000
FXUS64 KLZK 191107 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
607 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IMPACTING SOME TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR
TO AS LOW AS LIFR VIS OBSERVED. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING THIS SUN. BREEZY SRLY WINDS WILL
THEN BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HRS. BY THE OVERNIGHT HRS...EXPECT THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE
SOME...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE. HRO MAY SEE SOME
SHRA/TSRA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS PRECIP ACTIVITY FORMS WELL TO THE
WEST AND MOVES TOWARDS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY MON
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING MOVED
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE ARKANSAS
BORDER. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IS ALSO
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST...AND THINK THAT STORMS WILL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
MOVING EAST INTO ARKANSAS...BUT THINK THAT CAP WILL HOLD AND KEEP
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UNTIL
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION CHANCES...AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WITH SHEAR PRESENT DUE TO JET
OVER THE AREA...SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. THE CAVEAT IN ALL OF THIS
WILL BE INTERACTIONS WITH ANY REMAINING BOUNDARIES WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTIONING SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND HOW
QUICKLY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OVER
TIME...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE AS THE RIDGING INTENSIFIES. WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE
AREA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FORECAST FOR MUCH THU AND FRI...THEN DECREASING POPS FOR SAT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MUGGY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 88 68 84 69 / 10 10 10 40
CAMDEN AR 89 72 90 71 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 89 68 82 67 / 10 30 20 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 88 71 88 72 / 10 10 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 70 88 70 / 10 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 90 72 90 71 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 88 71 87 71 / 10 10 10 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 89 69 82 66 / 10 20 20 60
NEWPORT AR 89 69 86 70 / 10 10 10 30
PINE BLUFF AR 89 71 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 68 85 69 / 10 10 20 40
SEARCY AR 88 69 86 70 / 10 10 10 30
STUTTGART AR 88 70 88 70 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
000
FXUS64 KLZK 190910
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
410 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING MOVED
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BUT DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE ARKANSAS
BORDER. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IS ALSO
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST...AND THINK THAT STORMS WILL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG IN THE GRIDS...WITH SKIES GRADUALLY BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
MOVING EAST INTO ARKANSAS...BUT THINK THAT CAP WILL HOLD AND KEEP
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...UNTIL
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT AND HELPS PUSH THE FRONT INTO
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST AREAS MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CONVECTION CHANCES...AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WITH SHEAR PRESENT DUE TO JET
OVER THE AREA...SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR. THE CAVEAT IN ALL OF THIS
WILL BE INTERACTIONS WITH ANY REMAINING BOUNDARIES WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP MENTIONING SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...AND HOW
QUICKLY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
LONG TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OVER
TIME...WITH THE COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS NERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE AS THE RIDGING INTENSIFIES. WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE
AREA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FORECAST FOR MUCH THU AND FRI...THEN DECREASING POPS FOR SAT AS
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MUGGY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...62
000
FXUS64 KLZK 190508 AAB
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1208 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH OVER THE STATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HRS.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR TO IFR CIGS AS WELL DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE MORNING ON SUN...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BREEZY SRLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN FOR
ALL SITES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. KEEP
MENTION OF PRECIP OR STORM OUT OF FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM...AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. MINOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN SPOTS...WILL BE SEEN.
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED...BUT MORNING STRATUS HAS HELD IN SPOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF MIXING AND ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION
OVER AR. POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH
CLOUDS THINNING SOUTH OF IT...WHILE NORTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...BUT MAY
TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER SYSTEM OUT WEST SLOWS DUE TO
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER NE TO E AR EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELD BACK DUE TO CLOUDS AND INVERSION.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE WITH 12Z KLZK
SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES WHILE DEW
POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EAST TODAY AND IS
CENTERED ALONG THE AR/OK/KS/MO STATE LINES.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN FIRST PERIOD DUE TO
CAP AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ANY DEVELOP LOW. PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WITH MILD TEMPS AND PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN
SPOTS. ON SUNDAY...A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND MUGGY DAY. MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE OVER AR...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL KEEP THE CWA DAY...BUT INDICATE TREND
OVER NW AR. SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...HAS
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN AR...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES A BIT MORE EAST. POP TREND FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE OVER NW AR
INDICATED IN FORECAST. ON MONDAY...AGAIN MUCH OF THE UPPER LIFT
REMAINS OVER WEST TO NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST HAS THIS
INDICATED. MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE MORE EAST AND ROTATE MUCH STRONG UPPER LIFT INTO AR. THE
BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT AR WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER NW AREAS...TUESDAY OVER WEST TO CENTRAL...
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY OVER ALL OF THE STATE...THEN FINALLY
PUSHING EAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL SEVERE STORM THREATS
WILL MATERIALIZE AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AR...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS FOR
TEMPS...AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WILL BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL MEANDER AROUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND STALL
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 85 68 82 / 10 20 50 60
CAMDEN AR 70 87 70 87 / 10 10 20 40
HARRISON AR 67 83 66 78 / 30 30 60 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 86 70 83 / 10 20 30 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 85 70 83 / 10 10 30 50
MONTICELLO AR 71 86 70 85 / 10 10 20 40
MOUNT IDA AR 70 85 69 82 / 10 20 30 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 85 66 80 / 30 30 60 70
NEWPORT AR 71 85 68 83 / 10 20 40 60
PINE BLUFF AR 70 86 70 84 / 10 10 20 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 85 69 81 / 20 20 60 60
SEARCY AR 69 86 67 83 / 10 20 30 50
STUTTGART AR 70 85 71 84 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
000
FXUS64 KLZK 182355 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE
BEING A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO THE STATE.
KLIT...KHOT...KPBF...ETC...WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH AS MOIST AN AIR MASS IN PLACE...STILL
THINK MVFR VSBY AND CIGS WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THESE SITES BUT DO
NOT THINK THAT EITHER OBSERVATION WILL BE AS LOW AS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE 5SM VSBY WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF BKN-OVC015
CIGS STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. UP NORTH IT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
KNOW WHAT WILL OCCUR. HAVE VSBY DROPPING TO 3SM UP NORTH. ADDED
SOME FEW010 CLOUDS IN DURING THE 3SM VSBY PERIODS. GIVEN BOTH KHRO
AND KBPK ARE REPORTING 5SM AND HZ AS OF 23Z...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF VSBY DROPS TO AROUND 1SM AND THERE ARE LEGITIMATE
CIGS OF 800-1000 FT AGL AFTER 10Z. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON TAKING
TAFS IN TOO PESSIMISTIC A DIRECTION FOR THE TIME BEING TO SEE WHAT
OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON CU SCT035-045
WILL BE SEEN AT ALL SITES TOMORROW...AND WINDS SHOULD PICK UP TO
AROUND 19012G22KT STATEWIDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM...AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. MINOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN SPOTS...WILL BE SEEN.
