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000
FXUS64 KLZK 042329
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AROUND SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE...AND HAVE LEFT
CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS AFTER 18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SEE THE RAIN SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO BEGIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME SUN.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN EXTREME NE ARKANSAS IN THE CWA OF MEMPHIS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS EVENING...AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z.
DID HOWEVER INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT...AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME WEAK RIDGING. KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DO
BELIEVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE MINIMIZED A
BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PATTERN STARTING TO RETURN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...IN OTHER WORDS THE RETURN OF THE
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH. WITH ALL MODELS TRENDING THIS WAY...A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
DRIVEN SHOWER CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND LOOK TO SETTLE IN THERE FOR A
WHILE. MAV/NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 042329
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AROUND SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE...AND HAVE LEFT
CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS AFTER 18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SEE THE RAIN SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO BEGIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME SUN.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN EXTREME NE ARKANSAS IN THE CWA OF MEMPHIS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS EVENING...AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z.
DID HOWEVER INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT...AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME WEAK RIDGING. KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DO
BELIEVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE MINIMIZED A
BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PATTERN STARTING TO RETURN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...IN OTHER WORDS THE RETURN OF THE
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH. WITH ALL MODELS TRENDING THIS WAY...A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
DRIVEN SHOWER CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND LOOK TO SETTLE IN THERE FOR A
WHILE. MAV/NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 042329
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AROUND SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE...AND HAVE LEFT
CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS AFTER 18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SEE THE RAIN SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO BEGIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME SUN.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN EXTREME NE ARKANSAS IN THE CWA OF MEMPHIS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS EVENING...AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z.
DID HOWEVER INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT...AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME WEAK RIDGING. KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DO
BELIEVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE MINIMIZED A
BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PATTERN STARTING TO RETURN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...IN OTHER WORDS THE RETURN OF THE
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH. WITH ALL MODELS TRENDING THIS WAY...A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
DRIVEN SHOWER CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND LOOK TO SETTLE IN THERE FOR A
WHILE. MAV/NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 042329
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TSRA DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AROUND SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE...AND HAVE LEFT
CONVECTION OUT OF THE TAFS AFTER 18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SEE THE RAIN SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO BEGIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME SUN.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN EXTREME NE ARKANSAS IN THE CWA OF MEMPHIS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS EVENING...AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z.
DID HOWEVER INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT...AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME WEAK RIDGING. KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DO
BELIEVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE MINIMIZED A
BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PATTERN STARTING TO RETURN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...IN OTHER WORDS THE RETURN OF THE
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH. WITH ALL MODELS TRENDING THIS WAY...A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
DRIVEN SHOWER CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND LOOK TO SETTLE IN THERE FOR A
WHILE. MAV/NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 041939
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SEE THE RAIN SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO BEGIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME SUN.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN EXTREME NE ARKANSAS IN THE CWA OF MEMPHIS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS EVENING...AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z.
DID HOWEVER INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT...AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME WEAK RIDGING. KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DO
BELIEVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE MINIMIZED A
BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PATTERN STARTING TO RETURN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...IN OTHER WORDS THE RETURN OF THE
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH. WITH ALL MODELS TRENDING THIS WAY...A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
DRIVEN SHOWER CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND LOOK TO SETTLE IN THERE FOR A
WHILE. MAV/NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  88  72  89 /  10  30  10  20
CAMDEN AR         71  86  73  93 /  20  40  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  86  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  87  73  92 /  20  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  90  73  92 /  20  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  89  73  92 /  20  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  86  72  89 /  20  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  88  69  89 /  10  30  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  89  72  89 /  10  30  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     70  87  72  91 /  20  30  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  89  71  92 /  20  30  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  89  71  90 /  20  30  10  20
STUTTGART AR      70  88  71  91 /  20  30  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 041939
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SEE THE RAIN SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO BEGIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME SUN.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN EXTREME NE ARKANSAS IN THE CWA OF MEMPHIS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS EVENING...AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z.
DID HOWEVER INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT...AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME WEAK RIDGING. KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DO
BELIEVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE MINIMIZED A
BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PATTERN STARTING TO RETURN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...IN OTHER WORDS THE RETURN OF THE
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH. WITH ALL MODELS TRENDING THIS WAY...A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
DRIVEN SHOWER CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND LOOK TO SETTLE IN THERE FOR A
WHILE. MAV/NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  88  72  89 /  10  30  10  20
CAMDEN AR         71  86  73  93 /  20  40  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  86  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  87  73  92 /  20  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  90  73  92 /  20  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  89  73  92 /  20  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  86  72  89 /  20  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  88  69  89 /  10  30  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  89  72  89 /  10  30  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     70  87  72  91 /  20  30  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  89  71  92 /  20  30  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  89  71  90 /  20  30  10  20
STUTTGART AR      70  88  71  91 /  20  30  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 041939
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SEE THE RAIN SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO BEGIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME SUN.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN EXTREME NE ARKANSAS IN THE CWA OF MEMPHIS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS EVENING...AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z.
DID HOWEVER INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT...AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME WEAK RIDGING. KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DO
BELIEVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE MINIMIZED A
BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PATTERN STARTING TO RETURN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...IN OTHER WORDS THE RETURN OF THE
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH. WITH ALL MODELS TRENDING THIS WAY...A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
DRIVEN SHOWER CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND LOOK TO SETTLE IN THERE FOR A
WHILE. MAV/NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  88  72  89 /  10  30  10  20
CAMDEN AR         71  86  73  93 /  20  40  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  86  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  87  73  92 /  20  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  90  73  92 /  20  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  89  73  92 /  20  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  86  72  89 /  20  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  88  69  89 /  10  30  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  89  72  89 /  10  30  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     70  87  72  91 /  20  30  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  89  71  92 /  20  30  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  89  71  90 /  20  30  10  20
STUTTGART AR      70  88  71  91 /  20  30  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 041939
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

