLW A SCENARIO WHERE MOST OF THE ENERGY WL BE DIPPING W OF THE
CWFA FRI NGT...WHICH WL KEEP POPS HIGH W OF THE BLURDG...BUT LOW IN
THE E. GFS QPF VERBATIM ACTUALLY PAINTS THE I-95 CRRDR DRY ATTM. AM
NOT FEELING THAT CONFIDENT IN ABSOLUTES...AND HV OPTED TO KEEP CHC
POPS IN THE E...BUT EMPHASIZED AFTR MIDNGT TIMING. THIS ENERGY WLL
SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT...TO THE S OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THIS WL
KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE AREA...THIS
TIME TO THE SOUTH. HV LKLY POPS OKV-METRO DC-DMH SWD. THEN TAPER
POPS OFF AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE LOW/EXTENT OF HGT FALLS...PTYPE BECOMES AN
ISSUE. WL PRESERVE PRVS FCSTS...WHICH CONFINES ANY MIX/SNW TO THE
APLCNS...SPCLY THE WRN SLOPES. IT WUD TAKE AN EXTREME EVENT TO BRING
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RA E OF THERE IN ELY NOV.

STILL LOOKING AT WINDY CONDS SAT AFTN-NGT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
PULLS AWAY. GDNC SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WNDS ARND 20 MPH...AND GUSTS
CUD EASLIY REACH 30-35 MPH. OF COURSE...THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM WL DETERMINE THOSE DETAILS.

TOOK MIN-T UP A CPL DEGF FRI NGT DUE TO POOR RADL COOLING CONDS. SAT
NGT WILL BE PRELY BASED ON CAA. CHGS MINIMAL. IT MAY SPELL THE END
OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR MANY AREAS W OF THE BLURDG. MAXT SAT WL BE
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY. MOS HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON IT...LWR 50S E OF
THE BLURDG AND MID-UPR 40S W.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING
9C...GETTING THE REGION INTO THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS WITH CALM WINDS. KCHO HAS REMAINED IFR OR LOWER MOST OF THE
NIGHT...WHILE KBWI/KIAD HAVE REPORTED PATCHES OF FOG AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE THEN GRADUALLY BURN OFF. OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4-5KFT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND THE SAME LEVEL COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW AT LESS THAN 10KT BEFORE
DECOUPLING THIS EVENING.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS XPCTD THIS WKND AS UPR LVL ENERGY PASSES S OF
THE AREA...INITIATING LOPRES WHICH PASSES NE. MVFR SHUD GNLY
PREVAIL... BUT WUDNT RULE OUT LCL IFR FRI NGT-SAT. IN ADDITION...
WL HV WINDY CONDS /NW 20-30 KT/ SAT AFTN INTO SUN WHICH CUD AFFECT
OPS.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N TO NW
WINDS WILL PEAK AT 10-15KT.

A STORM SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE MARINE AREA THIS WKND. SCA CONDS LKLY
BY SAT...AND GLW PROBABLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS BY SAT AFTN
INTO SUN.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...FOLLOWED BY BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...HTS/GAINES
AVIATION...ADS/HTS
MARINE...ADS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 300125
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
925 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DESCEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THE BUILD
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...1022MB SFC HIGH IS OVER IL/MO. LEADING EDGE OF COLD
FRON IS MOVING THROUGH NERN NC WITH ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP EXTENDING
BACK TO SRN MD. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING.

