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000
FXUS64 KLZK 231144
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
644 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN WEST ARKANSAS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF ARKANSAS...WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AT THE SURFACE AND
COOLING ALOFT SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAYBE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END BY FRIDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE
FRONT WILL STALL IN OR NEAR THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS HAPPENS.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...ALL EYES WILL BE ON A NEW STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN KANSAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. BY MONDAY THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHILE
THE ECMWF MOVES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AND ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE MONDAY...BUT
IT IS A WAYS OUT YET. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR ARKANSAS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  51  77  50 /   0  10  70  20
CAMDEN AR         80  57  81  57 /   0  10  40  20
HARRISON AR       75  54  73  48 /   0  10  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    80  56  78  55 /   0  10  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  55  79  55 /   0  10  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     79  56  81  60 /   0  10  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      80  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  52  73  48 /   0  10  70  20
NEWPORT AR        76  52  77  51 /   0  10  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     79  55  81  57 /   0  10  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   78  54  76  51 /   0  10  50  10
SEARCY AR         77  50  79  53 /   0  10  60  20
STUTTGART AR      78  54  80  56 /   0  10  50  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 230855
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST. THAT WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF ARKANSAS...WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AT THE SURFACE AND
COOLING ALOFT SETTING THE STAGE FOR MAYBE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS.

PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END BY FRIDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE
FRONT WILL STALL IN OR NEAR THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS HAPPENS.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...ALL EYES WILL BE ON A NEW STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN KANSAS. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
STORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. BY MONDAY THIS UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHILE
THE ECMWF MOVES THE UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LOW PRESSURE IN NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST AHEAD OF THE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AND ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE MONDAY...BUT
IT IS A WAYS OUT YET. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR ARKANSAS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  51  77  50 /   0  10  70  20
CAMDEN AR         80  57  81  57 /   0  10  40  20
HARRISON AR       75  54  73  48 /   0  10  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    80  56  78  55 /   0  10  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  55  79  55 /   0  10  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     79  56  81  60 /   0  10  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      80  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  52  73  48 /   0  10  70  20
NEWPORT AR        76  52  77  51 /   0  10  60  30
PINE BLUFF AR     79  55  81  57 /   0  10  40  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   78  54  76  51 /   0  10  50  10
SEARCY AR         77  50  79  53 /   0  10  60  20
STUTTGART AR      78  54  80  56 /   0  10  50  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...51











000
FXUS64 KLZK 230549
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTH
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NW TO NE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE E
TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

CDFNT THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE FA ON MON AND MON NGT...
WAS SITUATED TO THE SE OF AR THIS AFTN. NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FNT
CONTD TO USHER DRIER AIR INTO AR TODAY...ESP ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PARTS OF THE STATE. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS RMN CONSISTENT TODAY REGARDING THE FCST IN THE
COMING DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH
OF WED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EWD. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS.

A NEW STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WED NGT AND ON
THU. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL ALLOW
FOR DECENT CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FA MAINLY THU AND EARLY THU
NGT. THE BEST RAIN CHCS STILL APPEARS TO BE ACRS NRN AR DURG THIS
TIME PD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPR SUPPORT/LIFT.

BENIGN CONDS WL RETURN TO THE NATURAL STATE FOR FRI AND FRI NGT AS
HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...BLD INTO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. WL START TO SEE SOME INCRS IN CLOUDS FM THE W FRI NGT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYS THAT WL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WITH ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE BY SUN...WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. OVER TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGER UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO MON.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL START OF LOW WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS
INTO A CLOSE LOW...AND ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS NEAR THE
STATE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SVR
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YR...AND
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE REGION AS
UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...ITS TOO EARLY TO TALK DETAILS
AT THIS TIME BEING 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT.

LATE IN THE FORECAST...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL GROW AS INFLUENCE
OF THE LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WOBBLES...AND HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL
GET...SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN TO
END APR. WHILE AGAIN IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS...THERE COULD
BE SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE COLD SNAP SEEN IN LATE APR/EARLY MAY OF
2013. THE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING TEMPS THAT COLD MAY BE LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SEE AT LEAST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO END THIS FORECAST BY NEXT TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     51  77  50  80 /  10  60  20  10
CAMDEN AR         57  81  57  84 /  10  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       54  73  48  79 /  10  60  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  78  55  81 /  10  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  79  55  82 /  10  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     56  81  60  83 /  10  30  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      56  76  52  81 /  10  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  73  48  79 /  10  60  20  10
NEWPORT AR        52  77  51  80 /  10  50  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     55  81  57  82 /  10  40  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  76  51  81 /  10  50  10  10
SEARCY AR         50  79  53  81 /  10  50  20  10
STUTTGART AR      54  80  56  81 /  10  40  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 222328 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NW TO NE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE E
TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

CDFNT THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE FA ON MON AND MON NGT...
WAS SITUATED TO THE SE OF AR THIS AFTN. NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FNT
CONTD TO USHER DRIER AIR INTO AR TODAY...ESP ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PARTS OF THE STATE. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS RMN CONSISTENT TODAY REGARDING THE FCST IN THE
COMING DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH
OF WED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EWD. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS.

A NEW STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WED NGT AND ON
THU. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL ALLOW
FOR DECENT CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FA MAINLY THU AND EARLY THU
NGT. THE BEST RAIN CHCS STILL APPEARS TO BE ACRS NRN AR DURG THIS
TIME PD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPR SUPPORT/LIFT.

BENIGN CONDS WL RETURN TO THE NATURAL STATE FOR FRI AND FRI NGT AS
HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...BLD INTO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. WL START TO SEE SOME INCRS IN CLOUDS FM THE W FRI NGT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYS THAT WL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WITH ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE BY SUN...WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. OVER TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGER UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO MON.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL START OF LOW WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS
INTO A CLOSE LOW...AND ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS NEAR THE
STATE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SVR
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YR...AND
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE REGION AS
UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...ITS TOO EARLY TO TALK DETAILS
AT THIS TIME BEING 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT.

LATE IN THE FORECAST...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL GROW AS INFLUENCE
OF THE LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WOBBLES...AND HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL
GET...SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN TO
END APR. WHILE AGAIN IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS...THERE COULD
BE SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE COLD SNAP SEEN IN LATE APR/EARLY MAY OF
2013. THE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING TEMPS THAT COLD MAY BE LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SEE AT LEAST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO END THIS FORECAST BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...62















000
FXUS64 KLZK 222200
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

CDFNT THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE FA ON MON AND MON NGT...
WAS SITUATED TO THE SE OF AR THIS AFTN. NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FNT
CONTD TO USHER DRIER AIR INTO AR TODAY...ESP ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PARTS OF THE STATE. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS RMN CONSISTENT TODAY REGARDING THE FCST IN THE
COMING DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH
OF WED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EWD. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS.

A NEW STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WED NGT AND ON
THU. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL ALLOW
FOR DECENT CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FA MAINLY THU AND EARLY THU
NGT. THE BEST RAIN CHCS STILL APPEARS TO BE ACRS NRN AR DURG THIS
TIME PD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPR SUPPORT/LIFT.

BENIGN CONDS WL RETURN TO THE NATURAL STATE FOR FRI AND FRI NGT AS
HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...BLD INTO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. WL START TO SEE SOME INCRS IN CLOUDS FM THE W FRI NGT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYS THAT WL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WITH ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE BY SUN...WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. OVER TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGER UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO MON.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL START OF LOW WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS
INTO A CLOSE LOW...AND ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS NEAR THE
STATE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SVR
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YR...AND
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE REGION AS
UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...ITS TOO EARLY TO TALK DETAILS
AT THIS TIME BEING 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT.

