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000
FXUS64 KLZK 210844
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
344 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. DUE TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO A POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FINALLY OVERALL
CHANCES OF CONVECTION DO LOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF AR HAS BROUGHT A SOUTH WIND
FLOW INTO THE REGION...AND HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT
TEMPS WERE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S STATE WIDE...WHILE THE
HIGHEST WERE IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD
THE LOWEST PRECIP WATER VALUE AROUND THE REGION...AND WAS 1.43
INCHES...WHILE KSGF AT 1.62 INCHES AND KSHV WITH 1.57 INCHES.
THERE DOES REMAIN DRY AIR THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE AND DID SEE
MIXING OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS LOWERING
INTO THE 60S. CONSEQUENTLY HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE LOWER AND FROM
THE MID 90S TO LESS THAN 105. EXPECT THE SAME TODAY AND WILL
AGAIN ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. OTHERWISE...ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WAS HOLDING OVER
AR...KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
STATE. ON WEDNESDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN...FAR WESTERN AND TO FAR NORTHEASTERN AR...BUT DO NOT SEE
MUCH TODAY DUE TO INCREASED MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. AN ISOLATED STORM
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT DUE TO STRONG HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND HOT TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE WEDNESDAY VALUES. THIS WILL RAISE HEAT INDEX
VALUES A FEW DEGREES...BUT STILL KEEP LEVELS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE REGION...CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
AR TO OVER AR...KEEPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY AWAY FROM AR...AND
KEEPING THE FORECAST HOT AND DRY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO HOLD
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AND KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS UP AND DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AND GIVE SOME RELIEF IN THE HEAT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL NUDGE UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 100 DEGREES...WHILE KEEPING HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES. SOME AREAS AT
SOME POINT WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 DEGREES...AND A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM...BUT THEN
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE GFS
BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN QUICKLY AND ALLOWS A TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
MIDWEST...WHILE THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING AT GULF MOISTURE MOVING
NORTH...AND HAVE KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE GRIDS.

THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH READINGS
IN THE RIVER VALLEY APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK. WITH GULF MOISTURE
MOVING NORTH...HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  76  98  76 /  10  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         96  76  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       94  73  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  76  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  76  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  77  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  74  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  74  98  73 /  10  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        95  75  97  74 /  10  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  76  96  75 /  10  10  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   96  75  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  74  96  73 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      94  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HAVE INTRODUCED SCATTERED STRATUS AT
WESTERN SITES AROUND 10Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING WITH SUNSET.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE THEY WILL REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG TO START THE
PERIOD OFF...WITH RESULTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH SUCH HOT CONDITIONS...DESPITE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THOUGH RAIN WILL BE KEPT FROM THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT SEEMS IT WILL HAVE
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ARKANSAS WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND WED AND ALLOW
A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH...THUS
YIELDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 202304 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
604 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN SOME
AFTERNOON CU...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE SRN SITES
AROUND SUNRISE THU. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE THEY WILL REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG TO START THE
PERIOD OFF...WITH RESULTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH SUCH HOT CONDITIONS...DESPITE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THOUGH RAIN WILL BE KEPT FROM THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT SEEMS IT WILL HAVE
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ARKANSAS WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND WED AND ALLOW
A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH...THUS
YIELDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  97  77  99 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         75  97  76  99 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       73  95  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  95  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  96  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  96  77  98 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  97  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        75  96  75  98 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  96  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  97  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  95  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 202304 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
604 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHER THAN SOME
AFTERNOON CU...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE SRN SITES
AROUND SUNRISE THU. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE THEY WILL REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG TO START THE
PERIOD OFF...WITH RESULTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH SUCH HOT CONDITIONS...DESPITE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THOUGH RAIN WILL BE KEPT FROM THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT SEEMS IT WILL HAVE
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ARKANSAS WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND WED AND ALLOW
A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH...THUS
YIELDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  97  77  99 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         75  97  76  99 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       73  95  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  95  76  97 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  96  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  96  77  98 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  97  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        75  96  75  98 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  96  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  97  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  95  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 201948
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THEY WILL
REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG TO START THE PERIOD
OFF...WITH RESULTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WITH SUCH HOT CONDITIONS...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THOUGH RAIN WILL BE KEPT FROM THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT SEEMS IT WILL HAVE
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ARKANSAS WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND WED AND ALLOW
A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH...THUS
YIELDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         75  96  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  95  75  96 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  96  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  95  75  96 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  96  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  96  76  96 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  95  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201948
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE OVER
THE AREA AND SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THEY WILL
REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HOLDING STRONG TO START THE PERIOD
OFF...WITH RESULTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WITH SUCH HOT CONDITIONS...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO THOUGH RAIN WILL BE KEPT FROM THE FORECAST.

THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT SEEMS IT WILL HAVE
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE ON ARKANSAS WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TUE AND WED AND ALLOW
A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH...THUS
YIELDING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         75  96  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  95  75  96 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  96  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  96  76  97 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  95  75  96 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  96  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  96  76  96 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  96  74  97 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  95  75  96 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 201711 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1211 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

PRETTY EASY TAF PERIOD FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON CU TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH FEW-SCT BASES
AROUND 6K FT AGL. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTIONING AT ANY TERMINALS. RELATIVELY SPEAKING...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AROUND 8-10KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 16Z...BUT LIGHT OR NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT.

TAFS WILL BE OUT AT 1720Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH MAINLY TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST. A SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS AND THIS COULD BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND LEFT THE MAX TEMPERATURES AS IS.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
FINALLY OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DO LOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF AR HAS A SOUTH WIND FLOW
INTO THE REGION...AND HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT TEMPS
WERE IN THE 70S STATE WIDE...WHILE THE HIGHEST WERE IN THE EAST
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.58 INCHES...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR ALOFT. ALOFT THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS OVER AR...KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE. ON TUESDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AR DUE TO OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT COVERAGE WAS LOW AND
VERY ISOLATED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPS WILL RUN AT NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES REACHING THE 90S STATEWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST
CENTRAL TO EASTERN LOCATIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UP...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR MIXING SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY
DID SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES...
AND WILL SEE THE SAME TODAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH AGAIN ONLY SPOTTY LOCATIONS
SEEING 105 AND ABOVE. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS.
TODAY WILL GO WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AR...DUE TO
RECENT OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL AR. BUT THEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...POP CHANCES LOWER TO LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
TO EARLY EVENING...AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN...BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE AS THE HEAT INCREASES
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE SOUTH WIND FLOW SURFACE MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL HOLD ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MOVES NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     95  76  97  74 /  10  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         95  75  97  76 /  20  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       93  72  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  75  95  75 /  20  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  96  76  97  75 /  10  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  75  96  76 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      94  73  95  75 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  75  96  76 /  20  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  73  96  74 /  20  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      95  74  95  74 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 201711 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1211 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

PRETTY EASY TAF PERIOD FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON CU TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH FEW-SCT BASES
AROUND 6K FT AGL. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MENTIONING AT ANY TERMINALS. RELATIVELY SPEAKING...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AROUND 8-10KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 16Z...BUT LIGHT OR NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT.

