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000
FXUS61 KLWX 010113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE
REGION TUESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. LWX 00Z RAOB DEPICTS A DRY
AMS. DIURNAL CU HV DSPTD...LEAVING BHD A CLR SKY. FURTHER...WNDS
HV DCPLD. THIS MARKS A SETUP FOR GOOD RADL COOLING. HWVR...LOW
DEWPTS WL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR. HV CONFINED THREAT TO THE VLYS
OF THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL SHENANDOAH RIVER...AND HEADWATERS OF THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS.

BROAD SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE...AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND
AN INVERSION WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WHILE THE WEAKNESS
OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEAL THE DEAL FOR A DRY DAY DESPITE A FEW
PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE BUT
NOTHING UNUSUAL. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES A BIT IN THE
WAKE OF SATURDAY`S TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE OUTSKIRTS
OF THE METRO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH
ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM/LOW END HOT DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER THE
HIGH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NORMALLY THIS SETUP WOULD YIELD
CONVECTION...BUT MONDAY WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN QUESTION...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA COINCIDENT WITH SUPPLEMENTAL TERRAIN
FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS. ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT
HINTING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT EITHER ON TUESDAY SO
KEPT POPS VERY LOW /BUT STILL NON-ZERO/. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MEAN TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH HINTING AT A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN TIMING/PLACEMENT. IF THE WAVE
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND/OR OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WOULD
INCREASE BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD REMAIN LOW. IF THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A COME BACK LATE NEXT WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY BE SOME FOG
PATCHES PREDAWN SAT. ATTM HV KEPT THIS THREAT AWAY FM THE
TERMINALS. IF THAT DOESNT WORK OUT...CHO MOST AT RISK.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING LOW.

VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT RISK IS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY AT INLAND TERMINALS CHO AND MRB. ODDS FAVOR
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY FROM THE WEST.

VFR EXPECTED SUN-WED. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE AFT/EVE HRS DURING THIS TIME. NLY FLOW
AOB 10 KT BECOMES SLY AROUND 10 KT SUN...WITH GENERAL SWLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT MON-WED. WIND DIRECTION BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
TUE-WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO 10 KT ATTM...AND SHUD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE NGT.
THERE IS THE SLGT CHC OF A SHRA SAT AS A VERY WEAK CDFNT PASSES.
WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE BHD THE FNT. AIR TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER THAN
WATER TEMPS...SO SCA NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND STALLS MON-TUE...AND COULD RESULT IN SCA
GUSTS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE ARE AT THE FULL MOON IN THE LUNAR CYCLE...SO IT DOESNT TAKE
MUCH TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. WHILE THIS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A LETUP IN THE WINDS WILL PERMIT WATER LVLS TO
RISE ABV ASTRO NORMALS OVNGT INTO SAT MORNING. HIGHLY SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS /NAMELY ANNAPOLIS AND SW DC/ MAY EXCEED CAUTION STAGE
WITH THE SAT AM HIGH TIDE. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/RCM
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 010113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE
REGION TUESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. LWX 00Z RAOB DEPICTS A DRY
AMS. DIURNAL CU HV DSPTD...LEAVING BHD A CLR SKY. FURTHER...WNDS
HV DCPLD. THIS MARKS A SETUP FOR GOOD RADL COOLING. HWVR...LOW
DEWPTS WL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR. HV CONFINED THREAT TO THE VLYS
OF THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL SHENANDOAH RIVER...AND HEADWATERS OF THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS.

BROAD SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE...AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND
AN INVERSION WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WHILE THE WEAKNESS
OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEAL THE DEAL FOR A DRY DAY DESPITE A FEW
PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE BUT
NOTHING UNUSUAL. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES A BIT IN THE
WAKE OF SATURDAY`S TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE OUTSKIRTS
OF THE METRO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH
ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM/LOW END HOT DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER THE
HIGH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NORMALLY THIS SETUP WOULD YIELD
CONVECTION...BUT MONDAY WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN QUESTION...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA COINCIDENT WITH SUPPLEMENTAL TERRAIN
FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS. ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT
HINTING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT EITHER ON TUESDAY SO
KEPT POPS VERY LOW /BUT STILL NON-ZERO/. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MEAN TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH HINTING AT A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN TIMING/PLACEMENT. IF THE WAVE
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND/OR OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WOULD
INCREASE BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD REMAIN LOW. IF THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A COME BACK LATE NEXT WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY BE SOME FOG
PATCHES PREDAWN SAT. ATTM HV KEPT THIS THREAT AWAY FM THE
TERMINALS. IF THAT DOESNT WORK OUT...CHO MOST AT RISK.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING LOW.

VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT RISK IS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY AT INLAND TERMINALS CHO AND MRB. ODDS FAVOR
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY FROM THE WEST.

VFR EXPECTED SUN-WED. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE AFT/EVE HRS DURING THIS TIME. NLY FLOW
AOB 10 KT BECOMES SLY AROUND 10 KT SUN...WITH GENERAL SWLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT MON-WED. WIND DIRECTION BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
TUE-WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO 10 KT ATTM...AND SHUD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE NGT.
THERE IS THE SLGT CHC OF A SHRA SAT AS A VERY WEAK CDFNT PASSES.
WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE BHD THE FNT. AIR TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER THAN
WATER TEMPS...SO SCA NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND STALLS MON-TUE...AND COULD RESULT IN SCA
GUSTS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE ARE AT THE FULL MOON IN THE LUNAR CYCLE...SO IT DOESNT TAKE
MUCH TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. WHILE THIS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A LETUP IN THE WINDS WILL PERMIT WATER LVLS TO
RISE ABV ASTRO NORMALS OVNGT INTO SAT MORNING. HIGHLY SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS /NAMELY ANNAPOLIS AND SW DC/ MAY EXCEED CAUTION STAGE
WITH THE SAT AM HIGH TIDE. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/RCM
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 010113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE
REGION TUESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. LWX 00Z RAOB DEPICTS A DRY
AMS. DIURNAL CU HV DSPTD...LEAVING BHD A CLR SKY. FURTHER...WNDS
HV DCPLD. THIS MARKS A SETUP FOR GOOD RADL COOLING. HWVR...LOW
DEWPTS WL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR. HV CONFINED THREAT TO THE VLYS
OF THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL SHENANDOAH RIVER...AND HEADWATERS OF THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS.

BROAD SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE...AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND
AN INVERSION WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WHILE THE WEAKNESS
OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEAL THE DEAL FOR A DRY DAY DESPITE A FEW
PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE BUT
NOTHING UNUSUAL. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES A BIT IN THE
WAKE OF SATURDAY`S TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE OUTSKIRTS
OF THE METRO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH
ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM/LOW END HOT DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER THE
HIGH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NORMALLY THIS SETUP WOULD YIELD
CONVECTION...BUT MONDAY WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN QUESTION...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA COINCIDENT WITH SUPPLEMENTAL TERRAIN
FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS. ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT
HINTING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT EITHER ON TUESDAY SO
KEPT POPS VERY LOW /BUT STILL NON-ZERO/. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MEAN TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH HINTING AT A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN TIMING/PLACEMENT. IF THE WAVE
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND/OR OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WOULD
INCREASE BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD REMAIN LOW. IF THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A COME BACK LATE NEXT WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY BE SOME FOG
PATCHES PREDAWN SAT. ATTM HV KEPT THIS THREAT AWAY FM THE
TERMINALS. IF THAT DOESNT WORK OUT...CHO MOST AT RISK.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING LOW.

VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT RISK IS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY AT INLAND TERMINALS CHO AND MRB. ODDS FAVOR
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY FROM THE WEST.

VFR EXPECTED SUN-WED. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE AFT/EVE HRS DURING THIS TIME. NLY FLOW
AOB 10 KT BECOMES SLY AROUND 10 KT SUN...WITH GENERAL SWLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT MON-WED. WIND DIRECTION BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
TUE-WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO 10 KT ATTM...AND SHUD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE NGT.
THERE IS THE SLGT CHC OF A SHRA SAT AS A VERY WEAK CDFNT PASSES.
WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE BHD THE FNT. AIR TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER THAN
WATER TEMPS...SO SCA NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND STALLS MON-TUE...AND COULD RESULT IN SCA
GUSTS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE ARE AT THE FULL MOON IN THE LUNAR CYCLE...SO IT DOESNT TAKE
MUCH TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. WHILE THIS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A LETUP IN THE WINDS WILL PERMIT WATER LVLS TO
RISE ABV ASTRO NORMALS OVNGT INTO SAT MORNING. HIGHLY SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS /NAMELY ANNAPOLIS AND SW DC/ MAY EXCEED CAUTION STAGE
WITH THE SAT AM HIGH TIDE. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/RCM
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 010113
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
913 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE
REGION TUESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. LWX 00Z RAOB DEPICTS A DRY
AMS. DIURNAL CU HV DSPTD...LEAVING BHD A CLR SKY. FURTHER...WNDS
HV DCPLD. THIS MARKS A SETUP FOR GOOD RADL COOLING. HWVR...LOW
DEWPTS WL BE A MITIGATING FACTOR. HV CONFINED THREAT TO THE VLYS
OF THE PIEDMONT...CENTRAL SHENANDOAH RIVER...AND HEADWATERS OF THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS.

