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000
FXUS64 KLZK 012359
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR KLLQ...AND IS PRODUCING SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA...OR EVEN TSRA THAT WILL REDUCE CIGS AND
VISBYS OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS...MVFR TO
IRF...WILL BE ACROSS KLLQ AND KPBF. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT PROB30S AT ALL OTHER SITES GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FNTL BNDRY RMND NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS SERN AR THIS AFTN. SCTD
SHRA/FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BNDRY THIS AFTN. SHORT RANGE
MODEL DATA INDCS THAT ACTIVITY WL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTN...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPR 40S
AND 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL RMN QUASI-STATIONARY TNGT INTO MON.
A SFC LOW IS FCST TO FORM ALONG THE FNT OVR TX...EVENTUALLY TRACKING
NEWD ALONG THE BNDRY THRU MON. THIS WL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/SCTD TSRA FOR PARTS OF THE FA. THE NAM RMNS THE MODEL OUTLIER
AGAIN TODAY..INDCG A MUCH MORE AREAL COVERAGE/QPF WITH THIS SYS.
WHILE THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...IS MUCH DRIER
REGARDING RAINFALL AMTS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN CHCS TNGT AND MON...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
FCST TRENDS.

DRIER CONDS WL RETURN STARTING MON NIGHT AND CONT ON TUE AS HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS
UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOT
MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS UNTIL SUNDAY.

DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP RETURNS SATURDAY.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$


&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 012359
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR KLLQ...AND IS PRODUCING SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA...OR EVEN TSRA THAT WILL REDUCE CIGS AND
VISBYS OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS...MVFR TO
IRF...WILL BE ACROSS KLLQ AND KPBF. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT PROB30S AT ALL OTHER SITES GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FNTL BNDRY RMND NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS SERN AR THIS AFTN. SCTD
SHRA/FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BNDRY THIS AFTN. SHORT RANGE
MODEL DATA INDCS THAT ACTIVITY WL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTN...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPR 40S
AND 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL RMN QUASI-STATIONARY TNGT INTO MON.
A SFC LOW IS FCST TO FORM ALONG THE FNT OVR TX...EVENTUALLY TRACKING
NEWD ALONG THE BNDRY THRU MON. THIS WL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/SCTD TSRA FOR PARTS OF THE FA. THE NAM RMNS THE MODEL OUTLIER
AGAIN TODAY..INDCG A MUCH MORE AREAL COVERAGE/QPF WITH THIS SYS.
WHILE THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...IS MUCH DRIER
REGARDING RAINFALL AMTS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN CHCS TNGT AND MON...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
FCST TRENDS.

DRIER CONDS WL RETURN STARTING MON NIGHT AND CONT ON TUE AS HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS
UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOT
MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS UNTIL SUNDAY.

DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP RETURNS SATURDAY.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$


&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 012002
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FNTL BNDRY RMND NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS SERN AR THIS AFTN. SCTD
SHRA/FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BNDRY THIS AFTN. SHORT RANGE
MODEL DATA INDCS THAT ACTIVITY WL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTN...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPR 40S
AND 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL RMN QUASI-STATIONARY TNGT INTO MON.
A SFC LOW IS FCST TO FORM ALONG THE FNT OVR TX...EVENTUALLY TRACKING
NEWD ALONG THE BNDRY THRU MON. THIS WL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/SCTD TSRA FOR PARTS OF THE FA. THE NAM RMNS THE MODEL OUTLIER
AGAIN TODAY..INDCG A MUCH MORE AREAL COVERAGE/QPF WITH THIS SYS.
WHILE THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...IS MUCH DRIER
REGARDING RAINFALL AMTS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN CHCS TNGT AND MON...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
FCST TRENDS.

DRIER CONDS WL RETURN STARTING MON NIGHT AND CONT ON TUE AS HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE MID SOUTH.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS
UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOT
MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS UNTIL SUNDAY.

DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP RETURNS SATURDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011828
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
128 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...01/18Z TAF CYCLE

FNTL BNDRY WAS SITUATED ACRS SERN AR AT MIDDAY...WITH MVFR/VFR
CIGS NOTED IN THE VCNTY. SCT SHRA HAVE FORMED IN THE LAST HOUR
ALONG THE BNDRY...WITH VCSH INCLUDED THIS AFTN AT KPBF AND KLLQ.
MODELS STILL AT ODDS REGARDING RAIN CHCS/AREAL COVERAGE LATER TNGT
INTO MON AS LOW PRES FORMS ALONG THE FNT AND TRACKS NEWD. FOCUSED
MVFR/IFR CONDS OVR SERN AR TNGT/MON...CLOSEST TO THE FNT. VFR
CONDS WL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FOR MUCH OF THE PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SURFACE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...LYING FROM BLYTHEVILLE THROUGH
BRINKLEY AND PINE BLUFF AND FINALLY DOWN TO CAMDEN AS OF 4AM.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH...MUCH
OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. SKIES WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. STILL...MOST GUIDANCE
IS GOING WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS
MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE SEEN IN
THE NORTHWEST.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE TO GENERATE RAINFALL INTO CENTRAL AND EVEN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE DRY OUTLIER AND
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40
CORRIDOR...MUCH LESS NORTH OF THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
HOWEVER. BY MONDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

FROM THERE...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RIDGING AROUND HERE...
AND ANOTHER BIG TROUGH OUT WEST. BECAUSE WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY LOCALLY.

EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL THE
PERIOD IS OVER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...WITH READINGS GOING AT/ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011153 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
653 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER KPBF AND KLLQ HAVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN IFR
AND LIFR TERRITORY. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY 15-17Z OR SO THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
COMMENCES. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED AT KPBF AND KLLQ AFTER 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SURFACE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...LYING FROM BLYTHEVILLE THROUGH
BRINKLEY AND PINE BLUFF AND FINALLY DOWN TO CAMDEN AS OF 4AM.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH...MUCH
OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. SKIES WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. STILL...MOST GUIDANCE
IS GOING WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS
MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE SEEN IN
THE NORTHWEST.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE TO GENERATE RAINFALL INTO CENTRAL AND EVEN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE DRY OUTLIER AND
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40
CORRIDOR...MUCH LESS NORTH OF THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
HOWEVER. BY MONDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

FROM THERE...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RIDGING AROUND HERE...
AND ANOTHER BIG TROUGH OUT WEST. BECAUSE WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY LOCALLY.

EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL THE
PERIOD IS OVER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...WITH READINGS GOING AT/ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 011153 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
653 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER KPBF AND KLLQ HAVE FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN IFR
AND LIFR TERRITORY. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR LEVELS FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY 15-17Z OR SO THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
COMMENCES. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND
HAVE VCSH MENTIONED AT KPBF AND KLLQ AFTER 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SURFACE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...LYING FROM BLYTHEVILLE THROUGH
BRINKLEY AND PINE BLUFF AND FINALLY DOWN TO CAMDEN AS OF 4AM.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH...MUCH
OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. SKIES WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. STILL...MOST GUIDANCE
IS GOING WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS
MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE SEEN IN
THE NORTHWEST.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE TO GENERATE RAINFALL INTO CENTRAL AND EVEN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE DRY OUTLIER AND
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40
CORRIDOR...MUCH LESS NORTH OF THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
HOWEVER. BY MONDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

FROM THERE...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RIDGING AROUND HERE...
AND ANOTHER BIG TROUGH OUT WEST. BECAUSE WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY LOCALLY.

EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL THE
PERIOD IS OVER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...WITH READINGS GOING AT/ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 010911
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
411 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SURFACE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...LYING FROM BLYTHEVILLE THROUGH
BRINKLEY AND PINE BLUFF AND FINALLY DOWN TO CAMDEN AS OF 4AM.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH...MUCH
OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. SKIES WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. STILL...MOST GUIDANCE
IS GOING WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS
MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE SEEN IN
THE NORTHWEST.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE TO GENERATE RAINFALL INTO CENTRAL AND EVEN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE DRY OUTLIER AND
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40
CORRIDOR...MUCH LESS NORTH OF THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
HOWEVER. BY MONDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

FROM THERE...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RIDGING AROUND HERE...
AND ANOTHER BIG TROUGH OUT WEST. BECAUSE WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY LOCALLY.

EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL THE
PERIOD IS OVER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...WITH READINGS GOING AT/ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     79  54  67  49 /  10  30  40  10
CAMDEN AR         84  60  73  53 /  10  60  60  10
HARRISON AR       72  49  63  45 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    80  58  70  51 /  10  40  50  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  81  58  69  53 /  10  40  50  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  63  72  54 /  20  50  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      78  56  69  48 /  10  50  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  51  65  47 /   0  30  30  10
NEWPORT AR        79  55  67  51 /  10  30  40  10
PINE BLUFF AR     82  60  70  54 /  10  50  60  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   79  54  70  49 /   0  40  40  10
SEARCY AR         80  56  68  51 /  10  30  50  10
STUTTGART AR      81  59  69  53 /  10  40  60  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 010911
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
411 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A SURFACE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...LYING FROM BLYTHEVILLE THROUGH
BRINKLEY AND PINE BLUFF AND FINALLY DOWN TO CAMDEN AS OF 4AM.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH DAYBREAK. AS SUCH...MUCH
OF THE STATE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. SKIES WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT MAY REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. STILL...MOST GUIDANCE
IS GOING WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS
MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL BE SEEN IN
THE NORTHWEST.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA PER WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY HAVE RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT THOUGH AS THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE TO GENERATE RAINFALL INTO CENTRAL AND EVEN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE DRY OUTLIER AND
SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40
CORRIDOR...MUCH LESS NORTH OF THAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
HOWEVER. BY MONDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. A
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...SO
NO PRECIPITATION IS MENTIONED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

FROM THERE...A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SET UP...WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RIDGING AROUND HERE...
AND ANOTHER BIG TROUGH OUT WEST. BECAUSE WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY DRY LOCALLY.

EVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL WOBBLE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL THE
PERIOD IS OVER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL BE AT/SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...WITH READINGS GOING AT/ABOVE NORMAL
AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     79  54  67  49 /  10  30  40  10
CAMDEN AR         84  60  73  53 /  10  60  60  10
HARRISON AR       72  49  63  45 /   0  30  30  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    80  58  70  51 /  10  40  50  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  81  58  69  53 /  10  40  50  10
MONTICELLO AR     83  63  72  54 /  20  50  70  10
MOUNT IDA AR      78  56  69  48 /  10  50  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  51  65  47 /   0  30  30  10
NEWPORT AR        79  55  67  51 /  10  30  40  10
PINE BLUFF AR     82  60  70  54 /  10  50  60  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   79  54  70  49 /   0  40  40  10
SEARCY AR         80  56  68  51 /  10  30  50  10
STUTTGART AR      81  59  69  53 /  10  40  60  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301957
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

LAST OF THE RAIN MOVED OUT OF ERN AR ARND MIDDAY. CANOPY OF MID AND
HIGH LVL CLOUDS CONTD WORKING EWD OUT OF THE FA THIS AFTN...YIELDING
A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME DESTABILIZATION ACRS
WRN AR THIS AFTN JUST AHEAD OF A CDFNT IN THE VCNTY OF THE AR/OK
BRDR. LATEST DATA SUGGEST SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FNT
OVR THE WRN HALF OF OUR FA.

HI RES MODEL DATA CONTS TO INDC THAT SCTD CONVECTION WL DVLP AHEAD
OF THE FNTL BNDRY LATE THIS AFTN OVR WRN AR. ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET
BETTER ORGANIZED LATE THIS AFTN WL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESP WHERE AFTN
HEATING HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED.

THE ACTIVITY WL THEN TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE CNTRL/ERN PART
OF THE STATE LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
CONVECTION WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE LATER TNGT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL SHIFT JUST SE OF AR BY SUN BEFORE
STALLING OUT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDS IN MOST AREAS...WITH JUST A
SLGT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA OVR FAR SERN AR. RAIN CHCS WL RETURN TO THE FA
FM THE SW SUN NGT AS A NEW STORM SYS FORMS OVR TX...ALONG THE
STALLED FNT. GOOD RAIN CHCS WL CONT ON MON...BUT WL SEE A GRADUAL
DCRS IN POPS FM THE NW MON AFTN AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS E OF AR. HIGH
PRES WL BRING DRIER CONDS TO THE REGION STARTING MON NGT.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OVERALL IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS UNTIL THIS
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301814
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
114 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...30/18Z TAF CYCLE

BACK EDGE OF MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OUT OF
CNTRL AND ERN AR EARLY THIS AFTN. WL CONT TO SEE SCT-BKN CU FIELD
DVLP THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE CDFNT THAT LOCATED JUST W OF AR ATTM.
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO INDC THAT SCT SHRA/TSRA WL FORM LATER
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE FNT OVR WRN AR...THEN TRANSLATE SLOLY EWD
THRU THIS EVENING. CONTD WITH VCTS AT MOST FCST SITES FOR NOW AS
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT TEMPO GROUPS ATTM. CDFNT
WL SLOLY WORK THRU MOST OF THE FA LATE TNGT AND SUN...WITH SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND PTCHY BR FORMING LATE. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