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED...BUT MORNING STRATUS HAS HELD IN SPOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF MIXING AND ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION
OVER AR. POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH
CLOUDS THINNING SOUTH OF IT...WHILE NORTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...BUT MAY
TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER SYSTEM OUT WEST SLOWS DUE TO
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER NE TO E AR EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELD BACK DUE TO CLOUDS AND INVERSION.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE WITH 12Z KLZK
SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES WHILE DEW
POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EAST TODAY AND IS
CENTERED ALONG THE AR/OK/KS/MO STATE LINES.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN FIRST PERIOD DUE TO
CAP AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ANY DEVELOP LOW. PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WITH MILD TEMPS AND PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN
SPOTS. ON SUNDAY...A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND MUGGY DAY. MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE OVER AR...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL KEEP THE CWA DAY...BUT INDICATE TREND
OVER NW AR. SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...HAS
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN AR...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES A BIT MORE EAST. POP TREND FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE OVER NW AR
INDICATED IN FORECAST. ON MONDAY...AGAIN MUCH OF THE UPPER LIFT
REMAINS OVER WEST TO NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST HAS THIS
INDICATED. MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE MORE EAST AND ROTATE MUCH STRONG UPPER LIFT INTO AR. THE
BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT AR WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER NW AREAS...TUESDAY OVER WEST TO CENTRAL...
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY OVER ALL OF THE STATE...THEN FINALLY
PUSHING EAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL SEVERE STORM THREATS
WILL MATERIALIZE AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AR...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS FOR
TEMPS...AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WILL BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL MEANDER AROUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND STALL
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 81 69 88 69 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 92 70 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 83 68 87 67 / 10 10 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 71 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 71 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 88 70 89 71 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 87 70 87 70 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 69 89 67 / 20 10 10 30
NEWPORT AR 84 70 89 71 / 20 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 87 71 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 66 89 69 / 10 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 82 69 86 69 / 20 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 88 70 88 70 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...64
000
FXUS64 KLZK 181937
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
237 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONG SYSTEM...AND SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. MINOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN SPOTS...WILL BE SEEN.
MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED...BUT MORNING STRATUS HAS HELD IN SPOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF MIXING AND ATMOSPHERIC INVERSION
OVER AR. POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH
CLOUDS THINNING SOUTH OF IT...WHILE NORTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...BUT MAY
TAKE LONGER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER SYSTEM OUT WEST SLOWS DUE TO
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER NE TO E AR EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELD BACK DUE TO CLOUDS AND INVERSION.
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE WITH 12Z KLZK
SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES WHILE DEW
POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE STATE.
THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS EAST TODAY AND IS
CENTERED ALONG THE AR/OK/KS/MO STATE LINES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN FIRST PERIOD DUE TO
CAP AND UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ANY DEVELOP LOW. PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WITH MILD TEMPS AND PATCHY FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE IN
SPOTS. ON SUNDAY...A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND MUGGY DAY. MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO MOVE OVER AR...ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN AREAS...AND WILL KEEP THE CWA DAY...BUT INDICATE TREND
OVER NW AR. SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...HAS
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER WESTERN AR...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES A BIT MORE EAST. POP TREND FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE OVER NW AR
INDICATED IN FORECAST. ON MONDAY...AGAIN MUCH OF THE UPPER LIFT
REMAINS OVER WEST TO NORTHERN AR...AND FORECAST HAS THIS
INDICATED. MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE MORE EAST AND ROTATE MUCH STRONG UPPER LIFT INTO AR. THE
BETTER CHANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT AR WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT OVER NW AREAS...TUESDAY OVER WEST TO CENTRAL...
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY OVER ALL OF THE STATE...THEN FINALLY
PUSHING EAST LATER ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL SEVERE STORM THREATS
WILL MATERIALIZE AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AR...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS FOR
TEMPS...AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WILL BE EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL MEANDER AROUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY AND STALL
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 88 69 85 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 70 89 70 87 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 68 87 67 83 / 10 10 30 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 89 70 86 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 89 70 85 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 70 89 71 86 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 70 87 70 86 / 10 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 89 67 85 / 10 10 30 30
NEWPORT AR 70 89 71 85 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 71 88 70 86 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 89 69 85 / 10 10 20 20
SEARCY AR 69 86 69 86 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 70 88 70 85 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...61 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 181801
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
101 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE AREA PROVIDING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER
ARKANSAS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
BENEATH AN INVERSION AT 6000 FEET. FOG IS JUST DISSIPATING AND LOW
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS GRADUALLY THINNED THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD ON OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR...WHILE MORE PATCHY
IN THE WEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER NE TO E AR...MOVING
EAST AND WEAKENING. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE
WITH 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES
WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
STATE. THE UPPER RIDGE WAS PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD
KEEP A CAP ON ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS HELP WARM TEMPS
INTO THE 80S TODAY. WILL UPDATE FORECAST IN LATE MORNING TO REMOVE
FOG MENTION...FINE TUNE CLOUDS AND ANY LOW CONVECTION CHANCES...AND
ADJUST TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS. (59)
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT INVERSION TRAPPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIRF CONDITIONS NOTED
ACROSS MULTIPLE SITES. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH BR
LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INCRSG LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE NOTED OVR THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG. A WEAK SFC BNDRY WAS SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR...MAINLY DENOTED
BY SFC DEWPOINTS ARND 70F. SLGTLY DRIER AIR WAS INDCD OVR NRN AR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. VSBYS RMN ABV ADVY CRITERIA ATTM...BUT WL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
AN UPR RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOLY EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND SUN. THIS WL RESULT IN EARLY SUMMERLIKE CONDS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE VCNTY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY TODAY...SO
DID INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE NERN PART OF THE FA.
HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SLOW MOVG UPR
TROF WL WORK INTO PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NW OF AR STARTING LATE SUN.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN AR LATE SUN NGT AND
INTO EARLY MON AS THE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
THE UPR TROF/ASSOCD CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY WORK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FA
BY TUE AND TUE NGT...TO PRODUCE BETTER CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE RMNS
SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THIS STORM SYS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY. MEANWHILE...SOME
STRONG AND SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR PARTS OF NWRN AR MON
NGT AND EARLY TUE. EXTENT OF SVR WX THREAT LATER ON TUE/TUE NGT WL
DEPEND ON CONVECTION TRENDS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THE LOCATION OF
LINGERING SMALL SCALE BNDRYS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE IN THE CARDS...DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 88 69 85 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 70 90 70 87 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 68 87 67 83 / 10 10 30 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 71 90 70 86 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 89 70 85 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 70 90 71 86 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 70 88 70 86 / 10 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 89 67 85 / 10 10 30 30
NEWPORT AR 70 89 71 85 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 71 88 70 86 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 90 69 85 / 10 10 20 20
SEARCY AR 69 86 69 86 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 70 88 70 85 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 181524 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FOG HAS GRADUALLY THINNED THIS MORNING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELD ON OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR...WHILE MORE PATCHY
IN THE WEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER NE TO E AR...MOVING
EAST AND WEAKENING. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE
WITH 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.43 INCHES
WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
STATE. THE UPPER RIDGE WAS PUSHING EAST THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD
KEEP A CAP ON ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION AS WELL AS HELP WARM TEMPS
INTO THE 80S TODAY. WILL UPDATE FORECAST IN LATE MORNING TO REMOVE
FOG MENTION...FINE TUNE CLOUDS AND ANY LOW CONVECTION CHANCES...AND
ADJUST TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT INVERSION TRAPPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIRF CONDITIONS NOTED
ACROSS MULTIPLE SITES. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH BR
LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INCRSG LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE NOTED OVR THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG. A WEAK SFC BNDRY WAS SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR...MAINLY DENOTED
BY SFC DEWPOINTS ARND 70F. SLGTLY DRIER AIR WAS INDCD OVR NRN AR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. VSBYS RMN ABV ADVY CRITERIA ATTM...BUT WL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
AN UPR RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOLY EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND SUN. THIS WL RESULT IN EARLY SUMMERLIKE CONDS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE VCNTY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY TODAY...SO
DID INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE NERN PART OF THE FA.
HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SLOW MOVG UPR
TROF WL WORK INTO PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NW OF AR STARTING LATE SUN.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN AR LATE SUN NGT AND
INTO EARLY MON AS THE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
THE UPR TROF/ASSOCD CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY WORK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FA
BY TUE AND TUE NGT...TO PRODUCE BETTER CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE RMNS
SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THIS STORM SYS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY. MEANWHILE...SOME
STRONG AND SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR PARTS OF NWRN AR MON
NGT AND EARLY TUE. EXTENT OF SVR WX THREAT LATER ON TUE/TUE NGT WL
DEPEND ON CONVECTION TRENDS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THE LOCATION OF
LINGERING SMALL SCALE BNDRYS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE IN THE CARDS...DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 84 69 88 69 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 89 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 86 68 87 67 / 10 10 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 71 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 87 71 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 88 70 90 71 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 86 70 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 69 89 67 / 20 10 10 30
NEWPORT AR 86 70 89 71 / 20 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 87 71 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 66 90 69 / 10 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 85 69 86 69 / 20 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 87 70 88 70 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...224
000
FXUS64 KLZK 181201
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
701 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT INVERSION TRAPPING ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIRF CONDITIONS NOTED
ACROSS MULTIPLE SITES. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND DRIER AIR
MIXES DOWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH BR
LIKELY DEVELOPING AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INCRSG LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE NOTED OVR THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG. A WEAK SFC BNDRY WAS SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR...MAINLY DENOTED
BY SFC DEWPOINTS ARND 70F. SLGTLY DRIER AIR WAS INDCD OVR NRN AR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. VSBYS RMN ABV ADVY CRITERIA ATTM...BUT WL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
AN UPR RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOLY EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND SUN. THIS WL RESULT IN EARLY SUMMERLIKE CONDS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE VCNTY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY TODAY...SO
DID INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE NERN PART OF THE FA.
HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SLOW MOVG UPR
TROF WL WORK INTO PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NW OF AR STARTING LATE SUN.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN AR LATE SUN NGT AND
INTO EARLY MON AS THE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
THE UPR TROF/ASSOCD CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY WORK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FA
BY TUE AND TUE NGT...TO PRODUCE BETTER CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE RMNS
SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THIS STORM SYS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY. MEANWHILE...SOME
STRONG AND SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR PARTS OF NWRN AR MON
NGT AND EARLY TUE. EXTENT OF SVR WX THREAT LATER ON TUE/TUE NGT WL
DEPEND ON CONVECTION TRENDS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THE LOCATION OF
LINGERING SMALL SCALE BNDRYS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE IN THE CARDS...DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 84 69 88 69 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 89 70 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 86 68 87 67 / 10 10 10 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 87 71 90 70 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 87 71 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 88 70 90 71 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 86 70 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 69 89 67 / 20 10 10 30
NEWPORT AR 86 70 89 71 / 20 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 87 71 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 66 90 69 / 10 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 85 69 86 69 / 20 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 87 70 88 70 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...224
000
FXUS64 KLZK 180925
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
425 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INCRSG LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WERE NOTED OVR THE FA EARLY THIS
MRNG. A WEAK SFC BNDRY WAS SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR...MAINLY DENOTED
BY SFC DEWPOINTS ARND 70F. SLGTLY DRIER AIR WAS INDCD OVR NRN AR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. VSBYS RMN ABV ADVY CRITERIA ATTM...BUT WL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.
AN UPR RDG AXIS IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOLY EWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH
TODAY AND SUN. THIS WL RESULT IN EARLY SUMMERLIKE CONDS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM IN THE VCNTY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY TODAY...SO
DID INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE NERN PART OF THE FA.
