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000
FXUS61 KLWX 020228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME VERY ISOLATED. ONE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS VA MAY BRUSH
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND OTHER SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE APPROACHING THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HRRR HAS DEPICTED THIS PRETTY WELL...AND
INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED...CLOUD TOPS ON THE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS
ARE AT -36C...INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF BWI/MTN. FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLIER GUSTS ON THE WATERS NEAR TANGIER SOUND HAVE DIMINISHED.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/BPP/KCS
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 020228
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1028 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME VERY ISOLATED. ONE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS VA MAY BRUSH
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND OTHER SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE APPROACHING THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HRRR HAS DEPICTED THIS PRETTY WELL...AND
INDICATES SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. KEPT
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD BE ISOLATED...CLOUD TOPS ON THE SHOWER NEAR WARM SPRINGS
ARE AT -36C...INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF BWI/MTN. FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLIER GUSTS ON THE WATERS NEAR TANGIER SOUND HAVE DIMINISHED.
WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 10KT OR LESS TONIGHT.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/BPP/KCS
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 012357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
757 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV...AND SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING EASTERN WV. THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT IN THE EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL FOSTER A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH MOIST AIR
IN PLACE...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR SURFACE BASED
CAPE TO DROP BELOW 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN WV
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A VORT MAX APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KCHO. FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-17KT NOTED NEAR TANGIER SOUND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS AROUND 1-2KFT. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO MIX
DOWN OVER THE OPEN COOLER WATERS...AND NEARSHORE GUSTS SHOULD
DECREASE AS INSTABILITY OVER LAND DECREASES. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/KCS/BPP
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 012357
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
757 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WV...AND SOME ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING EASTERN WV. THIS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT IN THE EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF SUNLIGHT WILL FOSTER A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...BUT WITH MOIST AIR
IN PLACE...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR SURFACE BASED
CAPE TO DROP BELOW 1000 J/KG...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN WV
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MD THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN VA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A VORT MAX APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BUT IT MAY BE INHIBITED IN SOME SPOTS WITH APPROACHING
CLOUDS FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST.

LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TONIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN ELEVATED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KCHO. FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME WIND GUSTS TO 15-17KT NOTED NEAR TANGIER SOUND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT
IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS AROUND 1-2KFT. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO MIX
DOWN OVER THE OPEN COOLER WATERS...AND NEARSHORE GUSTS SHOULD
DECREASE AS INSTABILITY OVER LAND DECREASES. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TSTM POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEM/BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP/KCS
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...CEM/KCS/BPP
MARINE...CEM/BPP/KCS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 011841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED ACROSS THE CWA...CU HAVE
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS PEAK HEATING
CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS
WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 DEGREES ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS LIKELY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCORPORATING LATEST RUNS OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV/NORTHERN
VA WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD ALSO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS EITHER BUT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR
SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST/DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SUN
SETS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUBS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY ENDING BY SUNSET. VCTS CURRENTLY IN
TAFS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS MAY NEED TO AMEND FOR TSRA INCLUSION.
REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...TSRA POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CEM
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BPP/CEM
MARINE...BPP/CEM









000
FXUS61 KLWX 011841
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
241 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED ACROSS THE CWA...CU HAVE
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS PEAK HEATING
CONTRIBUTES TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS
WELL...WITH DEWPOINTS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70 DEGREES ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS LIKELY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE BIT DUE TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND INCORPORATING LATEST RUNS OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV/NORTHERN
VA WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD ALSO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER STORMS EITHER BUT GIVEN WEAK SHEAR
SEVERE RISK IS LOW.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST/DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SUN
SETS...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT 12Z TUE.
BUT FRONT WILL MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...MAKING IT TO THE
POTOMAC HIGHLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
WARM AND MOIST...BUT CONVECTION LIKELY WAITS UNTIL THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND HAVE POPS EXPANDING EASTWARD WITH TIME HIGHEST
IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE /DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM ONCE THE SUN SETS. FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT. POPS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST.

DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE. WHILE
DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER...DOWNSLOPING WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH STILL MAY BE NEAR 90. SAME TYPE OF SCENARIO ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MOISTURE AND WEAK PVA MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE HUBS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY ENDING BY SUNSET. VCTS CURRENTLY IN
TAFS...BASED ON RADAR TRENDS MAY NEED TO AMEND FOR TSRA INCLUSION.
REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...TSRA POSSIBLE
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELLING/SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CEM
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...BPP/CEM
MARINE...BPP/CEM








000
FXUS61 KLWX 011358
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z KIAD SOUNDING WAS JUICY...PW VALUE OVER 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
HIGHLANDS LIKELY TO EXPAND EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN WHY RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT VARIOUS POINTS SHOW THE PW VALUE DECREASING A BIT BY
AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN 1.75" ISN/T BAD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN AND
NORTHEAST MD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHLANDS BY
MIDDAY. AM UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING MAY HELP TO INHIBIT
COVERAGE...BUT ONE WOULD THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /MAYBE
LOW END SCATTERED/ TO FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON. POPS/WX REFLECT THIS.

GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO MOVE CONVECTION AND THUS LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT IF SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK THIS SHOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE HUBS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
JUST A PASSING SHOWER. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 18-19Z...THUS THE VCTS. THIS MAY BE
TOO EARLY...AND AM SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL
BE APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF-ARW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW VIS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/GMS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 011358
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
958 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z KIAD SOUNDING WAS JUICY...PW VALUE OVER 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR
LOOP INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO THE
HIGHLANDS LIKELY TO EXPAND EAST TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EXPLAIN WHY RUC/NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT VARIOUS POINTS SHOW THE PW VALUE DECREASING A BIT BY
AFTERNOON. BUT EVEN 1.75" ISN/T BAD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING...SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN AND
NORTHEAST MD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE HIGHLANDS BY
MIDDAY. AM UNCERTAIN ON COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING MAY HELP TO INHIBIT
COVERAGE...BUT ONE WOULD THINK THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS /MAYBE
LOW END SCATTERED/ TO FORM BY MID-AFTERNOON. POPS/WX REFLECT THIS.

GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO MOVE CONVECTION AND THUS LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL.
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT IF SHEAR REMAINS
RELATIVELY WEAK THIS SHOULD LIMIT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z AT THE HUBS.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH
JUST A PASSING SHOWER. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY 18-19Z...THUS THE VCTS. THIS MAY BE
TOO EARLY...AND AM SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE WILL
BE APPARENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WILL EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE AND
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR/WRF-ARW AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/
WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LOW VIS IN
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/WIND SHIFTS. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/BPP
NEAR TERM...BAJ/BPP
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/BPP/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/BPP/GMS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EVENING ACTIVITY IS STILL LYING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. A DIURNAL RESURGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH
LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

THE HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/ WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI
INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
10 TO 15KT SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SWLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT PERSISTS. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







000
FXUS61 KLWX 010759
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL
PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EVENING ACTIVITY IS STILL LYING EAST-WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IS CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. A DIURNAL RESURGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK SFC RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR AN OVERNIGHT/MOST OF TUESDAY REPRIEVE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER OUT WEST
WHERE ACTIVITY WILL FIRE FIRST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEHIND A SHARP AND POTENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LARGE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
CURRENT WEEK. THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGHWAY OF FAST-MOVING FLOW WILL NOT
ONLY TAKE THE TUE TROUGH PASSAGE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND OFF
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...BUT BRING ANOTHER TOWARD THE AREA JUST A COUPLE
OF DAYS LATER - ALL THE WAY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. THE UPPER RIDGE
LAID OUT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THESE
LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSES FROM MAKING A RUN TOO FAR SOUTH. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE TUE/EARLY WED SYSTEM AND THE LATE WEEK ONE WILL
LARGELY SKIM THE REGION W/ THE JUST THE RESIDUAL/LEFTOVER EFFECTS OF
THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

EVEN W/ THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE W/
MORE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...THE UPPER DYNAMICS BEHIND THE STRENGTH
OF THE FRONT WILL TAKE OFF TO THE NE. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY WILL
STALL-OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES WED INTO THU. ONLY A SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM REACHING THE HIGHER
LEVELS EXPECTED ON TUE - THAT OF L-M90S. INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL TOP OUT IN THE M80S...W/ U80S DOTTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR AREA
AND EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND A LIGHT WNW WIND WILL DOWNSLOPE
AND HELP BUMP UP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEG.

WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...DAILY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG IT - ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY UP INTO CNTRL VA...BUT LIKELY JUST SHY OF THE
SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE
THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS AND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL ROLL OFF
THE COAST AND START UP AN ONSHORE FLOW AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
THIS WILL HELP TO START OUR COOL-DOWN FROM THE ABNORMALLY HOT/HUMID
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE W/ THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS FORM
ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT IS LYING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT IFR CONDS UNDER THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR
WEST FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH
LEADING THUNDERSTORM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

THE HOT/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WANE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON WED...W/ WINDS SHIFTING TOWARD NWLY
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET INTO FRI...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE PRECIP FROM FRI
INTO SAT...SAGGING JUST S OF THE AREA FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
10 TO 15KT SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TUE EVE. THE FRONT
WILL DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THE SFC
HIGH WILL LARGELY KEEP WINDS LIGHT INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...MOVING OFF THE COAST BY EARLY FRI - AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE MED/LONG RANGES OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AS SWLY FLOW UP TO 15 KT PERSISTS. WATER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORMAL BY MIDDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BAJ/GMS
MARINE...BAJ/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 010049
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE DEPICTS NMRS SHRA/TSRA FM OMH/OKV THRU DCA TO
NAK. ACTIVITY ATTM SUPPORTED BY A TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WHICH WL BE
CROSSING THE AREA THRU 06Z. RAFL RATES STILL AOA 1 INCH/HR...AND
00Z LWX RAOB CONTAINS 2.2 IN PWAT. HWVR...W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS WELL AS ENERGY SPENT FM PRVS STORMS...CAPE VALUES
HOVERING ARND 1000 J/KG PER MESO ANALY. /OUR RAOB ONLY CONTAINS
ABT 600 J/KG...W/ 125 J/KG CINH/. THEREFORE...XPCT A CONTD DECLINE
IN TERMS OF STRONG/PSBL SVR TSTMS. INSTEAD...WE SHUD BE LOOKING AT
JUST HVY RAINERS FOR THE REST OF THE ENVG.

IN TERMS OF HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT...HRRR HAS BEEN PROVIDING A
FAIRLY REASONABLE DEPICTION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HRS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WUD THINK THAT THE CRRDR RECEIVING SHRA/STORMS WL
CONT TO DO SO THRU AT LEAST MIDNGT. AFT THAT...CNVCTN WL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE...BUT STILL IN THE SAME ZONE.

TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY FM W OF IAD TO NEAR NAK/BWI THX TO ERLR
TSRA. BUT...THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR DEWPTS ATTM...SO ADDTL COOLING
NOT XPCTD. USED LAMP GDNC TO RETOOL TEMPS...BUT IMPACT ON MIN-T
FCST MINIMAL.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...AM JUST DEPICTING
PATCHY FOG IN CLIMO FAVORED VLYS. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN THE STRIPE FM HEF/IAD TO BWI/NAK WL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. TSRA HAS MOSTLY PUSHED S/E OF
THE TERMINALS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHRA...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ADDTL SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...WL HOLD METROS AT
VFR AND KEEP PREDAWN MVFR AT ONLY CHO/MRB. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN WL NEED TO REASSESS.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE. WL BE KEEPING VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS.
HWVR...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL W/IN SHRA/TSRA.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY CNVCTN.
CASE IN POINT...TPLM2 WNDS HV SWITCHED ARND TO NLY. HWVR...STRONGER
STORMS MAY HV HIER WND GUSTS...AND WL BE COVERED BY SMW/S. CRRNT
THINKING IS TO RIDE OUT GOING SCA FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY
THRU ITS 11PM EXPIRATION.

SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON. GDNC CONTS TO SUGGEST THAT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER THAN TDA.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON MOST OF THE BAY STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT.
LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSSED NEAR WASH DC HAS PUSHED SOME OF THE
WATER OUT OF THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS THE
TIDE ROLLS BACK IN AGAIN. ANNAPOLIS ON THE CUSP OF EXCEEDING
MINOR CRITERIA ATTM...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH CAUTION STAGE.

AS SLY FLOW LIGHTENS MON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT DEPARTURES
WILL EASE SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE /MON
AM/...WHICH IS THE LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ANYWAY...SHOULDNT RESULT
IN ADDTL INUNDATION. OF COURSE...WE/LL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 010049
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
849 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE DEPICTS NMRS SHRA/TSRA FM OMH/OKV THRU DCA TO
NAK. ACTIVITY ATTM SUPPORTED BY A TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WHICH WL BE
CROSSING THE AREA THRU 06Z. RAFL RATES STILL AOA 1 INCH/HR...AND
00Z LWX RAOB CONTAINS 2.2 IN PWAT. HWVR...W/ THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AS WELL AS ENERGY SPENT FM PRVS STORMS...CAPE VALUES
HOVERING ARND 1000 J/KG PER MESO ANALY. /OUR RAOB ONLY CONTAINS
ABT 600 J/KG...W/ 125 J/KG CINH/. THEREFORE...XPCT A CONTD DECLINE
IN TERMS OF STRONG/PSBL SVR TSTMS. INSTEAD...WE SHUD BE LOOKING AT
JUST HVY RAINERS FOR THE REST OF THE ENVG.

IN TERMS OF HOW THAT MAY PLAY OUT...HRRR HAS BEEN PROVIDING A
FAIRLY REASONABLE DEPICTION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HRS. WITH
THAT IN MIND...WUD THINK THAT THE CRRDR RECEIVING SHRA/STORMS WL
CONT TO DO SO THRU AT LEAST MIDNGT. AFT THAT...CNVCTN WL BE MORE
SCT IN NATURE...BUT STILL IN THE SAME ZONE.

TEMPS DROPPED QUICKLY FM W OF IAD TO NEAR NAK/BWI THX TO ERLR
TSRA. BUT...THOSE LOCATIONS NEAR DEWPTS ATTM...SO ADDTL COOLING
NOT XPCTD. USED LAMP GDNC TO RETOOL TEMPS...BUT IMPACT ON MIN-T
FCST MINIMAL.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...AM JUST DEPICTING
PATCHY FOG IN CLIMO FAVORED VLYS. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN THE STRIPE FM HEF/IAD TO BWI/NAK WL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS ATTM. TSRA HAS MOSTLY PUSHED S/E OF
THE TERMINALS. STILL MAY SEE A FEW MORE SHRA...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ADDTL SUBSTANTIVE RESTRICTIONS IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONSIDERING SATURATION AND WET GRND WUD BE CONCERNED ABT FOG...BUT
STILL HV A FAIRLY SOLID CLD DECK ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WL
IMPEDE IN ITS FORMATION. FOR THE TIME BEING...WL HOLD METROS AT
VFR AND KEEP PREDAWN MVFR AT ONLY CHO/MRB. IF THERES ANY CLRG OR
LIFTING...THEN WL NEED TO REASSESS.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE. WL BE KEEPING VFR CONDS IN THE TAFS.
HWVR...FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL W/IN SHRA/TSRA.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY CNVCTN.
CASE IN POINT...TPLM2 WNDS HV SWITCHED ARND TO NLY. HWVR...STRONGER
STORMS MAY HV HIER WND GUSTS...AND WL BE COVERED BY SMW/S. CRRNT
THINKING IS TO RIDE OUT GOING SCA FOR THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE BAY
THRU ITS 11PM EXPIRATION.

SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON. GDNC CONTS TO SUGGEST THAT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER THAN TDA.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON MOST OF THE BAY STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT.
LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKS LIKE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CROSSED NEAR WASH DC HAS PUSHED SOME OF THE
WATER OUT OF THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE AS THE
TIDE ROLLS BACK IN AGAIN. ANNAPOLIS ON THE CUSP OF EXCEEDING
MINOR CRITERIA ATTM...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH CAUTION STAGE.

