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000
FXUS64 KLZK 162333 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THEN PATCHY MID AND LOWER CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE AT 5 TO 15 MPH...LOWERING TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...CONTINUED S TO SE WINDS OF
5 TO 15 MPH. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST COAST AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST...WINDS ARE PICKING UP OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RAIN
WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM SUNDAY/MONDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
AND FAIR WEATHER RETURNING.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY AS
THE PERIOD ENDS. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS RIDGING OCCURS...IT WILL ONLY GET
WARMER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND COULD BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  65  47  69 /   0  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         40  70  47  75 /   0  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       37  65  45  68 /   0  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  67  47  75 /   0  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  68  49  73 /   0  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     41  71  50  74 /   0  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      40  66  46  74 /   0  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  64  45  68 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        39  66  49  70 /   0  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     42  69  50  74 /   0  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  66  46  72 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         39  67  48  71 /   0  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      41  68  51  73 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46













000
FXUS64 KLZK 161952 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FAIR CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE FAR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS FROM 20
TO 30 MPH. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE NOTED TONIGHT...WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST COAST AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST...WINDS ARE PICKING UP OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RAIN
WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM SUNDAY/MONDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
AND FAIR WEATHER RETURNING.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY AS
THE PERIOD ENDS. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS RIDGING OCCURS...IT WILL ONLY GET
WARMER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND COULD BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  65  47  69 /   0  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         40  70  47  75 /   0  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       37  65  45  68 /   0  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  67  47  75 /   0  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  68  49  73 /   0  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     41  71  50  74 /   0  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      40  66  46  74 /   0  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  64  45  68 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        39  66  49  70 /   0  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     42  69  50  74 /   0  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  66  46  72 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         39  67  48  71 /   0  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      41  68  51  73 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46










000
FXUS64 KLZK 161946
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST COAST AND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OVER THE PLAINS...WHICH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST...WINDS ARE PICKING UP OVER THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RAIN
WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE PERIOD
BEGINS. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM SUNDAY/MONDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING
AND FAIR WEATHER RETURNING.

STRONG RIDGING WILL BE NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY AS
THE PERIOD ENDS. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA. AS RIDGING OCCURS...IT WILL ONLY GET
WARMER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...AND COULD BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  65  47  69 /   0  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         40  70  47  75 /   0  10  20  20
HARRISON AR       37  65  45  68 /   0  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    40  67  47  75 /   0  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  68  49  73 /   0  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     41  71  50  74 /   0  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      40  66  46  74 /   0  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  37  64  45  68 /   0  10  30  20
NEWPORT AR        39  66  49  70 /   0  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     42  69  50  74 /   0  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  66  46  72 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         39  67  48  71 /   0  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      41  68  51  73 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 160832
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
332 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
INCREASED DEWPOINTS...AS WELL AS INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
HAVE LED TO MUCH LESS OF A FREEZE/FROST RISK THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO
FREEZING IN VARIOUS PART OF THE AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING RIDE FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH SMALL
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST...AS A FAIRLY QUICK-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FLATTEN
OUT SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONLY TO TRANSITION BACK
TO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW BY EARLY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE OUT WEST. SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION MEANS
TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL BETWEEN MODELS...AND THIS IS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. AS SUCH LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE LONG
TERM FORECAST...WHICH LARGELY FOLLOWS THE 4-16-14 00Z GFS SOLUTION.

AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE
REGION TO THE EAST INITIALLY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SET TO MOVE IN
AND IMPACT THE STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY. TAPERED RAIN CHANCES BACK JUST
A TAD TO REFLECT POSSIBILITY OF SLOWER TIMING LIKE THE EUROPEAN
MODEL IS SHOWING...BUT EXPECT THAT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  36  66  45 /   0   0  10  20
CAMDEN AR         64  39  69  47 /   0   0  10  20
HARRISON AR       60  37  64  47 /   0   0  10  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  40  67  48 /   0   0  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  42  69  49 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     65  41  69  50 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      63  36  66  43 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  37  66  45 /   0   0  10  20
NEWPORT AR        60  39  66  48 /   0   0  10  20
PINE BLUFF AR     62  42  68  50 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  37  68  45 /   0   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         59  36  69  46 /   0   0  10  20
STUTTGART AR      60  43  67  51 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER- GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI- SALINE-
SCOTT-YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...64







000
FXUS64 KLZK 160530 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 18-20KT
IN THE NORTH AFTER 15Z OR THEREABOUTS AND HAVE THIS IN THE
FORECAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-16KT MAY OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS
KLIT AND KHOT...BUT THINK THAT IS ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS ANY GUSTY
WINDS WILL EXTEND DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY CLOUDS IN
SIGHT ARE GOING TO BE FEW-SCT250 THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED AFTERWARD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO HAVE
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECT CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. WILL
LEAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.

FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WITHIN REASON. ANOTHER
FREEZE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEASTERN AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...LOWER TO MID 30S STILL LOOK GOOD WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END IN THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY...BUT NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY LOOKS FAIR AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH PACIFIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  38  68  47 /   0   0  10  40
CAMDEN AR         65  40  70  49 /   0   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       62  37  65  44 /   0   0  20  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  40  68  49 /   0   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  40  68  49 /   0   0  10  40
MONTICELLO AR     64  40  70  51 /   0   0  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      64  40  67  47 /   0   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  37  66  44 /   0   0  20  40
NEWPORT AR        61  39  68  48 /   0   0  10  40
PINE BLUFF AR     63  41  69  50 /   0   0  10  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  39  67  46 /   0   0  20  30
SEARCY AR         61  38  68  49 /   0   0  10  40
STUTTGART AR      62  40  69  50 /   0   0  10  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...64









000
FXUS64 KLZK 160237 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
937 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO HAVE
THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECT CURRENT TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS. WILL
LEAVE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS IS.

FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WITHIN REASON. ANOTHER
FREEZE WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEASTERN AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...LOWER TO MID 30S STILL LOOK GOOD WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN OVER AR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE N TO NE...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING 8 TO 18 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
SEEN OVER NORTHWESTERN AR. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END IN THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY...BUT NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY LOOKS FAIR AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH PACIFIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         32  65  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       31  62  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  64  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  63  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  64  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  64  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  62  37  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        31  61  39  68 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  63  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  63  39  67 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      34  62  40  69 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

226







000
FXUS64 KLZK 152327 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN OVER AR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE N TO NE...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN INCREASE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BECOMING 8 TO 18 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
SEEN OVER NORTHWESTERN AR. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END IN THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY...BUT NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY LOOKS FAIR AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH PACIFIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         32  65  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       31  62  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  64  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  63  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  64  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  64  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  62  37  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        31  61  39  68 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  63  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  63  39  67 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      34  62  40  69 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46










000
FXUS64 KLZK 152005
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
305 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE PLAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND A SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END IN THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INITIALLY...BUT NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BRING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY. TUESDAY LOOKS FAIR AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH PACIFIC AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM...SO COOLING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         32  65  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       31  62  37  65 /   0   0   0  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  64  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  34  63  40  68 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     33  64  40  70 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      33  64  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  31  62  37  66 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        31  61  39  68 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  63  41  69 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  63  39  67 /   0   0   0  20
SEARCY AR         31  61  38  68 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      34  62  40  69 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51 / LONG TERM...46







000
FXUS64 KLZK 151910 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
205 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER
THAN A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST. WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 14 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS IN NORTHERN/WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO 16 TO 22 MPH. (46)
&&

.UPDATE...
FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND APPROPRIATE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND FLOW...SHOULD HAVE MORE AREAS OF
FROST EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS PRODUCED TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
MID-SOUTH SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION.
FORECASTS LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WIND FIELDS ALL
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THIS REGION...AND OVERALL CONVECTION THAT IS PRODUCED
SHOULD BE WEAK.

55

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS
DIFFERING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. HAVE LEFT SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS
REACHED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  32  61  38 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         60  31  65  39 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       55  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  34  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     57  33  63  41 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        55  33  62  40 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  34  63  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  33  64  39 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         56  33  61  37 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      56  34  61  41 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLZK 151515
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1015 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS. SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE ABOVE 7 KNOTS BY MID DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AFTER 16/00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND APPROPRIATE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND FLOW...SHOULD HAVE MORE AREAS OF FROST
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS PRODUCED TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
MID-SOUTH SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION.
FORECASTS LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WIND FIELDS ALL
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THIS REGION...AND OVERALL CONVECTION THAT IS PRODUCED
SHOULD BE WEAK.

55

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS
DIFFERING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. HAVE LEFT SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS
REACHED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  32  61  38 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         60  31  65  39 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       55  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  34  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     57  33  63  41 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  33  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  31  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        55  33  62  40 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  34  63  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  33  64  39 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         56  33  61  37 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      56  34  61  41 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$

51







000
FXUS64 KLZK 151132 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE ABOVE 7 KNOTS BY MID DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AFTER 16/00Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND APPROPRIATE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND FLOW...SHOULD HAVE MORE AREAS OF FROST
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS PRODUCED TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
MID-SOUTH SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION.
FORECASTS LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WIND FIELDS ALL
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THIS REGION...AND OVERALL CONVECTION THAT IS PRODUCED
SHOULD BE WEAK.

55

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS
DIFFERING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. HAVE LEFT SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS
REACHED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 150904
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
404 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND APPROPRIATE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIGHT NEAR SURFACE WIND FLOW...SHOULD HAVE MORE AREAS OF FROST
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN WHAT WAS PRODUCED TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LATE
THURSDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
MID-SOUTH SOUTH...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION.
FORECASTS LAPSE RATES...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WIND FIELDS ALL
APPEAR TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT
AFFECTED THIS REGION...AND OVERALL CONVECTION THAT IS PRODUCED
SHOULD BE WEAK.

55

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE IS
DIFFERING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST. HAVE LEFT SMALL
CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST...UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY IS
REACHED.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  32  61  38 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         60  32  65  39 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       55  30  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  32  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  32  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     57  34  63  41 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      60  32  63  40 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  30  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        56  34  62  40 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     57  34  63  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  31  64  39 /   0   0  10  10
SEARCY AR         56  32  61  37 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      56  34  61  41 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-IZARD-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.


FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KLZK 150549 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1249 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
LESSEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SWITCHING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED EARLIER TO DROP LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAD LOWERED BELOW CRITERIA. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIN AND BREAK UP...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH...AROUND FREEZING CENTRAL
AREAS...WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...BUT SOME MIXING
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY LIMIT SOME AREAS DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING...NOT TO MENTION WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. HENCE A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER NORTHERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SW
AR...AND A FROST ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO AR OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS EAST. SUNNY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST AND BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT
IS WITH THE MIN TEMPERATURES AND A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL MIXED.
THIS WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE MARGINAL
AREAS OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE
VALUES THAT GENERALLY WENT UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.

WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE
MARGINAL AREAS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW 32...SO I AM NOT
PLANNING TO SCALE BACK THE EXTENT OF THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE I AM CONCERNED THAT
A NUMBER OF THE COUNTIES EAST OF METRO LITTLE ROCK TOWARD MEMPHIS
COULD SEE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 TONIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT I HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER
LONOKE...PRAIRIE...WOODRUFF...AND MONROE COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD START TO SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND BRING A GRADUAL
WARM UP BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOOKING ALOFT...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. I AM ANTICIPATING THAT A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW...I HAVE OPTED TO PUT SOME DECENT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A QUICK MOVG STORM SYS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON FRI
AND EARLY FRI NGT. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRI...BUT
THAT COULD BE OVERDONE AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYS. DRIER CONDS WL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE FA.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA AT SOME
POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS RMNS
FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL DATA
AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






000
FXUS64 KLZK 150201 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATED EARLIER TO DROP LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AS WINDS HAD LOWERED BELOW CRITERIA. TONIGHT WILL SEE THE
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIN AND BREAK UP...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
TO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH...AROUND FREEZING CENTRAL
AREAS...WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MAINLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...BUT SOME MIXING
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AND MAY LIMIT SOOM AREAS DROPPING TO BELOW
FREEZING...NOT TO MENTION WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. HENCE A FREEZE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER NORTHERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SW
AR...AND A FROST ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO AR OVERNIGHT...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS EAST. SUNNY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

.AVIATION...

CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING SKC CONDITIONS TO AREA TERMINALS
LATER...STARTING WITH KHRO/KBPK AOA 15/02Z WITH KLLQ CLEARING LAST
AOA 15/09Z. IN THE MEANTIME...MVFR CONDITIONS NOTED ALMOST
AREAWIDE ALONG WITH NW WINDS OF 10-15KTS GUSTING ABOVE 20KTS AT
TIMES. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER AOA
5-10KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST AND BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT
IS WITH THE MIN TEMPERATURES AND A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL MIXED.
THIS WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE MARGINAL
AREAS OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE
VALUES THAT GENERALLY WENT UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.

WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE
MARGINAL AREAS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW 32...SO I AM NOT
PLANNING TO SCALE BACK THE EXTENT OF THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE I AM CONCERNED THAT
A NUMBER OF THE COUNTIES EAST OF METRO LITTLE ROCK TOWARD MEMPHIS
COULD SEE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 TONIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT I HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER
LONOKE...PRAIRIE...WOODRUFF...AND MONROE COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD START TO SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND BRING A GRADUAL
WARM UP BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOOKING ALOFT...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. I AM ANTICIPATING THAT A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW...I HAVE OPTED TO PUT SOME DECENT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THUSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A QUICK MOVG STORM SYS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON FRI
AND EARLY FRI NGT. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRI...BUT
THAT COULD BE OVERDONE AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYS. DRIER CONDS WL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE FA.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA AT SOME
POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS RMNS
FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL DATA
AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  55  33  61 /  20   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         34  59  33  65 /  20   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       28  56  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  60  34  63 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  57  33  63 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  33  62 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      31  59  34  64 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  57  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        31  54  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  56  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  60  34  65 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         30  55  33  59 /  20   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      32  55  33  60 /  30   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-OUACHITA.

&&

$$


AVIATION...226










000
FXUS64 KLZK 142312
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
612 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING SKC CONDITIONS TO AREA TERMINALS
LATER...STARTING WITH KHRO/KBPK AOA 15/02Z WITH KLLQ CLEARING LAST
AOA 15/09Z. IN THE MEANTIME...MVFR CONDITIONS NOTED ALMOST
AREAWIDE ALONG WITH NW WINDS OF 10-15KTS GUSTING ABOVE 20KTS AT
TIMES. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LIGHTER AOA
5-10KTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST AND BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT
IS WITH THE MIN TEMPERATURES AND A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL MIXED.
THIS WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE MARGINAL
AREAS OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE
VALUES THAT GENERALLY WENT UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.

WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE
MARGINAL AREAS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW 32...SO I AM NOT
PLANNING TO SCALE BACK THE EXTENT OF THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE I AM CONCERNED THAT
A NUMBER OF THE COUNTIES EAST OF METRO LITTLE ROCK TOWARD MEMPHIS
COULD SEE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 TONIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT I HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER
LONOKE...PRAIRIE...WOODRUFF...AND MONROE COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD START TO SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND BRING A GRADUAL
WARM UP BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOOKING ALOFT...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. I AM ANTICIPATING THAT A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW...I HAVE OPTED TO PUT SOME DECENT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THUSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A QUICK MOVG STORM SYS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON FRI
AND EARLY FRI NGT. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRI...BUT
THAT COULD BE OVERDONE AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYS. DRIER CONDS WL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE FA.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA AT SOME
POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS RMNS
FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL DATA
AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  55  33  61 /  20   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         34  59  33  65 /  20   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       28  56  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  60  34  63 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  57  33  63 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  33  62 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      31  59  34  64 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  57  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        31  54  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  56  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  60  34  65 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         30  55  33  59 /  20   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      32  55  33  60 /  30   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-OUACHITA.

&&

$$


AVIATION...226







000
FXUS64 KLZK 141943
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...PUSHING THE PRECIP OFF TO THE EAST AND BRINGING MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE STATE. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT
IS WITH THE MIN TEMPERATURES AND A LATE SEASON FREEZE FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RATHER GUSTY OVERNIGHT...AND
THAT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY WELL MIXED.
THIS WILL INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING IN SOME OF THE MARGINAL
AREAS OF THE STATE...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE MORNING GUIDANCE
VALUES THAT GENERALLY WENT UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THOSE LOCATIONS.

WITH THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS IN THE
MARGINAL AREAS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS DIP BELOW 32...SO I AM NOT
PLANNING TO SCALE BACK THE EXTENT OF THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE I AM CONCERNED THAT
A NUMBER OF THE COUNTIES EAST OF METRO LITTLE ROCK TOWARD MEMPHIS
COULD SEE AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 TONIGHT.
CONSIDERING THAT I HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZE WARNING TO COVER
LONOKE...PRAIRIE...WOODRUFF...AND MONROE COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD START TO SLIDE TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND BRING A GRADUAL
WARM UP BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD START TO INCREASE...AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LOOKING ALOFT...THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME SWLY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. I AM ANTICIPATING THAT A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT
FROM THE LOW AND RIPPLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW...I HAVE OPTED TO PUT SOME DECENT
CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THUSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A QUICK MOVG STORM SYS WL BE WORKING ACRS THE MID SOUTH ON FRI
AND EARLY FRI NGT. KEPT LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR FRI...BUT
THAT COULD BE OVERDONE AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
THE SYS. DRIER CONDS WL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK RDG OF HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE FA.

ANOTHER SRN STREAM STORM SYS IS FCST TO AFFECT THE AREA AT SOME
POINT LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND/OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS RMNS
FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SYS COMPARED TO THE SLOWER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MODEL DATA
AND KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DATA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  55  33  61 /  20   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         34  59  33  65 /  20   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       28  56  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  60  34  63 /  10   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  57  33  63 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     35  55  33  62 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      31  59  34  64 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  57  32  62 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        31  54  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     34  56  33  62 /  30   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  60  34  65 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         30  55  33  59 /  20   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      32  55  33  60 /  30   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-OUACHITA.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...44







000
FXUS64 KLZK 141750
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...14/18Z TAF CYCLE

SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL CONT TO AFFECT CNTRL AND ERN AR THIS AFTN AS AN
UPR LVL TROF MOVES ACRS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WL
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WL BE NOTED ACRS THE FA
INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR VSBYS VCNTY OF THE HEAVIER
STORMS. CONDS WL IMPROVE TNGT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA...
WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING FM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUE. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A GRID UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR POPS AND WX. A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS ACROSS SRN MO...SE
KS...AND NW OK...AND LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS AND SFC TEMPS I
BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES. ELSEWHERE I UPDATED POPS AND WX A BIT TO REFLECT
ONGOING TRENDS.

ALSO...AM CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING THE FREEZE
WARNING TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF PULASKI CO. WILL HAVE
UPDATED INFO ON EVENING PACKAGE. 53

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 141731
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SENDING OUT A GRID UPDATE PRIMARILY FOR POPS AND WX. A RAIN AND
SNOW MIX HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS ACROSS SRN MO...SE
KS...AND NW OK...AND LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS AND SFC TEMPS I
BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES. ELSEWHERE I UPDATED POPS AND WX A BIT TO REFLECT
ONGOING TRENDS.

