Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KLWX 251339
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY AFTERNOON AND USHER IN HIGHER DEWPTS.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND AFTER A CHILLY MORNING AND REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION...
LATER THIS EVE...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE
NW DOORSTEP...SLIDING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE UPON
REACHING THE SPINE OF THE APLCNS W/ LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LEFTOVER
MID CLOUDS TO MAKE IT PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MODERATE OVERNIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U40S SO
TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST AND REPLACED BY NOTICEABLY COLDER/DRIER AIR. SOLID NW WINDS
WILL BE THE REASON...AS THE DEEP UPPER PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST...THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WILL
SWEEP THE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND REPLACE IT W/ A DRY AND WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S AND A FEW L70S. NW WINDS AROUND 20MPH AND LOW RH`S MAY LEAD
TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING MET SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. QUIET HIGH PRES TODAY W/ JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTN. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME THE CONCERN SUNDAY...AS SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REACH THE
15-25KT RANGE RANGE - LOCALLY HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER-IN
THIS NEW WINDY DAY EARLY SUN...W/ GUSTS CONTAINING UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT W-SW WINDS 5-10KT THIS AFTN. A
QUICK- MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER WINDY
DAY ON SUNDAY. A SCA UP FOR ALL THE WATERS STARTING JUST A COUPLE
OF HRS AFT SUNRISE AND LASTING THRU THE EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING SWLY BY AFTERNOON...CBOFS HAS
TIDAL ANOMALIES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FCST IS FOR
ANNAPOLIS TO REACH MINOR FLOOD EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL NOT ACT ON
THIS RIGHT NOW SINCE THE WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP ANOMALIES
FROM RISING QUICKLY. AT THIS TIME ANOMALIES ARE AROUND A HALF FOOT
AT ANNAPOLIS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...HAS/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 250748 CCA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BARELY A DROP OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS ATTM - OUTSIDE OF THE
PAC NW AND FRINGE AREAS OF THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
JET STREAM IS HANGING JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER BUT WILL
BRIEFLY SWING SOUTH OF THE BORDER TO CARRY THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
FEATURE IS A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER THAT WILL QUICKLY MAKE THE JOURNEY
FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GENERATE AS THE WAVE APPROACHES NRN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY. THE SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW...NOT ALLOWING IT TO DEVELOP MUCH OF A
MID-LAT CYCLONIC CHARACTER. SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO THE MID-ATLC
REGION.

PLENTY OF COLD AIR LOCKED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE UPPER WAVE BUT IT
WILL BE CONCENTRATED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW...
CREATING A GOOD HEIGHT GRADIENT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY MEAN ANOTHER WINDY DAY FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT
FOR TODAY...ANOTHER PLEASANT AUTUMN AFTN TODAY. CURRENT TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY COOL BUT NOT TOO FAR BELOW AVG VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AND ONLY BECAUSE DRY NW WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE
U30S. AFTER SUNRISE...DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT REBOUND AS WINDS
TURN MORE SWLY. TEMPS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE 60S BY LATE
MRNG...TOPPING OUT JUST BELOW 70 BY MID AFTN W/ CLEAR SKIES AND ONLY
A STEADY WLY BREEZE. USED AN EVEN BLEND OF BIAS-CORRECTED ADJMAV/MET
TEMPS.

LATER THIS EVE...THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ON THE
NW DOORSTEP...SLIDING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A HANDFUL OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE UPON REACHING THE
SPINE OF THE APLCNS W/ LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LEFTOVER MID CLOUDS TO
MAKE IT PAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MODERATE
OVERNIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS ONLY DROP INTO THE M-U40S SO TEMPS WILL
STAY IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY...THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SWEPT OFF TO THE
EAST AND REPLACED BY NOTICEABLY COLDER/DRIER AIR. SOLID NW WINDS
WILL BE THE REASON...AS THE DEEP UPPER PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST...THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WILL
SWEEP THE AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND REPLACE IT W/ A DRY AND WINDY DAY.
DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...SFC TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
U60S AND A FEW L70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THRU THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. QUIET HIGH PRES TODAY W/ JUST
A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SW WIND THIS AFTN. WINDS AGAIN
BECOME THE CONCERN SUNDAY...AS SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS REACH THE
15-25KT RANGE RANGE - LOCALLY HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL USHER-IN
THIS NEW WINDY DAY EARLY SUN...W/ GUSTS CONTAINING UNTIL LATER THIS
EVE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW 10-15KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT AS THE EVEN THE LAND AREAS CONTINUE TO
SHOW WINDS OUT OF THE NW - WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS. AT LEAST A CHANGING TREND IN STORE TO HEAD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUMP UP WINDS AGAIN THIS AFTN BUT ONLY
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE AND OUT OF THE SSW. A QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE PRECURSOR TO ANOTHER WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY. A SCA UP FOR
ALL THE WATERS STARTING JUST A COUPLE OF HRS AFT SUNRISE AND LASTING
THRU THE EVE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS











000
FXUS61 KLWX 250741
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
341 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO
DIMINISH. LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS
OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 70S IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE HIGH MONDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR MILDER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS SHELTERED
VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
USHER IN UNUSUALLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND THERE MAY
EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...BUT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN OF
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS TONIGHT BUT TAKE IT`S BREEZY INFLUENCE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL
THE WATER THIS AFTN. MAY NEED TO FURTHER EXPAND THE SCA FOR THE
LOWEST BAY ZONES BUT WILL MONITOR UPCOMING SCA POTENTIAL.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 250053
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
853 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
S/WV DIGGING ACRS APPALACHIA THIS EVNG. THE H5 TROF AXIS
PROVIDING A PLACE FOR CI TO CONGREGATE-- THESE CLDS HV MVD LTL
SINCE LT AFTN. GDNC SUGGESTING NEARLY SATD UPR LVLS WL SHIFT EWD
BTWN 06-12Z. HV ADJUSTED SKYCOVER AND WL MAKE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TOO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY
WHILE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10
MPH. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS.

FCST MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID
TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. HV MADE AN ADDTL UPWD BUMP OF A DEGF OR TWO
BASED ON FRI OBS AND 18Z GDNC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CI DECK CROSSING THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG. WNDS SUBSIDING...AND HV
ACTUALLY DCPLD AT SVRL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV SUBSIDED ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. ALLOWED THE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 6PM...AND HV CANCELLED THE REST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HTS/HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 242350
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
750 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC MOVES AWAY.

NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO SFC FEATURES. THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ONLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FCST MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 DEG ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. FCST MAX
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER
60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CI DECK CROSSING THE TERMINALS THIS EVNG. WNDS SUBSIDING...AND HV
ACTUALLY DCPLD AT SVRL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HV SUBSIDED ACRS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. ALLOWED THE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS TO EXPIRE AT 6PM...AND HV CANCELLED THE REST.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. W-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/HAS
MARINE...HTS/HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 241845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE SE US TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC MOVES AWAY.

NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL
EXISTS BETWEEN THE TWO SFC FEATURES. THIS GRADIENT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. ONLY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FCST MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 DEG ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SC/GA COAST. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH W-SW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVC CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. FCST MAX
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...FRIDAY...MID TO UPPER
60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK IN NATURE AS THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY BE
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE MOISTURE...WOULD EXPECT ANY AMOUNTS TO BE VERY LIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE IN LIQUID FORM AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR 40 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A
BREEZY SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING. MINIMAL THERMAL DIFFERENCES BEHIND
THE FRONT...PLENTIFUL SUN AND A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE...
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. HAVE
MID-UPPER 30S WEST OF THE METROS BUT FEEL THESE AREAS COULD SNEAK A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. MENTION OF PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THESE AREAS. MID 40S CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE METROS. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXPANDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES THAT A SHORTWAVE FROM NORTHERN PLAINS CROSSING GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. 500MB TROUGH AND WEAK PVA CROSSING CWA
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT FROM WEST WILL CROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT THE CWA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ECMWF TIMING SEEMS TO TRACK
FAIRLY WELL WITH HPC ENSEMBLE HPC INDICATES THAT PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE LESS PRECIPITATION THAN ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW WINDS 10-15 KTS G 20KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL
BECOME NW-W 5-10 KTS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVERHEAD. MIXING WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT AS GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST IN THESE SPOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER
PORTIONS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND W-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AND NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS. A SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-537-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAS
NEAR TERM...HAS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HAS
MARINE...HAS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 241357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
957 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOOKOUT AREA.
NW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
THIS AREA. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
MOVES EASTWARD.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH FCST MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

PREV DISCUSSION...
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC
BUT WILL HELP TO USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER
MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET
TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR
ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A
BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO
MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/ NEWER HI-RES WRK
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE CLIMO. OF COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
GUSTY WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-25KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HRS TONIGHT...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS/HAS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 241012 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
612 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL THE WATERS NOW -
THAT WAS TO GO INTO EFFECT AT 9AM. GUSTS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA W/ LITTLE...IF ANY DISSIPATION THRU THE
POST-DAWN HRS.

