Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KLZK 271953
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  68  83 /  30  40  30  60
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
HARRISON AR       64  81  65  80 /  30  40  40  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  84  69  83 /  30  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  60
MONTICELLO AR     71  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      68  83  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  82  66  81 /  30  40  40  60
NEWPORT AR        68  85  69  84 /  30  40  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     70  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  84  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
SEARCY AR         68  85  68  84 /  30  40  30  60
STUTTGART AR      70  86  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64










000
FXUS64 KLZK 271953
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  68  83 /  30  40  30  60
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
HARRISON AR       64  81  65  80 /  30  40  40  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  84  69  83 /  30  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  60
MONTICELLO AR     71  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      68  83  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  82  66  81 /  30  40  40  60
NEWPORT AR        68  85  69  84 /  30  40  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     70  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  84  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
SEARCY AR         68  85  68  84 /  30  40  30  60
STUTTGART AR      70  86  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64









000
FXUS64 KLZK 271140 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN AT KHOT AND
KADF THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
OVER SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLLQ. CONVECTION WILL
PICK UP A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST TAFS DUE TO
HEATING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ONLY USED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 271140 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN AT KHOT AND
KADF THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
OVER SOUTHERN AR THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KLLQ. CONVECTION WILL
PICK UP A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT MOST TAFS DUE TO
HEATING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ONLY USED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 270843
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270843
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 270843
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 270843
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
343 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKENED AS THEY APPROACHED THE ARKANSAS STATE LINE.
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POP FORECAST IS LOW TODAY...AS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE IS NOT AGREEING ON A FAVORED AREA OF RAINFALL TODAY. OTHER
THAN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS THIS MORNING...HAVE LEFT
GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AS UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TAKES SEVERAL DAYS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS IS USUAL WITH THESE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE WET MAY ALREADY AND THE
SATURATED SOILS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH AR WHILE
FORECAST WILL KEEP A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. LOWEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE SE U.S. BUT
MODELS CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IF THIS FEATURE FORMS AND ITS LOCATION...WILL
KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER AR. GFS HAS THE UPPER FEATURE
MORE OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS IT FARTHER EAST OVER MS TO AL. SO
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 270546 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY PATCHY MVFR MAY BE
SEEN. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW
AR AND SOUTHERN AR...BUT AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST
CONCERNING LOCATION AND COVERAGE. ONLY USED VCSH OR VCTS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64












000
FXUS64 KLZK 270546 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING IN OVER AR. TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY PATCHY MVFR MAY BE
SEEN. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NW
AR AND SOUTHERN AR...BUT AT THIS TIME...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST
CONCERNING LOCATION AND COVERAGE. ONLY USED VCSH OR VCTS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64













000
FXUS64 KLZK 270259 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH/SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT AS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT KHRO AND KLLQ...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG/BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD FORM
TOWARD DAWN.

ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 2500 TO 3500 FEET WILL
BE NOTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH TONIGHT...AND 6 TO 12
MPH ON WEDNESDAY. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  30  40
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  86 /  30  40  30  40
HARRISON AR       62  82  64  83 /  40  40  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  84  68  84 /  30  40  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  84  67  86 /  30  40  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     68  85  69  86 /  20  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      67  83  68  84 /  40  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  40
NEWPORT AR        66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     68  85  68  86 /  20  40  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  82  66  83 /  40  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  30
STUTTGART AR      67  84  68  86 /  20  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64