TAFS WILL BE OUT AT 1720Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH MAINLY TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST. A SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS AND THIS COULD BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND LEFT THE MAX TEMPERATURES AS IS.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
FINALLY OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DO LOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF AR HAS A SOUTH WIND FLOW
INTO THE REGION...AND HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT TEMPS
WERE IN THE 70S STATE WIDE...WHILE THE HIGHEST WERE IN THE EAST
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.58 INCHES...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR ALOFT. ALOFT THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS OVER AR...KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE. ON TUESDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AR DUE TO OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT COVERAGE WAS LOW AND
VERY ISOLATED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPS WILL RUN AT NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES REACHING THE 90S STATEWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST
CENTRAL TO EASTERN LOCATIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UP...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR MIXING SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY
DID SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES...
AND WILL SEE THE SAME TODAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH AGAIN ONLY SPOTTY LOCATIONS
SEEING 105 AND ABOVE. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS.
TODAY WILL GO WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AR...DUE TO
RECENT OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL AR. BUT THEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...POP CHANCES LOWER TO LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
TO EARLY EVENING...AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN...BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE AS THE HEAT INCREASES
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE SOUTH WIND FLOW SURFACE MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL HOLD ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MOVES NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     95  76  97  74 /  10  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         95  75  97  76 /  20  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       93  72  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  75  95  75 /  20  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  96  76  97  75 /  10  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  75  96  76 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      94  73  95  75 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  75  96  76 /  20  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  73  96  74 /  20  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      95  74  95  74 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 201613
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1113 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH MAINLY TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST. A SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS AND THIS COULD BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND LEFT THE MAX TEMPERATURES AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED CU TO THE TAF SITES...WITH MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
FINALLY OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DO LOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF AR HAS A SOUTH WIND FLOW
INTO THE REGION...AND HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT TEMPS
WERE IN THE 70S STATE WIDE...WHILE THE HIGHEST WERE IN THE EAST
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.58 INCHES...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR ALOFT. ALOFT THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS OVER AR...KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE. ON TUESDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AR DUE TO OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT COVERAGE WAS LOW AND
VERY ISOLATED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPS WILL RUN AT NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES REACHING THE 90S STATEWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST
CENTRAL TO EASTERN LOCATIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UP...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR MIXING SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY
DID SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES...
AND WILL SEE THE SAME TODAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH AGAIN ONLY SPOTTY LOCATIONS
SEEING 105 AND ABOVE. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS.
TODAY WILL GO WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AR...DUE TO
RECENT OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL AR. BUT THEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...POP CHANCES LOWER TO LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
TO EARLY EVENING...AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN...BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE AS THE HEAT INCREASES
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE SOUTH WIND FLOW SURFACE MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL HOLD ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MOVES NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     95  76  97  74 /  10  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         95  75  97  76 /  20  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       93  72  95  73 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  75  95  75 /  20  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  96  76  97  75 /  10  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  75  96  76 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      94  73  95  75 /  20  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  72  97  73 /  10  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  75  96  76 /  20  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  73  96  74 /  20  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      95  74  95  74 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201127 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED CU TO THE TAF SITES...WITH MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
FINALLY OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DO LOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF AR HAS A SOUTH WIND FLOW
INTO THE REGION...AND HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT TEMPS
WERE IN THE 70S STATE WIDE...WHILE THE HIGHEST WERE IN THE EAST
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.58 INCHES...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR ALOFT. ALOFT THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS OVER AR...KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE. ON TUESDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AR DUE TO OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT COVERAGE WAS LOW AND
VERY ISOLATED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPS WILL RUN AT NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES REACHING THE 90S STATEWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST
CENTRAL TO EASTERN LOCATIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UP...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR MIXING SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY
DID SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES...
AND WILL SEE THE SAME TODAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH AGAIN ONLY SPOTTY LOCATIONS
SEEING 105 AND ABOVE. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS.
TODAY WILL GO WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AR...DUE TO
RECENT OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL AR. BUT THEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...POP CHANCES LOWER TO LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
TO EARLY EVENING...AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN...BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE AS THE HEAT INCREASES
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE SOUTH WIND FLOW SURFACE MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL HOLD ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MOVES NORTH.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 201127 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED CU TO THE TAF SITES...WITH MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
FINALLY OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DO LOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF AR HAS A SOUTH WIND FLOW
INTO THE REGION...AND HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT TEMPS
WERE IN THE 70S STATE WIDE...WHILE THE HIGHEST WERE IN THE EAST
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.58 INCHES...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR ALOFT. ALOFT THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS OVER AR...KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE. ON TUESDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AR DUE TO OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT COVERAGE WAS LOW AND
VERY ISOLATED.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPS WILL RUN AT NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES REACHING THE 90S STATEWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST
CENTRAL TO EASTERN LOCATIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UP...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR MIXING SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY
DID SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES...
AND WILL SEE THE SAME TODAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH AGAIN ONLY SPOTTY LOCATIONS
SEEING 105 AND ABOVE. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS.
TODAY WILL GO WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AR...DUE TO
RECENT OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL AR. BUT THEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...POP CHANCES LOWER TO LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
TO EARLY EVENING...AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN...BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE AS THE HEAT INCREASES
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE SOUTH WIND FLOW SURFACE MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL HOLD ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MOVES NORTH.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 200830
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
CORRESPONDING HEAT INDEX VALUES. POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL.
FINALLY OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION DO LOWER AS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF AR HAS A SOUTH WIND FLOW
INTO THE REGION...AND HAS KEPT MOISTURE LEVELS UP. DEW POINT TEMPS
WERE IN THE 70S STATE WIDE...WHILE THE HIGHEST WERE IN THE EAST
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.58 INCHES...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR ALOFT. ALOFT THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS OVER AR...KEEPING ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF
THE STATE. ON TUESDAY...DID SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER
CENTRAL AR DUE TO OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES...BUT COVERAGE WAS LOW AND
VERY ISOLATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A HOT AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPS WILL RUN AT NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES REACHING THE 90S STATEWIDE...WITH THE HIGHEST
CENTRAL TO EASTERN LOCATIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
UP...WITH LIMITED DRY AIR MIXING SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY
DID SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES...
AND WILL SEE THE SAME TODAY. WILL ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH AGAIN ONLY SPOTTY LOCATIONS
SEEING 105 AND ABOVE. WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS.
TODAY WILL GO WITH SILENT SLIGHT CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AR...DUE TO
RECENT OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL AR. BUT THEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...POP CHANCES LOWER TO LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
TO EARLY EVENING...AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEEN...BUT COVERAGE
WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT A BIT MORE AS THE HEAT INCREASES
WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE SOUTH WIND FLOW SURFACE MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL HOLD ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND MUGGY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
SUNDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S. THERE MAY BE
A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE EXTENDED...AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF MOVES NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  76  97  74 /  10   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         95  75  97  76 /  10   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       93  72  95  73 /  10   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  75  95  75 /  10   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  96  76  97  75 /  10   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     95  75  96  76 /  10   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  73  95  75 /  10   0  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  72  97  73 /  10   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        95  74  96  74 /  10   0  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  75  96  76 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  73  96  74 /  10   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  74  96  74 /  10   0  10   0
STUTTGART AR      94  74  95  74 /  10   0  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 200537 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-11 KNOTS. A FEW CU MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THIS WEEK AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE MID 90S TO UPPER
90S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL
IN AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MANY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
IN MANY SPOTS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OFFING
THOUGH. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OR AT LEAST WEAKEN ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM...TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND/OR SHIFTS TO THE EAST IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 200537 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8-11 KNOTS. A FEW CU MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THIS WEEK AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE MID 90S TO UPPER
90S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL
IN AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MANY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
IN MANY SPOTS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OFFING
THOUGH. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OR AT LEAST WEAKEN ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM...TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND/OR SHIFTS TO THE EAST IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 200317 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1005 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG/MVFR VISIBILITIES TOWARD DAWN AT A FEW
SPOTS. ANY FOG WILL BE BRIEF. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY FORM
ON WEDNESDAY AT 5000 TO 6000 FEET. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 6 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 MPH WEDNESDAY. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST THIS WEEK AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE MID 90S TO UPPER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL
IN AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MANY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
IN MANY SPOTS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OFFING
THOUGH. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OR AT LEAST WEAKEN ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM...TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND/OR SHIFTS TO THE EAST IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  95  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       70  93  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  95  73  95 /  30  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  94  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  93  71  96 /  20  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        71  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  95  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         72  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64