AFTER SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS...HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO SEE THE RAIN SHOW SIGNS OF
WEAKENING WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THESE SHOWERS PUSH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN THE COMING HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING TO BEGIN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN LOCATIONS THAT
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SOME SUN.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH SOME REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS
IN EXTREME NE ARKANSAS IN THE CWA OF MEMPHIS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS EVENING...AND KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 06Z.
DID HOWEVER INCLUDE SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX A BIT...AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME WEAK RIDGING. KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DO
BELIEVE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR POPS WILL BE MINIMIZED A
BIT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY APPEARS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
THE NW AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN ARKANSAS. WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PATTERN STARTING TO RETURN TO
ONE MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER...IN OTHER WORDS THE RETURN OF THE
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH. WITH ALL MODELS TRENDING THIS WAY...A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. BOUNDARY
WILL ACTUALLY BE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING NORTH TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED
DRIVEN SHOWER CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT...ODDS ARE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO
INCLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION THE FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

AFTER A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP IN THE AREA...HIGHS
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND LOOK TO SETTLE IN THERE FOR A
WHILE. MAV/NUMBERS LOOK GOOD ARE ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     65  88  72  89 /  10  30  10  20
CAMDEN AR         71  86  73  93 /  20  40  10  10
HARRISON AR       65  86  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  87  73  92 /  20  40  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  90  73  92 /  20  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  89  73  92 /  20  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  86  72  89 /  20  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  88  69  89 /  10  30  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  89  72  89 /  10  30  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     70  87  72  91 /  20  30  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  89  71  92 /  20  30  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  89  71  90 /  20  30  10  20
STUTTGART AR      70  88  71  91 /  20  30  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 041818
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
118 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXIT THE STATE TO THE
SOUTH WITH MORE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW
ARKANSAS AND PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY AS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. EXCEPT AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AR. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AR. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY
AND MOVE THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT. EQUIPMENT ERRORS AT KHRO AND
HAVE USED AMD NOT SKED. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...WHILE NW TO NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
NORTHERN AR. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS TRAINING OVER AREAS FROM PIKE TO DALLAS
TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. DO THINK IN THE NEAR TERM THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES SINCE LATE FRI EVENING...AND HAVE
POSTED SOME FFW AS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PRESENT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP THIS SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD TO HALF THE CWA AS MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
DROP POPS AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW FOR SUN...BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL
HAVE RELAXED SOME. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN INTO SUN...AND
HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME AS A RESULT. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
SEEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND FOR MON...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MUCH OF MON INTO MON NIGHT. BY TUE HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFS A
DRIER TREND...WHILE THE EURO A WETTER TREND. BOTH DO HAVE MOST OF
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MORE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...THEN TRENDS DRIER LATE IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE DRIER APPROACH
OF THE GFS. THE GFS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF
AR...WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE MO AND AR
STATE LINE. LATE MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THESE TRENDS AND BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND
NORMAL VALUES...THEN WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  87  72 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         84  72  89  73 /  90  20  40  20
HARRISON AR       83  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  88  73 /  30  20  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  71  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  71  88  74 /  90  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  87  72 /  30  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  67  87  70 /  20  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        82  69  87  71 /  20  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  70  88  72 /  50  20  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  70  89  71 /  20  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      85  70  88  71 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KLZK 041818
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
118 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXIT THE STATE TO THE
SOUTH WITH MORE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW
ARKANSAS AND PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY AS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. EXCEPT AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AR. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AR. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY
AND MOVE THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT. EQUIPMENT ERRORS AT KHRO AND
HAVE USED AMD NOT SKED. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...WHILE NW TO NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
NORTHERN AR. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS TRAINING OVER AREAS FROM PIKE TO DALLAS
TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. DO THINK IN THE NEAR TERM THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES SINCE LATE FRI EVENING...AND HAVE
POSTED SOME FFW AS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PRESENT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP THIS SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD TO HALF THE CWA AS MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
DROP POPS AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW FOR SUN...BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL
HAVE RELAXED SOME. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN INTO SUN...AND
HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME AS A RESULT. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
SEEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND FOR MON...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MUCH OF MON INTO MON NIGHT. BY TUE HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFS A
DRIER TREND...WHILE THE EURO A WETTER TREND. BOTH DO HAVE MOST OF
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MORE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...THEN TRENDS DRIER LATE IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE DRIER APPROACH
OF THE GFS. THE GFS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF
AR...WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE MO AND AR
STATE LINE. LATE MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THESE TRENDS AND BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND
NORMAL VALUES...THEN WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  87  72 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         84  72  89  73 /  90  20  40  20
HARRISON AR       83  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  88  73 /  30  20  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  71  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  71  88  74 /  90  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  87  72 /  30  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  67  87  70 /  20  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        82  69  87  71 /  20  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  70  88  72 /  50  20  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  70  89  71 /  20  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      85  70  88  71 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56
AVIATION...99








