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000
FXUS61 KLWX 240134
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
934 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 01Z...1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER GREAT LAKES WHILE
996 MB LOW CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS HAS KEPT UP THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE STILL BEING
REPORTED IN FROM DC METRO...AS FAR WEST AS MARTINSBURG...AND
EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. FURTHER WEST...
THERE HAS BEE A QUICK DECOUPLING OF HIGHER WINDS AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST 18Z NAM PROGS 925
MB NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH 09Z...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST OT EAST TO
LESS THAN 20 KT BY 18Z ON THURSDAY.

EXPECTING WINDS WILL ABATE IN MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH WINDS STILL A BIT GUSTY
EAST OF I-95 TILL MAYBE AN HOUR LATER.

IN AREAS WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ONE CONCERN
IS THAT WITH THE DRY AIR AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...THAT COMBINATION COULD ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST IN PLACES MAINLY AWAY FROM DC AND BALTIMORE
METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...LOWERING DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT WILL HELP
KEEP A BIT OF A SPREAD BETWEEN AIR AND DEW PT TEMPS. THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FROST CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH A FEW AREA COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE
COLDER VALLEYS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

ON THURS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED WITH COOLISH TEMPS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER IS CONCERN ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...FROM CARROLL CO MD ACROSS TO
HARFORD CO AND SOUTH INTO ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES IS MORNING NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 20/25 MPH ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S. THUS
HAVE CONVERTED PORTION OF PREVIOUS FIRE WATCH INTO A RED FLAG
WARNING. SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FURTHER
WEST. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS MTNS
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN
FLOW WILL BE USHERING IN WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE SFC FROPA WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FROPA. SFC HEATING IN
CENTRAL VA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN A ISO
THUNDERSTORM.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE FROPA TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME KEPT TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE FROPA MOVES
FASTER TEMPS WILL BE LOWER. LITTLE QPF IF ANY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FROPA. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NW SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE SATURDAY
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LEAD TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...STARTING
AS THIN HIGH CIRRUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT LOWERING AND
THICKENING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS DUE TO A VERY COMPLEX
PATTERN...WITH A STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTERACTING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PINCHED IN BETWEEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE...UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NW WINDS CONTINUE GUSTING INTO 20-25KT RANGE AT 01Z. EXPECT SUFFICIENT
AIRMASS DECOUPLING TO TAKE NEAR SFC WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE EQUATION
BY 02Z. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THIS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

ON THUR...VFR WITH N/NW WINDS 10KT WITH GUST TO 25 KT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. VCTS IS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE FROPA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
CANCELLED GALE AT 6 PM...AND SCA CONTINUES ACROSS ALL MARINE AREA TONIGHT.
ON THUR...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
MAINLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...TO BELOW SCA LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED A FEW HRS EARLY ON THU DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE AXIS OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCA
MAY BE NEEDED AS GUSTS INCREASE IN THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. WINDS WILL BECOME WRLY BEFORE ANOTHER FROPA CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS EVEN POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A PARTICULARLY ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE GREATER BALTIMORE AREA.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
LIKELY ELSEWHERE SUCH AS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA... AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA. WINDS WILL EASE
SOONER FOR THESE AREAS...SO A RED FLAG WARNING WAS NOT WARRANTED AS
OF THIS TIME FOR THESE AREAS.


&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ005>007-010-011-014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMZ
NEAR TERM...SMZ
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...SMZ
MARINE...SMZ
FIRE WEATHER...BAJ










000
FXUS61 KLWX 231902
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
302 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 1025 MB SFC HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/
GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 995 MB SFC LOW NEAR
THE GULF OF MAINE STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC
COAST. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNSET AS A RESULT OF A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF 60F THIS
AFTN ACROSS NRN VA...ERN WV AND WRN/CENTRAL MD DUE TO CAA AND
STRATOCU THAT HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH
FROM S TO N THRU SUNSET AS SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS WHILE THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST.

HIPRES CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD TNGT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS REACHING THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TNGT. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND
BECOME LGT ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DESPITE FCST MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE WRN AND NRN SUBURBS OF DC/BALTIMORE...
WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS SHOULD INHIBIT FROST FORMATION. PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
ACTIVE.

HIPRES MOVES OVERHEAD ON THU. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH MOVES IN WHICH WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN
HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MD. THE 12Z GFS WAS
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT WINDS ARE LGT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ALL DAY WHILE THE SLOWER NAM KEEPS WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
TOWARD THE GREATER BALTIMORE METRO. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA
EXCEPT FOR COOLER SPOTS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND IN THE MTS.

HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE THU NGT. SLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AND CLOUDS
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOPRES SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK FRI MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS MTNS
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN
FLOW WILL BE USHERING IN WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY FRI
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE SFC FROPA WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD AND ALONG THE FROPA. SFC HEATING IN
CENTRAL VA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN A ISO
THUNDERSTORM.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FROPA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE FROPA TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME KEPT TEMPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE FROPA MOVES
FASTER TEMPS WILL BE LOWER. LITTLE QPF IF ANY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FROPA. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS AND PUT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND NW SUBURBS OF DC AND BALTIMORE SATURDAY
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LEAD TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...STARTING
AS THIN HIGH CIRRUS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT LOWERING AND
THICKENING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN.

LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL...AS WELL AS THE TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE AND THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS IS DUE TO A VERY COMPLEX
PATTERN...WITH A STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
INTERACTING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PINCHED IN BETWEEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
SUCH AS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE...UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD
LINGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BREEZY NW WINDS WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30 KT
THRU 22Z. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVE PARTICULARLY AFTER
SUNSET. CU FIELD AROUND 5 KFT QUICKLY DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. NW
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT TNGT...BECOMING LGT TOWARD DAYBREAK AT CHO/MRB
AS HIPRES SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST ON THU WITH THE HIGH MOVING
OVERHEAD. NW WINDS NEAR 15 KT STILL EXPECTED AT BWI/MTN. LGT SLY
WINDS DEVELOP THU NGT ONCE HIPRES PROGRESSES OFFSHORE.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. VCTS IS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL VA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW BEHIND THE FROPA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MARINE OBS INDICATE HIGH-END SCA OCCURRING AREA WIDE. OPTED
TO KEEP THE GALE WARNING GOING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S STILL BEING OBSERVED. WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNSET BUT
NW WINDS 15-25 KT SHOULD STILL CONTINUE TNGT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THU BUT CONDITIONS MORE MARGINAL. SCA MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED A FEW HRS EARLY ON THU DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE AXIS
OF THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCA
MAY BE NEEDED AS GUSTS INCREASE IN THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC. WINDS WILL BECOME WRLY BEFORE ANOTHER FROPA CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND A GALE WARNING IS EVEN POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS MAY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NEAR THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THRU 8 PM.
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN AND RH UP SO FAR ACROSS THE NRN
VA...ERN WV AND NRN MD WHERE NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO 35 MPH. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE THOUGH AND RH IS NOW
IN THE 30S SO WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. FARTHER
SOUTH IN CENTRAL VA...RH HAS DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT BUT WINDS
ARE GENERALLY AROUND 15 MPH. AFTER COORDINATING WITH VA STATE FIRE
OFFICIALS...WILL ALSO KEEP RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. WINDS
SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...JRK









000
FXUS61 KLWX 231351
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
951 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1023 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WHILE A
COLD FRONT STETCHES FROM A 995 MB SFC LOW OVER MAINE SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN A BREEZY DAY. STRONG
CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER UP TO 800 MB AS SEEN ON THE 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING. ACCORDINGLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH FOR MUCH OF TDA.

CAA PATTERN HAS PRODUCED STRATOCU AS MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER IS TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FIELD. UPDATED
SKY COVER FCST GRIDS USING THE RH FIELD AT THE TOP OF THE MIXING
LAYER FROM THE RAP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EVOLUTION OF STRATOCU TDA.
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA THIS MRNG BEFORE CLOUDS ERODE FROM S TO N INTO THE
AFTN. LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE TO THE UPPER 50S...WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD ON THE LONGEST.
OTHERWISE...OFFICIAL MAX TEMP FCST IN LOW TO MID 60S FALLS ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH STRONG HEATING AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY TNGT...
WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...
SINCE THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND
SHEN VLY WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY TDA FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS. NW WINDS HAVE QUICKLY PICKED UP THIS MRNG WITH GUSTS
25-35 KT ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT 13Z. EXPECT GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE TO CONTINUE THRU AFTN BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TOWARD
SUNSET THIS EVE. BKN STRATOCU FIELD BETWEEN 4-5 KFT THIS MRNG WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR CHO BEFORE ERODING FROM S TO N
THIS AFTN.NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT CONTINUES TNGT...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS AT DCA-BWI-MTN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
20-30 KT WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT. GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TDA. MIXING WILL
DEEPEN EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTN BUT MODELS SHOW THE WIND FIELD
AT THE TOP OF THIS MIXING LAYER WEAKENING A BIT. MAY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE GALE WARNING A FEW HRS EARLY THIS AFTN WITH HIGH END
SCA WINDS FAVORED. SCA CONTINUES TNGT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE MID ATLC REGION FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM TDA. NW WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH. MRNG UPDATE TO THE
FCST KEEP MAX TEMPS AT OR EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW PREV FCST
BUT DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO LOWERED THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN
TO THE SFC. PAST STUDIES HAVE SHOWN DEWPOINTS AT THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SFC DEWPOINTS DURING THE
PEAK HEATINGS HRS IN SITUATIONS LIKE TDA. 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING
SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA. FUEL MOISTURE OBS YDA WERE BETWEEN
5-8 PERCENT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER THE
FUEL MOISTURE.

WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CAUSE TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG.
HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-
     009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-
     036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-
     055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
FIRE WEATHER...JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK/BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH. WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEING USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED THRU EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THEY WILL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A POTENT VORT LOBE
SWINGING DOWN ACROSS THE MASON-DIXON LINE IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MIXING-DOWN THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN THE COMING
HRS...HELPING TO DROP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE M-U40S BY THE PREDAWN HRS
WHICH IS ACTUALLY RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVG FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND THE SUN COMES OUT IN THE COMING HRS...MORE OF
THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER
VORT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST NEAR DAWN...W/ THE SUBSIDENCE REGION
SETTING UP DIRECTLY OVER ERN MD AND TAPERING OFF INTO NRN VA. TEMPS
WILL EVENTUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE L-M60S THIS AFTN...BUT WINDS IN
THE 20-30MPH RANGE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME CHILL FACTOR IN THE AIR
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL PEAK NEAR 40MPH
DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTN DURING PEAK HEATING.

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW RHS AND LOW FUEL MOISTURES WILL
CREATE THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER TODAY - SO A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS TODAY.
SEE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

ONCE THE UPPER VORT COMPLETELY MOVES OFF THE COAST SLOWLY INTO THU
MRNG...WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. NERN MD
WILL REMAIN THE SOME OF THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...SINCE
THE RIBBON OF UPPER VORTICITY WILL STILL BE HANGING OUT OVER
DELMARVA - VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. A DAY`S WORTH OF
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN AGAIN INTO THE M-U30S FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A FEW AREAS OF THE CWA LIKE THE APLCNS AND SHEN VLY
WILL SEE TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...RANGING FROM THE 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME AREAS
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE VALLEYS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
MAY REACH INTO THE 70S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO
NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS WITH IT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH.

THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SO MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT
MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DUE TO A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BRINGING DRY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS.

CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. MID-20KT RANGE GUSTS ALREADY HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS...W/ A SOLID 12-OR-SO MORE HRS TO GO
W/ THE STRONGER TIER OF WINDS. AFTER SUNRISE...GUSTS AOB 30KT WILL
BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA - ESPEC OVER NRN MD AND JUST INTO NRN
VA...ALL OUT OF THE NW TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF TO
15-20KT LATER THIS EVE AFTER SUNSET BUT STAY BREEZY OVER THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND EAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE AREA WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THURSDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS KMRB AND KCHO.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIKELY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND IT WILL STALL OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER-END SCA CRITERIA RANGE ARE
APPEARING OVER THE WATER...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MD BAY OVERNIGHT.
MORE MARGINAL GUSTS EXIST OVER THE REST OF THE BAY/TP RVR. WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. ONCE THE
SUN RISES IN A FEW HRS...HIGHER WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRETY OVER THE MD BAY AND TP RVR AND GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS. HEADING INTO THE LATE EVE
HRS...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO A GENERAL 15-20KT RANGE.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS REPLACED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE MID ATLC REGION TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE STRONGER OVER NRN AND
ERN MD...THOUGH THE LOWEST RHS/HIGHEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER
NRN VA PIEDMONT. ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVED A COUPLE/FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY BE
NULLIFIED BY THE RELENTLESS AND DRY NW WINDS FOR MOST OF TODAY.
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE PAST FEW HRS...GETTING STRONGER AND DRIER AFTER
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY AND DEWPOINTS WILL DROP
TO THE U20S/L30S. LATER THIS EVE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP DOWN TO
MORE OF A 10-15MPH BREEZE.

DRIER AIR WILL CAUSE EVEN LOWER RH VALUES THURSDAY...BUT WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND WHERE THE WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS WILL CAUSE
TIDAL BLOWOUT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG. HOWEVER...TIDAL BLOWOUT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DCZ001.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-018.
VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VAZ054.
WV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL/GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 230135
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...996MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER NRN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY
THEN SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED
OFF THE SHORE NEAR BALTIMORE AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. JUST A FEW SHOWERS WEST OF THE
FRONT WITH NW FLOW INCREASING. OVERNIGHT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED...INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS
LOW TO MID 40S INLAND...UPR 40S URBAN/NEARSHORE.


HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. COLD AIRMASS WILL
BE MODERATED A BIT BY THE HIGH SUN ANGLE. FORECAST UPDATE A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET WHICH CAME OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS. THIS
IS REASONABLE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXCEPT FOR COOLER
HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WED NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
DEPART TO OUR EAST WED EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 30S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED TO AROUND 40 IN THE
METROS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SUNNY
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REACH 70-75 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
STRONG PRESSURE SURGE/COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE CLOSEST TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SATURDAY. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THESE AREAS.

AT THE MOMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE PRESSURE SURGE WILL OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND MIXING DOWN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WOULD BE EASIEST.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES OVER THE REGION...BUT ITS STAY OVER OUR AREA IS
SHORT-LIVED AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS THROUGH TAF PERIOD NOW THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST. NWLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH 30 KT GUSTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GUSTY NW FLOW CONTINUES WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE
TERMINALS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU TNGT WITH NWLY FLOW
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THE GALE
WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADING SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD WEAKENS A BIT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH AN SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THAT TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY AND LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY. A DEEP MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX
DOWN...CAUSING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE
THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS AND SURROUNDING WFOS...A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN STEADY AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF A
FOOT THIS EVENING. NWLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS WILL CAUSE ANOMALIES
TO DECREASE TO ABOUT HALF A FOOT BELOW MLLW.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/JRK
NEAR TERM...BAJ/JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...










000
FXUS61 KLWX 221914
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
314 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW JUST NORTH OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE SW OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL NY-WRN PA AND
BACK TOWARD THE OH RVR.

A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND MOISTURE
PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE CHSPK BAY LATE THIS AFTN. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR
PIT. HI-RES REFLECTIVITY MODELS THAT CAPTURED THIS CONVECTION
SIMULATE THIS LINE TO REACH THE ALLEGHENY FRONT BY 4 OR 5 PM BEFORE
MOVING SEWD THRU PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE ERY EVE. KEPT POPS
HIGHEST ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH. TSTM
POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS EVE. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
USHER IN COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST
TO EAST TNGT AS WELL...ALTHOUGH STRATOCU WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY ALONG THE WRN SIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
WINDS WILL STAY MIXED SO ADVECTION WILL BE MAIN SOURCE OF AIRMASS
COOLING TNGT. MIN TEMPS TNGT RANGE FROM THE NEAR 30F IN THE WRN
HIGHLANDS TO MID AND UPPER 40S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WED. PRESSURE RISES WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY NW WINDS THAT GUST 30-40 MPH DURING THE
DAY. COLD AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATED A BIT BY THE HIGH SUN ANGLE.
FCST WEIGHTED TOWARD THE WARMER BIAS CORRECT MARV GUIDANCE WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S EXCEPT FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG
HIGHER ELEVATIONS RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE MOVING TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND WED NIGHT AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL
DEPART TO OUR EAST WED EVENING. TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW 30S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AS CLEARING AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED TO AROUND 40 IN THE
METROS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SUNNY
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVES OFF THE
COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REACH 70-75 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
STRONG PRESSURE SURGE/COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED...SO ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE CLOSEST TO THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SATURDAY. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THESE AREAS.

AT THE MOMENT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE PRESSURE SURGE WILL OCCUR
DURING PEAK HEATING WHEN LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST AND MIXING DOWN
HIGHER WIND GUSTS WOULD BE EASIEST.

WINDS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES OVER THE REGION...BUT ITS STAY OVER OUR AREA IS
SHORT-LIVED AS A LARGE AND SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST BRINGING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LGT SHRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF IAD AND WILL IMPACT
DCA/BWI/MTN THRU ABOUT 21Z. INTENSITY HAS BEEN SO LGT THAT NO FLGT
RESTRICTION WERE ACCOMPANIED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
OUT OF THE WEST AS THESE SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVE THRU
BUT WILL BE LGT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THIS EVE. ANY TSRA
WITH THE FRONT THIS EVE WILL BE LOCALIZED AND PROBS TOO CHANCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST TO 25 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT THRU MUCH OF TNGT. NW WINDS INCREASE ON WED DUE TO DAYTIME
MIXING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. VFR ON WED.