000
FXUS64 KLZK 261934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  30  40
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  86 /  30  40  30  40
HARRISON AR       62  82  64  83 /  40  40  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  84  68  84 /  30  40  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  84  67  86 /  30  40  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     68  85  69  86 /  20  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      67  83  68  84 /  40  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  40
NEWPORT AR        66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     68  85  68  86 /  20  40  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  82  66  83 /  40  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  30
STUTTGART AR      67  84  68  86 /  20  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MIDWEST TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS OVER ARKANSAS AND
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTH
MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM MOIST
SECTOR. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SHORT TERM AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE BUT THAT DOES NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY. A
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...USHERING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THE WEAKER IMPULSES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
STRONGER NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
OZARKS REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT AND WEAKER SUNDAY IMPULSE BEGIN TO WORK EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  83  65  84 /  30  40  30  40
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  86 /  30  40  30  40
HARRISON AR       62  82  64  83 /  40  40  40  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  84  68  84 /  30  40  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  84  67  86 /  30  40  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     68  85  69  86 /  20  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      67  83  68  84 /  40  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  40
NEWPORT AR        66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     68  85  68  86 /  20  40  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  82  66  83 /  40  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         66  83  66  85 /  30  40  30  30
STUTTGART AR      67  84  68  86 /  20  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 261809 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
109 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE MVFR DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING
BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUCH THAT ONLY
SCT015-025 BASES WILL REMAIN BY 22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
GETS GOING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF PROB30 AT KHRO AND KBPK. THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT
KHOT...KADF...AND POSSIBLY EVEN KLIT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE EVEN A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THOSE
SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT IN MOST AREAS OF ARKANSAS.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLOUDS
DIMINISH...HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  66  83  65 /  20  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         85  69  85  69 /  20  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  62  82  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  68  84  68 /  20  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  68  84  67 /  20  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  68  85  69 /  20  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      83  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  63  82  64 /  20  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  66  83  66 /  20  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     84  68  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  66  82  66 /  20  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  83  66 /  20  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      83  67  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 261809 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
109 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE MVFR DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING
BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SUCH THAT ONLY
SCT015-025 BASES WILL REMAIN BY 22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
GETS GOING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS.
CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF PROB30 AT KHRO AND KBPK. THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY SPREAD FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT
KHOT...KADF...AND POSSIBLY EVEN KLIT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE EVEN A PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT THOSE
SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT IN MOST AREAS OF ARKANSAS.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLOUDS
DIMINISH...HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  66  83  65 /  20  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         85  69  85  69 /  20  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  62  82  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  68  84  68 /  20  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  68  84  67 /  20  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  68  85  69 /  20  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      83  67  83  68 /  20  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  63  82  64 /  20  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  66  83  66 /  20  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     84  68  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  66  82  66 /  20  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  83  66 /  20  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      83  67  84  68 /  20  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261623
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT IN MOST AREAS OF ARKANSAS.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLOUDS
DIMINISH...HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  67  82  65 /  20  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         85  70  85  67 /  20  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  63  81  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  70  85  67 /  20  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  69  85  68 /  20  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  69  86  69 /  20  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      83  68  83  66 /  20  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  64  83  63 /  20  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  68  83  66 /  20  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     84  69  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  67  83  65 /  20  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  84  64 /  20  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      83  69  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 261623
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING SOMEWHAT IN MOST AREAS OF ARKANSAS.
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CLOUDS
DIMINISH...HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  67  82  65 /  20  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         85  70  85  67 /  20  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  63  81  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  70  85  67 /  20  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  69  85  68 /  20  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  69  86  69 /  20  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      83  68  83  66 /  20  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  64  83  63 /  20  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  68  83  66 /  20  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     84  69  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  67  83  65 /  20  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  84  64 /  20  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      83  69  85  68 /  20  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261157
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 261157
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261157
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261157
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
657 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS ACRS THE
AREA. INCRSD MIXING WL ALLOW FOR THESE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR CONDS
BY MIDDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCTD CONVECTION LATER TNGT OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS UP NORTH FOR NOW DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH OVERALL COVERAGE. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 260906
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  67  82  65 /  30  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         86  70  85  67 /  30  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  63  81  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  70  85  67 /  30  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  69  85  68 /  30  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  69  86  69 /  40  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      82  68  83  66 /  30  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  64  83  63 /  30  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  68  83  66 /  30  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     83  69  85  68 /  30  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   82  67  83  65 /  30  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  84  64 /  30  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      84  69  85  68 /  30  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44







000
FXUS64 KLZK 260906
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  67  82  65 /  30  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         86  70  85  67 /  30  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  63  81  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  70  85  67 /  30  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  69  85  68 /  30  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  69  86  69 /  40  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      82  68  83  66 /  30  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  64  83  63 /  30  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  68  83  66 /  30  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     83  69  85  68 /  30  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   82  67  83  65 /  30  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  84  64 /  30  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      84  69  85  68 /  30  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44






000
FXUS64 KLZK 260906
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
406 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONDITIONS TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE
WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS
PART OF THE STATE...HAS NOT SEEN NEARLY AS MUCH RAINFALL AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...AND THEREFORE FEEL CONFIDENT THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED A BIT EARLY.

THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...BUT A
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
TODAY. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...HOWEVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE WEST AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE
STATE.


&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN UPR LVL TROF WL BE SLOLY TRANSLATING EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU
THE PD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCD CDFNT WL APCH AR FM THE NW ON SAT AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE FA SUN AND MON. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE FNTL BNDRY...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...SCTD
SHRA/TSRA WL RMN POSSIBLE THRU THE PD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL WL BE SAT AND SUN...WITH LESSER CHCS ON MON AS THE FNT/UPR
TROF EVENTUALLY WORK TO THE E OF THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     81  67  82  65 /  30  20  40  30
CAMDEN AR         86  70  85  67 /  30  30  40  20
HARRISON AR       79  63  81  64 /  20  30  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    83  70  85  67 /  30  30  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  69  85  68 /  30  30  40  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  69  86  69 /  40  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      82  68  83  66 /  30  40  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  64  83  63 /  30  30  40  30
NEWPORT AR        81  68  83  66 /  30  20  40  30
PINE BLUFF AR     83  69  85  68 /  30  20  40  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   82  67  83  65 /  30  30  40  20
SEARCY AR         82  66  84  64 /  30  20  40  20
STUTTGART AR      84  69  85  68 /  30  20  40  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44







000
FXUS64 KLZK 260600
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF LGT TO MODERATE RAIN WL CONT TO SLOLY TAPER OFF THRU THE
EARLY MRNG HRS. VFR CONDS CURRENTLY NOTED OVR THE FA...BUT DO
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PTCHY BR TO DVLP RESULTING IN MVFR CONDS.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS AS SFC WINDS TURN
MORE W/SWLY. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A 500 MB OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEVERE CONVECTION FROM TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE 06Z...
THOUGH NOT NON-EXISTENT AFTERWARD.

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE SOUNDING DATA SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALL
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES.
AND...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND IN PLACES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FIRE DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW.

ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS UPPER FLOW WAVERS BETWEEN QUASI-ZONAL AND
SOUTHWESTERLY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND STALL THERE UNTIL MOVING
EAST ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING OVER
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 260600
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...26/06Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF LGT TO MODERATE RAIN WL CONT TO SLOLY TAPER OFF THRU THE
EARLY MRNG HRS. VFR CONDS CURRENTLY NOTED OVR THE FA...BUT DO
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PTCHY BR TO DVLP RESULTING IN MVFR CONDS.
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY THE MID TO LATE MRNG HRS AS SFC WINDS TURN
MORE W/SWLY. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A 500 MB OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEVERE CONVECTION FROM TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE 06Z...
THOUGH NOT NON-EXISTENT AFTERWARD.

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE SOUNDING DATA SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALL
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES.
AND...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND IN PLACES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FIRE DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW.

ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS UPPER FLOW WAVERS BETWEEN QUASI-ZONAL AND
SOUTHWESTERLY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND STALL THERE UNTIL MOVING
EAST ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING OVER
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251950
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A 500 MB OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEVERE CONVECTION FROM TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE 06Z...
THOUGH NOT NON-EXISTENT AFTERWARD.

