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000
FXUS64 KLZK 311620 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION IN FAR WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW...AND WHILE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE AREA...
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP OVER
WESTERN AR...POLK COUNTY...AND THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE OTHER ELEMENTS IN FORECAST. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 311620 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION IN FAR WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW...AND WHILE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE AREA...
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP OVER
WESTERN AR...POLK COUNTY...AND THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE OTHER ELEMENTS IN FORECAST. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 311620 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. A DRIER AND MILDER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO AR WITH A NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION IN FAR WEST AR BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS.
SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...ALBEIT WEAK...IS SEEN IN THE UPPER NW
FLOW...AND WHILE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE AREA...
LOCALIZED INSTABILITY REMAINS WHERE THURSDAY CONVECTION SET UP OVER
WESTERN AR...POLK COUNTY...AND THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE OTHER ELEMENTS IN FORECAST. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 311133
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 311133
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER OVER THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  68  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     93  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      93  66  95  67 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        91  66  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  95  68 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 310850
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 310850
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVR SRN MO EARLY THIS MRNG...PROVIDING A
DRIER LGT E/NE WIND FLOW ACRS THE FA. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE
MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. SEEING SOME PTCHY DENSE FOG OVR W-CNTRL AR
WHERE RAIN FELL ON THU. WL CARRY A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FCST EARLY
IN THE PD.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WL RMN SITUATED ACRS AR THRU SAT...
RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS. WHILE TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...THE AIRMASS WL BE MORE TOLERABLE COMPARED TO JUST A
FEW DAYS AGO THANKS TO MUCH LOWER REL HUMIDITY LVLS.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A WEAK CDFNT SEWD TOWARD THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT JUST TO THE NE OF
AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR SUPPORT FOR
ORGANZIED CONVECTION THRU THE REST OF THE PD...SO A DRY FCST WL CONT.
TEMPS WL START TO INCRS BY SUN AND MON AS SWLY WINDS EVENTUALLY RETURN
TO THE MID SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY EVEN ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY.