LATE IN THE FORECAST...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL GROW AS INFLUENCE
OF THE LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WOBBLES...AND HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL
GET...SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN TO
END APR. WHILE AGAIN IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS...THERE COULD
BE SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE COLD SNAP SEEN IN LATE APR/EARLY MAY OF
2013. THE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING TEMPS THAT COLD MAY BE LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SEE AT LEAST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO END THIS FORECAST BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...62












000
FXUS64 KLZK 222158
AFDLZK

RECENT OBSERVATIONS
APR 21-22 2014

METAR KLIT 221453Z 36009KT 10SM FEW018 21/13 A3001 RMK AO2
SLP161      T02110133 51013
METAR KLIT 221353Z 33009KT 10SM FEW010 19/16 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP160
     T01940156
METAR KLIT 221253Z 33007KT 5SM BR SCT006 17/16 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP156
     SCT006 V BKN T01720156
SPECI KLIT 221239Z 33008KT 5SM BR SCT006 17/16 A2998 RMK AO2 SCT006 V
     BKN
METAR KLIT 221153Z 31008KT 4SM BR BKN005 OVC070 17/16 A2997 RMK AO2
     SLP148 CIG RGD 70060 T01720156 10172 20167 53010 $
SPECI KLIT 221131Z 31008KT 4SM BR BKN005 OVC070 17/16 A2996 RMK AO2
     $
METAR KLIT 221053Z 30004KT 3SM BR BKN004 OVC065 17/16 A2994 RMK AO2
     SLP141 T01720156 $
METAR KLIT 220953Z 31006KT 3SM BR OVC004 17/16 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP143
     T01720156 $
SPECI KLIT 220946Z 31009KT 3SM BR OVC004 17/16 A2995 RMK AO2 $
METAR KLIT 220853Z 32005KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC004 17/16 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137
     VIS N 5 T01720156 58004 $
SPECI KLIT 220830Z 00000KT 2SM BR BKN004 17/16 A2994 RMK AO2 VIS W 3
     $
SPECI KLIT 220814Z 27003KT 1SM BR BKN004 17/16 A2994 RMK AO2 RVRNO $
SPECI KLIT 220800Z 28003KT 3/4SM BR OVC002 17/16 A2994 RMK AO2 VIS W 1
     1/2 RVRNO $
METAR KLIT 220753Z 00000KT 1/2SM FG OVC002 17/16 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP138
     VIS W 1 T01670156 RVRNO $
SPECI KLIT 220748Z 30003KT 1/2SM FG OVC002 17/16 A2994 RMK AO2 VIS W 1
     RVRNO $
SPECI KLIT 220711Z 32005KT 1/4SM FG OVC002 17/16 A2995 RMK AO2 RVRNO
     $
METAR KLIT 220653Z 33005KT 1/2SM FG BKN004 OVC120 17/16 A2995 RMK AO2
     SLP142 T01720161 RVRNO $
SPECI KLIT 220632Z 33003KT 2SM BR BKN004 OVC120 17/16 A2995 RMK AO2
     $
METAR KLIT 220553Z 00000KT 4SM BR FEW005 BKN031 OVC120 17/16 A2995 RMK
     AO2 SLP141 60021 T01670156 10189 20167 402670139 58010 $
METAR KLIT 220453Z 00000KT 7SM FEW012 BKN030 OVC040 18/16 A2997 RMK AO2
     DZB02E12RAB12E42 SLP149 P0006 T01780161 $
METAR KLIT 220353Z 35005KT 7SM OVC040 18/17 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP151
     T01780170 $
METAR KLIT 220253Z 01003KT 4SM BR FEW080 OVC095 18/18 A2998 RMK AO2
     RAE49 SLP152 P0001 60015 T01780175 53003 $
METAR KLIT 220153Z 00000KT 6SM RA BR SCT060 OVC080 18/18 A2997 RMK AO2
     SLP150 P0009 T01780178
METAR KLIT 220053Z 00000KT 8SM -RA FEW060 BKN070 OVC095 18/18 A2997 RMK
     AO2 SLP148 BINOVC P0005 T01780178
METAR KLIT 212353Z 33004KT 7SM -RA SCT070 OVC100 19/17 A2997 RMK AO2
     SLP149 P0004 60038 T01890167 10267 20183 51008
METAR KLIT 212253Z 31003KT 8SM -RA FEW012 SCT090 OVC100 19/17 A2996 RMK
     AO2 TSE34 SLP147 VIS E 4 P0029 T01890172
SPECI KLIT 212234Z 33005KT 10SM -RA FEW075 SCT090 OVC110 19/17 A2996 RMK
     AO2 TSE34 TS MOVD E P0026
SPECI KLIT 212208Z 00000KT 4SM TSRA BR SCT014 BKN033CB OVC050 19/17
     A2996 RMK AO2 OCNL LTGICCG E TS E MOV E P0019
SPECI KLIT 212201Z 22006G16KT 1SM +TSRA BR FEW014 BKN033CB OVC050 19/17
     A2998 RMK AO2 OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV E P0012 RVRNO
METAR KLIT 212153Z 27013G20KT 2SM +TSRA BR BKN048CB OVC060 20/17 A2997
     RMK AO2 TSB41RAB07 PRESRR SLP150 OCNL LTGICCG W TS W MOV E
     P0005 T02000167
SPECI KLIT 212141Z 30015KT 9SM -TSRA BKN050CB OVC070 22/16 A2995 RMK AO2
     TSB41RAB07 OCNL LTGICCG W TS W MOV E P0000
METAR KLIT 212053Z 36006KT 10SM SCT045 BKN080 OVC250 24/16 A2994 RMK AO2
     SLP139 SCT045 V BKN BINOVC 60000 T02440156 56022
METAR KLIT 211953Z 28006KT 10SM SCT045 BKN080 OVC250 26/13 A2996 RMK AO2
     SLP145 BINOVC T02610128

METAR KHOT 221553Z AUTO 03005KT 10SM CLR 22/11 A3003 RMK AO2
SLP163      T02220111
METAR KHOT 221453Z AUTO VRB04G14KT 10SM CLR 21/12 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP162
     T02110117 51014
METAR KHOT 221353Z AUTO VRB04KT 10SM CLR 19/16 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP160
     T01940156
METAR KHOT 221253Z AUTO 28003KT 5SM BR CLR 16/15 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP156
     T01610150
METAR KHOT 221153Z AUTO 29003KT 5SM BR FEW003 15/14 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP149
     70017 T01500144 10167 20150 51009
SPECI KHOT 221143Z AUTO 25004KT 4SM BR SCT003 15/14 A2998 RMK AO2
METAR KHOT 221053Z AUTO 25003KT 6SM BR OVC003 16/14 A2997 RMK AO2 CIG
     002V006 SLP144 T01560144
SPECI KHOT 221027Z AUTO 22003KT 4SM BR BKN003 15/14 A2997 RMK AO2
SPECI KHOT 221006Z AUTO 29003KT 4SM BR SCT003 16/14 A2997 RMK AO2
METAR KHOT 220953Z AUTO 29004KT 5SM BR BKN003 16/15 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144
     T01560150
SPECI KHOT 220932Z AUTO 31003KT 5SM BR OVC003 16/15 A2997 RMK AO2
SPECI KHOT 220922Z AUTO 29004KT 4SM BR OVC001 16/15 A2996 RMK AO2
SPECI KHOT 220909Z AUTO 29003KT 2SM BR OVC001 16/15 A2996 RMK AO2
SPECI KHOT 220859Z AUTO 30003KT 1SM BR VV001 16/15 A2996 RMK AO2
METAR KHOT 220853Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV001 16/15 A2995 RMK AO2
     SLP139 T01560150 55004
SPECI KHOT 220831Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV001 16/15 A2995 RMK AO2
SPECI KHOT 220804Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV002 16/15 A2995 RMK AO2
METAR KHOT 220753Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV001 16/15 A2995 RMK AO2
     SLP138 T01610150
METAR KHOT 220653Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV001 16/15 A2997 RMK AO2
     SLP143 T01610150
SPECI KHOT 220645Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV001 16/15 A2997 RMK AO2
SPECI KHOT 220634Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM BR VV001 16/15 A2997 RMK AO2
SPECI KHOT 220631Z AUTO 28003KT 1 3/4SM BR SCT001 16/15 A2997 RMK
     AO2
SPECI KHOT 220621Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM BR FEW001 16/15 A2996 RMK AO2
SPECI KHOT 220605Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM BR SCT001 16/16 A2996 RMK
     AO2
METAR KHOT 220553Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/4SM BR FEW001 17/16 A2997 RMK AO2
     SLP142 60010 T01670156 10183 20167 402560167 56007
SPECI KHOT 220535Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM BR FEW001 BKN100 17/16 A2997 RMK
     AO2 VIS 1/4V5
SPECI KHOT 220512Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM BR OVC100 17/16 A2997 RMK AO2
METAR KHOT 220453Z AUTO 00000KT 2SM BR FEW003 OVC100 17/16 A2997 RMK AO2
     SLP143 T01720161
SPECI KHOT 220446Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM BR FEW003 SCT031 OVC100 17/16
     A2997 RMK AO2
METAR KHOT 220353Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC032 17/16 A2998 RMK AO2 RAB23E32
     SLP147 P0000 T01720161
SPECI KHOT 220330Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM -RA OVC030 17/16 A2999 RMK AO2 RAB23
     P0000

