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000
FXUS64 KLZK 311737
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WITH BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NOTED. THESE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER
SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD BE SEEN ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NRN SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AR...FROST POSSIBLE IN AREAS...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AR...WHILE WILL UPDATE FREEZE WATCH TO WARNING
OVER CENTRAL AR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING
APPROACH RECORDS...BUT MOST LOCALS HAVE RECORDS IN THE LOWER 20S
AND FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE LOWS QUITE THAT LOW.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
TO EASTERN U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONTS TO
PUSH INTO AR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF TO THE SE OF AR...AND THE FIRST
FRONT OR PREFRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS OVER CENTRAL AR AT
THIS TIME...BRINGING A NW SURFACE FLOW AND COOLER AIR. THE
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND BRING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
THE STATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. TEMPS
WERE IN THE 50S TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH...WHILE 50S CENTRAL TO
SOUTH. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S STATE WIDE...WITH
00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER OF 0.56 INCHES.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY WILL BE A CHILLIER DAY WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN TO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH...THEN THE SECOND FRONT WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AR. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. TONIGHT...THE
COLD ADVECTION AND THE STRONG COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLE OVER THE REGION...AND TAKE TEMPS TO THE 20S TO 30S.
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AM. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
QUITE DRY AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL. ON SATURDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA AND KEEPS TEMPS 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS
REBOUND TO THE 60S WEST...WHILE STILL THE 50S NE AR. ON MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO
AR...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON MONDAY. THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST MOVES CLOSER TO AR AND
BEINGS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SE INTO THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE NW
ON TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WED...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY DECREASE
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE BECOMES WEAKER FROM THE WEST AND NW.
THIS WEAKENING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
FLOW SEPARATING FROM THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS.
WHILE DECREASING POPS ARE CURRENTLY MENTIONED FOR LATER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...THE MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO MOVE THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EAST OVER THE SRN MS RIVER
VALLEY REGION LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AS WITH ANY CLOSED UPPER
LOWS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST.
AS A RESULT...DROP POPS CONSIDERABLY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LATER NEXT
WEEK IF THE UPPER LOW DECIDES TO SHIFT EAST SOONER THAN THE LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  29  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  33  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       52  25  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  31  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      61  29  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        58  30  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     64  33  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  30  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      60  32  54  35 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 311109 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
609 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD BE SEEN ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NRN SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AR...FROST POSSIBLE IN AREAS...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AR...WHILE WILL UPDATE FREEZE WATCH TO WARNING
OVER CENTRAL AR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING
APPROACH RECORDS...BUT MOST LOCALS HAVE RECORDS IN THE LOWER 20S
AND FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE LOWS QUITE THAT LOW.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
TO EASTERN U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONTS TO
PUSH INTO AR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF TO THE SE OF AR...AND THE FIRST
FRONT OR PREFRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS OVER CENTRAL AR AT
THIS TIME...BRINGING A NW SURFACE FLOW AND COOLER AIR. THE
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND BRING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
THE STATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. TEMPS
WERE IN THE 50S TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH...WHILE 50S CENTRAL TO
SOUTH. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S STATE WIDE...WITH
00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER OF 0.56 INCHES.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY WILL BE A CHILLIER DAY WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN TO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH...THEN THE SECOND FRONT WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AR. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. TONIGHT...THE
COLD ADVECTION AND THE STRONG COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLE OVER THE REGION...AND TAKE TEMPS TO THE 20S TO 30S.
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AM. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
QUITE DRY AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL. ON SATURDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA AND KEEPS TEMPS 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS
REBOUND TO THE 60S WEST...WHILE STILL THE 50S NE AR. ON MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO
AR...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON MONDAY. THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST MOVES CLOSER TO AR AND
BEINGS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SE INTO THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE NW
ON TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WED...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY DECREASE
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE BECOMES WEAKER FROM THE WEST AND NW.
THIS WEAKENING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
FLOW SEPARATING FROM THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS.
WHILE DECREASING POPS ARE CURRENTLY MENTIONED FOR LATER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...THE MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO MOVE THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EAST OVER THE SRN MS RIVER
VALLEY REGION LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AS WITH ANY CLOSED UPPER
LOWS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST.
AS A RESULT...DROP POPS CONSIDERABLY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LATER NEXT
WEEK IF THE UPPER LOW DECIDES TO SHIFT EAST SOONER THAN THE LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  29  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  33  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       52  25  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  31  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      61  29  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        58  30  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     64  33  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  30  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      60  32  54  35 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 310830 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AR...FROST POSSIBLE IN AREAS...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AR...WHILE WILL UPDATE FREEZE WATCH TO WARNING
OVER CENTRAL AR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING
APPROACH RECORDS...BUT MOST LOCALS HAVE RECORDS IN THE LOWER 20S
AND FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE LOWS QUITE THAT LOW.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
TO EASTERN U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONTS TO
PUSH INTO AR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF TO THE SE OF AR...AND THE FIRST
FRONT OR PREFRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS OVER CENTRAL AR AT
THIS TIME...BRINGING A NW SURFACE FLOW AND COOLER AIR. THE
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND BRING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
THE STATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. TEMPS
WERE IN THE 50S TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH...WHILE 50S CENTRAL TO
SOUTH. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S STATE WIDE...WITH
00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER OF 0.56 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY WILL BE A CHILLIER DAY WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN TO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH...THEN THE SECOND FRONT WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AR. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. TONIGHT...THE
COLD ADVECTION AND THE STRONG COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLE OVER THE REGION...AND TAKE TEMPS TO THE 20S TO 30S.
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AM. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
QUITE DRY AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL. ON SATURDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA AND KEEPS TEMPS 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS
REBOUND TO THE 60S WEST...WHILE STILL THE 50S NE AR. ON MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO
AR...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON MONDAY. THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST MOVES CLOSER TO AR AND
BEINGS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SE INTO THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE NW
ON TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WED...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY DECREASE
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE BECOMES WEAKER FROM THE WEST AND NW.
THIS WEAKENING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
FLOW SEPARATING FROM THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS.
WHILE DECREASING POPS ARE CURRENTLY MENTIONED FOR LATER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...THE MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO MOVE THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EAST OVER THE SRN MS RIVER
VALLEY REGION LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AS WITH ANY CLOSED UPPER
LOWS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST.
AS A RESULT...DROP POPS CONSIDERABLY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LATER NEXT
WEEK IF THE UPPER LOW DECIDES TO SHIFT EAST SOONER THAN THE LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  29  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  33  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       52  25  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  31  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      61  29  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        58  30  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     64  33  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  30  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      60  32  54  35 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM & AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 310803
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
303 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AR...FROST POSSIBLE IN AREAS...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AR...WHILE WILL UPDATE FREEZE WATCH TO WARNING
OVER CENTRAL AR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING
APPROACH RECORDS...BUT MOST LOCALS HAVE RECORDS IN THE LOWER 20S
AND FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE LOWS QUITE THAT LOW.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
TO EASTERN U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONTS TO
PUSH INTO AR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF TO THE SE OF AR...AND THE FIRST
FRONT OR PREFRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS OVER CENTRAL AR AT
THIS TIME...BRINGING A NW SURFACE FLOW AND COOLER AIR. THE
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND BRING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
THE STATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. TEMPS
WERE IN THE 50S TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH...WHILE 50S CENTRAL TO
SOUTH. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S STATE WIDE...WITH
00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER OF 0.56 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY WILL BE A CHILLIER DAY WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN TO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH...THEN THE SECOND FRONT WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AR. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. TONIGHT...THE
COLD ADVECTION AND THE STRONG COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLE OVER THE REGION...AND TAKE TEMPS TO THE 20S TO 30S.
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AM. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
QUITE DRY AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL. ON SATURDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA AND KEEPS TEMPS 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS
REBOUND TO THE 60S WEST...WHILE STILL THE 50S NE AR. ON MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO
AR...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON MONDAY. THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST MOVES CLOSER TO AR AND
BEINGS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SE INTO THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE NW
ON TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WED...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY DECREASE
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE BECOMES WEAKER FROM THE WEST AND NW.
THIS WEAKENING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
FLOW SEPARATING FROM THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS.
WHILE DECREASING POPS ARE CURRENTLY MENTIONED FOR LATER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...THE MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO MOVE THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EAST OVER THE SRN MS RIVER
VALLEY REGION LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AS WITH ANY CLOSED UPPER
LOWS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST.
AS A RESULT...DROP POPS CONSIDERABLY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LATER NEXT
WEEK IF THE UPPER LOW DECIDES TO SHIFT EAST SOONER THAN THE LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  29  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  32  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       52  25  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  31  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      61  29  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        58  30  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     64  33  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  30  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      60  32  54  35 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 310504 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1204 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR FRI AFTERNOON...AND
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FRI EVENING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...

ADDED CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

ONCE AGAIN...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND
BETWEEN THEIR CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS
PREFERRED THIS AFTERNOON.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN LARGE
ENOUGH THAT IF ANY THING DOES FALL...IT WOULD JUST BE SOME SPRINKLES
AND NO POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL ONE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE...COURTESY OF A VERY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL DROPPING
INCH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND CURRENT FREEZE
WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE EXPANDED TO A FREEZE WARNING WITH A
NEW FREEZE WATCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN
COLDER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH.

COME EARLY FRIDAY...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. IT WILL BE A QUICK
COOL DOWN THOUGH AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE HIGH
IS PUSHED EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM BUT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN THE
EXTENDED...WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...AND
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  53  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         32  58  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       25  53  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    31  55  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  55  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     34  57  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      30  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  53  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        33  53  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     34  55  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  55  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         31  53  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      33  54  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 302311
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
611 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF -SHRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL CLEAR BY 0030Z. NWLY
NEAR SFC FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL SITES BY 03Z...AND WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT 15-20 KTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...
ADDED CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ONCE AGAIN...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND
BETWEEN THEIR CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS
PREFERRED THIS AFTERNOON.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN LARGE
ENOUGH THAT IF ANY THING DOES FALL...IT WOULD JUST BE SOME SPRINKLES
AND NO POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL ONE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE...COURTESY OF A VERY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL DROPPING
INCH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND CURRENT FREEZE
WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE EXPANDED TO A FREEZE WARNING WITH A
NEW FREEZE WATCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN
COLDER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH.

COME EARLY FRIDAY...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. IT WILL BE A QUICK
COOL DOWN THOUGH AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE HIGH
IS PUSHED EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM BUT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN THE
EXTENDED...WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...AND
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  47  57  31 /  20  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         74  47  67  32 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       71  42  52  25 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  47  64  31 /  20   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  48  62  32 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  49  64  34 /  20   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      72  46  63  30 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  44  51  27 /  20  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        69  48  58  33 /  20  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  49  64  34 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  45  60  31 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         70  48  59  31 /  20  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      72  50  60  33 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KLZK 302054 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ONCE AGAIN...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND
BETWEEN THEIR CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS
PREFERRED THIS AFTERNOON.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN LARGE
ENOUGH THAT IF ANY THING DOES FALL...IT WOULD JUST BE SOME SPRINKLES
AND NO POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL ONE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE...COURTESY OF A VERY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL DROPPING
INCH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND CURRENT FREEZE
WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE EXPANDED TO A FREEZE WARNING WITH A
NEW FREEZE WATCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN
COLDER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH.

COME EARLY FRIDAY...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. IT WILL BE A QUICK
COOL DOWN THOUGH AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE HIGH
IS PUSHED EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM BUT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN THE
EXTENDED...WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...AND
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  57  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         47  67  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       42  52  25  53 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  64  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  62  32  55 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     49  64  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      46  63  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  51  27  53 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        48  58  33  53 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  64  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  60  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         48  59  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      50  60  33  54 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58










000
FXUS64 KLZK 302008
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
249 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ONCE AGAIN...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME.
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND
BETWEEN THEIR CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS
PREFERRED THIS AFTERNOON.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN LARGE
ENOUGH THAT IF ANY THING DOES FALL...IT WOULD JUST BE SOME SPRINKLES
AND NO POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL ONE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO
DATE...COURTESY OF A VERY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL DROPPING
INCH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND CURRENT FREEZE
WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE EXPANDED TO A FREEZE WARNING WITH A
NEW FREEZE WATCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN
COLDER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH.

COME EARLY FRIDAY...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. IT WILL BE A QUICK
COOL DOWN THOUGH AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE HIGH
IS PUSHED EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM BUT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN THE
EXTENDED...WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...AND
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.
&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  57  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         47  67  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       42  52  25  53 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  64  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  62  32  55 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     49  64  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      46  63  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  51  27  53 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        48  58  33  53 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  64  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  60  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         48  59  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      50  60  33  54 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 301750 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE STATE. A FEW SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF FOR A FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VFR. DID ADD MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
SUNRISE FOR KHOT AND KADF FOR LOCAL EFFECTS DUE TO THE LAKES
AROUND...BUT THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WIND SHIFT WITH
THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SITES FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF
MISSOURI. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND WITH FAIRLY WIDE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. SKY GRIDS ALSO ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKING REAL GOOD AND LEFT IN TACT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AR TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AR...WHILE FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OTHER AREAS...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND WILL ONLY BE UPDATED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS SEEN UP STREAM OF AR OVER KS TO IA AND
WESTERN MO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION...WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SURFACE TEMPS
WERE IN THE 40S...WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER OF 0.44 INCHES.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER AR...EXCEPT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THAT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE LOW AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AT BEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
70S STATE WIDE. THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AR TONIGHT AND WILL
BE THE START OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S STATEWIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE NORTH ELEVATED WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS QUITE
CHILLY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN
OVER THE STATE...TAKING LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S FOR
SATURDAY...WITH THE 30S ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. A FREEZE
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AND FROST POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE 50S
SATURDAY...WHILE A BIT WARMER TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SHIFT EAST MON INTO TUE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES STARTING MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TUE INTO WED...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER AR AS RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT DO REMAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND
TREND POPS LOWER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
AS THIS PERIOD GETS CLOSER...EXPECT TO SEE THESE POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
DECREASE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301750 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE STATE. A FEW SHRA/SPRINKLES ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF FOR A FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VFR. DID ADD MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
SUNRISE FOR KHOT AND KADF FOR LOCAL EFFECTS DUE TO THE LAKES
AROUND...BUT THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE MAINLY VFR. WIND SHIFT WITH
THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE SITES FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF
MISSOURI. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND WITH FAIRLY WIDE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. SKY GRIDS ALSO ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKING REAL GOOD AND LEFT IN TACT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AR TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AR...WHILE FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OTHER AREAS...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND WILL ONLY BE UPDATED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS SEEN UP STREAM OF AR OVER KS TO IA AND
WESTERN MO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION...WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SURFACE TEMPS
WERE IN THE 40S...WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER OF 0.44 INCHES.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER AR...EXCEPT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THAT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE LOW AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AT BEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
70S STATE WIDE. THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AR TONIGHT AND WILL
BE THE START OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S STATEWIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE NORTH ELEVATED WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS QUITE
CHILLY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN
OVER THE STATE...TAKING LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S FOR
SATURDAY...WITH THE 30S ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. A FREEZE
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AND FROST POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE 50S
SATURDAY...WHILE A BIT WARMER TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SHIFT EAST MON INTO TUE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES STARTING MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TUE INTO WED...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER AR AS RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT DO REMAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND
TREND POPS LOWER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
AS THIS PERIOD GETS CLOSER...EXPECT TO SEE THESE POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
DECREASE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 301525
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF
MISSOURI. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND WITH FAIRLY WIDE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS. ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME. SKY GRIDS ALSO ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKING REAL GOOD AND LEFT IN TACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL EFFECT SOME SITES THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
SEEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY A
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE
SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AR TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AR...WHILE FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OTHER AREAS...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND WILL ONLY BE UPDATED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS SEEN UP STREAM OF AR OVER KS TO IA AND
WESTERN MO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION...WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SURFACE TEMPS
WERE IN THE 40S...WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER OF 0.44 INCHES.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER AR...EXCEPT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THAT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE LOW AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AT BEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
70S STATE WIDE. THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AR TONIGHT AND WILL
BE THE START OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S STATEWIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE NORTH ELEVATED WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS QUITE
CHILLY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN
OVER THE STATE...TAKING LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S FOR
SATURDAY...WITH THE 30S ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. A FREEZE
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AND FROST POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE 50S
SATURDAY...WHILE A BIT WARMER TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SHIFT EAST MON INTO TUE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES STARTING MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TUE INTO WED...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER AR AS RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT DO REMAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND
TREND POPS LOWER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
AS THIS PERIOD GETS CLOSER...EXPECT TO SEE THESE POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
DECREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  45  56  31 /  10  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         74  47  68  34 /   0  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       71  43  52  28 /  20  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  47  64  33 /  10  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  47  64  34 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  48  67  35 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      72  45  63  31 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  43  53  29 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        69  45  56  32 /  10  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  46  65  35 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  46  60  31 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         70  46  60  32 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      72  46  63  34 /   0  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 301108 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
607 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL EFFECT SOME SITES THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE
SEEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY A
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE
SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AR TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AR...WHILE FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OTHER AREAS...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND WILL ONLY BE UPDATED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS SEEN UP STREAM OF AR OVER KS TO IA AND
WESTERN MO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION...WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SURFACE TEMPS
WERE IN THE 40S...WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER OF 0.44 INCHES.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER AR...EXCEPT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THAT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE LOW AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AT BEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
70S STATE WIDE. THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AR TONIGHT AND WILL
BE THE START OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S STATEWIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE NORTH ELEVATED WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS QUITE
CHILLY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN
OVER THE STATE...TAKING LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S FOR
SATURDAY...WITH THE 30S ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. A FREEZE
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AND FROST POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE 50S
SATURDAY...WHILE A BIT WARMER TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SHIFT EAST MON INTO TUE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES STARTING MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TUE INTO WED...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER AR AS RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT DO REMAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND
TREND POPS LOWER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
AS THIS PERIOD GETS CLOSER...EXPECT TO SEE THESE POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
DECREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  45  56  31 /  10  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         74  47  68  34 /   0  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       71  43  52  28 /  20  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  47  64  33 /  10  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  47  64  34 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  48  67  35 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      72  45  63  31 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  43  53  29 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        69  45  56  32 /  10  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  46  65  35 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  46  60  31 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         70  46  60  32 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      72  46  63  34 /   0  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 300758
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AR TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AR...WHILE FROST POSSIBLE IN SOME OTHER AREAS...AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND WILL ONLY BE UPDATED THIS MORNING.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN
U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS SEEN UP STREAM OF AR OVER KS TO IA AND
WESTERN MO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION...WITH A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SURFACE TEMPS
WERE IN THE 40S...WHILE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER OF 0.44 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER AR...EXCEPT OVER
NORTHERN AREAS THAT WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE LOW AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AT BEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
70S STATE WIDE. THEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AR TONIGHT AND WILL
BE THE START OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED. MOSTLY SUNNY ON FRIDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S STATEWIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE NORTH ELEVATED WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS QUITE
CHILLY. THEN OVER THE WEEKEND...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN
OVER THE STATE...TAKING LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S FOR
SATURDAY...WITH THE 30S ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. A FREEZE
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AND FROST POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AR. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE 50S
SATURDAY...WHILE A BIT WARMER TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH RECORD LOWS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MOST OF
THE RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SHIFT EAST MON INTO TUE...WITH FLOW
ALOFT OVER AR BECOMING SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE STATE FROM THE NW...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES STARTING MON AND ESPECIALLY MON
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE
TUE INTO WED...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER AR AS RESULT OF THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT DO REMAIN THIS FAR OUT...AND
TREND POPS LOWER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
AS THIS PERIOD GETS CLOSER...EXPECT TO SEE THESE POPS INCREASE
ACCORDINGLY AS THE TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES
DECREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  45  56  31 /  10  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         74  47  68  34 /   0  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       71  43  52  28 /  20  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  47  64  33 /  10  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  47  64  34 /  10  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     76  48  67  35 /   0  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      72  45  63  31 /  10  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  43  53  29 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        69  45  56  32 /  10  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  46  65  35 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  46  60  31 /  10  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         70  46  60  32 /  10  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      72  46  63  34 /   0  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 300517 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1217 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT
SOME PATCHY FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN BE SEEN AT CENTRAL AND SRN SITES.
SOME ISOLATED SHRA COULD BE SEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...

GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A FREEZE WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A
FREEZE WATCH. THIS ALSO WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON...AND WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND BETWEEN THEIR
CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED THIS
AFTERNOON.

EARLY MORNING FOG BURNED OFF QUICKLY IN MOST AREAS WITH SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND BY LATE THURSDAY...IT WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHWARD INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FLANKED BY DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION AND OFF THE WEST COAST. AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE OF FRIDAY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WITH A SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT INCREASES
ENOUGH THAT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON. WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY...AND ALLOW COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES...THE SETUP
COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     45  56  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         47  68  35  58 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       43  52  28  53 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    47  64  34  55 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  48  64  34  55 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     48  67  35  57 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  64  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  43  53  29  53 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        45  56  32  53 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     46  65  35  55 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  60  31  55 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         46  60  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      46  63  34  54 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 292308 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
608 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...
GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A FREEZE WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A
FREEZE WATCH. THIS ALSO WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON...AND WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND BETWEEN THEIR
CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED THIS
AFTERNOON.

EARLY MORNING FOG BURNED OFF QUICKLY IN MOST AREAS WITH SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND BY LATE THURSDAY...IT WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHWARD INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FLANKED BY DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION AND OFF THE WEST COAST. AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE OF FRIDAY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WITH A SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT INCREASES
ENOUGH THAT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON. WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY...AND ALLOW COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES...THE SETUP
COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE STATE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 292144 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
440 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A FREEZE WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND POSTED A
FREEZE WATCH. THIS ALSO WOULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON...AND WANTED TO GET THE WORD OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND BETWEEN THEIR
CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED THIS
AFTERNOON.

EARLY MORNING FOG BURNED OFF QUICKLY IN MOST AREAS WITH SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND BY LATE THURSDAY...IT WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHWARD INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FLANKED BY DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION AND OFF THE WEST COAST. AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE OF FRIDAY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WITH A SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT INCREASES
ENOUGH THAT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON. WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY...AND ALLOW COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES...THE SETUP
COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE STATE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  67  42  70 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         53  72  44  74 /  50  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       44  67  43  70 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  71  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  70  44  73 /  40  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     54  71  44  74 /  60  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      48  71  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  66  42  71 /  10  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        48  68  42  70 /  30  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     52  71  44  73 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  69  43  72 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         48  69  43  71 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      51  70  44  72 /  50  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58










000
FXUS64 KLZK 291944
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
252 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND BETWEEN THEIR
CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED THIS
AFTERNOON.

EARLY MORNING FOG BURNED OFF QUICKLY IN MOST AREAS WITH SUNNY AND
MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND MAYBE A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.

PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND BY LATE THURSDAY...IT WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS NORTHWARD INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FLANKED BY DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION AND OFF THE WEST COAST. AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE OF FRIDAY.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WITH A SPRAWLING
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT INCREASES
ENOUGH THAT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON. WIDESPREAD UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
MORNING AND SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY...AND ALLOW COLD FRONT TO APPROACH
THE REGION. TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL IN
QUESTION...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES...THE SETUP
COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE STATE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  67  42  70 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         53  72  44  74 /  50  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       44  67  43  70 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  71  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  70  44  73 /  40  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     54  71  44  74 /  60  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      48  71  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  66  42  71 /  10  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        48  68  42  70 /  30  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     52  71  44  73 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  69  43  72 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         48  69  43  71 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      51  70  44  72 /  50  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 291743 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...29/18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AT THE END OF TAF CYCLE...WITH MID CLOUDS MOVING IN. WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR AT KADF
AROUND SUNRISE...DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF RAIN
AND FOG POTENTIAL. THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN RAIN CHANCES ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MORNING LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE OVER FAR SOUTHERN
AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WAS JUST OUT OF FAR SE AR EARLIER THIS MORNING...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH. HAVE SEEN LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT THIS IS GRADUALLY MOVING SE. PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO SEEN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
SKIES WERE ALSO CLEARING OVER NORTHERN AR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SE AR IT GRADUALLY MOVES
OUT OF AR THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE CARRIED OVER THE
SE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR TODAY. CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY THINNING BEHIND THE FRONT AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS
TREND TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH...THEN
GRADUALLY THINNING OF THE CLOUDS SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. ON THURSDAY A SHORT
WAVE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MOISTURE...ONLY SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ELEMENT IS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON WILL SPILL INTO AR FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG DEEPENING UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVES SE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT ALLOWS A STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FILTER TO AR AND BRING THE BREEZY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. HIGHS DROP TO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...DRY BUT QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SRLY FLOW
WILL RETURN FOR SUN AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPS STARTING TO REBOUND
FROM LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW
INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT START INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FROM A RIDGE OVER THE STATE...TO THE SW OVER THE REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON
MON...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING FOR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MON AND MON NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SW OVER THE
REGION AS A UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS INTO OLD
MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE VERY SLOW
SWD PROGRESS...IF NOT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN PLACE TO WRAP UP THE
FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 291059 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
559 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS
DROPPING TO LIFR AT SOME TERMINALS. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES LATER
THIS MORNING AT THE IMPACTED SITES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF RAIN
AND FOG POTENTIAL. THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN RAIN CHANCES ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MORNING LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE OVER FAR SOUTHERN
AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WAS JUST OUT OF FAR SE AR EARLIER THIS MORNING...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH. HAVE SEEN LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT THIS IS GRADUALLY MOVING SE. PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO SEEN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
SKIES WERE ALSO CLEARING OVER NORTHERN AR.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SE AR IT GRADUALLY MOVES
OUT OF AR THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE CARRIED OVER THE
SE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR TODAY. CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY THINNING BEHIND THE FRONT AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS
TREND TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH...THEN
GRADUALLY THINNING OF THE CLOUDS SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. ON THURSDAY A SHORT
WAVE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MOISTURE...ONLY SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ELEMENT IS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON WILL SPILL INTO AR FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG DEEPENING UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVES SE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT ALLOWS A STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FILTER TO AR AND BRING THE BREEZY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. HIGHS DROP TO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...DRY BUT QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SRLY FLOW
WILL RETURN FOR SUN AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPS STARTING TO REBOUND
FROM LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW
INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT START INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FROM A RIDGE OVER THE STATE...TO THE SW OVER THE REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON
MON...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING FOR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MON AND MON NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SW OVER THE
REGION AS A UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS INTO OLD
MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE VERY SLOW
SWD PROGRESS...IF NOT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN PLACE TO WRAP UP THE
FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  42  70  46 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  44  73  47 /  10  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       67  42  70  43 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  43  72  46 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  44  71  47 /  10   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  44  72  47 /  10  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  43  72  46 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  42  71  44 /  10   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  42  70  47 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  44  72  47 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  43  72  46 /  10   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  43  71  47 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      70  44  71  47 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 290807
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
307 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CHANCES OF RAIN
AND FOG POTENTIAL. THEN A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEN RAIN CHANCES ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

MORNING LIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE OVER FAR SOUTHERN
AR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WAS JUST OUT OF FAR SE AR EARLIER THIS MORNING...WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH. HAVE SEEN LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT THIS IS GRADUALLY MOVING SE. PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO SEEN.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WAS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND
SKIES WERE ALSO CLEARING OVER NORTHERN AR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER SE AR IT GRADUALLY MOVES
OUT OF AR THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE CARRIED OVER THE
SE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER AR TODAY. CLOUDS WERE
GRADUALLY THINNING BEHIND THE FRONT AND FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS
TREND TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH...THEN
GRADUALLY THINNING OF THE CLOUDS SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY. ON THURSDAY A SHORT
WAVE AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT DUE TO
LACK OF MOISTURE...ONLY SOME CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ELEMENT IS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE FALL SEASON WILL SPILL INTO AR FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE STRONG DEEPENING UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...THEN MOVES SE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IT ALLOWS A STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FILTER TO AR AND BRING THE BREEZY AND
CHILLY CONDITIONS. HIGHS DROP TO THE 50S AND 60S FRIDAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...DRY BUT QUITE CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. SRLY FLOW
WILL RETURN FOR SUN AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPS STARTING TO REBOUND
FROM LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW
INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT START INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS FROM A RIDGE OVER THE STATE...TO THE SW OVER THE REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...A FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE NW ON
MON...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING FOR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MON AND MON NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SW OVER THE
REGION AS A UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS INTO OLD
MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE VERY SLOW
SWD PROGRESS...IF NOT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN PLACE TO WRAP UP THE
FORECAST...AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PLAY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  42  70  46 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         72  44  73  47 /  20  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       67  42  70  43 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  43  72  46 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  44  71  47 /  10   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     71  44  72  47 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  43  72  46 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  42  71  44 /  10   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        68  42  70  47 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     71  44  72  47 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  43  72  46 /  10   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         69  43  71  47 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      70  44  71  47 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 290515 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

ONGOING SCATTERED PRECIP CONTINUES ACROSS THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS BEFORE
GRADUALLY DROPPING FURTHER SE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE...EXPECT MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD ALSO BE SEEN AT SITES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME HRS ON WED.

&&

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAINING IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND BETWEEN THEIR
CONSECUTIVE RUNS. AS SUCH...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ROUGHLY ALONG A DEQ TO HOT TO JUST NORTH OF SGT LINE. BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A FEW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED. THE LONE
EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHWEST CORNER WHERE ENOUGH DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN
TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
FILTER INTO THE STATE TONIGHT BUT IT WILL BE SLOW GOING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HELPED OUT BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WILL
NEED TO HOLD ON TO HIGH SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH.

PARENT LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER ST. JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AND RACING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
WEAKER...SECONDARY TROUGH ON ITS TAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUMPS
UP OVER THE ROCKIES. AS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL SWING THROUGH MEAN FLOW AND JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM
THESE IMPULSES.

UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD CONCLUDES AS A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ONE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BEGINNING A WARMING TREND.
EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVING IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...AND
HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES DOWN SOME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     42  70  46  64 /   0  10  10   0
CAMDEN AR         44  74  47  71 /  10   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       43  70  45  61 /   0  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    43  73  46  68 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  44  73  47  68 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     44  74  47  70 /  10   0  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      43  73  46  68 /   0   0  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  42  71  45  62 /   0  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        42  70  47  65 /   0  10  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     44  73  47  69 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   43  72  46  66 /   0  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         43  71  47  66 /   0   0  10   0
STUTTGART AR      44  72  47  68 /   0   0  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62







000
FXUS64 KLZK 290334 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL DEPART
WITH THE RAIN. FARTHER NORTHWEST...CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE...WITH
ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET. ON WEDNESDAY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 4
TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAINING IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND BETWEEN THEIR
CONSECUTIVE RUNS. AS SUCH...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ROUGHLY ALONG A DEQ TO HOT TO JUST NORTH OF SGT LINE. BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A FEW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED. THE LONE
EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHWEST CORNER WHERE ENOUGH DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN
TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
FILTER INTO THE STATE TONIGHT BUT IT WILL BE SLOW GOING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HELPED OUT BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WILL
NEED TO HOLD ON TO HIGH SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH.

PARENT LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER ST. JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AND RACING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
WEAKER...SECONDARY TROUGH ON ITS TAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUMPS
UP OVER THE ROCKIES. AS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL SWING THROUGH MEAN FLOW AND JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM
THESE IMPULSES.

UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD CONCLUDES AS A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ONE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BEGINNING A WARMING TREND.
EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVING IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...AND
HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES DOWN SOME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  67  42  70 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         53  72  44  74 /  50  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       44  67  43  70 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  71  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  70  44  73 /  40  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     54  71  44  74 /  60  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      48  71  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  66  42  71 /  10  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        48  68  42  70 /  30  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     52  71  44  73 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  69  43  72 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         48  69  43  71 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      51  70  44  72 /  50  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58










000
FXUS64 KLZK 281953
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
252 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAINING IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND BETWEEN THEIR
CONSECUTIVE RUNS. AS SUCH...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ROUGHLY ALONG A DEQ TO HOT TO JUST NORTH OF SGT LINE. BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...REACHING
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OR EVEN A FEW
SHOWERS BEHIND IT AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED. THE LONE
EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHWEST CORNER WHERE ENOUGH DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN
TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
FILTER INTO THE STATE TONIGHT BUT IT WILL BE SLOW GOING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HELPED OUT BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING. WILL
NEED TO HOLD ON TO HIGH SCATTERED TO LOW LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH.

PARENT LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER ST. JAMES BAY THIS EVENING AND RACING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
WEAKER...SECONDARY TROUGH ON ITS TAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUMPS
UP OVER THE ROCKIES. AS SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL SWING THROUGH MEAN FLOW AND JUST BRUSH THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM
THESE IMPULSES.

UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND BE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD CONCLUDES AS A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH ONE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE WITH 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST SATURDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY...BEGINNING A WARMING TREND.
EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVING IN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES...AND
HAVE SLOWED RAIN CHANCES DOWN SOME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     46  67  42  70 /  20  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         53  72  44  74 /  50  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       44  67  43  70 /  10  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  71  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  50  70  44  73 /  40  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     54  71  44  74 /  60  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      48  71  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  66  42  71 /  10  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        48  68  42  70 /  30  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     52  71  44  73 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   46  69  43  72 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         48  69  43  71 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      51  70  44  72 /  50  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...58







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