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000
FXUS64 KLZK 241513 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. MORNING FOG IS DISSIPATING AND WILL TAKE
ALL OUT WITH UPDATE. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION
AND TO THE EAST...WHILE UPSTREAM...A SHORT WAVE WITH SOME MOISTURE
WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL ONLY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO AR
FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH OVERALL DRY ATMOSPHERE. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD
A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.63 INCHES...WITH ONLY MOISTURE IN LOWER 5K
FEET. QUITE DRY ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER AR AT THIS
TIME...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S...WHILE TEMPS WERE ALSO
IN THE 50S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. OVERALL WILL SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE
STATE WITH THE UPPER NW FLOW. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TODAY. PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO AR ON THU HAD
SHIFTED E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ITS WAKE...MOSTLY CLR
SKIES WERE NOTED IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME PTCHY FOG. EARLY
MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED OVR THE NATURAL STATE THIS MRNG WL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SEWD...WITH AN INCRSG S/SWLY SFC WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ACRS
THE FA TODAY AND CONT OVR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THE WARMEST PD WL BE SAT AND SUN AS UPR HEIGHTS INCRS
ACRS THE MID SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FM THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW.
THE FNT WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NWRN AR MON NGT FOR SMALL CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BETTER RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR BEYOND THIS FCST PD. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDCG THAT THE FNT MAY STALL OUT ACRS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETTLE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  51  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       77  56  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  55  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  52  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      76  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51










000
FXUS64 KLZK 241132
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS TODAY. PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO AR ON THU HAD
SHIFTED E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ITS WAKE...MOSTLY CLR
SKIES WERE NOTED IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME PTCHY FOG. EARLY
MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED OVR THE NATURAL STATE THIS MRNG WL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SEWD...WITH AN INCRSG S/SWLY SFC WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ACRS
THE FA TODAY AND CONT OVR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THE WARMEST PD WL BE SAT AND SUN AS UPR HEIGHTS INCRS
ACRS THE MID SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FM THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW.
THE FNT WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NWRN AR MON NGT FOR SMALL CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BETTER RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR BEYOND THIS FCST PD. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDCG THAT THE FNT MAY STALL OUT ACRS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETTLE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  51  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       77  56  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  55  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  52  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      76  53  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 240837
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
337 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE UPR TROF THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO AR ON THU HAD
SHIFTED E OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MRNG. IN ITS WAKE...MOSTLY CLR
SKIES WERE NOTED IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME PTCHY FOG. EARLY
MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRES RDG SITUATED OVR THE NATURAL STATE THIS MRNG WL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SEWD...WITH AN INCRSG S/SWLY SFC WIND FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE ACRS
THE FA TODAY AND CONT OVR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO
THE MID SOUTH. THE WARMEST PD WL BE SAT AND SUN AS UPR HEIGHTS INCRS
ACRS THE MID SOUTH...WITH HIGH TEMPS ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

