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000
FXUS64 KLZK 221146
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. MORNING FOG WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. AFTER SOME MORNING LIFR CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A WEAK CDFNT BISECTED THE FA THIS MRNG FM NW TO SE AR. THE BNDRY WAS
DEFINED PRIMARILY BY DEWPOINT TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S ACRS
THE NERN HALF OF THE FA AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG WAS
NOTED ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND N-CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG. PLAN TO CONT
A MENTION OF PTCHY FOG INTO THE MID MRNG HRS FOR AREAS TO THE W OF
THE FNT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

THE ASSOCD SFC RDG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVR THE MID SOUTH THRU THE
FCST PD. A WEAK UPR TROF WL APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE TNGT INTO
THU...BRINGING SMALL CHCS OF RAIN TO MAINLY NWRN PARTS OF THE FA.
THE SYS WL CONT TO WEAKEN AS IS APCHS THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
DRIER AIRMASS.

HIGHS TODAY WL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL
RESULT IN COOLER READINGS ON THU. BY FRI AND SAT...THE MERCURY WL
RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LVLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGH PRES
ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVR THE MID SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL BY SAT IN MANY AREAS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BY MONDAY...THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  42  68  47 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76  46  71  46 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       71  45  69  51 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  46  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  46  69  49 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     74  46  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  45  71  45 /   0   0  20   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  43  69  49 /   0   0  20  10
NEWPORT AR        69  42  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  45  68  47 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  45  71  46 /   0   0  20  10
SEARCY AR         69  42  67  46 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      70  43  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 220855
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A WEAK CDFNT BISECTED THE FA THIS MRNG FM NW TO SE AR. THE BNDRY WAS
DEFINED PRIMARILY BY DEWPOINT TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S ACRS
THE NERN HALF OF THE FA AND IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG WAS
NOTED ACRS PARTS OF WRN AND N-CNTRL AR EARLY THIS MRNG. PLAN TO CONT
A MENTION OF PTCHY FOG INTO THE MID MRNG HRS FOR AREAS TO THE W OF
THE FNT. EARLY MRNG TEMPS RANGED FM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.

THE ASSOCD SFC RDG IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVR THE MID SOUTH THRU THE
FCST PD. A WEAK UPR TROF WL APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE TNGT INTO
THU...BRINGING SMALL CHCS OF RAIN TO MAINLY NWRN PARTS OF THE FA.
THE SYS WL CONT TO WEAKEN AS IS APCHS THE AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
DRIER AIRMASS.

HIGHS TODAY WL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WL
RESULT IN COOLER READINGS ON THU. BY FRI AND SAT...THE MERCURY WL
RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM LVLS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS HIGH PRES
ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVR THE MID SOUTH. STILL LOOKING AT AFTN HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL BY SAT IN MANY AREAS.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. BY MONDAY...THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51









000
FXUS64 KLZK 220522
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1222 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS MVFR. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL BECOME LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
AND FEW IF ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. COULD BE LOWER CONDITIONS INVOF THE
LAKES AT HOT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  44  68  48 /   0   0  20  10
CAMDEN AR         75  47  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       68  46  69  52 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  47  68  48 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  47  68  49 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  47  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  46  70  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  44  68  50 /   0  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        68  43  67  48 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  46  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  46  70  46 /   0  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         68  43  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      69  45  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 220522
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1222 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS MVFR. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL BECOME LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING
AND FEW IF ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. COULD BE LOWER CONDITIONS INVOF THE
LAKES AT HOT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  44  68  48 /   0   0  20  10
CAMDEN AR         75  47  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       68  46  69  52 /   0  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  47  68  48 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  47  68  49 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  47  69  47 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      74  46  70  45 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  44  68  50 /   0  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        68  43  67  48 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  46  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  46  70  46 /   0  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         68  43  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      69  45  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 212236 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
536 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. COULD BE LOWER CONDITIONS INVOF THE
LAKES AT HOT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 212236 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
536 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH MVFR FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. COULD BE LOWER CONDITIONS INVOF THE
LAKES AT HOT SPRINGS. OTHERWISE...FOG WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS OUT AT 2320Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 211926
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...WHILE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FRONT AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH.