GROUND FOG IN AREAS THAT GOT RAIN THEN CLEARED OUT THIS EVENING
WILL NOT LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO A BREEZE IN THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

COOL...CANADIAN AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...MAX TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 60F WITH A NW FLOW 10 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. FAIRLY LOW
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ALONG IF
ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE REGION
HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THERE HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES OUT TO SEA
GOING EAST OF CAPE COD. THEN THE LOW ACROSS OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST
ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED TO NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD
BRING IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERHAPS
MIXED WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION
DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW AS WELL, STILL WAY TO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THIS OPTION OCCUR. HOWEVER WE DID PUT IN SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF VA/WV AND MD.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH VERY WINDY NOW AND WE COULD EASILY
SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AREAS FROM DC TO BWI WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MORE OF A EAST FLOW OFF THE WATER
ALLOWING HIGH TO GET TO CLOSE TO 50 ON SATURDAY. MET, MAV GUIDANCE
SETS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WERE INCORPORATED IN THESE PERIODS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY WITH STRONG CAA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PRESENTED BY THE MET AND MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE
WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 9C, GETTING THE REGION INTO THE
60`S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND OVERNIGHT. ANY GROUND FOG THIS EVENING SHOULD
NOT LAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT BREEZE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILD IN THROUGH THU...NWLY FLOW UP TO 10 TO 15 KT.

SEAS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SCA CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JACKSON
PREVIOUS...GAINES/LN/DRAG WFO MT HOLLY








000
FXUS61 KLWX 291954
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE CAROLINAS WILL
INTERACT THIS WEEKEND OFFSHORE EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT AND PRECIP SHIELD WORKING THEIR WAY ACRS THE REGION.  PRECIP
ACRS WRN SECTIONS HAS ALREADY ENDED AND BACK EDGE IS EVIDENT ON
RADAR.  PRECIP SHUD END ACRS DC/BALTIMORE METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND EVERYWHERE LATER IN THE EVE.  THEN HIGH RES WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN.

GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY ACCEPTED.  BUMPED PREV
FCST UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS LATEST GUID WAS A BIT WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THU WITH HIGH PRES IN FIRM CONTROL.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A BIT COOLER ON NWLY FLOW.  AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN, IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.  TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NRML.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. FAIRLY LOW
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE TRACK AND INTENSITY ALONG IF
ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHING THE REGION
HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO SAY THE LEAST FOR THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THERE HAS
BEEN MORE CONSISTANCY OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES OUT TO SEA
GOING EAST OF CAPE COD. THEN THE LOW ACROSS OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST
ALONG A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED TO NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD
BRING IN SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PERHAPS
MIXED WITH WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WITH STEADIER PRECIPITATION
DYNAMICAL COOLING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD CHANGE RAIN OVER TO
SNOW AS WELL, STILL WAY TO EARLY TO HONE IN ON ANY POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD THIS OPTION OCCUR. HOWEVER WE DID PUT IN SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF VA/WV AND MD.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH VERY WINDY NOW AND WE COULD EASILY
SEE SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT DOWN OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STEADIEST
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. AREAS FROM DC TO BWI WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MORE OF A EAST FLOW OFF THE WATER
ALLOWING HIGH TO GET TO CLOSE TO 50 ON SATURDAY. MET, MAV GUIDANCE
SETS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WERE INCORPORATED IN THESE PERIODS. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY WITH STRONG CAA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
PRESENTED BY THE MET AND MAV AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY.


MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION SO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GIVE WAY TO WAA FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL WARMUP IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS THEN LIKELY TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE INCLUDED A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. WENT WARMER ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE
WAA AND 925 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 9C, GETTING THE REGION INTO THE
60`S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT AND RAIN APPROACHING FROM THE W.  GOOD CAA BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT CURRENT THINKING IS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH THIS SURGE SO WILL
OPT FOR AN MWS. HIGH PRES BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THU SO NO
ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE ANTICIPATED.

SEAS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SCA CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COASTAL LOW ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WFO STERLING WILL BE RESUMING NORMAL FORECASTING OPERATIONS LATER
TODAY. 44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
NEAR TERM...LN/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
SHORT TERM...LN/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
LONG TERM...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
AVIATION... DRAG/ WFO MOUINT HOLLY
MARINE...LN/WFO MOUNT HOLLY AND HTS/ADS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/ WFO MOUNT HOLLY
EQUIPMENT...DRAG/GAINES WFO MOUNT HOLLY









000
FXUS61 KLWX 291426
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1026 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC CDFNT WORKING ITS WAY NEWD. PCPN ALIGNED BHD THE FNT. NO
DOUBT...THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN WORKING TO SATURATE ATMOS.