METAR KADF 221356Z AUTO 36004KT 10SM CLR 19/17 A3001 RMK AO2
T01880166      SLP177
METAR KADF 221256Z AUTO 26003KT 6SM BR FEW031 17/16 A3000 RMK AO2
     T01660161 SLP174
SPECI KADF 221214Z AUTO 27004KT 5SM BR FEW003 15/15 A3000 RMK AO2
METAR KADF 221156Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM BR CLR 15/15 A2999 RMK AO2 51016
     70054 T01500150 10177 20144 SLP169
METAR KADF 221056Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM BR CLR 16/16 A2998 RMK AO2 T01550155
     SLP165
SPECI KADF 221017Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM BR FEW017 16/16 A2997 RMK AO2
METAR KADF 220956Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN019 17/17 A2997 RMK AO2 T01660166
     SLP163
SPECI KADF 220920Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM BR CLR 16/16 A2996 RMK AO2
SPECI KADF 220901Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM BR CLR 16/16 A2995 RMK AO2
METAR KADF 220856Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM BR CLR 16/16 A2995 RMK AO2 58008
     T01550155 SLP154
METAR KADF 220756Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM BR FEW002 17/17 A2995 RMK AO2
     T01660166 SLP155
SPECI KADF 220746Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM BR BKN002 17/17 A2996 RMK
     AO2
SPECI KADF 220744Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM BR VV002 17/17 A2996 RMK AO2
SPECI KADF 220739Z AUTO 00000KT 1/2SM FG VV002 17/17 A2996 RMK AO2
SPECI KADF 220734Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM BR BKN002 17/17 A2996 RMK AO2
SPECI KADF 220732Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM BR BKN039 17/17 A2996 RMK
     AO2
METAR KADF 220656Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM OVC037 17/17 A2997 RMK AO2 T01720172
     SLP160
SPECI KADF 220635Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM OVC031 18/18 A2997 RMK AO2
SPECI KADF 220609Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN029 18/18 A2996 RMK AO2
METAR KADF 220556Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM SCT031 17/17 A2996 RMK AO2 58003
     60010 T01720172 10183 20172 SLP158
SPECI KADF 220517Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM SCT025 17/17 A2997 RMK AO2
METAR KADF 220456Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM FEW015 OVC021 18/17 A2997 RMK AO2
     T01770172 402720161 SLP161
SPECI KADF 220404Z AUTO 01005KT 9SM FEW006 SCT013 OVC018 18/18 A2997 RMK
     AO2
METAR KADF 220356Z AUTO 02005KT 8SM BKN006 OVC015 18/18 A2997 RMK AO2
     T01770177 BKN V SCT SLP162
SPECI KADF 220334Z AUTO 01005KT 8SM BKN006 BKN026 BKN041 18/18 A2998 RMK
     AO2 CIG 004V011
METAR KADF 220256Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM FEW004 SCT043 SCT095 18/18 A2997 RMK
     AO2 50013 60010 T01770177 TSE30RAE29 P0001 SLP162
SPECI KADF 220237Z AUTO 06003KT 6SM BR FEW002 SCT095 18/18 A2997 RMK AO2
     LTG DSNT E AND SE TSE30RAE29 P0001
SPECI KADF 220217Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM -VCTSRA BR SCT002 SCT033 18/18 A2997
     RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE P0001
SPECI KADF 220204Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM -TSRA BR SCT002 BKN008 BKN026 18/18
     A2997 RMK AO2 CIG 007V013 LTG DSNT E AND SE P0001
SPECI KADF 220159Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM -TSRA BR BKN002 BKN026 OVC034
     18/18 A2997 RMK AO2 CIG 002V007 LTG DSNT SE AND SW P0001
METAR KADF 220156Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM VCTSRA BR SCT002 BKN025 OVC034
     18/18 A2997 RMK AO2 T01830177 BKN V SCT LTG DSNT SE AND SW
     TSB27RAB0059 P0009 SLP163
SPECI KADF 220143Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM VCTSRA BR SCT002 BKN028 OVC043 18/18
     A2997 RMK AO2 OVC V BKN LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB27RAB0059 P0007
SPECI KADF 220130Z AUTO 01003KT 3SM -VCTSRA BR SCT002 BKN037 18/18 A2996
     RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND E AND SW TSB27RAB0059 P0006
SPECI KADF 220122Z AUTO 05003KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW002 OVC037 18/18 A2996
     RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E AND SW RAB0059 P0006
METAR KADF 220056Z AUTO 32003KT 10SM OVC039 18/17 A2995 RMK AO2
     T01830172 OVC V BKN LTG DSNT NE RAB30E45 P0000 SLP157
METAR KADF 212356Z AUTO 06004KT 10SM BKN047 18/18 A2993 RMK AO2 58006
     60044 T01830177 10272 20183 RAE2257 SLP150
METAR KADF 212256Z AUTO 05003KT 7SM -RA FEW004 BKN050 BKN060 18/18 A2996
     RMK AO2 T01830177 BKN V SCT RAB03 P0001 SLP158
SPECI KADF 212241Z AUTO 34006KT 5SM -RA BR FEW006 BKN055 19/18 A2997 RMK
     AO2 BKN V OVC RAB03 P0000
METAR KADF 212156Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM FEW049 19/18 A2997 RMK AO2 T01880177
     LTG DSNT E AND SE TSE47RAB01E49 P0043 SLP163
SPECI KADF 212140Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM -TSRA BR SCT002 SCT022 BKN044 19/18
     A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE-S RAB01 P0043
SPECI KADF 212129Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM -TSRA BR BKN002 BKN022 OVC070 18/18
     A2998 RMK AO2 OVC V BKN LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB01 P0042
SPECI KADF 212117Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/2SM +TSRA BR BKN002 BKN011 OVC060
     19/17 A2999 RMK AO2 BKN V SCT LTG DSNT NE AND SW RAB01
     P0039
SPECI KADF 212115Z AUTO 25003KT 1 1/4SM +TSRA BR SCT002 BKN011 OVC060
     19/17 A2999 RMK AO2 BKN V SCT LTG DSNT NE AND SW RAB01
     P0036
SPECI KADF 212106Z AUTO 26008G22KT 3/4SM +TSRA SCT002 BKN060 21/18 A2999
     RMK AO2 BKN V OVC LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB01 P0027
SPECI KADF 212104Z AUTO 30010G22KT 260V320 1 1/4SM +TSRA FEW002 BKN060
     22/17 A3001 RMK AO2 BKN V OVC LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB01 P0022
     PRESRR
SPECI KADF 212102Z AUTO 31016G22KT 2 1/2SM -TSRA FEW002 BKN060 23/16
     A3000 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB01 P0012 PRESRR
METAR KADF 212056Z AUTO 31008KT 10SM TS BKN060 24/14 A2997 RMK AO2 58020
     60000 T02440138 LTG DSNT SW-N TSB49 PRESRR SLP163