000
FXUS64 KLZK 041623
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1123 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW
ARKANSAS AND PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT GO AWAY COMPLETELY AS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. EXCEPT AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AR. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AR. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY
AND MOVE THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT. EQUIPMENT ERRORS AT KHRO AND
HAVE USED AMD NOT SKED. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...WHILE NW TO NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
NORTHERN AR. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS TRAINING OVER AREAS FROM PIKE TO DALLAS
TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. DO THINK IN THE NEAR TERM THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES SINCE LATE FRI EVENING...AND HAVE
POSTED SOME FFW AS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PRESENT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP THIS SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD TO HALF THE CWA AS MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
DROP POPS AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW FOR SUN...BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL
HAVE RELAXED SOME. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN INTO SUN...AND
HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME AS A RESULT. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
SEEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND FOR MON...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MUCH OF MON INTO MON NIGHT. BY TUE HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFS A
DRIER TREND...WHILE THE EURO A WETTER TREND. BOTH DO HAVE MOST OF
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MORE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...THEN TRENDS DRIER LATE IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE DRIER APPROACH
OF THE GFS. THE GFS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF
AR...WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE MO AND AR
STATE LINE. LATE MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THESE TRENDS AND BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND
NORMAL VALUES...THEN WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  87  72 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         84  72  89  73 /  90  20  40  20
HARRISON AR       83  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  88  73 /  30  20  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  71  89  73 /  30  20  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     83  71  88  74 /  90  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  87  72 /  30  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  67  87  70 /  20  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        82  69  87  71 /  20  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  70  88  72 /  50  20  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  70  89  71 /  20  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      85  70  88  71 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 041139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. EXCEPT AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AR. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AR. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY
AND MOVE THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT. EQUIPMENT ERRORS AT KHRO AND
HAVE USED AMD NOT SKED. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...WHILE NW TO NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
NORTHERN AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS TRAINING OVER AREAS FROM PIKE TO DALLAS
TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. DO THINK IN THE NEAR TERM THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES SINCE LATE FRI EVENING...AND HAVE
POSTED SOME FFW AS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PRESENT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP THIS SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD TO HALF THE CWA AS MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
DROP POPS AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW FOR SUN...BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL
HAVE RELAXED SOME. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN INTO SUN...AND
HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME AS A RESULT. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
SEEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND FOR MON...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MUCH OF MON INTO MON NIGHT. BY TUE HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFS A
DRIER TREND...WHILE THE EURO A WETTER TREND. BOTH DO HAVE MOST OF
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MORE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...THEN TRENDS DRIER LATE IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE DRIER APPROACH
OF THE GFS. THE GFS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF
AR...WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE MO AND AR
STATE LINE. LATE MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THESE TRENDS AND BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND
NORMAL VALUES...THEN WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  68  87  72 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         87  72  89  73 /  60  20  40  20
HARRISON AR       84  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  88  73 /  40  20  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  71  89  73 /  40  20  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  71  88  74 /  70  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  87  72 /  40  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  67  87  70 /  20  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  87  71 /  30  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  70  88  72 /  50  20  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  70  89  71 /  20  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  88  71 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 041139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. EXCEPT AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AR. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AR. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY
AND MOVE THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT. EQUIPMENT ERRORS AT KHRO AND
HAVE USED AMD NOT SKED. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...WHILE NW TO NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
NORTHERN AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS TRAINING OVER AREAS FROM PIKE TO DALLAS
TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. DO THINK IN THE NEAR TERM THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES SINCE LATE FRI EVENING...AND HAVE
POSTED SOME FFW AS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PRESENT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP THIS SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD TO HALF THE CWA AS MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
DROP POPS AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW FOR SUN...BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL
HAVE RELAXED SOME. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN INTO SUN...AND
HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME AS A RESULT. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
SEEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND FOR MON...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MUCH OF MON INTO MON NIGHT. BY TUE HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFS A
DRIER TREND...WHILE THE EURO A WETTER TREND. BOTH DO HAVE MOST OF
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MORE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...THEN TRENDS DRIER LATE IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE DRIER APPROACH
OF THE GFS. THE GFS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF
AR...WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE MO AND AR
STATE LINE. LATE MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THESE TRENDS AND BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND
NORMAL VALUES...THEN WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  68  87  72 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         87  72  89  73 /  60  20  40  20
HARRISON AR       84  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  88  73 /  40  20  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  71  89  73 /  40  20  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  71  88  74 /  70  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  87  72 /  40  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  67  87  70 /  20  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  87  71 /  30  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  70  88  72 /  50  20  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  70  89  71 /  20  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  88  71 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59