THE FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR HOT
SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER NORTHERN AR...WHICH WAS DENSE IN
SPOTS. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE AREAS WILL BE IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS...AND SELECTED LOCATIONS LIKE KHOT...KADF...AND
KBPK. OTHERWISE...HAVE SEEN SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE HOLDING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF FOG FORMATION...DENSE IN
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AR. THEN MAINLY MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNSET AND OR SURFACE WINDS PICK UP TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND HELP BREAK IT UP. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AND CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE SHOWING TREND TO KEEP STRONGEST
LIFT NORTH...WHILE MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND ONE
INCH OR LESS. WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW TO W...WHILE ONLY
NORTHERN AR WILL SEE A NW WIND SHIFT FOR ABOUT 12 HRS..THEN BACK
TO THE SW. MODELS WASH THE FRONT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
WEATHER ASSOCIATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VERY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE PERIOD CONCLUDES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND BUT SINCE
WE ARE TALKING DAY SEVEN...A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WILL BE USED.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH TROUGHS ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY TO FLORIDA COME MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
AS MUCH AS TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS SYSTEM
DOES LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  68  44  66 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         51  74  48  73 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       48  69  47  67 /   0   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  72  48  69 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  71  47  68 /   0   0   0  20
MONTICELLO AR     50  73  47  71 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  72  47  71 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  46  69  45  66 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        46  67  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     50  71  46  70 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  72  47  69 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         47  68  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      48  69  45  67 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 211748
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE BEFORE
TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS,

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. FOG IS DISSIPATING IN EASTERN TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...WHILE PARTS OF CENTRAL NEAR HOT SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER
NORTHERN AR...FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...IS HANGING ON. DID UPDATE TO
END FOG IN SOUTH TO EAST...WHILE KEEPING IT A FEW MORE HOURS OVER
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S STATE WIDE. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. WILL FINE TUNE FORECAST FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      76  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  50  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 211519 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. FOG IS DISSIPATING IN EASTERN TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...WHILE PARTS OF CENTRAL NEAR HOT SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER
NORTHERN AR...FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...IS HANGING ON. DID UPDATE TO
END FOG IN SOUTH TO EAST...WHILE KEEPING IT A FEW MORE HOURS OVER
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S STATE WIDE. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. WILL FINE TUNE FORECAST FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46
















000
FXUS64 KLZK 211519 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. FOG IS DISSIPATING IN EASTERN TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...WHILE PARTS OF CENTRAL NEAR HOT SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER
NORTHERN AR...FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...IS HANGING ON. DID UPDATE TO
END FOG IN SOUTH TO EAST...WHILE KEEPING IT A FEW MORE HOURS OVER
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S STATE WIDE. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. WILL FINE TUNE FORECAST FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46
















000
FXUS64 KLZK 211519 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. FOG IS DISSIPATING IN EASTERN TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...WHILE PARTS OF CENTRAL NEAR HOT SPRINGS...AND AREAS OVER
NORTHERN AR...FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS...IS HANGING ON. DID UPDATE TO
END FOG IN SOUTH TO EAST...WHILE KEEPING IT A FEW MORE HOURS OVER
WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S STATE WIDE. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. WILL FINE TUNE FORECAST FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46

















000
FXUS64 KLZK 211137 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46













000
FXUS64 KLZK 211137 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46














000
FXUS64 KLZK 211137 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46













000
FXUS64 KLZK 211137 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46














000
FXUS64 KLZK 211019 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46










000
FXUS64 KLZK 211019 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE NOTED THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
OZARKS AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND
IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. SOME IFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG ARE EXPECTED.