000
FXUS64 KLZK 200317 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1005 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG/MVFR VISIBILITIES TOWARD DAWN AT A FEW
SPOTS. ANY FOG WILL BE BRIEF. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY FORM
ON WEDNESDAY AT 5000 TO 6000 FEET. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 3 TO 6 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 12 MPH WEDNESDAY. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST THIS WEEK AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE MID 90S TO UPPER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL
IN AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MANY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
IN MANY SPOTS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OFFING
THOUGH. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OR AT LEAST WEAKEN ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM...TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND/OR SHIFTS TO THE EAST IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  95  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       70  93  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  95  73  95 /  30  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  94  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  93  71  96 /  20  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        71  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  95  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         72  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64










000
FXUS64 KLZK 191930
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST THIS WEEK AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE MID 90S TO UPPER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL
IN AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MANY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
IN MANY SPOTS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OFFING
THOUGH. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OR AT LEAST WEAKEN ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM...TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND/OR SHIFTS TO THE EAST IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  95  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       70  93  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  95  73  95 /  30  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  94  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  93  71  96 /  20  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        71  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  95  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         72  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 191930
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST THIS WEEK AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SOME INSTABILITY CONTINUES OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLIMBING FROM THE MID 90S TO UPPER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL
IN AGREEMENT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION
LEADING TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...WITH THE EURO BEING CONSIDERABLY STRONGER
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE
THOUGH...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S OR SLIGHTLY OVER 100 DEGREES
FOR MANY AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...LOWS AT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 70S
IN MANY SPOTS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN THE OFFING
THOUGH. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST OR AT LEAST WEAKEN ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM...TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS DO NOT LOOK
LIKELY BEYOND SUNDAY.

LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND/OR SHIFTS TO THE EAST IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES MAY BE ON THE
INCREASE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  95  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       70  93  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  95  73  95 /  30  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  96  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  94  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  93  71  96 /  20  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        71  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  95  72  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         72  96  73  96 /  20  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  95  73  96 /  30  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191743 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 18Z VS 12Z TAF CYCLES. THE ONLY
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE WAS THE REMOVAL OF VCTS FROM A COUPLE OF SITES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IN A MUCH MORE SCATTERED FASHION AS COMPARED TO
MODEL RUNS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...MAKING IT HARD TO SAY THERE
IS ONE AREA FAVORED FOR STORMS VERSUS ANOTHER. CONVERSELY IT IS
DOUBTFUL ALL SITES WILL HAVE VCTS SO HAVE REMOVED IT FROM TAFS
COMPLETELY. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS ON A WEAK BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS
IN THIS LOCATION. ALSO INCLUDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  74  97  74 /  30  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         95  74  96  74 /  20  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       93  72  94  71 /  30  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  75  97  75 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  73  94  72 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  72  97  72 /  30  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  73  97  72 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         94  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      93  73  95  73 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191743 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 18Z VS 12Z TAF CYCLES. THE ONLY
NOTABLE DIFFERENCE WAS THE REMOVAL OF VCTS FROM A COUPLE OF SITES.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IN A MUCH MORE SCATTERED FASHION AS COMPARED TO
MODEL RUNS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...MAKING IT HARD TO SAY THERE
IS ONE AREA FAVORED FOR STORMS VERSUS ANOTHER. CONVERSELY IT IS
DOUBTFUL ALL SITES WILL HAVE VCTS SO HAVE REMOVED IT FROM TAFS
COMPLETELY. WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS ON A WEAK BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS
IN THIS LOCATION. ALSO INCLUDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  74  97  74 /  30  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         95  74  96  74 /  20  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       93  72  94  71 /  30  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  75  97  75 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  73  94  72 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  72  97  72 /  30  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  73  97  72 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         94  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      93  73  95  73 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 191503
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1003 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS ON A WEAK BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS
IN THIS LOCATION. ALSO INCLUDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE

STILL EXPECT SOME PTCHY BR EARLY THIS MRNG...BRIEFLY REDUCING
VSBYS TO MVFR CAT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD.
CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS SWRN MO/NERN OK HAS CONTD TO WEAKEN IN THE
LAST FEW HRS. THE ASSOCD OUTFLOW BNDRY COULD SET OFF A FEW STORMS
LATER TODAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO MENTION IN THE FCST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDCG SCTD SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF SRN AR LATER
THIS AFTN...WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KADF AND KLLQ. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  74  97  74 /  30  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         95  74  96  74 /  20  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       93  72  94  71 /  30  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  75  97  75 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  73  94  72 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  72  97  72 /  30  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  73  97  72 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         94  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      93  73  95  73 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191503
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1003 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN EASTERN ARKANSAS ON A WEAK BOUNDARY. INCREASED POPS
IN THIS LOCATION. ALSO INCLUDED MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTHEAST.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE

STILL EXPECT SOME PTCHY BR EARLY THIS MRNG...BRIEFLY REDUCING
VSBYS TO MVFR CAT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD.
CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS SWRN MO/NERN OK HAS CONTD TO WEAKEN IN THE
LAST FEW HRS. THE ASSOCD OUTFLOW BNDRY COULD SET OFF A FEW STORMS
LATER TODAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO MENTION IN THE FCST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDCG SCTD SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF SRN AR LATER
THIS AFTN...WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KADF AND KLLQ. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     94  74  97  74 /  30  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         95  74  96  74 /  20  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       93  72  94  71 /  30  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  75  97  75 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  73  94  72 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  72  97  72 /  30  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        93  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     94  74  95  74 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   95  73  97  72 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         94  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      93  73  95  73 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 191140
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE

STILL EXPECT SOME PTCHY BR EARLY THIS MRNG...BRIEFLY REDUCING
VSBYS TO MVFR CAT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD.
CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS SWRN MO/NERN OK HAS CONTD TO WEAKEN IN THE
LAST FEW HRS. THE ASSOCD OUTFLOW BNDRY COULD SET OFF A FEW STORMS
LATER TODAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO MENTION IN THE FCST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDCG SCTD SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF SRN AR LATER
THIS AFTN...WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KADF AND KLLQ. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 191140
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE

STILL EXPECT SOME PTCHY BR EARLY THIS MRNG...BRIEFLY REDUCING
VSBYS TO MVFR CAT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD.
CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS SWRN MO/NERN OK HAS CONTD TO WEAKEN IN THE
LAST FEW HRS. THE ASSOCD OUTFLOW BNDRY COULD SET OFF A FEW STORMS
LATER TODAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO MENTION IN THE FCST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDCG SCTD SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACRS PARTS OF SRN AR LATER
THIS AFTN...WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KADF AND KLLQ. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 190906
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     97  78  96  77 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         95  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       95  71  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  97  75  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     96  75  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  97  71  96  69 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        95  75  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  74  97  72 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         95  73  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      94  71  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...44











000
FXUS64 KLZK 190906
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
406 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
PLAINS STATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING INTO THE STATE JUST AROUND SUNRISE.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH MULTIPLE LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION. MEANWHILE...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF TODAY...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S...TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE OF LATE...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO NEAR 100 TO
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A CONTD SUMMERTIME PATTERN. THE MODELS
ARE INDCG THAT THE UPR HIGH CENTER WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A NEW FNTL BNDRY TO APCH THE FA FM THE NW.
PLAN TO CONT MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S
WL BE COMMON THRU THE PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     97  78  96  77 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         95  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       95  71  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  76  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  97  75  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     96  75  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  72  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  97  71  96  69 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        95  75  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  74  97  72 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         95  73  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      94  71  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...224 / LONG TERM...44












000
FXUS64 KLZK 190558
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...19/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION
WL BE PTCHY BR THAT COULD FORM TOWARD SUNRISE...PRODUCING OCNL
MVFR VSBYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR AN AREA OF CONVECTION ACRS KS ATTM.
SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NRN AR
AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KHRO AND KBPK. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE QUITE
HOT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THE SFC A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL RETREAT BACK
TO THE NORTH BY TOMORROW. BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT
SOME STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE OFF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NE OK/NW AR IS
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA AT THIS HOUR.

MODELS ARE QUITE DIVIDED ON THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL AR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN ZONES FROM ADJACENT
AREAS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 190558
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...19/06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION
WL BE PTCHY BR THAT COULD FORM TOWARD SUNRISE...PRODUCING OCNL
MVFR VSBYS. WL CONT TO MONITOR AN AREA OF CONVECTION ACRS KS ATTM.
SOME OF THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYS COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NRN AR
AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT KHRO AND KBPK. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE QUITE
HOT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THE SFC A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL RETREAT BACK
TO THE NORTH BY TOMORROW. BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT
SOME STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE OFF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NE OK/NW AR IS
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA AT THIS HOUR.

MODELS ARE QUITE DIVIDED ON THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL AR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN ZONES FROM ADJACENT
AREAS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 182327 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE LOWER FOR TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ANY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE QUITE
HOT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THE SFC A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL RETREAT BACK
TO THE NORTH BY TOMORROW. BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT
SOME STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE OFF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NE OK/NW AR IS
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA AT THIS HOUR.

MODELS ARE QUITE DIVIDED ON THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL AR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN ZONES FROM ADJACENT
AREAS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  97  78  96 /  20  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         75  95  75  97 /  40  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       71  95  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  95  76  96 /  30  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  97  75  95 /  40  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  96  75  97 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  93  72  94 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  97  71  96 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        73  95  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  95  73  96 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  97  74  97 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  95  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  94  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 182327 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
627 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE TUE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE LOWER FOR TUE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ANY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE QUITE
HOT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THE SFC A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL RETREAT BACK
TO THE NORTH BY TOMORROW. BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT
SOME STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE OFF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NE OK/NW AR IS
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA AT THIS HOUR.