000
FXUS64 KLZK 041139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. EXCEPT AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AR. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AR. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY
AND MOVE THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT. EQUIPMENT ERRORS AT KHRO AND
HAVE USED AMD NOT SKED. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...WHILE NW TO NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
NORTHERN AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS TRAINING OVER AREAS FROM PIKE TO DALLAS
TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. DO THINK IN THE NEAR TERM THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES SINCE LATE FRI EVENING...AND HAVE
POSTED SOME FFW AS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PRESENT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP THIS SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD TO HALF THE CWA AS MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
DROP POPS AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW FOR SUN...BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL
HAVE RELAXED SOME. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN INTO SUN...AND
HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME AS A RESULT. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
SEEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND FOR MON...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MUCH OF MON INTO MON NIGHT. BY TUE HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFS A
DRIER TREND...WHILE THE EURO A WETTER TREND. BOTH DO HAVE MOST OF
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MORE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...THEN TRENDS DRIER LATE IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE DRIER APPROACH
OF THE GFS. THE GFS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF
AR...WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE MO AND AR
STATE LINE. LATE MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THESE TRENDS AND BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND
NORMAL VALUES...THEN WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  68  87  72 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         87  72  89  73 /  60  20  40  20
HARRISON AR       84  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  88  73 /  40  20  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  71  89  73 /  40  20  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  71  88  74 /  70  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  87  72 /  40  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  67  87  70 /  20  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  87  71 /  30  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  70  88  72 /  50  20  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  70  89  71 /  20  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  88  71 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 041139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN TODAY. EXCEPT AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AR. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AR. THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH TODAY
AND MOVE THE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IT. EQUIPMENT ERRORS AT KHRO AND
HAVE USED AMD NOT SKED. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR...WHILE NW TO NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
NORTHERN AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS TRAINING OVER AREAS FROM PIKE TO DALLAS
TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. DO THINK IN THE NEAR TERM THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES SINCE LATE FRI EVENING...AND HAVE
POSTED SOME FFW AS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PRESENT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP THIS SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD TO HALF THE CWA AS MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
DROP POPS AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW FOR SUN...BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL
HAVE RELAXED SOME. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN INTO SUN...AND
HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME AS A RESULT. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
SEEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND FOR MON...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MUCH OF MON INTO MON NIGHT. BY TUE HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFS A
DRIER TREND...WHILE THE EURO A WETTER TREND. BOTH DO HAVE MOST OF
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MORE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...THEN TRENDS DRIER LATE IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE DRIER APPROACH
OF THE GFS. THE GFS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF
AR...WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE MO AND AR
STATE LINE. LATE MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THESE TRENDS AND BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND
NORMAL VALUES...THEN WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  68  87  72 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         87  72  89  73 /  60  20  40  20
HARRISON AR       84  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  88  73 /  40  20  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  71  89  73 /  40  20  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  71  88  74 /  70  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  87  72 /  40  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  67  87  70 /  20  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  87  71 /  30  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  70  88  72 /  50  20  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  70  89  71 /  20  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  88  71 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59










000
FXUS64 KLZK 040747
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS TRAINING OVER AREAS FROM PIKE TO DALLAS
TO LINCOLN COUNTIES. DO THINK IN THE NEAR TERM THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 4 INCHES SINCE LATE FRI EVENING...AND HAVE
POSTED SOME FFW AS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
OTHERWISE...SOME STRONG WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT WILL BE
ISOLATED HOWEVER. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AS LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH NEAR SFC MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PRESENT.

LOOKS LIKE THE FOCUS FOR MOST PRECIP THIS SAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
THIRD TO HALF THE CWA AS MOST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THIS
PORTION OF THE STATE. FURTHER NORTH...THINK THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
DROP POPS AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD BE SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS A BIT WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON THAN ON FRI AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WHERE PRECIP WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW FOR SUN...BUT OVERALL FLOW WILL
HAVE RELAXED SOME. AS A RESULT...THINKING THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN INTO SUN...AND
HAVE REDUCED POPS SOME AS A RESULT. SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
SEEN FOR SUN NIGHT AND FOR MON...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR MUCH OF MON INTO MON NIGHT. BY TUE HOWEVER...A NEW FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN TO END THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFS A
DRIER TREND...WHILE THE EURO A WETTER TREND. BOTH DO HAVE MOST OF
THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EXTENDED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MORE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EURO KEEPS SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST
STARTS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
AR...THEN TRENDS DRIER LATE IN THE EXTENDED ALONG THE DRIER APPROACH
OF THE GFS. THE GFS KEEPS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF
AR...WHILE THE EURO SAGS IT FARTHER SOUTH TO NEAR THE MO AND AR
STATE LINE. LATE MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THESE TRENDS AND BETTER
CONFIDENCE IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND
NORMAL VALUES...THEN WARM...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AR...THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     84  68  87  72 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         87  72  89  73 /  60  20  40  20
HARRISON AR       84  67  86  69 /  20  20  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    86  71  88  73 /  40  20  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  86  71  89  73 /  40  20  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  71  88  74 /  70  20  40  20
MOUNT IDA AR      86  70  87  72 /  40  30  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  67  87  70 /  20  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  87  71 /  30  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     85  70  88  72 /  50  20  30  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  70  89  71 /  20  20  30  20
SEARCY AR         84  69  88  71 /  30  20  30  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  88  71 /  50  20  30  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59