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE SOUNDING DATA SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALL
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES.
AND...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND IN PLACES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FIRE DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW.

ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS UPPER FLOW WAVERS BETWEEN QUASI-ZONAL AND
SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND STALL THERE UNTIL MOVING
EAST ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING OVER
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  79  66  83 /  80  70  30  40
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  90  50  40  40
HARRISON AR       64  79  63  80 /  80  30  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  83  68  84 /  90  40  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  82  69  85 /  90  50  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     70  82  69  85 /  90  80  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      67  81  67  83 /  90  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  80  65  81 /  80  50  30  40
NEWPORT AR        69  79  67  83 /  80  80  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     69  82  69  85 /  90  60  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  82  67  84 /  90  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         68  81  67  84 /  80  60  30  40
STUTTGART AR      69  81  68  84 /  80  70  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 251950
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A 500 MB OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEVERE CONVECTION FROM TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH BACKING WINDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE 06Z...
THOUGH NOT NON-EXISTENT AFTERWARD.

HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
WHILE SOUNDING DATA SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALL
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP AS THE CONVECTION APPROACHES.
AND...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SATURATED GROUND IN PLACES...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY FIRE DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE EAST AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW.

ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...AS UPPER FLOW WAVERS BETWEEN QUASI-ZONAL AND
SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL DRIFT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND STALL THERE UNTIL MOVING
EAST ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING OVER
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  79  66  83 /  80  70  30  40
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  90  50  40  40
HARRISON AR       64  79  63  80 /  80  30  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  83  68  84 /  90  40  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  82  69  85 /  90  50  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     70  82  69  85 /  90  80  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      67  81  67  83 /  90  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  80  65  81 /  80  50  30  40
NEWPORT AR        69  79  67  83 /  80  80  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     69  82  69  85 /  90  60  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  82  67  84 /  90  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         68  81  67  84 /  80  60  30  40
STUTTGART AR      69  81  68  84 /  80  70  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251750
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ARKANSAS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF TEXAS...SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
EVENING AND SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR THIS EVENING AND WILL AT TIMES BE IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  80  66  82 /  80  70  20  40
CAMDEN AR         68  85  69  87 /  90  50  30  40
HARRISON AR       62  80  63  81 /  80  30  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  83  69  85 /  90  40  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  84  68  86 /  90  50  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     68  83  68  86 /  90  80  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      64  82  67  84 /  90  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  81  64  83 /  80  50  30  40
NEWPORT AR        67  80  67  83 /  80  80  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     68  82  68  85 /  90  60  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  83  66  85 /  80  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         65  81  65  84 /  80  60  30  40
STUTTGART AR      66  83  68  84 /  80  70  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251750
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ARKANSAS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF TEXAS...SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
EVENING AND SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR THIS EVENING AND WILL AT TIMES BE IFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  80  66  82 /  80  70  20  40
CAMDEN AR         68  85  69  87 /  90  50  30  40
HARRISON AR       62  80  63  81 /  80  30  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  83  69  85 /  90  40  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  84  68  86 /  90  50  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     68  83  68  86 /  90  80  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      64  82  67  84 /  90  40  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  81  64  83 /  80  50  30  40
NEWPORT AR        67  80  67  83 /  80  80  20  40
PINE BLUFF AR     68  82  68  85 /  90  60  30  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  83  66  85 /  80  40  40  40
SEARCY AR         65  81  65  84 /  80  60  30  40
STUTTGART AR      66  83  68  84 /  80  70  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251151
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251151
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251151
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251151
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...25/12Z TAF CYCLE

