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000
FXUS64 KLZK 301717
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1217 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AGAIN EXPECT SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
FOG. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA APPEAR FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS
THROUGH 00Z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
AN MCS...NEARLY STATIONARY...DROPPED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
BOONE COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN FINALLY BEGAN MOVING SOUTHWEST
BY MID MORNING...AND IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF JASPER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH. ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAX TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z/900 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CUMULUS WILL FORM TODAY AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...AND THERE
WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
6 TO 12 MPH TODAY...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH
TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIRES MODELS AGREEING THAT
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
OF MU CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S.

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
DRIER WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY LEADING TO NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND FORECAST PRECIP...OTHERWISE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL...RIDGING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND THIS WILL
WOBBLE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE THE PATTERN AT
LEAST A LITTLE UNSETTLED...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE
SUMMER...WITH READINGS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  69  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         92  67  95  69 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       86  65  89  67 /  70  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  69  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  67  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  67  90  68 /  30  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        88  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     91  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  68 /  30  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301717
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1217 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AGAIN EXPECT SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO
FOG. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA APPEAR FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST SECTIONS
THROUGH 00Z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
AN MCS...NEARLY STATIONARY...DROPPED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
BOONE COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN FINALLY BEGAN MOVING SOUTHWEST
BY MID MORNING...AND IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF JASPER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH. ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAX TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z/900 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CUMULUS WILL FORM TODAY AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...AND THERE
WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
6 TO 12 MPH TODAY...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH
TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIRES MODELS AGREEING THAT
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
OF MU CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S.

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
DRIER WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY LEADING TO NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND FORECAST PRECIP...OTHERWISE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL...RIDGING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND THIS WILL
WOBBLE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE THE PATTERN AT
LEAST A LITTLE UNSETTLED...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE
SUMMER...WITH READINGS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  69  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         92  67  95  69 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       86  65  89  67 /  70  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  69  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  67  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  67  90  68 /  30  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        88  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     91  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  68 /  30  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99




000
FXUS64 KLZK 301601
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1101 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
AN MCS...NEARLY STATIONARY...DROPPED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
BOONE COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN FINALLY BEGAN MOVING SOUTHWEST
BY MID MORNING...AND IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF JASPER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH. ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. MAX TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK WITH MID
80S TO MID 90S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z/900 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CUMULUS WILL FORM TODAY AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...AND THERE
WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
6 TO 12 MPH TODAY...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH
TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIRES MODELS AGREEING THAT
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
OF MU CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S.

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
DRIER WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY LEADING TO NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND FORECAST PRECIP...OTHERWISE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL...RIDGING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND THIS WILL
WOBBLE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE THE PATTERN AT
LEAST A LITTLE UNSETTLED...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE
SUMMER...WITH READINGS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  69  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         92  67  95  69 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       86  65  89  67 /  70  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  69  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  67  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  67  90  68 /  30  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        88  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     91  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  68 /  30  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 301141 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z/900 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CUMULUS WILL FORM TODAY AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...AND THERE
WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
6 TO 12 MPH TODAY...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIRES MODELS AGREEING THAT
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
OF MU CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S.

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
DRIER WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY LEADING TO NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND FORECAST PRECIP...OTHERWISE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL...RIDGING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND THIS WILL
WOBBLE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE THE PATTERN AT
LEAST A LITTLE UNSETTLED...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE
SUMMER...WITH READINGS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  69  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         92  67  95  69 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  89  67 /  30  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  69  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  67  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  67  90  68 /  30  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        88  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 301141 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z/900 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CUMULUS WILL FORM TODAY AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET...AND THERE
WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT
6 TO 12 MPH TODAY...AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIRES MODELS AGREEING THAT
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
OF MU CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S.