000
FXUS64 KLZK 040538 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPT ISOLATED
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AR. ALSO AREAS OF PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT...WHILE LIGHT NW TO
NE OVER NORTHERN AR. SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE VFR CEILINGS WITH
ISOLATED MVFR WITH FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WINDS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE N TO E OVER NORTHERN AR...WHILE VARIABLE TO S TO
SW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO 12 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE TODAY
BRINGING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A MATTER OF JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. CLOUDS HAVE
REMAINED OVERCAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD REASONABLY IN CHECK WITH READINGS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DO EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO NOT LOOK AS WET AS
IT ONCE DID. CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...THOUGH IT DOES STILL CONTINUE TO LOOK THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENING AND RAIN CHANCES...WHILE NOT
ZERO...DECREASING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE
STATE IN THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DID GO AND
INCREASE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TO COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING OF POPS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THROUGH
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WAVE DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT ONTO THE STATE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UNTIL RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EVEN SO.. DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 040538 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. EXCEPT ISOLATED
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AR. ALSO AREAS OF PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT...WHILE LIGHT NW TO
NE OVER NORTHERN AR. SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE VFR CEILINGS WITH
ISOLATED MVFR WITH FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WINDS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE N TO E OVER NORTHERN AR...WHILE VARIABLE TO S TO
SW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO 12 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE TODAY
BRINGING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A MATTER OF JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. CLOUDS HAVE
REMAINED OVERCAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD REASONABLY IN CHECK WITH READINGS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DO EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO NOT LOOK AS WET AS
IT ONCE DID. CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...THOUGH IT DOES STILL CONTINUE TO LOOK THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENING AND RAIN CHANCES...WHILE NOT
ZERO...DECREASING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE
STATE IN THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DID GO AND
INCREASE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TO COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING OF POPS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THROUGH
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WAVE DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT ONTO THE STATE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UNTIL RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EVEN SO.. DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58









000
FXUS64 KLZK 032333 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING A DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SITES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT FELL TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CONVECTION LOCATION
SATURDAY...AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE TODAY
BRINGING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A MATTER OF JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. CLOUDS HAVE
REMAINED OVERCAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD REASONABLY IN CHECK WITH READINGS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DO EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO NOT LOOK AS WET AS
IT ONCE DID. CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...THOUGH IT DOES STILL CONTINUE TO LOOK THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENING AND RAIN CHANCES...WHILE NOT
ZERO...DECREASING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE
STATE IN THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DID GO AND
INCREASE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TO COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING OF POPS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THROUGH
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WAVE DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT ONTO THE STATE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UNTIL RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EVEN SO.. DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 032333 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING A DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SITES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT FELL TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CONVECTION LOCATION
SATURDAY...AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE TODAY
BRINGING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A MATTER OF JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. CLOUDS HAVE
REMAINED OVERCAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD REASONABLY IN CHECK WITH READINGS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DO EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO NOT LOOK AS WET AS
IT ONCE DID. CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...THOUGH IT DOES STILL CONTINUE TO LOOK THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENING AND RAIN CHANCES...WHILE NOT
ZERO...DECREASING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE
STATE IN THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DID GO AND
INCREASE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TO COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING OF POPS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THROUGH
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WAVE DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT ONTO THE STATE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UNTIL RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EVEN SO.. DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 031937
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE TODAY
BRINGING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A MATTER OF JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. CLOUDS HAVE
REMAINED OVERCAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD REASONABLY IN CHECK WITH READINGS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DO EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO NOT LOOK AS WET AS
IT ONCE DID. CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...THOUGH IT DOES STILL CONTINUE TO LOOK THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENING AND RAIN CHANCES...WHILE NOT
ZERO...DECREASING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE
STATE IN THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DID GO AND
INCREASE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TO COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING OF POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THROUGH
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WAVE DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT ONTO THE STATE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UNTIL RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EVEN SO.. DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  82  66  86 /  50  30  10  30
CAMDEN AR         71  86  72  88 /  50  50  50  40
HARRISON AR       64  83  65  84 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  85  72  88 /  60  40  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  86  71  87 /  60  40  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     72  84  72  88 /  50  50  50  40
MOUNT IDA AR      69  85  70  86 /  60  40  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  84  67  86 /  40  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        68  83  66  86 /  50  30  10  30
PINE BLUFF AR     70  84  71  87 /  60  40  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  85  70  89 /  60  30  20  30
SEARCY AR         68  82  69  87 /  60  40  10  30
STUTTGART AR      69  83  71  87 /  60  40  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 031937
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE TODAY
BRINGING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A MATTER OF JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS. THIS PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. CLOUDS HAVE
REMAINED OVERCAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER A BIT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD REASONABLY IN CHECK WITH READINGS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DO EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO NOT LOOK AS WET AS
IT ONCE DID. CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...THOUGH IT DOES STILL CONTINUE TO LOOK THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENING AND RAIN CHANCES...WHILE NOT
ZERO...DECREASING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE
STATE IN THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DID GO AND
INCREASE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TO COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING OF POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THROUGH
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WAVE DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT ONTO THE STATE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO
THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UNTIL RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EVEN SO.. DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
MOST AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  82  66  86 /  50  30  10  30
CAMDEN AR         71  86  72  88 /  50  50  50  40
HARRISON AR       64  83  65  84 /  40  20  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  85  72  88 /  60  40  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  86  71  87 /  60  40  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     72  84  72  88 /  50  50  50  40
MOUNT IDA AR      69  85  70  86 /  60  40  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  84  67  86 /  40  20  10  30
NEWPORT AR        68  83  66  86 /  50  30  10  30
PINE BLUFF AR     70  84  71  87 /  60  40  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  85  70  89 /  60  30  20  30
SEARCY AR         68  82  69  87 /  60  40  10  30
STUTTGART AR      69  83  71  87 /  60  40  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 031753
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...