PREV DISC...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL
OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE CLIMO. OF COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE
GUSTY WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX
TEMPS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH.
LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A
GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HRS TONIGHT...KEEPING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...BJL/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 240736
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
336 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX RIBBON HELPING MIX-DOWN THE GUSTY WINDS ATTM
AND WILL CONTINUE HOVERING OVER THE AREA INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS THIS
MRNG. OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE...W/ OVERALL SFC WINDS
AT A STEADY 10-15KT CLIP OUT OF THE NW. THE EXITING AND SLOW-MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO STILL HANGING AROUND
NEW ENGLAND...E OF THE HUDSON RVR/ERN NY. THE VORT MAX MERELY
SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...BEING PULLED ALONG
BY THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH EWD PROGRESS IN THE COMING
HRS. FOR THIS REASON...WINDS WILL STAY FAIRLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT WHICH
IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON - THEN PICK BACK UP EVEN FURTHER AFTER DAWN.

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MIXING-DOWN W/ SOME OF THE
GUSTS...WHICH IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGHER THAN W/ A NW
FLOW REGIME. EVEN THOUGH SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR ATTM...DEWPOINTS
ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIS IS KEEPING TEMPS ON THE
WARMER SIDE. IF NOT FOR THE MOISTURE...TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE
DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND 30S IN SHELTERED VLYS...BUT MOST
SITES ARE BARELY AOB 55F CURRENTLY.

NOT QUITE AS GUSTY TODAY AS ON THU BUT TEMPS WILL END UP IN ABOUT
AROUND THE SAME LEVELS - M60S...U60S OVER THE SRN TIER COUNTIES.
PLENTY OF SUN TODAY...A FEW PASSING UPPER DECKS AS A PRECIP-LESS
SHORTWAVE DIGS WELL TO OUR SOUTH...OVER THE SRN APLCNS. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP ITS INFLUENCES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLC BUT WILL HELP TO
USHER-IN THE MORE CALMING EFFECT OF AN UPPER MIDWEST HIGH. AFTER THE
SFC FLOW DISSIPATES POST-SUNSET TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY
REBOUND AGAIN INTO THE 40S...FOR ANOTHER REL MILD TEMP RANGE FOR OUR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. APPLIED A BIAS-CORRECTED MET/MEX FOR TODAY`S
HIGH/LOW TEMP GRIDS. ALSO MODIFIED WINDS IN THE NEAR/SHORT TERMS W/
NEWER HI-RES WRK GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAKE A QUICK ENTRANCE ON
SAT...SLAMMING UP AGAINST THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. THIS FAST UPPER NW FLOW WILL START TO BRING IN THE
CLOUD COVER TO THE MTNS ON SAT...BUT LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FAIRLY DRY AND CLEAR UNTIL LATER IN THE EVE. BEING ON THE RIGHT-EXIT
DOWNWARD MOTION SIDE OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK BUT STEADY DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY HELP BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW MORE DEG...PEAKING IN THE M-U60S - POSSIBLY JUST
ABOVE 70F FOR SAT AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE FORCING AND LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THEREFORE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THESE AREAS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND A
GRADIENT WIND HOLDING OFF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS OF THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNSHINE AND A
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL OFFSET ANY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE ABOVE CLIMO. OF
COURSE...THE MILD CONDITIONS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE GUSTY WINDS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX TEMPS
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MIDDLE 70S
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN
MARYLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND
BALTIMORE. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...BUT
CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER BREEZY AFTN TODAY BUT A TIER LOWER IN TERMS OF PEAK
GUSTS...WHERE 15-20KT WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON FROM AFTER SUNRISE.
SEVERAL MORE HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HRS...OF THE STEADY BREEZE
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF TOWARD SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA INTO SAT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HRS TONIGHT BUT TAKE IT`S BREEZY INFLUENCE. SCA CONTINUED FOR ALL
THE WATER THIS AFTN. MAY NEED TO FURTHER EXPAND THE SCA FOR THE
LOWEST BAY ZONES BUT WILL MONITOR UPCOMING SCA POTENTIAL.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ530-531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL/GMS
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 240105
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
905 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM OFF CAPE COD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT
AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