THE UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AWAY FM THE REGION HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW.
THE FNT WL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NWRN AR MON NGT FOR SMALL CHCS OF
SHRA/TSRA. BETTER RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR BEYOND THIS FCST PD. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE INDCG THAT THE FNT MAY STALL OUT ACRS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETTLE OVER ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS
DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 240550
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST. LOW CLOUDS AT BPK SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE SITE IN
THE NEXT HOUR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
CUMULUS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME IFR IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD RAIN CHANCES.
THEN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A WARM UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION.
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS...HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LOCATIONS HAVE
REPORTED RAIN...WHILE MUCH HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND.
ATMOSPHERE WAS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S
WEST...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.33
INCHES. KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH A ONE INCH PRECIP WATER. HENCE
HAVE ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER WESTERN
TO NORTHERN AR. MOST OF MOISTURE HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WERE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAD ALSO MOVED FROM WESTERN AR TO CENTRAL AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING
AND NIGHT...AND TAKE THE RAIN OUT OF AR...THEN GRADUALLY THIN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...THEN END IT PAST MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO THIN...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SEE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S STATE
WIDE. ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMS TEMPS UP.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S ON FRIDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO MANY 80S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF LATE BY MAKING THE NEXT
SYSTEM A LITTLER MORE DYNAMIC WITH EACH RUN. LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
MOVING A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BUT ARE NOW HOLDING THE BOUNDARY
UP OVER THE SOUTH FOR CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPLENDID WEEKEND
SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL ONLY WARRANT MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. FRONT DOES LOOK
TO STALL OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS VERSUS THE ECMWF BUT REGARDLESS...WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AROUND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  56  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         76  52  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       76  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  55  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     77  53  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  56  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  52  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  52  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         75  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      76  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 232300 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PATCHY MVFR FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD RAIN CHANCES.
THEN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A WARM UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION.
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS...HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LOCATIONS HAVE
REPORTED RAIN...WHILE MUCH HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND.
ATMOSPHERE WAS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S
WEST...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.33
INCHES. KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH A ONE INCH PRECIP WATER. HENCE
HAVE ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER WESTERN
TO NORTHERN AR. MOST OF MOISTURE HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WERE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAD ALSO MOVED FROM WESTERN AR TO CENTRAL AR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING
AND NIGHT...AND TAKE THE RAIN OUT OF AR...THEN GRADUALLY THIN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...THEN END IT PAST MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO THIN...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SEE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S STATE
WIDE. ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMS TEMPS UP.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S ON FRIDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO MANY 80S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF LATE BY MAKING THE NEXT
SYSTEM A LITTLER MORE DYNAMIC WITH EACH RUN. LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
MOVING A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BUT ARE NOW HOLDING THE BOUNDARY
UP OVER THE SOUTH FOR CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPLENDID WEEKEND
SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL ONLY WARRANT MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. FRONT DOES LOOK
TO STALL OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS VERSUS THE ECMWF BUT REGARDLESS...WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AROUND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 231924
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD RAIN CHANCES.
THEN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A WARM UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION.
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS...HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LOCATIONS HAVE
REPORTED RAIN...WHILE MUCH HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND.
ATMOSPHERE WAS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S
WEST...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.33
INCHES. KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH A ONE INCH PRECIP WATER. HENCE
HAVE ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER WESTERN
TO NORTHERN AR. MOST OF MOISTURE HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WERE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAD ALSO MOVED FROM WESTERN AR TO CENTRAL AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING
AND NIGHT...AND TAKE THE RAIN OUT OF AR...THEN GRADUALLY THIN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...THEN END IT PAST MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO THIN...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SEE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S STATE
WIDE. ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMS TEMPS UP.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S ON FRIDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO MANY 80S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF LATE BY MAKING THE NEXT
SYSTEM A LITTLER MORE DYNAMIC WITH EACH RUN. LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
MOVING A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BUT ARE NOW HOLDING THE BOUNDARY
UP OVER THE SOUTH FOR CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPLENDID WEEKEND
SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL ONLY WARRANT MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. FRONT DOES LOOK
TO STALL OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS VERSUS THE ECMWF BUT REGARDLESS...WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AROUND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     45  76  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         46  76  51  84 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       50  77  57  83 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  76  54  84 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  76  54  85 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     47  76  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  79  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  77  56  83 /  20   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        46  75  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     46  73  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  77  52  85 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         43  73  51  83 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      47  74  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 231924
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD RAIN CHANCES.
THEN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A WARM UP FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION.
THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