A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS.
DID DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. ALSO
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE LATER TO A
BIT MORE ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH THE STORMS. USED A
COMBINATION OF VCSH AND VCTS...THEN GROUPS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
EFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST OF
AR...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  68  83  68 /  60  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         81  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  60  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     82  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  80  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  67  84  68 /  60  50  20  10
NEWPORT AR        80  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     81  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         82  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      83  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 031753
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR TO
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...

A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS.
DID DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. ALSO
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE LATER TO A
BIT MORE ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH THE STORMS. USED A
COMBINATION OF VCSH AND VCTS...THEN GROUPS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
EFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST OF
AR...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  68  83  68 /  60  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         81  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  60  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     82  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  80  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  67  84  68 /  60  50  20  10
NEWPORT AR        80  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     81  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         82  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      83  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56









000
FXUS64 KLZK 031542
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1042 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS.
DID DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. ALSO
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE LATER TO A
BIT MORE ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH THE STORMS. USED A
COMBINATION OF VCSH AND VCTS...THEN GROUPS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
EFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST OF
AR...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  68  83  68 /  60  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         81  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  60  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     82  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  80  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  67  84  68 /  60  50  20  10
NEWPORT AR        80  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     81  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         82  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      83  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 031542
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1042 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS.
DID DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. ALSO
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE LATER TO A
BIT MORE ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH THE STORMS. USED A
COMBINATION OF VCSH AND VCTS...THEN GROUPS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
EFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST OF
AR...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  68  83  68 /  60  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         81  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  60  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     82  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  80  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  67  84  68 /  60  50  20  10
NEWPORT AR        80  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     81  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         82  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      83  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 031542
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1042 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND TEMPERATURES TRENDS.
DID DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. ALSO
LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE LATER TO A
BIT MORE ISOLATED THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH THE STORMS. USED A
COMBINATION OF VCSH AND VCTS...THEN GROUPS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
EFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST OF
AR...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  68  83  68 /  60  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         81  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  60  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  83  71  85  71 /  80  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     82  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  80  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  80  67  84  68 /  60  50  20  10
NEWPORT AR        80  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     81  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   83  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         82  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      83  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 031125 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH THE STORMS. USED A
COMBINATION OF VCSH AND VCTS...THEN GROUPS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
EFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST OF
AR...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  83  68 /  70  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         85  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  70  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  84  68 /  70  50  20  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         83  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59










000
FXUS64 KLZK 031125 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH THE STORMS. USED A
COMBINATION OF VCSH AND VCTS...THEN GROUPS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
EFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST OF
AR...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  83  68 /  70  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         85  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  70  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  84  68 /  70  50  20  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         83  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 031125 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH THE STORMS. USED A
COMBINATION OF VCSH AND VCTS...THEN GROUPS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
EFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST OF
AR...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  83  68 /  70  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         85  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  70  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  84  68 /  70  50  20  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         83  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59










000
FXUS64 KLZK 031125 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH THE STORMS. USED A
COMBINATION OF VCSH AND VCTS...THEN GROUPS WHERE CONVECTION WILL
EFFECT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST OF
AR...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  83  68 /  70  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         85  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  70  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  84  68 /  70  50  20  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         83  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 030732
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  83  68 /  70  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         85  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  70  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  84  68 /  70  50  20  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         83  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59







000
FXUS64 KLZK 030732
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  83  68 /  70  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         85  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  70  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  84  68 /  70  50  20  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         83  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 030732
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  83  68 /  70  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         85  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  70  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  84  68 /  70  50  20  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         83  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59







000
FXUS64 KLZK 030732
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  83  68 /  70  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         85  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  70  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  84  68 /  70  50  20  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         83  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 030541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL AR AREAS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. USED VCSH AND VCTS
OVERALL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF CONVECTION. USED TEMPO
GROUPS OVER CENTRAL PARTS. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF AR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN
AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON FRIDAY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...59











000
FXUS64 KLZK 030541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL AR AREAS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. USED VCSH AND VCTS
OVERALL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF CONVECTION. USED TEMPO
GROUPS OVER CENTRAL PARTS. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF AR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN
AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON FRIDAY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...59










000
FXUS64 KLZK 030541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL AR AREAS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. USED VCSH AND VCTS
OVERALL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF CONVECTION. USED TEMPO
GROUPS OVER CENTRAL PARTS. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF AR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN
AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON FRIDAY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...59











000
FXUS64 KLZK 030541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL AR AREAS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. USED VCSH AND VCTS
OVERALL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF CONVECTION. USED TEMPO
GROUPS OVER CENTRAL PARTS. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF AR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN
AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON FRIDAY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...59