AS SLY FLOW LIGHTENS MON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT DEPARTURES
WILL EASE SLIGHTLY. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE NEXT TIDE CYCLE /MON
AM/...WHICH IS THE LOWER ASTRONOMICALLY ANYWAY...SHOULDNT RESULT
IN ADDTL INUNDATION. OF COURSE...WE/LL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ532>534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS







000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 311929
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREA BETWEEN I-81 AND THE BAY HAS RECEIVED PLENTY OF INSOLATION
TODAY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE DVLPMNT OF LEE TROFFING EVIDENT IN LTST
SFC ANALY. OTRW...THE NEAREST SYNOP FEATURE IS A WK CDFNT IN THE
ST LAWR VLY SWWD TO DTW. A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD ALONG
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY...FM FDK-OKV-HIGHLAND CO VA. ADDTL
TSRA CAN BE FOUND JUST OVER THE SUSQ RIVER IN CECIL CO.

MESO ANALY SUGGESTS A RIBBON OF MUCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR ALONG AND JUST E OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORMING.
THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON WHY DVLPMNT WONT CONTINUE. HRRR HAS BEEN
PERFORMING RATHER WELL THUS FAR TDA. IT SUGGESTS THAT PCPN WL CONT
TO FILL IN AS AREA HEADS TWD I-95 BY 20-22Z. FCST IS BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO.

THERES ENUF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR. THUS FAR
THATS FAILED TO HPPN...LKLY DUE TO WK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. IF WE
CAN OVERCOME THE ISSUES IN THE MID LVLS...THEN THE MOST LKLY
THREAT WUD COME FROM WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...PWAT NEAR 2
INCHES WUD SUPPORT HVY RAINERS.

THE TAIL OF A PVA LOBE WL CROSS THE AREA BTWN 00-06Z. HV HELD ONTO
LKLY OR HIER POPS ALL AREAS XCPT FOR CHO-EZF-NHK DUE TO THIS ADDED
SUPPORT. ONCE WE GET TOO MUCH LATER THAN THAT...WE WL LOSE OUR
HEATING...AND XPCT A DOWNWARD TREND TO THE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WL STILL HV LEE TROF AND AN UNSTBL AMS MON. HWVR...FORCING FOR
PCPN WL BE LACKING. STILL XPCT SCT STORM DVLPMNT DURING THE
MIDDAY...WHICH WL BE DROPPING INTO THE LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN.

THE RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-
EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S
FOR THE AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE
U60S/L70S - ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH PVA IS WEAK...
STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACRS THE TERMINALS TAFTN. SCTD-NMRS SHRA/TSRA HV DVLPD E
OF MRB BUT W OF THE REST OF THE AIRFIELDS. DUE TO XPCTD CVRG AND
TRACKABLE FEATURES...TAFS NOW HV EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION. IN
ADDITION...HV TEMPO FOR MOST LKLY TIME FRAME...22Z-02Z. HV MVFR
VSBY AND G30 KT. IF FULL CNVCTV DVLPMNT REALIZED AND AN AIRFIELD
TAKES A DIRECT HIT...IFR FLGT CONDS AND HIER GUSTS PSBL.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. MDL SNDGS DEPICT G20 KT
PSBL TAFTN...WHICH BEING FULLY REALIZED ATTM. HV RAISED SCA INTO
THE EVNG ALL WATERS. SLY FLOW PTTN CONTS INTO MON...BUT WNDS SHUD
BE LIGHTER.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
STILL HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 STILL ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE
NORMAL. A GOOD SLY FLOW CONTS ON THE WATERS...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
DEPARTURES TO DECREASE MUCH TNGT. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...
ANNAPOLIS WL EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA...AND SVRL OTHER SITES WL REACH
CAUTION STAGE. HV ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD ADVY FOR AA COUNTY...AND
MONITOR THE REST.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MDZ014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-536>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ534-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/GMS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MRNG. THE ERN SEABOARD
W/IN WARM/HUMID S/SWLY FLOW...AHD OF A CDFNT ACRS SRN CNDA.
STLT/WATER VAPOR IMGRY DEPICT A STREAM OF MSTR AHD OF THE
CDFNT...EMINATING FM THE GLFMEX UP ALONG THE APLCHNS TO THE UPR
OHVLY/ERN GRTLKS. PWAT W/IN THIS ZONE AOA 2 INCHES.

MRNG LWX RAOB DEPICTS AN INVSN ARND H9...BUT A VERY UNSTBL
ENVIRONMENT ABV THAT. DAYTIME HEATING SHUD BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
INVSN...BUT WL AT LEAST HOLD THINGS IN CHECK FOR A LTL WHILE. A
PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BKN OFF FM MAIN STREAM...PROVIDING SHRA TO THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS WL MAKE IT TO THE
CATOCTINS BEFORE DSPTG...LKLY A RESULT OF THE INVSN. WHILE FULL
SUN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...ADVANCING CLDCVR LKLY WL KEEP MAXT LWR
THAN THAT. UPDTD TEMPS TO LTST LAMP SINCE POTL CERTAINLY THERE FOR
TEMPS HIER THAN MID-UPR 80S.

USING A TEMP OF 90F AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR 70S...SHUD HV 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE BY LT DAY. BUT...FORCING WL COME IN THE WAY OF PVA/MID
LVL 20-30 KT FLOW...AND THAT WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 18Z FOR THE
MTNS...AND CLSR TO 00Z FOR THE CSTL PLAIN. ALSO NEED TO BE MINDFUL
OF THE DIFF HTG BNDRY...WHICH CUD BE ANTHR SOURCE OF INITIATION.
CERTAINLY HV THE DOWNDRAFT POTL FOR STRONG STORMS TDA...BUT DONT
THINK WE/LL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE FULL POTL. CANNOT RULE OUT LCL WET
MICROBURSTS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE.

AMPLE MSTR WL ALSO LEAD TO HVY RAINERS...THE OTHER THREAT THIS PM.
RAFL RATES WL BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO A LCL FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
SPCLY UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS HV CLRD ACRS THE TERMINALS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
XPCTD TO DVLP LATER TDA INTO THIS EVNG. LCL IFR PSBL. SCT NATURE
OF THE THREAT LENDS TO VCTS IN TAF ATTM. MORE SPECIFIC
RESTRICTIONS WL BE PLACED INTO FCST WHEN/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. GUSTS TAFTN WL APPROACH SCA
LIMITS. AM CONSIDERING POSTING ADVY FOR THE AFTN-EVNG. FLOW PTTN
CONTS INTO MON.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL NOT CAUSE
ISSUES...ALTHOUGH ITS MIGHTY CLOSE TO ADVY AT ANNAPOLIS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY THRU THE DAY. THE PM TIDE IS THE HIGHER ONE
ASTRONOMICALLY...SO WL NEED TO CONSIDER ADVYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 311418
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS THIS MRNG. THE ERN SEABOARD
W/IN WARM/HUMID S/SWLY FLOW...AHD OF A CDFNT ACRS SRN CNDA.
STLT/WATER VAPOR IMGRY DEPICT A STREAM OF MSTR AHD OF THE
CDFNT...EMINATING FM THE GLFMEX UP ALONG THE APLCHNS TO THE UPR
OHVLY/ERN GRTLKS. PWAT W/IN THIS ZONE AOA 2 INCHES.

MRNG LWX RAOB DEPICTS AN INVSN ARND H9...BUT A VERY UNSTBL
ENVIRONMENT ABV THAT. DAYTIME HEATING SHUD BE ABLE TO ERODE THE
INVSN...BUT WL AT LEAST HOLD THINGS IN CHECK FOR A LTL WHILE. A
PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BKN OFF FM MAIN STREAM...PROVIDING SHRA TO THE
PTMC HIGHLANDS. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THIS WL MAKE IT TO THE
CATOCTINS BEFORE DSPTG...LKLY A RESULT OF THE INVSN. WHILE FULL
SUN TEMPS IN THE MID 90S...ADVANCING CLDCVR LKLY WL KEEP MAXT LWR
THAN THAT. UPDTD TEMPS TO LTST LAMP SINCE POTL CERTAINLY THERE FOR
TEMPS HIER THAN MID-UPR 80S.