STILL HAVE ONGOING MODERATE TO...AT TIMES...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS STEADILY MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...LYING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HARRISON THROUGH
RUSSELLVILLE AND DOWN TO ALMOST MT IDA AS OF 4AM. EXPECT THIS TO
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY ROUGHLY 10AM OR SO. BEHIND THIS
PRECIP SHIELD...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FAIRLY WELL...WITH
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE RECOVERY OF
TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
MORE SHOWERS...HOWEVER I EXPECT THESE TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
ABOUT THE AREA. HAVE SOME 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE QUITE A BIT WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...LEADING
DO A VERY NICE DAY COME SUNDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRIER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST
MONDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW MUCH
RAIN THIS WILL PRODUCE IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH
IT WILL MAKE IT. AS SUCH...ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. ZONAL UPPER FLOW LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL THEN AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY BY MIDWEEK
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...BUT THE MOST NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE LONG
TERM WILL BE THE COOLDOWN EXPECTED LATE WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE IS
YIELDING TEMPERATURES 5-7 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE AT ANY TIME OF YEAR
MUCH LESS EARLY MAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLZK 301223 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
725 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR IN MOST PLACES
BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE WILL EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH ISOLATED STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 MPH TODAY...WITH GUSTS
FROM 16 TO 24 MPH IN PLACES THIS MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

STILL HAVE ONGOING MODERATE TO...AT TIMES...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS STEADILY MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...LYING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HARRISON THROUGH
RUSSELLVILLE AND DOWN TO ALMOST MT IDA AS OF 4AM. EXPECT THIS TO
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY ROUGHLY 10AM OR SO. BEHIND THIS
PRECIP SHIELD...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FAIRLY WELL...WITH
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE RECOVERY OF
TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
MORE SHOWERS...HOWEVER I EXPECT THESE TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
ABOUT THE AREA. HAVE SOME 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE QUITE A BIT WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...LEADING
DO A VERY NICE DAY COME SUNDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRIER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST
MONDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW MUCH
RAIN THIS WILL PRODUCE IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH
IT WILL MAKE IT. AS SUCH...ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. ZONAL UPPER FLOW LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL THEN AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY BY MIDWEEK
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...BUT THE MOST NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE LONG
TERM WILL BE THE COOLDOWN EXPECTED LATE WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE IS
YIELDING TEMPERATURES 5-7 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE AT ANY TIME OF YEAR
MUCH LESS EARLY MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  59  78  54 /  60  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         79  63  83  60 /  60  40  10  40
HARRISON AR       76  53  72  48 /  30  20   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  60  80  58 /  50  30   0  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  81  57 /  60  30  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     78  66  82  61 /  70  40  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      76  57  78  56 /  40  20   0  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  55  74  50 /  40  20   0  10
NEWPORT AR        76  61  79  54 /  70  40  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     77  64  82  59 /  70  40  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  58  78  55 /  40  20   0  20
SEARCY AR         75  61  80  56 /  60  40  10  10
STUTTGART AR      77  65  81  58 /  70  40  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300914
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
414 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