LOPRES OFF ACK THIS EVE. IT/LL CONT TO PULL AWAY OVNGT. AS
XPCTD...THE GRADIENT SLACKENED QUITE A BIT AFT SUNSET...AND MAY
COME CLS TO OUTRIGHT DCPLG BY DAWN. STILL HV STCU TO CONTEND WITH
THO. THERES A PATCH OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APLCNS AND ANTHR FM
HGR-EZF NEWD. CLD DECK LOOKING RATHER THIN ON RAOB...BUT THERE/S
AN INVSN ATOP IT. GDNC BUFR DATA SUGGESTING LTLCHG IN CLDS OVNGT.
WL GNLY SIDE W/ THAT SOLN...ALTHO MAY EASE UP ON INTENSITY
/PERCENTAGE/ TWD DAWN. THAT CLDCVR CHG WL IN TURN AFFECT MIN-T.
ADDED A CONTRIBUTION FM MET/NAM WHICH BROUGHT MIN-T CLOSER TO
LAMP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL
LOW...WHICH WILL BE REACHING THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...SO NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1000-500MB
THICKNESS AND A PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND MID 50S TO
LOW 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE METRO AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN AREAS THAT
RADIATE WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN...WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES OF NOTE...1- A
PRESSURE SURGE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BUT NO PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...2- A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND 3- A POTENTIAL APPROACHING TROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ALL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT.

DEEP-LAYER /DRY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE FROM MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. THUS THE REFLECTION
AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COULD BE GUSTY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER
IN A COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. RIGHT NOW THE AREAS
THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING HAVE ALREADY HAD THEIR
GROWING SEASON ENDED BY A FREEZE EARLIER THIS WEEK...BUT IF WINDS
DIE OFF QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE EVENING MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE AIRMASS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW. MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SO AT THE MOMENT PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY.

BEYOND THIS TIME IS WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH NON-NCEP GUIDANCE
DEPICTING A FLAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE
GFS/SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH AND IMPENDING
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF NEXT THURSDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM SPREAD IN HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE GFS
SLOWER/DEEPER RESULTING IN WEST COAST RIDGING/DEEPER EAST COAST
TROUGHING...AND THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING THE
UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND FLATTENING OUT THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW RESULTING IN A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND TELECONNECTIONS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT THE MOMENT BUT THAT STRAYS
FROM THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TIME WILL
BE THE BEST INDICATOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE PATTERN IS READY FOR
A CHANGE OR IF THE MID-ATLANTIC IS IN STORE FOR ANOTHER LARGE AND
SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STORMINESS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH VALID TAF PD. NW FLOW AROUND 10KT OVNGT...LIGHTER AT KCHO.
VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-15KT...GUSTING TO 20KT LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN-MON NIGHT. GUSTY NW FLOW SUN UP TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT INTO MON AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SUBSIDING AS LOPRES PULLS AWAY. MAROBS SUGGEST ALL WINDS AOB
15 KT ATTM...AND HV BEEN SO SINCE JUST AFDK. HV DROPPED SCA FOR
NARROWER WATERWAYS /MID-UPR PTMC/NRN BAY/BALT HARBOR/PAX RIVER/
THUS FAR. AM REAL TEMPTED TO DROP THE REST FOR THE OVNGT HRS.

WNNDS RENEW FRIDAY MORNING W/ DIURNAL MIXING AS GUSTS AROUND 20KT
ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY COULD RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/KCS/DFH
MARINE...HTS/KCS/DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH NWLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-30KT. CLOUD SHIELD PERSISTS OVER ERN MD AND PORTIONS OF
NRN VA/WASHINGTON DC METRO...AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME...EXCEPT OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF
THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD...REACHING EASTERN WV BY EARLY MORNING. GUSTS
EXPECTED TO END AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS NEAR FREEZING IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL
LOW...WHICH WILL BE REACHING THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...SO NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1000-500MB
THICKNESS AND A PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND MID 50S TO
LOW 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE METRO AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN AREAS THAT
RADIATE WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN...WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES OF NOTE...1- A
PRESSURE SURGE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BUT NO PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...2- A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND 3- A POTENTIAL APPROACHING TROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ALL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT.

