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000
FXUS64 KLZK 252344 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT WED MAY 2016

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions will be seen this evening and
overnight. All convection has moved out of AR this evening. Tonight
areas of lower ceilings and fog will form, bringing MVFR ceilings
and visibilities near TAF sites while isolated IFR will also be
possible. After sunrise on Thursday, any IFR or MVFR conditions will
gradually thin. Winds will be SW to SE at 5 to 10 mph or light and
variable this evening and overnight. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued315 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday Night

Have seen two separate areas of convection affect mainly nrn and
cntrl AR today...with the second now working acrs ERN AR. Sctd
SHRA/TSRA has formed acrs SRN AR this aftn thanks to peak heating
and residual outflow bndry interaction in a more unstable
environment. Elsewhere...an area of subsidence ovr NWRN AR allowed
skies to bcm partly cloudy this aftn...with some recovery in temps.
Plan to make a last minute call regarding POPs this evening based on
radar trends.

Models cont to have issues with short term convective trends...esp
when dealing with smaller scale features. The latest runs fm the
various rapid update model data suggest that much of the FA wl not
see much in the way of additional SHRA/TSRA later tngt into Thu
mrng...so plan just to keep mainly slgt chc POPs in the fcst.

Rain chcs wl begin to incrs once again later Thu and contg Thu ngt
as a new upr lvl storm sys moves into the SWRN states. Several
impulses wl eject NEWD fm the parent low...bringing several rounds
of convection to the FA by Thu ngt and contg into the start of the
Long Term. While not a significant concert attm...wl cont to monitor
rainfall amts in the new few days for the incrsd flash flood
potential acrs parts of the area.
&&

.Long Term...Friday Through Wednesday

Overall not planning a whole lot of changes to the extended term
forecast. Shortwave moving out of the southwestern US still on track
to lift into the central Plains through the weekend, resulting in
greatest rainfall chances across the area on Friday. By Saturday
night rain chances start dropping off markedly as a bit of shortwave
ridging occurs through Sunday night. However with southwesterly flow
aloft, several impulses will start to track across the area again by
Monday night thru the end of the extended term, so I will broadbrush
POPs thru those period.

At the surface, high pressure will remain east of the area during
much of the period, keeping a moist southerly flow in place across
the region. With the southwesterly flow aloft, any cooler air masses
dropping down thru the Plains won`t be able to push this far
southward.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...44 / Long Term...53





000
FXUS64 KLZK 251121 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
621 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
Complex of showers/storms will continue to move eastward this
morning, restricting conditions to mvfr or lower at times. By the
afternoon, vfr conditions will be prevalent, as remnant
showers/storms diminish or move eastward. Low clouds are expected
to develop late tonight, with mvfr or even ifr conditions
prevalent after the 06-08Z time frame. Tafs already out.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
Satellite imagery this morning shows thunderstorm complexes from
southern Kansas extending down into southeast Oklahoma. Looking at
the surface and synoptic setup...it`s no surprise...given
southwest upper flow over the region...and mesoscale surface
boundaries in place.

Showers/storms have developed and spread into western Arkansas
early this morning. Convection associated with the thunderstorm
complexes will wane in the next few hours...however...these will
likely generate new convection in the form of an mcv in the hours
around/after sunrise...with additional showers/storms expected.

Several problems to contend with today...not the least of which is
the instability present. Even if earlier precip works the airmass
over in places, recovery should be no problem. With dewpoints in
the 60s to lower 70s and temperatures in the 80s expected, there`s
plenty of opportunity for surface-based destabilization. There
could be isolated strong storms, with wind damage and hail a
concern. With deep moisture in place, localized heavy rainfall
would be a concern with any stronger storms as well. In other
words, similar to yesterday.

Though showers/storms will diminish somewhat later in the day...
scattered convection will remain a concern simply due to the
interaction of upper level impulses moving through, daytime
heating, and outflow from previous convection.