THE LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS...HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTY LOCATIONS HAVE
REPORTED RAIN...WHILE MUCH HAS NOT BEEN REACHING THE GROUND.
ATMOSPHERE WAS QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID 40S EAST TO MID 50S
WEST...WHILE 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.33
INCHES. KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH A ONE INCH PRECIP WATER. HENCE
HAVE ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER WESTERN
TO NORTHERN AR. MOST OF MOISTURE HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION. THIS
AFTERNOON TEMPS WERE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER TROUGH HAD ALSO MOVED FROM WESTERN AR TO CENTRAL AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING
AND NIGHT...AND TAKE THE RAIN OUT OF AR...THEN GRADUALLY THIN
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...THEN END IT PAST MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO THIN...SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE SEE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S STATE
WIDE. ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS DRY AND WARMS TEMPS UP.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S ON FRIDAY...THEN UPPER 70S TO MANY 80S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF LATE BY MAKING THE NEXT
SYSTEM A LITTLER MORE DYNAMIC WITH EACH RUN. LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE
MOVING A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE BUT ARE NOW HOLDING THE BOUNDARY
UP OVER THE SOUTH FOR CONTINUING PRECIP CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO
BLEND THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPLENDID WEEKEND
SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
RETURN WILL ONLY WARRANT MINIMAL POPS AT THIS TIME. FRONT DOES LOOK
TO STALL OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
POPS VERSUS THE ECMWF BUT REGARDLESS...WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AROUND. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     45  76  56  83 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         46  76  51  84 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       50  77  57  83 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  76  54  84 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  76  54  85 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     47  76  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  79  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  77  56  83 /  20   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        46  75  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     46  73  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  77  52  85 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         43  73  51  83 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      47  74  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 231833
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
133 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AS ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR
SHOWERS...IS MOVING INTO WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID
40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE
OF 0.33 INCHES...WHILE KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH ONE INCH. HENCE
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER NW TO NORTHERN
AR...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS. WILL FINE TUNE AREA WITH LATE
MORNING UPDATE AND KEEP OVER NORTHERN AR. OTHERWISE MOST OF MOISTURE
HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION AND WILL ONLY SEE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S TODAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AR THROUGH THE DAY AND TAKE THE
RAIN TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING TO EARLIER NIGHT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG RMND IN PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH DRIER LOW
LVL AIRMASS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCRS FM THE W...ASSOCD WITH AN APCHG UPR TROF
OVR THE PLAINS STATES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS HAVE LIMITED FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF WL PASS EWD ACRS THE REGION TODAY.
RAINFALL ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE WL BE LIMITED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
PERSISTENT DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE WRN
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS MRNG WITH LGT QPF AMTS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE A
FEW SPRINKLES FURTHER EWD TODAY...BUT WL KEEP THE FCST DRY ATTM. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CLOUDS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THAT WL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.

A WARMING TREND WL COMMENCE ACRS THE MID SOUTH STARTING FRI AND
CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL START TO BLD INTO THE
AREA. THE SFC RDG WL ALSO SHIFT SWD...RESULTING IN A W/SWLY SFC
FLOW. THIS WL ALLOW FOR RATHER WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 80S. THESE READINGS WOULD BE ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
LATE OCT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST...AND ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE U.S.

ARKANSAS WILL BE BETWEEN A WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT
WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  45  76  56 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         69  46  76  51 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       67  50  77  57 /  30  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  48  76  54 /  10  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  47  76  54 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  47  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      67  44  79  50 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  47  77  56 /  30  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        65  46  75  53 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  46  73  52 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  46  77  52 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         66  43  73  51 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      66  47  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 231833
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
133 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AS ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR
SHOWERS...IS MOVING INTO WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID
40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE
OF 0.33 INCHES...WHILE KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH ONE INCH. HENCE
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER NW TO NORTHERN
AR...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS. WILL FINE TUNE AREA WITH LATE
MORNING UPDATE AND KEEP OVER NORTHERN AR. OTHERWISE MOST OF MOISTURE
HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION AND WILL ONLY SEE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S TODAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AR THROUGH THE DAY AND TAKE THE
RAIN TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING TO EARLIER NIGHT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG RMND IN PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH DRIER LOW
LVL AIRMASS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCRS FM THE W...ASSOCD WITH AN APCHG UPR TROF
OVR THE PLAINS STATES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS HAVE LIMITED FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF WL PASS EWD ACRS THE REGION TODAY.
RAINFALL ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE WL BE LIMITED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
PERSISTENT DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE WRN
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS MRNG WITH LGT QPF AMTS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE A
FEW SPRINKLES FURTHER EWD TODAY...BUT WL KEEP THE FCST DRY ATTM. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CLOUDS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THAT WL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.

A WARMING TREND WL COMMENCE ACRS THE MID SOUTH STARTING FRI AND
CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL START TO BLD INTO THE
AREA. THE SFC RDG WL ALSO SHIFT SWD...RESULTING IN A W/SWLY SFC
FLOW. THIS WL ALLOW FOR RATHER WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 80S. THESE READINGS WOULD BE ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
LATE OCT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST...AND ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE U.S.