METAR KPBF 221753Z AUTO 35010KT 10SM CLR 23/14 A2998 RMK AO2
SLP150      T02330139 10233 20161 58006
SPECI KPBF 221725Z AUTO 02013G18KT 10SM FEW029 23/14 A2998 RMK AO2
METAR KPBF 221653Z AUTO 34011KT 10SM BKN025 BKN030 22/16 A3000 RMK AO2
     SLP156 T02220156
METAR KPBF 221553Z AUTO 01011KT 10SM OVC019 21/16 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP158
     T02060161
METAR KPBF 221453Z AUTO 33008KT 10SM OVC015 19/16 A3000 RMK AO2 SLP155
     T01890161 51012
SPECI KPBF 221440Z AUTO 33008KT 10SM OVC015 18/16 A3000 RMK AO2
SPECI KPBF 221402Z AUTO 34007KT 10SM OVC010 18/16 A2999 RMK AO2 CIG
     007V014
METAR KPBF 221353Z AUTO 33009KT 9SM BKN008 OVC013 18/16 A2999 RMK AO2
     CIG 006V011 SLP153 T01780161
SPECI KPBF 221319Z AUTO 31006KT 6SM BR OVC006 17/16 A2998 RMK AO2 CIG
     004V010
METAR KPBF 221253Z AUTO 32006KT 4SM BR OVC004 16/16 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP150
     T01610156
SPECI KPBF 221231Z AUTO 32006KT 3SM BR OVC004 16/15 A2997 RMK AO2
SPECI KPBF 221220Z AUTO 30004KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC004 16/15 A2997 RMK
     AO2
SPECI KPBF 221200Z AUTO 29004KT 4SM BR BKN004 16/15 A2996 RMK AO2
METAR KPBF 221153Z AUTO 30004KT 4SM BR SCT004 16/15 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP143
     70016 T01610150 10178 20150 53010
SPECI KPBF 221126Z AUTO 30003KT 6SM BR SCT005 BKN055 16/16 A2995 RMK
     AO2
SPECI KPBF 221119Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM BR SCT005 SCT019 BKN029 16/16 A2995
     RMK AO2
SPECI KPBF 221108Z AUTO 31005KT 5SM BR BKN005 BKN019 OVC030 16/16 A2995
     RMK AO2
SPECI KPBF 221102Z AUTO 32009KT 5SM BR SCT005 SCT019 OVC030 17/16 A2996
     RMK AO2
METAR KPBF 221053Z AUTO 31006KT 5SM BR FEW019 OVC032 17/16 A2995 RMK AO2
     SLP141 T01670156
SPECI KPBF 221044Z AUTO 31005KT 4SM BR SCT002 OVC032 17/16 A2995 RMK
     AO2
SPECI KPBF 221033Z AUTO 31004KT 4SM BR BKN002 OVC034 17/16 A2995 RMK
     AO2
SPECI KPBF 221024Z AUTO 32006KT 2SM BR OVC002 17/16 A2995 RMK AO2
SPECI KPBF 221000Z AUTO 30004KT 1/2SM FG VV003 15/14 A2994 RMK AO2
METAR KPBF 220953Z AUTO 00000KT 1 1/4SM BR FEW002 16/16 A2993 RMK AO2
     SLP133 T01610156
SPECI KPBF 220924Z AUTO 00000KT 2SM BR CLR 16/16 A2993 RMK AO2
METAR KPBF 220853Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM BR BKN037 17/16 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP132
     T01670156 58007

METAR KLLQ 221653Z AUTO VRB05KT 10SM BKN014 OVC018 20/17 A2999 RMK
AO2      SLP152 T02000167
SPECI KLLQ 221643Z AUTO 02004KT 10SM OVC016 20/17 A2999 RMK AO2
METAR KLLQ 221553Z AUTO 33004KT 10SM OVC012 19/17 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP153
     T01940167
SPECI KLLQ 221508Z AUTO 33008KT 10SM OVC010 19/17 A2998 RMK AO2 CIG
     007V013
METAR KLLQ 221453Z AUTO 32004KT 8SM OVC008 19/16 A2999 RMK AO2 CIG
     005V013 SLP152 P0001 60001 T01890161 53011
SPECI KLLQ 221447Z AUTO VRB04KT 9SM SCT006 OVC011 19/16 A2999 RMK AO2
     P0001
SPECI KLLQ 221437Z AUTO 32008KT 7SM OVC006 19/17 A2998 RMK AO2 CIG
     005V009 P0001
METAR KLLQ 221353Z AUTO 30009KT 6SM BR BKN004 OVC009 18/16 A2998 RMK AO2
     SLP149 T01780161
METAR KLLQ 221253Z AUTO 29005KT 4SM BR OVC004 18/17 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP141
     T01780167
METAR KLLQ 221153Z AUTO VRB03KT 4SM BR OVC004 17/16 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140
     60086 70130 T01720161 10172 20167 53013
SPECI KLLQ 221103Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM BR BKN004 17/16 A2993 RMK AO2
METAR KLLQ 221053Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM BR SCT004 SCT038 17/16 A2993 RMK AO2
     RAE02 SLP134 P0000 T01720161
SPECI KLLQ 221030Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM SCT011 SCT023 BKN038 17/16 A2992 RMK
     AO2 RAE02 P0000
SPECI KLLQ 221018Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM SCT004 BKN011 OVC024 17/17 A2992 RMK
     AO2 RAE02 P0000
METAR KLLQ 220953Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM -RA BR BKN004 OVC009 17/17 A2992 RMK
     AO2 RAB53 CIG 002V007 SLP129 P0000 T01720167
SPECI KLLQ 220909Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM BR BKN004 OVC013 17/16 A2992 RMK
     AO2
SPECI KLLQ 220901Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM SCT004 OVC011 17/16 A2991 RMK
     AO2
METAR KLLQ 220853Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN004 OVC011 17/16 A2991 RMK AO2
     RAE43 SLP127 P0001 60086 T01720161 58003
SPECI KLLQ 220836Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM -RA BKN004 OVC009 17/16 A2992 RMK
     AO2 P0001
SPECI KLLQ 220808Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM -RA BKN009 OVC015 17/16 A2992 RMK
     AO2 CIG 004V012 P0000
METAR KLLQ 220753Z AUTO 36003KT 6SM -RA BR FEW005 OVC015 17/16 A2992 RMK
     AO2 SLP129 P0074 T01720161
SPECI KLLQ 220751Z AUTO 00000KT 5SM -RA BR FEW005 OVC015 17/16 A2992 RMK
     AO2 P0074
SPECI KLLQ 220743Z AUTO 36003KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW005 BKN015 OVC024
     17/16 A2992 RMK AO2 P0073
SPECI KLLQ 220740Z AUTO 03003KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR FEW005 BKN013 OVC024
     17/16 A2992 RMK AO2 P0073
SPECI KLLQ 220719Z AUTO 34004KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN016 OVC030
     17/17 A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S P0029
SPECI KLLQ 220711Z AUTO 02004KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT003 BKN008 OVC027
     17/16 A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S P0018
METAR KLLQ 220653Z AUTO 03004KT 4SM -RA BR BKN003 BKN027 OVC032 17/16
     A2992 RMK AO2 TSB11E53RAE09B27 SLP130 P0011 T01720161
SPECI KLLQ 220649Z AUTO 04005KT 4SM -TSRA BR BKN003 BKN020 OVC032 17/16
     A2992 RMK AO2 TSB11RAE09B27 P0010
SPECI KLLQ 220641Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM +TSRA BR BKN003 OVC029 17/17
     A2992 RMK AO2 TSB11RAE09B27 P0010
SPECI KLLQ 220622Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM VCTS BR BKN003 BKN038 OVC085 17/17
     A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE TSB11RAE09 P0000
SPECI KLLQ 220611Z AUTO 07005KT 8SM VCTS SCT005 BKN047 OVC060 17/16
     A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE-W TSB11RAE09 P0000
METAR KLLQ 220553Z AUTO 14006KT 4SM -RA BR SCT041 BKN050 OVC090 17/16
     A2992 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S-W TSB18E45RAE09B37 SLP129 P0013
     60044 T01720161 10233 20172 402780161 58013
SPECI KLLQ 220546Z AUTO 12004KT 2SM +RA BR FEW015 BKN044 OVC055 17/16
     A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE-W TSB18E45RAE09B37 P0011
SPECI KLLQ 220544Z AUTO 12004KT 1 3/4SM VCTS +RA BR FEW015 BKN044 OVC070
     17/16 A2993 RMK AO2 VIS 1V5 LTG DSNT SE AND SW TSB18RAE09B37
     P0010
SPECI KLLQ 220524Z AUTO 10005KT 7SM VCTS FEW003 BKN055 OVC070 17/16
     A2993 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE-W TSB18RAE09 P0000
SPECI KLLQ 220510Z AUTO 06003KT 8SM SCT003 BKN049 OVC065 17/16 A2994 RMK
     AO2 LTG DSNT S-W RAE09 P0000
METAR KLLQ 220453Z AUTO 08004KT 3SM -RA BR BKN043 BKN055 OVC070 17/16
     A2994 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND S AND SW SLP137 P0022
     T01720161
SPECI KLLQ 220441Z AUTO 07003KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR FEW006 BKN035 OVC043
     17/16 A2995 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW P0015
SPECI KLLQ 220422Z AUTO VRB04KT 9SM FEW004 BKN043 OVC050 17/16 A2996 RMK
     AO2 RAE15 P0001 TSNO
METAR KLLQ 220353Z AUTO 03003KT 3SM -RA BR FEW045 BKN055 OVC070 18/16
     A2996 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NW RAE05B23 SLP142 P0006 T01780161
METAR KLLQ 220253Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA FEW050 BKN080 OVC100 18/16
     A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 P0002 60003 T01780156 53009
METAR KLLQ 220153Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA SCT070 OVC085 18/16 A2995 RMK
     AO2 RAB41 SLP140 P0000 T01830161
METAR KLLQ 220053Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW070 BKN095 OVC110 19/16 A2994
     RMK AO2 RAB09E53 SLP136 P0001 T01890156
METAR KLLQ 212353Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 24/14 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP134
     T02390139 10278 20239 56009