BROAD SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE...AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND
AN INVERSION WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WHILE THE WEAKNESS
OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEAL THE DEAL FOR A DRY DAY DESPITE A FEW
PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE BUT
NOTHING UNUSUAL. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES A BIT IN THE
WAKE OF SATURDAY`S TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE OUTSKIRTS
OF THE METRO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH
ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM/LOW END HOT DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER THE
HIGH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NORMALLY THIS SETUP WOULD YIELD
CONVECTION...BUT MONDAY WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN QUESTION...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA COINCIDENT WITH SUPPLEMENTAL TERRAIN
FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS. ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT
HINTING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT EITHER ON TUESDAY SO
KEPT POPS VERY LOW /BUT STILL NON-ZERO/. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MEAN TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH HINTING AT A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN TIMING/PLACEMENT. IF THE WAVE
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND/OR OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WOULD
INCREASE BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD REMAIN LOW. IF THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A COME BACK LATE NEXT WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY BE SOME FOG
PATCHES PREDAWN SAT. ATTM HV KEPT THIS THREAT AWAY FM THE
TERMINALS. IF THAT DOESNT WORK OUT...CHO MOST AT RISK.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING LOW.

VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT RISK IS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALSO POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VIS AGAIN LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY AT INLAND TERMINALS CHO AND MRB. ODDS FAVOR
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER TONIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY FROM THE WEST.

VFR EXPECTED SUN-WED. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE AFT/EVE HRS DURING THIS TIME. NLY FLOW
AOB 10 KT BECOMES SLY AROUND 10 KT SUN...WITH GENERAL SWLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT MON-WED. WIND DIRECTION BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
TUE-WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS BLO 10 KT ATTM...AND SHUD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE NGT.
THERE IS THE SLGT CHC OF A SHRA SAT AS A VERY WEAK CDFNT PASSES.
WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE BHD THE FNT. AIR TEMPS SHUD BE WARMER THAN
WATER TEMPS...SO SCA NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND STALLS MON-TUE...AND COULD RESULT IN SCA
GUSTS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE ARE AT THE FULL MOON IN THE LUNAR CYCLE...SO IT DOESNT TAKE
MUCH TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. WHILE THIS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...A LETUP IN THE WINDS WILL PERMIT WATER LVLS TO
RISE ABV ASTRO NORMALS OVNGT INTO SAT MORNING. HIGHLY SENSITIVE
LOCATIONS /NAMELY ANNAPOLIS AND SW DC/ MAY EXCEED CAUTION STAGE
WITH THE SAT AM HIGH TIDE. WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...HTS/RCM
SHORT TERM...DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...HTS/RCM/DFH
MARINE...HTS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311851
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE
REGION TUESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL TO
THE WEST HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR REGION. WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS OF WEST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS TEMPS COOL TO
THE DEW POINT. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.

BROAD SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE...AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND
AN INVERSION WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WHILE THE WEAKNESS
OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEAL THE DEAL FOR A DRY DAY DESPITE A FEW
PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE BUT
NOTHING UNUSUAL. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES A BIT IN THE
WAKE OF SATURDAY`S TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE OUTSKIRTS
OF THE METRO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH
ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM/LOW END HOT DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER THE
HIGH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NORMALLY THIS SETUP WOULD YIELD
CONVECTION...BUT MONDAY WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN QUESTION...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA COINCIDENT WITH SUPPLEMENTAL TERRAIN
FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS. ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT
HINTING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT EITHER ON TUESDAY SO
KEPT POPS VERY LOW /BUT STILL NON-ZERO/. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MEAN TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH HINTING AT A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN TIMING/PLACEMENT. IF THE WAVE
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND/OR OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WOULD
INCREASE BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD REMAIN LOW. IF THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A COME BACK LATE NEXT WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT RISK IS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VIS LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY AT INLAND TERMINALS CHO AND MRB. RIGHT
NOW ODDS FAVOR SATURDAY NIGHT OVER TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT OUT OF
TAFS. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY FROM THE WEST.

VFR EXPECTED SUN-WED. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE AFT/EVE HRS DURING THIS TIME. NLY FLOW
AOB 10 KT BECOMES SLY AROUND 10 KT SUN...WITH GENERAL SWLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT MON-WED. WIND DIRECTION BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
TUE-WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES. OF MORE PRESSING CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH
LOW END SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS VERY BORDERLINE GIVEN
THAT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE WATER TEMPS WHICH SHOULD
CREATE A LITTLE STABILITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE NOT
PULLED THE TRIGGER. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW MAY OVERWHELM THE
LIMITED SURFACE STABILITY HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND STALLS MON-TUE...AND COULD RESULT IN SCA
GUSTS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311851
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND THEN STALL IN THE
REGION TUESDAY. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS NOW IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WELL TO
THE WEST HOWEVER...WITH A FAIRLY FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR REGION. WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE
MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS OF WEST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS TEMPS COOL TO
THE DEW POINT. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.

BROAD SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE...AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND
AN INVERSION WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...WHILE THE WEAKNESS
OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SEAL THE DEAL FOR A DRY DAY DESPITE A FEW
PIECES OF GUIDANCE TO THE CONTRARY. WINDS MAY PICK UP A LITTLE BUT
NOTHING UNUSUAL. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT RELAXES A BIT IN THE
WAKE OF SATURDAY`S TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE OVERHEAD LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...ANOTHER NIGHT OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN MORE PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE OUTSKIRTS
OF THE METRO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOL...WITH
ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM/LOW END HOT DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY UNDER THE
HIGH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

A 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. NORMALLY THIS SETUP WOULD YIELD
CONVECTION...BUT MONDAY WILL ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY OF APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WITH
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN QUESTION...INSTABILITY MAY REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW KEPT ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED POPS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA COINCIDENT WITH SUPPLEMENTAL TERRAIN
FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS. ANOTHER LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER. MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT
HINTING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT EITHER ON TUESDAY SO
KEPT POPS VERY LOW /BUT STILL NON-ZERO/. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MEAN TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH HINTING AT A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD ENHANCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN TIMING/PLACEMENT. IF THE WAVE
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND/OR OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WOULD
INCREASE BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD REMAIN LOW. IF THE LOW
PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO MAKE A COME BACK LATE NEXT WEEK
BRINGING DRIER AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CIGS AND VIS OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT RISK IS BELOW 15 PERCENT. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VIS LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY AT INLAND TERMINALS CHO AND MRB. RIGHT
NOW ODDS FAVOR SATURDAY NIGHT OVER TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT OUT OF
TAFS. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY FROM THE WEST.

VFR EXPECTED SUN-WED. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED
AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE AFT/EVE HRS DURING THIS TIME. NLY FLOW
AOB 10 KT BECOMES SLY AROUND 10 KT SUN...WITH GENERAL SWLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KT MON-WED. WIND DIRECTION BECOMES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
TUE-WED AND DEPENDS ON POSITIONING OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THERE IS
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SATURDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES. OF MORE PRESSING CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REACH
LOW END SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS VERY BORDERLINE GIVEN
THAT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE THE WATER TEMPS WHICH SHOULD
CREATE A LITTLE STABILITY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE NOT
PULLED THE TRIGGER. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW MAY OVERWHELM THE
LIMITED SURFACE STABILITY HOWEVER.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA AND STALLS MON-TUE...AND COULD RESULT IN SCA
GUSTS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...RCM/DFH
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...RCM/DFH
MARINE...RCM/DFH





000
FXUS61 KLWX 311405
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1005 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SAGS TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS INVADED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE
COLD FRONT NOW FIRMLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE DEWPOINT DROP IS
THE MAIN SIGNAL...DROPPING 10-15 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO.

WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...A DRY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING
BEHIND AN IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT SINCE THE DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE HEATING. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
INLAND LOCALES AS TEMPS SLIDE DOWN TOWARDS THE DEW POINT.