ARKANSAS WILL BE BETWEEN A WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT
WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  45  76  56 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         69  46  76  51 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       67  50  77  57 /  30  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  48  76  54 /  10  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  47  76  54 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  47  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      67  44  79  50 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  67  47  77  56 /  30  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        65  46  75  53 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  46  73  52 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  46  77  52 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         66  43  73  51 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      66  47  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 231528 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. LIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY RAIN OR
SHOWERS...IS MOVING INTO WESTERN AR THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE MID
40S EAST TO MID 50S WEST. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE
OF 0.33 INCHES...WHILE KSGF WAS MUCH HIGHER WITH ONE INCH. HENCE
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS TO REMAIN MAINLY OVER NW TO NORTHERN
AR...AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS. WILL FINE TUNE AREA WITH LATE
MORNING UPDATE AND KEEP OVER NORTHERN AR. OTHERWISE MOST OF MOISTURE
HAS GONE TO CLOUD FORMATION AND WILL ONLY SEE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPS WILL BE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S TODAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS AR THROUGH THE DAY AND TAKE THE
RAIN TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING TO EARLIER NIGHT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG RMND IN PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH DRIER LOW
LVL AIRMASS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCRS FM THE W...ASSOCD WITH AN APCHG UPR TROF
OVR THE PLAINS STATES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS HAVE LIMITED FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF WL PASS EWD ACRS THE REGION TODAY.
RAINFALL ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE WL BE LIMITED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
PERSISTENT DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE WRN
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS MRNG WITH LGT QPF AMTS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE A
FEW SPRINKLES FURTHER EWD TODAY...BUT WL KEEP THE FCST DRY ATTM. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CLOUDS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THAT WL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.

A WARMING TREND WL COMMENCE ACRS THE MID SOUTH STARTING FRI AND
CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL START TO BLD INTO THE
AREA. THE SFC RDG WL ALSO SHIFT SWD...RESULTING IN A W/SWLY SFC
FLOW. THIS WL ALLOW FOR RATHER WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 80S. THESE READINGS WOULD BE ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
LATE OCT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST...AND ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE U.S.

ARKANSAS WILL BE BETWEEN A WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT
WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  45  75  56 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         71  46  76  51 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       69  50  77  57 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  48  76  54 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  48  76  55 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  46  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      69  44  79  50 /  20   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  48  77  56 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        66  46  75  53 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     67  46  73  52 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  46  78  51 /  20   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         68  43  74  51 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      67  47  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51










000
FXUS64 KLZK 231130
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AND NORTH TODAY. CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG RMND IN PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH DRIER LOW
LVL AIRMASS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCRS FM THE W...ASSOCD WITH AN APCHG UPR TROF
OVR THE PLAINS STATES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS HAVE LIMITED FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF WL PASS EWD ACRS THE REGION TODAY.
RAINFALL ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE WL BE LIMITED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
PERSISTENT DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE WRN
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS MRNG WITH LGT QPF AMTS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE A
FEW SPRINKLES FURTHER EWD TODAY...BUT WL KEEP THE FCST DRY ATTM. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CLOUDS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THAT WL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.

A WARMING TREND WL COMMENCE ACRS THE MID SOUTH STARTING FRI AND
CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL START TO BLD INTO THE
AREA. THE SFC RDG WL ALSO SHIFT SWD...RESULTING IN A W/SWLY SFC
FLOW. THIS WL ALLOW FOR RATHER WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 80S. THESE READINGS WOULD BE ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
LATE OCT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST...AND ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE U.S.

ARKANSAS WILL BE BETWEEN A WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT
WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  45  75  56 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         71  46  76  51 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       69  50  77  57 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  48  76  54 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  48  76  55 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     69  46  76  50 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      69  44  79  50 /  20   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  48  77  56 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        66  46  75  53 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     67  46  73  52 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  46  78  51 /  20   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         68  43  74  51 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      67  47  74  53 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 230846
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG RMND IN PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH DRIER LOW
LVL AIRMASS NOTED BY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCRS FM THE W...ASSOCD WITH AN APCHG UPR TROF
OVR THE PLAINS STATES. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS HAVE LIMITED FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF WL PASS EWD ACRS THE REGION TODAY.
RAINFALL ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE WL BE LIMITED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
PERSISTENT DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS. KEPT SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE WRN
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS MRNG WITH LGT QPF AMTS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE A
FEW SPRINKLES FURTHER EWD TODAY...BUT WL KEEP THE FCST DRY ATTM. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE CLOUDS MAY ALSO PUT A DAMPER ON THE
PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THAT WL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.

A WARMING TREND WL COMMENCE ACRS THE MID SOUTH STARTING FRI AND
CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL START TO BLD INTO THE
AREA. THE SFC RDG WL ALSO SHIFT SWD...RESULTING IN A W/SWLY SFC
FLOW. THIS WL ALLOW FOR RATHER WARM DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MID 80S. THESE READINGS WOULD BE ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR
LATE OCT.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
EAST COAST...AND ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE U.S.