000
FXUS64 KLZK 022359 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. STORMS WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY HELP PUSH THE FRONT
INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS KLIT...KHOT...AND KPBF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK IT
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KLLQ SO LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE KLLQ TAF. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION
AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ALONG THE DISPLACED FRONT SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  70  82  69 /  70  70  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  76  87  73 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  67  80  66 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  74  83  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  74  84  70 /  40  70  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  87  74 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  69 /  30  70  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  68  80  67 /  60  50  60  40
NEWPORT AR        88  71  83  69 /  70  70  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  74  85  71 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  72  83  69 /  50  70  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  70  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  70  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 022359 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. STORMS WILL THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY HELP PUSH THE FRONT
INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS KLIT...KHOT...AND KPBF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK IT
WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KLLQ SO LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
OUT OF THE KLLQ TAF. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL IN CONVECTION
AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ALONG THE DISPLACED FRONT SHOULD BEGIN AGAIN LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  70  82  69 /  70  70  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  76  87  73 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  67  80  66 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  74  83  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  74  84  70 /  40  70  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  87  74 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  69 /  30  70  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  68  80  67 /  60  50  60  40
NEWPORT AR        88  71  83  69 /  70  70  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  74  85  71 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  72  83  69 /  50  70  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  70  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  70  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 021934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  82  69  82 /  70  60  50  50
CAMDEN AR         76  87  73  85 /  50  50  50  60
HARRISON AR       67  80  66  81 /  50  60  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  83  70  83 /  60  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  84  70  83 /  70  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     76  87  74  84 /  60  60  50  60
MOUNT IDA AR      74  82  69  83 /  70  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  80  67  82 /  50  60  40  50
NEWPORT AR        71  83  69  82 /  70  60  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  71  83 /  60  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  83  69  83 /  70  60  60  50
SEARCY AR         72  83  69  82 /  70  60  60  50
STUTTGART AR      73  84  70  82 /  70  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...65









000
FXUS64 KLZK 021934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.
&&

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.
&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  82  69  82 /  70  60  50  50
CAMDEN AR         76  87  73  85 /  50  50  50  60
HARRISON AR       67  80  66  81 /  50  60  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  83  70  83 /  60  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  84  70  83 /  70  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     76  87  74  84 /  60  60  50  60
MOUNT IDA AR      74  82  69  83 /  70  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  80  67  82 /  50  60  40  50
NEWPORT AR        71  83  69  82 /  70  60  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     74  85  71  83 /  60  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  83  69  83 /  70  60  60  50
SEARCY AR         72  83  69  82 /  70  60  60  50
STUTTGART AR      73  84  70  82 /  70  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...65










000
FXUS64 KLZK 021813
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
113 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z
WHERE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FIRST...SOME FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
AREA WILL GRADUALLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE MORNING. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS...ONLY USED VCSH
AND VCTS INITIALLY...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KBPK.
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
SEEN OVER AR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 021813
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
113 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z
WHERE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FIRST...SOME FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
AREA WILL GRADUALLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE MORNING. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS...ONLY USED VCSH
AND VCTS INITIALLY...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KBPK.
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
SEEN OVER AR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 021813
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
113 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z
WHERE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FIRST...SOME FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
AREA WILL GRADUALLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE MORNING. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS...ONLY USED VCSH
AND VCTS INITIALLY...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KBPK.
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
SEEN OVER AR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 021813
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
113 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. DESPITE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z TO 16Z
WHERE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS. ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FIRST...SOME FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
AREA WILL GRADUALLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE MORNING. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS...ONLY USED VCSH
AND VCTS INITIALLY...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KBPK.
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
SEEN OVER AR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 021146 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
AREA WILL GRADUALLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE MORNING. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS...ONLY USED VCSH
AND VCTS INITIALLY...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KBPK.
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
SEEN OVER AR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59










000
FXUS64 KLZK 021146 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
AREA WILL GRADUALLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE MORNING. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS...ONLY USED VCSH
AND VCTS INITIALLY...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KBPK.
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
SEEN OVER AR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 021146 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
AREA WILL GRADUALLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE MORNING. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS...ONLY USED VCSH
AND VCTS INITIALLY...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KBPK.
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
SEEN OVER AR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 021146 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE
AREA WILL GRADUALLY REACH NORTH CENTRAL AR THROUGH THE MORNING. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF LOCATION AND WEAKENING TRENDS...ONLY USED VCSH
AND VCTS INITIALLY...WHILE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT KBPK.
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
SEEN OVER AR. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME A BIT MORE ELEVATED AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59










000
FXUS64 KLZK 020730
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 020730
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 020730
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO AGAIN THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS DROPPING GRADUALLY SOUTH TO SE OVER TIME AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SE IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. HAVE POPS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS NRN AND NERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THIS ACTIVITY AND UPPER
WAVE DROPS SE OVER TIME.

THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION MAY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE OVER TIME AS IT
DROPS SOUTH INTO AR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE DROPS SE...AND
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. DO THINK
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS...AND AS SUCH HAVE INCREASING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST AS A RESULT. SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD BE SEEN...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO THE NE...GIVING AR NW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUCKLE SOME...SENDING MORE POTENT UPPER WAVES OVER THE
STATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE FOR FRI INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
FALL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT
ISSUE A FFA AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...WARM TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING
WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. BY FRI AND
ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO THE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA MORE FROM THE WEST...AND LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT MAINLY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION...
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ON WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES
SAG SOUTH SOME OVER CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. MODELS GENERALLY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE WARMER
OVER THE SOUTH AND THOSE AREAS THAT SEE LESS CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  71  83  69 /  70  60  60  50
CAMDEN AR         92  77  88  74 /  20  50  50  50
HARRISON AR       86  68  81  67 /  60  50  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  75  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  75  85  71 /  40  60  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  89  75 /  20  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      89  74  82  70 /  30  60  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  69  82  68 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        88  71  84  70 /  70  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     92  75  87  72 /  20  60  60  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   91  73  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
SEARCY AR         90  72  83  69 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      90  73  84  70 /  30  60  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59