IN THE SOUTHWEST...THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH
TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46











000
FXUS64 KLZK 210901
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
401 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 210901
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
401 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THERE IS SOME FOG ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE
WIND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT HAVE AREAS OF FOG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG MENTIONED IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WILL FORGO
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS PLACES MEETING THE CRITERIA
FOR SUCH A PRODUCT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME UPPER
70S OR LOW 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY IN THE WEST. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE
WITH THAT FRONT AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND HAVE TO OVERCOME A SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP DRY AIR MASS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION HITS THE GROUND. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHWEST AS MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT RAIN IN THAT AREA OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THU FOR CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DATA SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND. IT WILL NOT FEEL MUCH LIKE FALL...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  46  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         78  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       73  47  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  50  72  48 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  50  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     78  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  46  69  45 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  46  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     76  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  49  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      75  49  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46








000
FXUS64 KLZK 202307 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
607 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE...BECOMING MVFR TO IFR BY
12Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS
OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MODELS DIFFERENCES THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT
ONE SOLUTION IS FAVORED VERSUS ANOTHER. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS QUITE LIMITED...PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY HARD TO COME BY.
AS SUCH...A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME

JUST A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS AS A VERY
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH A TROUGH...NOW PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT A SMALL ONE...WILL BE
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SYSTEM ACTUALLY HAS
A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT WHEN ITS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT MOVES EAST INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED
AND EVEN THEN JUST OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE EXTENDED
TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS
STATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...WHICH THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE
RIDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND BRINGS A TROF IN FROM THE WEST BY THE END
OF THE TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE GFS BRINGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO
THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH
WEAKER FRONT TO A NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION JUST NW OF THE CWA.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
THE ECMWF...AND WILL WARM MAX TEMPS UP ON SATURDAY AND KEEP THEM
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WILL ALSO
PUT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LIKELYHOOD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 202307 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
607 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE...BECOMING MVFR TO IFR BY
12Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. TAFS
OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MODELS DIFFERENCES THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT
ONE SOLUTION IS FAVORED VERSUS ANOTHER. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS QUITE LIMITED...PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY HARD TO COME BY.
AS SUCH...A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME

JUST A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS AS A VERY
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH A TROUGH...NOW PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT A SMALL ONE...WILL BE
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SYSTEM ACTUALLY HAS
A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT WHEN ITS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT MOVES EAST INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED
AND EVEN THEN JUST OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE EXTENDED
TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS
STATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...WHICH THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE
RIDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND BRINGS A TROF IN FROM THE WEST BY THE END
OF THE TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE GFS BRINGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO
THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH
WEAKER FRONT TO A NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION JUST NW OF THE CWA.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
THE ECMWF...AND WILL WARM MAX TEMPS UP ON SATURDAY AND KEEP THEM
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WILL ALSO
PUT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LIKELYHOOD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 201936
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MODELS DIFFERENCES THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT
ONE SOLUTION IS FAVORED VERSUS ANOTHER. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN BUT WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS QUITE LIMITED...PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY HARD TO COME BY.
AS SUCH...A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME

JUST A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS AS A VERY
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH A TROUGH...NOW PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT A SMALL ONE...WILL BE
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SYSTEM ACTUALLY HAS
A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT WHEN ITS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT MOVES EAST INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED
AND EVEN THEN JUST OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE DURING THE EXTENDED
TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS
STATES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...WHICH THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE ECMWF AND
GFS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT...AS THE ECMWF GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND MOVES THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE
RIDGE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND BRINGS A TROF IN FROM THE WEST BY THE END
OF THE TERM. AT THE SURFACE THE GFS BRINGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO
THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MUCH
WEAKER FRONT TO A NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION JUST NW OF THE CWA.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO...WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON
THE ECMWF...AND WILL WARM MAX TEMPS UP ON SATURDAY AND KEEP THEM
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. WILL ALSO
PUT SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LIKELYHOOD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  72  45  68 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         52  79  50  73 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       50  72  45  69 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  77  49  72 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  76  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     52  79  49  72 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      54  77  50  72 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  72  45  68 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        50  73  45  68 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     53  77  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  75  47  70 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         51  74  47  69 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      52  76  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201143 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS/SOME LOW CLOUDS TODAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THIN
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...MAINLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER. WHERE FOG OCCURS...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL REFORM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH TODAY...AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AS EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THU. THE
RESULTING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU
WITH THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WEST OF ARKANSAS BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHES IT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE STATE AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. JUST
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE DRIVEN A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN A
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

THROUGH TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT WILL START A WARMING TREND. AT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  50  73  45 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  52  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       72  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  54  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  53  79  50 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      73  53  77  48 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        74  50  74  46 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  77  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  54  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         73  51  74  47 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      74  53  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 201018 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS/SOME LOW CLOUDS TODAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH TODAY...AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AS EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THU. THE
RESULTING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU
WITH THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WEST OF ARKANSAS BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHES IT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE STATE AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. JUST
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE DRIVEN A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN A
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

THROUGH TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT WILL START A WARMING TREND. AT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  50  73  45 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  52  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       72  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  54  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  53  79  50 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      73  53  77  48 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        74  50  74  46 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  77  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  54  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         73  51  74  47 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      74  53  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46










000
FXUS64 KLZK 201018 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS/SOME LOW CLOUDS TODAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH TODAY...AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AS EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THU. THE
RESULTING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU
WITH THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WEST OF ARKANSAS BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHES IT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE STATE AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. JUST
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE DRIVEN A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN A
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

THROUGH TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT WILL START A WARMING TREND. AT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  50  73  45 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  52  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       72  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  54  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  53  79  50 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      73  53  77  48 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        74  50  74  46 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  77  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  54  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         73  51  74  47 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      74  53  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46










000
FXUS64 KLZK 201018 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS/SOME LOW CLOUDS TODAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH TODAY...AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AS EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THU. THE
RESULTING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU
WITH THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WEST OF ARKANSAS BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHES IT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE STATE AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. JUST
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE DRIVEN A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN A
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

THROUGH TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT WILL START A WARMING TREND. AT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  50  73  45 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  52  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       72  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  54  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  53  79  50 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      73  53  77  48 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        74  50  74  46 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  77  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  54  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         73  51  74  47 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      74  53  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46











000
FXUS64 KLZK 201018 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS/SOME LOW CLOUDS TODAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH TODAY...AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AS EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THU. THE
RESULTING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU
WITH THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WEST OF ARKANSAS BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHES IT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE STATE AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. JUST
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE DRIVEN A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN A
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

THROUGH TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT WILL START A WARMING TREND. AT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  50  73  45 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  52  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       72  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  54  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  53  79  50 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      73  53  77  48 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        74  50  74  46 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  77  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  54  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         73  51  74  47 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      74  53  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46











000
FXUS64 KLZK 200855
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AS EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THU. THE
RESULTING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU
WITH THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WEST OF ARKANSAS BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHES IT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE STATE AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. JUST
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE DRIVEN A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN A
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

THROUGH TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT WILL START A WARMING TREND. AT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  50  73  45 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  52  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       72  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  54  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  53  79  50 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      73  53  77  48 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        74  50  74  46 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  77  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  54  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         73  51  74  47 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      74  53  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 200855
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

AS EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WED
NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THU. THE
RESULTING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU
WITH THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL WEST OF ARKANSAS BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHES IT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE STATE AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. JUST
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
HAVE DRIVEN A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE
NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN A
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

THROUGH TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT WILL START A WARMING TREND. AT/ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  50  73  45 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         75  52  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       72  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  54  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  55  77  49 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  53  79  50 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      73  53  77  48 /  20  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  48  73  44 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        74  50  74  46 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     74  53  77  48 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  54  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         73  51  74  47 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      74  53  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46








000
FXUS64 KLZK 192310 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
610 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY CEILINGS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALTOCU OR HIGH STRATOCU AND CIRRUS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG AXIS WAS SITUATED FM NE TO SW ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHRTWV...LOCATED OVR SWRN MO...WL CONT TO TRACK
EWD THIS EVENING. BAND OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE WL ALSO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ACRS NRN AR.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RDG WL CONT TO SLOLY WEAKEN OVR THE REGION
TNGT. DO EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR ACRS
CNTRL AND SERN EARLY TNGT UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. READINGS OVR NRN AR WL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO A LGT
SLY WINDS AND INCRSG CLOUDS...ESP AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO
ADD A SLGT CHC OF SHRA OVR NRN COUNTIES LATE TNGT AS WAA/LIFT INCRS
OVR THAT AREA.

A WEAK CDFNT RMNS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN AR ON MON...WITH
SLGT CHCS POPS ALREADY MENTIONED. THE BNDRY WL EVENTUALLY DROP
FURTHER SEWD THRU THE REST OF AR MON AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. KEPT A DRY FCST GOING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FNT AS SIG
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL BE LIMITED.

A NEW HIGH PRES RDG WL REGAIN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH FOR TUE AND
WED WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN THE FRONT
ARRIVES. NEVERTHELESS...ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED...SO
ONLY SMALL POPS ARE CALLED FOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 192310 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
610 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY CEILINGS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALTOCU OR HIGH STRATOCU AND CIRRUS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG AXIS WAS SITUATED FM NE TO SW ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHRTWV...LOCATED OVR SWRN MO...WL CONT TO TRACK
EWD THIS EVENING. BAND OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE WL ALSO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ACRS NRN AR.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RDG WL CONT TO SLOLY WEAKEN OVR THE REGION
TNGT. DO EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR ACRS
CNTRL AND SERN EARLY TNGT UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. READINGS OVR NRN AR WL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO A LGT
SLY WINDS AND INCRSG CLOUDS...ESP AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO
ADD A SLGT CHC OF SHRA OVR NRN COUNTIES LATE TNGT AS WAA/LIFT INCRS
OVR THAT AREA.

A WEAK CDFNT RMNS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN AR ON MON...WITH
SLGT CHCS POPS ALREADY MENTIONED. THE BNDRY WL EVENTUALLY DROP
FURTHER SEWD THRU THE REST OF AR MON AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. KEPT A DRY FCST GOING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FNT AS SIG
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL BE LIMITED.

A NEW HIGH PRES RDG WL REGAIN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH FOR TUE AND
WED WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN THE FRONT
ARRIVES. NEVERTHELESS...ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED...SO
ONLY SMALL POPS ARE CALLED FOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 192310 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
610 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY CEILINGS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALTOCU OR HIGH STRATOCU AND CIRRUS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG AXIS WAS SITUATED FM NE TO SW ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHRTWV...LOCATED OVR SWRN MO...WL CONT TO TRACK
EWD THIS EVENING. BAND OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE WL ALSO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ACRS NRN AR.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RDG WL CONT TO SLOLY WEAKEN OVR THE REGION
TNGT. DO EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR ACRS
CNTRL AND SERN EARLY TNGT UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. READINGS OVR NRN AR WL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO A LGT
SLY WINDS AND INCRSG CLOUDS...ESP AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO
ADD A SLGT CHC OF SHRA OVR NRN COUNTIES LATE TNGT AS WAA/LIFT INCRS
OVR THAT AREA.

A WEAK CDFNT RMNS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN AR ON MON...WITH
SLGT CHCS POPS ALREADY MENTIONED. THE BNDRY WL EVENTUALLY DROP
FURTHER SEWD THRU THE REST OF AR MON AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. KEPT A DRY FCST GOING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FNT AS SIG
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL BE LIMITED.

A NEW HIGH PRES RDG WL REGAIN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH FOR TUE AND
WED WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN THE FRONT
ARRIVES. NEVERTHELESS...ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED...SO
ONLY SMALL POPS ARE CALLED FOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 192310 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
610 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY CEILINGS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALTOCU OR HIGH STRATOCU AND CIRRUS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG AXIS WAS SITUATED FM NE TO SW ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHRTWV...LOCATED OVR SWRN MO...WL CONT TO TRACK
EWD THIS EVENING. BAND OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE WL ALSO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ACRS NRN AR.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RDG WL CONT TO SLOLY WEAKEN OVR THE REGION
TNGT. DO EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR ACRS
CNTRL AND SERN EARLY TNGT UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. READINGS OVR NRN AR WL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO A LGT
SLY WINDS AND INCRSG CLOUDS...ESP AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO
ADD A SLGT CHC OF SHRA OVR NRN COUNTIES LATE TNGT AS WAA/LIFT INCRS
OVR THAT AREA.

A WEAK CDFNT RMNS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN AR ON MON...WITH
SLGT CHCS POPS ALREADY MENTIONED. THE BNDRY WL EVENTUALLY DROP
FURTHER SEWD THRU THE REST OF AR MON AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. KEPT A DRY FCST GOING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FNT AS SIG
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL BE LIMITED.

A NEW HIGH PRES RDG WL REGAIN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH FOR TUE AND
WED WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN THE FRONT
ARRIVES. NEVERTHELESS...ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED...SO
ONLY SMALL POPS ARE CALLED FOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 191948
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG AXIS WAS SITUATED FM NE TO SW ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHRTWV...LOCATED OVR SWRN MO...WL CONT TO TRACK
EWD THIS EVENING. BAND OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE WL ALSO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ACRS NRN AR.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RDG WL CONT TO SLOLY WEAKEN OVR THE REGION
TNGT. DO EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR ACRS
CNTRL AND SERN EARLY TNGT UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. READINGS OVR NRN AR WL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO A LGT
SLY WINDS AND INCRSG CLOUDS...ESP AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO
ADD A SLGT CHC OF SHRA OVR NRN COUNTIES LATE TNGT AS WAA/LIFT INCRS
OVR THAT AREA.

A WEAK CDFNT RMNS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN AR ON MON...WITH
SLGT CHCS POPS ALREADY MENTIONED. THE BNDRY WL EVENTUALLY DROP
FURTHER SEWD THRU THE REST OF AR MON AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. KEPT A DRY FCST GOING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FNT AS SIG
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL BE LIMITED.

A NEW HIGH PRES RDG WL REGAIN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH FOR TUE AND
WED WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN THE FRONT
ARRIVES. NEVERTHELESS...ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED...SO
ONLY SMALL POPS ARE CALLED FOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...28







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191948
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
248 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SFC RDG AXIS WAS SITUATED FM NE TO SW ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHRTWV...LOCATED OVR SWRN MO...WL CONT TO TRACK
EWD THIS EVENING. BAND OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE WL ALSO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING ACRS NRN AR.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RDG WL CONT TO SLOLY WEAKEN OVR THE REGION
TNGT. DO EXPECT A DECENT AMT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR ACRS
CNTRL AND SERN EARLY TNGT UNDER MAINLY CLR SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS. READINGS OVR NRN AR WL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER DUE TO A LGT
SLY WINDS AND INCRSG CLOUDS...ESP AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. DECIDED TO
ADD A SLGT CHC OF SHRA OVR NRN COUNTIES LATE TNGT AS WAA/LIFT INCRS
OVR THAT AREA.

A WEAK CDFNT RMNS PROGGED TO DROP SEWD INTO NRN AR ON MON...WITH
SLGT CHCS POPS ALREADY MENTIONED. THE BNDRY WL EVENTUALLY DROP
FURTHER SEWD THRU THE REST OF AR MON AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. KEPT A DRY FCST GOING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FNT AS SIG
MOISTURE AND FORCING WL BE LIMITED.

A NEW HIGH PRES RDG WL REGAIN CONTROL ACRS THE MID SOUTH FOR TUE AND
WED WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
ARRIVE IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. MODELS ARE NOT IN PARTICULARLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN THE FRONT
ARRIVES. NEVERTHELESS...ANY MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED...SO
ONLY SMALL POPS ARE CALLED FOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...28








000
FXUS64 KLZK 191744
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. FROM SUNRISE MON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR AROUND KBPK
AND KHRO.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENT FCST ON TRACK THIS MRNG. DID ADJUST HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY MINOR CHG WAS TO INCRS CLOUD COVER A BIT ACRS
NRN AR THIS AFTN ASSOCD WITH A WEAK UPR LVL LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG
THE OK/KS BRDR. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHGS. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND BODIES OF WATER. WHERE FOG
FORMS...BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE NOTED.

WINDS TODAY WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...REINFORCING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MERGE WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NRN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY MORNING
TO PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. QPF SIGNALS IN THE COURSER MODELS ARE VERY WEAK...AND
EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
RAINFALL IN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. STILL...SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A DRY PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD. THE DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AFTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY AND
MONDAY...TUE AND WED WILL SEE A SLIGHT UP TICK IN AFTERNOON TEMPS
FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THAT
WILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
PENETRATE INTO THE HIGH FROM THE PLAINS...AND WILL BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THAT COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  47  72  50 /   0   0  20  10
CAMDEN AR         73  47  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       66  48  72  49 /  10  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  48  75  54 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  48  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     70  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      70  47  75  53 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  47  72  48 /  10   0  20  10
NEWPORT AR        67  47  72  51 /   0   0  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     69  48  75  54 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  47  74  54 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         69  47  73  52 /   0   0  20  10
STUTTGART AR      70  48  74  55 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191744
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. FROM SUNRISE MON THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR AROUND KBPK
AND KHRO.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENT FCST ON TRACK THIS MRNG. DID ADJUST HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY MINOR CHG WAS TO INCRS CLOUD COVER A BIT ACRS
NRN AR THIS AFTN ASSOCD WITH A WEAK UPR LVL LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG
THE OK/KS BRDR. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHGS. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND BODIES OF WATER. WHERE FOG
FORMS...BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE NOTED.

WINDS TODAY WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...REINFORCING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MERGE WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NRN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY MORNING
TO PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. QPF SIGNALS IN THE COURSER MODELS ARE VERY WEAK...AND
EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
RAINFALL IN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. STILL...SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A DRY PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD. THE DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AFTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY AND
MONDAY...TUE AND WED WILL SEE A SLIGHT UP TICK IN AFTERNOON TEMPS
FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THAT
WILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
PENETRATE INTO THE HIGH FROM THE PLAINS...AND WILL BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THAT COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  47  72  50 /   0   0  20  10
CAMDEN AR         73  47  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       66  48  72  49 /  10  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  48  75  54 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  48  75  55 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     70  48  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      70  47  75  53 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  47  72  48 /  10   0  20  10
NEWPORT AR        67  47  72  51 /   0   0  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     69  48  75  54 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  47  74  54 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         69  47  73  52 /   0   0  20  10
STUTTGART AR      70  48  74  55 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28






000
FXUS64 KLZK 191545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT FCST ON TRACK THIS MRNG. DID ADJUST HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY MINOR CHG WAS TO INCRS CLOUD COVER A BIT ACRS
NRN AR THIS AFTN ASSOCD WITH A WEAK UPR LVL LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG
THE OK/KS BRDR. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHGS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND BODIES OF WATER. WHERE FOG
FORMS...BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE NOTED.

WINDS TODAY WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...REINFORCING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MERGE WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NRN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY MORNING
TO PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. QPF SIGNALS IN THE COURSER MODELS ARE VERY WEAK...AND
EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
RAINFALL IN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. STILL...SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A DRY PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD. THE DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AFTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY AND
MONDAY...TUE AND WED WILL SEE A SLIGHT UP TICK IN AFTERNOON TEMPS
FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THAT
WILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
PENETRATE INTO THE HIGH FROM THE PLAINS...AND WILL BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THAT COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 191545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1045 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT FCST ON TRACK THIS MRNG. DID ADJUST HRLY TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY MINOR CHG WAS TO INCRS CLOUD COVER A BIT ACRS
NRN AR THIS AFTN ASSOCD WITH A WEAK UPR LVL LOW TRACKING EWD ALONG
THE OK/KS BRDR. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHGS. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH/MID CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND BODIES OF WATER. WHERE FOG
FORMS...BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE NOTED.

WINDS TODAY WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...REINFORCING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MERGE WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF NRN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON MONDAY MORNING
TO PROVIDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. QPF SIGNALS IN THE COURSER MODELS ARE VERY WEAK...AND
EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
RAINFALL IN ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. STILL...SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL SEEMS PLAUSIBLE SO WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A DRY PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. HOWEVER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD. THE DRY AIR AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL MEAN LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...BUT AFTER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS TODAY AND
MONDAY...TUE AND WED WILL SEE A SLIGHT UP TICK IN AFTERNOON TEMPS
FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND THAT
WILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO
PENETRATE INTO THE HIGH FROM THE PLAINS...AND WILL BRING LIMITED
MOISTURE LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THAT COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE... THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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