A VERY WEAK REINFORCING IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO TIME FOR RETURN
FLOW...SO THE FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRIED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS...BUT THE LATEST WE HAVE AVAILABLE IS PRETTY
DRY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...THE CHANCES SEEM
TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP IT
DRY BUT WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. GREAT
WEEKEND FOR A MOUNTAIN GETAWAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. MORE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT IS AUGUST AFTER
ALL AND NIGHTS ARE STARTING TO LENGTHEN NOTICEABLY. A DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY DOWN DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT
WILL TURN OUT TO BE A HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HOT CONDITIONS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE DOWN A
BIT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...MORE HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS TIME...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO LESS OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG INLAND (CHO/MRB) POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THATS THE ONLY CONCERN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ASIDE
FROM PATCHY FOG RISK DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE ISOLATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A PUSH OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA. FOR NOW...CAPPED THE
FORECAST AT 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CAUSING WIND GUSTS AROUND SCA CRITERIA. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...JCE/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JCE/BJL/RCM
MARINE...JCE/BJL/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311405
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1005 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SAGS TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS INVADED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE
COLD FRONT NOW FIRMLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE DEWPOINT DROP IS
THE MAIN SIGNAL...DROPPING 10-15 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO.

WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...A DRY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING
BEHIND AN IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT SINCE THE DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE HEATING. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
INLAND LOCALES AS TEMPS SLIDE DOWN TOWARDS THE DEW POINT.

A VERY WEAK REINFORCING IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO TIME FOR RETURN
FLOW...SO THE FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRIED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS...BUT THE LATEST WE HAVE AVAILABLE IS PRETTY
DRY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...THE CHANCES SEEM
TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP IT
DRY BUT WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. GREAT
WEEKEND FOR A MOUNTAIN GETAWAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. MORE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT IS AUGUST AFTER
ALL AND NIGHTS ARE STARTING TO LENGTHEN NOTICEABLY. A DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY DOWN DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT
WILL TURN OUT TO BE A HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HOT CONDITIONS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE DOWN A
BIT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...MORE HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS TIME...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO LESS OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG INLAND (CHO/MRB) POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THATS THE ONLY CONCERN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ASIDE
FROM PATCHY FOG RISK DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE ISOLATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A PUSH OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA. FOR NOW...CAPPED THE
FORECAST AT 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CAUSING WIND GUSTS AROUND SCA CRITERIA. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...JCE/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JCE/BJL/RCM
MARINE...JCE/BJL/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 311405
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1005 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SAGS TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS INVADED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE
COLD FRONT NOW FIRMLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE DEWPOINT DROP IS
THE MAIN SIGNAL...DROPPING 10-15 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO.

WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...A DRY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING
BEHIND AN IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT SINCE THE DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE HEATING. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
INLAND LOCALES AS TEMPS SLIDE DOWN TOWARDS THE DEW POINT.

A VERY WEAK REINFORCING IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO TIME FOR RETURN
FLOW...SO THE FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRIED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS...BUT THE LATEST WE HAVE AVAILABLE IS PRETTY
DRY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...THE CHANCES SEEM
TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP IT
DRY BUT WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. GREAT
WEEKEND FOR A MOUNTAIN GETAWAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. MORE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT IS AUGUST AFTER
ALL AND NIGHTS ARE STARTING TO LENGTHEN NOTICEABLY. A DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY DOWN DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT
WILL TURN OUT TO BE A HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HOT CONDITIONS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE DOWN A
BIT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...MORE HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS TIME...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO LESS OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG INLAND (CHO/MRB) POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THATS THE ONLY CONCERN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ASIDE
FROM PATCHY FOG RISK DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE ISOLATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A PUSH OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA. FOR NOW...CAPPED THE
FORECAST AT 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CAUSING WIND GUSTS AROUND SCA CRITERIA. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...JCE/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JCE/BJL/RCM
MARINE...JCE/BJL/RCM




000
FXUS61 KLWX 311405
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1005 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SAGS TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR HAS INVADED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE
COLD FRONT NOW FIRMLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE DEWPOINT DROP IS
THE MAIN SIGNAL...DROPPING 10-15 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO.

WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...A DRY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING
BEHIND AN IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT SINCE THE DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE HEATING. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICAL
INLAND LOCALES AS TEMPS SLIDE DOWN TOWARDS THE DEW POINT.

A VERY WEAK REINFORCING IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO TIME FOR RETURN
FLOW...SO THE FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRIED
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS...BUT THE LATEST WE HAVE AVAILABLE IS PRETTY
DRY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO...THE CHANCES SEEM
TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP IT
DRY BUT WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. GREAT
WEEKEND FOR A MOUNTAIN GETAWAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. MORE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...IT IS AUGUST AFTER
ALL AND NIGHTS ARE STARTING TO LENGTHEN NOTICEABLY. A DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY DOWN DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT
WILL TURN OUT TO BE A HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HOT CONDITIONS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE DOWN A
BIT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...MORE HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS TIME...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO LESS OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG INLAND (CHO/MRB) POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THATS THE ONLY CONCERN.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ASIDE
FROM PATCHY FOG RISK DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...BUT MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL
BE ISOLATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A PUSH OF
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA. FOR NOW...CAPPED THE
FORECAST AT 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CAUSING WIND GUSTS AROUND SCA CRITERIA. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...JCE/RCM
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JCE/BJL/RCM
MARINE...JCE/BJL/RCM





000
FXUS61 KLWX 310720
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SAGS TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY SEEPING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DEWPOINT DROP IS THE MAIN SIGNAL...DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...A DRY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING
BEHIND AN IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT SINCE THE DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE HEATING. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

A REINFORCING IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO TIME FOR RETURN FLOW...SO THE
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. WORTH NOTHING THAT OUR LOCAL WRF-
NMM...AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM...DEVELOP SOME SHRA IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE I CANNOT RULE THAT OUT...THE
CHANCES SEEM TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
KEEP IT DRY BUT WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
GREAT WEEKEND FOR A MOUNTAIN GETAWAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY DOWN DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL TURN
OUT TO BE A HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HOT CONDITIONS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE DOWN A
BIT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...MORE HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS TIME...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO LESS OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHO HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND IN LOWER CIGS/VSBY IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN...THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA. FOR NOW...CAPPED THE FORECAST
AT 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CAUSING WIND GUSTS AROUND SCA CRITERIA. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JCE
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JCE/BJL
MARINE...JCE/BJL





000
FXUS61 KLWX 310720
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SAGS TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY SEEPING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DEWPOINT DROP IS THE MAIN SIGNAL...DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...A DRY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING
BEHIND AN IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT SINCE THE DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE HEATING. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

A REINFORCING IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO TIME FOR RETURN FLOW...SO THE
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. WORTH NOTHING THAT OUR LOCAL WRF-
NMM...AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM...DEVELOP SOME SHRA IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE I CANNOT RULE THAT OUT...THE
CHANCES SEEM TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
KEEP IT DRY BUT WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
GREAT WEEKEND FOR A MOUNTAIN GETAWAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY DOWN DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL TURN
OUT TO BE A HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HOT CONDITIONS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE DOWN A
BIT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...MORE HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS TIME...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO LESS OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHO HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND IN LOWER CIGS/VSBY IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN...THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA. FOR NOW...CAPPED THE FORECAST
AT 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CAUSING WIND GUSTS AROUND SCA CRITERIA. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JCE
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JCE/BJL
MARINE...JCE/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 310720
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SAGS TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY SEEPING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DEWPOINT DROP IS THE MAIN SIGNAL...DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...A DRY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING
BEHIND AN IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT SINCE THE DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE HEATING. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

A REINFORCING IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO TIME FOR RETURN FLOW...SO THE
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. WORTH NOTHING THAT OUR LOCAL WRF-
NMM...AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM...DEVELOP SOME SHRA IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE I CANNOT RULE THAT OUT...THE
CHANCES SEEM TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
KEEP IT DRY BUT WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
GREAT WEEKEND FOR A MOUNTAIN GETAWAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY DOWN DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL TURN
OUT TO BE A HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HOT CONDITIONS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE DOWN A
BIT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...MORE HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS TIME...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO LESS OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHO HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND IN LOWER CIGS/VSBY IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN...THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA. FOR NOW...CAPPED THE FORECAST
AT 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CAUSING WIND GUSTS AROUND SCA CRITERIA. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JCE
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JCE/BJL
MARINE...JCE/BJL





000
FXUS61 KLWX 310720
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
320 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SAGS TO OUR SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY SEEPING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DEWPOINT DROP IS THE MAIN SIGNAL...DROPPING
AROUND 10 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT.

WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...A DRY DAY IS ON TAP TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY DESPITE BEING
BEHIND AN IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT SINCE THE DRIER AIR AND WESTERLY
WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE HEATING. CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE ELSE.

A REINFORCING IN-NAME-ONLY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS SIMPLY NO TIME FOR RETURN FLOW...SO THE
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. WORTH NOTHING THAT OUR LOCAL WRF-
NMM...AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM...DEVELOP SOME SHRA IN THE VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE I CANNOT RULE THAT OUT...THE
CHANCES SEEM TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
KEEP IT DRY BUT WARM WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
GREAT WEEKEND FOR A MOUNTAIN GETAWAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY DOWN DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL TURN
OUT TO BE A HOT AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HOT CONDITIONS...BUT HUMIDITY MAY BE DOWN A
BIT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S AND 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...MORE HOT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS TIME...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN THE HUMIDITY WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO LESS OF A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHEN THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHO HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND IN LOWER CIGS/VSBY IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN...THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE
MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A PUSH OF SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA. FOR NOW...CAPPED THE FORECAST
AT 15 KTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CHANNEL UP
THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...CAUSING WIND GUSTS AROUND SCA CRITERIA. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...JCE
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...BJL
AVIATION...JCE/BJL
MARINE...JCE/BJL




000
FXUS61 KLWX 310035
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
835 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO START THE WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT NEAR THE BLURDG ATTM...MARKED BY A DROP IN DEWPTS MORE THAN
TEMPS /MID 70S BALT-DC CRRDR VS MID-UPR 50S MRB-HGR-CBE AS OF 00Z/.
STILL A LTL BIT OF INSTBY IN ADVC OF FNT...AS NOTED BY RECURRING
SHRA/TSRA IN CENTRAL VA. HWVR...RECENT HRRR RUNS TAKE THIS ACTIVITY
ESEWD...WHICH MEANS IT/LL BE SE OF CWFA BY 02Z. HV MADE FCST DRY
FOR THE REST OF THE NGT.

SINCE DEWPTS WL BE SLOW TO DROP ACRS CENTRAL VA AND GRND WET FM
LATE DAY RAFL...HV ENTERTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA FOR THE
OVNGT HRS-- PRIMARILY FOUND IN SHELTERED VLYS. ELSW...THE SLOW
DROP IN DEWPTS...NOT TO MENTION A LGT /BLO 10 KT/ NWLY FLOW THRU
THE NGT...WL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAMP...
WHICH IS QUITE CLOSE TO CLIMO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI...KEEPING THE AREA DRY THEN THRU FRI
NIGHT. PLENTY OF WARMING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING
FROM WLY FLOW ON FRI COULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S...TOUCHING
90 IN THE DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWER
DEW PTS...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH AND ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BY SAT MORNING.
12 MODEL SUITE NOW SUGGESTING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
SOMETIME LATE SAT. HOWEVER...ANY UPPER LVL FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LOOKS TO STILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.0 INCHES...EXPECTING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
WIND SHIFT. HAVE KEPT THE LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR JUST THE FAR
WEST AREAS IN CASE OF TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE GONE BY SAT EVENING.

THE HIGH PUSHES EAST SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
QUIET WX TO THE AREA. HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATE MON
INTO TUE SWLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A CDFNT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AND STALLS AROUND OUR AREA THROUGH THU... BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL NEAR
NORMAL SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TSTMS HV PUSHED E OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDS SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS ALREADY NW AT MRB...AND SHUD VEER TO THE NW ELSW
BTWN 02-04Z AS A COLD FRONT MVS THRU. WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU
FRI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF TSRA...WNDS WERE NOT REACHING SCA CRITERIA...SO HV
DROPPED ADVY FOR ALL WATERS. STORMS HV MOSTLY CLEARED THE WATERS
AS WELL...ALTHO RECENT RECURRENT ACTIVITY INVOF EZF SUGGESTS SCTD
SHRA/TSRA STILL PSBL LWR PTMC/MID BAY TIL MIDNGT OR SO.

SLY FLOW WL BECOME NWLY NEAR/AFTR MIDNGT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
INCR IN WSPD BHD FNT TIL ABT DAWN...BUT BASED ON MDL SNDGS DO NOT
BELIEVE THESE WINDS WL EXCEED SCA CRITERIA. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 15
KT...MAINLY IN GUSTS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF FRI...
THRU THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 301906
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO START THE WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CECIL COUNTY
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL VA AS OF 1830Z REFLECTIVITY. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SBCAPE ANYWHERE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AFTR A DAY OF TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND DEW
PTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. EXPECTING THIS LINE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THOUGH WITH LACK OF
SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ANY FURTHER SVR WX LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV AND
WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE
FRONT...ESP OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTH AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO BE
TAPPED. THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE 21-02Z.

THE FRONT THEN PUSHES THRU...WITH CLEARING IN THE WAKE. TEMPS
MILDLY DECREASE...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING MORE NOTICABLE IN
THE DEW PTS AS THEY DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...KEEPING THE AREA DRY THEN THRU FRI NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT NEAR NORMAL. PLENTY OF WARMING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FROM WLY FLOW ON FRI COULD PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 80S...TOUCHING 90 IN THE DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWER DEW PTS...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH AND ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BY SAT MORNING.
12 MODEL SUITE NOW SUGGESTING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
SOMETIME LATE SAT. HOWEVER...ANY UPPER LVL FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LOOKS TO STILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.0 INCHES...EXPECTING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
WIND SHIFT. HAVE KEPT THE LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR JUST THE FAR
WEST AREAS IN CASE OF TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE GONE BY SAT EVENING.

THE HIGH PUSHES EAST SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
QUIET WX TO THE AREA. HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATE MON
INTO TUE SWLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A CDFNT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AND STALLS AROUND OUR AREA THROUGH THU... BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL NEAR
NORMAL SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. TSTMS WILL MOVE THRU
THE TAF SITES EAST OF I-95 THRU 21Z. THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN
GUSTY...VRB WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD REDUCE VIS TO IFR.
SLY WINDS LATE THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING TO THE NW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MVG THRU. WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THE SCA CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING. SLY FLOW WILL
BECOME NWLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PSBL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU FRI.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301906
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO START THE WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CECIL COUNTY
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL VA AS OF 1830Z REFLECTIVITY. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING SBCAPE ANYWHERE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE AFTR A DAY OF TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND DEW
PTS HOVERING IN THE MID 70S. EXPECTING THIS LINE TO HOLD TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THOUGH WITH LACK OF
SHEAR AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ANY FURTHER SVR WX LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN VA/EASTERN WV AND
WILL SWING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS
SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN WILL BE PSBL ALONG THE
FRONT...ESP OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTH AS THIS AREA HAS YET TO BE
TAPPED. THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS LOOKS TO BE 21-02Z.

THE FRONT THEN PUSHES THRU...WITH CLEARING IN THE WAKE. TEMPS
MILDLY DECREASE...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING MORE NOTICABLE IN
THE DEW PTS AS THEY DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...KEEPING THE AREA DRY THEN THRU FRI NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT NEAR NORMAL. PLENTY OF WARMING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING FROM WLY FLOW ON FRI COULD PUSH TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 80S...TOUCHING 90 IN THE DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWER DEW PTS...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH AND ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BY SAT MORNING.
12 MODEL SUITE NOW SUGGESTING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
SOMETIME LATE SAT. HOWEVER...ANY UPPER LVL FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LOOKS TO STILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.0 INCHES...EXPECTING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
WIND SHIFT. HAVE KEPT THE LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR JUST THE FAR
WEST AREAS IN CASE OF TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE GONE BY SAT EVENING.