METAR KHRO 221353Z AUTO 36008KT 10SM CLR 16/11 A3006 RMK AO2
SLP173      T01560106
METAR KHRO 221253Z AUTO 34004KT 10SM CLR 14/11 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP173
     T01390111
METAR KHRO 221153Z AUTO 31003KT 8SM CLR 13/11 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP169 70020
     T01280111 10156 20128 53019
METAR KHRO 221053Z AUTO 28003KT 7SM CLR 13/12 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP161
     T01330122
METAR KHRO 220953Z AUTO 30003KT 8SM CLR 14/13 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP155
     T01390133
METAR KHRO 220853Z AUTO 30006KT 8SM CLR 15/14 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP146
     T01500139 53002
SPECI KHRO 220810Z AUTO 30008KT 10SM FEW007 15/14 A2998 RMK AO2
METAR KHRO 220753Z AUTO 31006KT 10SM FEW010 SCT070 16/14 A2998 RMK AO2
     SLP143 T01560139
METAR KHRO 220653Z AUTO 30007KT 10SM FEW043 16/14 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP145
     T01560144
METAR KHRO 220553Z AUTO 29004KT 10SM FEW100 16/14 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP146
     60006 T01560139 10172 20150 402170150 58007
METAR KHRO 220453Z AUTO 30005KT 10SM FEW046 BKN060 OVC095 16/14 A3000
     RMK AO2 SLP150 T01560144
METAR KHRO 220353Z AUTO 28003KT 10SM OVC055 16/14 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP155
     T01560144
METAR KHRO 220253Z AUTO 28003KT 8SM CLR 16/14 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP153 60006
     T01560144 53009
METAR KHRO 220153Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW070 BKN100 16/15 A2999 RMK AO2
     RAE0057 SLP149 P0000 T01560150
SPECI KHRO 220115Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT014 SCT025 16/15 A2998 RMK AO2
     RAE0057 P0000
METAR KHRO 220053Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM -RA BKN014 BKN020 OVC028 17/16
     A2998 RMK AO2 SLP143 P0006 T01670156
SPECI KHRO 220050Z AUTO 33003KT 8SM -RA BKN014 BKN020 OVC028 17/16 A2998
     RMK AO2 P0006
SPECI KHRO 220037Z AUTO VRB03KT 5SM RA BR SCT016 OVC020 17/16 A2998 RMK
     AO2 P0005
SPECI KHRO 220028Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN015 BKN020 OVC035
     17/16 A2997 RMK AO2 P0004
SPECI KHRO 220021Z AUTO 34004KT 3SM -RA BR BKN015 BKN024 OVC065 17/16
     A2997 RMK AO2 P0003
METAR KHRO 212353Z AUTO 01003KT 3SM RA BR FEW034 SCT055 OVC070 17/15
     A2997 RMK AO2 RAB38 SLP140 P0003 60012 T01720150 10217 20167
     55001
METAR KHRO 212253Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW095 18/16 A2997 RMK AO2
     TSE2157RAE33 SLP139 P0004 T01780156
SPECI KHRO 212212Z AUTO 17007KT 9SM -RA FEW034 OVC070 17/14 A2996 RMK
     AO2 TSE2157 P0004
SPECI KHRO 212157Z AUTO 22006KT 2SM +RA BR SCT030 BKN037 OVC065 17/15
     A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E TSE57 P0002
METAR KHRO 212153Z AUTO 23008KT 4SM VCTS RA BR SCT030 BKN036 OVC047
     17/14 A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E TSB17E37B42RAB30 SLP140 P0005
     T01670144
SPECI KHRO 212142Z AUTO 24009G16KT 3SM VCTS RA FEW026 BKN032 OVC042
     18/14 A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE AND E TSB17E37B42RAB30
     P0003
SPECI KHRO 212123Z AUTO 30006KT 10SM VCTS SCT038 BKN045 OVC080 21/14
     A2996 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E TSB17

METAR KBPK 221553Z AUTO 34003KT 10SM CLR 18/03 A3004 RMK AO2
SLP167      T01830033
METAR KBPK 221453Z AUTO 33006KT 10SM CLR 17/05 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP167
     T01720050 53010
METAR KBPK 221353Z AUTO VRB06KT 8SM CLR 16/07 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP163
     T01610072
METAR KBPK 221253Z AUTO 34004KT 8SM CLR 14/12 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP162
     T01440117
METAR KBPK 221153Z AUTO 33004KT 6SM BR CLR 13/12 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP158
     60001 70019 T01330117 10156 20133 53020
METAR KBPK 221053Z AUTO 33003KT 6SM BR CLR 14/13 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP147
     P0001 T01390128
METAR KBPK 220953Z AUTO 32003KT 6SM BR CLR 14/13 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP140
     T01440133
METAR KBPK 220853Z AUTO 31003KT 6SM BR CLR 15/14 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP135
     T01500139 55002
METAR KBPK 220753Z AUTO 30005KT 7SM CLR 15/14 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP133
     T01500139
METAR KBPK 220653Z AUTO VRB03KT 8SM FEW022 15/14 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP137
     T01500144
METAR KBPK 220553Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM FEW034 BKN110 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2
     SLP138 60001 T01560144 10167 20156 402170150 58009
METAR KBPK 220453Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN043 OVC050 16/16 A2997 RMK AO2
     SLP143 T01610156
METAR KBPK 220353Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC100 16/16 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP145
     T01610161
METAR KBPK 220253Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN070 OVC100 16/16 A2998 RMK AO2
     SLP147 60001 T01610161 53012
METAR KBPK 220153Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN100 16/15 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP140
     T01610150
METAR KBPK 220053Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM FEW048 BKN100 16/15 A2995 RMK AO2
     RAE52 SLP136 P0001 T01610150
METAR KBPK 212353Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM -RA SCT080 OVC100 16/14 A2994 RMK
     AO2 SLP135 P0012 60015 T01610144 10217 20161 56007
SPECI KBPK 212340Z AUTO 34003KT 3SM RA BR OVC090 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2
     P0011
SPECI KBPK 212332Z AUTO 32003KT 1 3/4SM RA BR OVC090 16/14 A2995 RMK AO2
     P0010
SPECI KBPK 212321Z AUTO 00000KT 2SM RA BR BKN080 OVC095 16/14 A2995 RMK
     AO2 P0005
METAR KBPK 212253Z AUTO 30003KT 4SM -RA FEW024 SCT037 OVC090 17/14 A2995
     RMK AO2 RAB37 SLP135 P0002 T01670139
METAR KBPK 212153Z AUTO 19003KT 9SM FEW023 OVC080 22/14 A2995 RMK AO2
     LTG DSNT W SLP135 T02170144
METAR KBPK 212053Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM BKN065 OVC110 21/14 A2997 RMK AO2
     SLP140 60001 T02110139 56020
METAR KBPK 211953Z AUTO VRB05KT 10SM FEW080 SCT095 SCT120 21/13 A2998
     RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE RAE27 SLP144 P0001 T02110133
METAR KBPK 211853Z AUTO 32005KT 7SM -RA BKN060 OVC085 19/15 A3001 RMK
     AO2 LTG DSNT SE RAE18B53 SLP155 P0000 T01940150
METAR KBPK 211753Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM -RA SCT040 BKN048 OVC060 19/15 A3003
     RMK AO2 RAB52 SLP161 P0000 60002 T01890150 10200 20150
     58007
METAR KBPK 211653Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM SCT020 SCT024 OVC048 19/16 A3004 RMK
     AO2 RAE1554 SLP165 T01940156
METAR KBPK 211553Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM -RA FEW015 BKN055 OVC075 19/14 A3004
     RMK AO2 RAB44 SLP165 P0000 T01890144
METAR KBPK 211453Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM BKN046 OVC065 18/15 A3005 RMK AO2
     SLP167 60002 T01830150 58001
METAR KBPK 211353Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM BR FEW036 BKN070 OVC110 17/15 A3004
     RMK AO2 SLP166 T01720150
SPECI KBPK 211322Z AUTO 00000KT 4SM BR SCT048 OVC065 16/14 A3005 RMK
     AO2
SPECI KBPK 211313Z AUTO 00000KT 2 1/2SM BR SCT042 BKN049 OVC060 16/14
     A3005 RMK AO2
METAR KBPK 211253Z AUTO 00000KT 3SM BR BKN042 OVC049 16/14 A3006 RMK AO2
     RAE22 SLP171 P0002 T01560139
METAR KBPK 211153Z AUTO 14003KT 6SM -RA BR OVC046 16/14 A3005 RMK AO2
     RAB1054 SLP168 P0001 60002 70002 T01560139 10178 20150
     53001
METAR KBPK 211053Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM OVC055 16/13 A3004 RMK AO2 RAE43
     SLP162 P0001 T01610133
METAR KBPK 210953Z AUTO 00000KT 7SM -RA BKN055 OVC070 16/13 A3004 RMK
     AO2 RAB31 SLP165 P0000 T01610128
METAR KBPK 210853Z AUTO 16004KT 9SM OVC080 17/11 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP166
     60000 T01720111 53002
METAR KBPK 210753Z AUTO 16004KT 9SM FEW090 SCT110 17/10 A3003 RMK AO2
     SLP159 T01720100
METAR KBPK 210653Z AUTO 18003KT 10SM FEW070 SCT090 OVC100 18/11 A3005
     RMK AO2 RAB33E52 SLP166 P0000 T01780106
METAR KBPK 210553Z AUTO 15003KT 9SM CLR 18/09 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP164
     T01780094 10244 20161 402780111 58009