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 90S BUT THE HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 310532
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CONVECTION AND
HEAT...THEN A DRIER AND A BIT MILDER PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS
TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE
SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT MILDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE
60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN TO SW AR NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
THE HOTTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED. DID UPDATE
FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST TO SW WHILE A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU GO EAST...THIS EVENING ALONG CURRENT
CONVECTION TRENDS. THEN A SLIGHT OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR WEST. ON
FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FILTER THE MILDER
AND DRIER AIR IN TO MOST OF AR...WHILE A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN TO SW AR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES. THE OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER
PATTERN DOES CHANGE AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES MORE
WEST...AND A UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT LOW AT
THIS TIME. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A DRY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE 5H RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH DOMINATE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WED. AS THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GEMERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT NOT IN THE TIMING OF
AND INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCES SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN OR
HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS LOW.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN DUE TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS...WEAK COLD FRONT...AND SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAIN CHANCES.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING A TAD
ON WED AND THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  68  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
CAMDEN AR         94  69  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       89  66  90  66 /  10   0  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  69  96  70 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  71  95  70 /  10   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     92  70  96  71 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      92  67  94  69 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  66  91  67 /  10   0  10   0
NEWPORT AR        92  68  92  68 /   0   0  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     92  70  95  70 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  68  95  69 /  10   0  10   0
SEARCY AR         93  68  94  69 /   0   0  10   0
STUTTGART AR      92  70  93  70 /   0   0  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 302301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CONVECTION AND
HEAT...THEN A DRIER AND A BIT MILDER PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS
TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE
SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT MILDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE
60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN TO SW AR NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
THE HOTTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED. DID UPDATE
FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST TO SW WHILE A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU GO EAST...THIS EVENING ALONG CURRENT
CONVECTION TRENDS. THEN A SLIGHT OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR WEST. ON
FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FILTER THE MILDER
AND DRIER AIR IN TO MOST OF AR...WHILE A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN TO SW AR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES. THE OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER
PATTERN DOES CHANGE AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES MORE
WEST...AND A UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT LOW AT
THIS TIME. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A DRY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE 5H RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH DOMINATE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WED. AS THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GEMERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT NOT IN THE TIMING OF
AND INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCES SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN OR
HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS LOW.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN DUE TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS...WEAK COLD FRONT...AND SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAIN CHANCES.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING A TAD
ON WED AND THU.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 302301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CONVECTION AND
HEAT...THEN A DRIER AND A BIT MILDER PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS
TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE
SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT MILDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE
60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN TO SW AR NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
THE HOTTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED. DID UPDATE
FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST TO SW WHILE A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU GO EAST...THIS EVENING ALONG CURRENT
CONVECTION TRENDS. THEN A SLIGHT OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR WEST. ON
FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FILTER THE MILDER
AND DRIER AIR IN TO MOST OF AR...WHILE A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN TO SW AR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES. THE OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER
PATTERN DOES CHANGE AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES MORE
WEST...AND A UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT LOW AT
THIS TIME. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A DRY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE 5H RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH DOMINATE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WED. AS THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GEMERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT NOT IN THE TIMING OF
AND INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCES SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN OR
HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS LOW.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN DUE TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS...WEAK COLD FRONT...AND SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAIN CHANCES.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING A TAD
ON WED AND THU.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 302301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CONVECTION AND
HEAT...THEN A DRIER AND A BIT MILDER PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS
TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE
SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT MILDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE
60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN TO SW AR NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
THE HOTTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED. DID UPDATE
FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST TO SW WHILE A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU GO EAST...THIS EVENING ALONG CURRENT
CONVECTION TRENDS. THEN A SLIGHT OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR WEST. ON
FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FILTER THE MILDER
AND DRIER AIR IN TO MOST OF AR...WHILE A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN TO SW AR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES. THE OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER
PATTERN DOES CHANGE AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES MORE
WEST...AND A UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT LOW AT
THIS TIME. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A DRY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE 5H RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH DOMINATE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WED. AS THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GEMERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT NOT IN THE TIMING OF
AND INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCES SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN OR
HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS LOW.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN DUE TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS...WEAK COLD FRONT...AND SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAIN CHANCES.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING A TAD
ON WED AND THU.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 302301 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
601 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CONVECTION AND
HEAT...THEN A DRIER AND A BIT MILDER PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS
TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE
SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT MILDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE
60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN TO SW AR NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
THE HOTTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED. DID UPDATE
FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST TO SW WHILE A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU GO EAST...THIS EVENING ALONG CURRENT
CONVECTION TRENDS. THEN A SLIGHT OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR WEST. ON
FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FILTER THE MILDER
AND DRIER AIR IN TO MOST OF AR...WHILE A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN TO SW AR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES. THE OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER
PATTERN DOES CHANGE AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES MORE
WEST...AND A UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT LOW AT
THIS TIME. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A DRY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE 5H RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH DOMINATE ON MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WED. AS THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GEMERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT NOT IN THE TIMING OF
AND INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCES SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN OR
HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS LOW.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN DUE TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS...WEAK COLD FRONT...AND SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAIN CHANCES.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING A TAD
ON WED AND THU.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 301949
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CONVECTION AND
HEAT...THEN A DRIER AND A BIT MILDER PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS
TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE
SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT MILDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE
60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN TO SW AR NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
THE HOTTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED. DID UPDATE
FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST TO SW WHILE A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU GO EAST...THIS EVENING ALONG CURRENT
CONVECTION TRENDS. THEN A SLIGHT OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR WEST. ON
FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FILTER THE MILDER
AND DRIER AIR IN TO MOST OF AR...WHILE A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN TO SW AR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. THE OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER PATTERN
DOES CHANGE AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES MORE
WEST...AND A UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT LOW AT
THIS TIME. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE 5H RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH DOMINATE ON MONDAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND
EARLY WED. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WED. AS THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GEMERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT NOT IN THE TIMING OF AND
INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCES SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS LOW.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN DUE TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS...WEAK COLD FRONT...AND SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAIN CHANCES.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING A TAD
ON WED AND THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  92  68  93 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         71  94  69  96 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       66  90  66  90 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  93  69  96 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  93  71  95 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  93  70  96 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      70  92  67  94 /  40  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  91  67  91 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        68  92  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  93  68  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         69  93  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  92  70  93 /  20   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...32