ARKANSAS WILL BE BETWEEN A WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT
WILL MOVE EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS FEATURE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 230544
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS TONIGHT...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE STATE. CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE STATE
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME THOUGH FOG IS AT HOT AND ADF. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE IN ALL AREAS AFTER MID MORNING...AND CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE OUACHITA RIVER VALLEY IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. ON THURSDAY A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST WITH A
FRONTAL AND UPPER SYSTEM...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY. THEN A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

MORNING FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...WAS AGAIN SEEN THIS MORNING AND
DISSIPATED BY NOON. WILL AGAIN HAVE SOME IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AM FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR. IT HELD THE
LONGEST IN THE KMEZ AND KMWT AREA...AND IN RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS REACHING
THE 70S WEST TO CENTRAL...WHILE 60S EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WAS A BIT
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUE AT KLZK WAS LOW AT
0.43 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE TO E OVER AR FILTERING THE DRY
AND COOL AIR INTO THE STATE. THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS
OVER SW AR WAS WEAKENING.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT APPROACH AR FROM THE WEST. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AM BASED ON LAST TWO NIGHTS BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
ON THURSDAY. MODELS DO STALL THE FRONT AND WASH IT OUT OVER
WESTERN AR...AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES CAN OR WILL BE MADE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE VERSUS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING WORTH NOTING IS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MAY BE A TOUCH STRONGER AND POPS WILL BE TWEAKED UPWARDS A TOUCH.
SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGE SITTING ALMOST ON TOP OF US
FLANKED BY UPPER TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET
PUSHED TO THE EAST AS WEST COAST TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. MODELS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP
AROUND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND
ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  46  77  57 /  10  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         73  47  78  52 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       71  51  78  58 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  49  78  55 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  49  78  56 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     71  47  78  51 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      71  45  81  51 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  49  79  57 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        68  47  77  54 /  10  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     69  47  75  53 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  47  80  52 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         70  44  76  52 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      69  48  76  54 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 222301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE OUACHITA RIVER VALLEY IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. ON THURSDAY A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST WITH A
FRONTAL AND UPPER SYSTEM...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY. THEN A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

MORNING FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...WAS AGAIN SEEN THIS MORNING AND
DISSIPATED BY NOON. WILL AGAIN HAVE SOME IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AM FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR. IT HELD THE
LONGEST IN THE KMEZ AND KMWT AREA...AND IN RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS REACHING
THE 70S WEST TO CENTRAL...WHILE 60S EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WAS A BIT
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUE AT KLZK WAS LOW AT
0.43 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE TO E OVER AR FILTERING THE DRY
AND COOL AIR INTO THE STATE. THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS
OVER SW AR WAS WEAKENING.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT APPROACH AR FROM THE WEST. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AM BASED ON LAST TWO NIGHTS BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
ON THURSDAY. MODELS DO STALL THE FRONT AND WASH IT OUT OVER
WESTERN AR...AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES CAN OR WILL BE MADE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE VERSUS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING WORTH NOTING IS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MAY BE A TOUCH STRONGER AND POPS WILL BE TWEAKED UPWARDS A TOUCH.
SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGE SITTING ALMOST ON TOP OF US
FLANKED BY UPPER TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET
PUSHED TO THE EAST AS WEST COAST TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. MODELS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP
AROUND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND
ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 222301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG IN THE OUACHITA RIVER VALLEY IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. ON THURSDAY A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST WITH A
FRONTAL AND UPPER SYSTEM...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY. THEN A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

MORNING FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...WAS AGAIN SEEN THIS MORNING AND
DISSIPATED BY NOON. WILL AGAIN HAVE SOME IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AM FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR. IT HELD THE
LONGEST IN THE KMEZ AND KMWT AREA...AND IN RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS REACHING
THE 70S WEST TO CENTRAL...WHILE 60S EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WAS A BIT
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUE AT KLZK WAS LOW AT
0.43 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE TO E OVER AR FILTERING THE DRY
AND COOL AIR INTO THE STATE. THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS
OVER SW AR WAS WEAKENING.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT APPROACH AR FROM THE WEST. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AM BASED ON LAST TWO NIGHTS BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
ON THURSDAY. MODELS DO STALL THE FRONT AND WASH IT OUT OVER
WESTERN AR...AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES CAN OR WILL BE MADE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE VERSUS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING WORTH NOTING IS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MAY BE A TOUCH STRONGER AND POPS WILL BE TWEAKED UPWARDS A TOUCH.
SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGE SITTING ALMOST ON TOP OF US
FLANKED BY UPPER TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET
PUSHED TO THE EAST AS WEST COAST TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. MODELS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP
AROUND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND
ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 221931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. ON THURSDAY A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST WITH A
FRONTAL AND UPPER SYSTEM...THEN AGAIN TUESDAY. THEN A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD.