Scattered showers/storms will continue to be possible into
Thursday. By then, a much more potent upper level system will
approach the region from the southwest, with showers and
thunderstorms becoming likely in much of the area by the evening
hours.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
The long term period will remain unsettled as SW flow aloft will
continue for late this week through the Memorial Day weekend. Early
in the period...rain chances will be highest as an upper trough to
the west lifts NE Fri into Sat. Have high end chance to likely pops
for Fri into Sat as this trough lifts NE...north of the state. Will
then seen precip chances decrease as the SW flow aloft relaxes
some...and with no discernible upper disturbances moving overhead.

The weaker SW flow aloft will continue late this weekend into early
next week...which will keep moisture levels across the region
up...along with temps at or just above normal. For now...will keep
pops lower in the slight to low end chance category for the rest of
the long term due to the weaker flow aloft. As a result of this
weaker flow aloft...will likely see SHRA/TSRA coverage and potential
become more diurnally driven...with best pops during the day.
However...this could change some whenever any weak upper
disturbances pass overhead...or with any mesoscale systems moving
through the region. Even so...being several days out...don`t think
much higher pops would be necessary at this time.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 250212 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.Discussion...

Convection this evening continues to move east and weaken. Did see
isolated severe storms this evening with around 1 inch hail, heavy
rain and plenty of lightning. Most of the convection was located
over northern and parts of central AR. Have updated forecast earlier
to keep with convection trends, and will keep some chance overnight,
especially with convective complex over OK which is moving ESE
toward AR. Will lower temps a degree over NE areas due to rain and
clouds. Otherwise, will only fine tune elements with late evening
update. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

.Aviation...

VFR flight conditions will be seen overall to start this evening,
except over northern AR where MVFR and isolated IFR will be
possible. Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern to
north-central AR will continue to move east. Central and southern TAF
sites will only see isolated showers this evening. Tonight
convection over OK will gradually move southeast and reach AR. It is
expected to weaken and due to uncertainty, only used VCSH or VCTS.
Areas of IFR and MVFR will be more widespread Wednesday AM. Winds
will be SE to SW at 5 to 10 mph, while light and variable in spots.
(59)

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night

Cont to monitor convective trends this aftn acrs the fa. most of the
activity thus far has been confined to the nrn part of the cwa...on
the periphery of the upr rdg. persistent sly winds have brought
warmer and more humidity back to the region today...with mid aftn
temps in the 80s in most areas. the exception being the rain-cooled
locations in nrn AR.

Some of the rapid model update data sources rmn at odds with initial
convection ovr the fa this aftn...so fcst confidence heading into
tngt regarding pops in not that great. bottom line is the timing and
areal of coverage of convection heading into wed wl be determined by
smaller scale influences...ie bndrys and possible mcs activity.

For tngt...wl cont current fcst trends with highest pops mentioned
ovr the nwrn part of the fa...with lesser chcs over sern AR. There
is the possibility that another complex storms could organize ovr OK
tngt then translate into wrn AR wed mrng...with an overall dcrs in
coverage heading into wed aftn. models actually indc some weak upr
ridging ovr the area later wed into wed ngt. did leave slgt chc pops
ovr nrn ar late in the pd.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday

Moisture will continue to stream on the west side of the upper ridge
heading into the weekend. Expect rain chances to be on the increase,
especially Thursday night into Friday as a storm system moves
northeast out of Texas and overspreads the state Friday. Remnants
of the system will still be seen on Saturday, particularly over
Northeast Arkansas. By Sunday through the early part of the work
week, quiet weather will resume. To start temperatures will remain
near seasonal normals with the threat to go a few degrees above by
next week as ridging returns.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short term...44 / Long term...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 242346 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.Aviation...