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301718
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT E OR NE WINDS PREVAIL. VERY ISOLATED SHRA OR
TSRA COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THE
CHANCES OF STORMS AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS VERY
REMOTE. RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS ALL AREAS AFTER
02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTH...TO THE 60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT...WITH THE WARMEST EXPECTED
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER SW AR AND WITH
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE THIS. MAY HAVE TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE A BIT FARTHER NORTH IF ANY OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER
SE KS AND NE OK MAKES IT TO AR. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME OF
THE POSSIBLE LIFT MOVING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY OVER SW TO W AR.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE ELEMENTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  92  68  93 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         71  94  69  96 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       66  90  66  90 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  93  69  96 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  93  71  95 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  93  70  96 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      70  92  67  94 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  91  67  91 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        68  92  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  93  68  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         69  93  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  92  70  93 /  20   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$

AVIATION...32





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301718
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT E OR NE WINDS PREVAIL. VERY ISOLATED SHRA OR
TSRA COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THE
CHANCES OF STORMS AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS VERY
REMOTE. RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS ALL AREAS AFTER
02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTH...TO THE 60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT...WITH THE WARMEST EXPECTED
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER SW AR AND WITH
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE THIS. MAY HAVE TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE A BIT FARTHER NORTH IF ANY OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER
SE KS AND NE OK MAKES IT TO AR. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME OF
THE POSSIBLE LIFT MOVING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY OVER SW TO W AR.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE ELEMENTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  92  68  93 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         71  94  69  96 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       66  90  66  90 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  93  69  96 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  93  71  95 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  93  70  96 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      70  92  67  94 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  91  67  91 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        68  92  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  93  68  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         69  93  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  92  70  93 /  20   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$

AVIATION...32




000
FXUS64 KLZK 301718
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT E OR NE WINDS PREVAIL. VERY ISOLATED SHRA OR
TSRA COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THE
CHANCES OF STORMS AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS VERY
REMOTE. RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS ALL AREAS AFTER
02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTH...TO THE 60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT...WITH THE WARMEST EXPECTED
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER SW AR AND WITH
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE THIS. MAY HAVE TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE A BIT FARTHER NORTH IF ANY OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER
SE KS AND NE OK MAKES IT TO AR. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME OF
THE POSSIBLE LIFT MOVING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY OVER SW TO W AR.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE ELEMENTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  92  68  93 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         71  94  69  96 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       66  90  66  90 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  93  69  96 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  93  71  95 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  93  70  96 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      70  92  67  94 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  91  67  91 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        68  92  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  93  68  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         69  93  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  92  70  93 /  20   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$

AVIATION...32




000
FXUS64 KLZK 301718
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT E OR NE WINDS PREVAIL. VERY ISOLATED SHRA OR
TSRA COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BUT THE
CHANCES OF STORMS AFFECTING ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS VERY
REMOTE. RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ACROSS ALL AREAS AFTER
02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTH...TO THE 60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT...WITH THE WARMEST EXPECTED
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER SW AR AND WITH
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE THIS. MAY HAVE TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE A BIT FARTHER NORTH IF ANY OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER
SE KS AND NE OK MAKES IT TO AR. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME OF
THE POSSIBLE LIFT MOVING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY OVER SW TO W AR.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE ELEMENTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  92  68  93 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         71  94  69  96 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       66  90  66  90 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  93  69  96 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  93  71  95 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  93  70  96 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      70  92  67  94 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  91  67  91 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        68  92  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  93  68  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         69  93  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  92  70  93 /  20   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$

AVIATION...32





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301539 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTH...TO THE 60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT...WITH THE WARMEST EXPECTED
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER SW AR AND WITH
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE THIS. MAY HAVE TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE A BIT FARTHER NORTH IF ANY OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER
SE KS AND NE OK MAKES IT TO AR. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME OF
THE POSSIBLE LIFT MOVING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY OVER SW TO W AR.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE ELEMENTS. (59)