000
FXUS64 KLZK 221931
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

CDFNT THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE FA ON MON AND MON NGT...
WAS SITUATED TO THE SE OF AR THIS AFTN. NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE FNT
CONTD TO USHER DRIER AIR INTO AR TODAY...ESP ACRS THE NRN AND CNTRL
PARTS OF THE STATE. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS RMN CONSISTENT TODAY REGARDING THE FCST IN THE
COMING DAYS. WEAK HIGH PRES RDG WL BLD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU MUCH
OF WED...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EWD. THIS WL RESULT IN DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDS.

A NEW STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE WED NGT AND ON
THU. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL ALLOW
FOR DECENT CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FA MAINLY THU AND EARLY THU
NGT. THE BEST RAIN CHCS STILL APPEARS TO BE ACRS NRN AR DURG THIS
TIME PD...CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPR SUPPORT/LIFT.

BENIGN CONDS WL RETURN TO THE NATURAL STATE FOR FRI AND FRI NGT AS
HIGH PRES...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...BLD INTO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. WL START TO SEE SOME INCRS IN CLOUDS FM THE W FRI NGT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYS THAT WL AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THIS HAPPENS...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO...WITH ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE BY SUN...WITH MOISTURE
LEVELS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. OVER TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGER UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS LATE SUN INTO MON.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL START OF LOW WITH THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS
INTO A CLOSE LOW...AND ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS NEAR THE
STATE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SVR
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YR...AND
WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR AND MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THE REGION AS
UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...ITS TOO EARLY TO TALK DETAILS
AT THIS TIME BEING 5 TO 6 DAYS OUT.

LATE IN THE FORECAST...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WILL GROW AS INFLUENCE
OF THE LARGE UPPER CLOSED LOW BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. DEPENDING ON
WHERE THIS UPPER LOW WOBBLES...AND HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL
GET...SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN TO
END APR. WHILE AGAIN IT IS TOO EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS...THERE COULD
BE SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE COLD SNAP SEEN IN LATE APR/EARLY MAY OF
2013. THE CONFIDENCE IN SEEING TEMPS THAT COLD MAY BE LOW AT THIS
TIME...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SEE AT LEAST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO END THIS FORECAST BY NEXT TUE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...62









000
FXUS64 KLZK 221702 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1202 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CIGS ACROSS THE SERN SITES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MRNG FOG AND ALSO TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TEMP AND CLOUD TRENDS. CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACRS SERN AR SHLD
CONT TO DCRS HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS. ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT READINGS. NO CHGS TO HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN. REST OF
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STILL HAVE SOME RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER MOVING
THROUGH AREAS SOUTH OF PINE BLUFF AND ARKADELPHIA. THIS SHOULD
PUSH COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING RAIN YESTERDAY EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOG HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE...BUT DENSE FOG IS
FAIRLY LOCALIZED SO NO ADVISORIES WERE NEEDED. FOG WILL CLEAR UP
LATER THIS MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. SPEAKING OF
SAID FRONT...IT WAS SITUATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AS OF 2
AM...BUT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...USHERING IN AN AIR
MASS THAT WILL BE DRIER BUT NOT ANY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY...TOMORROW...AND
EVEN THURSDAY DESPITE ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE
NORTH...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AS WELL. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL IN NRN
LOUISIANA FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
SPILLING BACK INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF IT.
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.

BIGGER CHANCE WILL COME ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER SYSTEM
WINDS UP IN THE PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTH A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ADDRESSED IN SUCCESSIVE FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  47  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         80  51  79  57 /  10   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       71  46  74  55 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  51  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  51  76  55 /  10   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     79  52  78  56 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      77  47  76  56 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  45  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        74  47  73  53 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     77  51  76  55 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   78  48  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         75  45  72  50 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      76  49  74  55 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 221533
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1033 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MRNG FOG AND ALSO TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TEMP AND CLOUD TRENDS. CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACRS SERN AR SHLD
CONT TO DCRS HEADING INTO THE AFTN HRS. ADJUSTED HRLY TEMPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT READINGS. NO CHGS TO HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN. REST OF
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR FOG WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND CEILINGS INCREASE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 16Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STILL HAVE SOME RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER MOVING
THROUGH AREAS SOUTH OF PINE BLUFF AND ARKADELPHIA. THIS SHOULD
PUSH COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING RAIN YESTERDAY EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOG HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE...BUT DENSE FOG IS
FAIRLY LOCALIZED SO NO ADVISORIES WERE NEEDED. FOG WILL CLEAR UP
LATER THIS MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. SPEAKING OF
SAID FRONT...IT WAS SITUATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AS OF 2
AM...BUT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...USHERING IN AN AIR
MASS THAT WILL BE DRIER BUT NOT ANY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY...TOMORROW...AND
EVEN THURSDAY DESPITE ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE
NORTH...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AS WELL. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL IN NRN
LOUISIANA FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
SPILLING BACK INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF IT.
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.

BIGGER CHANCE WILL COME ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER SYSTEM
WINDS UP IN THE PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTH A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ADDRESSED IN SUCCESSIVE FORECAST PACKAGES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 221102 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
602 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR AND IFR FOG WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND CEILINGS INCREASE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ALL AREAS BECOMING VFR BY AROUND 16Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STILL HAVE SOME RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER MOVING
THROUGH AREAS SOUTH OF PINE BLUFF AND ARKADELPHIA. THIS SHOULD
PUSH COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING RAIN YESTERDAY EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOG HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE...BUT DENSE FOG IS
FAIRLY LOCALIZED SO NO ADVISORIES WERE NEEDED. FOG WILL CLEAR UP
LATER THIS MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. SPEAKING OF
SAID FRONT...IT WAS SITUATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AS OF 2
AM...BUT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...USHERING IN AN AIR
MASS THAT WILL BE DRIER BUT NOT ANY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY...TOMORROW...AND
EVEN THURSDAY DESPITE ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE
NORTH...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AS WELL. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL IN NRN
LOUISIANA FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
SPILLING BACK INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF IT.
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.

