Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KLZK 210807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
207 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE FINALLY BEEN SEEN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS PAST SAT AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PERSISTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE CWA ARE STILL SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THIS SUN REGARDING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
AS LOCATIONS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION ...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT LIFT OVER THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME DZ OR SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE STATE WILL
BEGIN DEEPENING ON MON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND STARTS LIFTING TOWARDS
AR. AS A RESULT...START INCREASING POPS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND SFC LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW WILL THEN DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO AR.

TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE TEMPS
DROPPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION PROBABLY BEING SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO
THE 30S BY TUE EVENING ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...AND POTENTIALLY BECOME CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW.
THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COOLING TREND FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR ANOTHER WAVE
OF PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND TO HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND COLDER
TEMPS...HAVE STARTED TO INTRODUCE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE THE OVERALL TEMP PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ALL SNOW...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST A
COLD RAIN...MIXING WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WILL DEFINITELY DIMINISH SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY OBSERVED DATA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS ALWAYS...REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DATA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE STORM LOCATION AND STRENGTH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGH
WILL HEAD EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  39  54  46 /  10  10  30  50
CAMDEN AR         57  43  61  53 /  10  10  20  50
HARRISON AR       48  38  53  40 /  10  10  30  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  42  57  47 /  10  10  20  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  41  57  50 /  10  10  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     56  44  61  56 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      53  43  56  45 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  39  54  42 /  10  10  30  50
NEWPORT AR        51  39  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  41  59  53 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  41  56  45 /  10  10  30  50
SEARCY AR         51  38  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
STUTTGART AR      53  40  58  51 /  10  10  20  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
207 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HAVE FINALLY BEEN SEEN FOR PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS OF THIS PAST SAT AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PERSISTED INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WRN AND NWRN PARTS OF
THE CWA ARE STILL SEEING PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH THIS SUN REGARDING OVERALL CLOUD COVER
AS LOCATIONS ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REMAIN GENERALLY
CLOUDY. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE DAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SW OVER THE REGION ...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT LIFT OVER THE STATE BY
THIS EVENING INTO MON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME DZ OR SPRINKLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW OF THE STATE WILL
BEGIN DEEPENING ON MON...WITH SRLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION
AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TX AND STARTS LIFTING TOWARDS
AR. AS A RESULT...START INCREASING POPS ON MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND SFC LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SFC LOW WILL THEN DROP SE ACROSS THE STATE ON TUE...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVING INTO AR.

TUE HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE TEMPS
DROPPING FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE...WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION PROBABLY BEING SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE LAST TO MOVE THROUGH. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
50S LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP INTO
THE 30S BY TUE EVENING ACROSS NWRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF AR WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN...AND POTENTIALLY BECOME CLOSED OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW.
THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE COOLING TREND FOR TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...AS WELL AS PROVIDING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR ANOTHER WAVE
OF PRECIP.

DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR...AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN...AS WELL AS THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS UPPER
LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND TO HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS...STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND COLDER
TEMPS...HAVE STARTED TO INTRODUCE A BIT HIGHER CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WHILE THE OVERALL TEMP PROFILE
WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY ALL SNOW...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A
SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. THIS WOULD TEND TO SUGGEST A
COLD RAIN...MIXING WITH SOME VERY WET SNOW. AS A RESULT...ONLY
MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH FOR STORM TOTAL.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE HOWEVER...THESE AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEW DATA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WILL DEFINITELY DIMINISH SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE BETTER
SAMPLED BY OBSERVED DATA AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS ALWAYS...REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND DATA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS CHANGES IN THE STORM LOCATION AND STRENGTH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE TRAVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
READINGS WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE HIGH
WILL HEAD EAST BY FRIDAY...WITH RAIN COMING BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARKANSAS. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     50  39  54  46 /  10  10  30  50
CAMDEN AR         57  43  61  53 /  10  10  20  50
HARRISON AR       48  38  53  40 /  10  10  30  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  42  57  47 /  10  10  20  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  41  57  50 /  10  10  20  50
MONTICELLO AR     56  44  61  56 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNT IDA AR      53  43  56  45 /  10  10  20  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  49  39  54  42 /  10  10  30  50
NEWPORT AR        51  39  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
PINE BLUFF AR     54  41  59  53 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  41  56  45 /  10  10  30  50
SEARCY AR         51  38  55  48 /  10  10  20  50
STUTTGART AR      53  40  58  51 /  10  10  20  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 210454
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND ARE
BREAKING UP ELSEWHERE. THE LAST AREAS TO SEE CLEARING WILL BE THE
OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHRO
AND KBPK WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE BEFORE TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210454
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND ARE
BREAKING UP ELSEWHERE. THE LAST AREAS TO SEE CLEARING WILL BE THE
OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHRO
AND KBPK WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE BEFORE TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 210454
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND ARE
BREAKING UP ELSEWHERE. THE LAST AREAS TO SEE CLEARING WILL BE THE
OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHRO
AND KBPK WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE BEFORE TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 210454
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1054 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS HAVE ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE AND ARE
BREAKING UP ELSEWHERE. THE LAST AREAS TO SEE CLEARING WILL BE THE
OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHRO
AND KBPK WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE BEFORE TURNING MORE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 210003
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
603 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL
HANG ON IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK AND OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF THE
NORTH/WEST...WITH MVFR AND SOME IFR CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT OVER THE STATE...WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL
VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK AND
OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH/WEST...WITH MVFR AND SOME IFR
CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT OVER THE STATE...WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3
TO 7 MPH. (46)