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  71  94  69 /  30  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       87  66  90  66 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  93  71 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     97  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  70  92  67 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        90  68  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  70  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  70  93  68 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  92  70 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 301539 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE NORTH...TO THE 60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO LOWERED TEMPS A BIT...WITH THE WARMEST EXPECTED
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER SW AR AND WITH
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE THIS. MAY HAVE TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE A BIT FARTHER NORTH IF ANY OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW OVER
SE KS AND NE OK MAKES IT TO AR. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO SHOW SOME OF
THE POSSIBLE LIFT MOVING INTO AR...ESPECIALLY OVER SW TO W AR.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK AND LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE
TUNE ELEMENTS. (59)

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  71  94  69 /  30  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       87  66  90  66 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  93  71 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     97  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  70  92  67 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        90  68  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  70  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  70  93  68 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  92  70 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301138
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  71  94  69 /  30  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       87  66  90  66 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  93  71 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     97  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  70  92  67 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        90  68  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  70  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  70  93  68 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  92  70 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301138
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  71  94  69 /  30  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       87  66  90  66 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  93  71 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     97  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  70  92  67 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        90  68  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  70  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  70  93  68 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  92  70 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 301138
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  71  94  69 /  30  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       87  66  90  66 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  93  71 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     97  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  70  92  67 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        90  68  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  70  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  70  93  68 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  92  70 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301138
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  71  94  69 /  30  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       87  66  90  66 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  93  71 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     97  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  70  92  67 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        90  68  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  70  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  70  93  68 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  92  70 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 300901
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 300901
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. OTHER
THAN MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  70  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  72  94  70 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       86  68  89  68 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  72  93  72 /  20   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     96  72  92  72 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      94  71  92  68 /  30  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  69  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        91  70  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  92  71 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  71  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  70  92  71 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. OTHER
THAN MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  70  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  72  94  70 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       86  68  89  68 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  72  93  72 /  20   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     96  72  92  72 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      94  71  92  68 /  30  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  69  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        91  70  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  92  71 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  71  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  70  92  71 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 300548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...AND PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. OTHER
THAN MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  70  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  72  94  70 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       86  68  89  68 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  72  93  72 /  20   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     96  72  92  72 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      94  71  92  68 /  30  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  69  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        91  70  93  71 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  71  92  71 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  71  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  70 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  70  92  71 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 292259 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
559 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 292259 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
559 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 292259 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
559 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 292259 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
559 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291932
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  91  70  92 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         77  97  72  94 /  20  30  10   0
HARRISON AR       72  86  68  89 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  95  72  93 /  20  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  93  72  93 /  20  20   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     79  96  72  92 /  20  30  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      75  94  71  92 /  20  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  89  69  91 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  91  70  93 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     78  93  71  92 /  20  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  93  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         76  92  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      77  92  70  92 /  20  20   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...55




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291932
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  91  70  92 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         77  97  72  94 /  20  30  10   0
HARRISON AR       72  86  68  89 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  95  72  93 /  20  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  93  72  93 /  20  20   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     79  96  72  92 /  20  30  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      75  94  71  92 /  20  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  89  69  91 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  91  70  93 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     78  93  71  92 /  20  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  93  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         76  92  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      77  92  70  92 /  20  20   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...55




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291932
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING A NWLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAYTIME HIGHS...THE MOST NOTICABLE EFFECT WILL BE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONLY TOP 105 DEGRESS ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERING THIS...I WILL LET THE EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT REISSUE AT THIS TIME.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ABOVE...I HAVE
OPTED ONLY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARDS THE MID SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD.  ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  91  70  92 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         77  97  72  94 /  20  30  10   0
HARRISON AR       72  86  68  89 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  95  72  93 /  20  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  93  72  93 /  20  20   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     79  96  72  92 /  20  30  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      75  94  71  92 /  20  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  89  69  91 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        75  91  70  93 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     78  93  71  92 /  20  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  93  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         76  92  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      77  92  70  92 /  20  20   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...55