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
DRIER WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY LEADING TO NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND FORECAST PRECIP...OTHERWISE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL...RIDGING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND THIS WILL
WOBBLE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE THE PATTERN AT
LEAST A LITTLE UNSETTLED...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE
SUMMER...WITH READINGS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  69  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         92  67  95  69 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  89  67 /  30  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  69  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  67  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  67  90  68 /  30  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        88  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300932
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
432 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GENERALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DO EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH HIRES MODELS AGREEING THAT
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE GENERATING BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG
OF MU CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 80S.

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT
DRIER WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT...HAVE DECREASED POPS ON MONDAY LEADING TO NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND FORECAST PRECIP...OTHERWISE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL...RIDGING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND THIS WILL
WOBBLE AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE THE PATTERN AT
LEAST A LITTLE UNSETTLED...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED. UNDER THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE
SUMMER...WITH READINGS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  69  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         92  67  95  69 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  89  67 /  30  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  92  71 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  69  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  71 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  67  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  86  67  90  68 /  30  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        88  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 292315 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. VCSH ADDED ACROSS NORTHERN SITES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN OVERALL DRY AND WARMING INTO THE COMING WEEK.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION TODAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH
THUNDER NOTED OVER N TO NE AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SOME TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN A WEATHER FACTOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EVEN MONDAY...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH A BIT
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF AR...ALBEIT
COVERAGE STILL DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. BY TUESDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKENED
AND MINIMAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE PATTERN. HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL BE FLANKED ON BOTH SIDES BY UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES...AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 292315 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. VCSH ADDED ACROSS NORTHERN SITES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN OVERALL DRY AND WARMING INTO THE COMING WEEK.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION TODAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH
THUNDER NOTED OVER N TO NE AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SOME TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN A WEATHER FACTOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EVEN MONDAY...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH A BIT
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF AR...ALBEIT
COVERAGE STILL DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. BY TUESDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKENED
AND MINIMAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE PATTERN. HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL BE FLANKED ON BOTH SIDES BY UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES...AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 292315 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. VCSH ADDED ACROSS NORTHERN SITES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN OVERALL DRY AND WARMING INTO THE COMING WEEK.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION TODAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH
THUNDER NOTED OVER N TO NE AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SOME TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN A WEATHER FACTOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EVEN MONDAY...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH A BIT
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF AR...ALBEIT
COVERAGE STILL DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. BY TUESDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKENED
AND MINIMAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE PATTERN. HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL BE FLANKED ON BOTH SIDES BY UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES...AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58




000
FXUS64 KLZK 292315 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
615 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. VCSH ADDED ACROSS NORTHERN SITES FOR THE
EVENING HOURS. SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN OVERALL DRY AND WARMING INTO THE COMING WEEK.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION TODAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH
THUNDER NOTED OVER N TO NE AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SOME TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN A WEATHER FACTOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EVEN MONDAY...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH A BIT
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF AR...ALBEIT
COVERAGE STILL DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. BY TUESDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKENED
AND MINIMAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE PATTERN. HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL BE FLANKED ON BOTH SIDES BY UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES...AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291945
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN OVERALL DRY AND WARMING INTO THE COMING WEEK.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION TODAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WITH
THUNDER NOTED OVER N TO NE AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN...SOME TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN A WEATHER FACTOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EVEN MONDAY...WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN
THE TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH A BIT
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF AR...ALBEIT
COVERAGE STILL DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN LOW. TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. BY TUESDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKENED
AND MINIMAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN THE PATTERN. HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL BE FLANKED ON BOTH SIDES BY UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE BGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES...AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  88  69  91 /  30  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         68  92  69  94 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  66  89 /  30  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  91  69  92 /  20  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  68  90  69  93 /  20  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     67  92  70  93 /  20  20  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      67  89  69  91 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  87  67  90 /  30  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        67  89  68  91 /  30  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  91  68  93 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  90  68  92 /  20  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         66  91  68  92 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      67  91  68  93 /  20  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291745
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SITES.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...WITH THUNDER NOTED OVER NORTHERN AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN...WILL HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND FINE TUNE CONVECTION CHANCES WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE MORE A SHOWER ISOLATED THUNDER PRECIP TYPE DUE
TO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  88  69  91 /  30  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         69  92  69  94 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  65  88 /  30  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  91  69  92 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  70  93 /  30  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  92  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  90  68  91 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  67  90 /  30  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        68  88  69  91 /  30  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  92  68  93 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  91  68  92 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         67  91  67  92 /  30  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      68  91  68  93 /  30  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291745
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SITES.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...WITH THUNDER NOTED OVER NORTHERN AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN...WILL HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND FINE TUNE CONVECTION CHANCES WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE MORE A SHOWER ISOLATED THUNDER PRECIP TYPE DUE
TO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  88  69  91 /  30  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         69  92  69  94 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  65  88 /  30  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  91  69  92 /  20  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  70  93 /  30  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  92  70  93 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  90  68  91 /  20  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  67  90 /  30  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        68  88  69  91 /  30  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  92  68  93 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  91  68  92 /  20  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         67  91  67  92 /  30  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      68  91  68  93 /  30  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291513 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...WITH THUNDER NOTED OVER NORTHERN AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN...WILL HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND FINE TUNE CONVECTION CHANCES WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE MORE A SHOWER ISOLATED THUNDER PRECIP TYPE DUE
TO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  87  67 /  40  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  67 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      91  68  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291513 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST...WITH THUNDER NOTED OVER NORTHERN AR WHERE MAX LIFT AND SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IS LOCATED. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
WITHIN THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF AR...GENERALLY FROM NE OK TO CENTRAL MO. DEW POINT
TEMPS HAVE COME UP OVER AR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WHILE 12Z
KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.19 INCHES. DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN...WILL HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS...AND FINE TUNE CONVECTION CHANCES WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE MORE A SHOWER ISOLATED THUNDER PRECIP TYPE DUE
TO LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  87  67 /  40  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  67 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      91  68  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291142
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  87  67 /  40  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  67 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      91  68  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291142
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  87  67 /  40  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  67 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      91  68  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291142
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  87  67 /  40  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  67 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      91  68  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291142
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE STATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. DID INCLUDE THUNDER TO TAF LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH. AFTERNOON HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  87  67 /  40  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  67 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      91  68  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291015
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  87  67 /  40  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  67 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      91  68  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291015
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS THAN IN PAST DAYS...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE RAIN IS NOT IN THE FORECAST.

HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH...AND THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT
WILL END UP AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE
IN THE LONG TERM MODELS INCLUDE ERIKA NOW TRACKING UP THE WESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA. DO BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WOULD ROB ARKANSAS OF MUCH
OF THE MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INCLUDED IN THE SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT DID GO A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  68  88  69 /  30  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         92  69  92  69 /  20  20  20  10
HARRISON AR       85  65  85  65 /  40  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    91  69  91  69 /  30  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  91  70 /  20  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     92  68  92  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      90  67  90  68 /  40  20  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  66  87  67 /  40  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        87  68  88  69 /  20  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  91  68 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         90  67  91  67 /  20  30  20  20
STUTTGART AR      91  68  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 290554
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPBF...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DO EXPECT FAIRLY LOW COVERAGE
WITH THESE STORMS AND AT THIS POINT JUST INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS
AT KHRO/KBPK/KHOT/KADF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         69  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  65  88 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  92  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  91  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      68  91  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 290554
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPBF...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DO EXPECT FAIRLY LOW COVERAGE
WITH THESE STORMS AND AT THIS POINT JUST INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS
AT KHRO/KBPK/KHOT/KADF.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         69  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  65  88 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  92  70  93 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      67  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  87  67  90 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  92  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  91  68  92 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         67  91  67  92 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      68  91  68  93 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 282313 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 281937
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF LIGHT CONVECTION
IN NW AR THIS EVENING TO TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE WEEKEND OVER A
BIT MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED MODERATE WILD
FIRE DANGER WITH SOME BURN BANS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AR.

LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK DID MAKE PROGRESS EAST BUT HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EAST. ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS SEEN. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT A BIT MORE
EAST...OVER CENTRAL KS...TO EASTERN NEB. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP A LITTLE OVER AR...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER MOST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE MID 60S OVER THE FAR
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
INTO NORTHERN AR LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AND
FORECAST WILL INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH AND MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER...IS EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ABOUT AS HIGH I CAN
GO AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...HAVE HELD CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MAINLY OVER THESE AREAS. ON SUNDAY...HAVE MOVED POP CHANCES
A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MAY HAVE TO ADD A
BIT MORE POP CHANCES SUNDAY. INTO MONDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MORE AND HAVE HELD
FORECAST DRY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST AND
LATER FORECASTS MAY ADD SLIGHT CHANCES. TEMPS WILL OVERALL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED TERM...WITH A TROF ACROSS THE WEST.
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPLIT THE RIDGE AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY.

OVERALL THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP A SLY TO SELY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BUILDING SLOWLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  89  68  89 /  10  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  91  67  91 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       66  85  66  87 /  30  30  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  89  69  91 /  10  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  90  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  92  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      66  89  67  91 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  86  67  88 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        65  89  68  90 /  10  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  89  68  91 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  90  68  91 /  10  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      67  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281529 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK MAKING
SOME PROGRESS EAST BUT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. FAR NW AR MAY SEE LIGHT
CONVECTION BUT NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. OF COURSE WILL MONITOR
THIS. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING
MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST WILL
INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK HIGH AND MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS ABOUT AS HIGH FORECAST CAN GO
AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO UPPER 80S TO A FEW
NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS. WILL FINE SOME ELEMENTS WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281529 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK MAKING
SOME PROGRESS EAST BUT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY. FAR NW AR MAY SEE LIGHT
CONVECTION BUT NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. OF COURSE WILL MONITOR
THIS. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING
MORE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST WILL
INDICATE THIS. ALTHOUGH...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK HIGH AND MAINLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IS ABOUT AS HIGH FORECAST CAN GO
AT THIS TIME. PRECIP WATER VALUES DO COME UP OVER 1 INCH OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY NEED A BIT MORE ISOLATED POP OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...TODAY TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH MID TO UPPER 80S TO A FEW
NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS. WILL FINE SOME ELEMENTS WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED AROUND THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 280912
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
412 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A STORM SYSTEM ALOFT WAS HEADING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM WAS MOVING AROUND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT TIED TO THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...
AND WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT/SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY NEAR TERM...WITH SLOW
WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST SLOWLY BUILDS IN
THIS DIRECTION. TEMEPRATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...BUT WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FEW CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF VARY QUITE A BIT IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW TO THE SW OF THE STATE. 00Z GFS HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
COMING BACK DRIER. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP DIURNAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE TRENDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  66  89  69 /   0  10  20  10
CAMDEN AR         90  65  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       84  65  85  66 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  67  91  70 /   0  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  66  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  65  90  67 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  65  87  67 /   0  20  30  20
NEWPORT AR        86  66  89  68 /   0  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  66  91  68 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  67  90  68 /   0  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         87  65  90  68 /   0  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      88  66  90  68 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280553
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHRO DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  92  67  91 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  66  87 /  30  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  91  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  91  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  90  67  92 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  87  67  88 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        66  89  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  91  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  90  68  92 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      66  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280553
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO DIE OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS TO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHRO DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  92  67  91 /   0  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  85  66  87 /  30  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  91  70  92 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  91  69  92 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      65  90  67  92 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  87  67  88 /  20  30  20  10
NEWPORT AR        66  89  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  91  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  90  68  92 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  90  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      66  90  68  91 /   0  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65





000
FXUS64 KLZK 280204 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224




000
FXUS64 KLZK 280204 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224





000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 271931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 271931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 271931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...58




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