ALSO...AM CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF EXPANDING THE FREEZE
WARNING TONIGHT...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF PULASKI CO. WILL HAVE
UPDATED INFO ON EVENING PACKAGE. 53

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST SITES THROUGH 21Z. SFC WIND WILL
BECOME NWLY AT 15-25 KTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANALYZED AT
11Z FROM MOUNTAIN HOME...TO MENA.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     31  55  32  62 /  20   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         34  60  31  67 /  20   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       28  55  30  61 /  10   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    33  59  32  64 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  32  58  34  64 /  20   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     36  57  34  66 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      32  59  32  63 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  28  55  31  62 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        32  55  33  62 /  30   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     34  57  34  65 /  30   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   31  59  32  64 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         30  56  32  62 /  20   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      32  56  35  63 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KLZK 141121
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
621 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT MOST SITES THROUGH 21Z. SFC WIND WILL
BECOME NWLY AT 15-25 KTS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANALYZED AT
11Z FROM MOUNTAIN HOME...TO MENA.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  30  55  32 /  50  40   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  32  60  31 /  60  40   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  25  55  30 /  60  40   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  30  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  58  34 /  40  30   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  34  57  34 /  80  50   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  29  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  27  55  31 /  60  40   0   0
NEWPORT AR        59  32  55  33 /  50  40   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  34  57  34 /  70  40   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  29  59  32 /  40  20   0   0
SEARCY AR         60  32  56  32 /  40  30   0   0
STUTTGART AR      63  34  56  35 /  70  40   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KLZK 140911
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
411 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TRENDS INDICATED BY RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLIMING AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALSO AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW LEAVING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD...LAPSE RATES ASSOICATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL AFFECT NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE.
APPROPRIATE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE MILD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  30  55  32 /  50  40   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  32  60  31 /  60  40   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  25  55  30 /  60  40   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  30  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  58  34 /  40  30   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  34  57  34 /  80  50   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  29  59  32 /  40  30   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  27  55  31 /  60  40   0   0
NEWPORT AR        59  32  55  33 /  50  40   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  34  57  34 /  70  40   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  29  59  32 /  40  20   0   0
SEARCY AR         60  32  56  32 /  40  30   0   0
STUTTGART AR      63  34  56  35 /  70  40   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-JEFFERSON-
LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$

55






000
FXUS64 KLZK 140521
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1221 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
TSTM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS THROUGH 10Z. EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
ACROSS ALL SITES. SFC WIND WILL BECOME NWLY AT 15-25 KTS AFTER
FROPA.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN AR AT THIS TIME WITH EMBEDDED
SEVERE STORMS IN THE LINE OF STORMS. MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
POTENTIAL. WHILE ISOLATED ROTATION SHOWING WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
THIS LATE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT. EARLIER DID SEE ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF FLOODING. THE
COLD FRONT WAS STILL OVER EASTERN OK. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL NOT END
UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE STATE. WILL UPDATE FORECAST AS THE
STRONG STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES
WILL MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH BEHIND THE
FRONT. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. BRIEF CLEARING AT KHRO/KBPK WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH OTHER TAF SITES DEALING WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WILL SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE A STRONG LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN FROM OKLAHOMA FROM THE
WEST. TIMING MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT FIRST TAF SITE TO SEE
ACTIVITY WILL BE KHRO AOA 14/02Z WITH OTHER SITES FOLLOWING
SUIT...HAVE KPBF/KLLQ SEEING LINE OF STORMS LAST AOA 14/07-09Z.
STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH TS ACTIVITY. FROPA WILL OCCUR A FEW HOURS AFTER LINE OF
STORMS MOVES THROUGH. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS AREAWIDE...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE TROUGH AND JET STREAK
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...SPARKING OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWS A BATCH OF THESE STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 2
PM CDT...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREK NORTHEAST ACROSS
RUSSELLVILLE AND UP TO MOUNTAIN HOME. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
HEATING AND THEREFORE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...BUT AS THE TROUGH/JET
STREAK APPROACH...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AND FURTHER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THINK
THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
TODAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HAIL. CAPE PROFILES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION ALOFT. OF
COURSE THAT BEING SAID...SOUNDING PROFILES IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST
PARTS OF ARKANSAS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE PROFILES ALOFT SO A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL EXISTS THERE. ELSEWHERE WIND WILL BE THE
DOMINANT THREAT. WIND SHEAR IS DECENT...WITH 40-70KT OF SOUTHWEST
H85 FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO STRONG STORMS COULD EASILY
SURFACE DAMAGING WINDS. FINALLY...WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS WILL NOT BE ZERO...IT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE CONVECTION MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THE SAME THINGS WILL APPLY IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. ONE LAST NOTE ON CONVECTION RELATED ITEMS...AND THAT WOULD
BE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS A RICH PLUME OF GOMEX MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE LARGELY
PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY PROGRESS
TO THE EAST. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF TRAINING CELLS WITHIN ANY MCS
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE FOREGONE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME AS THE BEST THREATS APPEAR TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS CLOSELY THOUGH.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIMATOLOGY AFD SECTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED BELOW TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING TEMPERATURE RECORDS. LOOKING
AT THE CONUS...SUB-FREEZING AIR HAS PROGRESSED AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL COLORADO...NW KANSAS...AND WRN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE...STATISTICAL AND NUMERICAL ALIKE...SAYS AREAS OF
ARKANSAS TO THE NW OF THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR WILL FALL BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK BY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS AND THE CONSISTENCY OF
THESE FORECAST TEMPS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAVE HOISTED UP
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THAT CORRIDOR...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING
MARK AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IN READINGS AT/BELOW 32 IS NOT AS HIGH.
NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. HAVE
PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SAME
AIR MASS IN PLACE. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL LEAVE THE ISSUANCE OF
ANY FREEZE WARNINGS OR WATCHES TO FUTURE SHIFTS GIVEN THAT IT IS A
DAY 4 FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SWING DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN LARGELY CONDUCIVE TO SPLIT
FLOW OR RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN CLOSE TO OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS PREVAILING UPPER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

CLIMATE...

NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...AT SOME LOCATIONS...ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR
APRIL WILL BE CHALLENGED. BELOW IS A LIST OF MANY LOCATIONS THAT
WILL COME CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD LOWS AND/OR ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR
APRIL.

DISCLAIMER...JUST BECAUSE THESE NUMBERS ARE LISTED DOESN/T
NECESSARILY MEAN THAT THESE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN. THEY ARE JUST
PROVIDED AS A FRAME OF REFERENCE.

                  RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
LOCATION         APRIL 15TH   APRIL 16TH    ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD LOW
---------------------------------------------------------------------
---ARKADELPHIA      30 IN 1943   30 IN 1943    23 04/27/1910
BATESVILLE APRT  30 IN 2008   33 IN 1949    25 04/08/2007
BOONEVILLE       30 IN 2008   31 IN 1953    22
04/08/2007...04/09/2007 BRINKLEY         28 IN 1943   28 IN 1962
23 04/06/1937 CALICO ROCK      23 IN 1983   24 IN 1919    17
04/08/2007 CAMDEN           30 IN 1949   29 IN 1928    26 04/05/1920
CLARKSVILLE      24 IN 1983   27 IN 1983    20 04/01/1954
CONWAY           29 IN 1980   31 IN 1962    26 04/01/1924
DARDANELLE       29 IN 1983   28 IN 1983    24 04/11/1989
FLIPPIN          21 IN 1983   26 IN 1983    18 04/04/1987
FORDYCE          32 IN 2008   32 IN 1962    26 04/03/1975
GILBERT          24 IN 1983   23 IN 1962    16 04/08/2007
HARDY            30 IN 2008   35 IN 2008    23 04/08/2007
HARRISON         23 IN 1950   24 IN 1923    20
04/13/1957...04/14/1950...
    04/04/1904 HOT SPRGS APRT   30 IN 1983   31 IN 1983    24
04/07/1994...04/04/1987 HOT SPRINGS N P  30 IN 1893   30 IN 1928
24 04/08/2007 JACKSONVILLE     32 IN 2008   33 IN 1962    25
04/04/1987 LITTLE ROCK      33 IN 1983   33 IN 1962    28
04/08/2007...04/07/1971...
    04/05/1920...04/01/1886 MALVERN          29 IN 1983   27 IN
1983    24 04/08/2007...04/24/1902 MARSHALL         23 IN 1950   23
IN 1962    20 04/04/1975 MENA             28 IN 1983   30 IN 1983
22 04/04/2007 MONTICELLO       30 IN 1983   30 IN 1961    22
04/06/1971 MORRILTON        30 IN 1997   32 IN 1928    24
04/09/2007...04/08/2007 MOUNT IDA        25 IN 1943   26 IN 1949
20 04/04/1987 MOUNTAIN HOME    27 IN 1943   28 IN 1928    21
04/05/1920 NEWPORT          29 IN 1950   31 IN 1950    22 04/03/1901
N LITTLE ROCK    33 IN 1980   40 IN 1999    30
04/08/2007...04/07/2007...
    04/06/1982 PINE BLUFF       33 IN 1980   32 IN 1928    26
04/05/1996 RUSSELLVILLE     29 IN 1983   28 IN 1983    24 04/11/1989
SEARCY           30 IN 1983   29 IN 1928    20 04/19/1918
SHERIDAN         29 IN 1983   28 IN 1983    22 04/03/1975 STAR
CITY        33 IN 2008   33 IN 1983    25 04/04/1987
STUTTGART        31 IN 1943   31 IN 1962    26
04/05/2013...04/26/1936 STUTTGART APRT   37 IN 1943   41 IN 1996
30 04/08/2007...04/07/2007

AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE LATEST FREEZE IN
OVER THIRTY YEARS...AND ONE OF THE LATEST EVER RECORDED IN THE
SEASON. FOR EXAMPLE...IF FREEZES DO OCCUR AT LITTLE ROCK AND NORTH
LITTLE ROCK...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FREEZE SINCE 1983...AND THE 2ND
LATEST ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS. AT JACKSONVILLE...IT WOULD TIED
2008 FOR THE LATEST ON RECORD.

