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000
FXUS64 KLZK 262338
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

CURRENTLY SEEING LOW CLOUDS RETREATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. CONTINUE TO THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHILE A
SEPARATE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN THE VICINITY OF KLLQ UNTIL
9Z AND KHOT UNTIL 07Z. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BECOME A CLOSED
LOW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

AT 15Z THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG EXTREME
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTWARD ALONG ROUGHLY THE TX/OK BORDER.
BROAD ASCENT IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SEVERE GRADE CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING. AM NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A TON OF RAINFALL BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS. TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS...BUT MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
LARGELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES AND
EVEN SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING PERIOD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIVES
SOUTH TOWARDS ARKANSAS FROM THE MIDWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL RUN QUITE A WAYS BELOW
NORMAL. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
MID 60S IN THE WARMEST PLACES IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND WILL
STAY IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
ON TUESDAY LOW 60S WILL BE THE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY BUT EVEN THEN ONLY UPPER
60S ARE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...THOUGH NOT BY THE SAME MAGNITUDE. READINGS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE A DRY FORECAST IS STILL IN THE OFFERING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. PERIOD INITIATES WITH A DEPARTING POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TOUGH OVER THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVENANCES.

UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST AS TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE CAN NOT TOTALLY BE EXCLUDED EARLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BUT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STATE
THAN IT WILL BE AT THE ONSET. STILL...IT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP ALL UPPER WAVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OR JUST A TOUCH ABOVE IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  63  49  62 /  10  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         57  66  51  60 /  30  40  70  60
HARRISON AR       47  61  47  60 /  20  20  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  63  50  60 /  30  40  70  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  64  51  61 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     56  67  52  60 /  20  30  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      53  61  49  60 /  40  50  70  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  63  48  61 /  10  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        49  64  50  62 /  10  10  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  65  52  60 /  20  20  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  64  49  61 /  30  30  70  50
SEARCY AR         51  64  50  61 /  10  20  50  60
STUTTGART AR      53  65  51  61 /  20  20  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 262338
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

CURRENTLY SEEING LOW CLOUDS RETREATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. CONTINUE TO THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHILE A
SEPARATE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN THE VICINITY OF KLLQ UNTIL
9Z AND KHOT UNTIL 07Z. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BECOME A CLOSED
LOW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

AT 15Z THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG EXTREME
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTWARD ALONG ROUGHLY THE TX/OK BORDER.
BROAD ASCENT IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SEVERE GRADE CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING. AM NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A TON OF RAINFALL BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS. TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS...BUT MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
LARGELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES AND
EVEN SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING PERIOD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIVES
SOUTH TOWARDS ARKANSAS FROM THE MIDWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL RUN QUITE A WAYS BELOW
NORMAL. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
MID 60S IN THE WARMEST PLACES IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND WILL
STAY IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
ON TUESDAY LOW 60S WILL BE THE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY BUT EVEN THEN ONLY UPPER
60S ARE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...THOUGH NOT BY THE SAME MAGNITUDE. READINGS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE A DRY FORECAST IS STILL IN THE OFFERING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. PERIOD INITIATES WITH A DEPARTING POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TOUGH OVER THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVENANCES.

UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST AS TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE CAN NOT TOTALLY BE EXCLUDED EARLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BUT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STATE
THAN IT WILL BE AT THE ONSET. STILL...IT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP ALL UPPER WAVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OR JUST A TOUCH ABOVE IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  63  49  62 /  10  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         57  66  51  60 /  30  40  70  60
HARRISON AR       47  61  47  60 /  20  20  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  63  50  60 /  30  40  70  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  64  51  61 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     56  67  52  60 /  20  30  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      53  61  49  60 /  40  50  70  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  63  48  61 /  10  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        49  64  50  62 /  10  10  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  65  52  60 /  20  20  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  64  49  61 /  30  30  70  50
SEARCY AR         51  64  50  61 /  10  20  50  60
STUTTGART AR      53  65  51  61 /  20  20  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 261936
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BECOME A CLOSED
LOW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

AT 15Z THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG EXTREME
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTWARD ALONG ROUGHLY THE TX/OK BORDER.
BROAD ASCENT IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SEVERE GRADE CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING. AM NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A TON OF RAINFALL BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS. TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS...BUT MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
LARGELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES AND
EVEN SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING PERIOD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIVES
SOUTH TOWARDS ARKANSAS FROM THE MIDWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL RUN QUITE A WAYS BELOW
NORMAL. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
MID 60S IN THE WARMEST PLACES IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND WILL
STAY IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
ON TUESDAY LOW 60S WILL BE THE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY BUT EVEN THEN ONLY UPPER
60S ARE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...THOUGH NOT BY THE SAME MAGNITUDE. READINGS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE A DRY FORECAST IS STILL IN THE OFFERING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. PERIOD INITIATES WITH A DEPARTING POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TOUGH OVER THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVENANCES.

UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST AS TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE CAN NOT TOTALLY BE EXCLUDED EARLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BUT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STATE
THAN IT WILL BE AT THE ONSET. STILL...IT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP ALL UPPER WAVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OR JUST A TOUCH ABOVE IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  63  49  62 /  10  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         57  66  51  60 /  30  40  70  60
HARRISON AR       47  61  47  60 /  20  20  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  63  50  60 /  30  40  70  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  64  51  61 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     56  67  52  60 /  20  30  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      53  61  49  60 /  40  50  70  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  63  48  61 /  10  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        49  64  50  62 /  10  10  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  65  52  60 /  20  20  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  64  49  61 /  30  30  70  50
SEARCY AR         51  64  50  61 /  10  20  50  60
STUTTGART AR      53  65  51  61 /  20  20  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56










000
FXUS64 KLZK 261936
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
236 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BECOME A CLOSED
LOW LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AND WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR WEATHER ACROSS ARKANSAS
DURING THAT TIME AS WELL.

AT 15Z THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG EXTREME
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND WESTWARD ALONG ROUGHLY THE TX/OK BORDER.
BROAD ASCENT IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SEVERE GRADE CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING. AM NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE A TON OF RAINFALL BUT HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING SO HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS. TONIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS...BUT MONDAY NIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
LARGELY BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDY SKIES AND
EVEN SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING PERIOD AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIVES
SOUTH TOWARDS ARKANSAS FROM THE MIDWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL RUN QUITE A WAYS BELOW
NORMAL. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
MID 60S IN THE WARMEST PLACES IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND WILL
STAY IN THE LOW 60S IN THE NORTH AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
ON TUESDAY LOW 60S WILL BE THE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SOME 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY BUT EVEN THEN ONLY UPPER
60S ARE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...THOUGH NOT BY THE SAME MAGNITUDE. READINGS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE A DRY FORECAST IS STILL IN THE OFFERING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. PERIOD INITIATES WITH A DEPARTING POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TOUGH OVER THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVENANCES.

UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST AS TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE A BRIEF SPRINKLE CAN NOT TOTALLY BE EXCLUDED EARLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ONLY EXPECTING SOME CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BUT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER STATE
THAN IT WILL BE AT THE ONSET. STILL...IT WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP ALL UPPER WAVES TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE OR JUST A TOUCH ABOVE IT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  63  49  62 /  10  10  40  50
CAMDEN AR         57  66  51  60 /  30  40  70  60
HARRISON AR       47  61  47  60 /  20  20  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  63  50  60 /  30  40  70  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  64  51  61 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     56  67  52  60 /  20  30  70  60
MOUNT IDA AR      53  61  49  60 /  40  50  70  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  63  48  61 /  10  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        49  64  50  62 /  10  10  40  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  65  52  60 /  20  20  70  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  64  49  61 /  30  30  70  50
SEARCY AR         51  64  50  61 /  10  20  50  60
STUTTGART AR      53  65  51  61 /  20  20  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56









000
FXUS64 KLZK 261130 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER ALL OF NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
AR. ALSO A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH AR TODAY
AND SWITCH WINDS FROM THE S TO THE NW TO N THEN EVENTUALLY N TO NE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND RAISE TO VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER SW AR.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST...BUT WILL NOT BLOCK MUCH OF THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH
TODAY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF
LATER TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER
JET MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. SOME SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MORE EASTWARD TREND OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA MOVE EAST. THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...BUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...WITH AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS MOVING
OUT OF THE  REGION...AS SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES MORE SE OF AR BUT REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
DAY... WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE START A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE WEEKEND.
&&