STILL HAVE ONGOING MODERATE TO...AT TIMES...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS STEADILY MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...LYING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM HARRISON THROUGH
RUSSELLVILLE AND DOWN TO ALMOST MT IDA AS OF 4AM. EXPECT THIS TO
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY ROUGHLY 10AM OR SO. BEHIND THIS
PRECIP SHIELD...THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND FAIRLY WELL...WITH
HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE RECOVERY OF
TEMPS COUPLED WITH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME
MORE SHOWERS...HOWEVER I EXPECT THESE TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED
ABOUT THE AREA. HAVE SOME 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE QUITE A BIT WHEN
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...LEADING
DO A VERY NICE DAY COME SUNDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH DRIER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 70 IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST
MONDAY...BUT THERE IS STILL NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW MUCH
RAIN THIS WILL PRODUCE IN OUR FORECAST AREA AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH
IT WILL MAKE IT. AS SUCH...ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. ZONAL UPPER FLOW LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL THEN AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY BY MIDWEEK
AS A SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...BUT THE MOST NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE LONG
TERM WILL BE THE COOLDOWN EXPECTED LATE WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE IS
YIELDING TEMPERATURES 5-7 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS IMPRESSIVE AT ANY TIME OF YEAR
MUCH LESS EARLY MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  59  78  54 /  60  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         79  63  83  60 /  60  40  10  40
HARRISON AR       76  53  72  48 /  30  20   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  60  80  58 /  50  30   0  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  62  81  57 /  60  30  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     78  66  82  61 /  70  40  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      76  57  78  56 /  40  20   0  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  76  55  74  50 /  40  20   0  10
NEWPORT AR        76  61  79  54 /  70  40  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     77  64  82  59 /  70  40  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  58  78  55 /  40  20   0  20
SEARCY AR         75  61  80  56 /  60  40  10  10
STUTTGART AR      77  65  81  58 /  70  40  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300517 AAD
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR AS WELL AS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WITH CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO A TIME NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG...WILL ALSO BE ACROSS AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER SW PARTS OF AR. WINDS WILL MOSTLY
BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. FOR SATURDAY MORNING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO START IFR AND MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THROUGH THE DAY GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TO VFR
WITH CEILINGS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LESSENING SEVERE THREAT AND
REMOVAL OF TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT THE GOING THOUGHT IS THAT
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS HAVE LIKELY STABILIZED THINGS
ENOUGH THAT SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY TORNADIC STORMS...WILL BE
LESS OF A CONCERN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
PLACE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TRENDS ARE AS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SEEN TODAY...WHILE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY IS THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD INTO AR AND DEVELOPING THE STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DRIFTED A BIT SOUTH...KEEPING THE WARMEST AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER N
LA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND FORECAST INDICATES THIS. SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER PARTS OF AR...WHILE THE SW WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
THREAT. WILL FINE TUNE ELEMENTS AS THE EVENING GOES...BUT AT THIS
TIME NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE UPPER
LOW FROM MOVING EAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE FRONT EXITING
THE EAST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM WITH A FRONT SLOWING DOWN
AS IT APPROACHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300334 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1034 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LESSENING SEVERE THREAT AND
REMOVAL OF TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT THE GOING THOUGHT IS THAT
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS HAVE LIKELY STABILIZED THINGS
ENOUGH THAT SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY TORNADIC STORMS...WILL BE
LESS OF A CONCERN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
PLACE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TRENDS ARE AS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SEEN TODAY...WHILE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY IS THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD INTO AR AND DEVELOPING THE STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DRIFTED A BIT SOUTH...KEEPING THE WARMEST AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER N
LA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND FORECAST INDICATES THIS. SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER PARTS OF AR...WHILE THE SW WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
THREAT. WILL FINE TUNE ELEMENTS AS THE EVENING GOES...BUT AT THIS
TIME NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE
SEEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO A TIME NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG...WILL ALSO BE ACROSS AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5
TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE UPPER
LOW FROM MOVING EAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE FRONT EXITING
THE EAST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM WITH A FRONT SLOWING DOWN
AS IT APPROACHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300334 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1034 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A LESSENING SEVERE THREAT AND
REMOVAL OF TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WHILE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT THE GOING THOUGHT IS THAT
PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS HAVE LIKELY STABILIZED THINGS
ENOUGH THAT SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY TORNADIC STORMS...WILL BE
LESS OF A CONCERN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
PLACE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TRENDS ARE AS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SEEN TODAY...WHILE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY IS THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD INTO AR AND DEVELOPING THE STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DRIFTED A BIT SOUTH...KEEPING THE WARMEST AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER N
LA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND FORECAST INDICATES THIS. SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER PARTS OF AR...WHILE THE SW WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
THREAT. WILL FINE TUNE ELEMENTS AS THE EVENING GOES...BUT AT THIS
TIME NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE
SEEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO A TIME NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG...WILL ALSO BE ACROSS AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5
TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE UPPER
LOW FROM MOVING EAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE FRONT EXITING
THE EAST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM WITH A FRONT SLOWING DOWN
AS IT APPROACHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 300120 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL TRENDS ARE AS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
SEEN TODAY...WHILE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN INITIALLY IS THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN. CURRENTLY THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD INTO AR AND DEVELOPING THE STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
DRIFTED A BIT SOUTH...KEEPING THE WARMEST AND MORE MOIST AIR OVER N
LA. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND FORECAST INDICATES THIS. SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL ALSO
REMAIN OVER PARTS OF AR...WHILE THE SW WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
THREAT. WILL FINE TUNE ELEMENTS AS THE EVENING GOES...BUT AT THIS
TIME NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE
SEEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO A TIME NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG...WILL ALSO BE ACROSS AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5
TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE UPPER
LOW FROM MOVING EAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE FRONT EXITING
THE EAST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM WITH A FRONT SLOWING DOWN
AS IT APPROACHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  78  60  78 /  90  60  40  10
CAMDEN AR         67  80  64  84 /  90  70  40  10
HARRISON AR       61  77  55  73 /  90  40  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  79  61  80 /  90  60  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  80  63  81 /  90  70  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     67  81  66  83 /  90  70  50  20
MOUNT IDA AR      65  78  59  78 /  90  50  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  78  57  75 /  90  50  30  10
NEWPORT AR        64  78  62  80 /  90  70  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     66  80  64  82 /  90  70  50  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  79  59  78 /  90  50  30  10
SEARCY AR         65  78  62  80 /  90  70  40  10
STUTTGART AR      66  79  65  81 /  90  70  50  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 292306 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
605 PM CDT FRI APR 2016