MORNING FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...WAS AGAIN SEEN THIS MORNING AND
DISSIPATED BY NOON. WILL AGAIN HAVE SOME IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AM FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR. IT HELD THE
LONGEST IN THE KMEZ AND KMWT AREA...AND IN RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS REACHING
THE 70S WEST TO CENTRAL...WHILE 60S EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH WAS A BIT
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. PRECIP WATER VALUE AT KLZK WAS LOW AT
0.43 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE TO E OVER AR FILTERING THE DRY
AND COOL AIR INTO THE STATE. THE MORNING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WAS
OVER SW AR WAS WEAKENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT APPROACH AR FROM THE WEST. DID INCLUDE SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AM BASED ON LAST TWO NIGHTS BUT
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND AT THIS TIME ONLY ISOLATED RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AR. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
ON THURSDAY. MODELS DO STALL THE FRONT AND WASH IT OUT OVER
WESTERN AR...AND THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DRY CONDITIONS OUT AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES CAN OR WILL BE MADE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE VERSUS THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. THE ONLY THING WORTH NOTING IS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MAY BE A TOUCH STRONGER AND POPS WILL BE TWEAKED UPWARDS A TOUCH.
SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH UPPER RIDGE SITTING ALMOST ON TOP OF US
FLANKED BY UPPER TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET
PUSHED TO THE EAST AS WEST COAST TROUGH ADVANCES EAST. SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES. MODELS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP
AROUND BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND
ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  68  47  77 /   0  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         46  71  46  79 /   0  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  70  51  76 /  10  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    46  69  47  78 /   0  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  69  49  78 /   0  10  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     46  70  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  71  45  77 /   0  20   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  43  69  49  78 /   0  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        42  67  47  77 /   0  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     45  68  47  77 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  70  46  79 /   0  20  10   0
SEARCY AR         42  67  46  76 /   0  10  10   0
STUTTGART AR      43  68  48  76 /   0  10  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 221759
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1259 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING AT A FEW SELECT SITES...WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. EARLIER UPDATE DID REDUCE FOG AREAS TO
ONLY PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR...ESPECIALLY IN THE KMEZ
AND KMWT AREA...AND IN RIVER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH. LATE MORNING WILL
PULL ALL MENTION OF FOG AS IT WILL DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS
REACH THE 70S WEST TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WHILE THE 60S IN THE NE TO
EAST CENTRAL AREAS. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DOMINATING THE PATTERN. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE
TO E OVER AR FILTERING THE DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE STATE. WEAK
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SW AR...WITH 50S DEW POINT TEMPS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE 40S NORTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY
FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. MORNING FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. AFTER SOME MORNING LIFR CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A WEAK CDFNT BISECTED THE FA THIS MRNG FM NW TO SE AR. THE BNDRY WAS
DEFINED PRIMARILY BY DEWPOINT TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S ACRS
THE NERN HALF OF THE FA AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG WAS
NOTED ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND N-CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG. PLAN TO CONT
A MENTION OF PTCHY FOG INTO THE MID MRNG HRS FOR AREAS TO THE W OF
THE FNT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

THE ASSOCD SFC RDG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVR THE MID SOUTH THRU THE
FCST PD. A WEAK UPR TROF WL APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE TNGT INTO
THU...BRINGING SMALL CHCS OF RAIN TO MAINLY NWRN PARTS OF THE FA.
THE SYS WL CONT TO WEAKEN AS IS APCHS THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
DRIER AIRMASS.