VFR flight conditions will be seen overall to start this evening,
except over northern AR where MVFR and isolated IFR will be
possible. Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern to
northcentral AR will continue to move east. Central and southern TAF
sites will only see isolated showers this evening. Tonight
convection over OK will gradually move southeast and reach AR. It is
expected to weaken and due to uncertainty, only used VCSH or VCTS.
Areas of IFR and MVFR will be more widespread Wednesday AM. Winds
will be SE to SW at 5 to 10 mph, while light and variable in spots.
(59)

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night

Cont to monitor convective trends this aftn acrs the fa. most of the
activity thus far has been confined to the nrn part of the cwa...on
the periphery of the upr rdg. persistent sly winds have brought
warmer and more humidity back to the region today...with mid aftn
temps in the 80s in most areas. the exception being the rain-cooled
locations in nrn AR.

Some of the rapid model update data sources rmn at odds with initial
convection ovr the fa this aftn...so fcst confidence heading into
tngt regarding pops in not that great. bottom line is the timing and
areal of coverage of convection heading into wed wl be determined by
smaller scale influences...ie bndrys and possible mcs activity.

For tngt...wl cont current fcst trends with highest pops mentioned
ovr the nwrn part of the fa...with lesser chcs over sern AR. There
is the possibility that another complex storms could organize ovr OK
tngt then translate into wrn AR wed mrng...with an overall dcrs in
coverage heading into wed aftn. models actually indc some weak upr
ridging ovr the area later wed into wed ngt. did leave slgt chc pops
ovr nrn ar late in the pd.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday

Moisture will continue to stream on the west side of the upper ridge
heading into the weekend. Expect rain chances to be on the increase,
especially Thursday night into Friday as a storm system moves
northeast out of Texas and overspreads the state Friday. Remnants
of the system will still be seen on Saturday, particularly over
Northeast Arkansas. By Sunday through the early part of the work
week, quiet weather will resume. To start temperatures will remain
near seasonal normals with the threat to go a few degrees above by
next week as ridging returns.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short term...44 / Long term...61





000
FXUS64 KLZK 241810
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...24/18z taf cycle

Scattered convection affected parts of nrn AR earlier this mrng.
Any leftover small scale bndry/s could be a focus of additional
shra/tsra formation this aftn. meanwhile...another area of storms
wl affect parts of nrn AR this aftn...with tempo groups mentioned
at KHRO and KBPK with ocnl MVFR conds noted at times. otherwise...
expect vfr conds to prevail thru much of the pd. low clouds are
progged to advect into the area late tngt...with MVFR conds dvlpg
arnd daybreak. some improvement expected by late in the pd. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the northwest U.S. This pattern will
continue through tonight...then the ridge shifts slightly eastward.

An MCS in western Oklahoma continues to slowly move east. Arkansas
will experience mainly high cirrus blowoff from the storms this
morning. A short wave is expected to move across the state tonight
and this will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
area by this afternoon. Will keep the chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through Wednesday night as multiple
disturbances make their way through the area. Highs today will be in
the upper 70s to upper 80s and warmer Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Ridging will be noted over central/eastern sections of the country
in the extended period, with troughing out west. At the surface, a
front will remain nearly stationary in the Plains.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast on Thursday. By Friday/Friday night,
models have been consistent in showing a system aloft rotating
around the base of the western trough. This feature will bring
better chances of rain locally. After the system passes next
weekend, we will go back to hit/miss precipitation.

Adding up rain in the coming days, could have one to two inch
amounts north/west of Little Rock. Lesser amounts are expected
farther south/east. If there is any severe weather, it will be
spotty. Temperatures will tend to be above average.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KLZK 241148
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
648 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
A few showers and thunderstorms continue in northeast Arkansas
this morning. Expect these to move out of the area in the next
couple of hours. A couple of weak disturbances will move through
the area today and keep small chances of showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast. Best chances will be in the northwest and west
with the lowest chances in the southeast. Rain chances will
diminish early tonight. Mainly VFR conditions are expected, though
some MVFR conditions are expected this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the northwest U.S. This pattern will
continue through tonight...then the ridge shifts slightly eastward.