BIGGER CHANCE WILL COME ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER SYSTEM
WINDS UP IN THE PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTH A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ADDRESSED IN SUCCESSIVE FORECAST PACKAGES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 220729
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STILL HAVE SOME RAIN WITH AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER MOVING
THROUGH AREAS SOUTH OF PINE BLUFF AND ARKADELPHIA. THIS SHOULD
PUSH COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WITH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING RAIN YESTERDAY EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOG HAS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE...BUT DENSE FOG IS
FAIRLY LOCALIZED SO NO ADVISORIES WERE NEEDED. FOG WILL CLEAR UP
LATER THIS MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. SPEAKING OF
SAID FRONT...IT WAS SITUATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AS OF 2
AM...BUT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE TODAY...USHERING IN AN AIR
MASS THAT WILL BE DRIER BUT NOT ANY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY...TOMORROW...AND
EVEN THURSDAY DESPITE ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE STATE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE
NORTH...BUT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SEEN IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AS WELL. THE FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL IN NRN
LOUISIANA FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON. DID INCLUDE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
SPILLING BACK INTO THE SRN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF IT.
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
PRECIP.

BIGGER CHANCE WILL COME ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER SYSTEM
WINDS UP IN THE PLAINS AND MOVES SOUTH A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...BUT THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ADDRESSED IN SUCCESSIVE FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  47  73  52 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         79  51  79  57 /  10   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       70  46  74  55 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  51  77  57 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  51  76  55 /  10   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  52  78  56 /  20   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      76  47  76  56 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  45  74  53 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        73  47  73  53 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     76  51  76  55 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  48  77  54 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         74  45  72  50 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      75  49  74  55 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 220516 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1216 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO IFR IN ALL BUT THE
NORTHWEST AS STRATUS AND FOG PERSIST. OTHERWISE...AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE...ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE...AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPNG...AND HAVE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER THAN UPDATING FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK...WITH A
BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 220317 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1017 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE...AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPNG...AND HAVE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHER THAN UPDATING FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IN ON TRACK...WITH A
BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE FOR TUESDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN...WHILE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SEEN WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AN UPPER
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
DEVELOP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ALL OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL START SE TO
SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...WHILE GUSTY AND ELEVATED NEAR STORMS. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED ON TUESDAY AND BE NW TO N AT 10 TO 20 MPH. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BRING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM TODAY.

ABOVE THE SURFACE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
THE FRONT AND A BIT OF RIDGING WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT...AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL RETURN.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
A STALLED FRONT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TENDED
TO PUSH THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE FINALLY
STALLING. IF THIS PANS OUT...FRONT MAY ACTUALLY STALL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WHILE I
ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD AND WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 212328 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN...WHILE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE SEEN WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AN UPPER
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
DEVELOP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ALL OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL START SE TO
SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH...WHILE GUSTY AND ELEVATED NEAR STORMS. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED ON TUESDAY AND BE NW TO N AT 10 TO 20 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BRING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM TODAY.

ABOVE THE SURFACE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
THE FRONT AND A BIT OF RIDGING WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT...AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
A STALLED FRONT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TENDED
TO PUSH THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE FINALLY
STALLING. IF THIS PANS OUT...FRONT MAY ACTUALLY STALL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WHILE I
ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD AND WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  73  49  75 /  60  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         60  79  52  82 /  70  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       53  71  47  75 /  50   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  78  51  79 /  60  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  77  51  78 /  60  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  78  52  80 /  70  20   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      54  76  47  77 /  60  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  53  73  46  76 /  50   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        56  74  48  77 /  60  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     59  76  52  78 /  60  20   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  77  49  78 /  60  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         55  73  43  72 /  60  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      58  74  48  75 /  60  20   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...225









000
FXUS64 KLZK 211928
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
228 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT...AND ALTHOUGH IT WILL BRING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TOMORROW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
BE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM TODAY.

ABOVE THE SURFACE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
THE FRONT AND A BIT OF RIDGING WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY...MAKING FOR RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT...AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY ACTIVE...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
A STALLED FRONT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TENDED
TO PUSH THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BEFORE FINALLY
STALLING. IF THIS PANS OUT...FRONT MAY ACTUALLY STALL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. THIS WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM WHILE I
ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.

FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS BY THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD AND WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  73  49  75 /  60  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         60  79  52  82 /  70  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       53  71  47  75 /  50   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  78  51  79 /  60  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  77  51  78 /  60  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  78  52  80 /  70  20   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      54  76  47  77 /  60  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  53  73  46  76 /  50   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        56  74  48  77 /  60  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     59  76  52  78 /  60  20   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  77  49  78 /  60  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         55  73  43  72 /  60  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      58  74  48  75 /  60  20   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...225






000
FXUS64 KLZK 211734
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1234 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE STATE WITH
NO LIGHTNING CURRENTLY IN THE STATE. SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE SEEN ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

UPDATE...
JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST TEMP...POPS...AND CLOUD
TRENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SWRN AND
NRN ZONES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB UP A BIT MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO THESE AREAS WITH
PRECIP TO KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. 53

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT INITIALLY...WITH INCREASED
STRATOCU AND ALTOCU INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS EVENING...CEILINGS AND VISBY
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY...THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TUE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. THE
EXITING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL USHER A FRONT INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF AREAS LIKE HARRISON
AND MOUNTAIN HOME BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EXITING SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.

DO NOT EXPECT A NOTABLE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE IT WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HAVE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE ASSOC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS DECENT QPF. WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT IT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FLATTENING UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN OR ALLOW IT
TO STALL OUT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY...PUSHING THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES...BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  57  75  47 /  60  60  10  10
CAMDEN AR         81  60  79  54 /  50  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       72  54  73  47 /  70  60  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  59  78  53 /  60  60  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  79  60  78  52 /  60  60  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     81  61  78  53 /  50  60  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      76  57  78  50 /  60  60  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  54  74  47 /  60  60  10  10
NEWPORT AR        76  58  75  48 /  60  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     80  60  77  52 /  50  60  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  57  78  50 /  60  60  10  10
SEARCY AR         76  58  74  46 /  60  60  10  10
STUTTGART AR      78  60  75  51 /  50  60  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...225







000
FXUS64 KLZK 211548
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1048 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST TEMP...POPS...AND CLOUD
TRENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SWRN AND
NRN ZONES HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB UP A BIT MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO THESE AREAS WITH
PRECIP TO KEEP THINGS IN CHECK. 53

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT INITIALLY...WITH INCREASED
STRATOCU AND ALTOCU INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS EVENING...CEILINGS AND VISBY
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY...THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TUE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. THE
EXITING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL USHER A FRONT INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF AREAS LIKE HARRISON
AND MOUNTAIN HOME BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EXITING SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.

DO NOT EXPECT A NOTABLE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE IT WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HAVE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE ASSOC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS DECENT QPF. WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT IT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FLATTENING UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN OR ALLOW IT
TO STALL OUT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY...PUSHING THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES...BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  57  75  47 /  60  60  10  10
CAMDEN AR         81  60  79  54 /  50  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       72  54  73  47 /  70  60  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  59  78  53 /  60  60  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  79  60  78  52 /  60  60  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     81  61  78  53 /  50  60  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      76  57  78  50 /  60  60  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  54  74  47 /  60  60  10  10
NEWPORT AR        76  58  75  48 /  60  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     80  60  77  52 /  50  60  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  57  78  50 /  60  60  10  10
SEARCY AR         76  58  74  46 /  60  60  10  10
STUTTGART AR      78  60  75  51 /  50  60  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KLZK 211122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
622 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT INITIALLY...WITH INCREASED
STRATOCU AND ALTOCU INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS EVENING...CEILINGS AND VISBY
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY 12Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY...THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TUE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. THE
EXITING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL USHER A FRONT INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF AREAS LIKE HARRISON
AND MOUNTAIN HOME BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EXITING SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.