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  49  38  54 /   0  10  10  30
CAMDEN AR         35  55  40  63 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       34  48  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  52  40  58 /  10  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  52  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      34  51  40  59 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  49  38  56 /  10  10  10  30
NEWPORT AR        31  49  39  54 /   0  10  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     34  52  40  62 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  52  39  57 /  10  10  10  30
SEARCY AR         31  49  36  54 /   0  10  10  20
STUTTGART AR      32  51  40  60 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 202103 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
303 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON IN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK AND
OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH/WEST...WITH MVFR AND SOME IFR
CEILINGS. THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT OVER THE STATE...WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3
TO 7 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  31  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  35  55  40 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  34  48  38 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  35  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  35  55  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  34  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  31  49  39 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  36  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  31  49  36 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  40 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46









000
FXUS64 KLZK 202100
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

TODAY...CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO ERODE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING
FOR COMPARATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST...BUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR ARKANSANS TO SEE THE SUN
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. DID SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON THE HIGH TEMPS...YET DID
TREND THE FORECAST A BIT WARMER. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THE FRONT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION
AND BRING COLD AIR ALOFT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH POST FRONTAL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE. ECMWF AND NAM ARE THE DRIEST OF THE
SOLUTIONS...WHILE THE GFS IS THE COLDEST AND WETTEST. AT THIS
TIME...WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE GFS...HOWEVER DO CONSIDER IT THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY...WITH A SECONDARY SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR/SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED. SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...BUT WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO CHRISTMAS DAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER WEATHER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMUP WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT
IN THE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. COLD/DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW...BUT THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SUBPAR BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  31  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  35  55  40 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  34  48  38 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  35  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  35  55  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  34  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  31  49  39 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  34  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  36  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  31  49  36 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  40 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 201725
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ELSEWHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN TODAY...BUT OVERALL CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201725
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SOME
CLEARING OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ELSEWHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN TODAY...BUT OVERALL CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     44  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         50  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     49  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        44  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     47  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         45  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      46  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 201117 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 201117 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION REMAINS STRONG
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY BY MID
DAY...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR. HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN...WITH VISBYS RESTRICTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 200821
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         51  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       45  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     50  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      48  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        46  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     48  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 200821
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE OVERALL
FLOW ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME DENSE FOG...MOST
SITES WILL SEE VIS REMAIN OVER 1 MILE. WHILE FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC UP TO ABOUT
THE 850 MB LEVEL...ALLOWING FOR VERY LITTLE IF ANY MIXING FOR A
CLEARING SKY. WILL ALSO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DZ THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT ONLY IF AT LEAST SOME MIXING
THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ALOFT CAN INITIATE. WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOL AGAIN FOR THIS SAT...REMAINING IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THE
CLOUDS BREAK.

THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SUNSHINE FOR SUN AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SW OVER THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MIXING. AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE
50S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON ACROSS THE REGION AS
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NW.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FOR
TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTING NE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SE INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUE. TUE WILL BE A DAY WHERE TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE WARMEST IN THE MORNING HRS...THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...KEEP PRECIP ONLY LIQUID AS TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SWITCH
OVER TO SOME WINTRY PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST OF
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH BEHIND
IT. WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MIXED WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW CENTRAL AND
NORTH BEFORE COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...AND BY CHRISTMAS...WINDS SHOULD BE BACK FROM THE SOUTH...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         51  34  55  41 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       45  32  48  37 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  34  52  40 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     50  34  54  42 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      48  34  51  40 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  45  33  49  38 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        46  30  49  38 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     48  33  52  40 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   49  34  52  39 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         46  30  49  37 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      48  32  51  39 /  10   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 200503
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1103 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW LOW MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER TRIES TO ADVECT IN. IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS SLOWLY BECOMING MVFR TO IFR BY MORNING. ALL TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR TO CONCLUDE THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY SPOTTY IN NATURE AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56/57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 200503
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1103 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT LOW LOW MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER TRIES TO ADVECT IN. IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS SLOWLY BECOMING MVFR TO IFR BY MORNING. ALL TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR TO CONCLUDE THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE VERY SPOTTY IN NATURE AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56/57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 192353
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AVIATION...
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE WILL
KEEP ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
THIS EVENING AND AFTER 21Z ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE,

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  47  30  48 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         37  51  34  53 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       33  45  33  48 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    36  49  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  50  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     37  50  35  53 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  50  30  51 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  47  33  49 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        32  48  31  48 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     36  48  32  50 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  51  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         32  47  28  47 /  10  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      36  48  32  49 /  20  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56
AVIATION...99