NW FLOW WILL SUBSIDE WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THRU TNGT. SCA LVL REPORTS ONLY
ISOLATED THUS FAR BUT ANY SHOWERS MOVING THRU COULD DRAG DOWN
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING A COLD FROPA
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVE AND INTO THE OVNGT. WIDESPREAD SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY. THE GALE WARNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE DOWNGRADING
SOMETIME DURING THE AFTN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED
WIND FIELD WEAKENS A BIT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A
SCA IS IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THEREFORE THE
SCA FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC WILL DROP LATE WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY INTO THURSDAY. A SCA
MAY BE EXTENDED FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY.

A PERIOD OF HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A STRONG BUT
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT SATURDAY AND LIKELY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATE OFFICIALS AND
SURROUNDING WFOS...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN STEADY AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF A
FOOT THIS AFTN. SLY WINDS WILL BECOME WLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS
AND ANOMALIES WILL DECREASE SUBSEQUENTLY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-502.
VA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501-502-504.
WV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ050>053-055-502-504-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ535-536.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...HAS
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/HAS/DFH
MARINE...JRK/HAS/DFH
FIRE WEATHER...JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK









000
FXUS61 KLWX 221433
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1033 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY AT
13Z. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1000 MB SFC LOW NEAR THE SRN
ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER. PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE MTS THIS MRNG IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEADING MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. UPSTREAM RADAR AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE  SUPPORT DECREASING POPS WITH THE FCST FOR TDA WITH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THIS WOULD MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/JET STREAK AND SFC LOW REMAINING TO OUR NORTH.

12Z IAD RAOB REVEALED AN IMPRESSIVE LLVL INVERSION WITH THE WARM
NOSE OF 19C AT 950 MB. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MIX DOWN THIS WARMER
AIR. THEREFORE INCREASED MAX TEMPS FOR TDA ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER TO CONTEND WITH. TEMPS THIS AFTN COULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE STRONG HEATING THIS
MRNG WILL PRECEDE ARRIVAL OF DENSER CLOUDS THIS AFTN.

LLVL WINDS ARE FCST TO VEER MORE OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTN BEHIND A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT LOWER DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE MTS THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE INDICATING JUST PRIOR TO FROPA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
RAOB SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR A SFC TEMP NEAR 80F AND DEWPOINT NEAR
50F REVEAL MARGINAL INSTABILITY (SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG) OWING TO THIS
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR COVERAGE OF TSTMS ISOLATED AND TSTM INTENSITY
WEAK. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR A 2-4 HR WIND THIS AFTN IN THE MTS
AND DURING THE LATE AFTN/ERY EVE TOWARD THE I-95 AND THE CHSPK
BAY.

AS THE VORT MAX FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEARS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE GUSTIER PARTS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET
MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC AND NW WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA W/
GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HRS. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...W/ LOWER WIND CHILLS FROM THE GUSTY AND DRY
NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MIN TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A COUPLE
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HI CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST THIS MRNG
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRA BEFORE 16Z AT MRB/CHO
AND BETWEEN 16-18Z FARTHER EAST. NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
WITH THESE LEADING SHRA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND ISO TSRA
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE WRN TERMINALS AND 21-00Z FROM IAD
EWD. BRIEF/LOCAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN WHEN A
COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU AND TURNS WINDS BACK TO THE NW AND HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE APPEAR FOR THE LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT HRS.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY INTO
WED MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...LIKELY
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING
THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY...BUT MOST PLACES WILL END UP DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ SOME MINOR
CHANNELING BUT SUB-SCA UNTIL THIS AFTN. SHOWERS WILL CARRY ISOLATED
HIGHER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVE. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED WINDS EXISTS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU
LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING MORE WIDESPREAD AND NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WELL INTO SCA RANGE.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY...LIKELY TRIGGERING
A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. DAY SHIFT HAS COORDINATE WITH STATE
CONTACTS ABOUT FUEL MOISTURE. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR TOMORROW AND WOULD BE ISSUED THIS AFTN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BE AROUND THREE-
QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL NORM. THE TIDAL
ANOMALIES SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS AFTN AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WEST OF SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP TIDAL LEVELS BELOW THRESHOLDS
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JRK/GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
FIRE WEATHER...BJL/JRK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK









000
FXUS61 KLWX 220756
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEING PUSHED TOWARD THE EAST OUT AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE
IS A VORT MAX SLIDING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE...FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE US A
DRY/WINDY DAY ON WED. UNTIL THEN...IT WILL PUSH THE BEST DYNAMICS OF
THE UPPER WAVE OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION DURING THE
DAYTIME HRS TODAY.

PLENTY OF CIRRUS AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS SLIDING OUT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SHOWERS. COUPLE THAT W/ SLOW-BUT STEADILY INCREASING SFC
DEWPOINTS AND OUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO DROP THRU THE 50S
OVERNIGHT...W/ ONLY A FEW LOCALES REACHING THE U40S. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THE MRNG HRS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
GATHER AND BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE APLCNS IN THE
COUPLE OF HRS AFTER SUNRISE.