DO NOT EXPECT A NOTABLE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE IT WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HAVE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE ASSOC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS DECENT QPF. WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT IT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FLATTENING UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN OR ALLOW IT
TO STALL OUT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY...PUSHING THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES...BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 210730
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY MOST EVERYWHERE TODAY...THEN
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO TUE MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. THE
EXITING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL USHER A FRONT INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF AREAS LIKE HARRISON
AND MOUNTAIN HOME BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EXITING SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING.

DO NOT EXPECT A NOTABLE COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE IT WILL
USHER IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S THROUGH THE REMAINDER SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HAVE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LIMITED THEM TO ABOUT 30 PERCENT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THE ASSOC FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THU...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS DECENT QPF. WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT FUTURE MODEL
RUNS HAVE TO SAY ABOUT IT.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. FLATTENING UPPER FLOW WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN OR ALLOW IT
TO STALL OUT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
BY SATURDAY...PUSHING THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH.

A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES...BUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  57  75  47 /  60  60  10  10
CAMDEN AR         78  60  79  54 /  50  60  20  10
HARRISON AR       71  54  73  47 /  70  60  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    76  59  78  53 /  60  60  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  60  78  52 /  60  60  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  61  78  53 /  50  60  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      75  57  78  50 /  60  60  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  54  74  47 /  60  60  10  10
NEWPORT AR        76  58  75  48 /  60  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     77  60  77  52 /  50  60  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  57  78  50 /  60  60  10  10
SEARCY AR         75  58  74  46 /  60  60  10  10
STUTTGART AR      76  60  75  51 /  50  60  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...57








000
FXUS64 KLZK 210504 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1204 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT INITIALLY...WITH INCREASED
STRATOCU AND ALTOCU INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING...
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY EVENING...
CEILINGS AND VISBY WILL BE RESTRICTED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITHIN
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. TAFS OUT AT 0520Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...BUT WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS STILL HIGH...RAINFALL IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET.
RAIN WILL BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THE RAINFALL REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
REDUCED POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF...WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN
OCCURING MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210247 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
947 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...BUT WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS STILL HIGH...RAINFALL IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET.
RAIN WILL BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
THE RAINFALL REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.
REDUCED POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF...WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN
OCCURING MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER A BIT
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER...WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AR TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. USED VCSH OR
VCTS IN TAF FORECASTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO REACH OTHER TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE SE TO S AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE SEEN AT TAF SITES AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
START SE TO S...THEN BECOME MORE S TO SW. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT TO JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN LINGERING TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS AS MOISTURE RETURNS. NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THE STORM SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL GO WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FRONT
LEFT TO HANG UP. A LARGER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE AN
MCS OR TWO AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
ANTICIPATED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 202339 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER A BIT
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDER...WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AR TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. USED VCSH OR
VCTS IN TAF FORECASTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO REACH OTHER TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE SE TO S AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL BE SEEN AT TAF SITES AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
START SE TO S...THEN BECOME MORE S TO SW. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT TO JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN LINGERING TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS AS MOISTURE RETURNS. NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THE STORM SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL GO WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FRONT
LEFT TO HANG UP. A LARGER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE AN
MCS OR TWO AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     58  76  57  74 /  50  60  60  10
CAMDEN AR         59  79  60  78 /  30  60  60  10
HARRISON AR       58  72  55  72 /  50  60  60  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  78  59  77 /  50  60  60  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  78  59  77 /  40  60  60  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  79  60  77 /  30  60  60  20
MOUNT IDA AR      60  77  58  76 /  50  60  60  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  73  55  73 /  50  60  60  10
NEWPORT AR        57  77  58  75 /  50  60  60  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  79  60  77 /  30  60  60  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  75  57  76 /  50  60  60  10
SEARCY AR         58  78  57  75 /  50  60  60  10
STUTTGART AR      58  79  59  77 /  40  60  60  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46










000
FXUS64 KLZK 201952
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
252 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT TO JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN LINGERING TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER ARKANSAS AS MOISTURE RETURNS. NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THE STORM SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL GO WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FRONT
LEFT TO HANG UP. A LARGER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST NEXT
WEEKEND...AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE WE ARE SEVERAL DAYS OUT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE AN
MCS OR TWO AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS SOME SEVERE WEATHER.
WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     58  76  57  74 /  50  60  60  10
CAMDEN AR         59  79  60  78 /  30  60  60  10
HARRISON AR       58  72  55  72 /  50  60  60  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  78  59  77 /  50  60  60  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  78  59  77 /  40  60  60  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  79  60  77 /  30  60  60  20
MOUNT IDA AR      60  77  58  76 /  50  60  60  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  73  55  73 /  50  60  60  10
NEWPORT AR        57  77  58  75 /  50  60  60  10
PINE BLUFF AR     59  79  60  77 /  30  60  60  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  75  57  76 /  50  60  60  10
SEARCY AR         58  78  57  75 /  50  60  60  10
STUTTGART AR      58  79  59  77 /  40  60  60  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 201929 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT...WITH MOST CEILINGS BETWEEN 5K AND 10K
FEET. SOME LOWER CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING NORTH OF KLIT.

AS CLOUDS INCREASE...SO WILL RAIN CHANCES. RAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY
TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION MORE SPOTTY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 6 TO
12 MPH IN MOST AREAS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7
MPH...AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY MORNING. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER OKLAHOMA AND THESE
WILL BE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING MORE QUICKLY TODAY AND SOME TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 70S. INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES TO 80 IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN THE WEST WILL
SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN
OKLAHOMA BUT NOTHING IN ARKANSAS SO FAR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IS TRANSITING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
PAC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE MAY SNEAK INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
IN EARNEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE NRN BRANCH WAVE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA TOWARDS ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY CLEAR THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH...FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS DESCRIBED
BELOW.

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NECESSARY IN THAT DEPARTMENT. RAIN CHANCES LOOKED GOOD AS
WELL BUT DID SLOW DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS JUST A TAD TO COME IN
LINE WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  56  75  56 /   0  20  60  60
CAMDEN AR         80  58  78  59 /  10  30  50  60
HARRISON AR       77  56  71  54 /  10  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  59  76  58 /  10  40  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  80  58  77  58 /  10  30  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     80  57  77  59 /   0  30  40  60
MOUNT IDA AR      78  58  74  56 /  10  40  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  56  73  54 /  10  30  60  60
NEWPORT AR        77  56  73  57 /   0  20  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     80  58  76  59 /  10  30  50  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  58  74  56 /  10  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         79  56  74  56 /   0  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      80  57  77  58 /   0  20  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLZK 201637
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1137 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER OKLAHOMA AND THESE
WILL BE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING MORE QUICKLY TODAY AND SOME TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 70S. INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES TO 80 IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN THE WEST WILL
SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN
OKLAHOMA BUT NOTHING IN ARKANSAS SO FAR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FROM 6 TO 9
KNOTS. CEILINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IS TRANSITING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
PAC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE MAY SNEAK INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
IN EARNEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE NRN BRANCH WAVE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA TOWARDS ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY CLEAR THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH...FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS DESCRIBED
BELOW.

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NECESSARY IN THAT DEPARTMENT. RAIN CHANCES LOOKED GOOD AS
WELL BUT DID SLOW DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS JUST A TAD TO COME IN
LINE WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  56  75  56 /   0  20  60  60
CAMDEN AR         80  58  78  59 /  10  30  50  60
HARRISON AR       77  56  71  54 /  10  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  59  76  58 /  10  40  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  80  58  77  58 /  10  30  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     80  57  77  59 /   0  30  40  60
MOUNT IDA AR      78  58  74  56 /  10  40  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  56  73  54 /  10  30  60  60
NEWPORT AR        77  56  73  57 /   0  20  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     80  58  76  59 /  10  30  50  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  58  74  56 /  10  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         79  56  74  56 /   0  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      80  57  77  58 /   0  20  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51







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