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST THIS MRNG...RESULTING IN MVFR/OCNL
IFR CIGS ACRS THE FA. INCRSG SLY WINDS BY MIDDAY WL ALLOW FOR A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDS THIS AFTN. WL SEE A LULL IN RAIN
CHCS INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. SCTD CONVECTION WL THEN BEGIN TO DVLP...
WITH VCTS INCLUDED. ANY ORGANIZED AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE
AREA FM THE W LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TNGT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS
WITH THIS SYS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251003
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  65  80  66 /  40  80  70  20
CAMDEN AR         82  68  85  69 /  80  90  50  30
HARRISON AR       79  62  80  63 /  30  80  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    80  67  83  69 /  70  90  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  66  84  68 /  50  90  50  30
MONTICELLO AR     83  68  83  68 /  80  90  80  30
MOUNT IDA AR      78  64  82  67 /  70  90  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  63  81  64 /  30  80  50  30
NEWPORT AR        82  67  80  67 /  40  80  80  20
PINE BLUFF AR     82  68  82  68 /  70  90  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  65  83  66 /  50  80  40  40
SEARCY AR         81  65  81  65 /  40  80  60  30
STUTTGART AR      83  66  83  68 /  50  80  70  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251003
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
503 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
REGARDS TO THE QPF. MOST MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE NATURAL STATE...HOWEVER THEY ALL DO HAVE HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS...DO
STILL FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED.

TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SEEN. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF
SUN TODAY. WITH THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR CAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...0-1 SRH WILL INCREASE TO OVER
100 TO 150 M^2/S^2. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND SW ARKANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...THE HRRR AND WRF BOTH HINT AT A
SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH TWO COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE ECMWF
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR QPF WENT WITH A
ECMWF/SREF BLEND. THIS RESULTED IN QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE AROUND THE STATE...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SW ARKANSAS.
THE GFS AND GEM ARE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE STATE...AND SOME OF THE MEMBERS OF THE SREF PLUMES DO HINT AT
SOME HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK THAT
THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL...AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS
AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING AT THE SURFACE. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
AT...OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

RESIDUAL MOISTURE WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS THE REGION THRU THE PD. A
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY APCH THE REGION FM THE W LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH SCTD CONVECTION MENTIONED EACH DAY. RAIN CHCS WL ALSO BE
ENHANCED LATE IN THE PD BY A WEAK CDFNT THAT WL WORK INTO AR. DID
NOT STRAY TOO FAR FM MOS TEMPS...WHICH LINE UP RATHER WELL WITH
CURRENT FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  65  80  66 /  40  80  70  20
CAMDEN AR         82  68  85  69 /  80  90  50  30
HARRISON AR       79  62  80  63 /  30  80  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    80  67  83  69 /  70  90  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  66  84  68 /  50  90  50  30
MONTICELLO AR     83  68  83  68 /  80  90  80  30
MOUNT IDA AR      78  64  82  67 /  70  90  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  63  81  64 /  30  80  50  30
NEWPORT AR        82  67  80  67 /  40  80  80  20
PINE BLUFF AR     82  68  82  68 /  70  90  60  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   81  65  83  66 /  50  80  40  40
SEARCY AR         81  65  81  65 /  40  80  60  30
STUTTGART AR      83  66  83  68 /  50  80  70  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...44






000
FXUS64 KLZK 250629
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
129 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...25/06Z TAF CYCLE

ORGANIZED RAINFALL HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NE OF THE FA...WITH A FEW
RADAR RETURNS NOTED OVR WRN AR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONT DVLPG
THRU THE MRNG HRS WITH LOW LVL AIRMASS QUITE SATURATED. CONDS WL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDS PREVAILING. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE LATE MRNG/
EARLY AFTN HRS AS SLY WINDS INCRS. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WL
AFFECT THE AREA FM THE SW MON EVENING. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL PUSH EAST OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 7 PM CDT. LIGHTER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS AREA...WHILE MOSTLY SHOWERS. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR WITH FOG
AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE
TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
VERY STRONG WINDS TO MANY AREAS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGHS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING.
AND AS USUAL...THIS FLOODING EVENT WILL MOSTLY BE A NIGHT...ONLY
BRINGING EVEN MORE OF A CONCERN FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. ALSO...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 250629
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
129 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...25/06Z TAF CYCLE