THE HIGH PUSHES EAST SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
QUIET WX TO THE AREA. HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATE MON
INTO TUE SWLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A CDFNT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AND STALLS AROUND OUR AREA THROUGH THU... BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL NEAR
NORMAL SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. TSTMS WILL MOVE THRU
THE TAF SITES EAST OF I-95 THRU 21Z. THESE STORMS COULD RESULT IN
GUSTY...VRB WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD REDUCE VIS TO IFR.
SLY WINDS LATE THIS AFTN WILL SHIFT THIS EVENING TO THE NW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT MVG THRU. WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY REACHING SCA CRITERIA
SO WILL LET THE SCA CONTINUE THRU THIS EVENING. SLY FLOW WILL
BECOME NWLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PSBL GUSTS TO 20 KTS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THRU FRI.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 301431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
14Z OBS AND VIS SAT INDICATING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK OVER
WESTERN PA STRETCHING INTO CENTRAL WV. REFLECTIVITY SHOWING LINE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MD WHERE THE INVERSION
HAS WEAKEN ALREADY THIS MORNING...AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. 14Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS LINE EAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA
FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...EVENTUALLY CONNECTING THE TWO OVER
NORTHERN VA LATER THIS AFTN.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
THICK CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST
LIKE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR
TRAILING. DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A
HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A
CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A
COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN TURNING COOLER MID WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL MOVE THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ANY STORM COULD RESULT IN GUSTY...VRB WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WHICH COULD REDUCE VIS TO IFR. ANY CONVECTION WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST BY 02Z THIS EVENING...WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING
THRU FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE
TIME LOOKS FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS. SCA CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT
LATE TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/SEARS/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 301431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
14Z OBS AND VIS SAT INDICATING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK OVER
WESTERN PA STRETCHING INTO CENTRAL WV. REFLECTIVITY SHOWING LINE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MD WHERE THE INVERSION
HAS WEAKEN ALREADY THIS MORNING...AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. 14Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS LINE EAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA
FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...EVENTUALLY CONNECTING THE TWO OVER
NORTHERN VA LATER THIS AFTN.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
THICK CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST
LIKE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR
TRAILING. DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A
HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A
CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A
COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN TURNING COOLER MID WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL MOVE THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ANY STORM COULD RESULT IN GUSTY...VRB WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WHICH COULD REDUCE VIS TO IFR. ANY CONVECTION WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST BY 02Z THIS EVENING...WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING
THRU FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE
TIME LOOKS FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS. SCA CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT
LATE TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/SEARS/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 301431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
14Z OBS AND VIS SAT INDICATING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK OVER
WESTERN PA STRETCHING INTO CENTRAL WV. REFLECTIVITY SHOWING LINE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MD WHERE THE INVERSION
HAS WEAKEN ALREADY THIS MORNING...AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. 14Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS LINE EAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA
FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...EVENTUALLY CONNECTING THE TWO OVER
NORTHERN VA LATER THIS AFTN.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
THICK CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST
LIKE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR
TRAILING. DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A
HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A
CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A
COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN TURNING COOLER MID WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL MOVE THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ANY STORM COULD RESULT IN GUSTY...VRB WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WHICH COULD REDUCE VIS TO IFR. ANY CONVECTION WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST BY 02Z THIS EVENING...WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING
THRU FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE
TIME LOOKS FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS. SCA CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT
LATE TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/SEARS/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 301431
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1031 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
14Z OBS AND VIS SAT INDICATING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK OVER
WESTERN PA STRETCHING INTO CENTRAL WV. REFLECTIVITY SHOWING LINE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MD WHERE THE INVERSION
HAS WEAKEN ALREADY THIS MORNING...AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. 14Z HRRR CONTINUES THIS LINE EAST...WITH ANOTHER AREA
FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...EVENTUALLY CONNECTING THE TWO OVER
NORTHERN VA LATER THIS AFTN.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE
THICK CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST
LIKE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR
TRAILING. DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN
TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A
HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH
ESTABLISHES WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A
CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A
COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN TURNING COOLER MID WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL MOVE THRU THE TAF SITES THIS AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ANY STORM COULD RESULT IN GUSTY...VRB WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WHICH COULD REDUCE VIS TO IFR. ANY CONVECTION WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST BY 02Z THIS EVENING...WITH VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING
THRU FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE
TIME LOOKS FINE WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS. SCA CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT
LATE TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/SEARS
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/SEARS/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OFFSHORE WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW...ALONG
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS OVER SERN OH WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WV. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PUSHING EAST
OF THE BAY THIS EVENING. DUE TO WLY FLOW WITH THE ACTIVITY...EXPECT
A TYPICAL PATTERN OF GREATER COVERAGE NORTH IN THE CWA DUE TO
INCREASING DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN THIRD.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TWO LINES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THE
BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE WITH A SECOND BROKEN LINE ON THE FRONT ITSELF
THRIVING ON ANY REMAINING UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. BOTH LINES LOOK TO
BE GENERAL-YET-HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THICK
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST LIKE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE
UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR TRAILING.
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS 60S
WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN
SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TURNING COOLER MID
WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW 5- 10KT. WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING WV CROSSES TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCHO
MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING WITH NWLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KT AFTER THE FRONT. DRIER AND VFR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE TIME LOOKS FINE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING FOR MOST BAY WATERS UNTIL SUNRISE. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CROSS. SCA
CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.65FT ABOVE NORMAL AT
ANNAPOLIS IS MAKING FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD (THRESHOLD 2.4FT).
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING...SO NO FURTHER FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OFFSHORE WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW...ALONG
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS OVER SERN OH WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WV. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PUSHING EAST
OF THE BAY THIS EVENING. DUE TO WLY FLOW WITH THE ACTIVITY...EXPECT
A TYPICAL PATTERN OF GREATER COVERAGE NORTH IN THE CWA DUE TO
INCREASING DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN THIRD.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TWO LINES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THE
BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE WITH A SECOND BROKEN LINE ON THE FRONT ITSELF
THRIVING ON ANY REMAINING UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. BOTH LINES LOOK TO
BE GENERAL-YET-HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THICK
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST LIKE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE
UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR TRAILING.
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS 60S
WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN
SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TURNING COOLER MID
WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW 5- 10KT. WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING WV CROSSES TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCHO
MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING WITH NWLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KT AFTER THE FRONT. DRIER AND VFR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE TIME LOOKS FINE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING FOR MOST BAY WATERS UNTIL SUNRISE. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CROSS. SCA
CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.65FT ABOVE NORMAL AT
ANNAPOLIS IS MAKING FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD (THRESHOLD 2.4FT).
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING...SO NO FURTHER FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ





000
FXUS61 KLWX 300759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OFFSHORE WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW...ALONG
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS OVER SERN OH WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WV. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PUSHING EAST
OF THE BAY THIS EVENING. DUE TO WLY FLOW WITH THE ACTIVITY...EXPECT
A TYPICAL PATTERN OF GREATER COVERAGE NORTH IN THE CWA DUE TO
INCREASING DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN THIRD.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TWO LINES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THE
BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE WITH A SECOND BROKEN LINE ON THE FRONT ITSELF
THRIVING ON ANY REMAINING UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. BOTH LINES LOOK TO
BE GENERAL-YET-HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THICK
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST LIKE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE
UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR TRAILING.
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS 60S
WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN
SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TURNING COOLER MID
WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW 5- 10KT. WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING WV CROSSES TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCHO
MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING WITH NWLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KT AFTER THE FRONT. DRIER AND VFR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE TIME LOOKS FINE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING FOR MOST BAY WATERS UNTIL SUNRISE. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CROSS. SCA
CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.65FT ABOVE NORMAL AT
ANNAPOLIS IS MAKING FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD (THRESHOLD 2.4FT).
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING...SO NO FURTHER FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ





000
FXUS61 KLWX 300759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
OFFSHORE WITH A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS FLOW...ALONG
WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS OVER SERN OH WITH A SCATTERED LINE OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WV. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PUSHING EAST
OF THE BAY THIS EVENING. DUE TO WLY FLOW WITH THE ACTIVITY...EXPECT
A TYPICAL PATTERN OF GREATER COVERAGE NORTH IN THE CWA DUE TO
INCREASING DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. THEREFORE...LIKELY POPS PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SRN THIRD.

EXCEPTIONAL SFC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAKES THE GREATEST RISK TODAY
FLASH FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF
ACTIVITY IS BEST (AFTERNOON). HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY WILL LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE SEVERE THREAT.
JUST A LOW WET MICROBURST THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TWO LINES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THE
BROKEN PREFRONTAL LINE WITH A SECOND BROKEN LINE ON THE FRONT ITSELF
THRIVING ON ANY REMAINING UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. BOTH LINES LOOK TO
BE GENERAL-YET-HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT TODAY WITH MAX TEMPS LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THICK
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OUT THE LONGEST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN MAX HEAT INDICES AGAIN AROUND 100F (JUST LIKE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS). NO HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE
UNTIL THE STORMS HIT/FRONT CROSSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...COLD FRONT CLEARS
THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING WITH DRIER AIR TRAILING.
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE UPR 50S/LOW 60S TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS 60S
WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S EAST.

FRIDAY...H85 TEMPS 16-18 WITH MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 60F...SO NO HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED. DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FRI NIGHT. A PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES SAT WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUN GIVING WAY TO A HOT SUNNY DAY. WINDS TURN
SWRLY AGAIN ON MON AS PRESSURE TROUGH ESTABLISHES WITH SOME
MOISTURE RETURN AND A RISK OF T-STORMS. A CDFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUE WITH DRY NWRLY WINDS AND A COOLING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IN SUMMARY...HOT WX
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TURNING COOLER MID
WEEK ON. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR PREVAILS THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND SLY FLOW 5- 10KT. WEAK COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ENTERING WV CROSSES TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAFS EXCEPT KCHO
MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS END THIS EVENING WITH NWLY
FLOW AROUND 10 KT AFTER THE FRONT. DRIER AND VFR TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS SAT AND MON. REST OF THE TIME LOOKS FINE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING FOR MOST BAY WATERS UNTIL SUNRISE. SCA FOR
ALL WATERS STARTING AT 3PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL LATE EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH HEAVY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS CROSS. SCA
CONTINUES FOR MAIN BAY WATERS FOR NWLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KT LATE
TONIGHT. FLOW DECREASES TO 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY.

POSSIBLE SCA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA MOST OF THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. A SLIGHT RISK OF T-STORMS
SAT AND MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.65FT ABOVE NORMAL AT
ANNAPOLIS IS MAKING FOR A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD (THRESHOLD 2.4FT).
COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING...SO NO FURTHER FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>533-538>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR
MARINE...BAJ/LFR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300200
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN CVRG HAS BEEN MUCH SPOTTIER...AND LIGHTER...THAN THIS TIME
YDA. WARM LYR BTWN H6-4 ON 00Z LWX RAOB LKLY THE REASON WHY. RDR
TRENDS SEEM TO HV BEEN CAPTURED BY THE HRRR QUITE WELL. STORMS E
OF THE BLURDG HV DSPTD...W/ ONLY A FEW CELLS IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS. IF LTST CYCLE OUTPUT VERIFIES...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WL
ERODE BEFORE MIDNGT...W/ NOT MUCH GOING ON TIL NEW CELLS APPROACH
THE APLCNS PREDAWN. HV ADAPTED GRIDS TWD THIS DIRECTION...BUT HV
HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE MTNS. THAT CAN BE REEVALUATED.

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WET GRND AS PAST CPL NGTS. HWVR A FAIR AMT OF
CLR SKIES AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR-MID 70S SUGGESTS THERE WL ONCE AGN
BE POTL FOR FOG DVLPMNT. HV KEPT IT PATCHY AND NOT DENSE DUE TO
REASONS MENTIONED ABV...SITUATED ALONG/W OF BLURDG AS WELL AS
ACRS NRN MD.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE WAKE. THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC
FORCING CURRENTLY NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS IT WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO
THE SE AND E OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN
SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL
SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. SETUP SEEMS FVRBL FOR FOG
DVLPMNT ONCE AGN BTWN MIDNGT-DAWN. HWVR NOT AS MUCH WET GRND AS
PAST NGTS...WHICH IS COUNTERED BY HIER DEWPTS/LLVL HUMIDITY.
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW THESE TWO FACTORS WL BALANCE EACH OTHER. HV
OPTED TO KEEP PROLONGED MVFR CONDS OVNGT AT MRB...IFR AT CHO
WHERE SHRA WAS RECVD...AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR AT SUNRISE IAD/MTN. DO
NOT HV HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM. CUD SEE FLGT CONDS WORSE THAN FCST
BUT WAS HESITANT ON OFFERING UP PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MRNG PUSH WL ERODE BY MID MRNG. A CDFNT
WL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING THAT PUSH AS
WELL. SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WL BE FOUND ALONG/AHD OF THE FNT. THINK
THERE WL BE SOME DIURNAL STRENGTHENING...AND AM CARRYING VCTS FOR
DC/BALT TERMINALS AS A RESULT. WUD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IMPACT
AT CHO/MRB BUT PROBABILITY IS LESS. IN THE EVENT OF A DIRECT HIT
BRIEF AOB IFR CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTANTIES
PRECLUDE CARRYING ANY SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. WSHFT NEAR 18Z AT
MRB...SPREADING EAST TO 21-22Z DCA/BWI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KT ATTM. HWVR...SLY CHANNELING FCST TNGT
OVER THE MD BAY/LWR PTMC. MARGINAL WINDS /MAYBE JUST SHY OF ADVY/
FCST TO CONT THRU THE DAY THU...SPCLY AHD OF CDFNT. SCA ALREADY IN
PLACE. LOOKS SOLID TNGT...AND DO NOT HV CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE IT
FOR TMRW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A HALF FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMALS THIS EVENING.
HWVR...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST WATER LVL MODELS THAT THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE WL ECLIPSE THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS...WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUNS. ONLY A SLGT
INCREASE IN THE CURRENT DEPARTURE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BEAR THIS
OUT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY FOR AA COUNTY. HIGH TIDE AT APAM2
AT 5AM.

NO OTHER SITE IN JEOPARDY ATTM...ALTHO BALTIMORE CITY/COUNTY AND
WASD2 WL GET AWFULLY CLOSE. THE BALTIMORE HIGH TIDE RUNS BETWEEN
6-8 AM. AT SW DC HIGH TIDE IS APPROX 730 AM.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. NW WINDS
THEREAFTER SUGGEST THE UPCOMING TIDE WILL BE THE ONLY ONE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 300200
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN CVRG HAS BEEN MUCH SPOTTIER...AND LIGHTER...THAN THIS TIME
YDA. WARM LYR BTWN H6-4 ON 00Z LWX RAOB LKLY THE REASON WHY. RDR
TRENDS SEEM TO HV BEEN CAPTURED BY THE HRRR QUITE WELL. STORMS E
OF THE BLURDG HV DSPTD...W/ ONLY A FEW CELLS IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS. IF LTST CYCLE OUTPUT VERIFIES...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WL
ERODE BEFORE MIDNGT...W/ NOT MUCH GOING ON TIL NEW CELLS APPROACH
THE APLCNS PREDAWN. HV ADAPTED GRIDS TWD THIS DIRECTION...BUT HV
HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE MTNS. THAT CAN BE REEVALUATED.

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WET GRND AS PAST CPL NGTS. HWVR A FAIR AMT OF
CLR SKIES AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR-MID 70S SUGGESTS THERE WL ONCE AGN
BE POTL FOR FOG DVLPMNT. HV KEPT IT PATCHY AND NOT DENSE DUE TO
REASONS MENTIONED ABV...SITUATED ALONG/W OF BLURDG AS WELL AS
ACRS NRN MD.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE WAKE. THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC
FORCING CURRENTLY NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS IT WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO
THE SE AND E OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN
SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL
SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. SETUP SEEMS FVRBL FOR FOG
DVLPMNT ONCE AGN BTWN MIDNGT-DAWN. HWVR NOT AS MUCH WET GRND AS
PAST NGTS...WHICH IS COUNTERED BY HIER DEWPTS/LLVL HUMIDITY.
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW THESE TWO FACTORS WL BALANCE EACH OTHER. HV
OPTED TO KEEP PROLONGED MVFR CONDS OVNGT AT MRB...IFR AT CHO
WHERE SHRA WAS RECVD...AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR AT SUNRISE IAD/MTN. DO
NOT HV HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM. CUD SEE FLGT CONDS WORSE THAN FCST
BUT WAS HESITANT ON OFFERING UP PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MRNG PUSH WL ERODE BY MID MRNG. A CDFNT
WL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING THAT PUSH AS
WELL. SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WL BE FOUND ALONG/AHD OF THE FNT. THINK
THERE WL BE SOME DIURNAL STRENGTHENING...AND AM CARRYING VCTS FOR
DC/BALT TERMINALS AS A RESULT. WUD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IMPACT
AT CHO/MRB BUT PROBABILITY IS LESS. IN THE EVENT OF A DIRECT HIT
BRIEF AOB IFR CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTANTIES
PRECLUDE CARRYING ANY SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. WSHFT NEAR 18Z AT
MRB...SPREADING EAST TO 21-22Z DCA/BWI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KT ATTM. HWVR...SLY CHANNELING FCST TNGT
OVER THE MD BAY/LWR PTMC. MARGINAL WINDS /MAYBE JUST SHY OF ADVY/
FCST TO CONT THRU THE DAY THU...SPCLY AHD OF CDFNT. SCA ALREADY IN
PLACE. LOOKS SOLID TNGT...AND DO NOT HV CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE IT
FOR TMRW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A HALF FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMALS THIS EVENING.
HWVR...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST WATER LVL MODELS THAT THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE WL ECLIPSE THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS...WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUNS. ONLY A SLGT
INCREASE IN THE CURRENT DEPARTURE WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BEAR THIS
OUT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE ADVY FOR AA COUNTY. HIGH TIDE AT APAM2
AT 5AM.

NO OTHER SITE IN JEOPARDY ATTM...ALTHO BALTIMORE CITY/COUNTY AND
WASD2 WL GET AWFULLY CLOSE. THE BALTIMORE HIGH TIDE RUNS BETWEEN
6-8 AM. AT SW DC HIGH TIDE IS APPROX 730 AM.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. NW WINDS
THEREAFTER SUGGEST THE UPCOMING TIDE WILL BE THE ONLY ONE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 300050
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN CVRG HAS BEEN MUCH SPOTTIER...AND LIGHTER...THAN THIS TIME
YDA. WARM LYR BTWN H6-4 ON 00Z LWX RAOB LKLY THE REASON WHY. RDR
TRENDS SEEM TO HV BEEN CAPTURED BY THE HRRR QUITE WELL. STORMS E
OF THE BLURDG HV DSPTD...W/ ONLY A FEW CELLS IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS. IF LTST CYCLE OUTPUT VERIFIES...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WL
ERODE BEFORE MIDNGT...W/ NOT MUCH GOING ON TIL NEW CELLS APPROACH
THE APLCNS PREDAWN. HV ADAPTED GRIDS TWD THIS DIRECTION...BUT HV
HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE MTNS. THAT CAN BE REEVALUATED.

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WET GRND AS PAST CPL NGTS. HWVR A FAIR AMT OF
CLR SKIES AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR-MID 70S SUGGESTS THERE WL ONCE AGN
BE POTL FOR FOG DVLPMNT. HV KEPT IT PATCHY AND NOT DENSE DUE TO
REASONS MENTIONED ABV...SITUATED ALONG/W OF BLURDG AS WELL AS
ACRS NRN MD.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE WAKE. THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC
FORCING CURRENTLY NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS IT WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO
THE SE AND E OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN
SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL
SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. SETUP SEEMS FVRBL FOR FOG
DVLPMNT ONCE AGN BTWN MIDNGT-DAWN. HWVR NOT AS MUCH WET GRND AS
PAST NGTS...WHICH IS COUNTERED BY HIER DEWPTS/LLVL HUMIDITY.
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW THESE TWO FACTORS WL BALANCE EACH OTHER. HV
OPTED TO KEEP PROLONGED MVFR CONDS OVNGT AT MRB...IFR AT CHO
WHERE SHRA WAS RECVD...AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR AT SUNRISE IAD/MTN. DO
NOT HV HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM. CUD SEE FLGT CONDS WORSE THAN FCST
BUT WAS HESITANT ON OFFERING UP PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MRNG PUSH WL ERODE BY MID MRNG. A CDFNT
WL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING THAT PUSH AS
WELL. SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WL BE FOUND ALONG/AHD OF THE FNT. THINK
THERE WL BE SOME DIURNAL STRENGTHENING...AND AM CARRYING VCTS FOR
DC/BALT TERMINALS AS A RESULT. WUD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IMPACT
AT CHO/MRB BUT PROBABILITY IS LESS. IN THE EVENT OF A DIRECT HIT
BRIEF AOB IFR CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTANTIES
PRECLUDE CARRYING ANY SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. WSHFT NEAR 18Z AT
MRB...SPREADING EAST TO 21-22Z DCA/BWI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KT ATTM. HWVR...SLY CHANNELING FCST TNGT
OVER THE MD BAY/LWR PTMC. MARGINAL WINDS /MAYBE JUST SHY OF ADVY/
FCST TO CONT THRU THE DAY THU...SPCLY AHD OF CDFNT. SCA ALREADY IN
PLACE. LOOKS SOLID TNGT...AND DO NOT HV CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE IT
FOR TMRW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A HALF FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMALS THIS EVENING.
HWVR...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST WATER LVL MODELS THAT THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE WL ECLIPSE THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS. ONLY A SLGT INCREASE IN THE CURRENT DEPARTURE WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BEAR THIS OUT. HIGH TIDE AT APAM2 AT 5AM. WL BE
AWAITING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. CONSISTENCY SUGGESTS THAT AN ADVY
MAY BE WARRANTED.

NO OTHER SITE IN JEOPARDY ATTM...ALTHO WASD2 WL GET AWFULLY CLOSE
FOR 730 AM HIGH TIDE.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. NW WINDS
THEREAFTER SUGGEST THE UPCOMING TIDE WILL BE THE ONLY ONE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS





000
FXUS61 KLWX 300050
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
850 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PCPN CVRG HAS BEEN MUCH SPOTTIER...AND LIGHTER...THAN THIS TIME
YDA. WARM LYR BTWN H6-4 ON 00Z LWX RAOB LKLY THE REASON WHY. RDR
TRENDS SEEM TO HV BEEN CAPTURED BY THE HRRR QUITE WELL. STORMS E
OF THE BLURDG HV DSPTD...W/ ONLY A FEW CELLS IN THE PTMC
HIGHLANDS. IF LTST CYCLE OUTPUT VERIFIES...EVEN THIS ACTIVITY WL
ERODE BEFORE MIDNGT...W/ NOT MUCH GOING ON TIL NEW CELLS APPROACH
THE APLCNS PREDAWN. HV ADAPTED GRIDS TWD THIS DIRECTION...BUT HV
HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE MTNS. THAT CAN BE REEVALUATED.

NOT NEARLY AS MUCH WET GRND AS PAST CPL NGTS. HWVR A FAIR AMT OF
CLR SKIES AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR-MID 70S SUGGESTS THERE WL ONCE AGN
BE POTL FOR FOG DVLPMNT. HV KEPT IT PATCHY AND NOT DENSE DUE TO
REASONS MENTIONED ABV...SITUATED ALONG/W OF BLURDG AS WELL AS
ACRS NRN MD.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATES OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST IN THE WAKE. THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
BROAD CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC
FORCING CURRENTLY NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING
CONDITIONS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST AS IT WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO
THE SE AND E OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN
SHOWERS ON MON AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO
HAVE KEPT LOW POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL
SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. SETUP SEEMS FVRBL FOR FOG
DVLPMNT ONCE AGN BTWN MIDNGT-DAWN. HWVR NOT AS MUCH WET GRND AS
PAST NGTS...WHICH IS COUNTERED BY HIER DEWPTS/LLVL HUMIDITY.
UNSURE EXACTLY HOW THESE TWO FACTORS WL BALANCE EACH OTHER. HV
OPTED TO KEEP PROLONGED MVFR CONDS OVNGT AT MRB...IFR AT CHO
WHERE SHRA WAS RECVD...AND ONLY BRIEF MVFR AT SUNRISE IAD/MTN. DO
NOT HV HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM. CUD SEE FLGT CONDS WORSE THAN FCST
BUT WAS HESITANT ON OFFERING UP PROLONGED RESTRICTIONS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE MRNG PUSH WL ERODE BY MID MRNG. A CDFNT
WL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING THAT PUSH AS
WELL. SCT-NRMS SHRA/TSRA WL BE FOUND ALONG/AHD OF THE FNT. THINK
THERE WL BE SOME DIURNAL STRENGTHENING...AND AM CARRYING VCTS FOR
DC/BALT TERMINALS AS A RESULT. WUD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IMPACT
AT CHO/MRB BUT PROBABILITY IS LESS. IN THE EVENT OF A DIRECT HIT
BRIEF AOB IFR CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTANTIES
PRECLUDE CARRYING ANY SPECIFIC MENTION ATTM. WSHFT NEAR 18Z AT
MRB...SPREADING EAST TO 21-22Z DCA/BWI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WNDS SUSTAINED 10-15 KT ATTM. HWVR...SLY CHANNELING FCST TNGT
OVER THE MD BAY/LWR PTMC. MARGINAL WINDS /MAYBE JUST SHY OF ADVY/
FCST TO CONT THRU THE DAY THU...SPCLY AHD OF CDFNT. SCA ALREADY IN
PLACE. LOOKS SOLID TNGT...AND DO NOT HV CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE IT
FOR TMRW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING ABT A HALF FOOT ABV ASTRO NORMALS THIS EVENING.
HWVR...THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST WATER LVL MODELS THAT THE
UPCOMING HIGH TIDE WL ECLIPSE THE MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLD AT
ANNAPOLIS. ONLY A SLGT INCREASE IN THE CURRENT DEPARTURE WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO BEAR THIS OUT. HIGH TIDE AT APAM2 AT 5AM. WL BE
AWAITING THE LATEST GUIDANCE. CONSISTENCY SUGGESTS THAT AN ADVY
MAY BE WARRANTED.

NO OTHER SITE IN JEOPARDY ATTM...ALTHO WASD2 WL GET AWFULLY CLOSE
FOR 730 AM HIGH TIDE.

THE PM TIDE WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO ASTRONOMICALLY. NW WINDS
THEREAFTER SUGGEST THE UPCOMING TIDE WILL BE THE ONLY ONE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/SEARS/IMR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD T-STORMS
ONGOING PRIMARILY OVER NE MD. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS VERY WARM AND
SULTRY WITH LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW 80F IN THE DISTRICT.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE
COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY
LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BROAD CLOSED LOW
OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC FORCING CURRENTLY
NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING CONDITIONS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS IT
WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO THE SE AND E
OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN SHOWERS ON MON
AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL SUN AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
T-STORM UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS. CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE BAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THU. SCA WAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE BAY.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/LFR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 291855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD T-STORMS
ONGOING PRIMARILY OVER NE MD. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS VERY WARM AND
SULTRY WITH LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW 80F IN THE DISTRICT.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE
COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY
LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BROAD CLOSED LOW
OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC FORCING CURRENTLY
NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING CONDITIONS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS IT
WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO THE SE AND E
OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN SHOWERS ON MON
AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL SUN AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
T-STORM UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS. CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE BAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THU. SCA WAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE BAY.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/LFR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/LFR




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291855
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND ISOLD T-STORMS
ONGOING PRIMARILY OVER NE MD. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS VERY WARM AND
SULTRY WITH LOWS BARELY DROPPING BELOW 80F IN THE DISTRICT.

CDFNT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ENTER THE FCST
AREA AROUND 18Z THU AND SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY 03Z FRI.
FRONT WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF ITS PUNCH BUT IT APPEARS THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BAND OF -SHRA/TSRA RIGHT ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...12Z MODEL SUITE HAS THE
COLD FRONT PLACED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY. ANY
LINGERING PCPN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN AT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BROAD CLOSED LOW
OVER CANADA...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW REMAINING
WELL TO THE NORTH. AS SUCH...EXPECTING DRY WX FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
12Z GFS SUGGESTING LIGHT PCPN OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
SAT AFTN WITH A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY
FOR NOW THOUGH DURING THIS TIME WITH LACK OF SFC FORCING CURRENTLY
NOTED.

QUICK SHOT OF CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY DROP 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESULTING IN HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 80S. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN...WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT AFTN. LOWS FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 ON
SATURDAY. DEW PTS IN THE 60S SAT SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR SUN INTO MON WITH HIGH PRESS DOMINATING CONDITIONS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT LINGERS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS IT
WEAKENS... THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS TO THE SE AND E
OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME AFTN SHOWERS ON MON
AND TUE... BUT CONFIDENCE WITH IT IS LOW ATTM... SO HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON WED INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR NORMAL SUN AND
GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
T-STORM UNTIL 00Z TONIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AT THE USUAL TROUBLE SPOTS. CDFNT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON

VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR
LESS...SHIFTING FROM THE NW FRIDAY TO A WESTERLY FLOW SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SRLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE BAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THU. SCA WAS EXPANDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE BAY.

BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY...WITH ALL WATERS BCMG SUB-SCA BY FRI AFT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537-539>541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...SEARS/IMR/LFR
MARINE...SEARS/IMR/LFR





000
FXUS61 KLWX 291342 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
942 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

12Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MOISTURE EXTENDS DEEPER TODAY UP TO 600 MB AND
PWAT VALUES ARE UP TO 1.75 INCHES. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THIS MORNING MAY DELAY ONSET OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND
BETTER DEFINED TODAY SUGGESTING STORMS WILL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER
BUT MOISTURE IS DEEPER WHICH MAY STILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES APPEAR WILL GET AWFUL CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 2-3F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS
AGO. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO
COOLER THAN YDAY KEEPING HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW 105F. WILL
MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

&&

.TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 291342 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
942 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

12Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MOISTURE EXTENDS DEEPER TODAY UP TO 600 MB AND
PWAT VALUES ARE UP TO 1.75 INCHES. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THIS MORNING MAY DELAY ONSET OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND
BETTER DEFINED TODAY SUGGESTING STORMS WILL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER
BUT MOISTURE IS DEEPER WHICH MAY STILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES APPEAR WILL GET AWFUL CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 2-3F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS
AGO. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO
COOLER THAN YDAY KEEPING HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW 105F. WILL
MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

&&

.TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 291342 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
942 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

12Z IAD RAOB SHOWS MOISTURE EXTENDS DEEPER TODAY UP TO 600 MB AND
PWAT VALUES ARE UP TO 1.75 INCHES. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
THIS MORNING MAY DELAY ONSET OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND
BETTER DEFINED TODAY SUGGESTING STORMS WILL MOVE A LITTLE FASTER
BUT MOISTURE IS DEEPER WHICH MAY STILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES APPEAR WILL GET AWFUL CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 2-3F HIGHER THAN 24 HRS
AGO. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO
COOLER THAN YDAY KEEPING HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW 105F. WILL
MONITOR OBS CLOSELY AND ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

&&

.TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 290912
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR N-CNTRL VA AND N-CNTRL SHEN VLY
PER AWOS AND TRAFFIC CAMS.

AS OF 07Z...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...H5
HIGH CENTERED OVER OK AND WEAK HIGH AT THE SFC...INCLUDING THE MID-
ATLANTIC. DEEP COLD CORE LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND HEADING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE MOVED
SOUTH INTO THE CWA.

ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN QUARTER OF THE CWA...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S FOR HEAT INDICES OF UPR 90S TO 100F
IN URBAN CENTERS LIKE BALT AND WASH.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-050>052-055-056-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE





000
FXUS61 KLWX 290912
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FOR N-CNTRL VA AND N-CNTRL SHEN VLY
PER AWOS AND TRAFFIC CAMS.

AS OF 07Z...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...H5
HIGH CENTERED OVER OK AND WEAK HIGH AT THE SFC...INCLUDING THE MID-
ATLANTIC. DEEP COLD CORE LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND HEADING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE MOVED
SOUTH INTO THE CWA.

ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN QUARTER OF THE CWA...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S FOR HEAT INDICES OF UPR 90S TO 100F
IN URBAN CENTERS LIKE BALT AND WASH.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ026-027-
     029-030-050>052-055-056-502.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 07Z...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...H5
HIGH CENTERED OVER OK AND WEAK HIGH AT THE SFC...INCLUDING THE MID-
ATLANTIC. DEEP COLD CORE LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND HEADING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE MOVED
SOUTH INTO THE CWA. PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES...SHOULD AREAS BE
IDENTIFIED...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN QUARTER OF THE CWA...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S FOR HEAT INDICES OF UPR 90S TO 100F
IN URBAN CENTERS LIKE BALT AND WASH.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE




000
FXUS61 KLWX 290800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 07Z...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS...H5
HIGH CENTERED OVER OK AND WEAK HIGH AT THE SFC...INCLUDING THE MID-
ATLANTIC. DEEP COLD CORE LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND HEADING
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED AS THEY HAVE MOVED
SOUTH INTO THE CWA. PATCHY DENSE FOG CONTINUES...SHOULD AREAS BE
IDENTIFIED...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

ANOTHER DAY OF HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED COVERAGE
IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN QUARTER OF THE CWA...ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S FOR HEAT INDICES OF UPR 90S TO 100F
IN URBAN CENTERS LIKE BALT AND WASH.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT (NOW STRUNG OUT FROM THE PARENT LOW OVER
ONTARIO) CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. POPS INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY PER DIURNAL TRENDS. FRONT IS A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS...COMES IN QUICKER WITH AFTERNOON
LIKELY POPS FOR BALT-WASH METRO THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS LOW TO
POSSIBLY MID 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOULD IT PUSH THROUGH
SOONER...TEMPS WOULD BE MODERATED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE SERN ZONES THURSDAY EVENING
WITH COOLER AIR TRAILING. MIN TEMPS 60S WEST OF I-95...LOW 70S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR LAST DAY OF JULY THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE CWA
BY 8 AM FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH THIS
FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE U80S/L90S. BUT
DEWPOINTS DROP AT LEAST TEN DEGREES...AND GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 65F
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY LOW...WITH NO DECENT
SOURCE OF LIFT AND QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. WHILE LOW...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP OCCUR MONDAY IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURN SLOWLY COMMENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VSBYS/POSSIBLE CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE UNDER WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR
SKIES...PARTICULARLY WHERE IT RAINED LATE TUESDAY. VFR THEN PREVAILS
INTO TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCES FOR TSTMS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
KCHO THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR DC METROS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SLY CHANNELING THIS EVENING SOUTH OF SANDY PT.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA FRIDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOW CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/MSE
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...BAJ/MSE
MARINE...BAJ/MSE





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