000
FXUS64 KLZK 020541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER MO WILL MOVE SOUTH...AND EFFECT NORTHERN AR AND HAVE
USED VCSH AND VCTS INITIALLY...THEN A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WITH STORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE
SEEN. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SE...REACHING
CENTRAL AR AFTER SUNRISE. AGAIN USED VCSH TO VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN OVER AR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN BECOME A BIT
MORE ELEVATED ON THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
25 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLZK 020541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER MO WILL MOVE SOUTH...AND EFFECT NORTHERN AR AND HAVE
USED VCSH AND VCTS INITIALLY...THEN A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WITH STORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE
SEEN. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SE...REACHING
CENTRAL AR AFTER SUNRISE. AGAIN USED VCSH TO VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN OVER AR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN BECOME A BIT
MORE ELEVATED ON THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
25 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLZK 020541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER MO WILL MOVE SOUTH...AND EFFECT NORTHERN AR AND HAVE
USED VCSH AND VCTS INITIALLY...THEN A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WITH STORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE
SEEN. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SE...REACHING
CENTRAL AR AFTER SUNRISE. AGAIN USED VCSH TO VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN OVER AR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN BECOME A BIT
MORE ELEVATED ON THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
25 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLZK 020541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER MO WILL MOVE SOUTH...AND EFFECT NORTHERN AR AND HAVE
USED VCSH AND VCTS INITIALLY...THEN A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR
CEILINGS WITH STORMS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY BE
SEEN. THE STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SE...REACHING
CENTRAL AR AFTER SUNRISE. AGAIN USED VCSH TO VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY. ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY BE SEEN OVER AR IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THEN BECOME A BIT
MORE ELEVATED ON THURSDAY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO
25 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KLZK 020025 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT
NORTHERN SITES. REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND AND TO THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ALBEIT IT IN A WEAKENED STATE MOST LIKELY...AT KHRO AND
KBPK AROUND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST HAVE VCTS GOING AT KHRO AND KBPK BETWEEN
07Z-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK THU...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

LASTLY...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 25KT RANGE MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       89  73  86  68 /  50  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  91  74 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     92  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  75  89  73 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  87  69 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  75  90  72 /  30  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  90  72 /  30  40  40  60
STUTTGART AR      91  75  90  73 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 020025 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT
NORTHERN SITES. REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND AND TO THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ALBEIT IT IN A WEAKENED STATE MOST LIKELY...AT KHRO AND
KBPK AROUND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST HAVE VCTS GOING AT KHRO AND KBPK BETWEEN
07Z-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK THU...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

LASTLY...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 25KT RANGE MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       89  73  86  68 /  50  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  91  74 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     92  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  75  89  73 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  87  69 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  75  90  72 /  30  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  90  72 /  30  40  40  60
STUTTGART AR      91  75  90  73 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 020025 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT
NORTHERN SITES. REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND AND TO THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ALBEIT IT IN A WEAKENED STATE MOST LIKELY...AT KHRO AND
KBPK AROUND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST HAVE VCTS GOING AT KHRO AND KBPK BETWEEN
07Z-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK THU...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

LASTLY...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 25KT RANGE MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       89  73  86  68 /  50  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  91  74 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     92  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  75  89  73 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  87  69 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  75  90  72 /  30  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  90  72 /  30  40  40  60
STUTTGART AR      91  75  90  73 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 020025 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT
NORTHERN SITES. REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AROUND AND TO THE EAST OF KANSAS CITY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ALBEIT IT IN A WEAKENED STATE MOST LIKELY...AT KHRO AND
KBPK AROUND THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES THE
ARKANSAS BORDER...JUST HAVE VCTS GOING AT KHRO AND KBPK BETWEEN
07Z-12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A LULL IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK THU...BUT MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UP NORTH. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ONLY SOME FEW-SCT AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

LASTLY...BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE 25KT RANGE MOST EVERYWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED
APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO AND CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN
IN THIS FLOW THIS MORNING DID BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
BUT OVERALL IMPACTS WERE MINIMAL. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THIS
PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER ON
THANKS TO ANY LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. A BLEND OF FORECAST
SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES OVER THE STATE IN
THE COMING DAYS...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WITH CONSIDERABLY LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. STRONG WAVE ARRIVES FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
COVERAGE....AIDED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH CHANCE POPS NEEDED FOR SATURDAY WITH AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY LURKING ABOUT AND YET ANOTHER POTENT WAVE DROPPING DOWN.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS AS
SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND TIMING DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER SEEN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL CARRY OVER INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ARKANSAS REMAINS UNDER NW FLOW.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STALL. THIS WILL
KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  30
HARRISON AR       89  73  86  68 /  50  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  76  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  91  74 /  20  30  30  40
MONTICELLO AR     92  75  92  75 /  20  20  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      90  75  89  73 /  20  20  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  87  69 /  60  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        89  75  88  71 /  60  50  50  60
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  75  90  72 /  30  30  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  90  72 /  30  40  40  60
STUTTGART AR      91  75  90  73 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







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