MODELS ARE QUITE DIVIDED ON THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL AR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN ZONES FROM ADJACENT
AREAS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
AS A RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  97  78  96 /  20  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         75  95  75  97 /  40  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       71  95  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  95  76  96 /  30  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  97  75  95 /  40  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  96  75  97 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  93  72  94 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  97  71  96 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        73  95  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  95  73  96 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  97  74  97 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  95  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      74  94  71  93 /  30  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 181939
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE QUITE HOT AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THE SFC A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL RETREAT BACK
TO THE NORTH BY TOMORROW. BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT
SOME STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE OFF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NE OK/NW AR IS
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA AT THIS HOUR.

MODELS ARE QUITE DIVIDED ON THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL AR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN ZONES FROM ADJACENT
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  97  78  96 /  20  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         77  95  75  97 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       72  95  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  95  76  96 /  30  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  97  75  95 /  30  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  93  72  94 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  97  71  96 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        73  95  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  95  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  97  74  97 /  30  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         75  95  73  94 /  20  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      73  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 181939
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE QUITE HOT AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS.

AT THE SFC A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL RETREAT BACK
TO THE NORTH BY TOMORROW. BOUNDARY IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT
SOME STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE OFF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ANOTHER COMPLEX LOCATED OVER NE OK/NW AR IS
NUDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA AT THIS HOUR.

MODELS ARE QUITE DIVIDED ON THE LOCATION AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL AR...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WRN ZONES FROM ADJACENT
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  97  78  96 /  20  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         77  95  75  97 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       72  95  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  95  76  96 /  30  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  97  75  95 /  30  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     75  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  93  72  94 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  97  71  96 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        73  95  75  94 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  95  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  97  74  97 /  30  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         75  95  73  94 /  20  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      73  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 181746
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITIED SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND HAVE DEVELOPED
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD
MISS THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH SECTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BROKEN CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS. AFTER SOME IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION STARTING TO CLEAR OUT IN THE SE PART OF THE CWA AND
HAS LEFT A POOL OF RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY BASED ON THIS...AND ALSO
MAKING TWEAKS TO POPS...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

HRR AND RUC MODELS FORECASTING REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 53

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...18/12Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA...ASSOCD WITH AN MCV...WL CONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS
CNTRL AND SRN AR THIS MRNG. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WDLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD
ORGANIZE ACRS MO LATE TNGT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF NRN AR
TUE MRNG. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NRN FCST SITES WOULD NOT BE IMPACTED
UNTIL AFT THIS FCST PD. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ON GOING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
STORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING OUT OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION...SPARKING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN ITS INITIAL SLOW MOVING NATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS EAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY.

HOT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE UNDER THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED ACRS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
AFTN HEAT INDICES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LTL IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PROVIDE ANY
RELIEF FM THE HEAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         75  96  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       72  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  95  74  95 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  94  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  73  95 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  96  72  97 /  20  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        73  95  72  97 /  20  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  95  73  96 /  20  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      72  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 181746
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITIED SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND HAVE DEVELOPED
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD
MISS THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH SECTIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. BROKEN CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS. AFTER SOME IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR TO MVFR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION STARTING TO CLEAR OUT IN THE SE PART OF THE CWA AND
HAS LEFT A POOL OF RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY BASED ON THIS...AND ALSO
MAKING TWEAKS TO POPS...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

HRR AND RUC MODELS FORECASTING REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 53

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...18/12Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA...ASSOCD WITH AN MCV...WL CONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS
CNTRL AND SRN AR THIS MRNG. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WDLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD
ORGANIZE ACRS MO LATE TNGT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF NRN AR
TUE MRNG. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NRN FCST SITES WOULD NOT BE IMPACTED
UNTIL AFT THIS FCST PD. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ON GOING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
STORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING OUT OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION...SPARKING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN ITS INITIAL SLOW MOVING NATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS EAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY.