AT PINE BLUFF...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FREEZE SINCE 1928...BUT NOT
THE LATEST. THAT DISTICTION GOES TO A LATE WIDESPREAD FREEZE ON
APRIL 25TH 1910...WHEN NEARLY EVERY LOCATION IN THE STATE SAW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING...EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...PARTS OF THE SOUTH...AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  30  54  32 /  60  20   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  33  59  33 /  50  20   0   0
HARRISON AR       45  26  54  31 /  60  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  31  57  34 /  40  20   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  33  57  34 /  50  20   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     68  34  56  35 /  60  20   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      56  29  57  33 /  40  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  48  27  54  32 /  60  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        59  32  53  32 /  60  20   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     66  34  56  34 /  60  20   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  29  58  33 /  40  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         60  31  54  32 /  50  20   0   0
STUTTGART AR      63  33  54  34 /  60  20   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99







000
FXUS64 KLZK 140318 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1020 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN AR AT THIS TIME WITH EMBEDDED
SEVERE STORMS IN THE LINE OF STORMS. MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
POTENTIAL. WHILE ISOLATED ROTATION SHOWING WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS LINE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
THIS LATE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT. EARLIER DID SEE ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF FLOODING. THE
COLD FRONT WAS STILL OVER EASTERN OK. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL NOT END
UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE STATE. WILL UPDATE FORECAST AS THE
STRONG STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES
WILL MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH BEHIND THE
FRONT. (59)
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. BRIEF CLEARING AT KHRO/KBPK WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH OTHER TAF SITES DEALING WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WILL SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE A STRONG LINE OF STORMS MOVES IN FROM OKLAHOMA FROM THE
WEST. TIMING MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT FIRST TAF SITE TO SEE
ACTIVITY WILL BE KHRO AOA 14/02Z WITH OTHER SITES FOLLOWING
SUIT...HAVE KPBF/KLLQ SEEING LINE OF STORMS LAST AOA 14/07-09Z.
STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH TS ACTIVITY. FROPA WILL OCCUR A FEW HOURS AFTER LINE OF
STORMS MOVES THROUGH. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS AREAWIDE...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR THAT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY MORNING.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE TROUGH AND JET STREAK
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...SPARKING OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DOES SO. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWS A BATCH OF THESE STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 2
PM CDT...AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREK NORTHEAST ACROSS
RUSSELLVILLE AND UP TO MOUNTAIN HOME. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
HEATING AND THEREFORE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...BUT AS THE TROUGH/JET
STREAK APPROACH...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AND FURTHER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THINK
THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
TODAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HAIL. CAPE PROFILES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION ALOFT. OF
COURSE THAT BEING SAID...SOUNDING PROFILES IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST
PARTS OF ARKANSAS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE PROFILES ALOFT SO A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL EXISTS THERE. ELSEWHERE WIND WILL BE THE
DOMINANT THREAT. WIND SHEAR IS DECENT...WITH 40-70KT OF SOUTHWEST
H85 FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO STRONG STORMS COULD EASILY
SURFACE DAMAGING WINDS. FINALLY...WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS WILL NOT BE ZERO...IT WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH AT ALL.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE MORE CONVECTION MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THE SAME THINGS WILL APPLY IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. ONE LAST NOTE ON CONVECTION RELATED ITEMS...AND THAT WOULD
BE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS A RICH PLUME OF GOMEX MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE LARGELY
PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW...BUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD STEADILY PROGRESS
TO THE EAST. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF TRAINING CELLS WITHIN ANY MCS
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE FOREGONE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS TIME AS THE BEST THREATS APPEAR TO BE JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS CLOSELY THOUGH.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. A CLIMATOLOGY AFD SECTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED BELOW TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING TEMPERATURE RECORDS. LOOKING
AT THE CONUS...SUB-FREEZING AIR HAS PROGRESSED AS FAR SOUTH AS
CENTRAL COLORADO...NW KANSAS...AND WRN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE...STATISTICAL AND NUMERICAL ALIKE...SAYS AREAS OF
ARKANSAS TO THE NW OF THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR WILL FALL BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK BY TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THIS AND THE CONSISTENCY OF
THESE FORECAST TEMPS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAVE HOISTED UP
A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THAT CORRIDOR...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING
MARK AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IN READINGS AT/BELOW 32 IS NOT AS HIGH.
NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS...WHICH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. HAVE
PUT UP A FREEZE WATCH IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH THE SAME
AIR MASS IN PLACE. IT IS LIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN BUT WILL LEAVE THE ISSUANCE OF
ANY FREEZE WARNINGS OR WATCHES TO FUTURE SHIFTS GIVEN THAT IT IS A
DAY 4 FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM...AS AN UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SYSTEM. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SWING DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.

WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE PATTERN LARGELY CONDUCIVE TO SPLIT
FLOW OR RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN CLOSE TO OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS PREVAILING UPPER FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

CLIMATE...

NEAR-RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...AT SOME LOCATIONS...ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR
APRIL WILL BE CHALLENGED. BELOW IS A LIST OF MANY LOCATIONS THAT
WILL COME CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD LOWS AND/OR ALL-TIME RECORD LOWS FOR
APRIL.