A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE LEE SIDE OF THE RANGE WILL LIKELY
KICK-OFF THE INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THIS
MRNG...SPREADING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE LATE
MRNG AND EARLY AFTN HRS. TEMPS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL RISE
STEADILY BACK INTO THE 60S AND L70S AS WARMER SLY WINDS PICK UP INTO
THE 10-15MPH RANGE...ADDING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AS WELL. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL W/ THIS WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL...W/ ONLY EMBEDDED AREAS OF
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

NOW THAT WE`RE WITHIN RANGE OF SOME MOST NEAR-TERM CONVECTIVE TYPE
LOCAL MODELS...THE DAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP W/ MOST OF THE QPF
OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ONCE THE INITIAL AND
MORE SOLID WAVE OF SHOWERS MOVES THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE
MID-AFTN...CONDITIONS DRY OUT FAIRLY WELL TO THE WEST - EXCEPT FOR A
POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE AREA. STILL NOT A SOLID CONSENSUS THOUGH ON THIS
SOLUTION OR JUST ONE WAVE OF PRECIP AND DRY BEHIND IT.
REGARDLESS...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A DRY
ADIABATIC SLOPE TO HELP CONVECTION INITIATE GIVEN A FORCING
MECHANISM...SO THE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
CARRY OVER INTO THE EVE HRS ACROSS THE REGION - UNTIL THE SUBSIDENCE
REGION ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

AS THE VORT MAX FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEARS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE GUSTIER PARTS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET
MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC AND NW WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA W/
GUSTS IN THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HRS. DEWPOINTS
WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...W/ LOWER WIND CHILLS FROM THE GUSTY AND DRY
NW WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE UPPER 60S IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT. A DEEP MIXING LAYER AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CAUSE NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST FREQUENTLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. MIN TEMPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 30 IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILD CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A COUPLE
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE MASON-DIXON LINE...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY SINCE
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER CIRRUS WILL ACCUMULATE THRU 12Z...THEN MORE MID CLOUD DECKS
THRU MID MRNG. A WAVE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SWEEP THRU THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN BUT CIGS SHOULD STAY IN AT LEAST THE
LOW-END VFR RANGE W/ HARDLY ANY VSBYS RESTRICTIONS EXCEPT FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HEAVIER BATCHES. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTN WHEN A COLD FRONT SLIDES THRU AND TURNS WINDS BACK
TO THE NW AND HIGHER GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE APPEAR FOR THE LATE
EVE/OVERNIGHT HRS. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL
STAY BREEZY INTO WED MRNG.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS FRIDAY...LIKELY
TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING
THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY...BUT MOST PLACES WILL END UP DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HRS...W/ SOME MINOR
CHANNELING BUT SUB-SCA UNTIL THIS AFTN. SHOWERS WILL CARRY ISOLATED
HIGHER WIND GUSTS THIS AFTN/EVE...THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS EVE. A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...SO THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER LOCALIZED WINDS EXISTS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU
LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING MORE WIDESPREAD AND NW WINDS OVER THE
WATERS FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...WELL INTO SCA RANGE.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
ALSO BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY...LIKELY TRIGGERING
A FEW SHOWERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS SATURDAY
BEFORE PASSING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS LOW THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS
AROUND TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. A DEEP
MIXING LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN...CAUSING LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS...LOW FUEL MOISTURE AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL COORDINATE WITH STATE
CONTACTS ABOUT FUEL MOISTURE TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
NECESSARY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS CAUSED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO BEA AROUND ONE-HALF
FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL NORM. THE TIDAL ANOMALIES SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST OF SOUTH. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BLOWOUT TIDES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS
FIRE WEATHER...BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BJL









000
FXUS61 KLWX 220051
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
851 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HI PRES WHICH GAVE THE AREA A BEAUTIFUL DAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. LOW
PRES IS SITUATED OVER SWRN ONTARIO W/ AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FM MI TO TX. FCST MIN TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...ALTHOUGH SHELTERED/RURAL LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CITIES MAY DIP NEAR 40F.

12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS BUT THE GENERAL THINKING STILL IS FROPA
OCCURS DURING THE AFTN WEST OF I-95. THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT REACH
THE CHSPK BAY UNTIL THE EVE. MODEST WAA PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHEST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE POST-FRONTAL CAA ARRIVES AFTER MAX HEATING AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN IN THE
MTS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MTS TO NEAR 80F IN THE
CITIES AND IN CENTRAL VA. ADDED MORE DETAIL TO THE EXPECTED TIMING
OF PRECIP WITH POPS INCREASED TO LIKELY FOR A 2-4 HR PERIOD DURING
AND JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS GUIDANCE
CONSISTENT OF KEEPING THE BEST LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE
THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND INSTABILITY STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NGT WHILE HIPRES BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH TUE NGT
AND WED. DESPITE THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...FCST MIN TEMPS TUE NGT
WEIGHTED TOWARD WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AS BOUNDARY LAYER
STAYS WELL MIXED. SUB-ZERO H8 TEMPS FCST BY 12Z GUIDANCE. TEMPS WILL
BE MODERATED BY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ON WED. MAX TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO MID 60S IN CENTRAL
VA AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS
FRONT IS MORE OF A PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS...WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE LAGGING UNTIL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THE SECOND BOUNDARY...AND THAT PRECLUDES HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA AT THE MOMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR TNGT WITH LGT SLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z TUE THRU 00Z WED. SHRA LIKELY WITH FROPA.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CHANCES FOR TSRA TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 30-HR
TAF SITES THIS FAR OUT. NW WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BECOME
GUSTY TUE NGT AND WED AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. GUSTS TO 30
KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER A FEW HRS OF DAYTIME MIXING ON WED.

NW WINDS DIMINISH WED NGT AND THU WITH HIPRES BUILDING OVERHEAD.

MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHERLY WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE SUB-VFR/SHOWERS FRIDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR
WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TNGT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SLY
FETCH WILL FAVOR CHANNELING IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE BAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO
FROPA ON TUE AFTN. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES OF THE CHSPK BAY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS TUE AFTN AND ERY EVE WITH FROPA. A
GOOD PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW
WINDS TUE NGT. SCA ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TUE NGT AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED.

THE CENTER OF HIPRES BUILDS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WATERS FOR WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LVLS WED EVE.
SCA MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THOUGH IN SERN ZONES.

SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT REGIME TO END THE WEEK. WINDS COULD HIT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME BEHIND A FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

CBOFS GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOMALIES INCREASING TO ABOUT ONE FOOT
BY TUE MRNG. THIS WOULD KEEP TIDAL LEVELS ABOUT ONE-QUARTER FOOT
BELOW COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD AT ANNAPOLIS AND GREATER THAN ONE-
HALF FOOT BELOW COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD AT BALTIMORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530-531-535>539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-540-541-543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...JRK/HAS/DFH









000
FXUS61 KLWX 211859
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
259 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE NC COAST YDA
HAS SLOWLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOPRES IS LOCATED OVER SWRN ONTARIO WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW-WD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NRN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN BOTH
LOWS...THE AXIS OF A WEAK SFC RIDGE IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD THIS AFTN. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS
PROVIDED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THE ULVL RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSING DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVE. MEANWHILE...SFC LOPRES WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE NRN GREAT LAKES TNGT WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES
EWD AND REACHES THE OH VLY LATE TNGT. RISING DEWPOINTS IN RESPONSE
TO LGT SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE CONCERNS OF ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE. FCST MIN
TEMPS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...ALTHOUGH
SHELTERED/RURAL LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITIES MAY DIP NEAR
40F.

12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT COMPARED TO PRIOR RUNS BUT THE GENERAL THINKING STILL IS FROPA
OCCURS DURING THE AFTN WEST OF I-95. THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT REACH
THE CHSPK BAY UNTIL THE EVE. MODEST WAA PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FCST MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHEST EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE POST-FRONTAL CAA ARRIVES AFTER MAX HEATING AND
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN IN THE
MTS. HIGHS TUE RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MTS TO NEAR 80F IN THE
CITIES AND IN CENTRAL VA. ADDED MORE DETAIL TO THE EXPECTED TIMING
OF PRECIP WITH POPS INCREASED TO LIKELY FOR A 2-4 HR PERIOD DURING
AND JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER AS GUIDANCE
CONSISTENT OF KEEPING THE BEST LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHILE
THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND INSTABILITY STAYS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TUE NGT WHILE HIPRES BUILDS
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH TUE NGT
AND WED. DESPITE THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...FCST MIN TEMPS TUE NGT
WEIGHTED TOWARD WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MET GUIDANCE AS BOUNDARY LAYER
STAYS WELL MIXED. SUB-ZERO H8 TEMPS FCST BY 12Z GUIDANCE. THIS COLD
AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATED BY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FLOW ON
WED. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE 40S ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT TO MID
60S IN CENTRAL VA AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP RIDGE AXIS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS
FRONT IS MORE OF A PRESSURE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS...WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE LAGGING UNTIL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH
THE SECOND BOUNDARY...AND THAT PRECLUDES HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR
MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA AT THE MOMENT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIPRES...VFR THIS AFTN AND TNGT WITH LGT SLY
WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z TUE THRU
00Z WED. SHRA LIKELY WITH FROPA. FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CHANCES FOR TSRA
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN 30-HR TAF SITES THIS FAR OUT. NW WINDS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BECOME GUSTY TUE NGT AND WED AS HIPRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER A
FEW HRS OF DAYTIME MIXING ON WED.

NW WINDS DIMINISH WED NGT AND THU WITH HIPRES BUILDING OVERHEAD.

MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHERLY WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE SUB-VFR/SHOWERS FRIDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR
WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE MID CHSPK BAY THIS AFTN WITH LGT ELY
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WLY WINDS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD TANGIER ISLAND
AND SMITH POINT.

SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TNGT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SLY
FETCH WILL FAVOR CHANNELING IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE BAY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO
FROPA ON TUE AFTN. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THESE ZONES OF THE CHSPK BAY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS TUE AFTN AND ERY EVE WITH FROPA. A
GOOD PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NW
WINDS TUE NGT. SCA ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES TUE NGT AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED.

THE CENTER OF HIPRES BUILDS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WATERS FOR WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE MARINE ZONES TO SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LVLS WED EVE.
SCA MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED THOUGH IN SERN ZONES.

SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT REGIME TO END THE WEEK. WINDS COULD HIT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME BEHIND A FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LGT SELY TNGT AND TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES HAVE DEVELOPED TDA ALONG THE WRN SHORE OF THE MD
CHSPK BAY AS A RESULT OF LGT ONSHORE FLOW AND ARE CURRENTLY ALMOST
ONE-HALF FOOT. LATEST CBOFS GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOMALIES
INCREASING TO ABOUT ONE FOOT BY TUE MRNG. THIS WOULD KEEP TIDAL
LEVELS ABOUT ONE-QUARTER FOOT BELOW COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS AND GREATER THAN ONE- HALF FOOT BELOW COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLD AT BALTIMORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ530-531-535>539-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ532>534-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...JRK/DFH
MARINE...JRK/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK









000
FXUS61 KLWX 211320
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
920 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HIPRES HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS MRNG WHILE SFC RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
EXTEND SW-WD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. THE CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE NC
COAST YDA HAS DRIFTED FARTHER OFFSHORE TDA...ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD UPSTREAM OF THE LOW AND OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE
RESULTANT PATTERN WILL YIELD SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. EVEN
WITH A RELATIVELY COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL RISE SHARPLY
THIS MRNG AS THE STRONG BUT SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT.
THE 12Z IAD RAOB SOUNDING SUPPORTS RAISING MAX TEMP FCST BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS TDA IN THE 70S. THERE WILL BE
A ELY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE
CHSPK BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC COOLER AS WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE
MID 50S.

HI CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT. SFC LOPRES WILL
STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TNGT. ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TNGT. THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CURB RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND MITIGATE CONCERNS OF FROST/FREEZE. FCST MIN TEMPS ARE IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...DESPITE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.

THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH
THE FRONT TO COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY...CAUSING SOME SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED
DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TUESDAY EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MARYLAND WILL END DURING THIS TIME.
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OF THE COAST FRIDAY.