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291757
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SENDING A QUICK GRID AND ZONE UPDATE...AS A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AREAS
WHERE NO POPS WERE PRESENT. LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN
A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER...BECOMING NELY LATE.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  91  69  92 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  97  72  95 /  20  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       70  88  69  89 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  95  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  93  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  97  72  93 /  20  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  89  68  91 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        73  91  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  93  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  92  69  93 /  20  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  92  70  93 /  20  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291757
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SENDING A QUICK GRID AND ZONE UPDATE...AS A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AREAS
WHERE NO POPS WERE PRESENT. LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN
A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER...BECOMING NELY LATE.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  91  69  92 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  97  72  95 /  20  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       70  88  69  89 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  95  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  93  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  97  72  93 /  20  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  89  68  91 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        73  91  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  93  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  92  69  93 /  20  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  92  70  93 /  20  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291757
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SENDING A QUICK GRID AND ZONE UPDATE...AS A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AREAS
WHERE NO POPS WERE PRESENT. LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN
A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER...BECOMING NELY LATE.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  91  69  92 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  97  72  95 /  20  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       70  88  69  89 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  95  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  93  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  97  72  93 /  20  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  89  68  91 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        73  91  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  93  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  92  69  93 /  20  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  92  70  93 /  20  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291757
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1257 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
SENDING A QUICK GRID AND ZONE UPDATE...AS A FEW SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN AREAS
WHERE NO POPS WERE PRESENT. LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN
A NUMBER OF AREAS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...SO HAVE UPDATED FOR LOW
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER...BECOMING NELY LATE.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  91  69  92 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  97  72  95 /  20  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       70  88  69  89 /  20  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  95  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  93  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  97  72  93 /  20  30  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  89  68  91 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        73  91  69  93 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     75  94  71  93 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  93  71  94 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  92  69  93 /  20  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  92  70  93 /  20  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291729
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER...BECOMING NELY LATE.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         99  75  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  70  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  77  95  72 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  93  72 /  10  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  20  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      99  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  70  89  68 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        97  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         99  74  92  69 /  20  20  20   0
STUTTGART AR      98  75  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291729
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER...BECOMING NELY LATE.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         99  75  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  70  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  77  95  72 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  93  72 /  10  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  20  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      99  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  70  89  68 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        97  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         99  74  92  69 /  20  20  20   0
STUTTGART AR      98  75  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291729
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER...BECOMING NELY LATE.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         99  75  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  70  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  77  95  72 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  93  72 /  10  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  20  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      99  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  70  89  68 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        97  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         99  74  92  69 /  20  20  20   0
STUTTGART AR      98  75  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291729
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND FLOW WILL SLOWLY VEER...BECOMING NELY LATE.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         99  75  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  70  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  77  95  72 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  93  72 /  10  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  20  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      99  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  70  89  68 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        97  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         99  74  92  69 /  20  20  20   0
STUTTGART AR      98  75  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291147
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         99  75  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  70  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  77  95  72 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  93  72 /  10  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  20  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      99  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  70  89  68 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        97  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         99  74  92  69 /  20  20  20   0
STUTTGART AR      98  75  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291147
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         99  75  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  70  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  77  95  72 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  93  72 /  10  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  20  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      99  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  70  89  68 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        97  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         99  74  92  69 /  20  20  20   0
STUTTGART AR      98  75  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 291147
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         99  75  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  70  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  77  95  72 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  93  72 /  10  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  20  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      99  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  70  89  68 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        97  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         99  74  92  69 /  20  20  20   0
STUTTGART AR      98  75  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291147
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     98  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         99  75  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  70  88  69 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR   100  77  95  72 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  93  72 /  10  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  20  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      99  73  94  71 /  10  20  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  70  89  68 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        97  73  91  69 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  71 /  20  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  93  71 /  10  20  20  10
SEARCY AR         99  74  92  69 /  20  20  20   0
STUTTGART AR      98  75  92  70 /  20  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 290846
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-
MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 290846
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES ALOFT RMNS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH EARLY THIS
MRNG. EXEPCT PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF CONDS EXPERIENCED ON TUE OVR AR
TODAY AS UPR RDG PERSISTS...PRODUCING YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY
FOR AR. HEAT ADVYS/EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS RMN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE FA TODAY AND NO CHGS WERE MADE TO HEADLINES. HIGHS TODAY WL AGAIN
BE IN THE 90S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