USING A TEMP OF 90F AND DEWPTS IN THE LWR 70S...SHUD HV 2000-2500
J/KG CAPE BY LT DAY. BUT...FORCING WL COME IN THE WAY OF PVA/MID
LVL 20-30 KT FLOW...AND THAT WL HOLD OFF TIL AFTR 18Z FOR THE
MTNS...AND CLSR TO 00Z FOR THE CSTL PLAIN. ALSO NEED TO BE MINDFUL
OF THE DIFF HTG BNDRY...WHICH CUD BE ANTHR SOURCE OF INITIATION.
CERTAINLY HV THE DOWNDRAFT POTL FOR STRONG STORMS TDA...BUT DONT
THINK WE/LL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE FULL POTL. CANNOT RULE OUT LCL WET
MICROBURSTS...BUT BELIEVE THEY WL BE HIT-OR-MISS IN NATURE.

AMPLE MSTR WL ALSO LEAD TO HVY RAINERS...THE OTHER THREAT THIS PM.
RAFL RATES WL BE SUFFICIENT TO LEAD TO A LCL FLASH FLOOD THREAT...
SPCLY UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG FLGT RESTRICTIONS HV CLRD ACRS THE TERMINALS. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
XPCTD TO DVLP LATER TDA INTO THIS EVNG. LCL IFR PSBL. SCT NATURE
OF THE THREAT LENDS TO VCTS IN TAF ATTM. MORE SPECIFIC
RESTRICTIONS WL BE PLACED INTO FCST WHEN/WHERE APPROPRIATE.

SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS
AS WELL THRU MON EVE.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA SUN-MON. GUSTS TAFTN WL APPROACH SCA
LIMITS. AM CONSIDERING POSTING ADVY FOR THE AFTN-EVNG. FLOW PTTN
CONTS INTO MON.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES ON THE UPR TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MOST OF THE BAY
HOVERING AROUND 1 FT. LWTV2/SLIM2 ONLY 3/4 FT ABOVE NORMAL. BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL NOT CAUSE
ISSUES...ALTHOUGH ITS MIGHTY CLOSE TO ADVY AT ANNAPOLIS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY THRU THE DAY. THE PM TIDE IS THE HIGHER ONE
ASTRONOMICALLY...SO WL NEED TO CONSIDER ADVYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...HTS/GMS/BAJ
MARINE...HTS/GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 310800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS W/ EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN LINKS UP FROM THE
FL GULF COAST TO LAKE ERIE...JUST TO OUR WEST. THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES CREATING THIS LARGER ARRANGEMENT OF ACTIVITY IS A COMPLEX
COMBINATION OF WEAK KINKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE PARENT
FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE KICKER THAT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PULLING THE MOISTURE AXIS UP AND OVER A
COMPACT BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BE EVENTUALLY SUPPLYING OUR AREA - AND MUCH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH...W/ PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM/HUMID TEMPS TO
START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPT.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS LEVEL
OFF AROUND THEIR HIGHEST POINTS IN THE L70S...W/ TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE THESE VALUES. THIS IS CREATING A HUMID ENVIRONMENT EVEN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...W/ THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER INSULATING THIS
HIGH-HUMIDITY LAYER. THIS IS THE TYPE OF FEEL TO THE AIR WE WILL
HAVE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ESPEC THE FIRST HALF. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY/STEADILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S HEADING INTO THE MID
MRNG HRS TODAY. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE POTENTIAL HIGHS - ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN/NRN
HALVES OF THE CWA. ALONG AND SE OF I-95...THE MAX EXPECTED HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90 DEG WILL PROBABLY BE MET W/ LONGER PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

MUCH OF THE INCOMING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT APPROACHES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APLCNS BY DAWN.
INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL SKIRT THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. TOWARD THE EARLY AFTN HRS...WEAK LEE
TROUGHING COULD HELP DEVELOP POCKETS OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG
AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APLCNS BUT VERY LOCALIZED. MORE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS.

REORGANIZATION OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
TOWARD THE LATE AFTN/EVE OVER THE DC/BALT I-95 CORRIDOR AND NE...
EITHER W/ DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND/OR A LOCALIZED LEE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING THRU THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE PLENTY HIGH TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION W/
TEMPS IN THE M-U80S. MLCAPE WILL HOVER AROUND 1000J/KG...W/
LOCALLY HIGHER AND SOME BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-30KT RANGE NEAR THIS
REGION. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE W/ THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ROTATION EMBEDDED W/IN A LINEAR COMPLEX.
PWATS HOVERING IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ALSO GIVE
LOCALIZED AREAS THE HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR FLOODING UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ARE
ALREADY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS...ESPEC NEAR THE MD
CHES BAY. OTHER POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
DOTTING THE MAP ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
REGION THRU MID MRNG. SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE
AND WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LOCALIZED. SLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS AS WELL THRU
MON EVE.


BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE AROUND 1 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BWI AIRPORT HAS NOT HIT 90F THIS MONTH. UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST AUGUST SINCE 1984 THAT BALTIMORE DID
NOT HIT 90F. THE ONLY OTHER SUCH YEAR IN THE BALTIMORE TEMPERATURE
RECORD IS 1904.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE
CLIMATE...BAJ









000
FXUS61 KLWX 310800
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS W/ EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN LINKS UP FROM THE
FL GULF COAST TO LAKE ERIE...JUST TO OUR WEST. THE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES CREATING THIS LARGER ARRANGEMENT OF ACTIVITY IS A COMPLEX
COMBINATION OF WEAK KINKS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE PARENT
FEATURE IS AN OPEN WAVE KICKER THAT IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT LAKES REGION...PULLING THE MOISTURE AXIS UP AND OVER A
COMPACT BUT STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BE EVENTUALLY SUPPLYING OUR AREA - AND MUCH OF THE DEEP
SOUTH...W/ PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY WARM/HUMID TEMPS TO
START OFF THE MONTH OF SEPT.

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS LEVEL
OFF AROUND THEIR HIGHEST POINTS IN THE L70S...W/ TEMPS AT OR JUST
ABOVE THESE VALUES. THIS IS CREATING A HUMID ENVIRONMENT EVEN IN
THE OVERNIGHT HRS...W/ THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER INSULATING THIS
HIGH-HUMIDITY LAYER. THIS IS THE TYPE OF FEEL TO THE AIR WE WILL
HAVE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ESPEC THE FIRST HALF. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY/STEADILY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S HEADING INTO THE MID
MRNG HRS TODAY. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE POTENTIAL HIGHS - ESPEC ACROSS THE WRN/NRN
HALVES OF THE CWA. ALONG AND SE OF I-95...THE MAX EXPECTED HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90 DEG WILL PROBABLY BE MET W/ LONGER PERIODS OF
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.

MUCH OF THE INCOMING SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT APPROACHES THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APLCNS BY DAWN.
INTO THE POST-DAWN HRS...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL SKIRT THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. TOWARD THE EARLY AFTN HRS...WEAK LEE
TROUGHING COULD HELP DEVELOP POCKETS OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG
AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE/APLCNS BUT VERY LOCALIZED. MORE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS.