An MCS in western Oklahoma continues to slowly move east. Arkansas
will experience mainly high cirrus blowoff from the storms this
morning. A short wave is expected to move across the state tonight
and this will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
area by this afternoon. Will keep the chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through Wednesday night as multiple
disturbances make their way through the area. Highs today will be in
the upper 70s to upper 80s and warmer Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
Ridging will be noted over central/eastern sections of the country
in the extended period, with troughing out west. At the surface, a
front will remain nearly stationary in the Plains.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast on Thursday. By Friday/Friday night,
models have been consistent in showing a system aloft rotating
around the base of the western trough. This feature will bring
better chances of rain locally. After the system passes next
weekend, we will go back to hit/miss precipitation.

Adding up rain in the coming days, could have one to two inch
amounts north/west of Little Rock. Lesser amounts are expected
farther south/east. If there is any severe weather, it will be
spotty. Temperatures will tend to be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 232339 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
635 PM CDT MON 23 2016

.Aviation...

Overall VFR flight conditions, with ceilings, are expected in the
next 24 hours. Ceilings will be seen, with areas of MVFR with
showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over western AR. Lighter
showers or just light rain will be seen over mainly central to
eastern AR. Winds will be NE to SE at 5 to 10 mph this evening and
overnight. Winds will variable at 5 to 10 mph around showers. On
Tuesday, ceilings will lower with additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible, again mainly over western to central AR.
(59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 241 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday
An MCV...analyzed over northeast Oklahoma at 19z...is expected to
continue to move eastward through the evening hours. Scattered
convection is associated with this system...with the stronger
activity supported by greater instability.

Overall available convective energy is expected to increase during
this period. Low level warm advection...along with developing mesoscale
features...will support at least scattered convection through the
rest of this period. Additional MCS activity is likely across the
central/southern plains during this period...which also may
affect the forecast area while weakening as they approach.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Extended term still looking to be rather wet with POPs in virtually
every period.

Shortwave over the Southwestern US is still on track to progress
eastward and lift into the central plains by this weekend. The
forecast area will remain under a southwesterly flow aloft, and
several impulses are anticipated to ripple across the area.

At the surface high pressure will generally remain to the east of
the area, keeping a moist southerly flow in place. Disturbances
aloft, instability from daytime heating, and outflow boundaries will
be focal points for convection during the time frame.

With all of that said, highest POPs will be in the Thursday-Saturday
time frame as the shortwave progresses eastward, and POPs will
be notably lower Saturday evening thru the end of the extended term.

With the southerly flow in place, and dewpoints in the 60`s, it`s
going to feel a lot more like late May than it has recently. Max
temps will be back to normal, or a bit above.&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  30
Camden AR         66  87  71  88 /  20  20  20  20
Harrison AR       61  79  66  83 /  30  40  30  30
Hot Springs AR    66  84  71  85 /  30  30  20  20
Little Rock   AR  65  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
Monticello AR     65  87  70  88 /  20  20  20  20
Mount Ida AR      66  82  70  83 /  30  30  20  20
Mountain Home AR  61  80  66  85 /  30  50  30  40
Newport AR        63  84  68  86 /  30  40  30  30
Pine Bluff AR     65  86  69  87 /  20  20  20  20
Russellville AR   64  83  69  84 /  30  40  30  30
Searcy AR         62  84  68  86 /  30  40  30  20
Stuttgart AR      65  85  70  87 /  30  30  20  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...53





000
FXUS64 KLZK 231725
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1225 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
MCV centered just to the east of Tulsa will continue to promote
scattered convection...however activity will encounter a
drier...and more stable atmospheric column as it moves eastward.
A southerly sfc flow at 10-17 kts will decrease to 5-10kt shortly
after 00z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
Have made adjustments to near term forecasts to account for
approaching MCS activity across western sections.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
High cirrus clouds are across much of Arkansas this
morning...which are mostly coming from an MCS over Oklahoma and
Texas. This storm system continues marching east however should be
dissipating once it hits the Arkansas border. Much drier air and
lower dew points are just across the Oklahoma border. Rain chances
will be slight today but will be best in the west. Rain chances
will increase this afternoon and tonight as another short wave
will move through the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern
will continue through Tuesday.