A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY. CHILLIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR TDA AND TNGT. ELY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME SELY THIS AFTN
AND SLY TNGT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LGT /BELOW 10 KT/.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED IN ANY CONVECTION. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL YIELD LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WATERS THRU
TNGT. NELY WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME ELY THIS AFTN AND SELY
TNGT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT DURING THIS TIME BUT A FEW
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE IN THE MAIN STEM OF THE CHSPK BAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LGT NE WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME ELY THIS AFTN AND SELY TNGT.
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MRNG ALONG THE WRN
SHORE OF THE MD CHSPK BAY AS A RESULT OF THIS ONSHORE FLOW AND ARE
CURRENTLY ALMOST ONE-HALF FOOT. LATEST CBOFS GUIDANCE INDICATES
ANOMALIES INCREASING TO ABOUT ONE FOOT BY TUE MRNG. THIS WOULD
KEEP TIDAL LEVELS ABOUT ONE-QUARTER FOOT BELOW COASTAL FLOOD
THRESHOLD AT ANNAPOLIS AND GREATER THAN ONE-HALF FOOT BELOW
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD AT BALTIMORE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK/BJL
NEAR TERM...JRK
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JRK/BJL
MARINE...JRK/BJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JRK









000
FXUS61 KLWX 211215
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
815 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TEMPS WILL RISE SHARPLY
THIS MRNG TO NEAR 60F BY MIDDAY AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES OUT.

PREV DISC...
A CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION. THE UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING OUT OVER THE SRN ATLC STATES IS STILL
THERE ATTM...BUT WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO SEA OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...A THIN CORRIDOR OF TIGHTER
PRES GRADIENT EXISTS AND TAPERS OFF OVER DELMARVA. WINDS ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR WERE STRONGER EARLIER AND CONTINUE TO BE DOWN ACROSS THE VA
TIDEWATER AND NC COAST...BUT HAVE LARGELY SUBSIDED UP ACROSS OUR
CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DROPPED INTO THE U30S...W/ ROOM FOR
A FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE AS DEWPOINTS HOVER IN THE L-M30S.

PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE VA/MD PIEDMONT
AND THE PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREAS SURROUNDING DC/BALT. THE FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FROM NERN MD DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
E OF THE BLUE RIDGE THRU 8AM.

AFTER THE RELATIVELY COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL AGAIN RISE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE COURSE OF THE MRNG AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. CLEAR SKIES WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS THE
SRN ATLC LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT TO SEA AND THE NEXT WX-MAKER SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM THIS
INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTN AS TEMPS REACH THE
U60S/L70S. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AS A WEAK IN-SITU SFC HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE TWO SURROUNDING SYSTEMS...
TURNING SLY OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH IS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MODERATE
TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE U40S/L50S - A GOOD 10-15F DEG WARMER
THAN TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...DESPITE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.

THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH
THE FRONT TO COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY...CAUSING SOME SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED
DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TUESDAY EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MARYLAND WILL END DURING THIS TIME.
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OF THE COAST FRIDAY.

A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY. CHILLIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS TODAY/TONIGHT. THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA AFTER BEING STATIONED OVER
THE SRN ATLC STATES FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOME FROST FORMATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS WINDS DROP OFF AND SO DO TEMPS -
HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE 30S THRU DAWN. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY TODAY...W/ CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD BUT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED IN ANY CONVECTION. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WATERS TODAY...THOUGH
STILL SOME 10-15KT BREEZES FROM THE MIDDLE-TO-LOWER PORTION OF THE
BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST-HALF OF
THE DAY...WHILE AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. WINDS WILL THEN DROP OFF LATER TONIGHT AND SWITCH TO A SLY
FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS/JRK
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS










000
FXUS61 KLWX 210752
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
352 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION. THE UPPER
LOW THAT HAS BEEN HANGING OUT OVER THE SRN ATLC STATES IS STILL
THERE ATTM...BUT WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO SEA OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...A THIN CORRIDOR OF TIGHTER
PRES GRADIENT EXISTS AND TAPERS OFF OVER DELMARVA. WINDS ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR WERE STRONGER EARLIER AND CONTINUE TO BE DOWN ACROSS THE VA
TIDEWATER AND NC COAST...BUT HAVE LARGELY SUBSIDED UP ACROSS OUR
CWA. TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DROPPED INTO THE U30S...W/ ROOM FOR
A FEW MORE DEGREES BY SUNRISE AS DEWPOINTS HOVER IN THE L-M30S.

PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE VA/MD PIEDMONT
AND THE PORTIONS OF THE METRO AREAS SURROUNDING DC/BALT. THE FROST
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FROM NERN MD DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
E OF THE BLUE RIDGE THRU 8AM.

AFTER THE RELATIVELY COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL AGAIN RISE
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 60S OVER THE COURSE OF THE MRNG AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTN. CLEAR SKIES WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS THE
SRN ATLC LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT TO SEA AND THE NEXT WX-MAKER SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SOME OF THE CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM THIS
INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTN AS TEMPS REACH THE
U60S/L70S. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AS A WEAK IN-SITU SFC HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN BETWEEN THE TWO SURROUNDING SYSTEMS...
TURNING SLY OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH IS PUSHED OFF THE COAST. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MODERATE
TEMPS TO ONLY DROP INTO THE U40S/L50S - A GOOD 10-15F DEG WARMER
THAN TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS...DESPITE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 IN THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.

THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR SOUTH. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH
THE FRONT TO COMBINE WITH THE INSTABILITY...CAUSING SOME SHOWERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED
DUE TO THE LOW INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS...AND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TUESDAY EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MARYLAND WILL END DURING THIS TIME.
A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S ALONG THE RIDGE
TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 50 IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WEDNESDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAUSING DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OF THE COAST FRIDAY.

A RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE WARMER CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY. CHILLIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS TODAY/TONIGHT. THE OFFSHORE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE
CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA AFTER BEING STATIONED OVER
THE SRN ATLC STATES FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOME FROST FORMATION
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...AS WINDS DROP OFF AND SO DO TEMPS -
HOVERING IN THE MIDDLE 30S THRU DAWN. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY TODAY...W/ CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD BUT
WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY BE REDUCED IN ANY CONVECTION. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE WATERS TODAY...THOUGH
STILL SOME 10-15KT BREEZES FROM THE MIDDLE-TO-LOWER PORTION OF THE
BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST-HALF OF
THE DAY...WHILE AN OFFSHORE UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. WINDS WILL THEN DROP OFF LATER TONIGHT AND SWITCH TO A SLY
FLOW AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007-
     009>011-013-014-016.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ042-050>057-
     501-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 210527 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
127 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...SCA EXPIRED. SEE MARINE SECTION.

AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED LTL SINCE TAFTN. IT REMAINS ALONG
THE SRN SHORE OF LONG ISLAND EWD ACRS ACK. ITS ALREADY EXPANDING
WWD INTO THE MID ATLC...AND IT/LL CONT TO DO SO OVNGT. ALOFT...A
RDG AXIS IS ALSO SETTING UP...WHICH WL AIDE IN COOLER/DRIER AIR
DRAINING SWWD. WHILE DEWPTS STILL IN THE LWR-MID 30S LCLLY...
WIDESPREAD MID-UPR 20S DEWPTS PRESENT ACRS NJ/ERN PA. THUS...PTTN
IN PLACE FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

HV MADE A FEW MORE TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPTS BASED ON LTST DATA. THE
PART OF THE CWFA WHICH SHUD SEE THE BEST RADL COOLING /BALT-WASH
CRRDR/ ALSO HAS THE HIEST DEWPTS AND BEST WIND GRADIENT CURRENTLY.
AM STILL A LTL WORRIED ABT LOUDOUN-MONTCO-HOWARD CNTYS...BUT TEMPS
HV FAR TO DROP AND DEWPTS NEED TO EDGE DOWN A LTL AS WELL. SUSPECT
INVOF HEF WL SEE SOME FROST...BUT DOUBT IT/LL BE A MAJORITY OF PW
CNTY. THEREFORE...DONT HV ENUF CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANYONE TO A
FROST ADVY ATTM. IF LWR DEWPTS DO INDEED DRAIN SWD AND TEMPS START
PLUMMETING...THEN THE ADVY MAY NEED TO BE XPNDD. OTRW...FCST LOOKS
REASONABLE.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKE STATES AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
MODELS KEEP SUNSHINE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF TOMORROW BEFORE HI
CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP BUT DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50/S TO UPPER 60/S...AND IT WILL FEEL MILDER WITH LESS WIND. MIN
TEMPS MON NGT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW TRACKS EWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
ON TUE. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OVER THE OH VLY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS BY ABOUT 18Z TUE BEFORE MOVING EWD THRU THE CWA
BETWEEN APPROX 18Z TUE AND 00Z WED. THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF CWA AND CLOSER TO TO SFC LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
PREVIOUS FCST HAD LIKELY POPS WITH FROPA. DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE
POPS FURTHER DUE TO THE LIMITED FORCING AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THUNDER A POSSIBILITY WITH TIMING OF FROPA COINCIDENT
WITH PEAK HEATING. WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE MRNG SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION. FCST MEAN MLCAPE VALUES FROM THE 09Z SREF ARE UNDER
500 J/KG FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AND MLCAPE PROBABILITIES AOA 500 J/KG
ARE LOW...JUST TWO INDICATIONS OF A VERY LIMITED TSTM POTENTIAL.
EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TUE NGT WHILE HIPRES
BUILDS IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY NW WINDS TUE NGT AND
CONTINUING INTO WED. 12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH TO MIX DOWN THE SFC ON WED. MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WED OWING TO THE CAA IN WAKE OF FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE REBOUNDING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TRACK EAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY. MARGINALLY SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AS
MAIN AREA PVA IS NORTH OF AREA. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A SECOND FRONT SUPPORTED BY STRONG PVA
ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR SKC-SCT250 THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS. E/SE WNDS
AOB 10 KT WL CONT TO DIMINISH OVNGT...AND WL REMAIN LGT MON AS
HIPRES OHD. IF THERE/S ANY WIND TMRW...ITLL HV AN ELY COMPONENT...
GRDLY BCMG SLY BY THE PM PUSH.

A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THRU THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND 00Z WED. SHRA LIKELY AND ISO TSRA DURING
THE AFTN WITH FROPA. BRIEF/LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
SHRA OR TSRA. SLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NWLY 10-15 KT FOLLOWING FROPA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ON
WED AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.

VFR WITH HIPRES OVERHEAD WED NGT THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
WATERS SANDWICHED BTWN HIPRES OVER FAR ERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOPRES
OFF THE CAROLINAS. STILL HV A FAIR AMT OF GRADIENT WND ACRS THE
MARINE AREA...BUT GNLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE GRADIENT WL BE
TIGHTEST FOR THE LWR PTMC AND SRNMOST TWO BAY ZONES. HV THRESHOLD
SCA CONDS THERE ATTM...AND THE P-GRAD SHUD BE THERE MOST OF TNGT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VRBL MON-MON NGT IN RESPONSE TO RDG AXIS.

SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GENERALLY 10 KT ON TUE. THERE IS A
LIMITED POTENTIAL HOWEVER FOR WINDS TO REACH SCA CRITERIA IN THE
MAIN STEM OF THE CHSPK BAY DUE TO SLY CHANNELING. CAPPED WINDS AT 15
KT IN THESE ZONES FOR NOW WITH SUCH A MARGINAL WIND FIELD. SHRA AND
POSSIBLY AN ISO TSTMS WITH THE FROPA LATE TUE AFTN AND EVE. NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME GUSTY AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
SCA LIKELY TUE NGT AND WED.

WINDS BELOW SCA LVLS BY WED NGT AS HIPRES BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ004>007.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...JRK/CEM/HTS









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