ORGANIZED RAINFALL HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NE OF THE FA...WITH A FEW
RADAR RETURNS NOTED OVR WRN AR. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONT DVLPG
THRU THE MRNG HRS WITH LOW LVL AIRMASS QUITE SATURATED. CONDS WL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS...WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDS PREVAILING. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE LATE MRNG/
EARLY AFTN HRS AS SLY WINDS INCRS. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WL
AFFECT THE AREA FM THE SW MON EVENING. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL PUSH EAST OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 7 PM CDT. LIGHTER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS AREA...WHILE MOSTLY SHOWERS. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR WITH FOG
AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE
TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
VERY STRONG WINDS TO MANY AREAS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGHS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING.
AND AS USUAL...THIS FLOODING EVENT WILL MOSTLY BE A NIGHT...ONLY
BRINGING EVEN MORE OF A CONCERN FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. ALSO...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 242325 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL PUSH EAST OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 7 PM CDT. LIGHTER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS AREA...WHILE MOSTLY SHOWERS. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR WITH FOG
AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE
TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
VERY STRONG WINDS TO MANY AREAS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGHS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING.
AND AS USUAL...THIS FLOODING EVENT WILL MOSTLY BE A NIGHT...ONLY
BRINGING EVEN MORE OF A CONCERN FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. ALSO...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...51








000
FXUS64 KLZK 242325 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL PUSH EAST OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 7 PM CDT. LIGHTER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS AREA...WHILE MOSTLY SHOWERS. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR WITH FOG
AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE
TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
VERY STRONG WINDS TO MANY AREAS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGHS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING.
AND AS USUAL...THIS FLOODING EVENT WILL MOSTLY BE A NIGHT...ONLY
BRINGING EVEN MORE OF A CONCERN FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. ALSO...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...51









000
FXUS64 KLZK 242325 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL PUSH EAST OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 7 PM CDT. LIGHTER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS AREA...WHILE MOSTLY SHOWERS. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR WITH FOG
AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE
TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
VERY STRONG WINDS TO MANY AREAS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGHS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING.
AND AS USUAL...THIS FLOODING EVENT WILL MOSTLY BE A NIGHT...ONLY
BRINGING EVEN MORE OF A CONCERN FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. ALSO...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...51








000
FXUS64 KLZK 242325 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...

A LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL PUSH EAST OF ALL
TAF SITES BY 7 PM CDT. LIGHTER CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS AREA...WHILE MOSTLY SHOWERS. OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR WITH FOG
AND POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE
TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
VERY STRONG WINDS TO MANY AREAS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGHS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING.
AND AS USUAL...THIS FLOODING EVENT WILL MOSTLY BE A NIGHT...ONLY
BRINGING EVEN MORE OF A CONCERN FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. ALSO...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...51









000
FXUS64 KLZK 242224
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
524 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
VERY STRONG WINDS TO MANY AREAS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGHS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING.
AND AS USUAL...THIS FLOODING EVENT WILL MOSTLY BE A NIGHT...ONLY
BRINGING EVEN MORE OF A CONCERN FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. ALSO...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 242224
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
524 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...BRINGING
VERY STRONG WINDS TO MANY AREAS...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
INDICATING MORE STORMS DEVELOPING AS ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE
STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NOT HELP THE FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MEMORIAL DAY...BUT WILL INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES
WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS/STREAMS
ALREADY RUNNING HIGHS...THERE IS A CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS FLOODING.
AND AS USUAL...THIS FLOODING EVENT WILL MOSTLY BE A NIGHT...ONLY
BRINGING EVEN MORE OF A CONCERN FOR A DANGEROUS SITUATION.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS SET UP...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH. ALSO...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...51






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities