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000
FXUS64 KLZK 041143 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
543 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTER PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAFS AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL
TAFS AROUND 21Z...AND SOUTHERN TAFS AFTER 05/00Z. AFTER -RA THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA BEFORE CHANGING TO
PL...AND THEN SN. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 05/06Z ACROSS THE NORTH. NORTH WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
COLDER AIR IS COMING...BUT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE LATEST DATA.
GIVEN THIS...TRENDED RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LATER IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
RAIN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ARRIVE IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
THURSDAY...MUCH OF WHAT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE SNOW.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SLEET WITH
SOME SNOW TO FINISH THE EVENT. IN THE SOUTH...IT WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...AND A LITTLE SNOW AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE SIX INCHES PLUS IS POSSIBLE. FOUR TO SIX INCHES
WILL BE COMMON IN THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES CENTRAL AND
A HALF INCH UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN A
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...THE POLAR JET IS DRIVING THE FRONT/COLD AIR...
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROVIDING THE MOISTURE. WHEN BOTH JETS
ARE WORKING IN TANDEM...THAT OFTEN RESULTS IN WINTER STORMS LIKE
THIS.

BESIDES THE WINTRY MIX...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. GIVEN
HEAVY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/ICE...GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME
POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY/TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE DELTA REGION.

ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS WILL WARM ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE INHIBITED BY SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER READINGS FOR SATURDAY...WITH READINGS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AS A COASTAL
LOW MOVES EAST. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
50S...AND WHILE IT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...IT IS BETTER THAN THE
SLEET/SNOW IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 041143 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
543 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTER PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAFS AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL
TAFS AROUND 21Z...AND SOUTHERN TAFS AFTER 05/00Z. AFTER -RA THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA BEFORE CHANGING TO
PL...AND THEN SN. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 05/06Z ACROSS THE NORTH. NORTH WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
COLDER AIR IS COMING...BUT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE LATEST DATA.
GIVEN THIS...TRENDED RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LATER IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
RAIN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ARRIVE IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
THURSDAY...MUCH OF WHAT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE SNOW.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SLEET WITH
SOME SNOW TO FINISH THE EVENT. IN THE SOUTH...IT WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...AND A LITTLE SNOW AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE SIX INCHES PLUS IS POSSIBLE. FOUR TO SIX INCHES
WILL BE COMMON IN THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES CENTRAL AND
A HALF INCH UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN A
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...THE POLAR JET IS DRIVING THE FRONT/COLD AIR...
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROVIDING THE MOISTURE. WHEN BOTH JETS
ARE WORKING IN TANDEM...THAT OFTEN RESULTS IN WINTER STORMS LIKE
THIS.

BESIDES THE WINTRY MIX...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. GIVEN
HEAVY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/ICE...GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME
POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY/TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE DELTA REGION.

ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS WILL WARM ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE INHIBITED BY SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER READINGS FOR SATURDAY...WITH READINGS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AS A COASTAL
LOW MOVES EAST. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
50S...AND WHILE IT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...IT IS BETTER THAN THE
SLEET/SNOW IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 041143 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
543 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTER PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAFS AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL
TAFS AROUND 21Z...AND SOUTHERN TAFS AFTER 05/00Z. AFTER -RA THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA BEFORE CHANGING TO
PL...AND THEN SN. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 05/06Z ACROSS THE NORTH. NORTH WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
COLDER AIR IS COMING...BUT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE LATEST DATA.
GIVEN THIS...TRENDED RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LATER IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
RAIN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ARRIVE IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
THURSDAY...MUCH OF WHAT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE SNOW.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SLEET WITH
SOME SNOW TO FINISH THE EVENT. IN THE SOUTH...IT WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...AND A LITTLE SNOW AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE SIX INCHES PLUS IS POSSIBLE. FOUR TO SIX INCHES
WILL BE COMMON IN THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES CENTRAL AND
A HALF INCH UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN A
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...THE POLAR JET IS DRIVING THE FRONT/COLD AIR...
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROVIDING THE MOISTURE. WHEN BOTH JETS
ARE WORKING IN TANDEM...THAT OFTEN RESULTS IN WINTER STORMS LIKE
THIS.

BESIDES THE WINTRY MIX...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. GIVEN
HEAVY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/ICE...GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME
POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY/TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE DELTA REGION.

ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS WILL WARM ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE INHIBITED BY SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER READINGS FOR SATURDAY...WITH READINGS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AS A COASTAL
LOW MOVES EAST. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
50S...AND WHILE IT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...IT IS BETTER THAN THE
SLEET/SNOW IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 041143 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
543 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
WINTER PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TAFS AROUND 15Z...CENTRAL
TAFS AROUND 21Z...AND SOUTHERN TAFS AFTER 05/00Z. AFTER -RA THIS
MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA BEFORE CHANGING TO
PL...AND THEN SN. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 05/06Z ACROSS THE NORTH. NORTH WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
COLDER AIR IS COMING...BUT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE LATEST DATA.
GIVEN THIS...TRENDED RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LATER IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
RAIN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ARRIVE IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
THURSDAY...MUCH OF WHAT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE SNOW.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SLEET WITH
SOME SNOW TO FINISH THE EVENT. IN THE SOUTH...IT WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...AND A LITTLE SNOW AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE SIX INCHES PLUS IS POSSIBLE. FOUR TO SIX INCHES
WILL BE COMMON IN THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES CENTRAL AND
A HALF INCH UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN A
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...THE POLAR JET IS DRIVING THE FRONT/COLD AIR...
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROVIDING THE MOISTURE. WHEN BOTH JETS
ARE WORKING IN TANDEM...THAT OFTEN RESULTS IN WINTER STORMS LIKE
THIS.

BESIDES THE WINTRY MIX...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. GIVEN
HEAVY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/ICE...GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME
POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY/TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE DELTA REGION.

ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS WILL WARM ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE INHIBITED BY SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER READINGS FOR SATURDAY...WITH READINGS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AS A COASTAL
LOW MOVES EAST. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
50S...AND WHILE IT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...IT IS BETTER THAN THE
SLEET/SNOW IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 041140
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
540 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
COLDER AIR IS COMING...BUT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE LATEST DATA.
GIVEN THIS...TRENDED RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LATER IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
RAIN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ARRIVE IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
THURSDAY...MUCH OF WHAT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE SNOW.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SLEET WITH
SOME SNOW TO FINISH THE EVENT. IN THE SOUTH...IT WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...AND A LITTLE SNOW AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE SIX INCHES PLUS IS POSSIBLE. FOUR TO SIX INCHES
WILL BE COMMON IN THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES CENTRAL AND
A HALF INCH UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN A
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...THE POLAR JET IS DRIVING THE FRONT/COLD AIR...
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROVIDING THE MOISTURE. WHEN BOTH JETS
ARE WORKING IN TANDEM...THAT OFTEN RESULTS IN WINTER STORMS LIKE
THIS.

BESIDES THE WINTRY MIX...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. GIVEN
HEAVY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/ICE...GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME
POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY/TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE DELTA REGION.

ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS WILL WARM ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE INHIBITED BY SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER READINGS FOR SATURDAY...WITH READINGS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AS A COASTAL
LOW MOVES EAST. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
50S...AND WHILE IT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...IT IS BETTER THAN THE
SLEET/SNOW IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  20  29  10 / 100 100  20  10
CAMDEN AR         57  25  35  17 / 100 100  30  10
HARRISON AR       34  16  29  13 / 100  80  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    51  24  34  15 / 100 100  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  23  31  14 / 100 100  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  25  31  15 / 100 100  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  23  34  15 / 100 100  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  15  30  12 / 100  80  10  10
NEWPORT AR        41  21  26   9 / 100 100  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     54  24  30  14 / 100 100  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  21  33  16 / 100 100  10  10
SEARCY AR         46  21  29  10 / 100 100  20  10
STUTTGART AR      50  23  29  13 / 100 100  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 041140
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
540 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
COLDER AIR IS COMING...BUT JUST A LITTLE SLOWER IN THE LATEST DATA.
GIVEN THIS...TRENDED RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX A BIT LATER IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET IN THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
RAIN IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING. SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT ARRIVE IN THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS EVENING.

BY THE TIME WE GET INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY
THURSDAY...MUCH OF WHAT FALLS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE SNOW.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SLEET WITH
SOME SNOW TO FINISH THE EVENT. IN THE SOUTH...IT WILL BE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...AND A LITTLE SNOW AS PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE SIX INCHES PLUS IS POSSIBLE. FOUR TO SIX INCHES
WILL BE COMMON IN THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR INCHES CENTRAL AND
A HALF INCH UP TO TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTH.

ALL OF THIS IS POSSIBLE BECAUSE THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN A
SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...THE POLAR JET IS DRIVING THE FRONT/COLD AIR...
AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS PROVIDING THE MOISTURE. WHEN BOTH JETS
ARE WORKING IN TANDEM...THAT OFTEN RESULTS IN WINTER STORMS LIKE
THIS.

BESIDES THE WINTRY MIX...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. GIVEN
HEAVY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW/ICE...GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY CAUSE SOME
POWER OUTAGES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY/TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE DELTA REGION.

ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

OTHER THAN SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING...CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WAY BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. HIGHS WILL WARM ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE INHIBITED BY SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BRING WARMER READINGS FOR SATURDAY...WITH READINGS CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EAST.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GULF MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AS A COASTAL
LOW MOVES EAST. HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...AS MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE
STAYING SOUTH OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
50S...AND WHILE IT IS STILL BELOW NORMAL...IT IS BETTER THAN THE
SLEET/SNOW IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  20  29  10 / 100 100  20  10
CAMDEN AR         57  25  35  17 / 100 100  30  10
HARRISON AR       34  16  29  13 / 100  80  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    51  24  34  15 / 100 100  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  23  31  14 / 100 100  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  25  31  15 / 100 100  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  23  34  15 / 100 100  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  15  30  12 / 100  80  10  10
NEWPORT AR        41  21  26   9 / 100 100  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     54  24  30  14 / 100 100  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  21  33  16 / 100 100  10  10
SEARCY AR         46  21  29  10 / 100 100  20  10
STUTTGART AR      50  23  29  13 / 100 100  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 040544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. DENSE FOG IS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
MILE IS REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE WILL SEE RAIN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF
ARKANSAS WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO LAG SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE
BEHIND. TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS QUITE APPARENT WITH READINGS IN
CENTRAL IOWA ALREADY DOWN IN THE TEEMS WHILE NORTHERN ARKANSAS
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS A QUARTER MILE ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN MANY AREAS.

NOT REAL VALUE ADDED CHANGES WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS EVENING WITH
CURRENT WARNINGS...TIMING CONCERNS...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS LOOKING SPOT ON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 040544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. DENSE FOG IS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
MILE IS REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE WILL SEE RAIN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF
ARKANSAS WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO LAG SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE
BEHIND. TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS QUITE APPARENT WITH READINGS IN
CENTRAL IOWA ALREADY DOWN IN THE TEEMS WHILE NORTHERN ARKANSAS
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS A QUARTER MILE ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN MANY AREAS.

NOT REAL VALUE ADDED CHANGES WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS EVENING WITH
CURRENT WARNINGS...TIMING CONCERNS...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS LOOKING SPOT ON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 040544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. DENSE FOG IS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
MILE IS REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE WILL SEE RAIN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF
ARKANSAS WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO LAG SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE
BEHIND. TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS QUITE APPARENT WITH READINGS IN
CENTRAL IOWA ALREADY DOWN IN THE TEEMS WHILE NORTHERN ARKANSAS
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS A QUARTER MILE ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN MANY AREAS.

NOT REAL VALUE ADDED CHANGES WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS EVENING WITH
CURRENT WARNINGS...TIMING CONCERNS...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS LOOKING SPOT ON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 040544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. DENSE FOG IS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
MILE IS REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE WILL SEE RAIN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF
ARKANSAS WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO LAG SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE
BEHIND. TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS QUITE APPARENT WITH READINGS IN
CENTRAL IOWA ALREADY DOWN IN THE TEEMS WHILE NORTHERN ARKANSAS
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS A QUARTER MILE ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN MANY AREAS.