SYNOP AND MESOSCALE GDNC IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING FNT /AND PCPN/
THRU CWFA SLOWLY TDA. EVEN THO WE/RE NOT MAKING THE MOST OF SFC
CNVGNC...THERE/S MORE THAN ENUF LIFT FM THERMAL DISCONTINUITY AND
RRQ OF UPR JET. HV INCRSD POPS SOMEWHAT...ALTHO HV HELD BACK FM
FULL-FLEDGED CATEGORICAL.

HV A DECENT SURGE OF CAA IMMEDIATELY BHD PCPN...AND CAA WL CONT THRU
TNGT. TOOK MAXT DOWN BY PERHAPS A DEGF OR TWO TDA...AND THEN MIN-T
DOWN BY A CPL TNGT.

CURRENT FCST LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIPRES WL BE CRESTING OVER CWFA THU. NO PCPN XPCTD. FOR THAT
MATTER...THERE WL BE VERY FEW CLDS TO START THE DAY THU. DO THINK
THAT THERE WL BE DIURNAL CU AS WELL AS AN ADVCTV MID DECK BY EVNG.

GOOD MOS AGREEMENT ON MAXT...MID-UPR 50S WL BE IT. MIN-T A BIT MORE
OF A CHALLENGE. ALL DEPENDS UPON HOW QUICKLY CLDS/WAA COME IN. IF
EITHER HOLDS OFF...THEN TEMPS CAN PLUMMET QUITE QUICKLY. HV GONE LWR
THAN PRVS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL THEN INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST. THE GREATEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WRAP-AROUND
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW MAY NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR WEST. BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA-WIDE. AS
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. DUE TO THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM...THE COLDEST READINGS OF THIS SURGE MAY WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT NOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE HIGH DOMINATES INTO
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. A
FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL TAFS WERE AMENDED BETWEEN 930 AND 10AM FOR A DELAY IN SHOWERS
AND/OR ADDITIONAL TAF INFO BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS. CDFNT CROSSING TERMINALS TDA. THE WSHFT TO NW
WILL COME FIRST...AND IS IN PROGRESS NOW THROUGH KBWI KDCA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SHIFT BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TPLM2 STILL G20KT AHD OF CDFNT IN SLY FLOW. HV SCA TIL 6AM FOR MID
BAY AND LWR PTMC.

WSHFT TO NW WL COME DURING THE DAY. WHILE HV A GOOD SURGE OF CAA BHD
FNT...MIXING NOT THAT GREAT DUE TO PCPN LAGGING BHD FNT. HV OPTED TO
CAP GUSTS BLO SCA CRITERIA FOR THE DAYTIME-EVNG HRS. GRADIENT DROPS
AFTR THAT AS HIPRES BLDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A GALE WARNING MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
EQUIPMENT...









000
FXUS61 KLWX 290757
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
357 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC CDFNT ENTERING THE SHEN VLY ELY THIS MRNG. PCPN ALIGNED BHD THE
FNT. WHILE DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPR 50S ATYPICAL FOR LT OCT...00Z RAOB
WAS STILL QUITE DRY. NO DOUBT...THE LEADING EDGE OF PCPN WORKING TO
SATURATE ATMOS.

SYNOP AND MESOSCALE GDNC IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING FNT /AND PCPN/
THRU CWFA SLOWLY TDA. EVEN THO WE/RE NOT MAKING THE MOST OF SFC
CNVGNC...THERE/S MORE THAN ENUF LIFT FM THERMAL DISCONTINUITY AND
RRQ OF UPR JET. HV INCRSD POPS SOMEWHAT...ALTHO HV HELD BACK FM
FULL-FLEDGED CATEGORICAL.