An MCS continues across central and southern Oklahoma this morning.
The northern portion is weakening while the southern portion
continues to build eastward. This may affect Arkansas by mid
day...but would expect weakening by the time it reaches Arkansas.
Models indicate unsettled weather to start the week. Another MCS
should develop in eastern Oklahoma tonight and affect Arkansas
overnight into Tuesday. Yet another short wave will continue the
rain chances into and through Tuesday night. Highs today and Tuesday
will be in the 80s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The extended period will feature ridging over central/eastern
sections of the country, with troughing out west. Between these
features will be a front in the Plains that will remain stalled
through much of the long term.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day. By Friday/Saturday, there
are indications that a system aloft will rotate around the base of
the western trough, and will bring better chances of rain
locally.

Even so, widespread heavy rain is not expected at this time. If
there is any severe weather, it will be spotty. Temperatures will
tend to be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 231229
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
729 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Have made adjustments to near term forecasts to account for
approaching MCS activity across western sections.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

AVIATION...
High cirrus clouds are across much of Arkansas this
morning...which are mostly coming from an MCS over Oklahoma and
Texas. This storm system continues marching east however should be
dissipating once it hits the Arkansas border. Much drier air and
lower dew points are just across the Oklahoma border. Rain chances
will be slight today but will be best in the west. Rain chances
will increase this afternoon and tonight as another short wave
will move through the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern
will continue through Tuesday.

An MCS continues across central and southern Oklahoma this morning.
The northern portion is weakening while the southern portion
continues to build eastward. This may affect Arkansas by mid
day...but would expect weakening by the time it reaches Arkansas.
Models indicate unsettled weather to start the week. Another MCS
should develop in eastern Oklahoma tonight and affect Arkansas
overnight into Tuesday. Yet another short wave will continue the
rain chances into and through Tuesday night. Highs today and Tuesday
will be in the 80s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The extended period will feature ridging over central/eastern
sections of the country, with troughing out west. Between these
features will be a front in the Plains that will remain stalled
through much of the long term.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day. By Friday/Saturday, there
are indications that a system aloft will rotate around the base of
the western trough, and will bring better chances of rain
locally.

Even so, widespread heavy rain is not expected at this time. If
there is any severe weather, it will be spotty. Temperatures will
tend to be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99





000
FXUS64 KLZK 231147
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
647 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
High cirrus clouds are across much of Arkansas this
morning...which are mostly coming from an MCS over Oklahoma and
Texas. This storm system continues marching east however should be
dissipating once it hits the Arkansas border. Much drier air and
lower dew points are just across the Oklahoma border. Rain chances
will be slight today but will be best in the west. Rain chances
will increase this afternoon and tonight as another short wave
will move through the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night
A strong upper ridge will be over Arkansas today, with an upper low
over the east coast and over the Pacific Northwest. This pattern
will continue through Tuesday.

An MCS continues across central and southern Oklahoma this morning.
The northern portion is weakening while the southern portion
continues to build eastward. This may affect Arkansas by mid
day...but would expect weakening by the time it reaches Arkansas.
Models indicate unsettled weather to start the week. Another MCS
should develop in eastern Oklahoma tonight and affect Arkansas
overnight into Tuesday. Yet another short wave will continue the
rain chances into and through Tuesday night. Highs today and Tuesday
will be in the 80s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday
The extended period will feature ridging over central/eastern
sections of the country, with troughing out west. Between these
features will be a front in the Plains that will remain stalled
through much of the long term.

East of the front, have isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast each day. By Friday/Saturday, there
are indications that a system aloft will rotate around the base of
the western trough, and will bring better chances of rain
locally.

Even so, widespread heavy rain is not expected at this time. If
there is any severe weather, it will be spotty. Temperatures will
tend to be above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51





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