REORGANIZATION OF THE BEST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
TOWARD THE LATE AFTN/EVE OVER THE DC/BALT I-95 CORRIDOR AND NE...
EITHER W/ DIFF HEATING BOUNDARIES AND/OR A LOCALIZED LEE TROUGH
AXIS SLIDING THRU THE NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE PLENTY HIGH TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION W/
TEMPS IN THE M-U80S. MLCAPE WILL HOVER AROUND 1000J/KG...W/
LOCALLY HIGHER AND SOME BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-30KT RANGE NEAR THIS
REGION. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE W/ THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY ROTATION EMBEDDED W/IN A LINEAR COMPLEX.
PWATS HOVERING IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL ALSO GIVE
LOCALIZED AREAS THE HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR FLOODING UNDER TRAINING CELLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE EVE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OFF AND MOVED EAST...
ANOTHER REGIONAL BATCH OF LIGHT/MOD RANGE IS TAGGED BY NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE AS MOVING ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AS WELL - KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES ALIVE INTO EARLY MON. AS THE BACK END OF THIS
FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE THRU MON AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA
BUT MAINLY OF A LIGHT/SCTD NATURE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW TSTMS. THE
RELATIVE LACK OF ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE U80S AND SOME L90S FOR THE
AREA ON MON AFTN...W/ DEWPOINTS STANDING PAT IN THE U60S/L70S -
ANOTHER MUGGY DAY FOR THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGING CROSSES THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MAKING FOR A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR 12-18 HRS. WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE...EXPECT TUESDAY TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE DAY SINCE JULY. MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AND CROSSES THAT NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY FROM THE HOT DAY...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULAR FOR WRN ZONES THAT ARE PROGGED TO GET
THE EVENING ACTIVITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND WITH CONTINENTAL AIR (NOT CANADIAN)
SO TEMPERATURE REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AND ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE HERE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ARE
ALREADY HELPING TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS...ESPEC NEAR THE MD
CHES BAY. OTHER POCKETS OF HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE
DOTTING THE MAP ACROSS INLAND AREAS AS WELL...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
REGION THRU MID MRNG. SCTD SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE POSSIBLE
AND WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTN/EVE BUT LOCALIZED. SLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO MON...ALONG W/ A FEW HIT/MISS SHOWERS AS WELL THRU
MON EVE.


BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE/VFR TUESDAY ON A HOT DAY (MAX TEMPS IN THE MID
90S). SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE/VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

SUB SCA SWLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
BRINGS WLY FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE AROUND 1 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BWI AIRPORT HAS NOT HIT 90F THIS MONTH. UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST AUGUST SINCE 1984 THAT BALTIMORE DID
NOT HIT 90F. THE ONLY OTHER SUCH YEAR IN THE BALTIMORE TEMPERATURE
RECORD IS 1904.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...GMS
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...GMS/BAJ
MARINE...GMS/BAJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GMS/LEE
CLIMATE...BAJ








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310531 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...CANCELLED SCA FOR THE LOWER MAIN STEM ZONES OF THE MD
BAY.

PREV DISC...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...LEE/HTS/CEM










000
FXUS61 KLWX 310531 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
131 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...CANCELLED SCA FOR THE LOWER MAIN STEM ZONES OF THE MD
BAY.

PREV DISC...
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. MARINE OBS IN THE
LOW-MID TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...LEE/HTS/CEM









000
FXUS61 KLWX 310116
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 01Z KLWX RADAR SHOWING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATING. ONE AREA
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR WAYNESBORO.
THIS TOO APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. SCA IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR BAY SANDY PT-SMITH PT AS INDICATED BY 01Z MARINE OBS
OF UPPER TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. BARELY MADE
IT TO 2.4 FT AT 0030Z...SO MISSED A MINOR THIS EVENING.  THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/LEE
MARINE...HTS/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/LEE








000
FXUS61 KLWX 310116
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 01Z KLWX RADAR SHOWING THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSED
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS EARLIER THIS EVENING DISSIPATING. ONE AREA
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE NEAR WAYNESBORO.
THIS TOO APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE TN VALLEY CONTINUES TO STREAM
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS...WILL SEE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING...PREDOMINANTLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AT
01Z...ALREADY SEEING LOW SFC TEMP/DWPT SPREADS AT STAFFORD AND
WARRENTON AND MIST FORMING. BOTH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS VSBYS
LOWERING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL START OUT WITH LINGERING PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING...THEN REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE 18Z GFS HAS A STREAK OF
PRECIP WATER GREAT THAN 2.25" ACROSS OUR CWA AS A POTENT H5 VORT
TRACKS FROM SW. THIS WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS DEVELOPING
BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT
THERE IS DECENT 20-30 KTS IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WHICH WILL
KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MVFR FOG RETURN AFTER
RAINFALL...THEN MON TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA.
CVRG SHUD BE LESS THAN SUN. TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. SCA IN EFFECT
OVERNIGHT FOR BAY SANDY PT-SMITH PT AS INDICATED BY 01Z MARINE OBS
OF UPPER TEEN GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT
THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD
PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES AT ANNAPOLIS ARE ABOUT 0.9 FEET...AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. BARELY MADE
IT TO 2.4 FT AT 0030Z...SO MISSED A MINOR THIS EVENING.  THE NEXT
HIGH TIDE SUN MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING. NONETHELESS...THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND WITH
NEW MOON AND SOUTHERLIES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...CEM
AVIATION...HTS/LEE
MARINE...HTS/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/LEE









000
FXUS61 KLWX 301845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF ACK TAFTN. HWVR...MRNG CLDS BROUGHT ONSHORE
ARND PERIPHERY OF HIGH HV HELD TOUGH ALONG AND E OF BLURDG...
TRAPPED UNDER H8 RDGG. LTST VSBL SATPIX DEPICT SOME CLRG ALONG
I-95. W OF THERE...IN THE LEE OF THE RDGS...A BKN TO ALMOST OVC
LYR OF CLDS REMAIN. TRENDS...AND LAV...SUGGEST THAT CLRG WL COME
DURING THE AFTN. OBVIOUSLY...THIS HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN. BUT WUD
XPCT A RAPID WARM UP ONCE INSOLATION APPEARS...AS THERES PLENTY OF
SNDG SUPPORT FOR IT.

MEANWHILE...AMPLE SUN IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS HV LED TO DIURNAL CU.
LTST MESO GDNC RUNS STILL SUGGEST PCPN WL DVLP THERE...MID AFTN
INTO ELY EVNG. HWVR...SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR THESE CELLS TO EMERGE
FM THE MTNS WL BE LACKING. HV OPTED TO SCALE BACK POPS OKV-MRB-
HGR. THE REST OF THE CWFA WL BE RAIN FREE THRU THE EVNG.

DP SWLY FLOW TNGT WL BRING THE HUMIDITY. THINK THAT/LL SUPPORT
PLENTY OF CLDS OVNGT. THE ADDED CLDCVR AND DEWPTS UP NEAR 70F
SUGGEST THAT WARMER MIN-T GDNC THE WAY TO GO. ALSO CANT RULE OUT
PATCHY FOG AS WE/LL BE QUITE SATD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS STILL HOLDING ON...AS MSTR TRAPPED BLO H8 INVRSN. AM
STILL HOPEFUL THAT RESTRICTIONS WL CLR BY MID AFTN.

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...
MON...TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA. CVRG SHUD BE
LESS THAN SUN.
TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...
INCRSD SPDS IN THE AFTN-EVE. SCA IN EFFECT LT TAFTN-TNGT FOR BAY
SANDY PT-SMITH PT DUE TO POTL OF 20 KT GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR
SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD.
IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES JUMPED UP YDA AFTN-EVNG. DEPARTURES HV BEEN
FAIRLY STEADY BTWN A 1/2 FT AND 1 FT ABV NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE /OVNGT INTO SUN MRNG/ WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. GDNC RIGHT NOW MAKING FOR A CLOSE CALL AT
ANNAPOLIS...BUT SUSPECT ITS OVERDONE BY A FEW INCHES. NONETHELESS...
THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MEADOWS
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 301845
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIPRES REMAINS OFF ACK TAFTN. HWVR...MRNG CLDS BROUGHT ONSHORE
ARND PERIPHERY OF HIGH HV HELD TOUGH ALONG AND E OF BLURDG...
TRAPPED UNDER H8 RDGG. LTST VSBL SATPIX DEPICT SOME CLRG ALONG
I-95. W OF THERE...IN THE LEE OF THE RDGS...A BKN TO ALMOST OVC
LYR OF CLDS REMAIN. TRENDS...AND LAV...SUGGEST THAT CLRG WL COME
DURING THE AFTN. OBVIOUSLY...THIS HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN. BUT WUD
XPCT A RAPID WARM UP ONCE INSOLATION APPEARS...AS THERES PLENTY OF
SNDG SUPPORT FOR IT.