000
FXUS64 KLZK 192353
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

AVIATION...
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE WILL
KEEP ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE.
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
THIS EVENING AND AFTER 21Z ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE,

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  47  30  48 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         37  51  34  53 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       33  45  33  48 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    36  49  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  50  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     37  50  35  53 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  50  30  51 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  47  33  49 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        32  48  31  48 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     36  48  32  50 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  51  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         32  47  28  47 /  10  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      36  48  32  49 /  20  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

56
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KLZK 192105
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  47  30  48 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         37  51  34  53 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       33  45  33  48 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    36  49  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  50  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     37  50  35  53 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  50  30  51 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  47  33  49 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        32  48  31  48 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     36  48  32  50 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  51  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         32  47  28  47 /  10  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      36  48  32  49 /  20  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 192105
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OCCURRING WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND
SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT TO THE STATE. THIS WILL
LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WHILE CEILINGS WILL
LOWER ACROSS THE STATE. DO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME PATCHY FOG.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL WIND UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. AFTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DOUBLE BARREL SYSTEM MAY
RESULT IN A FEW FLURRIES IN THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MOVE IN THE
PLAINS...WITH WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS.
CLOUDS/CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN MAY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW
IN THE NORTH/WEST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  47  30  48 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         37  51  34  53 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       33  45  33  48 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    36  49  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  50  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     37  50  35  53 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  50  30  51 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  47  33  49 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        32  48  31  48 /  10  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     36  48  32  50 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  51  33  50 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         32  47  28  47 /  10  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      36  48  32  49 /  20  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 192026 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTH/WEST
WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS/SOME FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE.

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NORTH/WEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP IN MOST AREAS TOWARD NOON
ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO
8 MPH. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID SOMEWHAT TRIM BACK THE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BOTH TODAY...SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE FORECAST MAX...AND TONIGHT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER
REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
BEST POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND NERN AR TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ONLY LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO
AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  32  47  30 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         46  36  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       42  32  44  32 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  35  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  34  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     45  37  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  32  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  32  47  32 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        42  31  48  29 /  20  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     44  35  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  35  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         44  31  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      43  35  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 192026 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS
WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE NORTH/WEST
WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS/SOME FOG AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE.

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE
NORTH/WEST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS.
CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP IN MOST AREAS TOWARD NOON
ON SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO
8 MPH. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID SOMEWHAT TRIM BACK THE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BOTH TODAY...SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE FORECAST MAX...AND TONIGHT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER
REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
BEST POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND NERN AR TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ONLY LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO
AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  32  47  30 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         46  36  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       42  32  44  32 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  35  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  34  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     45  37  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  32  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  32  47  32 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        42  31  48  29 /  20  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     44  35  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  35  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         44  31  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      43  35  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KLZK 191705
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1105 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID SOMEWHAT TRIM BACK THE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BOTH TODAY...SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE FORECAST MAX...AND TONIGHT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER
REMAINING IN PLACE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR ARE CONTINUING AT SOME TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY LOW CIGS SEEN AT MOST SITES. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE...AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LA BORDER. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED RA...OR
DZ IS EXPECTED. WHILE SOME SITES WILL SEE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT THINK OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL LATER ON
SAT. AS A RESULT...KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
BEST POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND NERN AR TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ONLY LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO
AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT
FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  32  47  30 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         46  36  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       42  32  44  32 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  35  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  34  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     45  37  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  32  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  32  47  32 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        42  31  48  29 /  20  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     44  35  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  35  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         44  31  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      43  35  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65






000
FXUS64 KLZK 191705
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1105 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID SOMEWHAT TRIM BACK THE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO WARMED
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BOTH TODAY...SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE FORECAST MAX...AND TONIGHT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER
REMAINING IN PLACE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR ARE CONTINUING AT SOME TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY LOW CIGS SEEN AT MOST SITES. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE...AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LA BORDER. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED RA...OR
DZ IS EXPECTED. WHILE SOME SITES WILL SEE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT THINK OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL LATER ON
SAT. AS A RESULT...KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
BEST POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND NERN AR TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ONLY LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO
AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT
FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  32  47  30 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         46  36  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       42  32  44  32 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  35  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  34  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     45  37  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  32  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  32  47  32 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        42  31  48  29 /  20  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     44  35  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   48  35  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         44  31  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      43  35  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191107 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
507 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR ARE CONTINUING AT SOME TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY LOW CIGS SEEN AT MOST SITES. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE...AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LA BORDER. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED RA...OR
DZ IS EXPECTED. WHILE SOME SITES WILL SEE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT THINK OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL LATER ON
SAT. AS A RESULT...KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
BEST POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND NERN AR TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ONLY LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO
AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT
FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  30  47  30 /  40  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         45  34  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       41  30  44  32 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  33  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  32  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     44  35  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  30  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  30  47  32 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        41  29  48  29 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     43  33  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  33  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         43  29  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      42  33  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 191107 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
507 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR ARE CONTINUING AT SOME TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY LOW CIGS SEEN AT MOST SITES. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE...AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LA BORDER. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY SOME ISOLATED RA...OR
DZ IS EXPECTED. WHILE SOME SITES WILL SEE SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS
IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT THINK OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS UNTIL LATER ON
SAT. AS A RESULT...KEEP AT LEAST SOME MENTION OF MVFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE
BEST POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND NERN AR TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE
ONLY LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND
WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO
AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP
ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT
FAR OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  30  47  30 /  40  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         45  34  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       41  30  44  32 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  33  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  32  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     44  35  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  30  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  30  47  32 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        41  29  48  29 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     43  33  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  33  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         43  29  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      42  33  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 190812
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST
POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NERN AR
TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE ONLY LOOKS TO
BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE
COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT
FAR OUT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  30  47  30 /  40  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         45  34  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       41  30  44  32 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  33  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  32  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     44  35  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  30  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  30  47  32 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        41  29  48  29 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     43  33  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  33  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         43  29  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      42  33  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 190812
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
212 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SEND DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. AT
THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THERE.

FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY PATCHY THIS MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT AFTER SUNRISE. MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING MOST OF THE
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...
AND PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY LATE SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF A SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE...WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A COLD FRONT AND COLDER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION. INITIALLY...ONLY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST
POPS ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE REMAINING TUE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NERN AR
TO SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIP MIX IN. AT THIS TIME...THERE ONLY LOOKS TO
BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHAT MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT OVER WHEN THAT COLD AIR SETTLES INTO AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP ARE VERY POSSIBLE IN THE
COMING DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WED WITH
FLOW ALOFT MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM MAY
MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AR ON WED...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...KEEP SILENT POPS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
NEARLY ZONAL...WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING LOW AND TEMPS STARTING
TO MODERATE. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW THE MED RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN COLDER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THAT
FAR OUT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     41  30  47  30 /  40  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         45  34  50  32 /  70  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       41  30  44  32 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  33  49  32 /  50  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  43  32  50  32 /  60  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     44  35  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      44  30  49  29 /  50  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  30  47  32 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        41  29  48  29 /  40  30  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     43  33  47  31 /  70  40  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  33  51  33 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         43  29  46  28 /  50  20  10   0
STUTTGART AR      42  33  48  30 /  60  40  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 190508 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

THE 06Z TAF CYCLE WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THERE IS
CONFLICTING SUPPORT FOR BOTH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LEVELS OR A
CONTINUATION OF LIFR OR IFR CATEGORIES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF LOW CIGS AND VSBY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
UNFAVORABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 20Z...AND
EVEN THEN ONLY BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE CIGS LOWER
ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME -RA OR -RADZ AT
KADF...KPBF...AND KLLQ...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AFTER 16Z FRI. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE OVER AR WITH
SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING WAS SATURATED
FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FEET. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE SEEN...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL HOLD
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AR. TEMPS WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S. LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS.
(59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PUSHED AWAY FROM
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PORTIONS OF THE STATE DID SEE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE STATE. FOR
TONIGHT...DID KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE STATE. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LIKE THE MAV IS SUGGESTING
AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS. FOR TONIGHT...DID
EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE STATE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT DRIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS. SINCE
STORM SYSTEMS ALONG THE GULF DO TYPICALLY ROB MOISTURE FROM
ARKANSAS...DID GO AND SCALE BACK ON POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE STATE.
BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH ARKANSAS WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR...THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS SEEING WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE STATE
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z SATURDAY SO THE WINDOW FOR AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALIGNING IS QUITE SMALL.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DATA IS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER
THE FRONT GOES BY...A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT LOOKS BREEZY AND DRY LOCALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WILL END
WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM... WITH WARMING THURSDAY NIGHT. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  42  32  48 /  10  30  20  10
CAMDEN AR         42  48  38  52 /  10  70  30  10
HARRISON AR       34  42  33  47 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    41  46  35  50 /  10  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  40  45  36  49 /  10  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     41  47  38  50 /  10  70  50  10
MOUNT IDA AR      38  46  33  50 /  10  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  42  33  48 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        35  42  32  48 /  10  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     40  45  37  49 /  10  60  40  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  46  35  50 /  10  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         36  43  33  48 /  10  40  20  10
STUTTGART AR      39  45  36  49 /  10  50  40  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 190508 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1108 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