HOT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE UNDER THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED ACRS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
AFTN HEAT INDICES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LTL IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PROVIDE ANY
RELIEF FM THE HEAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  96  75  98 /  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         75  96  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       72  95  71  95 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  95  74  95 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  96  75  97 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  94  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  73  95 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  96  72  97 /  20  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        73  95  72  97 /  20  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     73  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  97  73  97 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  95  73  96 /  20  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      72  94  72  95 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 181609
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1109 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION STARTING TO CLEAR OUT IN THE SE PART OF THE CWA AND
HAS LEFT A POOL OF RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY BASED ON THIS...AND ALSO
MAKING TWEAKS TO POPS...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

HRR AND RUC MODELS FORECASTING REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 53
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...18/12Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA...ASSOCD WITH AN MCV...WL CONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS
CNTRL AND SRN AR THIS MRNG. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WDLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD
ORGANIZE ACRS MO LATE TNGT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF NRN AR
TUE MRNG. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NRN FCST SITES WOULD NOT BE IMPACTED
UNTIL AFT THIS FCST PD. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ON GOING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
STORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING OUT OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION...SPARKING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN ITS INITIAL SLOW MOVING NATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS EAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY.

HOT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE UNDER THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED ACRS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
AFTN HEAT INDICES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LTL IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PROVIDE ANY
RELIEF FM THE HEAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     93  74  96  75 /  30  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         89  75  96  74 /  50  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       93  72  95  71 /  20  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  95  74 /  40  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  75  96  75 /  40  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  74  94  74 /  60  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      92  73  94  73 /  30  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  93  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        91  73  95  72 /  40  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     86  73  95  74 /  50  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  73  97  73 /  30  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  72  95  73 /  40  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      87  72  94  72 /  50  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 181609
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1109 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION STARTING TO CLEAR OUT IN THE SE PART OF THE CWA AND
HAS LEFT A POOL OF RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. MAKING
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY BASED ON THIS...AND ALSO
MAKING TWEAKS TO POPS...DEW POINTS...AND CLOUD COVER BASED ON
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

HRR AND RUC MODELS FORECASTING REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 53
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...18/12Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA...ASSOCD WITH AN MCV...WL CONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS
CNTRL AND SRN AR THIS MRNG. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WDLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD
ORGANIZE ACRS MO LATE TNGT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF NRN AR
TUE MRNG. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NRN FCST SITES WOULD NOT BE IMPACTED
UNTIL AFT THIS FCST PD. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ON GOING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
STORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING OUT OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION...SPARKING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN ITS INITIAL SLOW MOVING NATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS EAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY.

HOT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE UNDER THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED ACRS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
AFTN HEAT INDICES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LTL IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PROVIDE ANY
RELIEF FM THE HEAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     93  74  96  75 /  30  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         89  75  96  74 /  50  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       93  72  95  71 /  20  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  95  74 /  40  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  75  96  75 /  40  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  74  94  74 /  60  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      92  73  94  73 /  30  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  93  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        91  73  95  72 /  40  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     86  73  95  74 /  50  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  73  97  73 /  30  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  72  95  73 /  40  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      87  72  94  72 /  50  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLZK 181147
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...18/12Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA...ASSOCD WITH AN MCV...WL CONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS
CNTRL AND SRN AR THIS MRNG. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WDLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD
ORGANIZE ACRS MO LATE TNGT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF NRN AR
TUE MRNG. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NRN FCST SITES WOULD NOT BE IMPACTED
UNTIL AFT THIS FCST PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ON GOING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
STORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING OUT OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION...SPARKING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN ITS INITIAL SLOW MOVING NATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS EAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY.

HOT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE UNDER THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED ACRS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
AFTN HEAT INDICES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LTL IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PROVIDE ANY
RELIEF FM THE HEAT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 181147
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...18/12Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA...ASSOCD WITH AN MCV...WL CONT TO TRACK EWD ACRS
CNTRL AND SRN AR THIS MRNG. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WDLY SCTD
CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD
ORGANIZE ACRS MO LATE TNGT...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF NRN AR
TUE MRNG. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...NRN FCST SITES WOULD NOT BE IMPACTED
UNTIL AFT THIS FCST PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION ON GOING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
STORMS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SWINGING OUT OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION...SPARKING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN ITS INITIAL SLOW MOVING NATURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS EAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STALL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. STILL HAVE PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY.

HOT SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE UNDER THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRES ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED ACRS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
AFTN HEAT INDICES ARE FCST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES EACH
AFTN. EXPECT LTL IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PROVIDE ANY
RELIEF FM THE HEAT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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