MEANWHILE...AMPLE SUN IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS HV LED TO DIURNAL CU.
LTST MESO GDNC RUNS STILL SUGGEST PCPN WL DVLP THERE...MID AFTN
INTO ELY EVNG. HWVR...SUPPORT TO ALLOW FOR THESE CELLS TO EMERGE
FM THE MTNS WL BE LACKING. HV OPTED TO SCALE BACK POPS OKV-MRB-
HGR. THE REST OF THE CWFA WL BE RAIN FREE THRU THE EVNG.

DP SWLY FLOW TNGT WL BRING THE HUMIDITY. THINK THAT/LL SUPPORT
PLENTY OF CLDS OVNGT. THE ADDED CLDCVR AND DEWPTS UP NEAR 70F
SUGGEST THAT WARMER MIN-T GDNC THE WAY TO GO. ALSO CANT RULE OUT
PATCHY FOG AS WE/LL BE QUITE SATD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

CWFA WL BE W/IN SWLY FLOW FOR THE FRIST PARTS OF THE WK. HWVR THE
FLOW WL BECOME A BIT MORE WLY MON...AND SPCLY TUE. THE PLUME OF
MSTR EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMGRY WL BE RUNNING ATOP THE RDG.

LTST GDNC SUGGESTING THAT THE SETUP WONT BE QUITE AS IDEAL AS
PRVS CYCLES. THATS NOT TO SAY THERE WONT BE A MOIST/UNSTBL AMS.
BUT THTE RDG/ADVTN AS WELL AS PVA DURING THE AFTN WL BE BETTER IN
THE MTNS AND PTS WEST. STILL WL HV A CORRIDOR OF PWAT AOA 2
INCHES...BUT THERE/S NOT AS MUCH TO ORGANIZE/FORCE THE PCPN. AND
IN THE SERN CWFA...RDGG WL ACTUALLY SURPRESS IT. HV THEREFORE
BACKED OFF ON POPS SUN...STILL FOCUSING ON THE AFTN-EVE HRS. LKLY
POPS WONT APPEAR TIL EVNG...WHEN LIFT ARRIVES. NOCTURNAL STABILITY
WL ALLOW PVA TO SNEAK THRU OVNGT.

AM FCSTG A GOOD DEAL OF CLDCVR SUN...WHICH SHUD ONCE AGN IMPEDE
STRONG WARMING. HV SHADED DOWN MAXT A DEGF OR TWO.

WHILE THERE WL BE A SHARP LEE TROF MON...ALL OTHER FEATURES APPEAR
TO BE EITHER WEAK OR SUBTLE. WLY FLOW WL PROVIDE A LTL BIT OF
DRYING...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN PROGGED PWAT VALUES. THE IMPACT IS
EVIDENT IN POP VALUES...WHICH ARE LWR THAN SUN. THAT SEEMS QUITE
RESONABLE. AM GNLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE...AND AM KEEPING A DRY
FCST IN CENTRL VA. WHATEVER TSRA THAT DO DVLP SHUD MV TO THE ERN
SHORE BY NIGHTFALL...AND HV A DRY FCST FOR MON NGT-- WHICH LARGELY
WL CONT INTO TUE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

THINK THAT THE BEST CHC AT A 90 DEG DAY WL COME ON TUE...AS WLY
FLOW WL KEEP POPS LOW AND PROVIDE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HV LWRD
MON MAXT BY A CPL...AND RAISED TUE MAXT ALSO BY A CPL. MIN-T FCSTS
ON TRACK...IN STEP W/ PROGGED DEWPTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
AND DRAG A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 500MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
ENTER NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BAND OF MOISTURE...PVA...AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE DUE TO THE RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH AND PVA OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS STILL HOLDING ON...AS MSTR TRAPPED BLO H8 INVRSN. AM
STILL HOPEFUL THAT RESTRICTIONS WL CLR BY MID AFTN.

SLY FLOW WL PROVIDE INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY. THEREFORE...
OVERNIGHT FOG SHUD BE AN ISSUE. FLLWG CLIMO BY KEEPING DCA AT VFR.
OTRW...HV MVRG VSBYS ACRS THE BOARD PRE-DAWN. IFR A PSBLTY...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE TOO MUCH HIER LVL CLDCVR FOR THICKER FOG TO DVLP.

ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS CLR...ATM WL BE UNSTBL FOR SCT TSRA TO
DVLP. CUD HV LCL IFR IN HVR RAINERS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN A SPOT
FCST PRECLUDE A TAF INCLUSION.

OUTLOOK...
MON...TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH SCT TSRA. CVRG SHUD BE
LESS THAN SUN.
TUE-THU...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...
INCRSD SPDS IN THE AFTN-EVE. SCA IN EFFECT LT TAFTN-TNGT FOR BAY
SANDY PT-SMITH PT DUE TO POTL OF 20 KT GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR
SITUATION SUNDAY...THO DONT THINK THE MIXING WL BE QUITE AS GOOD.
IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD PROVIDE STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. SETUP WUD SUPPORT PDS OF SLY CHANNELING...BUT
GDNC NOT PICKING UP ON ANY JUST YET. WK CDFNT LT TUE/ELY WED...
MARKED BY A SLGT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION FM SW TO NW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES JUMPED UP YDA AFTN-EVNG. DEPARTURES HV BEEN
FAIRLY STEADY BTWN A 1/2 FT AND 1 FT ABV NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SLY...SO ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE /OVNGT INTO SUN MRNG/ WL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. GDNC RIGHT NOW MAKING FOR A CLOSE CALL AT
ANNAPOLIS...BUT SUSPECT ITS OVERDONE BY A FEW INCHES. NONETHELESS...
THIS WL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...MEADOWS
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 301346
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES OFF ACK THIS MRNG. SLY FLOW ACRS THE MID ATLC...WHICH
WL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW ARND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH HAS BROUGHT LOW DECK CLDS TO POINTS ALONG/E OF THE BLURDG.
FCST CHALLENGE WL REVOLVE ARND WHEN THESE CLDS SCT OUT. LWX 12Z
RAOB DEPICTS A STBL/CAPPED ATM. MEANWHILE...PBZ RAOB CONTAINS SOME
INSTBY ABV SFC INVSN.

INSOLATION ACRS THE MTNS...AIDED BY A WK SFC WMFNT...WL BE THE
SOURCES FOR CNVCTV INITIATION TAFTN. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENUF
TO KEEP 20-30 POPS FOR TRRN CIRCULATIONS. THINK THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WMFNT WL BE MORE TWD A RIBBON OF BKN CLDS. IN THE EAST...THAT/LL
BE A PD OF CLDS REPLACING THE CURRENT CLDS. MAXT WL BE KEPT
LWR...AND PCPN SHUDNT BE A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT/LL BE A WARMER AND MORE HUMID NGT TNGT AS SWLY FLOW BECOMES
MORE ENTRENCHED ACRS AREA. FED BY THIS WARMTH/INSTBY...TSRA MAY
ATTEMPT TO EMERGE OFF MTNS TWD EVNG...BUT WL BE FIGHTING THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HV LEADING EDGE /SCHC/ TO CATOCTINS-
CENTRL SHEN VLY. IT SHUD REMAIN RAIN-FREE EAST OF THERE. HV
DECREASING TRENDS AFTR MIDNGT.

SUNDAY FEATURES THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
RIGHT NOW. LEE TROF IN PLACE...WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING IN...HI TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...SOME WEAK JET DIVERGENCE AT HIGHER
LEVELS...ALL OF THESE ARE INGREDIENTS FOR SOME STORMS. THE MOST
DISTURBING PARAMETER IS THE GFS FORECASTING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
BE OVER 2 INCHES OVER A WIDE AREA. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH WIND IN
THE ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP STORMS MOVING...COULD BE ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH THAT MUCH MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS
FALL...LEE TROF SLACKENS...AND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT. FOR THESE
REASONS EXPECT LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS MONDAY THAN SUNDAY FOR ANY
ONE SPOT. STILL SCT STORMS EXPECTED THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ELEVATED HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN HEADING INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE HOVERING AROUND THE 70F
DEG MARK...WHICH IS PLENTY HUMID IN COMBINATION W/ DAILY HIGHS
POKING ABOVE 90F DEG. FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...A POTENT AND LARGE-
SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER
MIDWEST. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH...PULLING UP INTO
THE SRN HUDSON BAY REGION/QUEBEC. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HEAD DUE EAST...STRADDLING THE US/CANADA BORDER AND TAKING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ALONG W/ IT - WELL TO OUR NORTH TUE INTO WED.

SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE COASTAL ZONES OVER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR FROM LATE MON NIGHT WILL BE DISSIPATING EARLY TUE...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SRN APLCNS. THIS HIGH...IN CONCERT W/
THE OFFSHORE AND LARGER BERMUDA HIGH WILL AGAIN PRESS THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY UP INTO THE MID ATLC. THE RELATIVE LACK OF ORGANIZED
FORCING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TUE WHICH
WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF IN TERMS OF THE HOT CONDITIONS. MORE DRY AND
HOT WEATHER TO CARRY US THRU THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY - ALBEIT ONLY BY COUPLE OF DEG. LATE TUE
EVE...THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CARRY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING PEAK HEATING AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TSTMS...MORE
IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN.

ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY HOLD OUR WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. WHILE
THE COLD FRONT KICKS OFF PRECIP A COUPLE OF STATES TO OUR
SOUTH...THE MID-ATLC WILL BE MAINLY DRY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK UNTIL
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HOLDING ON AT IAD /BORDERLINE...OVC030/ AND CHO
/SOLIDLY...OVC010-015/. CIGS SHUD LIFT WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
SO...FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD EASE AT IAD AOB 16Z AND AOB 18Z AT
CHO.

WITH INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY...OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE AN
INCREASING ISSUE. EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG FOR DULLES AND AREAS WEST
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUN-
MON. ONLY BRIEF AND SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE TUE-
WED...BUT MAINLY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...
INCRSD SPDS IN THE AFTN-EVE. SCA IN EFFECT LT TAFTN-TNGT FOR BAY
SANDY PT-SMITH PT DUE TO POTL OF 20 KT GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR
SITUATION SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD PROVIDE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. ONLY MINOR PERIODS OF SLY CHANNELING AND/OR SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE W/ THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES HV JUMPED UP SINCE YDA...AND NOW ARE HOVERING
BTWN A 1/2 FT AND 1 FT ABV NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SLY...SO
ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. CANNOT DISCOUNT
POSSIBLE ISSUES AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE WKND IS OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/CAS
LONG TERM...CAS/GMS
AVIATION...HTS/CAS/GMS
MARINE...HTS/CAS/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS









000
FXUS61 KLWX 301346
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
946 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIPRES OFF ACK THIS MRNG. SLY FLOW ACRS THE MID ATLC...WHICH
WL PREVAIL THRU THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW ARND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH HAS BROUGHT LOW DECK CLDS TO POINTS ALONG/E OF THE BLURDG.
FCST CHALLENGE WL REVOLVE ARND WHEN THESE CLDS SCT OUT. LWX 12Z
RAOB DEPICTS A STBL/CAPPED ATM. MEANWHILE...PBZ RAOB CONTAINS SOME
INSTBY ABV SFC INVSN.

INSOLATION ACRS THE MTNS...AIDED BY A WK SFC WMFNT...WL BE THE
SOURCES FOR CNVCTV INITIATION TAFTN. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT ENUF
TO KEEP 20-30 POPS FOR TRRN CIRCULATIONS. THINK THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WMFNT WL BE MORE TWD A RIBBON OF BKN CLDS. IN THE EAST...THAT/LL
BE A PD OF CLDS REPLACING THE CURRENT CLDS. MAXT WL BE KEPT
LWR...AND PCPN SHUDNT BE A CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IT/LL BE A WARMER AND MORE HUMID NGT TNGT AS SWLY FLOW BECOMES
MORE ENTRENCHED ACRS AREA. FED BY THIS WARMTH/INSTBY...TSRA MAY
ATTEMPT TO EMERGE OFF MTNS TWD EVNG...BUT WL BE FIGHTING THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HV LEADING EDGE /SCHC/ TO CATOCTINS-
CENTRL SHEN VLY. IT SHUD REMAIN RAIN-FREE EAST OF THERE. HV
DECREASING TRENDS AFTR MIDNGT.

SUNDAY FEATURES THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
RIGHT NOW. LEE TROF IN PLACE...WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING IN...HI TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...SOME WEAK JET DIVERGENCE AT HIGHER
LEVELS...ALL OF THESE ARE INGREDIENTS FOR SOME STORMS. THE MOST
DISTURBING PARAMETER IS THE GFS FORECASTING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
BE OVER 2 INCHES OVER A WIDE AREA. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH WIND IN
THE ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP STORMS MOVING...COULD BE ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH THAT MUCH MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS
FALL...LEE TROF SLACKENS...AND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT. FOR THESE
REASONS EXPECT LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS MONDAY THAN SUNDAY FOR ANY
ONE SPOT. STILL SCT STORMS EXPECTED THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ELEVATED HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN HEADING INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE HOVERING AROUND THE 70F
DEG MARK...WHICH IS PLENTY HUMID IN COMBINATION W/ DAILY HIGHS
POKING ABOVE 90F DEG. FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...A POTENT AND LARGE-
SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER
MIDWEST. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH...PULLING UP INTO
THE SRN HUDSON BAY REGION/QUEBEC. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HEAD DUE EAST...STRADDLING THE US/CANADA BORDER AND TAKING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ALONG W/ IT - WELL TO OUR NORTH TUE INTO WED.

SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE COASTAL ZONES OVER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR FROM LATE MON NIGHT WILL BE DISSIPATING EARLY TUE...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SRN APLCNS. THIS HIGH...IN CONCERT W/
THE OFFSHORE AND LARGER BERMUDA HIGH WILL AGAIN PRESS THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY UP INTO THE MID ATLC. THE RELATIVE LACK OF ORGANIZED
FORCING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TUE WHICH
WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF IN TERMS OF THE HOT CONDITIONS. MORE DRY AND
HOT WEATHER TO CARRY US THRU THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY - ALBEIT ONLY BY COUPLE OF DEG. LATE TUE
EVE...THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CARRY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING PEAK HEATING AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TSTMS...MORE
IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN.

ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY HOLD OUR WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. WHILE
THE COLD FRONT KICKS OFF PRECIP A COUPLE OF STATES TO OUR
SOUTH...THE MID-ATLC WILL BE MAINLY DRY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK UNTIL
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS HOLDING ON AT IAD /BORDERLINE...OVC030/ AND CHO
/SOLIDLY...OVC010-015/. CIGS SHUD LIFT WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
SO...FLGT RESTRICTIONS SHUD EASE AT IAD AOB 16Z AND AOB 18Z AT
CHO.

WITH INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY...OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE AN
INCREASING ISSUE. EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG FOR DULLES AND AREAS WEST
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUN-
MON. ONLY BRIEF AND SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE TUE-
WED...BUT MAINLY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU THE WKND. WITH DIURNAL MIXING...
INCRSD SPDS IN THE AFTN-EVE. SCA IN EFFECT LT TAFTN-TNGT FOR BAY
SANDY PT-SMITH PT DUE TO POTL OF 20 KT GUSTS. IT/LL BE A SIMLR
SITUATION SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...POTL TSRA WUD PROVIDE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. ONLY MINOR PERIODS OF SLY CHANNELING AND/OR SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE W/ THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES HV JUMPED UP SINCE YDA...AND NOW ARE HOVERING
BTWN A 1/2 FT AND 1 FT ABV NORMAL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SLY...SO
ANTICIPATE ADDTL INCREASES THROUGH THE WKND. CANNOT DISCOUNT
POSSIBLE ISSUES AT SENSITIVE LOCATIONS BEFORE THE WKND IS OVER.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ532>534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS/CAS
LONG TERM...CAS/GMS
AVIATION...HTS/CAS/GMS
MARINE...HTS/CAS/GMS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS








000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REBOUNDING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. ANY ISOLATED TSTMS TODAY WILL BE OVER
WEST CENTRAL VA AND EASTERN WV. CLOUD COVER WILL BE TRICKY TODAY
AS THERE IS A DECENT SHIELD OF 5000FT CEILINGS OVER A LARGE PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL PARTLY OR
VARIABLY CLOUDY FOR MOST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

SAT NIGHT HUMIDITY INCREASES...WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
LEE TROF BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF. ALL OF THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE WEST.