HIGHS TODAY WL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL
RESULT IN COOLER READINGS ON THU. BY FRI AND SAT...THE MERCURY WL
RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LVLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGH PRES
ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVR THE MID SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL BY SAT IN MANY AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BY MONDAY...THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  42  68  47 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76  46  71  46 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       71  45  69  51 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  46  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  46  69  49 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  46  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  45  71  45 /   0   0  20   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  43  69  49 /   0   0  20  10
NEWPORT AR        69  42  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  45  68  47 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  45  71  46 /   0   0  20  10
SEARCY AR         69  42  67  46 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  43  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 221759
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1259 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING AT A FEW SELECT SITES...WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. EARLIER UPDATE DID REDUCE FOG AREAS TO
ONLY PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR...ESPECIALLY IN THE KMEZ
AND KMWT AREA...AND IN RIVER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH. LATE MORNING WILL
PULL ALL MENTION OF FOG AS IT WILL DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS
REACH THE 70S WEST TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WHILE THE 60S IN THE NE TO
EAST CENTRAL AREAS. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DOMINATING THE PATTERN. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE
TO E OVER AR FILTERING THE DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE STATE. WEAK
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SW AR...WITH 50S DEW POINT TEMPS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE 40S NORTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY
FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. MORNING FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. AFTER SOME MORNING LIFR CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A WEAK CDFNT BISECTED THE FA THIS MRNG FM NW TO SE AR. THE BNDRY WAS
DEFINED PRIMARILY BY DEWPOINT TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S ACRS
THE NERN HALF OF THE FA AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG WAS
NOTED ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND N-CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG. PLAN TO CONT
A MENTION OF PTCHY FOG INTO THE MID MRNG HRS FOR AREAS TO THE W OF
THE FNT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

THE ASSOCD SFC RDG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVR THE MID SOUTH THRU THE
FCST PD. A WEAK UPR TROF WL APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE TNGT INTO
THU...BRINGING SMALL CHCS OF RAIN TO MAINLY NWRN PARTS OF THE FA.
THE SYS WL CONT TO WEAKEN AS IS APCHS THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
DRIER AIRMASS.

HIGHS TODAY WL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL
RESULT IN COOLER READINGS ON THU. BY FRI AND SAT...THE MERCURY WL
RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LVLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGH PRES
ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVR THE MID SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL BY SAT IN MANY AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BY MONDAY...THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  42  68  47 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76  46  71  46 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       71  45  69  51 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  46  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  46  69  49 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  46  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  45  71  45 /   0   0  20   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  43  69  49 /   0   0  20  10
NEWPORT AR        69  42  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  45  68  47 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  45  71  46 /   0   0  20  10
SEARCY AR         69  42  67  46 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  43  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 221507 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1005 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. EARLIER UPDATE DID REDUCE FOG AREAS TO
ONLY PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR...ESPECIALLY IN THE KMEZ
AND KMWT AREA...AND IN RIVER VALLEYS IN THE NORTH. LATE MORNING WILL
PULL ALL MENTION OF FOG AS IT WILL DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...AS HIGH TEMPS
REACH THE 70S WEST TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH...WHILE THE 60S IN THE NE TO
EAST CENTRAL AREAS. SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURES DOMINATING THE PATTERN. SURFACE WINDS ARE NE
TO E OVER AR FILTERING THE DRY AND COOL AIR INTO THE STATE. WEAK
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SW AR...WITH 50S DEW POINT TEMPS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE THE 40S NORTH. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY
FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. MORNING FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. AFTER SOME MORNING LIFR CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A WEAK CDFNT BISECTED THE FA THIS MRNG FM NW TO SE AR. THE BNDRY WAS
DEFINED PRIMARILY BY DEWPOINT TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S ACRS
THE NERN HALF OF THE FA AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG WAS
NOTED ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND N-CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG. PLAN TO CONT
A MENTION OF PTCHY FOG INTO THE MID MRNG HRS FOR AREAS TO THE W OF
THE FNT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

THE ASSOCD SFC RDG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVR THE MID SOUTH THRU THE
FCST PD. A WEAK UPR TROF WL APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE TNGT INTO
THU...BRINGING SMALL CHCS OF RAIN TO MAINLY NWRN PARTS OF THE FA.
THE SYS WL CONT TO WEAKEN AS IS APCHS THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
DRIER AIRMASS.