THE 06Z TAF CYCLE WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS THERE IS
CONFLICTING SUPPORT FOR BOTH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LEVELS OR A
CONTINUATION OF LIFR OR IFR CATEGORIES OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF LOW CIGS AND VSBY...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
UNFAVORABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD CIGS BELOW 1000 FT AGL
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 20Z...AND
EVEN THEN ONLY BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE CIGS LOWER
ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME -RA OR -RADZ AT
KADF...KPBF...AND KLLQ...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AFTER 16Z FRI. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE OVER AR WITH
SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING WAS SATURATED
FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FEET. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE SEEN...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL HOLD
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AR. TEMPS WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S. LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS.
(59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PUSHED AWAY FROM
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PORTIONS OF THE STATE DID SEE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE STATE. FOR
TONIGHT...DID KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE STATE. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LIKE THE MAV IS SUGGESTING
AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS. FOR TONIGHT...DID
EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE STATE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT DRIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS. SINCE
STORM SYSTEMS ALONG THE GULF DO TYPICALLY ROB MOISTURE FROM
ARKANSAS...DID GO AND SCALE BACK ON POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE STATE.
BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH ARKANSAS WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR...THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS SEEING WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE STATE
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z SATURDAY SO THE WINDOW FOR AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALIGNING IS QUITE SMALL.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DATA IS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER
THE FRONT GOES BY...A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT LOOKS BREEZY AND DRY LOCALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WILL END
WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM... WITH WARMING THURSDAY NIGHT. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  42  32  48 /  10  30  20  10
CAMDEN AR         42  48  38  52 /  10  70  30  10
HARRISON AR       34  42  33  47 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    41  46  35  50 /  10  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  40  45  36  49 /  10  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     41  47  38  50 /  10  70  50  10
MOUNT IDA AR      38  46  33  50 /  10  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  42  33  48 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        35  42  32  48 /  10  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     40  45  37  49 /  10  60  40  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  46  35  50 /  10  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         36  43  33  48 /  10  40  20  10
STUTTGART AR      39  45  36  49 /  10  50  40  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 190218 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE OVER AR WITH
SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING WAS SATURATED
FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FEET. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY BE SEEN...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL HOLD
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND CENTRAL...TO THE MID 40S
SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY WITH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AR. TEMPS WILL HOLD
IN THE 40S. LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

.AVIATION...

IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH -DZ A POSSIBILITY AT KLIT...KHOT...AND KADF OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. INCOMING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO SRN ARKANSAS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
KHOT...KADF...AND KLIT. INCLUDED VCSH AT THOSE SITES AFTER
14-16Z...BUT WILL CARRY -RA AT KPBF AND KLLQ AFTER THAT TIME AS
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THOSE TERMINALS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE SEEN...BUT IT WOULD
BE AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PUSHED AWAY FROM
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PORTIONS OF THE STATE DID SEE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE STATE. FOR
TONIGHT...DID KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE STATE. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LIKE THE MAV IS SUGGESTING
AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS. FOR TONIGHT...DID
EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE STATE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT DRIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS. SINCE
STORM SYSTEMS ALONG THE GULF DO TYPICALLY ROB MOISTURE FROM
ARKANSAS...DID GO AND SCALE BACK ON POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE STATE.
BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH ARKANSAS WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR...THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS SEEING WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE STATE
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z SATURDAY SO THE WINDOW FOR AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALIGNING IS QUITE SMALL.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DATA IS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER
THE FRONT GOES BY...A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT LOOKS BREEZY AND DRY LOCALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WILL END
WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM... WITH WARMING THURSDAY NIGHT. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  35  42  32 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         47  42  48  38 /  20  10  70  30
HARRISON AR       42  34  42  33 /  20  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  41  46  35 /  20  10  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  40  45  36 /  20  10  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  38 /  20  10  70  50
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  46  33 /  20  10  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  42  33 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        43  35  42  32 /  20  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     45  40  45  37 /  20  10  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  46  35 /  20  10  30  10
SEARCY AR         44  36  43  33 /  20  10  40  20
STUTTGART AR      43  39  45  36 /  20  10  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64