HV A DECENT SURGE OF CAA IMMEDIATELY BHD PCPN...AND CAA WL CONT THRU
TNGT. TOOK MAXT DOWN BY PERHAPS A DEGF OR TWO TDA...AND THEN MIN-T
DOWN BY A CPL TNGT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES WL BE CRESTING OVER CWFA THU. NO PCPN XPCTD. FOR THAT
MATTER...THERE WL BE VERY FEW CLDS TO START THE DAY THU. DO THINK
THAT THERE WL BE DIURNAL CU AS WELL AS AN ADVCTV MID DECK BY EVNG.

GOOD MOS AGREEMENT ON MAXT...MID-UPR 50S WL BE IT. MIN-T A BIT MORE
OF A CHALLENGE. ALL DEPENDS UPON HOW QUICKLY CLDS/WAA COME IN. IF
EITHER HOLDS OFF...THEN TEMPS CAN PLUMMET QUITE QUICKLY. HV GONE LWR
THAN PRVS FCST.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
INCREASING AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL THEN INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST. THE GREATEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WRAP-AROUND
FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW MAY NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR WEST. BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP...AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA-WIDE. AS
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN...SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. DUE TO THE
MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM...THE COLDEST READINGS OF THIS SURGE MAY WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT NOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE HIGH DOMINATES INTO
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BUT REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. A
FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CDFNT CROSSING TERMINALS TDA. THE WSHFT TO NW WL COME FIRST...LKLY
DURING THE MRNG PUSH. PCPN WL FLLW. AS OF 06Z TAFS...WASNT CERTAIN
ABT ANY RESTRICTIONS. WHILE STILL FEEL VFR WL GNLY PREVAIL...WUDNT
RULE OUT LCL MVFR.

SKIES WL CLR TNGT. NW FLOW WL CONT INTO THU...W/ DIURNAL CU SCT050.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY BRING MVFR CEILINGS ON SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
TPLM2 STILL G20KT AHD OF CDFNT IN SLY FLOW. HV SCA TIL 6AM FOR MID
BAY AND LWR PTMC.

WSHFT TO NW WL COME DURING THE DAY. WHILE HV A GOOD SURGE OF CAA BHD
FNT...MIXING NOT THAT GREAT DUE TO PCPN LAGGING BHD FNT. HV OPTED TO
CAP GUSTS BLO SCA CRITERIA FOR THE DAYTIME-EVNG HRS. GRADIENT DROPS
AFTR THAT AS HIPRES BLDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A GALE WARNING MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...HTS/ADS
MARINE...HTS/ADS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 290055
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
855 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THEY ARE STILL AT LEAST 2-3 HOURS
AWAY FROM THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW...WHICH IS APPROACHING THE OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA
LINE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD LIKELY ONLY MAKING IT NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT. FRONT MAY WIND UP BECOMING MORE
ANAFRONTAL BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT OCCURRING BEFORE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS. HAVE MAINLY LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF EXPECTED. RE-POPULATED
GRIDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS OF OBS AND
GUIDANCE /PARTICULARLY SREFS/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID- ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE HIGHLANDS AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE
REGION INTO THURSDAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS. A STRATO-CU DECK IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM
SIDE OF THE TROUGH DIGS NEARLY MERIDIONALLY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.
AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH...OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CLOSED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS
IS LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE THE LOW. THE PRIMARY EFFECT OF THIS
DIFFERENCE LOCALLY IS UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND TIMING OF THE EFFECTS
OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST REFLECTS EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WORK PRECIP
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
CWA ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD SEE TEMPS
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...SPECIFICALLY THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...IS
POSSIBLE...ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THEN RETURNS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW AND TEMPS WILL
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT. MAV/MET WERE ATTEMPTING
TO BRING MVFR VIS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE. SHOWERS MAY
MAKE IT TO MRB LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. BRIEF MVFR IN -SHRA POSSIBLE BUT MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL LIKELY BE GTE 6SM.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS TONIGHT. TPLM2 JUST HAD A PEAK GUST 21KT
LAST HOUR. SCA IN EFFECT AND CHANNELLING LIKELY KEEPS SCA WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
WIND SHIFT. SCA MAY NEED A BRIEF EXTENSION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE SHIFT TO THE NW...BUT CURRENTLY NW PUSH APPEARS TO BE
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. A PRESSURE
SURGE IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BUT THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A GALE WARNING MAY BE
NECESSARY SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE SOUTHERLY FLOW...ANOMALIES HAVE ACTUALLY COME DOWN THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ANNAPOLIS WAS THE POINT OF CONCERN...BUT WITH
ONLY ABOUT 1/3 FT ABOVE NORMAL NOW AND LITTLE INCREASE BETWEEN NOW
AND HIGH TIDE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DURING
HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING NOR WEDNESDAY MORNING EITHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 15 DEGREES F ABOVE
NORMAL...MORE TYPICAL OF TEMPERATURES IN MID-SEPTEMBER...AND VERY
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS. BELOW IS A TABLE OF TODAY/S HIGH
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SITE...TODAY/S HIGH...RECORD HIGH FOR 10/29...
DCA....80.............82 IN 1918..............
BWI....80.............82 IN 1946 AND 1945.....
IAD....82.............83 IN 1984..............