.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 261130 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER ALL OF NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
AR. ALSO A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH AR TODAY
AND SWITCH WINDS FROM THE S TO THE NW TO N THEN EVENTUALLY N TO NE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND RAISE TO VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER SW AR.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST...BUT WILL NOT BLOCK MUCH OF THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH
TODAY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF
LATER TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER
JET MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. SOME SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MORE EASTWARD TREND OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA MOVE EAST. THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...BUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...WITH AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS MOVING
OUT OF THE  REGION...AS SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES MORE SE OF AR BUT REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
DAY... WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE START A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE WEEKEND.
&&


.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261130 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER ALL OF NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
AR. ALSO A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH AR TODAY
AND SWITCH WINDS FROM THE S TO THE NW TO N THEN EVENTUALLY N TO NE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND RAISE TO VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER SW AR.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST...BUT WILL NOT BLOCK MUCH OF THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH
TODAY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF
LATER TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER
JET MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. SOME SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MORE EASTWARD TREND OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA MOVE EAST. THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...BUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...WITH AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS MOVING
OUT OF THE  REGION...AS SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES MORE SE OF AR BUT REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
DAY... WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE START A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE WEEKEND.
&&


.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 261130 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER ALL OF NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
AR. ALSO A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH AR TODAY
AND SWITCH WINDS FROM THE S TO THE NW TO N THEN EVENTUALLY N TO NE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AND RAISE TO VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER SW AR.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST...BUT WILL NOT BLOCK MUCH OF THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH
TODAY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF
LATER TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER
JET MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. SOME SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MORE EASTWARD TREND OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA MOVE EAST. THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...BUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...WITH AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS MOVING
OUT OF THE  REGION...AS SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES MORE SE OF AR BUT REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
DAY... WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE START A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE WEEKEND.
&&


.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 260901
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
401 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST...BUT WILL NOT BLOCK MUCH OF THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF
LATER TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER
JET MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. SOME SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MORE EASTWARD TREND OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA MOVE EAST. THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...BUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...WITH AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS MOVING
OUT OF THE  REGION...AS SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES MORE SE OF AR BUT REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
DAY... WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE START A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE WEEKEND.
&&


.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 260901
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
401 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TODAY...BUT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF
COAST...BUT WILL NOT BLOCK MUCH OF THE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF
LATER TODAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK. AS THE UPPER
JET MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. SOME SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MORE EASTWARD TREND OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA MOVE EAST. THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE...BUT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER...WITH AMOUNTS MUCH LESS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS MOVING
OUT OF THE  REGION...AS SURFACE AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES MORE SE OF AR BUT REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE
DAY... WHILE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE START A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN WARM TO
AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE WEEKEND.
&&


.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 260545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS FROM
THE S TO SW TO THE NW TO N THEN EVENTUALLY N TO NE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. ALSO AREAS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS...WITH PATCHY
IFR...WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND REACH MUCH
OF NORTHERN AR EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AR AROUND SUNSET. SUNDAY MORNING THE CEILINGS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY RAISE AND THIN IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...
PROVIDING DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLZK 260545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS FROM
THE S TO SW TO THE NW TO N THEN EVENTUALLY N TO NE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. ALSO AREAS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS...WITH PATCHY
IFR...WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND REACH MUCH
OF NORTHERN AR EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AR AROUND SUNSET. SUNDAY MORNING THE CEILINGS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY RAISE AND THIN IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...
PROVIDING DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLZK 260545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS FROM
THE S TO SW TO THE NW TO N THEN EVENTUALLY N TO NE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. ALSO AREAS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS...WITH PATCHY
IFR...WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND REACH MUCH
OF NORTHERN AR EARLY OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
AR AROUND SUNSET. SUNDAY MORNING THE CEILINGS WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY RAISE AND THIN IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...
PROVIDING DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLZK 252347
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

BREEZY CONDITIONS SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LESSEN
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KHRO AND KBPK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SEEN
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  68  49  64 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         59  84  57  70 /   0  10  30  40
HARRISON AR       53  67  47  63 /  10  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  54  66 /   0  10  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  75  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  81  57  70 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      56  79  54  65 /   0  10  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  68  47  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        56  68  49  65 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  77  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  76  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         57  71  51  66 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  74  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 252347
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

BREEZY CONDITIONS SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LESSEN
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KHRO AND KBPK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SEEN
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  68  49  64 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         59  84  57  70 /   0  10  30  40
HARRISON AR       53  67  47  63 /  10  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  54  66 /   0  10  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  75  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  81  57  70 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      56  79  54  65 /   0  10  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  68  47  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        56  68  49  65 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  77  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  76  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         57  71  51  66 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  74  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 252347
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

BREEZY CONDITIONS SEEN AROUND THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LESSEN
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KHRO AND KBPK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SEEN
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  68  49  64 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         59  84  57  70 /   0  10  30  40
HARRISON AR       53  67  47  63 /  10  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  54  66 /   0  10  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  75  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  81  57  70 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      56  79  54  65 /   0  10  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  68  47  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        56  68  49  65 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  77  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  76  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         57  71  51  66 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  74  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251915
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  68  49  64 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         59  84  57  70 /   0  10  30  40
HARRISON AR       53  67  47  63 /  10  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  54  66 /   0  10  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  75  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  81  57  70 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      56  79  54  65 /   0  10  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  68  47  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        56  68  49  65 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  77  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  76  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         57  71  51  66 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  74  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...226 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251915
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  68  49  64 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         59  84  57  70 /   0  10  30  40
HARRISON AR       53  67  47  63 /  10  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  54  66 /   0  10  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  75  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  81  57  70 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      56  79  54  65 /   0  10  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  68  47  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        56  68  49  65 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  77  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  76  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         57  71  51  66 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  74  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...226 / LONG TERM...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251915
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  68  49  64 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         59  84  57  70 /   0  10  30  40
HARRISON AR       53  67  47  63 /  10  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  54  66 /   0  10  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  75  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  81  57  70 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      56  79  54  65 /   0  10  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  68  47  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        56  68  49  65 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  77  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  76  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         57  71  51  66 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  74  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...226 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251743
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH ALL TERMINALS
BECOMING VFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. MODIFIED
TEMP TRENDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO CHANGES
MADE TO AFTERNOON TEMPS AS CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR TODAY. MVFR
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR IN SE AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  55  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         87  60  85  58 /  10   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       80  53  68  48 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    84  58  80  55 /  10   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  59  76  54 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     86  62  83  58 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      84  57  81  55 /  10   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  54  68  48 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        83  56  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  60  79  56 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  56  78  53 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         84  58  72  52 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  59  75  54 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251743
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH ALL TERMINALS
BECOMING VFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. MODIFIED
TEMP TRENDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO CHANGES
MADE TO AFTERNOON TEMPS AS CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR TODAY. MVFR
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR IN SE AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  55  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         87  60  85  58 /  10   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       80  53  68  48 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    84  58  80  55 /  10   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  59  76  54 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     86  62  83  58 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      84  57  81  55 /  10   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  54  68  48 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        83  56  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  60  79  56 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  56  78  53 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         84  58  72  52 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  59  75  54 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 251531 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1031 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. MODIFIED
TEMP TRENDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO CHANGES
MADE TO AFTERNOON TEMPS AS CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR TODAY. MVFR
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR IN SE AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  55  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         87  60  85  58 /  10   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       80  53  68  48 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    84  58  80  55 /  10   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  59  76  54 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     86  62  83  58 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      84  57  81  55 /  10   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  54  68  48 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        83  56  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  60  79  56 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  56  78  53 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         84  58  72  52 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  59  75  54 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

226







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251531 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1031 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. MODIFIED
TEMP TRENDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO CHANGES
MADE TO AFTERNOON TEMPS AS CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR TODAY. MVFR
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR IN SE AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  55  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         87  60  85  58 /  10   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       80  53  68  48 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    84  58  80  55 /  10   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  59  76  54 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     86  62  83  58 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      84  57  81  55 /  10   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  54  68  48 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        83  56  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  60  79  56 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  56  78  53 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         84  58  72  52 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  59  75  54 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

226






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251531 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1031 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. MODIFIED
TEMP TRENDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO CHANGES
MADE TO AFTERNOON TEMPS AS CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR TODAY. MVFR
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR IN SE AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  55  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         87  60  85  58 /  10   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       80  53  68  48 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    84  58  80  55 /  10   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  59  76  54 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     86  62  83  58 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      84  57  81  55 /  10   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  54  68  48 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        83  56  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  60  79  56 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  56  78  53 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         84  58  72  52 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  59  75  54 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

226







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251531 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1031 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. MODIFIED
TEMP TRENDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT NO CHANGES
MADE TO AFTERNOON TEMPS AS CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR TODAY. MVFR
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR IN SE AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     83  55  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         87  60  85  58 /  10   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       80  53  68  48 /  10  10  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    84  58  80  55 /  10   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  85  59  76  54 /  10  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     86  62  83  58 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      84  57  81  55 /  10   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  81  54  68  48 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        83  56  69  50 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     85  60  79  56 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   84  56  78  53 /  10  10  10  20
SEARCY AR         84  58  72  52 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      84  59  75  54 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

226






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251138 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR TODAY. MVFR
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR IN SE AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 251138 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN AR TODAY. MVFR
WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING BECOMING ALL VFR WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR IN SE AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE SEEN EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL START S TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND GRADUALLY
BECOME SW TO W THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH WITH
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO OVER AR AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
AFTER SUNSET. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 250904
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 250904
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 250904
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 250904
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
404 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME FLOODING. OVERALL...THE SEVERE WEATHER REMAINED JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

THE WARM FRONT FINALLY MOVED NORTH OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
NICELY TODAY INTO THE 80S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS...AND HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS OR NORTHERN
LOUISIANA. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...THEN DRYING OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS TEMPS WARM TO NORMAL VALUES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. EURO MODEL IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS
SO ONLY HAVE LOW CHANCES TO START WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED MORE OF A EURO MODEL TREND THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE A
BIT MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTED A DRYING OUT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 250545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY
OVER SE AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH OVERALL MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN WILL
CLEAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR THROUGH MORNING WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL START SE TO SW AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GRADUALLY BECOME SW THROUGH THE MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO
OVER AR AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. TOWARD
MORNING AND ON SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO W TO NW
AND BECOME 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ALL VFR ON SATURDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND STILL STRUGGLING
TO MAKE ITS ANTICIPATED PUSH INTO ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY
TO MAKE ITS MOVE BUT NOW LIKELY AFTER DARK AND SITUATION COULD BE
ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND HAVE ALSO STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT
BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE SOUTH ARKANSAS WOULD THE AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SEVERE STORMS.

EXPECTING RAINFALL TO END LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME
CHANCES OVER THE EAST FOR EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A STOUT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON
SATURDAY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUXUATE WILDLY WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING ON HOT
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED OM SUNDAY AND COOLER YET ON
MONDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MEX NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLZK 250545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY
OVER SE AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH OVERALL MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN WILL
CLEAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR THROUGH MORNING WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL START SE TO SW AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
GRADUALLY BECOME SW THROUGH THE MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO
OVER AR AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. TOWARD
MORNING AND ON SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO W TO NW
AND BECOME 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ALL VFR ON SATURDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND STILL STRUGGLING
TO MAKE ITS ANTICIPATED PUSH INTO ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY
TO MAKE ITS MOVE BUT NOW LIKELY AFTER DARK AND SITUATION COULD BE
ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND HAVE ALSO STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT
BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE SOUTH ARKANSAS WOULD THE AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SEVERE STORMS.

EXPECTING RAINFALL TO END LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME
CHANCES OVER THE EAST FOR EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A STOUT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON
SATURDAY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUXUATE WILDLY WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING ON HOT
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED OM SUNDAY AND COOLER YET ON
MONDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MEX NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLZK 242340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE LITTLE IF ANY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND STILL STRUGGLING
TO MAKE ITS ANTICIPATED PUSH INTO ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY
TO MAKE ITS MOVE BUT NOW LIKELY AFTER DARK AND SITUATION COULD BE
ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND HAVE ALSO STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT
BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE SOUTH ARKANSAS WOULD THE AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SEVERE STORMS.

EXPECTING RAINFALL TO END LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME
CHANCES OVER THE EAST FOR EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A STOUT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON
SATURDAY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUXUATE WILDLY WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING ON HOT
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED OM SUNDAY AND COOLER YET ON
MONDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MEX NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  84  56  72 /  70  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  88  61  87 /  80  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       59  81  53  70 /  50  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  85  59  84 /  80  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  86  60  79 /  80  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  87  63  85 /  80  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      63  85  58  84 /  80  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  82  54  70 /  60  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        61  84  57  72 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     64  86  61  82 /  80  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  85  57  79 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         61  85  58  75 /  80  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      63  85  60  79 /  80  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 242340
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING BETWEEN IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE LITTLE IF ANY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND STILL STRUGGLING
TO MAKE ITS ANTICIPATED PUSH INTO ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY
TO MAKE ITS MOVE BUT NOW LIKELY AFTER DARK AND SITUATION COULD BE
ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND HAVE ALSO STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT
BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE SOUTH ARKANSAS WOULD THE AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SEVERE STORMS.

EXPECTING RAINFALL TO END LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME
CHANCES OVER THE EAST FOR EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A STOUT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON
SATURDAY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUXUATE WILDLY WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING ON HOT
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED OM SUNDAY AND COOLER YET ON
MONDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MEX NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  84  56  72 /  70  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  88  61  87 /  80  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       59  81  53  70 /  50  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  85  59  84 /  80  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  86  60  79 /  80  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  87  63  85 /  80  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      63  85  58  84 /  80  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  82  54  70 /  60  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        61  84  57  72 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     64  86  61  82 /  80  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  85  57  79 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         61  85  58  75 /  80  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      63  85  60  79 /  80  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 241959
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND STILL STRUGGLING
TO MAKE ITS ANTICIPATED PUSH INTO ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY
TO MAKE ITS MOVE BUT NOW LIKELY AFTER DARK AND SITUATION COULD BE
ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND HAVE ALSO STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT
BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE SOUTH ARKANSAS WOULD THE AREA MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SEVERE STORMS.

EXPECTING RAINFALL TO END LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME
CHANCES OVER THE EAST FOR EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A STOUT SOUTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON
SATURDAY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE BUT NOT UNTIL
SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUXUATE WILDLY WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING ON HOT
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED OM SUNDAY AND COOLER YET ON
MONDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MEX NUMBERS.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  84  56  72 /  70  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         65  88  61  87 /  80  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       59  81  53  70 /  50  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  85  59  84 /  70  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  86  60  79 /  70  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  87  63  85 /  80  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      63  85  58  84 /  70  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  82  54  70 /  60  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        61  84  57  72 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     64  86  61  82 /  80  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  85  57  79 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         61  85  58  75 /  70  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      63  85  60  79 /  70  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56









000
FXUS64 KLZK 241758
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND BE IN MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ARKANSAS UNTIL THIS WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE
WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MVFR TO LIFR BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR FORMING
THIS MORNING AND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AR AT THE START OF THE TAF
TIME...THEN THE REST OF AR THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AREA MOVES FROM
SW AR NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
LATER TODAY...A WARM FRONT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND HELP DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 15 MPH.  (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHEN CONVECTION FIRES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BRING TOO MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND THIS WET BIAS WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
RETURN.

MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST. IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO CONCERNS LISTED ABOVE...DECIDED TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNSET. IF THERE ARE
STORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL...WITH A SMALL TORNADO
CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

AROUND SUNSET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WITH BOTH OF THESE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OVER AR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR AND TO THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF AR ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY STILL
BE OVER AR AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM A BIT...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IS HELD ONTO FOR WEDNESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY MOVE
THIS EAST FASTER. TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND A BIT WARMER INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  84  56  72 /  70  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  89  61  87 /  70  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       60  80  52  70 /  40  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  86  59  84 /  70  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  87  59  79 /  70  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  87  63  85 /  80  30  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      65  86  57  84 /  60  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  82  54  70 /  50  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        63  85  56  72 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  86  60  82 /  80  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  86  57  79 /  50  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         62  85  57  75 /  80  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      64  86  59  79 /  80  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 241758
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND BE IN MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ARKANSAS UNTIL THIS WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE
WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MVFR TO LIFR BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR FORMING
THIS MORNING AND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AR AT THE START OF THE TAF
TIME...THEN THE REST OF AR THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AREA MOVES FROM
SW AR NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
LATER TODAY...A WARM FRONT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND HELP DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 15 MPH.  (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHEN CONVECTION FIRES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BRING TOO MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND THIS WET BIAS WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
RETURN.

MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST. IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO CONCERNS LISTED ABOVE...DECIDED TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNSET. IF THERE ARE
STORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL...WITH A SMALL TORNADO
CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

AROUND SUNSET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WITH BOTH OF THESE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OVER AR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR AND TO THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF AR ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY STILL
BE OVER AR AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM A BIT...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IS HELD ONTO FOR WEDNESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY MOVE
THIS EAST FASTER. TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND A BIT WARMER INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  84  56  72 /  70  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  89  61  87 /  70  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       60  80  52  70 /  40  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  86  59  84 /  70  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  87  59  79 /  70  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  87  63  85 /  80  30  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      65  86  57  84 /  60  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  82  54  70 /  50  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        63  85  56  72 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  86  60  82 /  80  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  86  57  79 /  50  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         62  85  57  75 /  80  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      64  86  59  79 /  80  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 241758
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND BE IN MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ARKANSAS UNTIL THIS WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE
WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MVFR TO LIFR BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR FORMING
THIS MORNING AND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AR AT THE START OF THE TAF
TIME...THEN THE REST OF AR THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AREA MOVES FROM
SW AR NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
LATER TODAY...A WARM FRONT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND HELP DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 15 MPH.  (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHEN CONVECTION FIRES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BRING TOO MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND THIS WET BIAS WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
RETURN.

MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST. IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO CONCERNS LISTED ABOVE...DECIDED TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNSET. IF THERE ARE
STORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL...WITH A SMALL TORNADO
CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

AROUND SUNSET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WITH BOTH OF THESE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OVER AR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR AND TO THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF AR ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY STILL
BE OVER AR AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM A BIT...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IS HELD ONTO FOR WEDNESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY MOVE
THIS EAST FASTER. TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND A BIT WARMER INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  84  56  72 /  70  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  89  61  87 /  70  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       60  80  52  70 /  40  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  86  59  84 /  70  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  87  59  79 /  70  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  87  63  85 /  80  30  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      65  86  57  84 /  60  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  82  54  70 /  50  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        63  85  56  72 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  86  60  82 /  80  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  86  57  79 /  50  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         62  85  57  75 /  80  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      64  86  59  79 /  80  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 241758
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTH LATER TONIGHT...AND BE IN MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ARKANSAS UNTIL THIS WARM FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. EXPECT THE
RAIN TO TAPER OFF AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME WIND SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE
WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MVFR TO LIFR BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR FORMING
THIS MORNING AND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AR AT THE START OF THE TAF
TIME...THEN THE REST OF AR THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AREA MOVES FROM
SW AR NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
LATER TODAY...A WARM FRONT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND HELP DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 15 MPH.  (59)

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHEN CONVECTION FIRES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BRING TOO MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND THIS WET BIAS WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
RETURN.

MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST. IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO CONCERNS LISTED ABOVE...DECIDED TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNSET. IF THERE ARE
STORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL...WITH A SMALL TORNADO
CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

AROUND SUNSET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WITH BOTH OF THESE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OVER AR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR AND TO THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF AR ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY STILL
BE OVER AR AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM A BIT...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IS HELD ONTO FOR WEDNESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY MOVE
THIS EAST FASTER. TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND A BIT WARMER INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  84  56  72 /  70  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  89  61  87 /  70  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       60  80  52  70 /  40  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  86  59  84 /  70  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  87  59  79 /  70  20  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  87  63  85 /  80  30  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      65  86  57  84 /  60  10  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  82  54  70 /  50  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        63  85  56  72 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     66  86  60  82 /  80  20  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  86  57  79 /  50  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         62  85  57  75 /  80  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      64  86  59  79 /  80  20  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 241145 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR FORMING
THIS MORNING AND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AR AT THE START OF THE TAF
TIME...THEN THE REST OF AR THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AREA MOVES FROM
SW AR NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
LATER TODAY...A WARM FRONT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND HELP DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 15 MPH.  (59)

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHEN CONVECTION FIRES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BRING TOO MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND THIS WET BIAS WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
RETURN.

MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST. IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO CONCERNS LISTED ABOVE...DECIDED TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNSET. IF THERE ARE
STORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL...WITH A SMALL TORNADO
CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

AROUND SUNSET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WITH BOTH OF THESE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OVER AR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR AND TO THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF AR ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY STILL
BE OVER AR AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM A BIT...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IS HELD ONTO FOR WEDNESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY MOVE
THIS EAST FASTER. TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND A BIT WARMER INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE REGION.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








000
FXUS64 KLZK 241145 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR FORMING
THIS MORNING AND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AR AT THE START OF THE TAF
TIME...THEN THE REST OF AR THROUGH THE MORNING AS AN AREA MOVES FROM
SW AR NORTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION.
LATER TODAY...A WARM FRONT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND HELP DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 15 MPH.  (59)

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 434 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHEN CONVECTION FIRES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BRING TOO MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND THIS WET BIAS WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
RETURN.

MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST. IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO CONCERNS LISTED ABOVE...DECIDED TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNSET. IF THERE ARE
STORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL...WITH A SMALL TORNADO
CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

AROUND SUNSET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WITH BOTH OF THESE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OVER AR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR AND TO THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF AR ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY STILL
BE OVER AR AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM A BIT...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IS HELD ONTO FOR WEDNESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY MOVE
THIS EAST FASTER. TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND A BIT WARMER INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE REGION.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59









000
FXUS64 KLZK 240934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
434 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHEN CONVECTION FIRES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BRING TOO MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND THIS WET BIAS WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
RETURN.

MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST. IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO CONCERNS LISTED ABOVE...DECIDED TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNSET. IF THERE ARE
STORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL...WITH A SMALL TORNADO
CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

AROUND SUNSET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WITH BOTH OF THESE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OVER AR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR AND TO THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF AR ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY STILL
BE OVER AR AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM A BIT...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IS HELD ONTO FOR WEDNESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY MOVE
THIS EAST FASTER. TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND A BIT WARMER INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE REGION.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59






000
FXUS64 KLZK 240934
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
434 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WARM FRONT ACROSS TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY...AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY
BECOMES...AND THUS HOW WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WHEN CONVECTION FIRES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BRING TOO MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...AND THIS WET BIAS WILL ALSO AFFECT INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
RETURN.

MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND EVENTUALLY FORM INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AND MOVE EAST. IF ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT DUE TO CONCERNS LISTED ABOVE...DECIDED TO BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNSET. IF THERE ARE
STORMS...THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL...WITH A SMALL TORNADO
CONCERN WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS.

AROUND SUNSET...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN WITH BOTH OF THESE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START WITH CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA
AS A SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OVER AR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR AND TO THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS FORECAST TO
BE EAST OF AR ON WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY STILL
BE OVER AR AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS THE SURFACE SYSTEM A BIT...AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE IS HELD ONTO FOR WEDNESDAY. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY MOVE
THIS EAST FASTER. TEMPS REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. DRY
AND A BIT WARMER INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT
OF THE REGION.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59





000
FXUS64 KLZK 240548 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY
PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS IN SPOTS. TOWARD MORNING A WARM FRONT AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO AR FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND HELP
DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...VFR CEILINGS
WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF MVFR ALONG WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BECOME E TO SE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE SURFACE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH ARKANSAS IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS
LOUISIANA...AND THIS FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS
TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS THE
BOUNDARY TO BE ORIENTED FROM WEST CENTRAL AR...TO JUST SOUTH OF
LITTLE ROCK...THRU PINE BLUFF...TO SE AR BY MIDDAY. THIS ROUGHLY
CORRESPONDS TO THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE LATEST SPC
BULLETIN.

THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL STARTS TO FIRE
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BY AROUND 1-2 PM IN WESTERN
AR...WITH THESE STORMS REACHING CENTRAL AR BY AROUND 4-5 PM.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH LI VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE -3 TO -4 RANGE...AND CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY AT 1000 J/KG OR LESS. WITH A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
THERE IS A BIT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT ABOVE
THAT ITS MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR.

I AM THINKING THAT HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF A STORM GROWS SUBSTANTIALLY LARGE
ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME SEVERE WINDS AS WELL. WHILE THERE
SHOULD NOT BE A LARGE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

BEYOND FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE A NICE WARM UP...WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY ANOTHER BOUNDARY
WILL BE APPROACHING AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WEATHER DURING THE LONG TERM WILL HINGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL START THE PERIOD CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER. THAT IS TO SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH AS THE BEHAVIOR OF SUCH FEATURES IS TYPICALLY NOT WELL MODELED
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. MODELS OFTEN TIMES MOVE CLOSED UPPER LOWS
EASTWARD TOO QUICKLY.

THAT BEING SAID...MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT LATEST TIMING...TEMPERATURE...AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS SEEN
IN THE MORNING MODEL RUNS. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY
SITUATED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER...WITH CURRENT
FORECASTS SHOWING IT OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION BY TUE MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST INTO ARKANSAS. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHICH IS HEAVY-HANDED TOWARDS THE EURO BUT ALSO
HAS SOME ASPECTS OF THE GFS FORECAST IN THERE AS WELL. THE EURO
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHEREAS THE GFS
HAS A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD. A BLENDED APPROACH SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR NOW UNTIL CERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW
INCREASES...AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER NRN STREAM DIVING
SOUTH INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST OF
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.


.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








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