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE
SEEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AR AND DEVELOP SCATTERED TO A TIME NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF FOG...WILL ALSO BE ACROSS AR.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5
TO 15 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE UPPER
LOW FROM MOVING EAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE FRONT EXITING
THE EAST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM WITH A FRONT SLOWING DOWN
AS IT APPROACHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  78  60  78 /  90  60  40  10
CAMDEN AR         67  80  64  84 /  90  70  40  10
HARRISON AR       61  77  55  73 /  90  40  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  79  61  80 /  90  60  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  80  63  81 /  90  70  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     67  81  66  83 /  90  70  50  20
MOUNT IDA AR      65  78  59  78 /  90  50  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  78  57  75 /  90  50  30  10
NEWPORT AR        64  78  62  80 /  90  70  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     66  80  64  82 /  90  70  50  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  79  59  78 /  90  50  30  10
SEARCY AR         65  78  62  80 /  90  70  40  10
STUTTGART AR      66  79  65  81 /  90  70  50  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 292033
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
333 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE UPPER
LOW FROM MOVING EAST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH THE FRONT EXITING
THE EAST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK WE WILL BE TRANISTIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL DRIVE A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE BOURDARY...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM WITH A FRONT SLOWING DOWN
AS IT APPROACHES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  78  60  78 /  90  60  40  10
CAMDEN AR         67  80  64  84 /  90  70  40  10
HARRISON AR       61  77  55  73 /  90  40  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  79  61  80 /  90  60  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  80  63  81 /  90  70  40  10
MONTICELLO AR     67  81  66  83 /  90  70  50  20
MOUNT IDA AR      65  78  59  78 /  90  50  30  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  78  57  75 /  90  50  30  10
NEWPORT AR        64  78  62  80 /  90  70  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     66  80  64  82 /  90  70  50  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  79  59  78 /  90  50  30  10
SEARCY AR         65  78  62  80 /  90  70  40  10
STUTTGART AR      66  79  65  81 /  90  70  50  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291750
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL...EAST AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS. THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TIMES. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE MORE SCATTERED BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AS LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR INTO THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS FROM
16 TO 22 MPH. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS WAS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ARKANSAS
AND LOUISIANA BORDER. PRECIPITATION WAS FIRING DUE TO A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY COME INTO PLAY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.

THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HEAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND
RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY.

THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE PERIOD AS
A REMNANT CLOSE LOW DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OUT WEST BREAKS DOWN. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NEARLY MERIDIONAL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES TO
SPEAK OF WILL BE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
AND TRANSITS ARKANSAS. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RAIN
ARRIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EITHER MIDDAY
MONDAY...OR TUESDAY MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVING ON MONDAY TO GIVE A NOD TO THE CONSISTENTLY FASTER
EURO...BUT HAVE LOWER OVERALL CHANCES THAN THE EURO TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER GFS AND INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODELS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY
ON...BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR PROBABLE BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS AMPLIFY GREATLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

$$

51
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291750
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL...EAST AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS. THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AT TIMES. EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE MORE SCATTERED BY LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

AVIATION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AS LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR INTO THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS FROM
16 TO 22 MPH. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS WAS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ARKANSAS
AND LOUISIANA BORDER. PRECIPITATION WAS FIRING DUE TO A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY COME INTO PLAY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.

THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HEAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND
RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY.

THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE PERIOD AS
A REMNANT CLOSE LOW DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OUT WEST BREAKS DOWN. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NEARLY MERIDIONAL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES TO
SPEAK OF WILL BE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
AND TRANSITS ARKANSAS. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RAIN
ARRIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EITHER MIDDAY
MONDAY...OR TUESDAY MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVING ON MONDAY TO GIVE A NOD TO THE CONSISTENTLY FASTER
EURO...BUT HAVE LOWER OVERALL CHANCES THAN THE EURO TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER GFS AND INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODELS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY
ON...BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR PROBABLE BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS AMPLIFY GREATLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

$$

51
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291205 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
705 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AS LOW CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE A LULL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR INTO THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS FROM
16 TO 22 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS WAS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ARKANSAS
AND LOUISIANA BORDER. PRECIPITATION WAS FIRING DUE TO A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY COME INTO PLAY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.

THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HEAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND
RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY.

THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE PERIOD AS
A REMNANT CLOSE LOW DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OUT WEST BREAKS DOWN. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NEARLY MERIDIONAL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES TO
SPEAK OF WILL BE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
AND TRANSITS ARKANSAS. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RAIN
ARRIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EITHER MIDDAY
MONDAY...OR TUESDAY MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVING ON MONDAY TO GIVE A NOD TO THE CONSISTENTLY FASTER
EURO...BUT HAVE LOWER OVERALL CHANCES THAN THE EURO TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER GFS AND INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODELS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY
ON...BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR PROBABLE BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS AMPLIFY GREATLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  64  77  60 /  80  80  60  40
CAMDEN AR         80  67  79  63 /  80  80  60  40
HARRISON AR       69  61  76  54 /  70  70  40  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  66  78  61 /  90  80  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  65  79  62 /  80  80  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     81  67  80  65 /  70  70  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      76  65  77  58 /  90  80  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  62  77  56 /  70  70  50  30
NEWPORT AR        77  64  77  61 /  80  80  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     80  66  79  64 /  80  80  70  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  65  78  58 /  90  80  50  30
SEARCY AR         77  65  77  61 /  80  80  60  40
STUTTGART AR      79  66  78  64 /  80  80  70  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64





000
FXUS64 KLZK 291123
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
623 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THIS WAS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ARKANSAS
AND LOUISIANA BORDER. PRECIPITATION WAS FIRING DUE TO A LARGE
STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. GOING INTO
TONIGHT...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY COME INTO PLAY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED.

THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WITH TWO TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY MORE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG SOUTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HEAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MORE SPOTTY...AND
RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY.

THE EVENT WILL WIND DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE PERIOD AS
A REMNANT CLOSE LOW DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH OUT WEST BREAKS DOWN. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THIS PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK...WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NEARLY MERIDIONAL
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES TO
SPEAK OF WILL BE ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
AND TRANSITS ARKANSAS. DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RAIN
ARRIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE EITHER MIDDAY
MONDAY...OR TUESDAY MORNING. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE RAIN
CHANCES ARRIVING ON MONDAY TO GIVE A NOD TO THE CONSISTENTLY FASTER
EURO...BUT HAVE LOWER OVERALL CHANCES THAN THE EURO TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER GFS AND INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN AVAILABLE MODELS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN EARLY
ON...BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR PROBABLE BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVELS AMPLIFY GREATLY AND NORTHERLY FLOW
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  64  77  60 /  80  80  60  40
CAMDEN AR         80  67  79  63 /  80  80  60  40
HARRISON AR       69  61  76  54 /  70  70  40  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  66  78  61 /  90  80  60  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  65  79  62 /  80  80  60  40
MONTICELLO AR     81  67  80  65 /  70  70  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      76  65  77  58 /  90  80  50  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  69  62  77  56 /  70  70  50  30
NEWPORT AR        77  64  77  61 /  80  80  60  50
PINE BLUFF AR     80  66  79  64 /  80  80  70  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  65  78  58 /  90  80  50  30
SEARCY AR         77  65  77  61 /  80  80  60  40
STUTTGART AR      79  66  78  64 /  80  80  70  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...64





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