THE UPR LVL PATTERN ACRS THE NATION WL BCM MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
COMING DAYS AT THE UPR RDG SHIFTS WWD...WITH A RESULTING UPR TROF
OVR THE ERN STATES. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE MID SOUTH
WL ALLOW A CDFNT TO DROP SWD THRU AR LATER TODAY AND TNGT. LIFT
ASSOCD WITH THE FNT WL BE LIMITED...SO WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL BE
NOTED WITH THE FROPA THRU TNGT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WL BE IN THE VCNTY OF SRN AR ON THU...WITH
LINGERING RAIN CHCS MENTIONED. MUCH DRIER AIR WL BE FILTERING SWD
INTO AR BEHIND THE FNT THU AND FRI. BY FRI AFTN...MOST LOCATIONS WL
SEE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. SFC HIGH PRES WL PERSIST
THRU SAT. THE NWLY UPR FLOW WL BRING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY INTO NRN AR
LATE SAT/SAT NGT WITH LTL IMPACT EXPECTED AS MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-
MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-STONE-VAN BUREN-
YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 290545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST SECTION. SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THIS FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     97  73  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR        100  75  98  71 /  10  10  30  10
HARRISON AR       93  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    99  77  96  72 /  10  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      98  73  96  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  70  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        96  73  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  69 /  10  10  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         98  73  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      97  74  91  68 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.


HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FULTON-IZARD-STONE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51




000
FXUS64 KLZK 290545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN THE
SOUTHWEST SECTION. SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THIS FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     97  73  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR        100  75  98  71 /  10  10  30  10
HARRISON AR       93  70  89  67 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    99  77  96  72 /  10  10  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  77  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     99  77  97  72 /  10  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      98  73  96  70 /  10  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  70  91  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        96  73  91  67 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     99  75  94  69 /  10  10  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   99  75  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         98  73  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      97  74  91  68 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.


HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FULTON-IZARD-STONE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 282258 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
558 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR FULTON-IZARD-STONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 282258 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
558 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR FULTON-IZARD-STONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 282258 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
558 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR FULTON-IZARD-STONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 282258 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
558 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR FULTON-IZARD-STONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57




000
FXUS64 KLZK 281956
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  97  73  91 /  10  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
HARRISON AR       74  93  70  89 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  99  77  96 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  79  99  77  94 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  99  77  97 /  10  10  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  94  70  91 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        77  96  73  91 /  10  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     76  99  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  99  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         75  98  73  92 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      77  97  74  91 /  10  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.


HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
FULTON-IZARD-STONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...55





000
FXUS64 KLZK 281956
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

DESPITE SEEING A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY IN ARKANSAS...HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS FIRE IN THE HEAT OF DAY TODAY AND IF ANY WERE
TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...YET NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS SEEN ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ONCE AGAIN
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR MANY OF THE SAME LOCATIONS IT WAS OUT
TODAY...AND UPGRADED THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY TO TOP 110 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEPART TO THE WEST AND ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE STATE. VERY LITTLE LIFT WILL BE SEEN
WITH THE FRONT AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF THE WETTEST OF THE SOLUTIONS.

WHAT WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOTICEABLY DRIER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY REMAIN
IN THE 80S WITH DEWPONITS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPLICIT SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SOME AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
ALIGNED ALONG THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME DEEPENING A TROUGH OVER THE
HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. OVERALL...LOW LEVEL PATTERNS
WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED...BUT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE WELL LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  97  73  91 /  10  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
HARRISON AR       74  93  70  89 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  99  77  96 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  79  99  77  94 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  99  77  97 /  10  10  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  98  73  96 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  94  70  91 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        77  96  73  91 /  10  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     76  99  75  94 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  99  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         75  98  73  92 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      77  97  74  91 /  10  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-DESHA-
DREW-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
PRAIRIE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-YELL.


HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
FULTON-IZARD-STONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...55




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