SUNDAY FEATURES THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
RIGHT NOW. LEE TROF IN PLACE...WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING IN...HI TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...SOME WEAK JET DIVERGENCE AT HIGHER
LEVELS...ALL OF THESE ARE INGREDIENTS FOR SOME STORMS. THE MOST
DISTURBING PARAMETER IS THE GFS FORECASTING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
BE OVER 2 INCHES OVER A WIDE AREA. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH WIND IN
THE ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP STORMS MOVING...COULD BE ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH THAT MUCH MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS
FALL...LEE TROF SLACKENS...AND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT. FOR THESE
REASONS EXPECT LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS MONDAY THAN SUNDAY FOR ANY
ONE SPOT. STILL SCT STORMS EXPECTED THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ELEVATED HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN HEADING INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE HOVERING AROUND THE 70F
DEG MARK...WHICH IS PLENTY HUMID IN COMBINATION W/ DAILY HIGHS
POKING ABOVE 90F DEG. FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...A POTENT AND LARGE-
SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER
MIDWEST. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH...PULLING UP INTO
THE SRN HUDSON BAY REGION/QUEBEC. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HEAD DUE EAST...STRADDLING THE US/CANADA BORDER AND TAKING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ALONG W/ IT - WELL TO OUR NORTH TUE INTO WED.

SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE COASTAL ZONES OVER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR FROM LATE MON NIGHT WILL BE DISSIPATING EARLY TUE...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SRN APLCNS. THIS HIGH...IN CONCERT W/
THE OFFSHORE AND LARGER BERMUDA HIGH WILL AGAIN PRESS THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY UP INTO THE MID ATLC. THE RELATIVE LACK OF ORGANIZED
FORCING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TUE WHICH
WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF IN TERMS OF THE HOT CONDITIONS. MORE DRY AND
HOT WEATHER TO CARRY US THRU THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY - ALBEIT ONLY BY COUPLE OF DEG. LATE TUE
EVE...THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CARRY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING PEAK HEATING AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TSTMS...MORE
IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN.

ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY HOLD OUR WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. WHILE
THE COLD FRONT KICKS OFF PRECIP A COUPLE OF STATES TO OUR
SOUTH...THE MID-ATLC WILL BE MAINLY DRY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK UNTIL
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WITH INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY...OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE AN
INCREASING ISSUE THRU THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG AT CHO
TONIGHT...THEN 3-5SM FOG FOR DULLES AND AREAS WEST TOMORROW NIGHT.
ALSO TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT/HUMID AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TUE MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH BUT NOT BY MUCH. DAILY HIGHS IN
THE U90S AND DEWPOINTS HAVING HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONLY
BRIEF AND SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE INTO MID NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MD CHES BAY FOR SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUN EVENING. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. ONLY MINOR PERIODS OF SLY CHANNELING AND/OR SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE W/ THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...

WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING S...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM NEW
MOON...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SLOWLY INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALY.
NOT ANY TROUBLE YET...BUT COULD BE IN THE MOST SENSITIVE SPOTS
LIKE ANNAPOLIS WITHIN 24 HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 4 PM SATURDAY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR
         ANZ533-534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CAS/GMS
AVIATION...CAS/GMS
MARINE...CAS/GMS
COASTAL FLOOD...CAS






000
FXUS61 KLWX 300758
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF CAPE COD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME A
BERMUDA HIGH FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE REBOUNDING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE. ANY ISOLATED TSTMS TODAY WILL BE OVER
WEST CENTRAL VA AND EASTERN WV. CLOUD COVER WILL BE TRICKY TODAY
AS THERE IS A DECENT SHIELD OF 5000FT CEILINGS OVER A LARGE PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL PARTLY OR
VARIABLY CLOUDY FOR MOST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

SAT NIGHT HUMIDITY INCREASES...WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
LEE TROF BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF. ALL OF THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE WEST.

SUNDAY FEATURES THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
RIGHT NOW. LEE TROF IN PLACE...WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING IN...HI TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...SOME WEAK JET DIVERGENCE AT HIGHER
LEVELS...ALL OF THESE ARE INGREDIENTS FOR SOME STORMS. THE MOST
DISTURBING PARAMETER IS THE GFS FORECASTING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
BE OVER 2 INCHES OVER A WIDE AREA. WHILE THERE IS ENOUGH WIND IN
THE ATMOSPHERE TO KEEP STORMS MOVING...COULD BE ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH THAT MUCH MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION IN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS
FALL...LEE TROF SLACKENS...AND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT. FOR THESE
REASONS EXPECT LESSER CHANCES OF STORMS MONDAY THAN SUNDAY FOR ANY
ONE SPOT. STILL SCT STORMS EXPECTED THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ELEVATED HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN HEADING INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE HOVERING AROUND THE 70F
DEG MARK...WHICH IS PLENTY HUMID IN COMBINATION W/ DAILY HIGHS
POKING ABOVE 90F DEG. FROM LATE MON INTO TUE...A POTENT AND LARGE-
SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWINGING THRU THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER
MIDWEST. THE PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH...PULLING UP INTO
THE SRN HUDSON BAY REGION/QUEBEC. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
HEAD DUE EAST...STRADDLING THE US/CANADA BORDER AND TAKING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP ALONG W/ IT - WELL TO OUR NORTH TUE INTO WED.

SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS HANGING AROUND THE COASTAL ZONES OVER TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR FROM LATE MON NIGHT WILL BE DISSIPATING EARLY TUE...AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE SRN APLCNS. THIS HIGH...IN CONCERT W/
THE OFFSHORE AND LARGER BERMUDA HIGH WILL AGAIN PRESS THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY UP INTO THE MID ATLC. THE RELATIVE LACK OF ORGANIZED
FORCING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR TUE WHICH
WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF IN TERMS OF THE HOT CONDITIONS. MORE DRY AND
HOT WEATHER TO CARRY US THRU THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY - ALBEIT ONLY BY COUPLE OF DEG. LATE TUE
EVE...THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL
LIKELY CROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CARRY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING PEAK HEATING AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE FOR AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TSTMS...MORE
IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN.

ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY HOLD OUR WARM/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. WHILE
THE COLD FRONT KICKS OFF PRECIP A COUPLE OF STATES TO OUR
SOUTH...THE MID-ATLC WILL BE MAINLY DRY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK UNTIL
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WITH INCREASING LOW LVL HUMIDITY...OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE AN
INCREASING ISSUE THRU THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG AT CHO
TONIGHT...THEN 3-5SM FOG FOR DULLES AND AREAS WEST TOMORROW NIGHT.
ALSO TARGETED IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

HOT/HUMID AIRMASS STAYS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TUE MAY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH BUT NOT BY MUCH. DAILY HIGHS IN
THE U90S AND DEWPOINTS HAVING HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONLY
BRIEF AND SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE INTO MID NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAINLY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MD CHES BAY FOR SMALL
CRAFT GUSTS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUN EVENING. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER WARM/HUMID AIR UP ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD. ONLY MINOR PERIODS OF SLY CHANNELING AND/OR SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY CROSS THE WATERS BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED. A FEW TSTMS
POSSIBLE W/ THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...

WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING S...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM NEW
MOON...CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SLOWLY INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALY.
NOT ANY TROUBLE YET...BUT COULD BE IN THE MOST SENSITIVE SPOTS
LIKE ANNAPOLIS WITHIN 24 HRS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 4 PM SATURDAY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY FOR
         ANZ533-534.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CAS
NEAR TERM...CAS
SHORT TERM...CAS
LONG TERM...CAS/GMS
AVIATION...CAS/GMS
MARINE...CAS/GMS
COASTAL FLOOD...CAS





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