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...BPP/HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/HAS/CEB
MARINE...BPP/HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
CLIMATE...DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 281841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW...MIXING AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A SHIELD OF CIRRUS
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD REACHING THE HIGHLANDS LATE TONIGHT. THE LINE WILL
BE FIGHTING A DRY AIRMASS SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT REACHING
THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE SLOW SE FLOW
ALOFT ABOUT 20-30 KTS. FCST MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60S ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES EASTWARD REACHING SOUTHERN MARYLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE HIGHLANDS BY WED MORNING. TEMPS WILL NOT BE DIURNAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WED. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE REACHED BEFORE NOON. RAINFALL AMTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID- ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE HIGHLANDS AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE
REGION INTO THURSDAY. NRLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS. A STRATO-CU DECK IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FCST MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN
AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM
SIDE OF THE TROUGH DIGS NEARLY MERIDIONALLY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME.
AT THE BASE OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH...OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CLOSED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS
IS LESS INCLINED TO CLOSE THE LOW. THE PRIMARY EFFECT OF THIS
DIFFERENCE LOCALLY IS UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK AND TIMING OF THE EFFECTS
OF THE SURFACE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST REFLECTS EXPECTATION THAT THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WORK PRECIP
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE
CWA ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD SEE TEMPS
10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...SPECIFICALLY THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...IS
POSSIBLE...ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THEN RETURNS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW AND TEMPS WILL
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. -SHRA
ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES BUT DUE TO A DRY
AIRMASS...RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIGHT S
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY WED MORNING FOR MRB AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS. NW WINDS 5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
S WINDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MD CHESAPEAKE
BAY TONIGHT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS WED AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS AND THEREFORE
S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A PRESSURE
SURGE IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BUT THE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. N-NW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY SATURDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS CAUSING TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TODAY.
WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE
AREAS NEAR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR ANNAPOLIS. ANOMALIES WILL
NEED TO RISE TO 0.8 FEET AND AT THIS TIME THEY ARE AROUND 0.6
FEET. SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
ANOMALIES. ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
RECORD AT DULLES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY. BELOW IS A LIST OF
THE PREVIOUS RECORDS AT IAD...DCA AND BWI.

IAD...83 IN 1984
DCA...87 IN 1919
BWI...87 IN 1919.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...HAS/CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HAS/CEB
MARINE...HAS/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS
CLIMATE...LWX









000
FXUS61 KLWX 281332
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
932 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THIS MORNING AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC IS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. CIRRUS HAVE BLANKETED
MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. A MTN WAVES WAS OBSERVED IN THE IR SAT IMAGERY THIS
MORNING AND LED TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN MD. PER THE 12Z
IAD RAOB...A STRONG INVERSION EXISTS ABOVE THE SFC. SFC HEATING
AND MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS TO BREAK BUT NOT COMPLETELY DUE TO THE
TIME OF YEAR AND SUN ANGLE. A MIX OF CIRRUS AND SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TODAY LEADING TO WARMER THAN USUAL CONDITIONS. FCST MAX
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MARYLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...BUT SKIES WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK
AND WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WITH
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL TURN OUT NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO
TUESDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN
SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT THAT HANG AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT DRIER AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDWEST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO
THE NORTHWEST.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND TROUGH...OR PERHAPS
CLOSED LOW...DIGS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTER SHOWING SOME SIMILARITIES IN
RECENT RUNS...THE 00Z MODELS DIVERGED AGAIN...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
A MUCH DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. WHILE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE NOTION OF
A DEEP TROUGH...THERE IS SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE. THE PATTERN IS
TRICKY SINCE IT INVOLVES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION BUT IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE. THE DEEPER SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT THE ECMWF. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...WHAT INITIALLY
APPEARED TO BE A LOW POP EVENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD BECOME
MORE SHOWERY WITH AN AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. BUMPED POPS UP A
LITTLE...BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES. THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS DO STAND THE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
TIME FRAME WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE PATTERN
IS SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR THIS FALL TO
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT IN...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. SATURDAY COULD ALSO BE BREEZY IF A STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MIXING LAYER DECREASES THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND CIGS/VSBYS MAY
APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
COOLER WATERS DECREASING THE MIXING LAYER A BIT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO EXCEED
SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TODAY.
WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE
AREAS NEAR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS
THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
RECORD AT DULLES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY. BELOW IS A LIST OF
THE PREVIOUS RECORDS AT IAD...DCA AND BWI.

IAD...83 IN 1984
DCA...87 IN 1919
BWI...87 IN 1919.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BJL/AS
MARINE...BJL/AS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
CLIMATE...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 280758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...USHERING IN UNUSUALLY WARM AIR FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND A RELATIVELY DEEP
MIXING LAYER THE MAX TEMP FORECAST IS CLOSER TOWARD THE WARMER
GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S NEAR THE WASHINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MARYLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...BUT SKIES WILL GIVE
WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK
AND WELL OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WITH
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL TURN OUT NOTICEABLY COOLER COMPARED TO
TUESDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 50S IN THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN
SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT THAT HANG AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT DRIER AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
MIDWEST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE TO
THE NORTHWEST.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AMPLIFIES AND TROUGH...OR PERHAPS
CLOSED LOW...DIGS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD. AFTER SHOWING SOME SIMILARITIES IN
RECENT RUNS...THE 00Z MODELS DIVERGED AGAIN...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING
A MUCH DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION. WHILE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE NOTION OF
A DEEP TROUGH...THERE IS SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE. THE PATTERN IS
TRICKY SINCE IT INVOLVES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION BUT IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE. THE DEEPER SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...SO CANNOT
RULE OUT THE ECMWF. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...WHAT INITIALLY
APPEARED TO BE A LOW POP EVENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD BECOME
MORE SHOWERY WITH AN AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. BUMPED POPS UP A
LITTLE...BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES. THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS DO STAND THE CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
TIME FRAME WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE PATTERN
IS SETTING UP THIS WEEKEND FOR SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR THIS FALL TO
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT IN...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. SATURDAY COULD ALSO BE BREEZY IF A STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MIXING LAYER DECREASES THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND CIGS/VSBYS MAY
APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
COOLER WATERS DECREASING THE MIXING LAYER A BIT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANNEL ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE WINDS TO EXCEED
SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY IMPACT THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TODAY.
WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR SENSITIVE
AREAS NEAR HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS
THE FLOW TURNS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE UNUSUALLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
OLD RECORD AT DULLES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY. BELOW IS A LIST
OF THE PREVIOUS RECORDS AT IAD...DCA AND BWI.

IAD...83 IN 1984
DCA...87 IN 1919
BWI...87 IN 1919.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BJL/AS
MARINE...BJL/AS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL
CLIMATE...BJL










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