HEADING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...A SLOW MOVG UPR
TROF WL WORK INTO PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE NW OF AR STARTING LATE SUN.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF NWRN AR LATE SUN NGT AND
INTO EARLY MON AS THE IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
THE UPR TROF/ASSOCD CDFNT WL EVENTUALLY WORK CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FA
BY TUE AND TUE NGT...TO PRODUCE BETTER CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA. THERE RMNS
SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THIS STORM SYS HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY. MEANWHILE...SOME
STRONG AND SVR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR PARTS OF NWRN AR MON
NGT AND EARLY TUE. EXTENT OF SVR WX THREAT LATER ON TUE/TUE NGT WL
DEPEND ON CONVECTION TRENDS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND THE LOCATION OF
LINGERING SMALL SCALE BNDRYS.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY...
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE IN THE CARDS...DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS ESTABLISHED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 180547 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1247 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR VSBY ALREADY AT HOT AND ADF...AND EXPECT TO DEVELOP AT HRO
AND BPK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLOUDS MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST
FROM SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST TAF SITES BY 10Z...AND WITH
PLENTY OF GROUND MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME
GUIDANCE HINTING AT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AFTER 18/18Z...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE OVERALL CHANCES OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THEN CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS NEXT WITH
STRONGER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL OVERALL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
THIS AFTERNOON MAIN UPPER LOBE OF LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...WHILE VERY ISOLATED IN THE CWA. MORNING CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED AND BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF AR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NW TO
CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUED OVER SW...SOUTH TO PARTS OF
FAR EAST AR. TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE 70S WITH SOME AROUND 80
DEGREE MARKS. THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO THE TN VALLEY AND TAKEN
MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH IT. A TRAILING WEAK SHEAR ZONE HAS REMAINED
OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
BEFORE HEATING SETTLES DOWN. IN PLACE ATMOSPHERE DOES REMAIN MOIST
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF FAR E AND
FAR SOUTH AR INTO THE EARLIER EVENING HOURS...THEN DROP IT OFF
AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING SKIES...AND WILL AGAIN
SEE AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POP SILENT AT THIS
TIME BUT WITH IN PLACE MOISTURE...TEMPS WARMING TO THE 80S...COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP. BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE SUPPRESSED. ON
SUNDAY...NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR AR...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SOME UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...CLOSER
TO NW AR...BUT SHOULD STILL HOLD OUT OF THE STATE. THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
CLOSER TO AR...AND FORECAST HAS CHANCES COMING INTO NW AR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN U.S. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECASTER. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO ARKANSAS
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT THEN MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND COULD STALL IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 180012 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
712 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...LEAVING NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS PRETTY MOIST SO EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...TO DEVELOP AFTER ROUGHLY 08Z. SHOULD ALSO
SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT AGL TONIGHT AS
WELL. SOME TEMPORARY IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR AT KHOT...KADF...KHRO AND
KBPK. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE OVERALL CHANCES OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THEN CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS NEXT WITH
STRONGER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL OVERALL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
THIS AFTERNOON MAIN UPPER LOBE OF LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...WHILE VERY ISOLATED IN THE CWA. MORNING CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED AND BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF AR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NW TO
CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUED OVER SW...SOUTH TO PARTS OF
FAR EAST AR. TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE 70S WITH SOME AROUND 80
DEGREE MARKS. THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO THE TN VALLEY AND TAKEN
MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH IT. A TRAILING WEAK SHEAR ZONE HAS REMAINED
OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
BEFORE HEATING SETTLES DOWN. IN PLACE ATMOSPHERE DOES REMAIN MOIST
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF FAR E AND
FAR SOUTH AR INTO THE EARLIER EVENING HOURS...THEN DROP IT OFF
AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING SKIES...AND WILL AGAIN
SEE AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POP SILENT AT THIS
TIME BUT WITH IN PLACE MOISTURE...TEMPS WARMING TO THE 80S...COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP. BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE SUPPRESSED. ON
SUNDAY...NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR AR...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SOME UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...CLOSER
TO NW AR...BUT SHOULD STILL HOLD OUT OF THE STATE. THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
CLOSER TO AR...AND FORECAST HAS CHANCES COMING INTO NW AR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN U.S. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECASTER. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO ARKANSAS
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT THEN MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND COULD STALL IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 78 66 87 66 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 82 69 88 67 / 40 20 10 10
HARRISON AR 80 65 87 66 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 68 88 68 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 67 87 69 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 81 69 88 68 / 60 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 78 66 86 67 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 65 87 66 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 78 65 89 68 / 20 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 80 68 87 68 / 50 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 81 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 79 67 86 66 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 80 68 87 68 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...64
000
FXUS64 KLZK 171931
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE OVERALL CHANCES OF
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THEN CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS NEXT WITH
STRONGER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL OVERALL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.
THIS AFTERNOON MAIN UPPER LOBE OF LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...WHILE VERY ISOLATED IN THE CWA. MORNING CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED AND BROKEN UP OVER MUCH OF AR...ESPECIALLY FROM THE NW TO
CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUED OVER SW...SOUTH TO PARTS OF
FAR EAST AR. TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE 70S WITH SOME AROUND 80
DEGREE MARKS. THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED TO THE TN VALLEY AND TAKEN
MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH IT. A TRAILING WEAK SHEAR ZONE HAS REMAINED
OVER SOUTHERN AR WITH A FEW SHOWERS NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING
BEFORE HEATING SETTLES DOWN. IN PLACE ATMOSPHERE DOES REMAIN MOIST
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF FAR E AND
FAR SOUTH AR INTO THE EARLIER EVENING HOURS...THEN DROP IT OFF
AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING SKIES...AND WILL AGAIN
SEE AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POP SILENT AT THIS
TIME BUT WITH IN PLACE MOISTURE...TEMPS WARMING TO THE 80S...COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP. BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE SUPPRESSED. ON
SUNDAY...NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR AR...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. SOME UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS...CLOSER
TO NW AR...BUT SHOULD STILL HOLD OUT OF THE STATE. THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO MONDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
CLOSER TO AR...AND FORECAST HAS CHANCES COMING INTO NW AR THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN U.S. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECASTER. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ARKANSAS TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO ARKANSAS
WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT THEN MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND COULD STALL IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 66 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 69 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 65 87 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 68 88 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 88 70 88 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 69 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 86 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 65 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 68 87 69 88 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 67 86 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 68 87 69 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 171749
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
EARLIER ENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER FAR NW AR AND FINE TUNED
CONVECTION CHANCES REST OF MORNING. REST OF TODAY SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER AR. IN
PLACE OVERALL MOIST ATMOSPHERE WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HEATING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING MUCH OF UPPER LIFT
WILL BE EAST OF AR...WITH JUST A BIT OVER FAR EASTERN AR. WILL FINE
TUNE POPS TO THIS AREA WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
CLOUDS TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WILL
BE ADJUSTING TEMPS DOWN IN CLOUD AREAS...WHILE HOLDING IN MORE SUNNY
POTENTIAL AREAS. (59)
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
SHRA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE IN THE SHRA...WITH IFR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
CLEARED OUT EARLIER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...BECOMING
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT ONLY SCT025 GOING AFTER 18/01Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPR LOW WAS CENTERED VCNTY OF THE AR/MO BRDR EARLY THIS MRNG.