DISCLAIMER...JUST BECAUSE THESE NUMBERS ARE LISTED DOESN/T
NECESSARILY MEAN THAT THESE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN. THEY ARE JUST
PROVIDED AS A FRAME OF REFERENCE.

                  RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
LOCATION         APRIL 15TH   APRIL 16TH    ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD LOW
---------------------------------------------------------------------
---ARKADELPHIA      30 IN 1943   30 IN 1943    23 04/27/1910
BATESVILLE APRT  30 IN 2008   33 IN 1949    25 04/08/2007
BOONEVILLE       30 IN 2008   31 IN 1953    22
04/08/2007...04/09/2007 BRINKLEY         28 IN 1943   28 IN 1962
23 04/06/1937 CALICO ROCK      23 IN 1983   24 IN 1919    17
04/08/2007 CAMDEN           30 IN 1949   29 IN 1928    26 04/05/1920
CLARKSVILLE      24 IN 1983   27 IN 1983    20 04/01/1954
CONWAY           29 IN 1980   31 IN 1962    26 04/01/1924
DARDANELLE       29 IN 1983   28 IN 1983    24 04/11/1989
FLIPPIN          21 IN 1983   26 IN 1983    18 04/04/1987
FORDYCE          32 IN 2008   32 IN 1962    26 04/03/1975
GILBERT          24 IN 1983   23 IN 1962    16 04/08/2007
HARDY            30 IN 2008   35 IN 2008    23 04/08/2007
HARRISON         23 IN 1950   24 IN 1923    20
04/13/1957...04/14/1950...
    04/04/1904 HOT SPRGS APRT   30 IN 1983   31 IN 1983    24
04/07/1994...04/04/1987 HOT SPRINGS N P  30 IN 1893   30 IN 1928
24 04/08/2007 JACKSONVILLE     32 IN 2008   33 IN 1962    25
04/04/1987 LITTLE ROCK      33 IN 1983   33 IN 1962    28
04/08/2007...04/07/1971...
    04/05/1920...04/01/1886 MALVERN          29 IN 1983   27 IN
1983    24 04/08/2007...04/24/1902 MARSHALL         23 IN 1950   23
IN 1962    20 04/04/1975 MENA             28 IN 1983   30 IN 1983
22 04/04/2007 MONTICELLO       30 IN 1983   30 IN 1961    22
04/06/1971 MORRILTON        30 IN 1997   32 IN 1928    24
04/09/2007...04/08/2007 MOUNT IDA        25 IN 1943   26 IN 1949
20 04/04/1987 MOUNTAIN HOME    27 IN 1943   28 IN 1928    21
04/05/1920 NEWPORT          29 IN 1950   31 IN 1950    22 04/03/1901
N LITTLE ROCK    33 IN 1980   40 IN 1999    30
04/08/2007...04/07/2007...
    04/06/1982 PINE BLUFF       33 IN 1980   32 IN 1928    26
04/05/1996 RUSSELLVILLE     29 IN 1983   28 IN 1983    24 04/11/1989
SEARCY           30 IN 1983   29 IN 1928    20 04/19/1918
SHERIDAN         29 IN 1983   28 IN 1983    22 04/03/1975 STAR
CITY        33 IN 2008   33 IN 1983    25 04/04/1987
STUTTGART        31 IN 1943   31 IN 1962    26
04/05/2013...04/26/1936 STUTTGART APRT   37 IN 1943   41 IN 1996
30 04/08/2007...04/07/2007

AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE LATEST FREEZE IN
OVER THIRTY YEARS...AND ONE OF THE LATEST EVER RECORDED IN THE
SEASON. FOR EXAMPLE...IF FREEZES DO OCCUR AT LITTLE ROCK AND NORTH
LITTLE ROCK...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FREEZE SINCE 1983...AND THE 2ND
LATEST ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCATIONS. AT JACKSONVILLE...IT WOULD TIED
2008 FOR THE LATEST ON RECORD.

AT PINE BLUFF...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST FREEZE SINCE 1928...BUT NOT
THE LATEST. THAT DISTICTION GOES TO A LATE WIDESPREAD FREEZE ON
APRIL 25TH 1910...WHEN NEARLY EVERY LOCATION IN THE STATE SAW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR FREEZING...EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...PARTS OF THE SOUTH...AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     54  56  30  54 / 100  60  20   0
CAMDEN AR         63  66  33  59 / 100  50  20   0
HARRISON AR       43  45  26  54 / 100  60  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  60  31  57 / 100  40  20   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  60  62  33  57 / 100  50  20   0
MONTICELLO AR     65  68  34  56 / 100  60  20   0
MOUNT IDA AR      53  56  29  57 / 100  40  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  48  27  54 / 100  60  10   0
NEWPORT AR        56  59  32  53 / 100  60  20   0
PINE BLUFF AR     63  66  34  56 / 100  60  20   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   52  55  29  58 / 100  40  10   0
SEARCY AR         58  60  31  54 / 100  50  20   0
STUTTGART AR      62  63  33  54 / 100  60  20   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-
NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.


FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WOODRUFF.

&&

$$


AVIATION...226











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