NOT REAL VALUE ADDED CHANGES WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS EVENING WITH
CURRENT WARNINGS...TIMING CONCERNS...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS LOOKING SPOT ON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 040158
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
758 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF
ARKANSAS WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO LAG SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE
BEHIND. TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS QUITE APPARENT WITH READINGS IN
CENTRAL IOWA ALREADY DOWN IN THE TEEMS WHILE NORTHERN ARKANSAS
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS A QUARTER MILE ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN MANY AREAS.

NOT REAL VALUE ADDED CHANGES WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS EVENING WITH
CURRENT WARNINGS...TIMING CONCERNS...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS LOOKING SPOT ON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONCE COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL
CHANGE THE RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALSO AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN AT LLQ. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
.SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  37  17  29 /  80 100 100  10
CAMDEN AR         56  58  25  35 /  70 100 100  10
HARRISON AR       29  30  12  29 /  80 100  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  50  22  34 /  80 100 100  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  48  21  31 /  80 100 100  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  59  24  31 /  50 100 100  20
MOUNT IDA AR      46  48  21  34 /  80 100 100  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  32  14  30 /  80 100  80  10
NEWPORT AR        36  38  18  26 /  80 100 100  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  54  22  30 /  70 100 100  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  43  19  33 /  80 100  90  10
SEARCY AR         42  44  19  29 /  80 100 100  10
STUTTGART AR      45  47  21  29 /  80 100 100  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 032349
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONCE COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL
CHANGE THE RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALSO AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN AT LLQ. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
..SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  37  17  29 /  80 100 100  10
CAMDEN AR         56  58  25  35 /  70 100 100  10
HARRISON AR       29  30  12  29 /  80 100  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  50  22  34 /  80 100 100  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  48  21  31 /  80 100 100  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  59  24  31 /  50 100 100  20
MOUNT IDA AR      46  48  21  34 /  80 100 100  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  32  14  30 /  80 100  80  10
NEWPORT AR        36  38  18  26 /  80 100 100  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  54  22  30 /  70 100 100  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  43  19  33 /  80 100  90  10
SEARCY AR         42  44  19  29 /  80 100 100  10
STUTTGART AR      45  47  21  29 /  80 100 100  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 032349
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONCE COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL
CHANGE THE RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALSO AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN AT LLQ. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
..SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  37  17  29 /  80 100 100  10
CAMDEN AR         56  58  25  35 /  70 100 100  10
HARRISON AR       29  30  12  29 /  80 100  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  50  22  34 /  80 100 100  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  48  21  31 /  80 100 100  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  59  24  31 /  50 100 100  20
MOUNT IDA AR      46  48  21  34 /  80 100 100  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  32  14  30 /  80 100  80  10
NEWPORT AR        36  38  18  26 /  80 100 100  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  54  22  30 /  70 100 100  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  43  19  33 /  80 100  90  10
SEARCY AR         42  44  19  29 /  80 100 100  10
STUTTGART AR      45  47  21  29 /  80 100 100  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 032349
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONCE COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL
CHANGE THE RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALSO AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN AT LLQ. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
..SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  37  17  29 /  80 100 100  10
CAMDEN AR         56  58  25  35 /  70 100 100  10
HARRISON AR       29  30  12  29 /  80 100  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  50  22  34 /  80 100 100  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  48  21  31 /  80 100 100  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  59  24  31 /  50 100 100  20
MOUNT IDA AR      46  48  21  34 /  80 100 100  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  32  14  30 /  80 100  80  10
NEWPORT AR        36  38  18  26 /  80 100 100  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  54  22  30 /  70 100 100  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  43  19  33 /  80 100  90  10
SEARCY AR         42  44  19  29 /  80 100 100  10
STUTTGART AR      45  47  21  29 /  80 100 100  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 032349
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. ONCE COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL
CHANGE THE RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
FOG IS DEVELOPING ALSO AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN AT LLQ. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
..SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  37  17  29 /  80 100 100  10
CAMDEN AR         56  58  25  35 /  70 100 100  10
HARRISON AR       29  30  12  29 /  80 100  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  50  22  34 /  80 100 100  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  48  21  31 /  80 100 100  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  59  24  31 /  50 100 100  20
MOUNT IDA AR      46  48  21  34 /  80 100 100  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  32  14  30 /  80 100  80  10
NEWPORT AR        36  38  18  26 /  80 100 100  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  54  22  30 /  70 100 100  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  43  19  33 /  80 100  90  10
SEARCY AR         42  44  19  29 /  80 100 100  10
STUTTGART AR      45  47  21  29 /  80 100 100  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 032117
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
...SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     35  37  17  29 /  80 100 100  10
CAMDEN AR         56  58  25  35 /  70 100 100  10
HARRISON AR       29  30  12  29 /  80 100  70  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    48  50  22  34 /  80 100 100  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  46  48  21  31 /  80 100 100  10
MONTICELLO AR     58  59  24  31 /  50 100 100  20
MOUNT IDA AR      46  48  21  34 /  80 100 100  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  32  14  30 /  80 100  80  10
NEWPORT AR        36  38  18  26 /  80 100 100  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  54  22  30 /  70 100 100  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  43  19  33 /  80 100  90  10
SEARCY AR         42  44  19  29 /  80 100 100  10
STUTTGART AR      45  47  21  29 /  80 100 100  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...59










000
FXUS64 KLZK 031802 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1200 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN AR. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MORE
MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. IN THE NORTH...MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS WITH PATCHY VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT...
OVERALL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF
IFR...INCREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BE GUSTY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN SLEET TO
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...AND ALSO TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME.

MANY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE STILL
REPORTING VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN A MILE AND SEVERAL OF THOSE ARE
SHOWING 1/4 MILE OR LESS. SINCE THERE IS NO MARKED INCREASE IN
WINDS...NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES...EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TO PROMOTE ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE...THESE LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE. AS SUCH WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS. BY THEN EVEN THE MODEST SURFACE HEATING THAT WE ARE GETTING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIFT VISIBILITY ABOVE A MILE IN MOST SPOTS.
WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND MIXING...ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
AREAS IN THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY
LOW 60S. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE GUIDANCE MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...SUCH AS
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NOTED AT MENA AND HARRISON. SO JUST ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TRENDS TO SHOW A SLOWER WARM UP AND WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         65  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       55  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      60  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     64  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         58  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      60  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

64









000
FXUS64 KLZK 031802 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1200 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF IFR REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN AR. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MORE
MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. IN THE NORTH...MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS WITH PATCHY VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT...
OVERALL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE SEEN WITH AREAS OF
IFR...INCREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BE GUSTY. LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN SLEET TO
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...AND ALSO TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME.

MANY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE STILL
REPORTING VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN A MILE AND SEVERAL OF THOSE ARE
SHOWING 1/4 MILE OR LESS. SINCE THERE IS NO MARKED INCREASE IN
WINDS...NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES...EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TO PROMOTE ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE...THESE LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE. AS SUCH WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS. BY THEN EVEN THE MODEST SURFACE HEATING THAT WE ARE GETTING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIFT VISIBILITY ABOVE A MILE IN MOST SPOTS.
WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND MIXING...ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
AREAS IN THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY
LOW 60S. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE GUIDANCE MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...SUCH AS
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NOTED AT MENA AND HARRISON. SO JUST ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TRENDS TO SHOW A SLOWER WARM UP AND WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         65  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       55  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      60  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     64  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         58  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      60  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

64










000
FXUS64 KLZK 031531 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
931 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...AND ALSO TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME.

MANY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE STILL
REPORTING VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN A MILE AND SEVERAL OF THOSE ARE
SHOWING 1/4 MILE OR LESS. SINCE THERE IS NO MARKED INCREASE IN
WINDS...NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES...EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TO PROMOTE ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE...THESE LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE. AS SUCH WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS. BY THEN EVEN THE MODEST SURFACE HEATING THAT WE ARE GETTING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIFT VISIBILITY ABOVE A MILE IN MOST SPOTS.
WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND MIXING...ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
AREAS IN THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY
LOW 60S. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE GUIDANCE MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...SUCH AS
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NOTED AT MENA AND HARRISON. SO JUST ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TRENDS TO SHOW A SLOWER WARM UP AND WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INTERMITTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH. IT
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...
WITH -RAPLSN PREVAILING AT HRO AND BPK JUST BEFORE 12Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         65  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       55  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      60  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     64  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         58  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      60  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 031531 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
931 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...AND ALSO TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME.

MANY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE STILL
REPORTING VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN A MILE AND SEVERAL OF THOSE ARE
SHOWING 1/4 MILE OR LESS. SINCE THERE IS NO MARKED INCREASE IN
WINDS...NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES...EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TO PROMOTE ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE...THESE LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE. AS SUCH WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS. BY THEN EVEN THE MODEST SURFACE HEATING THAT WE ARE GETTING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIFT VISIBILITY ABOVE A MILE IN MOST SPOTS.
WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND MIXING...ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
AREAS IN THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY
LOW 60S. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE GUIDANCE MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...SUCH AS
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NOTED AT MENA AND HARRISON. SO JUST ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TRENDS TO SHOW A SLOWER WARM UP AND WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INTERMITTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH. IT
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...
WITH -RAPLSN PREVAILING AT HRO AND BPK JUST BEFORE 12Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         65  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       55  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      60  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     64  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         58  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      60  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 031531 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
931 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...AND ALSO TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME.

MANY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ARE STILL
REPORTING VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN A MILE AND SEVERAL OF THOSE ARE
SHOWING 1/4 MILE OR LESS. SINCE THERE IS NO MARKED INCREASE IN
WINDS...NOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES...EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TO PROMOTE ANY SIGNIFICANT MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE...THESE LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE. AS SUCH WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
HOURS. BY THEN EVEN THE MODEST SURFACE HEATING THAT WE ARE GETTING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIFT VISIBILITY ABOVE A MILE IN MOST SPOTS.
WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND MIXING...ALSO ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE DAY. MOST GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...AS WELL AS ELEVATED
AREAS IN THE NORTH...SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY
LOW 60S. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT THERE
ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE GUIDANCE MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING...SUCH AS
THE MID TO UPPER 40S NOTED AT MENA AND HARRISON. SO JUST ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY TRENDS TO SHOW A SLOWER WARM UP AND WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INTERMITTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH. IT
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...
WITH -RAPLSN PREVAILING AT HRO AND BPK JUST BEFORE 12Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         65  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       55  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    59  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      60  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     64  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         58  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      60  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 031139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
539 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INTERMITTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH. IT
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...
WITH -RAPLSN PREVAILING AT HRO AND BPK JUST BEFORE 12Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         66  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       58  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      61  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         59  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      61  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 031139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
539 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INTERMITTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH. IT
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...
WITH -RAPLSN PREVAILING AT HRO AND BPK JUST BEFORE 12Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         66  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       58  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      61  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         59  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      61  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 031139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
539 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INTERMITTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH. IT
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...
WITH -RAPLSN PREVAILING AT HRO AND BPK JUST BEFORE 12Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         66  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       58  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      61  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         59  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      61  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 031139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
539 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE INTERMITTENT...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NORTH. IT
WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING...
WITH -RAPLSN PREVAILING AT HRO AND BPK JUST BEFORE 12Z. TAFS
ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...

STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         66  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       58  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      61  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         59  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      61  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 031043
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&

.CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...


STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         66  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       58  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      61  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         59  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      61  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 031043
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
443 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

DENSE FOG HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 15Z.

WENT AND CUT BACK ON POPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...WITH
MOST MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH THE RETURN OF
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S STATEWIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAMP UP
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SLIGHTLY BEFORE 06Z.

BEHIND THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE THEIR WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH THIS STRONG
FRONT AND THE FORECAST STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...DID NOT FEEL
WISE TO USE MOS GUIDANCE. THIS TEMPERATURE CURVE RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. STILL...EXPECTING TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND 12Z IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z CENTRAL...AND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL TRENDS GO...THE 00Z TUESDAY NAM AND GFS
MODELS...SHOWED TEMPERATURES ALOFT MUCH SLOWER TO COOL...RESULTING
IN MUCH MORE SLEET THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE 00Z ECMWF DID NOT
FOLLOW SUIT REINFORCED PREVIOUS THINKING...THAT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SLEET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. WITH STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...DID NOT WANT TO HAVE A KNEE JERK
REACTION AND FULLY COMMIT TO MOSTLY SLEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. USING A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS FOR
QPF...THE RESULTANT FORECAST HAS FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH TWO TO FOUR ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND ONE TO THREE IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET...THAN SNOW. IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DO
EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TOTALS...DID ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS FORECAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
LIKELY COMPOUND ANY PROBLEMS DUE TO ICING WITH SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.


&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY...BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
CLOSE TO OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING. THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MAYBE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS WOULD MEAN AT LEAST
DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE COULD BE A FEW PLACES THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&

.CLIMATE...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION...DAILY RECORD LOWS ON MARCH
6TH WILL LIKELY BE IN JEOPARDY. HERE/S A LIST OF SOME...

 STATION             RECORD LOW 3/6
 MOUNTAIN HOME          9 1920
 BRINKLEY              10 1899
 CALICO ROCK           11 1978
 CONWAY                11 1901
 HARDY                 12 1901
 NEWPORT               14 1901
 GILBERT               16 1980
 MENA                  17 1899
 MOUNT IDA             17 1920
 RUSSELLVILLE          17 1901
 BATESVILLE AIRPORT    18 1943
 MONTICELLO            18 1978
 STUTTGART             18 1960
 BOONEVILLE            19 1989
 LITTLE ROCK           19 1899
 PINE BLUFF            19 1920
 ARKADELPHIA           20 1943
 SHERIDAN              20 1962
 CAMDEN                21 1899
 SEARCY                22 2014
 NORTH LITTLE ROCK     24 1989
 JACKSONVILLE          26 1966
 STAR CITY             26 2014

THERE WILL LIKELY SOME LOCATIONS THAT COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR MARCH. THOSE ARE LISTED BELOW...


STATION               ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD LOW
CONWAY                     9 03/03/1943
BRINKLEY                  10 03/06/1899
LITTLE ROCK               11 03/03/1943
MONTICELLO                11 03/03/1980
PINE BLUFF                11 03/09/1932
JACKSONVILLE              12 03/09/1996
NORTH LITTLE ROCK         14 03/03/2014
STAR CIY                  16 03/03/1980

THIS SEVERE COLD OUTBREAK...WHILE CERTAINLY NOTEABLE...DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD...OR AS PROLONGED AS THE ONE AT THE
BEGINNING OF LAST MARCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  40  40  15 /  30  70  90  60
CAMDEN AR         66  60  60  24 /  30  40  90  80
HARRISON AR       58  30  30  10 /  30  50  90  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  50  50  21 /  30  70  90  80
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  49  49  20 /  30  70  90  70
MONTICELLO AR     66  61  61  23 /  30  30  90  80
MOUNT IDA AR      61  48  48  20 /  30  70  90  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  58  32  32  11 /  30  50  90  50
NEWPORT AR        58  41  41  17 /  30  70  90  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  56  56  21 /  30  50  90  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  43  43  16 /  30  60  90  60
SEARCY AR         59  45  45  18 /  30  80  90  60
STUTTGART AR      61  49  49  20 /  30  70 100  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.


WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 030533
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH WIND AT KHRO TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE DURING THE PERIOD
WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION MORE
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SOUTH. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH LATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY...STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. ALSO...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE WARMER AIR
MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO THE MORNING.
NO PRECIPITATION ON RADAR...SO LOWERED POPS...BUT INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 030533
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH WIND AT KHRO TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE DURING THE PERIOD
WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION MORE
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SOUTH. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH LATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY...STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. ALSO...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE WARMER AIR
MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO THE MORNING.
NO PRECIPITATION ON RADAR...SO LOWERED POPS...BUT INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56





000
FXUS64 KLZK 030533
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1133 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH WIND AT KHRO TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE DURING THE PERIOD
WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY CENTRAL AND NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION MORE
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS SOUTH. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH LATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY...STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. ALSO...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE WARMER AIR
MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO THE MORNING.
NO PRECIPITATION ON RADAR...SO LOWERED POPS...BUT INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 030253
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
853 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY...STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. ALSO...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE WARMER AIR
MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO THE MORNING.
NO PRECIPITATION ON RADAR...SO LOWERED POPS...BUT INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. TEMPO GROUP FOR RAIN WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING PREVELANT AFTER THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     34  57  35  36 /  30  70  70  90
CAMDEN AR         36  66  57  57 /  30  50  80  90
HARRISON AR       34  56  26  27 /  30  60  50  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  61  47  47 /  30  60  70  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  62  45  45 /  30  60  80  90
MONTICELLO AR     37  66  58  58 /  30  50  80 100
MOUNT IDA AR      36  60  45  45 /  30  70  70  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  56  29  30 /  30  60  50  80
NEWPORT AR        34  59  36  37 /  30  70  70  90
PINE BLUFF AR     35  64  53  53 /  30  60  80  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  57  40  40 /  30  70  60  90
SEARCY AR         34  60  40  40 /  30  70  80  90
STUTTGART AR      36  61  44  45 /  30  60  80  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 030253
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
853 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY...STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS. ALSO...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE WARMER AIR
MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY INTO THE MORNING.
NO PRECIPITATION ON RADAR...SO LOWERED POPS...BUT INCREASING LATE
TONIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. TEMPO GROUP FOR RAIN WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING PREVELANT AFTER THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     34  57  35  36 /  30  70  70  90
CAMDEN AR         36  66  57  57 /  30  50  80  90
HARRISON AR       34  56  26  27 /  30  60  50  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  61  47  47 /  30  60  70  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  62  45  45 /  30  60  80  90
MONTICELLO AR     37  66  58  58 /  30  50  80 100
MOUNT IDA AR      36  60  45  45 /  30  70  70  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  33  56  29  30 /  30  60  50  80
NEWPORT AR        34  59  36  37 /  30  70  70  90
PINE BLUFF AR     35  64  53  53 /  30  60  80  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   36  57  40  40 /  30  70  60  90
SEARCY AR         34  60  40  40 /  30  70  80  90
STUTTGART AR      36  61  44  45 /  30  60  80  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 030000
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. TEMPO GROUP FOR RAIN WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING PREVELANT AFTER THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  57  35  36 /  30  70  70  90
CAMDEN AR         40  66  57  57 /  30  50  80  90
HARRISON AR       35  56  26  27 /  30  60  50  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  61  47  47 /  30  60  70  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  38  62  45  45 /  30  60  80  90
MONTICELLO AR     40  66  58  58 /  40  50  80 100
MOUNT IDA AR      38  60  45  45 /  30  70  70  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  56  29  30 /  30  60  50  80
NEWPORT AR        38  59  36  37 /  30  70  70  90
PINE BLUFF AR     38  64  53  53 /  30  60  80  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  57  40  40 /  30  70  60  90
SEARCY AR         37  60  40  40 /  30  70  80  90
STUTTGART AR      37  61  44  45 /  30  60  80  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...56









000
FXUS64 KLZK 030000
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. TEMPO GROUP FOR RAIN WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING PREVELANT AFTER THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  57  35  36 /  30  70  70  90
CAMDEN AR         40  66  57  57 /  30  50  80  90
HARRISON AR       35  56  26  27 /  30  60  50  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  61  47  47 /  30  60  70  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  38  62  45  45 /  30  60  80  90
MONTICELLO AR     40  66  58  58 /  40  50  80 100
MOUNT IDA AR      38  60  45  45 /  30  70  70  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  56  29  30 /  30  60  50  80
NEWPORT AR        38  59  36  37 /  30  70  70  90
PINE BLUFF AR     38  64  53  53 /  30  60  80  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  57  40  40 /  30  70  60  90
SEARCY AR         37  60  40  40 /  30  70  80  90
STUTTGART AR      37  61  44  45 /  30  60  80  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 030000
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. TEMPO GROUP FOR RAIN WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING PREVELANT AFTER THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  57  35  36 /  30  70  70  90
CAMDEN AR         40  66  57  57 /  30  50  80  90
HARRISON AR       35  56  26  27 /  30  60  50  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  61  47  47 /  30  60  70  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  38  62  45  45 /  30  60  80  90
MONTICELLO AR     40  66  58  58 /  40  50  80 100
MOUNT IDA AR      38  60  45  45 /  30  70  70  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  56  29  30 /  30  60  50  80
NEWPORT AR        38  59  36  37 /  30  70  70  90
PINE BLUFF AR     38  64  53  53 /  30  60  80  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  57  40  40 /  30  70  60  90
SEARCY AR         37  60  40  40 /  30  70  80  90
STUTTGART AR      37  61  44  45 /  30  60  80  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...56









000
FXUS64 KLZK 030000
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER. TEMPO GROUP FOR RAIN WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING PREVELANT AFTER THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     37  57  35  36 /  30  70  70  90
CAMDEN AR         40  66  57  57 /  30  50  80  90
HARRISON AR       35  56  26  27 /  30  60  50  80
HOT SPRINGS AR    38  61  47  47 /  30  60  70  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  38  62  45  45 /  30  60  80  90
MONTICELLO AR     40  66  58  58 /  40  50  80 100
MOUNT IDA AR      38  60  45  45 /  30  70  70  90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  35  56  29  30 /  30  60  50  80
NEWPORT AR        38  59  36  37 /  30  70  70  90
PINE BLUFF AR     38  64  53  53 /  30  60  80  90
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  57  40  40 /  30  70  60  90
SEARCY AR         37  60  40  40 /  30  70  80  90
STUTTGART AR      37  61  44  45 /  30  60  80  90
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$


AVIATION...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 022040
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  33 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  40  64  50 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  55  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  42 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  41 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  51 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  40 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  34  55  28 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  35 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  38  62  45 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  37 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  38 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  38  60  41 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 022040
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  33 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  40  64  50 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  55  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  42 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  41 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  51 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  40 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  34  55  28 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  35 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  38  62  45 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  37 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  38 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  38  60  41 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53







000
FXUS64 KLZK 022040
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  33 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  40  64  50 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  55  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  42 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  41 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  51 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  40 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  34  55  28 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  35 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  38  62  45 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  37 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  38 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  38  60  41 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53






000
FXUS64 KLZK 022040
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE MID WEEK SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WINTER WEATHER ACROSS AR...SHORT TERM CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES...THEN VERY COLD AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION WITH CONTINUED
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WAS UPDATED TO
ADD GENERAL SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS AND STARTS ON WEDNESDAY.

SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE RAIN HAD MOVED EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHED
EAST. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. UPPER
RIDGING WAS SEEN OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THIS WILL MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...BUT ONLY
FOR A DAY. TONIGHT TO TUESDAY...DO EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
OVER AR AND KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTED WARM FRONT TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD. SOME AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TEMPS TONIGHT WIL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THEN
THE LIQUID PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN. LATEST
SOUNDING DATA...CONFERENCE CALL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WITH
COODINATION WITH NCEP WINTER GROUP...HAVE ADD MORE FREEZING PRECIP
ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND MOST IN SOUTHERN AR. THE MAIN AREAS OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR. MODELS ARE COMING
TOGETHER AND SHOWING QPF VALUES OF 0.75 TO OVER AN INCH IN A 24
HOUR PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING SIGNFICANT AMOUNTS OF WINTER
WEATHER. AT THIS TIME...GENERAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TO NE AR. 1
TO 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN AR. ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND A TENTH
NORTH...A TENTH OF TWO CENTRAL...WHILE A FEW TENTHS TO AROUND A
QUARTER INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO 30S.
A BIT WARMER FRIDAY BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DURING THE EXTENDED TERM THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AS A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. DURING THE SHORT TERM THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE BRINGING SNOW TO US WILL SHEAR OFF FROM
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE REMAINS OF THE SHEARED OFF
TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM OF ARKANSAS AND WILL ULTIMATELY BE A KEY
FACTOR IN ANY WEATHER THAT AFFECTS THE AREA.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL WANT TO SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW AND HOLD IT
SOMWHAT STATIONARY ACROSS NWRN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BRING
IT EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY...TRANSITIONING IT INTO A SHORTWAVE
REACHING THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ECMWF AND CMC
ARE BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE AT KICKING THE LOW OUT AND BRINGING IT
EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME I AM GOING WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF THE CMC
AND ECMWF AND BRING JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT LOW...SO AS THE MODELS START TO HONE IN ON A
SOLUTION THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  33 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  40  64  50 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  55  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  42 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  41 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  51 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  40 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  34  55  28 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  35 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  38  62  45 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  37 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  38 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  38  60  41 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53







000
FXUS64 KLZK 021701 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1100 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MAINLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AR. SHORTWAVE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPS TONIGHT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS
FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY
FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR
FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND WINTER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN.
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY...AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ALL DEPEND ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 1-3, 2-4, 4 TO 6 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND ICING POTENTIAL WITH
LESS THAN A TENTH...A FEW TENTHS...TO SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY
REACHING A QUARTER OR HIGHER ICING AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WITH IN LATE MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE PREVALENT. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
8-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TAFS ALREADY
OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  35 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  37  65  51 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  56  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  43 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  42 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  53 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  41 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  33  55  30 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  36 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  37  62  46 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  39 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  39 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  36  59  42 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57









000
FXUS64 KLZK 021701 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1100 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST ON TRACK. CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MAINLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN AR. SHORTWAVE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPS TONIGHT REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THEREFORE ONLY RAIN IS
FORECAST. MOST UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY
FORECAST WITH RAIN STARTING...THEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR
FROM THE NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT...AND WINTER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN.
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE THE KEY...AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET ALL DEPEND ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. CURRENT WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 1-3, 2-4, 4 TO 6 INCH
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...AND ICING POTENTIAL WITH
LESS THAN A TENTH...A FEW TENTHS...TO SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY
REACHING A QUARTER OR HIGHER ICING AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...WILL UPDATE
FORECAST WITH IN LATE MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE PREVALENT. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
8-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TAFS ALREADY
OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  35 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  37  65  51 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  56  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  43 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  42 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  53 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  41 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  33  55  30 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  36 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  37  62  46 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  39 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  39 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  36  59  42 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57








000
FXUS64 KLZK 021125 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
525 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE PREVALENT. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
8-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TAFS ALREADY
OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  35 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  37  65  51 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  56  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  43 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  42 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  53 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  41 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  33  55  30 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  36 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  37  62  46 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  39 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  39 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  36  59  42 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 021125 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
525 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DETERIORATING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE PREVALENT. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND
8-10 KNOTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. TAFS ALREADY
OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  35 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  37  65  51 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  56  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  43 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  42 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  53 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  41 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  33  55  30 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  36 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  37  62  46 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  39 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  39 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  36  59  42 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 021023
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  35 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  37  65  51 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  56  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  43 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  42 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  53 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  41 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  33  55  30 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  36 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  37  62  46 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  39 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  39 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  36  59  42 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 021023
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  35 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  37  65  51 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  56  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  43 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  42 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  53 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  41 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  33  55  30 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  36 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  37  62  46 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  39 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  39 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  36  59  42 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 021023
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  35 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  37  65  51 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  56  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  43 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  42 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  53 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  41 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  33  55  30 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  36 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  37  62  46 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  39 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  39 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  36  59  42 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 021023
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
423 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WRF AND HRRR AGREE WITH PRECIP INCREASING IN AREA
THROUGH 18Z ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANYTHING AT ALL. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIP DOES FALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN. WENT WITH LOW POPS
AND NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH NO
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE SMALL. AS A RESULT WENT
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND BROUGHT A RETURN OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...POPS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER MODELS AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. DID TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AS A RESULT IT DOES NOT APPEAR ANYWHERE IN
THE STATE WILL TOP 70 DEGREES.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER WILL BE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH AND MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE INITIAL TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
MODELS STRUGGLING TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR THERE WILL BE
ALOFT. ECMWF AND NAM HAVE A LARGER WARM NOSE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
GFS. FOR THIS FORECAST DID TREND THE FRONTAL TIMING...AND SFC
TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH THE ECMWF...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN WHEN LOOKING AT
BOTH GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL TOTAL PLUMES. THE MEANS LINE UP
WELL WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS DECENT GROUPING
WITH SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS THAT ARE WELL ABOVE THE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED IN
THE COMING FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND SHOULD LARGELY BE CLEAR OF THE REGION BY
12Z THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN FRIGHTENINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY REACH
THE 30S...AND IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AREAS WITH THE THICKEST SNOW
PACK WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE TEENS. THERE
MAY EVEN BE A FEW PLACES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS ALSO QUITE
LIKELY THAT FRIDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF
DAILY RECORD LOWS IN A FEW PLACES.

THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WINDS
TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...READINGS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     40  34  55  35 /  20  30  70  70
CAMDEN AR         41  37  65  51 /  50  30  50  80
HARRISON AR       40  34  56  27 /  10  30  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  37  59  43 /  50  30  60  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  39  35  59  42 /  40  30  60  80
MONTICELLO AR     43  40  65  53 /  50  40  50  80
MOUNT IDA AR      39  37  58  41 /  50  30  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  40  33  55  30 /  10  30  60  50
NEWPORT AR        41  36  56  36 /  20  30  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     39  37  62  46 /  50  30  60  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   41  35  56  39 /  30  30  70  60
SEARCY AR         38  35  57  39 /  30  30  70  80
STUTTGART AR      39  36  59  42 /  50  30  60  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-
NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 020514
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1114 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE STATE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY MONDAY AND WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT AND
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH SUCH AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR
OVERNIGHT...AS THEY SHOULD NOT ERODE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56/57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 020514
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1114 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE STATE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY MONDAY AND WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT AND
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH SUCH AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR
OVERNIGHT...AS THEY SHOULD NOT ERODE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56/57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 020514
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1114 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE STATE WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY MONDAY AND WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT AND
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH SUCH AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR
OVERNIGHT...AS THEY SHOULD NOT ERODE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...56/57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 020321
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
921 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT AND
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH SUCH AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR
OVERNIGHT...AS THEY SHOULD NOT ERODE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY LIFT BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST
AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTERWARDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  42  36  60 /  20  20  30  70
CAMDEN AR         38  43  40  69 /  60  50  40  50
HARRISON AR       25  40  36  58 /  10  10  30  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  42  39  63 /  50  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  41  38  65 /  50  40  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     38  43  41  69 /  70  50  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      34  42  39  62 /  40  40  40  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  41  35  59 /  10  10  30  60
NEWPORT AR        32  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
PINE BLUFF AR     36  41  39  67 /  60  50  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
SEARCY AR         33  41  38  63 /  40  20  40  70
STUTTGART AR      35  41  38  66 /  50  40  40  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 020321
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
921 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT AND
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH SUCH AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR
OVERNIGHT...AS THEY SHOULD NOT ERODE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY LIFT BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST
AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTERWARDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  42  36  60 /  20  20  30  70
CAMDEN AR         38  43  40  69 /  60  50  40  50
HARRISON AR       25  40  36  58 /  10  10  30  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  42  39  63 /  50  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  41  38  65 /  50  40  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     38  43  41  69 /  70  50  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      34  42  39  62 /  40  40  40  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  41  35  59 /  10  10  30  60
NEWPORT AR        32  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
PINE BLUFF AR     36  41  39  67 /  60  50  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
SEARCY AR         33  41  38  63 /  40  20  40  70
STUTTGART AR      35  41  38  66 /  50  40  40  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 020321
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
921 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT AND
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH SUCH AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR
OVERNIGHT...AS THEY SHOULD NOT ERODE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY LIFT BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST
AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTERWARDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  42  36  60 /  20  20  30  70
CAMDEN AR         38  43  40  69 /  60  50  40  50
HARRISON AR       25  40  36  58 /  10  10  30  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  42  39  63 /  50  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  41  38  65 /  50  40  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     38  43  41  69 /  70  50  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      34  42  39  62 /  40  40  40  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  41  35  59 /  10  10  30  60
NEWPORT AR        32  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
PINE BLUFF AR     36  41  39  67 /  60  50  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
SEARCY AR         33  41  38  63 /  40  20  40  70
STUTTGART AR      35  41  38  66 /  50  40  40  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 020321
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
921 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS ARKANSAS. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. WILL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR TONIGHT AND
VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTH. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH WITH SUCH AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR
OVERNIGHT...AS THEY SHOULD NOT ERODE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY LIFT BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST
AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTERWARDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  42  36  60 /  20  20  30  70
CAMDEN AR         38  43  40  69 /  60  50  40  50
HARRISON AR       25  40  36  58 /  10  10  30  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  42  39  63 /  50  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  41  38  65 /  50  40  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     38  43  41  69 /  70  50  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      34  42  39  62 /  40  40  40  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  41  35  59 /  10  10  30  60
NEWPORT AR        32  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
PINE BLUFF AR     36  41  39  67 /  60  50  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
SEARCY AR         33  41  38  63 /  40  20  40  70
STUTTGART AR      35  41  38  66 /  50  40  40  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 012348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY LIFT BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST
AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTERWARDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  42  36  60 /  20  20  30  70
CAMDEN AR         38  43  40  69 /  60  50  40  50
HARRISON AR       25  40  36  58 /  10  10  30  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  42  39  63 /  50  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  41  38  65 /  50  40  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     38  43  41  69 /  70  50  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      34  42  39  62 /  40  40  40  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  41  35  59 /  10  10  30  60
NEWPORT AR        32  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
PINE BLUFF AR     36  41  39  67 /  60  50  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
SEARCY AR         33  41  38  63 /  40  20  40  70
STUTTGART AR      35  41  38  66 /  50  40  40  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 012348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY LIFT BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST
AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTERWARDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  42  36  60 /  20  20  30  70
CAMDEN AR         38  43  40  69 /  60  50  40  50
HARRISON AR       25  40  36  58 /  10  10  30  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  42  39  63 /  50  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  41  38  65 /  50  40  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     38  43  41  69 /  70  50  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      34  42  39  62 /  40  40  40  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  41  35  59 /  10  10  30  60
NEWPORT AR        32  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
PINE BLUFF AR     36  41  39  67 /  60  50  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
SEARCY AR         33  41  38  63 /  40  20  40  70
STUTTGART AR      35  41  38  66 /  50  40  40  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 012348
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
548 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY LIFT BRIEFLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO PERSIST
AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL
PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTERWARDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  42  36  60 /  20  20  30  70
CAMDEN AR         38  43  40  69 /  60  50  40  50
HARRISON AR       25  40  36  58 /  10  10  30  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    35  42  39  63 /  50  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  35  41  38  65 /  50  40  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     38  43  41  69 /  70  50  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      34  42  39  62 /  40  40  40  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  26  41  35  59 /  10  10  30  60
NEWPORT AR        32  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
PINE BLUFF AR     36  41  39  67 /  60  50  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   34  43  38  61 /  30  20  40  70
SEARCY AR         33  41  38  63 /  40  20  40  70
STUTTGART AR      35  41  38  66 /  50  40  40  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 012159
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.
&&


.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 012159
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
359 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 30S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS FREEZING FOG. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR
FOR HEADLINES...BUT ANY OCCURRENCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED
MENTIONS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
ALL AREAS SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 40. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY STEADY.

SPRING WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH ENERGY TO BRING
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MARKEDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
READINGS BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE FALLING DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE STILL MANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS WINTER EVENT...AND WENT
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. IF MOISTURE STAYS HIGH BEHIND THE
FRONT...FROZEN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
ALSO...GUIDANCE HAS DIFFERING TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ALL POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH MANY
CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STRONG FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH TO BEGIN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST.

THE HIGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODIFY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AND IT
WILL FEEL CLOSER TO SEASONAL. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL STILL BE
SUBPAR.
&&


.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...46






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