IMPULSES ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE CONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHRA/
EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS PRIMARILY ERN AND SRN AR. PLAN TO MAKE A LAST
MINUTE DECISION REGARDING FIRST PD POP TRENDS. PTCHY FOG CONTS TO
FORM OVR THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS LINGER AT LEAST THRU SUNRISE.
THE UPR LVL LOW WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD TODAY...WITH RAIN CHCS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WL
RESULT IN PTCHY FORMATION ONCE AGAIN TNGT AND EARLY SAT MRNG. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA OVR PARTS OF NERN AR SAT AFTN...DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WL CONT TO KEEP POPS BLW
THRESHOLD CRITERIA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WL BE RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL LVLS OVR THE WEEKEND AS
A WEAK UPR RDG WORKS ACRS THE MID SOUTH. THE NEXT STORM SYS WL SLOLY
APCH AR FM THE PLAINS STATES STARTING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. MOST
OF THE MODELS CONT TO INDC A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYS...WITH
THE BEST CHCS OF CONVECTION RMNG TO THE NW OF THE FA THRU MON NGT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS AFFECTING PARTS
OF NRN AND WRN AR LATER SUN NGT AND AGAIN MON NGT...SO WL KEEP A
MENTION OF SCTD POPS IN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS SYS WL EVENTUALLY
WORK INTO AR BEYOND THIS FCST PD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF MORE
ACTIVE WX.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST IN
THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 66 88 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 69 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 65 87 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 68 88 69 89 / 10 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 88 70 88 / 10 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 69 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 65 86 68 88 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 65 89 69 87 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 68 87 69 88 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 67 86 67 89 / 10 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 68 87 69 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 171557 AAB
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
EARLIER ENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER FAR NW AR AND FINE TUNED
CONVECTION CHANCES REST OF MORNING. REST OF TODAY SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER AR. IN
PLACE OVERALL MOIST ATMOSPHERE WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON HEATING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING MUCH OF UPPER LIFT
WILL BE EAST OF AR...WITH JUST A BIT OVER FAR EASTERN AR. WILL FINE
TUNE POPS TO THIS AREA WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE. ALSO EXPECTING SOME
CLOUDS TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. WILL
BE ADJUSTING TEMPS DOWN IN CLOUD AREAS...WHILE HOLDING IN MORE SUNNY
POTENTIAL AREAS. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
.AVIATION...
SHRA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE IN THE SHRA...WITH IFR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
CLEARED OUT EARLIER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...BECOMING
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT ONLY SCT025 GOING AFTER 18/01Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPR LOW WAS CENTERED VCNTY OF THE AR/MO BRDR EARLY THIS MRNG.
IMPULSES ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE CONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHRA/
EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS PRIMARILY ERN AND SRN AR. PLAN TO MAKE A LAST
MINUTE DECISION REGARDING FIRST PD POP TRENDS. PTCHY FOG CONTS TO
FORM OVR THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS LINGER AT LEAST THRU SUNRISE.
THE UPR LVL LOW WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD TODAY...WITH RAIN CHCS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WL
RESULT IN PTCHY FORMATION ONCE AGAIN TNGT AND EARLY SAT MRNG. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA OVR PARTS OF NERN AR SAT AFTN...DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WL CONT TO KEEP POPS BLW
THRESHOLD CRITERIA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WL BE RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL LVLS OVR THE WEEKEND AS
A WEAK UPR RDG WORKS ACRS THE MID SOUTH. THE NEXT STORM SYS WL SLOLY
APCH AR FM THE PLAINS STATES STARTING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. MOST
OF THE MODELS CONT TO INDC A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYS...WITH
THE BEST CHCS OF CONVECTION RMNG TO THE NW OF THE FA THRU MON NGT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS AFFECTING PARTS
OF NRN AND WRN AR LATER SUN NGT AND AGAIN MON NGT...SO WL KEEP A
MENTION OF SCTD POPS IN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS SYS WL EVENTUALLY
WORK INTO AR BEYOND THIS FCST PD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF MORE
ACTIVE WX.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST IN
THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 171435 AAB
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER FAR NW AR AND FINE TUNED CONVECTION
CHANCES TODAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER AR...WITH OVERALL MOIST ATMOSPHERE WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HEATING. MUCH OF UPPER LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF AR. WILL UPDATE LATER IF NEEDED. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
.AVIATION...
SHRA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE IN THE SHRA...WITH IFR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
CLEARED OUT EARLIER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...BECOMING
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT ONLY SCT025 GOING AFTER 18/01Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPR LOW WAS CENTERED VCNTY OF THE AR/MO BRDR EARLY THIS MRNG.
IMPULSES ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE CONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHRA/
EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS PRIMARILY ERN AND SRN AR. PLAN TO MAKE A LAST
MINUTE DECISION REGARDING FIRST PD POP TRENDS. PTCHY FOG CONTS TO
FORM OVR THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS LINGER AT LEAST THRU SUNRISE.
THE UPR LVL LOW WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD TODAY...WITH RAIN CHCS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WL
RESULT IN PTCHY FORMATION ONCE AGAIN TNGT AND EARLY SAT MRNG. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA OVR PARTS OF NERN AR SAT AFTN...DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WL CONT TO KEEP POPS BLW
THRESHOLD CRITERIA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WL BE RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL LVLS OVR THE WEEKEND AS
A WEAK UPR RDG WORKS ACRS THE MID SOUTH. THE NEXT STORM SYS WL SLOLY
APCH AR FM THE PLAINS STATES STARTING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. MOST
OF THE MODELS CONT TO INDC A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYS...WITH
THE BEST CHCS OF CONVECTION RMNG TO THE NW OF THE FA THRU MON NGT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS AFFECTING PARTS
OF NRN AND WRN AR LATER SUN NGT AND AGAIN MON NGT...SO WL KEEP A
MENTION OF SCTD POPS IN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS SYS WL EVENTUALLY
WORK INTO AR BEYOND THIS FCST PD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF MORE
ACTIVE WX.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST IN
THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 171150 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
650 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
SHRA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE IN THE SHRA...WITH IFR ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS
CLEARED OUT EARLIER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 15Z...BECOMING
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT ONLY SCT025 GOING AFTER 18/01Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPR LOW WAS CENTERED VCNTY OF THE AR/MO BRDR EARLY THIS MRNG.
IMPULSES ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE CONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHRA/
EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS PRIMARILY ERN AND SRN AR. PLAN TO MAKE A LAST
MINUTE DECISION REGARDING FIRST PD POP TRENDS. PTCHY FOG CONTS TO
FORM OVR THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS LINGER AT LEAST THRU SUNRISE.
THE UPR LVL LOW WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD TODAY...WITH RAIN CHCS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WL
RESULT IN PTCHY FORMATION ONCE AGAIN TNGT AND EARLY SAT MRNG. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA OVR PARTS OF NERN AR SAT AFTN...DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WL CONT TO KEEP POPS BLW
THRESHOLD CRITERIA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WL BE RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL LVLS OVR THE WEEKEND AS
A WEAK UPR RDG WORKS ACRS THE MID SOUTH. THE NEXT STORM SYS WL SLOLY
APCH AR FM THE PLAINS STATES STARTING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. MOST
OF THE MODELS CONT TO INDC A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYS...WITH
THE BEST CHCS OF CONVECTION RMNG TO THE NW OF THE FA THRU MON NGT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS AFFECTING PARTS
OF NRN AND WRN AR LATER SUN NGT AND AGAIN MON NGT...SO WL KEEP A
MENTION OF SCTD POPS IN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS SYS WL EVENTUALLY
WORK INTO AR BEYOND THIS FCST PD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF MORE
ACTIVE WX.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST IN
THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 170927
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
425 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPR LOW WAS CENTERED VCNTY OF THE AR/MO BRDR EARLY THIS MRNG.
IMPULSES ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE CONT TO PRODUCE AREAS OF SHRA/
EMBEDDED TSRA ACRS PRIMARILY ERN AND SRN AR. PLAN TO MAKE A LAST
MINUTE DECISION REGARDING FIRST PD POP TRENDS. PTCHY FOG CONTS TO
FORM OVR THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS LINGER AT LEAST THRU SUNRISE.
THE UPR LVL LOW WL CONT TO SHIFT EWD TODAY...WITH RAIN CHCS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WL
RESULT IN PTCHY FORMATION ONCE AGAIN TNGT AND EARLY SAT MRNG. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHRA/TSRA OVR PARTS OF NERN AR SAT AFTN...DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WL CONT TO KEEP POPS BLW
THRESHOLD CRITERIA.
DAYTIME TEMPS WL BE RETURNING TO ABV NORMAL LVLS OVR THE WEEKEND AS
A WEAK UPR RDG WORKS ACRS THE MID SOUTH. THE NEXT STORM SYS WL SLOLY
APCH AR FM THE PLAINS STATES STARTING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. MOST
OF THE MODELS CONT TO INDC A SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYS...WITH
THE BEST CHCS OF CONVECTION RMNG TO THE NW OF THE FA THRU MON NGT.
CANNOT RULE OUT THE REMNANTS OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS AFFECTING PARTS
OF NRN AND WRN AR LATER SUN NGT AND AGAIN MON NGT...SO WL KEEP A
MENTION OF SCTD POPS IN FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THIS SYS WL EVENTUALLY
WORK INTO AR BEYOND THIS FCST PD...RESULTING IN ANOTHER PD OF MORE
ACTIVE WX.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST IN
THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW...STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY. AS THE LOW
FINALLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY...AND OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING
NATURE...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 170545 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
SHRA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
SHRA/VCSH...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AS RAIN MOVES OUT. ACROSS THE
NORTH...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR OUT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE REMAINING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SCT025 GROUP
AFTER 18/00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CURRENT UPPER SYSTEM...AND ANY RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THEN LOWER CHANCE ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN COLD FRONT MID NEXT WEEK WITH
CONVECTION. TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND NORMAL VALUES
TO WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW OVER AR...WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OK AND MOVING EAST. EARLIER ENERGY
SPOKE AND CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AR HAS MOVED NE. WHILE THE NEXT
SPOKE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED CONVECTION OVER
NE TX TO SW AR TO NW LA...WHICH WAS MOVING EAST SOUTH EAST.
STRONGEST PART OF THIS COMPLEX HAS MOVED OVER NE TX TO NW LA AND
HAS CUT OFF SOME ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR AR STORMS. MAINLY HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS OVER AR EARLIER...WHILE THIS AFTERNOON...A BIT MORE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MORE THUNDER IN THE SW AR
AND SOUTH CONVECTION AREAS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE E SE AND AFFECT SOUTHERN AR. SPC HAS SOUTHERN AR IN SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED AND MORE INSTABILITY CAN
ADVECT NORTHWARD. HAVE SEEN SOME SHORT BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SOME STORMS OVER AR WHILE 12Z KZLK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES...AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER
HAS HELPED KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAN TAKE HOLD...STORMS COULD INTENSITY
QUICKLY. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT IF ANY SEVERE STORMS FORM.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP FIRST PERIOD POPS HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN AR...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER AR...AND BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MODELS TRENDS GRADUALLY MOVE THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH AR TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP POP CHANCES HIGH THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT NOT END UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
WANT TO HOLD JUST A BIT OF UPPER ENERGY AND WITH AN UPPER NW
FLOW...OVER AR. THEREFORE ALL RAIN CHANCES FINALLY END BY SATURDAY
AM. ON SATURDAY MODELS AGAIN HINT AT SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IN THE NW UPPER FLOW...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER AR.
DUE TO HEATING TO THE 80S...IN PLACE MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY...HAVE A SILENT 14% POP GOING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF AN ISOLATED STORM DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SILENT
AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WILL BE SEEN WITH
AGAIN A SILENT POP GOING AT THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED...TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY...THEN WARM TO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY STALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 162329 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT AT ALL LEVELS. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT AT ADF...HOT...HRO...AND BPK...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY...BUT
WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL NEAR...CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. TAFS OUT ALREADY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CURRENT UPPER SYSTEM...AND ANY RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THEN LOWER CHANCE ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN COLD FRONT MID NEXT WEEK WITH
CONVECTION. TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND NORMAL VALUES
TO WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW OVER AR...WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OK AND MOVING EAST. EARLIER ENERGY
SPOKE AND CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AR HAS MOVED NE. WHILE THE NEXT
SPOKE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED CONVECTION OVER
NE TX TO SW AR TO NW LA...WHICH WAS MOVING EAST SOUTH EAST.
STRONGEST PART OF THIS COMPLEX HAS MOVED OVER NE TX TO NW LA AND
HAS CUT OFF SOME ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR AR STORMS. MAINLY HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS OVER AR EARLIER...WHILE THIS AFTERNOON...A BIT MORE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MORE THUNDER IN THE SW AR
AND SOUTH CONVECTION AREAS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE E SE AND AFFECT SOUTHERN AR. SPC HAS SOUTHERN AR IN SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED AND MORE INSTABILITY CAN
ADVECT NORTHWARD. HAVE SEEN SOME SHORT BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SOME STORMS OVER AR WHILE 12Z KZLK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES...AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER
HAS HELPED KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAN TAKE HOLD...STORMS COULD INTENSITY
QUICKLY. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT IF ANY SEVERE STORMS FORM.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP FIRST PERIOD POPS HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN AR...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER AR...AND BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MODELS TRENDS GRADUALLY MOVE THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH AR TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP POP CHANCES HIGH THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT NOT END UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
WANT TO HOLD JUST A BIT OF UPPER ENERGY AND WITH AN UPPER NW
FLOW...OVER AR. THEREFORE ALL RAIN CHANCES FINALLY END BY SATURDAY
AM. ON SATURDAY MODELS AGAIN HINT AT SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IN THE NW UPPER FLOW...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER AR.
DUE TO HEATING TO THE 80S...IN PLACE MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY...HAVE A SILENT 14% POP GOING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF AN ISOLATED STORM DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SILENT
AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WILL BE SEEN WITH
AGAIN A SILENT POP GOING AT THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED...TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY...THEN WARM TO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY STALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...57
000
FXUS64 KLZK 161935
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CURRENT UPPER SYSTEM...AND ANY RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THEN LOWER CHANCE ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. THEN COLD FRONT MID NEXT WEEK WITH
CONVECTION. TEMP FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND NORMAL VALUES
TO WARM UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW OVER AR...WITH THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OK AND MOVING EAST. EARLIER ENERGY
SPOKE AND CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AR HAS MOVED NE. WHILE THE NEXT
SPOKE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED CONVECTION OVER
NE TX TO SW AR TO NW LA...WHICH WAS MOVING EAST SOUTH EAST.
STRONGEST PART OF THIS COMPLEX HAS MOVED OVER NE TX TO NW LA AND
HAS CUT OFF SOME ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR AR STORMS. MAINLY HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS OVER AR EARLIER...WHILE THIS AFTERNOON...A BIT MORE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MORE THUNDER IN THE SW AR
AND SOUTH CONVECTION AREAS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE E SE AND AFFECT SOUTHERN AR. SPC HAS SOUTHERN AR IN SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED AND MORE INSTABILITY CAN
ADVECT NORTHWARD. HAVE SEEN SOME SHORT BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
SOME STORMS OVER AR WHILE 12Z KZLK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES...AND DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER
HAS HELPED KEEP INSTABILITY DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAN TAKE HOLD...STORMS COULD INTENSITY
QUICKLY. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT IF ANY SEVERE STORMS FORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP FIRST PERIOD POPS HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN AR...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER AR...AND BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MODELS TRENDS GRADUALLY MOVE THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH AR TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP POP CHANCES HIGH THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT NOT END UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
WANT TO HOLD JUST A BIT OF UPPER ENERGY AND WITH AN UPPER NW
FLOW...OVER AR. THEREFORE ALL RAIN CHANCES FINALLY END BY SATURDAY
AM. ON SATURDAY MODELS AGAIN HINT AT SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IN THE NW UPPER FLOW...BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER AR.
DUE TO HEATING TO THE 80S...IN PLACE MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY...HAVE A SILENT 14% POP GOING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF AN ISOLATED STORM DOES DEVELOP SATURDAY...BUT WILL KEEP SILENT
AT THIS TIME. ON SUNDAY...A WARM AND HUMID DAY WILL BE SEEN WITH
AGAIN A SILENT POP GOING AT THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED...TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY...THEN WARM TO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH TEXAS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY STALL UNTIL WEDNESDAY
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 62 79 65 86 / 70 40 20 10
CAMDEN AR 65 82 68 86 / 50 20 20 10
HARRISON AR 61 81 64 85 / 40 30 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 81 67 86 / 70 30 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 82 66 86 / 70 30 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 66 84 68 87 / 50 30 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 64 78 64 84 / 60 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 81 64 85 / 50 30 10 10
NEWPORT AR 62 79 64 87 / 70 40 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 65 81 67 85 / 60 30 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 82 65 85 / 70 30 10 10
SEARCY AR 64 80 66 84 / 70 30 20 10
STUTTGART AR 65 81 67 85 / 70 30 20 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 161751
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1251 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
THE UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS BORDER AND
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ARKANSAS. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG HAVE ALSO BEEN WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE.
LIGHT SOUTH AND EAST WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY IN SOUTH ARKANSAS WHERE THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BE ENDING
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
DID AN EARLIER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE AM POPS ACROSS THE STATE. SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS OVER
EASTERN OK AT THIS TIME. MODELS GRADUALLY MOVE THIS LOW THROUGH AR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT SPOKE OVER CENTRAL AR AND LIFTING
NNE...WHILE NEXT ONE OVER SE OK TO NE TX...AND MOVING EAST. MAINLY
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH THE CURRENT AREA OVER AR...WHILE MORE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE AREA OVER SE OK AND NE
TX. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND AFFECT SOUTHERN
AR...BEFORE LIFTING NE LATER TODAY. SPC HAS PUT SOUTHERN AR IN
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES...AND WE
DID SEE SOME MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WITH ON GOING
CONVECTION OVER AR. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS MARGINAL WITH LI
OF ONLY 0...WHILE CAPE OF 179 J/KG. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD MUCH OF
ANY HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY
SEVERE THREAT IF ANY SEVERE STORMS FORM. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO TRIM
TEMPS BACK DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS...WHILE FINE TUNE OTHER ELEMENTS
WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE. (59)
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS. HOWEVER...TSRA/VCTS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
18Z AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPR LVL LOW WAS CENTERED ACRS CNTRL OK EARLY THIS MRNG. AN AREA OF
WEAKENING CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR. WL
CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING ON POPS EARLY IN THE PD
THIS MRNG.
THE UPR SYS IS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ACRS AR TNGT AND FRI...
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WX CONDS. THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS WL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S ROTATING ARND THE MAIN
UPR LOW/RESULTING POPS AND TEMPS THRU FRI. INDCD HIGHEST POPS IN THE
VCNTY OF THE UPR LOW OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY DCRS FM THE W FRI AND FRI NGT AS THE UPR LOW
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E OF AR. UPR LVL RDG IS FCST TO BLDS INTO THE MID
SOUTH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
DIURNAL CONVECTION SAT AND SUN...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE APPEARS LOW
ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN THE FCST ATTM. THE NEXT UPR LVL TROF WL
APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW CHC POPS
MENTIONED ACRS NWRN AR LATER SUN NGT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TO START THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NORTHWEST MONDAY...BUT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE MONDAY...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FRONT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL
PLACEMENT...AND HAVE CONTINUED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY. ALSO...THERE IS
STILL INDICATIONS OF STRONG STORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 62 79 65 86 / 70 40 20 10
CAMDEN AR 65 82 68 86 / 50 20 20 10
HARRISON AR 61 81 64 85 / 40 30 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 81 67 86 / 70 30 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 82 66 86 / 70 30 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 66 84 68 87 / 50 30 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 64 78 64 84 / 60 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 81 64 85 / 50 30 10 10
NEWPORT AR 62 79 64 87 / 70 40 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 65 81 67 85 / 60 30 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 82 65 85 / 70 30 10 10
SEARCY AR 64 80 66 84 / 70 30 20 10
STUTTGART AR 65 81 67 85 / 70 30 20 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 161456 AAB
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1000 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
DID AN EARLIER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE AM POPS ACROSS THE STATE. SEVERAL
SPOKES OF ENERGY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS OVER
EASTERN OK AT THIS TIME. MODELS GRADUALLY MOVE THIS LOW THROUGH AR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT SPOKE OVER CENTRAL AR AND LIFTING
NNE...WHILE NEXT ONE OVER SE OK TO NE TX...AND MOVING EAST. MAINLY
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH THE CURRENT AREA OVER AR...WHILE MORE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING IN THE AREA OVER SE OK AND NE
TX. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND AFFECT SOUTHERN
AR...BEFORE LIFTING NE LATER TODAY. SPC HAS PUT SOUTHERN AR IN
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
IF STORMS CAN BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED. 12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES...AND WE
DID SEE SOME MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WITH ON GOING
CONVECTION OVER AR. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS MARGINAL WITH LI
OF ONLY 0...WHILE CAPE OF 179 J/KG. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD MUCH OF
ANY HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY
SEVERE THREAT IF ANY SEVERE STORMS FORM. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO TRIM
TEMPS BACK DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUDS...WHILE FINE TUNE OTHER ELEMENTS
WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
.AVIATION...
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS. HOWEVER...TSRA/VCTS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
18Z AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPR LVL LOW WAS CENTERED ACRS CNTRL OK EARLY THIS MRNG. AN AREA OF
WEAKENING CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR. WL
CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING ON POPS EARLY IN THE PD
THIS MRNG.
THE UPR SYS IS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ACRS AR TNGT AND FRI...
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WX CONDS. THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS WL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S ROTATING ARND THE MAIN
UPR LOW/RESULTING POPS AND TEMPS THRU FRI. INDCD HIGHEST POPS IN THE
VCNTY OF THE UPR LOW OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY DCRS FM THE W FRI AND FRI NGT AS THE UPR LOW
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E OF AR. UPR LVL RDG IS FCST TO BLDS INTO THE MID
SOUTH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
DIURNAL CONVECTION SAT AND SUN...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE APPEARS LOW
ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN THE FCST ATTM. THE NEXT UPR LVL TROF WL
APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW CHC POPS
MENTIONED ACRS NWRN AR LATER SUN NGT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TO START THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NORTHWEST MONDAY...BUT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE MONDAY...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FRONT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL
PLACEMENT...AND HAVE CONTINUED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY. ALSO...THERE IS
STILL INDICATIONS OF STRONG STORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 161151 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
651 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS. HOWEVER...TSRA/VCTS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
18Z AND MOVE EAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPR LVL LOW WAS CENTERED ACRS CNTRL OK EARLY THIS MRNG. AN AREA OF
WEAKENING CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVR PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL AR. WL
CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE DECIDING ON POPS EARLY IN THE PD
THIS MRNG.
THE UPR SYS IS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ACRS AR TNGT AND FRI...
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WX CONDS. THE MAIN FCST
CONCERNS WL BE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S ROTATING ARND THE MAIN
UPR LOW/RESULTING POPS AND TEMPS THRU FRI. INDCD HIGHEST POPS IN THE
VCNTY OF THE UPR LOW OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY DCRS FM THE W FRI AND FRI NGT AS THE UPR LOW
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E OF AR. UPR LVL RDG IS FCST TO BLDS INTO THE MID
SOUTH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD
DIURNAL CONVECTION SAT AND SUN...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE APPEARS LOW
ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN THE FCST ATTM. THE NEXT UPR LVL TROF WL
APCH FM THE PLAINS STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW CHC POPS
MENTIONED ACRS NWRN AR LATER SUN NGT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TO START THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FAR NORTHWEST MONDAY...BUT HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE MONDAY...BUT WILL SLOW DOWN/STALL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FRONT...THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL
PLACEMENT...AND HAVE CONTINUED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY. ALSO...THERE IS
STILL INDICATIONS OF STRONG STORMS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 80S...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
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