HIGHS TODAY WL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL
RESULT IN COOLER READINGS ON THU. BY FRI AND SAT...THE MERCURY WL
RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LVLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGH PRES
ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVR THE MID SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL BY SAT IN MANY AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BY MONDAY...THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  42  68  47 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76  46  71  46 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       71  45  69  51 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  46  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  46  69  49 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  46  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  45  71  45 /   0   0  20   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  43  69  49 /   0   0  20  10
NEWPORT AR        69  42  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  45  68  47 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  45  71  46 /   0   0  20  10
SEARCY AR         69  42  67  46 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  43  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51










000
FXUS64 KLZK 221146
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. MORNING FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. AFTER SOME MORNING LIFR CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A WEAK CDFNT BISECTED THE FA THIS MRNG FM NW TO SE AR. THE BNDRY WAS
DEFINED PRIMARILY BY DEWPOINT TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S ACRS
THE NERN HALF OF THE FA AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG WAS
NOTED ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND N-CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG. PLAN TO CONT
A MENTION OF PTCHY FOG INTO THE MID MRNG HRS FOR AREAS TO THE W OF
THE FNT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

THE ASSOCD SFC RDG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVR THE MID SOUTH THRU THE
FCST PD. A WEAK UPR TROF WL APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE TNGT INTO
THU...BRINGING SMALL CHCS OF RAIN TO MAINLY NWRN PARTS OF THE FA.
THE SYS WL CONT TO WEAKEN AS IS APCHS THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
DRIER AIRMASS.

HIGHS TODAY WL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL
RESULT IN COOLER READINGS ON THU. BY FRI AND SAT...THE MERCURY WL
RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LVLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGH PRES
ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVR THE MID SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL BY SAT IN MANY AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BY MONDAY...THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  42  68  47 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76  46  71  46 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       71  45  69  51 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  46  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  46  69  49 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  46  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  45  71  45 /   0   0  20   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  43  69  49 /   0   0  20  10
NEWPORT AR        69  42  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  45  68  47 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  45  71  46 /   0   0  20  10
SEARCY AR         69  42  67  46 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  43  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 220855
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A WEAK CDFNT BISECTED THE FA THIS MRNG FM NW TO SE AR. THE BNDRY WAS
DEFINED PRIMARILY BY DEWPOINT TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S ACRS
THE NERN HALF OF THE FA AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG WAS
NOTED ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND N-CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG. PLAN TO CONT
A MENTION OF PTCHY FOG INTO THE MID MRNG HRS FOR AREAS TO THE W OF
THE FNT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

THE ASSOCD SFC RDG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVR THE MID SOUTH THRU THE
FCST PD. A WEAK UPR TROF WL APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE TNGT INTO
THU...BRINGING SMALL CHCS OF RAIN TO MAINLY NWRN PARTS OF THE FA.
THE SYS WL CONT TO WEAKEN AS IS APCHS THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
DRIER AIRMASS.

HIGHS TODAY WL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL
RESULT IN COOLER READINGS ON THU. BY FRI AND SAT...THE MERCURY WL
RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LVLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGH PRES
ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVR THE MID SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL BY SAT IN MANY AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BY MONDAY...THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51









000
FXUS64 KLZK 220522
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1222 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS MVFR. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL BECOME LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
AND FEW IF ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. COULD BE LOWER CONDITIONS INVOF THE
LAKES AT HOT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  44  68  48 /   0   0  20  10
CAMDEN AR         75  47  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       68  46  69  52 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  47  68  48 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  47  68  49 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  47  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  46  70  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  44  68  50 /   0  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        68  43  67  48 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  46  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  46  70  46 /   0  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         68  43  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      69  45  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 220522
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1222 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS MVFR. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL BECOME LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
AND FEW IF ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. COULD BE LOWER CONDITIONS INVOF THE
LAKES AT HOT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  44  68  48 /   0   0  20  10
CAMDEN AR         75  47  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       68  46  69  52 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  47  68  48 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  47  68  49 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  47  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  46  70  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  44  68  50 /   0  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        68  43  67  48 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  46  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  46  70  46 /   0  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         68  43  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      69  45  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 212236 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
536 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. COULD BE LOWER CONDITIONS INVOF THE
LAKES AT HOT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 212236 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
536 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. COULD BE LOWER CONDITIONS INVOF THE
LAKES AT HOT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 211926
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  68  44  66 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         51  74  48  73 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       48  69  47  67 /   0   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  72  48  69 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  71  47  68 /   0   0   0  20
MONTICELLO AR     50  73  47  71 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  72  47  71 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  46  69  45  66 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        46  67  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     50  71  46  70 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  72  47  69 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         47  68  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      48  69  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...56







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