000
FXUS64 KLZK 182357 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
557 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH -DZ A POSSIBILITY AT KLIT...KHOT...AND KADF OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. INCOMING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO SRN ARKANSAS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
KHOT...KADF...AND KLIT. INCLUDED VCSH AT THOSE SITES AFTER
14-16Z...BUT WILL CARRY -RA AT KPBF AND KLLQ AFTER THAT TIME AS
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THOSE TERMINALS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE SEEN...BUT IT WOULD
BE AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PUSHED AWAY FROM
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PORTIONS OF THE STATE DID SEE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE STATE. FOR
TONIGHT...DID KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE STATE. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LIKE THE MAV IS SUGGESTING
AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS. FOR TONIGHT...DID
EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE STATE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT DRIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS. SINCE
STORM SYSTEMS ALONG THE GULF DO TYPICALLY ROB MOISTURE FROM
ARKANSAS...DID GO AND SCALE BACK ON POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE STATE.
BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH ARKANSAS WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR...THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS SEEING WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE STATE
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z SATURDAY SO THE WINDOW FOR AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALIGNING IS QUITE SMALL.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DATA IS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER
THE FRONT GOES BY...A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT LOOKS BREEZY AND DRY LOCALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WILL END
WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM... WITH WARMING THURSDAY NIGHT. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  35  42  32 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         47  42  48  38 /  20  10  70  30
HARRISON AR       42  34  42  33 /  20  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  41  46  35 /  20  10  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  40  45  36 /  20  10  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  38 /  20  10  70  50
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  46  33 /  20  10  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  42  33 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        43  35  42  32 /  20  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     45  40  45  37 /  20  10  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  46  35 /  20  10  30  10
SEARCY AR         44  36  43  33 /  20  10  40  20
STUTTGART AR      43  39  45  36 /  20  10  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 182357 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
557 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH -DZ A POSSIBILITY AT KLIT...KHOT...AND KADF OVERNIGHT
AS WELL. INCOMING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO SRN ARKANSAS
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS
KHOT...KADF...AND KLIT. INCLUDED VCSH AT THOSE SITES AFTER
14-16Z...BUT WILL CARRY -RA AT KPBF AND KLLQ AFTER THAT TIME AS
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THOSE TERMINALS. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE SEEN...BUT IT WOULD
BE AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PUSHED AWAY FROM
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PORTIONS OF THE STATE DID SEE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE STATE. FOR
TONIGHT...DID KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE STATE. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LIKE THE MAV IS SUGGESTING
AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS. FOR TONIGHT...DID
EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE STATE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT DRIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS. SINCE
STORM SYSTEMS ALONG THE GULF DO TYPICALLY ROB MOISTURE FROM
ARKANSAS...DID GO AND SCALE BACK ON POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE STATE.
BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH ARKANSAS WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR...THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS SEEING WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE STATE
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z SATURDAY SO THE WINDOW FOR AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALIGNING IS QUITE SMALL.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DATA IS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER
THE FRONT GOES BY...A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT LOOKS BREEZY AND DRY LOCALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WILL END
WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM... WITH WARMING THURSDAY NIGHT. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  35  42  32 /  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN AR         47  42  48  38 /  20  10  70  30
HARRISON AR       42  34  42  33 /  20  10  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  41  46  35 /  20  10  40  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  40  45  36 /  20  10  50  20
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  38 /  20  10  70  50
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  46  33 /  20  10  40  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  42  33 /  20  10  20  10
NEWPORT AR        43  35  42  32 /  20  10  30  20
PINE BLUFF AR     45  40  45  37 /  20  10  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  46  35 /  20  10  30  10
SEARCY AR         44  36  43  33 /  20  10  40  20
STUTTGART AR      43  39  45  36 /  20  10  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64









000
FXUS64 KLZK 182124
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PUSHED AWAY FROM
ARKANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PORTIONS OF THE STATE DID SEE
AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE STATE. FOR
TONIGHT...DID KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THE STATE. ALSO NOT
EXPECTING DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE STATE LIKE THE MAV IS SUGGESTING
AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS. FOR TONIGHT...DID
EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG TO ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE STATE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT DRIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ARKANSAS. SINCE
STORM SYSTEMS ALONG THE GULF DO TYPICALLY ROB MOISTURE FROM
ARKANSAS...DID GO AND SCALE BACK ON POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE STATE.
BY THE TIME THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH ARKANSAS WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR...THERE LOOKS TO BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS SEEING WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE OUT OF THE STATE
SHORTLY AFTER 6Z SATURDAY SO THE WINDOW FOR AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ALIGNING IS QUITE SMALL.

DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DATA IS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT GOING THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER
THE FRONT GOES BY...A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND TRACK TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...IT LOOKS BREEZY AND DRY LOCALLY CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE PERIOD WILL END
WITH ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM... WITH WARMING THURSDAY NIGHT. HIT AND MISS SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  42  32  48 /  10  30  20  10
CAMDEN AR         42  48  38  52 /  10  70  30  10
HARRISON AR       34  42  33  47 /  10  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    41  46  35  50 /  10  40  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  40  45  36  49 /  10  50  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     41  47  38  50 /  10  70  50  10
MOUNT IDA AR      38  46  33  50 /  10  40  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  42  33  48 /  10  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        35  42  32  48 /  10  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     40  45  37  49 /  10  60  40  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   39  46  35  50 /  10  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         36  43  33  48 /  10  40  20  10
STUTTGART AR      39  45  36  49 /  10  50  40  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 182009 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL VARY FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE STATE
AND ADD A MENTION OF DRIZZLE. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ALSO
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF SLEET MIXED IN IN THE WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SEND
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN AS WELL. WITH THIS...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A MIX WITH
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST BEFORE
ENDING. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY...IT
WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A QUICK MOVING
UPPER WAVE MOVING SE OVER AR. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED MON INTO MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TUE INTO WED AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ERODE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
LIQUID FORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SWITCH OVER PERIOD JUST BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS TUE NIGHT. AS
STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  35  42  32 /  20  10  50  40
CAMDEN AR         47  42  47  37 /  20  20  80  60
HARRISON AR       42  34  41  31 /  20  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  40  45  34 /  20  20  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  39  45  35 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  37 /  20  20  80  80
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  45  33 /  20  20  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  41  31 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        43  35  42  32 /  20  10  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     45  39  45  36 /  20  20  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  45  34 /  20  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         44  35  43  33 /  20  10  60  60
STUTTGART AR      43  38  45  35 /  20  20  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65










000
FXUS64 KLZK 182009 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS WILL CREATE MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL VARY FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE STATE
AND ADD A MENTION OF DRIZZLE. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ALSO
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF SLEET MIXED IN IN THE WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SEND
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN AS WELL. WITH THIS...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A MIX WITH
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST BEFORE
ENDING. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY...IT
WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A QUICK MOVING
UPPER WAVE MOVING SE OVER AR. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED MON INTO MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TUE INTO WED AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ERODE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
LIQUID FORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SWITCH OVER PERIOD JUST BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS TUE NIGHT. AS
STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  35  42  32 /  20  10  50  40
CAMDEN AR         47  42  47  37 /  20  20  80  60
HARRISON AR       42  34  41  31 /  20  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  40  45  34 /  20  20  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  39  45  35 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  37 /  20  20  80  80
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  45  33 /  20  20  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  41  31 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        43  35  42  32 /  20  10  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     45  39  45  36 /  20  20  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  45  34 /  20  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         44  35  43  33 /  20  10  60  60
STUTTGART AR      43  38  45  35 /  20  20  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65











000
FXUS64 KLZK 181656
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1056 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE STATE
AND ADD A MENTION OF DRIZZLE. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ALSO
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS UNDER THIS RAINFALL HAVE RANGED FROM MVFR TO AS LOW AS
LIFR IN SOME SPOTS. BEHIND THE EXITING RAINFALL...AREAS OF DZ AND
LOW CIGS WILL BE SEEN...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME IMPROVEMENTS MAY BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT MOST
TERMINALS. SOME FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT CONDITION IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF SLEET MIXED IN IN THE WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SEND
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN AS WELL. WITH THIS...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A MIX WITH
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST BEFORE
ENDING. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY...IT
WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A QUICK MOVING
UPPER WAVE MOVING SE OVER AR. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED MON INTO MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TUE INTO WED AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ERODE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
LIQUID FORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SWITCH OVER PERIOD JUST BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS TUE NIGHT. AS
STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  35  42  32 /  20  10  50  40
CAMDEN AR         47  42  47  37 /  20  20  80  60
HARRISON AR       42  34  41  31 /  20  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  40  45  34 /  20  20  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  39  45  35 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  37 /  20  20  80  80
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  45  33 /  20  20  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  41  31 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        43  35  42  32 /  20  10  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     45  39  45  36 /  20  20  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  45  34 /  20  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         44  35  43  33 /  20  10  60  60
STUTTGART AR      43  38  45  35 /  20  20  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65








000
FXUS64 KLZK 181656
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1056 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE STATE
AND ADD A MENTION OF DRIZZLE. EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ALSO
BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS UNDER THIS RAINFALL HAVE RANGED FROM MVFR TO AS LOW AS
LIFR IN SOME SPOTS. BEHIND THE EXITING RAINFALL...AREAS OF DZ AND
LOW CIGS WILL BE SEEN...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME IMPROVEMENTS MAY BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT MOST
TERMINALS. SOME FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT CONDITION IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF SLEET MIXED IN IN THE WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SEND
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN AS WELL. WITH THIS...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A MIX WITH
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST BEFORE
ENDING. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY...IT
WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A QUICK MOVING
UPPER WAVE MOVING SE OVER AR. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED MON INTO MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TUE INTO WED AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ERODE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
LIQUID FORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SWITCH OVER PERIOD JUST BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS TUE NIGHT. AS
STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  35  42  32 /  20  10  50  40
CAMDEN AR         47  42  47  37 /  20  20  80  60
HARRISON AR       42  34  41  31 /  20  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  40  45  34 /  20  20  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  39  45  35 /  20  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  37 /  20  20  80  80
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  45  33 /  20  20  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  41  31 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        43  35  42  32 /  20  10  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     45  39  45  36 /  20  20  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  45  34 /  20  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         44  35  43  33 /  20  10  60  60
STUTTGART AR      43  38  45  35 /  20  20  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

65







000
FXUS64 KLZK 181100 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS UNDER THIS RAINFALL HAVE RANGED FROM MVFR TO AS LOW AS
LIFR IN SOME SPOTS. BEHIND THE EXITING RAINFALL...AREAS OF DZ AND
LOW CIGS WILL BE SEEN...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME IMPROVEMENTS MAY BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT MOST
TERMINALS. SOME FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT CONDITION IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF SLEET MIXED IN IN THE WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SEND
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN AS WELL. WITH THIS...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A MIX WITH
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST BEFORE
ENDING. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY...IT
WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A QUICK MOVING
UPPER WAVE MOVING SE OVER AR. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED MON INTO MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TUE INTO WED AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ERODE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
LIQUID FORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SWITCH OVER PERIOD JUST BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS TUE NIGHT. AS
STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  35  42  32 /  20  10  50  40
CAMDEN AR         47  42  47  37 /  40  30  80  60
HARRISON AR       42  34  41  31 /  30  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  40  45  34 /  30  20  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  39  45  35 /  30  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  37 /  40  20  80  80
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  45  33 /  20  20  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  41  31 /  30  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        40  35  42  32 /  20  10  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     45  39  45  36 /  30  20  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  45  34 /  20  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         44  35  43  33 /  20  10  60  60
STUTTGART AR      43  38  45  35 /  30  10  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 181100 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS UNDER THIS RAINFALL HAVE RANGED FROM MVFR TO AS LOW AS
LIFR IN SOME SPOTS. BEHIND THE EXITING RAINFALL...AREAS OF DZ AND
LOW CIGS WILL BE SEEN...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME IMPROVEMENTS MAY BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT MOST
TERMINALS. SOME FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT CONDITION IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF SLEET MIXED IN IN THE WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SEND
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN AS WELL. WITH THIS...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A MIX WITH
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST BEFORE
ENDING. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY...IT
WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A QUICK MOVING
UPPER WAVE MOVING SE OVER AR. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED MON INTO MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TUE INTO WED AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ERODE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
LIQUID FORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SWITCH OVER PERIOD JUST BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS TUE NIGHT. AS
STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  35  42  32 /  20  10  50  40
CAMDEN AR         47  42  47  37 /  40  30  80  60
HARRISON AR       42  34  41  31 /  30  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  40  45  34 /  30  20  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  39  45  35 /  30  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  37 /  40  20  80  80
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  45  33 /  20  20  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  41  31 /  30  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        40  35  42  32 /  20  10  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     45  39  45  36 /  30  20  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  45  34 /  20  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         44  35  43  33 /  20  10  60  60
STUTTGART AR      43  38  45  35 /  30  10  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






000
FXUS64 KLZK 181100 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS UNDER THIS RAINFALL HAVE RANGED FROM MVFR TO AS LOW AS
LIFR IN SOME SPOTS. BEHIND THE EXITING RAINFALL...AREAS OF DZ AND
LOW CIGS WILL BE SEEN...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME IMPROVEMENTS MAY BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT MOST
TERMINALS. SOME FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT CONDITION IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF SLEET MIXED IN IN THE WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SEND
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN AS WELL. WITH THIS...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A MIX WITH
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST BEFORE
ENDING. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY...IT
WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A QUICK MOVING
UPPER WAVE MOVING SE OVER AR. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED MON INTO MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TUE INTO WED AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ERODE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
LIQUID FORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SWITCH OVER PERIOD JUST BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS TUE NIGHT. AS
STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  35  42  32 /  20  10  50  40
CAMDEN AR         47  42  47  37 /  40  30  80  60
HARRISON AR       42  34  41  31 /  30  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  40  45  34 /  30  20  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  39  45  35 /  30  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  37 /  40  20  80  80
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  45  33 /  20  20  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  41  31 /  30  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        40  35  42  32 /  20  10  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     45  39  45  36 /  30  20  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  45  34 /  20  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         44  35  43  33 /  20  10  60  60
STUTTGART AR      43  38  45  35 /  30  10  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 181100 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MUCH OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS UNDER THIS RAINFALL HAVE RANGED FROM MVFR TO AS LOW AS
LIFR IN SOME SPOTS. BEHIND THE EXITING RAINFALL...AREAS OF DZ AND
LOW CIGS WILL BE SEEN...WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME IMPROVEMENTS MAY BE SEEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT MOST
TERMINALS. SOME FOG AND DZ WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRI...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT CONDITION IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED UNTIL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

RAIN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS
OF SLEET MIXED IN IN THE WEST...NORTH AND CENTRAL. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE
FOR IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTH. NO APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS.

LATE TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SEND
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
UPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN AS WELL. WITH THIS...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN IN AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY MORNING.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST A MIX WITH
OR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SLEET IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY WEST BEFORE
ENDING. HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...BUT BY LATE SUNDAY...IT
WILL MOVE EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH A QUICK MOVING
UPPER WAVE MOVING SE OVER AR. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED MON INTO MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEN TUE INTO WED AS
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL
ERODE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LOW FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BEFORE THE
COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...KEEP PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE
LIQUID FORM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SWITCH OVER PERIOD JUST BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS TUE NIGHT. AS
STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON WHEN THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AND WHEN THE MOISTURE WILL EXIT.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE COMING
DAYS...AND SO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  35  42  32 /  20  10  50  40
CAMDEN AR         47  42  47  37 /  40  30  80  60
HARRISON AR       42  34  41  31 /  30  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    45  40  45  34 /  30  20  70  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  39  45  35 /  30  20  70  60
MONTICELLO AR     47  41  47  37 /  40  20  80  80
MOUNT IDA AR      44  38  45  33 /  20  20  70  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  35  41  31 /  30  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        40  35  42  32 /  20  10  60  40
PINE BLUFF AR     45  39  45  36 /  30  20  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  39  45  34 /  20  20  50  40
SEARCY AR         44  35  43  33 /  20  10  60  60
STUTTGART AR      43  38  45  35 /  30  10  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities