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000
FXUS64 KLZK 280836
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
336 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE COLD FRONT HAD MADE IT THROUGH ARKADELPHIA AND PINE BLUFF AS
OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MANAGE TO PUSH OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY EVENING DISSIPATED BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS DRY...EXCEPT THAT A FEW MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BUT AS THE FRONT GOES...SO WILL
THESE...AND THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT AND HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

BY TUE AFTERNOON A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OUT WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION IN NW UPPER FLOW EARLY WED MORNING. MODELS INSIST IN
BRINGING RAINFALL INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY MID WED MORNING...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP INTENSITY WED NIGHT BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE. IN GENERAL THOUGH THE MIDDLE
GROUND APPROACH WOULD SAY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IS
A GOOD BET...AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT THINKING.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK. BETWEEN THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE 80
DEGREES ON THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS. RAINFALL SHOULD PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED VERSUS
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION NOW BACKING OFF ITS
SOLUTION OF CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE STILL SHOWING UP THIS MORNING WITH A LEAN
TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE WITH THE
SEEMINGLY EVER PRESENT WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING IN PLACE. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ABOUT AND THE MODELS CONTINUING TO
HOLD ON TO QPF...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH....WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES AND WILL ADD SOME MINIMAL POPS HERE WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY. WILL GRADUALLY REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE
CWA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT.

UPPER PATTERN REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREDOMINATE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SOMEWHAT...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  63  83  64 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         91  67  88  65 /  20   0   0  20
HARRISON AR       82  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  65  86  64 /   0   0   0  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  65  85  65 /   0   0   0  20
MONTICELLO AR     89  67  86  64 /  20   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  63  85  63 /  10   0   0  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        85  62  82  64 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     88  65  84  64 /  10   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  86  64 /   0   0   0  30
SEARCY AR         86  64  84  64 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      86  64  83  64 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56









000
FXUS64 KLZK 280836
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
336 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE COLD FRONT HAD MADE IT THROUGH ARKADELPHIA AND PINE BLUFF AS
OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MANAGE TO PUSH OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY EVENING DISSIPATED BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS DRY...EXCEPT THAT A FEW MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BUT AS THE FRONT GOES...SO WILL
THESE...AND THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT AND HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

BY TUE AFTERNOON A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OUT WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION IN NW UPPER FLOW EARLY WED MORNING. MODELS INSIST IN
BRINGING RAINFALL INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY MID WED MORNING...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP INTENSITY WED NIGHT BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE. IN GENERAL THOUGH THE MIDDLE
GROUND APPROACH WOULD SAY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IS
A GOOD BET...AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT THINKING.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK. BETWEEN THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE 80
DEGREES ON THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS. RAINFALL SHOULD PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED VERSUS
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION NOW BACKING OFF ITS
SOLUTION OF CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE STILL SHOWING UP THIS MORNING WITH A LEAN
TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE WITH THE
SEEMINGLY EVER PRESENT WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING IN PLACE. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ABOUT AND THE MODELS CONTINUING TO
HOLD ON TO QPF...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH....WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES AND WILL ADD SOME MINIMAL POPS HERE WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY. WILL GRADUALLY REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE
CWA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT.

UPPER PATTERN REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREDOMINATE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SOMEWHAT...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  63  83  64 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         91  67  88  65 /  20   0   0  20
HARRISON AR       82  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  65  86  64 /   0   0   0  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  65  85  65 /   0   0   0  20
MONTICELLO AR     89  67  86  64 /  20   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  63  85  63 /  10   0   0  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        85  62  82  64 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     88  65  84  64 /  10   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   87  63  86  64 /   0   0   0  30
SEARCY AR         86  64  84  64 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      86  64  83  64 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56








000
FXUS64 KLZK 280535
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE WITH A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE STATE. ANY PRECIPITATION HAS
EXITED THE STATE AND NONE IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. ONLY HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH AR THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND MOISTURE AND HEAT GRADIENT...WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 80. BEHIND THIS VERY ISOLATED AND WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING QUICKLY INTO THE 70S THEN
60S...WHILE TEMPS INTO THE 80S. WILL SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE
BEEN FROM SALINE COUNTY WSW TO POLK COUNTY. MAINLY A WIND EVENT WITH
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR LIT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN LLQ TOWARD MONDAY SUNRISE. LATE EVENING
UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE POP CHANCES...TEMPS...DEW POINTS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE SHRA/POTENTIAL
TSRA EFFECTING A TAF SITE...AND HAVE LEFT AS VCSH FOR NOW AND WILL
AMEND IF NEEDED. WHILE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CONCERN FOR SHRA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS WE SPEAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. BY LATE TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COOL
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL ACT TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THAT DAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING COULD TAKE PLACE AND WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...DISSIPATING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS TIME AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     86  62  84  63 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         92  66  87  63 /  30  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       83  59  83  58 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    89  65  86  62 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  88  65  85  63 /  10   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  86  62 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  63  85  60 /  20   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  84  59  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        86  62  82  59 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  83  61 /  20   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  62  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         87  63  86  62 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      87  63  82  60 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 280118 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH AR THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND MOISTURE AND HEAT GRADIENT...WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 80. BEHIND THIS VERY ISOLATED AND WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING QUICKLY INTO THE 70S THEN
60S...WHILE TEMPS INTO THE 80S. WILL SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE
BEEN FROM SALINE COUNTY WSW TO POLK COUNTY. MAINLY A WIND EVENT WITH
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR LIT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN LLQ TOWARD MONDAY SUNRISE. LATE EVENING
UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE POP CHANCES...TEMPS...DEW POINTS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE SHRA/POTENTIAL
TSRA EFFECTING A TAF SITE...AND HAVE LEFT AS VCSH FOR NOW AND WILL
AMEND IF NEEDED. WHILE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CONCERN FOR SHRA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS WE SPEAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. BY LATE TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COOL
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL ACT TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THAT DAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING COULD TAKE PLACE AND WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...DISSIPATING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS TIME AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 280118 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
820 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH AR THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND MOISTURE AND HEAT GRADIENT...WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 AND DEW
POINT TEMPS AROUND 80. BEHIND THIS VERY ISOLATED AND WEAKENING
CONVECTION...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING QUICKLY INTO THE 70S THEN
60S...WHILE TEMPS INTO THE 80S. WILL SEE THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE
BEEN FROM SALINE COUNTY WSW TO POLK COUNTY. MAINLY A WIND EVENT WITH
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR LIT
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN LLQ TOWARD MONDAY SUNRISE. LATE EVENING
UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE POP CHANCES...TEMPS...DEW POINTS BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE SHRA/POTENTIAL
TSRA EFFECTING A TAF SITE...AND HAVE LEFT AS VCSH FOR NOW AND WILL
AMEND IF NEEDED. WHILE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CONCERN FOR SHRA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS WE SPEAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. BY LATE TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COOL
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL ACT TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THAT DAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING COULD TAKE PLACE AND WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...DISSIPATING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS TIME AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58









000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE SHRA/POTENTIAL
TSRA EFFECTING A TAF SITE...AND HAVE LEFT AS VCSH FOR NOW AND WILL
AMEND IF NEEDED. WHILE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CONCERN FOR SHRA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS WE SPEAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. BY LATE TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COOL
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL ACT TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THAT DAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING COULD TAKE PLACE AND WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...DISSIPATING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS TIME AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 272340 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE SHRA/POTENTIAL
TSRA EFFECTING A TAF SITE...AND HAVE LEFT AS VCSH FOR NOW AND WILL
AMEND IF NEEDED. WHILE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED...THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH CONCERN FOR SHRA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS WE SPEAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. BY LATE TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COOL
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL ACT TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THAT DAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING COULD TAKE PLACE AND WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...DISSIPATING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS TIME AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 271939
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS WE SPEAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. BY LATE TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COOL
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL ACT TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THAT DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING COULD TAKE PLACE AND WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...DISSIPATING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS TIME AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  86  62  84 /  30   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         69  92  66  87 /  30  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       63  83  59  83 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  89  65  86 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  88  65  85 /  30  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  67  86 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      69  89  63  85 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  84  59  85 /  20   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        66  86  62  82 /  30   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     71  89  65  83 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  88  62  86 /  30  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         66  87  63  86 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      70  87  63  82 /  30  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 271939
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS WE SPEAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. BY LATE TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COOL
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL ACT TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THAT DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING COULD TAKE PLACE AND WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...DISSIPATING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS TIME AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  86  62  84 /  30   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         69  92  66  87 /  30  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       63  83  59  83 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  89  65  86 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  88  65  85 /  30  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  67  86 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      69  89  63  85 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  84  59  85 /  20   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        66  86  62  82 /  30   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     71  89  65  83 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  88  62  86 /  30  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         66  87  63  86 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      70  87  63  82 /  30  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51





000
FXUS64 KLZK 271744
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTH ARKANSAS AND WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. KLZK RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN NORTH
ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. DEVELOPMENT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
AND PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITH A WIND SHIFT BETTER
MARKING ITS PASSAGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
OVERALL WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KADF WHERE FOG IS BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ON HAND BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
USHERS IN COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE STATE AS OF 3 AM THIS
MORNING. READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ARE A PRECURSOR OF THINGS
TO COME...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S
FOR MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT TOO WARM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS SUCH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
AND NUMERICAL MODELS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE
HIGH THOUGH SO DESPITE HIGHS NOT APPROACHING 100...IT WILL STILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY JUST BET MET
TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
A NOTABLE RELIEF TO THE HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SPEAKING OF THE FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FIND
THAT A LITTLE HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO. KEPT RAINFALL CHANCES LIMITED TO ABOUT 30
PERCENT...BUT THAT IS MORE A REFLECTION ON EXPECTED COVERAGE THAN
CONFIDENCE IN PRESENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEEL
CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE THERE...THEY JUST MAY BE SCATTERED ABOUT.
WHILE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT HIGH
TODAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NAM SHOWS CAPE CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT IS TO SAY...SHOULD ANY
STORMS GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD...MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LOW TO
MID 60S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. HAVE
POPS INCREASING MODESTLY AS THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP ON THURSDAY...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND MOSTLY DEAL WITH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT THE MODELS ARE CRANKING OUT. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE GENERATING OVERRUNNING RAIN...IN JULY MIND
YOU...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ITS QPF
FOR ARKANSAS.

WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP EASTERN RIDGING TROUGHING AND
SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE GFS IS CARVING OUT AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WHILE ECMWF
MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO BLEND SOLUTIONS AND
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE. THE EVER
PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH ECMWF MOVING OVER THE ENTIRE STATE DURING THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS DIVES IT TO THE SOUTH.

PATTERN ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME WITH GFS
CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH
ECMWF DOES NOT. GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HOPE THE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN
PLACE. ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WOULD OF COURSE LOWER
EXPECTED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WILL TREND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  86  63  84 /  30   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         74  92  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       65  83  60  83 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  89  66  86 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  66  85 /  30  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  90  68  86 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      71  89  64  86 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  84  60  84 /  20   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        68  86  63  83 /  30   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  89  66  85 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  88  63  86 /  30  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         69  87  64  84 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      71  87  64  83 /  30  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 271744
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTH ARKANSAS AND WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. KLZK RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN NORTH
ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. DEVELOPMENT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONG STORMS. CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
AND PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITH A WIND SHIFT BETTER
MARKING ITS PASSAGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
OVERALL WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KADF WHERE FOG IS BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ON HAND BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
USHERS IN COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE STATE AS OF 3 AM THIS
MORNING. READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ARE A PRECURSOR OF THINGS
TO COME...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S
FOR MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT TOO WARM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS SUCH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
AND NUMERICAL MODELS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE
HIGH THOUGH SO DESPITE HIGHS NOT APPROACHING 100...IT WILL STILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY JUST BET MET
TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
A NOTABLE RELIEF TO THE HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SPEAKING OF THE FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FIND
THAT A LITTLE HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO. KEPT RAINFALL CHANCES LIMITED TO ABOUT 30
PERCENT...BUT THAT IS MORE A REFLECTION ON EXPECTED COVERAGE THAN
CONFIDENCE IN PRESENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEEL
CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE THERE...THEY JUST MAY BE SCATTERED ABOUT.
WHILE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT HIGH
TODAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NAM SHOWS CAPE CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT IS TO SAY...SHOULD ANY
STORMS GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD...MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LOW TO
MID 60S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. HAVE
POPS INCREASING MODESTLY AS THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP ON THURSDAY...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND MOSTLY DEAL WITH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT THE MODELS ARE CRANKING OUT. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE GENERATING OVERRUNNING RAIN...IN JULY MIND
YOU...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ITS QPF
FOR ARKANSAS.

WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP EASTERN RIDGING TROUGHING AND
SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE GFS IS CARVING OUT AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WHILE ECMWF
MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO BLEND SOLUTIONS AND
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE. THE EVER
PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH ECMWF MOVING OVER THE ENTIRE STATE DURING THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS DIVES IT TO THE SOUTH.

PATTERN ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME WITH GFS
CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH
ECMWF DOES NOT. GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HOPE THE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN
PLACE. ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WOULD OF COURSE LOWER
EXPECTED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WILL TREND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  86  63  84 /  30   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         74  92  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       65  83  60  83 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  89  66  86 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  66  85 /  30  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     74  90  68  86 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      71  89  64  86 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  84  60  84 /  20   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        68  86  63  83 /  30   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     73  89  66  85 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   69  88  63  86 /  30  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         69  87  64  84 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      71  87  64  83 /  30  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 271141
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
641 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
AND PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITH A WIND SHIFT BETTER
MARKING ITS PASSAGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
OVERALL WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KADF WHERE FOG IS BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ON HAND BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
USHERS IN COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE STATE AS OF 3 AM THIS
MORNING. READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ARE A PRECURSOR OF THINGS
TO COME...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S
FOR MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT TOO WARM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS SUCH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
AND NUMERICAL MODELS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE
HIGH THOUGH SO DESPITE HIGHS NOT APPROACHING 100...IT WILL STILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY JUST BET MET
TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
A NOTABLE RELIEF TO THE HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SPEAKING OF THE FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FIND
THAT A LITTLE HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO. KEPT RAINFALL CHANCES LIMITED TO ABOUT 30
PERCENT...BUT THAT IS MORE A REFLECTION ON EXPECTED COVERAGE THAN
CONFIDENCE IN PRESENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEEL
CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE THERE...THEY JUST MAY BE SCATTERED ABOUT.
WHILE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT HIGH
TODAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NAM SHOWS CAPE CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT IS TO SAY...SHOULD ANY
STORMS GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD...MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LOW TO
MID 60S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. HAVE
POPS INCREASING MODESTLY AS THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP ON THURSDAY...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND MOSTLY DEAL WITH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT THE MODELS ARE CRANKING OUT. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE GENERATING OVERRUNNING RAIN...IN JULY MIND
YOU...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ITS QPF
FOR ARKANSAS.

WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP EASTERN RIDGING TROUGHING AND
SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE GFS IS CARVING OUT AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WHILE ECMWF
MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO BLEND SOLUTIONS AND
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE. THE EVER
PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH ECMWF MOVING OVER THE ENTIRE STATE DURING THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS DIVES IT TO THE SOUTH.

PATTERN ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME WITH GFS
CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH
ECMWF DOES NOT. GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HOPE THE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN
PLACE. ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WOULD OF COURSE LOWER
EXPECTED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WILL TREND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  68  86  63 /  20  30   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  74  92  67 /  20  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       94  65  83  60 /  20  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  73  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  96  72  88  66 /  30  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     96  74  90  68 /  20  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      95  71  89  64 /  30  30  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  65  84  60 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        96  68  86  63 /  30  30   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     96  73  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   96  69  88  63 /  30  30  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  69  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      95  71  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 271141
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
641 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
AND PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITH A WIND SHIFT BETTER
MARKING ITS PASSAGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WITH A BRIEF INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
OVERALL WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KADF WHERE FOG IS BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ON HAND BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
USHERS IN COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE STATE AS OF 3 AM THIS
MORNING. READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ARE A PRECURSOR OF THINGS
TO COME...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S
FOR MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT TOO WARM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS SUCH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
AND NUMERICAL MODELS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE
HIGH THOUGH SO DESPITE HIGHS NOT APPROACHING 100...IT WILL STILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY JUST BET MET
TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
A NOTABLE RELIEF TO THE HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SPEAKING OF THE FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FIND
THAT A LITTLE HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO. KEPT RAINFALL CHANCES LIMITED TO ABOUT 30
PERCENT...BUT THAT IS MORE A REFLECTION ON EXPECTED COVERAGE THAN
CONFIDENCE IN PRESENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEEL
CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE THERE...THEY JUST MAY BE SCATTERED ABOUT.
WHILE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT HIGH
TODAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NAM SHOWS CAPE CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT IS TO SAY...SHOULD ANY
STORMS GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD...MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LOW TO
MID 60S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. HAVE
POPS INCREASING MODESTLY AS THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP ON THURSDAY...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND MOSTLY DEAL WITH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT THE MODELS ARE CRANKING OUT. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE GENERATING OVERRUNNING RAIN...IN JULY MIND
YOU...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ITS QPF
FOR ARKANSAS.

WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP EASTERN RIDGING TROUGHING AND
SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE GFS IS CARVING OUT AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WHILE ECMWF
MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO BLEND SOLUTIONS AND
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE. THE EVER
PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH ECMWF MOVING OVER THE ENTIRE STATE DURING THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS DIVES IT TO THE SOUTH.

PATTERN ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME WITH GFS
CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH
ECMWF DOES NOT. GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HOPE THE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN
PLACE. ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WOULD OF COURSE LOWER
EXPECTED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WILL TREND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  68  86  63 /  20  30   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  74  92  67 /  20  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       94  65  83  60 /  20  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  73  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  96  72  88  66 /  30  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     96  74  90  68 /  20  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      95  71  89  64 /  30  30  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  65  84  60 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        96  68  86  63 /  30  30   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     96  73  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   96  69  88  63 /  30  30  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  69  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      95  71  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 270842
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
342 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ONE LAST HOT DAY IS ON HAND BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
USHERS IN COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM ACROSS THE STATE AS OF 3 AM THIS
MORNING. READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S ARE A PRECURSOR OF THINGS
TO COME...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S
FOR MOST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT TOO WARM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS SUCH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
AND NUMERICAL MODELS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE
HIGH THOUGH SO DESPITE HIGHS NOT APPROACHING 100...IT WILL STILL
FEEL OPPRESSIVE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MOST AREAS. WILL CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AS HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL ONLY JUST BET MET
TODAY...AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
A NOTABLE RELIEF TO THE HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SPEAKING OF THE FRONT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...WITH SOME NOT SHOWING ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FIND
THAT A LITTLE HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO. KEPT RAINFALL CHANCES LIMITED TO ABOUT 30
PERCENT...BUT THAT IS MORE A REFLECTION ON EXPECTED COVERAGE THAN
CONFIDENCE IN PRESENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FEEL
CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE THERE...THEY JUST MAY BE SCATTERED ABOUT.
WHILE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT HIGH
TODAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE NAM SHOWS CAPE CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 3000 AND 4500 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT IS TO SAY...SHOULD ANY
STORMS GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF ENERGY TO WORK WITH.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN THOUGH...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

LOOKING AHEAD...MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL STILL BE QUITE
MILD AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH. HOWEVER LOW TO
MID 60S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL RUN IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. HAVE
POPS INCREASING MODESTLY AS THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP ON THURSDAY...BUT MORE ON THAT
BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND MOSTLY DEAL WITH THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
RAIN THAT THE MODELS ARE CRANKING OUT. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE GENERATING OVERRUNNING RAIN...IN JULY MIND
YOU...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH ITS QPF
FOR ARKANSAS.

WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW DEEP EASTERN RIDGING TROUGHING AND
SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE GFS IS CARVING OUT AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WHILE ECMWF
MAINTAINS AN OPEN TROUGH. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY
ARE...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO BLEND SOLUTIONS AND
TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE. THE EVER
PERSISTENT WESTERN RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION. MODELS ALL DEVELOP AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA WITH ECMWF MOVING OVER THE ENTIRE STATE DURING THE DAY
WHILE THE GFS DIVES IT TO THE SOUTH.

PATTERN ACTUALLY BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME WITH GFS
CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH
ECMWF DOES NOT. GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND HOPE THE MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IN IN
PLACE. ANY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WOULD OF COURSE LOWER
EXPECTED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WILL TREND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  68  86  63 /  20  30   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  74  92  67 /  20  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       94  65  83  60 /  20  20   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  73  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  96  72  88  66 /  30  30  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     96  74  90  68 /  20  30  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      95  71  89  64 /  30  30  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  65  84  60 /  20  20   0   0
NEWPORT AR        96  68  86  63 /  30  30   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     96  73  89  66 /  30  30  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   96  69  88  63 /  30  30  10   0
SEARCY AR         95  69  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
STUTTGART AR      95  71  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 270545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH
LLQ VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DYNAMIC AND
ONLY VCSH IS WARRENTED AT THIS POINT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. WE SAW A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. THIS EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER NORTHERN TO NE AR...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
STATE WIDE. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE MORE WEST...AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SETTING UP MORE WEST...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH AR ON
SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...MAINLY
SUNDAY EVENING. POPS ON SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED BASED ON NEXT FORECAST. MODELS DO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
CAPE...WHILE LIFT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. BUT PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE PRESENT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 18Z...AND MAY
REACH CENTRAL SITES BEFORE 00Z. MAIN EFFECT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
THE WIND SHIFT...AND ADDED PROB30S FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD TSRA. BEFORE THE
FRONT...HZ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT /ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL/ WEATHER IS
IN STORE...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTRACTS AND ALLOWS A FRONT IN THE
PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MILD JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...WITH A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS STORM SYSTEMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THAT WILL
BRING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL KNOW MORE
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  67  87  62 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         97  72  91  66 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  63  83  59 /  20  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  73  90  65 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  72  89  65 /  10  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     95  74  90  68 /  10  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      94  68  89  62 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  97  64  85  58 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        95  68  87  62 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  89  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  90  62 /  10  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         95  69  87  61 /  10  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      94  72  87  61 /  10  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56







000
FXUS64 KLZK 270545
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE EARLY
SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH
LLQ VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FRONT IS NOT VERY DYNAMIC AND
ONLY VCSH IS WARRENTED AT THIS POINT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
TO NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY AROUND
SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. WE SAW A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. THIS EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER NORTHERN TO NE AR...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
STATE WIDE. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE MORE WEST...AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SETTING UP MORE WEST...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH AR ON
SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...MAINLY
SUNDAY EVENING. POPS ON SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED BASED ON NEXT FORECAST. MODELS DO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
CAPE...WHILE LIFT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. BUT PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE PRESENT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 18Z...AND MAY
REACH CENTRAL SITES BEFORE 00Z. MAIN EFFECT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
THE WIND SHIFT...AND ADDED PROB30S FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD TSRA. BEFORE THE
FRONT...HZ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT /ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL/ WEATHER IS
IN STORE...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTRACTS AND ALLOWS A FRONT IN THE
PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MILD JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...WITH A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS STORM SYSTEMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THAT WILL
BRING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL KNOW MORE
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  67  87  62 /  20  20  10   0
CAMDEN AR         97  72  91  66 /  10  20  30  10
HARRISON AR       94  63  83  59 /  20  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  73  90  65 /  10  20  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  72  89  65 /  10  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     95  74  90  68 /  10  20  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      94  68  89  62 /  10  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  97  64  85  58 /  20  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        95  68  87  62 /  20  20  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  89  64 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  67  90  62 /  10  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         95  69  87  61 /  10  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      94  72  87  61 /  10  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56






000
FXUS64 KLZK 270200 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. WE SAW A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. THIS EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER NORTHERN TO NE AR...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
STATE WIDE. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE MORE WEST...AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SETTING UP MORE WEST...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH AR ON
SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...MAINLY
SUNDAY EVENING. POPS ON SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED BASED ON NEXT FORECAST. MODELS DO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
CAPE...WHILE LIFT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. BUT PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE PRESENT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 18Z...AND MAY
REACH CENTRAL SITES BEFORE 00Z. MAIN EFFECT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
THE WIND SHIFT...AND ADDED PROB30S FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD TSRA. BEFORE THE
FRONT...HZ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT /ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL/ WEATHER IS
IN STORE...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTRACTS AND ALLOWS A FRONT IN THE
PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MILD JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...WITH A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS STORM SYSTEMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THAT WILL
BRING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL KNOW MORE
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58









000
FXUS64 KLZK 270200 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. WE SAW A HOT AND HUMID DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. THIS EVENING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER NORTHERN TO NE AR...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
STATE WIDE. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE MORE WEST...AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE SETTING UP MORE WEST...WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG THROUGH AR ON
SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM...MAINLY
SUNDAY EVENING. POPS ON SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT MAY HAVE TO BE
RAISED BASED ON NEXT FORECAST. MODELS DO HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
CAPE...WHILE LIFT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. BUT PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE PRESENT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 18Z...AND MAY
REACH CENTRAL SITES BEFORE 00Z. MAIN EFFECT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
THE WIND SHIFT...AND ADDED PROB30S FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD TSRA. BEFORE THE
FRONT...HZ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT /ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL/ WEATHER IS
IN STORE...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTRACTS AND ALLOWS A FRONT IN THE
PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MILD JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...WITH A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS STORM SYSTEMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THAT WILL
BRING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL KNOW MORE
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58








000
FXUS64 KLZK 262347 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 18Z...AND MAY
REACH CENTRAL SITES BEFORE 00Z. MAIN EFFECT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
THE WIND SHIFT...AND ADDED PROB30S FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD TSRA. BEFORE THE
FRONT...HZ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT /ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL/ WEATHER IS
IN STORE...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTRACTS AND ALLOWS A FRONT IN THE
PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MILD JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...WITH A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS STORM SYSTEMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THAT WILL
BRING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL KNOW MORE
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58





000
FXUS64 KLZK 262347 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 18Z...AND MAY
REACH CENTRAL SITES BEFORE 00Z. MAIN EFFECT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
THE WIND SHIFT...AND ADDED PROB30S FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WITH
SHALLOW MOISTURE DEPTH...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD TSRA. BEFORE THE
FRONT...HZ IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT /ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL/ WEATHER IS
IN STORE...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTRACTS AND ALLOWS A FRONT IN THE
PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MILD JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...WITH A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS STORM SYSTEMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THAT WILL
BRING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL KNOW MORE
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261954
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT /ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL/ WEATHER IS
IN STORE...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTRACTS AND ALLOWS A FRONT IN THE
PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MILD JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...WITH A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS STORM SYSTEMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THAT WILL
BRING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL KNOW MORE
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  96  67  87 /   0  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         74  97  72  91 /   0  10  20  30
HARRISON AR       75  94  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  95  73  90 /   0  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  97  72  89 /   0  10  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     76  95  74  90 /   0  10  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  68  89 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  97  64  85 /   0  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        77  95  68  87 /   0  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  96  73  89 /   0  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  94  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         73  95  69  87 /   0  10  20  10
STUTTGART AR      72  94  72  87 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...46






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261954
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
254 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT /ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL/ WEATHER IS
IN STORE...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTRACTS AND ALLOWS A FRONT IN THE
PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO
THE 70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 100 AND 105
DEGREES.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A MILD JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST...WITH A STALLED
FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS STORM SYSTEMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THAT WILL
BRING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

RAIN COULD BE HEAVY...BUT THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. WILL KNOW MORE
ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LOCALLY AS MORE DATA ROLLS IN.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...BELOW NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS
ARE IN THE FORECAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     76  96  67  87 /   0  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         74  97  72  91 /   0  10  20  30
HARRISON AR       75  94  63  83 /   0  20  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  95  73  90 /   0  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  97  72  89 /   0  10  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     76  95  74  90 /   0  10  20  30
MOUNT IDA AR      73  94  68  89 /   0  10  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  97  64  85 /   0  20  20  10
NEWPORT AR        77  95  68  87 /   0  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     74  96  73  89 /   0  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  94  67  90 /   0  10  20  10
SEARCY AR         73  95  69  87 /   0  10  20  10
STUTTGART AR      72  94  72  87 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...46





000
FXUS64 KLZK 261917 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
215 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL BE NOTED FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL REFORM SUNDAY MORNING AT 3000 TO 4000
FEET.

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS.

BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDER...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS FROM 16 TO 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
ARRIVES. (46)
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS MODELS
ALL AGREE THAT A VERY HOT WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MINIMAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE QPF FIELDS BUT OTHERWISE THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALLED OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IS ON THE MOVE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THIS TIME AS A WARM FRONT. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THE
BOUNDARY IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN IS LESS AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING VERSUS THE
PAST FEW AS COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS HAS
FLATTENED OUT THE PREVIOUSLY SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE WITH VERY
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF HIGH
HUMIDITY AS WELL. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS CRITERIA
FOR AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE MET. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THE HOT CONDITIONS.

THE QUESTION IS HOW HOT WILL IT GET. H85 TEMPS AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND EVEN
A TOUCH WARMER OF SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING JUST A TOUCH
WARMER THAN ACTUAL HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL GO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW THE NUMBERS BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID REGARDLESS.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS
ONCE AGAIN. THIS IN TURN WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REACH NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. FRONT IS NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC AND NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
EXPECT OVER THE SOUTH...WHERE THE BOUNDARY GETS A LITTLE MORE
ENERGETIC AND CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
UPPER LOW CARVING OUT A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROF RESULTING IN A STOUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. BY KNOW IT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...YIELDING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE QUESTION REALLY IS HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL THEY WILL BE.
BUMPED LOWS AND HIGHS UP JUST A TAD FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BUT HAVE
STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. STILL...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVING SAID
THAT...SOME RECORD MORNING LOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS
WILL BE CHALLENGED...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS
MODELS HAD SHOWN THIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO
BACK OFF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE WEST ON WED EVENING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY...WHICH IS WHERE I HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  72  95  70 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       95  71  94  67 /   0   0  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  73  97  73 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      97  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  71  93  66 /   0   0  20  20
NEWPORT AR        95  72  95  71 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         95  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      95  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLZK 261917 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
215 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL BE NOTED FROM 4000 TO 5000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL REFORM SUNDAY MORNING AT 3000 TO 4000
FEET.

THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SPOTTY MVFR
CONDITIONS.

BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDER...AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14
MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS FROM 16 TO 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
ARRIVES. (46)
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS MODELS
ALL AGREE THAT A VERY HOT WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MINIMAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE QPF FIELDS BUT OTHERWISE THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALLED OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IS ON THE MOVE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THIS TIME AS A WARM FRONT. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THE
BOUNDARY IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN IS LESS AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING VERSUS THE
PAST FEW AS COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS HAS
FLATTENED OUT THE PREVIOUSLY SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE WITH VERY
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF HIGH
HUMIDITY AS WELL. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS CRITERIA
FOR AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE MET. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THE HOT CONDITIONS.

THE QUESTION IS HOW HOT WILL IT GET. H85 TEMPS AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND EVEN
A TOUCH WARMER OF SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING JUST A TOUCH
WARMER THAN ACTUAL HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL GO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW THE NUMBERS BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID REGARDLESS.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS
ONCE AGAIN. THIS IN TURN WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REACH NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. FRONT IS NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC AND NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
EXPECT OVER THE SOUTH...WHERE THE BOUNDARY GETS A LITTLE MORE
ENERGETIC AND CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
UPPER LOW CARVING OUT A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROF RESULTING IN A STOUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. BY KNOW IT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...YIELDING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE QUESTION REALLY IS HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL THEY WILL BE.
BUMPED LOWS AND HIGHS UP JUST A TAD FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BUT HAVE
STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. STILL...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVING SAID
THAT...SOME RECORD MORNING LOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS
WILL BE CHALLENGED...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS
MODELS HAD SHOWN THIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO
BACK OFF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE WEST ON WED EVENING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY...WHICH IS WHERE I HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  72  95  70 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       95  71  94  67 /   0   0  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  73  97  73 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      97  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  71  93  66 /   0   0  20  20
NEWPORT AR        95  72  95  71 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         95  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      95  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KLZK 261108
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
608 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG PRESENT IN VARIOUS PLACES. THIS HAS CREPT INTO A
FEW TERMINALS AS WELL...WITH ENOUGH FOG TO YIELD VV-OVC002 CIGS AT
ARKADELPHIA...THOUGH ONLY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. IN ANY
CASE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 15Z AT THE LATEST SO IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15-17KT TODAY
IN THE NORTHWEST AS PRES GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT...AND WILL SLACKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. WILL ALSO SEE CU FIELD AROUND 4-5K FT
AGL DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH WILL THEN DISSIPATE FOR RETURN TO
SKC AFTER SUNSET OR ROUGHLY 00Z-02Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS MODELS
ALL AGREE THAT A VERY HOT WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MINIMAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE QPF FIELDS BUT OTHERWISE THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALLED OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IS ON THE MOVE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THIS TIME AS A WARM FRONT. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THE
BOUNDARY IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN IS LESS AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING VERSUS THE
PAST FEW AS COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS HAS
FLATTENED OUT THE PREVIOUSLY SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE WITH VERY
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF HIGH
HUMIDITY AS WELL. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS CRITERIA
FOR AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE MET. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THE HOT CONDITIONS.

THE QUESTION IS HOW HOT WILL IT GET. H85 TEMPS AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND EVEN
A TOUCH WARMER OF SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING JUST A TOUCH
WARMER THAN ACTUAL HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL GO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW THE NUMBERS BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID REGARDLESS.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS
ONCE AGAIN. THIS IN TURN WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REACH NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. FRONT IS NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC AND NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
EXPECT OVER THE SOUTH...WHERE THE BOUNDARY GETS A LITTLE MORE
ENERGETIC AND CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
UPPER LOW CARVING OUT A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROF RESULTING IN A STOUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. BY KNOW IT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...YIELDING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE QUESTION REALLY IS HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL THEY WILL BE.
BUMPED LOWS AND HIGHS UP JUST A TAD FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BUT HAVE
STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. STILL...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVING SAID
THAT...SOME RECORD MORNING LOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS
WILL BE CHALLENGED...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS
MODELS HAD SHOWN THIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO
BACK OFF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE WEST ON WED EVENING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY...WHICH IS WHERE I HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  72  95  70 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       95  71  94  67 /   0   0  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  73  97  73 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      97  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  71  93  66 /   0   0  20  20
NEWPORT AR        95  72  95  71 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         95  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      95  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






000
FXUS64 KLZK 261108
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
608 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG PRESENT IN VARIOUS PLACES. THIS HAS CREPT INTO A
FEW TERMINALS AS WELL...WITH ENOUGH FOG TO YIELD VV-OVC002 CIGS AT
ARKADELPHIA...THOUGH ONLY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ELSEWHERE. IN ANY
CASE VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 15Z AT THE LATEST SO IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. COULD SEE SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 15-17KT TODAY
IN THE NORTHWEST AS PRES GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT...AND WILL SLACKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND SUNSET. WILL ALSO SEE CU FIELD AROUND 4-5K FT
AGL DURING PEAK HEATING...WHICH WILL THEN DISSIPATE FOR RETURN TO
SKC AFTER SUNSET OR ROUGHLY 00Z-02Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS MODELS
ALL AGREE THAT A VERY HOT WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MINIMAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE QPF FIELDS BUT OTHERWISE THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALLED OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IS ON THE MOVE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THIS TIME AS A WARM FRONT. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THE
BOUNDARY IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN IS LESS AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING VERSUS THE
PAST FEW AS COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS HAS
FLATTENED OUT THE PREVIOUSLY SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE WITH VERY
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF HIGH
HUMIDITY AS WELL. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS CRITERIA
FOR AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE MET. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THE HOT CONDITIONS.

THE QUESTION IS HOW HOT WILL IT GET. H85 TEMPS AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND EVEN
A TOUCH WARMER OF SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING JUST A TOUCH
WARMER THAN ACTUAL HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL GO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW THE NUMBERS BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID REGARDLESS.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS
ONCE AGAIN. THIS IN TURN WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REACH NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. FRONT IS NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC AND NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
EXPECT OVER THE SOUTH...WHERE THE BOUNDARY GETS A LITTLE MORE
ENERGETIC AND CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
UPPER LOW CARVING OUT A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROF RESULTING IN A STOUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. BY KNOW IT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...YIELDING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE QUESTION REALLY IS HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL THEY WILL BE.
BUMPED LOWS AND HIGHS UP JUST A TAD FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BUT HAVE
STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. STILL...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVING SAID
THAT...SOME RECORD MORNING LOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS
WILL BE CHALLENGED...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS
MODELS HAD SHOWN THIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO
BACK OFF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE WEST ON WED EVENING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY...WHICH IS WHERE I HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  72  95  70 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       95  71  94  67 /   0   0  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  73  97  73 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      97  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  71  93  66 /   0   0  20  20
NEWPORT AR        95  72  95  71 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         95  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      95  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 260829
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
328 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS MODELS
ALL AGREE THAT A VERY HOT WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME MINIMAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE QPF FIELDS BUT OTHERWISE THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH
THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT GFS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALLED OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS IS ON THE MOVE ONCE
AGAIN BUT THIS TIME AS A WARM FRONT. BASED ON MOISTURE FIELDS...THE
BOUNDARY IS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF IT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MEANWHILE...UPPER PATTERN IS LESS AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING VERSUS THE
PAST FEW AS COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS HAS
FLATTENED OUT THE PREVIOUSLY SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE STATE WITH VERY
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH A RETURN OF HIGH
HUMIDITY AS WELL. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS CRITERIA
FOR AN ADVISORY WILL NOT BE MET. AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THE HOT CONDITIONS.

THE QUESTION IS HOW HOT WILL IT GET. H85 TEMPS AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND EVEN
A TOUCH WARMER OF SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING JUST A TOUCH
WARMER THAN ACTUAL HIGHS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL GO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW THE NUMBERS BUT IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID REGARDLESS.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES AS WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS
ONCE AGAIN. THIS IN TURN WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REACH NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. FRONT IS NOT
OVERLY DYNAMIC AND NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
EXPECT OVER THE SOUTH...WHERE THE BOUNDARY GETS A LITTLE MORE
ENERGETIC AND CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE FRONT WILL SINK TO THE GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
UPPER LOW CARVING OUT A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROF RESULTING IN A STOUT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED. BY KNOW IT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED
THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...YIELDING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE QUESTION REALLY IS HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL THEY WILL BE.
BUMPED LOWS AND HIGHS UP JUST A TAD FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS...BUT HAVE
STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. STILL...THE FORECAST WILL
FEATURE HIGHS AND LOWS ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HAVING SAID
THAT...SOME RECORD MORNING LOWS AND POSSIBLY SOME RECORD LOW HIGHS
WILL BE CHALLENGED...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS
MODELS HAD SHOWN THIS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO
BACK OFF WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN
THE WEST ON WED EVENING BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN HOLD
OFF UNTIL THURSDAY...WHICH IS WHERE I HAVE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  72  95  70 /   0   0  20  20
CAMDEN AR         95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       95  71  94  67 /   0   0  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  95  73  97  73 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      97  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  96  71  93  66 /   0   0  20  20
NEWPORT AR        95  72  95  71 /   0   0  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         95  72  96  72 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      95  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64










000
FXUS64 KLZK 260541 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1241 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING AT WHICH TIME SCT CU SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 4-5K FT AGL.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-12KT AT MOST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15KT SO WILL JUST
ADVERTISE SUSTAINED WINDS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN AFTER 00Z-02Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER W TX TO W OK...AND UPPER FLOW IS KEEPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF AR...HENCE A DRY FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME UPPER CIRRUS OVER
NE AR...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE LOWER
70S WEST. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MORE WEST
TO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMER
AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. NO...YOUR EYES ARE NOT DECEIVING
YOU...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE NEAR-RECORD
DAILY LOWS...AND POSSIBLY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  71  93  69 /   0  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         94  72  95  73 /   0   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       92  70  92  66 /   0  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     93  72  95  73 /   0   0  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      94  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  70  91  65 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        92  71  93  70 /   0  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     93  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  94  71 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         92  71  94  71 /   0  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      92  71  94  72 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 260541 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1241 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING AT WHICH TIME SCT CU SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 4-5K FT AGL.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-12KT AT MOST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15KT SO WILL JUST
ADVERTISE SUSTAINED WINDS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN AFTER 00Z-02Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER W TX TO W OK...AND UPPER FLOW IS KEEPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF AR...HENCE A DRY FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME UPPER CIRRUS OVER
NE AR...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE LOWER
70S WEST. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MORE WEST
TO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMER
AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. NO...YOUR EYES ARE NOT DECEIVING
YOU...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE NEAR-RECORD
DAILY LOWS...AND POSSIBLY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  71  93  69 /   0  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         94  72  95  73 /   0   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       92  70  92  66 /   0  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     93  72  95  73 /   0   0  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      94  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  70  91  65 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        92  71  93  70 /   0  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     93  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  94  71 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         92  71  94  71 /   0  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      92  71  94  72 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 260134 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
835 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER W TX TO W OK...AND UPPER FLOW IS KEEPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF AR...HENCE A DRY FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME UPPER CIRRUS OVER
NE AR...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE LOWER
70S WEST. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MORE WEST
TO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMER
AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. NO...YOUR EYES ARE NOT DECEIVING
YOU...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE NEAR-RECORD
DAILY LOWS...AND POSSIBLY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       66  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  92  72  95 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     68  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  70  91 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...58









000
FXUS64 KLZK 260134 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
835 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER W TX TO W OK...AND UPPER FLOW IS KEEPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF AR...HENCE A DRY FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME UPPER CIRRUS OVER
NE AR...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE LOWER
70S WEST. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MORE WEST
TO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMER
AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. NO...YOUR EYES ARE NOT DECEIVING
YOU...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE NEAR-RECORD
DAILY LOWS...AND POSSIBLY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       66  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  92  72  95 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     68  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  70  91 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...58










000
FXUS64 KLZK 252337 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMER
AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. NO...YOUR EYES ARE NOT DECEIVING
YOU...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE NEAR-RECORD
DAILY LOWS...AND POSSIBLY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       66  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  92  72  95 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     68  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  70  91 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 252337 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT...BEFORE WINDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. SCATTERED CU WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMER
AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. NO...YOUR EYES ARE NOT DECEIVING
YOU...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE NEAR-RECORD
DAILY LOWS...AND POSSIBLY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       66  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  92  72  95 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     68  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  70  91 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...58







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251921
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMER
AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. NO...YOUR EYES ARE NOT DECEIVING
YOU...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE NEAR-RECORD
DAILY LOWS...AND POSSIBLY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       66  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  92  72  95 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     68  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  70  91 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251921
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMER
AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. NO...YOUR EYES ARE NOT DECEIVING
YOU...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE NEAR-RECORD
DAILY LOWS...AND POSSIBLY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       66  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    68  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  92  72  95 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     68  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      69  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  92  70  91 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        66  92  71  93 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  93  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      67  92  71  94 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251701 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL MOSTLY
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED WEST OF ARKANSAS AND MOST
CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDWEST. MOST CLOUDS IN ARKANSAS ARE LOCATED IN THE WEST AND
WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. MUCH FEWER CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST SECTIONS PER SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS A DEGREE OR
TWO. SOUTH SECTIONS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST TODAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251701 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL MOSTLY
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED WEST OF ARKANSAS AND MOST
CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDWEST. MOST CLOUDS IN ARKANSAS ARE LOCATED IN THE WEST AND
WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. MUCH FEWER CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST SECTIONS PER SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS A DEGREE OR
TWO. SOUTH SECTIONS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST TODAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57





000
FXUS64 KLZK 251602
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED WEST OF ARKANSAS AND MOST
CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDWEST. MOST CLOUDS IN ARKANSAS ARE LOCATED IN THE WEST AND
WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. MUCH FEWER CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST SECTIONS PER SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS A DEGREE OR
TWO. SOUTH SECTIONS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST TODAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE INDEED FORMED IN WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH. CIGS
RANGE FROM BKN035-040 FT AT KRUE AND KHOT...TO BKN015-020 IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFYV AND KASG. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. HAVE
INCLUDED FEW020 AT KHRO THROUGH THE MORNING TO HINT AT THIS BUT DO
NOT THINK MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT HARRISON AND STOPPED SHY OF ANY
TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TODAY FOR FEW-SCT040 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DIURNAL CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KT AT ALL SITES...AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF VALUE ADDED CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS ALL
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT BEING SAID...WILL
CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE FEW...MAINLY
FINER SCALE DIFFERENCES...THAT EXIST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING WHICH HAS BEEN
PUSHED KNOCKED DOWN AND SHUNTED SLIGHTLY EAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AT THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE SATURDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AND WILL
EXIT THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHILE ECMWF HAS VIRTUALLY NONE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT
THIS POINT BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...ONLY MINIMAL
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY AND BE
SITUATED IN NRN LOUISIANA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE STATE. IN FACT...NEAR
RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...AND AGAIN WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN. IN THE
NORTH...READINGS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S...QUITE COOL FOR LATE
JULY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE DAILY RECORD LOWS.

LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AS WELL THOUGH
POTENTIALLY A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST ON WED AND THU. IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. MODELS SHOW A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT.
FORECASTS HAVE VARIED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IN GENERAL IT
LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THAT TIME. DEPENDING ON WHEN CLOUD COVER
MOVES IN AND/OR WHERE RAIN SETS UP...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         93  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       89  70  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  70  96  74 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     92  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      91  70  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        89  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     90  70  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  70  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         90  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      90  70  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51






000
FXUS64 KLZK 251602
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED WEST OF ARKANSAS AND MOST
CLOUDS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MIDWEST. MOST CLOUDS IN ARKANSAS ARE LOCATED IN THE WEST AND
WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. MUCH FEWER CLOUDS ARE IN THE CENTRAL
AND EAST SECTIONS PER SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. INCREASED
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND LOWERED
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS A DEGREE OR
TWO. SOUTH SECTIONS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST TODAY. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...

SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE INDEED FORMED IN WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH. CIGS
RANGE FROM BKN035-040 FT AT KRUE AND KHOT...TO BKN015-020 IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFYV AND KASG. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. HAVE
INCLUDED FEW020 AT KHRO THROUGH THE MORNING TO HINT AT THIS BUT DO
NOT THINK MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT HARRISON AND STOPPED SHY OF ANY
TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TODAY FOR FEW-SCT040 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DIURNAL CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KT AT ALL SITES...AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF VALUE ADDED CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS ALL
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT BEING SAID...WILL
CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE FEW...MAINLY
FINER SCALE DIFFERENCES...THAT EXIST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING WHICH HAS BEEN
PUSHED KNOCKED DOWN AND SHUNTED SLIGHTLY EAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AT THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE SATURDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AND WILL
EXIT THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHILE ECMWF HAS VIRTUALLY NONE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT
THIS POINT BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...ONLY MINIMAL
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY AND BE
SITUATED IN NRN LOUISIANA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE STATE. IN FACT...NEAR
RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...AND AGAIN WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN. IN THE
NORTH...READINGS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S...QUITE COOL FOR LATE
JULY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE DAILY RECORD LOWS.

LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AS WELL THOUGH
POTENTIALLY A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST ON WED AND THU. IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. MODELS SHOW A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT.
FORECASTS HAVE VARIED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IN GENERAL IT
LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THAT TIME. DEPENDING ON WHEN CLOUD COVER
MOVES IN AND/OR WHERE RAIN SETS UP...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         93  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       89  70  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    90  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  70  96  74 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     92  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      91  70  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  69  95  72 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        89  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     90  70  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  70  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         90  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      90  70  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 251139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
639 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE INDEED FORMED IN WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH. CIGS
RANGE FROM BKN035-040 FT AT KRUE AND KHOT...TO BKN015-020 IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFYV AND KASG. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. HAVE
INCLUDED FEW020 AT KHRO THROUGH THE MORNING TO HINT AT THIS BUT DO
NOT THINK MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT HARRISON AND STOPPED SHY OF ANY
TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TODAY FOR FEW-SCT040 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DIURNAL CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KT AT ALL SITES...AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF VALUE ADDED CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS ALL
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT BEING SAID...WILL
CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE FEW...MAINLY
FINER SCALE DIFFERENCES...THAT EXIST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING WHICH HAS BEEN
PUSHED KNOCKED DOWN AND SHUNTED SLIGHTLY EAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AT THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE SATURDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AND WILL
EXIT THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHILE ECMWF HAS VIRTUALLY NONE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT
THIS POINT BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...ONLY MINIMAL
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY AND BE
SITUATED IN NRN LOUISIANA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE STATE. IN FACT...NEAR
RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...AND AGAIN WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN. IN THE
NORTH...READINGS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S...QUITE COOL FOR LATE
JULY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE DAILY RECORD LOWS.

LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AS WELL THOUGH
POTENTIALLY A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST ON WED AND THU. IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. MODELS SHOW A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT.
FORECASTS HAVE VARIED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IN GENERAL IT
LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THAT TIME. DEPENDING ON WHEN CLOUD COVER
MOVES IN AND/OR WHERE RAIN SETS UP...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       91  70  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  96  74 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     92  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      94  70  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  69  95  72 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        90  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     91  70  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         90  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      90  70  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64








000
FXUS64 KLZK 251139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
639 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE INDEED FORMED IN WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH. CIGS
RANGE FROM BKN035-040 FT AT KRUE AND KHOT...TO BKN015-020 IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFYV AND KASG. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS MAY DRIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. HAVE
INCLUDED FEW020 AT KHRO THROUGH THE MORNING TO HINT AT THIS BUT DO
NOT THINK MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT HARRISON AND STOPPED SHY OF ANY
TEMPO OR PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AREAS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TODAY FOR FEW-SCT040 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DIURNAL CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 10KT AT ALL SITES...AND
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
NOT A LOT OF VALUE ADDED CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS ALL
SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THAT BEING SAID...WILL
CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE FEW...MAINLY
FINER SCALE DIFFERENCES...THAT EXIST.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
SOUTHWEST BUT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS THROUGH WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES OVER THE CENTURY
MARK ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERALL THE
MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS STILL DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING WHICH HAS BEEN
PUSHED KNOCKED DOWN AND SHUNTED SLIGHTLY EAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER
LOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AT THIS TIME WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE SATURDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AND WILL
EXIT THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GFS/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHILE ECMWF HAS VIRTUALLY NONE. WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT
THIS POINT BUT REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...ONLY MINIMAL
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. AT THE SURFACE
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE STATE ON MONDAY AND BE
SITUATED IN NRN LOUISIANA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE STATE. IN FACT...NEAR
RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING...AND AGAIN WED
NIGHT/THU MORNING...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN. IN THE
NORTH...READINGS MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S...QUITE COOL FOR LATE
JULY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE DAILY RECORD LOWS.

LIKEWISE...HIGHS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AS WELL THOUGH
POTENTIALLY A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST ON WED AND THU. IN GENERAL
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. MODELS SHOW A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT.
FORECASTS HAVE VARIED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IN GENERAL IT
LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THAT TIME. DEPENDING ON WHEN CLOUD COVER
MOVES IN AND/OR WHERE RAIN SETS UP...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         94  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       91  70  95  73 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  71  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  91  70  96  74 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     92  70  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      94  70  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  91  69  95  72 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        90  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     91  70  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  70  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         90  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      90  70  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64







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