DEEP-LAYER /DRY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE FROM MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. THUS THE REFLECTION
AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COULD BE GUSTY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER
IN A COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. RIGHT NOW THE AREAS
THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING HAVE ALREADY HAD THEIR
GROWING SEASON ENDED BY A FREEZE EARLIER THIS WEEK...BUT IF WINDS
DIE OFF QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE EVENING MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE AIRMASS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW. MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SO AT THE MOMENT PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY.

BEYOND THIS TIME IS WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH NON-NCEP GUIDANCE
DEPICTING A FLAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE
GFS/SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH AND IMPENDING
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF NEXT THURSDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM SPREAD IN HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE GFS
SLOWER/DEEPER RESULTING IN WEST COAST RIDGING/DEEPER EAST COAST
TROUGHING...AND THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING THE
UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND FLATTENING OUT THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW RESULTING IN A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND TELECONNECTIONS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT THE MOMENT BUT THAT STRAYS
FROM THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TIME WILL
BE THE BEST INDICATOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE PATTERN IS READY FOR
A CHANGE OR IF THE MID-ATLANTIC IS IN STORE FOR ANOTHER LARGE AND
SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STORMINESS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH NW FLOW AROUND 10KT...LIGHTER AT KCHO.
VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-15KT...GUSTING TO 20KT LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN-MON NIGHT. GUSTY NW FLOW SUN UP TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT INTO MON AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS
20 TO 30KT. MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A POTENTIAL BRIEF
INCREASE IN GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THAT POSSIBILITY. SCA EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHERN TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONES...BUT RENEWS FRIDAY MORNING AS
GUSTS AROUND 20KT ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY COULD RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KCS/DFH
MARINE...KCS/DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231846
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
246 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION...WITH NWLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-30KT. CLOUD SHIELD PERSISTS OVER ERN MD AND PORTIONS OF
NRN VA/WASHINGTON DC METRO...AND OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME...EXCEPT OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF
THE CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD...REACHING EASTERN WV BY EARLY MORNING. GUSTS
EXPECTED TO END AFTER SUNSET AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOWS NEAR FREEZING IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE COASTAL
LOW...WHICH WILL BE REACHING THE MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE
DAY...SO NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KT IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1000-500MB
THICKNESS AND A PARTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND MID 50S TO
LOW 60S AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE METRO AREAS...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN AREAS THAT
RADIATE WELL FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RATHER BENIGN
PATTERN...WITH DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES OF NOTE...1- A
PRESSURE SURGE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES BUT NO PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...2- A
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND 3- A POTENTIAL APPROACHING TROUGH
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ALL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT.

DEEP-LAYER /DRY/ NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE FROM MOVING OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. THUS THE REFLECTION
AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED
BY ANY PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COULD BE GUSTY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL USHER
IN A COOLER AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
FREEZING OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES. RIGHT NOW THE AREAS
THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL TO FREEZING HAVE ALREADY HAD THEIR
GROWING SEASON ENDED BY A FREEZE EARLIER THIS WEEK...BUT IF WINDS
DIE OFF QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE EVENING MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHLANDS.

THE AIRMASS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW. MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
PASSES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SO AT THE MOMENT PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE OF THE MORE SCATTERED VARIETY.

BEYOND THIS TIME IS WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE...WITH NON-NCEP GUIDANCE
DEPICTING A FLAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE
GFS/SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH AND IMPENDING
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF NEXT THURSDAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM SPREAD IN HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE GFS
SLOWER/DEEPER RESULTING IN WEST COAST RIDGING/DEEPER EAST COAST
TROUGHING...AND THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE A LITTLE QUICKER BRINGING THE
UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND FLATTENING OUT THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW RESULTING IN A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND TELECONNECTIONS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AT THE MOMENT BUT THAT STRAYS
FROM THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. TIME WILL
BE THE BEST INDICATOR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE PATTERN IS READY FOR
A CHANGE OR IF THE MID-ATLANTIC IS IN STORE FOR ANOTHER LARGE AND
SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STORMINESS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT. GUSTS END AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH NW FLOW AROUND 10KT...LIGHTER AT KCHO.
VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS 10-15KT...GUSTING TO 20KT LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN-MON NIGHT. GUSTY NW FLOW SUN UP TO 25
KTS POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT INTO MON AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS
20 TO 30KT. MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A POTENTIAL BRIEF
INCREASE IN GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THAT POSSIBILITY. SCA EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT FOR NORTHERN TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ZONES...BUT RENEWS FRIDAY MORNING AS
GUSTS AROUND 20KT ARE EXPECTED MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

A PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SOUTHERLY CHANNELING BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY COULD RESULT IN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...KCS/DFH
MARINE...KCS/DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231524
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS PRIMARILY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE CLOUDS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 MPH. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA
SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S
NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE OVER
WASHINGTON DC LATE THIS MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER BALTIMORE METRO
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMTN. WINDS
WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING OVER PORTIONS OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 30KT THIS MORNING...EVEN UNDER BETTER LATE
MORNING MIXING CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. GUSTS IN THE LOWER BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC MAY REACH
30 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING TO A
POTENTIAL BRIEF INCREASE IN GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
MARINE UPDATE...KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS PRIMARILY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE CLOUDS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 MPH. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA
SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S
NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE OVER
WASHINGTON DC LATE THIS MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER BALTIMORE METRO
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMTN. WINDS
WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MU20 KT LVL ON MUCH OF THE WATERS ATTM.
PRES GRAD WL CONT ACROSS THE MID ATLC TDA. STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY
FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE W/ FURTHER LO LVL DESTABILIZATION...SO
KEEPING THE GALE FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE DROPPED IF GUSTS DO NOT
INCREASE FURTHER LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231440
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS
LATE THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD IS PRIMARILY NORTH
AND EAST OF THE POTOMAC RIVER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. UPSLOPE CLOUDS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THIS AREA FOR ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
30 MPH. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA
SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S
NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE OVER
WASHINGTON DC LATE THIS MORNING...BUT PERSIST OVER BALTIMORE METRO
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KMTN. WINDS
WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MU20 KT LVL ON MUCH OF THE WATERS ATTM.
PRES GRAD WL CONT ACROSS THE MID ATLC TDA. STILL SOME OPPORTUNITY
FOR GUSTS TO INCREASE W/ FURTHER LO LVL DESTABILIZATION...SO
KEEPING THE GALE FOR NOW...BUT IT MAY BE DROPPED IF GUSTS DO NOT
INCREASE FURTHER LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING
THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...AVIATION AND MARINE UPDATES...KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230745
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AFTR THE CLOUDY/RAINY WX OF THE PAST 2 DAYS TDA WL BE A DAY OF
TRANSITION...WHICH LOOKS TO BE LEADING INTO SOME VERY NICE WX THIS WKND.

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRES PRSNTLY 330 MILES E OF DC CONTS TO
SPIN LGT RA INTO NJ/DE BUT THIS HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS IT TRACKS
SWRD TOWARDS MD. WHAT IS LEFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NERN PART OF
OUR FCST AREA IS LOW CLDS. THIS WL LKLY CONT IN THE BALT AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAYLGT HRS.

THE PRES DIFFERENCE BTWN THE LOW AND HIGH BLDG INTO OH/IN WL
RESULT IN A BRZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. NWRLY WINDS WL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPS DOWN TDA. WARMEST AREA SHOULD BE THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FM THE M60S NEAR CHO TO THE U50S ALONG THE M-D
LN AND IN THE HIGHLANDS.

TIME OF PARTIAL ECLIPSE - 5:50 TO 6;15 PM. APPROX 1/4 OF SUN WL BE
COVERED IN THE SWRN SKY. CLDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING DURG THIS
TIME. BEST CHCS FOR VIEWING WL MOST LKLY BE IN THE WRN PART OF THE
CWA AND CENTRAL SHEN VLLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRES CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TNGT. CLDS SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING DURG THE EVE. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVRNGT. TEMPS
RANGING FM THE M30S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO THE U40S IN THE CITIES.
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE LM40S.

FRI SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF SVRL VERY NICE DAYS. HIGH PRES BLDG
OVR THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO M SUNNY SKIES...LGTR NWRLY WINDS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MU60S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WHILE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRI...ANOTHER EMBEDDED UPPER TROUGH
WILL PASS OVERHEAD INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE DRY...ONLY
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED BATCHES OF LOW-MID CLOUD DECKS OVER THE
AREA. AN STRONG UPPER JET WILL THEN CARRY THE NEXT CLIPPER-FEATURE
DOWN FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FROM
SAT INTO SUN. GUIDANCE MEMBERS IN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS NEXT
WAVE AND THE LACK OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

ALL THE WHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND COVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATED AND
NEAR-AVG CONDITIONS FOR OUR REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE MED RANGE WILL BE SUNDAY...W/ THE APPEARANCE OF THE BACK
END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE A SUBSIDENCE SWIPE ACROSS THE
REGION AND MIX-DOWN SOME OF GUSTY WINDS.

MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED RAIN W/ THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND/OR DISSIPATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL PA BEFORE
REACHING THE MASON-DIXON LINE BOTH SAT AND SUN. POPS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE AREA FOR THE NEAR TERM AND NOT INTRODUCED AGAIN TIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ AN EXPECTED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST HIGH PRESSURE ZONE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHED ALONG BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM MODEL DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE`S PROGRESSION AND WHETHER IT
WILL BREAK OFF INTO SEPARATE WAVES OF WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE EAST COAST. LEANED
TOWARD THE EURO W/ THE SRN STREAM PIECE SPLITTING OFF AND EVENTUALLY
SLIDING A WEAKENING AND PRECIP-LIGHT COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW PRES SPINS OFF THE MID ALTC CST. THIS WL SLOWLY TRACK NNE TDA
BUT CONTS TO PUSH ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE NERN PART OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS IS KEEPING BWI/MTN CIGS AOB 030..AND THIS SHOULD CONT
FOR SVRL MORE HRS B4 RISING INTO VFR RANGE. RMDR OF TAF SITES
SHOULD BE VFR TDA. WINDS WL CONT TO BE GUSTY FM THE NW.

VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES TNGT AND FRI.

A BREEZY AFTN ON SUN BUT NOT OVERLY SO...MAINLY A STEADY 15-25KT NW
BREEZE DURING THE DAYTIME HRS - DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE AREA`S WX QUIET OTHERWISE. THE NEXT WX-FEATURE
EXPECTED TO BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MU20 KT LVL ON MUCH OF THE WATERS ATTM.
PRES GRAD WL CONT ACROSS THE MID ATLC TDA. W/ FURTHER LO LVL
DESTABILIZATION AFTR SUNRISE GALE WRNG IS IN EFFECT ON CHES BAY S
OF SANDY PT. WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THIS EVE...BUT ONLY TO
SCA LVLS. SCA SHOULD CONT FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BUILD OVER THE AREA AND KEEP A QUIET-WX
INFLUENCE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH...A FAST-MOVING
UPPER WAVE WILL CARRY GUSTY WINDS ON SUN AFTN/EVE...SCA CONDS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT NO OTHER HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOPRES OFF THE NJ SHORE ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN
HAS MAINLY PUSHED EWD TO THE CHSPK BAY. A FEW ELEMENTS MAY STILL
GLIDE SWD ALONG/E OF I-95 THRU THE EVNG...AND AM CARRYING CHC POPS
TO ACCT FOR THIS THRU MIDNGT.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THE CLRG THAT SUBSIDENCE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
CARVED OUT E OF THE BLURDG. ALTHO THE LWX SNDG FAIRLY SATD...
THERE/S PLENTY OF DRY AT VIA RNK RAOB. BELIEVE THAT CLDS WL PART
AREAWIDE OVNGT.

BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT PLENTY OF WIND NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GRND...
HWVR MOMENTUM TRANSFER LOOKS REMARKABLY POOR FOR NW FLOW. SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR LWX RAOB...THX TO SLGT H9-8 CAP. WL BE KEEPING PRVS
THROUGH PROCESS OF NO WND ADVY NCSRY...AS THE HIEST WINDS ALOFT WL
BE JUST E OF BLURDG. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

RAISED MIN-T SVRL DEGF...BASED ON CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TERMINALS UP TO VFR CONDS ATTM...AND THAT SHUD HOLD OVNGT INTO
THU. CIGS BKN-OVC035-040...BUT CLRG STARTING TO BREAK OUT JUST E
OF BLURDG AND SHUD OVERSPREAD TAF SITES BEFORE MRNG PUSH. WINDS
SHUD BE THE ONLY FACTOR AFFECTING TERMINALS. G20-25 KT STARTING TO
WANE AT THE GRND...BUT WNDS AT THE HUBS 1000-2000 FT UP PROGGED TO
INCR TO 40 KT. AT LAST RUN...THAT WASNT ENUF TO TRIGGER LLWS
RMK... BUT ITS LKLY ENUF TO HV AN IMPACT.

SIMLR CONDS THRU END OF TAF PD AS LOPRES E OF NJ MVS TWD NEW
ENGLAND.

VFR UNDER HIPRES RDG THRU THE WKND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. GRADIENT PROGGED TO INCR...AND HIER
WNDS POISED JUST OFF THE DECK. MIXING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. HV OPTED
TO ADD SANDY PT-NORTH BEACH TO GLW FOR POSITIONING TO STRONG
P-GRAD AND FVRBL FETCH. ELSW...AM HOLDING ONTO SCA THRU THE NGT
INTO THU.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NGT AS WELL AS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AM NOT TACKLING
THAT NOW DUE TO ONGOING GLW HAZARDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS/CEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOPRES OFF THE NJ SHORE ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN
HAS MAINLY PUSHED EWD TO THE CHSPK BAY. A FEW ELEMENTS MAY STILL
GLIDE SWD ALONG/E OF I-95 THRU THE EVNG...AND AM CARRYING CHC POPS
TO ACCT FOR THIS THRU MIDNGT.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THE CLRG THAT SUBSIDENCE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
CARVED OUT E OF THE BLURDG. ALTHO THE LWX SNDG FAIRLY SATD...
THERE/S PLENTY OF DRY AT VIA RNK RAOB. BELIEVE THAT CLDS WL PART
AREAWIDE OVNGT.

BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT PLENTY OF WIND NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GRND...
HWVR MOMENTUM TRANSFER LOOKS REMARKABLY POOR FOR NW FLOW. SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR LWX RAOB...THX TO SLGT H9-8 CAP. WL BE KEEPING PRVS
THROUGH PROCESS OF NO WND ADVY NCSRY...AS THE HIEST WINDS ALOFT WL
BE JUST E OF BLURDG. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

RAISED MIN-T SVRL DEGF...BASED ON CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TERMINALS UP TO VFR CONDS ATTM...AND THAT SHUD HOLD OVNGT INTO
THU. CIGS BKN-OVC035-040...BUT CLRG STARTING TO BREAK OUT JUST E
OF BLURDG AND SHUD OVERSPREAD TAF SITES BEFORE MRNG PUSH. WINDS
SHUD BE THE ONLY FACTOR AFFECTING TERMINALS. G20-25 KT STARTING TO
WANE AT THE GRND...BUT WNDS AT THE HUBS 1000-2000 FT UP PROGGED TO
INCR TO 40 KT. AT LAST RUN...THAT WASNT ENUF TO TRIGGER LLWS
RMK... BUT ITS LKLY ENUF TO HV AN IMPACT.

SIMLR CONDS THRU END OF TAF PD AS LOPRES E OF NJ MVS TWD NEW
ENGLAND.

VFR UNDER HIPRES RDG THRU THE WKND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. GRADIENT PROGGED TO INCR...AND HIER
WNDS POISED JUST OFF THE DECK. MIXING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. HV OPTED
TO ADD SANDY PT-NORTH BEACH TO GLW FOR POSITIONING TO STRONG
P-GRAD AND FVRBL FETCH. ELSW...AM HOLDING ONTO SCA THRU THE NGT
INTO THU.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NGT AS WELL AS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AM NOT TACKLING
THAT NOW DUE TO ONGOING GLW HAZARDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS/CEB









000
FXUS61 KLWX 221852
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE OCEAN EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH OR ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARDS CAPE COD.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND
IMPACTS JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
PORTIONS OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. RAIN SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY PERSIST IN THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION. LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND
AROUND 60 IN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LEFTOVER RAIN
NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION OVER THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT PRECIPITATION AS THE AREA
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE SHALLOW. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE...BUT MAY DIMINISH FOR A FEW HRS OVERNIGHT IF AN
INVERSION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HIGHEST 925MB JET WILL BE PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY
GUSTS IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON AT DC AREA
TERMINALS. BALTIMORE AIRPORTS WILL BE LAST TO SEE RAIN END LATE
THIS EVENING. PRIMARILY MVFR CONDS...BUT PDS OF VFR WHEN LOWER
CLOUDS SCATTER. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF AVIATION HAZARDS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
PERIODIC RAIN TODAY. SCA THROUGH TODAY AS NWLY FLOW INCREASES.
GALES OVER THE SRN MD WATERS AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES. ELECTED NOT TO
ISSUE A GALE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AS HIGHEST WINDS ALOFT NOT
LIKELY TO MIX DOWN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>532-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-541-543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...KCS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...KCS/CEB
MARINE...KCS/CEB










    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities