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000
FXUS64 KLZK 211724
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1124 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE AREAS OF LIFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH 00Z...REACHING HIGHER MVFR VALUES.

55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FNT WAS SITUATED ACRS SWRN AR AT LATE MRNG. WL CONT TO SEE
GOOD CHCS OF SHOWERS THIS AFTN ALONG AND N OF THE BNDRY AS AN UPR
LVL IMPULSE APCHS FM THE W. HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE
MENTIONED ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ABT A CAT OVR
NRN AND CNTRL SECTIONS BASED ON THE EXPECTED SLOW NWD ADVANCE OF
THE WARM FNT. NO OTHER CHGS TO REST OF FCST. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY. THIS WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF COAST UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND HERE.

IN GENERAL...SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TODAY/SATURDAY...WITH
RAINFALL GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT WILL CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS.

THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...AND RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE...WITH THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
GOING UP.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.

RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS USUAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM...BUT OVERALL THEY DO
AGREE ON THE PATTERN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WED NIGHT. HAVE KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS NONE OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE IMPULSE SWINGING SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI
ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A STRONG JET WITH IT SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH LATER THAT EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THOUGH NOT AS STARKLY COLD AS
HAVE BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING WHILE THE EURO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     48  46  61  52 /  50  40  40  90
CAMDEN AR         62  50  67  56 /  60  40  40  90
HARRISON AR       49  46  59  50 /  40  40  60  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  50  65  55 /  60  40  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  51  49  64  55 /  60  40  30  90
MONTICELLO AR     62  50  68  57 /  50  30  30  90
MOUNT IDA AR      55  50  64  54 /  60  50  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  45  58  50 /  40  40  50  90
NEWPORT AR        50  47  61  53 /  50  40  30  90
PINE BLUFF AR     56  50  66  56 /  60  40  30  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  48  61  53 /  50  40  50  90
SEARCY AR         49  48  62  54 /  50  40  30  90
STUTTGART AR      52  50  65  55 /  60  40  30  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KLZK 211724
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1124 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE AREAS OF LIFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY
AFFECTING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH 00Z...REACHING HIGHER MVFR VALUES.

55


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FNT WAS SITUATED ACRS SWRN AR AT LATE MRNG. WL CONT TO SEE
GOOD CHCS OF SHOWERS THIS AFTN ALONG AND N OF THE BNDRY AS AN UPR
LVL IMPULSE APCHS FM THE W. HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE
MENTIONED ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ABT A CAT OVR
NRN AND CNTRL SECTIONS BASED ON THE EXPECTED SLOW NWD ADVANCE OF
THE WARM FNT. NO OTHER CHGS TO REST OF FCST. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY. THIS WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF COAST UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND HERE.

IN GENERAL...SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TODAY/SATURDAY...WITH
RAINFALL GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT WILL CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS.

THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...AND RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE...WITH THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
GOING UP.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.

RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS USUAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM...BUT OVERALL THEY DO
AGREE ON THE PATTERN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WED NIGHT. HAVE KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS NONE OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE IMPULSE SWINGING SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI
ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A STRONG JET WITH IT SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH LATER THAT EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THOUGH NOT AS STARKLY COLD AS
HAVE BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING WHILE THE EURO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     48  46  61  52 /  50  40  40  90
CAMDEN AR         62  50  67  56 /  60  40  40  90
HARRISON AR       49  46  59  50 /  40  40  60  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  50  65  55 /  60  40  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  51  49  64  55 /  60  40  30  90
MONTICELLO AR     62  50  68  57 /  50  30  30  90
MOUNT IDA AR      55  50  64  54 /  60  50  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  45  58  50 /  40  40  50  90
NEWPORT AR        50  47  61  53 /  50  40  30  90
PINE BLUFF AR     56  50  66  56 /  60  40  30  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   50  48  61  53 /  50  40  50  90
SEARCY AR         49  48  62  54 /  50  40  30  90
STUTTGART AR      52  50  65  55 /  60  40  30  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KLZK 211652
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1052 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FNT WAS SITUATED ACRS SWRN AR AT LATE MRNG. WL CONT TO SEE
GOOD CHCS OF SHOWERS THIS AFTN ALONG AND N OF THE BNDRY AS AN UPR
LVL IMPULSE APCHS FM THE W. HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE
MENTIONED ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ABT A CAT OVR
NRN AND CNTRL SECTIONS BASED ON THE EXPECTED SLOW NWD ADVANCE OF
THE WARM FNT. NO OTHER CHGS TO REST OF FCST. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY. THIS WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF COAST UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND HERE.

IN GENERAL...SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TODAY/SATURDAY...WITH
RAINFALL GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT WILL CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS.

THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...AND RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE...WITH THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
GOING UP.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.

RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS USUAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM...BUT OVERALL THEY DO
AGREE ON THE PATTERN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WED NIGHT. HAVE KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS NONE OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE IMPULSE SWINGING SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI
ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A STRONG JET WITH IT SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH LATER THAT EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THOUGH NOT AS STARKLY COLD AS
HAVE BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING WHILE THE EURO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 211652
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1052 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FNT WAS SITUATED ACRS SWRN AR AT LATE MRNG. WL CONT TO SEE
GOOD CHCS OF SHOWERS THIS AFTN ALONG AND N OF THE BNDRY AS AN UPR
LVL IMPULSE APCHS FM THE W. HIGHEST RAIN CHCS WL CONT TO BE
MENTIONED ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ABT A CAT OVR
NRN AND CNTRL SECTIONS BASED ON THE EXPECTED SLOW NWD ADVANCE OF
THE WARM FNT. NO OTHER CHGS TO REST OF FCST. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY. THIS WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF COAST UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND HERE.

IN GENERAL...SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TODAY/SATURDAY...WITH
RAINFALL GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT WILL CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS.

THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...AND RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE...WITH THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
GOING UP.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.

RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS USUAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM...BUT OVERALL THEY DO
AGREE ON THE PATTERN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WED NIGHT. HAVE KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS NONE OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE IMPULSE SWINGING SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI
ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A STRONG JET WITH IT SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH LATER THAT EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THOUGH NOT AS STARKLY COLD AS
HAVE BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING WHILE THE EURO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 211040
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
440 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY. THIS WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF COAST UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND HERE.

IN GENERAL...SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TODAY/SATURDAY...WITH
RAINFALL GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT WILL CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS.

THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...AND RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE...WITH THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
GOING UP.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.

RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS USUAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM...BUT OVERALL THEY DO
AGREE ON THE PATTERN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WED NIGHT. HAVE KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS NONE OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE IMPULSE SWINGING SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI
ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A STRONG JET WITH IT SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH LATER THAT EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THOUGH NOT AS STARKLY COLD AS
HAVE BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING WHILE THE EURO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  46  61  52 /  50  40  40  90
CAMDEN AR         61  50  67  56 /  60  40  40  90
HARRISON AR       50  46  59  50 /  40  40  60  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  50  65  55 /  60  40  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  49  64  55 /  60  40  30  90
MONTICELLO AR     62  50  68  57 /  50  30  30  90
MOUNT IDA AR      57  50  64  54 /  60  50  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  45  58  50 /  40  40  50  90
NEWPORT AR        52  47  61  53 /  50  40  30  90
PINE BLUFF AR     60  50  66  56 /  60  40  30  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  48  61  53 /  50  40  50  90
SEARCY AR         54  48  62  54 /  50  40  30  90
STUTTGART AR      57  50  65  55 /  60  40  30  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 211040
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
440 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
RESULT IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LOCALLY. THIS WILL HELP
TRANSPORT WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF COAST UP AND OVER THE
FRONT...WITH MORE CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND HERE.

IN GENERAL...SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TODAY/SATURDAY...WITH
RAINFALL GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT WILL CLIMB TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS.

THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...AND RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH...WITH SPRINGLIKE CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT GOES BY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE...WITH THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
GOING UP.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE WILL MOSTLY REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TEXAS INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS.

RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. LOCALLY MORE THAN TWO INCHES IS
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. AS USUAL
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM...BUT OVERALL THEY DO
AGREE ON THE PATTERN. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON WED NIGHT. HAVE KEPT
WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN SHOWING A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS NONE OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE IMPULSE SWINGING SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI
ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A STRONG JET WITH IT SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THAT WILL SWING THROUGH LATER THAT EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THOUGH NOT AS STARKLY COLD AS
HAVE BEEN SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD AS THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL UPPER
FLOW DEVELOPING WHILE THE EURO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  46  61  52 /  50  40  40  90
CAMDEN AR         61  50  67  56 /  60  40  40  90
HARRISON AR       50  46  59  50 /  40  40  60  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  50  65  55 /  60  40  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  49  64  55 /  60  40  30  90
MONTICELLO AR     62  50  68  57 /  50  30  30  90
MOUNT IDA AR      57  50  64  54 /  60  50  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  45  58  50 /  40  40  50  90
NEWPORT AR        52  47  61  53 /  50  40  30  90
PINE BLUFF AR     60  50  66  56 /  60  40  30  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  48  61  53 /  50  40  50  90
SEARCY AR         54  48  62  54 /  50  40  30  90
STUTTGART AR      57  50  65  55 /  60  40  30  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210542 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1142 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER
EARLIER TONIGHT HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WELL ESTABLISHED. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD BUT OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH
CEILINGS NEAR 5000 FEET WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL
START INCREASING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  37  51  45 /   0  30  50  40
CAMDEN AR         58  49  59  51 /  10  50  60  40
HARRISON AR       50  35  50  44 /   0  20  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  45  57  51 /  10  50  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  43  56  49 /  10  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  48  59  51 /  10  40  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      56  45  56  51 /  10  50  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  35  48  42 /   0  20  50  50
NEWPORT AR        50  38  52  47 /   0  30  50  40
PINE BLUFF AR     55  46  58  51 /  10  50  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  42  54  48 /  10  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         51  41  54  48 /  10  40  50  40
STUTTGART AR      53  43  56  50 /  10  40  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 210310
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL
START INCREASING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  51  45  60 /  30  50  40  80
CAMDEN AR         49  59  51  67 /  50  60  40  80
HARRISON AR       35  50  44  58 /  20  50  60  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  57  51  65 /  50  60  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  56  49  64 /  40  60  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     48  59  51  68 /  40  40  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      45  56  51  64 /  50  60  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  48  42  57 /  20  50  50  90
NEWPORT AR        38  52  47  61 /  30  50  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     46  58  51  66 /  50  50  40  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  54  48  61 /  40  60  60  90
SEARCY AR         41  54  48  62 /  40  50  40  80
STUTTGART AR      43  56  50  65 /  40  50  40  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 210310
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL
START INCREASING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  51  45  60 /  30  50  40  80
CAMDEN AR         49  59  51  67 /  50  60  40  80
HARRISON AR       35  50  44  58 /  20  50  60  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  57  51  65 /  50  60  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  56  49  64 /  40  60  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     48  59  51  68 /  40  40  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      45  56  51  64 /  50  60  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  48  42  57 /  20  50  50  90
NEWPORT AR        38  52  47  61 /  30  50  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     46  58  51  66 /  50  50  40  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  54  48  61 /  40  60  60  90
SEARCY AR         41  54  48  62 /  40  50  40  80
STUTTGART AR      43  56  50  65 /  40  50  40  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210310
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL
START INCREASING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  51  45  60 /  30  50  40  80
CAMDEN AR         49  59  51  67 /  50  60  40  80
HARRISON AR       35  50  44  58 /  20  50  60  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  57  51  65 /  50  60  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  56  49  64 /  40  60  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     48  59  51  68 /  40  40  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      45  56  51  64 /  50  60  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  48  42  57 /  20  50  50  90
NEWPORT AR        38  52  47  61 /  30  50  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     46  58  51  66 /  50  50  40  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  54  48  61 /  40  60  60  90
SEARCY AR         41  54  48  62 /  40  50  40  80
STUTTGART AR      43  56  50  65 /  40  50  40  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 210310
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT IS IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL
START INCREASING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  51  45  60 /  30  50  40  80
CAMDEN AR         49  59  51  67 /  50  60  40  80
HARRISON AR       35  50  44  58 /  20  50  60  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  57  51  65 /  50  60  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  56  49  64 /  40  60  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     48  59  51  68 /  40  40  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      45  56  51  64 /  50  60  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  48  42  57 /  20  50  50  90
NEWPORT AR        38  52  47  61 /  30  50  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     46  58  51  66 /  50  50  40  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  54  48  61 /  40  60  60  90
SEARCY AR         41  54  48  62 /  40  50  40  80
STUTTGART AR      43  56  50  65 /  40  50  40  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210001
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  39  51  45 /   0  30  50  40
CAMDEN AR         58  49  59  51 /  10  50  60  40
HARRISON AR       50  38  50  44 /   0  20  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  46  57  51 /  10  50  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  43  56  49 /  10  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  47  59  51 /  10  40  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      56  47  56  51 /  10  50  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  37  48  42 /   0  20  50  50
NEWPORT AR        50  39  52  47 /   0  30  50  40
PINE BLUFF AR     55  46  58  51 /  10  50  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  42  54  48 /  10  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         51  41  54  48 /  10  40  50  40
STUTTGART AR      53  43  56  50 /  10  40  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 210001
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER AT
THIS TIME BUT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  39  51  45 /   0  30  50  40
CAMDEN AR         58  49  59  51 /  10  50  60  40
HARRISON AR       50  38  50  44 /   0  20  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  46  57  51 /  10  50  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  43  56  49 /  10  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  47  59  51 /  10  40  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      56  47  56  51 /  10  50  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  37  48  42 /   0  20  50  50
NEWPORT AR        50  39  52  47 /   0  30  50  40
PINE BLUFF AR     55  46  58  51 /  10  50  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  42  54  48 /  10  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         51  41  54  48 /  10  40  50  40
STUTTGART AR      53  43  56  50 /  10  40  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 202045
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     39  51  45  60 /  40  50  40  80
CAMDEN AR         49  59  51  67 /  70  60  40  80
HARRISON AR       38  50  44  58 /  30  50  60  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    46  57  51  65 /  60  60  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  56  49  64 /  60  60  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     47  59  51  68 /  50  50  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      47  56  51  64 /  60  60  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  48  42  57 /  30  50  50  90
NEWPORT AR        39  52  47  61 /  40  50  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     46  58  51  66 /  60  60  40  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  54  48  61 /  50  60  60  90
SEARCY AR         41  54  48  62 /  50  50  40  80
STUTTGART AR      43  56  50  65 /  50  50  40  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...44







000
FXUS64 KLZK 202045
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA BORDER...THEN WESTWARD
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH REGARD TO POWERFUL
ENERGY...NOW REACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRIER CONDS WL BE RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH AT THE START OF THE PD
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS CONTS LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. THE
THE MODELS DO INDC SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY MON...MAINLY ACRS
NRN AR. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY HAVE A DRY FCST GOING AND WL NOT INCLUDE
ANY POPS ATTM. WL CONT TO MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPR LVL TROF WL SLOLY WORK EWD THRU THE REGION
DURG THE MID WEEK PD. SEVERAL WEAK CDFNT/S WL SWEEP ACRS THE FA...
ONE ON TUE AND ANOTHER ON THU. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED WITH EACH
SYS...WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THEM. TEMPS WL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     39  51  45  60 /  40  50  40  80
CAMDEN AR         49  59  51  67 /  70  60  40  80
HARRISON AR       38  50  44  58 /  30  50  60  90
HOT SPRINGS AR    46  57  51  65 /  60  60  40  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  56  49  64 /  60  60  40  80
MONTICELLO AR     47  59  51  68 /  50  50  30  80
MOUNT IDA AR      47  56  51  64 /  60  60  50  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  48  42  57 /  30  50  50  90
NEWPORT AR        39  52  47  61 /  40  50  40  80
PINE BLUFF AR     46  58  51  66 /  60  60  40  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  54  48  61 /  50  60  60  90
SEARCY AR         41  54  48  62 /  50  50  40  80
STUTTGART AR      43  56  50  65 /  50  50  40  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...44






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201802
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE

FNTL BNDRY WL RMN STALLED OVR NRN LA INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
HAVE CONTD TO DVLP N OF THE BNDRY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO SLOLY
CONT THIS AFTN AND TNGT AS THE FNT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NWD AHEAD
OF A UPR LVL IMPULSE. EXPECTING AREAS OF RAIN TO FORM N OF THE FNT
LATER TNGT AND FRI MRNG AS IT CONTS TO LIFT NWD. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS VCNTY OF
THE FNT ITSELF. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FROM
THE NORTH TODAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE
FRONT COMES TO A HALT...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EVEN
SO...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY/FRIDAY.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE GOING UP...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MERCURY LEVELS EXPECTED. THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
TRACK INTO TEXAS. THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL GET HERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

MOST SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS...AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
ARKANSAS AND INTO ILLINOIS. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. THE DRY
SLOT SHOULD CLEAR SKIES UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS SO SUNDAY WILL BE A
WARM DAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND POST FRONTAL JET STREAK MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...BUT
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION WILL MARKEDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE DAY SUN.
LACK OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MEANS THAT
ANY NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS WILL LAG BEHIND BY A DAY OR SO...WITH
LOWS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY NIGHT...LONG AFTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THUS ANY
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY TUE MORNING
AND AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
ORIGINATE IN THE PAC NW SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO BE MORE PRECISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201802
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...20/18Z TAF CYCLE

FNTL BNDRY WL RMN STALLED OVR NRN LA INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS
HAVE CONTD TO DVLP N OF THE BNDRY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO SLOLY
CONT THIS AFTN AND TNGT AS THE FNT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NWD AHEAD
OF A UPR LVL IMPULSE. EXPECTING AREAS OF RAIN TO FORM N OF THE FNT
LATER TNGT AND FRI MRNG AS IT CONTS TO LIFT NWD. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THAT TIME...WITH OCNL IFR CIGS VCNTY OF
THE FNT ITSELF. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FROM
THE NORTH TODAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE
FRONT COMES TO A HALT...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EVEN
SO...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY/FRIDAY.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE GOING UP...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MERCURY LEVELS EXPECTED. THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
TRACK INTO TEXAS. THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL GET HERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

MOST SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS...AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
ARKANSAS AND INTO ILLINOIS. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. THE DRY
SLOT SHOULD CLEAR SKIES UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS SO SUNDAY WILL BE A
WARM DAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND POST FRONTAL JET STREAK MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...BUT
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION WILL MARKEDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE DAY SUN.
LACK OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MEANS THAT
ANY NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS WILL LAG BEHIND BY A DAY OR SO...WITH
LOWS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY NIGHT...LONG AFTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THUS ANY
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY TUE MORNING
AND AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
ORIGINATE IN THE PAC NW SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO BE MORE PRECISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 201200
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS SRN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AND ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT KLLQ THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z OR SO
BEFORE LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
AT ALL SITES BEFORE MVFR CIGS SPREAD BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTH. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL PUSH MVFR CIGS BACK INTO
KLLQ...KADF...AND KHOT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING...AND TO KPBF
AND KLIT BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. NRN SITES WILL EVENTUALLY SEE MVFR CIGS
AS WELL BUT THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE LAST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
MOST LIKELY. RAIN WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED VCSH AT KADF AND KLLQ AFTER
06Z BUT DID NOT PUT TEMPO OR PREVAILING -SHRA IN AT ANY SITES DUE
TO IT LIKELY ARRIVING WITHIN THE LAST 4 HOURS OR SO OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FROM
THE NORTH TODAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE
FRONT COMES TO A HALT...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EVEN
SO...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY/FRIDAY.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE GOING UP...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MERCURY LEVELS EXPECTED. THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
TRACK INTO TEXAS. THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL GET HERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

MOST SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS...AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
ARKANSAS AND INTO ILLINOIS. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. THE DRY
SLOT SHOULD CLEAR SKIES UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS SO SUNDAY WILL BE A
WARM DAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND POST FRONTAL JET STREAK MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...BUT
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION WILL MARKEDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE DAY SUN.
LACK OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MEANS THAT
ANY NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS WILL LAG BEHIND BY A DAY OR SO...WITH
LOWS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY NIGHT...LONG AFTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THUS ANY
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY TUE MORNING
AND AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
ORIGINATE IN THE PAC NW SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO BE MORE PRECISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  38  51  44 /   0  30  50  50
CAMDEN AR         58  48  59  50 /  10  50  50  40
HARRISON AR       50  37  50  43 /   0  20  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  45  57  50 /  10  40  60  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  42  56  48 /  10  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  46  59  50 /  10  40  50  30
MOUNT IDA AR      56  46  56  50 /  10  40  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  36  48  41 /   0  20  50  50
NEWPORT AR        50  38  52  46 /   0  30  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     55  45  58  50 /  10  50  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  41  54  47 /  10  30  60  50
SEARCY AR         51  40  54  47 /  10  30  50  40
STUTTGART AR      53  42  56  49 /  10  40  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 201200
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS SRN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...WITH MVFR VSBY/CIGS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT AND ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT KLLQ THROUGH ROUGHLY 16Z OR SO
BEFORE LIFTING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
AT ALL SITES BEFORE MVFR CIGS SPREAD BACK INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTH. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL PUSH MVFR CIGS BACK INTO
KLLQ...KADF...AND KHOT BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THIS EVENING...AND TO KPBF
AND KLIT BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. NRN SITES WILL EVENTUALLY SEE MVFR CIGS
AS WELL BUT THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE LAST 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
MOST LIKELY. RAIN WILL ALSO BE PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED VCSH AT KADF AND KLLQ AFTER
06Z BUT DID NOT PUT TEMPO OR PREVAILING -SHRA IN AT ANY SITES DUE
TO IT LIKELY ARRIVING WITHIN THE LAST 4 HOURS OR SO OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FROM
THE NORTH TODAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE
FRONT COMES TO A HALT...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EVEN
SO...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY/FRIDAY.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE GOING UP...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MERCURY LEVELS EXPECTED. THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
TRACK INTO TEXAS. THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL GET HERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

MOST SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS...AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
ARKANSAS AND INTO ILLINOIS. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. THE DRY
SLOT SHOULD CLEAR SKIES UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS SO SUNDAY WILL BE A
WARM DAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND POST FRONTAL JET STREAK MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...BUT
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION WILL MARKEDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE DAY SUN.
LACK OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MEANS THAT
ANY NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS WILL LAG BEHIND BY A DAY OR SO...WITH
LOWS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY NIGHT...LONG AFTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THUS ANY
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY TUE MORNING
AND AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
ORIGINATE IN THE PAC NW SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO BE MORE PRECISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  38  51  44 /   0  30  50  50
CAMDEN AR         58  48  59  50 /  10  50  50  40
HARRISON AR       50  37  50  43 /   0  20  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  45  57  50 /  10  40  60  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  42  56  48 /  10  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  46  59  50 /  10  40  50  30
MOUNT IDA AR      56  46  56  50 /  10  40  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  36  48  41 /   0  20  50  50
NEWPORT AR        50  38  52  46 /   0  30  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     55  45  58  50 /  10  50  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  41  54  47 /  10  30  60  50
SEARCY AR         51  40  54  47 /  10  30  50  40
STUTTGART AR      53  42  56  49 /  10  40  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 201107
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FROM
THE NORTH TODAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE
FRONT COMES TO A HALT...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EVEN
SO...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY/FRIDAY.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE GOING UP...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MERCURY LEVELS EXPECTED. THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
TRACK INTO TEXAS. THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL GET HERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

MOST SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS...AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
ARKANSAS AND INTO ILLINOIS. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. THE DRY
SLOT SHOULD CLEAR SKIES UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS SO SUNDAY WILL BE A
WARM DAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND POST FRONTAL JET STREAK MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...BUT
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION WILL MARKEDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE DAY SUN.
LACK OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MEANS THAT
ANY NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS WILL LAG BEHIND BY A DAY OR SO...WITH
LOWS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY NIGHT...LONG AFTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THUS ANY
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY TUE MORNING
AND AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
ORIGINATE IN THE PAC NW SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO BE MORE PRECISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  38  51  44 /   0  30  50  50
CAMDEN AR         58  48  59  50 /  10  50  50  40
HARRISON AR       50  37  50  43 /   0  20  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  45  57  50 /  10  40  60  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  42  56  48 /  10  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  46  59  50 /  10  40  50  30
MOUNT IDA AR      56  46  56  50 /  10  40  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  36  48  41 /   0  20  50  50
NEWPORT AR        50  38  52  46 /   0  30  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     55  45  58  50 /  10  50  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  41  54  47 /  10  30  60  50
SEARCY AR         51  40  54  47 /  10  30  50  40
STUTTGART AR      53  42  56  49 /  10  40  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201107
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FROM
THE NORTH TODAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE
FRONT COMES TO A HALT...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EVEN
SO...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY/FRIDAY.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE GOING UP...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
MERCURY LEVELS EXPECTED. THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
TRACK INTO TEXAS. THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL GET HERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE.

MOST SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF
ARKANSAS...AND WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE GREATEST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
ARKANSAS AND INTO ILLINOIS. RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. THE DRY
SLOT SHOULD CLEAR SKIES UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S FOR MANY AREAS SO SUNDAY WILL BE A
WARM DAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND POST FRONTAL JET STREAK MOVING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...BUT
IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION WILL MARKEDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE DAY SUN.
LACK OF A STRONG CONTINENTAL AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT MEANS THAT
ANY NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS WILL LAG BEHIND BY A DAY OR SO...WITH
LOWS ONLY FORECAST TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN THE NORTHWEST
BY MONDAY NIGHT...LONG AFTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THUS ANY
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY TUE MORNING
AND AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO ONLY SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
ORIGINATE IN THE PAC NW SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO BE MORE PRECISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  38  51  44 /   0  30  50  50
CAMDEN AR         58  48  59  50 /  10  50  50  40
HARRISON AR       50  37  50  43 /   0  20  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  45  57  50 /  10  40  60  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  42  56  48 /  10  40  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  46  59  50 /  10  40  50  30
MOUNT IDA AR      56  46  56  50 /  10  40  60  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  36  48  41 /   0  20  50  50
NEWPORT AR        50  38  52  46 /   0  30  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     55  45  58  50 /  10  50  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  41  54  47 /  10  30  60  50
SEARCY AR         51  40  54  47 /  10  30  50  40
STUTTGART AR      53  42  56  49 /  10  40  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 200541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1141 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MVFR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A TREND OF RISING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO AN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG ENERGY...NOW DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
TIME FRAME...WITH A FEW SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS POINT
TOWARDS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE NOTED AT THE START OF THE PD AS A DEEPENING
UPR TROF WL BE MOVG THRU THE REGION. GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL
CONT FOR MUCH OF SUN AND INTO SUN NGT FOR THE FA. RAIN CHCS WL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MON AS THE ASSOCD SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP WL COME TO END BEFORE
THE COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO AR.

A QUICK MOVG...BUT WEAK...UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE
AND EARLY TUE NGT. THERE WL BE LTL IN THE WAY OF SIG MOISTURE ASSOCD
WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WL RMN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING ABT 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  27  48  36 /   0   0  10  40
CAMDEN AR         61  35  57  46 /   0   0  10  60
HARRISON AR       52  25  49  35 /   0   0   0  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  32  53  42 /   0   0  10  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  32  52  41 /   0   0  10  50
MONTICELLO AR     60  36  56  45 /   0   0  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      58  31  53  42 /   0   0  10  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  25  48  35 /   0   0   0  50
NEWPORT AR        54  28  49  37 /   0   0  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     59  34  53  44 /   0   0  10  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  29  51  39 /   0   0  10  50
SEARCY AR         55  29  50  38 /   0   0  10  50
STUTTGART AR      58  33  52  41 /   0   0  10  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 200541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1141 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD
BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE LOUISIANA BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MVFR. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE OVER THE SOUTH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A TREND OF RISING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO AN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG ENERGY...NOW DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
TIME FRAME...WITH A FEW SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS POINT
TOWARDS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE NOTED AT THE START OF THE PD AS A DEEPENING
UPR TROF WL BE MOVG THRU THE REGION. GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL
CONT FOR MUCH OF SUN AND INTO SUN NGT FOR THE FA. RAIN CHCS WL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MON AS THE ASSOCD SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP WL COME TO END BEFORE
THE COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO AR.

A QUICK MOVG...BUT WEAK...UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE
AND EARLY TUE NGT. THERE WL BE LTL IN THE WAY OF SIG MOISTURE ASSOCD
WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WL RMN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING ABT 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  27  48  36 /   0   0  10  40
CAMDEN AR         61  35  57  46 /   0   0  10  60
HARRISON AR       52  25  49  35 /   0   0   0  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  32  53  42 /   0   0  10  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  32  52  41 /   0   0  10  50
MONTICELLO AR     60  36  56  45 /   0   0  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      58  31  53  42 /   0   0  10  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  25  48  35 /   0   0   0  50
NEWPORT AR        54  28  49  37 /   0   0  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     59  34  53  44 /   0   0  10  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  29  51  39 /   0   0  10  50
SEARCY AR         55  29  50  38 /   0   0  10  50
STUTTGART AR      58  33  52  41 /   0   0  10  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64









000
FXUS64 KLZK 192338
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
538 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME
AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSES WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A TREND OF RISING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO AN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG ENERGY...NOW DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
TIME FRAME...WITH A FEW SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS POINT
TOWARDS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE NOTED AT THE START OF THE PD AS A DEEPENING
UPR TROF WL BE MOVG THRU THE REGION. GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL
CONT FOR MUCH OF SUN AND INTO SUN NGT FOR THE FA. RAIN CHCS WL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MON AS THE ASSOCD SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP WL COME TO END BEFORE
THE COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO AR.

A QUICK MOVG...BUT WEAK...UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE
AND EARLY TUE NGT. THERE WL BE LTL IN THE WAY OF SIG MOISTURE ASSOCD
WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WL RMN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING ABT 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  48  36  51 /   0  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         35  57  46  59 /   0  10  60  60
HARRISON AR       25  49  35  50 /   0   0  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    32  53  42  57 /   0  10  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  52  41  56 /   0  10  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     36  56  45  59 /   0  10  40  40
MOUNT IDA AR      31  53  42  56 /   0  10  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  48  35  48 /   0   0  50  60
NEWPORT AR        28  49  37  52 /   0  10  40  40
PINE BLUFF AR     34  53  44  58 /   0  10  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  51  39  54 /   0  10  50  60
SEARCY AR         29  50  38  54 /   0  10  50  50
STUTTGART AR      33  52  41  56 /   0  10  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 192338
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
538 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME
AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSES WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING. UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A TREND OF RISING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO AN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG ENERGY...NOW DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
TIME FRAME...WITH A FEW SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS POINT
TOWARDS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE NOTED AT THE START OF THE PD AS A DEEPENING
UPR TROF WL BE MOVG THRU THE REGION. GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL
CONT FOR MUCH OF SUN AND INTO SUN NGT FOR THE FA. RAIN CHCS WL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MON AS THE ASSOCD SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP WL COME TO END BEFORE
THE COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO AR.

A QUICK MOVG...BUT WEAK...UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE
AND EARLY TUE NGT. THERE WL BE LTL IN THE WAY OF SIG MOISTURE ASSOCD
WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WL RMN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING ABT 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  48  36  51 /   0  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         35  57  46  59 /   0  10  60  60
HARRISON AR       25  49  35  50 /   0   0  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    32  53  42  57 /   0  10  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  52  41  56 /   0  10  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     36  56  45  59 /   0  10  40  40
MOUNT IDA AR      31  53  42  56 /   0  10  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  48  35  48 /   0   0  50  60
NEWPORT AR        28  49  37  52 /   0  10  40  40
PINE BLUFF AR     34  53  44  58 /   0  10  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  51  39  54 /   0  10  50  60
SEARCY AR         29  50  38  54 /   0  10  50  50
STUTTGART AR      33  52  41  56 /   0  10  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 192046
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A TREND OF RISING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO AN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG ENERGY...NOW DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
TIME FRAME...WITH A FEW SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS POINT
TOWARDS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE NOTED AT THE START OF THE PD AS A DEEPENING
UPR TROF WL BE MOVG THRU THE REGION. GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL
CONT FOR MUCH OF SUN AND INTO SUN NGT FOR THE FA. RAIN CHCS WL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MON AS THE ASSOCD SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP WL COME TO END BEFORE
THE COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO AR.

A QUICK MOVG...BUT WEAK...UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE
AND EARLY TUE NGT. THERE WL BE LTL IN THE WAY OF SIG MOISTURE ASSOCD
WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WL RMN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING ABT 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  48  36  51 /   0  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         35  57  46  59 /   0  10  60  60
HARRISON AR       25  49  35  50 /   0   0  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    32  53  42  57 /   0  10  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  52  41  56 /   0  10  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     36  56  45  59 /   0  10  40  40
MOUNT IDA AR      31  53  42  56 /   0  10  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  48  35  48 /   0   0  50  60
NEWPORT AR        28  49  37  52 /   0  10  40  40
PINE BLUFF AR     34  53  44  58 /   0  10  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  51  39  54 /   0  10  50  60
SEARCY AR         29  50  38  54 /   0  10  50  50
STUTTGART AR      33  52  41  56 /   0  10  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...44






000
FXUS64 KLZK 192046
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A TREND OF RISING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATEST TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INDICATE A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ARE APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH REGARD TO AN EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG ENERGY...NOW DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE EASTWARD. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SUPPORT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
TIME FRAME...WITH A FEW SEVERE HAIL PRODUCING STORMS POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME...THE STRONGEST OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER SIGNALS POINT
TOWARDS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE NOTED AT THE START OF THE PD AS A DEEPENING
UPR TROF WL BE MOVG THRU THE REGION. GOOD CHCS OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WL
CONT FOR MUCH OF SUN AND INTO SUN NGT FOR THE FA. RAIN CHCS WL
QUICKLY DIMINISH BY MON AS THE ASSOCD SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP WL COME TO END BEFORE
THE COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES INTO AR.

A QUICK MOVG...BUT WEAK...UPR LVL IMPULSE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA TUE
AND EARLY TUE NGT. THERE WL BE LTL IN THE WAY OF SIG MOISTURE ASSOCD
WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WL RMN ON THE COOL SIDE...AVERAGING ABT 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     27  48  36  51 /   0  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         35  57  46  59 /   0  10  60  60
HARRISON AR       25  49  35  50 /   0   0  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    32  53  42  57 /   0  10  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  52  41  56 /   0  10  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     36  56  45  59 /   0  10  40  40
MOUNT IDA AR      31  53  42  56 /   0  10  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  48  35  48 /   0   0  50  60
NEWPORT AR        28  49  37  52 /   0  10  40  40
PINE BLUFF AR     34  53  44  58 /   0  10  50  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  51  39  54 /   0  10  50  60
SEARCY AR         29  50  38  54 /   0  10  50  50
STUTTGART AR      33  52  41  56 /   0  10  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...44







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191823
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1223 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...19/18Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS LOCATED OVR FAR NWRN AR ATTM. THE BNDRY WL
DROP SLOLY SWD LATER TODAY AND TNGT...EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE
LA BRDR. GUSTY W/SWLY WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN...BCMG NWLY AND
DIMINISHING TNGT. LOW LVL RH WL START TO ADVECT NWD ACRS THE
STALLED BNDRY LATE TNGT AND THU...WITH MVFR CIGS DVLPG ACRS CNTRL
AND SRN AR. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM ARKANSAS TODAY. CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LATER TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. THE FRONT WILL GO THROUGH DRY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL CLOSE
TO THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...
MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LOCALLY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING TEXAS DURING THE DAY SAT...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS SAT NIGHT...AND CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND LOW FORECAST INSTABILITY...OVERALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK LIMITED. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AROUND 200 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE CALIBER STORMS. IN OTHER WORDS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLY TOO. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE FOR MAINLY NRN AND NERN ARKANSAS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS WILL PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND THEREFORE SHOULD BE JUST RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191823
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1223 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.AVIATION...19/18Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAK FNTL BNDRY WAS LOCATED OVR FAR NWRN AR ATTM. THE BNDRY WL
DROP SLOLY SWD LATER TODAY AND TNGT...EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE
LA BRDR. GUSTY W/SWLY WINDS WL CONT THIS AFTN...BCMG NWLY AND
DIMINISHING TNGT. LOW LVL RH WL START TO ADVECT NWD ACRS THE
STALLED BNDRY LATE TNGT AND THU...WITH MVFR CIGS DVLPG ACRS CNTRL
AND SRN AR. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM ARKANSAS TODAY. CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LATER TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. THE FRONT WILL GO THROUGH DRY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL CLOSE
TO THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...
MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LOCALLY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING TEXAS DURING THE DAY SAT...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS SAT NIGHT...AND CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND LOW FORECAST INSTABILITY...OVERALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK LIMITED. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AROUND 200 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE CALIBER STORMS. IN OTHER WORDS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLY TOO. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE FOR MAINLY NRN AND NERN ARKANSAS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS WILL PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND THEREFORE SHOULD BE JUST RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 191200 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT...GUSTING ANYWHERE FROM 18-25KT
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 18-20Z UP
NORTH AND CLOSER TO 00Z AT CENTRAL ARKANSAS TERMINALS. DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS AND A WEAKENING FRONT MAY MEAN LITTLE TO NO WIND SHIFT
AS FAR SOUTH AS KLLQ...WITH WEAK WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE HAS NO MENTION OF THIS BUT MOISTURE PLOTS
FROM HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IN THE 1500-2500 FT AGL LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME FEW- SCT025 AFTER 06Z BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO STOP SHORT OF GOING WITH
ANY LEGITIMATE MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM ARKANSAS TODAY. CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LATER TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. THE FRONT WILL GO THROUGH DRY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL CLOSE
TO THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...
MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LOCALLY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING TEXAS DURING THE DAY SAT...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS SAT NIGHT...AND CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND LOW FORECAST INSTABILITY...OVERALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK LIMITED. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AROUND 200 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE CALIBER STORMS. IN OTHER WORDS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLY TOO. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE FOR MAINLY NRN AND NERN ARKANSAS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS WILL PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND THEREFORE SHOULD BE JUST RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  26  49  36 /   0   0   0  40
CAMDEN AR         58  34  56  46 /   0  10  10  40
HARRISON AR       49  24  49  35 /   0   0   0  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  32  54  42 /   0  10  10  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  32  53  41 /   0  10  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  35  55  45 /   0  10  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      55  32  53  42 /   0  10  10  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0  30
NEWPORT AR        51  27  48  37 /   0   0  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     56  33  54  44 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  28  53  39 /   0  10  10  40
SEARCY AR         52  28  51  38 /   0  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      55  32  52  41 /   0  10  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 191200 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT...GUSTING ANYWHERE FROM 18-25KT
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. FROPA SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 18-20Z UP
NORTH AND CLOSER TO 00Z AT CENTRAL ARKANSAS TERMINALS. DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS AND A WEAKENING FRONT MAY MEAN LITTLE TO NO WIND SHIFT
AS FAR SOUTH AS KLLQ...WITH WEAK WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS. MOS GUIDANCE HAS NO MENTION OF THIS BUT MOISTURE PLOTS
FROM HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DO SHOW A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IN THE 1500-2500 FT AGL LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME FEW- SCT025 AFTER 06Z BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO STOP SHORT OF GOING WITH
ANY LEGITIMATE MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM ARKANSAS TODAY. CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LATER TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. THE FRONT WILL GO THROUGH DRY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL CLOSE
TO THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...
MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LOCALLY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING TEXAS DURING THE DAY SAT...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS SAT NIGHT...AND CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND LOW FORECAST INSTABILITY...OVERALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK LIMITED. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AROUND 200 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE CALIBER STORMS. IN OTHER WORDS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLY TOO. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE FOR MAINLY NRN AND NERN ARKANSAS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS WILL PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND THEREFORE SHOULD BE JUST RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  26  49  36 /   0   0   0  40
CAMDEN AR         58  34  56  46 /   0  10  10  40
HARRISON AR       49  24  49  35 /   0   0   0  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  32  54  42 /   0  10  10  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  32  53  41 /   0  10  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  35  55  45 /   0  10  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      55  32  53  42 /   0  10  10  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0  30
NEWPORT AR        51  27  48  37 /   0   0  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     56  33  54  44 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  28  53  39 /   0  10  10  40
SEARCY AR         52  28  51  38 /   0  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      55  32  52  41 /   0  10  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191109
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
509 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM ARKANSAS TODAY. CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LATER TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. THE FRONT WILL GO THROUGH DRY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL CLOSE
TO THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...
MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LOCALLY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING TEXAS DURING THE DAY SAT...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS SAT NIGHT...AND CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND LOW FORECAST INSTABILITY...OVERALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK LIMITED. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AROUND 200 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE CALIBER STORMS. IN OTHER WORDS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLY TOO. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE FOR MAINLY NRN AND NERN ARKANSAS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS WILL PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND THEREFORE SHOULD BE JUST RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  26  49  36 /   0   0   0  40
CAMDEN AR         58  34  56  46 /   0  10  10  40
HARRISON AR       49  24  49  35 /   0   0   0  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  32  54  42 /   0  10  10  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  32  53  41 /   0  10  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  35  55  45 /   0  10  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      55  32  53  42 /   0  10  10  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0  30
NEWPORT AR        51  27  48  37 /   0   0  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     56  33  54  44 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  28  53  39 /   0  10  10  40
SEARCY AR         52  28  51  38 /   0  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      55  32  52  41 /   0  10  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191109
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
509 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM ARKANSAS TODAY. CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER/CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LATER TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR. THE FRONT WILL GO THROUGH DRY...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER IS JUST
AROUND THE CORNER.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL STALL CLOSE
TO THE ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...
MOISTURE WILL BE THROWN OVER THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LOCALLY...AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE
WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING TEXAS DURING THE DAY SAT...BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS SAT NIGHT...AND CAUSING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST LATE NIGHT TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND LOW FORECAST INSTABILITY...OVERALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOK LIMITED. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AROUND 200 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SEVERE CALIBER STORMS. IN OTHER WORDS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THIS SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER ASPECT OF THIS
SYSTEM...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLY TOO. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...BUT A
SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUN
AND SUN NIGHT. SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXIST WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE FOR MAINLY NRN AND NERN ARKANSAS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS WILL PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR
ARRIVES AND THEREFORE SHOULD BE JUST RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  26  49  36 /   0   0   0  40
CAMDEN AR         58  34  56  46 /   0  10  10  40
HARRISON AR       49  24  49  35 /   0   0   0  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  32  54  42 /   0  10  10  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  32  53  41 /   0  10  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     57  35  55  45 /   0  10  10  40
MOUNT IDA AR      55  32  53  42 /   0  10  10  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0  30
NEWPORT AR        51  27  48  37 /   0   0  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     56  33  54  44 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  28  53  39 /   0  10  10  40
SEARCY AR         52  28  51  38 /   0  10  10  40
STUTTGART AR      55  32  52  41 /   0  10  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 190534
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1134 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE TURNING WINDS MORE TO
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR OVER ARKANSAS. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FURTHER RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MODEST WARMING
HAS BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
VALUES WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.

OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE MID SOUTH. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH LATE...AIDING IN OVERALL LIFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF LIQUID PHASE AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT
TO INDC A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL TX ON SAT.
THE DATA AGREE THAT THE UPR TROF WL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
TRACKS ACRS AR SAT NGT AND ON SUN.

SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE FA ON SAT AND SAT NGT AHEAD
OF THE UPR SYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR STORMS DOES EXIST AS
WELL...BUT THERE STILL ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SCENARIO ESP
WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ALSO...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS WL BE SHIFTING TO THE NE OF AR SUN AND
SUN NGT...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPR LVL SYS IS FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE AREA
LATE SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH SOME SMALL PRECIP CHCS INDCD FOR MAINLY
NRN AR. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WL END EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FOR LTL IF ANY CHC OF WINTRY PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  24  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         49  27  57  29 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       42  27  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  27  54  27 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  26  55  29 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     45  27  55  31 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      49  27  54  27 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  38  25  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        38  24  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     45  26  55  30 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  26  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         42  24  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      43  25  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 190534
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1134 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE TURNING WINDS MORE TO
THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR OVER ARKANSAS. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FURTHER RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MODEST WARMING
HAS BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
VALUES WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.

OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE MID SOUTH. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH LATE...AIDING IN OVERALL LIFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF LIQUID PHASE AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT
TO INDC A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL TX ON SAT.
THE DATA AGREE THAT THE UPR TROF WL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
TRACKS ACRS AR SAT NGT AND ON SUN.

SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE FA ON SAT AND SAT NGT AHEAD
OF THE UPR SYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR STORMS DOES EXIST AS
WELL...BUT THERE STILL ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SCENARIO ESP
WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ALSO...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS WL BE SHIFTING TO THE NE OF AR SUN AND
SUN NGT...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPR LVL SYS IS FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE AREA
LATE SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH SOME SMALL PRECIP CHCS INDCD FOR MAINLY
NRN AR. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WL END EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FOR LTL IF ANY CHC OF WINTRY PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  24  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         49  27  57  29 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       42  27  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  27  54  27 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  26  55  29 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     45  27  55  31 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      49  27  54  27 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  38  25  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        38  24  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     45  26  55  30 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  26  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         42  24  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      43  25  54  30 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 190254
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
854 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR OVER ARKANSAS. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FURTHER RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BUT NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL TURN WINDS MORE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL PERSIST BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MODEST WARMING
HAS BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
VALUES WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.

OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE MID SOUTH. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH LATE...AIDING IN OVERALL LIFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF LIQUID PHASE AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT
TO INDC A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL TX ON SAT.
THE DATA AGREE THAT THE UPR TROF WL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
TRACKS ACRS AR SAT NGT AND ON SUN.

SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE FA ON SAT AND SAT NGT AHEAD
OF THE UPR SYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR STORMS DOES EXIST AS
WELL...BUT THERE STILL ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SCENARIO ESP
WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ALSO...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS WL BE SHIFTING TO THE NE OF AR SUN AND
SUN NGT...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPR LVL SYS IS FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE AREA
LATE SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH SOME SMALL PRECIP CHCS INDCD FOR MAINLY
NRN AR. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WL END EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FOR LTL IF ANY CHC OF WINTRY PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     24  49  25  48 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         27  57  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       27  48  23  50 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    27  54  27  50 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  26  55  29  52 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     27  55  31  53 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      27  54  27  49 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  48  22  49 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        24  49  28  50 /   0   0   0  20
PINE BLUFF AR     26  55  30  52 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   26  53  26  53 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         24  51  27  47 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      25  54  30  50 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 190254
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
854 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SKIES ARE STILL CLEAR OVER ARKANSAS. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FURTHER RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BUT NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL TURN WINDS MORE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL PERSIST BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MODEST WARMING
HAS BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
VALUES WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.

OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE MID SOUTH. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH LATE...AIDING IN OVERALL LIFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF LIQUID PHASE AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT
TO INDC A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL TX ON SAT.
THE DATA AGREE THAT THE UPR TROF WL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
TRACKS ACRS AR SAT NGT AND ON SUN.

SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE FA ON SAT AND SAT NGT AHEAD
OF THE UPR SYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR STORMS DOES EXIST AS
WELL...BUT THERE STILL ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SCENARIO ESP
WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ALSO...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS WL BE SHIFTING TO THE NE OF AR SUN AND
SUN NGT...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPR LVL SYS IS FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE AREA
LATE SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH SOME SMALL PRECIP CHCS INDCD FOR MAINLY
NRN AR. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WL END EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FOR LTL IF ANY CHC OF WINTRY PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     24  49  25  48 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         27  57  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       27  48  23  50 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    27  54  27  50 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  26  55  29  52 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     27  55  31  53 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      27  54  27  49 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  48  22  49 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        24  49  28  50 /   0   0   0  20
PINE BLUFF AR     26  55  30  52 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   26  53  26  53 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         24  51  27  47 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      25  54  30  50 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 182346
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
546 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BUT NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL TURN WINDS MORE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL PERSIST BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MODEST WARMING
HAS BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
VALUES WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.

OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE MID SOUTH. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH LATE...AIDING IN OVERALL LIFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF LIQUID PHASE AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT
TO INDC A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL TX ON SAT.
THE DATA AGREE THAT THE UPR TROF WL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
TRACKS ACRS AR SAT NGT AND ON SUN.

SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE FA ON SAT AND SAT NGT AHEAD
OF THE UPR SYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR STORMS DOES EXIST AS
WELL...BUT THERE STILL ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SCENARIO ESP
WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ALSO...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS WL BE SHIFTING TO THE NE OF AR SUN AND
SUN NGT...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPR LVL SYS IS FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE AREA
LATE SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH SOME SMALL PRECIP CHCS INDCD FOR MAINLY
NRN AR. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WL END EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FOR LTL IF ANY CHC OF WINTRY PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     28  49  25  48 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         30  57  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       30  48  23  50 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  54  27  50 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  55  29  52 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     31  55  31  53 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      30  54  27  49 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  48  22  49 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        29  49  28  50 /   0   0   0  20
PINE BLUFF AR     30  55  30  52 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  53  26  53 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         27  51  27  47 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      29  54  30  50 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 182346
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
546 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BUT NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL TURN WINDS MORE TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL PERSIST BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MODEST WARMING
HAS BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
VALUES WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.

OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE MID SOUTH. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH LATE...AIDING IN OVERALL LIFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF LIQUID PHASE AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT
TO INDC A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL TX ON SAT.
THE DATA AGREE THAT THE UPR TROF WL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
TRACKS ACRS AR SAT NGT AND ON SUN.

SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE FA ON SAT AND SAT NGT AHEAD
OF THE UPR SYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR STORMS DOES EXIST AS
WELL...BUT THERE STILL ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SCENARIO ESP
WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ALSO...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS WL BE SHIFTING TO THE NE OF AR SUN AND
SUN NGT...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPR LVL SYS IS FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE AREA
LATE SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH SOME SMALL PRECIP CHCS INDCD FOR MAINLY
NRN AR. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WL END EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FOR LTL IF ANY CHC OF WINTRY PRECIP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     28  49  25  48 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         30  57  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       30  48  23  50 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  54  27  50 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  55  29  52 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     31  55  31  53 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      30  54  27  49 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  48  22  49 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        29  49  28  50 /   0   0   0  20
PINE BLUFF AR     30  55  30  52 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  53  26  53 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         27  51  27  47 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      29  54  30  50 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 182055
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MODEST WARMING
HAS BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
VALUES WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.

OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE MID SOUTH. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH LATE...AIDING IN OVERALL LIFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF LIQUID PHASE AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT
TO INDC A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL TX ON SAT.
THE DATA AGREE THAT THE UPR TROF WL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
TRACKS ACRS AR SAT NGT AND ON SUN.

SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE FA ON SAT AND SAT NGT AHEAD
OF THE UPR SYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR STORMS DOES EXIST AS
WELL...BUT THERE STILL ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SCENARIO ESP
WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ALSO...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS WL BE SHIFTING TO THE NE OF AR SUN AND
SUN NGT...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPR LVL SYS IS FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE AREA
LATE SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH SOME SMALL PRECIP CHCS INDCD FOR MAINLY
NRN AR. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WL END EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FOR LTL IF ANY CHC OF WINTRY PRECIP.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     28  49  25  48 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         30  57  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       30  48  23  50 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  54  27  50 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  55  29  52 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     31  55  31  53 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      30  54  27  49 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  48  22  49 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        29  49  28  50 /   0   0   0  20
PINE BLUFF AR     30  55  30  52 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  53  26  53 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         27  51  27  47 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      29  54  30  50 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...44







000
FXUS64 KLZK 182055
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
RECENT TEMPERATURE DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH MODEST WARMING
HAS BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS...AND A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
VALUES WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT.

OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
FRIDAY...TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE TO THE MID SOUTH. A STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ALSO APPROACH LATE...AIDING IN OVERALL LIFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OF LIQUID PHASE AT THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UNSETTLED WX CONDS WL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PD. MODELS CONT
TO INDC A STRONG UPR TROF WL BE LIFTING NEWD OUT OF CNTRL TX ON SAT.
THE DATA AGREE THAT THE UPR TROF WL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
TRACKS ACRS AR SAT NGT AND ON SUN.

SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL AFFECT THE FA ON SAT AND SAT NGT AHEAD
OF THE UPR SYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR STORMS DOES EXIST AS
WELL...BUT THERE STILL ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SCENARIO ESP
WITH REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. ALSO...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS WL BE SHIFTING TO THE NE OF AR SUN AND
SUN NGT...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDS RETURNING TO THE MID SOUTH.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY UPR LVL SYS IS FCST TO ROTATE THRU THE AREA
LATE SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH SOME SMALL PRECIP CHCS INDCD FOR MAINLY
NRN AR. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WL END EARLY ENOUGH BEFORE COLDER
AIR MOVES IN FOR LTL IF ANY CHC OF WINTRY PRECIP.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     28  49  25  48 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         30  57  29  53 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       30  48  23  50 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  54  27  50 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  30  55  29  52 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     31  55  31  53 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      30  54  27  49 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  29  48  22  49 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        29  49  28  50 /   0   0   0  20
PINE BLUFF AR     30  55  30  52 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28  53  26  53 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         27  51  27  47 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      29  54  30  50 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...44






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